World

Flavio Bolsonaro leads Lula into Brazil's October 25 runoff vote

The senator took 47% of valid votes to the president's 45.1% with 99.9% counted, short of the majority he needed to win outright.

Bar chart of Brazil's first-round presidential vote share: Flavio Bolsonaro 47.0%, Lula 45.1%, Renan Santos 2.2%, Ronaldo Caiado 2.1%
Data: Superior Electoral Court via The Guardian; Chart: 1% Better

Brazil's presidential race goes to a second round on October 25 after Flavio Bolsonaro beat President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva but missed an outright majority.

By the numbers: Bolsonaro, 45, took 47% of valid votes to Lula's 45.1% with 99.9% counted, or 56.1 million votes to 53.8 million. A candidate has to clear 50% to win in the first round.

  • "Lula has fought seven presidential elections. He's worried about power. I am worried about the future of Brazil," Bolsonaro told supporters in the capital, Brasilia.

The backstory: Bolsonaro is the son of Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula. Flavio hopes winning the presidency will let him free his father.

  • Lula, 80, is seeking a historic fourth non-consecutive term after winning in 2002, 2006 and 2022.

Zoom in: Brazil's right ran up legislative wins too: 34 of the 54 senators elected came from the right or far right, and Jair Bolsonaro's son Carlos and wife Michelle both won senate seats.

  • Tarcisio de Freitas, Jair Bolsonaro's former infrastructure minister, was reelected governor of Sao Paulo, Brazil's most populous and economically important state.

What they're saying: "We have just had a lesson in Brazilian democracy. The result is often unexpected," Lula said in Sao Paulo, adding that he had been convinced he would win in the first round.

What's next: The runoff is October 25. Bolsonaro enters as the favorite and stands to gain votes from rightwing candidates Renan Santos, who won 2.2%, and Ronaldo Caiado, who secured 2.1%.

Why it matters: Nearly 159 million voters are deciding whether Latin America's largest democracy returns to Bolsonaro rule four years after a failed attempt to overturn an election, and Lula's allies warn that Washington may dispute a Lula win.

Go deeper: The Guardian

Also: CNBC

  • brazil
  • elections
  • lula
  • bolsonaro

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