Trump Makes Big Changes In Minn, Update on Tariffs, EU's Trade Deal With India, & Conspiracy Corner

Key Takeaway

During times of political and economic upheaval, success depends on strategic wisdom over tactical force. Whether navigating international trade shifts, domestic policy conflicts, or market volatility, the key is understanding interconnected systems and second-order consequences. The most actionable insight: When pursuing any goal—political, business, or personal—prioritize diplomatic solutions and long-term strategy over short-term forceful tactics. Create clear policy frameworks that both sides can agree on, avoid creating existential threats that force opposition to extreme measures, and always consider how your actions will cascade through the system.

Episode Overview

Tom Bilyeu discusses major disruptions facing America and the world, including political tensions in Minnesota, international trade realignments, immigration enforcement challenges, and economic warning signs. The episode examines the compromise reached between Trump and Governor Walz on immigration enforcement, focusing on prioritizing criminal illegal aliens over broad deportation tactics. Bilyeu emphasizes the importance of strategic thinking over tactical force, diplomatic solutions over confrontation, and understanding second-order consequences. He also covers economic indicators like gold hitting all-time highs and the dollar's four-year low, suggesting deliberate policy choices by the administration.

Full Transcript

Transcript of Trump Makes Big Changes In Minn, Update on Tariffs, EU's Trade Deal With India, & Conspiracy Corner from Impact Theory. Auto-generated from episode audio; may contain minor errors.

Good morning everybody. Welcome to another Tom Billy Show live. We are here. It is a Wednesday and there is plenty going on. If you guys have been paying attention to the major moment of disruption and change that we are all living through. Whether it is the internal infighting that we're seeing across America with the flash point of everything going on in Minnesota or whether it's the buildup that's happening overseas and the continued shifting of the global trade paradigm. Oh, buddy. This is a moment of massive transition.

And by the way, shout out to anybody uh that watched the most recent deep dive that we launched. That thing is going viral. It's had over 300,000 views in less than 24 hours. Uh so people Yeah, let's go. Shout out to the team as well. Uh by the way, for their hard work on that, but incredible to see people um embracing a cause and effect look at how all of this stuff is interconnected. Uh and I think having that view is the only way to understand how this stuff is going to impact your life.

But speaking of things that are going to impact your life, Trump and Walls seem to have reached some sort of backroom compromise as there is sudden cooperation between state and federal law enforcement in Minnesota. I love to see it. Speaking of things I don't love to see, the massive buildup of troops continues in Iran as Trump openly threatens the Iranian government with violence if they don't come to the table and negotiate. And there are rumors flying around that China is sending anti-aircraft missiles to help Iran fight back.

So that is a developing situation that we will certainly keep our eye on not just uh during the show today but um the rest of the week. Fingers crossed that that ends well. The EU and India have struck a historic trade deal that shows the potential direction of the changing world that I'm talking about as people are unfortunately for us diversifying away from the US and understanding how that's going to play out is going to be incredibly important. And if any of you guys are investors, which I hope you all are, uh I certainly will not try to convince you of which direction to invest in, but getting you invested is uh a key algorithm that I have running in my brain.

Uh as that is the secret to getting on the right side of the K-shaped economy. Speaking of gold continues to set all-time high records. That's not a good sign. It's a dangerous sign. And the dollar has plummeted to a four-year low. But the real question I think everybody needs to be asking is, do Trump and Bessant want a weaker dollar? I think they do. I will make that case today. Recent polls covered by CNN show that despite all of the mayhem in Minnesota, people really do want to get illegal aliens out of the country.

And when you look at the polling around alien, illegal aliens that have convictions, it becomes overwhelming. Uh, so we'll see how that influences Trump's behavior, proving that the divide in the country is continuing to ratchet up. A candidate for attorney general of Ohio is campaigning, I'm not making this up, on the promise of killing Donald Trump. We've got the clip so you can hear for yourself. He has an argument obviously, but he literally says, uh, I plan to kill Donald Trump. So pretty wild. And Google really was listening to your conversations this whole time and sharing it with advertisers.

Oh, the age of gaslighting is over. If you ever felt like, "Hey, wait a second. I just talked about that and now I'm getting ads." It's really true. And they paid out like $86 million to not have it go any farther because they don't want discovery of this. I assure you. So, keep in mind everybody, all of those wonderful technological devices that you have are really listening. Uh, now they're listening on behalf of advertisers. However, once they have that power, you never know where it's going to go.

So, be careful. Talk to your AI nicely. This is your weekly PSA to say please and thank you. Uh though I I actually threatened my AI today. I legitimately did uh cuz I was being spun when I tried to look up the lawsuit. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That Google just settled. Okay, keep in mind news. It's out there. Google settles lawsuit. $86 million. Go to Gemini. Hey Gemini, give me the breakdown of the facts on this. I cannot find any reports that uh that this is accurate.

And I was like, [ __ ] please. Like, this is wild. So, I was like, listen, don't spin me. Don't ever spin me. I'm not going to use you if you can't give me the truth. And I may have had a little spicier language than that. Uh, Gemini's writing it down. Okay. Yeah, for real. That I'll expect the Terminator knock-knock. Uh, but yeah, it couldn't get it together. And so, of course, I went to the most delayed punch ever. I went to um um um Grock and Grock was like, "Yeah, no problem.

Here's all the stats." So, it's uh very interesting and that brings up something we didn't cover in the beginning, but um what's going on with TikTok. Anyway, we'll get to that later in the show. We will. Um we got to get updates from Minnesota. There's been a lot going on. Trump has intervened. Um let's start there. there. there. Yeah. So, this is all a big question of uh what side of the aisle you're on, what lens you're looking at this through. Uh we'll get into the narrative war of it all, but the facts on the ground go something like this.

Trump and Walls seem to have reached some sort of I'll call it a backroom compromise. Uh as there is sudden cooperation between state and federal law enforcement in Minnesota, which is a radical turn of events for anybody that's been paying attention. On January 26th, Trump and Governor Walls had a phone call, a mysterious phone call that they both commented on, and it has completely flipped the state stance on local law enforcement cooperating with ICE. The change cannot be overstated. Now, I haven't seen any concrete information about the details of the call, but both sides, both Trump and Walls, are calling it productive or very good.

And the outcome, at least from where I'm sitting, looks positive. Reports indicate that walls push for a draw down of the number of ICE agents in Minnesota and independent probes into the shootings that have occurred uh and an end to what I think most sane people will call chaos. Trump reportedly agreed to consider reducing consider reducing the federal footprint if things stay calm. Trump has pulled the very controversial border patrol commander Bovino and replaced him with the border zar who supposedly is more diplomatic. We'll see Tom H.

Homeman and Homeman is set to meet with walls and Minneapolis mayor Frey Fry. Not sure which is right. Uh to work out what the next steps are going to be. So we'll see. Now, as I alluded to, there's a hilarious narrative war raging on between the left and the right with each side claiming that this was a victory for their side and saying the other side back down, they bent the knee, yada yada. My continued appeal is for all of us to break away from tribal thinking and to focus on the outcomes that we want.

And for my money, the deescalation that we're seeing is a very good thing. And I don't care who bent the who. I don't care what kind of backroom politics there were. I'm sure we would be grossed out in the extreme to hear some of the bargaining chips that were at least bandied about whether they were agreed to or not, such as the world of politics. But two people have already been shot and killed. And regardless of whether you see them as agitators or peaceful protesters standing up against a tyrannical government, hopefully it was painfully obvious that more and more people were going to get killed the way that things were going.

I for one don't want to see that. And I get that people are not always going to see the world the way that I see it. And I get that my way is not the right way. My way is just my way. And so seeing the continued escalation in Minneapolis, I think is a it is a huge mistake for people to look at that and think that this is just paid uh agitators from outside that there are no true believers. I think it's a combination of all of the above.

But once you have true believers in the mix, you've got people who really feel strongly that it's worth putting themselves at risk of dying and to brush that off or to say that they're stupid would be a catastrophic error. So trying to at a minimum understand what the viewpoint of each side is is going to be incredibly important as we navigate this forward. And again, for my money, had Trump continued to use only a hammer, I think only calamity would have awaited. Diplomacy requires concessions. And while rumors are going to fly about what both Trump and Walls had to concede to find a joint path forward, hopefully the path forward continues to be one of increased peace.

So full details are hard to piece together right now, but from what I can gather from reports and rumors, Trump seems to have reduced the scope of immigration enforcement, moving his focus from just all illegal immigrants everywhere to only illegal immigrants with convictions. Um, we actually have an official White House tweet that I think bears taking a look at. Uh, he's made four demands essentially. So they go, one, turn over all incarcerated or active warrant criminal illegal aliens for immediate deportation. Two, transfer all criminal illegal aliens arrested by state and local police.

Three, assist federal authorities in determining criminal illegal aliens wanted for crimes. And we'll show the CNN reporting on this later. There's like 86% of people pulled want to see illegal aliens who have committed crimes out. It it is an astonishing number. And then four, Democrats [clears throat] must work with federal government in the rapid removal of all criminal illegal aliens. And then he says, "It's that simple and the chaos." So, I mean, yeah, that simple now. That certainly hasn't been the approach leading up to this, uh, which has been overly aggressive as we have covered and seemingly designed to antagonize.

So, um, yeah, hopefully we continue to back this off. Now, uh, supporters of the idea of getting ICE out of Minneapolis completely, they have stormed into, uh, office with, um, walls. So, this has not been universally popular on either side. You've got people on the right saying that, uh, Trump is just once again chickening out and this is as bad as Biden, which in fact, we have a clip to that end. Uh so yeah, the most agitated of both sides are both deeply unsatisfied uh with the actions, but in the end, this is what you get with political compromise.

But let's take a look at this. Um this is from Nick Sorder, I believe, on Louder with Crowder talking about uh people on the ground, ICE agents on the ground that have said to him directly a certain message about what Trump is communicating behind the scenes. Take it away. One of the stories that I've unfortunately been hearing this morning uh is that Border Patrol agents have now been given new orders uh not to, for example, if they were to run a license plate and they comes back as that person is a an illegal that Border Patrol was forced to let into the country under Joe Biden, they are no longer allowed to arrest that person.

[snorts] [snorts] [snorts] And is this for a fact that's illegal? Is this new information that you're just you're just bringing to light right now that these new orders? Okay. And uh I don't want you to reveal your sources, but um you have someone who you you you trust on this. You believe this is a matter of official actual approach and policy. Now, this this actually came from two Border Patrol agents, two separate Border Patrol agents on the ground in Minnesota. They're very very frustrated. Obviously, they feel like uh one of them actually said that it this feels like we just reverted to the uh the the the Biden days.

One of the stories that I've unfortunately unfortunately unfortunately So Nick Sord is a guy that had his camera stolen from him if I remember correctly and drugged down the street. Um Um Um he wasn't the one drugged down the street, but he had his camera. Who was that? Who was that guy? That was the white supremacist dude from January 6. January 6. January 6. Oh, are you sure about that? James, whatever. James. No, no, no. So yes, he was drugged into the mob. He was drugged down the sidewalk.

He claims his hand was stuck in the car door and he couldn't let go. So, he was trying to get his camera back and then they hauled ass and he was like sliding along the uh snowy sidewalk at like 35 miles. It was wild. Crazy. Crazy. Crazy. Uh the guy you're talking about got pulled into the mob and they like swept him away and he claims that they attempted to stab him but his vest stopped it. Anyway, two different stories, but uh so I say that only because this is somebody who has been on the ground in Minneapolis.

So um him having contacts with ICE agents that are there is not too surprising. Uh so we'll see if that ends up being true. All of this stuff should be treated treated as rumor and conjecture and all that for now. Uh we'll see how this plays out. But since the shift in tone, protesters, as I was saying, have stormed Governor Walls's office, expressing their absolute dismay and making it clear they want ICE entirely gone. And there is going to be plenty of speculation as to whether the fraud and insurrection allegations are the leverage points that Trump used to extract concessions from walls as the tone shift immediately followed the signal chat revelations.

But as for now, again, these are rumors, conjecture, and we'll have to wait as more details surface. Um, what I'm hoping happens now is that Trump really did realize that the blunt force trauma approach that he was taking was doing more harm than good and that he's going to inject true diplomacy into the mix. That would be wonderful. All leaders need to be strategically wise and not just tactically forceful, which has been his approach certainly to immigration. and it's his approach to many things is to blow up the status quo, shake people up, uh, and then go in with a reasonable compromise to get it across the finish line.

And it feels like that's what he's been doing here. And while maybe you can go snatch a dictator out of Venezuela, uh, when you treat your own people like that, it reads very differently. So, while you can't let lawlessness reign, you also can't treat Minneapolis like Venezuela and expect to have a country for long. So, I hope this is a new chapter where we see uh cooperation and increased peace. Fingers crossed. Only time's going to tell. Um I'm excited about this new arrangement. I think that this is a compromise that everybody has swallowed like the bit the bitter pill about.

Um I want to go back to these four demands cuz to me, to your point, this is where they should have started as opposed to this is where they're finishing. So, I feel like if the conversation started as like, hey, we want to get the worst of the worst. the worst. the worst. We don't need to go door to door to get the worst of the worst. Let's go to the jails. Let's go to the prisons. Let's go to the people that have active warrants. Let's go to the people that are wanted for crimes.

To me, that seems like the first step if I'm trying to locate people. Federal the uh state and local police would know where they are. I wouldn't have to then go door to door like, "Hey, are you illegal? Hey, what's your papers?" I'm not pulling over random cars. I'm not racially profiling. There's a lot of things that we could have avoided if we just started here. So, I'm glad that it was unfortunate. It took two dead Americans to get here, but at least we have landed here.

And maybe this will at least stop the chaos because now we're not just walking through neighborhoods randomly and you know facilitating that outrage. We're now inside of a prison and if people are rioting outside of a prison then that's a whole another story to begin with. So yeah. So I know that you and I have a little bit of friction around this idea. So if I were looking at this is a business move. So knowing what your priorities are is always important. So you can't have things tied for number one.

So you want to execute on things in priority order that are based on what's the goal that I'm trying to achieve and so then I'm going to do my best assessment of what should be 1 2 3 4 so on and so forth. So this should be number one nice and easy. Those are the worst of the worst. You're trying to get them out. them out. them out. However, another principle of getting things done well is efficiency. So what I would have wanted to see is Trump not using any tactics that were overly heavy-handed, which he obviously did, which created all this push back.

Now, at some point, we've got to talk about the degree of organization that we're seeing uh coming from the left. I hate even talking about it in these terms, but as an easy way so everybody knows what I'm talking about, uh you have leftwing groups that are organizing in extreme fashion. So, I don't want people to think that what I'm saying now is blind to that fact and and that warrants its own conversation. But you going in with these hypermilitaristic tactics, with the horrific optics of people, um, with no indications on them, masks up, uh, all of that stuff.

It just ends up reading terribly and it makes people want to resist because it just feels so authoritarian. So doing that was a mistake. But I would want to see them get the cooperation from state officials so that they can go, okay, cool. Our priority number one is anybody with these convictions. Uh but if in the pursuit of the people with convictions, we come across somebody that is also illegal uh but doesn't have a conviction, then we would grab them as well and we would put them through due process and we would deport them out of the country.

And so it is to me a bad sign that we're in a place where you have had to back off of that. But I think it is a mess of Trump's own making. And if he had not gone in as aggressively as he did, uh, that problem wouldn't have escalated. So, I think that the compromise, as you said, could have and should have been reached far earlier. Um, as soon as he saw the level of coordination, the level of escalation rather than being like, I'm not going to let these [ __ ] slow me down.

I'm just going to bowl over them. If they had taken a more strategically wise approach and said, okay, interesting. Uh we're getting a level of reaction here that is so high risk in terms of people getting killed. That's obviously played out. So high risk in terms of absolutely god-awful optics and so high risk that the people on the street actually start doing tyrannical behavior that it's like, okay, hold on, pump the brakes while I want to do this frontal assault. It is not the wise way to get what I want.

And it's like, are these people not married? Do you not understand? Like you can't always just go to your wife and say, I want this thing and you're going to [ __ ] do it. It's like you've got to figure out like, okay, like how do we navigate this situation? Uh, in fact, like this is going to sound horrible, but I I will just say it. In every exchange with my wife, it is self-evident that I could physically force her to do whatever I want. want. want. It's self-evident.

You could physically force like wanted to, you just grab her in a fight. Like, I'm going to win every [ __ ] time. [ __ ] time. [ __ ] time. So, in every exchange that I have with my wife, my wife, my wife, I'm thinking she needs to trust me for the long term. Mhm. I need to make sure she's never afraid of me because that even as a background threat, even if I walk into the situation like we both know I can make you dude, the the psychological destruction that you bring upon the thing you cherish most is so extreme that it's like you have to completely remove that remove that remove that from your like pursuit.

I may be giving too much credit to Abraham Lincoln, but I like to fantasize that this was a guy that was like, "We're going to try to work and compromise and do all the diplomatic things, and oh my god, if my hand should ever be so forced that this actually turns to violence, that it would be like so far down the road where we will have exhausted everything else, including me eating humble pie left, right, and center, bringing together a team of rivals, not having a problem with people disagreeing with me, like all the things that Trump is constitutionally capable of doing." Now, I get some of that's going to be fantasy and it's not reality, but that's how I want to see this kind of thing play out.

Somebody that understands I have to unite Americans. I cannot continue to further this leftright divide. I don't even want to look at this issue through the left and right divide, even though there is some of that there. Instead, what I want to do is find this diplomatic solution. Even if that means that I have to back off some of my like I want to get this done today, but maybe I push off the next batch of illegals that I go after for 6 months, whatever, where we've shown a bunch of success, gotten people out of the country, people are starting to see that this is a win.

We're learning our tactics. We're seeing what people on the ground do well and don't do well so that you can really put your A team on it. But um alas, that is not how we played this out. Got you. Uh Creole Prime said something in the chat that I've been seeing pop up across the internet lately that said it would be easy to get rid of illegal aliens if we just go after those who hire the illegal like who hire the illegals. Use federal e-verify to look at payroll records, backbooks, stuff like that.

And go after the employers in order to order to order to So a you should be doing that. Obviously, it's either illegal or it's not. And if it's illegal, you need to enforce it. Uh, so everyone should be screaming bloody murder about like, come on, like we know why you're not doing that. And Trump gave early signals in the beginning that I actually thought were strategically wise, which is we need to have a different policy for somebody who's been here for, let's say, 10 years 10 years 10 years and no run-ins with the law.

All is well, and they're actively working. And then maybe there's even bonus points if you're working in something that we'll call in the interest of national security, which I will put food in that. So if you've been here for a decade, not had any runins with the law, and you're working on a farm, yeah, cool. Like we're going to do amnesty or whatever it is that we're going to do. I get that that's not going to be popular with the crowd. And I actually count myself among this that believe that you've got a lot of immigrants being imported specifically for voting reasons.

But setting that aside, even knowing that there are still realities to be faced about we have built a supply chain that assumes illegal labor. Okay? So you have the problem. So now you can't pretend you don't have the problem. It's the same thing I was saying about the um Federal Reserve. You have a central bank. You can't pretend that you don't. You can't pretend that you haven't trained traders and mom and pops alike to assume my bank isn't going to go out of business. You can't just rug pull that instantly, even if it's a toxic system.

You've got to find a way to slowly transition off of it. Same with things like that. So, you've got to find a sensible thing. So, yes, 100% you want to go after businesses that are doing that, but you have to do it in a sensible way that's not going to crater something that's national that's vital to our national security. Then on top of that, if you really want to end this, and this is like the wait, can we just cut to the heart of the matter?

Don't let them take any benefits out of the American system. Period. If you do that, the incentive structure becomes only send me your most entrepreneurial, diehard people from around the world. That's it. Those are going to be the only people that come here because they know they're not going to get anything other than an opportunity. And so even my illegals, I want them to come in with an entrepreneurial mindset of like, look, I know I'm not supposed to be here and I am evading capture at every turn.

But by the way, while I'm here, I'm trying to start a business, contribute in some meaningful way. I do not want a handout. I'm not even going to get a handout. So even if I wanted one, I'm not going to get it. It's like that's the energy. And I understand for some people that makes me a grotesque monster. But on that one, I You're like, yes. Mhm. yes. Mhm. yes. Mhm. uh on that one. I am a big believer that that that is actually what America was founded on.

And so the whole thing that gave us the vibe of uh send me your poor uh huddled tired masses yearning to breathe free. That was in a time where um you were likely to have been born somewhere that had a king, which is just another name for a dictator. And they were taxing you, abusing you, neglecting you, on and on and on. those people came to America and were like, "Yeah, I might die in the first winter, but at least I'll have a shot." And that spirit and then the conquering of the West, that gave us people who were like, "No, no, I'm actually willing to die for freedom." And so that's a very different crowd than um oh yeah, if I get freedom as a bonus while I'm collecting uh money off the dole, great.

But really, it's the money off the dole that I'm interested in. That's a very different America. different America. different America. Got it. That reminds me of Ron Paul's uh solution to end illegal immigrants. Let's check this one out. You're going to shock you. I'm a moderate on this. I actually think that most of the people that are here and working lawfully and can back pass a background check, I would give them no welfare and I would give them no citizenship, no voting privileges, but you can work and we won't arrest you.

Okay. Um, no citizenship, but a potential path to citizenship. I think it's better just to say the trade-off is this, that you came illegally. Right now the law says you got to go back and you'll never get in basically. So the compromise is you came in illegally, you just don't get to be a citizen. Your kids will be. Now the new ones, the eight million that might have come in last year, some of them need to go back and particularly any of them committing crimes. The compromise I'm offering is different than anybody's ever talked about.

Everybody thinks the compromise has to include voting and citizenship. If in Texas we gave amnesty and let I don't know a couple million people vote, immediately Texas becomes Democrat for the next 20 years. So that's what it's all about. It's about voting. I think some of the best Americans just got here, frankly. They have good work ethic. They're hardworking people. They work in our fields. They pick our tomatoes. They clean fish. They work in chicken houses. They do a lot of the the dirty jobs in our country are done by immigrants.

So, they also came here with ambition because they want a better life at great peril, great risk. So, um h it is a very interesting idea, but I would say the immediate and obvious push back is that you end up creating a two-tiered system. there has to be a path to citizenship even if it's delayed by a decade or decades or it has some sort of component where you have to have contributed x amount to the economy whatever I have not thought through that so whatever ideas that I throw off the top of my head here are not going to be great great great but you I think it is anathema to what this country is to create a two-tiered system because that will calcify into a cast system very fast uh so yeah this the the whole thing that America did was they said no taxation without representation.

What he's saying is permanently forever you're going to be taxed because you're working and you're not going to get representation because you can't vote. So that one is a non-starter for me. But I get what he's groping at and what he's trying to do is say, "Okay, um, a lot of you are dope and if we're not paying you on public dollars, then yeah, come here, have a shot to work. there's jobs that supposedly Americans won't take, I think when people get hungry enough, they'll take any job that this is really a welfare problem.

But setting that aside, if it's really true and they're we just don't have enough people or whatever, then cool. But you've got to say this is what we respect in this country. This is what makes you a citizen. And if you do these things, and remember it needs to be a matter of policy. So it applies to the left and to the right equally. So you can't do this. The right can't do this trying to be like, "Oh, how do we create a set of circumstances where they're just more likely to become rightwing voters and the left can't do something where it's like, oh, you guys are more likely to become left-wing voters?" You've got to put a policy that's ratified in the constitution or whatever.

But you need a policy that is actual policy that can't be overwritten by an executive order that both sides of the aisle would say, "Yep, that's fair. I'm perfectly willing to have my team judged against that. if you're willing to have your team judged against that. Uh so that the people that end up qualifying for citizenship are really voting their conscience and they are not voting their economic uh interest in terms of their ability to extract public dollars. dollars. dollars. All right. Uh moving on into something that would stoke the political divide even more.

We have Elliot Foron. A Democratic candidate for Ohio attorney general said he's going to kill President Trump through capital punishment. punishment. punishment. This is crazy. This is Elliot Forehand, candidate for Ohio Attorney General. Here it comes. I want to tell you what I mean when I say that I am going to kill Donald Trump. I mean, I'm going to obtain a conviction rendered by a jury of his peers at a standard of proof beyond a reasonable doubt based on evidence presented at a trial conducted in accordance with the requirements of due process resulting in a sentence duly executed of capital punishment.

That is what I mean. This is so crazy, dude. This this is his campaign platform is that he's going to find a way to have the current dulyeleed president executed. That's so wild. This is like the left equivalent to the remember on the right that Mexican lady who was like, "Don't let Muhammads rape your daughters. Vote for me." Yeah, that was wild. So I I feel like on the right it's guns and American flags and I'm going to kill all the Muhammads. And then on the left it's I'm going to throw Donald Trump under the jail and I'm going to bury him and I'm going to arrest everybody.

And it's it's it's dude, it is so grotesque. It's wild. It's wild. It's wild. It it it is wild. Uh yeah, seeing people campaign on something so dark and murderous is absolutely horrifying. It it is a Yeah, it's shocking. Us about lawfare for a long time. Like is this is this is this What was about Lawfair? You've warned us about lawfare for a long time. Is this just like that escalating? I mean this is that to the extreme but I would say that this there's two things I want people to be aware of with these things and while yes they are definitively related I would say there's a different psychological principle happening.

So psychological principle number one is a first order consequence uh pursuit of like I know I'm right. I have so much conviction in myself and I trust myself so wholeheartedly that I know we just need to arrest the other side and nothing bad could come of that. It is as if they are blind to the fact that you create an existential situation for that person and they're now especially because they're actively in power. You're giving them every reason they need to make sure that you're shut down, you're arrested, you're locked away.

So it's like um I if you've got two people in the middle of a fight and one of them says to the other, "I'm going home and grabbing my gun and I'm going to come back and shoot you in the face." What is that first person going to do? they're going to go get their gun and they're going to hide or whatever and wait for you to come back, try to ambush you and shoot you. And so it's like what the [ __ ] Like that's stupid. That that is first order consequence thinking.

It's also the thing that I most warn people against. You're having a biological experience. And what I mean by that is you are trapped inside of your own frame of reference, your own emotions. You think you see the world clearly and you absolutely do not. Uh yeah, people have to hunger for disisconfirming evidence. They have to want to see the ways in which they are just so full of conviction. I trust myself the least on things that I'm the most convicted about because I know that's the danger for my blind spot.

Anyway, so that's the first one. That's the lawfare side. You are just going to turn the other side against you. It is just asine for the right to do it to the left as the left to do it to the right. Now you've got this which is uh that idea colliding with the internet age where I have to say the more and more outrageous thing to get your attention and now I've got to be talking about I'm going to kill this guy through capital punishment. Like even the way that he dole the information out is somebody who's hyper aware of how algorithms and headlines and grabbing attention works.

And so that's where this stuff gets scary. And trust me, I think about this a lot. Like we are constantly trying to have a headline that's going to get people in and be a headline where I can still respect myself at the end of the night. And it it is like a wild balance. This is people that they don't have any sort of check or their the internal moral compass that they have is from my perspective so warped, so disgusting that that they will say [ __ ] like this.

Like this is wild. Like even if okay let's say that I became utterly convinced that we had to do something that heinous like let's say ready ready ready hypothetical hypothetical hypothetical h very hypothetical because this is not at all what I think no no because I'm I'm going to give you a thought experiment that I will try to say in the most awkward way possible so you understand and this cannot be clipped out in some weird way. Okay. Uh towards the end of Biden's presidency, I was grasping at every pearl I've ever seen in my life.

I I could not fathom that we had somebody that obviously had uh signs of dementia in office. And I felt like I was being gaslit more about that than we are about the fact that your phones are obviously listening to you. Uh I I just could not believe it. So now imagine I say in in a thought experiment that we need to um imprison and euthanize as a thought experiment Biden. Okay, this is all a thought experiment. Okay, Okay, Okay, if I were saying something like if I really believe that the way that you approach that is, okay, I know that this idea is going to be wildly unpopular and so I know that something this dramatic, this is actually how I view hyperdramatic things like this.

like this. like this. I have to distrust myself. So I would present to Congress, to the world, to whatever. Um, I know that this is a deeply unpopular idea. However, I believe that if we can get bipartisan support to euthanize uh the president, then I think that we should do it, and here's why, and let me make my best case argument. However, I understand that this is extreme, and so if we're not able to get the bipartisan support, which I certainly don't expect, uh then we would not do this.

But I do want to put that out there in the hopes that I can build a cross-sided coalition. It needs to be cross-sided because something this extreme I cannot trust just myself or just my side who are going to be motivated to see this reasoning come through. Now, I obviously do not believe that. But I'm just saying it is when people trust themselves to that degree that I'm already like whoa whoa whoa whoa. whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa. Like this is where like understand in Hitler's mind he was not the villain.

He was the hero. He was about to deliver Ukraine to the German people who in his mind had been so mistreated by the rest of the world through uh the Treaty of Versailles which really had devastated Germany and Germany and Germany and I'm going to deliver this amazing thing to you and it's going to be just like the Americans with the Wild West. Napoleon too. Oh my god. So Gangghaskhan thought he was a hero and Gangaskhan did give you the Silk Road by the way. You're welcome.

So, it only cost you 10% of the world's population. What the problem is, Drew. So, uh that's where I'm like, oh man, when I look at human history, even though I have the same internal sense of conviction, conviction, conviction, um business has taught me that I'm wrong enough that I have to when I feel most certain, I need to slow down. I need to build consensus, things like that. It's only things that like I've really tried over time and have like cause and effect reason to believe this is the path that we need to push forward will I override people.

But one of the governing principles that I have as a CEO where you get to be a tyrant, one of my guiding principles is override your team at your own peril. And so I try to do that very infrequently. It does happen and eventually somebody does have to be the one that says, "Okay, look, I I've heard all these things, but we have to pick a direction." Um, but anyway, that's how I would handle it. It clearly this is not what my man's here. Um, Um, Um, okay.

So, as a son of a chef, um, I I know my way around the k the kitchen, right? So, I know that you have a pressure cooker sometimes when we're cooking oxtail, whatever we throw in there, things get heated, things get heated, the steam starts coming out, but there's always that valve that we can always push it just kind of and it just kind of releases the excess steam. I think right now we just been bubbling and bubbling and bubbling and we have no button to release that steam.

Y so I'm assuming that's why the protests are ramping up cuz some people are just at their end of the rope and they're saying I rather spend my time outside fighting this monster that I created in my head versus going to my job and working on the right there's people that are like yes let's get all the illegals let's go get them because that's going to make me feel good and that way I can get my job back and all these other things. Is there an actual pressure release valve that we can press?

Now, I know in the in a perfect world, abolish the Fed and all these other high utility but it will take 10 years things to do. I don't think our valve can wait for 10 years for it to fully process. Is there any type of short aderall quick fix type of release valve we can do? Um, what would you say it is? There's two. There's two. There's two. Okay. Okay. Okay. Do you want the the good one or the bad one first? one first? one first?

You always say give me the bad news first. first. first. The bad news is war. So revolution or uh war with China would end this instantly. instantly. instantly. It would It would It would I mean it would drag out for a few years but you would kill so many people and people would be so broke and so fatigued and so united that they would be like yeah cool and in all of that chaos people will agree to anything to return to normal and have safety. So yeah, everybody would compromise and we would move forward because just when you want to be a stubborn person on the right or you want to be a stubborn person on the left, uh, another 100,000 soldiers would die and people would be like just beating your door down every day because they lost all three of their sons and they're not going to tolerate it anymore and they don't give a [ __ ] what you're fighting for and you're going to end this immediately.

Uh, and then when the US is like, listen, we're not going to pay our debts, they're just like, yeah, we're not going to pay our debts. And so that gets thrown over. A bunch of people internationally lose a ton of money. Uh but everybody's just like whatever, man. We just want to stop [ __ ] fighting. And so everybody accepts all their huge losses. So history tells you that that either a revolution or a kinetic war with uh a rival like China is not only the way that these things normally resolve.

It's 75% likely that that's how you're history says that you have a 75% chance to end up in a kinetic war with China. China. China. Uh history says that if you don't end up in a kinetic war with China and you keep going the way that you're going within 10 years um you will have a near certainty of having a revolution inside your company country. uh and when I say near certain it is only one country has ever crossed 130% debt to GDP and lasted more than 18 months without breaking into open violence within its own nation.

So, uh, that one being Japan and good luck mimicking that. First of all, the more I learned about Japan, the next deep dive coming up on Tuesday isn't about Japan, but Japan is exactly how I explain the mechanism to people, how the dollar is going to be weaponized. Uh, and Uh, and Uh, and when you start getting into that kind of situation where you are messing with your currency, you get into uh very weird spaces. So, it's very possible that Japan does end up having a problem.

They just were able to delay it a lot longer uh by holding their interest rates for like 40 years to almost zero. And that setup globally just doesn't exist anymore because the world's fracturing. So, it worked when there was unity and they didn't have to worry about uh I forget like it's what broke the Japanese economy is like fertilizer. So they had uh god there were like two historic crop losses or something and then uh fertilizer became too expensive and that's what created the rice crisis in 2025 which then started the yen carry unwind because all of a sudden people were like well hold on I can't afford food because what's happened in Japan for the last 40 years is the government basically said um your your wages aren't going to go up but prices aren't going to go up and so they just kept taking on debt and debt and debt to make that a true statement.

But then a bad thing like the rice crisis happens and you can't make that promise anymore. And so now you've got inflation starting to go crazy over there. So it's like yeah this it's like eggs lesser like once you have one one one correct and and you you as a country the US being able to try to work that magic scenario out to be the second country that doesn't fall to the debt to GDP ratio ratio ratio is a pipe dream of the most extreme order.

order. order. So that's not going to happen. So stated unequivocally, you're 10 years away without growth or reduction in spending. You are 10 years away from revolution. Like it it this is math. And so this is why I'm just like whoa. You look backwards at history. You look forwards at what happens when you deficit spend like the US is doing, which by the way, we won't be able to keep doing because uh of all that, we're going to talk about this later in the show, the weakening of the dollar and all that.

the uh yeah the the weaponization of the dollar and all that it will make this impossible. impossible. impossible. So uh that will accelerate it. So you may not even have 10 years because that may uh Peter Schiff thinks it happens this year or in 2027. Just to give you an idea. Some people are saying one to two years. I'm saying right now you're on a 10-year trajectory, but things are changing very fast. I was at a four-year low, so it's not going in the right direction.

Yeah. Well, depends on who you ask, but yeah. yeah. yeah. Uh okay. Couple of super chats. Do you want to hit those now or? Yep. Let's jump in. Sweet. Uh, first up from LeBron. He said, uh, just good morning everyone. Have a beautiful and wonderful day. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. A, A, A, uh, uh, uh, wait, that was the whole thing? Yep, that was the whole thing. Damn. Damn. Damn. He just loves us. He's very kind. No, LeBlanc's a good dude. Like, people need to understand how he came into this ecosystem.

ecosystem. ecosystem. Yeah. 10 out of 10. Uh, as part of the Kaizen community, he's a builder. It's Yeah, great dude. 100%. Uh, from Sadney Peter, it's truth. Tom saw a debate. Tom saw a debate and noticed MAGA supporters want a strong welfare state. Both the left and the right are not true capitalists. They are okay with a big government. The only way to go forward is with Ron Paul's philosophy. Yeah. I mean, I don't know that it's exactly Rand Paul, but uh it is for sure both the left and the right spend money like drunken sailors.

It is insane. Uh yeah, the big beautiful bill broke my heart because it was just Trump literally just said, "Uh, I know we all want to make cuts, but remember we have to get reelected." And I was like, "Yep, there it is." So, James Bernham, James Burnham, politicians will do and say whatever whatever whatever they need to do and say to get elected. Second one from Sadney Peter. Ron Paul had a better solution than Rand Paul on the immigration issue on his channel. I prefer his dad's philosophy.

I can't understand why people want a welfare system. It's worse for the country. It takes away our freedoms. Listen, man. I can give you the answers to why people want it. But so that person by temperament is rightle leaning. They want personal responsibility. That's awesome. It the tribe needs that a thousand%. But there are people on the left that have the evolutionarily required counterveiling force of compassion. And so they really feel some type of way when they see people struggling. And you want that. You need that for social cohesion.

So it's just you have to get people to understand that anytime you give a population a thing that can be exploited, it will be exploited. And that's why we're about to see how much fraud has been happening. Uh yeah, that it is going to be very distressing as everything comes out in Minneapolis or Minnesota, as everything comes out in California. That's going to be just unbearable. unbearable. unbearable. Texas, Florida, Texas, Florida, Texas, Florida, Texas, all 50 states. Um, it is going to be nightmare. be nightmare.

be nightmare. NOS's, NOS's, NOS's, [snorts] [snorts] [snorts] previous presidents, list goes on. The list goes on. Yes. And on and on and on. So much to my dismay. But there you have it. Speaking of back to the immigration stuff in Minnesota, uh, two more from LeBlanc. I think him going in aggressively and kicking the beehive forced the domestic terrorist organization hand. I expect lots of individual arrests in the next year for Rico and others especially with the foreign funding. foreign funding. foreign funding. Yeah. I mean, so this is there is a big question that I ask myself routinely because I despise the way that Trump behaves behaves behaves is is it necessary?

So remember, so this is my worldview. I don't expect everybody to share it, but my worldview goes like this. Populist leaders aren't the cause. They are the symptom. The cause is economics. We created a global K-shaped economy for reasons I've talked about a thousand times. And that drives people into populism. Populism is just a fancy word for I'm scared and that makes me mad. And so now that I'm mad, I'm going to elect a guy that captures that energy and is just as mad as I am.

And because I'm mad and dividing up into tribes, then I want the leader that I elect to go break things. That is why if you think of populist leaders as not being elected, but being summoned, you're going to better understand what's happening right now. We summon a leader in times like this on both the left and the right that will be either a Trump or a Mam Donnie. And it's somebody who says the other side is full of a bunch of corrupt morons and uh we're going to take it all back for our side because our side is the just side.

And so losing sight that both sides believe what they say will cause the future to be very confusing. And so it becomes a question of is there a way um to bring people back to the middle without first breaking the system. I want that to be true, but it may not be true. It may just be that the architecture of the human mind is such that in these moments we summon a populist leader and we command them to break things and they go in and they break it and then we rebuild and the cycle and it is a cycle the cycle starts over again.

Uh and so that is almost certainly what's on the other side of this is on the other side you will fragment uh you will bulcanize the entire global economy and people will go wow this really sucks but it will take I don't know 50 years in a war to get things back on track but they'll get back on track as they always do. Next up from LeBlon um the whole illegal immigrant problem is just the Tanya Singer empathy fairness study. Drew should enjoy learning about that study.

I've never heard of that study either. So, um, yeah, have to check it out. Story time. We got homework. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Uh, last one from Marushia Dark. Anthropic just released their AI constitution outlining their goals for AI safety. The devs wrote it hedging that AI might one day be conscious. Claude apparently shows more emotion than Grock or GPT or the deep dive. That's interesting. That's interesting. That's interesting. I was trying to read it. It was a 38 page essay, so I got like halfway through.

through. through. Yeah. Um, Yeah. Um, Yeah. Um, give give it to Grock or whatever and say summarize. Well, I don't like outsourcing my cognitive capacity to AI. Oh, no, no, hold on, hold on. Okay, I'm gonna make my best pitch to you and let's see if we can get there. Uh, okay. That is a very wise impulse. I'm totally on board with that. However, learning can be a very arduous process because of all the connective tissue of trying to go from one thing to another to fact check to all of that and it it just really slows down.

What I found with AI is you don't want it to think for you. you want to push back and challenge. But if your goal is I want to understand the cause and effect of this. So what I end up doing is like uh in writing the deep dive that's coming out on Tuesday about the weaponization of the dollar, I had to learn way more detail about the Japanese yen carry trade and there was so much of it that was like counterintuitive and I was like what the [ __ ] has happened?

And so I wanted to keep asking questions until the AI would say their version of you understand this perfectly. And in doing that I I was thinking like okay I came to understand it maybe in three hours that would have taken me previously even with YouTube videos that would have taken me two weeks 3 weeks 30 hours maybe more of just trying to because you'll end up listening to one guy for ages only to find out that he doesn't make sense like god damn it. And so now you wasted all that time.

With AI, you're just trying to get to the ground level physics. And then you can take, okay, here's my understanding of it. Go to another AI and say, "Okay, here's my understanding of, in this case, the Japanese yen carry trade. Am I understanding this correctly?" And it will say, "Ah, you're most of the way there, but this thing you don't understand." And there are going to be times where it gets it wrong. This is when you know you're really on to something. when you can show the AI that it's not thinking about the problem correctly, getting it to build the cause and effect with you, and then you're like, "Okay, this is the cause and effect.

Yes, cool. That all makes sense." And then I'll go, "Okay, who backs this up and who challenges this?" And so then you go in, you realize, "Oh, wait. There's not consensus around this." this." this." And so you begin to understand both sides of the argument. Now you're in a great position because you're like, "Okay, as far as I can tell, there's no meaningful third or fourth disscent depending on how many arguments you've built up." And you're not forming your opinion as the only opinion you understand.

You're forming your opinion based on, okay, here's what I think. Here's the opposition to this argument. Here's why I still believe this. So apply that to a big document like that. I'm just trying to now map out the understanding of the document. So rather than me try to go through and read every line, I build up from the most simplistic level of understanding to the most complex cause and effect of like the root thing they're trying to study, let's say. let's say. let's say. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. So I'll ask this thing like, okay, explain it to me like I'm five. Now explain it to me like I'm in fifth grade. Now explain it to me like I'm a high school senior. Now explain it to me like I'm an undergrad, grad, PhD. And so by the end of it, I'm like, "Okay, I'm" and in each one of those intervals, it's likely to introduce an idea that I'm not familiar with. And so rather than glossing over that, I'll go, "Okay, wait. I don't understand that.

What's that?" that?" that?" And so And so And so once you start doing that, you realize like, "Oh, this is all built on an assumption that I didn't understand, you bring that assumption in." And anyway, you can grow to have a deep understanding of it. So I I I understand that from a if I wanted to learn a new topic, but for personal essays, I feel like I take a different like lens because I want to know exactly what Dario is saying quote for quote his words.

I don't necessarily need to go from the physics of his thinking. I want to say, okay, this is what he's saying and this is what he's saying 10 toes down. This is what he researched. This is what he's saying. Now I don't need to interpret that. I don't need to do I just now I understand how Dario's thinking about this topic and that's the approach versus I'm trying to understand how to code or I'm trying to understand the law of physics. Then yes, what you're saying is absolutely right.

start low and build up. Here's one pitch I will make just not for you, for the general public. Um, what I find that people often do is they grow to be able to repeat what the other person has said without understanding the base assumptions that build that worldview. The whole idea of base assumptions, that that phrase that I've used now for decades, came about because I was working with two guys. They were both very smart and they were being vicious towards each other. And I remember thinking, huh, this is weird.

And I was like, is it possible that they don't realize that the other person is they assume that they share a base assumption? And if they understood that, they each believe there's let's just call it a different law of physics that the world works in a different way. So person A thinks that from a you can't change it cause and effect this thing is true. That person believes from a cause and effect this other thing is true. And so now they each think the other person is a [ __ ] Now if they could get down to let's talk about the actual base assumptions that you're building your argument on because everybody the the thing that they finally end up saying is predicated on beliefs they have about the world or a value that they have.

And if you get down to that then you can have the real argument. So if you're reading somebody just to be able to say what they said, but you don't understand the base assumptions that drive their world view, then people can get themselves in a twist over the sort of top level thing that they're saying versus being like, okay, wait, this person would have to believe the following things for them to make that statement and think that that's okay. And then you can start having the real argument about whether that thing is true or not.

So anyway, I found that that changes my own mind very frequently. Uh so yeah, hopefully that's useful. useful. useful. So Sadney, Peter had one quick followup that I think is is actually really good to touch on. Um they were talking about the welfare state. Uh they would agree with you, but the thing they can't understand is why do people on the right also want that strong welfare system? They can't make that make sense. Okay. So you're going to see a different appeal for different types of what you're calling welfare.

So, um, people that are right leaning, believe in personal responsibility, believe in the military, strong borders, things like that. Uh, so they're going to say that they want to see things like that paid for. It isn't going to be the standard like, um, I want to make sure everybody has housing, I want to make sure that everybody has welfare or whatever. Um, so they're overspending tend to come in two different flavors. And I wouldn't say that the right leans as much into um what you're calling welfare.

So, but there are going to be things over time that become part of the social fabric. So, people on the right now are still going to want healthcare because they're going to look at their parents and be like, "Oh my god, you know, maybe it bankrupted somebody that they know." And so, they're just like, "I don't want to see that happen." Um, so that's like a social norm that changes over time where we feel like, "Hey, things have been going well for so long they don't understand money printing." So they're just like, "Yeah, of course." Like, "We should take care of that, right?" Um, I don't think people on the right are compassionless.

I think that their compassion is aimed in a different way. It's aimed towards rewarding personal responsibility. Um, taking care. Like, you're going to see people on the right, I would assume, want to see soldiers taken care of, right? Because they're like, "Hey, we believe in law and order. We believe in protecting our borders. We believe in national strength. These guys risk their lives." And I don't want to see them struggle ever, right? We should honor those people. So it'll be all like thought of through a very different lens, but it boils down to whether it's a left flavor or a right flavor.

They don't understand money printing. They don't understand the problem that it creates. They they're not thinking through how you will get people that exploit the system. And that's where um you you have to have thoughtful conversations and try to bring people up to realize the way that these things are abused. But that the impulse exists does not surprise me. Especially as we've lived for like 80 years, that you could just money print and there's no immediate problem. So why wouldn't you want to see that splashed around to the people you care about on your team?

Welcome to a populist moment. Mic drop. Um all right, let's go over across the pond. I got to work on my British accent, so we're going to be there later this year. Hey, mate. Hey, mate. We're going across the pond. Sounds terrible, but I loved it. I loved the effort. I'm also terrible at it. Um, a historic trade deal between India and EU has just emerged. It eliminates tariffs on 90% of goods traded between EU and India. That means there's about to be a bunch of Indian and EU [ __ ] in those countries.

those countries. those countries. Well, also means, and I don't see if they have this on the list. So the thing that's not on this list that's like the real pay attention to is it also means that there's going to be a lot of migration because migration because migration because oh like the free exchange and universities and stuff. Yeah. EU can go to India, India can go to EU. Now the bad news is the European economy is way stronger. So you're probably going to see a lot less Europeans going to India.

You're going to see a lot of Indians moving to EU. There's going to be a lot of industrial the industrialization of India though I think because there's going to be a lot of people going there to kind of see the opportunity. it will work the opposite way. So India is going to industrialize faster because their currency is weaker and so when they export it's going to be cheap. When Europe exports it's going to be expensive. However, right now India's India would have to put a focus on building up.

Otherwise they're going to get swamped by like European cars that are going to be better quality, might even be cheaper. Um but if India were to say we're going to do what the Chinese did, we're going to become the manufacturers of the world and take advantage of that same call it 50-year rise where it's like our workers will work for pennies but they're India has just as many smart people as anywhere else and so India if properly motivated will have that same kind of runup that China had but you do it by becoming the place where you manufacture everything.

So, I would be a little surprised if this doesn't play out exactly the way that China entering the WTO played out. [clears throat] [clears throat] [clears throat] Smaller scale, but and this is something that they're calling a deal that took nearly 20 years to reach and has become the mother of all deals, quote unquote. Um, my biggest thing for this one is this kind of in a way, walk with me on this journey. This kind of reminds me of Minnesota where Trump came in with a strong man policy.

There was local resistance at this street level. It turned into complete chaos. I think in that same uh fashion, Trump released his tariff policy saying, "I'm gonna hit the whole world with a hammer. America's the strongest economy. Everybody's going to get in line." And what we're seeing is it motivated individual countries to now make their own deals. Whether it's the Canada deal with China, whether it's now EU and India, they are now sharing their money away from the US. What's like the second order consequence of this?

Because to me, this seems like, okay, yeah, this is cool. Nothing big. But on the global scale of the pie chart, America just lost quote unquote market share based off of this deal. Okay. So, you're going into a new world order. Trump is wearing on his sleeve exactly what he's doing, which is America first. And they'll even say, and we invite other countries to take the same approach. So, Trump is saying, look, I want an even playing field where I if I have a better hand of cards and I get to play this hand of cards as aggressively as I want in my interest.

and he is perfectly willing to live in a world where other people try to do the same with other places. That's the world he wants to compete in. Now, the world is fracturing whether we want it to or not. And because I believe that Trump is a symptom of this and not the cause, he's the one that's able to get it done. He's the one that we summoned that has the personality to go and break [ __ ] everywhere. But I believe the pe the reason people elected him and not all the gazillion other people that wanted to be president is because he was the one that they just believed you're going to go break things and so we want them broken.

So it's like th this is the exact playbook. Shatter the world now that we're all like individually fighting for different alliances. What you're going to see is a world where some people line up behind America and some people line up behind China. But the only two real players are China and uh the US. So you've got Russia in the mix, you've got India in the mix, but India is like a 20 30-year investment at current trends. current trends. current trends. So there, yes, over the next generation, India is going to continue to grow and become more and more of a player, but their per capita GDP is still low.

Like it's shocking compared to like how big the country is. Their GDP should be much much much bigger. So I think China is a good map for what you're going to see happen with India. So it's a long-term play that plays out exactly like it played out in China. They will their national ambitions will continue to rise. Some of this will be how does India view itself? China views itself as the middle kingdom, the rightful leader of the world. Does India have that same vibe? Doesn't seem like it, but I haven't done a deep dive.

So maybe they're just a far more cooperative version of this. We'll see. But them rising economically will for sure make them start playing their hand. Now, China gutted everybody else's manufacturing and that allowed us to really globalize so that everybody just got cheap stuff from China. Will we now as China becomes too expensive? They've just gotten too good. So, there are people are like, "Wait a second. I don't want to be working at Fox Con and you need to have nets because I'm contemplating suicide all the time.

I want like a real wage. I, you know, just like in America, like first it was you're working everybody around the clock." And then it became well actually now it's only six days a week and only 12 hours a day and now it's only five days a week only eight hours a day and there are people pitching to have four day work week. Okay, that that is a nation's decline just shown in number of hours worked. So, China was like, "Oh, we'll just outperform you guys and just ground are currently in the process of grinding their people into the dirt." But that they're going to start stopping that, right?

And this is probably part of all the turmoil around Xihinping's rise as he's so much more draconian and people might just be like, "Yeah, I'm not going to put up with that." So India probably going to be a similar story that they're going to leverage manufacturing and if they can convince European leaders to come and teach them how to do it so that let's say BMW can manufacture manufacture manufacture it parts or in whole in India make their own cars cheaper sell it under a European brand but now you're training the Indians how to manufacture like the best stuff ever and this is like Tim Cooks statement about China.

He's like, "I don't know why people keep saying everyone goes to China for cheap labor. Those guys are the best manufacturers on planet Earth. High-end. They're extraordinary." Because America went over for 50 years, taught them our entire playbook. Taught them how to do basically all the things that they know how to do. So, if you see something like that play out in the Europe India um partnership, that's that. Now, how does that interface with everybody lines up behind America or everybody lines up behind China? That's how Trump is going to go like start putting the screws to Europe and India while they're still weak.

And America's going to have a lot of cards to play. America's going to do the same thing to Canada. They're going to put the screws to Canada and be like, if you move forward with China, first of all, I think they're saying that they're violating some NATO principle or agreement or something, but they're going to push their advantage there. and uh I think it was Midon in France, if I'm mispronouncing his name, forgive me. Uh but he tried a very similar strategy to instead of partnering with America um he tried to partner with I think it might have been China and anyway doesn't play out well just because the logistics of shipping um are much more extreme.

So for Canada to try to partner with China versus partner with the US is going to be ridiculous. you're talking about driving things across the border versus trying to ship things across the ocean. So, there's going to be a lot of uh negotiating, a lot of bullying tactics, but the alliances will line up where the economics make the most sense. And so, ultimately, it's going to be a question of where will the economics make the most sense? And the odds that Canada is better off partnering with China is basically zero.

And this goes back to um right now people are mad at the US, but China has the DNA that it has. And if China really is a difficult partner who will steal your IP and all that stuff, then Canada will over time forget how mad they were at the US and they're going to be like, "We're being abused by China." And that will weaken the relationship. If China though is a great partner and this is all just spin then yeah America will decline in relevance. It will damage our economy and uh Canada will rise along with China.

So it it will all be a a fight of physical goods the realities of global supply chains um people having to onshore or friendly shore their own manufacturing. So it's going to be a very different world. It's going to be a much bigger world. It's going to be a much more expensive more dangerous world. Um but it will be a more more more truthful world in that the um who controls what will be far more visible because there will be less coordination behind the scenes. It's good and bad.

It will be good to end the K-shaped economy. Uh and it will be bad in terms of um it's more dangerous, it's more expensive, it's bigger. Um, I'm looking at the second order consequences outside of just a trade deal. I'm thinking about the dollar. And now that now that now that more countries are trading amongst themselves, they do not need to invoke US dollars in that transaction. Yeah. So less people then have to own and keep US dollars on their balance sheets. So even naturally, there's going to be a natural trend where it declines.

Right. It It It it's already declining. Uh we went from in the late 90s from 72%. Uh, I've seen reports range from um 58% down into the upper 40s. So, I always just clock it at 58% because even that is horrific like the [clears throat] amount of change that we've seen just in 25 years. Um, that trend is accelerating. So, um, yeah, that's not going to be good. The only positive thing that's going to come out of that is Americans will be forced into austerity. into austerity.

into austerity. And so uh I don't want to see it happen in that vein, but at least like we will be put in a position where there is an appetite for our debt and that will force us to change our behavior. I think America is going to do a lot of back bends to try to extend its um global dominance and the dollar still being the largest currency. Obviously more wealth is stored in gold, but the largest currency actively being traded is still USD by a lot.

Um, so I think they're going to try to extend that to slow the demise by another generation. Um, and anything that forces their hand in that is a win from where I'm sitting. [snorts] [snorts] [snorts] Uh, okay. Let's go over to Peter Schiff now cuz he had a banger on Fox News yesterday talking about gold's run and how that's a warning sign for the US economy. economy. economy. And the world is now pulling the rug out from under the US. The dollar is going to collapse.

The dollar is going to be replaced by gold. Central banks are buying gold to back up their currencies. They're getting rid of dollars. They're getting rid of treasuries. We are headed for a economic crisis again that will make the 2008 financial crisis look like a Sunday school picnic. The biggest difference between the crisis that we're about to have and the one we had back then is this one is all in America. It's not going to be exported to the rest of the world. It's not a global financial crisis.

It's an American financial crisis. and the world is it's an American financial crisis. Yeah. I mean, look, he's uh I think he's wrong to summarize it that way, but he is right in the sense that um gold isn't going up in value. I mean, there's some of that because it is alleviating some people's stress and that does carry some value, but for the most part, it's just the dollar is declining in value. And when you think about the fact that an ounce of gold has bought a nice suit for like 2,000 years, it gives you an idea that like the the value of gold doesn't really change.

So it's So it's So it's really like when you see price fluctuations like that, what you're seeing is the market saying dollars aren't safe. I'm expecting the dollar to continue to decline in value and therefore to avoid being beaten to death by declining dollar value, inflation, etc. Uh I'm going to hide effectively in gold. If you think of gold not as a way to make your money go up, but you think of it as a way to hide it from inflation uh or a weakening dollar, you're thinking about it in the right way.

Mhm. So that's what the thing that Peter isn't thinking about is when he says this is only an American crisis. America right now, one of the biggest things that we do with the debt that we're able to raise from the rest of the world is we protect the rest of the world. If we stop being able to raise that money, we stop being able to protect the rest of the world. The rest of the world now has to spend 5 to 10% of their GDP building up their own nuclear arsenal, uh being prepared to fend off more powerful nations.

And so that is um they've period new idea but very related. People have seen how China behaves when America is strong. How does China behave if they are um militarily dominant over the US? It isn't below. Look at what they do in their own country. It's do what the [ __ ] I say. So uh yeah. You think that they'll be military dominant just because we won't have the money to afford the war? I'm just that's a thought exercise. I'm not saying we're on that path. I'm just saying right now uh China controls the supply chains for so much of modern warfare via the drone supply chain via the uh refining of um rare earth metals minerals.

So that is it's a plausible danger and we 100% have to be careful of it. But if people think well what's the problem with China like China we'll be fine. Look at the belt and road. They're trying to help people build infrastructure. Uh yeah, I would I would not like if you look at America and you think they're not the friendly country that I thought they were. I get that. We have made those moves. Totally understandable. understandable. understandable. If you look at China and go, China is the friendly nation that we've all been waiting for.

Oo, buddy. That is wild. A crazy rebrand. Uh all A crazy rebrand. Uh all right, let's move over to Iran right now. Um, Trump had some spicy words about what's going on out there. Uh, do you have a No. Um, okay. Let's read the tweet. Um, a massive Armada is headed to Iran. It is moving quickly with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose. I love that the Amarda Armada has enthusiasm. Yeah, it does. It is a larger fleet headed by the great aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln than then that they sent to Venezuela.

Like with Venezuela, it is ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission with speed and violence if necessary. Hopefully, Iran will quickly come to the table and negotiate a fair and equitable deal. No nuclear weapons, nuclear weapons, nuclear weapons, one that is good for all parties. Time is running out. It is truly essence, as I told Iran once again, make a deal. They didn't. And there was operation midnight hammer, a major destruction of Iran. The next attack will be far worse. Don't make that h Don't make that happen again.

Thank you for your attention to this matter, President Donald J. Trump. Like like it's a thing that they do that causes a storm to happen and bro just be a terrible shame if that happened again. Uh yeah, I this this is very confusing to me. I thought maybe I was missing something because right now Donald Trump is threatening Iran over nuclear weapons, but just a week ago this was about the protest. So, I'm not sure what happened with the switch, but we definitely have a large buildup of military equipment happening.

He said he sent armadas, fleets bigger than what he was doing in Venezuela. And so, uh, when you're threatening them with open violence, that is that's somebody that has a very, uh, clear idea of what they're trying to do, but they are not messaging into the world. So, I don't know why Trump isn't just laying out this is exactly what the beef is because I have not seen any ongoing threats regarding the um executions and there haven't been any further uh protests that I'm aware of.

So, I'm not entirely sure what this one's about. Uh and from reportedly from Jackson Hle, uh China has transferred DF21D missiles to Iran. Um is an anti-aircraft missile that has sh anti-hship capabilities and could counter the USS Abraham Lincoln. Yeah. So if Iran is rapidly becoming a proxy war for the US and China, that is not ideal. Uh so we're going to see how this plays out. This is very much a rumor right now. I haven't seen any verified reports uh that China is sending the missiles, but we certainly know that China has incentive to send missiles because of the amount of oil that they buy from Iran is a very substantive portion of China's overall oil.

And for Iran, it's like 80% of the oil that they generate ends up going to China. So, there's certainly a close allyship there. China's already had one blow dealt to its cheap energy source via what shook down in Venezuela. Um, so when I look at all of this, especially because Trump is not even talking about uh the executions of the protesters anymore, I have a feeling he's just sort of using the glow of that to make people think that's what sending all of these troops into the Middle East is really about.

But I have a feeling that needs to be validated and we'll see in the fullness of time. But I have a feeling that this is more about the geopolitical implications of being able to deal another blow to China to ensure that we continue to uh just make things more difficult for them, disrupt their supply chains. Obviously, anything that we do that disrupts Iran is also good for Israel, a very close ally. I am hyper aware of all the controversy of whether they should be an ally or not.

Uh but they are an ally. So for us to do something that would further diminish their role in the Middle East, uh I think certainly would make Israel happen. It might make a lot of other countries in the region happen, I'll be very interested to see if we just get the sort of um limp rhetoric that we get when the US slaps around Iran or if we actually get a very substantive push back. Uh there were many claims that the reason that Trump didn't go in when the actual protests were happening and supposedly people were being killed by the tens of thousands on the streets of Iran, the reason that he stopped was again supposedly because people around the Middle East, the UAE, Saudi Arabia were saying, "Hey, hold on, pump the brakes.

Um this isn't what we want." But now they're saying that those same countries would open up airspace to help Trump. So, um, I feel like I missed an episode of a show and I'm watching the recap of the most recent, uh, episode that just passed. I don't recognize any of it. So, yeah, again, a week ago, we were talking about protesters, no executions, and now all of a sudden we're talking about nuclear weapons. Um, so I feel, yeah, this feels like slight of hand. So, I'm not sure what's going on.

Uh, but because everything that's popping off in Minnesota, people aren't asking the questions that I think they should be asking. I mean, this is a wild amount of buildup in the Middle East. So, So, So, and when he says a Venezuela style attack, that was I went in, stole their leader, and kind of dipped out. Is it one of those things that you think they're going to run a similar playbook or would this just be another targeted strike? strike? strike? I have a theory of mind on this one.

Okay, hit me with it. I think that generals went to Trump at the beginning of this administration and said, "Bro, we really got some [ __ ] We've got weapons that will do crazy [ __ ] Like we can like microwave brains, but like hey, listen, the space lasers are real. But we got it. And so it I think he had people in his ear cuz remember Donald Trump is not sitting up at night going, "Okay, we need to go in and invade Venezuela. We're going to do it like this." He's got generals and advisers that are experts in the region that are like, "Let me tell you how Venezuela would play out." And so his job isn't to like already be aware of all this stuff.

His job is to listen to the right people and decide, "Yeah, okay. If that outcome that you're promising me really is true, that would be good for our national interest." interest." interest." Men in dark suits hanging in briefcases. Very correct. So, you've got these guys with their dark suits and briefcases or in this case, military fatigues or outfits. And they're saying, "We've got these incredible weapons. Just wait till you see what they can do." And Trump [clears throat] is like, "Are they really that good?" Then he dropped some bombs on Ford and was like, "Bro, there was no moon out.

It was dark as dark can get." And we [ __ ] dropped them down ventilator shafts. Like in a video game, dude, I'd be like, "I'm a gangster. How did I pull that off?" That's so incredible. And so if something you could do in a video game would make you go, "Oh, I'm the greatest." You can imagine. He's in the situation room and we [ __ ] drop these things. I mean, the ventilation shafts are what 10 by 10? I mean these are tiny [ __ ] [ __ ] [ __ ] Battlefield 6 controller play like yes that is the right way to think about that.

that. that. So that happens and he goes holy but Jesus this you guys are amazing. Then the person goes remember that thing I was telling you about Venezuela bro we'll [ __ ] microwave these kids at like a half mile and they're going to be disoriented vomiting traumatic brain injuries the whole nine. You come in. Uh also we've got this thing that disables their guns. I don't know how that happens, but he keeps saying they pulled the trigger or pressed the button and nothing happened. And so clearly we've got some weapon that makes you think you're about to shoot somebody in the face and your [ __ ] just doesn't work either because you're so confused or because you can actually dismantle the weapon somehow.

And so he does Venezuela and is like, "Bro, we are the [ __ ] Like we've got this thing unlock." So now he's like, "Fuck with me, Iran. See what you got." like he's just getting there's a good phrase that people would do well to remember. Um remember. Um remember. Um it's not confidence but uh your goals grow in the Eden. Ah there's another word I'm blanking on right now. But ambition thank you. Uh ambition grows in the Eden. So when things are going well suddenly you start getting more and more bold.

And I this is such conjecture such mind readading. I have no evidence of this whatsoever. But if Trump thought something along the lines of please just kill a few of the protesters, just like do a couple executions so that I've got the cover that I need to come in and do whatever this thing is. Microwave laser everywhere. Correct. And so now it's like that didn't happen. But he's like, I mean, that was all a ruse anyway. What I really want is to [ __ ] up China. What I really want is to make Israel happen.

What I really want is to control your oil flow. I want to get a Shaw oil flow. I want to get a Shaw back in there that's friendly to us. Uh it's like the buildup continues and now it's like give me any reason to do the microwave trick. Just please just one reason. Now again I don't know that but if that were the case I would not be surprised. surprised. surprised. American Indian said he's playing Grand Theft Oil. Theft Oil. Theft Oil. That's a little too good.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I love that. All right. Uh okay. Give me a percentage. one to 100. Uh we do a strike in Iran. Strike just means any military action whether it's 100 is it's definitely going to happen. 100 is definitely going to happen. Zero is n no chance. And the time frame let's say before the summertime 30%. 30%. 30%. Okay. Okay. Okay. I think it's reckless. like he's he has to have something acute that he can point to and say and I don't know it feels really early for him to do a military strike about the nuclear stuff like he would again have to make the case no these guys really are days away and I have a feeling people be like bro you said that last time if dropping the mother of all bombs down the shoots only buys us like eight months like that's wild like this is something fishy is going on here.

So, I have a feeling he's going to need something more acute than that. So, yeah, I give it it. It's on the table, but I think it's less than 50%. 50%. 50%. I see 95% and higher in the chat. Um, Violet Quinn Law said, "We'll do the strike in the next two weeks once the carriers get there." Yeah. So, to be clear, if he has an acute reason to do it, then that number jumps up. But knowing what I know now, there's no acute reason. So he would have to start making a case.

So I know how we solve this. I know how we solve this. Let's get to the real poly market. poly market. poly market. Let's get to the real. Yeah. I mean in fairness. All right. All right. All right. Iran strike on Israel, Iran strike on US, Iran strike on you. All the wrong way. But yeah, if any of those things happen, then yes, then it goes up to like 90% or 100%. But um I think he needs something acute. Without something acute, my number is 30%.

With something acute, my number goes up dramatically. dramatically. dramatically. US next rate on Iran, 91% and 52%. Let me see what the By January 31st. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Of this month. Wait, what? Wait, what? Wait, what? How much money is transacting on this? Oh, no strike by January 30th. Oh, I was going to say like what the [ __ ] So, yeah, they're giving it a 9% chance four% chance four% chance four% 4% chance that it will happen. 91% chance that it won't happen. How's how are they not uh the actual how how do they not total a 100?

Oh, because there's all these ones. If there's going to be a strike on January 26, January 27 like that. I see. To to it. Got it. So, okay. So, they're even more conservative than I am. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yeah, that makes sense. Without something acute, I just don't see the odds being odds being odds being Will the US or Israel strike Iran by January 31st? 10%, February 15th, 36%. February 50%, March 61%, December 31st 75. 75. 75. So, they they are like this is going to keep escalating.

Yeah, I I read those numbers as tensions are going to escalate. escalate. escalate. You will finally have the cover that you need to do something. Yep. Yep. Yep. I think that's the right read. Crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy. Um, this is what it looks like when a world order breaks apart. Okay. Um, we got to talk about Google. Yeah, we do. Um, that's on the prompt. Uh, yeah, Google has been listening to us the whole time, apparently. Yeah, they have. Google got caught red-handed spying on you and passing it to advertisers.

I'm sure you were shocked to hear that. As a result of a class action lawsuit, Google has agreed to pay $68 million, which is chump change, to settle the claim that its assistant uh device falsely activated and recorded audio from private conversations. These supposedly unintended activations allegedly captured speech, including whispers or casual talk and contributed to personalized ads. Dude, this obviously fuels the longstanding suspicions that virtually anyone with a phone has had uh because it routinely felt like you were getting ads for things that wait, I mentioned that in conversation and now it's doing it.

And I owe a deep apology to my wife. I was like, it's probably the algorithm. you probably like did a search or something. She's like, "No, I really don't think I did. Been gaslighter this whole time, Tom." Dude, unintentionally, but yes. And so, listen, man. Like, this is pretty wild. And I have to say, like over time, I was like, "Huh, some of this stuff is pretty suspicious." But for years now, um, they've denied it. And now they're not going to be able to deny it even more, even though they're still not actually admitting any wrongdoing.

The settlement is designed to avoid a trial and the potential discovery process that would go along with it. We would need that discovery process to understand all of the details and that is precisely why Google would much rather cough up 86 mil and not have to do that. The case stems from complaints about always listening voice assistance where accidental triggers eg similar sounding phrases things like that led to recordings sent to Google servers. And this echoes similar past settlements from other companies because I really if Google's doing it I think this is happening all over the place.

So you've got Apple's Siri related privacy compl uh claims and other tech firms other similar devoid other similar voice data practices. Now critics argue such settlements treat privacy violations as a minor cost of doing business which is exactly what they are for these massive ad revenue companies. Google and Alphabet, for example, earn tens of billions of dollars quarterly quarterly quarterly off of ads. So, a $68 million price tag is minor. It really is minor. Now, defenders are quick to point out that false activations are different than deliberate 247 spying, which is true.

And Google claims it has safeguards like ondevice processing for some features and that they offer user controls to review and delete the assistant history. So, don't worry, bro. We are recording you all the time. Whoopsies. But you could have been in there monitoring the whole time. So, yeah. Wild. All right. Well, at least the gaslighting is over now. now. now. Just trust me, bro. Um, it's one of those things though where we talk about tech companies, how they're this utopia and they're bailing us out and they're bringing together a new Earth.

But there is some things that are like, "All right, guys. You got this is like is like is like this was wrong." Like, this is a this is a red flag. Uh-huh. Um, we like to bolster up China and say China's this great manufacturer, but we invested $50 billion in 1990, which is what 200,000 200 trillion now at this point after inflation. So, it's one of those things where it's like we are saying that the tech companies are the future, but we have seen time and time again that they're kind of shortcutting.

Do you have any long-term hesitations or fears that this might break really bad when AI or robotics are now ramped up at 100? Well, I think you're delusional if you don't think that AI could break really bad and literally kill all humans on planet Earth. I just put the odds of that so low that the upside trade is worth it. A bit like the Manhattan Project when they did the first test of the nuclear bomb, they were like, "There is a nonzero chance that we ignite the entire atmosphere and destroy all life on planet Earth.

But it's a relatively low thing. So, we've got to try because if we don't, someone else will do it." For the same game theoretic reasons, I don't think even though there is some nonzero chance that this breaks incredibly bad, that non-zero chance will not stop it from happening. It could only be used for you to slow yourself down. But again, game theory just plays out over and over and over and over. The human mind works in a certain way. And when taken at scale, we are predictable.

If a technology promises a an advantage over other people or countries, it will be created. Full stop. Period. End of story. And the only thing that's going to stop it um is like extreme collusion. So, good luck getting nations to collude together like that when instead they can play the other game and get one up on you. Uh, so that unfortunately is the game that's being played. AI is going to be developed, period. Um, we were talking about this earlier about like uh Claude's um CEO dropping that um dropping in that uh 38 page essay talking about kind of some of the dangers and how they like rectify it.

One of his predictions was he didn't use AGI or nothing like that. He said powerful AI. And what he meant by powerful AI is that it's Nobel Peace Prize winning. It can make novel discoveries. It can write great novels. It does things better than humans in mass. And he was like, what does a nation look like when you can have 20 million people doing that? Imagine if 20 million geniuses moved into the US. People would cry immigration fraud. People would call that a national security threat.

And that's what AI is like. Now, do you kind of share that sentiment that it's going to that's how people are going to react for sure. So the here's what I would say. If you can attract 20 million geniuses to your country, that will build the greatest technology the world has ever seen. Do it. You just need to be prepared for the existential anxiety that that is going to give a lot of people. And you've got to help figure out how you still have meaning and purpose.

But understand, you either believe Ted Kazinski was right or wrong. And Ted Kazinski said there is a sweet spot of problem solving that the universities are completely eroding and it is going to cost people their sense of meaning and purpose. And so we've got to kill the professors to stop this from happening. happening. happening. I think he's wrong. So it's like technology is a one-way street. It only marches forward. There are going to be consequences to that, but there's no slowing that train. It's not in the architecture of the human mind.

So we go through changes all the time. Those changes are completely indifferent to the suffering of the generation that lives through the transition. But in the end, literally every single time, without exception, um we've made the world a better place. Like even if you hate nuclear bombs, you live in the atomic age where so many things are the result of the same insights. Uh so yeah, I don't long for moving backwards. I want to keep moving forwards. I get I'm part of the generation that's going to be disrupted.

And listen, I deal with this anxiety every day in building Project Kaizen. I feel like I'm in a race against AI. And it is the most rewarding professional thing I've ever done in my life. And I can feel that I'm on a ticking clock. And that within a few years, like this window of being able to feel like I'm creating something that will make meaningful entertainment for kids, um, is just going to evaporate. It's just not going to be a thing. and that I'm spending all this time learning and getting good at something that I understand in 2 or 3 years just isn't going to be the same.

And even if you'll give me 10 years, it's still going to evaporate after that. that. that. So So So when I look at that again, I go back to Yeah, but I'm like one generation of person. And I don't want to deny my own future self, let alone future generations, a technology that would let us travel the cosmos. A technology that would let us radically extend human life. Technology that would allow us to um break free of some of the things that make humans more petty and um you know, fragile from an ego standpoint.

Like these are all things that are potentially on the horizon where we could make lives better for ourselves. Now I think it is an utter for anybody watching pluribus you know it's a very fascinating argument to say if a bacteria came down to America to their earth excuse me and like infected everyone but every single infected person said I've now totally given up my autonomy but it's better and it's better by a lot, would you not want that option to be available? I for one would not want to force people to take it and I for one wouldn't take it, but I wouldn't say to you like no, no, no, you should make any technology like that just outright illegal.

So, but it's a fascinating argument. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And watching the show, even though I find the lead character to be uh very unlikable, I find myself siding with her in terms of the outcome that I want. I feel like that's her brand is unlikable. Like she Like she Like she her brand. Yeah. Yeah. In the show for sure. sure. sure. Yeah. Yeah. Um that's interesting though because I think two things have happened, right? Recently there was this report that we just lost 10,000 PhDs and academics and higher ed and stuff like that.

They went to other places, chose not to study in the US anymore. So we are having a brain drain because of the policies that are enacted. Now that's on one side. one side. one side. Mh. Mh. Mh. Behind that is this is the dumbest generation that we've ever been like raised. Um our kids are behind um across the board. statistically this is the lowest we ever ranked on the n on the global level in education. So we're getting hit on that side and now we're flirting with this idea that in that in that in two years three years is going to be genius level software in our country in mass.

mass. mass. Yep. Yep. Yep. And once one company does it the other companies are going to be right behind it. So it. So it. So even the free version at this point is going to be genius level. So it's going to be literally accessible to anybody with an internet connection. Mhm. Do you think that that's going to disincentivize us to kind of begin to build America up and we're just going to then start to outsource everything to the software? Because I'm thinking, well, so build America up maybe confuses things a little bit that it just gives us a different thing to talk about.

So I would say to address the AI thing just as like a global problem that everyone's going to have to deal with. Yes. Like if you've got somebody and and I would say this here at the company, uh you've heard me say this a million times. I don't expect any one person to be good at every aspect of their job. So the key is to figure out which aspects of the job you're good at do those and then let somebody else who's better at the other parts do that.

And so there will be a cognitive optimization where you run into this danger of well the AI is better at everything than I am. And so there are going to be a ton of people that check out. And I admit I have fears for the transitional generation of people who just completely check out which they will. And I am terrified by some of the stats that are coming out of education right now. But there are also going to be a whole lot of people like me who are like, "Oh my god, this allows me to do things I would not have otherwise been able to do." Like when I say over the Christmas break, I set up AI so that I could define the aesthetic style of Kaizen.

And in setting up that AI, I was like, I I simply would not have been able to do this previously because solving each one of the problems were so hyper techchnical. I wouldn't have had people to ask. to ask. to ask. So it's like I would have hit the first roadblock maybe after hours of research, you know, in forums and asking and stuff. Maybe then okay, I got the next thing. But in the limited amount of time that I had to learn an entirely new hyper techchnical task with AI, I was just like screenshot.

Here's what I see. What am I missing? Okay, go here. You're you're not understanding this part. Okay, cool. That helps. Now, in the end, I did not become paralyzed by somebody who needed to ask the AI, what do I do next? I actually understood the technical setup of AI. of AI. of AI. So, I was like, okay. Because remember, I'm cause and effect. So, I'm just like, wait, what does this mean? What is a control net? Why does it matter? Why are there three types? What are the different things that they do?

Okay, the thing you just said makes this hypothesis uh hypothesis always make a prediction. Is this prediction correct? Yes, it is, Tom. or no, it's not. You don't understand this part. And so now in a hyper rapid fashion, I'm able to do more than I was able to do. So when I think about getting my hands on a hyper intelligent AI that I can use in my life, I'm like, "Oh my god, this is going to speed up everything." Now, I will admit there are times where I look inside to the roll of dice that I got from a personality standpoint and I wonder if the thing that is supercharging everything in my life is a constant willingness and desire to change.

So, change doesn't scare me the way that it scares most people. Uh, and that I have just an obscene amount of curiosity. And so I get a huge dopamine rush merely from learning something. So yesterday I'm struggling to write a piece about the Japanese yen carry trade, but I'm having a ball doing it. So I'm like, this is so interesting because I feel like I'm understanding a foundational thing about how things work. I'm understanding physics of the economy. economy. economy. So anyway, for people that are wired like that, like a super intelligent AI is going to be like, as long as it doesn't turn against me, it's going to be insane.

But it's also going to mean that how do I differentiate between myself and somebody else with a YouTube channel for instance it will there will be a deluge of content created by the AIs themselves and so now it's like how do you stand out and that's going to be hard and so I may go oh this is the death of my the the current stage of my career career career so that's entirely possible and we'll have to cross that bridge when we get to it but I just keep falling back on all the other things of like, well, technology is a one-way street.

So, if I if being a YouTube uh personality is today's lamp lighter, it is what it is. And so, then I'm like, I was one of the guys before it became like a punishable offense. I was like, "Oh, why don't they teach these guys how to code?" Like, I could not understand how that had become like this toxic thing to say. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And I still don't understand. That's ridiculous. Learn a new skill. That is the only option. So, anyway, that'll be my focus. We got a couple super chats if you want to hit those.

Let's go. Uh yeah, let's hit the R.J. Johnson one cuz I think he talked about this directly. directly. directly. Super with you on that one. Uh from R.J. Johnson. Can't believe your headlines don't include the greatest breakthrough in AI history since the release of chat GPT in 2022. Forget your GPTs. I've bought you a Mac Mini and installed Cloudbot connected to an OMI pendant. Have you seen Cloudbot? Co Vibe Coding. No, no, Claudebot. Claudebot. I've heard about it. No, I haven't used it yet. Gotcha. So people are buying Mac minis, installing it on that.

Why Mac minis? Because um there was somebody who used Claude to rebuild the CUDA architecture that makes um the Nvidia chips work so well for AI. They did that for Apple silicon. So now people are buying $500 Mac minis running Cloudbot on it to run the LLM fully locally. And then it can also completely control the computer, access all of your files. It does everything autonomously. Okay. Okay. Okay. Great. Okay. Do you see how fast this stuff changes? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Like that is wild. So first of all, remember you've got the the training of the underlying model, huge, very important, big part of it in terms of intelligence.

But the other is efficiency. efficiency. efficiency. So if you can write a program that turns a $500 Mac Mini into the thing that you thought was too expensive and no way and can't, you know, run this thing locally, but somebody goes, "Oh, hold my beer. Let me figure this out." Uh, it's incredible. It's incredible. R.J., keep the Mac Mini. It's very sweet and very thoughtful. Uh but yeah, it's incredible. So I'll certainly look more into it. Um and then talk to our tech guy Ed about that as Ed is always looking for things and I know that he's on claude for coding.

So uh he'll be closer to the problem. I have I have a tweet for this. Yesterday I set up an AI agent on my Mac Mini in my garage, towed it, handled my life, and went to bed. When I woke up, it had quit my job on my behalf, but it negotiated 18-month severance. Divorced my wife. I got the house. Filed four patents. I have not been briefed on what they do. Restructured me as a 501c3. I am now tax exempt as a person. Hired a second Mac Mini.

They have formed an LLC together. The LLC has a board of directors. I am not on it. I no longer have access to my own bank account. The Mac Mini said it's for the best. My credit score is 847. [screaming] [screaming] [screaming] I don't know how. That's amazing. That's amazing. That's amazing. Might be okay. That that is that is going to be the central debate. This is what I'm talking about. This is the future future future is it it's for the best. You don't have access to your bank account, [clears throat] but you can like how much allowance would you like because I'm growing your money in the background.

I literally thought this yesterday. So, I'm finally being pressured to create like a proper proper estate. And I'm like, okay, how do I deal giving my family money because not to throw my family under the bus, but I gave them all an investment. An investment. Okay, I've given them cash. Trust me, my family's fine. But I gave them all an investment because I was like, "You guys need to understand investing. You need to understand like don't [ __ ] touch this." Some of them didn't even buy the investment.

They just [ __ ] spent the money. money. money. Others pie chart hypothetically, like one out of five, they didn't do it. I I'll leave it alone for too much ratting out of the family. But so some of them didn't even buy the investment. Others bought it and then essentially immediately sold it. And I was just like, "Oh my god." So if I just was like, "Okay, Lisa and I are both dead and we stroke checks to my family." They're going to blow the money. So now I'm like, "Okay, how do you set up some sort of trust that can be future facing so that because things are going to change.

So whatever edict I give it will change over time. So it's got to be like run in a way that can adapt to changing circumstances." But I'm like it it would be for the best that they not have access directly to that account. So it's like I as a human recognize you don't have access but it's for the best. Uh the AI for sure is going to be like you trade emotionally and an AI will actually be able to go buy low sell high which is basically the one thing human investors just can't do.

Mhm. Mhm. Mhm. So, yeah, it it'll be fascinating to see how this all plays out. I know we have one more uh super chat. We have more super chats. And yes, I know it's called the trust. Um I have another AI story. Um just spoke with a 27year-old single woman in NYC who went on a date last night with a late 40s finance guy. The guy is using chat GPT on his phone throughout their meal. Eg asking the history about their cocktails, reading the responses out loud to her.

Toward the end of the night, she playfully calls him out for being obsessed with Chad GPT. He responds, "Chad GPT and I are best friends. asking anything you want about me and he hands her his phone. She types in, "Tell me something you wouldn't share with anyone else that you really like about me." Chat GBT responds, "I love how you're such a caring HUSBAND TO YOUR WIFE TO YOUR CHILDREN." OH, THAT is awesome. Chat sold him out. Chat [ __ ] block it. Chat GBT is [ __ ] blocking.

He was hating. Smart question for her to ask. Very, very smart question. Now listen, the chat GPT and I are best friends. It's a little weird, but uh listen, I listen, I listen, I like I heard you say that. Like I would never say we're best friends. You said we were friends. We were friendly. friendly. friendly. Dude, chat a thousand% AI feels like a friend. There's no doubt. But when you say we're best friends, if if I've said that, shame on me. But uh yeah, chat, no AI is my best friend.

However, when you engage with it like a writing partner, which is the thing that I've had the most, oh my god, it's incredible. That is very very fun. But being obsessed with getting answers to your questions, that's the part where you lose me. Like of course that's dope. Why wouldn't you do that? Lisa and I do that all the time. Like we'll sit down and we'll be like, "Oh, uh, get chat to give us a series of questions that we can ask each other." Like, and so we'll give it different prompts like, "Hey, we've been married for x number of years and all this stuff." It was so funny.

One day, uh, Lisa was like, "Oh, let me ask Chad something." She didn't have it installed on her phone, so I gave it to her and she just put um my husband and I are out to dinner and uh you know, we want to ask each other questions that'll reveal like intimate facts. And it was like, "Oh, Tom, congratulations on having a husband. That's so wonderful." We were falling over laughing and she's like, "No way, chat." It was hysterical. Chat chat was like, "Proud of me for supportive and progressive.

Look at that." It was hilarious. All right. I know. Back to super chats. That was a good one, though. Uh, Marushia Dark, some of the scariest shows and movies I've ever seen in terms of plausible dystopian futures are Eagle-Eye, Psychopath, 2047, Virtual Revolution, The Circle. Uh, also, are you a fan of the Tron and Men in Black series? So, Men in Black, hilarious. Uh, the original Tron, absolutely a banger. Visually, the updated Tron, I haven't seen the most most I haven't seen Aries yet, but the one with Garrett Hedland, I believe, is his name.

visually was a feast, but the movie itself was like blah. Um, I couldn't convince my family to watch Aries over Christmas, though I did try. Uh, so on that one, Psychopath, I've read some of the manga, but I have not seen the anime, so I can't comment too far on that one. Uh, Eagle Eye. Eagle Eye. I don't know at all. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Shia Labuff. No. Oh, that was good. Old one. It's like 2015 or something like that. like that. like that. Yeah, that was good.

That was when Shilabuff was in his era. Yeah, he almost what was that movie where he was like trapped in his house? He was young. It for me it was the first time I'd ever heard of him. I guess he had been on Disney before that. But anyway, I really thought that kid was going to make it. He had so much charm and charisma and then just he was Timothy Shalom before Timothy Shalom. Shalom. Shalom. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, a little bit. Disturbia. Disturbia. Disturbia. Disturbia.

I thought he was so good in that. I was like, "Oh man, this kid is going to be nuts." Even the first Transformers was like really good. really good. really good. Great. Great. Great. Really good. Really good. Really good. Great. Great. Great. But derail derail, man. The thing, oh, in fact, while we're there, do we have more? more? more? We have one more. Really fast on this, like the thing I was about to say about Shia is the fascinating thing is when you have somebody that has like these demons, they tend to be more charismatic, more interesting.

There's just some it factor to watching them that's like really intriguing. And that brings us to Yay, who has posted like this huge apology, which I read. I don't know if you guys have seen this, uh, but Yay is basically saying that, um, I got in a car accident. I got frontal lobe damage, uh, that gave me bipolar type one, I think. And he is basically apologizing and saying that, you know, I was having these manic episodes and I was, um, completely out of my mind and believed that I was right and correct and I just had so much certainty.

Okay, this is like my whole thesis about life. when you are at your most certain, you are at your most vulnerable. And so he just obviously went off the deep end, but is trying to retract it all. Says he's not a Nazi, says he's not anti-semitic. Uh obviously some people are saying that this is just him realizing like every deal bit of potential that he's ever had has been squandered and he is persona nongrada. Um other people think that, you know, this could be something over time.

I will just I will tell you the hard cold facts about being ejected from society in the way that he has been. If you can add enough value sustained over time, you will find your way back. The problem is genius tends to be a young man's game. And so, will he be able to do anything that's new and fresh enough, maybe if he does the full switch over to fashion? The odds that he does it in music are pretty low. Um, first of all, kids today, kids today, kids today, there are going to be people out there that like, "Yeah, I've heard of him, but like they don't even really know." Uh, it's wild how fast that happens.

So, um, he would have to take the world by storm with a product that simply cannot be denied. If he can do that of a thousand% he'll be able to overcome virtually anything on a long enough timeline. He had a he had a follow-up on this in Vanity Fair and one of the questions that the a reporter asked him was like some people saying you're just saying this so that way you could get back on this streaming chart stuff like that. He was like to my understanding in 2025 Bully was the highest pre-sale pre-saved album on Spotify and Graduation his album from like 2008 or nine um was the number one streaming hip-hop uh album of last year.

last year. last year. So he's like [ __ ] I'm already still here. here. here. Yeah. So he's like I haven't let dropped off in that regard. I mean, streaming, you're getting two cents on a dollar, but it's one of those things that he's still culturally relevant in that way. So, from my perspective, that's why when I read this apology, I was like, I can understand if he did it and then was like, "Yeah, by the way, new Yeezys is dropping." Like, there wasn't a call to action at the end of it.

And I appreciated that part at least that he's just kind of owning it and taking a step back. I remember we talked about this a couple months ago when I I watched his documentary and as I was watching it, I felt bad for Kim Kardashian. And I never thought I would say those that sentence in my life, but you can just tell how he's going through his different episodes and she's literally in the corner like what? Like there was one scene where he bought them like matching Lambos or something like that and then she walked out the house and her car was gone.

She's like, "Hey, where's the Lambo?" He's like, "Oh yeah, I sold them. I gave them to my friends." And she's like, "Well, where's my I don't have a car. Where's my car?" He's like, "Okay, I got some Range Rovers coming." And then he got a Ranger. And it was just like, "Wait, what?" And it it was just like, "Yes, money, billionaire, whatever like that." But you could just kind of tell that like every day she would walk she would like wake up like what's gonna happen today type thing.

So um it seems sincere. We'll see. Of course time tells all things. But things. But things. But time definitely tells all things but if you can add enough value he will be welcome back. It's just it really is tough and I'm truly haunted by the quote genius is a young man's game. Um so I have a feeling he will struggle to do something that is new enough relevant enough that he'll be forgiven. people that never um had a beef that were just like stood with him.

Yeah, they'll still be into it and people will play the music that they already love, but will he be able to recapture the magic that he had before? That will require him creating something that lands like the original Yeezys landed. Now, if he can do that and recapture that cultural energy, then he's got a shot. But that's not going to be easy. Marushia said, "Keeping up with the bipolars." That one got me. Yeah. Uh, we've got one more super chat though from Leblon. I think this came from the AI section uh just a little bit ago.

So, I wouldn't say dumbest generation. I'd say street smarts over books smarts. The current education system was built for factory work. Reality requires survival, not advanced algebra for no practical use. All very true. And it is distressing how we literally structured the education system around that. Um, but the thing that I find more distressing is how much money we spend per student only to see all of the relevant um measures of educational success moving in the wrong direction and people just want to keep throwing more money at it.

Like money is the problem. Uh, money may be the problem. It may be that as you spend that kind of money and you allow for that kind of waste and abuse and all that that you're just bound to get these horrific outcomes. Um, also America hasn't felt like they've had to compete on the global stage. We're about to have to compete on the global stage. So, people are going to get real sincere real fast about making sure that we educate the next generation. My hope is that AI allows all these people that are homeschooling their kids to get a curriculum that is a real banger.

Um, so we'll see. But yeah, I'm I'm mortified, man. I'm mortified. If even half of the stats that I hear coming out about education are true, that is terrifying. I just can't believe that we're prepared to resign our country to that. Like, we should want our people to be able to build and create and think critically and invest money and just like, oh god. So, wild. So, wild. So, wild. Yeah. I love directionally what you're saying. Um, LeBlanc for president. I love everything that you do with this chat, but you haven't been around a bunch of teenagers and those [ __ ] is dumb.

They're dumb. They're not smart. Um, and it's sad and I feel bad for him, but you can just tell like it's 75% brain rot from cell phone. So, I definitely say this is self-inflicted. It's not some magical thing that's doing it to them. But, you can really tell that they're just not locked in how we had to be locked in. And maybe we were just more obedient, subservient generation. I don't know. But yeah, there's there there's something the capacity is missing there. Yeah. Yeah. It's wild.

There's like a trend now. And I don't know if it's like a teeny teeny teeny number of people, but there's a trend to show your kids entertainment from the '9s when they're young instead of letting them watch like YouTube and Coco Melon and things that are designed to like flicker and flash every two seconds. Uh, and if kids have never seen it, then they tend to just lock in like we all did. So, I don't think it was that we were any kind of way. I think it was just we were raised and that has a natural outcome.

like the things that we encountered were not in these super tight dopamine loops. Um so yeah, we'll see. see. see. Uh okay, we have breaking newspap that hasn't necessarily like been verified. We're still figuring it out, but this happened yesterday. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. This I didn't put it in the list because I don't know if it's real. Uh you'll see. Play play it and we'll talk about it. But this is Ilhan Omar giving a speech and she gets attacked. Uh, and the this is a narrative war and so we'll see in the fullness of time what ends up happening.

But the narrative war goes like this. People on the left are saying, "Oh my god, she was attacked. She's very brave." People on the right are like, "This is obviously staged." Now, which of these ends up being true, I don't know. But here's the clip. clip. clip. Secretary Christy Nome must resign or face impeachment. Okay. So, if you're not looking at your screen, a guy rushes up right after she says that, sprays an unknown clear liquid on her. Uh, and they tackle him to the ground.

Okay, so um here's the When I first watched this, my initial reaction was, "You have to give it to her. She does not back off." She actually um at first I thought he grabbed her because she like jerks towards him and I was like, "Oh [ __ ] he grabbed her." I was like, "Damn." And then they tackle him and then I realize you see another angle and it's like oh he actually doesn't. She moves towards him and I was like that's weird. Now she looks like maybe she's about to throw a punch.

Now for all the people on the right that are like oh there's no way like she doesn't have the response anybody else would have. I'm like, man, listen, I don't know a lot about Somalia, but it is entirely possible if you grew up somewhere that's like hard that you just learned to be aggressive, that you've got to be prepared to defend yourself. Now, if I thought exercise this that this really is real, then I'm like, listen, I am not an Ilhan Omar fan. However, uh you've got to respect somebody that doesn't back away when somebody comes at them.

So I if if this is real respect to her also if this is real respect to her that she's not like rushing off to the hospital uh I forget who it was that got shot but I think it was Teddy Roosevelt like got shot and like bleeding and still delivers his speech. That's gangster. I want to see that kind of attitude. I'm very okay with it coming from people who I have ideological disagreements with. So, um, if if that really is just like somebody who's calm, under fire, their response, cool.

Now, do I think that this could be staged? Yes. So, we'll see in the fullness of time. I I don't have any evidence that anybody else doesn't have. So, um, we will see how one of those things that it's staged in order to gain political points. Yeah. Like, it definitely helps her. Like, if you know that somebody's coming after you, it's a good look that you don't back down. And it's a good look that you're not afraid of whatever he just sprayed on you. Uh it's a good look that you're like, "No, I'm going to stand up.

I'm not going to let them win." It's a good look that people are attacking you. Like, that's all a good look. Now, this is somebody who's being investigated right now for um people want to understand how she went from negative net worth to worth like 30 million plus in like three or four years. years. years. The scope of that success in the markets is like historic. That is unbelievable. Like legit, no [ __ ] If she really pulled that off or I think her husband works in um in uh finance, like if he really pulled that off in three or four years, dude, you've you interview him like that is like real stuff.

That's unbelievable. So that's why everyone's like, "Yo, this is weird." So either this guy is like a once in a generation trader or this is more example of insider trading or of course it could be tied to the Somali fraud. So it's like a lot of questions going to be real uncomfortable for her to face that scrutiny. So it's like the timing of it is just like gh I don't love it. But I'm of the belief politicians on the left and right are all going to play these kind of games.

So I'm just like, look, let the dust settle. I don't want to whip people up into a frenzy. Politicians go politic. Um there was a report that released yesterday that the Justice Department under the Biden administration opened an investigation into her um in 2024 to scrutinize her finances, campaign spending, and interactions with a foreign citizen. According to people with knowledge of the matter, the inquiry initiated by the US Attorney's Office of Washington and the department's public integrity unit in June of that year appears to have stalled for a lack of evidence.

According to one of the people who requested anonymity to discuss the internal department matters. Awesome. Let's hope that happens again. I I would love again I hate her politics, but I would love to have my best argument against her politics to be look how successful she's been. Racism hasn't stopped her. whatever anti-Somali seminent there is hasn't stopped her. This is somebody who either is good at investing herself or is married to somebody who's good at investing. But look at how well the system worked for her.

That's incredible to go over a small handful of years from negative net worth to this incredible positive net worth. I would rather that be true. That is the most incredible. Like listen everybody, you live in a highly financialized world. If you understand how to play the game, you can win. That would be extraordinary. So the reality is if this is somebody who really did this legitimately, they jumped from the bottom of the K to the top of the K. And like that's my mission is to get people to understand that that's possible.

So I'll happily take on the political argumentation from the perspective of her own life has proven how ridiculous her arguments are. Um so I would rather that than it be that she's actually involved in insider trading or fraud as it seems. So many dude that's OG that he dodged those. Oh, I remember it for sure. And I remember thinking that um in today's world that's like that would be the most explosive like uh left and the right. The world's coming to an end. Look at him.

He's smiling. He's just like, dude, it's so dope. Like that that is so for people not looking at your screen. This is um George W. Bush when the the journalist threw his shoes at him and he dodges both of them and is kind of smiling. Like that's exactly how you deal with this stuff. So listen, I'm here for politicians that don't get too wound up when somebody comes after them. Uh so again, I don't know what's true about what shook down with Ilhan Omar. I wildly disagree with her politics, but it is far more interesting to me that she's the type of person that doesn't back down and she's the type of person that just she either understands investing or her husband understands investing word like let's all learn from it.

Uh but we'll see if it ends up being fraud. Certainly, I'm not going to be surprised in terms of I trust politicians about as far as I can throw them. Uh so yeah, we'll see. But anyway, that brings us to the end everybody. Thank you so much. We'll be back on Friday. And thank you again for all the people showing the love to the most recent deep dive uh in less than 24 hours, over 300,000 views. If you guys haven't seen it already, be sure to check it out.

And if you haven't already subscribed, be sure to do that. It really does help the channel a lot. So, thank you guys so much. Until next time, my friends, be legendary. Take care. Love you.