Tuesday's October CPI report will be published without a year over year inflation figure because the BLS never collected October 2025 prices during last year's federal shutdown.
The big picture: The missing baseline means BLS will report only the month over month change. The consensus forecast is 0.3% headline and 0.2% core, down from September's 0.6% monthly jump, the biggest since April.
- September CPI ran at 3.7% on the year, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 2.6%. Without an annual comparison for October, markets and the Fed will have to weight the monthly number more heavily.
Between the lines: The data gap creates an unusual situation for the Federal Reserve, which meets in December. Fed funds futures already price in about 80% odds of another rate hike, and a hot monthly number could push that higher even without the usual annual benchmark.
What's next: November CPI in December will restore the annual comparison because the BLS did collect November 2025 prices. But the October gap may persist in some analytical models for months.
Why it matters: Inflation is the number one issue for household budgets, and the annual rate is the figure people see on every news chyron. Its absence Tuesday could leave both traders and consumers guessing about the real trend.
