World Collapse Expert: We’re Entering The Most Dangerous Global Power Vacuum Ever

These conversations aren't always easy, These conversations aren't always easy, but nonetheless, they are important. So, but nonetheless, they are important. So, but nonetheless, they are important. So, every single year, Professor Ian Bremer, every single year, Professor Ian Bremer, every single year, Professor Ian Bremer, who's one of the world's leading who's one of the world's leading who's one of the world's leading political scientists, produces this risk political scientists, produces this risk political scientists, produces this risk report, and it highlights the top 10 report, and it highlights the top 10 report, and it highlights the top 10 biggest risks that everybody should be biggest risks that everybody should be biggest risks that everybody should be thinking about. And today, he's going to thinking about. And today, he's going to thinking about. And today, he's going to talk to me about the three that matter talk to me about the three that matter talk to me about the three that matter the most. So, he predicts that a US the most. So, he predicts that a US the most. So, he predicts that a US political revolution is on its way. the political revolution is on its way. the political revolution is on its way. the US has become the biggest driver of US has become the biggest driver of US has become the biggest driver of geopolitical uncertainty in the world geopolitical uncertainty in the world geopolitical uncertainty in the world and in my view Trump will fail. and in my view Trump will fail. and in my view Trump will fail. >> And he also says that the other thing >> And he also says that the other thing >> And he also says that the other thing everybody needs to be talking about and everybody needs to be talking about and everybody needs to be talking about and aware of is what's really playing out aware of is what's really playing out aware of is what's really playing out with AI behind the scenes. with AI behind the scenes. with AI behind the scenes. >> They created a model which is so >> They created a model which is so >> They created a model which is so powerful that they couldn't release it powerful that they couldn't release it powerful that they couldn't release it because it would have been an immediate because it would have been an immediate because it would have been an immediate systemic risk to the global economy and systemic risk to the global economy and systemic risk to the global economy and our security and artificial intelligence our security and artificial intelligence our security and artificial intelligence is eating its users. and we can talk is eating its users. and we can talk is eating its users. and we can talk about that. about that. about that. >> And lastly, I want to end on a point of >> And lastly, I want to end on a point of >> And lastly, I want to end on a point of optimism. Can we take this craziness and optimism. Can we take this craziness and optimism. Can we take this craziness and turn it into a utopia with realistic turn it into a utopia with realistic turn it into a utopia with realistic solutions? solutions? solutions? This is super interesting to me. My team This is super interesting to me. My team This is super interesting to me. My team given me this report to show me how many given me this report to show me how many given me this report to show me how many of you that watch this show subscribe. of you that watch this show subscribe. of you that watch this show subscribe. And some of you have told us according And some of you have told us according And some of you have told us according to this that you are unsubscribed from to this that you are unsubscribed from to this that you are unsubscribed from the channel randomly. So, favor to ask the channel randomly. So, favor to ask the channel randomly. So, favor to ask all of you. 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Ian Bremer, what is this document that I Ian Bremer, what is this document that I have in front of me here? have in front of me here? have in front of me here? >> This is our top risk report. We put it >> This is our top risk report. We put it >> This is our top risk report. We put it out at the beginning of every year. try out at the beginning of every year. try out at the beginning of every year. try to help people around the world to help people around the world to help people around the world understand the risk environment understand the risk environment understand the risk environment globally. globally. globally. >> So for the last 30 years your firm has >> So for the last 30 years your firm has >> So for the last 30 years your firm has been trying to understand the world to been trying to understand the world to been trying to understand the world to help make better decisions based on the help make better decisions based on the help make better decisions based on the big picture of what's happening big picture of what's happening big picture of what's happening geopolitically. geopolitically. geopolitically. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> And every year your firm releases this >> And every year your firm releases this >> And every year your firm releases this top risk report. top risk report. top risk report. >> The 2026 one appears to be pretty >> The 2026 one appears to be pretty >> The 2026 one appears to be pretty prophetic because a lot of things that prophetic because a lot of things that prophetic because a lot of things that you list as the top risks are playing you list as the top risks are playing you list as the top risks are playing out before our eyes. For anyone that out before our eyes. For anyone that out before our eyes. For anyone that hasn't read this report, what are the hasn't read this report, what are the hasn't read this report, what are the most important subjects? You wrote this most important subjects? You wrote this most important subjects? You wrote this in January. We're now sat here in April, in January. We're now sat here in April, in January. We're now sat here in April, I believe. I believe. I believe. >> What are the most important subjects of >> What are the most important subjects of >> What are the most important subjects of the top 10 risks that you think we the top 10 risks that you think we the top 10 risks that you think we should talk about today? I think that should talk about today? I think that should talk about today? I think that there are three that are really big. Um, there are three that are really big. Um, there are three that are really big. Um, the first is that the United States has the first is that the United States has the first is that the United States has become the biggest driver of risk, the become the biggest driver of risk, the become the biggest driver of risk, the biggest driver of geopolitical biggest driver of geopolitical biggest driver of geopolitical uncertainty in the world. And we see uncertainty in the world. And we see uncertainty in the world. And we see that with the tariffs. We see that with that with the tariffs. We see that with that with the tariffs. We see that with Venezuela. We see it with Greenland. We Venezuela. We see it with Greenland. We Venezuela. We see it with Greenland. We see it with Iran. I mean, if there was see it with Iran. I mean, if there was see it with Iran. I mean, if there was that level of uncertainty in a smaller that level of uncertainty in a smaller that level of uncertainty in a smaller political system, and that happens all political system, and that happens all political system, and that happens all the time, we wouldn't care as much the time, we wouldn't care as much the time, we wouldn't care as much because the global impact would not because the global impact would not because the global impact would not matter. But everyone out there is matter. But everyone out there is matter. But everyone out there is affected by even small changes in the affected by even small changes in the affected by even small changes in the United States. Suddenly, big changes in United States. Suddenly, big changes in United States. Suddenly, big changes in the United States. The Americans are the United States. The Americans are the United States. The Americans are saying, "We no longer want to play by saying, "We no longer want to play by saying, "We no longer want to play by the rules that we set up historically. the rules that we set up historically. the rules that we set up historically. We don't want the free trade system that We don't want the free trade system that We don't want the free trade system that we put together. We don't want to be the we put together. We don't want to be the we put together. We don't want to be the global policeman that is paying for the global policeman that is paying for the global policeman that is paying for the collective security. We don't want the collective security. We don't want the collective security. We don't want the open borders that used to welcome so open borders that used to welcome so open borders that used to welcome so many people from around the world. We many people from around the world. We many people from around the world. We want a very different set of rules. It's want a very different set of rules. It's want a very different set of rules. It's the American system is not being the American system is not being the American system is not being challenged by the Chinese saying we challenged by the Chinese saying we challenged by the Chinese saying we don't want the Americans themselves and don't want the Americans themselves and don't want the Americans themselves and the leadership are saying we refuse to the leadership are saying we refuse to the leadership are saying we refuse to be the leader that we used to be. be the leader that we used to be. be the leader that we used to be. >> So that's number one. Yeah, that is >> So that's number one. Yeah, that is >> So that's number one. Yeah, that is number one. number one. number one. >> And this is a critical risk. >> And this is a critical risk. >> And this is a critical risk. >> That is a critical risk. That's but it's >> That is a critical risk. That's but it's >> That is a critical risk. That's but it's the most important without any question. the most important without any question. the most important without any question. >> And again, I say critical in terms of it >> And again, I say critical in terms of it >> And again, I say critical in terms of it is happening right now. It is is happening right now. It is is happening right now. It is overwhelmingly likely. It's overwhelmingly likely. It's overwhelmingly likely. It's overdetermined. Um and the impact is overdetermined. Um and the impact is overdetermined. Um and the impact is massive. So there's no way you could massive. So there's no way you could massive. So there's no way you could look at the geopolitical order today and look at the geopolitical order today and look at the geopolitical order today and not say this is the most important thing not say this is the most important thing not say this is the most important thing that is not just driving headlines but that is not just driving headlines but that is not just driving headlines but that's creating real movement in how the that's creating real movement in how the that's creating real movement in how the global economy works, how global global economy works, how global global economy works, how global politics works, global security, politics works, global security, politics works, global security, everything is driven by this change. everything is driven by this change. everything is driven by this change. >> And what's the second one? >> And what's the second one? >> And what's the second one? >> The second one is the big question of >> The second one is the big question of >> The second one is the big question of how the second most powerful country in how the second most powerful country in how the second most powerful country in the world is responding to all of that. the world is responding to all of that. the world is responding to all of that. Now we in the top risks piece talked Now we in the top risks piece talked Now we in the top risks piece talked about overpowered. Overpowered being the about overpowered. Overpowered being the about overpowered. Overpowered being the global energy dynamic. How China has global energy dynamic. How China has global energy dynamic. How China has been working to build the most effective been working to build the most effective been working to build the most effective electric vehicles all over the world at electric vehicles all over the world at electric vehicles all over the world at scale and the batteries all over the scale and the batteries all over the scale and the batteries all over the world at scale and the critical minerals world at scale and the critical minerals world at scale and the critical minerals in rare earths for decades now. not just in rare earths for decades now. not just in rare earths for decades now. not just having access so they can exploit them, having access so they can exploit them, having access so they can exploit them, but also so that they can reprocess but also so that they can reprocess but also so that they can reprocess them. them. them. >> For anyone that doesn't know what >> For anyone that doesn't know what >> For anyone that doesn't know what critical minerals are, critical minerals are, critical minerals are, >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> and how important they are to our >> and how important they are to our >> and how important they are to our everyday lives, could you give us some everyday lives, could you give us some everyday lives, could you give us some color there? color there? color there? >> Sure. We're talking about all of these >> Sure. We're talking about all of these >> Sure. We're talking about all of these things that you take out of the ground, things that you take out of the ground, things that you take out of the ground, whether it's lithium, antimony, whether it's lithium, antimony, whether it's lithium, antimony, >> which is in all these devices, >> which is in all these devices, >> which is in all these devices, >> in every device, in your car battery, >> in every device, in your car battery, >> in every device, in your car battery, it's in your missile systems and your it's in your missile systems and your it's in your missile systems and your advanced weaponry that keeps you safe at advanced weaponry that keeps you safe at advanced weaponry that keeps you safe at home or allows you to go to war against home or allows you to go to war against home or allows you to go to war against somebody. I mean, you can't have an somebody. I mean, you can't have an somebody. I mean, you can't have an advanced economy without critical advanced economy without critical advanced economy without critical minerals and rare earths. and and the minerals and rare earths. and and the minerals and rare earths. and and the Chinese have been investing at scale Chinese have been investing at scale Chinese have been investing at scale globally in that capability for decades globally in that capability for decades globally in that capability for decades now, thinking long term. And a lot of now, thinking long term. And a lot of now, thinking long term. And a lot of the rest of us have not been thinking the rest of us have not been thinking the rest of us have not been thinking long term. We're like just in time, long term. We're like just in time, long term. We're like just in time, globalization. How do we make the most globalization. How do we make the most globalization. How do we make the most money now for our next quarterly return? money now for our next quarterly return? money now for our next quarterly return? And that reality is making China not a And that reality is making China not a And that reality is making China not a better economy today, but it's setting better economy today, but it's setting better economy today, but it's setting them up for a much stronger long-term them up for a much stronger long-term them up for a much stronger long-term trajectory. So, as a risk, you're going trajectory. So, as a risk, you're going trajectory. So, as a risk, you're going to ask me to do this. It is not as to ask me to do this. It is not as to ask me to do this. It is not as critical as the US political revolution critical as the US political revolution critical as the US political revolution because this is focusing on 2026 and because this is focusing on 2026 and because this is focusing on 2026 and China is playing out over a longer China is playing out over a longer China is playing out over a longer period of time. But it is absolutely period of time. But it is absolutely period of time. But it is absolutely severe because the Chinese understand severe because the Chinese understand severe because the Chinese understand that long-term that long-term that long-term as countries are saying the Americans as countries are saying the Americans as countries are saying the Americans are less predictable and we're more are less predictable and we're more are less predictable and we're more vulnerable to their sudden changes in vulnerable to their sudden changes in vulnerable to their sudden changes in decisions. Many more countries are decisions. Many more countries are decisions. Many more countries are saying well we want to hedge and do more saying well we want to hedge and do more saying well we want to hedge and do more with the Chinese and those decisions with the Chinese and those decisions with the Chinese and those decisions really matter. If this continues, if really matter. If this continues, if really matter. If this continues, if this direction of travel continues, what this direction of travel continues, what this direction of travel continues, what happens next in terms of global order, happens next in terms of global order, happens next in terms of global order, in terms of the Middle East, in terms of in terms of the Middle East, in terms of in terms of the Middle East, in terms of all of these things we've talked about, all of these things we've talked about, all of these things we've talked about, >> Trump will fail. Um, and and I think >> Trump will fail. Um, and and I think >> Trump will fail. Um, and and I think that the level of policy incompetence that the level of policy incompetence that the level of policy incompetence and unwillingness to take on expertise and unwillingness to take on expertise and unwillingness to take on expertise is ensuring that it will fail. He's is ensuring that it will fail. He's is ensuring that it will fail. He's quite unpopular on so many issues right quite unpopular on so many issues right quite unpopular on so many issues right now. He's going to lose in a big way in now. He's going to lose in a big way in now. He's going to lose in a big way in the midterms coming up in November. And the midterms coming up in November. And the midterms coming up in November. And that will make him look like a lame that will make him look like a lame that will make him look like a lame duck. and Republicans will start to duck. and Republicans will start to duck. and Republicans will start to think about their own futures as opposed think about their own futures as opposed think about their own futures as opposed to holding on to this 80-year-old guy. to holding on to this 80-year-old guy. to holding on to this 80-year-old guy. Having said that, we will not have Having said that, we will not have Having said that, we will not have resolved these underlying challenges for resolved these underlying challenges for resolved these underlying challenges for average Americans. So, there will still average Americans. So, there will still average Americans. So, there will still be a demand for a political revolution be a demand for a political revolution be a demand for a political revolution in the United States. The question will in the United States. The question will in the United States. The question will be will the next person that comes and be will the next person that comes and be will the next person that comes and captures that are they going to be captures that are they going to be captures that are they going to be focused on themselves or focused on the focused on themselves or focused on the focused on themselves or focused on the country? Right? that Trump actually country? Right? that Trump actually country? Right? that Trump actually identified the symptoms and was able to identified the symptoms and was able to identified the symptoms and was able to benefit as a political entrepreneur benefit as a political entrepreneur benefit as a political entrepreneur twice from getting elected in free and twice from getting elected in free and twice from getting elected in free and fair elections. Right. Mostly the fair elections. Right. Mostly the fair elections. Right. Mostly the reality is a future person. We we're in reality is a future person. We we're in reality is a future person. We we're in New York right now. Zoran Mdani, a New York right now. Zoran Mdani, a New York right now. Zoran Mdani, a democratic socialist, is the mayor of democratic socialist, is the mayor of democratic socialist, is the mayor of New York City, which is like the capital New York City, which is like the capital New York City, which is like the capital of global capitalism and finance in the of global capitalism and finance in the of global capitalism and finance in the world. What does that tell you? That world. What does that tell you? That world. What does that tell you? That tells you that there's still a demand tells you that there's still a demand tells you that there's still a demand for something very different. And we for something very different. And we for something very different. And we don't know is it going to come from the don't know is it going to come from the don't know is it going to come from the left or the right, but we know that that left or the right, but we know that that left or the right, but we know that that level of uncertainty is growing. And level of uncertainty is growing. And level of uncertainty is growing. And it's not just growing in the United it's not just growing in the United it's not just growing in the United States. It's growing in the global States. It's growing in the global States. It's growing in the global order. Because if the Americans are no order. Because if the Americans are no order. Because if the Americans are no longer willing to act as the global longer willing to act as the global longer willing to act as the global leader, but no one else is capable of leader, but no one else is capable of leader, but no one else is capable of filling those shoes, you don't have a G7 filling those shoes, you don't have a G7 filling those shoes, you don't have a G7 or a G20 where governments come together or a G20 where governments come together or a G20 where governments come together and agree on the rules of the road. You and agree on the rules of the road. You and agree on the rules of the road. You have a G0, an absence of global have a G0, an absence of global have a G0, an absence of global leadership, where people, the powerful, leadership, where people, the powerful, leadership, where people, the powerful, make the rules that are useful to them make the rules that are useful to them make the rules that are useful to them and the weak have to accept that, have and the weak have to accept that, have and the weak have to accept that, have to find a way to live under that. That to find a way to live under that. That to find a way to live under that. That that's where we're heading. There was a that's where we're heading. There was a that's where we're heading. There was a Yale poll in April 2026 that said Camala Yale poll in April 2026 that said Camala Yale poll in April 2026 that said Camala Harris is leading the overall Democratic Harris is leading the overall Democratic Harris is leading the overall Democratic field with 20% narrowly edging out Gavin field with 20% narrowly edging out Gavin field with 20% narrowly edging out Gavin Newsome at 19% and Pete Bhajed at 14% Newsome at 19% and Pete Bhajed at 14% Newsome at 19% and Pete Bhajed at 14% with AOC at 13%. with AOC at 13%. with AOC at 13%. Means literally nothing to me. You know, Means literally nothing to me. You know, Means literally nothing to me. You know, I think it was Jim Carville, the great I think it was Jim Carville, the great I think it was Jim Carville, the great um Democratic political strategist that um Democratic political strategist that um Democratic political strategist that was talking about November. He said, was talking about November. He said, was talking about November. He said, "You know what the Democrats need to do? "You know what the Democrats need to do? "You know what the Democrats need to do? They need to all get on a plane and go They need to all get on a plane and go They need to all get on a plane and go to Turks and Caos until after the to Turks and Caos until after the to Turks and Caos until after the election. Say nothing. be absent. Just election. Say nothing. be absent. Just election. Say nothing. be absent. Just do not be and allow it's it's like um do not be and allow it's it's like um do not be and allow it's it's like um you know the SunSu it's like when your you know the SunSu it's like when your you know the SunSu it's like when your when your opponent is making mistakes when your opponent is making mistakes when your opponent is making mistakes stay out of their way. stay out of their way. stay out of their way. >> When you say the election, do you mean >> When you say the election, do you mean >> When you say the election, do you mean the midterm election? the midterm election? the midterm election? >> Midterm election. Yeah. Yeah. So for now >> Midterm election. Yeah. Yeah. So for now >> Midterm election. Yeah. Yeah. So for now there there's nothing happening except there there's nothing happening except there there's nothing happening except Trump and the reaction to Trump. Then Trump and the reaction to Trump. Then Trump and the reaction to Trump. Then after that we have a two-year long god after that we have a two-year long god after that we have a two-year long god god help us uh election in the United god help us uh election in the United god help us uh election in the United States. billions of dollars will be States. billions of dollars will be States. billions of dollars will be spent and people will have far too much spent and people will have far too much spent and people will have far too much information about far too many of these information about far too many of these information about far too many of these people. Then we can have a conversation. people. Then we can have a conversation. people. Then we can have a conversation. It is too early to talk about 2028 right It is too early to talk about 2028 right It is too early to talk about 2028 right now. now. now. >> I have to ask you then what on earth is >> I have to ask you then what on earth is >> I have to ask you then what on earth is going on? going on? going on? >> I wonder when we're going to get there. >> I wonder when we're going to get there. >> I wonder when we're going to get there. We got this big map in front of us here. We got this big map in front of us here. We got this big map in front of us here. We haven't even touched the Middle East. We haven't even touched the Middle East. We haven't even touched the Middle East. We literally haven't touched it. We literally haven't touched it. We literally haven't touched it. >> What is going on? Like really take me >> What is going on? Like really take me >> What is going on? Like really take me back to the beginning. What did Trump back to the beginning. What did Trump back to the beginning. What did Trump think was going to happen? How is this think was going to happen? How is this think was going to happen? How is this linked to Venezuela? Why would he do linked to Venezuela? Why would he do linked to Venezuela? Why would he do this after saying that he was the this after saying that he was the this after saying that he was the president that was going to stop all the president that was going to stop all the president that was going to stop all the wars? What is the big picture here? wars? What is the big picture here? wars? What is the big picture here? >> And literally one of the eight wars that >> And literally one of the eight wars that >> And literally one of the eight wars that he said that he had stopped was with he said that he had stopped was with he said that he had stopped was with Iran. Iran. Iran. >> This was not what he was voted in on. >> This was not what he was voted in on. >> This was not what he was voted in on. >> He was voted in, he ended the war in >> He was voted in, he ended the war in >> He was voted in, he ended the war in Afghanistan. I mean, he cut the deal Afghanistan. I mean, he cut the deal Afghanistan. I mean, he cut the deal with the Taliban. Was it a great deal? with the Taliban. Was it a great deal? with the Taliban. Was it a great deal? Yeah, for the Taliban it was pretty Yeah, for the Taliban it was pretty Yeah, for the Taliban it was pretty good. But it got the Americans out. 20 good. But it got the Americans out. 20 good. But it got the Americans out. 20 years, a trillion dollars fought on the years, a trillion dollars fought on the years, a trillion dollars fought on the backs of the Afghan people and of backs of the Afghan people and of backs of the Afghan people and of Americans, not wealthy Americans, not Americans, not wealthy Americans, not Americans, not wealthy Americans, not people like Trump that could find a way people like Trump that could find a way people like Trump that could find a way out of service, but poor Americans out of service, but poor Americans out of service, but poor Americans >> and Europeans. >> and Europeans. >> and Europeans. >> Yeah. And Europeans who fought side by >> Yeah. And Europeans who fought side by >> Yeah. And Europeans who fought side by side with the Americans when the side with the Americans when the side with the Americans when the Americans asked them to. almost all of Americans asked them to. almost all of Americans asked them to. almost all of them sending troops and many of them them sending troops and many of them them sending troops and many of them wounded and dying in the same numbers, wounded and dying in the same numbers, wounded and dying in the same numbers, the same percentages, just as courageous the same percentages, just as courageous the same percentages, just as courageous as the Americans were, right? So, as the Americans were, right? So, as the Americans were, right? So, Americans wanted an end to that. Americans wanted an end to that. Americans wanted an end to that. Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, what the Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, what the Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, what the hell are you guys doing? We're not hell are you guys doing? We're not hell are you guys doing? We're not benefiting that. Stop it. Trump stopped benefiting that. Stop it. Trump stopped benefiting that. Stop it. Trump stopped it. So, why did he do this? it. So, why did he do this? it. So, why did he do this? >> Why did he do this? >> Why did he do this? >> Why did he do this? >> Why did he do this? I think there are >> Why did he do this? I think there are >> Why did he do this? I think there are three reasons why he did it. I'll take three reasons why he did it. I'll take three reasons why he did it. I'll take you through. First reason you said you through. First reason you said you through. First reason you said Venezuela, not on this map. Shouldn't be Venezuela, not on this map. Shouldn't be Venezuela, not on this map. Shouldn't be relevant to this map. Turns out it's relevant to this map. Turns out it's relevant to this map. Turns out it's relevant to this map. Trump had plans to relevant to this map. Trump had plans to relevant to this map. Trump had plans to take out Maduro. take out Maduro. take out Maduro. He's got a lot of people inside his He's got a lot of people inside his He's got a lot of people inside his administration that see this guy as a administration that see this guy as a administration that see this guy as a real problem. And by the way, a problem real problem. And by the way, a problem real problem. And by the way, a problem for the region. 8 million Venezuelan for the region. 8 million Venezuelan for the region. 8 million Venezuelan refugees destabilizing the region. Lots refugees destabilizing the region. Lots refugees destabilizing the region. Lots of drug export destabilizing the region. of drug export destabilizing the region. of drug export destabilizing the region. So he had been planning to do something. So he had been planning to do something. So he had been planning to do something. >> Was it also linked to oil? it was >> Was it also linked to oil? it was >> Was it also linked to oil? it was relevant. They have the world's largest relevant. They have the world's largest relevant. They have the world's largest oil reserves. It is going to take far oil reserves. It is going to take far oil reserves. It is going to take far more years than Trump will be in office more years than Trump will be in office more years than Trump will be in office to make that meaningful. So, it sounds to make that meaningful. So, it sounds to make that meaningful. So, it sounds good from a branding perspective and good from a branding perspective and good from a branding perspective and you're going to see a few hundred you're going to see a few hundred you're going to see a few hundred thousand more barrels a day, but it's thousand more barrels a day, but it's thousand more barrels a day, but it's it's going to be years. If you saw that it's going to be years. If you saw that it's going to be years. If you saw that um testimony by the CEO of Exxon Mobile um testimony by the CEO of Exxon Mobile um testimony by the CEO of Exxon Mobile who said, you know, Venezuela is not who said, you know, Venezuela is not who said, you know, Venezuela is not investable today and Trump was angry at investable today and Trump was angry at investable today and Trump was angry at him and all the other energy CEOs like, him and all the other energy CEOs like, him and all the other energy CEOs like, "Thank you for saying that. We're not "Thank you for saying that. We're not "Thank you for saying that. We're not saying anything like him. Look at him. saying anything like him. Look at him. saying anything like him. Look at him. Look at him. Not much courage among Look at him. Not much courage among Look at him. Not much courage among those CEOs publicly. So the oil is a those CEOs publicly. So the oil is a those CEOs publicly. So the oil is a great headline for Trump. It doesn't great headline for Trump. It doesn't great headline for Trump. It doesn't matter much for Trump's presidency as we matter much for Trump's presidency as we matter much for Trump's presidency as we know. know. know. >> Just to get some color on that. Is that >> Just to get some color on that. Is that >> Just to get some color on that. Is that because they just can't they have to because they just can't they have to because they just can't they have to build up lots of infrastructure to be build up lots of infrastructure to be build up lots of infrastructure to be able to extract it? able to extract it? able to extract it? >> Oh yeah. And and because all their >> Oh yeah. And and because all their >> Oh yeah. And and because all their engineers are gone, most of them in the engineers are gone, most of them in the engineers are gone, most of them in the oil patch up in Canada, which has oil patch up in Canada, which has oil patch up in Canada, which has similar uh geology to it because they've similar uh geology to it because they've similar uh geology to it because they've destroyed so much of their destroyed so much of their destroyed so much of their infrastructure. It's broken down because infrastructure. It's broken down because infrastructure. It's broken down because the governance structure isn't there the governance structure isn't there the governance structure isn't there yet. They don't have people that are yet. They don't have people that are yet. They don't have people that are capable of actually ensuring that there capable of actually ensuring that there capable of actually ensuring that there will be contracts that you would follow will be contracts that you would follow will be contracts that you would follow through on engage in people that still through on engage in people that still through on engage in people that still have huge lawsuits that need to be have huge lawsuits that need to be have huge lawsuits that need to be resolved. Right? So all of this stuff resolved. Right? So all of this stuff resolved. Right? So all of this stuff but to get to your I don't want to lose but to get to your I don't want to lose but to get to your I don't want to lose sight of your why did Trump do this in sight of your why did Trump do this in sight of your why did Trump do this in Iran. So the first point is beginning of Iran. So the first point is beginning of Iran. So the first point is beginning of the year Trump goes in to Venezuela, the year Trump goes in to Venezuela, the year Trump goes in to Venezuela, right? It is the most successful right? It is the most successful right? It is the most successful military operation you can possibly military operation you can possibly military operation you can possibly imagine. Not a single American imagine. Not a single American imagine. Not a single American serviceman or woman is killed. They go serviceman or woman is killed. They go serviceman or woman is killed. They go in, they take Maduro out. They don't in, they take Maduro out. They don't in, they take Maduro out. They don't kill him. They don't injure him. They kill him. They don't injure him. They kill him. They don't injure him. They bring him to a jail in Brooklyn, right bring him to a jail in Brooklyn, right bring him to a jail in Brooklyn, right here in New York. Out of burrow, but here in New York. Out of burrow, but here in New York. Out of burrow, but still counts. New York City, right? still counts. New York City, right? still counts. New York City, right? Extraordinary. And he's facing justice. Extraordinary. And he's facing justice. Extraordinary. And he's facing justice. And meanwhile, Deli Rodriguez, right? And meanwhile, Deli Rodriguez, right? And meanwhile, Deli Rodriguez, right? Suddenly, vice president becomes acting Suddenly, vice president becomes acting Suddenly, vice president becomes acting president. It's like, "Sir, we want to president. It's like, "Sir, we want to president. It's like, "Sir, we want to work with you guys. We don't want any of work with you guys. We don't want any of work with you guys. We don't want any of that." Right? And so, you've got a new that." Right? And so, you've got a new that." Right? And so, you've got a new government that is has a different government that is has a different government that is has a different trajectory, but it's basically the same trajectory, but it's basically the same trajectory, but it's basically the same regime. And they say, "Whatever you regime. And they say, "Whatever you regime. And they say, "Whatever you want, we will work on. You want we'll want, we will work on. You want we'll want, we will work on. You want we'll open our oil sector. We'll open our open our oil sector. We'll open our open our oil sector. We'll open our mining sector. We'll have better rags. mining sector. We'll have better rags. mining sector. We'll have better rags. We'll we'll we'll try to improve the We'll we'll we'll try to improve the We'll we'll we'll try to improve the economy for the average Venezuelan. I economy for the average Venezuelan. I economy for the average Venezuelan. I mean, they're starting to become mean, they're starting to become mean, they're starting to become popular. In another year, if they had popular. In another year, if they had popular. In another year, if they had elections in Venezuela, it is not elections in Venezuela, it is not elections in Venezuela, it is not inconceivable that she would win in a inconceivable that she would win in a inconceivable that she would win in a democratic election, which is like blows democratic election, which is like blows democratic election, which is like blows your mind, right? Whole bunch, hundreds your mind, right? Whole bunch, hundreds your mind, right? Whole bunch, hundreds of political prisoners, they've of political prisoners, they've of political prisoners, they've released. I talked to leaders all over released. I talked to leaders all over released. I talked to leaders all over South America. They all think this was a South America. They all think this was a South America. They all think this was a success. This is enormously popular success. This is enormously popular success. This is enormously popular among the populations in those countries among the populations in those countries among the populations in those countries because they care about security. That's because they care about security. That's because they care about security. That's what they've been voting on. Their what they've been voting on. Their what they've been voting on. Their elections have been about the economy elections have been about the economy elections have been about the economy and local security and Venezuela has and local security and Venezuela has and local security and Venezuela has been a problem for them, right? I mean, been a problem for them, right? I mean, been a problem for them, right? I mean, they're exporting people causing crime. they're exporting people causing crime. they're exporting people causing crime. Colombia, Peru, Brazil, this Chile, Colombia, Peru, Brazil, this Chile, Colombia, Peru, Brazil, this Chile, right? This has been a serious issue. right? This has been a serious issue. right? This has been a serious issue. Trump Trump is hugely feeling great, Trump Trump is hugely feeling great, Trump Trump is hugely feeling great, successful, and now he's like, I can do successful, and now he's like, I can do successful, and now he's like, I can do that in Iran. I can do it even bigger. that in Iran. I can do it even bigger. that in Iran. I can do it even bigger. That's the first reason. That's the I That's the first reason. That's the I That's the first reason. That's the I said three reasons. That's the first said three reasons. That's the first said three reasons. That's the first reason. Second reason, this is not reason. Second reason, this is not reason. Second reason, this is not Trump's first rodeo with the Iranians. Trump's first rodeo with the Iranians. Trump's first rodeo with the Iranians. In his first presidency, the Iranians In his first presidency, the Iranians In his first presidency, the Iranians were engaging in strikes against the were engaging in strikes against the were engaging in strikes against the Americans directly and with proxies, uh, Americans directly and with proxies, uh, Americans directly and with proxies, uh, bases in Iraq, other places also were bases in Iraq, other places also were bases in Iraq, other places also were taking on strikes against the biggest taking on strikes against the biggest taking on strikes against the biggest refinery in the world in Saudi Arabia. refinery in the world in Saudi Arabia. refinery in the world in Saudi Arabia. Those drone strikes, you may remember, Those drone strikes, you may remember, Those drone strikes, you may remember, the Saudis and the Amiradis were telling the Saudis and the Amiradis were telling the Saudis and the Amiradis were telling the Americans, when are you going to do the Americans, when are you going to do the Americans, when are you going to do something? we need to take some action. something? we need to take some action. something? we need to take some action. Trump didn't want to do anything. Trump didn't want to do anything. Trump didn't want to do anything. They're getting angry, right? Finally, They're getting angry, right? Finally, They're getting angry, right? Finally, the end of his presidency, he orders, the end of his presidency, he orders, the end of his presidency, he orders, pretty bold move, the assassination of pretty bold move, the assassination of pretty bold move, the assassination of this incredibly charismatic military this incredibly charismatic military this incredibly charismatic military leader, Kasamsulammani, the head of the leader, Kasamsulammani, the head of the leader, Kasamsulammani, the head of the Kuds force as it was called in Iran. And Kuds force as it was called in Iran. And Kuds force as it was called in Iran. And Iran was so angry and they were going to Iran was so angry and they were going to Iran was so angry and they were going to destroy the United States. Death to destroy the United States. Death to destroy the United States. Death to America. What do they actually do? America. What do they actually do? America. What do they actually do? Nothing. And then last June, Nothing. And then last June, Nothing. And then last June, Iranians are developing their ballistic Iranians are developing their ballistic Iranians are developing their ballistic missiles. They're developing their missiles. They're developing their missiles. They're developing their nuclear enrichment in radian enrichment. nuclear enrichment in radian enrichment. nuclear enrichment in radian enrichment. They're like stockpiling at higher They're like stockpiling at higher They're like stockpiling at higher levels 60% and the Israelis want to go levels 60% and the Israelis want to go levels 60% and the Israelis want to go in. Trump's providing intelligence. He in. Trump's providing intelligence. He in. Trump's providing intelligence. He doesn't want to go. Kind of dangerous. doesn't want to go. Kind of dangerous. doesn't want to go. Kind of dangerous. The Israelis go in. It's enormously The Israelis go in. It's enormously The Israelis go in. It's enormously popular. It's going well. Succeeding. popular. It's going well. Succeeding. popular. It's going well. Succeeding. Trump's like, I want a part of that. Trump's like, I want a part of that. Trump's like, I want a part of that. That's successful. So, he joins in. That's successful. So, he joins in. That's successful. So, he joins in. Second time Israel took casualties about Second time Israel took casualties about Second time Israel took casualties about 100 killed I think in the course of that 100 killed I think in the course of that 100 killed I think in the course of that 12-day war. The United States Iran 12-day war. The United States Iran 12-day war. The United States Iran talked big did not hit the Americans. talked big did not hit the Americans. talked big did not hit the Americans. They threw some missiles at that Alade They threw some missiles at that Alade They threw some missiles at that Alade base in Qatar, the biggest US base. They base in Qatar, the biggest US base. They base in Qatar, the biggest US base. They warned the Americans through Iraq before warned the Americans through Iraq before warned the Americans through Iraq before the missiles were launched. So it was the missiles were launched. So it was the missiles were launched. So it was very clear the Iranians didn't want any very clear the Iranians didn't want any very clear the Iranians didn't want any part of that fight. So Trump is thinking part of that fight. So Trump is thinking part of that fight. So Trump is thinking to himself, "This is going to be awesome to himself, "This is going to be awesome to himself, "This is going to be awesome cuz I'm going to go in. I'm going to cuz I'm going to go in. I'm going to cuz I'm going to go in. I'm going to pull Venezuela in Iran. And I know they pull Venezuela in Iran. And I know they pull Venezuela in Iran. And I know they don't want to fight me. I kill the don't want to fight me. I kill the don't want to fight me. I kill the Supreme Leader, 86 years old. He's going Supreme Leader, 86 years old. He's going Supreme Leader, 86 years old. He's going to die anyway. He's not that popular to die anyway. He's not that popular to die anyway. He's not that popular among the Iranian, the Islamic among the Iranian, the Islamic among the Iranian, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the IRGC, Revolutionary Guards Corps, the IRGC, Revolutionary Guards Corps, the IRGC, because they're the ones that really run because they're the ones that really run because they're the ones that really run the country. I'm going to have this huge the country. I'm going to have this huge the country. I'm going to have this huge military force that shows what I'm military force that shows what I'm military force that shows what I'm capable of doing. Then the rest of the capable of doing. Then the rest of the capable of doing. Then the rest of the Iranian leadership, they're going to Iranian leadership, they're going to Iranian leadership, they're going to want to work with me just like they did want to work with me just like they did want to work with me just like they did in Venezuela. That was reason number in Venezuela. That was reason number in Venezuela. That was reason number two. And then the most important reason, two. And then the most important reason, two. And then the most important reason, the most important reason is that unlike the most important reason is that unlike the most important reason is that unlike Trump's first term where he had people Trump's first term where he had people Trump's first term where he had people around him that were patriotic first and around him that were patriotic first and around him that were patriotic first and foremost to the country and when they foremost to the country and when they foremost to the country and when they had disagreements with Trump, they let had disagreements with Trump, they let had disagreements with Trump, they let him know and they leaked and they also him know and they leaked and they also him know and they leaked and they also um were willing occasionally to do what um were willing occasionally to do what um were willing occasionally to do what they could to undermine an incompetent they could to undermine an incompetent they could to undermine an incompetent decision that would hurt the country. decision that would hurt the country. decision that would hurt the country. And we saw that whether it was with Mike And we saw that whether it was with Mike And we saw that whether it was with Mike Pompeo or or or Mad Dog Mattis, right? Pompeo or or or Mad Dog Mattis, right? Pompeo or or or Mad Dog Mattis, right? All of these people who were much more All of these people who were much more All of these people who were much more independent, strong actors. This time independent, strong actors. This time independent, strong actors. This time around, Trump has some really good around, Trump has some really good around, Trump has some really good adviserss, people like Marco Rubio and adviserss, people like Marco Rubio and adviserss, people like Marco Rubio and uh Scott Besson. He also has some uh Scott Besson. He also has some uh Scott Besson. He also has some staggeringly incompetent adviserss like staggeringly incompetent adviserss like staggeringly incompetent adviserss like Pete Hegath for example. But what they Pete Hegath for example. But what they Pete Hegath for example. But what they all share is that they are first and all share is that they are first and all share is that they are first and foremost loyal to the president and they foremost loyal to the president and they foremost loyal to the president and they will not tell him. They won't push back. will not tell him. They won't push back. will not tell him. They won't push back. And what he hears from them is shaded And what he hears from them is shaded And what he hears from them is shaded towards how brilliant he is. And that towards how brilliant he is. And that towards how brilliant he is. And that makes him think that he will be more makes him think that he will be more makes him think that he will be more successful even when the military thinks successful even when the military thinks successful even when the military thinks this is a horrible idea. And we just saw this is a horrible idea. And we just saw this is a horrible idea. And we just saw this with the reporting from the head of this with the reporting from the head of this with the reporting from the head of the joint chiefs, Dan Kaine, who clearly the joint chiefs, Dan Kaine, who clearly the joint chiefs, Dan Kaine, who clearly thinks that this is a really bad idea thinks that this is a really bad idea thinks that this is a really bad idea and understands that the military um and understands that the military um and understands that the military um scenarios are super dangerous and that scenarios are super dangerous and that scenarios are super dangerous and that the Iranians will be able to shut down the Iranians will be able to shut down the Iranians will be able to shut down the straight. And every military in the the straight. And every military in the the straight. And every military in the US for the last 20, 30 years has gamed US for the last 20, 30 years has gamed US for the last 20, 30 years has gamed out how the Iranians could shut down the out how the Iranians could shut down the out how the Iranians could shut down the straight in a major conflict. And Trump straight in a major conflict. And Trump straight in a major conflict. And Trump hears very little of that and he's hears very little of that and he's hears very little of that and he's taking away. I'm incredible. I'm taking away. I'm incredible. I'm taking away. I'm incredible. I'm confident I'm going to make this happen. confident I'm going to make this happen. confident I'm going to make this happen. Those are the reasons he went in. Those are the reasons he went in. Those are the reasons he went in. >> And so he thought it would be take out >> And so he thought it would be take out >> And so he thought it would be take out the Supreme Leader, then they'll the Supreme Leader, then they'll the Supreme Leader, then they'll negotiate. We'll get a better deal. negotiate. We'll get a better deal. negotiate. We'll get a better deal. We'll have a political system there or We'll have a political system there or We'll have a political system there or political leader there that is obedient political leader there that is obedient political leader there that is obedient to us. to us. to us. >> Yep. It'll be and it'll be maybe it >> Yep. It'll be and it'll be maybe it >> Yep. It'll be and it'll be maybe it won't be a day, but it's not going to be won't be a day, but it's not going to be won't be a day, but it's not going to be a month. a month. a month. >> And what actually happened? >> And what actually happened? >> And what actually happened? >> That did not happen. What actually >> That did not happen. What actually >> That did not happen. What actually happened is um the Americans took out happened is um the Americans took out happened is um the Americans took out well the Israelis took out the supreme well the Israelis took out the supreme well the Israelis took out the supreme leader and also took out a lot of the leader and also took out a lot of the leader and also took out a lot of the military leadership that the Americans military leadership that the Americans military leadership that the Americans had been speaking to which is why Trump had been speaking to which is why Trump had been speaking to which is why Trump came out and he said well a lot of the came out and he said well a lot of the came out and he said well a lot of the guys were talking to are dead now so we guys were talking to are dead now so we guys were talking to are dead now so we don't really know who to work with. He don't really know who to work with. He don't really know who to work with. He said that in the not even if it's true said that in the not even if it's true said that in the not even if it's true and it was you don't want the president and it was you don't want the president and it was you don't want the president saying that right he has no filter. Um saying that right he has no filter. Um saying that right he has no filter. Um so which is which is one of the more so which is which is one of the more so which is which is one of the more interesting things about this interesting things about this interesting things about this presidency. What happened is the Iranian presidency. What happened is the Iranian presidency. What happened is the Iranian leadership was taken out. The response leadership was taken out. The response leadership was taken out. The response was immediately what they call this was immediately what they call this was immediately what they call this mosaic situation uh where they mosaic situation uh where they mosaic situation uh where they decentralized the um military decision-m decentralized the um military decision-m decentralized the um military decision-m to local commanders because they were to local commanders because they were to local commanders because they were worried that the high level commanders worried that the high level commanders worried that the high level commanders if they were on cell phones, if they if they were on cell phones, if they if they were on cell phones, if they were engaging with other commanders, the were engaging with other commanders, the were engaging with other commanders, the Israelis would know where they were and Israelis would know where they were and Israelis would know where they were and they'd be able to assassinate them. So they'd be able to assassinate them. So they'd be able to assassinate them. So then suddenly the Iranians were taking then suddenly the Iranians were taking then suddenly the Iranians were taking shots at other at Gulf states at shots at other at Gulf states at shots at other at Gulf states at critical infrastructure and stopping critical infrastructure and stopping critical infrastructure and stopping transit from the straight. transit from the straight. transit from the straight. >> This is one of the questions I had is in >> This is one of the questions I had is in >> This is one of the questions I had is in several interviews that Trump has done several interviews that Trump has done several interviews that Trump has done he alludes to the fact that he thinks he alludes to the fact that he thinks he alludes to the fact that he thinks he's talking to the right people. Do you he's talking to the right people. Do you he's talking to the right people. Do you really believe I know there was a really believe I know there was a really believe I know there was a meeting recently in Pakistan where they meeting recently in Pakistan where they meeting recently in Pakistan where they sent JD Vance in to negotiate with Iran. sent JD Vance in to negotiate with Iran. sent JD Vance in to negotiate with Iran. Do you think anyone is running Iran at Do you think anyone is running Iran at Do you think anyone is running Iran at the moment? Is there leadership in Iran? the moment? Is there leadership in Iran? the moment? Is there leadership in Iran? Is it possible to negotiate and control Is it possible to negotiate and control Is it possible to negotiate and control all of these dispersed forces all of these dispersed forces all of these dispersed forces um at the moment? um at the moment? um at the moment? >> First, the honest answer is it's >> First, the honest answer is it's >> First, the honest answer is it's impossible to know because this is right impossible to know because this is right impossible to know because this is right now the the the internal decision-m of now the the the internal decision-m of now the the the internal decision-m of Iran is extremely buttoned up. Um and it Iran is extremely buttoned up. Um and it Iran is extremely buttoned up. Um and it they ain't talking to anyone uh about they ain't talking to anyone uh about they ain't talking to anyone uh about that. that. that. >> But it's very easy to assess two things. >> But it's very easy to assess two things. >> But it's very easy to assess two things. first um that their ability to make first um that their ability to make first um that their ability to make centralized decision plans and implement centralized decision plans and implement centralized decision plans and implement them is real. So when their biggest gas them is real. So when their biggest gas them is real. So when their biggest gas field is hit and they say we're going to field is hit and they say we're going to field is hit and they say we're going to hit you back in return, they are able to hit you back in return, they are able to hit you back in return, they are able to implement on that in short order. So implement on that in short order. So implement on that in short order. So we've seen a number of occasions in the we've seen a number of occasions in the we've seen a number of occasions in the last five weeks where Iran has gone from last five weeks where Iran has gone from last five weeks where Iran has gone from statement made by the foreign ministry statement made by the foreign ministry statement made by the foreign ministry and by spokespeople to action taken by and by spokespeople to action taken by and by spokespeople to action taken by local commander in Iran which implies local commander in Iran which implies local commander in Iran which implies that there is a centralized structure. that there is a centralized structure. that there is a centralized structure. We also see toll taking on the strait by We also see toll taking on the strait by We also see toll taking on the strait by individuals that are being ordered by individuals that are being ordered by individuals that are being ordered by the central Iranian government to do the central Iranian government to do the central Iranian government to do that. They're not operating by that. They're not operating by that. They're not operating by themselves. So in that regard, the fact themselves. So in that regard, the fact themselves. So in that regard, the fact that the Iranians showed up in Islamabad that the Iranians showed up in Islamabad that the Iranians showed up in Islamabad in Pakistan with significant leadership in Pakistan with significant leadership in Pakistan with significant leadership with the foreign minister, also the with the foreign minister, also the with the foreign minister, also the speaker of the parliament, but also a speaker of the parliament, but also a speaker of the parliament, but also a team of experts who had briefs on team of experts who had briefs on team of experts who had briefs on negotiating on a number of different negotiating on a number of different negotiating on a number of different points on the street and on ballistic points on the street and on ballistic points on the street and on ballistic missiles and on support of proxy actors missiles and on support of proxy actors missiles and on support of proxy actors and on the nuclear issue which proved and on the nuclear issue which proved and on the nuclear issue which proved the most divisive in those 21 hours of the most divisive in those 21 hours of the most divisive in those 21 hours of talks. talks. talks. shows that this regime is still very shows that this regime is still very shows that this regime is still very much functioning despite all of the much functioning despite all of the much functioning despite all of the Israeli and the American efforts to say Israeli and the American efforts to say Israeli and the American efforts to say that, you know, they've done all this that, you know, they've done all this that, you know, they've done all this incredible damage. This regime is still incredible damage. This regime is still incredible damage. This regime is still very much in place very much in place very much in place >> and they couldn't get a deal. So Trump >> and they couldn't get a deal. So Trump >> and they couldn't get a deal. So Trump announced that he's going to block the announced that he's going to block the announced that he's going to block the strait of Humuz himself strait of Humuz himself strait of Humuz himself >> just hours ago. I think that that is >> just hours ago. I think that that is >> just hours ago. I think that that is also overstated. also overstated. also overstated. You have 21 hours of talks led by the You have 21 hours of talks led by the You have 21 hours of talks led by the vice president of the United States. I vice president of the United States. I vice president of the United States. I assure you if these talks were a assure you if these talks were a assure you if these talks were a disaster, they don't last 24 hours. Two disaster, they don't last 24 hours. Two disaster, they don't last 24 hours. Two or three and then they're out. 21 hours or three and then they're out. 21 hours or three and then they're out. 21 hours means very substantive conversations on means very substantive conversations on means very substantive conversations on the entire range of topics that were of the entire range of topics that were of the entire range of topics that were of importance to the Americans and the importance to the Americans and the importance to the Americans and the Iranians. Trump did not get the outcome Iranians. Trump did not get the outcome Iranians. Trump did not get the outcome he wanted. Ultimately, I'm not super he wanted. Ultimately, I'm not super he wanted. Ultimately, I'm not super surprised because the Iranians feel like surprised because the Iranians feel like surprised because the Iranians feel like they have more leverage right now than they have more leverage right now than they have more leverage right now than the United States thinks they do. And the United States thinks they do. And the United States thinks they do. And this frustrates Trump immensely. And so this frustrates Trump immensely. And so this frustrates Trump immensely. And so at the end, remember he's he's calling at the end, remember he's he's calling at the end, remember he's he's calling and talking with Vance more than 10 and talking with Vance more than 10 and talking with Vance more than 10 times over the course of this entire times over the course of this entire times over the course of this entire conversation. It's a they're they're in conversation. It's a they're they're in conversation. It's a they're they're in regular contact. At that point, Trump regular contact. At that point, Trump regular contact. At that point, Trump says, "Okay, I'm blockading the street." says, "Okay, I'm blockading the street." says, "Okay, I'm blockading the street." But just before markets open on Monday, But just before markets open on Monday, But just before markets open on Monday, you also see reporting that, well, these you also see reporting that, well, these you also see reporting that, well, these talks that were a disaster, we're we're talks that were a disaster, we're we're talks that were a disaster, we're we're going to engage in further talks. So going to engage in further talks. So going to engage in further talks. So maybe it wasn't such a disaster. Maybe maybe it wasn't such a disaster. Maybe maybe it wasn't such a disaster. Maybe what's really going on here is Trump what's really going on here is Trump what's really going on here is Trump wants to show that he still has more wants to show that he still has more wants to show that he still has more leverage to use against the Iranians leverage to use against the Iranians leverage to use against the Iranians because he's lost a lot of his leverage. because he's lost a lot of his leverage. because he's lost a lot of his leverage. He gave a speech to the American people, He gave a speech to the American people, He gave a speech to the American people, one speech so far about Iran. Prime time one speech so far about Iran. Prime time one speech so far about Iran. Prime time speech. In that speech, he said, "War's speech. In that speech, he said, "War's speech. In that speech, he said, "War's almost over. Two to three weeks, Max. almost over. Two to three weeks, Max. almost over. Two to three weeks, Max. We're done. If I'm the Iranians and I We're done. If I'm the Iranians and I We're done. If I'm the Iranians and I hear that, I'm like, great. The hear that, I'm like, great. The hear that, I'm like, great. The Americans can't take this pain anymore. Americans can't take this pain anymore. Americans can't take this pain anymore. They can't take it." He keeps saying, They can't take it." He keeps saying, They can't take it." He keeps saying, "Straits, not my problem. Straits, let "Straits, not my problem. Straits, let "Straits, not my problem. Straits, let them take care of it." I hear that I'm them take care of it." I hear that I'm them take care of it." I hear that I'm the Iranians. Great. He can't take this the Iranians. Great. He can't take this the Iranians. Great. He can't take this economic pain. He knows he doesn't have economic pain. He knows he doesn't have economic pain. He knows he doesn't have a military solution. So, it's not that a military solution. So, it's not that a military solution. So, it's not that the Iranians are only hearing for Trump, the Iranians are only hearing for Trump, the Iranians are only hearing for Trump, I'm going to destroy your civilization. I'm going to destroy your civilization. I'm going to destroy your civilization. They're seeing what he's actually doing. They're seeing what he's actually doing. They're seeing what he's actually doing. >> And he seems to change his mind a lot or >> And he seems to change his mind a lot or >> And he seems to change his mind a lot or not follow through on some of the not follow through on some of the not follow through on some of the threats that he makes. threats that he makes. threats that he makes. >> Right. Of course. >> Right. Of course. >> Right. Of course. >> And then they also will be aware that >> And then they also will be aware that >> And then they also will be aware that he's becoming increasingly unpopular he's becoming increasingly unpopular he's becoming increasingly unpopular >> on this issue specifically. on this >> on this issue specifically. on this >> on this issue specifically. on this issue issue issue >> on this issue specifically. He is >> on this issue specifically. He is >> on this issue specifically. He is underwater just like he was on Greenland underwater just like he was on Greenland underwater just like he was on Greenland where he eventually completely did a where he eventually completely did a where he eventually completely did a 180. He was going to put tariffs on all 180. He was going to put tariffs on all 180. He was going to put tariffs on all the Europeans that supported Denmark. He the Europeans that supported Denmark. He the Europeans that supported Denmark. He had to take Greenland. Those things went had to take Greenland. Those things went had to take Greenland. Those things went away. away. away. >> So you're sat there. You're going >> So you're sat there. You're going >> So you're sat there. You're going Trump's own people are pressurizing him Trump's own people are pressurizing him Trump's own people are pressurizing him to get the hell out of here. to get the hell out of here. to get the hell out of here. >> He's unpopular day by day. It's hurting >> He's unpopular day by day. It's hurting >> He's unpopular day by day. It's hurting his economy. Correct. His midterms his economy. Correct. His midterms his economy. Correct. His midterms elections that are coming up. He's going elections that are coming up. He's going elections that are coming up. He's going to be severely hurt and he's going to to be severely hurt and he's going to to be severely hurt and he's going to lose power in that regard. So actually lose power in that regard. So actually lose power in that regard. So actually the Iranian leaders, I mean they might the Iranian leaders, I mean they might the Iranian leaders, I mean they might be incentivized just to wait it out. be incentivized just to wait it out. be incentivized just to wait it out. >> That's right. Because they don't think >> That's right. Because they don't think >> That's right. Because they don't think they have to wait it out for months. they have to wait it out for months. they have to wait it out for months. >> It's a democracy. So he's going to be >> It's a democracy. So he's going to be >> It's a democracy. So he's going to be unelected at some point in a couple unelected at some point in a couple unelected at some point in a couple years. years. years. >> They saw China. China did this right >> They saw China. China did this right >> They saw China. China did this right last year, Liberation Day as Trump last year, Liberation Day as Trump last year, Liberation Day as Trump called it where he puts tariffs on all called it where he puts tariffs on all called it where he puts tariffs on all these countries. He puts these high these countries. He puts these high these countries. He puts these high tariffs on China. They hit back. He does tariffs on China. They hit back. He does tariffs on China. They hit back. He does it again. They hit back again. He's it again. They hit back again. He's it again. They hit back again. He's like, "I'm going to do export controls." like, "I'm going to do export controls." like, "I'm going to do export controls." I said, "Well, we're going to shut down I said, "Well, we're going to shut down I said, "Well, we're going to shut down your critical minerals." Suddenly CEOs your critical minerals." Suddenly CEOs your critical minerals." Suddenly CEOs are going to Mara Lago. They say you got are going to Mara Lago. They say you got are going to Mara Lago. They say you got to deal with the Iranians or or we're to deal with the Iranians or or we're to deal with the Iranians or or we're going to shut down our factory lines. In going to shut down our factory lines. In going to shut down our factory lines. In red states, Trump has to back down. red states, Trump has to back down. red states, Trump has to back down. Right? So they've we've already seen Right? So they've we've already seen Right? So they've we've already seen that when a country has leverage over that when a country has leverage over that when a country has leverage over Trump and they can hit him, he has the Trump and they can hit him, he has the Trump and they can hit him, he has the most strong military in the world, but most strong military in the world, but most strong military in the world, but he also has a glass jaw. He can't take a he also has a glass jaw. He can't take a he also has a glass jaw. He can't take a hit the way that unelected hit the way that unelected hit the way that unelected non-democracies can. The Chinese and now non-democracies can. The Chinese and now non-democracies can. The Chinese and now the Iranians over the Strait. So what the Iranians over the Strait. So what the Iranians over the Strait. So what Trump is doing with announcing the Trump is doing with announcing the Trump is doing with announcing the blockade, and by the way, he hasn't blockade, and by the way, he hasn't blockade, and by the way, he hasn't broken the ceasefire. So even though a broken the ceasefire. So even though a broken the ceasefire. So even though a blockade is an act of war, he still blockade is an act of war, he still blockade is an act of war, he still hasn't said, "Okay, you guys have to hasn't said, "Okay, you guys have to hasn't said, "Okay, you guys have to start hitting the Iranians again right start hitting the Iranians again right start hitting the Iranians again right now." So he this is still deescalated now." So he this is still deescalated now." So he this is still deescalated compared to a week ago. A week ago, this compared to a week ago. A week ago, this compared to a week ago. A week ago, this looked much more dangerous than it looks looked much more dangerous than it looks looked much more dangerous than it looks today. He's saying to the Iranians, hey, today. He's saying to the Iranians, hey, today. He's saying to the Iranians, hey, I'm willing to cut off your source of I'm willing to cut off your source of I'm willing to cut off your source of funds. I'm willing to stop you from funds. I'm willing to stop you from funds. I'm willing to stop you from exporting oil and making money off of exporting oil and making money off of exporting oil and making money off of it. same Trump that suspended those it. same Trump that suspended those it. same Trump that suspended those sanctions on Iran because he wanted to sanctions on Iran because he wanted to sanctions on Iran because he wanted to keep the prices down. So that's that's keep the prices down. So that's that's keep the prices down. So that's that's what's happening right here. what's happening right here. what's happening right here. >> Iran also, again, I'm trying to put >> Iran also, again, I'm trying to put >> Iran also, again, I'm trying to put myself in the the mind of, you know, the myself in the the mind of, you know, the myself in the the mind of, you know, the incentive structure of the Iranian incentive structure of the Iranian incentive structure of the Iranian leaders. They can't let it be seen or leaders. They can't let it be seen or leaders. They can't let it be seen or known that dropping bombs on us made us known that dropping bombs on us made us known that dropping bombs on us made us pander to you. Because if they set that pander to you. Because if they set that pander to you. Because if they set that precedence, then for the next couple of precedence, then for the next couple of precedence, then for the next couple of decades, every American leader is going decades, every American leader is going decades, every American leader is going to know, okay, if you want Iran to play to know, okay, if you want Iran to play to know, okay, if you want Iran to play ball, all you do is take out their ball, all you do is take out their ball, all you do is take out their leadership, you drop loads of bombs on leadership, you drop loads of bombs on leadership, you drop loads of bombs on everything they have, and then they come everything they have, and then they come everything they have, and then they come and negotiate with you and give up their and negotiate with you and give up their and negotiate with you and give up their nuclear weapons and everything else. So, nuclear weapons and everything else. So, nuclear weapons and everything else. So, I imagine there's an element of an I imagine there's an element of an I imagine there's an element of an Iranians now going, if we buckle here, Iranians now going, if we buckle here, Iranians now going, if we buckle here, then for the rest of time, America are then for the rest of time, America are then for the rest of time, America are going to repeat this playbook. going to repeat this playbook. going to repeat this playbook. >> I I hear what you're saying. I I would >> I I hear what you're saying. I I would >> I I hear what you're saying. I I would put it slightly differently. I I think put it slightly differently. I I think put it slightly differently. I I think that after the 12-day war last June, the that after the 12-day war last June, the that after the 12-day war last June, the Iranians understood that their deterrent Iranians understood that their deterrent Iranians understood that their deterrent capacity had failed. They were incapable capacity had failed. They were incapable capacity had failed. They were incapable of preventing the Americans and the of preventing the Americans and the of preventing the Americans and the Israelis from hitting them and their Israelis from hitting them and their Israelis from hitting them and their proxies whenever they wanted. We've proxies whenever they wanted. We've proxies whenever they wanted. We've talked a lot about Iran. We haven't talked a lot about Iran. We haven't talked a lot about Iran. We haven't talked at all about Lebanon. There's talked at all about Lebanon. There's talked at all about Lebanon. There's another war going on in Lebanon right another war going on in Lebanon right another war going on in Lebanon right now. The Israelis are hitting the now. The Israelis are hitting the now. The Israelis are hitting the Lebanese very hard. There's over a Lebanese very hard. There's over a Lebanese very hard. There's over a million displaced people in the last million displaced people in the last million displaced people in the last several weeks. several weeks. several weeks. >> Why? Why? What? What is this war? >> Why? Why? What? What is this war? >> Why? Why? What? What is this war? >> Well, Hezbollah, which is um a terrorist >> Well, Hezbollah, which is um a terrorist >> Well, Hezbollah, which is um a terrorist organization uh as recognized by Israel organization uh as recognized by Israel organization uh as recognized by Israel and the United States, though not and the United States, though not and the United States, though not everybody, continues to have the ability everybody, continues to have the ability everybody, continues to have the ability to engage in strikes against Israel. to engage in strikes against Israel. to engage in strikes against Israel. Nowhere close to the strength of the Nowhere close to the strength of the Nowhere close to the strength of the Israeli military. But le the Lebanese Israeli military. But le the Lebanese Israeli military. But le the Lebanese government promised to disarm them. They government promised to disarm them. They government promised to disarm them. They have not done that. And so Hezbollah has have not done that. And so Hezbollah has have not done that. And so Hezbollah has been able to continue to engage in been able to continue to engage in been able to continue to engage in missile strikes, relatively small missile strikes, relatively small missile strikes, relatively small numbers of missile strikes into the numbers of missile strikes into the numbers of missile strikes into the north of Israel where Israeli citizens north of Israel where Israeli citizens north of Israel where Israeli citizens live. There was a period of time after live. There was a period of time after live. There was a period of time after the October 7th um attacks by Hamas the October 7th um attacks by Hamas the October 7th um attacks by Hamas where over a 100,000 Israelis had to where over a 100,000 Israelis had to where over a 100,000 Israelis had to evacuate from their homes and their evacuate from their homes and their evacuate from their homes and their schools and the rest for like a year schools and the rest for like a year schools and the rest for like a year because Hezbollah was making their lives because Hezbollah was making their lives because Hezbollah was making their lives hell. Right? So what Israel is now doing hell. Right? So what Israel is now doing hell. Right? So what Israel is now doing is they're going to take territory about is they're going to take territory about is they're going to take territory about 5 to 7 kilometers of Lebanese land. 5 to 7 kilometers of Lebanese land. 5 to 7 kilometers of Lebanese land. They're going to occupy it as a buffer They're going to occupy it as a buffer They're going to occupy it as a buffer zone to protect those Israeli civilians zone to protect those Israeli civilians zone to protect those Israeli civilians from Hezbollah being able to hit them from Hezbollah being able to hit them from Hezbollah being able to hit them with their weapons. That is the with their weapons. That is the with their weapons. That is the intention here. And so what Iran intention here. And so what Iran intention here. And so what Iran understands is that their ability to understands is that their ability to understands is that their ability to deter Israel from hitting Hezbollah, deter Israel from hitting Hezbollah, deter Israel from hitting Hezbollah, Hezbollah at the beginning in October Hezbollah at the beginning in October Hezbollah at the beginning in October 7th, Hezbollah was the most powerful 7th, Hezbollah was the most powerful 7th, Hezbollah was the most powerful non-state military in the world. No one non-state military in the world. No one non-state military in the world. No one else was close. And today, Hezbollah has else was close. And today, Hezbollah has else was close. And today, Hezbollah has shown that their leadership gets shown that their leadership gets shown that their leadership gets targeted and destroyed, assassinated targeted and destroyed, assassinated targeted and destroyed, assassinated across the board by the Israelis, that across the board by the Israelis, that across the board by the Israelis, that their military is incapable, their their military is incapable, their their military is incapable, their critical infrastructure can be critical infrastructure can be critical infrastructure can be disrupted, and that Israel can also hit disrupted, and that Israel can also hit disrupted, and that Israel can also hit Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, and no Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, and no Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, and no one can do anything and return to one can do anything and return to one can do anything and return to Israel. Israel. Israel. >> There's lots of chaos going on in the >> There's lots of chaos going on in the >> There's lots of chaos going on in the world right now. world right now. world right now. >> Yes. Was there a way to have avoided all >> Yes. Was there a way to have avoided all >> Yes. Was there a way to have avoided all of this? Was there something that of this? Was there something that of this? Was there something that someone could have done further upstream someone could have done further upstream someone could have done further upstream to avoid all this chaos that we're to avoid all this chaos that we're to avoid all this chaos that we're seeing now in the Middle East? Like what seeing now in the Middle East? Like what seeing now in the Middle East? Like what was the first domino that fell was the first domino that fell was the first domino that fell >> in Iran? >> in Iran? >> in Iran? You do have an enormously repressive You do have an enormously repressive You do have an enormously repressive regime that has the ability um to take regime that has the ability um to take regime that has the ability um to take action against their own people in a in action against their own people in a in action against their own people in a in in a incredibly brutal way as we saw in a incredibly brutal way as we saw in a incredibly brutal way as we saw play out in January. play out in January. play out in January. >> And it's also a regime that does not >> And it's also a regime that does not >> And it's also a regime that does not respect the right of Israel to exist. respect the right of Israel to exist. respect the right of Israel to exist. It's also a regime that has been sending It's also a regime that has been sending It's also a regime that has been sending weapons and money and military advice to weapons and money and military advice to weapons and money and military advice to other revolutionary actors around the other revolutionary actors around the other revolutionary actors around the region, undermining security in Yemen, region, undermining security in Yemen, region, undermining security in Yemen, undermining security um in Iraq, undermining security um in Iraq, undermining security um in Iraq, undermining security in Syria. So, I undermining security in Syria. So, I undermining security in Syria. So, I mean, the fact that at the core of the mean, the fact that at the core of the mean, the fact that at the core of the Middle East, you have a revolutionary Middle East, you have a revolutionary Middle East, you have a revolutionary regime that was exporting instability regime that was exporting instability regime that was exporting instability and violence is a serious problem. and violence is a serious problem. and violence is a serious problem. That's number one. Number two, Israel. That's number one. Number two, Israel. That's number one. Number two, Israel. America's top ally in the region. America's top ally in the region. America's top ally in the region. America first. But Trump still gives America first. But Trump still gives America first. But Trump still gives billions of dollars every year to billions of dollars every year to billions of dollars every year to Israel, even as he's cut off military Israel, even as he's cut off military Israel, even as he's cut off military aid and support for almost everyone, aid and support for almost everyone, aid and support for almost everyone, including for Ukraine. Right. This including for Ukraine. Right. This including for Ukraine. Right. This country is very capable of now attacking country is very capable of now attacking country is very capable of now attacking all of its enemies and creating outcomes all of its enemies and creating outcomes all of its enemies and creating outcomes that it wants whether or not it creates that it wants whether or not it creates that it wants whether or not it creates instability in those countries. We've instability in those countries. We've instability in those countries. We've seen that in Gaza and the West Bank, seen that in Gaza and the West Bank, seen that in Gaza and the West Bank, right? I mean reality is Israel is right? I mean reality is Israel is right? I mean reality is Israel is continuing to take more and more continuing to take more and more continuing to take more and more territory in the West Bank and no one territory in the West Bank and no one territory in the West Bank and no one can do anything about it. They hit can do anything about it. They hit can do anything about it. They hit Lebanon really hard. No one can respond Lebanon really hard. No one can respond Lebanon really hard. No one can respond to that. So that is creating a reality to that. So that is creating a reality to that. So that is creating a reality where Israel is able to determine where Israel is able to determine where Israel is able to determine outcomes and even attack Iran directly outcomes and even attack Iran directly outcomes and even attack Iran directly with the United States. They felt very with the United States. They felt very with the United States. They felt very confident about taking that on and that confident about taking that on and that confident about taking that on and that there would not be backlash that would there would not be backlash that would there would not be backlash that would undermine Israel's own political undermine Israel's own political undermine Israel's own political survival. It wasn't an existential risk survival. It wasn't an existential risk survival. It wasn't an existential risk to Israel and even if Iran developed to Israel and even if Iran developed to Israel and even if Iran developed nukes which is everyone wants to prevent nukes which is everyone wants to prevent nukes which is everyone wants to prevent from happening but Israel has their own from happening but Israel has their own from happening but Israel has their own nukes right I mean they have like a 100 nukes right I mean they have like a 100 nukes right I mean they have like a 100 plus so those are two fundamental plus so those are two fundamental plus so those are two fundamental drivers of of conflict and instability drivers of of conflict and instability drivers of of conflict and instability in the region one aligned with the in the region one aligned with the in the region one aligned with the United States one a revolutionary United States one a revolutionary United States one a revolutionary theocracy there have been very positive theocracy there have been very positive theocracy there have been very positive developments in this region very developments in this region very developments in this region very positive developments first of all Syria positive developments first of all Syria positive developments first of all Syria Assad was a brutal dictator that was Assad was a brutal dictator that was Assad was a brutal dictator that was overthrown by his own people and his own overthrown by his own people and his own overthrown by his own people and his own military would not support and fight for military would not support and fight for military would not support and fight for him and the Russians proved that they him and the Russians proved that they him and the Russians proved that they couldn't support him in a significant couldn't support him in a significant couldn't support him in a significant way. And so now you have an opportunity way. And so now you have an opportunity way. And so now you have an opportunity for Syria to become a representative for Syria to become a representative for Syria to become a representative government that can engage with others government that can engage with others government that can engage with others around the region and more broadly. around the region and more broadly. around the region and more broadly. That's a positive. You've got Saudi That's a positive. You've got Saudi That's a positive. You've got Saudi Arabia and the UAE and Qatar that are Arabia and the UAE and Qatar that are Arabia and the UAE and Qatar that are engaging in transformative domestic engaging in transformative domestic engaging in transformative domestic policies to attract investment from all policies to attract investment from all policies to attract investment from all over the world to build experiences that over the world to build experiences that over the world to build experiences that everyone would want to travel and engage everyone would want to travel and engage everyone would want to travel and engage in to create work opportunities that are in to create work opportunities that are in to create work opportunities that are far better remunerated than anything far better remunerated than anything far better remunerated than anything that foreign labor could get in their that foreign labor could get in their that foreign labor could get in their own home countries allowing them to own home countries allowing them to own home countries allowing them to bring money home. And in the case of bring money home. And in the case of bring money home. And in the case of Saudi Arabia specifically, they're Saudi Arabia specifically, they're Saudi Arabia specifically, they're taking 35 million people. Half of that taking 35 million people. Half of that taking 35 million people. Half of that economy used to be closed to women and economy used to be closed to women and economy used to be closed to women and now they're bringing women into the now they're bringing women into the now they're bringing women into the economy. They're actually not just economy. They're actually not just economy. They're actually not just educating them, but they're giving them educating them, but they're giving them educating them, but they're giving them opportunities in every area of opportunities in every area of opportunities in every area of employment. That is one of the most employment. That is one of the most employment. That is one of the most extraordinary stories in the world today extraordinary stories in the world today extraordinary stories in the world today in terms of change and governance and in terms of change and governance and in terms of change and governance and that continues. Then final point here is that continues. Then final point here is that continues. Then final point here is that in the context of this Iran war we that in the context of this Iran war we that in the context of this Iran war we do and in the context of a United States do and in the context of a United States do and in the context of a United States which is doing less global leadership which is doing less global leadership which is doing less global leadership there are questions of how these there are questions of how these there are questions of how these countries that are aligned with the US countries that are aligned with the US countries that are aligned with the US want to ensure their own futures. And so want to ensure their own futures. And so want to ensure their own futures. And so we see increasingly two different blocks we see increasingly two different blocks we see increasingly two different blocks that are starting to form. You've got that are starting to form. You've got that are starting to form. You've got the United Arab Emirates together with the United Arab Emirates together with the United Arab Emirates together with Israel. You remember the Abraham Accords Israel. You remember the Abraham Accords Israel. You remember the Abraham Accords which was Trump's big foreign policy which was Trump's big foreign policy which was Trump's big foreign policy success in his first term where he got success in his first term where he got success in his first term where he got these countries the UAE and others to these countries the UAE and others to these countries the UAE and others to recognize Israel and and start doing a recognize Israel and and start doing a recognize Israel and and start doing a lot more tourism and you know business lot more tourism and you know business lot more tourism and you know business and technology transfers and the rest. and technology transfers and the rest. and technology transfers and the rest. So UAE, Israel, the United States and So UAE, Israel, the United States and So UAE, Israel, the United States and India are increasingly aligning on India are increasingly aligning on India are increasingly aligning on national security and technology and national security and technology and national security and technology and they're becoming more of a international they're becoming more of a international they're becoming more of a international block block block based on this region. At the same time, based on this region. At the same time, based on this region. At the same time, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan long worked Saudi Arabia and Pakistan long worked Saudi Arabia and Pakistan long worked together on defense are now much more together on defense are now much more together on defense are now much more public about an alliance. Pakistan is public about an alliance. Pakistan is public about an alliance. Pakistan is nuclear, Saudi Arabia is not, but nuclear, Saudi Arabia is not, but nuclear, Saudi Arabia is not, but Pakistan would provide them nuclear Pakistan would provide them nuclear Pakistan would provide them nuclear weapons if they really wanted it. That's weapons if they really wanted it. That's weapons if they really wanted it. That's absolutely something to think about. absolutely something to think about. absolutely something to think about. They are increasingly becoming a They are increasingly becoming a They are increasingly becoming a regional defense quad. Four countries regional defense quad. Four countries regional defense quad. Four countries together with Turkey and Egypt. Big together with Turkey and Egypt. Big together with Turkey and Egypt. Big countries, big populations aligning more countries, big populations aligning more countries, big populations aligning more diplomatically and on defense calling diplomatically and on defense calling diplomatically and on defense calling for a regional security architecture in for a regional security architecture in for a regional security architecture in the region, but that would not be easily the region, but that would not be easily the region, but that would not be easily aligned with the UAE, America, Israel, aligned with the UAE, America, Israel, aligned with the UAE, America, Israel, and with India. So that is also a and with India. So that is also a and with India. So that is also a significant tension. And in the context significant tension. And in the context significant tension. And in the context of all of that, 95 million people in of all of that, 95 million people in of all of that, 95 million people in Iran whose military has been Iran whose military has been Iran whose military has been substantially degraded, whose economy substantially degraded, whose economy substantially degraded, whose economy and industry have been substantially and industry have been substantially and industry have been substantially degraded and who were already running degraded and who were already running degraded and who were already running their economy into the ground before the their economy into the ground before the their economy into the ground before the war happened. These guys aren't winners. war happened. These guys aren't winners. war happened. These guys aren't winners. They're survivors, They're survivors, They're survivors, right? They have influence over the right? They have influence over the right? They have influence over the strait, but they're not winning. And strait, but they're not winning. And strait, but they're not winning. And this is dangerous long term. this is dangerous long term. this is dangerous long term. >> Your firm makes a lot of predictions. So >> Your firm makes a lot of predictions. So >> Your firm makes a lot of predictions. So I I wanted to ask you to help me try and I I wanted to ask you to help me try and I I wanted to ask you to help me try and look forward as to how this conflict look forward as to how this conflict look forward as to how this conflict might end. Um we're in a position now might end. Um we're in a position now might end. Um we're in a position now where it seems that the US aren't going where it seems that the US aren't going where it seems that the US aren't going to give up the demand to Iran that they to give up the demand to Iran that they to give up the demand to Iran that they cease to develop and pursue nuclear cease to develop and pursue nuclear cease to develop and pursue nuclear enrichment. It appears that Iran have enrichment. It appears that Iran have enrichment. It appears that Iran have said that they want the right and they said that they want the right and they said that they want the right and they believe they have the right, they said believe they have the right, they said believe they have the right, they said this before this conflict started to this before this conflict started to this before this conflict started to enrich uranium and to have nuclear power enrich uranium and to have nuclear power enrich uranium and to have nuclear power plants and all these kinds of things. So plants and all these kinds of things. So plants and all these kinds of things. So how does this end? Like Trump's now he's how does this end? Like Trump's now he's how does this end? Like Trump's now he's blockaded the straight off news. blockaded the straight off news. blockaded the straight off news. >> Um we're in another standoff. >> Um we're in another standoff. >> Um we're in another standoff. >> Cease fires in place. >> Cease fires in place. >> Cease fires in place. >> The ceasefires in place which I think he >> The ceasefires in place which I think he >> The ceasefires in place which I think he said was 14 days said was 14 days said was 14 days >> and we're now probably what got 9 10 >> and we're now probably what got 9 10 >> and we're now probably what got 9 10 days left of that. days left of that. days left of that. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> He's thinking a lot about his legacy. He >> He's thinking a lot about his legacy. He >> He's thinking a lot about his legacy. He can't be reelected. He talks sometimes can't be reelected. He talks sometimes can't be reelected. He talks sometimes about, you know, winning the peace prize about, you know, winning the peace prize about, you know, winning the peace prize and want wanting to be on a Mount and want wanting to be on a Mount and want wanting to be on a Mount Rushmore of presidents and all this. So Rushmore of presidents and all this. So Rushmore of presidents and all this. So he he can't just leave. If he just he he can't just leave. If he just he he can't just leave. If he just leaves, then Iran carry on with their leaves, then Iran carry on with their leaves, then Iran carry on with their enrichment program. It goes down in enrichment program. It goes down in enrichment program. It goes down in history almost like a Bush failure, history almost like a Bush failure, history almost like a Bush failure, geopolitical failure. He can't just geopolitical failure. He can't just geopolitical failure. He can't just leave. He has to be seen to win. But leave. He has to be seen to win. But leave. He has to be seen to win. But also Iran can't let him be seen to win. also Iran can't let him be seen to win. also Iran can't let him be seen to win. So So how what happens? I think unlike So So how what happens? I think unlike So So how what happens? I think unlike almost anybody else you can imagine, if almost anybody else you can imagine, if almost anybody else you can imagine, if he decided that he wanted to end this, he decided that he wanted to end this, he decided that he wanted to end this, he could end this. He could just leave he could end this. He could just leave he could end this. He could just leave and he would say, "I won." He's already and he would say, "I won." He's already and he would say, "I won." He's already said this in different ways. I don't said this in different ways. I don't said this in different ways. I don't even care about the nukes because we've even care about the nukes because we've even care about the nukes because we've already intumeded them. They're under already intumeded them. They're under already intumeded them. They're under all this rubble. We've got satellite all this rubble. We've got satellite all this rubble. We've got satellite coverage. If the Iranians try to get at coverage. If the Iranians try to get at coverage. If the Iranians try to get at them, we can hit them back. He's already them, we can hit them back. He's already them, we can hit them back. He's already said that there's already a regime said that there's already a regime said that there's already a regime change. It's already new people. We can change. It's already new people. We can change. It's already new people. We can work. We can talk with these people. He work. We can talk with these people. He work. We can talk with these people. He already said the strait isn't his already said the strait isn't his already said the strait isn't his problem, right? But of course, he's also problem, right? But of course, he's also problem, right? But of course, he's also said different things sometimes in the said different things sometimes in the said different things sometimes in the same tweet. Right. So he he's picking same tweet. Right. So he he's picking same tweet. Right. So he he's picking and choosing. But what I'm suggesting to and choosing. But what I'm suggesting to and choosing. But what I'm suggesting to you is that Trump has already moved you is that Trump has already moved you is that Trump has already moved towards deescalation. towards deescalation. towards deescalation. >> You're spot on when you say he's set the >> You're spot on when you say he's set the >> You're spot on when you say he's set the stage to back out. stage to back out. stage to back out. >> To back out. >> To back out. >> To back out. >> We won. Regime change. Straight is not >> We won. Regime change. Straight is not >> We won. Regime change. Straight is not my problem. We have our own oil. Blah my problem. We have our own oil. Blah my problem. We have our own oil. Blah blah blah blah blah. But then blah blah blah blah. But then blah blah blah blah. But then >> if you don't open that straight, I'm >> if you don't open that straight, I'm >> if you don't open that straight, I'm going to end civilization. going to end civilization. going to end civilization. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> So which was which didn't seem to fit. >> So which was which didn't seem to fit. >> So which was which didn't seem to fit. It seemed like he was setting the stage It seemed like he was setting the stage It seemed like he was setting the stage to back out. And then suddenly the to back out. And then suddenly the to back out. And then suddenly the civilization tweet, I'm going to bum civilization tweet, I'm going to bum civilization tweet, I'm going to bum bomb your bridges and your nuclear power bomb your bridges and your nuclear power bomb your bridges and your nuclear power plants. Which suddenly made me think, plants. Which suddenly made me think, plants. Which suddenly made me think, okay, so maybe he does really care. okay, so maybe he does really care. okay, so maybe he does really care. >> And wasn't plausible, by the way. I >> And wasn't plausible, by the way. I >> And wasn't plausible, by the way. I mean, there was no chance that he was mean, there was no chance that he was mean, there was no chance that he was actually going to do all that that actually going to do all that that actually going to do all that that evening. evening. evening. >> So why didn't he just back out? >> So why didn't he just back out? >> So why didn't he just back out? >> Well, I do not want to be Trump's >> Well, I do not want to be Trump's >> Well, I do not want to be Trump's psychologist, right? It is very clear psychologist, right? It is very clear psychologist, right? It is very clear that he is impulsive and that he does that he is impulsive and that he does that he is impulsive and that he does not have much impulse control. Nor does not have much impulse control. Nor does not have much impulse control. Nor does he create around him mechanisms that he create around him mechanisms that he create around him mechanisms that create impulse control that enforce create impulse control that enforce create impulse control that enforce impulse control. He's on his phone all impulse control. He's on his phone all impulse control. He's on his phone all the time. He watches the media the time. He watches the media the time. He watches the media relentlessly. People engage with him relentlessly. People engage with him relentlessly. People engage with him from all over the world on his cell from all over the world on his cell from all over the world on his cell phone and he has recency bias. The thing phone and he has recency bias. The thing phone and he has recency bias. The thing he heard and saw last, he frequently he heard and saw last, he frequently he heard and saw last, he frequently focuses on. focuses on. focuses on. >> But he also watches the markets. He >> But he also watches the markets. He >> But he also watches the markets. He seems obsessed with the stock stock seems obsessed with the stock stock seems obsessed with the stock stock market. market. market. >> That's why so many of the announcements >> That's why so many of the announcements >> That's why so many of the announcements he makes are right before or right after he makes are right before or right after he makes are right before or right after the market opens. And obviously there's the market opens. And obviously there's the market opens. And obviously there's been a lot of insider trading concerns been a lot of insider trading concerns been a lot of insider trading concerns around that too. And people there's he's around that too. And people there's he's around that too. And people there's he's concerned about personal enrichment and concerned about personal enrichment and concerned about personal enrichment and people around him making billions of people around him making billions of people around him making billions of dollars. That plays in too. I I wish it dollars. That plays in too. I I wish it dollars. That plays in too. I I wish it didn't. It's it's horrible to talk didn't. It's it's horrible to talk didn't. It's it's horrible to talk about. But you can't avoid that topic. about. But you can't avoid that topic. about. But you can't avoid that topic. What happens? You want to know what What happens? You want to know what What happens? You want to know what happens? I don't have a crystal ball. No happens? I don't have a crystal ball. No happens? I don't have a crystal ball. No one does. But where I think this could one does. But where I think this could one does. But where I think this could be going on the basis of that, the most be going on the basis of that, the most be going on the basis of that, the most likely outcome is that the ceasefire is likely outcome is that the ceasefire is likely outcome is that the ceasefire is eventually extended. That we have those eventually extended. That we have those eventually extended. That we have those talks that were 21 hours that were talks that were 21 hours that were talks that were 21 hours that were substantive. There'll be more talks. substantive. There'll be more talks. substantive. There'll be more talks. Maybe not with the vice president, but Maybe not with the vice president, but Maybe not with the vice president, but there'll be more talks. They'll become there'll be more talks. They'll become there'll be more talks. They'll become more substantive. and that eventually I more substantive. and that eventually I more substantive. and that eventually I expect that the Iranians are more likely expect that the Iranians are more likely expect that the Iranians are more likely to give on the nuclear issue and on to give on the nuclear issue and on to give on the nuclear issue and on enrichment enrichment enrichment if they're able to maintain a privileged if they're able to maintain a privileged if they're able to maintain a privileged position on transit through the straight position on transit through the straight position on transit through the straight because that will help provide them with because that will help provide them with because that will help provide them with money and with security. They get a money and with security. They get a money and with security. They get a level of deterrence if everybody knows level of deterrence if everybody knows level of deterrence if everybody knows these guys could shut down the straight these guys could shut down the straight these guys could shut down the straight in the future. That helps them. They in the future. That helps them. They in the future. That helps them. They never had nukes. They weren't going to never had nukes. They weren't going to never had nukes. They weren't going to get nukes. If they got nukes, they were get nukes. If they got nukes, they were get nukes. If they got nukes, they were going to get blown up. Like everyone going to get blown up. Like everyone going to get blown up. Like everyone knew that they were two weeks away if knew that they were two weeks away if knew that they were two weeks away if they had access to the material and they they had access to the material and they they had access to the material and they reprocessed the nuclear grade and they reprocessed the nuclear grade and they reprocessed the nuclear grade and they weren't stopped by the Americans and the weren't stopped by the Americans and the weren't stopped by the Americans and the Israelis. That's a lot of ifands, right? Israelis. That's a lot of ifands, right? Israelis. That's a lot of ifands, right? So, but here they've got influence over So, but here they've got influence over So, but here they've got influence over the strait. They have it. They've used the strait. They have it. They've used the strait. They have it. They've used it. They're using it. They're making it. They're using it. They're making it. They're using it. They're making money. Trump does not have a military money. Trump does not have a military money. Trump does not have a military plan to hit them back. So, I think that plan to hit them back. So, I think that plan to hit them back. So, I think that is the most likely outcome. If that is is the most likely outcome. If that is is the most likely outcome. If that is the case, then over time the Iranians the case, then over time the Iranians the case, then over time the Iranians will cut more deals with more countries will cut more deals with more countries will cut more deals with more countries to get more oil out. And meanwhile, to get more oil out. And meanwhile, to get more oil out. And meanwhile, there will be after the ceasefire is in there will be after the ceasefire is in there will be after the ceasefire is in place and strong, then the Europeans and place and strong, then the Europeans and place and strong, then the Europeans and other countries, the Indians, other other countries, the Indians, other other countries, the Indians, other countries will come in and they will countries will come in and they will countries will come in and they will start escorting ships to create a more start escorting ships to create a more start escorting ships to create a more secure environment in the strait itself. secure environment in the strait itself. secure environment in the strait itself. That is the good scenario or it's the That is the good scenario or it's the That is the good scenario or it's the less bad scenario because all of this less bad scenario because all of this less bad scenario because all of this should have been avoided. I want to make should have been avoided. I want to make should have been avoided. I want to make sure I'm clear on this scenario. You're sure I'm clear on this scenario. You're sure I'm clear on this scenario. You're saying that they'll concede on the saying that they'll concede on the saying that they'll concede on the nuclear point Iran potentially nuclear point Iran potentially nuclear point Iran potentially >> at least somewhat. I think they will >> at least somewhat. I think they will >> at least somewhat. I think they will compromise on the nuclear point, compromise on the nuclear point, compromise on the nuclear point, >> but in turn they'll get more control >> but in turn they'll get more control >> but in turn they'll get more control over the straight. Yes. over the straight. Yes. over the straight. Yes. >> And what does that mean? That they'll be >> And what does that mean? That they'll be >> And what does that mean? That they'll be able to decide who goes through there. able to decide who goes through there. able to decide who goes through there. They'll get a toll. Oh, they'll get They'll get a toll. Oh, they'll get They'll get a toll. Oh, they'll get >> they'll be able to charge. And by the >> they'll be able to charge. And by the >> they'll be able to charge. And by the way, you could define them charging the way, you could define them charging the way, you could define them charging the toll as part of the reconstruction money toll as part of the reconstruction money toll as part of the reconstruction money that they're going to need for the war that they're going to need for the war that they're going to need for the war that they just that they just that they just >> reparations for. >> reparations for. >> reparations for. >> I mean, they'll call it reparations. No >> I mean, they'll call it reparations. No >> I mean, they'll call it reparations. No one else will call it reparations, but one else will call it reparations, but one else will call it reparations, but that's fine. I think that is the good that's fine. I think that is the good that's fine. I think that is the good scenario again, the less bad scenario, scenario again, the less bad scenario, scenario again, the less bad scenario, and I would say it is more likely than and I would say it is more likely than and I would say it is more likely than not. There is another scenario, right? not. There is another scenario, right? not. There is another scenario, right? And the other scenario is that And the other scenario is that And the other scenario is that everything that Trump has been saying is everything that Trump has been saying is everything that Trump has been saying is because he doesn't yet have a military because he doesn't yet have a military because he doesn't yet have a military plan. Over the last days with all this plan. Over the last days with all this plan. Over the last days with all this ceasefire, there's still this new ceasefire, there's still this new ceasefire, there's still this new aircraft strike group that is motoring aircraft strike group that is motoring aircraft strike group that is motoring its way over to the Gulf. You got its way over to the Gulf. You got its way over to the Gulf. You got thousands more American troops that are thousands more American troops that are thousands more American troops that are heading into position, ground troops, heading into position, ground troops, heading into position, ground troops, right? They're going to have almost right? They're going to have almost right? They're going to have almost 15,000 total that will be deployed by 15,000 total that will be deployed by 15,000 total that will be deployed by Trump since this war started. They're Trump since this war started. They're Trump since this war started. They're going to be there in the next 2 weeks. going to be there in the next 2 weeks. going to be there in the next 2 weeks. Once Trump has them there, he can use Once Trump has them there, he can use Once Trump has them there, he can use them. And there are lots of things he them. And there are lots of things he them. And there are lots of things he might use them on. He keeps saying, I might use them on. He keeps saying, I might use them on. He keeps saying, I keep seeing him go back. Before I was keep seeing him go back. Before I was keep seeing him go back. Before I was talking about all the ways he was talking about all the ways he was talking about all the ways he was saying, we don't need to defend the saying, we don't need to defend the saying, we don't need to defend the strait. We don't need the nuclear. we strait. We don't need the nuclear. we strait. We don't need the nuclear. we can hit them. But he also has been can hit them. But he also has been can hit them. But he also has been saying we should take the oil. saying we should take the oil. saying we should take the oil. >> I've heard him say this on a number of >> I've heard him say this on a number of >> I've heard him say this on a number of occasions. I've also seen him say if occasions. I've also seen him say if occasions. I've also seen him say if just the American people were a little just the American people were a little just the American people were a little more patient, we can take the oil. What more patient, we can take the oil. What more patient, we can take the oil. What does he mean by taking the oil? That's does he mean by taking the oil? That's does he mean by taking the oil? That's not a block. B blockade isn't taking the not a block. B blockade isn't taking the not a block. B blockade isn't taking the oil. Blockade is stopping the Iranians oil. Blockade is stopping the Iranians oil. Blockade is stopping the Iranians from getting the oil out. Take the oil from getting the oil out. Take the oil from getting the oil out. Take the oil is control the export facility on Car is control the export facility on Car is control the export facility on Car Island. Right. And and explain this for Island. Right. And and explain this for Island. Right. And and explain this for for anyone that doesn't know what Car for anyone that doesn't know what Car for anyone that doesn't know what Car Island is and the significance of it in Island is and the significance of it in Island is and the significance of it in the oil situation. the oil situation. the oil situation. >> This is this is a comparatively small >> This is this is a comparatively small >> This is this is a comparatively small island. It's about half the size of island. It's about half the size of island. It's about half the size of Manhattan. Manhattan. Manhattan. >> It's not incredibly fortified or >> It's not incredibly fortified or >> It's not incredibly fortified or defended. Um and it's very close to the defended. Um and it's very close to the defended. Um and it's very close to the Iranian shore and it is uh responsible Iranian shore and it is uh responsible Iranian shore and it is uh responsible for 90% of the export of Iranian oil. for 90% of the export of Iranian oil. for 90% of the export of Iranian oil. sentcom the central command say that you sentcom the central command say that you sentcom the central command say that you can take Car Island with 12 to 15,000 can take Car Island with 12 to 15,000 can take Car Island with 12 to 15,000 men relatively comfortably. men relatively comfortably. men relatively comfortably. >> So where is Car Island on here? >> So where is Car Island on here? >> So where is Car Island on here? >> Yeah. So Car Island is right about here. >> Yeah. So Car Island is right about here. >> Yeah. So Car Island is right about here. It's not in the straight itself, but it It's not in the straight itself, but it It's not in the straight itself, but it is this is it's right off of the Iranian is this is it's right off of the Iranian is this is it's right off of the Iranian coast and and we're talking about 90% of coast and and we're talking about 90% of coast and and we're talking about 90% of Iranian oil export comes out through Iranian oil export comes out through Iranian oil export comes out through there. So if the Americans take it, there. So if the Americans take it, there. So if the Americans take it, obviously very easy for the Iranians to obviously very easy for the Iranians to obviously very easy for the Iranians to be engaged in strikes against them, but be engaged in strikes against them, but be engaged in strikes against them, but the Iranians will not be able to get any the Iranians will not be able to get any the Iranians will not be able to get any oil out. So suddenly the Americans have oil out. So suddenly the Americans have oil out. So suddenly the Americans have far more leverage over the Iranian far more leverage over the Iranian far more leverage over the Iranian economy, right? In a very direct way, in economy, right? In a very direct way, in economy, right? In a very direct way, in a very targeted way. And that is the way a very targeted way. And that is the way a very targeted way. And that is the way that you take the oil. that you take the oil. that you take the oil. >> Could Trump take the actually take it >> Could Trump take the actually take it >> Could Trump take the actually take it out of this region somehow? Is there out of this region somehow? Is there out of this region somehow? Is there like another passage through that like another passage through that like another passage through that doesn't involve Okay, so he could just doesn't involve Okay, so he could just doesn't involve Okay, so he could just stop the oil. stop the oil. stop the oil. >> He could stop the oil. Okay. >> He could stop the oil. Okay. >> He could stop the oil. Okay. >> But again, if he has control of Carg, >> But again, if he has control of Carg, >> But again, if he has control of Carg, the oil coming out of CarG, if you want the oil coming out of CarG, if you want the oil coming out of CarG, if you want to have bring it to market, the only to have bring it to market, the only to have bring it to market, the only ones that could do it would then be the ones that could do it would then be the ones that could do it would then be the Americans. Now, the Iranians at that Americans. Now, the Iranians at that Americans. Now, the Iranians at that point could still disrupt the strait. point could still disrupt the strait. point could still disrupt the strait. And there are other conversations, there And there are other conversations, there And there are other conversations, there other military plans about how you might other military plans about how you might other military plans about how you might be able to take coastal regions, raids be able to take coastal regions, raids be able to take coastal regions, raids on the territory that would take out on the territory that would take out on the territory that would take out more ballistic missile sites, go after more ballistic missile sites, go after more ballistic missile sites, go after their drones. All of this takes more their drones. All of this takes more their drones. All of this takes more troops. All this takes more casualties, troops. All this takes more casualties, troops. All this takes more casualties, but would also give you more capacity to but would also give you more capacity to but would also give you more capacity to eventually enforce a navigable straight eventually enforce a navigable straight eventually enforce a navigable straight with escorts, which right now you can't with escorts, which right now you can't with escorts, which right now you can't do. Right now, the Iranians can prevent do. Right now, the Iranians can prevent do. Right now, the Iranians can prevent you from getting any ships out if they you from getting any ships out if they you from getting any ships out if they wish to. I I think that the likelihood wish to. I I think that the likelihood wish to. I I think that the likelihood that Trump is ultimately going to make that Trump is ultimately going to make that Trump is ultimately going to make that order is well below 50%. I think that order is well below 50%. I think that order is well below 50%. I think that the worst scenario is not the more that the worst scenario is not the more that the worst scenario is not the more likely one because he understands how likely one because he understands how likely one because he understands how unpopular it will be. But it does mean unpopular it will be. But it does mean unpopular it will be. But it does mean that he's going to have to sell a pretty that he's going to have to sell a pretty that he's going to have to sell a pretty ugly pig with lipstick on it. ugly pig with lipstick on it. ugly pig with lipstick on it. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> It means that because this was the >> It means that because this was the >> It means that because this was the problem Trump has is he can't blame problem Trump has is he can't blame problem Trump has is he can't blame anyone else for this. anyone else for this. anyone else for this. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> He's the decider. Like he did it. I >> He's the decider. Like he did it. I >> He's the decider. Like he did it. I mean, he's got his secretaries in the mean, he's got his secretaries in the mean, he's got his secretaries in the cabinet. They're all saying, "Well, the cabinet. They're all saying, "Well, the cabinet. They're all saying, "Well, the war, it's up to Trump. He's got the war war, it's up to Trump. He's got the war war, it's up to Trump. He's got the war goals. It'll be over when he says it. goals. It'll be over when he says it. goals. It'll be over when he says it. It's all about Trump. He can blame NATO It's all about Trump. He can blame NATO It's all about Trump. He can blame NATO for not want to join him. They're for not want to join him. They're for not want to join him. They're joining him. It was his war of choice. joining him. It was his war of choice. joining him. It was his war of choice. and he's never been responsible directly and he's never been responsible directly and he's never been responsible directly for an economic downturn. I mean, the for an economic downturn. I mean, the for an economic downturn. I mean, the the pandemic wasn't his fault, right? the pandemic wasn't his fault, right? the pandemic wasn't his fault, right? This is an economic downturn with oil This is an economic downturn with oil This is an economic downturn with oil prices shooting up, gas is over four prices shooting up, gas is over four prices shooting up, gas is over four bucks a gallon, diesel's over five, bucks a gallon, diesel's over five, bucks a gallon, diesel's over five, inflation's ticking up, food prices are inflation's ticking up, food prices are inflation's ticking up, food prices are going up, he's wildly underwater on going up, he's wildly underwater on going up, he's wildly underwater on affordability, and he is completely affordability, and he is completely affordability, and he is completely responsible for it. No one else is responsible for it. No one else is responsible for it. No one else is responsible. And zooming out even responsible. And zooming out even responsible. And zooming out even further, when we think about this on a further, when we think about this on a further, when we think about this on a global scale, you've got Russia, who are global scale, you've got Russia, who are global scale, you've got Russia, who are at war with the Ukraine, that seems to at war with the Ukraine, that seems to at war with the Ukraine, that seems to have just completely vanished from the have just completely vanished from the have just completely vanished from the news cycle, by the way. news cycle, by the way. news cycle, by the way. >> It has not in in Europe, I promise you, >> It has not in in Europe, I promise you, >> It has not in in Europe, I promise you, but in the United States, they're but in the United States, they're but in the United States, they're talking a lot less about it. It's true. talking a lot less about it. It's true. talking a lot less about it. It's true. In Poland, this is a very big issue. In In Poland, this is a very big issue. In In Poland, this is a very big issue. In the Baltics, it is a very big issue. the Baltics, it is a very big issue. the Baltics, it is a very big issue. >> And then you've got China who must be >> And then you've got China who must be >> And then you've got China who must be laughing because it looks like the laughing because it looks like the laughing because it looks like the United States are just sort of United States are just sort of United States are just sort of selfharming themselves. selfharming themselves. selfharming themselves. >> Yep. And then you've got Europe, which >> Yep. And then you've got Europe, which >> Yep. And then you've got Europe, which is the last power, who seem to now just is the last power, who seem to now just is the last power, who seem to now just be sort of colluding with themselves and be sort of colluding with themselves and be sort of colluding with themselves and getting together and saying, "Listen, getting together and saying, "Listen, getting together and saying, "Listen, you know, we're not going to help the US you know, we're not going to help the US you know, we're not going to help the US anymore." I mean, we I grew up through anymore." I mean, we I grew up through anymore." I mean, we I grew up through all these little conflicts and wars, and all these little conflicts and wars, and all these little conflicts and wars, and the UK always seemed to come to the US. the UK always seemed to come to the US. the UK always seemed to come to the US. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> And for the first time ever, I'm >> And for the first time ever, I'm >> And for the first time ever, I'm watching the UK go, "Actually, no, you watching the UK go, "Actually, no, you watching the UK go, "Actually, no, you do this yourself. do this yourself. do this yourself. >> I'm going to meet with Macron in France, >> I'm going to meet with Macron in France, >> I'm going to meet with Macron in France, and we're going to we're going to uh and we're going to we're going to uh and we're going to we're going to uh huddle and um go it alone." huddle and um go it alone." huddle and um go it alone." >> What is that big picture? And which part >> What is that big picture? And which part >> What is that big picture? And which part of that big picture is most pertinent to of that big picture is most pertinent to of that big picture is most pertinent to talk about? Yeah, China is the most talk about? Yeah, China is the most talk about? Yeah, China is the most pertinent because it's the most pertinent because it's the most pertinent because it's the most powerful. Russia is the easiest to deal powerful. Russia is the easiest to deal powerful. Russia is the easiest to deal with. Um, which is that for the with. Um, which is that for the with. Um, which is that for the Russians, they don't have um much that Russians, they don't have um much that Russians, they don't have um much that they produce that's manufactured. They they produce that's manufactured. They they produce that's manufactured. They don't have very good technology, right? don't have very good technology, right? don't have very good technology, right? They're they're relying more on the They're they're relying more on the They're they're relying more on the Chinese. Chinese. Chinese. >> They've got oil there, haven't they? >> They've got oil there, haven't they? >> They've got oil there, haven't they? >> That they manufacture. They've got oil, >> That they manufacture. They've got oil, >> That they manufacture. They've got oil, they've got gas, they've got fertilizer, they've got gas, they've got fertilizer, they've got gas, they've got fertilizer, right? All the things with the prices right? All the things with the prices right? All the things with the prices have just spiked through the roof. have just spiked through the roof. have just spiked through the roof. That's what the Russians have. That's That's what the Russians have. That's That's what the Russians have. That's where their power is. And so they are where their power is. And so they are where their power is. And so they are making so much more money. Their economy making so much more money. Their economy making so much more money. Their economy was really getting squeezed with all the was really getting squeezed with all the was really getting squeezed with all the sanctions. Now they're getting so much sanctions. Now they're getting so much sanctions. Now they're getting so much more for everything that they actually more for everything that they actually more for everything that they actually sell. And the Americans have reduced sell. And the Americans have reduced sell. And the Americans have reduced sanctions like they did on Iran against sanctions like they did on Iran against sanctions like they did on Iran against Russia because Trump cares about the Russia because Trump cares about the Russia because Trump cares about the markets as you say. So Russia's in a markets as you say. So Russia's in a markets as you say. So Russia's in a better position for that reason. And better position for that reason. And better position for that reason. And they're in a better position because all they're in a better position because all they're in a better position because all the weapons the Americans have been the weapons the Americans have been the weapons the Americans have been selling to the Europeans to get to selling to the Europeans to get to selling to the Europeans to get to Ukraine, America now needs to get to the Ukraine, America now needs to get to the Ukraine, America now needs to get to the Middle East. So the the Ukrainians are Middle East. So the the Ukrainians are Middle East. So the the Ukrainians are going to have a harder time defending going to have a harder time defending going to have a harder time defending their cities against Russian ballistic their cities against Russian ballistic their cities against Russian ballistic missiles, against Russian drones. So missiles, against Russian drones. So missiles, against Russian drones. So this clearly means that Putin will be this clearly means that Putin will be this clearly means that Putin will be much much less interested in a much much less interested in a much much less interested in a ceasefire, which let's face it, he ceasefire, which let's face it, he ceasefire, which let's face it, he wasn't really very interested in to wasn't really very interested in to wasn't really very interested in to begin with. Trump at the beginning of begin with. Trump at the beginning of begin with. Trump at the beginning of this term promised he would end this this term promised he would end this this term promised he would end this war. He was hugely frustrated. He goes war. He was hugely frustrated. He goes war. He was hugely frustrated. He goes to Israel to announce the Gaza to Israel to announce the Gaza to Israel to announce the Gaza ceasefire. It's a big win. the Knesset, ceasefire. It's a big win. the Knesset, ceasefire. It's a big win. the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, their standing the Israeli parliament, their standing the Israeli parliament, their standing ovation. He's like, you know, I thought ovation. He's like, you know, I thought ovation. He's like, you know, I thought I was going to get the Russia war done I was going to get the Russia war done I was going to get the Russia war done and I failed it. They haven't been able and I failed it. They haven't been able and I failed it. They haven't been able to do that. I got this one instead. Like to do that. I got this one instead. Like to do that. I got this one instead. Like Trump never brings up his own failures. Trump never brings up his own failures. Trump never brings up his own failures. But this really bothers him. So here But this really bothers him. So here But this really bothers him. So here you've got yet more ability for the you've got yet more ability for the you've got yet more ability for the Russians to say, "We're going to Russians to say, "We're going to Russians to say, "We're going to persist." And it makes it more likely persist." And it makes it more likely persist." And it makes it more likely that Trump will eventually do a deal that Trump will eventually do a deal that Trump will eventually do a deal with the Russians over the heads of the with the Russians over the heads of the with the Russians over the heads of the Europeans. So that's that's the Russia Europeans. So that's that's the Russia Europeans. So that's that's the Russia issue kind of in a little box. Now issue kind of in a little box. Now issue kind of in a little box. Now Europe, we already talked about how Europe, we already talked about how Europe, we already talked about how Europe is having its problems Europe is having its problems Europe is having its problems economically. It doesn't have the economically. It doesn't have the economically. It doesn't have the productivity. It doesn't have the productivity. It doesn't have the productivity. It doesn't have the growth. growth. growth. >> What What did Europe do wrong in your >> What What did Europe do wrong in your >> What What did Europe do wrong in your view? Like how did I'm a European, I view? Like how did I'm a European, I view? Like how did I'm a European, I guess. I was born in Botswana in Africa, guess. I was born in Botswana in Africa, guess. I was born in Botswana in Africa, but I moved to the UK when I was young, but I moved to the UK when I was young, but I moved to the UK when I was young, so I guess I'm I'm British. Um, so I guess I'm I'm British. Um, so I guess I'm I'm British. Um, >> what did the country do wrong? because >> what did the country do wrong? because >> what did the country do wrong? because the country was so strong and powerful the country was so strong and powerful the country was so strong and powerful and respected when I was younger and I and respected when I was younger and I and respected when I was younger and I love Britain. But it appears on a global love Britain. But it appears on a global love Britain. But it appears on a global stage that that perception has changed. stage that that perception has changed. stage that that perception has changed. The US are talking to us like a lap dog. The US are talking to us like a lap dog. The US are talking to us like a lap dog. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> At Davos, I saw the talks. They're like, >> At Davos, I saw the talks. They're like, >> At Davos, I saw the talks. They're like, "You need to get your together and "You need to get your together and "You need to get your together and be stronger and stop being so woke blah be stronger and stop being so woke blah be stronger and stop being so woke blah blah blah blah." blah blah blah." blah blah blah." >> Yeah. Well, first, the the Americans >> Yeah. Well, first, the the Americans >> Yeah. Well, first, the the Americans talking to the Europeans that way has a talking to the Europeans that way has a talking to the Europeans that way has a lot more to do with the change in lot more to do with the change in lot more to do with the change in administration. Okay. I don't think any administration. Okay. I don't think any administration. Okay. I don't think any other Democratic or Republican president other Democratic or Republican president other Democratic or Republican president would do what Trump is doing to his would do what Trump is doing to his would do what Trump is doing to his closest allies. I think that's more closest allies. I think that's more closest allies. I think that's more unique. But but it is certainly true unique. But but it is certainly true unique. But but it is certainly true that over the last 30 years, there have that over the last 30 years, there have that over the last 30 years, there have been two really big geopolitical shifts. been two really big geopolitical shifts. been two really big geopolitical shifts. Right? The United States has shifted its Right? The United States has shifted its Right? The United States has shifted its orientation, but not geopolitical power. orientation, but not geopolitical power. orientation, but not geopolitical power. But in terms of power shift, you've got But in terms of power shift, you've got But in terms of power shift, you've got the rise of China and the global south, the rise of China and the global south, the rise of China and the global south, India in particular after China, but India in particular after China, but India in particular after China, but China is the biggest piece of that. And China is the biggest piece of that. And China is the biggest piece of that. And then you have the decline of American then you have the decline of American then you have the decline of American allies. allies. allies. Europe, Canada, Japan, South Korea. Europe, Canada, Japan, South Korea. Europe, Canada, Japan, South Korea. These are countries most of which are These are countries most of which are These are countries most of which are contracting demographically, right? contracting demographically, right? contracting demographically, right? They're countries most of which that They're countries most of which that They're countries most of which that have much flatter growth and much more have much flatter growth and much more have much flatter growth and much more reduced productivity than the United reduced productivity than the United reduced productivity than the United States. They've not been investing in States. They've not been investing in States. They've not been investing in their own defense. They've not been their own defense. They've not been their own defense. They've not been investing in their own technology. So investing in their own technology. So investing in their own technology. So what you see is an asymmetry. At the what you see is an asymmetry. At the what you see is an asymmetry. At the same time that the Americans are saying same time that the Americans are saying same time that the Americans are saying we're not interested in the rest of the we're not interested in the rest of the we're not interested in the rest of the world. We don't want to do all this world. We don't want to do all this world. We don't want to do all this stuff. Want don't want to fight the stuff. Want don't want to fight the stuff. Want don't want to fight the wars. Don't want free trade. You're also wars. Don't want free trade. You're also wars. Don't want free trade. You're also seeing a reality where those countries seeing a reality where those countries seeing a reality where those countries don't bring as much to the table in a don't bring as much to the table in a don't bring as much to the table in a conversation with the United States. So conversation with the United States. So conversation with the United States. So the the so-called draggy plan, the the the so-called draggy plan, the the the so-called draggy plan, the 800page plan by the former central bank 800page plan by the former central bank 800page plan by the former central bank head in Europe, the ECB, Mario Draghy, head in Europe, the ECB, Mario Draghy, head in Europe, the ECB, Mario Draghy, they called him Super Mario. He had this they called him Super Mario. He had this they called him Super Mario. He had this competitiveness report that all of these competitiveness report that all of these competitiveness report that all of these things that the Europeans needed to do things that the Europeans needed to do things that the Europeans needed to do and he would say the Brits as well to to and he would say the Brits as well to to and he would say the Brits as well to to address that to build entrepreneurship address that to build entrepreneurship address that to build entrepreneurship to spend in ways that would actually to spend in ways that would actually to spend in ways that would actually bring a return long-term to like invest bring a return long-term to like invest bring a return long-term to like invest in new technologies to reduce red tape. in new technologies to reduce red tape. in new technologies to reduce red tape. The plan is there. But unlike the United The plan is there. But unlike the United The plan is there. But unlike the United States, unlike China, Europe is not a States, unlike China, Europe is not a States, unlike China, Europe is not a country. Europe is 27 countries in the country. Europe is 27 countries in the country. Europe is 27 countries in the EU and the United Kingdom which decided EU and the United Kingdom which decided EU and the United Kingdom which decided for Brexit. It's a lot harder when you for Brexit. It's a lot harder when you for Brexit. It's a lot harder when you don't have scale. It's just harder. And don't have scale. It's just harder. And don't have scale. It's just harder. And when you have elections every, you know, when you have elections every, you know, when you have elections every, you know, sort of couple every few years, it's sort of couple every few years, it's sort of couple every few years, it's just more challenging. You can't do the just more challenging. You can't do the just more challenging. You can't do the sort of stuff that the UAE or the Saudis sort of stuff that the UAE or the Saudis sort of stuff that the UAE or the Saudis or the Singaporeans or the Chinese can or the Singaporeans or the Chinese can or the Singaporeans or the Chinese can do at scale long term. So, as a do at scale long term. So, as a do at scale long term. So, as a consequence, what did Europe do wrong? consequence, what did Europe do wrong? consequence, what did Europe do wrong? Europe focused, Europe believed that the Europe focused, Europe believed that the Europe focused, Europe believed that the world after the wall came down in 1989, world after the wall came down in 1989, world after the wall came down in 1989, after the Soviet Union collapsed in after the Soviet Union collapsed in after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, they believed that the world was 1991, they believed that the world was 1991, they believed that the world was just going to be peaceful, that everyone just going to be peaceful, that everyone just going to be peaceful, that everyone was going to have a system like the was going to have a system like the was going to have a system like the Europeans did. So, they didn't need to Europeans did. So, they didn't need to Europeans did. So, they didn't need to invest in invest in defense. And it was invest in invest in defense. And it was invest in invest in defense. And it was okay if they didn't invest in lots of okay if they didn't invest in lots of okay if they didn't invest in lots of technology because they had friends that technology because they had friends that technology because they had friends that they could work with and maybe their they could work with and maybe their they could work with and maybe their growth wouldn't be as big, but their growth wouldn't be as big, but their growth wouldn't be as big, but their quality of life would be so high. And quality of life would be so high. And quality of life would be so high. And they were completely wrong. China did they were completely wrong. China did they were completely wrong. China did not. They got wealthier, but they didn't not. They got wealthier, but they didn't not. They got wealthier, but they didn't suddenly align with the United States suddenly align with the United States suddenly align with the United States and Europe. China didn't become a free and Europe. China didn't become a free and Europe. China didn't become a free market economy. China didn't become a market economy. China didn't become a market economy. China didn't become a democracy. China is a consolidated democracy. China is a consolidated democracy. China is a consolidated dictatorship under Xihinping with no dictatorship under Xihinping with no dictatorship under Xihinping with no term limits and with control of the term limits and with control of the term limits and with control of the economy, state control of the economy. economy, state control of the economy. economy, state control of the economy. And that that's a not an easy And that that's a not an easy And that that's a not an easy environment for the Europeans to be environment for the Europeans to be environment for the Europeans to be comfortable being non-competitive. comfortable being non-competitive. comfortable being non-competitive. >> A lot of this come down to energy and >> A lot of this come down to energy and >> A lot of this come down to energy and productivity. productivity. productivity. >> The cost of energy, >> The cost of energy, >> The cost of energy, >> the cost of energy. So a lot of these >> the cost of energy. So a lot of these >> the cost of energy. So a lot of these countries decided to carry on drilling countries decided to carry on drilling countries decided to carry on drilling oil and pursuing nuclear and a lot of oil and pursuing nuclear and a lot of oil and pursuing nuclear and a lot of the European countries decided to go for the European countries decided to go for the European countries decided to go for net zero where they tried to focus more net zero where they tried to focus more net zero where they tried to focus more on sort of sustainable energy sources on sort of sustainable energy sources on sort of sustainable energy sources >> whereas China didn't seem to give a >> whereas China didn't seem to give a >> whereas China didn't seem to give a quite frankly the US didn't really seem quite frankly the US didn't really seem quite frankly the US didn't really seem to care much um and then also on this to care much um and then also on this to care much um and then also on this point of entrepreneurship and innovation point of entrepreneurship and innovation point of entrepreneurship and innovation these the US and China have both really these the US and China have both really these the US and China have both really aggressively pursued entrepreneurship aggressively pursued entrepreneurship aggressively pursued entrepreneurship and innovation and new technologies and innovation and new technologies and innovation and new technologies whereas one could make the case that the whereas one could make the case that the whereas one could make the case that the European environment has been less European environment has been less European environment has been less friendly ly to new technologies and friendly ly to new technologies and friendly ly to new technologies and innovation. innovation. innovation. >> So the the Chinese, you said the Chinese >> So the the Chinese, you said the Chinese >> So the the Chinese, you said the Chinese didn't really give a Not true. The didn't really give a Not true. The didn't really give a Not true. The Chinese have invested in everything. So Chinese have invested in everything. So Chinese have invested in everything. So the Chinese know that they still need the Chinese know that they still need the Chinese know that they still need lots of dirty coal in order to power um lots of dirty coal in order to power um lots of dirty coal in order to power um their industry, but they also have their industry, but they also have their industry, but they also have invested like nobody else in green invested like nobody else in green invested like nobody else in green technologies at scale, technologies at scale, technologies at scale, >> solar and things like that. >> solar and things like that. >> solar and things like that. >> Solar and wind and their their car >> Solar and wind and their their car >> Solar and wind and their their car companies are the electric vehicle companies are the electric vehicle companies are the electric vehicle leaders in the world. and batteries that leaders in the world. and batteries that leaders in the world. and batteries that are the best batteries, the most are the best batteries, the most are the best batteries, the most efficient batteries at scale in the efficient batteries at scale in the efficient batteries at scale in the world and all of the the the materials, world and all of the the the materials, world and all of the the the materials, the raw materials that go into producing the raw materials that go into producing the raw materials that go into producing those. The Chinese have invested in this those. The Chinese have invested in this those. The Chinese have invested in this for decades now. And nuclear, right? for decades now. And nuclear, right? for decades now. And nuclear, right? While the while the Europeans have, with While the while the Europeans have, with While the while the Europeans have, with the exception of France, France is, you the exception of France, France is, you the exception of France, France is, you know, has heavy nuclear and that's know, has heavy nuclear and that's know, has heavy nuclear and that's helped them in this crisis, most of the helped them in this crisis, most of the helped them in this crisis, most of the Europeans have turned away from nuclear, Europeans have turned away from nuclear, Europeans have turned away from nuclear, the Europeans have not done an allforall the Europeans have not done an allforall the Europeans have not done an allforall approach. The Europeans have done a approach. The Europeans have done a approach. The Europeans have done a let's lean into green but let's make let's lean into green but let's make let's lean into green but let's make other technologies more challenging other technologies more challenging other technologies more challenging including nuclear which should be seen including nuclear which should be seen including nuclear which should be seen as a green technology. So yeah there's as a green technology. So yeah there's as a green technology. So yeah there's no question that that has inhibited no question that that has inhibited no question that that has inhibited growth in Europe. The United States has growth in Europe. The United States has growth in Europe. The United States has been on again off again. You've got one been on again off again. You've got one been on again off again. You've got one administration that's leaning into administration that's leaning into administration that's leaning into green, the next one that's not when green, the next one that's not when green, the next one that's not when America should be doing America today is America should be doing America today is America should be doing America today is the world's leading oil producer by a the world's leading oil producer by a the world's leading oil producer by a long margin and fracking natural gas as long margin and fracking natural gas as long margin and fracking natural gas as well by a long margin doing incredible well by a long margin doing incredible well by a long margin doing incredible work there. Yet the United States is work there. Yet the United States is work there. Yet the United States is actively undermining the ability to also actively undermining the ability to also actively undermining the ability to also produce clean technologies for energy. produce clean technologies for energy. produce clean technologies for energy. Texas produces more sustainable energy Texas produces more sustainable energy Texas produces more sustainable energy than any other state in the United than any other state in the United than any other state in the United States. Red Texas. So I mean it's not States. Red Texas. So I mean it's not States. Red Texas. So I mean it's not like this is these energy technologies like this is these energy technologies like this is these energy technologies are not Republican or Democrat. They are are not Republican or Democrat. They are are not Republican or Democrat. They are at scale becoming cheaper. You need all at scale becoming cheaper. You need all at scale becoming cheaper. You need all of them. And so the Europeans made a of them. And so the Europeans made a of them. And so the Europeans made a mistake in not recognizing that you need mistake in not recognizing that you need mistake in not recognizing that you need everything. everything. everything. >> Everybody says that the United States is >> Everybody says that the United States is >> Everybody says that the United States is the world's leading superpower and that the world's leading superpower and that the world's leading superpower and that has been the case. You know hard to has been the case. You know hard to has been the case. You know hard to argue against that for a long time. Is argue against that for a long time. Is argue against that for a long time. Is that set to change? Is China set to that set to change? Is China set to that set to change? Is China set to become the world's leading superpower? become the world's leading superpower? become the world's leading superpower? not soon. not soon. not soon. Um but the trae the present trajectory Um but the trae the present trajectory Um but the trae the present trajectory if it continues if it continues if it continues clearly would challenge America's clearly would challenge America's clearly would challenge America's dominant position clearly. I mean the US dominant position clearly. I mean the US dominant position clearly. I mean the US has the dollar is the global reserve has the dollar is the global reserve has the dollar is the global reserve currency right now. Nothing else is currency right now. Nothing else is currency right now. Nothing else is close. And transacting in the dollar is close. And transacting in the dollar is close. And transacting in the dollar is a huge advantage for the Americans who a huge advantage for the Americans who a huge advantage for the Americans who can continue to print money with can continue to print money with can continue to print money with reckless abandon and run massive reckless abandon and run massive reckless abandon and run massive deficits and have lower interest rates deficits and have lower interest rates deficits and have lower interest rates as a consequence. China does not have a as a consequence. China does not have a as a consequence. China does not have a convertible currency. They don't have convertible currency. They don't have convertible currency. They don't have rule of law. If they opened their rule of law. If they opened their rule of law. If they opened their currency to become convertible, there'd currency to become convertible, there'd currency to become convertible, there'd be massive capital flight and political be massive capital flight and political be massive capital flight and political instability. That's what they worry instability. That's what they worry instability. That's what they worry about. So, they don't compete with the about. So, they don't compete with the about. So, they don't compete with the US there. China's military is still a US there. China's military is still a US there. China's military is still a fraction of the capabilities of the US. fraction of the capabilities of the US. fraction of the capabilities of the US. They're watching what's happening in They're watching what's happening in They're watching what's happening in Venezuela, in Iran. They don't have that Venezuela, in Iran. They don't have that Venezuela, in Iran. They don't have that capacity. They're not close. They're capacity. They're not close. They're capacity. They're not close. They're building their nuclear weapons out. building their nuclear weapons out. building their nuclear weapons out. They're building their conventional They're building their conventional They're building their conventional weapons out. They have never fought a weapons out. They have never fought a weapons out. They have never fought a naval war. They have It's decades since naval war. They have It's decades since naval war. They have It's decades since they fought a ground war. U they're not they fought a ground war. U they're not they fought a ground war. U they're not capable of doing these things. capable of doing these things. capable of doing these things. >> So, is there any concern with China? >> So, is there any concern with China? >> So, is there any concern with China? >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> What is that concern? The concern with >> What is that concern? The concern with >> What is that concern? The concern with China is that the most the world China is that the most the world China is that the most the world changing new technologies out there, the changing new technologies out there, the changing new technologies out there, the Chinese are investing at scale and the Chinese are investing at scale and the Chinese are investing at scale and the Chinese are now either at parody or Chinese are now either at parody or Chinese are now either at parody or ahead of the Americans and everyone else ahead of the Americans and everyone else ahead of the Americans and everyone else by a long margin in many of the core by a long margin in many of the core by a long margin in many of the core technologies that matter most in the technologies that matter most in the technologies that matter most in the world. world. world. >> And what does that potentially mean that >> And what does that potentially mean that >> And what does that potentially mean that is worth paying attention to? Why does is worth paying attention to? Why does is worth paying attention to? Why does that matter? that matter? that matter? >> It means that they can set the rules. >> It means that they can set the rules. >> It means that they can set the rules. They can set the standards. They can They can set the standards. They can They can set the standards. They can sell the products that you need them. sell the products that you need them. sell the products that you need them. that if they determine that they're that if they determine that they're that if they determine that they're going to shut you off, you're dead, going to shut you off, you're dead, going to shut you off, you're dead, right? I mean, think about what right? I mean, think about what right? I mean, think about what happened. The Europeans were so happened. The Europeans were so happened. The Europeans were so dependent on Russia for gas and for oil. dependent on Russia for gas and for oil. dependent on Russia for gas and for oil. And the Russians invade Ukraine, they And the Russians invade Ukraine, they And the Russians invade Ukraine, they want to shut it down, and it destroys want to shut it down, and it destroys want to shut it down, and it destroys the European economy. The Americans are the European economy. The Americans are the European economy. The Americans are doing just fine. The Americans are doing just fine. The Americans are doing just fine. The Americans are building and get so many of their building and get so many of their building and get so many of their semiconductors from TSMC in Taiwan. I'm semiconductors from TSMC in Taiwan. I'm semiconductors from TSMC in Taiwan. I'm sure you've talked about that before in sure you've talked about that before in sure you've talked about that before in your show. Well, what happens if China your show. Well, what happens if China your show. Well, what happens if China decides that they want to cut that off? decides that they want to cut that off? decides that they want to cut that off? If they have that capacity, the If they have that capacity, the If they have that capacity, the Americans are really screwed. So you Americans are really screwed. So you Americans are really screwed. So you don't want to be in a position where one don't want to be in a position where one don't want to be in a position where one country, an adversarial country that you country, an adversarial country that you country, an adversarial country that you don't trust, have a good relationship don't trust, have a good relationship don't trust, have a good relationship with suddenly produces all this stuff with suddenly produces all this stuff with suddenly produces all this stuff that you desperately need or your that you desperately need or your that you desperately need or your economy will fall apart. And yet that is economy will fall apart. And yet that is economy will fall apart. And yet that is the the the the trajectory where the the the the trajectory where the the the the trajectory where president if China if China had president if China if China had president if China if China had elections coming up in November, I'd be elections coming up in November, I'd be elections coming up in November, I'd be worried, right? Because, you know, you worried, right? Because, you know, you worried, right? Because, you know, you can just imagine a situation where the can just imagine a situation where the can just imagine a situation where the Chinese being more short-term would say, Chinese being more short-term would say, Chinese being more short-term would say, "Well, look, the Americans are "Well, look, the Americans are "Well, look, the Americans are distracted with Iran and the Europeans distracted with Iran and the Europeans distracted with Iran and the Europeans are distracted with Ukraine. Now is our are distracted with Ukraine. Now is our are distracted with Ukraine. Now is our time for Taiwan because we really want time for Taiwan because we really want time for Taiwan because we really want to get like all that support. So, let's to get like all that support. So, let's to get like all that support. So, let's jin it up." Chinese aren't doing short- jin it up." Chinese aren't doing short- jin it up." Chinese aren't doing short- term at all. They're doing long-term. term at all. They're doing long-term. term at all. They're doing long-term. The Chinese are thinking for 10 years The Chinese are thinking for 10 years The Chinese are thinking for 10 years down the road, 20 years down the road, down the road, 20 years down the road, down the road, 20 years down the road, and they're investing that way. They're and they're investing that way. They're and they're investing that way. They're taking very little risk. They're making taking very little risk. They're making taking very little risk. They're making no regret moves to set themselves up no regret moves to set themselves up no regret moves to set themselves up long term while the Americans are doing long term while the Americans are doing long term while the Americans are doing all this short-term stuff, all this all this short-term stuff, all this all this short-term stuff, all this electoral cycle stuff. That's the worry. electoral cycle stuff. That's the worry. electoral cycle stuff. That's the worry. If the the Americans the biggest danger If the the Americans the biggest danger If the the Americans the biggest danger to the United States, not China, it's to the United States, not China, it's to the United States, not China, it's America. It's America getting in its own America. It's America getting in its own America. It's America getting in its own way and not investing in having the best way and not investing in having the best way and not investing in having the best products, the most competitiveness, the products, the most competitiveness, the products, the most competitiveness, the most attractive place to study, the most most attractive place to study, the most most attractive place to study, the most attractive place to live, the most attractive place to live, the most attractive place to live, the most attractive place to work. This has had attractive place to work. This has had attractive place to work. This has had probably the single biggest impact on my probably the single biggest impact on my probably the single biggest impact on my office. Of all the products that I've office. Of all the products that I've office. Of all the products that I've tried that have given me productivity tried that have given me productivity tried that have given me productivity gains or cognitive boosts, I would say gains or cognitive boosts, I would say gains or cognitive boosts, I would say that exogenous ketones are in the top that exogenous ketones are in the top that exogenous ketones are in the top three most pivotal things that have three most pivotal things that have three most pivotal things that have given me massive productivity gain. It's given me massive productivity gain. It's given me massive productivity gain. It's some Stanford graduates that have been some Stanford graduates that have been some Stanford graduates that have been able to basically bottle up the effect able to basically bottle up the effect able to basically bottle up the effect you get from being in a ketogenic diet you get from being in a ketogenic diet you get from being in a ketogenic diet in a small shot that you can take that in a small shot that you can take that in a small shot that you can take that makes you feel incredibly focused and makes you feel incredibly focused and makes you feel incredibly focused and gives your brain an incredible source of gives your brain an incredible source of gives your brain an incredible source of energy. And the clinical studies that energy. And the clinical studies that energy. And the clinical studies that have been done on exogenous ketones have have been done on exogenous ketones have have been done on exogenous ketones have absolutely blown my mind. I reached out absolutely blown my mind. I reached out absolutely blown my mind. I reached out to them. I became a coiner in the to them. I became a coiner in the to them. I became a coiner in the company. I became an investor in the company. I became an investor in the company. I became an investor in the company. And so it's with great pride company. And so it's with great pride company. And so it's with great pride that I can tell you that this exists. If that I can tell you that this exists. If that I can tell you that this exists. If you haven't tried these shots, go to you haven't tried these shots, go to you haven't tried these shots, go to ketone.com/stephven ketone.com/stephven ketone.com/stephven for 30% off your subscription order, and for 30% off your subscription order, and for 30% off your subscription order, and you'll also get a free gift with your you'll also get a free gift with your you'll also get a free gift with your second shipment. I still buy my ketone second shipment. I still buy my ketone second shipment. I still buy my ketone shots predominantly online. But shots predominantly online. But shots predominantly online. But thankfully, I can now grab them at thankfully, I can now grab them at thankfully, I can now grab them at Target whenever I drive past them here Target whenever I drive past them here Target whenever I drive past them here in the United States as well, because in the United States as well, because in the United States as well, because we're now stocked in Target, where your we're now stocked in Target, where your we're now stocked in Target, where your first shot is completely free. I'm 100% first shot is completely free. I'm 100% first shot is completely free. I'm 100% more productive using this app despite more productive using this app despite more productive using this app despite spending 50% less time typing. And that spending 50% less time typing. And that spending 50% less time typing. And that might confuse you, but let me explain, might confuse you, but let me explain, might confuse you, but let me explain, which is exactly why I invested in which is exactly why I invested in which is exactly why I invested in Whisper Flow. They're also one of our Whisper Flow. They're also one of our Whisper Flow. They're also one of our sponsors on this podcast. Whisper Flow sponsors on this podcast. Whisper Flow sponsors on this podcast. Whisper Flow turns your speech into text, so you can turns your speech into text, so you can turns your speech into text, so you can send it in any app or device at any send it in any app or device at any send it in any app or device at any time. And I promise you, it doesn't seem time. And I promise you, it doesn't seem time. And I promise you, it doesn't seem to ever make mistakes. This is the most to ever make mistakes. This is the most to ever make mistakes. This is the most accurate voice dictation I have ever accurate voice dictation I have ever accurate voice dictation I have ever used after a decade of trying to get one used after a decade of trying to get one used after a decade of trying to get one to work. Not only does it save me a ton to work. Not only does it save me a ton to work. Not only does it save me a ton of time, it also corrects your speech if of time, it also corrects your speech if of time, it also corrects your speech if you change your mind mid-sentence before you change your mind mid-sentence before you change your mind mid-sentence before turning it into text on the device. I turning it into text on the device. I turning it into text on the device. I love it and I know my team loves it too love it and I know my team loves it too love it and I know my team loves it too because when I posted it in our Slack because when I posted it in our Slack because when I posted it in our Slack channel asking if anybody wanted a pro channel asking if anybody wanted a pro channel asking if anybody wanted a pro version, half the office said yes and version, half the office said yes and version, half the office said yes and they had it within an hour which tells they had it within an hour which tells they had it within an hour which tells me everything. This is the tool you and me everything. This is the tool you and me everything. This is the tool you and your team need to speed yourselves up your team need to speed yourselves up your team need to speed yourselves up and to capture those important ideas so and to capture those important ideas so and to capture those important ideas so that they don't disappear. Head over to that they don't disappear. Head over to that they don't disappear. Head over to whisperflow.ai/stephven whisperflow.ai/stephven whisperflow.ai/stephven to download it now. That's wispr to download it now. That's wispr to download it now. That's wispr lw.ai/stephven. you um did a TED talk two years ago in you um did a TED talk two years ago in June. It was published in June 14th, June. It was published in June 14th, June. It was published in June 14th, 2023 and it's done tens of millions of 2023 and it's done tens of millions of 2023 and it's done tens of millions of views on YouTube. It is titled the next views on YouTube. It is titled the next views on YouTube. It is titled the next global superpower is not who you think. global superpower is not who you think. global superpower is not who you think. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> And I was looking at the comment section >> And I was looking at the comment section >> And I was looking at the comment section earlier and the some of the top comments earlier and the some of the top comments earlier and the some of the top comments are you called it a year ago and you are you called it a year ago and you are you called it a year ago and you were 100% right. There's another one were 100% right. There's another one were 100% right. There's another one here saying hello writing to you from a here saying hello writing to you from a here saying hello writing to you from a year in the future. I have some bad news year in the future. I have some bad news year in the future. I have some bad news about 2025. about 2025. about 2025. You were right. What were you right You were right. What were you right You were right. What were you right about? about? about? >> I was I guess what they're saying I this >> I was I guess what they're saying I this >> I was I guess what they're saying I this you and I have been talking about the US you and I have been talking about the US you and I have been talking about the US and China and traditional geopolitics. and China and traditional geopolitics. and China and traditional geopolitics. What I was saying is that increasingly What I was saying is that increasingly What I was saying is that increasingly the world is moving beyond geopolitics the world is moving beyond geopolitics the world is moving beyond geopolitics and that the most important new global and that the most important new global and that the most important new global leaders aren't countries, they're leaders aren't countries, they're leaders aren't countries, they're technology companies that are writing technology companies that are writing technology companies that are writing their own rules. I was looking how the their own rules. I was looking how the their own rules. I was looking how the Russian invasion of Ukraine that that Russian invasion of Ukraine that that Russian invasion of Ukraine that that war started not on the 24th of February war started not on the 24th of February war started not on the 24th of February but the 23rd of February when Microsoft but the 23rd of February when Microsoft but the 23rd of February when Microsoft found out about all of the cyber strikes found out about all of the cyber strikes found out about all of the cyber strikes that were hitting Ukraine and made the that were hitting Ukraine and made the that were hitting Ukraine and made the US government and the Ukrainian US government and the Ukrainian US government and the Ukrainian government aware of it. I look at Elon government aware of it. I look at Elon government aware of it. I look at Elon Musk and providing Starlink. If it Musk and providing Starlink. If it Musk and providing Starlink. If it wasn't for that, I'm not sure that the wasn't for that, I'm not sure that the wasn't for that, I'm not sure that the Ukrainian government was going to be Ukrainian government was going to be Ukrainian government was going to be able to fight these guys on the ground. able to fight these guys on the ground. able to fight these guys on the ground. They wouldn't have been able to They wouldn't have been able to They wouldn't have been able to communicate. Silinski might be gone. communicate. Silinski might be gone. communicate. Silinski might be gone. These are companies. The US government These are companies. The US government These are companies. The US government at that point was scared about sending at that point was scared about sending at that point was scared about sending all the military support, but the all the military support, but the all the military support, but the companies were making a big difference. companies were making a big difference. companies were making a big difference. Now I see that these new AI tools like Now I see that these new AI tools like Now I see that these new AI tools like we saw with Anthropic and Mythos. we saw with Anthropic and Mythos. we saw with Anthropic and Mythos. >> For anyone that doesn't know, Anthropic >> For anyone that doesn't know, Anthropic >> For anyone that doesn't know, Anthropic released a new AI model, which they say released a new AI model, which they say released a new AI model, which they say is so capable that it presents the world is so capable that it presents the world is so capable that it presents the world with a really fundamental security risk with a really fundamental security risk with a really fundamental security risk to all of our technology. They say in to all of our technology. They say in to all of our technology. They say in their report that in testing this new their report that in testing this new their report that in testing this new model, this new um type of AI could find model, this new um type of AI could find model, this new um type of AI could find security vulnerabilities in lots of security vulnerabilities in lots of security vulnerabilities in lots of different applications and software different applications and software different applications and software applications that we use. So essentially applications that we use. So essentially applications that we use. So essentially it posed a cyber security risk. It could it posed a cyber security risk. It could it posed a cyber security risk. It could hack hack hack >> a lot of banks and >> a lot of banks and >> a lot of banks and >> critical infrastructure, your power >> critical infrastructure, your power >> critical infrastructure, your power grid, water systems, anything with grid, water systems, anything with grid, water systems, anything with software. and and not just like the software. and and not just like the software. and and not just like the things that a hacker could get to, but things that a hacker could get to, but things that a hacker could get to, but every bug that could be exploited. So, every bug that could be exploited. So, every bug that could be exploited. So, it's so powerful that they couldn't it's so powerful that they couldn't it's so powerful that they couldn't release it because it would have been an release it because it would have been an release it because it would have been an immediate systemic risk to the global immediate systemic risk to the global immediate systemic risk to the global economy and our security. economy and our security. economy and our security. >> And do you believe them? I say this >> And do you believe them? I say this >> And do you believe them? I say this because I heard some people debating because I heard some people debating because I heard some people debating whether this was marketing talk for them whether this was marketing talk for them whether this was marketing talk for them as a company to say, "Look, look how as a company to say, "Look, look how as a company to say, "Look, look how powerful we are that we're not going to powerful we are that we're not going to powerful we are that we're not going to release this model because it's it's release this model because it's it's release this model because it's it's going to cause that much harm." or do going to cause that much harm." or do going to cause that much harm." or do you think they are being responsible? you think they are being responsible? you think they are being responsible? >> It is inconceivable to me that a company >> It is inconceivable to me that a company >> It is inconceivable to me that a company that is this capable of raising money that is this capable of raising money that is this capable of raising money and this capable of talking to the and this capable of talking to the and this capable of talking to the markets is not going to have a markets is not going to have a markets is not going to have a communication strategy that is fully communication strategy that is fully communication strategy that is fully aligned with that. aligned with that. aligned with that. >> So of course there's marketing here, >> So of course there's marketing here, >> So of course there's marketing here, >> but this was a real risk. When you have >> but this was a real risk. When you have >> but this was a real risk. When you have Jerome Powell, the chief of the Fed, and Jerome Powell, the chief of the Fed, and Jerome Powell, the chief of the Fed, and Scott Bessent, the Secretary of Scott Bessent, the Secretary of Scott Bessent, the Secretary of Treasury, looking at this and Treasury, looking at this and Treasury, looking at this and immediately calling an urgent meeting of immediately calling an urgent meeting of immediately calling an urgent meeting of all the CEOs of the banks, saying, "We all the CEOs of the banks, saying, "We all the CEOs of the banks, saying, "We have to deploy this internally." And you have to deploy this internally." And you have to deploy this internally." And you have JP Morgan, Jamie Diamond, is by far have JP Morgan, Jamie Diamond, is by far have JP Morgan, Jamie Diamond, is by far the best at cyber security in terms of the best at cyber security in terms of the best at cyber security in terms of the big banks and the big US the big banks and the big US the big banks and the big US institutions and considers this a five institutions and considers this a five institutions and considers this a five alarm fire. I I take this very alarm fire. I I take this very alarm fire. I I take this very seriously. Mhm. seriously. Mhm. seriously. Mhm. >> I think this is actually a big deal that >> I think this is actually a big deal that >> I think this is actually a big deal that also happens to be useful for anthropics also happens to be useful for anthropics also happens to be useful for anthropics marketing, not least because Anthropic marketing, not least because Anthropic marketing, not least because Anthropic had just been in a big fight with the had just been in a big fight with the had just been in a big fight with the defense department and the US defense defense department and the US defense defense department and the US defense department saying we don't want these department saying we don't want these department saying we don't want these anthropic guys because like they're not anthropic guys because like they're not anthropic guys because like they're not they're woke, right? I mean, they don't they're woke, right? I mean, they don't they're woke, right? I mean, they don't they refuse to let us use and deploy they refuse to let us use and deploy they refuse to let us use and deploy their AI in our targeting or our their AI in our targeting or our their AI in our targeting or our surveillance. So, we're going to take surveillance. So, we're going to take surveillance. So, we're going to take them out of our system. Well, turns out them out of our system. Well, turns out them out of our system. Well, turns out you can't afford to take these guys you can't afford to take these guys you can't afford to take these guys completely out of your system because completely out of your system because completely out of your system because what they're doing is too important for what they're doing is too important for what they're doing is too important for American national security. So, the American national security. So, the American national security. So, the timing is convenient from that timing is convenient from that timing is convenient from that perspective. But this risk is real and perspective. But this risk is real and perspective. But this risk is real and it's real because it needs to be it's real because it needs to be it's real because it needs to be deployed immediately to find these bugs deployed immediately to find these bugs deployed immediately to find these bugs and to patch them before other people and to patch them before other people and to patch them before other people have those tools because other people have those tools because other people have those tools because other people will have these tools in very short will have these tools in very short will have these tools in very short order. order. order. >> And so on the scale of risks that we >> And so on the scale of risks that we >> And so on the scale of risks that we have in front of us here, critical, have in front of us here, critical, have in front of us here, critical, severe, severe, severe, >> yep, also severe. Okay, >> yep, also severe. Okay, >> yep, also severe. Okay, >> again would be critical if we were >> again would be critical if we were >> again would be critical if we were talking about two years out because talking about two years out because talking about two years out because we're talking about this year and it's we're talking about this year and it's we're talking about this year and it's already April. It just happened. I would already April. It just happened. I would already April. It just happened. I would say severe, but my god, underappreciated say severe, but my god, underappreciated say severe, but my god, underappreciated because the amount of attention this because the amount of attention this because the amount of attention this gets on headlines gets on headlines gets on headlines >> compared to Iran or Venezuela compared >> compared to Iran or Venezuela compared >> compared to Iran or Venezuela compared to China is still tiny. to China is still tiny. to China is still tiny. >> And is that because of unemployment >> And is that because of unemployment >> And is that because of unemployment because AI is going to take our jobs or because AI is going to take our jobs or because AI is going to take our jobs or is it something else? Is it the nuclear? is it something else? Is it the nuclear? is it something else? Is it the nuclear? What is it? No, I mean if if what I just What is it? No, I mean if if what I just What is it? No, I mean if if what I just mentioned with anthropic, like if mentioned with anthropic, like if mentioned with anthropic, like if suddenly your systems are hackable by suddenly your systems are hackable by suddenly your systems are hackable by anyone that has access to this tool, anyone that has access to this tool, anyone that has access to this tool, your markets are going to go down. Your your markets are going to go down. Your your markets are going to go down. Your banks aren't going to work. Your data is banks aren't going to work. Your data is banks aren't going to work. Your data is going to be stolen. You know, your your going to be stolen. You know, your your going to be stolen. You know, your your imagine if the Russians have that imagine if the Russians have that imagine if the Russians have that capacity, what they would do with it. If capacity, what they would do with it. If capacity, what they would do with it. If the Iranians today had that capacity, the Iranians today had that capacity, the Iranians today had that capacity, what they would do with it, they will. what they would do with it, they will. what they would do with it, they will. the these AI tools are are becoming the these AI tools are are becoming the these AI tools are are becoming available to anyone with a laptop or a available to anyone with a laptop or a available to anyone with a laptop or a cell phone. So I mean suddenly in the cell phone. So I mean suddenly in the cell phone. So I mean suddenly in the same way that the war in Russia Ukraine, same way that the war in Russia Ukraine, same way that the war in Russia Ukraine, Russia is much bigger than Ukraine and Russia is much bigger than Ukraine and Russia is much bigger than Ukraine and yet in the last 3 months Ukraine has yet in the last 3 months Ukraine has yet in the last 3 months Ukraine has actually taken territory back from actually taken territory back from actually taken territory back from Russia. How is that possible? Technology Russia. How is that possible? Technology Russia. How is that possible? Technology drones, right? They have become the most drones, right? They have become the most drones, right? They have become the most capable drone producer in the world at capable drone producer in the world at capable drone producer in the world at scale. so much that when the Iranians scale. so much that when the Iranians scale. so much that when the Iranians were attacked by the United States and were attacked by the United States and were attacked by the United States and they counter hit, what did the Americans they counter hit, what did the Americans they counter hit, what did the Americans do? They called Zalinski, remember the do? They called Zalinski, remember the do? They called Zalinski, remember the guy that didn't say thank you in the guy that didn't say thank you in the guy that didn't say thank you in the White House, and they said, "Could we White House, and they said, "Could we White House, and they said, "Could we have your help with your drone have your help with your drone have your help with your drone technologies in figuring out how we technologies in figuring out how we technologies in figuring out how we combat Iran for our Gulf allies?" So combat Iran for our Gulf allies?" So combat Iran for our Gulf allies?" So technology is changing the world so technology is changing the world so technology is changing the world so fast, and it turns out that the biggest fast, and it turns out that the biggest fast, and it turns out that the biggest way it's changing our security and the way it's changing our security and the way it's changing our security and the economy is AI. on this point of AI. I economy is AI. on this point of AI. I economy is AI. on this point of AI. I actually was watching a video this actually was watching a video this actually was watching a video this morning before you arrived, which I I morning before you arrived, which I I morning before you arrived, which I I thought I'd show you because um it's thought I'd show you because um it's thought I'd show you because um it's quite it's quite dystopian, but what quite it's quite dystopian, but what quite it's quite dystopian, but what you'll see in this video is true and you'll see in this video is true and you'll see in this video is true and it's happening around the world and I it's happening around the world and I it's happening around the world and I don't think anybody has any ideas. This don't think anybody has any ideas. This don't think anybody has any ideas. This is the video. I'll play it for those of is the video. I'll play it for those of is the video. I'll play it for those of you that are looking at the screen at you that are looking at the screen at you that are looking at the screen at the moment. Can you tell what's going on the moment. Can you tell what's going on the moment. Can you tell what's going on in this video from watching it? from watching it? It looks to me um like uh they're uh the It looks to me um like uh they're uh the It looks to me um like uh they're uh the work that they are doing is being uh work that they are doing is being uh work that they are doing is being uh monitored real time. Um presumably by monitored real time. Um presumably by monitored real time. Um presumably by some external source. Um you're going to some external source. Um you're going to some external source. Um you're going to suggest to me that the external source suggest to me that the external source suggest to me that the external source that's monitoring them is not a human that's monitoring them is not a human that's monitoring them is not a human being but is artificial intelligence. being but is artificial intelligence. being but is artificial intelligence. >> Yes. Kind of. What's happening is a >> Yes. Kind of. What's happening is a >> Yes. Kind of. What's happening is a company has paid these Indian workers to company has paid these Indian workers to company has paid these Indian workers to wear cameras on their heads wear cameras on their heads wear cameras on their heads >> to watch their hands. >> to watch their hands. >> to watch their hands. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> To train the AI so that the AI can do >> To train the AI so that the AI can do >> To train the AI so that the AI can do that job in the future that job in the future that job in the future >> to remove the workers from those jobs. >> to remove the workers from those jobs. >> to remove the workers from those jobs. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> So it's kind of like sitting on the >> So it's kind of like sitting on the >> So it's kind of like sitting on the branch of a tree and you yourself branch of a tree and you yourself branch of a tree and you yourself cutting the There's this meme I'll throw cutting the There's this meme I'll throw cutting the There's this meme I'll throw up on the screen. It's of a guy sat on up on the screen. It's of a guy sat on up on the screen. It's of a guy sat on the branch of a tree and he's cutting the branch of a tree and he's cutting the branch of a tree and he's cutting the branch himself. And what you're the branch himself. And what you're the branch himself. And what you're seeing here is because the AI companies seeing here is because the AI companies seeing here is because the AI companies and the robotics companies need real and the robotics companies need real and the robotics companies need real world data of these jobs being done, world data of these jobs being done, world data of these jobs being done, they're now asking the workers in the they're now asking the workers in the they're now asking the workers in the factories to record themselves doing it factories to record themselves doing it factories to record themselves doing it so that they can replace them. so that they can replace them. so that they can replace them. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> It's um I laugh because it's slightly >> It's um I laugh because it's slightly >> It's um I laugh because it's slightly terrifying. It's slightly terrifying and terrifying. It's slightly terrifying and terrifying. It's slightly terrifying and yet it's also slightly empowering yet it's also slightly empowering yet it's also slightly empowering depending on what we decide to do with depending on what we decide to do with depending on what we decide to do with the wealth that comes from this because the wealth that comes from this because the wealth that comes from this because let's face it, most human beings do not let's face it, most human beings do not let's face it, most human beings do not want that work to be what want that work to be what want that work to be what self-actualizes them. self-actualizes them. self-actualizes them. >> What kind of political system do you >> What kind of political system do you >> What kind of political system do you need or social system do you need in need or social system do you need in need or social system do you need in such a world where a lot of the work such a world where a lot of the work such a world where a lot of the work that we do today is being done by these that we do today is being done by these that we do today is being done by these intelligent machines and a huge amount intelligent machines and a huge amount intelligent machines and a huge amount of people don't have work? I was saying of people don't have work? I was saying of people don't have work? I was saying to you before we started recording, a to you before we started recording, a to you before we started recording, a friend of mine called me the other day friend of mine called me the other day friend of mine called me the other day and he had had a conversation with one and he had had a conversation with one and he had had a conversation with one of the most successful technologists in of the most successful technologists in of the most successful technologists in the world that everybody knows and he the world that everybody knows and he the world that everybody knows and he said next year is the year where the said next year is the year where the said next year is the year where the unemployment because of AI really will unemployment because of AI really will unemployment because of AI really will take hold and people are going to get take hold and people are going to get take hold and people are going to get increasingly increasingly increasingly annoyed. They also said that they think annoyed. They also said that they think annoyed. They also said that they think the Democrats, even though I think this the Democrats, even though I think this the Democrats, even though I think this person might be Republican, they think person might be Republican, they think person might be Republican, they think the Democrats are going to win the the Democrats are going to win the the Democrats are going to win the election because the impact of AI is election because the impact of AI is election because the impact of AI is going to be so severe next year in terms going to be so severe next year in terms going to be so severe next year in terms of employ unemployment that people are of employ unemployment that people are of employ unemployment that people are going to associate the Republicans with going to associate the Republicans with going to associate the Republicans with being the pro AAI party. And I saw being the pro AAI party. And I saw being the pro AAI party. And I saw another report last week saying that AI another report last week saying that AI another report last week saying that AI is now less popular than ICE in the is now less popular than ICE in the is now less popular than ICE in the United States. And just as a podcaster United States. And just as a podcaster United States. And just as a podcaster who has conversations about this, I know who has conversations about this, I know who has conversations about this, I know people are are not happy. I know they're people are are not happy. I know they're people are are not happy. I know they're not happy. I see it in the comment not happy. I see it in the comment not happy. I see it in the comment section in part because we don't see it section in part because we don't see it section in part because we don't see it flowing down and making people's lives flowing down and making people's lives flowing down and making people's lives better. We see major corporations better. We see major corporations better. We see major corporations getting richer. getting richer. getting richer. >> And so the funny thing that video you >> And so the funny thing that video you >> And so the funny thing that video you showed me, most people in the global showed me, most people in the global showed me, most people in the global south are very excited, enthusiastic south are very excited, enthusiastic south are very excited, enthusiastic about AI because they think it's going about AI because they think it's going about AI because they think it's going to give them tools to improve their to give them tools to improve their to give them tools to improve their human capital, to improve their human capital, to improve their human capital, to improve their opportunities. China, the Chinese are opportunities. China, the Chinese are opportunities. China, the Chinese are very excited about AI because they think very excited about AI because they think very excited about AI because they think that it's going to make their lives that it's going to make their lives that it's going to make their lives better. Mhm. better. Mhm. better. Mhm. >> The Americans, the Europeans are not. >> The Americans, the Europeans are not. >> The Americans, the Europeans are not. They worry that this is actually going They worry that this is actually going They worry that this is actually going to undermine their jobs, particularly to undermine their jobs, particularly to undermine their jobs, particularly their white collar jobs, their white collar jobs, their white collar jobs, >> uh their knowledge worker jobs. And and >> uh their knowledge worker jobs. And and >> uh their knowledge worker jobs. And and what I think is going to happen what I think is going to happen what I think is going to happen politically, I I I don't agree that politically, I I I don't agree that politically, I I I don't agree that we're going to see massive unemployment we're going to see massive unemployment we're going to see massive unemployment in the US next year. I think there's in the US next year. I think there's in the US next year. I think there's going to be much more friction. And most going to be much more friction. And most going to be much more friction. And most CEOs don't want to get rid of a lot of CEOs don't want to get rid of a lot of CEOs don't want to get rid of a lot of their workers unless they have to. So their workers unless they have to. So their workers unless they have to. So unless there's a major economic downturn unless there's a major economic downturn unless there's a major economic downturn that gives them that excuse, I think that gives them that excuse, I think that gives them that excuse, I think it's going to take a lot longer. And I it's going to take a lot longer. And I it's going to take a lot longer. And I also think that social mobilization long also think that social mobilization long also think that social mobilization long shoreman in the United States like said shoreman in the United States like said shoreman in the United States like said no AI, you're going to protect our jobs. no AI, you're going to protect our jobs. no AI, you're going to protect our jobs. And they were willing to actually And they were willing to actually And they were willing to actually demonstrate. They mobilized and it kept demonstrate. They mobilized and it kept demonstrate. They mobilized and it kept AI out. There'll be a lot of like, you AI out. There'll be a lot of like, you AI out. There'll be a lot of like, you know, resistance that will slow this know, resistance that will slow this know, resistance that will slow this process down. But what I do think is process down. But what I do think is process down. But what I do think is going to happen, I think you'll see it going to happen, I think you'll see it going to happen, I think you'll see it politically. I was talking to uh someone politically. I was talking to uh someone politically. I was talking to uh someone I know um reasonably well uh a senator, I know um reasonably well uh a senator, I know um reasonably well uh a senator, US senator who was saying uh can't talk US senator who was saying uh can't talk US senator who was saying uh can't talk right now and prochecknology person pro right now and prochecknology person pro right now and prochecknology person pro business person centrist right someone business person centrist right someone business person centrist right someone you and I would recognize as such say I you and I would recognize as such say I you and I would recognize as such say I can't talk about data centers I've never can't talk about data centers I've never can't talk about data centers I've never seen people my constituents so upset seen people my constituents so upset seen people my constituents so upset about an issue as they do about data about an issue as they do about data about an issue as they do about data centers centers centers >> AI data centers >> AI data centers >> AI data centers >> AI they said that no jobs energy prices >> AI they said that no jobs energy prices >> AI they said that no jobs energy prices going up water prices going up. Zoning going up water prices going up. Zoning going up water prices going up. Zoning looks horrible in their neighborhoods. looks horrible in their neighborhoods. looks horrible in their neighborhoods. They're growing like topsy. Huge amount They're growing like topsy. Huge amount They're growing like topsy. Huge amount of investment. Everyone hates these of investment. Everyone hates these of investment. Everyone hates these things. I I mean Trump in the United things. I I mean Trump in the United things. I I mean Trump in the United States won on the back of a lot of men States won on the back of a lot of men States won on the back of a lot of men who many of whom had good jobs and were who many of whom had good jobs and were who many of whom had good jobs and were making good money, but they didn't making good money, but they didn't making good money, but they didn't necessarily have advanced degrees. necessarily have advanced degrees. necessarily have advanced degrees. >> And they felt like the world was moving >> And they felt like the world was moving >> And they felt like the world was moving away from them. They saw robotics and away from them. They saw robotics and away from them. They saw robotics and automation on their factory lines. They automation on their factory lines. They automation on their factory lines. They saw free trade and jobs going to much saw free trade and jobs going to much saw free trade and jobs going to much poorer, much, you know, less expensive poorer, much, you know, less expensive poorer, much, you know, less expensive labor around the world, China labor around the world, China labor around the world, China especially, but India, other countries. especially, but India, other countries. especially, but India, other countries. They said they saw immigrants coming in, They said they saw immigrants coming in, They said they saw immigrants coming in, but you're not taking care of me and my but you're not taking care of me and my but you're not taking care of me and my family, so why am I letting that happen? family, so why am I letting that happen? family, so why am I letting that happen? You see this in Europe, too. This is the You see this in Europe, too. This is the You see this in Europe, too. This is the Nigel Farage movement. Like lots of Nigel Farage movement. Like lots of Nigel Farage movement. Like lots of stuff, right? They voted Trump in not stuff, right? They voted Trump in not stuff, right? They voted Trump in not once, but twice. Despite everything he once, but twice. Despite everything he once, but twice. Despite everything he is, everything he stands for, they voted is, everything he stands for, they voted is, everything he stands for, they voted for. We haven't seen women with advanced for. We haven't seen women with advanced for. We haven't seen women with advanced degrees, urban and suburban, worried degrees, urban and suburban, worried degrees, urban and suburban, worried about their jobs and worried about their about their jobs and worried about their about their jobs and worried about their kids. And that wave of populism is kids. And that wave of populism is kids. And that wave of populism is coming absolutely in 2028. And that is coming absolutely in 2028. And that is coming absolutely in 2028. And that is AI is a very big piece of that. AI, data AI is a very big piece of that. AI, data AI is a very big piece of that. AI, data centers, and the rest. So in that centers, and the rest. So in that centers, and the rest. So in that regard, I agree that there's going to be regard, I agree that there's going to be regard, I agree that there's going to be a real political wave here. And I don't a real political wave here. And I don't a real political wave here. And I don't yet know who the political figures are yet know who the political figures are yet know who the political figures are that are going to respond to that. I I that are going to respond to that. I I that are going to respond to that. I I don't think that person today exists in don't think that person today exists in don't think that person today exists in the political spectrum. I haven't seen the political spectrum. I haven't seen the political spectrum. I haven't seen that person. that person. that person. >> It appears that the least popular job or >> It appears that the least popular job or >> It appears that the least popular job or least popular people in society at the least popular people in society at the least popular people in society at the moment are AI CEOs. I mean, you're moment are AI CEOs. I mean, you're moment are AI CEOs. I mean, you're probably seeing what um what's going on. probably seeing what um what's going on. probably seeing what um what's going on. >> We saw what Sam Alman just had a you >> We saw what Sam Alman just had a you >> We saw what Sam Alman just had a you know, the the Molotov cocktail that was know, the the Molotov cocktail that was know, the the Molotov cocktail that was actually thrown at his uh actually thrown at his uh actually thrown at his uh >> and then yesterday again they said >> and then yesterday again they said >> and then yesterday again they said someone shot at his house yesterday. someone shot at his house yesterday. someone shot at his house yesterday. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> Yesterday night again. >> Yesterday night again. >> Yesterday night again. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Which obviously nobody should support >> Which obviously nobody should support >> Which obviously nobody should support violence of this type. My god, no. No, violence of this type. My god, no. No, violence of this type. My god, no. No, but it's not surprising. And we also had but it's not surprising. And we also had but it's not surprising. And we also had the CEO of United Healthcare gunned the CEO of United Healthcare gunned the CEO of United Healthcare gunned down, you know, a year ago, just uh a down, you know, a year ago, just uh a down, you know, a year ago, just uh a few blocks from where you and I are few blocks from where you and I are few blocks from where you and I are having this conversation right now. having this conversation right now. having this conversation right now. There is general anger at the elite. And There is general anger at the elite. And There is general anger at the elite. And it's true that the wealthiest people in it's true that the wealthiest people in it's true that the wealthiest people in the United States right now happen to be the United States right now happen to be the United States right now happen to be those tech owners. Is there a solution those tech owners. Is there a solution those tech owners. Is there a solution here where the technology which presents here where the technology which presents here where the technology which presents us with tremendous potential upsides can us with tremendous potential upsides can us with tremendous potential upsides can be be thrive and be successful and make be be thrive and be successful and make be be thrive and be successful and make our lives better but also the average our lives better but also the average our lives better but also the average person the working-class people can also person the working-class people can also person the working-class people can also capitalize and benefit from this capitalize and benefit from this capitalize and benefit from this technology? technology? technology? >> Of course there is. >> Of course there is. >> Of course there is. >> What does that look like? >> What does that look like? >> What does that look like? >> Well, I mean first of all these >> Well, I mean first of all these >> Well, I mean first of all these technologies are already doing technologies are already doing technologies are already doing extraordinary things in improving extraordinary things in improving extraordinary things in improving productivity and in reducing waste. I productivity and in reducing waste. I productivity and in reducing waste. I mean, recycling doesn't work very well, mean, recycling doesn't work very well, mean, recycling doesn't work very well, but with AI, you can recycle in a way but with AI, you can recycle in a way but with AI, you can recycle in a way that would allow you to actually get that would allow you to actually get that would allow you to actually get that trash product back into a that trash product back into a that trash product back into a productive format. Who wouldn't want the productive format. Who wouldn't want the productive format. Who wouldn't want the ability to make micro adjustments in um ability to make micro adjustments in um ability to make micro adjustments in um the way that an airplane is navigating the way that an airplane is navigating the way that an airplane is navigating real time because of AI that reduces real time because of AI that reduces real time because of AI that reduces fuel consumption by 10%. Or improve fuel consumption by 10%. Or improve fuel consumption by 10%. Or improve agricultural use. In Ethiopia, you've agricultural use. In Ethiopia, you've agricultural use. In Ethiopia, you've got over a hundred million people and got over a hundred million people and got over a hundred million people and they don't know what to plant and where they don't know what to plant and where they don't know what to plant and where and when. Suddenly, you optimize for and when. Suddenly, you optimize for and when. Suddenly, you optimize for that. They have cheaper food. Like the that. They have cheaper food. Like the that. They have cheaper food. Like the these are amazing things. Every day I these are amazing things. Every day I these are amazing things. Every day I see uses for these technologies in see uses for these technologies in see uses for these technologies in companies around the world that blow my companies around the world that blow my companies around the world that blow my mind. But I also see and again I focus mind. But I also see and again I focus mind. But I also see and again I focus on politics. And if we blow ourselves on politics. And if we blow ourselves on politics. And if we blow ourselves up, it's not going to be because of up, it's not going to be because of up, it's not going to be because of technology. If we blow ourselves up, technology. If we blow ourselves up, technology. If we blow ourselves up, it's going to be because of people and it's going to be because of people and it's going to be because of people and politics. politics. politics. What do you mean by that? What do you mean by that? What do you mean by that? >> That the system is deploying these >> That the system is deploying these >> That the system is deploying these technologies in inhumane ways. It's technologies in inhumane ways. It's technologies in inhumane ways. It's allowing the benefits of the allowing the benefits of the allowing the benefits of the opportunities to be captured by a small opportunities to be captured by a small opportunities to be captured by a small number of individuals, a small number of number of individuals, a small number of number of individuals, a small number of companies that write their own rules and companies that write their own rules and companies that write their own rules and don't care about people that are getting don't care about people that are getting don't care about people that are getting angry. So when you ask, violence is the angry. So when you ask, violence is the angry. So when you ask, violence is the wrong thing. But if you're seeing that wrong thing. But if you're seeing that wrong thing. But if you're seeing that people are getting so angry that they're people are getting so angry that they're people are getting so angry that they're starting to do things that they see the starting to do things that they see the starting to do things that they see the only way that they think that they can only way that they think that they can only way that they think that they can respond is outside of the legal respond is outside of the legal respond is outside of the legal framework. It's not by voting for framework. It's not by voting for framework. It's not by voting for somebody new, but it's by mass action or somebody new, but it's by mass action or somebody new, but it's by mass action or even violent action. Then the politics even violent action. Then the politics even violent action. Then the politics are really broken. are really broken. are really broken. >> So, do we need like universal basic >> So, do we need like universal basic >> So, do we need like universal basic income or something? or does there need income or something? or does there need income or something? or does there need to be an AI tax or to be an AI tax or to be an AI tax or >> I don't think that you go from everybody >> I don't think that you go from everybody >> I don't think that you go from everybody has a full-time job or aspires to a has a full-time job or aspires to a has a full-time job or aspires to a full-time job to universal basic income full-time job to universal basic income full-time job to universal basic income in a year. I I I don't think that in a year. I I I don't think that in a year. I I I don't think that happens. But I could easily see pilot happens. But I could easily see pilot happens. But I could easily see pilot programs that say instead of a five-day programs that say instead of a five-day programs that say instead of a five-day work week in the following areas that we work week in the following areas that we work week in the following areas that we think are going to be disrupted, it's think are going to be disrupted, it's think are going to be disrupted, it's going to be a 4-day work week or 3-day going to be a 4-day work week or 3-day going to be a 4-day work week or 3-day work week. And we're going to pay you work week. And we're going to pay you work week. And we're going to pay you the same amount of money, but that the same amount of money, but that the same amount of money, but that additional day every week is going to be additional day every week is going to be additional day every week is going to be on AI training that will allow you to on AI training that will allow you to on AI training that will allow you to have a job. either be more effective in have a job. either be more effective in have a job. either be more effective in your existing job because the only the your existing job because the only the your existing job because the only the people that know how to deploy these people that know how to deploy these people that know how to deploy these tools are going to have a job another tools are going to have a job another tools are going to have a job another three or five years or will allow you to three or five years or will allow you to three or five years or will allow you to transition. But you've got to start transition. But you've got to start transition. But you've got to start spending the money on that now. And this spending the money on that now. And this spending the money on that now. And this that that guy that you had that that that guy that you had that that that guy that you had that conversation with, I've been watching conversation with, I've been watching conversation with, I've been watching him publicly. He's not part of the him publicly. He's not part of the him publicly. He's not part of the solution. He's saying I think the solution. He's saying I think the solution. He's saying I think the Democrats are going to win. Oh well, Democrats are going to win. Oh well, Democrats are going to win. Oh well, I'll be fine. I'm still worth a lot of I'll be fine. I'm still worth a lot of I'll be fine. I'm still worth a lot of money, but I'm not going to do anything money, but I'm not going to do anything money, but I'm not going to do anything to actually help facilitate this. Like to actually help facilitate this. Like to actually help facilitate this. Like if you if the people that are most if you if the people that are most if you if the people that are most capable of being aware of these capable of being aware of these capable of being aware of these challenges and of addressing them are challenges and of addressing them are challenges and of addressing them are instead all in winner take all mode, instead all in winner take all mode, instead all in winner take all mode, then obviously we're going to have a then obviously we're going to have a then obviously we're going to have a breakdown in society. breakdown in society. breakdown in society. It's a tricky situation, isn't it? It's a tricky situation, isn't it? It's a tricky situation, isn't it? Because we've seen what happens when Because we've seen what happens when Because we've seen what happens when governments get involved in technology governments get involved in technology governments get involved in technology sometimes, you know, even in the UK for sometimes, you know, even in the UK for sometimes, you know, even in the UK for and the European Union. Bloody hell. I and the European Union. Bloody hell. I and the European Union. Bloody hell. I remember speaking to I don't know if I remember speaking to I don't know if I remember speaking to I don't know if I have permission to say his name either, have permission to say his name either, have permission to say his name either, but he is the CTO of one of the biggest but he is the CTO of one of the biggest but he is the CTO of one of the biggest technology companies in the world and he technology companies in the world and he technology companies in the world and he was explaining to me that they can't was explaining to me that they can't was explaining to me that they can't release their features. This particular release their features. This particular release their features. This particular piece of hardware, we can't even release piece of hardware, we can't even release piece of hardware, we can't even release it in Europe because the European Union it in Europe because the European Union it in Europe because the European Union have so much regulation. have so much regulation. have so much regulation. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> That they've actually created a bunch of >> That they've actually created a bunch of >> That they've actually created a bunch of issues for us as companies. One of them issues for us as companies. One of them issues for us as companies. One of them was that in this particular device, the was that in this particular device, the was that in this particular device, the European Union demand that the battery European Union demand that the battery European Union demand that the battery can be taken out and put back in again. can be taken out and put back in again. can be taken out and put back in again. And what this actually means, he was And what this actually means, he was And what this actually means, he was explaining to me, is that we're going to explaining to me, is that we're going to explaining to me, is that we're going to have to buy loads of batteries and keep have to buy loads of batteries and keep have to buy loads of batteries and keep them on the shelf and then they're going them on the shelf and then they're going them on the shelf and then they're going to go bad and actually it's going to be to go bad and actually it's going to be to go bad and actually it's going to be worse for the environment, but also it worse for the environment, but also it worse for the environment, but also it means that the devices are no longer means that the devices are no longer means that the devices are no longer waterproof. So more devices are going to waterproof. So more devices are going to waterproof. So more devices are going to break, which is even worse for the break, which is even worse for the break, which is even worse for the environment. And this overregulation environment. And this overregulation environment. And this overregulation that's that's that's >> which means that the Europeans are >> which means that the Europeans are >> which means that the Europeans are nowhere in terms of competitive. nowhere in terms of competitive. nowhere in terms of competitive. >> They know they're not competitive. >> They know they're not competitive. >> They know they're not competitive. >> So he and you know what he said to me? >> So he and you know what he said to me? >> So he and you know what he said to me? He goes, um, and I don't think what the He goes, um, and I don't think what the He goes, um, and I don't think what the Europeans don't realize is we just don't Europeans don't realize is we just don't Europeans don't realize is we just don't need their market anymore. He said need their market anymore. He said need their market anymore. He said Brazil's coming online and all these Brazil's coming online and all these Brazil's coming online and all these other big markets are coming online as other big markets are coming online as other big markets are coming online as buyers. So we just can decide just to buyers. So we just can decide just to buyers. So we just can decide just to not sell to to Europe. not sell to to Europe. not sell to to Europe. >> So there are three systems out there, >> So there are three systems out there, >> So there are three systems out there, right? Broadly speaking, one system, the right? Broadly speaking, one system, the right? Broadly speaking, one system, the United States system, most power in the United States system, most power in the United States system, most power in the hands of the private sector so much so hands of the private sector so much so hands of the private sector so much so that they're able to capture the that they're able to capture the that they're able to capture the regulatory process, write their own regulatory process, write their own regulatory process, write their own regulations. That turns out that system regulations. That turns out that system regulations. That turns out that system drives an enormous amount of growth and drives an enormous amount of growth and drives an enormous amount of growth and wealth. The problem is that lots of wealth. The problem is that lots of wealth. The problem is that lots of average Americans do not benefit from average Americans do not benefit from average Americans do not benefit from it. Mhm. it. Mhm. it. Mhm. >> Because nobody is looking out for them. >> Because nobody is looking out for them. >> Because nobody is looking out for them. Then they get angry and then they lash Then they get angry and then they lash Then they get angry and then they lash out, right? The Chinese system where the out, right? The Chinese system where the out, right? The Chinese system where the state actually captures the private state actually captures the private state actually captures the private sector and they say what the private sector and they say what the private sector and they say what the private sector can and can't do. And frequently sector can and can't do. And frequently sector can and can't do. And frequently they own the private sector, state-owned they own the private sector, state-owned they own the private sector, state-owned enterprises, right? And that system enterprises, right? And that system enterprises, right? And that system drives an enormous amount of growth over drives an enormous amount of growth over drives an enormous amount of growth over the long term, but the people have no the long term, but the people have no the long term, but the people have no say over what is and what is not say over what is and what is not say over what is and what is not allowed. And that creates a lot of allowed. And that creates a lot of allowed. And that creates a lot of dissent and this lying flat. we're not a dissent and this lying flat. we're not a dissent and this lying flat. we're not a part of the system and the solution. part of the system and the solution. part of the system and the solution. Then you have the Europeans and the Then you have the Europeans and the Then you have the Europeans and the European system is very oriented towards European system is very oriented towards European system is very oriented towards we want to make sure that the social we want to make sure that the social we want to make sure that the social contract works for the citizens. We're contract works for the citizens. We're contract works for the citizens. We're very interested in like having all of very interested in like having all of very interested in like having all of the benefits that people need, but we the benefits that people need, but we the benefits that people need, but we can't afford them because our system is can't afford them because our system is can't afford them because our system is so heavily regulated and so anti- so heavily regulated and so anti- so heavily regulated and so anti- entrepreneurial that we don't drive the entrepreneurial that we don't drive the entrepreneurial that we don't drive the growth that would be necessary to keep growth that would be necessary to keep growth that would be necessary to keep paying for the people. Right? So paying for the people. Right? So paying for the people. Right? So obviously each of these systems have obviously each of these systems have obviously each of these systems have challenges but the problem comes not in challenges but the problem comes not in challenges but the problem comes not in the nature of the system but in when the nature of the system but in when the nature of the system but in when they become extreme. Americans today they become extreme. Americans today they become extreme. Americans today want a new deal whatever that new deal want a new deal whatever that new deal want a new deal whatever that new deal looks like. And Trump won because of looks like. And Trump won because of looks like. And Trump won because of that. He won because he positioned that. He won because he positioned that. He won because he positioned himself as the outsider that would make himself as the outsider that would make himself as the outsider that would make sure those things happen. Right? He was sure those things happen. Right? He was sure those things happen. Right? He was the guy that was going to end the wars. the guy that was going to end the wars. the guy that was going to end the wars. He was the guy that was going to invest He was the guy that was going to invest He was the guy that was going to invest in the United States. America first, not in the United States. America first, not in the United States. America first, not these other countries first. People like these other countries first. People like these other countries first. People like that. Take care of your people. That's that. Take care of your people. That's that. Take care of your people. That's what they want. People are voting for what they want. People are voting for what they want. People are voting for very simple things. They want to be very simple things. They want to be very simple things. They want to be taken care of. They want to have taken care of. They want to have taken care of. They want to have opportunities for themselves and their opportunities for themselves and their opportunities for themselves and their families and their communities. They families and their communities. They families and their communities. They don't want to feel despair. That's what don't want to feel despair. That's what don't want to feel despair. That's what the American dream was all about. That's the American dream was all about. That's the American dream was all about. That's why my grandparents came here. My why my grandparents came here. My why my grandparents came here. My grandma, Armenian, you know, fled her grandma, Armenian, you know, fled her grandma, Armenian, you know, fled her family fled the genocide. She came on family fled the genocide. She came on family fled the genocide. She came on Ellis Island. That's why I'm here. I Ellis Island. That's why I'm here. I Ellis Island. That's why I'm here. I came and I started a company in a land came and I started a company in a land came and I started a company in a land that had great opportunity. But most that had great opportunity. But most that had great opportunity. But most Americans don't believe that applies to Americans don't believe that applies to Americans don't believe that applies to them anymore. And you asking me all them anymore. And you asking me all them anymore. And you asking me all these questions about AI. The answer is these questions about AI. The answer is these questions about AI. The answer is very simple. Give these people the very simple. Give these people the very simple. Give these people the opportunity to create a dream for opportunity to create a dream for opportunity to create a dream for themselves and their families in their themselves and their families in their themselves and their families in their own countries. If they don't have that, own countries. If they don't have that, own countries. If they don't have that, they will eventually revolt against you. they will eventually revolt against you. they will eventually revolt against you. >> Is that what history tells us happens >> Is that what history tells us happens >> Is that what history tells us happens next in such a situation where the next in such a situation where the next in such a situation where the people feel more and more powerless and people feel more and more powerless and people feel more and more powerless and they feel like they have less and less they feel like they have less and less they feel like they have less and less opportunity? opportunity? opportunity? >> It doesn't happen everywhere. I mean, >> It doesn't happen everywhere. I mean, >> It doesn't happen everywhere. I mean, let's face it. We've got 25 million let's face it. We've got 25 million let's face it. We've got 25 million people in North Korea that have been, people in North Korea that have been, people in North Korea that have been, you know, ruled by, you know, a cult you know, ruled by, you know, a cult you know, ruled by, you know, a cult figure who they essentially worship for figure who they essentially worship for figure who they essentially worship for decades now. So, history doesn't decades now. So, history doesn't decades now. So, history doesn't necessarily tell us that it the story necessarily tell us that it the story necessarily tell us that it the story always goes well. But in a democracy, always goes well. But in a democracy, always goes well. But in a democracy, >> in a democracy, sometimes democracies go >> in a democracy, sometimes democracies go >> in a democracy, sometimes democracies go bad. But what we see frequently is push bad. But what we see frequently is push bad. But what we see frequently is push back against people that are back against people that are back against people that are kleptocratic, but it's people that put kleptocratic, but it's people that put kleptocratic, but it's people that put themselves above the system. And we've themselves above the system. And we've themselves above the system. And we've seen that in many cases in many seen that in many cases in many seen that in many cases in many democracies all over the world. 70% of democracies all over the world. 70% of democracies all over the world. 70% of people who add something to their online people who add something to their online people who add something to their online cart never actually buy it. And that cart never actually buy it. And that cart never actually buy it. And that number is based on over 10 years of number is based on over 10 years of number is based on over 10 years of research. But what I think is even more research. But what I think is even more research. But what I think is even more interesting is what the Bayard Institute interesting is what the Bayard Institute interesting is what the Bayard Institute discovered. They're a private research discovered. They're a private research discovered. They're a private research company that ran a study which found the company that ran a study which found the company that ran a study which found the average e-commerce store can increase average e-commerce store can increase average e-commerce store can increase its conversion rate by 35% just by its conversion rate by 35% just by its conversion rate by 35% just by making its checkout easier. Not better making its checkout easier. Not better making its checkout easier. Not better marketing or better products, but by marketing or better products, but by marketing or better products, but by delivering a smoother checkout delivering a smoother checkout delivering a smoother checkout experience. So, if you're looking for an experience. So, if you're looking for an experience. So, if you're looking for an easy way to make your checkout process easy way to make your checkout process easy way to make your checkout process smoother, I want you to think about smoother, I want you to think about smoother, I want you to think about moving your business onto Shopify. It's moving your business onto Shopify. It's moving your business onto Shopify. It's the platform we use to sell the 1% the platform we use to sell the 1% the platform we use to sell the 1% diaries and the conversation cards diaries and the conversation cards diaries and the conversation cards because it's so simple and smart to use. because it's so simple and smart to use. because it's so simple and smart to use. It puts all of our inventory, payments, It puts all of our inventory, payments, It puts all of our inventory, payments, and analytics in one place and has so and analytics in one place and has so and analytics in one place and has so many AI tools to help us get up and many AI tools to help us get up and many AI tools to help us get up and running straight away. Not to mention running straight away. Not to mention running straight away. Not to mention that it grows with you regardless of the that it grows with you regardless of the that it grows with you regardless of the stage that your business is at. So, if stage that your business is at. So, if stage that your business is at. So, if you're ready to fix your checkout you're ready to fix your checkout you're ready to fix your checkout process, sign up for your $1 per month process, sign up for your $1 per month process, sign up for your $1 per month trial at shopify.com/bartlet. trial at shopify.com/bartlet. trial at shopify.com/bartlet. That's shopify.com/bartlet. That's shopify.com/bartlet. That's shopify.com/bartlet. And don't tell anybody. And don't tell anybody. And don't tell anybody. We have finally caved in. So many of you We have finally caved in. So many of you We have finally caved in. So many of you have asked us if we could bundle the have asked us if we could bundle the have asked us if we could bundle the conversation cards with the 1% diary. conversation cards with the 1% diary. conversation cards with the 1% diary. For those of you that don't know, every For those of you that don't know, every For those of you that don't know, every single time a guest sits here with me in single time a guest sits here with me in single time a guest sits here with me in the chair, they leave a question in the the chair, they leave a question in the the chair, they leave a question in the diary of a CEO and then I ask that diary of a CEO and then I ask that diary of a CEO and then I ask that question to the next guest. We don't question to the next guest. We don't question to the next guest. We don't release those questions in any release those questions in any release those questions in any environment other than on these environment other than on these environment other than on these incredible conversation cards. These incredible conversation cards. These incredible conversation cards. These have become a fantastic tool for people have become a fantastic tool for people have become a fantastic tool for people in relationships, people in teams, in in relationships, people in teams, in in relationships, people in teams, in big corporations, and also family big corporations, and also family big corporations, and also family members to connect with each other. With members to connect with each other. With members to connect with each other. With that, we also have the 1% diary, which that, we also have the 1% diary, which that, we also have the 1% diary, which is this incredible tool to change habits is this incredible tool to change habits is this incredible tool to change habits in your life. So many of you have asked in your life. So many of you have asked in your life. So many of you have asked if it was possible to buy both at the if it was possible to buy both at the if it was possible to buy both at the same time, especially people in big same time, especially people in big same time, especially people in big companies. So, what we've done is we've companies. So, what we've done is we've companies. So, what we've done is we've bundled them together and you can buy bundled them together and you can buy bundled them together and you can buy both at the same time. And if you want both at the same time. And if you want both at the same time. And if you want to drive connection and instill habit to drive connection and instill habit to drive connection and instill habit change in your company, head to the change in your company, head to the change in your company, head to the diary.com to inquire and our team will diary.com to inquire and our team will diary.com to inquire and our team will be in touch. be in touch. be in touch. I think the part that I still have this I think the part that I still have this I think the part that I still have this big question mark in my head about is big question mark in my head about is big question mark in my head about is what you do about that. I was reading what you do about that. I was reading what you do about that. I was reading this morning that Jeff Bezos is this morning that Jeff Bezos is this morning that Jeff Bezos is investing or raising money raising a investing or raising money raising a investing or raising money raising a hundred billion dollars for I think it's hundred billion dollars for I think it's hundred billion dollars for I think it's called Project Prometheus which is his called Project Prometheus which is his called Project Prometheus which is his own AI company. Um you've got Elon with own AI company. Um you've got Elon with own AI company. Um you've got Elon with XAI, you've got Anthropic, you got XAI, you've got Anthropic, you got XAI, you've got Anthropic, you got Dermis at Google and Sundar, you've got Dermis at Google and Sundar, you've got Dermis at Google and Sundar, you've got OpenAI, Sam Alman, you've got all these OpenAI, Sam Alman, you've got all these OpenAI, Sam Alman, you've got all these big tech CEOs that are trying to sort of big tech CEOs that are trying to sort of big tech CEOs that are trying to sort of raise super intelligence like like it's raise super intelligence like like it's raise super intelligence like like it's a child. a child. a child. >> Yeah. And if they are to be successful, >> Yeah. And if they are to be successful, >> Yeah. And if they are to be successful, one would one would assert that one would one would assert that one would one would assert that intelligence itself is the most powerful intelligence itself is the most powerful intelligence itself is the most powerful commod like currency or commodity that commod like currency or commodity that commod like currency or commodity that there isn't on planet earth. So those there isn't on planet earth. So those there isn't on planet earth. So those that you wield it that you wield it that you wield it >> and commodity is right because Alman >> and commodity is right because Alman >> and commodity is right because Alman talks about you're going to need to pay talks about you're going to need to pay talks about you're going to need to pay for intelligence the way you pay for for intelligence the way you pay for for intelligence the way you pay for water. water. water. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Or pay for G and that that average >> Or pay for G and that that average >> Or pay for G and that that average American hears that and goes what what American hears that and goes what what American hears that and goes what what I'm going to have to pay for I'm going to have to pay for I'm going to have to pay for intelligence. intelligence. intelligence. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> That that feels like something we have >> That that feels like something we have >> That that feels like something we have free will over. Suddenly you don't. free will over. Suddenly you don't. free will over. Suddenly you don't. Suddenly a company has control over Suddenly a company has control over Suddenly a company has control over that. You know, if you had a wand and that. You know, if you had a wand and that. You know, if you had a wand and you could wave the wand and solve this you could wave the wand and solve this you could wave the wand and solve this techno oligarchy. Yeah. techno oligarchy. Yeah. techno oligarchy. Yeah. >> What would you do? >> What would you do? >> What would you do? >> I want three things. I want three types >> I want three things. I want three types >> I want three things. I want three types of governance. of governance. of governance. >> First, I I want to make sure um that the >> First, I I want to make sure um that the >> First, I I want to make sure um that the United States and China start to have AI United States and China start to have AI United States and China start to have AI arms control conversations. When we were arms control conversations. When we were arms control conversations. When we were fighting the Soviets, there were no arms fighting the Soviets, there were no arms fighting the Soviets, there were no arms control discussions until after 1962 control discussions until after 1962 control discussions until after 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. We almost blew up Cuban Missile Crisis. We almost blew up Cuban Missile Crisis. We almost blew up the entire world. That was super the entire world. That was super the entire world. That was super dangerous with much much lower levels of dangerous with much much lower levels of dangerous with much much lower levels of technology. And then after that we said, technology. And then after that we said, technology. And then after that we said, "Oh, maybe we should like have a have a "Oh, maybe we should like have a have a "Oh, maybe we should like have a have a hotline between the two leaders. Oh, hotline between the two leaders. Oh, hotline between the two leaders. Oh, maybe we should have deconliction. Maybe maybe we should have deconliction. Maybe maybe we should have deconliction. Maybe we should not invest in certain areas. we should not invest in certain areas. we should not invest in certain areas. Maybe we shouldn't try to develop Star Maybe we shouldn't try to develop Star Maybe we shouldn't try to develop Star Wars defense, for example. Maybe we Wars defense, for example. Maybe we Wars defense, for example. Maybe we should have some arms control agreements should have some arms control agreements should have some arms control agreements that limit, you know, what we do so that that limit, you know, what we do so that that limit, you know, what we do so that it's safer." We desperately need that it's safer." We desperately need that it's safer." We desperately need that between the Americans and the Chinese. between the Americans and the Chinese. between the Americans and the Chinese. That's number one. Number one. Second That's number one. Number one. Second That's number one. Number one. Second thing we need the financial markets. We thing we need the financial markets. We thing we need the financial markets. We all need the financial markets, right? all need the financial markets, right? all need the financial markets, right? We we need we need them systemically. We we need we need them systemically. We we need we need them systemically. When there's a financial crisis, the When there's a financial crisis, the When there's a financial crisis, the whole world comes together to get out of whole world comes together to get out of whole world comes together to get out of the financial crisis. And it doesn't the financial crisis. And it doesn't the financial crisis. And it doesn't matter if you're capitalist or matter if you're capitalist or matter if you're capitalist or communist, the People's Bank of China, communist, the People's Bank of China, communist, the People's Bank of China, the European Central Bank, the Bank of the European Central Bank, the Bank of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Fed, they all work together England, the Fed, they all work together England, the Fed, they all work together because they are first and foremost because they are first and foremost because they are first and foremost technocrats who understand that we need technocrats who understand that we need technocrats who understand that we need the markets to function. You need the markets to function. You need the markets to function. You need something like that for AI. in an AI something like that for AI. in an AI something like that for AI. in an AI stability board so that whenever there stability board so that whenever there stability board so that whenever there is a model that creates a danger to us is a model that creates a danger to us is a model that creates a danger to us globally like Anthropic just did last globally like Anthropic just did last globally like Anthropic just did last week that model is dangerous to all of week that model is dangerous to all of week that model is dangerous to all of us globally because any software with a us globally because any software with a us globally because any software with a potential bug in it is findable by that potential bug in it is findable by that potential bug in it is findable by that model and it can be exploited that's model and it can be exploited that's model and it can be exploited that's incredibly dangerous weapon so we don't incredibly dangerous weapon so we don't incredibly dangerous weapon so we don't want everyone to have that so you need want everyone to have that so you need want everyone to have that so you need at scale because everyone's going to at scale because everyone's going to at scale because everyone's going to develop this stuff you need an AI develop this stuff you need an AI develop this stuff you need an AI stability board like the financial stability board like the financial stability board like the financial stability board that is governed by stability board that is governed by stability board that is governed by technocrats, by people that have an technocrats, by people that have an technocrats, by people that have an independent capacity to identify threats independent capacity to identify threats independent capacity to identify threats to the systemic environment, the AI to the systemic environment, the AI to the systemic environment, the AI environment that we need to work that environment that we need to work that environment that we need to work that can communicate that to the people that can communicate that to the people that can communicate that to the people that have power and that can immediately have power and that can immediately have power and that can immediately attack and address it. Right? That's the attack and address it. Right? That's the attack and address it. Right? That's the second thing we need. We don't have that second thing we need. We don't have that second thing we need. We don't have that yet. The third thing we need is we have yet. The third thing we need is we have yet. The third thing we need is we have to have an ability to fund AI for people to have an ability to fund AI for people to have an ability to fund AI for people that otherwise would not be able to take that otherwise would not be able to take that otherwise would not be able to take advantage of it. We've got half of advantage of it. We've got half of advantage of it. We've got half of Africa that doesn't have electricity. Africa that doesn't have electricity. Africa that doesn't have electricity. The the gap between people with The the gap between people with The the gap between people with electricity and people that don't have electricity and people that don't have electricity and people that don't have electricity is going to be a hell of a electricity is going to be a hell of a electricity is going to be a hell of a lot worse when it's AI. It's going to be lot worse when it's AI. It's going to be lot worse when it's AI. It's going to be a gap between people that act like a gap between people that act like a gap between people that act like empowered human beings, hybrid empowered human beings, hybrid empowered human beings, hybrid individuals that have AI as a principal individuals that have AI as a principal individuals that have AI as a principal relationship and can deploy that relationship and can deploy that relationship and can deploy that knowledge and people that we won't even knowledge and people that we won't even knowledge and people that we won't even treat as human beings treat as human beings treat as human beings >> like a different species almost >> like a different species almost >> like a different species almost >> like a different species. That's >> like a different species. That's >> like a different species. That's unacceptable. We can't allow humanity to unacceptable. We can't allow humanity to unacceptable. We can't allow humanity to develop that way. So, we have to spend develop that way. So, we have to spend develop that way. So, we have to spend the money to ensure that everyone has the money to ensure that everyone has the money to ensure that everyone has access. We aren't close to that. What access. We aren't close to that. What access. We aren't close to that. What about the domestic economy here in the about the domestic economy here in the about the domestic economy here in the United States or in I know the UK or any United States or in I know the UK or any United States or in I know the UK or any of these countries that are developing of these countries that are developing of these countries that are developing the technology. the technology. the technology. >> Same as the last point. It's the exact >> Same as the last point. It's the exact >> Same as the last point. It's the exact same. same. same. >> Okay. So, you've got to also fund. >> Okay. So, you've got to also fund. >> Okay. So, you've got to also fund. >> Yeah. It can't just be global. I mean, >> Yeah. It can't just be global. I mean, >> Yeah. It can't just be global. I mean, the Americans will not care about this the Americans will not care about this the Americans will not care about this if this is like for subsaharan Africa. if this is like for subsaharan Africa. if this is like for subsaharan Africa. They'll whatever, right? It's them. I'm They'll whatever, right? It's them. I'm They'll whatever, right? It's them. I'm saying this is something that is saying this is something that is saying this is something that is necessary for humanity. But when I necessary for humanity. But when I necessary for humanity. But when I looked at our our teas going around the looked at our our teas going around the looked at our our teas going around the moon, we're looking down. I don't see moon, we're looking down. I don't see moon, we're looking down. I don't see borders. I see 8 billion people. I mean, borders. I see 8 billion people. I mean, borders. I see 8 billion people. I mean, if anyone that that came down that if anyone that that came down that if anyone that that came down that wasn't being shot up from the earth and wasn't being shot up from the earth and wasn't being shot up from the earth and came down, anyone that came down to the came down, anyone that came down to the came down, anyone that came down to the earth would look at us and they say, earth would look at us and they say, earth would look at us and they say, "Oh, look at this. 8 billion people, "Oh, look at this. 8 billion people, "Oh, look at this. 8 billion people, they don't see borders, right?" And and they don't see borders, right?" And and they don't see borders, right?" And and the first thing they would learn if they the first thing they would learn if they the first thing they would learn if they learned how we actually operate with our learned how we actually operate with our learned how we actually operate with our 8 billion people is, "Wow, you guys, 8 billion people is, "Wow, you guys, 8 billion people is, "Wow, you guys, given the technology you're developing, given the technology you're developing, given the technology you're developing, you have nowhere near adequate you have nowhere near adequate you have nowhere near adequate governance for your 8 billion people. governance for your 8 billion people. governance for your 8 billion people. you guys are all divided into and all of you guys are all divided into and all of you guys are all divided into and all of these short-term decisions you're making these short-term decisions you're making these short-term decisions you're making that are so inefficient and you are that are so inefficient and you are that are so inefficient and you are you're going to destroy yourselves. you're going to destroy yourselves. you're going to destroy yourselves. That's what they'd say. That's what they That's what they'd say. That's what they That's what they'd say. That's what they say. And and and I say that as a person say. And and and I say that as a person say. And and and I say that as a person who is a citizen of the country that who is a citizen of the country that who is a citizen of the country that created the United Nations because we created the United Nations because we created the United Nations because we understood the last time we almost understood the last time we almost understood the last time we almost destroyed ourselves in a world war. We destroyed ourselves in a world war. We destroyed ourselves in a world war. We can't do that anymore. So we need more can't do that anymore. So we need more can't do that anymore. So we need more global governance. We need more forums global governance. We need more forums global governance. We need more forums that bring everyone together, not that that bring everyone together, not that that bring everyone together, not that divide us apart. We're not heading in divide us apart. We're not heading in divide us apart. We're not heading in that direction right now. that direction right now. that direction right now. >> We are not heading in that direction >> We are not heading in that direction >> We are not heading in that direction right now. right now. right now. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> I mean, we're certainly heading in the >> I mean, we're certainly heading in the >> I mean, we're certainly heading in the opposite direction in every sense of the opposite direction in every sense of the opposite direction in every sense of the word. word. word. >> In the opposite direction in most senses >> In the opposite direction in most senses >> In the opposite direction in most senses of the word, but technologically, one of the word, but technologically, one of the word, but technologically, one could imagine that we're developing the could imagine that we're developing the could imagine that we're developing the tools that will help us move in that tools that will help us move in that tools that will help us move in that direction if we wish to. direction if we wish to. direction if we wish to. >> There is another version of the future, >> There is another version of the future, >> There is another version of the future, isn't there? Uh sometimes I question isn't there? Uh sometimes I question isn't there? Uh sometimes I question whether it's possible because the human whether it's possible because the human whether it's possible because the human condition is so condition is so condition is so you know contaminated with all of these you know contaminated with all of these you know contaminated with all of these um these sort of darker um these sort of darker um these sort of darker parts of ourselves. But sometimes I parts of ourselves. But sometimes I parts of ourselves. But sometimes I wonder if there is like a version of the wonder if there is like a version of the wonder if there is like a version of the future which is utopia. future which is utopia. future which is utopia. >> I don't see how there isn't. I mean I >> I don't see how there isn't. I mean I >> I don't see how there isn't. I mean I don't I don't see how you allow human don't I don't see how you allow human don't I don't see how you allow human beings to create the kind of tools that beings to create the kind of tools that beings to create the kind of tools that we have and not have the ability to use we have and not have the ability to use we have and not have the ability to use them for good. The big stories of the them for good. The big stories of the them for good. The big stories of the world over the past 50 years, my world over the past 50 years, my world over the past 50 years, my lifetime, those big stories have been lifetime, those big stories have been lifetime, those big stories have been about growth. Those big stories have about growth. Those big stories have about growth. Those big stories have been about how human beings are living been about how human beings are living been about how human beings are living for longer with better education and for longer with better education and for longer with better education and better healthcare and more wealth and better healthcare and more wealth and better healthcare and more wealth and less starvation and less poverty. Those less starvation and less poverty. Those less starvation and less poverty. Those have been the big stories of the last 50 have been the big stories of the last 50 have been the big stories of the last 50 years. Now, you can say maybe it's a years. Now, you can say maybe it's a years. Now, you can say maybe it's a blip, but actually when you look at blip, but actually when you look at blip, but actually when you look at humans history on the planet, it's humans history on the planet, it's humans history on the planet, it's generally moved towards more capacity. generally moved towards more capacity. generally moved towards more capacity. We've just had a couple of really bad We've just had a couple of really bad We've just had a couple of really bad episodes episodes episodes >> and information spreads so quickly that >> and information spreads so quickly that >> and information spreads so quickly that we hear about these bad episodes in a we hear about these bad episodes in a we hear about these bad episodes in a way that we wouldn't have otherwise. It way that we wouldn't have otherwise. It way that we wouldn't have otherwise. It feels feels feels >> the algorithm serving me up what's going >> the algorithm serving me up what's going >> the algorithm serving me up what's going on 10,000 miles that way. on 10,000 miles that way. on 10,000 miles that way. >> And I worry the most about that. I worry >> And I worry the most about that. I worry >> And I worry the most about that. I worry the most about people getting the most about people getting the most about people getting programmed. I'm not worried about programmed. I'm not worried about programmed. I'm not worried about artificial general intelligence. I'm artificial general intelligence. I'm artificial general intelligence. I'm worried about human beings becoming more worried about human beings becoming more worried about human beings becoming more computer-like. When you spend all of computer-like. When you spend all of computer-like. When you spend all of your time on your smartphone, that is a your time on your smartphone, that is a your time on your smartphone, that is a computer programming a human being. And computer programming a human being. And computer programming a human being. And we're acting more like the computer when we're acting more like the computer when we're acting more like the computer when we know that we're not like that. We we we know that we're not like that. We we we know that we're not like that. We we know that we're more like who we are know that we're more like who we are know that we're more like who we are over the last few hours. over the last few hours. over the last few hours. >> We're sitting here. We're having a >> We're sitting here. We're having a >> We're sitting here. We're having a conversation with each other. I've never conversation with each other. I've never conversation with each other. I've never met you before. We know a bit about each met you before. We know a bit about each met you before. We know a bit about each other, but we're having a real other, but we're having a real other, but we're having a real conversation. That's a humane conversation. That's a humane conversation. That's a humane conversation. As soon as it gets conversation. As soon as it gets conversation. As soon as it gets intermediated by algorithms, as soon as intermediated by algorithms, as soon as intermediated by algorithms, as soon as you get programmed into a lane, we you get programmed into a lane, we you get programmed into a lane, we become much more much more inhuman. And become much more much more inhuman. And become much more much more inhuman. And I I worry that's why I hate prediction I I worry that's why I hate prediction I I worry that's why I hate prediction markets. The idea that we're going to markets. The idea that we're going to markets. The idea that we're going to instead of looking at our political instead of looking at our political instead of looking at our political institutions as things that we built institutions as things that we built institutions as things that we built that serve us, instead we create a that serve us, instead we create a that serve us, instead we create a casino out of them, and we only care casino out of them, and we only care casino out of them, and we only care about whether we're in or out of the about whether we're in or out of the about whether we're in or out of the money. That that human beings don't money. That that human beings don't money. That that human beings don't operate that way. Companies that want to operate that way. Companies that want to operate that way. Companies that want to line their pockets make us work that line their pockets make us work that line their pockets make us work that way. We're we're being forced away from way. We're we're being forced away from way. We're we're being forced away from being our better selves. We need being our better selves. We need being our better selves. We need regulations and governance models and regulations and governance models and regulations and governance models and companies that help us be more of our companies that help us be more of our companies that help us be more of our better selves. better selves. better selves. >> What's interesting is as a podcaster, >> What's interesting is as a podcaster, >> What's interesting is as a podcaster, you sit in this really interesting you sit in this really interesting you sit in this really interesting position where I don't have like a boss position where I don't have like a boss position where I don't have like a boss or an overlord telling me who I can or an overlord telling me who I can or an overlord telling me who I can interview and who I can't. And my team interview and who I can't. And my team interview and who I can't. And my team know me so well now that they would know me so well now that they would know me so well now that they would never even mention never even mention never even mention the implications of me interviewing the implications of me interviewing the implications of me interviewing someone to me. And when I say that is someone to me. And when I say that is someone to me. And when I say that is like they would never come to me and like they would never come to me and like they would never come to me and say, "Stephen, you should you should say, "Stephen, you should you should say, "Stephen, you should you should interview Ian, but just so you know, interview Ian, but just so you know, interview Ian, but just so you know, this is his politics and if you if you this is his politics and if you if you this is his politics and if you if you interview him, these people might scream interview him, these people might scream interview him, these people might scream at you." They know me so well that they at you." They know me so well that they at you." They know me so well that they would never even mention it. So I say would never even mention it. So I say would never even mention it. So I say this to say that I have the opportunity this to say that I have the opportunity this to say that I have the opportunity to be like truly independent and that to be like truly independent and that to be like truly independent and that means that you know last week we had means that you know last week we had means that you know last week we had Ivanka Trump on had Michelle Obama Ivanka Trump on had Michelle Obama Ivanka Trump on had Michelle Obama Michelle Obama on then Kamala Harris and Michelle Obama on then Kamala Harris and Michelle Obama on then Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsome and I've interviewed Men Gavin Newsome and I've interviewed Men Gavin Newsome and I've interviewed Men Dani and Dani and Dani and it's funny when you sit in this position it's funny when you sit in this position it's funny when you sit in this position and you have you look at your you know and you have you look at your you know and you have you look at your you know the list of people that want to come on the list of people that want to come on the list of people that want to come on the show and that you've asked you know the show and that you've asked you know the show and that you've asked you know can we reach out to these people and you can we reach out to these people and you can we reach out to these people and you see every name and yet you know that see every name and yet you know that see every name and yet you know that this having a conversation because of this having a conversation because of this having a conversation because of the algorithms the algorithms the algorithms with someone that half my audience don't with someone that half my audience don't with someone that half my audience don't agree with is going to cause like real agree with is going to cause like real agree with is going to cause like real anger. Real anger. But like it's what anger. Real anger. But like it's what anger. Real anger. But like it's what what I also find to be really funny is what I also find to be really funny is what I also find to be really funny is like when I meet these people in real like when I meet these people in real like when I meet these people in real life that half my audience hates life that half my audience hates life that half my audience hates >> for some reason >> for some reason >> for some reason >> you connect with them. >> you connect with them. >> you connect with them. >> I can see like a lot of the time they >> I can see like a lot of the time they >> I can see like a lot of the time they have a disagreement about the path but have a disagreement about the path but have a disagreement about the path but they all agree on the destination. they all agree on the destination. they all agree on the destination. >> Well, no one's a villain of their own >> Well, no one's a villain of their own >> Well, no one's a villain of their own story. The one thing I would tweak of story. The one thing I would tweak of story. The one thing I would tweak of what you just said, you said um because what you just said, you said um because what you just said, you said um because you're independent, you have the you're independent, you have the you're independent, you have the opportunity, opportunity, opportunity, >> right, to to do what you want and to say >> right, to to do what you want and to say >> right, to to do what you want and to say what you want and to interview whoever what you want and to interview whoever what you want and to interview whoever you want, handle you. I think you have you want, handle you. I think you have you want, handle you. I think you have the obligation. the obligation. the obligation. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> In this environment, independence is a >> In this environment, independence is a >> In this environment, independence is a responsibility because there are so many responsibility because there are so many responsibility because there are so many people that are not in your position or people that are not in your position or people that are not in your position or my position that aren't independent that my position that aren't independent that my position that aren't independent that can be fired and they do not have the can be fired and they do not have the can be fired and they do not have the same opportunity and and instead we same opportunity and and instead we same opportunity and and instead we can't be angry at those people. But we can't be angry at those people. But we can't be angry at those people. But we have to recognize no no we we are have to recognize no no we we are have to recognize no no we we are fortunate enough to be independent and fortunate enough to be independent and fortunate enough to be independent and if you can't be fired we have an if you can't be fired we have an if you can't be fired we have an obligation to be out there and above the obligation to be out there and above the obligation to be out there and above the 50% of people that are going to hate you 50% of people that are going to hate you 50% of people that are going to hate you for whatever it is. for whatever it is. for whatever it is. >> Can I ask you a question then? Do you >> Can I ask you a question then? Do you >> Can I ask you a question then? Do you think I need to say something to the think I need to say something to the think I need to say something to the audience on why this is so important? audience on why this is so important? audience on why this is so important? >> Of course you do. I think I think you do >> Of course you do. I think I think you do >> Of course you do. I think I think you do that through your conversations but I that through your conversations but I that through your conversations but I think being mindful of it is important. think being mindful of it is important. think being mindful of it is important. >> I mean it's it's about being authentic >> I mean it's it's about being authentic >> I mean it's it's about being authentic to who you are. I mean, you and I may to who you are. I mean, you and I may to who you are. I mean, you and I may not have exactly the same values. We may not have exactly the same values. We may not have exactly the same values. We may not have the same priorities, but but if not have the same priorities, but but if not have the same priorities, but but if you're being honest about yourself, with you're being honest about yourself, with you're being honest about yourself, with your audience, about what matters, your audience, about what matters, your audience, about what matters, you're doing that through your podcast, you're doing that through your podcast, you're doing that through your podcast, your conversation. It's about never your conversation. It's about never your conversation. It's about never selling out when you do that. selling out when you do that. selling out when you do that. >> It's about never pulling back and >> It's about never pulling back and >> It's about never pulling back and saying, "Oh, no, that that might saying, "Oh, no, that that might saying, "Oh, no, that that might irritate someone, so I'm not going to irritate someone, so I'm not going to irritate someone, so I'm not going to say it." That's not who you are. You say it." That's not who you are. You say it." That's not who you are. You can't do that. can't do that. can't do that. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Right. Because again, that's that's what >> Right. Because again, that's that's what >> Right. Because again, that's that's what mainstream media does, and that's why mainstream media does, and that's why mainstream media does, and that's why they're in trouble. they're in trouble. they're in trouble. >> I I I completely agree. And I think it's >> I I I completely agree. And I think it's >> I I I completely agree. And I think it's funny because sometimes I think that the funny because sometimes I think that the funny because sometimes I think that the audience might not understand that. But audience might not understand that. But audience might not understand that. But the reality is in the real world when I the reality is in the real world when I the reality is in the real world when I go outside and I speak to people, they go outside and I speak to people, they go outside and I speak to people, they understand that and they appreciate understand that and they appreciate understand that and they appreciate that. It's just sometimes I think vocal that. It's just sometimes I think vocal that. It's just sometimes I think vocal minorities that that really don't want minorities that that really don't want minorities that that really don't want to hear from someone that disagrees with to hear from someone that disagrees with to hear from someone that disagrees with them at all. But I I just are they them at all. But I I just are they them at all. But I I just are they really vocal minorities or are they really vocal minorities or are they really vocal minorities or are they bots? Are they algorithmically created? bots? Are they algorithmically created? bots? Are they algorithmically created? When you and I are on the street and When you and I are on the street and When you and I are on the street and people come up to us, it's over and it's people come up to us, it's over and it's people come up to us, it's over and it's random. It's overwhelmingly friendly. random. It's overwhelmingly friendly. random. It's overwhelmingly friendly. >> Maybe, you know, I I think the digital >> Maybe, you know, I I think the digital >> Maybe, you know, I I think the digital world is not really a human world. And world is not really a human world. And world is not really a human world. And that's why it's so much more important that's why it's so much more important that's why it's so much more important to do more live, just get out there. to do more live, just get out there. to do more live, just get out there. Also, do more long form. The more that Also, do more long form. The more that Also, do more long form. The more that we can do to resist the algorithm, the we can do to resist the algorithm, the we can do to resist the algorithm, the better we'll be as a planet, the better better we'll be as a planet, the better better we'll be as a planet, the better we'll be as a species. we'll be as a species. we'll be as a species. >> I'm so in love with the idea of like >> I'm so in love with the idea of like >> I'm so in love with the idea of like talking to people you disagree with or talking to people you disagree with or talking to people you disagree with or just have a difference of opinion with. just have a difference of opinion with. just have a difference of opinion with. I'm so in love by their I remember I'm so in love by their I remember I'm so in love by their I remember reading a quote once that said if you reading a quote once that said if you reading a quote once that said if you have the same opinion if you have the have the same opinion if you have the have the same opinion if you have the same complete set of opinions as one same complete set of opinions as one same complete set of opinions as one group of people those are not your group of people those are not your group of people those are not your opinions and I find that to be really opinions and I find that to be really opinions and I find that to be really really true because I can steal and take really true because I can steal and take really true because I can steal and take ideas and opinions that I agree with ideas and opinions that I agree with ideas and opinions that I agree with from almost everybody that I speak to. from almost everybody that I speak to. from almost everybody that I speak to. And this is such a strange position to And this is such a strange position to And this is such a strange position to take in an algorithmically driven world take in an algorithmically driven world take in an algorithmically driven world where the echo chamber will un where the echo chamber will un where the echo chamber will un unbelievably unbelievably unbelievably reinforce and protect me if I just reinforce and protect me if I just reinforce and protect me if I just choose a side. choose a side. choose a side. >> That's right. And the part of my life >> That's right. And the part of my life >> That's right. And the part of my life that that resists this is that my view that that resists this is that my view that that resists this is that my view is that if you hold the same opinions as is that if you hold the same opinions as is that if you hold the same opinions as the world is changing, you will be the world is changing, you will be the world is changing, you will be wrong. wrong. wrong. >> True. Yeah. >> True. Yeah. >> True. Yeah. >> And but the algorithm doesn't want you >> And but the algorithm doesn't want you >> And but the algorithm doesn't want you to change your views. to change your views. to change your views. >> Is there any closing remarks that you >> Is there any closing remarks that you >> Is there any closing remarks that you have for for the listeners based on the have for for the listeners based on the have for for the listeners based on the journey we've been on? journey we've been on? journey we've been on? >> I mean, again, I know you're based um >> I mean, again, I know you're based um >> I mean, again, I know you're based um you're Brit. you're Brit. you're Brit. >> I live in Los Angeles as well. >> I live in Los Angeles as well. >> I live in Los Angeles as well. >> Yeah, I know. But but still, I mean, you >> Yeah, I know. But but still, I mean, you >> Yeah, I know. But but still, I mean, you know, you got an accent and I mean, you know, you got an accent and I mean, you know, you got an accent and I mean, you know, you're global. You four years old. know, you're global. You four years old. know, you're global. You four years old. You bought Batswana, right? that whole You bought Batswana, right? that whole You bought Batswana, right? that whole story. Um, I mean, the fact is that story. Um, I mean, the fact is that story. Um, I mean, the fact is that you've managed to build something you've managed to build something you've managed to build something global global global without promoting irresponsible lies and without promoting irresponsible lies and without promoting irresponsible lies and hatred and dislike. And I don't I don't hatred and dislike. And I don't I don't hatred and dislike. And I don't I don't think you're bad for people, right? And think you're bad for people, right? And think you're bad for people, right? And we need more of that. Look, I mean, I I we need more of that. Look, I mean, I I we need more of that. Look, I mean, I I I think about when I think about where I think about when I think about where I think about when I think about where power is coming from, it's not just tech power is coming from, it's not just tech power is coming from, it's not just tech companies. It's also people outside of companies. It's also people outside of companies. It's also people outside of established political force. When I was established political force. When I was established political force. When I was a kid, I was here's what we're talking a kid, I was here's what we're talking a kid, I was here's what we're talking about. I was in second grade, I think. about. I was in second grade, I think. about. I was in second grade, I think. Uh my my teacher's name was uh Miss Uh my my teacher's name was uh Miss Uh my my teacher's name was uh Miss Criticico. She was she was Greek. And Criticico. She was she was Greek. And Criticico. She was she was Greek. And she was asking us, we were talking about she was asking us, we were talking about she was asking us, we were talking about um the elections and she was asking us um the elections and she was asking us um the elections and she was asking us who wanted to be president and and she who wanted to be president and and she who wanted to be president and and she was talking about what it meant to be was talking about what it meant to be was talking about what it meant to be president. I remember raising my hand of president. I remember raising my hand of president. I remember raising my hand of course and everyone's talking about course and everyone's talking about course and everyone's talking about think how cool it would be. And then all think how cool it would be. And then all think how cool it would be. And then all of a sudden, Ian, why why why do would of a sudden, Ian, why why why do would of a sudden, Ian, why why why do would you want to be president? And I looked you want to be president? And I looked you want to be president? And I looked around and I realized that I was the around and I realized that I was the around and I realized that I was the only person that had my hand up, which only person that had my hand up, which only person that had my hand up, which did not make any sense to me at the did not make any sense to me at the did not make any sense to me at the time. I would not have my hand up today. time. I would not have my hand up today. time. I would not have my hand up today. I thought when I grew up, I really I thought when I grew up, I really I thought when I grew up, I really believed that like public service was believed that like public service was believed that like public service was the ultimate expression of how you make the ultimate expression of how you make the ultimate expression of how you make a difference. That is no longer true. a difference. That is no longer true. a difference. That is no longer true. But it's not because our system is so But it's not because our system is so But it's not because our system is so broken, it's so bad. It's rather that we broken, it's so bad. It's rather that we broken, it's so bad. It's rather that we have created all sorts of opportunities have created all sorts of opportunities have created all sorts of opportunities for people to really make a difference for people to really make a difference for people to really make a difference globally outside of political globally outside of political globally outside of political institutions. And I've devoted my life institutions. And I've devoted my life institutions. And I've devoted my life to that uh professionally. And I think to that uh professionally. And I think to that uh professionally. And I think it's incredibly important, right? And it's incredibly important, right? And it's incredibly important, right? And maybe people don't agree with me uh all maybe people don't agree with me uh all maybe people don't agree with me uh all the time. Obviously, that's fine. But the time. Obviously, that's fine. But the time. Obviously, that's fine. But they do know that I really care about they do know that I really care about they do know that I really care about what I'm doing and I'm trying to get what I'm doing and I'm trying to get what I'm doing and I'm trying to get better over time. That's all we can do. better over time. That's all we can do. better over time. That's all we can do. Um and I don't think that has to be It Um and I don't think that has to be It Um and I don't think that has to be It turns out I'll go through my life and turns out I'll go through my life and turns out I'll go through my life and hopefully I'll have a long and healthy hopefully I'll have a long and healthy hopefully I'll have a long and healthy life and I don't think I'll ever have life and I don't think I'll ever have life and I don't think I'll ever have served in public office, but hopefully served in public office, but hopefully served in public office, but hopefully continue to have more and more impact in continue to have more and more impact in continue to have more and more impact in a good way over time. a good way over time. a good way over time. >> Yeah. I remember I remember hearing um >> Yeah. I remember I remember hearing um >> Yeah. I remember I remember hearing um Neil Degrass Tyson say something very Neil Degrass Tyson say something very Neil Degrass Tyson say something very similar where he said the most powerful similar where he said the most powerful similar where he said the most powerful people on planet earth are no longer the people on planet earth are no longer the people on planet earth are no longer the elected. They are those that influence elected. They are those that influence elected. They are those that influence the electorate because they end up going the electorate because they end up going the electorate because they end up going to the polls and making that decision to the polls and making that decision to the polls and making that decision and and so it is a huge amount of and and so it is a huge amount of and and so it is a huge amount of responsibility in such a world for responsibility in such a world for responsibility in such a world for people like yourself who I do think do a people like yourself who I do think do a people like yourself who I do think do a public service and educating all of us. public service and educating all of us. public service and educating all of us. I mean look at all these books in front I mean look at all these books in front I mean look at all these books in front of me. of me. of me. >> Um unbelievable how many books you've >> Um unbelievable how many books you've >> Um unbelievable how many books you've written and how incredible they all are. written and how incredible they all are. written and how incredible they all are. >> I don't know how you found them all but >> I don't know how you found them all but >> I don't know how you found them all but they are out there. Yeah. Yeah. I'm they are out there. Yeah. Yeah. I'm they are out there. Yeah. Yeah. I'm going to link all of them below and I going to link all of them below and I going to link all of them below and I would ask my audience to take a look at would ask my audience to take a look at would ask my audience to take a look at the variety of different I think this is the variety of different I think this is the variety of different I think this is the most recent one. The power of the the most recent one. The power of the the most recent one. The power of the most another one coming out next year most another one coming out next year most another one coming out next year too. too. too. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> What's the new book coming? >> What's the new book coming? >> What's the new book coming? >> Don't have a title yet. >> Don't have a title yet. >> Don't have a title yet. >> Oh, you don't have no >> Oh, you don't have no >> Oh, you don't have no >> um The power of crisis, how three >> um The power of crisis, how three >> um The power of crisis, how three threats and our response will change the threats and our response will change the threats and our response will change the world. And in this book, you talk more world. And in this book, you talk more world. And in this book, you talk more about AI as one of those threats as about AI as one of those threats as about AI as one of those threats as well, but I'm going to link them all well, but I'm going to link them all well, but I'm going to link them all below. And I highly recommend people go below. And I highly recommend people go below. And I highly recommend people go and follow you both on your YouTube and follow you both on your YouTube and follow you both on your YouTube channel where you make content channel where you make content channel where you make content frequently about these issues as they're frequently about these issues as they're frequently about these issues as they're evolving. If you want to keep in touch evolving. If you want to keep in touch evolving. If you want to keep in touch with Ian's perspective and also over on with Ian's perspective and also over on with Ian's perspective and also over on your ex page, you've got over a million your ex page, you've got over a million your ex page, you've got over a million followers over on X. Big audience over followers over on X. Big audience over followers over on X. Big audience over there. there. there. >> We have a closing tradition on this >> We have a closing tradition on this >> We have a closing tradition on this podcast when the last guest leaves a podcast when the last guest leaves a podcast when the last guest leaves a question for the next guest, not knowing question for the next guest, not knowing question for the next guest, not knowing who they're leaving it for. who they're leaving it for. who they're leaving it for. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> And the question left for you is I >> And the question left for you is I >> And the question left for you is I cannot read this. Okay, here we go. cannot read this. Okay, here we go. cannot read this. Okay, here we go. >> When you are on your deathbed, how will >> When you are on your deathbed, how will >> When you are on your deathbed, how will you describe your life? you describe your life? you describe your life? >> Unanticipated. >> Sounds like a a good life. Definitely. I >> Sounds like a a good life. Definitely. I mean, you know, let's face it, the my mean, you know, let's face it, the my mean, you know, let's face it, the my optimism comes from the fact that we optimism comes from the fact that we optimism comes from the fact that we have no idea what we did to deserve have no idea what we did to deserve have no idea what we did to deserve being here. being here. being here. >> So, every day is kind of like it's a bit >> So, every day is kind of like it's a bit >> So, every day is kind of like it's a bit of a gift, right? The more you can of a gift, right? The more you can of a gift, right? The more you can remember that, the more I think the remember that, the more I think the remember that, the more I think the better off we are. better off we are. better off we are. >> Ian, thank you. I really appreciate all >> Ian, thank you. I really appreciate all >> Ian, thank you. I really appreciate all the nice you and you. Um, I've been the nice you and you. Um, I've been the nice you and you. Um, I've been watching you for many, many, many, many watching you for many, many, many, many watching you for many, many, many, many years. and uh whenever the world years. and uh whenever the world years. and uh whenever the world descends into turmoil and I'm looking descends into turmoil and I'm looking descends into turmoil and I'm looking for someone who can turn the lights on for someone who can turn the lights on for someone who can turn the lights on for me. You're the person that I come to for me. You're the person that I come to for me. You're the person that I come to typically on YouTube. I watch most of typically on YouTube. I watch most of typically on YouTube. I watch most of your stuff on there, but I also follow your stuff on there, but I also follow your stuff on there, but I also follow you on X and find your takes um you on X and find your takes um you on X and find your takes um incredibly accessible and um incredibly accessible and um incredibly accessible and um demystifying, which is I think exactly demystifying, which is I think exactly demystifying, which is I think exactly what we need more of at this time. So, what we need more of at this time. So, what we need more of at this time. So, you are doing a public service even you are doing a public service even you are doing a public service even though you're not running a country. Um though you're not running a country. Um though you're not running a country. Um you're helping people like me understand you're helping people like me understand you're helping people like me understand all of this craziness and therefore um all of this craziness and therefore um all of this craziness and therefore um hopefully live better lives and make hopefully live better lives and make hopefully live better lives and make better decisions as to who we elect and better decisions as to who we elect and better decisions as to who we elect and and how we think about the world and how and how we think about the world and how and how we think about the world and how we treat one another. So, thank you for we treat one another. So, thank you for we treat one another. So, thank you for doing that. It's it's a great service to doing that. It's it's a great service to doing that. It's it's a great service to humanity. humanity. humanity. >> Well, it's very motivating to hear that, >> Well, it's very motivating to hear that, >> Well, it's very motivating to hear that, frankly, and uh I promise you I'll keep frankly, and uh I promise you I'll keep frankly, and uh I promise you I'll keep doing my best side. doing my best side. doing my best side. >> Thank you. YouTube have this new crazy >> Thank you. YouTube have this new crazy >> Thank you. YouTube have this new crazy algorithm where they know exactly what algorithm where they know exactly what algorithm where they know exactly what video you would like to watch next based video you would like to watch next based video you would like to watch next based on AI and all of your viewing behavior. on AI and all of your viewing behavior. on AI and all of your viewing behavior. And the algorithm says that this video And the algorithm says that this video And the algorithm says that this video is the perfect video for you. It's is the perfect video for you. It's is the perfect video for you. It's different for everybody looking right different for everybody looking right different for everybody looking right now. Check this video out and I bet you now. Check this video out and I bet you now. Check this video out and I bet you you might love