The World Reacts To Maduro's Capture Is Greenland Next? + HUGE Development in Ukraine Russia & MAHA

Key Takeaway

The world is entering a period of unprecedented geopolitical tension, with the U.S. asserting control over Venezuela's oil, threatening military action over Greenland, and risking a fracture of NATO alliances. Trump's CEO-style governance brings efficiency but also authoritarian tendencies—running a country like a company without checks can lead to overextension and strategic blind spots. The key lesson: In high-stakes situations, understand the difference between effective bullying and sustainable diplomacy. Every aggressive move creates enemies; stack enough of them, and even rational actors will retaliate emotionally, not strategically.

Episode Overview

This episode provides real-time analysis of escalating global tensions under the Trump administration. The hosts examine the U.S. seizure of Venezuelan leadership and oil, threats to take military control of Greenland, rising tensions with China and Russia, and the potential fracturing of NATO alliances. They explore Trump's business-minded governance style—efficient and decisive, but potentially reckless when applied to geopolitics. The discussion covers the Monroe Doctrine, Thucydides's Trap, and game theory as frameworks for understanding these moves. Key themes include the risks of imperial overextension, the difference between running a company and governing a democracy, and the dangers of alienating allies while simultaneously confronting peer competitors like China.

Full Transcript

Transcript of The World Reacts To Maduro's Capture Is Greenland Next? + HUGE Development in Ukraine Russia & MAHA from Impact Theory. Auto-generated from episode audio; may contain minor errors.

Good morning everybody. Welcome to the Tom Billu Show live. We are here to cover a world that is rapidly changing. This is absolutely wild. I certainly uh have never seen a period of transition like this, especially if you factor in AI. This is an absolutely um fascinating time. You cannot bury your head in the sand. Not at this moment. as Chinese oil tankers right now are trying to break the Venezuelan blockade. China has warned the US that if it wants war, it's going to get war.

Uh there are people that are Yes, there are people that are saying that we're already in the middle of World War II and we just don't know it yet. So, eyes peeled, everybody. Tensions continue to rise over Trump's insistence that America will gain control of Greenland one way or the other. They're not taking military intervention off the table. It appears that Iran has lost control of its first city as protests threaten to become a true revolution. There are unverified reports that US military assets are actually headed towards Iran right now to provide support to the protesters if needed, which much to my dismay isn't really about the protesters and has everything to do with the changing world order.

Uh but if that is what's happening, that would certainly match Trump's rhetoric around being willing to stand up for the protesters. And Poly Market gives a 77% chance that the Supreme Court is going to rule Trump's tariffs unconstitutional. unconstitutional. unconstitutional. And on top of that, you've got Trump reducing the vaccine schedule from 72 down to 11, if my notes are correct. So, wild times, Drew. Wild times. Um, I think it's hilarious to me and it's not really funny because we're in the middle of like a war and there's Yeah.

Which which part of this exactly is hilarious? is hilarious? is hilarious? We're mobilizing to Iran. Russia's trying to fly everybody out. There's a lot happening. lot happening. lot happening. There is a lot happening. I I want to just shout out China and the size of their nuts cuz the fact that they had the oil tankers in the beginning in the Venezuela and they was like, "Oh, you just captured the president oil tanker." And they just kind of like stared at us. Now, I don't know what happened with the Chinese uh tanker, but the Russian Russians were also doing Russian.

We got it. But I know that that's been breaking news on everybody's radar about the tankers that's happening in the Caribbean Sea. So, if you could give us a rundown of that and let us know what's actually happening. Yeah, for sure. So, Chinese oil tankers are breaking the US imposed blockade around Venezuela. The US announced a complete blockade in mid December of 25 to target the sanctioned shadowfleet tankers that were carrying cheap oil to China. Remember, all eyes on China. If you want to understand what's going on in Venezuela, you have to understand the dance that we are in right now with China through Cidad's trap, declining superpower, rising superpower, the Monroe Doctrine, all of that stuff becomes the backdrop with which to understand all of this.

Since the rest of Maduro, satellite tracking and shipping data indicate that there are at least 16 vessels, many of them super tankers, which are typically used to transport Venezuelan crude to China, which they're getting on discount, and they're not happy about that discount ending. Uh, and they departed Venezuelan waters despite the US blockade on these sanctioned vessels. And the ships are collectively estimated to be carrying over 20 million barrels of crude and fuel oil. That's up from the initial estimates of roughly 12 million. Many of them are operating in what they call dark mode, which is without a flag.

This is the whole thing about the Russian ship that they tracked down into international waters. They literally, from what it sounds like, ran out and like painted on the boat. No, bro. Good. We're Russian. It's all good. Absolutely wild. uh the way that these stealth fleets uh fly without flags. They have no safety documentation or transponder signals. All of it's gone and they do it to evade detection. Some of the tankers uh that were being used are even using spoofing tactics. So they have fake names and positions.

Uh and while their destinations right now still aren't entirely clear, their pre-blockade documents do indicate that their primary destination uh is China and then you've got a few that are going to Russia. So, it's unknown if the US is quietly allowing these shipments to go. Trump stated that major customers like China would continue receiving their oil. All of this stuff gets so wild because with one hand, you're going to smash people for doing this stuff. And on the other hand, you're going to be like, well, if we piss them off too much, we're going to have a real problem.

So, you're constantly from a diplomatic perspective trying to piss them off just enough so that they know you're serious, but not so much that they actually retaliate. So, we'll find out if these vessels are just successfully evading naval enforcement or if this is something that Trump is sort of looking the other way on purpose. Um, now also in breaking news, the US did seize the Russian oil tanker Bella 1, at least according to reports today uh out in the Atlantic Ocean. The tanker was previously sanctioned in 2024 for transporting illicit oil.

So yeah, look, this is really high tensions and I don't love the leaning into the World War II narrative, but you never know when this stuff starts. I will just say this that the tensions are high. This feels like here in California, this will make a lot of sense to people. You get a whole bunch of rain that grows all the brush. It looks green. You feel safe because everything is moist and all good. But then you go through a drought. Oh god, that word is like such a trigger for people.

Uh, so it all seems like everything is fine until the drought comes and then you realize, oh, we just completely populated this with kindling and that's where we're at now. So, we've got all these conditions where nothing's I mean, I won't say nothing's burning. obviously what's going on in Russia Ukraine. Uh if Iran does collapse, that's almost certainly going to put the US in a stronger position to basically reduce China's non USControlled cheap oil stream by like it's something like 70%. 70%. 70%. And so it that that's if Iran goes down.

So if that were to happen and China lost that vast majority of their cheap oil that's going to escalate tensions between the US and China. So it's one of those where man you've got a lot of kindling for things to pop off especially with the 2027 deadline where Xi said we are reclaiming Taiwan by then. But you've got Marco Rubio saying hey we've got commitments to China or to Taiwan and we do plan to stick with them. them. them. Japan is waiting in the wings too.

Like if China goes there I'm not full threatened. So, it's it really is it's one of those Drew I wish I'd been paying to pol pay paying attention to politics for the last 20 years to know how much of this is like uh this kind of thing just repeats over and over and over. over. over. Uh if this is just social media makes it all so visible or if it really is unusually escalatory, which is what it feels like right now. There's just so many pockets of instability.

Oh, and by the way, we have looming. We'll cover this more on Friday for sure, but we've got the looming Supreme Court decision around whether the tariffs are uh legal or not. And if the Supreme Court rules that the tariffs are illegal, that's going to have some dramatic impact on the market. I know better than to think I know exactly what's going to happen, but I imagine something's going to happen, especially if there are any indications in the ruling that the government is going to have to like refund refund refund cuz that's [clears throat] like $600 billion dollar or some crazy numbers.

So, [snorts] that could be wild. And Poly Market's clocking that at 77% chance. So, we'll see. Yeah, I'm hoping they don't play politics with that because we don't even have 600 billion to give back, let alone to, you know, get those gains back. There's so politics is merely frame of reference. So there's no way to not play politics. I used to think there was, but all of these judges are political animals and so they have a political frame of reference in that they have a bent to the right or the left and they get onto the Supreme Court because the president that's lucky enough to be in office when they have to make a replacement replacement replacement is going to pick them because they think that they're going to say the things that they want them to say.

And so looking at these as political appointments is certainly the right way. you have very ideologically driven people on both sides in there constantly battling for the soul of the Supreme Court. So it's interesting though because this Supreme Court I think most people would agree would leans to the right and so the fact that poly market is like well despite that uh we don't expect them to go for Trump. So they and they had some interesting breaks against party lines especially with immigration things like that so Supreme Court isn't a layup for the right.

right. right. I hope not. It shouldn't be. I mean, this really should be people that uh as much as a human is capable are setting their political leanings aside and saying, "My job is to interpret the Constitution, period. And my job is to tell you whether this aligns with what the founders had in mind or not." Uh, so yeah, I mean, do they do it all the time? I certainly don't think so. I think we're all so trapped inside of our frame of reference, it's very hard to set that aside, but fingers crossed.

Yeah, you talked about social media escalating it. Um, I'll take it over to President Donald Trump who tweeted yesterday, "I am pleased to announce that the interimm authorities in Venezuela will be turning over between 30 to 50 million barrels of high quality sanctioned oil to the United States of America. This oil will be sold at its market price and the money will be controlled by me." I just feel like you could have wrote that sentence better. It could have been controlled like you didn't need. We didn't need that.

But okay, he's so transparent. He doesn't even necessarily mean to be, but he is so transparent. Not controlled by the US government by me like allocated by our our administration. Nope, by me. I'm doing it. Yo, Yo, Yo, to ensure its use to be benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States, I have asked Energy Secretary Chris Wright to execute this plan immediately. It'll be taken by storage ships and brought directly to unloading docks in the United States. Thank you for your attention to the matter.

So, in uh the neocons were right. Did we go into Venezuela for oil? I understand we have to break the China regime and all that, but we didn't talk to Xi or anything. We got Maduro in in court, but we did also get 30 to 50 million barrels of oil. So, yeah. So, is this about oil? Uh, it's about all of it. It's a little bit about drugs. It's a little bit about oil. It's a little bit about the fact that when they uh nationalized the oil industry back in the whatever 60s or 70s that they jipped us out of something like $5 billion.

It's a little bit about that stuff. But you have to ask, why did Trump come to power? Why Trump populism? Why populism? Because you have a global problem where you have completely destroyed your economy. You've outsourced your jobs and you now have a rising superpower that is diminishing your ability to control your own destiny. destiny. destiny. And so when put in the framework, I'm not saying this is only about China. I'm saying there's a reason it's happening now because we've had this problem with Venezuela for 50 years.

We're just suddenly doing something about it. So getting to understand that why suddenly we're willing to invade another country and kidnap their however evil he may be dictator. Uh that requires some explaining and that to me is where you get into the China of it all. And if you don't look at it through the backdrop of Thusidities's trap of of the fact that if you look at this moment like it's a game of poker. If people play poker, they're going to understand this. And I don't play it a lot, but you do understand when you're playing if you're big stack and you, let's say, you've got something good off the flop.

Or maybe you don't have something good off the flop, but you can tell that nobody else does either. You've got one chance as the bully to force people out and just take the blinds. And because you can bet so big and nobody's going to be able to mount, you can take people all in and it's like a very minor part of your pot. And so people just start going, I want to live to fight another round where maybe I've got better cards. And that's what we're doing now is we're saying, "Okay, wait.

We've still got the big stack so we can bully people and we're going to bully them off the X." And that is essenti authority. It's got a nervous aggressive energy to me, but nonetheless, it's that's game theory being played out in real time. The stakes obviously could not be more consequential, but nonetheless, it's like you've got to come in big and aggressive and get other people to back down. And so, it's like we're going to see the we are seeing the same thing play out in Greenland, for instance.

instance. instance. Yeah. Um, okay. Now, this is the other side. Um, the US is now introducing socialism to Venezuela, and they're saying that chug and cheek, but there was an article yesterday that said the US may subsidize oil companies to rebuild Venezuela's energy infrastructure. He also mentioned yesterday that the oil companies did have a heads up that he was going into Venezuela. So, it does seem very much um I have to take care of my corporate interest. Uh, I don't know if I have to please the donors.

I don't know what that buzzword is, but it does seem like Venezuela is now being unfolded as we're days and time is starting to pass. We're starting to see other layers that are within this. So, how do you feel about the US subsidizing potentially oil companies to go in Venezuela and rebuild their infrastructure? their infrastructure? their infrastructure? Well, I think it is literally uh it's not introducing socialism, but it is certainly using the um style of governance of socialism, and everybody should be terrified of this.

This is exactly what happens when you run a country like it's a company. So, while I love having a president that actually understands business, I love having a president that understands how to get a deal done. I love having a president that understands leverage. I love that he surrounded himself with people that understand the economy. All of that stuff is absolutely wonderful. The problem is what you're seeing is somebody who's used to running a company. And in a company, you might have a board, but it's like you're gonna you are paid to like make bold decisions, do things to even if you've got people that are against you to do the thing, as long as it works, like everybody's happy.

And you can't run a country like that. Like we are a democracy. And so no one is arguing that a dictatorship is more efficient. A dictatorship is efficiency at its finest. It's the very reason that companies are run, especially private companies, companies, companies, are run like a dictatorship. But the problem is, just like in a company, if I run this company off of a cliff, there's no one to stop me. But I will go off the cliff, cliff, cliff, when you run a country like that, you get something like Venezuela where it's like, yeah, Hugo Chavez ran the country into the ground.

There was no one to stop him. Maduro made it way worse. There was no one to stop him. So when you have no one to stop you, you've got problems. And so this is why if you're looking at Trump and you don't recognize that he has authoritarian tendencies. Now he may have CEO like authoritarian tendencies where you really do care about your employees and you understand that they could leave. And so you get all of that and you're not necessarily um you know in the streets killing your opposition.

opposition. opposition. You take a totally different approach. But nonetheless, if you're going to run this like I'm the one that controls the oil, I'm going to be the one doing the thing and all of that stuff, you now open this huge potential to be blind to something and drive yourself off a cliff. Let me paint a picture. Right now, he is alienating our allies in Europe. Now, he's running some algorithm, something like, uh, they're going to go their own way. There's nothing I can do to help them.

I've tried and tried and tried to get them to cooperate with what makes good sense for all of us. They just wouldn't listen, maybe. But nonetheless, he's doing things that are alienating them, that are straining the relationship, that are getting I swear I saw somebody say this, but I tried to track it down again. Uh, and Grock told me that it uh there are no confirmed reports of this, but I'm pretty sure that somebody in Europe literally said, "We have to be ready to fight the US." meaning like, hey, if they invade Greenland, we've got to militarily push back.

We can't just let them take it. So that when you've got that rhetoric happening, even though right now it's just rhetoric, but when you've got that rhetoric happening, you put yourself in a very weird position because you're now driving Europe into the arms of guess who? China, Russia. Now, they have a super strained relationship with Russia for sure, for obvious reasons, and we'll talk later. We've got a segment coming up about the escalation of Europe via Ukraine against Russia. Russia. Russia. But if you even just look at China for a second, if they start going, huh, we have to create opportunities with China.

Or let's say they even just do this. We Europe are going to back Canada, buddying up to China. Canada. I think this is going to start coming out more and more. Canada has some of the like most non-existent anti- money money laundering laws ever. They make essentially all of their money through real estate. real estate. real estate. I have a bad feeling if we start looking at like what foreign nationals are buying up a ton of their real estate that we're going to be like, "Huh, there's a lot of people from China pouring money into Canada." This is pure speculation.

I want to be very clear, but I could see something like that where they don't even necessarily have to get in bed directly with China in order to give China comfort. So you simply back Canada's play to do that. Now Canada is able to give China an advantage in North America or even just get again more great oil deals. if we continue to rise our tensions with Canada and aren't buying oil from them and are trying to leverage oil against them because hey, we've now got this Venezuelan oil, we don't really need your oil, they're going to look for a buyer.

So, if they've got the support of um Europe to have a relationship with China, you could see something like that happening. Again, I'm not saying this is happening. I'm just saying if I'm Trump or I'm advising Trump, I'm like I'm not going to blind myself to there is a point at which you bully somebody so much that they go, "Nah, [ __ ] this kid." Like even if it's not in their best interest. Remember, just for like green stuff, Europe did some of the most economically suicidal [ __ ] ever.

So, if they get angry enough, there is other plays. Now, I don't think that that's like them rushing to it, but I found I was looking for the thing that um Europe warns us. If you invade Greenland, it triggers NATO. So there'll be a NATO response to the Greenland thing. So to your point, it it was there. I forgot who said it. The foreign minister Johan minister Johan minister Johan German last name. I think that's exactly how it's pronounced. Well said. Uh so yeah. So anyway, I think Trump needs to be way more careful than he's being.

I think everybody needs to be tense that he is running the country like a company. there are going to be consequences to that. When he's right, it's great and he'll be efficient and he'll move quickly and he'll be able to make bold decisive action and sometimes that can be very exciting and I certainly for one want to see him push China out of our hemisphere. I think that's an absolute must. But at the same time, you've got to do the job of getting the American people on board.

So, and our allies. So, without doing that, I think in the long run, it's going to end up weakening our position. I'm also very worried that what he's really going to do is overextend overextend overextend the empire uh and take on Venezuela, then take on Cuba, then start having beef with Europe, and then start having beef with Canada. And it's like you start doing all of that stuff and you just end up understand Roman Empire history of like Yeah. So, it's like they were spread out.

It is inevitable that Venezuela ends up being more expensive and more problematic than you expect. just everything takes twice as long and costs twice as much. And so you start doing that in a bunch of different places and it's like, yeah, maybe over a 10-year time horizon that works, but you're in a position right now where your debt to GDP ratio is such that in the next 10 years already you're going to go bankrupt. So you've got all this fraud happening in the US anyway. You start putting all these pieces onto the table and it's just like, bro, you need to be a little bit more careful.

the US system is designed to protect you from things like that. like that. like that. Uh but he's running roughshod over that. We've got total dysfunction in the relationship between Congress and the executive branch. So it's like uh th this is one of those where there's going to need to be some restraint. Now I would love to see Trump self-restrain. That would be wonderful, but it's not in his character. And so that means that it's going to have to come from a combination of the judiciary and the Congress.

So we'll see what that looks like. It could start with them shooting down his tariffs. That one could get very complicated. But chat's backing you up on uh Vancouver having a lot of Chinese investment. Yeah, I I here I'll plant a flag. I'm at the very early stages of researching this, but I have a very bad feeling that what Canada has realized is that, okay, if we're going to be green, uh, we need to have very poorest borders, completely ignore money laundering, open up the one thing we've got going for us, which is our real estate market, and uh, we've got to let a lot of Chinese nationals come either come in physically or buy up a bunch of our assets and we're going to realize that Canada largely because of these hyperlberal policies, open borders, uh wanting to move away from um oil and uh non-green energy sources realize, well, we've got to generate our GDP from somewhere.

And so there have been watchdog groups that have been signaling for years that Canada has been basically playing a financialized game uh without any of the guard rails. So that could get wild and we'll see. Yeah. And all this is on the back of Greenland. Um can you level set with us on that? Um because I also want to put that on the table because as Trump took in Venezuela and now is dealing with the blowback one mention of Greenland and I feel like there's also been similar blowback joint statements and stuff like that.

So before we get into all that, can you [snorts] level set us about Greenland? Greenland? Greenland? Yes indeed. So if we can pull up number three, Eric, that would be wonderful. So uh yeah, Greenland is going to continue to be a flash point. Trump is saying up and down that we are going to control Greenland. Uh and now that he's got control of Venezuela, this is where I expect people know that he's willing to make a move. this is going to change the way that people approach Trump.

And that's one of the things that's got most of Europe telling him to back off. Uh but Trump has repeatedly stated that the United States needs to control Greenland for national security reasons. And he said directly to reporters, Greenland is covered with Russian and Chinese ships all over the place. And we need Greenland from the standpoint of national security. And Denmark, this is still part of the quote, and Denmark is not going to be able to do it. So that's end quote. Needless to say, Denmark has vehement disagreement with that statement.

They believe that they're that nobody needs anything more, that they've been doing this for a very long time. They've got it completely under control. But Trump is not budging on this one and is not going to rule out using military intervention, which is wild. Multiple people from the White House have backed that up. Yesterday, White House press secretary Caroline Levit said in a statement, and I quote, "President Trump has made it well known that acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States. The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue, this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the US military is always an option at the commander-in-chief's disposal." Talk about bullying.

That's the end of the quote. All right. White House Deputy Chief of Staff Steven Miller, who's not known for his restraint, echoed the sentiment, asserting the US's entitlement to Greenland. I hate that, but nonetheless, he did it. Uh, and dismiss the possibility of military opposition. Not that we wouldn't do something militarily aggressive, but that we wouldn't get any opposition if the US does decide to be aggressive. He said, and I quote, "Nobody's going to fight the United States military over the future of Greenland. Now, the way that I'm reading that is him saying like, "Yeah, we might go in there and no one is going to do [ __ ] about it.

Who going to stop me?" Period. Yeah. So, now it's unclear how serious Trump is actually getting about being aggressive versus just trying to bully Denmark off the X, which is certainly his style. But all of the smacktalking has prompted a stern joint statement which you're going to see more and more of these European joint statements from seven major powers Denmark's Met Frederickson that's my best guess France's Macron Germany's MS UK's Starmer plus Italy Poland and Spain they all declared uh something aimed at the US and they said these are universal principles sovereignty territorial integrity inviability of borders and we will not stop defending them." End quote.

So, yeah, we'll see. I mean, look, all of this is rhetoric. I'm not expecting some huge blow up over Greenland, but this is where like you just start bothering enough people with each one of these moves. You make someone inside of the different countries your enemy, and you start stacking up enough enemies, and eventually people will do things even that go against their best interest because they feel some type of way. So yeah, Trump should not act as if you can just bully bully bully. He's going to have to have some carrots.

Now, the carrots are always economic. So if you've got a way to either use the Venezuelan crude oil to lower the costs in uh across Europe for energy, okay, maybe uh if you really get behind. So it was interesting to see that they did join in uh backing some of these pro- Ukrainian Ukrainian Ukrainian um support mechanisms that we're talking about. We'll get to that in a minute. But um that could be a way like listen, I'm going to be slapping you around in Greenland, but like we're going to really back you over here and I know you guys care about this a lot more than you care about Greenland.

I'm seeing a lot of comments in the chat. My general consensus is that like Europe don't want these problems. Y'all haven't fought a real world since the 40s. Y'all can't even take care of your own stuff. We're still the number one military. We got it. Now, I don't want this to just be American hubris, but is it really like nobody can stop America and we're just uh we're going to keep expanding until we meet a sustainable force that can stop us? Yes, certainly. Right now, but remember, it's there are two things that will restrain a nation.

Thing number one is just military might. You run into another military. We're not going to go [ __ ] roll up on China. We know that that would be suicide. But yeah, but like speaking of Greenland, I don't see anybody on the Greenland side rolling up with a tank trying to meet us. Correct. And I think Stephen Miller is right about that and we'll get to that in a second. The second thing is the own internal conscience of your country. So your country has a culture. It has a value system and it will stop you from overstepping that value system.

So that's the thing that's going to keep us in check. So it becomes a question of how much is Trump willing to ignore the populace or how much is the populace behind him. Maybe he can sell it and everybody's like, "Yeah, let's go get Greenland." Greenland." Greenland." Okay. So those are the two forces that can restrain you. Now, in terms of him going into Greenland, if he's really that serious and really is that concerned about something, uh, because there you can look at maps and understand why Greenland really is so important.

If you believe that Russia is a major problem for you, if you believe that Russia and China, Yeah. if you can look at your screens, uh, if you believe that Russia and China are pairing up against you, that any nuclear potential nuclear strike coming out of Russia would go directly over Greenland, and so you want the ability to intercept or shut it down or whatever. Uh, or you're just worried about the because I think there's enough melting going on that you're actually at some point going to be able to take ships like through a lane there.

I have not researched that. Like I'm purely at the headline level, but people were saying that like Chinese and Russian ships might have a way that's faster than one of the other routes that you can take because of melting. If that ends up being true, and I don't know that it will, but if it ends up being true and you're trying to protect yourself, make sure that you can control those lanes, um, then I get why you get on a hobby horse about Greenland and you get really serious about taking back control of the Panama Canal and taking control of this area in Denmark.

uh sorry, Greenland controlled by Denmark. So, I get it. Um and if you do it, certainly Europe isn't going to make that the flash point and push back militarily, but you break NATO at that point. You go, "Hey, NATO is this alliance where we all agree Russia's a problem and we're all going to protect each other should something bad happen." Well, if if you've got like a neighborhood watch and you're like, "Hey, we're good. We're going to keep everybody out." And then you break into your neighbor's house and take [ __ ] They're going to be like, "What the fuck?" like you ran the neighborhood watch.

Like bro, like this is dead now. We can't trust you. And so Trump uh he's acting like he doesn't get it. I think he gets it. I think he knows. Certainly he's going to have people around him that know. that know. that know. So that's one of those things. It's like would anything happen immediately if you break NATO? No. Will it play out over five or 10 years? Possibly. And that's where like breaking your allies now like just not a wise idea. But listen, at some point, if you've got an agenda that you really can if if let's say he's right, run the thought experiment, back yourself into the difficult corner.

If you, dear listener, were to see all the information and you, dear listener, walk away going, "Oh, we really do have to have Greenland." Then it's like, what do you do? Do you run the risk that, "Okay, I'm going to alienate myself. I'm going to be isolated, but I'm still the strongest military on planet Earth. I am still first or second largest economy. Uh, so I'm certainly not without a lot of power. I know China's in trouble. China is pumping money into their economy as if it were COVID.

It's wild. Uh, and they have to. So, they're in an economically fragile position. So it's like you know that it's not like they can just go guns ablazing either. So it's like you can sort of set them aside pure competitor going to have to deal with them in a minute but for right now I just I know I've got to protect myself from a Russia China alliance. I know that these shipping lanes are opening. Remember this is a hypothetical but I know that these shipping lanes are opening.

So I have to be very careful. I've got to lock this down. I know that if they were going to launch a nuclear strike which feels maybe increasingly likely I've got to control that airspace. to do that. I've got to control Greenland. I'm looking at Europe and I'm like, these [ __ ] haven't done anything uh to beef up the defenses there in god knows how long. We pay for most of their defenses anyway. I do not trust Denmark with like a key strategic defensive area. Now, remember in this thought experiment, you, dear listener, agree with all of this.

Then what do you do? Now, in that thought experiment, we might say, "Ooh, it's tough because I put myself in a weakened position." and down the road that may come back to bite me in the ass. But I have a today problem and I've got to address my today problem. So I can see Trump building a mental model where that's the truth and he feels like he has to do this now. I don't have enough information to believe that that's true. So for me I'm like what are you doing?

This is crazy talk. Like you've got enough cover story with China on the um Venezuela because you had a [ __ ] dictator that was inviting him in. Denmark is your ally, your longstanding ally. So, bro, go to them and be like, "Hey, we want to put some joint forces here." I don't have to like control everything in name. I can just be like, "Listen, we want to help you, Denmark. We have a reason. Let's put all these troops here. Let's make sure that our guys are like in charge of how we're running the watch mechanisms.

Let's build whatever we need to build." But it's yours. is like, "We love you guys." You know, ally, ally, ally. Sure. At any time, you know, later, you can play this [ __ ] card of I'm militarily going to take you over. So, if you know you've got that card, why be a dick right out of the gate? Like [ __ ] seduction, boys and girls? But who am I kidding, Drew? This is the guy that when he flirts with a chick, he grabs him in the [ __ ] [ __ ] It's wild.

And you were seeing this manifest like he's grabbing Greenland by the [ __ ] That's what's happening right now. now. now. Please, please. I never something clipped more. Please, can we please buy a bottle of wine? Okay, let's slow this. Take me out to dinner first. You know what I mean? Like, listen, she's telling you she's into you. You don't have to open with that move. This is so wild. So, yeah. I mean, there are better ways to do this. Uh, we already have bases on Greenland, though.

So, that's what's like I I think what is being told is different than the underlying story. So, I do think that there is something in a Manila envelope that if they slid across this desk, I'll be like, "Yep, we need Greenland. We need to go right now." But if you're just telling me it's for national security, we have two bases there already. We have the most bases in any country. We have bases in South America. We have bases in Europe. We have bases in Japan. We have bases around all the people that even might think about doing something to America.

We even have a whole nation state in Israel that So, we have every proxy we can need. So, to bang your drum about Greenland, similar to Venezuela, oh, he's a dictator. He's a dictator. Oh, yeah. We got 30 billions of oil. So, I'm sure with Greenland's going to be the same things. National security. National security. Oh, we got a real Earth deal for the next 40 years. Like, there's definitely something else that we're not being shown that's not being talked about that is fueling this motivation cuz I don't buy the whole security guarantee thing.

guarantee thing. guarantee thing. Well, so anytime you can advantage yourself economically, that's going to sweeten the pot for sure. And so if Trump is looking at my tariffs might be uh going away and I've got to by midterms, I've got to have made things better for the American people. I mean, it's certainly possible that it's just like, okay, I've got a China problem. Uh they can choke me out from a rare earth mineral perspective. I need to solve that. He says he's already solved it. Maybe he has, maybe he hasn't.

That's part of it. Uh oil helps a little bit. I mean, so it's possible that that's playing a bigger role in his decision-m than I think, but I really when I look at this and I go, um, this is just a president who's trying to increase America from an economic position going in and doing a strike on Venezuela and stealing their uh, kidnapping their um, dictator when you know that like there are now uh, gangs roving the streets that are pro Maduro that are like pulling people over and checking to see if they've posted anything on social media that's proTrump.

So, it's like, you know, that overseeing all of that long term is going to just be filled with question marks. So, if you're only doing it for that reason, like Jesus Christ, this would be the dumbest way. Go back to drill, baby, drill. Like, go back to building better alliances in the Middle East. All of that would make sense. But going into a hostile nation and trying to take them over, trying to like coup the government. What? Now, when you go, they were allowing China in my backyard.

Yeah, cool. That I get like when you look at the Bay of Pigs, I've got a deep dive coming out on Venezuela on Tuesday. Make sure you guys check that out. I go into detail around this like to understand how ferociously one country will respond when they believe that their adversary is posting up uh an advantage in your backyard. America walked America and Russia walked the entire world to the brink of nuclear annihilation annihilation annihilation because Russia moved weapons into Cuba. And America was like, "We will legitimately nuke you.

You have to get them the [ __ ] out." And like that's the you you push a nation into believing that it has an existential threat on its doorstep. Once I go, that's the mental model that his adviserss have. Like, forget, remember, Trump's not a guy sitting alone in a room being like, "We should invade Venezuela." He's surrounded by a bunch of people that are like, "Bro, let me walk you through the history. Let me show you how this stuff plays out. Let me tell you about the Monroe Doctrine." Right?

So, this is when you plug it into that, boom, it clicks into place. And it's like, "Oh, the oil's a sweetener. Oh, being able to pay back our companies who I'm sure have been barking at every president since the 70s about give me my [ __ ] money back. Uh, all of those are sweeteners for sure. Like it's not like that stuff is lost on him. But I'm just saying you don't make a move this potentially risky because listen, between now and the midterms, Venezuela could go so wrong.

Like anybody that's clapping like a seal and is like, "Oh, Venezuela is settled." What? Like right now Maduro's number two is in position and you may have to coup her if she gets out of pocket. So, it's like if the US citizen watches you keep sending like these lightning strikes to do like the crazy snatch them in the middle of the night exercises, they are going to get increasingly nervous. So, this has to start paying off. It has to pay off quickly. It could go wrong a thousand different ways.

So, if it was just about the money, there's just easier ways to make money. Yeah. Um, all right. I want to put a a pin in this. Like, yes or no. I can give me a couple sentences. On one side, if we do take Greenland, Europe has said that they will are willing to respond. I'll leave it at that. On the other side, China, these are rumors, has been working to get a bit more purchasing agreements, a bit more exclus exclusivity deals with the European Union in general.

A lot of people say that they're trying to do that to kind of replace America, their number one uh consumer. Is there a world where we take Greenland, piss off Europe so much that they run to the arms of China, run to the arms a bit more dramatic, but you get what I'm saying? Yes. Where now we have our territory, we got Greenland, we got Venezuela, but now everybody is fundamentally quote unquote on the other side of that line. I don't think they would move fast.

I think that they would have a very hard time emboldening China because they know emboldening China is emboldening Russia. So I think that they are going to have like they'll sketch out. they will be very like, "Oh god, this is not something that we want to do." But they will find themselves in a position if they were to completely alienate America. Like if we actually ended up in a military conflict over um that is where you end up with that where they're like, "Oh god, we've got nothing but bad choices." Um so we'll see.

I don't think that they would rush to do anything. I think the look early days of me thinking through how this would play out 100%. The odds that I think this exact same way in a month are virtually zero. But my initial thinking is it would be some sort of soft relationship with a ton of cover story where you're doing something like uh turning a blind eye to um Canada's relationship with China that they either start selling them oil or whatever. Uh, and so you're not directly getting in bed with China cuz I think that puts them in a really weird position, but you are you have to find ways to make up for what you lose if you get into open hostilities with America.

But honestly, I think the most likely scenario is they just don't end up in open hostilities with America. I think the most likely scenario is that Trump is trying to bully them. He'll only bully them so far. he'll know to back off enough that Denmark will strike some sort of cooperative deal where it's like you don't get to call it Trump land but like you do get a move over security forces or whatever or we run it jointly or I mean it is possible that they sell it.

So if they can have a win where it's like oh we just generated I mean I don't know what the population of Denmark is exactly but it's not going to be huge. What are we calling it? Somewhere 30 to 60 million. Can we look this up somebody? somebody? somebody? So it's not going to be like some big crazy number. So it's like if you buy it for billions of dollars, six million six million six million six six six six that's Denmark. Oh my god. Say is a couple thousand, bro.

You could make you could make that country wealthy on a per capita basis. Greenland is 56,000 people. There was a Greenland is whatever. But if you like Denmark is who you have to worry about. Oh, okay. Oh, okay. Oh, okay. So, if you go and cut a check to Denmark that Danish citizens either get something put into a sovereign wealth fund if they have one or it's like pays for uh reduced taxes or it's just a check in their bank. Uh and then obviously spill over to Greenland as well.

And so the actual citizens walk away going, "Holy [ __ ] like we just made a ton of money." Um Um Um it's possible. it's possible. it's possible. Somebody said you could give every citizen in Greenland a million dollars and it'll cost us 60 billion. Yeah, that's in Greenland. So again, Greenland's not your beef. It's like you've got to worry about European allies. If Denmark is pissed, Europe is going to be pissed. And so you have to be careful about that. So we'll see. But that feels way more likely that they understand.

Okay. I'd much rather be in bed with a um obnoxious America than be in bed with a very crafty China. Like China Like China Like China man. Yeah. Who would you rather do your cell infrastructure, Huawei or Verizon? I'm not saying either is totally clean, but like yesesh, I don't want I don't want Huawei doing my Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. my stuff. We'll see. From the chat, if you try to cut the world in half, what happens with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Taiwan? Like, we're talking about very specific countries like countries like countries like all those people are coming to America.

No, Japan's too close to China. Like they'll try, but they're going to have real they will have to contend geographically with China and China will isolate them economically. China will be able to able to able to uh on a long enough timeline, I worry that they're going to I worry they're going to be able to vaselize vaselize vaselize Japan. Now, Japan is a very strong economy, but they're in trouble. So right now their 30-year bond rate is going up up up up. And what that means is people don't want Japanese debt anymore.

And so Japanese debt for a long time was sort of stealthily fueling the global economy. Like hey, where do we get all this debt? Largely from Japan. So it's like that's already in trouble. So now what ends up happening to Japan in a world where China is both angry and extremely powerful? they will at some point force Japan to either escalate militarily, in which case if the US doesn't get involved, they just get hammered uh or back off. And now it's like, well, well, well, China owns geographically from a military perspective, they control everything.

everything. everything. So now they de facto have a blockade on all of your imports. And yeah, in the same way that South America is under the wing of America, you can be as nice or as hateful about that as you want, Japan would be under the wing of China. And so that's sort of what's happening. That's one of the reasons that Taiwan is such a flash point is Japan is like, "Hell no, we cannot have Chinese vessels patrolling that sea and controlling what can and can't get to us." Absolutely not.

hard pass, but they can't stop it unless America gets involved. And so the question is, if we're really dividing the world up east west, is the US really going to fight for that? I don't know, man. Th this is where it's like when people go, you're already in World War II and you just don't know it yet. I'm like, I hate that. But you see the kindling. Um, on one side, I just need to pick one. On one side, we got America first. No new wars, no new one.

new empires. On the other side, we have Greenland, Venezuela, and whatever repercussions come with that. Which door do you pick? Right now, knowing what I know, uh 100% you chill on Greenland. Okay. Okay. Okay. Like that. Just keep Europe your allies. The Russia thing isn't going away anytime soon. Russia and China are extremely allied. extremely allied. extremely allied. Prosecute Maduro. Get out of Venezuela. Call it a day. Prosecute Maduro. Make sure that you have a friendly regime in place. um let the world know if you're not friendly to the US and you're in our sphere of influence, there's going to be a [ __ ] problem.

And then try not to need to back it up. So if we shore up the Americas and we get Canada on our side, we get Canada to stop whatever madness they're doing in terms of open borders, money laundering, whatever, whatever. Um all of that and then all the way down to the tip of South America. Um, if we can like repackage all of that with a strong Europe, good relationships in the Middle East, we're in a good position. You're multi-polar to be sure, you're no longer able to get whatever you want, wherever you want, whenever you want it.

Uh, but if Iran falls, man, if Iran falls, Europe is still feels like an ally. Canada and all of South America like are staunchly in your camp. you are in a very good position because between taking out Venezuela and Iran taking itself out, bro, China is now in hard times in terms of getting that really cheap oil. It's just I'm in Russia at this point. So, that would be a very good position to be in. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. U All right, that's this is actually a good transition.

Walk us through Iran. We got it queued up for you. Um know what's going on out there. Yeah, this this one is getting wild. Iran is entering day nine or 10 depending on whose uh line you're clocking this at of their ongoing nationwide uprising due to their absolute economic meltdown which virtually nobody's talking about. It is always about the economy, boys and girls. Always about the economy. If you want a revolt in your country, slash your GDP and inflict something like 20,000% 20,000% 20,000% loss of value to their currency in like whatever the last 5 or 10 years.

I mean, it's just absolute insanity. Iran's real hit a record low against the dollar. And that has exacerbated food price hikes and shortages all over the place. And that is exactly why Iran is experiencing its most significant wave of anti-government protests since the 2022 woman life freedom movement. Demonstrations have spread to a reported 27 out of 31 provinces. It feels like it's growing because it includes places that have long time been considered strongholds of the regime. You've got merchants who helped get the current regime in place by the way almost 50 years ago.

Students and ordinary citizens. All of them are involved. Even the police in some places are symbolically putting their weapons down and waving supposedly. These are the reports. I can't confirm that it was a police, but it does seem to be. Uh, and these are the people that are ultimately going to be the ones that get the regime toppled if all of those groups are banding together. And right now, rights groups are reporting at least 35 deaths so far. I've seen reports all over the place down to like 11 all the way up to 35.

So, little unclear exactly how many, but President Trump has warned Iran that the US is, and I quote, locked and loaded if Iran is killing protesters. There's unsubstantiated reports that we actually have military assets headed towards Iran right now. We'll see if that ends up being true, but all of that has prompted Tyrron to send a letter to the UN accusing the US of interference. Honestly, it's true. The US right now is trying to interfere anywhere that it can. Uh so when you recognize that that's increasingly our MMO, you will hopefully remember there's no international police.

There is only anybody that can inflict violence. And if nobody is going to stand up to the US, then the US is going to do what the US is going to do. And right now geopolitically, allies like Russia and China appear to be distancing themselves from the situation, which is only exacerbating Iran's isolation. The entire drama seems to be an echo of long-standing economic woes made worse by ongoing sanctions from a whole lot of countries, but most importantly the US post Israel Iran war fallout and their own internal military riffs.

Now this is obviously one to watch in an increasingly destabilized world, but this one's going to play out. What I like about this is that it's coming from inside the country. The call is coming from inside. their own people are uprising. Now, would I be at all surprised to find out that we have even more assets there than we had on January 6th? No, I would not. But we'll see. It's at least homegrown. Yeah. I'm curious to see how this dictates and changes the landscape because to your point that got us in here, if Iran drops, that will fundamentally change the map of the Middle East.

One, how Israel moves, how China moves. There's so many ripple effects that this one country has writing on it. Um, so for it to be an internal revolt is just I don't want to say perfect timing, but it's very convenient that it's happening right now. now. now. It's very convenient, dude. This is where I'm like, oh, the people programming the the Matrix. They really want to see something pop off. But I mean, look, history just moves in these weird waves where you get rogue waves of everything happening at once.

And it it's when you start getting populism is when you've got like weird things are about to start happening cuz you get things like the US suddenly going from almost like a dormant nation to a hyperactive nation with its hands all over the place. So yeah, we'll um we will be watching this one closely because if if Iran falls, you never know what's going to replace it. Remember, it could be 10 times worse. Maybe it's better. But I remember the Arab Spring and it was like everybody had such high hopes and then nothing really good came of it.

of it. of it. Do you think that this changes the game with Israel, Gaza, and that those peace ceasefire talks and things like that? Well, for sure because you've got so many of those terror organizations are being backed by Iran. And if Iran isn't able to back them, I mean, this is part of why I'm guessing part of why they've gone so quiet is they just don't have the money to fund the military operations that they might otherwise have. So, um, you know, so many people said that the October 11th attack was a direct result of the US unfreezing a bunch of their assets and then they just put that money to work with arming terrorist groups.

So, yeah, I mean, I think it is widely recognized that Iran is the largest purveyor of terrorism globally. globally. globally. So, yeah, this will have a um very significant impact on global terrorism depending on who rises to power inside of Iran. We'll see. Yeah. Um, all right. I want to take a look at the stock market for uh two real quick. Um, two things happened yesterday that were very, very interesting. The first one, um, we talked about Venezuela stock market has popped off. I think it ended at 50%.

There were reports as high as 75%. Yesterday spike spikes. Yeah. And as you can see, this this graph is zoomed in, but they were basically stair steps. So when Trump announced he was going into Venezuela, it was about a 10% bump. Then when we actually grabbed him, it wasn't that 10% bump. And then when we actually had him in custody, it kind of skyrocketed up. So that's wild. Do you know how much money people have made with a runup like this, Drew? If you saw this coming and you put money in, this is how people go broke.

But keep in mind, this is also how people get rich. It's like if you are like, "Wait a second. If we can get rid of Maduro, of Maduro, of Maduro, the stock market's going to spike because people will think, oh, it's a return to capitalism. This is going to be great for the country, great for the economy. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Let me get in." in." in." That kind of runup. Oh my god. If you have a substantive amount of money, that's wild. that's wild. that's wild.

Millions were made. Millions were made to the people who had them. I would be curious to see if billions were made. were made. were made. I I don't know. I haven't looked closely enough at it. But a spike like that, oh my god, my god, my god, it's crazy. This is It just depends on who had the ball. 09 Bitcoin spike right there. That's OG one. one. one. Insane. Insane. Insane. Um and then the second thing I want to pull up is something that I think has bigger ramifications than we're giving attention to.

Gold is now officially the largest global reserve asset. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Now I remember when we talked about it, dollar is a reserve currency of the world. Reserve currency. That's why we have this. That's why we're in this position. That's why empire is number one. Yada yada. Talking point. Talking point. point. point. But now with gold overtaking it, does that change our position? Does that impact? Is that motivating where all these wars are coming from? Because we can't just export the dollar anymore. I won't say that it's motivating where the wars are coming from, but it this is a sign of a long-term trend.

So when you print money, people are going to slowly wake up to the fact that they absolutely must get out of that currency. Needless to say, I've been banging this drum now for almost two years. It's like, you've got to react. And so people are reacting. And for me, even seeing the Chinese just aggressive acquisition of gold, I was like, whoa, like they're really going to make a play to back the yuan with gold. And in that scenario, that's another person who's like, "Yeah, I'm not buying US debt." If Japan isn't able to buy US debt, if Japan has to start selling US debt, oh god.

Uh now all of a sudden the US is back in hyperprint mode. You've got people at the Fed saying that we're going to lower rates by um 1%. So 100 bips. And it's like, oh my god, if we start doing that, the amount of debt that will be created, which is the same as printing money, is going to be absurd. Absurd. So yeah, that's what you see reflected here. This is people going, "Oh, I actually have to do something about the fact that over the last 5 years, we have inflated the US money supply by 25%." That China is now inflating their money supply.

I don't know the exact percent, but like at outrageous COVID levels. So, what do you do when that happens? You've got to get into assets. So, um, gold has been around for 2,000 years. Crypto obviously or Bitcoin, I should be very specific, a new fan favorite. Uh, equities for sure, but people are far more tense about their equities certainly in the short term. So, um, what are people going to go for? Gold, silver, I mean those are going to be plays and that's exactly what's happening right now.

Full disclosure, this is pumping my bags. So, I started buying um meaningful amounts of gold a while ago. Just like, yeah, yeah, gold uh saved my portfolio to end the year. Uh shout out to my mom for the late night call. Let's go, man. Um Um Um well, okay, so for those who are asset illiterate, illiterate, illiterate, um ground us for a second. Okay, Okay, Okay, where the dollar is now, where do you see it going? How should we move our money? I'm not saying, you know, throw it into gold, but it seems like, correct me if I'm wrong, the dollar's on the decline.

That would mean from a global perspective, more people are going to buy into gold as opposed to the dollar that they would have done 20 years ago. Is that a correct one to one? Can I keep going? going? going? You can. So, listen, I'm always tense about telling people what to do with their money. What they need to do is understand the physics of money and then make their own best estimation of where this is going to go. I really want to be useful to people.

So I'll give like ideas. I want to be very clear man. I could go broke. You could go broke. Everybody could go brokey broke. So like people just need to be very clear. I do not have some crystal ball. I am trying to get to the physics of money. Okay. From the way that I understand the physics of money, the US dollar is cooked. You would have to make just absolutely radical changes if to your balanced budget. If you don't balance the budget, I just assume the dollar's cooked.

Now listen, there are things that we could do to grow our way out of this for sure, but when I see a 77% chance that tariffs are going away, there goes a huge stream of revenue. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Uh when I see that we're expecting to lower the interest rate by 100 bips, which is a like if you're at 3%, that's going down to 2%. You're not lowering it by a percent, which is why people speak in bips. Anyway, hopefully people understand what that means. Uh, so when you make money cheap, money floods into the system.

Money gets created out of thin air. When you make money cheap, money gets created out of thin air, just to be very clear, it does so via debt, but nonetheless, it gets created out of thin air. thin air. thin air. So that means that we're going to be creating more and more money. Uh, which means that the dollar is going to be worth less and less unless we use that debt to be hyperproductive. meaning we create more tangible things that people want to buy. And if we do that at a higher rate, then we generate debt and money printing and all that.

Um, great. But we won't. And so that means that the dollar is going to continue to decline. As the dollar continues to decline and people realize that the US is just inflating, inflating, inflating, they are going to increasingly move away from debt and US debt. And that puts the US in a very difficult position because we have so much debt. Um we can't have interest rates go up because if interest rates go up, this is something called fiscal dominance. If interest rates go up, then we're in a position where we can't afford the debt payments.

And so, um, you instead choose the lesser of two evils, which is instead of an instant, um, seize up of the US credit system, you slowly steal all the money from everybody that holds US dollars. And so, they will choose to do that. So that tells me as somebody trying to map the physics of money and not giving you investment advice, but just the physics of money say uh you want to be in assets that can't be inflated that are likely to hold their value or go up over time.

Uh gold being one. Uh a newcomer but has a similarish profile would be Bitcoin though maybe that's more of a tech stock. People need to really think about that as they uh map their sense of what the physics are here. Um, but certainly not sitting in cash. That is like the very simple punch line. Not a savings account, not a bank account and put it somewhere. Unfortunately, you can't because they're just going to inflate that money away. Uh, Uh, Uh, does there is there anything tangible on our day-to-day perspective that gold becoming now the global reserve currency actually impact us?

Is this just a It just says that this really is the direction that it's going. And so once people once more and more people wake up to the fact that this is a direction that it's going, it will really flood in for a while and then other people will go there's no more money to be made here because everybody's in and your shoe shine boy is going to call you up next time and be like hey you should get into gold and that's when you're like okay no more buying gold.

Uh so and you're going to have to look for that next opportunity. And so if I could just get people to understand the stock market is smart money versus dumb money. Mhm. If you don't understand that, that's why you keep getting wiped out. And so people are smart money is always chasing a return. And so they're just looking at macro trends like this to find the place where smart money can get there a little bit sooner. Wait for the dumb money to come in. It's what's known as exit liquidity.

They sell to you and they get the [ __ ] out. And that's the whole game. That's why to not understand this as a casino is just stupid. And it it's like, look, I'm not denying that there aren't huge benefits, huge benefits. The stock market and all of its crazy gambling is a huge boon to civilization. I love it. I'm glad we have it. But you need to understand what it is. If you don't understand what it is, then you get mowed over by it. And you live in an economic setup where the assumption is that you own uninflatable assets because or they're just evil.

You can take your pick. But the economy is set up that your purchasing power of any dollar that you already have or are getting paid in will go down over time. By definition, by structure, it is architected to be that way. That's what inflation is. Inflation is the government acknowledging, I'm going to steal your money slowly over time. So, you better own assets that go up in value over time. You can sort of think of this as the ultimate tax loophole. that the stock market exists is the way that the vast majority of humans avoid the government confiscating their money through inflation.

They just find an asset class that goes up more over time than the um the government is able to steal through inflation. So the question becomes, well, why does it go up over time? And it will go up for one of two reasons. It will go up because of innovation, which is why I talk about innovation being one of the guiding lights. This is why America is better than every other [ __ ] country on planet Earth. Because we have optimized the structure of our government for innovation.

And that means private ownership. And all the people in Momby's cabinet, I'm looking at you [ __ ] who are going to rob us of innovation. innovation. innovation. But these things go up for either innovation or because people so many people are fleeing the money printing. The inflation makes it look like the value is going up. It's not really going up in value. It's just keeping up with inflation. So you're all because if you've got more money chasing the same number of goods, the price will naturally go up.

The value has not increased. For that you need innovation. But the price has gone up. So, at a minimum, you've got your money stored somewhere where you're keeping up with inflation. So, it's always a question of if inflation is whatever 25%, you better be making 30% on your money. If inflation is 3%, you better be making at least 4% on your money. Otherwise, you're actually treading water or going backwards even though theoretically it looks like you're up. You have to beat inflation. inflation. inflation. Nice. Uh, can we hit Augustine Max super chat?

chat? chat? Yes. And I have two other things in chat that I really want to get to as well um that are really interesting and we'll tie this last hour together. But the super chat from Augustine Mack, if gold is spiking and the dollar is on sale, isn't that the time to buy dollars? Five next. Five next. Five next. Now you're getting into trading. And if you are a hyper advanced trader that believes that you can do uh currency arbitrage, go for it. I am not that person.

I am not doing currency arbitrage. you have so much risk in currencies. Currencies tend to be high volatility. Uh so again, if you feel like you understand it and you see an opportunity, go for it. I do not see that same thing. I want to be in something that I don't have to think about for the next two to five years and it's just going to do its thing. And currencies are not that. Currencies are not good long-term plays. So if you're looking for somebody that can help you on arbitrage and rapid trading, I'm not your guy.

your guy. your guy. I never lost so much money than I did when I traded Forex. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You lose money instantly. like it like hard like it's literally your like it's increasing because the currency keeps changing and all but I digress. I digress. I digress. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Someone said the game isn't worth playing so invest in your What game? What game? What game? Investing. Investing. Investing. No, you have to. Your government listen, lean in. Your government has made it impossible for you not to play the game.

Not Not playing the game is saying I'm going to let my government bleed me to death. I need you to hear me on that. They have made housing impossible for you to afford. So, you can't even live inside of this forced savings account. That's gone. The other thing is getting into investing in into equities, into gold, into whatever, whatever, whatever. But you've got to get into something that will beat inflation. If you don't, you are moving backwards all the time. And your government is laughing all the way with an unbalanced budget.

Literally redistributing your wealth as somebody in the middle class, as somebody who's poor. They're redistributing your wealth. I'm not talking about the rich people. They know how to [ __ ] get around it. I made money in 2025, not just from impact theory. I made money off of my investments because I'm growing to understand it. The rich people redistributing their wealth. I get why some people get all excited about that. But I'm telling you right now, inflation is redistributing the wealth from the middle class and the poor poor poor to the most inefficient system in the universe, the government.

So please, please, please, please, I hate that you have to master it. I think it is immoral that you've been put in this situation. I think every government owes their citizens the right to have a currency that they can just save their money in and that that money will retain its value. But we don't live in that world. We live in an immoral world where central banks print money and every empire that has ever existed has done this to people. So because of that, and I feel your pain, but because of that, you must pay attention.

Oh, so facto on that one. So facto indeed. Uh, last one. Where does maintaining an empire and western hemisphere dominance fit into the balanced budget equation? How can a nation using sound money be a global superpower? This is a great question. Holy Jesus. Okay, so one of the reasons that everybody ends up printing money is I don't know that it would be possible to be a great superpower if you can't print money. print money. print money. There there in lies the sticking point. So the reality is that a central bank comes with huge benefits.

It just steals relentlessly from the middle class and the poor and it creates massive inequality. So what do you want? I can tell you how I think it should work. You should have a central bank in times of ne necessity. And so if we go to war, you spin up the central bank, you spin up income tax, all that. And then at the end of the war, you stop it all. But nobody ever stops. They go, "Oo, I really like all this stuff." And this is why when I have somebody that wants to work for me as an independent contractor, I'm always like, "You're going to be in tax trouble.

I can basically guarantee it because they love the extra money and they somehow convince themselves they don't actually have to pay that tax." And it's like, bro, you can have the money in your pocket if you actually know how to invest it. You are advantaged by getting to hold that money for the year, but I'm guessing that you don't do anything with it. You spend it and at the end of the year, you're like, "Oh, [ __ ] I now have a tax bill." And you're in a terrible position.

I've seen that happen over and over and over. Remember, as an employer, do you know how many people I've had to at the demand of the government, I've had to sequester their wages. It happens a lot. Like a lot a lot. So, uh yeah, I know that people are not good at paying their taxes. So, uh, alas, people need to understand the human tendency is once the good times start rolling, baby, they just cannot stop. And this is why every empire ever has fallen. They they money print and it just feels too good.

And they print more and more and more. And if you've got Venezuela, why not take over Cuba? If you've got Venezuela and Cuba, Brazil looks pretty good. It's like, and you overextend it. It is so [ __ ] predictable. It's hilarious. Mhm. Um, all right. We need to go over to Paris. The summit, the historic security pledge that European allies and America gave to Ukraine yesterday. This was like a talking point for Zalinski for a very long time. We didn't want to give it to him. Now he has it.

Um, hopefully this can be another talking point that can turn the ceasefire talks. But just like Russia has done in the past, they said, "Yeah, I'll sit. I'll meet with you." And then nothing ever changes. So yeah. Okay. Things are getting wild in Europe. European allies have rallied behind Ukraine with historic security pledges at the Paris summit that happened yesterday. It was admittedly a significant show of transatlantic unity amid ongoing tensions with Russia. You had leaders from over 30 European nations alongside representatives even from the US and Canada.

They convened in Paris to formalize robust security guarantees for Ukraine. The gathering has been dubbed the coalition of the willing and it marked the first time that the US has explicitly backed such commitments, signaling a potential shift towards a fortified post-war framework if a ceasefire is able to be reached with Moscow. Everybody's basically like, well, if you get a ceasefire, then we're going to do all this stuff, which I think disincentivizes Moscow from doing it. But anyway, that's the deal. Nobody's going to do it right now.

They're like, you first have to get to that ceasefire. The summit culminated in the signing of a declaration of intent by French President Emanuel Mcronone, British Prime Minister Kier Stararma, and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zalinski. The agreement outlines plans to deploy multinational forces in Ukraine following again a ceasefire. Uh it would include the establishment of military hubs across the country. The hubs would serve as protected facilities for weapons, equipment, training, all of it to bolster Ukraine's defensive capabilities and hopefully deter future Russian aggression. Again, this is why I think that this actually disincentivizes Russia, but they've got to do something.

Key elements of the pledge include multi-layer defense guarantees where allies committed to providing long-term armaments, training for Ukrainian forces, and air, land, and sea support. The US will lead a truce monitoring mechanism with European participation to verify compliance and address any breaches that come up. There would be troop deployments. France and the UK explicitly agreed to station troops in Ukraine post ceasefire. wild. A move described as politically and legally binding to restore peace in the event of renewed attacks. renewed attacks. renewed attacks. This sounds a lot like NATO to me, Drew.

I don't know what you think about it. This just seems like it's going to be a Russia hard pass, but we'll see. Broader support framework is also supplied. It will be a special commission will be formed to handle violations, attribute responsibility, and determine remedies. The guarantees aim to reassure Keev and prevent Russia from invading again. Building on a joint statement from a December 2025 meeting in Berlin, Zalinsky has hailed the agreements as a signal of how seriously Europe and the entire coalition are uh about working for real security.

And so, while Mcronone emphasized the robust nature of all of these commitments, we'll see if Russia is going to go for it since Russia has historically opposed NATO or allied troops in Ukraine, raising questions about its response. I don't know if it raises questions or if it lays down a very aggressive prediction, but I think Moscow is going to say [ __ ] off. But we'll see. We'll see. see. see. Yeah. Uh and then continuing that, the Hungarian prime minister is accusing the EU of just going to Ukraine for money.

Hungary. Hungary. Uh he sound like he was hating. These are like the I think one of the accounts is like based Hungary or Hungary based or something like Hungary doesn't play around. The Hungarian Prime Minister, Victor Orban, has accused the EU of committing to war, which I don't even think they would disagree with, by the way. They probably they don't like the word war, but if you're putting troops uh in there, sounds pretty warlike to me. Uh but what I know they would disagree with is Orban is saying they're doing it for financial gain.

He put out a press conference, pretty fiery, where he alleged that European Union leaders in Brussels have secretly decided to escalate their involvement in the ongoing Ukraine Russia conflict, framing it as a deliberate push towards war. Say that again. Framing it as a deliberate push towards war that basically they're money grubbing and they want to see this continue because they want their money back because they've invested a ton. Uh, and so Orban's direct claim is that the EU is holding military councils and is determined not to lose the war primarily to recoup substantial financial investments that they lent to Ukraine.

Orban has argued that the only way for the EU to recover its funds is if Ukraine defeats Russia. That would be gnarly. If this is all about like, yo, I've got to get my money back and we're going to help you, but you've got to beat Russia. Oof. That that backs everybody into a corner. And this has prompted increasing levels of participation from Brussels. So Orban highlighted that there's growing EU military support for the war and criticized what he describes as an overall pro-war stance among key figures.

The remarks posted on X by the account. Yes, I knew I was remembering this from somewhere. Uh Hungarybased specifically targeted EU Commission President Ursula Vanderlean and Orban specifically singled out Manfred Weber uh who's a liber leader of European people's party as the strongest wararmonger and a first rate fighter in advocating for continued conflict. The video, which has garnered hundreds of thousands of views, sparked heated online reactions with people debating the EU's role in the war and expressing skepticism about further escalation. Critics of EU echoed Orban's sentiments while others are accusing him of simply trying to sew division within the block.

So Hungary has long positioned itself as a skeptic of EU policies on Ukraine, advocating instead for peace over military aid. And this latest statement comes amid heightened tensions in Europe as a conflict is entering its fourth year and there's no resolution in sight. So this is going to be a wild one as EU officials um so far haven't even commented on all of his claims. But given the things they're saying and signing, they're trying to signal to Russia like we're in this together. Yes. But I feel like EU just signed a bunch more security uh pledges when they were talking about they'll start doing a percentage of their GDP to defense spending.

So they have committed to spending more money to defend their borders and make sure this conflict a conflict like this never happens again. I mean however hungry PM was kind of cooking like the only it is a financial motivation for me to help you end this war and we can't act like we end wars and hug everybody and go home and that's all that happens at a war. It's like nah checks get made, resources get reallocated, people get uh deals. So there is a financial incentive and we can't act like that doesn't exist.

What's really interesting is you've got Orban is coming from a populist standpoint. So Orban is like all this like EU open border [ __ ] It doesn't make any sense. Um [snorts] we've got to batten down the hatches, protect our cultures. You see something very similar happening in Poland. I don't know the stats as well on Hungary's economy, but Poland's economy is doing gang busters because of that sort of like listen, we're going to take a very um strong economic stance. We're going to lean way the [ __ ] into capitalism.

Like [ __ ] all this socialist [ __ ] And that is reaping dividends for them. Whereas Orban is trying to signal, listen, there's something going on underneath the surface coming out of Brussels. They put like this smiley face on it. That's not what this is about. this about something else entirely. If he's right that this is just an economic grab and this is like they don't care about anything else. Um it gets at the more what I'll call conspiracyminded conspiracyminded conspiracyminded people around like Brussel just wants the great reset.

Uh they want to um have their borders flown wide open. They want you to own nothing and be happy about it. And so we'll see if that really ends up being the play or if as the increase in their defense spending indicates because I actually think it it indicates something slightly different. That to me is them going Russia might really be a threat to us. Russia might have territorial intentions that spill over into Europe and we've got to be ready to defend ourselves. I think their additional spending there is also a signal that we can't really count on the US anymore.

The days of honey and wine are over. we're going to have to deal with this ourselves. So, that I think is good. I think them spending that money there is the right thing. them backing Ukraine and moving NATO to Russia's doorstep under a different name is like as I'm watching what's playing out in Venezuela, I'm like, we all get why Trump is freaking out over China having such a relationship with Venezuela, but we don't get why Putin is pissed that you're moving NATO to his doorstep after promising that you wouldn't.

Like, I don't know that you've got to get fancier than he's telling you why he's doing it. And even now as you're trying to negotiate a ceasefire, you're saying we're going to do all the things that NATO offers, just not call it NATO. And he's like, "Hey, [ __ ] with like the thing that I'm not going to let you do is have troops in Ukraine." Like, it's not going to happen. So, ah man, I I can't tell if Europe has like a sinister underbelly, if they're just playing a big game of fafo, or if they really have reason to be afraid of uh Putin.

I don't know. And because we can't read each other's minds, we find ourselves in the situation where we're like, "Okay, you're saying those things, but do you really mean those things?" So, yeah, Europe acting as a block makes sense. Europe letting in refugees from Africa makes no sense. So, I'm not sure like why they don't group up and say we're effectively going to be the United States 2.0, but in Europe, we're going to have one currency word, but we're going to have this like dynamic tension between the states and the federal government, and we are going to let people essentially vote with their feet in terms of which economy they think is the best.

Uh, and so people get that real time feedback of like, oh [ __ ] I guess what we're doing isn't working. Um, so that would make all the sense in the world, but right now I Yeah, I don't know what they're why they're trying to expand into Ukraine when Putin has made it very very clear that's a hard and fast no. And maybe it's just as complicated as complicated as complicated as America has Canada and Mexico, which right now are not two violent rivals, though. Okay, period. That's one idea.

Let that float in a float thought bubble. But we used to be at war with Mexico. And so we have been able to like make things pleasant enough that we've been sort of in homeostasis with both Canada and Mexico. So I don't know if um we just have we're because of the Catholic heritage maybe that we have enough in common with Mexico that we're able to like hit equilibrium. I don't know. I really have to think about superpower behind them trying to say that America is the devil and we need to take them before sort of I don't think that's really the issue because Europe has had beef with Russia for a very long time.

So we need to really look at So we need to really look at is this a value system of a value system collision maybe um or is it something else? I'd have to think about I'm thinking out loud and I vowed not to do that so I'll stop. Um I feel like Putin's gonna be like yeah cool. No, like I I feel like none the security agrees all these things are great for Ukraine and Zilinski can sleep well last night, but I feel like Putin is nothing changed for him.

He's still on the same vibe. I think all these agreements and meetings and peace things has hasn't necessarily solved the one issue that he has. So, has. So, has. So, not at all. This is moving in the wrong direction. So, I don't see how they think this is going to play out. Uh but you've got the US signaling that they're with it, too. So, I don't know if that's just Trump who's so pissed that Putin hasn't allowed him to end this war in the way that he wanted.

Uh Putin is the ultimate [ __ ] tease. It's hilarious. Like he makes Trump think, "No, no, we're really going to do it this time." And then every time is like, "Nope, Psych." Uh, and that clearly is driving Trump. Absolutely. Trump. Absolutely. Trump. Absolutely. Been walking around with blue balls for an administration and a half. Yeah. Here we are. Um, promises made, promises kept. Thank you, President Trump. I feel icky about this because this is the first time I think I've outrightly agreed with what Trump is doing right now, and I need to process those emotions.

But today, the Trump emotion is proud to announce the United States of America updated childhood vaccination schedule. This schedule is rooted in the gold standard of science and widely agreed upon by scientists and experts all over the world. Effective today, America will no longer require 72 jabs. 72 jabs. 72 jabs. 72 jabs for our beautiful healthy children. We are moving to a far more reasonable schedule where all children will only be recommended to receive vaccinations for 11 of the most serious and dangerous diseases. Parents can still choose to give their children all the vaccinations if they wish and they will still be covered by insurance.

However, this updated schedule finally aligns with the United States with other developed nations around the world. Congratulations to all the people that were involved in it. Uh and shout out to the Maha Moms. Um this kind of last graphic is really like highlighting it. European country 11 injections. United States 72 injections. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, it was a bit hyperbolic to say that it's 72 because it's a bunch of diseases. Some things you got to take four. You got to recur. They're counting flu influenza and all these other stuff.

So, it's not that we're just throwing jabs at kids. But my uh one of my best friends had a kid last year and I was so excited. I was like, "Oh yeah, like you know, you're going through all the things. Welcome to the daddy club, whatever." I'm like the grandfather now cuz my daughter's 14. Um but he was telling me how like, "Oh yeah, we got to go get vaccinations." And he was telling me they had to go back and they told me they had to go a third time.

I was like, "How many?" He's like, "Oh yeah, we got five this time, then we had to get six this time." And I was like in for I didn't realize in this short amount of time, the amount of number has just kind of skyrocketed cuz even with Lynn, I want to say we I'm not a big flu shot person. So like all the flu shots and stuff were kind of taken off. But as I'm like looking through some of these new ones like the hepatitis B that like she took that at 12, she didn't take that as a newborn.

So like that like some of those things started to shift and I didn't even realize that in that gap. So, it's just interesting how much has changed that out rapidly. Yeah. How like the the the line has just been kept moving these last couple years, but I know everybody's up in arms. Every as soon as you say the word vaccine, it's an argument. So, what was your initial reaction when you heard this? this? this? I think it's great. So, if people have the ability to still get the injections if they really believe that we're wrong and get that I mean, I've got whole beefs with insurance, but where nothing has changed.

It's your choice. but they're just changing their recommendations. I love it. Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, I love it. And then let's see what happens. So, if we see that, oh my god, Europeans are dying off faster or people that only got 11, oh my god, like it's just they're sick all the time, they're dying or vice versa. Uh that would be very useful information. And by letting people decide for themselves now, you get a natural experiment when you're forcing people. That's what I hate. That uh that people were in certain professions being forced to take the COVID vaccination to me was insane.

That a government official could look themselves in the eye and be like, "Uh, we're going to force people to give up their bodily autonomy." Hard pass. No [ __ ] way. That is so crazy. As an elected official, you should be like, "Listen, man. I People are dying at high rates. Crazy. We're making it available. We're doing our best uh job of getting the message out, but we are obviously not going to stop them. But now I'm a person who does not believe suicide should be illegal. If you want to kill yourself, you should be able to kill yourself.

Period. End of story. Simple as as as consistent suicide. consistent suicide. consistent suicide. Sure. Sure. Sure. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, uh that is crazy to me. Now, do I think you should be able to have somebody choke you out or pay the or let the millionaire pay you money to kill you in a hunting spree on his island? No. that kind of stuff. Uh, we should put some lines around that. But if somebody is like, "Bro, this for whatever reason is not a place I want to be anymore." Cool.

Do your thing. Uh, Alejandro Martin brought up a really good point that they, one of RFK's uh, banging drums that what he was running on his platform and now what he's doing with HHS is the reason that the vaccine schedule exploded like this is because pharmaceutical companies have no liability. So, if you have any vaccine injuries, anything happens, we're doing a public good. You can't sue us. can't hold rest. So, it's kind of like the opposite of like uh malpractice suits. Do you think that that's something that should stay in place?

Like what's the line between corporate protection so that we can do the thing that is quote unquote helping the greater good versus hey, I bought your product, I put it in my body, I am now sick. You should help like rectify that. So I get why there will be certain things where we say okay this thing take a cancer treatment drug a thing where we just go we don't know but the consequences are so dire that if we don't continue to advance this if we don't create ways to incentivize companies to put money into this we're going to be in a worse position than we would otherwise be.

And I would love to see those kind of medical breakthroughs happen. uh and when companies are getting sued to death, you're certainly going to limit the amount of innovation. I think that we have a latigious problem in uh America. So, anything that's like reducing that at least a little bit I like in theory. Now, the problem is in practice with this one, it was like there was a profit incentive that money was being thrown around in Congress and all of that stuff from the drug companies and all that.

And so that makes me deeply uncomfortable. You give them an out here. You give them an ability to raise money and then a way to use that money in government to keep getting like what they want. That's where I'm like, if there was no money in politics politics politics and so these companies couldn't influence politicians, then it's like, yeah, you would have a checks and balances system. You're not suing these people into oblivion, but you're making sure that tests are being run or at least not being stopped or buried.

Uh that people understand what the risks are. And so, yeah, cool. Like, let things be classified. Like, this is an experimental drug. You take this one at your own risk. this one's been around for 10 years, so there is liability on this because by now they should have figured out what the problem is. Or the drug company itself is saying, "Ah, we're leaving this one in the experimental beyond the like 10-year period. So now it's like, okay, this one's a [ __ ] red flag because the company has had it for 10 years and they're still not willing to like take liability risk." Yeah.

Yeah. That one's now in a category of its own. There are things that you could do like that where you wouldn't create some of the perverse incentives that we have now, which is eh blind yourself or intentionally blind the public to all of the dangers because it makes so much money and you can just splash that money around in um the government to keep getting what you want. That's where this stuff just goes toxic so fast. Uh yeah, well, one of those things. We'll see what happens.

Um, we got some uh vaccine minimalist in the chat. So, shout out to you guys doing the hard work out there. Um, all right. I want to jump over to the poly market. We talked about it at the beginning. Um, the 77% chance that um the Supreme Court would overturn terrorists. Um, what would that mean in your perspective if the Supreme Court were to come back and overturn that? If they overturn it and say that there need to be restitutions paid to the companies that the tariffs were collected from, I think it is going to be detrimental to um the stability of the stock market.

So will there be like some companies go up in value because we um they were so hindered by the tariffs? Very possibly. um does something negative happen because would something negative happen to the stock market with the tariffs going away? It's the restitution that puts a huge question mark on things for me because the government is going to lose revenue. The government is therefore going to have to make up that revenue. They're going to make up that revenue almost certainly by printing money. Uh so that's going to drive the um bonds down.

It will drive the stock market up. So, it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. This is one of those flash points I haven't seen before and I haven't studied. So, I don't know what it's going to h what is going to happen. Um, so Um, so Um, so 78% too. 78% too. 78% too. When I get question marks over it, I get nervous because I just don't know how it's going to play out. So, we'll see. I think this one is there. I've already seen a bunch of people say, "Oh, I know exactly how this is going to play out." I don't buy that.

But, we'll see. And um And um And um because it's new revenue though, I don't feel like it would impact um the government as much. And then on the other side from the private sector, that could be an indicator of prices then dropping. So that would be consumer. If you crater out $600 billion, that's going to change things dramatically. So Trump now has to make up another $600 million shortfall. Not that they stack, but he thought he had just found a way to deal with 600 billion.

Now that goes away. [ __ ] Now what am I going to do to start meeting that shortfall? Because he was counting on this being able to start bringing down some of the debt. He was counting on this to win the midterms. In my opinion, he's not saying this, but my opinion, he was counting on either reducing interest payments or not interest payments, reducing income tax or just cutting stim checks to people. Uh, and so that would certainly go away. The government will almost certainly be sued by a gaggle of companies who are going to say, "This was declared illegal.

You wrongfully confiscated my money. It cost me all these opportunities. So now you're going to see uh a ton of lawsuits working their way through the system. The government is going to lose billions of dollars." So that's like h like there's it's just an unknown bomb dropped in the middle of the economy. So, I do think though that you're going to see some companies be like wildly not advantaged, but they'll be returned back to the state that they were in before all of this happened because a lot of companies were put astrained.

This will be beneficial certainly to China. That's not great. Uh it will reduce a bargaining chip that Trump has. That's terrible. So yeah, this this one is a complex biological system that I'll need to see as it begins to actually work its way through to start actually mapping what's going to happen. to happen. to happen. Gotcha. Um and now a new segment I just invented called what's the poly market bet for today. So today I'm looking at what would happen before GTA 6 is released. Um the number one choice is Drake man releases Iceman.

What's Drake? Sorry, not what's Drake. What's Iceman? What's Iceman? What's Iceman? Uh his new album. Oh, so he's still releasing music. Didn't he release an album that sort of went nowhere post Kendrick be? It was like a a love album with uh Play uh Party Next Door. It was like a collab on Valentine's Day. So, it's kind of like a mixtape. Not so not a big deal. A tester. A tester. It didn't go well though. No, but it was a single that No kid who calling my phone.

Is this Stacey? All right. Nope. Don't know at all. Um yeah, he had a couple Um yeah, he had a couple Okay. So, he is going to attempt a comeback. How do you think that's going to play? to play? to play? It's It's not a comeback, though, cuz Drake didn't really go anywhere. You don't think his reputation has been entirely savaged. entirely savaged. entirely savaged. Kendrick Lamar has tarnished his reputation on the world stage. Savaged. Savaged. Savaged. Comma. However, when you go into the spaces that plays hip-hop music, Drake still spins.

When you talk to Pretty Girls, they still listen to Drake. They just don't tell people. Um, when you leave the Los Angeles metro area, area, area, people are still playing Drake. So, I feel like it was one of those things that like the internet hates Drake, right, but real life people are still selling out. He went he just he went on a world tour last year. Really? During the whole thing? During the whole thing. Interesting. Do you think that um 50 is going to do a documentary on him?

If he touches little boy's booty hoes and has baby oil, maybe. I don't know. Uh I I don't know if the memes are real, but I've certainly seen intimations that Drake is also a pedophile. Drake. Well, that 50 has his eye on a documentary on Drake and one on LeBron. Really? Really? Really? Memes? Memes? I have no idea if these are valid at all, but we'll see. 50 is just a troll. I love him. I don't know why people are so weird about uh why it's always tied to GTA 6.

Has GTA 6 been delayed multiple times? Mhm. Because it was supposed it was supposed to come out end of LA end of last year, right? It was definitely supposed to come out in 2025. Yeah. Fair. But like was it supposed to come out in 24? Isn't it also like one of the longest running like like it's the it's taken a long time to develop sort of drop years. Yeah. Yeah. So six or seven years with two pushes makes it like I don't know that one given the scope of that game.

I'm not at all surprised. Um some of the other uh answers on here GPT6 would be released. Uh a Russian Ukraine ceasefire will happen. Well, GBT6 is basically guaranteed. They'll try to get that out as fast as possible. In fact, In fact, In fact, yeah, I'm not surprised that's so high. A new Playboy Cardi album. The Caseire, that one seems crazy. I am way out of step with Poly Market. They either think that GTA 6 isn't going to be released essentially ever. Uh, do you see a Ukraine Russia ceasefire in the next two years?

But is is it going to take two years to be released? because I I'm still on the November. November. November. That's what I'm saying. I don't think so. And people are saying that we'll get a 65% of people think we'll get that before we get GTA. They must have misread the the Paris summit. Um Trump out as president 52. China invades Taiwan 52%. My favorite one. Jesus Christ returns 49%. What? People spend real money on that. 7 million in volume. Our economy is not real. It's budget that deserves love.

That he had that one on tap. Um, what the actual [ __ ] How is that possible? This is what people actually believe. People are putting their own real money. This has got to be people trolling where it's like a bunch of $5 bets and there's just so many people doing a trolling bet. This This is the highest one out of it highest volume. Yes. And then the second one, Bitcoin hits a million dollars. More people think Jesus Christ will return than that Bitcoin will hit a million dollars.

It's crazy. crazy. crazy. Wow. Wow. Wow. It's crazy. It's crazy. It's crazy. Okay. Well, that tells you what people think about Bitcoin. is the poly market update of the day. Crazy. I don't know whether to be like more stoked that Jesus might be coming back or that people don't believe that Bitcoin. Come on home, JC. They talking They talking about your name. They blowing stuff up. We need you right now. That is crazy. Okay, hold on. I have to ask. Forgive me. Do you think Jesus is coming back physically to Earth?

Do I think Jesus is coming back physically to Earth? Um, Jesus himself, and I'm saying this based on the book of Revelations, isn't like some dude who's going to be like walking down the street. street. street. So, it's a lot of analogies and include that would create the environment for the rapture itself. So, when we people say Jesus is coming back, they're conflating that with the arrival of the Antichrist, the four horsemen, and then the rapture, all the people disappearing, people disappearing, people disappearing, right? right?

right? Because that's the first wave. Then there's going to be a second wave of people saying like, "Hey, are we doing this or not? One last chance." Nope. Okay, now we're separating it. That's the day of judgment. And that's when you're at the pearly gates. Jesus will come back. St. Peter, excuse me, all that stuff. that stuff. that stuff. So, people think the rapture, all of it is going to happen before GTA 6. Well, you've seen what happened in Africa with the prophet who built all the no the boats.

Like some dude named he was he was there were a lot of people that sold like all their stuff, but I didn't think it was $7 worth $7 million worth of bedding worth of people. people. people. Hey man, there was a I think it was in Ghana. I don't know what African country it was, but it was literally a line of people waiting to get on the ark for the flood that never came. And then he went to a concert the next day and was like, "Yeah, he told me that um Jesus God told me he wanted to save more people." So he said the time obviously I want to know when how long before the flood didn't happen.

happen. happen. Did he have that argument lined up? Michael begner Jesus is actually an historical accurate figure. He did live. He did exist. So people are calling it kind of like um Islam. How Muhammad is an actual world figure and the religions prop him up into this um godly deity. But both Muhammad and Jesus Christ were real people. They did get crucified. All that stuff. that stuff. that stuff. Um cool. They did get crucified. Muhammad didn't get crucified. Didn't he get crucified? He got killed or something.

or something. or something. Somebody I'm gonna need someone to chime in. I actually don't know how he died. Yeah, I thought he got crucified or like like like like did he get killed in stoned in that way that people need to look that up? He died in 632 CE in Medina after a brief illness, likely a fever, following his return from the farewell pilgrimage. Yeah, that sounds way more likely. I thought he got crucified. Well, I'm not an Islamist. Sorry, guys. Um, Um, Um, all right.

Uh, since we're in Israel and we're talking about Jesus, he got taken out by a sealed team, Java man. Easy there. That's exactly what happened. They creep up. Uh, they stole him and his wife. Um, we got to talk about uh this developing story about Netanyahu. Um, Netanyahu is Mr. Untouchable, bro. Like, you can't say nothing about like all the anti-semitism and stuff. We'll put this to the side. We're talking about Israel as a country. Disclaimer, disclaimer. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Netanyahu is a gangster dog. Like he told America no.

He told Trump come over here and bomb Iran Iran. He was had a uh arrest order on him from NATO international sanctions put on him. And now the judge that is presiding over his case has just had an motorcycle accident. motorcycle accident. motorcycle accident. Untouchable. Bro, Untouchable. Bro, Untouchable. Bro, let's hear about it. All right. It's true. A judge connected to one of Netanyahu's corruption cases was killed in a motorcycle accident that has the internet absolutely losing their minds. On January 4th, 2026, Judge Benny Sagi, the president of the Bersera District Court, was killed in a motorcycle accident on Route 6 near Ashdod, Israel.

According to official accounts, a vehicle that had been driving off-road suddenly entered the highway and collided with Saggi's motorbike, causing fatal injuries. Paramedics that arrived on the scene described the incident as shocking, pronouncing him dead right there on the scene. Sagi's connection to Benjamin Netanyahu's corruption cases stems from his role in handling aspects of case 3000 which is known as the submarines affair which involves allegations of corruption in Israeli naval procurement deals. Now to be very clear Netanyahu has been questioned in this case but he's not been formally charged.

And importantly, Saggi was not the presiding judge over Netanyahu's primary corruption trial, which encompasses cases 1,00 2,000, and 4,000, which involved gifts, media influence, and regulatory favors. That trial is being heard by a panel in the Jerusalem District Court. Despite this distinction, however, numerous reports and social media discussions are portraying Saggi as the judge overseeing the main Netanyahu corruption proceedings, fueling a lot of misinformation. misinformation. misinformation. But I think as we all look at this tragedy and we think about what really happened, I'm sure I speak for all of us when I say I just want to know what Candace thinks.

Once we hear that, we'll know what really happened. She's the voice of sane reason reason wellressearched journalism when it comes to the question of the Jews. So we'll see. I'm kidding. Uh so yeah, I think people are over dramatizing this one. Look, it could end up being super corrupt. And if you watched House of Cards, you know that just because he's the one on the side case doesn't mean he wasn't either the easy one to take out or somehow a lynch pin to other things. And it could be a friendly judge and all these other things.

So, who knows? We will need to see this play out in the fullness of time. But yeah, if you want to wear a conspiracy hat, there is plenty there for you. And I'm sure that there will be a lot of coverage on the whole escalating drama because there's now now that like we're getting stable again in Israel, there's starting to be protests again and people that really want to get Netanyahu out. Uh so yeah, what was going on for the last couple of years was only ever going to be a delay tactic.

He is going to have to at least face the trials. Whether he comes out teflon dawn and he's fine. Uh I don't know. But yeah, he's not going to get out without being fully investigated. I feel like two people right now are very well probably like three people. Two people are really really excited right now that we spent two hours and or an hour and 47 minutes talking about Venezuela, Ukraine, Greenland, all these things. Uh Galen Maxwell, um Donald Trump and the Epstein files and Benjamin Netanyahu because we haven't even said Gaza and he just did a military strike like last week.

So I think with all these things happening, you really should have your We're never going to see the files emerge. file. We're never going to see the files. It's uh we just we really talking about technically we we did get the files, right? And people have been going through them like do you is it what's the file that you think is missing? I think that when we heard the term Epstein files, what it was was a dossier of this one being's movement with different people, different celebrities, different uh cultural figures that would come to his house, have these parties, and these are the victims, these are the pictures, these are the things we thought we were going to see.

Bill Clinton did this on this day. This not at least a docket of who came to the parties, who was doing this, who was on the planes, who So, we're getting tangential things like I think it was a Chris Tucker who had to apologize for being on one of the dockets of the Epstein uh plane like, "Oh, well that was during rush hour promo. Somebody invited me to the party. I just went to a party. It was a bunch of girls, but it wasn't nothing like that.

It was just like any other Hollywood party, whatever like that." So, we're seeing certain celebrities who have kind of getting caught up into who like, "Oh, hey, yeah, I was there, but it wasn't what y'all think it was." But the main, I guess, ethos of it with the victims, with the actual files of the sex trafficking and the nitty-gritty details, I feel like those are the things that are still getting caught up in the Justice Department. Whether they're being redacted, whether they're not being released, whether they're acting like it doesn't happen, I don't know.

But it's very much um convenient that Trump was adamant, released the files, the files were dropped Friday, we went on the holiday season, and now we're in Venezuela. Um Venezuela. Um Venezuela. Um Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, the very bad news about the human mind is we just cannot sustain our enthusiasm for something over the long run. So, it's like at some point you're just like, I'm kind of bored with it. And it. And it. And but I mean, for real. So, news programs, this one included, are going to cover the things that people are most interested in and want to talk about.

That's going to be true everywhere. People on Capitol Hill are going to fight for the things that they think are going to get them reelected, and if that just starts losing its cultural energy, uh, then they'll go away. I Yeah. I mean, to be honest, I thought there would be more ramifications from what we already did see. That's the part where I'm like, okay. Uh, so it really comes down to Trump said it on his first campaign tour, I can shoot somebody in fifth a and nobody would care.

And I think whether it was to grab him by the hoo-ha, whether it was the release of the files, whether it was him being buddy buddy with Epstein and all those pictures that were released with him and just a bunch of younglooking women, it could have just been a bunch of barely turned 18. Cool. Whatever. No matter what is coming out, Trump is still trumping. He's still making these pilgrimages. MAGA is still rallying behind him. Nick Fuentes and Candace Owens and Theo Vaughn and Dave Smith and everybody's now saying, "Yeah, we're not Trump no more.

He he betrayed us and all that." Trump's still moving. His approval ratities have ticked up after Venezuela. So, it's unfortunately feels like it's just going to fall to another news cycle. It's just like, "Oh, yeah. That was the thing we cared about that one time." one time." one time." I would say right now he is on a oneway path to he's going to learn lose the midterms. he's going to get impeached. So, I wouldn't say things are looking up for Trump right now. Like, he's really still got still got still got You said that kind of with conviction.

You think it's a wrap already. He knows it's a wrap already. Like, if he doesn't turn something around, they will lose the midterms. When you win the presidency, Congress, and Senate, I don't know if anyone has ever held on at midterms. So, he put out a state. Is this it? Yeah. He Yeah, let him say it for himself. Thanks. But you got to win the midterms because if we don't win the midterms, it's just going to be I mean, they'll find a reason to impeach me.

Uh I'll get impeached. We don't impeach them. You know why? Because they're meaner than we are. We should have impeached Joe Biden for a hundred different things. different things. different things. But But But they admittedly should have impeached Biden for being scenile. That is for sure. Um but yeah, that's the path that he's on right now. I don't see there's a dude if he loses the um tariffs and is not able to cut checks like that would be a huge blow. that would be a huge blow.

I'm not sure what he's going to do now. Maybe, just maybe, all the things that he's been deregulating start bearing fruit. Maybe the economy starts feeling good. Maybe. No way that happens in the next six months. Like months. Like months. Like it's it is going to be tough right now. If I think if you held the midterms now, 100%. They lose the House, the Senate, or both. So, and then it's game over. I'm looking at right now how many presidents won the midterms when they won all three br or not branches, but when they won the executive branch, the um Congress and Senate.

Senate. Senate. Uh I can't believe you went to Google for that and not AI. What? How do you get the AI summaries? just straight. just straight. just straight. Yeah, I thought it would give me an AI summary at the time. You didn't. Um, this is not an AI summable thing. No, I I didn't want chat GPT to be like, oh, well, the answer is Yeah, you got to go to Grock on this one. Anything where you need like an empirical fact, Grock is your man. [clears throat] [clears throat] [clears throat] I I still have not used Grock and I got in an argument yesterday and I was not happy.

You was beef when Grock, what happened? Yeah. So, I asked him a fact-based question and hit think harder and it just stalled out and it was like, hey, sometimes I need like a little bit more time. I'm optimized for truth and not like a quick answer. And I was like, damn, a clapback. And so I was like, listen, giving you 30 minutes seems like more than enough time for you to find the answer. Does it really take that long? And he had some other smartass remark.

And so then I opened up in a new window, tried it again, and it still kept just [ __ ] hanging. I don't know why it it wasn't giving me a bad answer. It just wasn't giving me an answer at all. And at one point, I waited like an hour. hour. hour. Wow. Wow. Wow. So it clearly was not doing research. I don't know what the [ __ ] it was doing. It was using all its GPUs to undress people on Twitter. Almost certainly true. Almost certainly true. And so then finally I was able to get an answer and it was good, but it was like it's got a little bit of attitude.

I'm not going to lie. Like Open AI is like how may I serve you? It's like a genie in a bottle. It's like it just wants to please. And Grock is like what what are you talking about? What what the [ __ ] do you expect? I was all clawed. It was like 12 in the morning over the break. I couldn't sleep. And it was like, "How can I help you in this late evening?" I was like, "Don't be clocking me with the time." Like, just say, "Well, how what can I do for you?

Don't be trying to talk about me." Like, damn, Drew, you're up late. Yeah. Like, go to sleep. Stop. All right. Um, key exceptions. Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934, Bill Clinton in 1998, and George Bush in 2002. George Bush is the aster because of 911. of 911. of 911. Uhhuh. Uhhuh. Uhhuh. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Got it. Okay. So, it really does not happen very often. Yeah. So it's it's not looking good for um Trump in totality. But I mean right now it's not with big beautiful bill um going I like just kind of calling it off.

He had the big beautiful bill. He had tariffs and now Venezuela okay peace deals Thailand and all that but people already forgot about all those things. Also did it increase our prosperity? No. No. No. No. And stopping a bad thing from happening is not the same as adding good thing to me. me. me. Yeah. Um, I can't think of anything else that that that also president of peace uh drops gigantor bombs on Iran. Uh, president of peace changes the defense department to the department of war.

President of peace goes in and kidnaps uh a dictator after a lightning strike in uh Venezuela. President of peace like this does not strike me as in keeping with that moniker. So, he's not even got that going for him. Uh, so yeah, the botching of the um Epstein files, which has caused a huge rift for people on the right. right. right. Yeah, I I don't think he's cruising for a good time right now. Now, if people get huge tax returns, if he reduces income tax, if he reduces the deficit, if uh people will feel good if the rates are coming down, and the rates will be coming down.

So that will certainly work in his favor, but it's going to come down to do people feel richer? So he's he I forget how many things he's deregulated, but it's a lot. And if those deregulations show up as people start the average like worker is making more money, then he's got a shot. But if they're not making more money in real terms, nope, dunzo. There's been some talk that the Democratic leader should be somebody that has gusto. It was a Medi Hassan clip. I can't find it.

But basically what he said was the next Democratic leader has to be hard-nosed. Has to be I'm going to go after the Republicans. I'm going to sue people. I'm holding them accountable. They destroyed our country. They have to be kind of that tough uh I guess populist leader would probably be one. Yep. Yep. Yep. On your perspective though, you always have been championing that the next leader has to be the guy that says we need to stop lawfare. We need to stop going after the other party.

We need to stop. stop. stop. They won't. But yes. Okay. Okay. So, you're saying that that is what they should be doing, but the next leader, next leader, next leader, that personality type is not possible to elect right now. It's not possible. So, you've got to have somebody that says, "Everything about today is broken. Here's the fix. By the way, it's easy and it's going to put a ton of money in your pocket or you're going to get a lot of things for free." Whoever comes up is going to be that we're going to take down Trump, lock him up.

All these corrupt cronies, Steven Miller, all those guys, [ __ ] them. All going to jail. Uh, and by the way, free housing, uh, cheaper grocery stores. Mom Donnie is running the playbook. Now, people swear up and down that that's not going to play on a national level. Maybe we'll see, but I don't see what else the Democrat party has in their back pocket. So, you can hope that Trump is unfavorable enough that rerunning the 2024 anything but Trump playbook works, but it certainly didn't work in 2024.

So, um, maybe he makes a misstep, maybe he pisses off Europe or something like that. Something big happens, maybe. But like right now, I don't think you're going to get very far with just We're not Trump. Um, and that's been their whole platform this whole this whole this whole until Mom Donnie. And Mom Donnie has a totally different playbook. Mom Donnie has the billionaires are stealing from you. Mom Donnie is a young, good-looking um nonwhite um nonwhite um nonwhite but like almost white passing uh version of Bernie Sanders.

It's like the [ __ ] trifecta. So, you need something like that. that. that. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All right, we got to Yes. Yes. Yes. Uh and with 30 seconds, super. I've read I've read on average in the last seven years, 60,000 Americans die from fentanyl a year. Combine two years together, that's more deaths than any other foreign war death toll other than World War II. How far do we go to protect? protect? protect? Yeah, this is a really interesting question. So, if you think that fentanyl is being sent over maliciously, laced into other drugs maliciously, and that they are doing it specifically to kill Americans, uh well then you go very hard to protect that for sure.

If on the other hand, this is people that are it's drug dealers that are just going, "Ah, I need something that has an addictive quality that I can lace in and they just accidentally every now and then put in too much and that kills people." It's a very different story. And so I I haven't looked closely enough at the problem to know which one of those is true. Doesn't even matter which one is true. It's what narrative do people believe will actually have political action. But morally, if you have China, let's just say uh to play the thought experiment out, if China is knowingly killing as many people as they think they can kill using fentinel, uh and that if they kill more that will really do something about it, um and so they're disguising fentinil in lethal doses as other things as some have claimed.

um then yeah that is something that is um understandably treated as an act of certainly cold war um there's certainly a case to be made that it's bordering on hot war uh and you would go a long way to stop it and I would say that the way that Trump is behaving is more in line with that but again I don't think that's his primary reason for doing the things that he's doing in fact I think in the grand scheme it's more far more minor unless there are big donors in in his ear that I'm unaware of that are like, "Hey, this is my pet issue and I need you to address this." Um, but going that far out of his way to do that, if it's literally just drugs, it's not the right thing for the country to be honest.

Um, but certainly from a narrative, moral standpoint, defend yourself standpoint, um, you go very, very, very far. But I don't think you go as far as if what Trump is doing in Venezuela were just about that, I would say that's manic. So, but again, I don't think it is that and so it becomes far more understandable. Okay. Period. Any others? others? others? Nope. Nope. Nope. Awesome. You guys are amazing. Thank you for joining us. We will be back again on Friday. And by the way, we have coming up.

I believe it is tomorrow if I'm not mistaken. We have a free AI master class. Yes, it is tomorrow, Thursday, January 8th at 100 p.m. So, I'm going to show you guys how to build a five member AI team to help you launch your business. So, if you've been thinking about launching a business, if you want to learn more about AI, this is entirely free and it is tomorrow, Thursday, January 8th, at 1 p.m. Pacific time. I hope you guys will join us. So, make sure that you click that link, which Mason should be dropping into the chat if he hasn't already.

Uh, do that and I will see you there. All right, everybody. If I don't see you Thursday at the AI master class, I will see you Friday at 7 a.m. once again for another live. We'll see you there. Peace.