URGENT UPDATE - The Iran War Expert: The Most Dangerous Stage Begins Now

Iran has figured out that we can't beat Iran has figured out that we can't beat them. We're not weakening Iran. We have them. We're not weakening Iran. We have them. We're not weakening Iran. We have strengthened Iran and we can't stop strengthened Iran and we can't stop strengthened Iran and we can't stop their drone attacks. And what you're their drone attacks. And what you're their drone attacks. And what you're seeing is far more chaotic seeing is far more chaotic seeing is far more chaotic decision-making is happening in the decision-making is happening in the decision-making is happening in the White House than is happening in the White House than is happening in the White House than is happening in the government of Iran and it's evidence government of Iran and it's evidence government of Iran and it's evidence Trump is losing power. So when I look Trump is losing power. So when I look Trump is losing power. So when I look through the response to the last through the response to the last through the response to the last conversation, the audience had lots of conversation, the audience had lots of conversation, the audience had lots of different types of questions. Like different types of questions. Like different types of questions. Like there's 90 odd million people stuck there's 90 odd million people stuck there's 90 odd million people stuck right in the heart of this that often right in the heart of this that often right in the heart of this that often don't really have a voice. What do you don't really have a voice. What do you don't really have a voice. What do you think happens next for them and what is think happens next for them and what is think happens next for them and what is Israel's role in this? Israel's role in this? Israel's role in this? >> Well, Israel is playing two roles here >> Well, Israel is playing two roles here >> Well, Israel is playing two roles here that have not helped us correctly assess that have not helped us correctly assess that have not helped us correctly assess the situation and we'll talk about that. the situation and we'll talk about that. the situation and we'll talk about that. >> And then what do you think happens with >> And then what do you think happens with >> And then what do you think happens with Europe? Europe? Europe? >> NATO is for all practical purposes dead >> NATO is for all practical purposes dead >> NATO is for all practical purposes dead and what happens next. and what happens next. and what happens next. >> So for 21 years, I laid out what a >> So for 21 years, I laid out what a >> So for 21 years, I laid out what a hypothetical bombing campaign of Iran hypothetical bombing campaign of Iran hypothetical bombing campaign of Iran would look like. And when I was here would look like. And when I was here would look like. And when I was here last time, every single thing we talked last time, every single thing we talked last time, every single thing we talked about unfolded in the first several about unfolded in the first several about unfolded in the first several weeks of the war. weeks of the war. weeks of the war. >> So when you did this 21 years of >> So when you did this 21 years of >> So when you did this 21 years of modeling these attacks, how did America modeling these attacks, how did America modeling these attacks, how did America come out of this situation? come out of this situation? come out of this situation? >> So there was a consistent set of >> So there was a consistent set of >> So there was a consistent set of findings and America can bomb them, findings and America can bomb them, findings and America can bomb them, attack them. We could even threaten to attack them. We could even threaten to attack them. We could even threaten to murder all 92 million of them. But the murder all 92 million of them. But the murder all 92 million of them. But the bottom line is bottom line is bottom line is that is the real danger for us. This is super interesting to me. My team This is super interesting to me. My team gave me this report to show me how many gave me this report to show me how many gave me this report to show me how many of you that watch this show subscribe. of you that watch this show subscribe. of you that watch this show subscribe. And some of you have told us according And some of you have told us according And some of you have told us according to this that you are unsubscribe from to this that you are unsubscribe from to this that you are unsubscribe from the channel randomly. So favor to ask the channel randomly. So favor to ask the channel randomly. So favor to ask all of you. Please could you check right all of you. Please could you check right all of you. 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Professor Robert Pabe, good to see you Professor Robert Pabe, good to see you again. again. again. >> Great to see you again, Stephen. >> Great to see you again, Stephen. >> Great to see you again, Stephen. >> It's been 4 weeks since we sat down and >> It's been 4 weeks since we sat down and >> It's been 4 weeks since we sat down and talked about everything that was talked about everything that was talked about everything that was happening in the war and it's all moved happening in the war and it's all moved happening in the war and it's all moved at light speed. You made some at light speed. You made some at light speed. You made some predictions then. Many of them have come predictions then. Many of them have come predictions then. Many of them have come true already and many of them still true already and many of them still true already and many of them still unfolding. But I wanted to get you back unfolding. But I wanted to get you back unfolding. But I wanted to get you back to talk about what the hell is going on. to talk about what the hell is going on. to talk about what the hell is going on. And I think that's kind of how I started And I think that's kind of how I started And I think that's kind of how I started last conversation. But there's so much last conversation. But there's so much last conversation. But there's so much that's being said and I get the sense that's being said and I get the sense that's being said and I get the sense that there's a truth that sits that there's a truth that sits that there's a truth that sits underneath there somewhere because when underneath there somewhere because when underneath there somewhere because when you look at what the Iranians are you look at what the Iranians are you look at what the Iranians are saying, when you look at what the saying, when you look at what the saying, when you look at what the Israelis are saying, when you look at Israelis are saying, when you look at Israelis are saying, when you look at what Trump and America are saying, and what Trump and America are saying, and what Trump and America are saying, and then you look at reality, at some level, then you look at reality, at some level, then you look at reality, at some level, I feel like we're not being told the I feel like we're not being told the I feel like we're not being told the truth. My first question to you, truth. My first question to you, truth. My first question to you, professor, is who are you and who are professor, is who are you and who are professor, is who are you and who are you to speak on this subject matter? you to speak on this subject matter? you to speak on this subject matter? >> I am a professor at the University of >> I am a professor at the University of >> I am a professor at the University of Chicago. I have been there for 26 years Chicago. I have been there for 26 years Chicago. I have been there for 26 years almost 27 years and before that I was a almost 27 years and before that I was a almost 27 years and before that I was a professor who taught for the US Air professor who taught for the US Air professor who taught for the US Air Force. I taught conventional targeting Force. I taught conventional targeting Force. I taught conventional targeting and I thought I was going to go into the and I thought I was going to go into the and I thought I was going to go into the foreign service. I wanted to understand foreign service. I wanted to understand foreign service. I wanted to understand how we lost the Vietnam War and this how we lost the Vietnam War and this how we lost the Vietnam War and this became the origins of bombing to win became the origins of bombing to win became the origins of bombing to win >> which is your book I have here in front >> which is your book I have here in front >> which is your book I have here in front of me. of me. of me. >> That's bombing to win in 1985. I've just >> That's bombing to win in 1985. I've just >> That's bombing to win in 1985. I've just finished all my classes and I have to finished all my classes and I have to finished all my classes and I have to pick a topic for my PhD. I wanted to pick a topic for my PhD. I wanted to pick a topic for my PhD. I wanted to find the book that laid out all the air find the book that laid out all the air find the book that laid out all the air campaigns and that explained why Vietnam campaigns and that explained why Vietnam campaigns and that explained why Vietnam was a loser. Where did that L come from? was a loser. Where did that L come from? was a loser. Where did that L come from? When you say air campaigns, for someone When you say air campaigns, for someone When you say air campaigns, for someone that knows nothing about military that knows nothing about military that knows nothing about military conflict, what do you mean by air conflict, what do you mean by air conflict, what do you mean by air campaigns? campaigns? campaigns? >> What I mean with an air campaign is when >> What I mean with an air campaign is when >> What I mean with an air campaign is when you have military aircraft who were not you have military aircraft who were not you have military aircraft who were not just doing a single raid bombing one just doing a single raid bombing one just doing a single raid bombing one target one day, but doing a campaign target one day, but doing a campaign target one day, but doing a campaign over days, weeks, months. in the case of over days, weeks, months. in the case of over days, weeks, months. in the case of Vietnam over years. Vietnam over years. Vietnam over years. >> And you wanted to figure out why >> And you wanted to figure out why >> And you wanted to figure out why countries that do these military countries that do these military countries that do these military campaigns, which is pretty much what's campaigns, which is pretty much what's campaigns, which is pretty much what's going on now in the Middle East, why going on now in the Middle East, why going on now in the Middle East, why they don't tend to win. they don't tend to win. they don't tend to win. >> Why they don't win when they're so >> Why they don't win when they're so >> Why they don't win when they're so strong? Why is it that when a strong strong? Why is it that when a strong strong? Why is it that when a strong power really gets its act together, it's power really gets its act together, it's power really gets its act together, it's not careless, it's really thinking hard, not careless, it's really thinking hard, not careless, it's really thinking hard, it then applies this force, a campaign it then applies this force, a campaign it then applies this force, a campaign overtime and comes out a loser. overtime and comes out a loser. overtime and comes out a loser. >> And you modeled for 20 years a war with >> And you modeled for 20 years a war with >> And you modeled for 20 years a war with Iran versus the United States. Iran versus the United States. Iran versus the United States. >> That's exactly right. I imagined uh in >> That's exactly right. I imagined uh in >> That's exactly right. I imagined uh in class for 90 minutes I laid out what a class for 90 minutes I laid out what a class for 90 minutes I laid out what a hypothetical bombing campaign of Iran hypothetical bombing campaign of Iran hypothetical bombing campaign of Iran would look like starting with the would look like starting with the would look like starting with the bombing of its nuclear enrichment sites. bombing of its nuclear enrichment sites. bombing of its nuclear enrichment sites. There's multiple sites. There's uh Ford There's multiple sites. There's uh Ford There's multiple sites. There's uh Ford which is an industrial enrichment where which is an industrial enrichment where which is an industrial enrichment where there are centerfuges. There's Natans there are centerfuges. There's Natans there are centerfuges. There's Natans also centuges. There's Esphon where you also centuges. There's Esphon where you also centuges. There's Esphon where you have gasification of the ore so you can have gasification of the ore so you can have gasification of the ore so you can make the centurfuges more efficient. So, make the centurfuges more efficient. So, make the centurfuges more efficient. So, it's not just one target. There's a it's not just one target. There's a it's not just one target. There's a whole target set, a complex of targets. whole target set, a complex of targets. whole target set, a complex of targets. And so, what I would do is I would lay And so, what I would do is I would lay And so, what I would do is I would lay out here are the aircraft that could be out here are the aircraft that could be out here are the aircraft that could be used. Uh, here are the likely results at used. Uh, here are the likely results at used. Uh, here are the likely results at a tactical level. a tactical level. a tactical level. Ah, yes, just for context. So, we're Ah, yes, just for context. So, we're Ah, yes, just for context. So, we're looking at a map of Iran and we're looking at a map of Iran and we're looking at a map of Iran and we're looking at the Persian Gulf. And um Iran looking at the Persian Gulf. And um Iran looking at the Persian Gulf. And um Iran of course is to the east of the of the of course is to the east of the of the of course is to the east of the of the Persian Gulf and Thran is up to the Persian Gulf and Thran is up to the Persian Gulf and Thran is up to the north middle. Right in the middle are a north middle. Right in the middle are a north middle. Right in the middle are a whole series of these nuclear sites. You whole series of these nuclear sites. You whole series of these nuclear sites. You have Sagad which is where the uranium have Sagad which is where the uranium have Sagad which is where the uranium ore actually comes from. They don't have ore actually comes from. They don't have ore actually comes from. They don't have to bring in ore. They have plenty of to bring in ore. They have plenty of to bring in ore. They have plenty of ore, but the ore has to be distilled so ore, but the ore has to be distilled so ore, but the ore has to be distilled so that you can get the tiny bits of that you can get the tiny bits of that you can get the tiny bits of uranium 235 you need for uh enriching uranium 235 you need for uh enriching uranium 235 you need for uh enriching the uranium for either nuclear reactors the uranium for either nuclear reactors the uranium for either nuclear reactors or bombgrade uranium. That's first none or bombgrade uranium. That's first none or bombgrade uranium. That's first none at esphon to gasify the ore so that when at esphon to gasify the ore so that when at esphon to gasify the ore so that when it spins in the centerfuge uh facilities it spins in the centerfuge uh facilities it spins in the centerfuge uh facilities at Natans and Ford, you can get the at Natans and Ford, you can get the at Natans and Ford, you can get the purity of the uranium 235. That's what purity of the uranium 235. That's what purity of the uranium 235. That's what we're talking about here when we say we're talking about here when we say we're talking about here when we say it's enriched. it's enriched. it's enriched. >> So when you did this 21 years of >> So when you did this 21 years of >> So when you did this 21 years of modeling these attacks, how did the modeling these attacks, how did the modeling these attacks, how did the model show model show model show America came out of this situation? America came out of this situation? America came out of this situation? >> There was a consistent set of findings >> There was a consistent set of findings >> There was a consistent set of findings you just couldn't ignore, Stephen, which you just couldn't ignore, Stephen, which you just couldn't ignore, Stephen, which is our bombers would always be able to is our bombers would always be able to is our bombers would always be able to destroy the target, the industrial destroy the target, the industrial destroy the target, the industrial facility that was enriching the uranium. facility that was enriching the uranium. facility that was enriching the uranium. The problem always was, no matter uh The problem always was, no matter uh The problem always was, no matter uh which year we did this, you wouldn't be which year we did this, you wouldn't be which year we did this, you wouldn't be able to destroy the enriched material, able to destroy the enriched material, able to destroy the enriched material, the actual gold. So, if you're panning the actual gold. So, if you're panning the actual gold. So, if you're panning for gold, you see what I mean? And for gold, you see what I mean? And for gold, you see what I mean? And you've got the gold. Uh you can destroy you've got the gold. Uh you can destroy you've got the gold. Uh you can destroy the pan, you can even destroy the river, the pan, you can even destroy the river, the pan, you can even destroy the river, you can't get the gold. So, let me you can't get the gold. So, let me you can't get the gold. So, let me repeat that back to you in layman's repeat that back to you in layman's repeat that back to you in layman's terms, and you tell me if I'm correct. terms, and you tell me if I'm correct. terms, and you tell me if I'm correct. So they they could bomb these sites So they they could bomb these sites So they they could bomb these sites where they're making the enriched where they're making the enriched where they're making the enriched uranium, but it wouldn't destroy the uranium, but it wouldn't destroy the uranium, but it wouldn't destroy the enriched uranium. It would just put it enriched uranium. It would just put it enriched uranium. It would just put it underneath a bunch of rubble. underneath a bunch of rubble. underneath a bunch of rubble. >> That's right. >> That's right. >> That's right. >> So you can bomb it, but you're basically >> So you can bomb it, but you're basically >> So you can bomb it, but you're basically just kicking the can down the road just kicking the can down the road just kicking the can down the road because at some point they can go back because at some point they can go back because at some point they can go back and get it. It's undamaged. And then and get it. It's undamaged. And then and get it. It's undamaged. And then they can carry on their process. they can carry on their process. they can carry on their process. >> That's right. And and Stephen, they >> That's right. And and Stephen, they >> That's right. And and Stephen, they might even anticipate the bombs coming might even anticipate the bombs coming might even anticipate the bombs coming because they might get some indications, because they might get some indications, because they might get some indications, you know, we're building up and then you know, we're building up and then you know, we're building up and then disperse in advance. And the at the end disperse in advance. And the at the end disperse in advance. And the at the end of last year they did operation midnight of last year they did operation midnight of last year they did operation midnight hammer where they bombed the sides with hammer where they bombed the sides with hammer where they bombed the sides with these incredible these incredible these incredible >> exactly as we did in class. Literally I >> exactly as we did in class. Literally I >> exactly as we did in class. Literally I had just modeled it for the students had just modeled it for the students had just modeled it for the students three weeks before and almost exactly three weeks before and almost exactly three weeks before and almost exactly the platforms I mean on you know the B2s the platforms I mean on you know the B2s the platforms I mean on you know the B2s the MOAB I mean every single thing we the MOAB I mean every single thing we the MOAB I mean every single thing we talked about if unfolded just as we had talked about if unfolded just as we had talked about if unfolded just as we had modeled in class. modeled in class. modeled in class. >> So what is going on now? I want you to >> So what is going on now? I want you to >> So what is going on now? I want you to help me cut through all of this noise help me cut through all of this noise help me cut through all of this noise and all of this propaganda. What's going and all of this propaganda. What's going and all of this propaganda. What's going on now is uh we're not weakening Iran in on now is uh we're not weakening Iran in on now is uh we're not weakening Iran in a sense where Iran will be weaker a year a sense where Iran will be weaker a year a sense where Iran will be weaker a year from now, two years from now. We have from now, two years from now. We have from now, two years from now. We have strengthened Iran and we're strengthened Iran and we're strengthened Iran and we're strengthening Iran in multiple ways. So strengthening Iran in multiple ways. So strengthening Iran in multiple ways. So far, we've just been talking about bombs far, we've just been talking about bombs far, we've just been talking about bombs on target. My real specialty, Stephen, on target. My real specialty, Stephen, on target. My real specialty, Stephen, is the interaction of military action is the interaction of military action is the interaction of military action and politics. You're not just hitting an and politics. You're not just hitting an and politics. You're not just hitting an industrial target. people in the industrial target. people in the industrial target. people in the country, the population, the regime, country, the population, the regime, country, the population, the regime, they're reacting to that politically. they're reacting to that politically. they're reacting to that politically. And that reaction is tremendously And that reaction is tremendously And that reaction is tremendously important. And that's what I discovered important. And that's what I discovered important. And that's what I discovered in my work studying Vietnam in the in my work studying Vietnam in the in my work studying Vietnam in the 1980s. The why the bombing campaign was 1980s. The why the bombing campaign was 1980s. The why the bombing campaign was failing, the political reactions by the failing, the political reactions by the failing, the political reactions by the population population population often are overwhelming the tactical often are overwhelming the tactical often are overwhelming the tactical military effects. So you can hit the military effects. So you can hit the military effects. So you can hit the target, you can destroy the industrial target, you can destroy the industrial target, you can destroy the industrial facilities um and in fact you can facilities um and in fact you can facilities um and in fact you can energize the population to work even energize the population to work even energize the population to work even harder to overcome all that damage and harder to overcome all that damage and harder to overcome all that damage and sometimes they have tremendous sometimes they have tremendous sometimes they have tremendous geographic advantages. In Vietnam, there geographic advantages. In Vietnam, there geographic advantages. In Vietnam, there was an area called the Ho Chi Min Trail, was an area called the Ho Chi Min Trail, was an area called the Ho Chi Min Trail, which was a where the logistics where which was a where the logistics where which was a where the logistics where the ammo for the um Vietkong guerrilla the ammo for the um Vietkong guerrilla the ammo for the um Vietkong guerrilla fighters in the south were getting their fighters in the south were getting their fighters in the south were getting their ammo. And in the 1960s, we knocked out ammo. And in the 1960s, we knocked out ammo. And in the 1960s, we knocked out 80 plus% of the throughput of that 80 plus% of the throughput of that 80 plus% of the throughput of that pipeline, of that trail. You know what? pipeline, of that trail. You know what? pipeline, of that trail. You know what? It wasn't enough. And we ended up not It wasn't enough. And we ended up not It wasn't enough. And we ended up not being able to stop that little itty being able to stop that little itty being able to stop that little itty bitty bit of throughput that can't still bitty bit of throughput that can't still bitty bit of throughput that can't still could get through and incentivize even could get through and incentivize even could get through and incentivize even more to get it through because they knew more to get it through because they knew more to get it through because they knew we couldn't stop it. And that is what we couldn't stop it. And that is what we couldn't stop it. And that is what fueled the VC and ultimately uh the fueled the VC and ultimately uh the fueled the VC and ultimately uh the Vietkong the gorillas that were uh we Vietkong the gorillas that were uh we Vietkong the gorillas that were uh we were really up against in Vietnam. That were really up against in Vietnam. That were really up against in Vietnam. That is what ultimately bolstered their is what ultimately bolstered their is what ultimately bolstered their morale. They knew we couldn't beat them. morale. They knew we couldn't beat them. morale. They knew we couldn't beat them. Even though we whittleled them down by Even though we whittleled them down by Even though we whittleled them down by 80%, we couldn't get that last 15 or 80%, we couldn't get that last 15 or 80%, we couldn't get that last 15 or 20%. And that was what was energizing 20%. And that was what was energizing 20%. And that was what was energizing their morale. their morale. their morale. >> So, how does that apply to what's going >> So, how does that apply to what's going >> So, how does that apply to what's going on now? In simple terms, what's going on now? In simple terms, what's going on now? In simple terms, what's going on? on? on? >> Iran has figured out that uh we can't >> Iran has figured out that uh we can't >> Iran has figured out that uh we can't beat them. That's what's going on, beat them. That's what's going on, beat them. That's what's going on, Stephen. They are figuring out that we Stephen. They are figuring out that we Stephen. They are figuring out that we can't beat them. We can bomb them. We can't beat them. We can bomb them. We can't beat them. We can bomb them. We can um attack them. We could even can um attack them. We could even can um attack them. We could even threaten to murder all 92 million of threaten to murder all 92 million of threaten to murder all 92 million of them, which is the civilization threat them, which is the civilization threat them, which is the civilization threat by uh by President Trump. And the bottom by uh by President Trump. And the bottom by uh by President Trump. And the bottom line is that we can't get to that final line is that we can't get to that final line is that we can't get to that final 10 20% of um drones and missiles. 10 20% of um drones and missiles. 10 20% of um drones and missiles. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> Okay. That Iran has and it's probably >> Okay. That Iran has and it's probably >> Okay. That Iran has and it's probably bigger than that that we can't knock bigger than that that we can't knock bigger than that that we can't knock out. See, we're able to knock out out. See, we're able to knock out out. See, we're able to knock out anything that's above ground. that anything that's above ground. that anything that's above ground. that there's a launcher and it's above there's a launcher and it's above there's a launcher and it's above ground, we can see it. We can see it ground, we can see it. We can see it ground, we can see it. We can see it with satellites. We can see it with with satellites. We can see it with with satellites. We can see it with other sensors as well. That thing is other sensors as well. That thing is other sensors as well. That thing is going to be gone in a few days. And going to be gone in a few days. And going to be gone in a few days. And that's what the air campaign that you've that's what the air campaign that you've that's what the air campaign that you've watched for 40 days is doing. When watched for 40 days is doing. When watched for 40 days is doing. When Secretary Hegth or General Kaine talk Secretary Hegth or General Kaine talk Secretary Hegth or General Kaine talk about hitting 11 12,000 targets, these about hitting 11 12,000 targets, these about hitting 11 12,000 targets, these are targets, most of the almost all of are targets, most of the almost all of are targets, most of the almost all of them that are very clearly visible and them that are very clearly visible and them that are very clearly visible and above ground. This is true of the Navy above ground. This is true of the Navy above ground. This is true of the Navy ships as well. Well, guess what? The ships as well. Well, guess what? The ships as well. Well, guess what? The Iranians knew that was always going to Iranians knew that was always going to Iranians knew that was always going to be vulnerable. So what they've been be vulnerable. So what they've been be vulnerable. So what they've been doing is they have been not just deeply doing is they have been not just deeply doing is they have been not just deeply uh burying their industrial enrichment uh burying their industrial enrichment uh burying their industrial enrichment facilities, they've been deeply burying facilities, they've been deeply burying facilities, they've been deeply burying their arsenals of drones, deeply burying their arsenals of drones, deeply burying their arsenals of drones, deeply burying their arsenals of missiles. And so they their arsenals of missiles. And so they their arsenals of missiles. And so they are in a position where even though we are in a position where even though we are in a position where even though we are unleashing enormous amounts of air are unleashing enormous amounts of air are unleashing enormous amounts of air power against them and we are power against them and we are power against them and we are technically superior, we can't stop technically superior, we can't stop technically superior, we can't stop their drone attacks against the ships in their drone attacks against the ships in their drone attacks against the ships in the straight of Hormuz. They know it. the straight of Hormuz. They know it. the straight of Hormuz. They know it. They can use that to their advantage. They can use that to their advantage. They can use that to their advantage. And boy are they using it to their And boy are they using it to their And boy are they using it to their advantage enormously. Yesterday, the advantage enormously. Yesterday, the advantage enormously. Yesterday, the Secretary of War, Pete Hegsth, did a Secretary of War, Pete Hegsth, did a Secretary of War, Pete Hegsth, did a press conference, and one of the press conference, and one of the press conference, and one of the reporters said to him, "There's been a reporters said to him, "There's been a reporters said to him, "There's been a ceasefire announced, but it appears that ceasefire announced, but it appears that ceasefire announced, but it appears that Iran is still attacking neighboring Iran is still attacking neighboring Iran is still attacking neighboring countries." Hegth's response to the countries." Hegth's response to the countries." Hegth's response to the reporter was, "Iran would be wise to reporter was, "Iran would be wise to reporter was, "Iran would be wise to find a way to get their carrier pigeon find a way to get their carrier pigeon find a way to get their carrier pigeon to the troops out in remote locations to to the troops out in remote locations to to the troops out in remote locations to let them know not to shoot any longer. let them know not to shoot any longer. let them know not to shoot any longer. It can sometimes take time for It can sometimes take time for It can sometimes take time for ceasefires to take hold, which was ceasefires to take hold, which was ceasefires to take hold, which was really alarming to me because it really alarming to me because it really alarming to me because it suggests that there is actually not a suggests that there is actually not a suggests that there is actually not a centralized leadership structure in centralized leadership structure in centralized leadership structure in Iran. And actually, if there's not a Iran. And actually, if there's not a Iran. And actually, if there's not a centralized leadership structure, how centralized leadership structure, how centralized leadership structure, how does one negotiate a ceasefire if does one negotiate a ceasefire if does one negotiate a ceasefire if there's lots of different factions doing there's lots of different factions doing there's lots of different factions doing lots of different things? Now, is that lots of different things? Now, is that lots of different things? Now, is that true? true? true? >> I would say it's probably decentralized. >> I would say it's probably decentralized. >> I would say it's probably decentralized. I think he's probably right about that. I think he's probably right about that. I think he's probably right about that. >> I'm trying to figure out who in Iran is >> I'm trying to figure out who in Iran is >> I'm trying to figure out who in Iran is negotiating with America and why it negotiating with America and why it negotiating with America and why it doesn't seem to be the case that whoever doesn't seem to be the case that whoever doesn't seem to be the case that whoever is negotiating control the fact that is negotiating control the fact that is negotiating control the fact that people are still firing. people are still firing. people are still firing. >> Oh, I see. I see. Yeah. decentralization >> Oh, I see. I see. Yeah. decentralization >> Oh, I see. I see. Yeah. decentralization means chaotic and they can't actually means chaotic and they can't actually means chaotic and they can't actually make decisions. That's just not the make decisions. That's just not the make decisions. That's just not the case. The more you move up the chain of case. The more you move up the chain of case. The more you move up the chain of command, the more the leader can give command, the more the leader can give command, the more the leader can give pre-delegated orders. If X happens, do pre-delegated orders. If X happens, do pre-delegated orders. If X happens, do do Y. Those can hold for hours and days. do Y. Those can hold for hours and days. do Y. Those can hold for hours and days. Uh and that's true in every Uh and that's true in every Uh and that's true in every organization. That's why leaders can go organization. That's why leaders can go organization. That's why leaders can go on vacation uh for a week and come back on vacation uh for a week and come back on vacation uh for a week and come back and they're worried of course when they and they're worried of course when they and they're worried of course when they come back. But the bottom line is that come back. But the bottom line is that come back. But the bottom line is that the leaders are setting the strategic the leaders are setting the strategic the leaders are setting the strategic direction. direction. direction. >> Who is the leader? >> Who is the leader? >> Who is the leader? >> Oh, it's definitely the supreme leader, >> Oh, it's definitely the supreme leader, >> Oh, it's definitely the supreme leader, the son of the one we just killed. Oh, the son of the one we just killed. Oh, the son of the one we just killed. Oh, without a doubt. I think this idea that without a doubt. I think this idea that without a doubt. I think this idea that that he's not there, there's absolutely that he's not there, there's absolutely that he's not there, there's absolutely no evidence of that. Yes, it's no evidence of that. Yes, it's no evidence of that. Yes, it's decentralized in the sense it's hard to decentralized in the sense it's hard to decentralized in the sense it's hard to find them, to target them. But by the find them, to target them. But by the find them, to target them. But by the way, Stephen, I think the reason that way, Stephen, I think the reason that way, Stephen, I think the reason that we're trying to talk smack about the we're trying to talk smack about the we're trying to talk smack about the Supreme Leader, is he is he alive? Is he Supreme Leader, is he is he alive? Is he Supreme Leader, is he is he alive? Is he dead? is we're trying to goat him into dead? is we're trying to goat him into dead? is we're trying to goat him into revealing his location so we can kill revealing his location so we can kill revealing his location so we can kill him. But that's not working. So, and him. But that's not working. So, and him. But that's not working. So, and it's also not stopping Iran from putting it's also not stopping Iran from putting it's also not stopping Iran from putting out 10 points to Pakistan uh in the out 10 points to Pakistan uh in the out 10 points to Pakistan uh in the negotiations. It's not stopping Iran negotiations. It's not stopping Iran negotiations. It's not stopping Iran from having messages that go through from having messages that go through from having messages that go through Pakistan to um the White House. Pakistan to um the White House. Pakistan to um the White House. President Trump is then agreeing to the President Trump is then agreeing to the President Trump is then agreeing to the 10 points that are coming from Iran, you 10 points that are coming from Iran, you 10 points that are coming from Iran, you see. And then um later on, of course, see. And then um later on, of course, see. And then um later on, of course, President Trump is taking it back. But President Trump is taking it back. But President Trump is taking it back. But the bottom line is um what you're seeing the bottom line is um what you're seeing the bottom line is um what you're seeing in terms of chaotic decisionmaking in terms of chaotic decisionmaking in terms of chaotic decisionmaking far more chaotic decision-m is happening far more chaotic decision-m is happening far more chaotic decision-m is happening in the White House in the United States in the White House in the United States in the White House in the United States than it's happening in the government of than it's happening in the government of than it's happening in the government of Iran. They're rising power in the region Iran. They're rising power in the region Iran. They're rising power in the region as our power is is declining as our power is is declining as our power is is declining precipitously. precipitously. precipitously. >> What do you think happens next? >> What do you think happens next? >> What do you think happens next? >> We are at a fork in the road. When I was >> We are at a fork in the road. When I was >> We are at a fork in the road. When I was here last time, uh, I was walking you here last time, uh, I was walking you here last time, uh, I was walking you through the three stages of the through the three stages of the through the three stages of the escalation trap and you kept pushing me, escalation trap and you kept pushing me, escalation trap and you kept pushing me, tell me more, tell me more. Notice I I tell me more, tell me more. Notice I I tell me more, tell me more. Notice I I was a little bit reluctant to do that. was a little bit reluctant to do that. was a little bit reluctant to do that. Well, there is a stage four. For anyone Well, there is a stage four. For anyone Well, there is a stage four. For anyone that didn't hear that episode, could you that didn't hear that episode, could you that didn't hear that episode, could you give us a one sentence on stage one? give us a one sentence on stage one? give us a one sentence on stage one? >> And yes, stage one is America bombs, >> And yes, stage one is America bombs, >> And yes, stage one is America bombs, does leadership change bombing. We hit does leadership change bombing. We hit does leadership change bombing. We hit targets, kill leaders, but the regime targets, kill leaders, but the regime targets, kill leaders, but the regime actually evolves and is stronger than actually evolves and is stronger than actually evolves and is stronger than before. Uh stage two is that then before. Uh stage two is that then before. Uh stage two is that then stronger regime lashes back with stronger regime lashes back with stronger regime lashes back with horizontal escalation and takes the horizontal escalation and takes the horizontal escalation and takes the straight of horos at least initially straight of horos at least initially straight of horos at least initially takes the straight of horos. And then takes the straight of horos. And then takes the straight of horos. And then stage three is that's the ground option stage three is that's the ground option stage three is that's the ground option to start to take the straight of Hormuz to start to take the straight of Hormuz to start to take the straight of Hormuz back. And that's exactly what you saw back. And that's exactly what you saw back. And that's exactly what you saw play out in the first several weeks of play out in the first several weeks of play out in the first several weeks of the war. Stage three was about the the war. Stage three was about the the war. Stage three was about the Marines. The Marines hadn't even moved Marines. The Marines hadn't even moved Marines. The Marines hadn't even moved yet. And I'm telling you, the Marines yet. And I'm telling you, the Marines yet. And I'm telling you, the Marines are likely going to move. There's going are likely going to move. There's going are likely going to move. There's going to be movement to ground options in to be movement to ground options in to be movement to ground options in stage three uh here very rapidly in this stage three uh here very rapidly in this stage three uh here very rapidly in this war. At that point in time when we had war. At that point in time when we had war. At that point in time when we had our first discussion, you wanted to push our first discussion, you wanted to push our first discussion, you wanted to push for the future. I said, "No, we we need for the future. I said, "No, we we need for the future. I said, "No, we we need to wait." And the reason, Stephen, is to wait." And the reason, Stephen, is to wait." And the reason, Stephen, is because what you're not seeing with me because what you're not seeing with me because what you're not seeing with me is throwing random darts at the future. is throwing random darts at the future. is throwing random darts at the future. I'm doing risk assessment out about as I'm doing risk assessment out about as I'm doing risk assessment out about as far as you uh you can have stable far as you uh you can have stable far as you uh you can have stable predictions. And in war, that usually predictions. And in war, that usually predictions. And in war, that usually means 2 3 4 weeks. It doesn't mean we means 2 3 4 weeks. It doesn't mean we means 2 3 4 weeks. It doesn't mean we can say where we'll be a year from now. can say where we'll be a year from now. can say where we'll be a year from now. Here though, now that we're in 40 days, Here though, now that we're in 40 days, Here though, now that we're in 40 days, we're at a different point. We've we're at a different point. We've we're at a different point. We've clearly passed stage one. We're past clearly passed stage one. We're past clearly passed stage one. We're past stage two where they uh control the stage two where they uh control the stage two where they uh control the straight of form moves. We've bellied up straight of form moves. We've bellied up straight of form moves. We've bellied up to stage three, the ground operations. to stage three, the ground operations. to stage three, the ground operations. Now we're at a branch, a fork in the Now we're at a branch, a fork in the Now we're at a branch, a fork in the road. There's no way to go back to road. There's no way to go back to road. There's no way to go back to February 27, which is the pre-war period February 27, which is the pre-war period February 27, which is the pre-war period that many people would love to go back that many people would love to go back that many people would love to go back to. I too would like to go back to to. I too would like to go back to to. I too would like to go back to February 27th. That's not the future. February 27th. That's not the future. February 27th. That's not the future. What happens at this point on in the What happens at this point on in the What happens at this point on in the modeling and the is a branch either we modeling and the is a branch either we modeling and the is a branch either we go through with the ground war or Iran go through with the ground war or Iran go through with the ground war or Iran becomes an emerging not right away becomes an emerging not right away becomes an emerging not right away fourth center of world power. That is fourth center of world power. That is fourth center of world power. That is the branch that we face now. This branch the branch that we face now. This branch the branch that we face now. This branch is becoming more evident hour by hour. is becoming more evident hour by hour. is becoming more evident hour by hour. >> Explain that to me. So everybody now >> Explain that to me. So everybody now >> Explain that to me. So everybody now knows that Iran is uh controlling the knows that Iran is uh controlling the knows that Iran is uh controlling the straight of form and controlling straight of form and controlling straight of form and controlling shipping. That's selective blockade. I'm shipping. That's selective blockade. I'm shipping. That's selective blockade. I'm taking it a step further. That's not taking it a step further. That's not taking it a step further. That's not just about insurance rates of shipping. just about insurance rates of shipping. just about insurance rates of shipping. That's generating political power for That's generating political power for That's generating political power for Iran to get other states to cowtow to it Iran to get other states to cowtow to it Iran to get other states to cowtow to it to accept its objectives. to accept its objectives. to accept its objectives. What are those objectives? So let's talk What are those objectives? So let's talk What are those objectives? So let's talk about how this affects say Asia. So I'm about how this affects say Asia. So I'm about how this affects say Asia. So I'm going to get into global and then we'll going to get into global and then we'll going to get into global and then we'll come back to the Gulf itself. So the come back to the Gulf itself. So the come back to the Gulf itself. So the shipping that goes through the straight shipping that goes through the straight shipping that goes through the straight of H for H for H for H for H for H for H of H for H for H for H for H for H for H of H for H for H for H for H for H for H for H for H for H for Hormuz 80 to 90% for H for H for H for Hormuz 80 to 90% for H for H for H for Hormuz 80 to 90% of it is going right to Asia. The power of it is going right to Asia. The power of it is going right to Asia. The power that comes with that is with say India. that comes with that is with say India. that comes with that is with say India. India is not siding with the United India is not siding with the United India is not siding with the United States. India is at best neutral and States. India is at best neutral and States. India is at best neutral and maybe even a little bit more uh uh maybe even a little bit more uh uh maybe even a little bit more uh uh edging toward Iran. Well, before this, edging toward Iran. Well, before this, edging toward Iran. Well, before this, you could imagine that the United States you could imagine that the United States you could imagine that the United States and India would be much more cooperative and India would be much more cooperative and India would be much more cooperative here. That's not what's occurring. And here. That's not what's occurring. And here. That's not what's occurring. And why is that? It's because that oil why is that? It's because that oil why is that? It's because that oil that's going into Asia for India, this that's going into Asia for India, this that's going into Asia for India, this isn't just about the price of oil. This isn't just about the price of oil. This isn't just about the price of oil. This is about the supply of oil. When you is about the supply of oil. When you is about the supply of oil. When you lose literally all the supply, that is a lose literally all the supply, that is a lose literally all the supply, that is a greater cost than simply having to pay greater cost than simply having to pay greater cost than simply having to pay more for it. So India is in a much more more for it. So India is in a much more more for it. So India is in a much more difficult situation than Europe and the difficult situation than Europe and the difficult situation than Europe and the United States right now. Now look at United States right now. Now look at United States right now. Now look at Japan. Notice in the Oval Office, Japan. Notice in the Oval Office, Japan. Notice in the Oval Office, President Trump brought in uh the leader President Trump brought in uh the leader President Trump brought in uh the leader of the head of state of Japan and of the head of state of Japan and of the head of state of Japan and basically browbeat her and she still basically browbeat her and she still basically browbeat her and she still wouldn't budge. She still would not wouldn't budge. She still would not wouldn't budge. She still would not cowtow to Trump here uh and actually cowtow to Trump here uh and actually cowtow to Trump here uh and actually provide military support. What did she provide military support. What did she provide military support. What did she do? She's distancing herself from the do? She's distancing herself from the do? She's distancing herself from the United States. That's exactly what Iran United States. That's exactly what Iran United States. That's exactly what Iran wants out of America's Asian allies. wants out of America's Asian allies. wants out of America's Asian allies. This is geopolitical power and it's This is geopolitical power and it's This is geopolitical power and it's rooted in the control of Hormos. It's rooted in the control of Hormos. It's rooted in the control of Hormos. It's rooted in the selective military rooted in the selective military rooted in the selective military blockade. That selective military blockade. That selective military blockade. That selective military blockade produces vulnerability to blockade produces vulnerability to blockade produces vulnerability to India, vulnerability to Japan. And that India, vulnerability to Japan. And that India, vulnerability to Japan. And that is what the we call it the leverage. But is what the we call it the leverage. But is what the we call it the leverage. But the leverage is is not enough of a I the leverage is is not enough of a I the leverage is is not enough of a I think a full description. This is think a full description. This is think a full description. This is reorienting America's allies in Asia. reorienting America's allies in Asia. reorienting America's allies in Asia. Now, let's talk about what's happening Now, let's talk about what's happening Now, let's talk about what's happening in the Persian Gulf itself. Before the in the Persian Gulf itself. Before the in the Persian Gulf itself. Before the war, February 27, there was essentially war, February 27, there was essentially war, February 27, there was essentially a balance in the Persian Gulf where you a balance in the Persian Gulf where you a balance in the Persian Gulf where you had Iran on one side and you had this had Iran on one side and you had this had Iran on one side and you had this growing collection of Gulf states that growing collection of Gulf states that growing collection of Gulf states that were part of an emerging web. They're were part of an emerging web. They're were part of an emerging web. They're cooperating with Israel more and more on cooperating with Israel more and more on cooperating with Israel more and more on different um on different issues. different um on different issues. different um on different issues. President Trump is bringing in his AI President Trump is bringing in his AI President Trump is bringing in his AI billionaires to sort of grease this billionaires to sort of grease this billionaires to sort of grease this cooperation so that there's some cooperation so that there's some cooperation so that there's some material benefits. Well, that was material benefits. Well, that was material benefits. Well, that was effectively a counterbalancing effectively a counterbalancing effectively a counterbalancing coalition to Iran. Now, what's happened coalition to Iran. Now, what's happened coalition to Iran. Now, what's happened after 40 days is this is breaking down after 40 days is this is breaking down after 40 days is this is breaking down fast. America has military bases in fast. America has military bases in fast. America has military bases in Qatar, has military bases in uh Qatar, has military bases in uh Qatar, has military bases in uh Baharrain, has military bases in Kuwait. Baharrain, has military bases in Kuwait. Baharrain, has military bases in Kuwait. I'm just picking a few. Had military I'm just picking a few. Had military I'm just picking a few. Had military base of course in in Saudi Arabia. These base of course in in Saudi Arabia. These base of course in in Saudi Arabia. These military bases, they are producing military bases, they are producing military bases, they are producing little leverage here against Iran. In little leverage here against Iran. In little leverage here against Iran. In fact, our aircraft carriers are not fact, our aircraft carriers are not fact, our aircraft carriers are not anywhere near the Persian Gulf. They're anywhere near the Persian Gulf. They're anywhere near the Persian Gulf. They're a thousand miles away. These bases are a thousand miles away. These bases are a thousand miles away. These bases are big fat targets. big fat targets. big fat targets. They are above ground. Iran's precision They are above ground. Iran's precision They are above ground. Iran's precision drones can hit things above ground and drones can hit things above ground and drones can hit things above ground and they're doing it on those bases. That they're doing it on those bases. That they're doing it on those bases. That was their immediate retaliation. What is was their immediate retaliation. What is was their immediate retaliation. What is what's happening number one is the what's happening number one is the what's happening number one is the anchor the military anchor of this anchor the military anchor of this anchor the military anchor of this coalition started to disappear within coalition started to disappear within coalition started to disappear within hours of the bombing on February 28th. hours of the bombing on February 28th. hours of the bombing on February 28th. >> What do you mean by the military anchor? >> What do you mean by the military anchor? >> What do you mean by the military anchor? In order to have this coalition work, In order to have this coalition work, In order to have this coalition work, >> which is like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, >> which is like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, >> which is like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, >> Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, >> Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, >> Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, somebody has to be the LA the the somebody has to be the LA the the somebody has to be the LA the the guaranter of protection. It's like the guaranter of protection. It's like the guaranter of protection. It's like the Ma boss who protects everybody else. Ma boss who protects everybody else. Ma boss who protects everybody else. That is the United States. And that is That is the United States. And that is That is the United States. And that is what our military bases were supposed to what our military bases were supposed to what our military bases were supposed to do. They become the military anchor that do. They become the military anchor that do. They become the military anchor that allows then for there to become allows then for there to become allows then for there to become political counterbalancing against Iran. political counterbalancing against Iran. political counterbalancing against Iran. That was the Kushner idea in the first That was the Kushner idea in the first That was the Kushner idea in the first Trump administration. And it seemed to Trump administration. And it seemed to Trump administration. And it seemed to work and it seemed to uh bring some of work and it seemed to uh bring some of work and it seemed to uh bring some of these states together who wouldn't these states together who wouldn't these states together who wouldn't necessarily think you would cooperate necessarily think you would cooperate necessarily think you would cooperate with with Israel. Well, this is now this with with Israel. Well, this is now this with with Israel. Well, this is now this war is torpedoing this whole idea. war is torpedoing this whole idea. war is torpedoing this whole idea. President Trump is not even willing to President Trump is not even willing to President Trump is not even willing to do much to actually defend our own do much to actually defend our own do much to actually defend our own bases, much less Saudi Arabia, much less bases, much less Saudi Arabia, much less bases, much less Saudi Arabia, much less UAE. What he's telling them is you go UAE. What he's telling them is you go UAE. What he's telling them is you go out there and start defending yourself. out there and start defending yourself. out there and start defending yourself. Well, that's not a guaranter of Well, that's not a guaranter of Well, that's not a guaranter of security. The next thing that's security. The next thing that's security. The next thing that's happening is the three these states happening is the three these states happening is the three these states which were operating more in concert are which were operating more in concert are which were operating more in concert are starting to break down and operate in starting to break down and operate in starting to break down and operate in three pools. You have Iraq which is now three pools. You have Iraq which is now three pools. You have Iraq which is now complaining more and more about milit US complaining more and more about milit US complaining more and more about milit US military presence there. They're military presence there. They're military presence there. They're distancing themselves from American distancing themselves from American distancing themselves from American military presence. And remember we military presence. And remember we military presence. And remember we installed that government in 2003. So installed that government in 2003. So installed that government in 2003. So they're not siding with us. They're they're not siding with us. They're they're not siding with us. They're distancing themselves uh from us. Then distancing themselves uh from us. Then distancing themselves uh from us. Then you have Qatar and you have uh Oman. Uh you have Qatar and you have uh Oman. Uh you have Qatar and you have uh Oman. Uh what Iran's doing is saying, you know, what Iran's doing is saying, you know, what Iran's doing is saying, you know, we should share some of these uh t these we should share some of these uh t these we should share some of these uh t these tolls with Oman. They're moving Oman tolls with Oman. They're moving Oman tolls with Oman. They're moving Oman into their camp. So you have Iraq moving into their camp. So you have Iraq moving into their camp. So you have Iraq moving closer to Iran. Oman moving closer. closer to Iran. Oman moving closer. closer to Iran. Oman moving closer. Qatar is trying to keep its head down as Qatar is trying to keep its head down as Qatar is trying to keep its head down as much as possible. They're not they're much as possible. They're not they're much as possible. They're not they're not trying to get their nose in this not trying to get their nose in this not trying to get their nose in this anymore. And who is what's the third anymore. And who is what's the third anymore. And who is what's the third pool? The third pool is Saudi Arabia, uh pool? The third pool is Saudi Arabia, uh pool? The third pool is Saudi Arabia, uh the UAE. These are the states that are the UAE. These are the states that are the UAE. These are the states that are most under threat. And what has Saudi most under threat. And what has Saudi most under threat. And what has Saudi Arabia done just in the last week? Arabia done just in the last week? Arabia done just in the last week? They've gone to cooperate more with They've gone to cooperate more with They've gone to cooperate more with Pakistan. They have a security deal with Pakistan. They have a security deal with Pakistan. They have a security deal with Pakistan. What does that mean? They're Pakistan. What does that mean? They're Pakistan. What does that mean? They're looking to Pakistan as much or maybe looking to Pakistan as much or maybe looking to Pakistan as much or maybe even more than the United States as even more than the United States as even more than the United States as their guaranter of security. So all of their guaranter of security. So all of their guaranter of security. So all of this coalition, it's not all siding with this coalition, it's not all siding with this coalition, it's not all siding with Iran right now. It's fragmenting. And Iran right now. It's fragmenting. And Iran right now. It's fragmenting. And that's weakening America. that's weakening America. that's weakening America. >> So what happens next? >> So what happens next? >> So what happens next? >> You know, as President Trump wants to >> You know, as President Trump wants to >> You know, as President Trump wants to do, call the war off. That's not going do, call the war off. That's not going do, call the war off. That's not going to put us back to February 27. Iran has to put us back to February 27. Iran has to put us back to February 27. Iran has 20% of the world's oil. It's going to be 20% of the world's oil. It's going to be 20% of the world's oil. It's going to be able to have uh 75 billion hundred able to have uh 75 billion hundred able to have uh 75 billion hundred billion of of revenues here over the billion of of revenues here over the billion of of revenues here over the next year. And also those deeply buried next year. And also those deeply buried next year. And also those deeply buried caves and tunnels where they have their caves and tunnels where they have their caves and tunnels where they have their drones uh that can be used to fashion drones uh that can be used to fashion drones uh that can be used to fashion nuclear weapons. within a year Iran nuclear weapons. within a year Iran nuclear weapons. within a year Iran could have nuclear weapons and we can't could have nuclear weapons and we can't could have nuclear weapons and we can't stop it. So if we pull back you can stop it. So if we pull back you can stop it. So if we pull back you can start to see that Iran's power is going start to see that Iran's power is going start to see that Iran's power is going to grow internally. Uh but then even to grow internally. Uh but then even to grow internally. Uh but then even more than that its relationships with more than that its relationships with more than that its relationships with Russia, its relationships with China Russia, its relationships with China Russia, its relationships with China will start to move closer together will start to move closer together will start to move closer together against America. against America. against America. And you see this happening from the And you see this happening from the And you see this happening from the moment almost the first several days of moment almost the first several days of moment almost the first several days of the war. Russia almost immediately the war. Russia almost immediately the war. Russia almost immediately offered Iran military targeting offered Iran military targeting offered Iran military targeting information to target US ships. That's information to target US ships. That's information to target US ships. That's why our our carriers are so far away. why our our carriers are so far away. why our our carriers are so far away. It's because Russia has the ability to It's because Russia has the ability to It's because Russia has the ability to see those carriers, tell Iran where they see those carriers, tell Iran where they see those carriers, tell Iran where they are, and if those carriers get too are, and if those carriers get too are, and if those carriers get too close, man, they're going to be smashed. close, man, they're going to be smashed. close, man, they're going to be smashed. But it can get worse than that, Stephen, But it can get worse than that, Stephen, But it can get worse than that, Stephen, because as this power grows over time, because as this power grows over time, because as this power grows over time, as these incentives for uh China, as these incentives for uh China, as these incentives for uh China, Russia, and Iran to cooperate against Russia, and Iran to cooperate against Russia, and Iran to cooperate against America grow over time, Iran has control America grow over time, Iran has control America grow over time, Iran has control now of 20% of the world's oil. Russia now of 20% of the world's oil. Russia now of 20% of the world's oil. Russia has 11% of the world's oil. That means has 11% of the world's oil. That means has 11% of the world's oil. That means there can be either formal or tacic there can be either formal or tacic there can be either formal or tacic cooperation to take 30% of the world's cooperation to take 30% of the world's cooperation to take 30% of the world's oil off the global market. Let China oil off the global market. Let China oil off the global market. Let China soak up a whole lot of that. And that soak up a whole lot of that. And that soak up a whole lot of that. And that can truly produce mega economic can truly produce mega economic can truly produce mega economic consequences for America, for Europe. consequences for America, for Europe. consequences for America, for Europe. And why are they not going to do that? And why are they not going to do that? And why are they not going to do that? Because they're nice guys. Is that Because they're nice guys. Is that Because they're nice guys. Is that really what we're counting on now? really what we're counting on now? really what we're counting on now? Russia, Putin is not going to want to Russia, Putin is not going to want to Russia, Putin is not going to want to wreck America's economy because he has a wreck America's economy because he has a wreck America's economy because he has a a a bond with Donald Trump. What do you a a bond with Donald Trump. What do you a a bond with Donald Trump. What do you think the fundamental think the fundamental think the fundamental flawed assumption was at the start of flawed assumption was at the start of flawed assumption was at the start of all of this from the United States? all of this from the United States? all of this from the United States? >> That Iran was was was weak on its last >> That Iran was was was weak on its last >> That Iran was was was weak on its last legs and all we had to do was uh push it legs and all we had to do was uh push it legs and all we had to do was uh push it over the edge of a cliff and it was just over the edge of a cliff and it was just over the edge of a cliff and it was just a matter of just one more push a matter of just one more push a matter of just one more push >> and then the people would rise up and >> and then the people would rise up and >> and then the people would rise up and >> yeah, we have painted a picture of Iran >> yeah, we have painted a picture of Iran >> yeah, we have painted a picture of Iran um as beaten down as the reason it's not um as beaten down as the reason it's not um as beaten down as the reason it's not retaliating very much is they have no retaliating very much is they have no retaliating very much is they have no capability to retaliate. And I tell you capability to retaliate. And I tell you capability to retaliate. And I tell you tell you this um Stephen, so I' I've tell you this um Stephen, so I' I've tell you this um Stephen, so I' I've been in big debates here at uh the been in big debates here at uh the been in big debates here at uh the Council on Foreign Relations in New York Council on Foreign Relations in New York Council on Foreign Relations in New York where I've literally been the only where I've literally been the only where I've literally been the only person on the stage to stand up and warn person on the stage to stand up and warn person on the stage to stand up and warn that this picture of Iran is is is way that this picture of Iran is is is way that this picture of Iran is is is way too negative. There was a a widpread, I too negative. There was a a widpread, I too negative. There was a a widpread, I think, false assumption across the think, false assumption across the think, false assumption across the foreign policy community. no one willing foreign policy community. no one willing foreign policy community. no one willing to really stand up and challenge it very to really stand up and challenge it very to really stand up and challenge it very strongly that Iran was basically strongly that Iran was basically strongly that Iran was basically collapsing on its own. This was always collapsing on its own. This was always collapsing on its own. This was always in my view underestimating the power of in my view underestimating the power of in my view underestimating the power of Iran. And you say, well, where does my Iran. And you say, well, where does my Iran. And you say, well, where does my view come from? It came from the view come from? It came from the view come from? It came from the modeling of the bombing. What would modeling of the bombing. What would modeling of the bombing. What would happen as this went forward? And none of happen as this went forward? And none of happen as this went forward? And none of these elements of Iran's power were ever these elements of Iran's power were ever these elements of Iran's power were ever knocked out. When I look through the knocked out. When I look through the knocked out. When I look through the response to the last conversation, the response to the last conversation, the response to the last conversation, the the audience had lots of different types the audience had lots of different types the audience had lots of different types of questions. So, I'm going to try and of questions. So, I'm going to try and of questions. So, I'm going to try and represent some of the audience's represent some of the audience's represent some of the audience's questions to try and bring them into the questions to try and bring them into the questions to try and bring them into the conversation. One of them was about conversation. One of them was about conversation. One of them was about Israel's role in this. And I thought it Israel's role in this. And I thought it Israel's role in this. And I thought it might actually link to what you just might actually link to what you just might actually link to what you just said about where we get our intelligence said about where we get our intelligence said about where we get our intelligence from that informs the decisions we make from that informs the decisions we make from that informs the decisions we make because there are some people that are because there are some people that are because there are some people that are skeptical that the intelligence is skeptical that the intelligence is skeptical that the intelligence is coming from Israel and that therefore coming from Israel and that therefore coming from Israel and that therefore that it might not be as accurate as if that it might not be as accurate as if that it might not be as accurate as if it was coming from our own sources. I it was coming from our own sources. I it was coming from our own sources. I would say Israel has been playing the would say Israel has been playing the would say Israel has been playing the role of diplomatic spoiler. So in the role of diplomatic spoiler. So in the role of diplomatic spoiler. So in the 12-day war when last June when the US 12-day war when last June when the US 12-day war when last June when the US bomb fore we've been focusing on that bomb fore we've been focusing on that bomb fore we've been focusing on that that happened in the middle of the that happened in the middle of the that happened in the middle of the 12-day war. Donald Trump said he was 12-day war. Donald Trump said he was 12-day war. Donald Trump said he was going to negotiate with a certain set of going to negotiate with a certain set of going to negotiate with a certain set of Iranians and literally the next day uh Iranians and literally the next day uh Iranians and literally the next day uh 36 hours later Israeli air power killed 36 hours later Israeli air power killed 36 hours later Israeli air power killed them them them killed the negotiators. we were set to killed the negotiators. we were set to killed the negotiators. we were set to negotiate with. This was totally negotiate with. This was totally negotiate with. This was totally spoiling the idea of a diplomatic spoiling the idea of a diplomatic spoiling the idea of a diplomatic outcome because they were dead. So, you outcome because they were dead. So, you outcome because they were dead. So, you couldn't have a negotiated outcome. Now couldn't have a negotiated outcome. Now couldn't have a negotiated outcome. Now if we come to February 28, who dropped if we come to February 28, who dropped if we come to February 28, who dropped the first bombs that killed the supreme the first bombs that killed the supreme the first bombs that killed the supreme leader that uh killed those other leader that uh killed those other leader that uh killed those other several dozen doves that he was meeting several dozen doves that he was meeting several dozen doves that he was meeting with? with? with? >> Donald Trump um as as many of our >> Donald Trump um as as many of our >> Donald Trump um as as many of our governments have um describes that you governments have um describes that you governments have um describes that you had a balance of hawks and doves inside had a balance of hawks and doves inside had a balance of hawks and doves inside of the Iranian government. And uh the of the Iranian government. And uh the of the Iranian government. And uh the idea here is with leadership idea here is with leadership idea here is with leadership decapitation is well if you kill uh the decapitation is well if you kill uh the decapitation is well if you kill uh the hawks then the doves will just be the hawks then the doves will just be the hawks then the doves will just be the ones left. We did the opposite or more ones left. We did the opposite or more ones left. We did the opposite or more correctly the bombing was started by correctly the bombing was started by correctly the bombing was started by Israel on February 28. we came in Israel on February 28. we came in Israel on February 28. we came in behind. And in fact, Secretary Rubio, behind. And in fact, Secretary Rubio, behind. And in fact, Secretary Rubio, our Secretary of State, explained a few our Secretary of State, explained a few our Secretary of State, explained a few days later that um uh Israel basically days later that um uh Israel basically days later that um uh Israel basically backed us in a corner because Israel backed us in a corner because Israel backed us in a corner because Israel said, "We're going to kill that Supreme said, "We're going to kill that Supreme said, "We're going to kill that Supreme Leader whether you like it or not, and Leader whether you like it or not, and Leader whether you like it or not, and that is going to maybe lead to attacks that is going to maybe lead to attacks that is going to maybe lead to attacks on your military bases, so you better on your military bases, so you better on your military bases, so you better prepare an air campaign to come behind." prepare an air campaign to come behind." prepare an air campaign to come behind." and Rubio said that's what happened and Rubio said that's what happened and Rubio said that's what happened because again just before the 20 because again just before the 20 because again just before the 20 February 28 bombing we're negotiating February 28 bombing we're negotiating February 28 bombing we're negotiating with Iran and we're killing the very with Iran and we're killing the very with Iran and we're killing the very people that Trump was saying are the people that Trump was saying are the people that Trump was saying are the ones we wanted to negotiate with the ones we wanted to negotiate with the ones we wanted to negotiate with the ones who were going to help move Iran ones who were going to help move Iran ones who were going to help move Iran closer to the American position that was closer to the American position that was closer to the American position that was Israel as spoiler Israel as spoiler Israel as spoiler >> so there's this individual called Ali >> so there's this individual called Ali >> so there's this individual called Ali Laurajani the former secretary of Iran's Laurajani the former secretary of Iran's Laurajani the former secretary of Iran's supreme national security council and he supreme national security council and he supreme national security council and he was killed killed in an Israeli le air was killed killed in an Israeli le air was killed killed in an Israeli le air strike on March 17th, 2026. Trump strike on March 17th, 2026. Trump strike on March 17th, 2026. Trump claimed on True Social that I can't say claimed on True Social that I can't say claimed on True Social that I can't say his name, but I'm going to try. his name, but I'm going to try. his name, but I'm going to try. >> Ljani >> Ljani >> Ljani >> was the primary contact for a 10-point >> was the primary contact for a 10-point >> was the primary contact for a 10-point peace proposal that Trump had called peace proposal that Trump had called peace proposal that Trump had called workable and a basis for a real workable and a basis for a real workable and a basis for a real agreement. Trump suggested that the agreement. Trump suggested that the agreement. Trump suggested that the strike was poorly timed when Israel strike was poorly timed when Israel strike was poorly timed when Israel killed him and complained that Israel's killed him and complained that Israel's killed him and complained that Israel's lone wolf actions were complicating his lone wolf actions were complicating his lone wolf actions were complicating his ability to wrap up the war on his own ability to wrap up the war on his own ability to wrap up the war on his own terms. He famously posted that he was terms. He famously posted that he was terms. He famously posted that he was inches away from the biggest deal in inches away from the biggest deal in inches away from the biggest deal in history before the assassination reset history before the assassination reset history before the assassination reset the clock. the clock. the clock. >> So this would be the third instance then >> So this would be the third instance then >> So this would be the third instance then of Israel as diplomatic spoiler. What of Israel as diplomatic spoiler. What of Israel as diplomatic spoiler. What you're hearing from Trump's own mouth is you're hearing from Trump's own mouth is you're hearing from Trump's own mouth is he thought he uh was close to a working he thought he uh was close to a working he thought he uh was close to a working relationship maybe not a full deal with relationship maybe not a full deal with relationship maybe not a full deal with a certain set of individuals in this a certain set of individuals in this a certain set of individuals in this case Ojani. And what did Israel do when case Ojani. And what did Israel do when case Ojani. And what did Israel do when they found out about it? They killed they found out about it? They killed they found out about it? They killed that person. And yes, I I understand that person. And yes, I I understand that person. And yes, I I understand there's issues of intelligence, but you there's issues of intelligence, but you there's issues of intelligence, but you know, most of us don't have a clearance, know, most of us don't have a clearance, know, most of us don't have a clearance, so we can't talk about that. So, let's so we can't talk about that. So, let's so we can't talk about that. So, let's talk about the actual public description talk about the actual public description talk about the actual public description that we've heard from. Prime Minister that we've heard from. Prime Minister that we've heard from. Prime Minister Netanyahu over the last several years. Netanyahu over the last several years. Netanyahu over the last several years. The public description is that Iran is The public description is that Iran is The public description is that Iran is simply a paper tiger. That that um simply a paper tiger. That that um simply a paper tiger. That that um Israel has been dominating Iran, Israel has been dominating Iran, Israel has been dominating Iran, knocking out its air defenses, launching knocking out its air defenses, launching knocking out its air defenses, launching other attacks here in 2024. other attacks here in 2024. other attacks here in 2024. The rhetoric that's coming publicly has The rhetoric that's coming publicly has The rhetoric that's coming publicly has been painting the picture of Iran as a been painting the picture of Iran as a been painting the picture of Iran as a weak and and not just weaken but weak and and not just weaken but weak and and not just weaken but basically It's down on its last basically It's down on its last basically It's down on its last legs and all you need is a final legs and all you need is a final legs and all you need is a final coupigra. That has been Prime Minister coupigra. That has been Prime Minister coupigra. That has been Prime Minister Netanyahu's language. Netanyahu's language. Netanyahu's language. >> The other thing that the audience wanted >> The other thing that the audience wanted >> The other thing that the audience wanted to know is they wanted more specifics on to know is they wanted more specifics on to know is they wanted more specifics on stage three. stage three. stage three. >> Yes. Yes. >> Yes. Yes. >> Yes. Yes. >> And is stage three happening? We talked >> And is stage three happening? We talked >> And is stage three happening? We talked last time about ground troops. It's very last time about ground troops. It's very last time about ground troops. It's very important and I I've been saying this on important and I I've been saying this on important and I I've been saying this on the Substack and my and my ex to follow the Substack and my and my ex to follow the Substack and my and my ex to follow the key indicators here of deployment, the key indicators here of deployment, the key indicators here of deployment, not follow just what's occurring with not follow just what's occurring with not follow just what's occurring with the rhetoric of our leaders. Um, and the the rhetoric of our leaders. Um, and the the rhetoric of our leaders. Um, and the key thing to to know is that if you're key thing to to know is that if you're key thing to to know is that if you're going to um weaken Iran with ground going to um weaken Iran with ground going to um weaken Iran with ground power, there's only a few ways you can power, there's only a few ways you can power, there's only a few ways you can get that ground power into Iran. You get that ground power into Iran. You get that ground power into Iran. You could try to come through Pakistan, but could try to come through Pakistan, but could try to come through Pakistan, but Pakistan actually is Iran's ally who Pakistan actually is Iran's ally who Pakistan actually is Iran's ally who gave Iran the 600 centerfuges in 2002 to gave Iran the 600 centerfuges in 2002 to gave Iran the 600 centerfuges in 2002 to start developing its enrichment program. start developing its enrichment program. start developing its enrichment program. So, and Pakistan has 100 nuclear weapons So, and Pakistan has 100 nuclear weapons So, and Pakistan has 100 nuclear weapons or so. So, I don't think we're doing or so. So, I don't think we're doing or so. So, I don't think we're doing this uh here. You could try to do it this uh here. You could try to do it this uh here. You could try to do it with Afghanistan, but notice you'd have with Afghanistan, but notice you'd have with Afghanistan, but notice you'd have to get all the troops in Afghanistan. to get all the troops in Afghanistan. to get all the troops in Afghanistan. That's not working. You could also go to That's not working. You could also go to That's not working. You could also go to Azerbaijan. That's up there. Notice on Azerbaijan. That's up there. Notice on Azerbaijan. That's up there. Notice on the first day of the war there was a the first day of the war there was a the first day of the war there was a missile that hit Azerbaijan and people missile that hit Azerbaijan and people missile that hit Azerbaijan and people on CNN there weren't what what's going on CNN there weren't what what's going on CNN there weren't what what's going on here. It's just a random in fact I on here. It's just a random in fact I on here. It's just a random in fact I think uh our our our public statement on think uh our our our public statement on think uh our our our public statement on that day was this shows how how that day was this shows how how that day was this shows how how incoherent uh the Iran leadership is. incoherent uh the Iran leadership is. incoherent uh the Iran leadership is. That's not what I saw. What I saw is That's not what I saw. What I saw is That's not what I saw. What I saw is they understood that Azeraijan was they understood that Azeraijan was they understood that Azeraijan was always thought to be a staging area to always thought to be a staging area to always thought to be a staging area to go to Thran. And so if you're going to go to Thran. And so if you're going to go to Thran. And so if you're going to take Thrron with a division or two, you take Thrron with a division or two, you take Thrron with a division or two, you would really want to have your forces would really want to have your forces would really want to have your forces start here from Azerbaijan. Now, so far start here from Azerbaijan. Now, so far start here from Azerbaijan. Now, so far though, that's not happening. Azarbaian though, that's not happening. Azarbaian though, that's not happening. Azarbaian said, "Nope, don't count on us. We're said, "Nope, don't count on us. We're said, "Nope, don't count on us. We're not getting in the middle of this." Now, not getting in the middle of this." Now, not getting in the middle of this." Now, we're back to why would you start to we're back to why would you start to we're back to why would you start to think about Marines uh to take territory think about Marines uh to take territory think about Marines uh to take territory here on the coasts of Iran? So inside here on the coasts of Iran? So inside here on the coasts of Iran? So inside Iran where the straight of Hermuz is Iran where the straight of Hermuz is Iran where the straight of Hermuz is >> that's the that's the beginning of it. >> that's the that's the beginning of it. >> that's the that's the beginning of it. You would start there around inside Iran You would start there around inside Iran You would start there around inside Iran around the straight of Hormuz as a beach around the straight of Hormuz as a beach around the straight of Hormuz as a beach head. head. head. >> There's some photos which I'll throw up >> There's some photos which I'll throw up >> There's some photos which I'll throw up on the screen showing what the terrain on the screen showing what the terrain on the screen showing what the terrain around the straight of Hormuz looks like around the straight of Hormuz looks like around the straight of Hormuz looks like and it's it is quite shocking. and it's it is quite shocking. and it's it is quite shocking. >> It's it's a moonscape and what you can >> It's it's a moonscape and what you can >> It's it's a moonscape and what you can see is that this is the most difficult see is that this is the most difficult see is that this is the most difficult terrain for amphibious operations to terrain for amphibious operations to terrain for amphibious operations to operate in. operate in. operate in. >> What is amphibious operations? uh where >> What is amphibious operations? uh where >> What is amphibious operations? uh where you have troops that are on ships on you have troops that are on ships on you have troops that are on ships on landing vessels. Uh just like Saving landing vessels. Uh just like Saving landing vessels. Uh just like Saving Private Ryan, they go from the water Private Ryan, they go from the water Private Ryan, they go from the water onto the beach. You would also then have onto the beach. You would also then have onto the beach. You would also then have um some air power with some Osprey, but um some air power with some Osprey, but um some air power with some Osprey, but they're doing essentially the same they're doing essentially the same they're doing essentially the same thing. They're coming onto the same thing. They're coming onto the same thing. They're coming onto the same beach. beach. beach. >> What's an Osprey? >> What's an Osprey? >> What's an Osprey? >> Uh an Osprey is a specialmade plane that >> Uh an Osprey is a specialmade plane that >> Uh an Osprey is a specialmade plane that we've made for the Marines. And it's a we've made for the Marines. And it's a we've made for the Marines. And it's a plane that is a hybrid between a plane that is a hybrid between a plane that is a hybrid between a helicopter and a jet. And so the helicopter and a jet. And so the helicopter and a jet. And so the propellers on the plane are able to propellers on the plane are able to propellers on the plane are able to rotate. So they can fly as a propeller rotate. So they can fly as a propeller rotate. So they can fly as a propeller plane um here or a uh a cheapman's jet plane um here or a uh a cheapman's jet plane um here or a uh a cheapman's jet or they can actually um like a or they can actually um like a or they can actually um like a helicopter. And that's really great if helicopter. And that's really great if helicopter. And that's really great if you want to fly fast to a beach and then you want to fly fast to a beach and then you want to fly fast to a beach and then go straight down. go straight down. go straight down. >> So are you saying that you think they >> So are you saying that you think they >> So are you saying that you think they will put boots on the ground in the will put boots on the ground in the will put boots on the ground in the straight of Hammoose? straight of Hammoose? straight of Hammoose? >> Let me just fill out this a little bit >> Let me just fill out this a little bit >> Let me just fill out this a little bit more. Okay. So the other big thing that more. Okay. So the other big thing that more. Okay. So the other big thing that that the folks need to know is where is that the folks need to know is where is that the folks need to know is where is the oil? Iran's oil and here I'm drawing the oil? Iran's oil and here I'm drawing the oil? Iran's oil and here I'm drawing a circle here. Iran's oil is all in this a circle here. Iran's oil is all in this a circle here. Iran's oil is all in this uh southwestern part almost all of it is uh southwestern part almost all of it is uh southwestern part almost all of it is in the southwestern part of um of Iran. in the southwestern part of um of Iran. in the southwestern part of um of Iran. Kuwait's oil is all right here. Iraq has Kuwait's oil is all right here. Iraq has Kuwait's oil is all right here. Iraq has couple puddles of oil. It has a big couple puddles of oil. It has a big couple puddles of oil. It has a big puddle of oil right here. Saudis oil is puddle of oil right here. Saudis oil is puddle of oil right here. Saudis oil is all right here. You might uh try to land all right here. You might uh try to land all right here. You might uh try to land forces of division here in Iraq, in forces of division here in Iraq, in forces of division here in Iraq, in Kuwait, uh in Saudi Arabia and come Kuwait, uh in Saudi Arabia and come Kuwait, uh in Saudi Arabia and come around this way. This is why knocking around this way. This is why knocking around this way. This is why knocking out these bases as truly platforms here. out these bases as truly platforms here. out these bases as truly platforms here. This was why they I think they start on This was why they I think they start on This was why they I think they start on day one. This wasn't just to hit the day one. This wasn't just to hit the day one. This wasn't just to hit the bases in retaliation. They are weakening bases in retaliation. They are weakening bases in retaliation. They are weakening our ability. They're taking away our ability. They're taking away our ability. They're taking away different axes of attack. And this is different axes of attack. And this is different axes of attack. And this is why in the uh Substack I published three why in the uh Substack I published three why in the uh Substack I published three days before the war, I'm specifically days before the war, I'm specifically days before the war, I'm specifically talking about Marines moving in limited talking about Marines moving in limited talking about Marines moving in limited areas to take coastal regions as beach areas to take coastal regions as beach areas to take coastal regions as beach heads. heads. heads. >> What's a beach head? >> What's a beach head? >> What's a beach head? >> A beach head is where you have a a >> A beach head is where you have a a >> A beach head is where you have a a foothold, a tow hold, where you're going foothold, a tow hold, where you're going foothold, a tow hold, where you're going to funnel in more forces after that. And to funnel in more forces after that. And to funnel in more forces after that. And you are going to very likely want to you are going to very likely want to you are going to very likely want to control an area that's at least about control an area that's at least about control an area that's at least about 100 miles by 20 m in order to get behind 100 miles by 20 m in order to get behind 100 miles by 20 m in order to get behind all this uh this this mountainous all this uh this this mountainous all this uh this this mountainous terrain. And what does that look like? terrain. And what does that look like? terrain. And what does that look like? The oil fields. Stephen, this is what The oil fields. Stephen, this is what The oil fields. Stephen, this is what President Trump is almost surely talking President Trump is almost surely talking President Trump is almost surely talking about when he says he's going to take about when he says he's going to take about when he says he's going to take Iran's oil fields. What he is probably Iran's oil fields. What he is probably Iran's oil fields. What he is probably um being given options for is how you um being given options for is how you um being given options for is how you could start in a limited way with an could start in a limited way with an could start in a limited way with an amphibious, submarine, a limited assault amphibious, submarine, a limited assault amphibious, submarine, a limited assault to take a a small set of stretch of to take a a small set of stretch of to take a a small set of stretch of beaches and then you would want to beaches and then you would want to beaches and then you would want to follow and take if you're going to start follow and take if you're going to start follow and take if you're going to start this at all, you're almost surely going this at all, you're almost surely going this at all, you're almost surely going to want to just start to take the oil to want to just start to take the oil to want to just start to take the oil fields. And President Trump's been fields. And President Trump's been fields. And President Trump's been talking that way for years really. He talking that way for years really. He talking that way for years really. He also said in a recent interview that if also said in a recent interview that if also said in a recent interview that if it was up to him, he would go and take it was up to him, he would go and take it was up to him, he would go and take the oil. But he said the American people the oil. But he said the American people the oil. But he said the American people weren't like that. And he said it once weren't like that. And he said it once weren't like that. And he said it once and then he said it again and then he and then he said it again and then he and then he said it again and then he said it again. This was during a press said it again. This was during a press said it again. This was during a press conference on Monday, April 6th. He conference on Monday, April 6th. He conference on Monday, April 6th. He said, "If it were up to me, I would take said, "If it were up to me, I would take said, "If it were up to me, I would take the oil. I would keep it all for the oil. I would keep it all for the oil. I would keep it all for ourselves and make a lot of money ourselves and make a lot of money ourselves and make a lot of money because to the victor belong the spoils. because to the victor belong the spoils. because to the victor belong the spoils. But people in the country sort of say But people in the country sort of say But people in the country sort of say just win and come home." And I'm okay just win and come home." And I'm okay just win and come home." And I'm okay with that too. And he said that from the with that too. And he said that from the with that too. And he said that from the interview that I was watching twice, interview that I was watching twice, interview that I was watching twice, which made me think that he really wants which made me think that he really wants which made me think that he really wants to go take the oil. But if he does put to go take the oil. But if he does put to go take the oil. But if he does put troops on the ground in Iran, troops on the ground in Iran, troops on the ground in Iran, >> it just creates a clearer target for >> it just creates a clearer target for >> it just creates a clearer target for those drone strikes. It creates a those drone strikes. It creates a those drone strikes. It creates a clearer target for those drone strikes. clearer target for those drone strikes. clearer target for those drone strikes. But what people maybe are not fully But what people maybe are not fully But what people maybe are not fully understanding is the political understanding is the political understanding is the political consequences of the deaths of those consequences of the deaths of those consequences of the deaths of those Marines. Yeah, Marines. Yeah, Marines. Yeah, >> most people are assuming if those >> most people are assuming if those >> most people are assuming if those Marines go in and die, this will make Marines go in and die, this will make Marines go in and die, this will make America run away. It'll be like a punch America run away. It'll be like a punch America run away. It'll be like a punch in the face and we'll run away. That's in the face and we'll run away. That's in the face and we'll run away. That's not likely to be what happens. Again, not likely to be what happens. Again, not likely to be what happens. Again, this is my area of what happens when you this is my area of what happens when you this is my area of what happens when you have military force in politics come have military force in politics come have military force in politics come together. together. together. You need to understand that when those You need to understand that when those You need to understand that when those Marines go in and say hundreds die or or Marines go in and say hundreds die or or Marines go in and say hundreds die or or so over time, there will be 36% of the so over time, there will be 36% of the so over time, there will be 36% of the public that will have supported that. public that will have supported that. public that will have supported that. That 36% is going to see those Marines That 36% is going to see those Marines That 36% is going to see those Marines died for them. That 36% is likely to died for them. That 36% is likely to died for them. That 36% is likely to double down in their commitment because double down in their commitment because double down in their commitment because otherwise they died for nothing. Now, otherwise they died for nothing. Now, otherwise they died for nothing. Now, the 50% 59% excuse me, who's opposed to the 50% 59% excuse me, who's opposed to the 50% 59% excuse me, who's opposed to the war, they'll still be pretty hotly the war, they'll still be pretty hotly the war, they'll still be pretty hotly opposed to the war. I'm not saying opposed to the war. I'm not saying opposed to the war. I'm not saying they're going to move toward the war, they're going to move toward the war, they're going to move toward the war, Stephen. What I'm saying is you have a Stephen. What I'm saying is you have a Stephen. What I'm saying is you have a Republican president supported by 36% of Republican president supported by 36% of Republican president supported by 36% of of the Republicans here, almost no of the Republicans here, almost no of the Republicans here, almost no Democrats. If you start to actually have Democrats. If you start to actually have Democrats. If you start to actually have deaths here, this is going to lead to a deaths here, this is going to lead to a deaths here, this is going to lead to a bigger version of we can't withdraw now. bigger version of we can't withdraw now. bigger version of we can't withdraw now. we must quote finish the job otherwise we must quote finish the job otherwise we must quote finish the job otherwise they will have died for nothing. This is they will have died for nothing. This is they will have died for nothing. This is what happened in Vietnam. In Vietnam in what happened in Vietnam. In Vietnam in what happened in Vietnam. In Vietnam in the early stages you will see that it's the early stages you will see that it's the early stages you will see that it's sticky up the support for the war. It sticky up the support for the war. It sticky up the support for the war. It takes a while to go down. And why does takes a while to go down. And why does takes a while to go down. And why does it take so long to go down? It's because it take so long to go down? It's because it take so long to go down? It's because of exactly what I'm saying. The politics of exactly what I'm saying. The politics of exactly what I'm saying. The politics of this of the death of our troops in of this of the death of our troops in of this of the death of our troops in battle does not lead to we cut and run. battle does not lead to we cut and run. battle does not lead to we cut and run. It leads to we double down for the honor It leads to we double down for the honor It leads to we double down for the honor of the troops. That's why I'm saying we of the troops. That's why I'm saying we of the troops. That's why I'm saying we start this even in a small way. Even start this even in a small way. Even start this even in a small way. Even car. It doesn't really matter where you car. It doesn't really matter where you car. It doesn't really matter where you start it, but once you have those ground start it, but once you have those ground start it, but once you have those ground forces go in and they start to take forces go in and they start to take forces go in and they start to take casualties, you're probably in for the casualties, you're probably in for the casualties, you're probably in for the sixmonth ground war minimum. It looks sixmonth ground war minimum. It looks sixmonth ground war minimum. It looks like they're going to try and avoid that like they're going to try and avoid that like they're going to try and avoid that outcome. It looks like they're doing outcome. It looks like they're doing outcome. It looks like they're doing everything in their power, America, to everything in their power, America, to everything in their power, America, to avoid a scenario where they have to send avoid a scenario where they have to send avoid a scenario where they have to send troops in. The the threats that have troops in. The the threats that have troops in. The the threats that have come out of Donald Trump's truth social come out of Donald Trump's truth social come out of Donald Trump's truth social posts really talk about I mean, look, posts really talk about I mean, look, posts really talk about I mean, look, I'll read this one here. It says, "A I'll read this one here. It says, "A I'll read this one here. It says, "A whole civilization will die tonight, whole civilization will die tonight, whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't never to be brought back again. I don't never to be brought back again. I don't know what will happen, but it probably know what will happen, but it probably know what will happen, but it probably will." Um, and all a lot of the tweets will." Um, and all a lot of the tweets will." Um, and all a lot of the tweets are are are >> Can we just focus on that one, the >> Can we just focus on that one, the >> Can we just focus on that one, the civilization, because it's much that was civilization, because it's much that was civilization, because it's much that was a few days ago. A lot of people are a few days ago. A lot of people are a few days ago. A lot of people are already trying to move past it. This has already trying to move past it. This has already trying to move past it. This has much more importance and endurance than much more importance and endurance than much more importance and endurance than I think we're understanding now. So, I think we're understanding now. So, I think we're understanding now. So, first of all, that statement that first of all, that statement that first of all, that statement that President Trump said that he will end an President Trump said that he will end an President Trump said that he will end an entire civilization in one night, uh, we entire civilization in one night, uh, we entire civilization in one night, uh, we need to understand this is not a drunk need to understand this is not a drunk need to understand this is not a drunk at a bar. This is the president of the at a bar. This is the president of the at a bar. This is the president of the United States who has at his disposal United States who has at his disposal United States who has at his disposal thousands of nuclear weapons that could thousands of nuclear weapons that could thousands of nuclear weapons that could in fact achieve that. And let me just in fact achieve that. And let me just in fact achieve that. And let me just explain how hair triggered these are. We explain how hair triggered these are. We explain how hair triggered these are. We have 500 Minutemen 3 missiles. They have have 500 Minutemen 3 missiles. They have have 500 Minutemen 3 missiles. They have warheads between 100 kilotons and 300 warheads between 100 kilotons and 300 warheads between 100 kilotons and 300 kilotons which is multiple times more kilotons which is multiple times more kilotons which is multiple times more powerful than Hiroshima Nagasaki each powerful than Hiroshima Nagasaki each powerful than Hiroshima Nagasaki each one of them. and they can be retargeted one of them. and they can be retargeted one of them. and they can be retargeted within 45 minutes. That's what it takes within 45 minutes. That's what it takes within 45 minutes. That's what it takes to retarget the gyroscopes. And then it to retarget the gyroscopes. And then it to retarget the gyroscopes. And then it takes about 25 minutes for them to hit takes about 25 minutes for them to hit takes about 25 minutes for them to hit Iran. So when the president of the Iran. So when the president of the Iran. So when the president of the United States is saying this, he's only United States is saying this, he's only United States is saying this, he's only one of a handful of people in the world one of a handful of people in the world one of a handful of people in the world who could pull who could actually make who could pull who could actually make who could pull who could actually make this credible. Second point is that is this credible. Second point is that is this credible. Second point is that is the most declared statement of genocidal the most declared statement of genocidal the most declared statement of genocidal intent we've ever seen from an American intent we've ever seen from an American intent we've ever seen from an American president. No American president has president. No American president has president. No American president has threatened to end a civilization before, threatened to end a civilization before, threatened to end a civilization before, which is at the heart of the genocide which is at the heart of the genocide which is at the heart of the genocide treaties in 1948. The intent to commit treaties in 1948. The intent to commit treaties in 1948. The intent to commit genocide. Harry Truman, people will say, genocide. Harry Truman, people will say, genocide. Harry Truman, people will say, "What do you mean? We had Harry Truman. "What do you mean? We had Harry Truman. "What do you mean? We had Harry Truman. We bomb we we bombed Hiroshima We bomb we we bombed Hiroshima We bomb we we bombed Hiroshima Nagasaki." Go and look at his statement Nagasaki." Go and look at his statement Nagasaki." Go and look at his statement on Hiroshima. Harry Truman. He did not on Hiroshima. Harry Truman. He did not on Hiroshima. Harry Truman. He did not say he was ending Japan as a say he was ending Japan as a say he was ending Japan as a civilization. He pulled back and said it civilization. He pulled back and said it civilization. He pulled back and said it was about to destroy Japan's military was about to destroy Japan's military was about to destroy Japan's military power. What President Trump has done by power. What President Trump has done by power. What President Trump has done by making those statements is he's making those statements is he's making those statements is he's persuading all 92 million Iranians that persuading all 92 million Iranians that persuading all 92 million Iranians that he is willing to kill them and he has he is willing to kill them and he has he is willing to kill them and he has the power to kill them. And yes, he the power to kill them. And yes, he the power to kill them. And yes, he pulled back from killing them on pulled back from killing them on pulled back from killing them on Tuesday. And yes, he may not have used Tuesday. And yes, he may not have used Tuesday. And yes, he may not have used nuclear weapons on Tuesday, but if any nuclear weapons on Tuesday, but if any nuclear weapons on Tuesday, but if any other leader had said that, if imagine other leader had said that, if imagine other leader had said that, if imagine Vladimir Putin stands up and says he's Vladimir Putin stands up and says he's Vladimir Putin stands up and says he's going to end American civilization going to end American civilization going to end American civilization tonight, he's got the weapons to be able tonight, he's got the weapons to be able tonight, he's got the weapons to be able to do that. Are we just going to sit to do that. Are we just going to sit to do that. Are we just going to sit back and say, "Oh, yeah, he didn't do back and say, "Oh, yeah, he didn't do back and say, "Oh, yeah, he didn't do it. He must not have meant it." No. That it. He must not have meant it." No. That it. He must not have meant it." No. That would mobilize enormous anger against would mobilize enormous anger against would mobilize enormous anger against Vladimir Putin in the United States, Vladimir Putin in the United States, Vladimir Putin in the United States, even among Democrats. And my point here, even among Democrats. And my point here, even among Democrats. And my point here, Stephen, is before uh this war started, Stephen, is before uh this war started, Stephen, is before uh this war started, we had a real pro-democracy movement in we had a real pro-democracy movement in we had a real pro-democracy movement in Iran. And on your show, I told you this Iran. And on your show, I told you this Iran. And on your show, I told you this was going to fade. This was one of the was going to fade. This was one of the was going to fade. This was one of the predictions I made to you said this is predictions I made to you said this is predictions I made to you said this is going to fade over time. You're going to going to fade over time. You're going to going to fade over time. You're going to see nationalism bonding the society and see nationalism bonding the society and see nationalism bonding the society and the regime closer together. President the regime closer together. President the regime closer together. President Trump is bonding them together like Trump is bonding them together like Trump is bonding them together like never before. If you're one of the never before. If you're one of the never before. If you're one of the pro-democracy pro-democracy pro-democracy individuals here, movement in Iran, individuals here, movement in Iran, individuals here, movement in Iran, where are you going to go for where are you going to go for where are you going to go for protection? Are you going to go to protection? Are you going to go to protection? Are you going to go to Donald Trump who's threatening to kill Donald Trump who's threatening to kill Donald Trump who's threatening to kill you with essentially nuclear weapons? Or you with essentially nuclear weapons? Or you with essentially nuclear weapons? Or are you going to go to your own are you going to go to your own are you going to go to your own government? This is going to hasten the government? This is going to hasten the government? This is going to hasten the support, increase the support for Iran support, increase the support for Iran support, increase the support for Iran developing nuclear weapons. the developing nuclear weapons. the developing nuclear weapons. the pro-democracy movement is now likely to pro-democracy movement is now likely to pro-democracy movement is now likely to support this. support this. support this. >> On that point, one of the questions and >> On that point, one of the questions and >> On that point, one of the questions and one of the points raised by the audience one of the points raised by the audience one of the points raised by the audience last time we had the conversation was last time we had the conversation was last time we had the conversation was really we didn't spend enough time really we didn't spend enough time really we didn't spend enough time talking about the 90 plus million people talking about the 90 plus million people talking about the 90 plus million people that live in Iran. that live in Iran. that live in Iran. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> That are often many of them caught >> That are often many of them caught >> That are often many of them caught amongst all of this absolute chaos. And amongst all of this absolute chaos. And amongst all of this absolute chaos. And I I was looking at a bunch of messages I I was looking at a bunch of messages I I was looking at a bunch of messages from people that are living in Iran. Um from people that are living in Iran. Um from people that are living in Iran. Um I'll read some of them from ordinary I'll read some of them from ordinary I'll read some of them from ordinary citizens. Um, I'm not great at math, but citizens. Um, I'm not great at math, but citizens. Um, I'm not great at math, but where will the money, the resources, and where will the money, the resources, and where will the money, the resources, and the experts come from to build a country the experts come from to build a country the experts come from to build a country that ordinary people spent decades that ordinary people spent decades that ordinary people spent decades trying to build? trying to build? trying to build? >> From the This is a different person. >> From the This is a different person. >> From the This is a different person. From the beginning of the war until From the beginning of the war until From the beginning of the war until today, we have been bombarded. Not only today, we have been bombarded. Not only today, we have been bombarded. Not only are we not one step closer to freedom, are we not one step closer to freedom, are we not one step closer to freedom, from what I can see, we are miles away from what I can see, we are miles away from what I can see, we are miles away from it. From another person in Iran, a from it. From another person in Iran, a from it. From another person in Iran, a whole civilization will die tonight, whole civilization will die tonight, whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought brought back again. never to be brought brought back again. never to be brought brought back again. This has deeply terrified me. This has deeply terrified me. This has deeply terrified me. It's it's it raises really the question It's it's it raises really the question It's it's it raises really the question a lot of this disc discourse doesn't a lot of this disc discourse doesn't a lot of this disc discourse doesn't speak much to 90 plus million people speak much to 90 plus million people speak much to 90 plus million people that are living there and that are that are living there and that are that are living there and that are having to exist under this terror. And having to exist under this terror. And having to exist under this terror. And like the best way that I could like the best way that I could like the best way that I could conceptualized it is I I I imagined if I conceptualized it is I I I imagined if I conceptualized it is I I I imagined if I had woken up one day and Vladimir Putin had woken up one day and Vladimir Putin had woken up one day and Vladimir Putin or some other leader around the world or some other leader around the world or some other leader around the world had said that they were potentially had said that they were potentially had said that they were potentially going to end the civilization that I going to end the civilization that I going to end the civilization that I live in, the country that I live in live in, the country that I live in live in, the country that I live in tonight, how would I be feeling? And if tonight, how would I be feeling? And if tonight, how would I be feeling? And if I was hearing bombs go off all the t I was hearing bombs go off all the t I was hearing bombs go off all the t time, how would I be feeling? Um, and if time, how would I be feeling? Um, and if time, how would I be feeling? Um, and if things were escalating when me and my things were escalating when me and my things were escalating when me and my family lived, how would I be feeling? family lived, how would I be feeling? family lived, how would I be feeling? And it is chilling to think about. It's And it is chilling to think about. It's And it is chilling to think about. It's chilling because this is now moving the chilling because this is now moving the chilling because this is now moving the needle inside of Iran to make the needle inside of Iran to make the needle inside of Iran to make the ordinary person on the street uh even ordinary person on the street uh even ordinary person on the street uh even the pro-democracy movement willing to the pro-democracy movement willing to the pro-democracy movement willing to tolerate Iran killing Americans tolerate Iran killing Americans tolerate Iran killing Americans because we're killing them and we're because we're killing them and we're because we're killing them and we're saying we're going to do it even worse saying we're going to do it even worse saying we're going to do it even worse and we're say even beyond that we're and we're say even beyond that we're and we're say even beyond that we're saying at the whim of a president who saying at the whim of a president who saying at the whim of a president who wakes up thinking Maybe this will help wakes up thinking Maybe this will help wakes up thinking Maybe this will help his save his presidency. He is willing his save his presidency. He is willing his save his presidency. He is willing to uh uh kill the entire civilization of to uh uh kill the entire civilization of to uh uh kill the entire civilization of a country because he thinks maybe this a country because he thinks maybe this a country because he thinks maybe this is going to be his off his golden uh is going to be his off his golden uh is going to be his off his golden uh offramp to get out of this problem for offramp to get out of this problem for offramp to get out of this problem for himself personally. And by the way, we himself personally. And by the way, we himself personally. And by the way, we we in our country when al-Qaeda attacked we in our country when al-Qaeda attacked we in our country when al-Qaeda attacked us on 9/11, there was tremendous fear. us on 9/11, there was tremendous fear. us on 9/11, there was tremendous fear. There would be more attacks by al-Qaeda There would be more attacks by al-Qaeda There would be more attacks by al-Qaeda in the weeks afterwards. There was just in the weeks afterwards. There was just in the weeks afterwards. There was just much fear. And I've done the studies of much fear. And I've done the studies of much fear. And I've done the studies of the American public opinion on this. the American public opinion on this. the American public opinion on this. It's the fear of Muslims killing It's the fear of Muslims killing It's the fear of Muslims killing Americans that's driving the support for Americans that's driving the support for Americans that's driving the support for the Iraq war. If this is happening to the Iraq war. If this is happening to the Iraq war. If this is happening to Americans, you can only imagine what's Americans, you can only imagine what's Americans, you can only imagine what's going to happen to the ordinary going to happen to the ordinary going to happen to the ordinary Iranians. And they've been subjected not Iranians. And they've been subjected not Iranians. And they've been subjected not to just one attack, 40 days of attack. to just one attack, 40 days of attack. to just one attack, 40 days of attack. >> So for the average Iranian person that >> So for the average Iranian person that >> So for the average Iranian person that opposes the regime in Iran and has been opposes the regime in Iran and has been opposes the regime in Iran and has been living under terror and oppression for living under terror and oppression for living under terror and oppression for many, many decades. many, many decades. many, many decades. What do you think happens next for them? What do you think happens next for them? What do you think happens next for them? They're they're the group of people that They're they're the group of people that They're they're the group of people that I that I think about and care about the I that I think about and care about the I that I think about and care about the most in this equation. We spend a lot of most in this equation. We spend a lot of most in this equation. We spend a lot of time talking about US power and we talk time talking about US power and we talk time talking about US power and we talk about lots of these other regional about lots of these other regional about lots of these other regional partners, but there's like 90 odd partners, but there's like 90 odd partners, but there's like 90 odd million people stuck right in the heart million people stuck right in the heart million people stuck right in the heart of this that often don't really have a of this that often don't really have a of this that often don't really have a voice. voice. voice. >> Their life expectancy will go down in >> Their life expectancy will go down in >> Their life expectancy will go down in measurable years. So if we had taken out measurable years. So if we had taken out measurable years. So if we had taken out the electric power, so this is something the electric power, so this is something the electric power, so this is something I know quite a bit about in the 1990s. I I know quite a bit about in the 1990s. I I know quite a bit about in the 1990s. I was uh working for the Air Force was uh working for the Air Force was uh working for the Air Force literally under uh my boss was John literally under uh my boss was John literally under uh my boss was John Warden, the leader of the leadership Warden, the leader of the leadership Warden, the leader of the leadership decapitation school. And he brought in, decapitation school. And he brought in, decapitation school. And he brought in, not classified at all, he brought in not classified at all, he brought in not classified at all, he brought in engineers of electric power plants to engineers of electric power plants to engineers of electric power plants to teach us how to take down electric teach us how to take down electric teach us how to take down electric power. The electric power grid in Iran, power. The electric power grid in Iran, power. The electric power grid in Iran, it looks like a network. And that it looks like a network. And that it looks like a network. And that network has big nodes. That's what network has big nodes. That's what network has big nodes. That's what President Trump said he would he's going President Trump said he would he's going President Trump said he would he's going to take off the big power plants that to take off the big power plants that to take off the big power plants that produce uh in the 10 20 30 uh megawws uh produce uh in the 10 20 30 uh megawws uh produce uh in the 10 20 30 uh megawws uh range. And they're probably about 130 range. And they're probably about 130 range. And they're probably about 130 nodes altogether. But if you just take nodes altogether. But if you just take nodes altogether. But if you just take out the top 10, you're probably going to out the top 10, you're probably going to out the top 10, you're probably going to take down the entire network because the take down the entire network because the take down the entire network because the top 10 nodes are distributed in the top 10 nodes are distributed in the top 10 nodes are distributed in the right places to support different uh right places to support different uh right places to support different uh electric power in different regions of electric power in different regions of electric power in different regions of the country. You have two choices in a the country. You have two choices in a the country. You have two choices in a target in targeting sense. You can take target in targeting sense. You can take target in targeting sense. You can take out the transformers in which case you out the transformers in which case you out the transformers in which case you knock it out for a week or two and it is knock it out for a week or two and it is knock it out for a week or two and it is inconvenient. And yes, there will be inconvenient. And yes, there will be inconvenient. And yes, there will be some people who will die. There were some people who will die. There were some people who will die. There were human chains around those targets by the human chains around those targets by the human chains around those targets by the way. those people would die. But if you way. those people would die. But if you way. those people would die. But if you took out the hulls, the generating took out the hulls, the generating took out the hulls, the generating hulls, hulls, hulls, >> what's that? >> what's that? >> what's that? >> That's the giant turbines that are huge. >> That's the giant turbines that are huge. >> That's the giant turbines that are huge. There is no backup to those. Each of There is no backup to those. Each of There is no backup to those. Each of those is specially made. You will be those is specially made. You will be those is specially made. You will be knocking the out that generation for 6 knocking the out that generation for 6 knocking the out that generation for 6 months, 12 months, maybe 18 months at a months, 12 months, maybe 18 months at a months, 12 months, maybe 18 months at a minimum. What that's going to do is stop minimum. What that's going to do is stop minimum. What that's going to do is stop all dialysis in the country. that's all dialysis in the country. that's all dialysis in the country. that's going to stop all um the uh heart going to stop all um the uh heart going to stop all um the uh heart surgeries and other life-saving surgeries and other life-saving surgeries and other life-saving surgeries that are going to happen in surgeries that are going to happen in surgeries that are going to happen in the country. It's going to take out all the country. It's going to take out all the country. It's going to take out all the food refrigeration in the country. the food refrigeration in the country. the food refrigeration in the country. So, you know, when power goes out in So, you know, when power goes out in So, you know, when power goes out in your house and goes out for 10 minutes your house and goes out for 10 minutes your house and goes out for 10 minutes or or or an hour, it's not so bad. You or or or an hour, it's not so bad. You or or or an hour, it's not so bad. You don't really notice it. But when it goes don't really notice it. But when it goes don't really notice it. But when it goes out for 2 days or 3 days or a week, all out for 2 days or 3 days or a week, all out for 2 days or 3 days or a week, all the food in your refrigerator spoils and the food in your refrigerator spoils and the food in your refrigerator spoils and you can't eat it fast enough. you can't you can't eat it fast enough. you can't you can't eat it fast enough. you can't give it away fast enough because it's give it away fast enough because it's give it away fast enough because it's happening to everybody on your block. happening to everybody on your block. happening to everybody on your block. Well, that's what would happen across Well, that's what would happen across Well, that's what would happen across the country. So, there's going to be an the country. So, there's going to be an the country. So, there's going to be an enormous amount of spoilage of food and enormous amount of spoilage of food and enormous amount of spoilage of food and that refrigeration then is not going to that refrigeration then is not going to that refrigeration then is not going to be available to come back. And so, be available to come back. And so, be available to come back. And so, you're going to have enormous hunger you're going to have enormous hunger you're going to have enormous hunger problems here. So, people that were problems here. So, people that were problems here. So, people that were already malnourished, they are going to already malnourished, they are going to already malnourished, they are going to be susceptible to more disease. So you be susceptible to more disease. So you be susceptible to more disease. So you will end up lowering the life expectancy will end up lowering the life expectancy will end up lowering the life expectancy in a measurable way of that population. in a measurable way of that population. in a measurable way of that population. >> This company that I've just invested in >> This company that I've just invested in >> This company that I've just invested in is growing like crazy. I want to be the is growing like crazy. I want to be the is growing like crazy. I want to be the one to tell you about it because I think one to tell you about it because I think one to tell you about it because I think it's going to create such a huge it's going to create such a huge it's going to create such a huge productivity advantage for you. Whisper productivity advantage for you. Whisper productivity advantage for you. 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So, there's been a lot of talk in the recent days about a ceasefire and the recent days about a ceasefire and the recent days about a ceasefire and Trump said he was going to he said tweet Trump said he was going to he said tweet Trump said he was going to he said tweet these horrific things about ending a these horrific things about ending a these horrific things about ending a whole civilization tonight and then at whole civilization tonight and then at whole civilization tonight and then at the final hour said that they had the final hour said that they had the final hour said that they had proposed a 10-point plan and that there proposed a 10-point plan and that there proposed a 10-point plan and that there was going to be a twowe ceasefire. What was going to be a twowe ceasefire. What was going to be a twowe ceasefire. What do you think was actually going on do you think was actually going on do you think was actually going on there? there? there? >> The collision of stages three and four. >> The collision of stages three and four. >> The collision of stages three and four. So what you are now seeing is we can we So what you are now seeing is we can we So what you are now seeing is we can we we are now understand we're in it for we are now understand we're in it for we are now understand we're in it for the long haul which means we can't go the long haul which means we can't go the long haul which means we can't go back to February 27. We can't undo the back to February 27. We can't undo the back to February 27. We can't undo the last 40 days. It's just not going to be last 40 days. It's just not going to be last 40 days. It's just not going to be possible. So there's only two futures possible. So there's only two futures possible. So there's only two futures going forward. Future number one is that going forward. Future number one is that going forward. Future number one is that ground war option and we've talked about ground war option and we've talked about ground war option and we've talked about how terrible that is and of course how terrible that is and of course how terrible that is and of course that's obviously bad bad cost. But that's obviously bad bad cost. But that's obviously bad bad cost. But future number two is Iran as an emerging future number two is Iran as an emerging future number two is Iran as an emerging fourth center of world power. And that fourth center of world power. And that fourth center of world power. And that is incredibly damaging to America's is incredibly damaging to America's is incredibly damaging to America's power. And that is going to be damaging power. And that is going to be damaging power. And that is going to be damaging to President Trump's legacy. to President Trump's legacy. to President Trump's legacy. >> Is there not another option where Iran, >> Is there not another option where Iran, >> Is there not another option where Iran, their leadership says, "Okay, we won't their leadership says, "Okay, we won't their leadership says, "Okay, we won't make nuclear weapons. Okay, we'll be make nuclear weapons. Okay, we'll be make nuclear weapons. Okay, we'll be friends. Okay, it's all over. Please friends. Okay, it's all over. Please friends. Okay, it's all over. Please stop bombing us. Let's go for peace." stop bombing us. Let's go for peace." stop bombing us. Let's go for peace." So, so my response to that is I've been So, so my response to that is I've been So, so my response to that is I've been studying the history of international studying the history of international studying the history of international politics for over 35 years. I know quite politics for over 35 years. I know quite politics for over 35 years. I know quite a bit about uh great power politics and a bit about uh great power politics and a bit about uh great power politics and regional power politics going back 300 regional power politics going back 300 regional power politics going back 300 years. I have never seen a country at years. I have never seen a country at years. I have never seen a country at the regional level or at the great power the regional level or at the great power the regional level or at the great power level surrender power. Did America after level surrender power. Did America after level surrender power. Did America after World War II decide, well, yes, uh, we World War II decide, well, yes, uh, we World War II decide, well, yes, uh, we we have the capability to build nuclear we have the capability to build nuclear we have the capability to build nuclear weapons, but, you know, we want to get weapons, but, you know, we want to get weapons, but, you know, we want to get along with the Russians who helped us along with the Russians who helped us along with the Russians who helped us defeat Germany. So, what we're going to defeat Germany. So, what we're going to defeat Germany. So, what we're going to do is we're going to actually have a a a do is we're going to actually have a a a do is we're going to actually have a a a deal, an arms control agree. In fact, deal, an arms control agree. In fact, deal, an arms control agree. In fact, this was proposed, by the way, um, and this was proposed, by the way, um, and this was proposed, by the way, um, and we rejected it, which is we're just we rejected it, which is we're just we rejected it, which is we're just going to not go down that road. We're going to not go down that road. We're going to not go down that road. We're going to surrender the power advantage going to surrender the power advantage going to surrender the power advantage that we have uh here so that we can be that we have uh here so that we can be that we have uh here so that we can be cooperative with the Soviets who had cooperative with the Soviets who had cooperative with the Soviets who had just worked with us to defeat Nazi just worked with us to defeat Nazi just worked with us to defeat Nazi Germany. Germany. Germany. >> So that's not going to happen. >> So that's not going to happen. >> So that's not going to happen. >> We there's no evidence in history in our >> We there's no evidence in history in our >> We there's no evidence in history in our history. We've never surrendered power history. We've never surrendered power history. We've never surrendered power even when it might have been a good even when it might have been a good even when it might have been a good idea. We haven't done that. They're not idea. We haven't done that. They're not idea. We haven't done that. They're not going to do this. going to do this. going to do this. >> They're not going to do that. >> They're not going to do that. >> They're not going to do that. >> No, they're not going to do this. You >> No, they're not going to do this. You >> No, they're not going to do this. You already see this in the in why the uh already see this in the in why the uh already see this in the in why the uh the ceasefire is breaking down. so fast. the ceasefire is breaking down. so fast. the ceasefire is breaking down. so fast. It's breaking down so fast because It's breaking down so fast because It's breaking down so fast because essentially President Trump, he didn't essentially President Trump, he didn't essentially President Trump, he didn't just declare victory. He said that just declare victory. He said that just declare victory. He said that Iran's uh not going to have all this Iran's uh not going to have all this Iran's uh not going to have all this power that I'm explaining to you. And power that I'm explaining to you. And power that I'm explaining to you. And what Iran did is almost immediately what Iran did is almost immediately what Iran did is almost immediately assert, oh yes, we are. They they've assert, oh yes, we are. They they've assert, oh yes, we are. They they've come right back right away. If President come right back right away. If President come right back right away. If President Trump is expecting that out of the Trump is expecting that out of the Trump is expecting that out of the goodness of their heart, they're gonna goodness of their heart, they're gonna goodness of their heart, they're gonna surrender emerging world power, surrender emerging world power, surrender emerging world power, this is this is just a fantasy. Uh it's this is this is just a fantasy. Uh it's this is this is just a fantasy. Uh it's not going to happen. Uh he wouldn't not going to happen. Uh he wouldn't not going to happen. Uh he wouldn't surrender power. Why is he going to surrender power. Why is he going to surrender power. Why is he going to expect Iran's going to surrender power? expect Iran's going to surrender power? expect Iran's going to surrender power? >> So, I'm looking at this apparent >> So, I'm looking at this apparent >> So, I'm looking at this apparent 10-point proposal submitted by Iran. 10-point proposal submitted by Iran. 10-point proposal submitted by Iran. Mhm. Um, and you you got to take this Mhm. Um, and you you got to take this Mhm. Um, and you you got to take this with a pinch of salt because there's with a pinch of salt because there's with a pinch of salt because there's different reports about what this different reports about what this different reports about what this 10point proposal looks like, but it says 10point proposal looks like, but it says 10point proposal looks like, but it says that based on official releases from the that based on official releases from the that based on official releases from the Iranian state news agency, the IRA and Iranian state news agency, the IRA and Iranian state news agency, the IRA and international reporting, the 10-point international reporting, the 10-point international reporting, the 10-point proposal from Iran to the United States proposal from Iran to the United States proposal from Iran to the United States was for a permanent ceasefire, number was for a permanent ceasefire, number was for a permanent ceasefire, number one, end attacks on allies, a complete one, end attacks on allies, a complete one, end attacks on allies, a complete halt to Israel and US strikes across the halt to Israel and US strikes across the halt to Israel and US strikes across the region, specifically Lebanon, Iraq, and region, specifically Lebanon, Iraq, and region, specifically Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen. Number three, reopen the Straight Yemen. Number three, reopen the Straight Yemen. Number three, reopen the Straight of Hummos. Iran will allow safe passage of Hummos. Iran will allow safe passage of Hummos. Iran will allow safe passage through the Straight of Hongos. collect through the Straight of Hongos. collect through the Straight of Hongos. collect tolls. Iran will charge a fee, tolls. Iran will charge a fee, tolls. Iran will charge a fee, reportedly $2 million, for each ship reportedly $2 million, for each ship reportedly $2 million, for each ship passing through the straight. Revenue passing through the straight. Revenue passing through the straight. Revenue sharing with Aman, which is toll sharing with Aman, which is toll sharing with Aman, which is toll revenues, will be split with Oman as revenues, will be split with Oman as revenues, will be split with Oman as custodians of the strait. Number six, custodians of the strait. Number six, custodians of the strait. Number six, lift the sanctions, the complete removal lift the sanctions, the complete removal lift the sanctions, the complete removal of all US primary and secondary of all US primary and secondary of all US primary and secondary sanctions. Release assets. Number seven, sanctions. Release assets. Number seven, sanctions. Release assets. Number seven, the immediate return of all frozen the immediate return of all frozen the immediate return of all frozen Iranian funds held abroad. Number eight, Iranian funds held abroad. Number eight, Iranian funds held abroad. Number eight, the right to enrich uranium. US the right to enrich uranium. US the right to enrich uranium. US acceptance of Iran's right to domestic acceptance of Iran's right to domestic acceptance of Iran's right to domestic uranium enrichment while Iran commits to uranium enrichment while Iran commits to uranium enrichment while Iran commits to not seeking nuclear weapons. Number not seeking nuclear weapons. Number not seeking nuclear weapons. Number nine, war reparations, full compensation nine, war reparations, full compensation nine, war reparations, full compensation paid to Iran for reconstruction costs paid to Iran for reconstruction costs paid to Iran for reconstruction costs from the bombing. And lastly, number 10, from the bombing. And lastly, number 10, from the bombing. And lastly, number 10, the termination of all UN resolutions the termination of all UN resolutions the termination of all UN resolutions against the regime and a new binding UN against the regime and a new binding UN against the regime and a new binding UN Security Council resolution to enforce Security Council resolution to enforce Security Council resolution to enforce this deal. Now, listen, I don't know a this deal. Now, listen, I don't know a this deal. Now, listen, I don't know a lot about what I'm talking about, so lot about what I'm talking about, so lot about what I'm talking about, so that's the disclaimer. However, it that's the disclaimer. However, it that's the disclaimer. However, it sounds like a good deal for Iran in many sounds like a good deal for Iran in many sounds like a good deal for Iran in many respects. on every single point and it respects. on every single point and it respects. on every single point and it also validates Iran as an emerging world also validates Iran as an emerging world also validates Iran as an emerging world power. So all of those points in the power. So all of those points in the power. So all of those points in the details if you think of them as a flow details if you think of them as a flow details if you think of them as a flow diagram all 10 of them are adding up to diagram all 10 of them are adding up to diagram all 10 of them are adding up to validation of Iran as uh top in the validation of Iran as uh top in the validation of Iran as uh top in the hierarchy in the Persian Gulf. So why is hierarchy in the Persian Gulf. So why is hierarchy in the Persian Gulf. So why is it so important to be the number one it so important to be the number one it so important to be the number one strongest state in the world? It's strongest state in the world? It's strongest state in the world? It's because in the last 300 years, whether because in the last 300 years, whether because in the last 300 years, whether it was Britain, the United States, or it was Britain, the United States, or it was Britain, the United States, or whether it's China in the future, the whether it's China in the future, the whether it's China in the future, the number one state typically dictates the number one state typically dictates the number one state typically dictates the rules of how the world systems operate. rules of how the world systems operate. rules of how the world systems operate. Well, what you're seeing with Iran is Well, what you're seeing with Iran is Well, what you're seeing with Iran is they want to dictate the rules in the they want to dictate the rules in the they want to dictate the rules in the Persian Gulf. And that's what that is. Persian Gulf. And that's what that is. Persian Gulf. And that's what that is. Now, if we pull this over, which I love Now, if we pull this over, which I love Now, if we pull this over, which I love your props, uh here, that is good. So your props, uh here, that is good. So your props, uh here, that is good. So right now you see that even though it's right now you see that even though it's right now you see that even though it's the United States is just um uh that the United States is just um uh that the United States is just um uh that lone flag it has this higher weight and lone flag it has this higher weight and lone flag it has this higher weight and what this is reflecting is uh the United what this is reflecting is uh the United what this is reflecting is uh the United States as uh the number one country in States as uh the number one country in States as uh the number one country in the world the most powerful. Now if you the world the most powerful. Now if you the world the most powerful. Now if you also then add um this over here. So this also then add um this over here. So this also then add um this over here. So this would be Israel. You can see this is the would be Israel. You can see this is the would be Israel. You can see this is the world that Netanyahu is depicting um world that Netanyahu is depicting um world that Netanyahu is depicting um before on February 27th. But the actual before on February 27th. But the actual before on February 27th. But the actual world I just want to point out is a world I just want to point out is a world I just want to point out is a little bit different. The actual balance little bit different. The actual balance little bit different. The actual balance of power is closer to this. It's closer of power is closer to this. It's closer of power is closer to this. It's closer to the United States and then we have to the United States and then we have to the United States and then we have China and we have uh Russia. There are China and we have uh Russia. There are China and we have uh Russia. There are three centers of world power and in 1990 three centers of world power and in 1990 three centers of world power and in 1990 um it used to be by the way uh just the um it used to be by the way uh just the um it used to be by the way uh just the United States and the Soviet Union. Then United States and the Soviet Union. Then United States and the Soviet Union. Then Russia, the Soviet Union collapses. This Russia, the Soviet Union collapses. This Russia, the Soviet Union collapses. This is when the United States is the sole is when the United States is the sole is when the United States is the sole superpower, the unipolar moment. It superpower, the unipolar moment. It superpower, the unipolar moment. It immediately shifts like this from 1989 immediately shifts like this from 1989 immediately shifts like this from 1989 to 1992. Dramatic shift. However, along to 1992. Dramatic shift. However, along to 1992. Dramatic shift. However, along the way in the last 30 years, you see um the way in the last 30 years, you see um the way in the last 30 years, you see um this changing. And what's changing? this changing. And what's changing? this changing. And what's changing? Russia actually still is weak. It's Russia actually still is weak. It's Russia actually still is weak. It's still about 2% of the world's GDP. still about 2% of the world's GDP. still about 2% of the world's GDP. That's not really what's changing. That's not really what's changing. That's not really what's changing. What's really changing is is China is What's really changing is is China is What's really changing is is China is now much much much more powerful. It's now much much much more powerful. It's now much much much more powerful. It's still not as powerful as the United still not as powerful as the United still not as powerful as the United States, but notice that we were here in States, but notice that we were here in States, but notice that we were here in 1990 and now the balance is starting to 1990 and now the balance is starting to 1990 and now the balance is starting to be uh to come like this. Well, if we be uh to come like this. Well, if we be uh to come like this. Well, if we start to add Iran as a center of world start to add Iran as a center of world start to add Iran as a center of world power, uh, now we're starting to change power, uh, now we're starting to change power, uh, now we're starting to change this in a much different way. Now these this in a much different way. Now these this in a much different way. Now these three powers are starting together in three powers are starting together in three powers are starting together in concert to become more powerful than the concert to become more powerful than the concert to become more powerful than the United States uh especially with respect United States uh especially with respect United States uh especially with respect to energy and energy matters so much to energy and energy matters so much to energy and energy matters so much because it's an underlying component for because it's an underlying component for because it's an underlying component for our economic growth that GDP the way um our economic growth that GDP the way um our economic growth that GDP the way um uh we measure uh great power Stephen for uh we measure uh great power Stephen for uh we measure uh great power Stephen for decades and decades we've used static decades and decades we've used static decades and decades we've used static indicators GDP how big is your military indicators GDP how big is your military indicators GDP how big is your military How many nuclear weapons you have that How many nuclear weapons you have that How many nuclear weapons you have that all rests on the productive capacity of all rests on the productive capacity of all rests on the productive capacity of your country which is why the productive your country which is why the productive your country which is why the productive capacity is so important. What does that capacity is so important. What does that capacity is so important. What does that turn on? It turns a lot very heavily on turn on? It turns a lot very heavily on turn on? It turns a lot very heavily on oil. Oil today is the commodity. If you oil. Oil today is the commodity. If you oil. Oil today is the commodity. If you lose access to oil within weeks or a lose access to oil within weeks or a lose access to oil within weeks or a month and a half, this has dramatic month and a half, this has dramatic month and a half, this has dramatic cliff effects on your economy. Now, if cliff effects on your economy. Now, if cliff effects on your economy. Now, if you lose access to semiconductors, you lose access to semiconductors, you lose access to semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, that's bad. And it's pharmaceuticals, that's bad. And it's pharmaceuticals, that's bad. And it's bad over time in particular, you lose bad over time in particular, you lose bad over time in particular, you lose access to oil. This is a cliff that you access to oil. This is a cliff that you access to oil. This is a cliff that you we go off over six weeks, eight weeks we go off over six weeks, eight weeks we go off over six weeks, eight weeks because there's not enough uh storage because there's not enough uh storage because there's not enough uh storage capacity of anybody in the world to make capacity of anybody in the world to make capacity of anybody in the world to make up for 20% 30% loss of world oil. up for 20% 30% loss of world oil. up for 20% 30% loss of world oil. >> So on this point of oil, the US don't >> So on this point of oil, the US don't >> So on this point of oil, the US don't get their oil from the straight of get their oil from the straight of get their oil from the straight of Hammoose. Hammoose. Hammoose. >> We don't. But it's a global market and a >> We don't. But it's a global market and a >> We don't. But it's a global market and a lot of the uh price of oil that we're lot of the uh price of oil that we're lot of the uh price of oil that we're going to pay is going to be determined going to pay is going to be determined going to pay is going to be determined by the global price of oil because oil by the global price of oil because oil by the global price of oil because oil is a funible commodity. It's like a uh is a funible commodity. It's like a uh is a funible commodity. It's like a uh water that runs through the whole water that runs through the whole water that runs through the whole system. When there's a shortage, it system. When there's a shortage, it system. When there's a shortage, it drives the price of all of us up. drives the price of all of us up. drives the price of all of us up. >> Okay. So, I've got a graph here showing >> Okay. So, I've got a graph here showing >> Okay. So, I've got a graph here showing the price of oil. And you can see I'll the price of oil. And you can see I'll the price of oil. And you can see I'll throw it up on the screen. You can see throw it up on the screen. You can see throw it up on the screen. You can see it's been climbing ever since the 27th it's been climbing ever since the 27th it's been climbing ever since the 27th of February. So, this will impact of February. So, this will impact of February. So, this will impact Americans at the pump as well. Americans at the pump as well. Americans at the pump as well. >> Oh my gosh. And you see it in the pump >> Oh my gosh. And you see it in the pump >> Oh my gosh. And you see it in the pump already. Where I am in Chicago, I'm already. Where I am in Chicago, I'm already. Where I am in Chicago, I'm paying some I was paying something like paying some I was paying something like paying some I was paying something like 310 a gallon. Now, the last time I I 310 a gallon. Now, the last time I I 310 a gallon. Now, the last time I I filled up, it was 460. It's a bit of a filled up, it was 460. It's a bit of a filled up, it was 460. It's a bit of a misnomer to think that we can as America misnomer to think that we can as America misnomer to think that we can as America get away scot-free with everybody else get away scot-free with everybody else get away scot-free with everybody else losing oil and we're not going to we're losing oil and we're not going to we're losing oil and we're not going to we're not going to pay a price. Now to be not going to pay a price. Now to be not going to pay a price. Now to be clear, we will have supply of oil. The clear, we will have supply of oil. The clear, we will have supply of oil. The price will go up. This will increase price will go up. This will increase price will go up. This will increase inflation. This will probably increase inflation. This will probably increase inflation. This will probably increase bond prices over time. Uh the bond bond prices over time. Uh the bond bond prices over time. Uh the bond price, price, price, >> the bond is the loans that essentially >> the bond is the loans that essentially >> the bond is the loans that essentially any uh corporation companies or the any uh corporation companies or the any uh corporation companies or the University of Chicago takes out to University of Chicago takes out to University of Chicago takes out to borrow money to operate. So the borrow money to operate. So the borrow money to operate. So the University of Chicago borrows uh has has University of Chicago borrows uh has has University of Chicago borrows uh has has 10-year bonds. This is essentially we're 10-year bonds. This is essentially we're 10-year bonds. This is essentially we're borrowing money and then we have to pay borrowing money and then we have to pay borrowing money and then we have to pay back that money plus an interest rate. back that money plus an interest rate. back that money plus an interest rate. That's what the bond rate is. It's an That's what the bond rate is. It's an That's what the bond rate is. It's an interest rate on on borrowed money. interest rate on on borrowed money. interest rate on on borrowed money. Well, if that interest rate goes from 4% Well, if that interest rate goes from 4% Well, if that interest rate goes from 4% on a 10-year bond um to 5% or 6 or 7% on a 10-year bond um to 5% or 6 or 7% on a 10-year bond um to 5% or 6 or 7% the costs of the interest just goes up the costs of the interest just goes up the costs of the interest just goes up massively massively massively >> and everybody will feel that in various >> and everybody will feel that in various >> and everybody will feel that in various ways. the US government right now, the ways. the US government right now, the ways. the US government right now, the biggest uh budget item in the US biggest uh budget item in the US biggest uh budget item in the US government budget is the cost of government budget is the cost of government budget is the cost of interest for the debt of the $40 interest for the debt of the $40 interest for the debt of the $40 trillion in debt. We're going to have to trillion in debt. We're going to have to trillion in debt. We're going to have to shrink social security. You're going to shrink social security. You're going to shrink social security. You're going to have to shrink Medicaid. This is not have to shrink Medicaid. This is not have to shrink Medicaid. This is not notional, Stephen. Iran and uh Russia notional, Stephen. Iran and uh Russia notional, Stephen. Iran and uh Russia together could have a tremendous impact together could have a tremendous impact together could have a tremendous impact on America's economy. This this is the on America's economy. This this is the on America's economy. This this is the real thing. So with your balance of real thing. So with your balance of real thing. So with your balance of power analogy, this is where we where we power analogy, this is where we where we power analogy, this is where we where we could get to. could get to. could get to. >> This is where we could get to with the >> This is where we could get to with the >> This is where we could get to with the next several years. I would say um next several years. I would say um next several years. I would say um probably two years out. I would say that probably two years out. I would say that probably two years out. I would say that America has an edge. And I'm trying to America has an edge. And I'm trying to America has an edge. And I'm trying to depict it as it's like about a 25 or 30% depict it as it's like about a 25 or 30% depict it as it's like about a 25 or 30% edge from the combination of China and edge from the combination of China and edge from the combination of China and Russia today. And China is gaining, but Russia today. And China is gaining, but Russia today. And China is gaining, but still it's actually slow yearbyear. So still it's actually slow yearbyear. So still it's actually slow yearbyear. So you'll see a little bit of an uptick. So you'll see a little bit of an uptick. So you'll see a little bit of an uptick. So maybe going I'm trying to depict from maybe going I'm trying to depict from maybe going I'm trying to depict from say a third advantage for the United say a third advantage for the United say a third advantage for the United States to maybe uh 30% 28% in the next States to maybe uh 30% 28% in the next States to maybe uh 30% 28% in the next four or 5 years. You add Iran to this four or 5 years. You add Iran to this four or 5 years. You add Iran to this and then especially these combinations and then especially these combinations and then especially these combinations I'm describing where they can do things I'm describing where they can do things I'm describing where they can do things together. Now in the next several years together. Now in the next several years together. Now in the next several years you're actually talking about uh the you're actually talking about uh the you're actually talking about uh the scales where these three are much are scales where these three are much are scales where these three are much are stronger than America where I'm not stronger than America where I'm not stronger than America where I'm not talking about just America's losing it talking about just America's losing it talking about just America's losing it incrementally. You're getting abrupt incrementally. You're getting abrupt incrementally. You're getting abrupt changes in the world balance of power. changes in the world balance of power. changes in the world balance of power. >> So, what happens now if Trump just pulls >> So, what happens now if Trump just pulls >> So, what happens now if Trump just pulls out? out? out? >> This is the world. Iran is an oil >> This is the world. Iran is an oil >> This is the world. Iran is an oil hegeimon in the Persian Gulf. Uh, within hegeimon in the Persian Gulf. Uh, within hegeimon in the Persian Gulf. Uh, within a year or so, they're very likely to a year or so, they're very likely to a year or so, they're very likely to have nuclear weapons. I'm saying the have nuclear weapons. I'm saying the have nuclear weapons. I'm saying the pro-democracy movement is going to be pro-democracy movement is going to be pro-democracy movement is going to be pounding the table to get nuclear pounding the table to get nuclear pounding the table to get nuclear weapons. They're going to want to deter weapons. They're going to want to deter weapons. They're going to want to deter any uh idea from Trump of hitting them any uh idea from Trump of hitting them any uh idea from Trump of hitting them again. Um, and then I'm saying beyond again. Um, and then I'm saying beyond again. Um, and then I'm saying beyond that, you have the possibility of Iran that, you have the possibility of Iran that, you have the possibility of Iran and Russia deciding to cooperate here to and Russia deciding to cooperate here to and Russia deciding to cooperate here to strangle uh and coers the United States. strangle uh and coers the United States. strangle uh and coers the United States. And if the United States doesn't cowtow And if the United States doesn't cowtow And if the United States doesn't cowtow to them, then they can pull that oil off to them, then they can pull that oil off to them, then they can pull that oil off the market. the market. the market. >> So, what should >> So, what should >> So, what should Trump do? Do you think if you were Trump do? Do you think if you were Trump do? Do you think if you were president of the United States, what president of the United States, what president of the United States, what would you do right now? So when I was would you do right now? So when I was would you do right now? So when I was here 40 days ago, we had the same here 40 days ago, we had the same here 40 days ago, we had the same question. And what I said was we needed question. And what I said was we needed question. And what I said was we needed to accept uh that there would be a deal to accept uh that there would be a deal to accept uh that there would be a deal and we were going to have to accept that and we were going to have to accept that and we were going to have to accept that the deal that Iran was offering us on the deal that Iran was offering us on the deal that Iran was offering us on February 27 where they would get to keep February 27 where they would get to keep February 27 where they would get to keep their 3.5% enriched uranium wasn't going their 3.5% enriched uranium wasn't going their 3.5% enriched uranium wasn't going to be good enough. We were going to have to be good enough. We were going to have to be good enough. We were going to have to lift oil sanctions. We're going to to lift oil sanctions. We're going to to lift oil sanctions. We're going to have to do various things to sweeten the have to do various things to sweeten the have to do various things to sweeten the deal, so to speak. Well, notice actually deal, so to speak. Well, notice actually deal, so to speak. Well, notice actually Scott Besson did some of that. He did Scott Besson did some of that. He did Scott Besson did some of that. He did lift the but the power of Iran has grown lift the but the power of Iran has grown lift the but the power of Iran has grown so much Stephen that's not good enough so much Stephen that's not good enough so much Stephen that's not good enough and that's what you're seeing with why and that's what you're seeing with why and that's what you're seeing with why this deal is the ceasefire is starting this deal is the ceasefire is starting this deal is the ceasefire is starting to break down from Iran's side. So what to break down from Iran's side. So what to break down from Iran's side. So what would you offer Iran? I think a enforced would you offer Iran? I think a enforced would you offer Iran? I think a enforced military containment of Israel would be military containment of Israel would be military containment of Israel would be a serious uh card that America could a serious uh card that America could a serious uh card that America could play that I think Iran would get Iran at play that I think Iran would get Iran at play that I think Iran would get Iran at least in a serious discussion. I don't least in a serious discussion. I don't least in a serious discussion. I don't know if it would be enough. I want to be know if it would be enough. I want to be know if it would be enough. I want to be careful here that I don't say, "Well, careful here that I don't say, "Well, careful here that I don't say, "Well, this will certainly uh be the deal Iran this will certainly uh be the deal Iran this will certainly uh be the deal Iran will take." But we have to imagine if will take." But we have to imagine if will take." But we have to imagine if Iran has world power, what is it going Iran has world power, what is it going Iran has world power, what is it going to take to get Iran to surrender some of to take to get Iran to surrender some of to take to get Iran to surrender some of that? Well, one thing would be to have that? Well, one thing would be to have that? Well, one thing would be to have confidence that Israel is not going to confidence that Israel is not going to confidence that Israel is not going to keep attacking it or its allies. keep attacking it or its allies. keep attacking it or its allies. >> But then they're not going to believe >> But then they're not going to believe >> But then they're not going to believe that after what's happened. that after what's happened. that after what's happened. >> Well, it would have to go through. You'd >> Well, it would have to go through. You'd >> Well, it would have to go through. You'd have to make it enforceable. It's not have to make it enforceable. It's not have to make it enforceable. It's not going to be good enough to try to going to be good enough to try to going to be good enough to try to promise that. What thing President Trump promise that. What thing President Trump promise that. What thing President Trump could do since the Republicans control could do since the Republicans control could do since the Republicans control both houses of Congress is President both houses of Congress is President both houses of Congress is President Trump could push through a bill through Trump could push through a bill through Trump could push through a bill through Congress that says if Israel attacks Congress that says if Israel attacks Congress that says if Israel attacks Iran or uh could even extend to to Iran or uh could even extend to to Iran or uh could even extend to to Lebanon, but let's at least start with Lebanon, but let's at least start with Lebanon, but let's at least start with Iran. Um all funds for Israel, both Iran. Um all funds for Israel, both Iran. Um all funds for Israel, both military and economic, will be cut off military and economic, will be cut off military and economic, will be cut off through the end of Trump's presidency. through the end of Trump's presidency. through the end of Trump's presidency. Now, that passes through uh both Now, that passes through uh both Now, that passes through uh both chambers of Congress. President Trump chambers of Congress. President Trump chambers of Congress. President Trump signs it. Now you're talking. Now we signs it. Now you're talking. Now we signs it. Now you're talking. Now we actually have as much teeth as you could actually have as much teeth as you could actually have as much teeth as you could ever have of a military containment of ever have of a military containment of ever have of a military containment of Israel. Israel. Israel. >> So presumably in such a scenario, Iran >> So presumably in such a scenario, Iran >> So presumably in such a scenario, Iran would continue to enrich uranium because would continue to enrich uranium because would continue to enrich uranium because they've now had a taste of what can they've now had a taste of what can they've now had a taste of what can happen to them if they're powerless. happen to them if they're powerless. happen to them if they're powerless. >> Well, let me extend this um a little bit >> Well, let me extend this um a little bit >> Well, let me extend this um a little bit more. So let's talk about article two of more. So let's talk about article two of more. So let's talk about article two of the deal that's going to go through the the deal that's going to go through the the deal that's going to go through the Congress. Israel joins the NPT and that Congress. Israel joins the NPT and that Congress. Israel joins the NPT and that is the quidd proquo for getting Iran to is the quidd proquo for getting Iran to is the quidd proquo for getting Iran to accept the on-site inspections of its accept the on-site inspections of its accept the on-site inspections of its 3.5% enriched uranium. So, Israel gets 3.5% enriched uranium. So, Israel gets 3.5% enriched uranium. So, Israel gets to have um its Deamona nuclear power to have um its Deamona nuclear power to have um its Deamona nuclear power plant where it has plutonium for its plant where it has plutonium for its plant where it has plutonium for its nuclear weapons that's measured by the nuclear weapons that's measured by the nuclear weapons that's measured by the non-prololiferation treaty, the IAEA. non-prololiferation treaty, the IAEA. non-prololiferation treaty, the IAEA. Those are the inspectors. And Iran Those are the inspectors. And Iran Those are the inspectors. And Iran will have on-site inspections at the will have on-site inspections at the will have on-site inspections at the various locations we're talking about. various locations we're talking about. various locations we're talking about. But the second part of this, Stephen, But the second part of this, Stephen, But the second part of this, Stephen, would be quit proquo. If Iran is going would be quit proquo. If Iran is going would be quit proquo. If Iran is going to be subject to on-site verification, to be subject to on-site verification, to be subject to on-site verification, on-site monitoring, Israel, which is now on-site monitoring, Israel, which is now on-site monitoring, Israel, which is now not part of the non-prololiferation not part of the non-prololiferation not part of the non-prololiferation treaty, already has nuclear weapons. treaty, already has nuclear weapons. treaty, already has nuclear weapons. It's going to have to accept that this It's going to have to accept that this It's going to have to accept that this can't be a one-sided deal going forward. can't be a one-sided deal going forward. can't be a one-sided deal going forward. It's going to have to be a more balanced It's going to have to be a more balanced It's going to have to be a more balanced situation when it comes to monitoring um situation when it comes to monitoring um situation when it comes to monitoring um nuclear weapons capabilities. nuclear weapons capabilities. nuclear weapons capabilities. >> So, what does that mean specifically >> So, what does that mean specifically >> So, what does that mean specifically that Iran would be able to monitor that Iran would be able to monitor that Iran would be able to monitor Israel's nuclear weapons Israel's nuclear weapons Israel's nuclear weapons >> uh through the IAEA? That's right. That >> uh through the IAEA? That's right. That >> uh through the IAEA? That's right. That would be the material for the weapons, would be the material for the weapons, would be the material for the weapons, not the weapons themselves. So, not the weapons themselves. So, not the weapons themselves. So, >> they already have weapons. So, what's >> they already have weapons. So, what's >> they already have weapons. So, what's there to monitor? there to monitor? there to monitor? >> Oh, no, no, no. Right now, the number of >> Oh, no, no, no. Right now, the number of >> Oh, no, no, no. Right now, the number of Israel's uh Israel's nuclear weapons is Israel's uh Israel's nuclear weapons is Israel's uh Israel's nuclear weapons is not known. We have vague counts. The not known. We have vague counts. The not known. We have vague counts. The reason Israel is not part of the NPT is reason Israel is not part of the NPT is reason Israel is not part of the NPT is not because it doesn't matter. It not because it doesn't matter. It not because it doesn't matter. It provides the kind of calc the kind of provides the kind of calc the kind of provides the kind of calc the kind of detailed information through the IAEA detailed information through the IAEA detailed information through the IAEA that would be useful for estimating the that would be useful for estimating the that would be useful for estimating the size of Israel. Israel Netanyahu is size of Israel. Israel Netanyahu is size of Israel. Israel Netanyahu is going to want to give that information going to want to give that information going to want to give that information to Iran. to Iran. to Iran. >> This isn't about want to anymore. >> This isn't about want to anymore. >> This isn't about want to anymore. Stephen, what we're talking about is Stephen, what we're talking about is Stephen, what we're talking about is what are the offer? You've asked me the what are the offer? You've asked me the what are the offer? You've asked me the hard question. What is an offramp to hard question. What is an offramp to hard question. What is an offramp to this tradeoff between the ground war and this tradeoff between the ground war and this tradeoff between the ground war and Iran as the fourth center of world Iran as the fourth center of world Iran as the fourth center of world power? And I said, okay, there is an power? And I said, okay, there is an power? And I said, okay, there is an actual off-ramp here. But notice that actual off-ramp here. But notice that actual off-ramp here. But notice that the hesitation now is politics. And the hesitation now is politics. And the hesitation now is politics. And that's what I'm trying to explain that that's what I'm trying to explain that that's what I'm trying to explain that that I study the interaction of military that I study the interaction of military that I study the interaction of military action and politics. And I'm with you. I action and politics. And I'm with you. I action and politics. And I'm with you. I I don't think Israel will likely they've I don't think Israel will likely they've I don't think Israel will likely they've been trying to spoil these other deals. been trying to spoil these other deals. been trying to spoil these other deals. I don't think Israel is going to allow I don't think Israel is going to allow I don't think Israel is going to allow this to occur. But now then we're right this to occur. But now then we're right this to occur. But now then we're right back to the tradeoff that nobody wants back to the tradeoff that nobody wants back to the tradeoff that nobody wants to confront. So to confront. So to confront. So >> So what do you think is going to happen? >> So what do you think is going to happen? >> So what do you think is going to happen? What I think is that we are going to go What I think is that we are going to go What I think is that we are going to go back and forth between stage three and back and forth between stage three and back and forth between stage three and stage four for months. stage four for months. stage four for months. >> What's stage three and stage four? >> What's stage three and stage four? >> What's stage three and stage four? >> So stage three are preparations for the >> So stage three are preparations for the >> So stage three are preparations for the ground war. ground war. ground war. >> Yep. >> Yep. >> Yep. >> And Iran emerging as a force center of >> And Iran emerging as a force center of >> And Iran emerging as a force center of world power. I think both of these are world power. I think both of these are world power. I think both of these are likely to go on for months. I think that likely to go on for months. I think that likely to go on for months. I think that uh for stage three, the ground war uh for stage three, the ground war uh for stage three, the ground war option to truly be taken off the table, option to truly be taken off the table, option to truly be taken off the table, you would need to see America you would need to see America you would need to see America withdrawing its military forces. You withdrawing its military forces. You withdrawing its military forces. You would need to see all the carriers leave would need to see all the carriers leave would need to see all the carriers leave the region and go back to uh other parts the region and go back to uh other parts the region and go back to uh other parts of the world. You would need to see the of the world. You would need to see the of the world. You would need to see the Marines that have been moved to the Gulf Marines that have been moved to the Gulf Marines that have been moved to the Gulf go back to Camp Pendleton in California, go back to Camp Pendleton in California, go back to Camp Pendleton in California, go back to uh Japan. You would need to go back to uh Japan. You would need to go back to uh Japan. You would need to see the hundreds of aircraft like the see the hundreds of aircraft like the see the hundreds of aircraft like the F-35s, for example, that have been moved F-35s, for example, that have been moved F-35s, for example, that have been moved to the region. They all need to go back to the region. They all need to go back to the region. They all need to go back to their pre-war locations. So, we're to their pre-war locations. So, we're to their pre-war locations. So, we're going to bounce between stage three and going to bounce between stage three and going to bounce between stage three and stage four. stage four. stage four. >> Yep. That's the diagram. So, the new >> Yep. That's the diagram. So, the new >> Yep. That's the diagram. So, the new diagram I'm trying to diagram I'm trying to diagram I'm trying to >> we just um I think there's still, if you >> we just um I think there's still, if you >> we just um I think there's still, if you pushed me on this last time, I still say pushed me on this last time, I still say pushed me on this last time, I still say there's a 70% chance that we're going to there's a 70% chance that we're going to there's a 70% chance that we're going to start a ground operation. And it's not start a ground operation. And it's not start a ground operation. And it's not because President Trump wants it. It's because President Trump wants it. It's because President Trump wants it. It's not because he's not trying to avoid it. not because he's not trying to avoid it. not because he's not trying to avoid it. It's because there's a trap. And the It's because there's a trap. And the It's because there's a trap. And the trap that he's gonna face is, is he trap that he's gonna face is, is he trap that he's gonna face is, is he really willing to be the president where really willing to be the president where really willing to be the president where under his presidency, Iran detonates a under his presidency, Iran detonates a under his presidency, Iran detonates a nuclear weapon to demonstrate it has nuclear weapon to demonstrate it has nuclear weapon to demonstrate it has nuclear power? From his rhetoric, and nuclear power? From his rhetoric, and nuclear power? From his rhetoric, and listen, these are just the tweets. It listen, these are just the tweets. It listen, these are just the tweets. It seems like the alternate option he's seems like the alternate option he's seems like the alternate option he's considered when he talks about bombing considered when he talks about bombing considered when he talks about bombing the infrastructure and bridges and roads the infrastructure and bridges and roads the infrastructure and bridges and roads and power plants is just completely and power plants is just completely and power plants is just completely decapitating the country and I think in decapitating the country and I think in decapitating the country and I think in his own words, sending it back to the his own words, sending it back to the his own words, sending it back to the stone ages. will come back. This will stone ages. will come back. This will stone ages. will come back. This will come back, but it would be as I believe come back, but it would be as I believe come back, but it would be as I believe the precursor to more ground operations, the precursor to more ground operations, the precursor to more ground operations, Stephen. So, I don't think that this Stephen. So, I don't think that this Stephen. So, I don't think that this will be a case where you do the electric will be a case where you do the electric will be a case where you do the electric power targeting and then it's done. power targeting and then it's done. power targeting and then it's done. Finally, he's satisfied. He's pounded Finally, he's satisfied. He's pounded Finally, he's satisfied. He's pounded them enough and walk away because you do them enough and walk away because you do them enough and walk away because you do the electric power targeting. You have the electric power targeting. You have the electric power targeting. You have further incentivized 92 million. They further incentivized 92 million. They further incentivized 92 million. They still have the enriched uranium. You still have the enriched uranium. You still have the enriched uranium. You have 92 million people desperate now for have 92 million people desperate now for have 92 million people desperate now for not just getting a nuclear weapon for not just getting a nuclear weapon for not just getting a nuclear weapon for deterrence, but for payback. And so you deterrence, but for payback. And so you deterrence, but for payback. And so you will find the pressure for the ground will find the pressure for the ground will find the pressure for the ground war will be even more intense in the war will be even more intense in the war will be even more intense in the aftermath of all of that. This idea aftermath of all of that. This idea aftermath of all of that. This idea they're going to be bombed back to the they're going to be bombed back to the they're going to be bombed back to the stone ages where we won't worry about stone ages where we won't worry about stone ages where we won't worry about them anymore. um they're going to be them anymore. um they're going to be them anymore. um they're going to be this minor country that we will just this minor country that we will just this minor country that we will just ignore. As long as they have 1,000 lb of ignore. As long as they have 1,000 lb of ignore. As long as they have 1,000 lb of 60% enriched uranium, 10,000 lb of five 60% enriched uranium, 10,000 lb of five 60% enriched uranium, 10,000 lb of five and and 20% enriched uranium, um this is and and 20% enriched uranium, um this is and and 20% enriched uranium, um this is this will just not be the case. this will just not be the case. this will just not be the case. >> So, you still think the most plausible >> So, you still think the most plausible >> So, you still think the most plausible probable outcome is that Trump ends up probable outcome is that Trump ends up probable outcome is that Trump ends up sending ground troops in specifically to sending ground troops in specifically to sending ground troops in specifically to do two things? I think I remember you do two things? I think I remember you do two things? I think I remember you saying last time. One of them is to go saying last time. One of them is to go saying last time. One of them is to go and get the uranium. Yep. and get the uranium. Yep. and get the uranium. Yep. >> And the second, I believe, is to defend >> And the second, I believe, is to defend >> And the second, I believe, is to defend the straight of Hormuz. the straight of Hormuz. the straight of Hormuz. >> Yep. Yep. Yep. Yep. I think I think >> Yep. Yep. Yep. Yep. I think I think >> Yep. Yep. Yep. Yep. I think I think these are the two things that are on the these are the two things that are on the these are the two things that are on the table. table. table. >> And you think it's going to it's >> And you think it's going to it's >> And you think it's going to it's probably going to take several months. probably going to take several months. probably going to take several months. >> I think it could go on Yes. for months >> I think it could go on Yes. for months >> I think it could go on Yes. for months because I think that you were going to because I think that you were going to because I think that you were going to see that there's going to be uh this see that there's going to be uh this see that there's going to be uh this back and forth. And the way to monitor back and forth. And the way to monitor back and forth. And the way to monitor this so you can see is the timeline this so you can see is the timeline this so you can see is the timeline speeding up or slowing down is literally speeding up or slowing down is literally speeding up or slowing down is literally the movement of the deployed troops. the movement of the deployed troops. the movement of the deployed troops. Don't track this by what the Don't track this by what the Don't track this by what the negotiations are. Don't track this by negotiations are. Don't track this by negotiations are. Don't track this by what comes out of President Trump's what comes out of President Trump's what comes out of President Trump's mouth or even the Iranians mouth. Track mouth or even the Iranians mouth. Track mouth or even the Iranians mouth. Track this by the movement of forces. That is this by the movement of forces. That is this by the movement of forces. 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We have so many launching to the world. We have so many launching to the world. We have so many incredible things that happen that you incredible things that happen that you incredible things that happen that you are never shown. We have the briefs that are never shown. We have the briefs that are never shown. We have the briefs that are on my iPad when I'm recording the are on my iPad when I'm recording the are on my iPad when I'm recording the conversation. We have clips we've never conversation. We have clips we've never conversation. We have clips we've never released. We have behind the scenes released. We have behind the scenes released. We have behind the scenes conversations with the guests and also conversations with the guests and also conversations with the guests and also the episodes that we've never ever the episodes that we've never ever the episodes that we've never ever released and so much more. In the released and so much more. In the released and so much more. 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So, if you want to join our private closed if you want to join our private closed if you want to join our private closed community, head to the link in the community, head to the link in the community, head to the link in the description below or go to description below or go to description below or go to daccircle.com. on this point where you said you don't on this point where you said you don't think Trump would want to be the think Trump would want to be the think Trump would want to be the president that presided over Iran president that presided over Iran president that presided over Iran releasing a nuclear weapon. Is that releasing a nuclear weapon. Is that releasing a nuclear weapon. Is that because if he pulled out now they would because if he pulled out now they would because if he pulled out now they would enrich the uranium and then maybe enrich the uranium and then maybe enrich the uranium and then maybe demonstrate it under his demonstrate it under his demonstrate it under his >> that that's right. So the scenario that >> that that's right. So the scenario that >> that that's right. So the scenario that I have laid out I've laid this out to my I have laid out I've laid this out to my I have laid out I've laid this out to my classes for years. The idea of what Iran classes for years. The idea of what Iran classes for years. The idea of what Iran would do with nuclear weapons a lot of would do with nuclear weapons a lot of would do with nuclear weapons a lot of people have an image and it's coming people have an image and it's coming people have an image and it's coming from the public so I understand why they from the public so I understand why they from the public so I understand why they have it. People have been a lot of have it. People have been a lot of have it. People have been a lot of people have said this image where Iran people have said this image where Iran people have said this image where Iran gets a a nuclear weapon or two and that gets a a nuclear weapon or two and that gets a a nuclear weapon or two and that what they do immediately is they blow up what they do immediately is they blow up what they do immediately is they blow up Tel Aviv with the first one and maybe Tel Aviv with the first one and maybe Tel Aviv with the first one and maybe New York with the second one. This is New York with the second one. This is New York with the second one. This is just highly unlikely because what would just highly unlikely because what would just highly unlikely because what would happen is we would retaliate with happen is we would retaliate with happen is we would retaliate with nuclear weapons under that. uh here much nuclear weapons under that. uh here much nuclear weapons under that. uh here much more plausible and everything I'm seeing more plausible and everything I'm seeing more plausible and everything I'm seeing from Iran has been completely supporting from Iran has been completely supporting from Iran has been completely supporting the idea that they're thinking this the idea that they're thinking this the idea that they're thinking this through um uh uh strategically is you through um uh uh strategically is you through um uh uh strategically is you would want not to just have one working would want not to just have one working would want not to just have one working nuclear weapon or even two. You want nuclear weapon or even two. You want nuclear weapon or even two. You want five. Ideally, you want 10, maybe even five. Ideally, you want 10, maybe even five. Ideally, you want 10, maybe even 15. This is what happened with North 15. This is what happened with North 15. This is what happened with North Korea. Because once you have, let's even Korea. Because once you have, let's even Korea. Because once you have, let's even say five, the most rational thing to do say five, the most rational thing to do say five, the most rational thing to do is you detonate the first one as a is you detonate the first one as a is you detonate the first one as a detonated test. You test it on your own detonated test. You test it on your own detonated test. You test it on your own territory and then you listen for a week territory and then you listen for a week territory and then you listen for a week while everybody says, "Well, they only while everybody says, "Well, they only while everybody says, "Well, they only had one. They were stupid. They don't had one. They were stupid. They don't had one. They were stupid. They don't have dot." And you detonate the second have dot." And you detonate the second have dot." And you detonate the second one. And once you detonate the second one. And once you detonate the second one. And once you detonate the second one, just like when we hit Nagasaki one, just like when we hit Nagasaki one, just like when we hit Nagasaki after Hiroshima, after Hiroshima, after Hiroshima, everybody will assume there's a lot more everybody will assume there's a lot more everybody will assume there's a lot more there. And that is how you actually there. And that is how you actually there. And that is how you actually deter the United States from attacking deter the United States from attacking deter the United States from attacking you. And by the way, that's what you. And by the way, that's what you. And by the way, that's what effectively North Korea did. When effectively North Korea did. When effectively North Korea did. When President Trump took office in 2016, President Trump took office in 2016, President Trump took office in 2016, North Korea was a major problem. We were North Korea was a major problem. We were North Korea was a major problem. We were talking about bombing North Korea and so talking about bombing North Korea and so talking about bombing North Korea and so forth. And there's multiple reasons, but forth. And there's multiple reasons, but forth. And there's multiple reasons, but the big issues are that North Korea has the big issues are that North Korea has the big issues are that North Korea has a lot of nuclear weapons. We're not a lot of nuclear weapons. We're not a lot of nuclear weapons. We're not going to be able to get them all. They going to be able to get them all. They going to be able to get them all. They have some other things they can do too have some other things they can do too have some other things they can do too like like artillery on soul. But this like like artillery on soul. But this like like artillery on soul. But this isn't just North Korea and Trump decided isn't just North Korea and Trump decided isn't just North Korea and Trump decided to be, you know, sort of best buds here. to be, you know, sort of best buds here. to be, you know, sort of best buds here. >> So the other route that played out in my >> So the other route that played out in my >> So the other route that played out in my mind was that Trump would just keep mind was that Trump would just keep mind was that Trump would just keep bombing Iran to keep them weak. But bombing Iran to keep them weak. But bombing Iran to keep them weak. But again, that doesn't solve the straight again, that doesn't solve the straight again, that doesn't solve the straight of Hammoose problem. of Hammoose problem. of Hammoose problem. >> Doesn't solve the uranium problem and >> Doesn't solve the uranium problem and >> Doesn't solve the uranium problem and doesn't solve the straight of Hormuz doesn't solve the straight of Hormuz doesn't solve the straight of Hormuz problem because if we knew where that problem because if we knew where that problem because if we knew where that material was and we could just bomb it material was and we could just bomb it material was and we could just bomb it out of existence. I'm talking about the out of existence. I'm talking about the out of existence. I'm talking about the enriched uranium material. We would have enriched uranium material. We would have enriched uranium material. We would have done this already. done this already. done this already. >> Which leads all roads to really the only >> Which leads all roads to really the only >> Which leads all roads to really the only solution being some kind of deal. solution being some kind of deal. solution being some kind of deal. >> Absolutely. That's why the best thing to >> Absolutely. That's why the best thing to >> Absolutely. That's why the best thing to do is a deal with the military do is a deal with the military do is a deal with the military containment of Israel. That's deal. containment of Israel. That's deal. containment of Israel. That's deal. >> The problem you have with such a deal if >> The problem you have with such a deal if >> The problem you have with such a deal if when you're going into that deal is the when you're going into that deal is the when you're going into that deal is the enemy know that you don't really have a enemy know that you don't really have a enemy know that you don't really have a plan B. You don't have a plan B. That's plan B. You don't have a plan B. That's plan B. You don't have a plan B. That's right. right. right. >> And so your negotiation position is very >> And so your negotiation position is very >> And so your negotiation position is very weak. That's why you That's why you're weak. That's why you That's why you're weak. That's why you That's why you're they're going to keep their 3.5% they're going to keep their 3.5% they're going to keep their 3.5% enriched uranium no matter what. The enriched uranium no matter what. The enriched uranium no matter what. The problem we face here is if we were ever problem we face here is if we were ever problem we face here is if we were ever going to get the 3.5% enriched uranium going to get the 3.5% enriched uranium going to get the 3.5% enriched uranium um to go away, we should never have um to go away, we should never have um to go away, we should never have ripped up the Obama nuclear deal by ripped up the Obama nuclear deal by ripped up the Obama nuclear deal by Trump in 2018. They've been developing Trump in 2018. They've been developing Trump in 2018. They've been developing ever since the Biden administration. He ever since the Biden administration. He ever since the Biden administration. He Trump one couldn't figure out how to Trump one couldn't figure out how to Trump one couldn't figure out how to stop the enriched uranium by by Iran. stop the enriched uranium by by Iran. stop the enriched uranium by by Iran. Biden couldn't figure out how to stop Biden couldn't figure out how to stop Biden couldn't figure out how to stop it. Trump now has been trying to figure it. Trump now has been trying to figure it. Trump now has been trying to figure out how to stop it. And you know what? out how to stop it. And you know what? out how to stop it. And you know what? It's not stoppable. It's not stoppable It's not stoppable. It's not stoppable It's not stoppable. It's not stoppable short of these options I'm laying out. short of these options I'm laying out. short of these options I'm laying out. There's no way to get that material There's no way to get that material There's no way to get that material without ground forces, Stephen. And without ground forces, Stephen. And without ground forces, Stephen. And you're not going to send those ground you're not going to send those ground you're not going to send those ground forces in just a thousand guys to get be forces in just a thousand guys to get be forces in just a thousand guys to get be it some postage stamp of an area for a it some postage stamp of an area for a it some postage stamp of an area for a month or two trying to find that month or two trying to find that month or two trying to find that enriched uranium. This is just not enriched uranium. This is just not enriched uranium. This is just not realistic. Going to be a bigger option. realistic. Going to be a bigger option. realistic. Going to be a bigger option. >> I think it's clear to me, you know, I do >> I think it's clear to me, you know, I do >> I think it's clear to me, you know, I do this podcast and ask these questions and this podcast and ask these questions and this podcast and ask these questions and have people on because I'm actually have people on because I'm actually have people on because I'm actually really trying to find answers for really trying to find answers for really trying to find answers for myself. And I think if I've arrived at myself. And I think if I've arrived at myself. And I think if I've arrived at any conclusion from everything I've any conclusion from everything I've any conclusion from everything I've learned over the last couple of weeks, learned over the last couple of weeks, learned over the last couple of weeks, it's that I think Trump made a really it's that I think Trump made a really it's that I think Trump made a really big mistake. Um pro and that mistake big mistake. Um pro and that mistake big mistake. Um pro and that mistake probably started when he ripped up probably started when he ripped up probably started when he ripped up Obama's deal. Obama's deal. Obama's deal. >> That's right. >> That's right. >> That's right. >> But it's clear that >> But it's clear that >> But it's clear that >> Foraux was the really really big one. >> Foraux was the really really big one. >> Foraux was the really really big one. >> I think I think he's stuck. >> I think I think he's stuck. >> I think I think he's stuck. >> He is stuck. >> He is stuck. >> He is stuck. >> I think he's stuck. I think he's facing >> I think he's stuck. I think he's facing >> I think he's stuck. I think he's facing several bad options going forward. So I several bad options going forward. So I several bad options going forward. So I really have no idea what's going to really have no idea what's going to really have no idea what's going to happen. And happen. And happen. And >> well what you're going to what you will >> well what you're going to what you will >> well what you're going to what you will also watch Stephen back to politics here also watch Stephen back to politics here also watch Stephen back to politics here is uh Trump right now we're not it's not is uh Trump right now we're not it's not is uh Trump right now we're not it's not just paper anymore who's saying he's just paper anymore who's saying he's just paper anymore who's saying he's lost control he's losing power the world lost control he's losing power the world lost control he's losing power the world is saying that and this is going to is saying that and this is going to is saying that and this is going to start to become the Republican party is start to become the Republican party is start to become the Republican party is going to say that and what this is going going to say that and what this is going going to say that and what this is going to do is it's going to incentivize Trump to do is it's going to incentivize Trump to do is it's going to incentivize Trump even more probably to become more even more probably to become more even more probably to become more belligerent not to become calmer so as belligerent not to become calmer so as belligerent not to become calmer so as Trump is becoming the lamest of lame Trump is becoming the lamest of lame Trump is becoming the lamest of lame ducks going forward because it's evident ducks going forward because it's evident ducks going forward because it's evident he's losing power and as he loses power he's losing power and as he loses power he's losing power and as he loses power here on the international scene this here on the international scene this here on the international scene this will mean he will lose power will mean he will lose power will mean he will lose power domestically as well and we'll never go domestically as well and we'll never go domestically as well and we'll never go to zero but it will be a slow decline to zero but it will be a slow decline to zero but it will be a slow decline this is where the real sort of future is this is where the real sort of future is this is where the real sort of future is here why this is not simply a steady here why this is not simply a steady here why this is not simply a steady state now this is why I won't make a state now this is why I won't make a state now this is why I won't make a prediction of what's going happen in prediction of what's going happen in prediction of what's going happen in September. We are not at a steady state. September. We are not at a steady state. September. We are not at a steady state. It is an unstable balance here between It is an unstable balance here between It is an unstable balance here between three and four. Three and four. three and four. Three and four. three and four. Three and four. >> What do you think happens with Europe? I >> What do you think happens with Europe? I >> What do you think happens with Europe? I feel like Europe, you know, Europe feel like Europe, you know, Europe feel like Europe, you know, Europe aren't on either side of your scale aren't on either side of your scale aren't on either side of your scale here. You've got Iran, Russia, and China here. You've got Iran, Russia, and China here. You've got Iran, Russia, and China on one end of the scale scale. You've on one end of the scale scale. You've on one end of the scale scale. You've got the US on the other. Europe and got the US on the other. Europe and got the US on the other. Europe and NATO, what happens? Are they going to NATO, what happens? Are they going to NATO, what happens? Are they going to >> NATO is for all practical purposes dead? >> NATO is for all practical purposes dead? >> NATO is for all practical purposes dead? We're just writing its obituary. It's a We're just writing its obituary. It's a We're just writing its obituary. It's a body in the morg already. Most people body in the morg already. Most people body in the morg already. Most people don't think that NATO is a political don't think that NATO is a political don't think that NATO is a political alliance. NATO is much more than that. alliance. NATO is much more than that. alliance. NATO is much more than that. If there's an article 5, what that If there's an article 5, what that If there's an article 5, what that means, Stephen, is there's a military means, Stephen, is there's a military means, Stephen, is there's a military operation with an American general at operation with an American general at operation with an American general at the top. And with article 5, the the top. And with article 5, the the top. And with article 5, the American general tells the other count's American general tells the other count's American general tells the other count's militaries, including their nuclear militaries, including their nuclear militaries, including their nuclear weapons, what to do. Now, if you're weapons, what to do. Now, if you're weapons, what to do. Now, if you're Britain and you have nuclear weapons and Britain and you have nuclear weapons and Britain and you have nuclear weapons and or even if besides the nuclear weapons, or even if besides the nuclear weapons, or even if besides the nuclear weapons, if you're Germany, you don't have them, if you're Germany, you don't have them, if you're Germany, you don't have them, are you going to follow uh uh General are you going to follow uh uh General are you going to follow uh uh General Kane's orders on anything at this point? Kane's orders on anything at this point? Kane's orders on anything at this point? I don't think so. I don't think so. I don't think so. >> So, article 5 is the document that all >> So, article 5 is the document that all >> So, article 5 is the document that all the NATO countries have signed. No, it's the NATO countries have signed. No, it's the NATO countries have signed. No, it's the part of the NATO treaty which says the part of the NATO treaty which says the part of the NATO treaty which says if there's a NATO operations like in if there's a NATO operations like in if there's a NATO operations like in Afghanistan, Afghanistan, Afghanistan, it's American general who orders all the it's American general who orders all the it's American general who orders all the other countries militaries what to it's other countries militaries what to it's other countries militaries what to it's a hierarchy. So it's not a um a a hierarchy. So it's not a um a a hierarchy. So it's not a um a collection where the countries get collection where the countries get collection where the countries get together and they have these big like uh together and they have these big like uh together and they have these big like uh cooperative decisions. No, the Americans cooperative decisions. No, the Americans cooperative decisions. No, the Americans run the plan. They are the ones who run the plan. They are the ones who run the plan. They are the ones who organize the military operation. they organize the military operation. they organize the military operation. they run the plan and they just assign the uh run the plan and they just assign the uh run the plan and they just assign the uh other countries uh roles the way they other countries uh roles the way they other countries uh roles the way they would um the army, the navy and the air would um the army, the navy and the air would um the army, the navy and the air force inside of the Pentagon. What I'm force inside of the Pentagon. What I'm force inside of the Pentagon. What I'm saying is what you just saw with Iran is saying is what you just saw with Iran is saying is what you just saw with Iran is such a a horrible catastrophic failure such a a horrible catastrophic failure such a a horrible catastrophic failure within just weeks. The idea that any within just weeks. The idea that any within just weeks. The idea that any Europeans are going to follow the orders Europeans are going to follow the orders Europeans are going to follow the orders of an American general and and I don't of an American general and and I don't of an American general and and I don't even think this is going to be just even think this is going to be just even think this is going to be just under Donald Trump. I mean, I think for under Donald Trump. I mean, I think for under Donald Trump. I mean, I think for years, I think this is just laughable. years, I think this is just laughable. years, I think this is just laughable. >> Trump was quite angry and scathing with >> Trump was quite angry and scathing with >> Trump was quite angry and scathing with his words about NATO. He said, "It's a his words about NATO. He said, "It's a his words about NATO. He said, "It's a paper tiger and referred to them as paper tiger and referred to them as paper tiger and referred to them as cowards." And as we've been sat here cowards." And as we've been sat here cowards." And as we've been sat here today, you might be aware that NATO were today, you might be aware that NATO were today, you might be aware that NATO were meeting with Trump today in Washington meeting with Trump today in Washington meeting with Trump today in Washington DC. And the NATO Secretary General Mark DC. And the NATO Secretary General Mark DC. And the NATO Secretary General Mark Root said, "When it came time to provide Root said, "When it came time to provide Root said, "When it came time to provide the logistical and other support to the the logistical and other support to the the logistical and other support to the United States needed in Iran, some United States needed in Iran, some United States needed in Iran, some allies were a bit slow, to say the allies were a bit slow, to say the allies were a bit slow, to say the least. In fairness, they were a bit least. In fairness, they were a bit least. In fairness, they were a bit surprised. To maintain the element of surprised. To maintain the element of surprised. To maintain the element of surprise for the initial strikes, surprise for the initial strikes, surprise for the initial strikes, President Trump opted not to inform us President Trump opted not to inform us President Trump opted not to inform us ahead of time. But what I see when I ahead of time. But what I see when I ahead of time. But what I see when I look across Europe today is allies look across Europe today is allies look across Europe today is allies providing a massive amount of support providing a massive amount of support providing a massive amount of support nearly without exception. Allies are nearly without exception. Allies are nearly without exception. Allies are doing everything the United States is doing everything the United States is doing everything the United States is asking. They have heard and are asking. They have heard and are asking. They have heard and are responding to President Trump's request. responding to President Trump's request. responding to President Trump's request. So, it sounds a little bit like an So, it sounds a little bit like an So, it sounds a little bit like an apology tour coming from NATO. Um, and apology tour coming from NATO. Um, and apology tour coming from NATO. Um, and the German chancellor has also made made the German chancellor has also made made the German chancellor has also made made a comment saying that they do not want a comment saying that they do not want a comment saying that they do not want to split NATO. to split NATO. to split NATO. >> Well, they don't want American troops to >> Well, they don't want American troops to >> Well, they don't want American troops to leave the um uh the European continent leave the um uh the European continent leave the um uh the European continent because that provides some deterrent to because that provides some deterrent to because that provides some deterrent to Russia. That's what you're hearing Russia. That's what you're hearing Russia. That's what you're hearing there. But NATO was always had an there. But NATO was always had an there. But NATO was always had an anchor. Remember we talked about anchor. Remember we talked about anchor. Remember we talked about anchors. The anchor in NATO was anchors. The anchor in NATO was anchors. The anchor in NATO was America's protection of European America's protection of European America's protection of European security. What you're seeing when security. What you're seeing when security. What you're seeing when President Trump creates a problem, a President Trump creates a problem, a President Trump creates a problem, a catastrophe the for the world and says catastrophe the for the world and says catastrophe the for the world and says he won't send American uh forces in to he won't send American uh forces in to he won't send American uh forces in to the straight of Hormuz, but he wants the the straight of Hormuz, but he wants the the straight of Hormuz, but he wants the Europeans to send their forces into the Europeans to send their forces into the Europeans to send their forces into the straight of Hormuz. This is the opposite straight of Hormuz. This is the opposite straight of Hormuz. This is the opposite of protection. He's making NATO of protection. He's making NATO of protection. He's making NATO countries or European countries countries or European countries countries or European countries vulnerable and they're reacting to that vulnerable and they're reacting to that vulnerable and they're reacting to that by saying we won't do it. by saying we won't do it. by saying we won't do it. >> According to diplomats, NATO secretary >> According to diplomats, NATO secretary >> According to diplomats, NATO secretary briefed member capitals today that Trump briefed member capitals today that Trump briefed member capitals today that Trump is demanding concrete commitments within is demanding concrete commitments within is demanding concrete commitments within the next few days from NATO to help to the next few days from NATO to help to the next few days from NATO to help to secure the strait of Hormuz, which would secure the strait of Hormuz, which would secure the strait of Hormuz, which would only make sense if you were doing phase only make sense if you were doing phase only make sense if you were doing phase three, the ground operation. So you three, the ground operation. So you three, the ground operation. So you cannot secure the straight of H for H for H for H for H for H for H for H for H for H formuz only with air power. We H for H formuz only with air power. We H for H formuz only with air power. We if we could we already would. You can't if we could we already would. You can't if we could we already would. You can't secure it only with naval power. If you secure it only with naval power. If you secure it only with naval power. If you could we already would. We have a much could we already would. We have a much could we already would. We have a much bigger navy, much bigger air forces than bigger navy, much bigger air forces than bigger navy, much bigger air forces than any of those countries individually or any of those countries individually or any of those countries individually or even combined. The only reason you would even combined. The only reason you would even combined. The only reason you would really want those uh forces from NATO is really want those uh forces from NATO is really want those uh forces from NATO is uh because you're planning on a bigger uh because you're planning on a bigger uh because you're planning on a bigger ground operation and you're that's what ground operation and you're that's what ground operation and you're that's what you're seeing right there. And I don't you're seeing right there. And I don't you're seeing right there. And I don't think Europeans, let's not even talking think Europeans, let's not even talking think Europeans, let's not even talking about the word NATO. I don't think the about the word NATO. I don't think the about the word NATO. I don't think the Europeans are likely to do it because Europeans are likely to do it because Europeans are likely to do it because you're seeing why would they, if they're you're seeing why would they, if they're you're seeing why would they, if they're ever going to do it, Stephen, they would ever going to do it, Stephen, they would ever going to do it, Stephen, they would want Trump out of office. The number one want Trump out of office. The number one want Trump out of office. The number one thing that I don't think is going to thing that I don't think is going to thing that I don't think is going to happen here is anybody's going to bail happen here is anybody's going to bail happen here is anybody's going to bail out Trump. out Trump. out Trump. >> It's political suicide really for a lot >> It's political suicide really for a lot >> It's political suicide really for a lot of the European leaders. of the European leaders. of the European leaders. >> Political suicide for the Democrats to >> Political suicide for the Democrats to >> Political suicide for the Democrats to bail out Trump in our country. It's bail out Trump in our country. It's bail out Trump in our country. It's going to start to become political going to start to become political going to start to become political suicide for even Republicans to bail out suicide for even Republicans to bail out suicide for even Republicans to bail out Trump. That's what you're going to start Trump. That's what you're going to start Trump. That's what you're going to start to see in the fall. And it's going to be to see in the fall. And it's going to be to see in the fall. And it's going to be political suicide for the Japanese, for political suicide for the Japanese, for political suicide for the Japanese, for the Indians. This is the problem. Trump the Indians. This is the problem. Trump the Indians. This is the problem. Trump caused the problem. caused the problem. caused the problem. He's, as I said on your show last time, He's, as I said on your show last time, He's, as I said on your show last time, he's going to become LBJ if he doesn't he's going to become LBJ if he doesn't he's going to become LBJ if he doesn't uh take a deal soon. Well, that was 40 uh take a deal soon. Well, that was 40 uh take a deal soon. Well, that was 40 days ago, Stephen, and he still hasn't days ago, Stephen, and he still hasn't days ago, Stephen, and he still hasn't taken the deal. Not really. And he's taken the deal. Not really. And he's taken the deal. Not really. And he's becoming LBJ. Nobody's going to want to becoming LBJ. Nobody's going to want to becoming LBJ. Nobody's going to want to be associated with him. be associated with him. be associated with him. >> Here in the UK, we have Karma as the >> Here in the UK, we have Karma as the >> Here in the UK, we have Karma as the prime minister. And it appears to me prime minister. And it appears to me prime minister. And it appears to me that since he's come out and started that since he's come out and started that since he's come out and started saying that he won't support Trump's saying that he won't support Trump's saying that he won't support Trump's war, he we won't send troops to the war, he we won't send troops to the war, he we won't send troops to the Middle East, it appears that that's Middle East, it appears that that's Middle East, it appears that that's actually driven up his favorability actually driven up his favorability actually driven up his favorability amongst certain people. And it makes me amongst certain people. And it makes me amongst certain people. And it makes me think that actually, as we say, it's think that actually, as we say, it's think that actually, as we say, it's it's political suicide for European it's political suicide for European it's political suicide for European leaders to send troops there because leaders to send troops there because leaders to send troops there because they will be they will lose the next they will be they will lose the next they will be they will lose the next election in their country. election in their country. election in their country. >> I I think you put it exact excellent, >> I I think you put it exact excellent, >> I I think you put it exact excellent, Stephen. I I really can't improve on Stephen. I I really can't improve on Stephen. I I really can't improve on that. Let me just say that a year ago that. Let me just say that a year ago that. Let me just say that a year ago with the tariffs um I started to do a with the tariffs um I started to do a with the tariffs um I started to do a study of tracking how European support study of tracking how European support study of tracking how European support for America was starting to go into the for America was starting to go into the for America was starting to go into the tank and that was with tariffs. Now what tank and that was with tariffs. Now what tank and that was with tariffs. Now what Trump has done is he's driven up the Trump has done is he's driven up the Trump has done is he's driven up the price of oil. He's hurting their price of oil. He's hurting their price of oil. He's hurting their economies in a serious way and as that economies in a serious way and as that economies in a serious way and as that actual damage occurs and it's still in actual damage occurs and it's still in actual damage occurs and it's still in the pipeline. it hasn't hit as strong as the pipeline. it hasn't hit as strong as the pipeline. it hasn't hit as strong as it likely will in the next month. You it likely will in the next month. You it likely will in the next month. You are likely going to see that the publics are likely going to see that the publics are likely going to see that the publics in Europe are going to become in Europe are going to become in Europe are going to become anti-American anti-American anti-American and it's not just going to be can't and it's not just going to be can't and it's not just going to be can't support Trump anymore coming here. I had support Trump anymore coming here. I had support Trump anymore coming here. I had to pay the the visa the ETA and it it to pay the the visa the ETA and it it to pay the the visa the ETA and it it took forever and what's happening here. took forever and what's happening here. took forever and what's happening here. We're getting some payback here on We're getting some payback here on We're getting some payback here on Americans. I think this next next time I Americans. I think this next next time I Americans. I think this next next time I come to London, I'm not going to be come to London, I'm not going to be come to London, I'm not going to be surprised that the price of that visa is surprised that the price of that visa is surprised that the price of that visa is doubling or tripling. doubling or tripling. doubling or tripling. >> What is your closing highlevel remark >> What is your closing highlevel remark >> What is your closing highlevel remark about all this stuff? And I guess I about all this stuff? And I guess I about all this stuff? And I guess I really want to focus it on on the really want to focus it on on the really want to focus it on on the average person who is going about their average person who is going about their average person who is going about their life as a normal civilian in any of life as a normal civilian in any of life as a normal civilian in any of these countries that are affected. What these countries that are affected. What these countries that are affected. What is the highle point of view here that we is the highle point of view here that we is the highle point of view here that we we need to close upon? The high level we need to close upon? The high level we need to close upon? The high level point of view is we're about to start point of view is we're about to start point of view is we're about to start think think seriously about the election think think seriously about the election think think seriously about the election and what we need to do is not just and what we need to do is not just and what we need to do is not just choose bounce back and forth between uh choose bounce back and forth between uh choose bounce back and forth between uh Republican and Democrat and actually Republican and Democrat and actually Republican and Democrat and actually Britain is a is a case study of what can Britain is a is a case study of what can Britain is a is a case study of what can happen if you bounce back and forth happen if you bounce back and forth happen if you bounce back and forth here. We need to start to really support here. We need to start to really support here. We need to start to really support strong stable policies that will empower strong stable policies that will empower strong stable policies that will empower the middle. The problem that we face, the middle. The problem that we face, the middle. The problem that we face, Stephen, is we're moving back and forth Stephen, is we're moving back and forth Stephen, is we're moving back and forth from really uh ideas here that uh one from really uh ideas here that uh one from really uh ideas here that uh one year we we really don't like what year we we really don't like what year we we really don't like what Biden's doing and now we have the Biden's doing and now we have the Biden's doing and now we have the radical wing on the other side and we radical wing on the other side and we radical wing on the other side and we certainly don't like that. Well, if we certainly don't like that. Well, if we certainly don't like that. Well, if we keep going back and forth here between keep going back and forth here between keep going back and forth here between two uh extreme alternatives, we'll just two uh extreme alternatives, we'll just two uh extreme alternatives, we'll just get different versions of bad outcomes. get different versions of bad outcomes. get different versions of bad outcomes. And it's not making things better. It's And it's not making things better. It's And it's not making things better. It's a cycle that's making it solution. a cycle that's making it solution. a cycle that's making it solution. >> The solution is the public needs to hear >> The solution is the public needs to hear >> The solution is the public needs to hear that every election, every choice, we that every election, every choice, we that every election, every choice, we are uh we have an opportunity here to are uh we have an opportunity here to are uh we have an opportunity here to focus on the more centrist candidates. focus on the more centrist candidates. focus on the more centrist candidates. And this is something that we really can And this is something that we really can And this is something that we really can make decisions about. And it's just make decisions about. And it's just make decisions about. And it's just simply the case that if we don't do simply the case that if we don't do simply the case that if we don't do that, what you're going to get is you're that, what you're going to get is you're that, what you're going to get is you're going to get back and forth bouncing going to get back and forth bouncing going to get back and forth bouncing around. And I don't think a third party around. And I don't think a third party around. And I don't think a third party here, these ideas are really very here, these ideas are really very here, these ideas are really very meaningful. This really comes down to meaningful. This really comes down to meaningful. This really comes down to talking to the public. And it's one of talking to the public. And it's one of talking to the public. And it's one of the big reasons, Stephen, I'm going to the big reasons, Stephen, I'm going to the big reasons, Stephen, I'm going to the podcast world because you remember I the podcast world because you remember I the podcast world because you remember I I've advised every White House and so I've advised every White House and so I've advised every White House and so forth. We've got to get beyond that. forth. We've got to get beyond that. forth. We've got to get beyond that. We've got to actually talk to real We've got to actually talk to real We've got to actually talk to real people and this is what you do and people and this is what you do and people and this is what you do and increasingly I'm doing it and I really increasingly I'm doing it and I really increasingly I'm doing it and I really believe that the podcast network is an believe that the podcast network is an believe that the podcast network is an opportunity to do that. But it doesn't opportunity to do that. But it doesn't opportunity to do that. But it doesn't mean that it forces people to vote mean that it forces people to vote mean that it forces people to vote Democrat or Republican. We've got to Democrat or Republican. We've got to Democrat or Republican. We've got to understand that we we can't just keep understand that we we can't just keep understand that we we can't just keep thinking about uh well, okay, now we're thinking about uh well, okay, now we're thinking about uh well, okay, now we're really mad at Donald Trump and we're really mad at Donald Trump and we're really mad at Donald Trump and we're going to get the independents and now going to get the independents and now going to get the independents and now they're going to vote with the Democrats they're going to vote with the Democrats they're going to vote with the Democrats if all we do is end up getting another if all we do is end up getting another if all we do is end up getting another extreme on the other side because what extreme on the other side because what extreme on the other side because what you're going to do is you're going to you're going to do is you're going to you're going to do is you're going to keep pissing off the middle and they're keep pissing off the middle and they're keep pissing off the middle and they're going to keep bouncing back and forth. going to keep bouncing back and forth. going to keep bouncing back and forth. And round after round, we've been doing And round after round, we've been doing And round after round, we've been doing that now um for years in the United that now um for years in the United that now um for years in the United States. And what does it look like? It States. And what does it look like? It States. And what does it look like? It keeps getting worse. keeps getting keeps getting worse. keeps getting keeps getting worse. keeps getting worse. worse. worse. >> What are you suggesting the solution is? >> What are you suggesting the solution is? >> What are you suggesting the solution is? Vote for the centrist candidate Vote for the centrist candidate Vote for the centrist candidate >> all the way through. Yes. Yes. It's a >> all the way through. Yes. Yes. It's a >> all the way through. Yes. Yes. It's a very simple thing, but it's not going to very simple thing, but it's not going to very simple thing, but it's not going to happen unless we talk about this because happen unless we talk about this because happen unless we talk about this because it does mean that sometimes the centrist it does mean that sometimes the centrist it does mean that sometimes the centrist candidate is the person, the woman on candidate is the person, the woman on candidate is the person, the woman on the other side. And if we're not willing the other side. And if we're not willing the other side. And if we're not willing to do that, then we're really condemning to do that, then we're really condemning to do that, then we're really condemning ourselves to this cycle. I'm going to ourselves to this cycle. I'm going to ourselves to this cycle. I'm going to explain more about it. It's it's a explain more about it. It's it's a explain more about it. It's it's a version of the escalation trap gone version of the escalation trap gone version of the escalation trap gone domestic. It's called the legitimacy domestic. It's called the legitimacy domestic. It's called the legitimacy shock cycle and I'll be talking more shock cycle and I'll be talking more shock cycle and I'll be talking more about this in September. So the trap I'm about this in September. So the trap I'm about this in September. So the trap I'm talking about here with violence and talking about here with violence and talking about here with violence and politics isn't just international and politics isn't just international and politics isn't just international and you end up with traps here domestically you end up with traps here domestically you end up with traps here domestically as well. And I'd like to close with a as well. And I'd like to close with a as well. And I'd like to close with a few thoughts for the people in Iran. I few thoughts for the people in Iran. I few thoughts for the people in Iran. I think ever since I've put myself think ever since I've put myself think ever since I've put myself mentally um in a situation where there mentally um in a situation where there mentally um in a situation where there was a world leader saying that they were was a world leader saying that they were was a world leader saying that they were going to annihilate my civilization and going to annihilate my civilization and going to annihilate my civilization and there was bombs going off. You know, there was bombs going off. You know, there was bombs going off. You know, we're currently filming this in our we're currently filming this in our we're currently filming this in our London studio, but if there was bombs London studio, but if there was bombs London studio, but if there was bombs going off around the studio and there going off around the studio and there going off around the studio and there was threat that someone was going to was threat that someone was going to was threat that someone was going to annihilate civilization, it's quite annihilate civilization, it's quite annihilate civilization, it's quite unthinkable for me how I would I would unthinkable for me how I would I would unthinkable for me how I would I would be functioning. And it immediately, I be functioning. And it immediately, I be functioning. And it immediately, I think, shines a light on the the mental think, shines a light on the the mental think, shines a light on the the mental health and psychology of the people in health and psychology of the people in health and psychology of the people in Iran right now and how they must be Iran right now and how they must be Iran right now and how they must be feeling. So, I think that's probably an feeling. So, I think that's probably an feeling. So, I think that's probably an important message to share cuz we can important message to share cuz we can important message to share cuz we can sometimes get a little bit caught up in sometimes get a little bit caught up in sometimes get a little bit caught up in the hypotheticals of war and strategy the hypotheticals of war and strategy the hypotheticals of war and strategy and all these kinds of things, but at and all these kinds of things, but at and all these kinds of things, but at the end of the day, there's 90 plus the end of the day, there's 90 plus the end of the day, there's 90 plus million people in Iran that are right in million people in Iran that are right in million people in Iran that are right in the middle of this and we we're sat in the middle of this and we we're sat in the middle of this and we we're sat in this very warm, cushy London studio. So, this very warm, cushy London studio. So, this very warm, cushy London studio. So, >> well, there's a bond that is occurring >> well, there's a bond that is occurring >> well, there's a bond that is occurring between the middle 60% of the American between the middle 60% of the American between the middle 60% of the American public and the 92 million in Iran. Yeah, public and the 92 million in Iran. Yeah, public and the 92 million in Iran. Yeah, >> they don't like the radicalism >> they don't like the radicalism >> they don't like the radicalism and on on either side. And what you were and on on either side. And what you were and on on either side. And what you were what you were vocalizing, Stephen, is what you were vocalizing, Stephen, is what you were vocalizing, Stephen, is the frustration that our politics has the frustration that our politics has the frustration that our politics has been locked up by the extremes. And I been locked up by the extremes. And I been locked up by the extremes. And I suspect the 92 million in Iran are suspect the 92 million in Iran are suspect the 92 million in Iran are feeling almost exactly the same thing. feeling almost exactly the same thing. feeling almost exactly the same thing. Their choices now are being locked into Their choices now are being locked into Their choices now are being locked into extremes. And that is that bond here extremes. And that is that bond here extremes. And that is that bond here that you're trying to vocalize. I that you're trying to vocalize. I that you're trying to vocalize. I believe it's valuable to vocalize it believe it's valuable to vocalize it believe it's valuable to vocalize it because this is what it means to empower because this is what it means to empower because this is what it means to empower the people and this is what it means to the people and this is what it means to the people and this is what it means to be a democracy which is that we actually be a democracy which is that we actually be a democracy which is that we actually talk about not just the other side is talk about not just the other side is talk about not just the other side is bad and we're always good is we we talk bad and we're always good is we we talk bad and we're always good is we we talk about where the future really should go about where the future really should go about where the future really should go and the idea that we're even imagining and the idea that we're even imagining and the idea that we're even imagining the possibility of a $40 trillion in the possibility of a $40 trillion in the possibility of a $40 trillion in debt country getting rocked by um Iran debt country getting rocked by um Iran debt country getting rocked by um Iran and Russia here who have their own and Russia here who have their own and Russia here who have their own reasons for wanting to hurt us. We may reasons for wanting to hurt us. We may reasons for wanting to hurt us. We may not fully realize that, but but we not fully realize that, but but we not fully realize that, but but we really hurt Russia in the '9s here with really hurt Russia in the '9s here with really hurt Russia in the '9s here with our ideas of shock therapy, and we made our ideas of shock therapy, and we made our ideas of shock therapy, and we made out like bandits, by the way. Uh so that out like bandits, by the way. Uh so that out like bandits, by the way. Uh so that the we we really do have some uh real the we we really do have some uh real the we we really do have some uh real growing bonds at the social level. growing bonds at the social level. growing bonds at the social level. >> Professor Robert P, thank you so much. >> Professor Robert P, thank you so much. >> Professor Robert P, thank you so much. It's a pleasure to speak to you once It's a pleasure to speak to you once It's a pleasure to speak to you once again. And uh this is such an evolving again. And uh this is such an evolving again. And uh this is such an evolving situation, so I feel like we might end situation, so I feel like we might end situation, so I feel like we might end up talking again at some point in the up talking again at some point in the up talking again at some point in the future when things play out. Hopefully, future when things play out. Hopefully, future when things play out. Hopefully, you know, one can only hope uh for peace you know, one can only hope uh for peace you know, one can only hope uh for peace for for everybody situation for for everybody situation for for everybody situation >> every day. That's my number one thing. >> every day. That's my number one thing. >> every day. That's my number one thing. Just ask my wife. And by the way, will Just ask my wife. And by the way, will Just ask my wife. And by the way, will you stop being so charismatic? Because you stop being so charismatic? Because you stop being so charismatic? Because my wife, when we listen to this, she my wife, when we listen to this, she my wife, when we listen to this, she turns my voice off. All she wants to do, turns my voice off. All she wants to do, turns my voice off. All she wants to do, Stephen, is listen to you. Stephen, is listen to you. Stephen, is listen to you. >> Is she American? I think Americans. >> Is she American? I think Americans. >> Is she American? I think Americans. >> I'm just You have And you've made me up >> I'm just You have And you've made me up >> I'm just You have And you've made me up my game. my game. my game. >> That's so funny. Well, thank you so much >> That's so funny. Well, thank you so much >> That's so funny. Well, thank you so much for your time and uh you've put a lot of for your time and uh you've put a lot of for your time and uh you've put a lot of time into explaining this to layman's time into explaining this to layman's time into explaining this to layman's like me and it's really helped turn the like me and it's really helped turn the like me and it's really helped turn the the lights on to some degree. I'll I'll the lights on to some degree. I'll I'll the lights on to some degree. I'll I'll be honest, it's turn the lights on and be honest, it's turn the lights on and be honest, it's turn the lights on and with the lights on I am with the lights on I am with the lights on I am confused. I'm confused about confused. I'm confused about confused. I'm confused about which path is which path is which path is productive and most beneficial to productive and most beneficial to productive and most beneficial to society and humanity. And even though I society and humanity. And even though I society and humanity. And even though I can see more clearly now about the can see more clearly now about the can see more clearly now about the dynamics of all of these potential dynamics of all of these potential dynamics of all of these potential pathways, none of them seem that great. pathways, none of them seem that great. pathways, none of them seem that great. So that's where I'm going to leave it So that's where I'm going to leave it So that's where I'm going to leave it for today. But we'll pick up this for today. But we'll pick up this for today. But we'll pick up this conversation again soon when more conversation again soon when more conversation again soon when more information comes in. information comes in. information comes in. >> That's right. And let's hope it's not as >> That's right. And let's hope it's not as >> That's right. And let's hope it's not as much as a trap as as I'm as I'm painting much as a trap as as I'm as I'm painting much as a trap as as I'm as I'm painting it. But if it is, then it's really even it. But if it is, then it's really even it. But if it is, then it's really even more important that when we get to the more important that when we get to the more important that when we get to the fall, we don't mislead ourselves into fall, we don't mislead ourselves into fall, we don't mislead ourselves into into thinking that this is just um into thinking that this is just um into thinking that this is just um temporary, that it's all going to be temporary, that it's all going to be temporary, that it's all going to be solved quickly. We need to understand solved quickly. We need to understand solved quickly. We need to understand that we're going down some major major that we're going down some major major that we're going down some major major roads here. And this situation, as bad roads here. And this situation, as bad roads here. And this situation, as bad as it is, notice that it's actually as it is, notice that it's actually as it is, notice that it's actually worse than it was a month ago when we worse than it was a month ago when we worse than it was a month ago when we were here. It's worse, Stephen. And the were here. It's worse, Stephen. And the were here. It's worse, Stephen. And the reason it's worse is we didn't head it reason it's worse is we didn't head it reason it's worse is we didn't head it off enough at the past 40 when we when I off enough at the past 40 when we when I off enough at the past 40 when we when I was here four weeks ago. If President was here four weeks ago. If President was here four weeks ago. If President Trump had taken some of the deals that Trump had taken some of the deals that Trump had taken some of the deals that we were talking about then we wouldn't we were talking about then we wouldn't we were talking about then we wouldn't be anywhere near where we are today. So be anywhere near where we are today. So be anywhere near where we are today. So as bad as that negotiating position I'm as bad as that negotiating position I'm as bad as that negotiating position I'm say of can militarily containment of of say of can militarily containment of of say of can militarily containment of of Israel I realize people are saying oh my Israel I realize people are saying oh my Israel I realize people are saying oh my god could never happen. Well think about god could never happen. Well think about god could never happen. Well think about the things that could never happen that the things that could never happen that the things that could never happen that are happening right now. This is the are happening right now. This is the are happening right now. This is the better pathway now. And if we don't take better pathway now. And if we don't take better pathway now. And if we don't take this pathway now, we come back in a this pathway now, we come back in a this pathway now, we come back in a month or two, it will be worse. month or two, it will be worse. month or two, it will be worse. >> Thank you, Robin. >> Thank you, Robin. >> Thank you, Robin. >> We're done. >> We're done. >> We're done. >> Thank you. >> Thank you. >> Thank you. >> Thank you so much. >> Thank you so much. >> Thank you so much. >> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm >> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm >> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm where they know exactly what video you where they know exactly what video you where they know exactly what video you would like to watch next based on AI and would like to watch next based on AI and would like to watch next based on AI and all of your viewing behavior. And the all of your viewing behavior. And the all of your viewing behavior. 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