“This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War

Welcome to another episode of the All-In Welcome to another episode of the All-In Interview. I'm really excited to be Interview. I'm really excited to be Interview. I'm really excited to be joined by uh back to All-In Harvard joined by uh back to All-In Harvard joined by uh back to All-In Harvard professor Graeme Allison. Professor professor Graeme Allison. Professor professor Graeme Allison. Professor Allison, welcome back to AllIn. Allison, welcome back to AllIn. Allison, welcome back to AllIn. >> Thanks for having me. >> Thanks for having me. >> Thanks for having me. >> We last had you at the uh summit in Los >> We last had you at the uh summit in Los >> We last had you at the uh summit in Los Angeles, so it's great to have a Angeles, so it's great to have a Angeles, so it's great to have a conversation. A lot's happened since we conversation. A lot's happened since we conversation. A lot's happened since we last got together. For the audience, last got together. For the audience, last got together. For the audience, Graeme Allison's the founding dean of Graeme Allison's the founding dean of Graeme Allison's the founding dean of the Harvard Kennedy School. He's advised the Harvard Kennedy School. He's advised the Harvard Kennedy School. He's advised every Secretary of Defense since every Secretary of Defense since every Secretary of Defense since Kessinger. He's helped dismantle 12,000 Kessinger. He's helped dismantle 12,000 Kessinger. He's helped dismantle 12,000 Soviet nuclear weapons and his book, Soviet nuclear weapons and his book, Soviet nuclear weapons and his book, Destined for War, remains the definitive Destined for War, remains the definitive Destined for War, remains the definitive framework for understanding the USChina framework for understanding the USChina framework for understanding the USChina relationship. I think it's worth kind of relationship. I think it's worth kind of relationship. I think it's worth kind of bringing forward some of the things that bringing forward some of the things that bringing forward some of the things that have happened in the world since we last have happened in the world since we last have happened in the world since we last met. I'm going all in. >> If you were building a global financial >> If you were building a global financial system from first principles today, you system from first principles today, you system from first principles today, you wouldn't build it on 50-year-old legacy wouldn't build it on 50-year-old legacy wouldn't build it on 50-year-old legacy rails. You'd build airwalls. It's the rails. You'd build airwalls. It's the rails. You'd build airwalls. It's the single platform for global accounts, single platform for global accounts, single platform for global accounts, cards, and payments that treats the cards, and payments that treats the cards, and payments that treats the entire world like a local market. Stop entire world like a local market. Stop entire world like a local market. Stop paying the legacy tax and start building paying the legacy tax and start building paying the legacy tax and start building the future at airwall.com/allin. the future at airwall.com/allin. the future at airwall.com/allin. Airwallix. Build the future. Airwallix. Build the future. Airwallix. Build the future. Let's start with Iran. The US and Israel Let's start with Iran. The US and Israel Let's start with Iran. The US and Israel are in the middle of an attack on Iran are in the middle of an attack on Iran are in the middle of an attack on Iran and the Supreme Leader is dead, but the and the Supreme Leader is dead, but the and the Supreme Leader is dead, but the regime is still holding on to power. regime is still holding on to power. regime is still holding on to power. Where do you think this conflict will Where do you think this conflict will Where do you think this conflict will take us? And are we sleepwalking into take us? And are we sleepwalking into take us? And are we sleepwalking into World War II? World War II? World War II? >> Well, thank you again for having me >> Well, thank you again for having me >> Well, thank you again for having me back. I You'll have a great podcast. I back. I You'll have a great podcast. I back. I You'll have a great podcast. I enjoyed the summit and I'm sorry we're enjoyed the summit and I'm sorry we're enjoyed the summit and I'm sorry we're not there in person to to catch up but I not there in person to to catch up but I not there in person to to catch up but I think think think >> about a man uh how much to say so this >> about a man uh how much to say so this >> about a man uh how much to say so this could be a long lecture let me just do could be a long lecture let me just do could be a long lecture let me just do four or five quick points first point four or five quick points first point four or five quick points first point most important point is that there's most important point is that there's most important point is that there's more questions than answers though more questions than answers though more questions than answers though there's a huge level of uncertainty there's a huge level of uncertainty there's a huge level of uncertainty currently about what's happening and currently about what's happening and currently about what's happening and about what's likely to happen about what's likely to happen about what's likely to happen part of this is Clausitz's famous fog of part of this is Clausitz's famous fog of part of this is Clausitz's famous fog of war, but there's a fog of war that's war, but there's a fog of war that's war, but there's a fog of war that's actually increased because we got two actually increased because we got two actually increased because we got two big fog machines uh adding to the big fog machines uh adding to the big fog machines uh adding to the confusion confusion confusion uh namely Trump and the administration uh namely Trump and the administration uh namely Trump and the administration on the one hand and BB on the other and on the one hand and BB on the other and on the one hand and BB on the other and then we got all the chattering class then we got all the chattering class then we got all the chattering class around this. So I would say why did around this. So I would say why did around this. So I would say why did Trump decide to go to war now? Trump decide to go to war now? Trump decide to go to war now? There's six different reasons he and the There's six different reasons he and the There's six different reasons he and the administration have given and each one administration have given and each one administration have given and each one they back out. What's the objective? Uh they back out. What's the objective? Uh they back out. What's the objective? Uh there's five different objectives there's five different objectives there's five different objectives backing around. And when is this war backing around. And when is this war backing around. And when is this war going to end? You know, a day, a week, a going to end? You know, a day, a week, a going to end? You know, a day, a week, a month, who knows? So, it's very month, who knows? So, it's very month, who knows? So, it's very uncomfortable to recognize how uncertain uncomfortable to recognize how uncertain uncomfortable to recognize how uncertain things are. And most of the conversation things are. And most of the conversation things are. And most of the conversation about it tries to make it more about it tries to make it more about it tries to make it more confident. But I think the place to confident. But I think the place to confident. But I think the place to start is there's a huge amount of start is there's a huge amount of start is there's a huge amount of uncertainty. Having said that, I'll uncertainty. Having said that, I'll uncertainty. Having said that, I'll still give you my prejudices about a few still give you my prejudices about a few still give you my prejudices about a few of the points. Point two, this has been of the points. Point two, this has been of the points. Point two, this has been an extraordinary an extraordinary an extraordinary uh demonstration of supreme military uh demonstration of supreme military uh demonstration of supreme military power and supreme intelligence power. US power and supreme intelligence power. US power and supreme intelligence power. US military and the intelligence community military and the intelligence community military and the intelligence community and the Israeli counterparts have been and the Israeli counterparts have been and the Israeli counterparts have been way way way off the charts and I think way way way off the charts and I think way way way off the charts and I think they should make all Americans proud of they should make all Americans proud of they should make all Americans proud of what's been built over this decade of what's been built over this decade of what's been built over this decade of two decades of investment but especially two decades of investment but especially two decades of investment but especially the past decade. Uh third point, there's the past decade. Uh third point, there's the past decade. Uh third point, there's no tears to be shed for Ham and Islamic no tears to be shed for Ham and Islamic no tears to be shed for Ham and Islamic Republic regime. It's an evil leader, an Republic regime. It's an evil leader, an Republic regime. It's an evil leader, an evil regime. There's no bad thing that evil regime. There's no bad thing that evil regime. There's no bad thing that could happen to them that we shouldn't could happen to them that we shouldn't could happen to them that we shouldn't be cheering out of that. So, next point be cheering out of that. So, next point be cheering out of that. So, next point though, breaking something's a lot though, breaking something's a lot though, breaking something's a lot easier than building something. And easier than building something. And easier than building something. And destroying targets is something that our destroying targets is something that our destroying targets is something that our military knows very well how to do. military knows very well how to do. military knows very well how to do. Building a new regime, regime change is Building a new regime, regime change is Building a new regime, regime change is something that we know historically uh something that we know historically uh something that we know historically uh doesn't work very well, at least in Iraq doesn't work very well, at least in Iraq doesn't work very well, at least in Iraq and Afghanistan. We had every word said and Afghanistan. We had every word said and Afghanistan. We had every word said that's been said in this case. And we that's been said in this case. And we that's been said in this case. And we then went in allin and spent more than a then went in allin and spent more than a then went in allin and spent more than a billion dollars of many, many thousands billion dollars of many, many thousands billion dollars of many, many thousands of American lives. And when we went of American lives. And when we went of American lives. And when we went through Afghanistan, the Taliban were through Afghanistan, the Taliban were through Afghanistan, the Taliban were ruling. when we left Afghanistan, the ruling. when we left Afghanistan, the ruling. when we left Afghanistan, the Taliban were ruling. So I would say Taliban were ruling. So I would say Taliban were ruling. So I would say unfortunately it's against a backdrop unfortunately it's against a backdrop unfortunately it's against a backdrop that's hard. The next point slightly that's hard. The next point slightly that's hard. The next point slightly more controversial, but I think this is more controversial, but I think this is more controversial, but I think this is BB's war. If your reader or your BB's war. If your reader or your BB's war. If your reader or your listeners don't remember Mumby Dick, listeners don't remember Mumby Dick, listeners don't remember Mumby Dick, they should go look at it again. Ahab they should go look at it again. Ahab they should go look at it again. Ahab had this fixation obsession with the had this fixation obsession with the had this fixation obsession with the white whale and tried to find a way to white whale and tried to find a way to white whale and tried to find a way to kill the white whale whenever he could. kill the white whale whenever he could. kill the white whale whenever he could. For the last two decades, that's been For the last two decades, that's been For the last two decades, that's been BB's number one, number two, number BB's number one, number two, number BB's number one, number two, number three agenda. He's tried to sell that three agenda. He's tried to sell that three agenda. He's tried to sell that war to uh Obama, uh to Trump won, to war to uh Obama, uh to Trump won, to war to uh Obama, uh to Trump won, to Biden, and how he succeeded in Biden, and how he succeeded in Biden, and how he succeeded in mesmerizing Trump, whom I thought had mesmerizing Trump, whom I thought had mesmerizing Trump, whom I thought had his number, I'm surprised. So, I'm pro- his number, I'm surprised. So, I'm pro- his number, I'm surprised. So, I'm pro- Israel, but antiBB in this respect. And Israel, but antiBB in this respect. And Israel, but antiBB in this respect. And I think that uh I understand he's I think that uh I understand he's I think that uh I understand he's brilliant politically. But I don't think brilliant politically. But I don't think brilliant politically. But I don't think this uh uh the arguments that were made this uh uh the arguments that were made this uh uh the arguments that were made that uh that Trump has actually repeated that uh that Trump has actually repeated that uh that Trump has actually repeated that in was about to attack us. I see no that in was about to attack us. I see no that in was about to attack us. I see no evidence for that. That Iran was about evidence for that. That Iran was about evidence for that. That Iran was about to get a nuclear weapon. I see no to get a nuclear weapon. I see no to get a nuclear weapon. I see no evidence for that. that Iran was evidence for that. that Iran was evidence for that. that Iran was building an ICBM that was going to building an ICBM that was going to building an ICBM that was going to attack the US. I see no evidence for attack the US. I see no evidence for attack the US. I see no evidence for that. There's many many bad things about that. There's many many bad things about that. There's many many bad things about the Iranian regime, but not most of the the Iranian regime, but not most of the the Iranian regime, but not most of the claims that that were made. So, I I look claims that that were made. So, I I look claims that that were made. So, I I look at this and I hope it turns out well, at this and I hope it turns out well, at this and I hope it turns out well, but I remember that in wars very but I remember that in wars very but I remember that in wars very frequently, it's easy to get in and it's frequently, it's easy to get in and it's frequently, it's easy to get in and it's quite difficult to get out. quite difficult to get out. quite difficult to get out. >> Let me double click on that point. You >> Let me double click on that point. You >> Let me double click on that point. You mentioned there's multiple reasons that mentioned there's multiple reasons that mentioned there's multiple reasons that the administration has messaged for the administration has messaged for the administration has messaged for doing this, multiple views on what doing this, multiple views on what doing this, multiple views on what success looks like, multiple timelines success looks like, multiple timelines success looks like, multiple timelines on ending it, and that this is BB's war. on ending it, and that this is BB's war. on ending it, and that this is BB's war. How do you think Trump was motivated to How do you think Trump was motivated to How do you think Trump was motivated to do this? What is the real motivation? do this? What is the real motivation? do this? What is the real motivation? And I will ask this in the context of And I will ask this in the context of And I will ask this in the context of the big delegation and visit to China the big delegation and visit to China the big delegation and visit to China coming up next month. Is Trump motivated coming up next month. Is Trump motivated coming up next month. Is Trump motivated fundamentally to create leverage with fundamentally to create leverage with fundamentally to create leverage with China and use this as a tool to try and China and use this as a tool to try and China and use this as a tool to try and maximize his negotiating leverage going maximize his negotiating leverage going maximize his negotiating leverage going into the Chinese negotiations? into the Chinese negotiations? into the Chinese negotiations? >> That's a great question and I wish that >> That's a great question and I wish that >> That's a great question and I wish that the answer was this was all part of a the answer was this was all part of a the answer was this was all part of a grand strategy. That would make me feel grand strategy. That would make me feel grand strategy. That would make me feel hugely better. But uh I try to do hugely better. But uh I try to do hugely better. But uh I try to do Trumpology and I was actually having Trumpology and I was actually having Trumpology and I was actually having dinner last night with Bill O'Reilly, a dinner last night with Bill O'Reilly, a dinner last night with Bill O'Reilly, a former student who I think is one of the former student who I think is one of the former student who I think is one of the better Trumpologists were trying to better Trumpologists were trying to better Trumpologists were trying to interpret and we were going back and interpret and we were going back and interpret and we were going back and forth through this. It's easy enough to forth through this. It's easy enough to forth through this. It's easy enough to see why the window tactically the window see why the window tactically the window see why the window tactically the window in which this attack occurred was chosen in which this attack occurred was chosen in which this attack occurred was chosen because here you got 40 you got the because here you got 40 you got the because here you got 40 you got the supreme leader and 40 of the other supreme leader and 40 of the other supreme leader and 40 of the other leaders of Iran out in public. So that's leaders of Iran out in public. So that's leaders of Iran out in public. So that's an opportunity as a target and the best an opportunity as a target and the best an opportunity as a target and the best opportunity that's come along. The opportunity that's come along. The opportunity that's come along. The question is why would you be attacking question is why would you be attacking question is why would you be attacking them and especially Trump given his uh them and especially Trump given his uh them and especially Trump given his uh campaign and his previous views about campaign and his previous views about campaign and his previous views about not repeating the mistakes of the people not repeating the mistakes of the people not repeating the mistakes of the people that took us into endless windless wars. that took us into endless windless wars. that took us into endless windless wars. And I think it's I mean I I think BB is And I think it's I mean I I think BB is And I think it's I mean I I think BB is a magician. a magician. a magician. I think his single-mindedness I think his single-mindedness I think his single-mindedness uh is impressive. uh is impressive. uh is impressive. I think his agility in making arguments I think his agility in making arguments I think his agility in making arguments and developing arguments is impressive. and developing arguments is impressive. and developing arguments is impressive. How he managed to persuade Trump this How he managed to persuade Trump this How he managed to persuade Trump this was a good idea for the US. Now I don't was a good idea for the US. Now I don't was a good idea for the US. Now I don't have a good idea. And I think that uh I have a good idea. And I think that uh I have a good idea. And I think that uh I think if I listen to the reasons why think if I listen to the reasons why think if I listen to the reasons why even the people closest around them have even the people closest around them have even the people closest around them have given or that Trump have given, they given or that Trump have given, they given or that Trump have given, they don't seem persuasive. Now partly Trump don't seem persuasive. Now partly Trump don't seem persuasive. Now partly Trump is erratic. is erratic. is erratic. uh partly he sort of you know acts on uh partly he sort of you know acts on uh partly he sort of you know acts on the basis of instincts uh somehow it the basis of instincts uh somehow it the basis of instincts uh somehow it came to him that this was uh you know came to him that this was uh you know came to him that this was uh you know something that could be done. I think something that could be done. I think something that could be done. I think actually BB painted a pretty uh I mean actually BB painted a pretty uh I mean actually BB painted a pretty uh I mean the upside of this picture if if it's the upside of this picture if if it's the upside of this picture if if it's successful and I hope now that we've successful and I hope now that we've successful and I hope now that we've gone into it it would be would be gone into it it would be would be gone into it it would be would be redefining security in the Middle East redefining security in the Middle East redefining security in the Middle East for a generation. So getting rid of the for a generation. So getting rid of the for a generation. So getting rid of the Iranian regime as the uh BBN company Iranian regime as the uh BBN company Iranian regime as the uh BBN company have gotten rid of the proxies of the have gotten rid of the proxies of the have gotten rid of the proxies of the regime earlier which again since October regime earlier which again since October regime earlier which again since October 7 been extremely impressive could 7 been extremely impressive could 7 been extremely impressive could possibly you could saying well there's possibly you could saying well there's possibly you could saying well there's going to be a whole new Middle East and going to be a whole new Middle East and going to be a whole new Middle East and if the if the Middle East were all like if the if the Middle East were all like if the if the Middle East were all like the UAE uh that would be fantastic uh the UAE uh that would be fantastic uh the UAE uh that would be fantastic uh fantastic for all the human beings that fantastic for all the human beings that fantastic for all the human beings that live there. So I think maybe he got live there. So I think maybe he got live there. So I think maybe he got excited by the upside, not quite uh excited by the upside, not quite uh excited by the upside, not quite uh careful enough about the risks or the careful enough about the risks or the careful enough about the risks or the downside because it the number of ways downside because it the number of ways downside because it the number of ways in which this could go wrong. You know, in which this could go wrong. You know, in which this could go wrong. You know, if if we woke up tomorrow or today and a if if we woke up tomorrow or today and a if if we woke up tomorrow or today and a couple of ships have been sunk or a couple of ships have been sunk or a couple of ships have been sunk or a couple hundred of Americans have been couple hundred of Americans have been couple hundred of Americans have been killed, this going to have a very killed, this going to have a very killed, this going to have a very different uh a different image. And you different uh a different image. And you different uh a different image. And you think that this is independent then of think that this is independent then of think that this is independent then of the action with Maduro and independent the action with Maduro and independent the action with Maduro and independent of the big delegation headed to China of the big delegation headed to China of the big delegation headed to China for a big negotiation next month. for a big negotiation next month. for a big negotiation next month. >> Well, I wouldn't say entirely >> Well, I wouldn't say entirely >> Well, I wouldn't say entirely independent. I would think with Madera. independent. I would think with Madera. independent. I would think with Madera. So Trump I think this again this is my So Trump I think this again this is my So Trump I think this again this is my whatever armchair Trumpology but I would whatever armchair Trumpology but I would whatever armchair Trumpology but I would say initially he thought tariffs were a say initially he thought tariffs were a say initially he thought tariffs were a magic wand and every leader thinks if magic wand and every leader thinks if magic wand and every leader thinks if you have a magic wand that's fantastic. you have a magic wand that's fantastic. you have a magic wand that's fantastic. He's tried the tariff magic wand and He's tried the tariff magic wand and He's tried the tariff magic wand and discovered it didn't quite have all the discovered it didn't quite have all the discovered it didn't quite have all the effects that he imagined on liberation effects that he imagined on liberation effects that he imagined on liberation day. Uh he then discovered the American day. Uh he then discovered the American day. Uh he then discovered the American military which genuinely is a huge one military which genuinely is a huge one military which genuinely is a huge one and the Maduro operation was just and the Maduro operation was just and the Maduro operation was just spectacular. I mean again it's a spectacular. I mean again it's a spectacular. I mean again it's a military and intelligence operation. military and intelligence operation. military and intelligence operation. Brilliant. No other country in the world Brilliant. No other country in the world Brilliant. No other country in the world could even imagine doing something like could even imagine doing something like could even imagine doing something like that. And that actually you know makes that. And that actually you know makes that. And that actually you know makes all of us stand taller. It can also all of us stand taller. It can also all of us stand taller. It can also provide a little or historically provide a little or historically provide a little or historically encourages hubris and an imagination encourages hubris and an imagination encourages hubris and an imagination that this magic wand can work in many that this magic wand can work in many that this magic wand can work in many other arenas. I don't mind at all the other arenas. I don't mind at all the other arenas. I don't mind at all the proposition that every other country proposition that every other country proposition that every other country should take account of the fact that the should take account of the fact that the should take account of the fact that the US has the most remarkable military and US has the most remarkable military and US has the most remarkable military and intelligence community in the world. And intelligence community in the world. And intelligence community in the world. And that's not a bad backdrop for China and that's not a bad backdrop for China and that's not a bad backdrop for China and for a China trip. So, I agree that for a China trip. So, I agree that for a China trip. So, I agree that things may not be completely things may not be completely things may not be completely disconnected, but I think in terms of disconnected, but I think in terms of disconnected, but I think in terms of the timing, I mean, right now, when is the timing, I mean, right now, when is the timing, I mean, right now, when is the war going to be over? If you talk the war going to be over? If you talk the war going to be over? If you talk about 3 or 4 weeks, we're we'll already about 3 or 4 weeks, we're we'll already about 3 or 4 weeks, we're we'll already he'll be in China March 29. So, my he'll be in China March 29. So, my he'll be in China March 29. So, my inclination again, if we were just doing inclination again, if we were just doing inclination again, if we were just doing prediction markets, is that he's going prediction markets, is that he's going prediction markets, is that he's going to find a way to declare this over to find a way to declare this over to find a way to declare this over before then because he needs a little before then because he needs a little before then because he needs a little time to get his mind set on that. But if time to get his mind set on that. But if time to get his mind set on that. But if you ask the folks at the defense you ask the folks at the defense you ask the folks at the defense department or if you ask the people in department or if you ask the people in department or if you ask the people in Israel, they're thinking this is another Israel, they're thinking this is another Israel, they're thinking this is another month or beyond this award. month or beyond this award. month or beyond this award. >> So again, just things I don't think are >> So again, just things I don't think are >> So again, just things I don't think are quite, you know, in sync. quite, you know, in sync. quite, you know, in sync. >> Jason's joined us. Professor Allison, >> Jason's joined us. Professor Allison, >> Jason's joined us. Professor Allison, it's always a treat to have you on. it's always a treat to have you on. it's always a treat to have you on. >> Nice to see you. It's just amazing to >> Nice to see you. It's just amazing to >> Nice to see you. It's just amazing to have you on here and to give us this have you on here and to give us this have you on here and to give us this time. If things were to go extremely time. If things were to go extremely time. If things were to go extremely well and Iran went from a monarchy to a well and Iran went from a monarchy to a well and Iran went from a monarchy to a dictatorship and now in this third act dictatorship and now in this third act dictatorship and now in this third act here in the modern day to a democracy here in the modern day to a democracy here in the modern day to a democracy and you actually had a democracy with 93 and you actually had a democracy with 93 and you actually had a democracy with 93 million citizens in the Middle East, million citizens in the Middle East, million citizens in the Middle East, what impact would that have on the what impact would that have on the what impact would that have on the region? We've seen the Gulf monarchies region? We've seen the Gulf monarchies region? We've seen the Gulf monarchies evolve human rights, but they're still evolve human rights, but they're still evolve human rights, but they're still monarchies. You have one other I I guess monarchies. You have one other I I guess monarchies. You have one other I I guess democracy in the region in Israel, but democracy in the region in Israel, but democracy in the region in Israel, but this could be extraordinary if it was a this could be extraordinary if it was a this could be extraordinary if it was a democracy. But what would that mean to democracy. But what would that mean to democracy. But what would that mean to the to the global chessboard? the to the global chessboard? the to the global chessboard? >> Well, it's a good question. I mean, if >> Well, it's a good question. I mean, if >> Well, it's a good question. I mean, if this could occur, it would be this could occur, it would be this could occur, it would be spectacular spectacular spectacular even I think but I would say this is way even I think but I would say this is way even I think but I would say this is way way way too ambitious. There's a hundred way way too ambitious. There's a hundred way way too ambitious. There's a hundred things that would be wonderful outcomes things that would be wonderful outcomes things that would be wonderful outcomes better than what's likely that would be better than what's likely that would be better than what's likely that would be short of that. I remember uh in Iraq short of that. I remember uh in Iraq short of that. I remember uh in Iraq after Bush failed to find nuclear after Bush failed to find nuclear after Bush failed to find nuclear weapons which was the initial I would weapons which was the initial I would weapons which was the initial I would say somewhat cucked up rationale for our say somewhat cucked up rationale for our say somewhat cucked up rationale for our going into Iraq. Kandi Rice who was the going into Iraq. Kandi Rice who was the going into Iraq. Kandi Rice who was the secretary gave a speech about well how secretary gave a speech about well how secretary gave a speech about well how wonderful it'll be when Iraq is a wonderful it'll be when Iraq is a wonderful it'll be when Iraq is a democracy and market economy quote democracy and market economy quote democracy and market economy quote radiating stability through the Middle radiating stability through the Middle radiating stability through the Middle East. So we're pretty good at doing I East. So we're pretty good at doing I East. So we're pretty good at doing I have a dream you know in that version. I have a dream you know in that version. I have a dream you know in that version. I think that's a way way way stretch. I think that's a way way way stretch. I think that's a way way way stretch. I would be very happy with a regime there would be very happy with a regime there would be very happy with a regime there that simply was not about uh building that simply was not about uh building that simply was not about uh building nuclear weapons, was not about building nuclear weapons, was not about building nuclear weapons, was not about building missiles that threaten the US and our missiles that threaten the US and our missiles that threaten the US and our friends and allies in the region, and friends and allies in the region, and friends and allies in the region, and not about supporting proxies. And if not about supporting proxies. And if not about supporting proxies. And if it's a pretty cruel regime, it's a pretty cruel regime, it's a pretty cruel regime, unfortunately, that's unfortunate for unfortunately, that's unfortunate for unfortunately, that's unfortunate for the Iranian people, the Persian people. the Iranian people, the Persian people. the Iranian people, the Persian people. Uh when I'm a student of history, I love Uh when I'm a student of history, I love Uh when I'm a student of history, I love Persia. You know, I remember uh Cyrus Persia. You know, I remember uh Cyrus Persia. You know, I remember uh Cyrus and I remember uh the Pelpeneisian war. and I remember uh the Pelpeneisian war. and I remember uh the Pelpeneisian war. I remember, you know, this is a I remember, you know, this is a I remember, you know, this is a fantastic culture in history. They've fantastic culture in history. They've fantastic culture in history. They've been hijacked by a terrible, terrible been hijacked by a terrible, terrible been hijacked by a terrible, terrible group of people. And if those people can group of people. And if those people can group of people. And if those people can be somehow ousted, you know, wonderful be somehow ousted, you know, wonderful be somehow ousted, you know, wonderful for Iranian people and wonderful for the for Iranian people and wonderful for the for Iranian people and wonderful for the world. I I if I were betting it again, world. I I if I were betting it again, world. I I if I were betting it again, I'd say go back to the first point. It I'd say go back to the first point. It I'd say go back to the first point. It questions uncertainty, questions uncertainty, questions uncertainty, finding signals in the noise, extremely finding signals in the noise, extremely finding signals in the noise, extremely difficult. But if I rebuilding it, it'll difficult. But if I rebuilding it, it'll difficult. But if I rebuilding it, it'll end up that the guys with the guns will end up that the guys with the guns will end up that the guys with the guns will in some version uh be the next in some version uh be the next in some version uh be the next iteration. And uh if they're tamer iteration. And uh if they're tamer iteration. And uh if they're tamer and less uh uh determined uh to threaten and less uh uh determined uh to threaten and less uh uh determined uh to threaten our interests, our interests, our interests, will this have been worth it? Well, will this have been worth it? Well, will this have been worth it? Well, again, we'll have to look at, you know, again, we'll have to look at, you know, again, we'll have to look at, you know, over the longer run. I think the other over the longer run. I think the other over the longer run. I think the other thing that we know about wars is that thing that we know about wars is that thing that we know about wars is that they're unpredictable and that they have they're unpredictable and that they have they're unpredictable and that they have many unanticipated consequences. Now I many unanticipated consequences. Now I many unanticipated consequences. Now I think as we watch what's happening now think as we watch what's happening now think as we watch what's happening now and see what impact does that have on and see what impact does that have on and see what impact does that have on oil and gas prices predictable so you oil and gas prices predictable so you oil and gas prices predictable so you can see and going and going well what can see and going and going well what can see and going and going well what impact does that have on other countries impact does that have on other countries impact does that have on other countries are huge so the number of countries now are huge so the number of countries now are huge so the number of countries now whose economies are being disrupted by whose economies are being disrupted by whose economies are being disrupted by this impact and therefore blaming us for this impact and therefore blaming us for this impact and therefore blaming us for it. So I had a call from someone in it. So I had a call from someone in it. So I had a call from someone in Taiwan uh yesterday saying wait a minute Taiwan uh yesterday saying wait a minute Taiwan uh yesterday saying wait a minute did anybody think what it's doing for us did anybody think what it's doing for us did anybody think what it's doing for us since they had about half of their since they had about half of their since they had about half of their their electricity comes from their their electricity comes from their their electricity comes from their natural gas that that is now come you natural gas that that is now come you natural gas that that is now come you know now not not coming. Uh if you ask know now not not coming. Uh if you ask know now not not coming. Uh if you ask about what is this meaning for I for about what is this meaning for I for about what is this meaning for I for Ukraine, all the patriots that were to Ukraine, all the patriots that were to Ukraine, all the patriots that were to hope to prevent missile strikes from hope to prevent missile strikes from hope to prevent missile strikes from Russia on Ukraine are now in the Middle Russia on Ukraine are now in the Middle Russia on Ukraine are now in the Middle East. East. East. >> So that's many more target. So there's >> So that's many more target. So there's >> So that's many more target. So there's just unfortunately it unfolds in so many just unfortunately it unfolds in so many just unfortunately it unfolds in so many so many different directions. Now I so many different directions. Now I so many different directions. Now I don't want to seem too pessimistic about don't want to seem too pessimistic about don't want to seem too pessimistic about it because again I think we've been it because again I think we've been it because again I think we've been shocked fortunately on the upside by how shocked fortunately on the upside by how shocked fortunately on the upside by how uh professional our military has and uh professional our military has and uh professional our military has and intelligence folks have been and also intelligence folks have been and also intelligence folks have been and also how pathetic uh or hollow the Iranians how pathetic uh or hollow the Iranians how pathetic uh or hollow the Iranians have been. First day of the attack, I have been. First day of the attack, I have been. First day of the attack, I was at the defense department and I gave was at the defense department and I gave was at the defense department and I gave them a list of 11 things that I would do them a list of 11 things that I would do them a list of 11 things that I would do and be capable of doing if I were and be capable of doing if I were and be capable of doing if I were playing the Iranian hand. And uh they playing the Iranian hand. And uh they playing the Iranian hand. And uh they seem to be seem to be seem to be I mean I I I hardly even want to say out I mean I I I hardly even want to say out I mean I I I hardly even want to say out loud, but they they act like a paper loud, but they they act like a paper loud, but they they act like a paper tiger. tiger. tiger. >> Do you think there's there's more damage >> Do you think there's there's more damage >> Do you think there's there's more damage that can be done by being more that can be done by being more that can be done by being more successful? You know, if we think back successful? You know, if we think back successful? You know, if we think back to Iran, Iran is twice as many people, to Iran, Iran is twice as many people, to Iran, Iran is twice as many people, 100 million versus 50 million, four 100 million versus 50 million, four 100 million versus 50 million, four times the land area, a much better times the land area, a much better times the land area, a much better equipped military, and arguably the equipped military, and arguably the equipped military, and arguably the military system, the regime is embedded military system, the regime is embedded military system, the regime is embedded in every aspect of industry. So the more in every aspect of industry. So the more in every aspect of industry. So the more successful the United States is in successful the United States is in successful the United States is in dismantling dismantling dismantling the Iranian regime and as was advised by the Iranian regime and as was advised by the Iranian regime and as was advised by Condisa Rice who apparently was just in Condisa Rice who apparently was just in Condisa Rice who apparently was just in the White House today and advising the the White House today and advising the the White House today and advising the president and publicly stated it's time president and publicly stated it's time president and publicly stated it's time to finish them off. It's time to go all to finish them off. It's time to go all to finish them off. It's time to go all the way etc. Does that not then leave a the way etc. Does that not then leave a the way etc. Does that not then leave a country with no infrastructure, no country with no infrastructure, no country with no infrastructure, no leadership, 100 million people in leadership, 100 million people in leadership, 100 million people in tatters, and that's the classic breeding tatters, and that's the classic breeding tatters, and that's the classic breeding ground for some of these extremist ground for some of these extremist ground for some of these extremist groups to seize control and seize power groups to seize control and seize power groups to seize control and seize power and we don't have the resources to go in and we don't have the resources to go in and we don't have the resources to go in and have another multi-deade Afghanistan and have another multi-deade Afghanistan and have another multi-deade Afghanistan Iraq problem. Iraq problem. Iraq problem. >> I'm afraid I agree. Yes, I think the the >> I'm afraid I agree. Yes, I think the the >> I'm afraid I agree. Yes, I think the the uncertainties about that I mean you can uncertainties about that I mean you can uncertainties about that I mean you can do four or five different scenarios for do four or five different scenarios for do four or five different scenarios for how this might conceivably end it could how this might conceivably end it could how this might conceivably end it could end up being an extended civil war in in end up being an extended civil war in in end up being an extended civil war in in Iran among the various national groups Iran among the various national groups Iran among the various national groups even some of them possibly seceding. So even some of them possibly seceding. So even some of them possibly seceding. So again, fairly chaotic. Look like Syria again, fairly chaotic. Look like Syria again, fairly chaotic. Look like Syria plus. Okay. It could look like Iran or plus. Okay. It could look like Iran or plus. Okay. It could look like Iran or Afghanistan. Well, excuse me. We were Afghanistan. Well, excuse me. We were Afghanistan. Well, excuse me. We were there for more than a decade with there for more than a decade with there for more than a decade with unlimited resources. Hardly any unlimited resources. Hardly any unlimited resources. Hardly any constraints on the number of people. And constraints on the number of people. And constraints on the number of people. And how did that work out? So I I I say that how did that work out? So I I I say that how did that work out? So I I I say that I'm I'm a small C conservative and I'm I'm a small C conservative and I'm I'm a small C conservative and kind of think history is not always kind of think history is not always kind of think history is not always certainly not the only guide but is a certainly not the only guide but is a certainly not the only guide but is a good place to start. So I'm I'm I would good place to start. So I'm I'm I would good place to start. So I'm I'm I would say nervous. Yeah. say nervous. Yeah. say nervous. Yeah. >> Is it too late to have a Venezuelan >> Is it too late to have a Venezuelan >> Is it too late to have a Venezuelan outcome where we've taken out the head outcome where we've taken out the head outcome where we've taken out the head of the snake and we've simply replaced of the snake and we've simply replaced of the snake and we've simply replaced it? The snake can continue operating and it? The snake can continue operating and it? The snake can continue operating and living without too much destructive living without too much destructive living without too much destructive damage and effect. But it seems like we damage and effect. But it seems like we damage and effect. But it seems like we may be a little too far gone now in Iran may be a little too far gone now in Iran may be a little too far gone now in Iran and that to take this all the way might and that to take this all the way might and that to take this all the way might be very difficult to manage. be very difficult to manage. be very difficult to manage. >> Is it too late? >> Is it too late? >> Is it too late? >> If I were again that we're all in the >> If I were again that we're all in the >> If I were again that we're all in the dark and all the uncertainty. So back to dark and all the uncertainty. So back to dark and all the uncertainty. So back to point one, but after that I would say point one, but after that I would say point one, but after that I would say Trump is erratic, impulsive, Trump is erratic, impulsive, Trump is erratic, impulsive, but he has some coordinates and one of but he has some coordinates and one of but he has some coordinates and one of them is is his power. them is is his power. them is is his power. >> November 3rd is a big day for him. He's >> November 3rd is a big day for him. He's >> November 3rd is a big day for him. He's focused on that. The economy is a focused on that. The economy is a focused on that. The economy is a crucial element of that. That's part of crucial element of that. That's part of crucial element of that. That's part of the framing of the of the China the framing of the of the China the framing of the of the China relationship. relationship. relationship. The impact of this on the economy is The impact of this on the economy is The impact of this on the economy is already evident. Okay. And could become already evident. Okay. And could become already evident. Okay. And could become more evident. The public opinion again. more evident. The public opinion again. more evident. The public opinion again. I think he's I saw today uh uh in the I think he's I saw today uh uh in the I think he's I saw today uh uh in the journal that he's sent Higs Higsmith out journal that he's sent Higs Higsmith out journal that he's sent Higs Higsmith out to sell the war. to sell the war. to sell the war. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> Good luck. >> Good luck. >> Good luck. I'm not sure he can sell. Uh so the I'm not sure he can sell. Uh so the I'm not sure he can sell. Uh so the public opinion of this it's about six to public opinion of this it's about six to public opinion of this it's about six to four unfavorable four unfavorable four unfavorable >> because they didn't make the case for >> because they didn't make the case for >> because they didn't make the case for the war in advance. the war in advance. the war in advance. >> Uh the impact of this on other parties >> Uh the impact of this on other parties >> Uh the impact of this on other parties including parties that we care about is including parties that we care about is including parties that we care about is negative. Uh so I I can easily imagine negative. Uh so I I can easily imagine negative. Uh so I I can easily imagine in the next week even in the next week even in the next week even declare if you look at that sheet the declare if you look at that sheet the declare if you look at that sheet the way in which he's left himself room to way in which he's left himself room to way in which he's left himself room to declare victory declare victory declare victory at having as you say had cut off the at having as you say had cut off the at having as you say had cut off the head of the stake destroyed their milit head of the stake destroyed their milit head of the stake destroyed their milit their nuclear capabilities destroy their their nuclear capabilities destroy their their nuclear capabilities destroy their ability to project power or in the ability to project power or in the ability to project power or in the defense department we always say destroy defense department we always say destroy defense department we always say destroy or degrade degrade has a lot of or degrade degrade has a lot of or degrade degrade has a lot of dimensions as you would point out and uh dimensions as you would point out and uh dimensions as you would point out and uh now it's up to the Iranian people to now it's up to the Iranian people to now it's up to the Iranian people to seize their own government and take seize their own government and take seize their own government and take advantage of themselves. The difficulty advantage of themselves. The difficulty advantage of themselves. The difficulty with that will be BB wants to fight on with that will be BB wants to fight on with that will be BB wants to fight on till the regime is destroyed till the regime is destroyed till the regime is destroyed and that'll be an interesting struggle and that'll be an interesting struggle and that'll be an interesting struggle to see how that goes. Earlier Trump to see how that goes. Earlier Trump to see how that goes. Earlier Trump demonstrated that when he thought it was demonstrated that when he thought it was demonstrated that when he thought it was in American interest he was prepared to in American interest he was prepared to in American interest he was prepared to pull BB's chain. So we'll see. This is pull BB's chain. So we'll see. This is pull BB's chain. So we'll see. This is uh I think in before we move out of the uh I think in before we move out of the uh I think in before we move out of the Mina region a topic that's coming up Mina region a topic that's coming up Mina region a topic that's coming up there's obviously no support for this there's obviously no support for this there's obviously no support for this war in America most Americans put war in America most Americans put war in America most Americans put foreign affairs today at one or two% of foreign affairs today at one or two% of foreign affairs today at one or two% of their concern economy and many other their concern economy and many other their concern economy and many other issues are are high on their list and issues are are high on their list and issues are are high on their list and he's been pretty clear hey we're not he's been pretty clear hey we're not he's been pretty clear hey we're not going to put boots on the ground and going to put boots on the ground and going to put boots on the ground and then there's this anti-semitic then there's this anti-semitic then there's this anti-semitic underpinning that's happening in America underpinning that's happening in America underpinning that's happening in America that's become pretty acute and you had that's become pretty acute and you had that's become pretty acute and you had uh Rubia who we mentioned earlier say, uh Rubia who we mentioned earlier say, uh Rubia who we mentioned earlier say, "Hey, we did this because uh the "Hey, we did this because uh the "Hey, we did this because uh the Israelis were going in anyway and we had Israelis were going in anyway and we had Israelis were going in anyway and we had no choice." And then they walked that no choice." And then they walked that no choice." And then they walked that back. Explain to the audience how we back. Explain to the audience how we back. Explain to the audience how we should look at that turn of events where should look at that turn of events where should look at that turn of events where there's a group of people in America, there's a group of people in America, there's a group of people in America, specifically people in the MAGA party, specifically people in the MAGA party, specifically people in the MAGA party, who believe Trump has betrayed them and who believe Trump has betrayed them and who believe Trump has betrayed them and that he's captured by the Israeli um that he's captured by the Israeli um that he's captured by the Israeli um government in some way and he's doing government in some way and he's doing government in some way and he's doing their bidding. I'm not saying that. their bidding. I'm not saying that. their bidding. I'm not saying that. That's my perspective, but that is a an That's my perspective, but that is a an That's my perspective, but that is a an undertone that we're seeing and that's undertone that we're seeing and that's undertone that we're seeing and that's something new in our lifetime. I think something new in our lifetime. I think something new in our lifetime. I think >> it it certainly is. So, this is a big >> it it certainly is. So, this is a big >> it it certainly is. So, this is a big topic, but I'd say when I talk about it, topic, but I'd say when I talk about it, topic, but I'd say when I talk about it, I I I say I'm pro-Israeli I I I say I'm pro-Israeli I I I say I'm pro-Israeli and anti-BB. So, is BB is not Israel. and anti-BB. So, is BB is not Israel. and anti-BB. So, is BB is not Israel. The people whom I know mostly and The people whom I know mostly and The people whom I know mostly and respect mostly in Israel are the respect mostly in Israel are the respect mostly in Israel are the national security barons. the people national security barons. the people national security barons. the people who've been the chief of staff or the who've been the chief of staff or the who've been the chief of staff or the head of Mossad or the head of Shinbet or head of Mossad or the head of Shinbet or head of Mossad or the head of Shinbet or the people that work in that in those the people that work in that in those the people that work in that in those structures and they believe that BB is structures and they believe that BB is structures and they believe that BB is actually destroying the Bengorians actually destroying the Bengorians actually destroying the Bengorians Israeli democracy that they cared about. Israeli democracy that they cared about. Israeli democracy that they cared about. Or if take Tom Freriedman, it's pretty Or if take Tom Freriedman, it's pretty Or if take Tom Freriedman, it's pretty hard to accuse him of being anti- is, hard to accuse him of being anti- is, hard to accuse him of being anti- is, you know, anti-Semitic. Uh but he's been you know, anti-Semitic. Uh but he's been you know, anti-Semitic. Uh but he's been I think very clear and very uh I think very clear and very uh I think very clear and very uh courageous in pointing out that what courageous in pointing out that what courageous in pointing out that what BB's doing to Israel's democracy is BB's doing to Israel's democracy is BB's doing to Israel's democracy is really destroying it and the impact of really destroying it and the impact of really destroying it and the impact of that on Jewish kids in America. I mean I that on Jewish kids in America. I mean I that on Jewish kids in America. I mean I say this on campus where they want to be say this on campus where they want to be say this on campus where they want to be proud of Israel. They uh they deserve to proud of Israel. They uh they deserve to proud of Israel. They uh they deserve to be proud of the country that has been be proud of the country that has been be proud of the country that has been built over these years, but they look at built over these years, but they look at built over these years, but they look at the behavior of these crazy right-wing the behavior of these crazy right-wing the behavior of these crazy right-wing settlers and their activities in the in settlers and their activities in the in settlers and their activities in the in the occupied West Bank or they look at the occupied West Bank or they look at the occupied West Bank or they look at some of the activities in Gaza or they some of the activities in Gaza or they some of the activities in Gaza or they look at now the kind of unlimited uh uh look at now the kind of unlimited uh uh look at now the kind of unlimited uh uh war without any any even attempt to make war without any any even attempt to make war without any any even attempt to make arguments about proportionality and just arguments about proportionality and just arguments about proportionality and just say, "Wait a minute, that's not the say, "Wait a minute, that's not the say, "Wait a minute, that's not the country I want to be proud of. I want to country I want to be proud of. I want to country I want to be proud of. I want to be proud of of Rabbin's Israel. I want be proud of of Rabbin's Israel. I want be proud of of Rabbin's Israel. I want to be proud of Ahud Barak's Israel. I to be proud of Ahud Barak's Israel. I to be proud of Ahud Barak's Israel. I want to be proud of Benorian's Israel. want to be proud of Benorian's Israel. want to be proud of Benorian's Israel. And I'm I'm pretty much of that of that And I'm I'm pretty much of that of that And I'm I'm pretty much of that of that persuasion. I think what what uh what BB persuasion. I think what what uh what BB persuasion. I think what what uh what BB risks in this and risked earlier uh with risks in this and risked earlier uh with risks in this and risked earlier uh with uh citing I mean inter interfering in uh citing I mean inter interfering in uh citing I mean inter interfering in American politics American politics American politics in invites push back. So in invites push back. So in invites push back. So I think this could have a big long-term I think this could have a big long-term I think this could have a big long-term negative effect both in the Democratic negative effect both in the Democratic negative effect both in the Democratic party and the Republican party party and the Republican party party and the Republican party especially under under younger people. especially under under younger people. especially under under younger people. If you look at the polling for the If you look at the polling for the If you look at the polling for the under30s on Israel, it's just like under30s on Israel, it's just like under30s on Israel, it's just like shocking. Yeah. shocking. Yeah. shocking. Yeah. >> Can we move to China because I think >> Can we move to China because I think >> Can we move to China because I think that again this is going to be the big that again this is going to be the big that again this is going to be the big story over the next month. You've said story over the next month. You've said story over the next month. You've said publicly that ousting Maduro from publicly that ousting Maduro from publicly that ousting Maduro from Venezuela could embolden China to Venezuela could embolden China to Venezuela could embolden China to accelerate a Taiwan takeover. The CIA, accelerate a Taiwan takeover. The CIA, accelerate a Taiwan takeover. The CIA, it has been reported in media, warned it has been reported in media, warned it has been reported in media, warned Tim Cook of Apple and other tech Tim Cook of Apple and other tech Tim Cook of Apple and other tech companies about a possible invasion as companies about a possible invasion as companies about a possible invasion as soon as next year. You've separately met soon as next year. You've separately met soon as next year. You've separately met publicly with Chinese officials. What's publicly with Chinese officials. What's publicly with Chinese officials. What's your view on the likelihood and the your view on the likelihood and the your view on the likelihood and the timeline of a China attempted takeover timeline of a China attempted takeover timeline of a China attempted takeover of Taiwan and what are these kind of of Taiwan and what are these kind of of Taiwan and what are these kind of motivating factors that might make that motivating factors that might make that motivating factors that might make that happen sooner? happen sooner? happen sooner? >> So, uh, let me clarify. I I'm not sure >> So, uh, let me clarify. I I'm not sure >> So, uh, let me clarify. I I'm not sure or I may have been misinterpreted, but or I may have been misinterpreted, but or I may have been misinterpreted, but obviously the Chinese watch very obviously the Chinese watch very obviously the Chinese watch very carefully. They study wars and they will carefully. They study wars and they will carefully. They study wars and they will learn lessons from what's going on here, learn lessons from what's going on here, learn lessons from what's going on here, but I don't think that is a I don't but I don't think that is a I don't but I don't think that is a I don't think the Venezuelan operation other think the Venezuelan operation other think the Venezuelan operation other than making them feel envious about the than making them feel envious about the than making them feel envious about the capabilities will impact their capabilities will impact their capabilities will impact their likelihood of attacking Taiwan. So likelihood of attacking Taiwan. So likelihood of attacking Taiwan. So Taiwan number one, I think the Taiwan number one, I think the Taiwan number one, I think the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan this likelihood of an attack on Taiwan this likelihood of an attack on Taiwan this year or next year or even into 28, but year or next year or even into 28, but year or next year or even into 28, but let me just do 26 and 27 absent some let me just do 26 and 27 absent some let me just do 26 and 27 absent some major provocation by Taiwan or some major provocation by Taiwan or some major provocation by Taiwan or some other third incident is very low. I put other third incident is very low. I put other third incident is very low. I put it at about where the it at about where the it at about where the where the prediction markets are 5% or where the prediction markets are 5% or where the prediction markets are 5% or something low. So I'm not counting on something low. So I'm not counting on something low. So I'm not counting on that. Second, that. Second, that. Second, >> why is that so low? I'm just curious >> why is that so low? I'm just curious >> why is that so low? I'm just curious >> why 5%. >> why 5%. >> why 5%. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Okay. Because first they they have a >> Okay. Because first they they have a >> Okay. Because first they they have a theory of the case of what they call theory of the case of what they call theory of the case of what they call peaceful reunification and they think peaceful reunification and they think peaceful reunification and they think things are evolving in that direction. things are evolving in that direction. things are evolving in that direction. >> The theory of the case is that the >> The theory of the case is that the >> The theory of the case is that the current uh government which is a DPP current uh government which is a DPP current uh government which is a DPP government government government currently is is stymied by its currently is is stymied by its currently is is stymied by its opposition in the parliament. So they opposition in the parliament. So they opposition in the parliament. So they can't even buy the arm sales that we can't even buy the arm sales that we can't even buy the arm sales that we previously gave them. There's 11 billion previously gave them. There's 11 billion previously gave them. There's 11 billion arm sales that the Chinese have arm sales that the Chinese have arm sales that the Chinese have complained about. But Taiwan is the complained about. But Taiwan is the complained about. But Taiwan is the legislature probably won't buy half of legislature probably won't buy half of legislature probably won't buy half of that. Okay. So the current president is that. Okay. So the current president is that. Okay. So the current president is struggling. struggling. struggling. There's going to be an election in There's going to be an election in There's going to be an election in January 28th and they think it's likely January 28th and they think it's likely January 28th and they think it's likely that the former party, the KMT, will be that the former party, the KMT, will be that the former party, the KMT, will be elected. somebody they'll be much more elected. somebody they'll be much more elected. somebody they'll be much more sympathetic to China and to a an sympathetic to China and to a an sympathetic to China and to a an evolving relationship. So that's number evolving relationship. So that's number evolving relationship. So that's number one. Number two, the Chinese have been one. Number two, the Chinese have been one. Number two, the Chinese have been engaged in a a deep deep purge of all of engaged in a a deep deep purge of all of engaged in a a deep deep purge of all of their military leadership. I mean, it's their military leadership. I mean, it's their military leadership. I mean, it's hard to believe and you read about the hard to believe and you read about the hard to believe and you read about the paper from time to time that he fired paper from time to time that he fired paper from time to time that he fired this guy, he fired this guy. He's fired this guy, he fired this guy. He's fired this guy, he fired this guy. He's fired the equivalent of every fourstar in our the equivalent of every fourstar in our the equivalent of every fourstar in our whole political system and every whole political system and every whole political system and every combatant commander and every commander combatant commander and every commander combatant commander and every commander who would be commandering the force who would be commandering the force who would be commandering the force commanding the forces over you know to commanding the forces over you know to commanding the forces over you know to deal with Taiwan. So while they've been deal with Taiwan. So while they've been deal with Taiwan. So while they've been building up that military capability building up that military capability building up that military capability takes a long time to get that back into takes a long time to get that back into takes a long time to get that back into order in my view. So I would say that order in my view. So I would say that order in my view. So I would say that part makes me feel less likely. Third, I part makes me feel less likely. Third, I part makes me feel less likely. Third, I think he understands that uh if he were think he understands that uh if he were think he understands that uh if he were to do this, there's a risk, not a to do this, there's a risk, not a to do this, there's a risk, not a certainty, but a risk that the US would certainty, but a risk that the US would certainty, but a risk that the US would become involved and that the impact of become involved and that the impact of become involved and that the impact of that either on China's economy, which that either on China's economy, which that either on China's economy, which he's got to worry about first, then also he's got to worry about first, then also he's got to worry about first, then also on its evolution, would be significant. on its evolution, would be significant. on its evolution, would be significant. So, I'm I'm looking for uh and oh, So, I'm I'm looking for uh and oh, So, I'm I'm looking for uh and oh, sorry. Finally in Trump uh he has the sorry. Finally in Trump uh he has the sorry. Finally in Trump uh he has the most accommodating president uh that most accommodating president uh that most accommodating president uh that China is likely to see with respect to China is likely to see with respect to China is likely to see with respect to Taiwan. So Trump has made no secrets. I Taiwan. So Trump has made no secrets. I Taiwan. So Trump has made no secrets. I mean he talks publicly of his views mean he talks publicly of his views mean he talks publicly of his views about Taiwan and I think a couple of the about Taiwan and I think a couple of the about Taiwan and I think a couple of the memoirs there's this discussion where memoirs there's this discussion where memoirs there's this discussion where he's in the oval and he's talking about he's in the oval and he's talking about he's in the oval and he's talking about Taiwan and he picked somebody asked him Taiwan and he picked somebody asked him Taiwan and he picked somebody asked him about Taiwan. He picks up one of those about Taiwan. He picks up one of those about Taiwan. He picks up one of those Sharpies and goes, you know, on a spot Sharpies and goes, you know, on a spot Sharpies and goes, you know, on a spot on the Resolute desk and he says that on the Resolute desk and he says that on the Resolute desk and he says that Taiwan. Then he draws his hand around Taiwan. Then he draws his hand around Taiwan. Then he draws his hand around the whole desk. He said that's China. So the whole desk. He said that's China. So the whole desk. He said that's China. So I'd say I'm less worried about Taiwan in I'd say I'm less worried about Taiwan in I'd say I'm less worried about Taiwan in the on the on the current path. Now over the on the on the current path. Now over the on the on the current path. Now over the longer run, the Chinese are the longer run, the Chinese are the longer run, the Chinese are absolutely clear, she and all the absolutely clear, she and all the absolutely clear, she and all the leadership that Taiwan is an inseparable leadership that Taiwan is an inseparable leadership that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China and how that could be part of China and how that could be part of China and how that could be satisfied in a way that allow the satisfied in a way that allow the satisfied in a way that allow the Taiwanese Taiwanese Taiwanese the degree or substantial degree of the the degree or substantial degree of the the degree or substantial degree of the uh freedom for both their economy and uh freedom for both their economy and uh freedom for both their economy and their society is the challenge that their society is the challenge that their society is the challenge that we've been struggling with for a long we've been struggling with for a long we've been struggling with for a long time. But the good news is we've been time. But the good news is we've been time. But the good news is we've been doing this for 50 years and Taiwan has doing this for 50 years and Taiwan has doing this for 50 years and Taiwan has never seen such a better, you know, such never seen such a better, you know, such never seen such a better, you know, such such circumstances. So I say to the such circumstances. So I say to the such circumstances. So I say to the Taiwanese friends, you know, basically Taiwanese friends, you know, basically Taiwanese friends, you know, basically don't uh don't screw it up. don't uh don't screw it up. don't uh don't screw it up. >> Are we taking the right course of >> Are we taking the right course of >> Are we taking the right course of action, do you think? I guess the big action, do you think? I guess the big action, do you think? I guess the big question for for you is what's the question for for you is what's the question for for you is what's the strategic imperative strategic imperative strategic imperative to keep Taiwan from falling under direct to keep Taiwan from falling under direct to keep Taiwan from falling under direct Chinese control for the United States Chinese control for the United States Chinese control for the United States and are we taking the right actions to and are we taking the right actions to and are we taking the right actions to hedge our bets if you will against that hedge our bets if you will against that hedge our bets if you will against that happening meaning onshoring of happening meaning onshoring of happening meaning onshoring of semiconductor manufacturing but also semiconductor manufacturing but also semiconductor manufacturing but also maybe from a defense perspective and maybe from a defense perspective and maybe from a defense perspective and positioning perspective you can share a positioning perspective you can share a positioning perspective you can share a little bit about whether we're little bit about whether we're little bit about whether we're >> sure that's a big question so first >> sure that's a big question so first >> sure that's a big question so first Scott Bassent, the Secretary of the Scott Bassent, the Secretary of the Scott Bassent, the Secretary of the Treasury, when he's asked about this, he Treasury, when he's asked about this, he Treasury, when he's asked about this, he says the biggest threat that he's ever says the biggest threat that he's ever says the biggest threat that he's ever seen is the fact that 96% of the seen is the fact that 96% of the seen is the fact that 96% of the advanced semiconductors come from one advanced semiconductors come from one advanced semiconductors come from one small island that could become cut off. small island that could become cut off. small island that could become cut off. So TSMC, as you all have discussed So TSMC, as you all have discussed So TSMC, as you all have discussed before, produces the advanced before, produces the advanced before, produces the advanced semiconductors for essentially everybody semiconductors for essentially everybody semiconductors for essentially everybody of whom we're the principal consumer. of whom we're the principal consumer. of whom we're the principal consumer. and we prevent them uh shipping this to and we prevent them uh shipping this to and we prevent them uh shipping this to China. That's a pretty complicated China. That's a pretty complicated China. That's a pretty complicated situation to begin with. Uh secondly, situation to begin with. Uh secondly, situation to begin with. Uh secondly, Taiwan is halfway around the world as Taiwan is halfway around the world as Taiwan is halfway around the world as President Trump says and 90 miles off President Trump says and 90 miles off President Trump says and 90 miles off the shore of China and we're far away the shore of China and we're far away the shore of China and we're far away and we have a lot of other things to and we have a lot of other things to and we have a lot of other things to worry about. So, it's a little bit like worry about. So, it's a little bit like worry about. So, it's a little bit like Cuba. So inherently indefensible Cuba. So inherently indefensible Cuba. So inherently indefensible if China were seriously determined to if China were seriously determined to if China were seriously determined to either destroy it or to take it. Now on either destroy it or to take it. Now on either destroy it or to take it. Now on the other hand the other hand the other hand since the opening to China and the since the opening to China and the since the opening to China and the Shanghai communicate there's been an Shanghai communicate there's been an Shanghai communicate there's been an agreement of maintaining a status quo uh agreement of maintaining a status quo uh agreement of maintaining a status quo uh with the US commitment being what's with the US commitment being what's with the US commitment being what's called strategic ambiguity in which uh called strategic ambiguity in which uh called strategic ambiguity in which uh the US and China have been committed to the US and China have been committed to the US and China have been committed to Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan internal development is left to its own internal development is left to its own internal development is left to its own device and China doesn't use military device and China doesn't use military device and China doesn't use military force to prevent that but we say Taiwan force to prevent that but we say Taiwan force to prevent that but we say Taiwan is there's one China and the only is there's one China and the only is there's one China and the only China's capital is Beijing and then we China's capital is Beijing and then we China's capital is Beijing and then we have a a little bit of ambiguous way to have a a little bit of ambiguous way to have a a little bit of ambiguous way to talk about the relationship between talk about the relationship between talk about the relationship between Taiwan and China but certainly letting Taiwan and China but certainly letting Taiwan and China but certainly letting it evolve in any way that the parties it evolve in any way that the parties it evolve in any way that the parties would be prepared to live with. Most would be prepared to live with. Most would be prepared to live with. Most people expecting that over time this people expecting that over time this people expecting that over time this relationship will work its way out. And relationship will work its way out. And relationship will work its way out. And I when I talk to Chinese about it, I say I when I talk to Chinese about it, I say I when I talk to Chinese about it, I say to them, first, you've never seen 50 to them, first, you've never seen 50 to them, first, you've never seen 50 better years on either side of the better years on either side of the better years on either side of the straits. So this has been fantastic for straits. So this has been fantastic for straits. So this has been fantastic for both societies in terms of what they both societies in terms of what they both societies in terms of what they care about. And secondly, if they look care about. And secondly, if they look care about. And secondly, if they look at this situation, if China's at this situation, if China's at this situation, if China's core strategy is correct, which is the core strategy is correct, which is the core strategy is correct, which is the inexurable rise of China, and that inexurable rise of China, and that inexurable rise of China, and that continues continues continues in another decade or two, Taiwan will in another decade or two, Taiwan will in another decade or two, Taiwan will look like a fleet look like a fleet look like a fleet and therefore not going to be an issue. and therefore not going to be an issue. and therefore not going to be an issue. If it if China's main narrative doesn't If it if China's main narrative doesn't If it if China's main narrative doesn't work, work, work, Taiwan is not going to be their biggest Taiwan is not going to be their biggest Taiwan is not going to be their biggest problem. So they should work on the problem. So they should work on the problem. So they should work on the other issues. Yeah. other issues. Yeah. other issues. Yeah. >> If you think about China projecting >> If you think about China projecting >> If you think about China projecting influence around the world, how influence around the world, how influence around the world, how important is it for them to continue to important is it for them to continue to important is it for them to continue to do that? There was recently an objective do that? There was recently an objective do that? There was recently an objective I think of a GDP growth in the 5% range. I think of a GDP growth in the 5% range. I think of a GDP growth in the 5% range. Four to 5%. Is that right? For China, Four to 5%. Is that right? For China, Four to 5%. Is that right? For China, which which which >> four and a half to five. Yeah. >> four and a half to five. Yeah. >> four and a half to five. Yeah. >> Four and a half to five, which is a >> Four and a half to five, which is a >> Four and a half to five, which is a record low in recent history for them. record low in recent history for them. record low in recent history for them. Is it imperative for China to continue Is it imperative for China to continue Is it imperative for China to continue to extend geopolitical and economic to extend geopolitical and economic to extend geopolitical and economic influence around the world to grow its influence around the world to grow its influence around the world to grow its economy? You know, going back to the economy? You know, going back to the economy? You know, going back to the framing of the rising power, do they framing of the rising power, do they framing of the rising power, do they still need to do that to keep people still need to do that to keep people still need to do that to keep people happy at home? Or is China going to be happy at home? Or is China going to be happy at home? Or is China going to be able to maintain happiness at home in a able to maintain happiness at home in a able to maintain happiness at home in a multi-olar world where China and perhaps multi-olar world where China and perhaps multi-olar world where China and perhaps the US and perhaps some other countries the US and perhaps some other countries the US and perhaps some other countries share influence around the world. This share influence around the world. This share influence around the world. This is one you raised and we talked about is one you raised and we talked about is one you raised and we talked about the last time which is interesting. I the last time which is interesting. I the last time which is interesting. I think we agreed. So let me uh just again think we agreed. So let me uh just again think we agreed. So let me uh just again for people that don't remember start. So for people that don't remember start. So for people that don't remember start. So first China is a meteoric rising power. first China is a meteoric rising power. first China is a meteoric rising power. Never has a country risen so far so fast Never has a country risen so far so fast Never has a country risen so far so fast on so many different dimensions. If you on so many different dimensions. If you on so many different dimensions. If you take a snapshot of the year 2000 and the take a snapshot of the year 2000 and the take a snapshot of the year 2000 and the year 2025 and compare China on any year 2025 and compare China on any year 2025 and compare China on any metric of power, it's just dumbfounding metric of power, it's just dumbfounding metric of power, it's just dumbfounding dumbfounding. So, a country uh that uh I dumbfounding. So, a country uh that uh I dumbfounding. So, a country uh that uh I have compared it to kind of like a a have compared it to kind of like a a have compared it to kind of like a a Formula 1 racing, a country that we Formula 1 racing, a country that we Formula 1 racing, a country that we couldn't find in our rearview mirror in couldn't find in our rearview mirror in couldn't find in our rearview mirror in 2020 or sorry, 2000 because it was so 2020 or sorry, 2000 because it was so 2020 or sorry, 2000 because it was so far behind. We have trouble finding in far behind. We have trouble finding in far behind. We have trouble finding in our rearview mirror today because it's our rearview mirror today because it's our rearview mirror today because it's beside us or in many races even slightly beside us or in many races even slightly beside us or in many races even slightly ahead of us. So, that's GDP. It was less ahead of us. So, that's GDP. It was less ahead of us. So, that's GDP. It was less than 5% of global than 5% of global than 5% of global or it was less than a quarter the US in or it was less than a quarter the US in or it was less than a quarter the US in 2000. Today by pursing power parity it's 2000. Today by pursing power parity it's 2000. Today by pursing power parity it's 25% larger. In 2000 trading it was uh 5% 25% larger. In 2000 trading it was uh 5% 25% larger. In 2000 trading it was uh 5% of global today and we were 15. Today of global today and we were 15. Today of global today and we were 15. Today it's 35 and we're 25. If you do advanced it's 35 and we're 25. If you do advanced it's 35 and we're 25. If you do advanced tech in any any arena, take 5G, but my tech in any any arena, take 5G, but my tech in any any arena, take 5G, but my goodness, take EVs. Oh my goodness, take goodness, take EVs. Oh my goodness, take goodness, take EVs. Oh my goodness, take whatever. Okay, so rapidly rising power. whatever. Okay, so rapidly rising power. whatever. Okay, so rapidly rising power. That's essential. That's the That's essential. That's the That's essential. That's the infrastructure for their grand infrastructure for their grand infrastructure for their grand narrative, which is the inexraable rise narrative, which is the inexraable rise narrative, which is the inexraable rise of China to its natural position in the of China to its natural position in the of China to its natural position in the international order, which they think is international order, which they think is international order, which they think is at the top of the pyramid. So they are at the top of the pyramid. So they are at the top of the pyramid. So they are absolutely determined to be number one absolutely determined to be number one absolutely determined to be number one in their own arena to begin with and in their own arena to begin with and in their own arena to begin with and then after that you know maybe more and then after that you know maybe more and then after that you know maybe more and they also they have a second the second they also they have a second the second they also they have a second the second proposition proposition proposition there's the inexraable decline of the US there's the inexraable decline of the US there's the inexraable decline of the US and they look at the various parts of and they look at the various parts of and they look at the various parts of the US and the components including the US and the components including the US and the components including getting involved in unnecessary wars as getting involved in unnecessary wars as getting involved in unnecessary wars as part of that story that part of their part of that story that part of their part of that story that part of their narrative and That dynamic, the shifting narrative and That dynamic, the shifting narrative and That dynamic, the shifting of the seessaw, is what gives you this of the seessaw, is what gives you this of the seessaw, is what gives you this thusidity and dynamic that we discussed thusidity and dynamic that we discussed thusidity and dynamic that we discussed before, which most often, hard as it is before, which most often, hard as it is before, which most often, hard as it is to believe, but most often to believe, but most often to believe, but most often discombobulates people so much that then discombobulates people so much that then discombobulates people so much that then some incident or accident like something some incident or accident like something some incident or accident like something that happens over Taiwan leads to a that happens over Taiwan leads to a that happens over Taiwan leads to a vicious circle of actions and reactions vicious circle of actions and reactions vicious circle of actions and reactions that drags them into a war after which that drags them into a war after which that drags them into a war after which they think, "My god, how did this ever they think, "My god, how did this ever they think, "My god, how did this ever happen?" So that's a long story but I happen?" So that's a long story but I happen?" So that's a long story but I would say the economic piece is would say the economic piece is would say the economic piece is essential for this and that economic essential for this and that economic essential for this and that economic piece means they want to be the piece means they want to be the piece means they want to be the manufacturing work workshop for the manufacturing work workshop for the manufacturing work workshop for the world and the foundry for the world and world and the foundry for the world and world and the foundry for the world and the supplier for the world. There are the supplier for the world. There are the supplier for the world. There are two major challenges they have uh I two major challenges they have uh I two major challenges they have uh I believe one of them is population believe one of them is population believe one of them is population decline other is unemployment and the AI decline other is unemployment and the AI decline other is unemployment and the AI that we've seen and what's hitting first that we've seen and what's hitting first that we've seen and what's hitting first >> could hit them in a major way >> could hit them in a major way >> could hit them in a major way manufacturing is moving to robotics at manufacturing is moving to robotics at manufacturing is moving to robotics at an alarming place then you have things an alarming place then you have things an alarming place then you have things like self-driving which is a major job like self-driving which is a major job like self-driving which is a major job there uh for for many people so on those there uh for for many people so on those there uh for for many people so on those two axis when you see the youth two axis when you see the youth two axis when you see the youth unemployment which I think is 15 or 20% unemployment which I think is 15 or 20% unemployment which I think is 15 or 20% in um locations in China and population in um locations in China and population in um locations in China and population decline. Is that she's two biggest decline. Is that she's two biggest decline. Is that she's two biggest challenges to deal with and and how does challenges to deal with and and how does challenges to deal with and and how does that affect this, you know, bipo this uh that affect this, you know, bipo this uh that affect this, you know, bipo this uh uh relationship? uh relationship? uh relationship? >> Good question. And this is more in your >> Good question. And this is more in your >> Good question. And this is more in your space than mine cuz I've tried to space than mine cuz I've tried to space than mine cuz I've tried to follow. But Elon says there's going to follow. But Elon says there's going to follow. But Elon says there's going to be more robots than people. Okay. be more robots than people. Okay. be more robots than people. Okay. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> And if you ask him where where are the >> And if you ask him where where are the >> And if you ask him where where are the most advanced robots in the world, the most advanced robots in the world, the most advanced robots in the world, the ones that are kicking his ass or he ones that are kicking his ass or he ones that are kicking his ass or he worries about they're China. So they got worries about they're China. So they got worries about they're China. So they got a huge number of robot companies. When I a huge number of robot companies. When I a huge number of robot companies. When I was there in uh last when was I last was there in uh last when was I last was there in uh last when was I last there in uh there in uh there in uh um January I went to see a factory um January I went to see a factory um January I went to see a factory Xiaomi Xiaomi the phone company. Xiaomi Xiaomi Xiaomi the phone company. Xiaomi Xiaomi Xiaomi the phone company. Xiaomi 3 years ago decided they would make cars 3 years ago decided they would make cars 3 years ago decided they would make cars after watching Apple spend $10 million after watching Apple spend $10 million after watching Apple spend $10 million not able to make a car. within three not able to make a car. within three not able to make a car. within three years. That factory is producing cars years. That factory is producing cars years. That factory is producing cars right now and they have a huge demand right now and they have a huge demand right now and they have a huge demand for these cars. They have three lines. for these cars. They have three lines. for these cars. They have three lines. One of the lines is all robots. Okay? One of the lines is all robots. Okay? One of the lines is all robots. Okay? So, they're putting a lot of robots to So, they're putting a lot of robots to So, they're putting a lot of robots to work. More than half of the working the work. More than half of the working the work. More than half of the working the factory worker robots in the world are factory worker robots in the world are factory worker robots in the world are in China. Uh and so some of the people in China. Uh and so some of the people in China. Uh and so some of the people are saying well you know demographics is are saying well you know demographics is are saying well you know demographics is going to be not so big a problem because going to be not so big a problem because going to be not so big a problem because if demographics is only a problem if demographics is only a problem if demographics is only a problem because of workers you know we're going because of workers you know we're going because of workers you know we're going to have work in fact the American to have work in fact the American to have work in fact the American workers are more worried about you know workers are more worried about you know workers are more worried about you know taking our jobs. So that's a now the the taking our jobs. So that's a now the the taking our jobs. So that's a now the the issue of for the uh impact on education issue of for the uh impact on education issue of for the uh impact on education they have uh a number of people that they have uh a number of people that they have uh a number of people that have been educated in arenas that are have been educated in arenas that are have been educated in arenas that are now no longer you know high demand jobs now no longer you know high demand jobs now no longer you know high demand jobs and unfortunately we have a lot of that and unfortunately we have a lot of that and unfortunately we have a lot of that too I mean if you look at people college too I mean if you look at people college too I mean if you look at people college graduates now that graduated in I don't graduates now that graduated in I don't graduates now that graduated in I don't know DEI subjects they're having trouble know DEI subjects they're having trouble know DEI subjects they're having trouble uh getting jobs so I would say uh it's a uh getting jobs so I would say uh it's a uh getting jobs so I would say uh it's a little they're more similar ilarities little they're more similar ilarities little they're more similar ilarities there than differences. The other thing there than differences. The other thing there than differences. The other thing is Chinese have demonstrated a great is Chinese have demonstrated a great is Chinese have demonstrated a great much greater capacity or readiness to much greater capacity or readiness to much greater capacity or readiness to adopt and adapt to new technologies. adopt and adapt to new technologies. adopt and adapt to new technologies. So if you look at uh I'm sure you have So if you look at uh I'm sure you have So if you look at uh I'm sure you have or you all have probably had him on or you all have probably had him on or you all have probably had him on Jinsen Wong uh but when he went to China Jinsen Wong uh but when he went to China Jinsen Wong uh but when he went to China he said gee I think I came to the future he said gee I think I came to the future he said gee I think I came to the future you know that uh uh the people don't you you know that uh uh the people don't you you know that uh uh the people don't you know they don't use not only do they not know they don't use not only do they not know they don't use not only do they not use uh uh coins they don't use bills use uh uh coins they don't use bills use uh uh coins they don't use bills they don't use checks they don't use they don't use checks they don't use they don't use checks they don't use credit cards they just have their face credit cards they just have their face credit cards they just have their face and then go through the story and then go through the story and then go through the story >> let's shift round to >> let's shift round to >> let's shift round to what some have described as the longer what some have described as the longer what some have described as the longer term playing field which is near the term playing field which is near the term playing field which is near the Arctic. Some have argued that much of Arctic. Some have argued that much of Arctic. Some have argued that much of the recent push for Greenland by the the recent push for Greenland by the the recent push for Greenland by the United States is driven by the military United States is driven by the military United States is driven by the military threat coming over the Arctic from threat coming over the Arctic from threat coming over the Arctic from Russia and from China. I'm wondering if Russia and from China. I'm wondering if Russia and from China. I'm wondering if you could just help frame for our you could just help frame for our you could just help frame for our audience why is Greenland so strategic audience why is Greenland so strategic audience why is Greenland so strategic to the United States and is this to the United States and is this to the United States and is this effectively a proxy for defense against effectively a proxy for defense against effectively a proxy for defense against China and Russia and why now? China and Russia and why now? China and Russia and why now? >> Another big question. So let me start >> Another big question. So let me start >> Another big question. So let me start with the bottom line. I think the with the bottom line. I think the with the bottom line. I think the at least from the judgments of the at least from the judgments of the at least from the judgments of the people whom I people whom I people whom I respect the most, we can we the US can respect the most, we can we the US can respect the most, we can we the US can get everything we want from Greenland get everything we want from Greenland get everything we want from Greenland without invading it or owning it. So without invading it or owning it. So without invading it or owning it. So Greenland has been an important base for Greenland has been an important base for Greenland has been an important base for missile defenses, a dual duel base. We missile defenses, a dual duel base. We missile defenses, a dual duel base. We had two other bases that we closed, had two other bases that we closed, had two other bases that we closed, but we can open as many other bases as but we can open as many other bases as but we can open as many other bases as we want, and they're very amidable to we want, and they're very amidable to we want, and they're very amidable to that. I think President Trump's right to that. I think President Trump's right to that. I think President Trump's right to say, well, yeah, but I don't want a say, well, yeah, but I don't want a say, well, yeah, but I don't want a short-term lease on these bases. I would short-term lease on these bases. I would short-term lease on these bases. I would say a 99-year lease sounds like a pretty say a 99-year lease sounds like a pretty say a 99-year lease sounds like a pretty good lease to me for, you know, in 99 good lease to me for, you know, in 99 good lease to me for, you know, in 99 years, God knows what's going to be years, God knows what's going to be years, God knows what's going to be happening. But to the extent that happening. But to the extent that happening. But to the extent that missile defense and uh is part of it, missile defense and uh is part of it, missile defense and uh is part of it, which it is, I would say that's a part which it is, I would say that's a part which it is, I would say that's a part for the naval component. Yes. I think for the naval component. Yes. I think for the naval component. Yes. I think the as uh the Arctic the as uh the Arctic the as uh the Arctic uh melts, you already now have an uh melts, you already now have an uh melts, you already now have an opening of sea lanes and opening of sea lanes and opening of sea lanes and the way that the uh the territorial the way that the uh the territorial the way that the uh the territorial ownership uh the abuters have their ownership uh the abuters have their ownership uh the abuters have their claim to the local and the regional and claim to the local and the regional and claim to the local and the regional and there the the main claims are Russian there the the main claims are Russian there the the main claims are Russian and Canadian. We have a chunk from and Canadian. We have a chunk from and Canadian. We have a chunk from Alaska and then Greenland would be a Alaska and then Greenland would be a Alaska and then Greenland would be a piece of that. So, I would say that's piece of that. So, I would say that's piece of that. So, I would say that's relevant. But those sea lanes, uh, at relevant. But those sea lanes, uh, at relevant. But those sea lanes, uh, at least for the Navy people I talked to least for the Navy people I talked to least for the Navy people I talked to are they're not as important as they are they're not as important as they are they're not as important as they used to be because now there's so many used to be because now there's so many used to be because now there's so many different ways to get it. You're not different ways to get it. You're not different ways to get it. You're not going to uh try to blockade a a uh, you going to uh try to blockade a a uh, you going to uh try to blockade a a uh, you know, a a waterway uh, with ships. know, a a waterway uh, with ships. know, a a waterway uh, with ships. You're going to do it with smart mines You're going to do it with smart mines You're going to do it with smart mines or you're going to do it simply by or you're going to do it simply by or you're going to do it simply by attacking the ships on the on the array. attacking the ships on the on the array. attacking the ships on the on the array. And if it's underwater, uh underwater is And if it's underwater, uh underwater is And if it's underwater, uh underwater is pretty much all the same. I mean, it's pretty much all the same. I mean, it's pretty much all the same. I mean, it's good to have narrow places and shallow good to have narrow places and shallow good to have narrow places and shallow places for looking for things, but uh so places for looking for things, but uh so places for looking for things, but uh so I I I would say I think Trump's uh uh I I I would say I think Trump's uh uh I I I would say I think Trump's uh uh Greenland venture was more like for fun. Greenland venture was more like for fun. Greenland venture was more like for fun. plus uh I mean I think one of the people plus uh I mean I think one of the people plus uh I mean I think one of the people that knows him well says remember he's that knows him well says remember he's that knows him well says remember he's first off a reality TV producer and star first off a reality TV producer and star first off a reality TV producer and star so he just has fun starting with a a so he just has fun starting with a a so he just has fun starting with a a drama getting people very excited uh drama getting people very excited uh drama getting people very excited uh letting the tension rise and then letting the tension rise and then letting the tension rise and then finding a resolution and I think we're finding a resolution and I think we're finding a resolution and I think we're on track to a resolution there on track to a resolution there on track to a resolution there >> let me push back just on that point what >> let me push back just on that point what >> let me push back just on that point what I have heard is that there's rising I have heard is that there's rising I have heard is that there's rising socialism in Western Europe. Growing socialism in Western Europe. Growing socialism in Western Europe. Growing concern that over time as socialism concern that over time as socialism concern that over time as socialism becomes more of the mainstay in the becomes more of the mainstay in the becomes more of the mainstay in the governing models in Western European governing models in Western European governing models in Western European nations, those nations fall more under nations, those nations fall more under nations, those nations fall more under the influence of China. And as a result, the influence of China. And as a result, the influence of China. And as a result, if you think about the influence that if you think about the influence that if you think about the influence that China could then have on on Denmark and China could then have on on Denmark and China could then have on on Denmark and on Danish foreign policy, if the United on Danish foreign policy, if the United on Danish foreign policy, if the United States doesn't secure what it needs for States doesn't secure what it needs for States doesn't secure what it needs for the long term, and it may not know what the long term, and it may not know what the long term, and it may not know what it needs for the long term physically in it needs for the long term physically in it needs for the long term physically in Greenland today, we only know what we Greenland today, we only know what we Greenland today, we only know what we need today. That we're at risk of China need today. That we're at risk of China need today. That we're at risk of China having outsized influence over Greenland having outsized influence over Greenland having outsized influence over Greenland tomorrow. And that that's the real tomorrow. And that that's the real tomorrow. And that that's the real reason for the big push today for reason for the big push today for reason for the big push today for Greenland. How does that sit with you Greenland. How does that sit with you Greenland. How does that sit with you and does that align kind of with with and does that align kind of with with and does that align kind of with with what some folks are are concerned about? what some folks are are concerned about? what some folks are are concerned about? >> I have to think about it. I hadn't heard >> I have to think about it. I hadn't heard >> I have to think about it. I hadn't heard that argument just that way. Again, what that argument just that way. Again, what that argument just that way. Again, what is socialism? It's complicated. Uh is socialism? It's complicated. Uh is socialism? It's complicated. Uh certainly the Chinese well yes they're certainly the Chinese well yes they're certainly the Chinese well yes they're socialists in some respect. I would say socialists in some respect. I would say socialists in some respect. I would say capitalism is I mean they're autocratic capitalism is I mean they're autocratic capitalism is I mean they're autocratic and they're partyled but then their and they're partyled but then their and they're partyled but then their economy is essentially uh fiercely uh economy is essentially uh fiercely uh economy is essentially uh fiercely uh capitalist. I mean, you have a uh the uh capitalist. I mean, you have a uh the uh capitalist. I mean, you have a uh the uh on on on one of the one of my friends glad one of the one of my friends glad one of the one of my friends glad gladatorial conflict that makes the gladatorial conflict that makes the gladatorial conflict that makes the competition in Silicon Valley look look competition in Silicon Valley look look competition in Silicon Valley look look tame as the you know as the parties tame as the you know as the parties tame as the you know as the parties fight each other. Uh so fight each other. Uh so fight each other. Uh so >> because you can't make money because the >> because you can't make money because the >> because you can't make money because the taxes are so high. That's another taxes are so high. That's another taxes are so high. That's another >> and in their case you know they they >> and in their case you know they they >> and in their case you know they they they they they decide they're going into an arena. decide they're going into an arena. decide they're going into an arena. let's say for example EVs and so they let's say for example EVs and so they let's say for example EVs and so they give uh uh advantages to companies give uh uh advantages to companies give uh uh advantages to companies getting started even subsidies and then getting started even subsidies and then getting started even subsidies and then they let them fight it out and lo and they let them fight it out and lo and they let them fight it out and lo and behold at the end they'll be you know 10 behold at the end they'll be you know 10 behold at the end they'll be you know 10 or five but it's fiercely competitive in or five but it's fiercely competitive in or five but it's fiercely competitive in the meantime and a lot of guys will get the meantime and a lot of guys will get the meantime and a lot of guys will get you know trampled along the way and then you know trampled along the way and then you know trampled along the way and then those guys are excess capacity and those guys are excess capacity and those guys are excess capacity and they'll sell things off you know without they'll sell things off you know without they'll sell things off you know without any concern about the capex they're just any concern about the capex they're just any concern about the capex they're just as long as they can stay ahead of the as long as they can stay ahead of the as long as they can stay ahead of the game, you know, selling items or even game, you know, selling items or even game, you know, selling items or even selling out their inventory. So, I think selling out their inventory. So, I think selling out their inventory. So, I think the uh I think watching the way watching the uh I think watching the way watching the uh I think watching the way watching the evolution of other countries the evolution of other countries the evolution of other countries including Europe, I think uh and their including Europe, I think uh and their including Europe, I think uh and their relations with China as well as with us relations with China as well as with us relations with China as well as with us in this game is a very relevant point. in this game is a very relevant point. in this game is a very relevant point. And I would say the uh one of the things And I would say the uh one of the things And I would say the uh one of the things that the Trump administration has had that the Trump administration has had that the Trump administration has had trouble with is recognizing that if trouble with is recognizing that if trouble with is recognizing that if we're in a fierce rivalry with China, we're in a fierce rivalry with China, we're in a fierce rivalry with China, they got four times as many people. We they got four times as many people. We they got four times as many people. We need to have some allies with heft on need to have some allies with heft on need to have some allies with heft on our side of the seesaw to keep it from our side of the seesaw to keep it from our side of the seesaw to keep it from going the wrong direction. And so, yes, going the wrong direction. And so, yes, going the wrong direction. And so, yes, kind of sometimes you need to give your kind of sometimes you need to give your kind of sometimes you need to give your ally a cold bath in order to get them to ally a cold bath in order to get them to ally a cold bath in order to get them to shape up, but uh I think uh uh getting shape up, but uh I think uh uh getting shape up, but uh I think uh uh getting Canadians to think of us as an enemy is Canadians to think of us as an enemy is Canadians to think of us as an enemy is a great wild idea. uh uh I mean any a great wild idea. uh uh I mean any a great wild idea. uh uh I mean any treatment that comes to that conclusion treatment that comes to that conclusion treatment that comes to that conclusion and if you take Carney whom I know from and if you take Carney whom I know from and if you take Carney whom I know from when he's a Harvard college kid he's when he's a Harvard college kid he's when he's a Harvard college kid he's he's as American as anybody or he was he's as American as anybody or he was he's as American as anybody or he was but the idea if you go and threaten a but the idea if you go and threaten a but the idea if you go and threaten a politician's survival that's a pretty politician's survival that's a pretty politician's survival that's a pretty good way to piss him off and if you good way to piss him off and if you good way to piss him off and if you threaten to take territory from people threaten to take territory from people threaten to take territory from people that's a pretty good way to make them that's a pretty good way to make them that's a pretty good way to make them feel hostile. feel hostile. feel hostile. Uh, so this is an unusual treatment if Uh, so this is an unusual treatment if Uh, so this is an unusual treatment if we're trying to, you know, get guys with we're trying to, you know, get guys with we're trying to, you know, get guys with heft on our side of the seesaw. heft on our side of the seesaw. heft on our side of the seesaw. >> At the World Economic Forum, I wasn't >> At the World Economic Forum, I wasn't >> At the World Economic Forum, I wasn't sure if it was Davos or another one of sure if it was Davos or another one of sure if it was Davos or another one of their forums. Were you at the Davos one their forums. Were you at the Davos one their forums. Were you at the Davos one this year? this year? this year? >> Sure. >> Sure. >> Sure. >> So, as a total aside, just bringing >> So, as a total aside, just bringing >> So, as a total aside, just bringing President Trump's impact, it was two and President Trump's impact, it was two and President Trump's impact, it was two and a half days of people wondering what he a half days of people wondering what he a half days of people wondering what he would say when he got there. would say when he got there. would say when he got there. >> The town shut down as people watched his >> The town shut down as people watched his >> The town shut down as people watched his 2hour standup, you know, delivery. and 2hour standup, you know, delivery. and 2hour standup, you know, delivery. and then another two days of people sort of then another two days of people sort of then another two days of people sort of trying to understand and figure out what trying to understand and figure out what trying to understand and figure out what happened there. So there's something happened there. So there's something happened there. So there's something >> it was a reality TV show for sure. Yeah. >> it was a reality TV show for sure. Yeah. >> it was a reality TV show for sure. Yeah. So he took over this fellow uh uh Mooch So he took over this fellow uh uh Mooch So he took over this fellow uh uh Mooch who was his communication guy for a week who was his communication guy for a week who was his communication guy for a week or 10 days till he got fired in the or 10 days till he got fired in the or 10 days till he got fired in the first administration said on the first first administration said on the first first administration said on the first night I was at an event he said remember night I was at an event he said remember night I was at an event he said remember this is going to be a re reality TV this is going to be a re reality TV this is going to be a re reality TV show. was going to start with the claim show. was going to start with the claim show. was going to start with the claim that we're going to invade Greenland, that we're going to invade Greenland, that we're going to invade Greenland, which my god, you're invading in a lie. which my god, you're invading in a lie. which my god, you're invading in a lie. That's a pretty big deal. He said, then That's a pretty big deal. He said, then That's a pretty big deal. He said, then you're going to watch the drama build. you're going to watch the drama build. you're going to watch the drama build. When Trump had a chance to speak, he's When Trump had a chance to speak, he's When Trump had a chance to speak, he's speaking this long ring back and forth speaking this long ring back and forth speaking this long ring back and forth back. But he then had a just a paragraph back. But he then had a just a paragraph back. But he then had a just a paragraph in which he said he basically took the in which he said he basically took the in which he said he basically took the gun off the table. But before that, he gun off the table. But before that, he gun off the table. But before that, he was doing a mafioso act. Even some some was doing a mafioso act. Even some some was doing a mafioso act. Even some some mafioso lines about, you know, you can mafioso lines about, you know, you can mafioso lines about, you know, you can either have it the easy way or the hard either have it the easy way or the hard either have it the easy way or the hard way. One of the that's a godfather line. way. One of the that's a godfather line. way. One of the that's a godfather line. And so people were saying, "Yes, you And so people were saying, "Yes, you And so people were saying, "Yes, you know, this what what has been loose on know, this what what has been loose on know, this what what has been loose on us." So now you have all this drama. But us." So now you have all this drama. But us." So now you have all this drama. But then he says, "I've decided we're not then he says, "I've decided we're not then he says, "I've decided we're not going to invade Greenland." You know, he going to invade Greenland." You know, he going to invade Greenland." You know, he just passes that off. So now the just passes that off. So now the just passes that off. So now the temperature goes down. And now the third temperature goes down. And now the third temperature goes down. And now the third day he does some other day he does some other day he does some other institute or board of peace and he says institute or board of peace and he says institute or board of peace and he says we now have a framework of an agreement. we now have a framework of an agreement. we now have a framework of an agreement. So uh I think I think half of the time So uh I think I think half of the time So uh I think I think half of the time he's having fun. he's having fun. he's having fun. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> You know it's sort of it does get >> You know it's sort of it does get >> You know it's sort of it does get people's attention. people's attention. people's attention. >> Sure it does. uh you um on a substantive >> Sure it does. uh you um on a substantive >> Sure it does. uh you um on a substantive basis shared a framework 8089 basis shared a framework 8089 basis shared a framework 8089 and I think it you know I've spent a and I think it you know I've spent a and I think it you know I've spent a bunch of time listening to the talk you bunch of time listening to the talk you bunch of time listening to the talk you gave and and some people's um reaction gave and and some people's um reaction gave and and some people's um reaction to it maybe you could share it with the to it maybe you could share it with the to it maybe you could share it with the audience and why it's important. Oh, audience and why it's important. Oh, audience and why it's important. Oh, thank you. I'm glad you So, I think this thank you. I'm glad you So, I think this thank you. I'm glad you So, I think this is a big idea. So, these are three is a big idea. So, these are three is a big idea. So, these are three numbers, each of which is the answer to numbers, each of which is the answer to numbers, each of which is the answer to a question. And if you can remember the a question. And if you can remember the a question. And if you can remember the three numbers and you can identify the three numbers and you can identify the three numbers and you can identify the question to which each one is the question to which each one is the question to which each one is the answer, you have the big picture about answer, you have the big picture about answer, you have the big picture about international security in the lifetime international security in the lifetime international security in the lifetime of yourself and even your parents. That of yourself and even your parents. That of yourself and even your parents. That is virtually everybody who's alive is virtually everybody who's alive is virtually everybody who's alive today. So the first sity is the answer today. So the first sity is the answer today. So the first sity is the answer to what? to what? to what? >> How long it's been since a world war? >> How long it's been since a world war? >> How long it's been since a world war? >> How many years since a great power war? >> How many years since a great power war? >> How many years since a great power war? Since a world war. Since a world war. Since a world war. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Now, whoa, wait a minute. 80 years. This >> Now, whoa, wait a minute. 80 years. This >> Now, whoa, wait a minute. 80 years. This is the longest piece in recorded history is the longest piece in recorded history is the longest piece in recorded history since Rome. since Rome. since Rome. This is not natural. This is not natural. This is not natural. This is very abnormal. This is very abnormal. This is very abnormal. This is a didn't happen by accident. This is a didn't happen by accident. This is a didn't happen by accident. This was what the people who founded the This was what the people who founded the This was what the people who founded the international order after World War II international order after World War II international order after World War II were trying to build a new world order were trying to build a new world order were trying to build a new world order because they had just lived through a because they had just lived through a because they had just lived through a terrible World War II terrible World War II terrible World War II simply one generation before they simply one generation before they simply one generation before they remembered, hey, there was World War I. remembered, hey, there was World War I. remembered, hey, there was World War I. >> So if we just keep doing this, we should >> So if we just keep doing this, we should >> So if we just keep doing this, we should expect World War II. expect World War II. expect World War II. >> It should have already happened. If it >> It should have already happened. If it >> It should have already happened. If it could have happened at the human missile could have happened at the human missile could have happened at the human missile crisis. So no great power war. crisis. So no great power war. crisis. So no great power war. Fantastic. and but a a fragile a work in Fantastic. and but a a fragile a work in Fantastic. and but a a fragile a work in progress all the time eroding inevitably progress all the time eroding inevitably progress all the time eroding inevitably for many many different reasons right for many many different reasons right for many many different reasons right second 80 how many years second 80 how many years second 80 how many years >> since we've had a nuclear uh bomb go off >> since we've had a nuclear uh bomb go off >> since we've had a nuclear uh bomb go off >> fantastic so think about that if you had >> fantastic so think about that if you had >> fantastic so think about that if you had gone if there had been prediction gone if there had been prediction gone if there had been prediction markets and you had gone in 1945 or 50 markets and you had gone in 1945 or 50 markets and you had gone in 1945 or 50 you would have got 10,000 to1 odds you would have got 10,000 to1 odds you would have got 10,000 to1 odds against that it's impossible the weapon against that it's impossible the weapon against that it's impossible the weapon that ended World War II two and you're that ended World War II two and you're that ended World War II two and you're not ever going to see any use of those not ever going to see any use of those not ever going to see any use of those weapons in war. Whoa. And then nine, weapons in war. Whoa. And then nine, weapons in war. Whoa. And then nine, >> the number of countries, nation states >> the number of countries, nation states >> the number of countries, nation states that have nuclear that have nuclear that have nuclear bombs today. bombs today. bombs today. >> Fantastic, Jack. Right. Now, how in the >> Fantastic, Jack. Right. Now, how in the >> Fantastic, Jack. Right. Now, how in the world could you have only nine countries world could you have only nine countries world could you have only nine countries having nuclear weapons? Nuclear weapons having nuclear weapons? Nuclear weapons having nuclear weapons? Nuclear weapons being your kind of ultimate security being your kind of ultimate security being your kind of ultimate security blanket. Again, John Kennedy uh in 1963 blanket. Again, John Kennedy uh in 1963 blanket. Again, John Kennedy uh in 1963 said by the 70s there'll be 25 or 30 said by the 70s there'll be 25 or 30 said by the 70s there'll be 25 or 30 nuclear weapons states cuz he thought nuclear weapons states cuz he thought nuclear weapons states cuz he thought that as states acquired the capability that as states acquired the capability that as states acquired the capability to build nuclear weapons they would do to build nuclear weapons they would do to build nuclear weapons they would do so. Today 90 95 states could have so. Today 90 95 states could have so. Today 90 95 states could have nuclear weapons in a year or two if they nuclear weapons in a year or two if they nuclear weapons in a year or two if they decided to build them. Actually into the decided to build them. Actually into the decided to build them. Actually into the 70s Sweden had a serious nuclear 70s Sweden had a serious nuclear 70s Sweden had a serious nuclear program. South Korea had a nuclear program. South Korea had a nuclear program. South Korea had a nuclear program. Taiwan had a nuclear program. program. Taiwan had a nuclear program. program. Taiwan had a nuclear program. US closed those down, created the US closed those down, created the US closed those down, created the so-called non-prololiferation regime so-called non-prololiferation regime so-called non-prololiferation regime that's accounted for this nine. But I that's accounted for this nine. But I that's accounted for this nine. But I would say again fragile, eroding, not would say again fragile, eroding, not would say again fragile, eroding, not likely to be sustained. So when I try to likely to be sustained. So when I try to likely to be sustained. So when I try to do my giving thanks for uh you know do my giving thanks for uh you know do my giving thanks for uh you know things that I should be thankful for, things that I should be thankful for, things that I should be thankful for, thankful for 80 years without a great thankful for 80 years without a great thankful for 80 years without a great power war. If there were a great power power war. If there were a great power power war. If there were a great power war, you and I, we wouldn't be here and war, you and I, we wouldn't be here and war, you and I, we wouldn't be here and we wouldn't be having this conversation we wouldn't be having this conversation we wouldn't be having this conversation and all the other issues we have to deal and all the other issues we have to deal and all the other issues we have to deal with. So I would say the 80 the 80 and 9 with. So I would say the 80 the 80 and 9 with. So I would say the 80 the 80 and 9 we should not take for granted. We we should not take for granted. We we should not take for granted. We should give thanks for the work that was should give thanks for the work that was should give thanks for the work that was done to to build them and then we should done to to build them and then we should done to to build them and then we should notice what's going to be required to notice what's going to be required to notice what's going to be required to sustain this. sustain this. sustain this. >> And we almost had a 10th nuclear power >> And we almost had a 10th nuclear power >> And we almost had a 10th nuclear power in Iran. in Iran. in Iran. >> We did. >> We did. >> We did. >> And we had the latest two if I'm correct >> And we had the latest two if I'm correct >> And we had the latest two if I'm correct here. You'll correct me because you're here. You'll correct me because you're here. You'll correct me because you're the expert. Pakistan and North Korea and the expert. Pakistan and North Korea and the expert. Pakistan and North Korea and we had that one doctor Khan I believe we had that one doctor Khan I believe we had that one doctor Khan I believe his name was from Pakistan who was his name was from Pakistan who was his name was from Pakistan who was trying to spread and sell these. So trying to spread and sell these. So trying to spread and sell these. So >> absolutely >> absolutely >> absolutely >> did we make a critical error we being >> did we make a critical error we being >> did we make a critical error we being the west even the east humanity the the west even the east humanity the the west even the east humanity the leadership of letting Pakistan and North leadership of letting Pakistan and North leadership of letting Pakistan and North Korea into this club? Korea into this club? Korea into this club? >> Well I mean not not into the club but >> Well I mean not not into the club but >> Well I mean not not into the club but allowing them to get nuclear weapons allowing them to get nuclear weapons allowing them to get nuclear weapons which is right. The Israelis have had a which is right. The Israelis have had a which is right. The Israelis have had a different idea and this goes back uh uh different idea and this goes back uh uh different idea and this goes back uh uh uh to the original attack on Iraq uh to the original attack on Iraq uh to the original attack on Iraq and Osarok. and Osarok. and Osarok. Uh they I call it affirmative Uh they I call it affirmative Uh they I call it affirmative non-prololiferation. non-prololiferation. non-prololiferation. So they say we're not allowing nuclear So they say we're not allowing nuclear So they say we're not allowing nuclear weapons in our neighborhood. And they've weapons in our neighborhood. And they've weapons in our neighborhood. And they've uh destroyed the nuclear weapon project uh destroyed the nuclear weapon project uh destroyed the nuclear weapon project in Iraq. They destroyed the nuclear in Iraq. They destroyed the nuclear in Iraq. They destroyed the nuclear weapon activity in Syria when the North weapon activity in Syria when the North weapon activity in Syria when the North Koreans were building a plant there half Koreans were building a plant there half Koreans were building a plant there half dozen years ago. And now they've been dozen years ago. And now they've been dozen years ago. And now they've been the leaders in the destruction of the the leaders in the destruction of the the leaders in the destruction of the Iranian nuclear program which we've Iranian nuclear program which we've Iranian nuclear program which we've participated in. I however I'm participated in. I however I'm participated in. I however I'm uncomfortable about the wars even in uncomfortable about the wars even in uncomfortable about the wars even in Iran. I have to cheer for this because I Iran. I have to cheer for this because I Iran. I have to cheer for this because I fear additional nuclear weapon states fear additional nuclear weapon states fear additional nuclear weapon states and I wish that we had managed somehow. and I wish that we had managed somehow. and I wish that we had managed somehow. Let's take the North Korean case. I've Let's take the North Korean case. I've Let's take the North Korean case. I've even said this to Chinese uh officials. even said this to Chinese uh officials. even said this to Chinese uh officials. I said, you know, we and you made a I said, you know, we and you made a I said, you know, we and you made a terrible mistake. Maybe we made a bigger terrible mistake. Maybe we made a bigger terrible mistake. Maybe we made a bigger mistake to let North Korea get nuclear mistake to let North Korea get nuclear mistake to let North Korea get nuclear weapons. But what we should have said to weapons. But what we should have said to weapons. But what we should have said to you is, hey, we have an idea. Nuclear you is, hey, we have an idea. Nuclear you is, hey, we have an idea. Nuclear weapons are either good for North Korea weapons are either good for North Korea weapons are either good for North Korea and South Korea, and South Korea, and South Korea, or they're good for neither of them. or they're good for neither of them. or they're good for neither of them. >> Your choice. >> Your choice. >> Your choice. And uh that would have been hard ball. And uh that would have been hard ball. And uh that would have been hard ball. But I I think uh uh the idea of having But I I think uh uh the idea of having But I I think uh uh the idea of having Kim Jong-un have now more than 100 Kim Jong-un have now more than 100 Kim Jong-un have now more than 100 nuclear warheads and missiles that can nuclear warheads and missiles that can nuclear warheads and missiles that can reach the American homeland is crazy. reach the American homeland is crazy. reach the American homeland is crazy. I mean, here we're talking about Iran I mean, here we're talking about Iran I mean, here we're talking about Iran and what it might be. Excuse me. it and what it might be. Excuse me. it and what it might be. Excuse me. it takes uh 20 minutes longer from Korea to takes uh 20 minutes longer from Korea to takes uh 20 minutes longer from Korea to get to Boston than from Iran or maybe 25 get to Boston than from Iran or maybe 25 get to Boston than from Iran or maybe 25 minutes. So I I think that uh that's a minutes. So I I think that uh that's a minutes. So I I think that uh that's a useful perspective to remind us that we useful perspective to remind us that we useful perspective to remind us that we let this thing happen. It's a ticking let this thing happen. It's a ticking let this thing happen. It's a ticking bomb as far as I'm concerned. If you ask bomb as far as I'm concerned. If you ask bomb as far as I'm concerned. If you ask me what to do about it, I makes me, you me what to do about it, I makes me, you me what to do about it, I makes me, you know, cry because Trump in the first know, cry because Trump in the first know, cry because Trump in the first administration focused on this problem administration focused on this problem administration focused on this problem very very seriously and did everything very very seriously and did everything very very seriously and did everything that he thought he could and I thought that he thought he could and I thought that he thought he could and I thought it was a good a good effort even though it was a good a good effort even though it was a good a good effort even though it was not successful. it was not successful. it was not successful. But the 20 other ways we've tried to But the 20 other ways we've tried to But the 20 other ways we've tried to deal with that problem were equally deal with that problem were equally deal with that problem were equally unsuccessful. unsuccessful. unsuccessful. >> How does China feel about nuclear >> How does China feel about nuclear >> How does China feel about nuclear proliferation and North Korea having proliferation and North Korea having proliferation and North Korea having these bombs? Well, I think they feel a these bombs? Well, I think they feel a these bombs? Well, I think they feel a little ashamed at least uh about what little ashamed at least uh about what little ashamed at least uh about what happened in North Korea and kind of happened in North Korea and kind of happened in North Korea and kind of think, well, that wasn't really our think, well, that wasn't really our think, well, that wasn't really our problem. But now uh when you say, well, problem. But now uh when you say, well, problem. But now uh when you say, well, if this keeps if things on the current if this keeps if things on the current if this keeps if things on the current path, well, maybe South Korea or Japan path, well, maybe South Korea or Japan path, well, maybe South Korea or Japan will have nuclear arsenals in their will have nuclear arsenals in their will have nuclear arsenals in their backyard, they think that's terrible backyard, they think that's terrible backyard, they think that's terrible idea, and we would be not very idea, and we would be not very idea, and we would be not very enthusiastic about a Venezuelan or enthusiastic about a Venezuelan or enthusiastic about a Venezuelan or Canadian nuclear bomb. Yeah. Canadian nuclear bomb. Yeah. Canadian nuclear bomb. Yeah. >> So, Dr. Alison, just to kind of wrap our >> So, Dr. Alison, just to kind of wrap our >> So, Dr. Alison, just to kind of wrap our tour of the world here, come back to the tour of the world here, come back to the tour of the world here, come back to the United States. Since we last spoke, United States. Since we last spoke, United States. Since we last spoke, there have been a number of mayors there have been a number of mayors there have been a number of mayors elected in this country that are elected in this country that are elected in this country that are self-declared socialists or democratic self-declared socialists or democratic self-declared socialists or democratic socialists of America, PSA. And there's socialists of America, PSA. And there's socialists of America, PSA. And there's a rising populist movement in the United a rising populist movement in the United a rising populist movement in the United States that seems to be manifesting in States that seems to be manifesting in States that seems to be manifesting in many cases candidates that look and act many cases candidates that look and act many cases candidates that look and act like true deep socialists and want to like true deep socialists and want to like true deep socialists and want to enact socialist policies. What is the enact socialist policies. What is the enact socialist policies. What is the risk to the United States if this risk to the United States if this risk to the United States if this continues to go the way it's going? And continues to go the way it's going? And continues to go the way it's going? And what is the risk to the United States, what is the risk to the United States, what is the risk to the United States, do you think, in 2028 do you think, in 2028 do you think, in 2028 if we have a Democratcontrolled House if we have a Democratcontrolled House if we have a Democratcontrolled House and Senate and a very populist Democrat and Senate and a very populist Democrat and Senate and a very populist Democrat candidate that looks like a DSA member? candidate that looks like a DSA member? candidate that looks like a DSA member? Where does this take us? Where does this take us? Where does this take us? >> Well, again, good for you all for >> Well, again, good for you all for >> Well, again, good for you all for thinking of uncomfortable thinking of uncomfortable thinking of uncomfortable radical questions, but real. Uh, so radical questions, but real. Uh, so radical questions, but real. Uh, so if you look at the numbers, I I I've if you look at the numbers, I I I've if you look at the numbers, I I I've been looking at them lately. They're been looking at them lately. They're been looking at them lately. They're hard to believe in terms of the split hard to believe in terms of the split hard to believe in terms of the split between wealthy and poor or uh rich and between wealthy and poor or uh rich and between wealthy and poor or uh rich and poor. If you look at the who's benefited poor. If you look at the who's benefited poor. If you look at the who's benefited for the last generation in terms of the for the last generation in terms of the for the last generation in terms of the uh 0.01% the 1% the 10% the 20%. Well, uh 0.01% the 1% the 10% the 20%. Well, uh 0.01% the 1% the 10% the 20%. Well, that's us and all the people that we that's us and all the people that we that's us and all the people that we know virtually. And therefore when we know virtually. And therefore when we know virtually. And therefore when we say the market is you know third year in say the market is you know third year in say the market is you know third year in a a a in a in a bull market and my goodness in a in a bull market and my goodness in a in a bull market and my goodness here it's up 15 or 16% or this 80 or 70% here it's up 15 or 16% or this 80 or 70% here it's up 15 or 16% or this 80 or 70% of people this is not part of their of people this is not part of their of people this is not part of their lives and when I look at the numbers lives and when I look at the numbers lives and when I look at the numbers about both what I think the facts are about both what I think the facts are about both what I think the facts are and then even more people's perception and then even more people's perception and then even more people's perception uh uh it's just not stable in a uh uh it's just not stable in a uh uh it's just not stable in a democracy if everybody gets a vote. democracy if everybody gets a vote. democracy if everybody gets a vote. And if uh uh the top 10 or 20% are And if uh uh the top 10 or 20% are And if uh uh the top 10 or 20% are taking 80% or 70% of the pie, taking 80% or 70% of the pie, taking 80% or 70% of the pie, that's not stable and sustainable, I that's not stable and sustainable, I that's not stable and sustainable, I think. And it's a political invitation think. And it's a political invitation think. And it's a political invitation for a populist and demographic demog, that's not reasonable. Uh, so I think that's not reasonable. Uh, so I think that it's not I mean this is beyond my I that it's not I mean this is beyond my I that it's not I mean this is beyond my I mean I I can hardly deal with the mean I I can hardly deal with the mean I I can hardly deal with the problems I I focus on. This one is one problems I I focus on. This one is one problems I I focus on. This one is one that I look over my shoulder and think that I look over my shoulder and think that I look over my shoulder and think gee wait a minute this first this can't gee wait a minute this first this can't gee wait a minute this first this can't be true but then whenever I've been be true but then whenever I've been be true but then whenever I've been looking into the numbers lately they looking into the numbers lately they looking into the numbers lately they look as bad as they appear and then this look as bad as they appear and then this look as bad as they appear and then this is extremely dangerous and I would say is extremely dangerous and I would say is extremely dangerous and I would say yes. And so I haven't heard people yes. And so I haven't heard people yes. And so I haven't heard people talking about plausible ways talking about plausible ways talking about plausible ways in which uh you know this could be in which uh you know this could be in which uh you know this could be addressed and I but I think it's a it's addressed and I but I think it's a it's addressed and I but I think it's a it's a it's an invitation a it's an invitation a it's an invitation you know for some more radical ideas you know for some more radical ideas you know for some more radical ideas and uh so while I like very much the and uh so while I like very much the and uh so while I like very much the Trump uh accounts for kids to give them Trump uh accounts for kids to give them Trump uh accounts for kids to give them some stake I think that's a that's a some stake I think that's a that's a some stake I think that's a that's a fantastic thing. I I I could probably be fantastic thing. I I I could probably be fantastic thing. I I I could probably be persuaded that persuaded that persuaded that people even at my level of income should people even at my level of income should people even at my level of income should pay another 10% of taxes or whatever for pay another 10% of taxes or whatever for pay another 10% of taxes or whatever for uh for some more adjustment. I think the uh for some more adjustment. I think the uh for some more adjustment. I think the kind of adjustments that are basically kind of adjustments that are basically kind of adjustments that are basically putting people on the dole uh or uh putting people on the dole uh or uh putting people on the dole uh or uh support for nonproductive or support for nonproductive or support for nonproductive or semi-productive activity makes me very semi-productive activity makes me very semi-productive activity makes me very uncomfortable. Uh I mean unless they're uncomfortable. Uh I mean unless they're uncomfortable. Uh I mean unless they're lame or you know ill or or lame or you know ill or or lame or you know ill or or >> referring to UBI proposals uh people >> referring to UBI proposals uh people >> referring to UBI proposals uh people getting a universal basic income that getting a universal basic income that getting a universal basic income that that takes motivation that takes motivation that takes motivation >> makes me less I like incentive. I mean, >> makes me less I like incentive. I mean, >> makes me less I like incentive. I mean, I think the the stuff of America has I think the the stuff of America has I think the the stuff of America has been the opportunity for people to to be been the opportunity for people to to be been the opportunity for people to to be incentivized to invent, create, and incentivized to invent, create, and incentivized to invent, create, and create wealth that's benefits for create wealth that's benefits for create wealth that's benefits for everybody. But if the if the jam is not everybody. But if the if the jam is not everybody. But if the if the jam is not getting spread to 70% of the people, getting spread to 70% of the people, getting spread to 70% of the people, that not a sustainable political that not a sustainable political that not a sustainable political situation. And and I think I mean I situation. And and I think I mean I situation. And and I think I mean I thought in the in the New York campaign thought in the in the New York campaign thought in the in the New York campaign we got to see some preview of a bit of we got to see some preview of a bit of we got to see some preview of a bit of this and in the primaries you're seeing this and in the primaries you're seeing this and in the primaries you're seeing people going into this space. I haven't people going into this space. I haven't people going into this space. I haven't seen anybody with a with a coherent seen anybody with a with a coherent seen anybody with a with a coherent program yet. But I think for serious program yet. But I think for serious program yet. But I think for serious people thinking about what's good for people thinking about what's good for people thinking about what's good for the country that's a it's a good one to the country that's a it's a good one to the country that's a it's a good one to worry about. worry about. worry about. >> Does seem free that there's there's a >> Does seem free that there's there's a >> Does seem free that there's there's a couple proposals here. minimum wage, couple proposals here. minimum wage, couple proposals here. minimum wage, maybe some type of a wealth tax. There maybe some type of a wealth tax. There maybe some type of a wealth tax. There are things that people are talking are things that people are talking are things that people are talking about. We may not all agree with them, about. We may not all agree with them, about. We may not all agree with them, and they may be hard to execute, but one and they may be hard to execute, but one and they may be hard to execute, but one of them is for the people at the top. I of them is for the people at the top. I of them is for the people at the top. I think you would agree, Professor think you would agree, Professor think you would agree, Professor Allison, the people at the top have the Allison, the people at the top have the Allison, the people at the top have the most to lose here, and they should be most to lose here, and they should be most to lose here, and they should be thinking about it. And maybe there's thinking about it. And maybe there's thinking about it. And maybe there's generosity and, you know, maybe giving generosity and, you know, maybe giving generosity and, you know, maybe giving away wealth in a more thoughtful way away wealth in a more thoughtful way away wealth in a more thoughtful way because there's so much wealth in this because there's so much wealth in this because there's so much wealth in this top 1% 10% that they can't possibly top 1% 10% that they can't possibly top 1% 10% that they can't possibly spend. And so this might be something spend. And so this might be something spend. And so this might be something that that group of people should be that that group of people should be that that group of people should be thinking a little bit more about. thinking a little bit more about. thinking a little bit more about. >> In the State of the Union, Trump called >> In the State of the Union, Trump called >> In the State of the Union, Trump called out, you know, Dell and a couple of out, you know, Dell and a couple of out, you know, Dell and a couple of other people for having stepped up and other people for having stepped up and other people for having stepped up and say, "Okay, I'm, you know, I'm all in on say, "Okay, I'm, you know, I'm all in on say, "Okay, I'm, you know, I'm all in on this." I would say there something quite this." I would say there something quite this." I would say there something quite or that certainly it got my attention or that certainly it got my attention or that certainly it got my attention and made me think maybe I should be and made me think maybe I should be and made me think maybe I should be doing something different. Yeah. doing something different. Yeah. doing something different. Yeah. >> Yeah. Right. Well, Professor Allison, >> Yeah. Right. Well, Professor Allison, >> Yeah. Right. Well, Professor Allison, you know, they they say that you can you know, they they say that you can you know, they they say that you can measure a man's knowledge and measure a man's knowledge and measure a man's knowledge and thoughtfulness by his humility. I will thoughtfulness by his humility. I will thoughtfulness by his humility. I will say you have extraordinary depth and say you have extraordinary depth and say you have extraordinary depth and you've thought so deeply about so many you've thought so deeply about so many you've thought so deeply about so many of these issues that this world is of these issues that this world is of these issues that this world is facing right now and yet you act with facing right now and yet you act with facing right now and yet you act with such humility and grace when you speak such humility and grace when you speak such humility and grace when you speak about them. I want to thank you for about them. I want to thank you for about them. I want to thank you for that. I want to thank you for taking the that. I want to thank you for taking the that. I want to thank you for taking the time to be with us today. Really time to be with us today. Really time to be with us today. Really appreciate it and look forward to doing appreciate it and look forward to doing appreciate it and look forward to doing it again in person soon. it again in person soon. it again in person soon. >> Yeah. Thank you so much on behalf of the >> Yeah. Thank you so much on behalf of the >> Yeah. Thank you so much on behalf of the audience and just on a personal basis. audience and just on a personal basis. audience and just on a personal basis. This is such a delight and privilege to This is such a delight and privilege to This is such a delight and privilege to be able to do with this with you every be able to do with this with you every be able to do with this with you every year or two. And man, I hope we can just year or two. And man, I hope we can just year or two. And man, I hope we can just do it every year because it's the do it every year because it's the do it every year because it's the highlight of my year when we get to highlight of my year when we get to highlight of my year when we get to talk. talk. talk. >> Excuse me. It's an honor for me. Thank >> Excuse me. It's an honor for me. Thank >> Excuse me. It's an honor for me. Thank you so much. And thank you for what you so much. And thank you for what you so much. And thank you for what y'all are doing and thanks for thinking y'all are doing and thanks for thinking y'all are doing and thanks for thinking of such hard questions. I'll take me of such hard questions. I'll take me of such hard questions. I'll take me home tonight to think about socialism. home tonight to think about socialism. home tonight to think about socialism. Yes. Yes. Yes. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Okay. Thank you, sir. >> Okay. Thank you, sir. >> Okay. Thank you, sir. >> Thank you.