The Iran War Expert: I Simulated The Iran War for 20 Years. Here’s What Happens Next

You've been running simulations on a war You've been running simulations on a war with Iran. with Iran. with Iran. >> Yep. Every strategy for 20 years and >> Yep. Every strategy for 20 years and >> Yep. Every strategy for 20 years and it's playing out right now. So I can it's playing out right now. So I can it's playing out right now. So I can tell you that we are losing control of tell you that we are losing control of tell you that we are losing control of the situation. Like we don't know where the situation. Like we don't know where the situation. Like we don't know where that nuclear material is, but they have that nuclear material is, but they have that nuclear material is, but they have the material for 16 nuclear bombs and the material for 16 nuclear bombs and the material for 16 nuclear bombs and we've given them every incentive to we've given them every incentive to we've given them every incentive to develop them. develop them. develop them. >> Professor Robert Pap might be the single >> Professor Robert Pap might be the single >> Professor Robert Pap might be the single most important credible person we all most important credible person we all most important credible person we all need to listen to right now. The Supreme need to listen to right now. The Supreme need to listen to right now. The Supreme Leader that we took out was against Leader that we took out was against Leader that we took out was against nuclear weapons. The new Supreme Leader, nuclear weapons. The new Supreme Leader, nuclear weapons. The new Supreme Leader, and he's way more aggressive. and he's way more aggressive. and he's way more aggressive. >> He's advised two decades of presidents >> He's advised two decades of presidents >> He's advised two decades of presidents in the White House. President Trump is in the White House. President Trump is in the White House. President Trump is really stuck, but he thrives in chaos really stuck, but he thrives in chaos really stuck, but he thrives in chaos and spent 30 years building the and spent 30 years building the and spent 30 years building the curriculum that trains the Air Force for curriculum that trains the Air Force for curriculum that trains the Air Force for the exact type of war that's taking the exact type of war that's taking the exact type of war that's taking place now in Iran. And one of the most place now in Iran. And one of the most place now in Iran. And one of the most mind-blowing things I've learned is that mind-blowing things I've learned is that mind-blowing things I've learned is that there are three stages to this conflict. there are three stages to this conflict. there are three stages to this conflict. Unfortunately, Professor Robert Pape, Unfortunately, Professor Robert Pape, Unfortunately, Professor Robert Pape, who has two decades of being correct who has two decades of being correct who has two decades of being correct with his predictions, gives a 75% with his predictions, gives a 75% with his predictions, gives a 75% chance that Trump is about to escalate chance that Trump is about to escalate chance that Trump is about to escalate to stage three. In this episode, we're to stage three. In this episode, we're to stage three. In this episode, we're going to explain exactly what this going to explain exactly what this going to explain exactly what this means. Guys, I've got a quick favor to ask you. Guys, I've got a quick favor to ask you. We're approaching a significant We're approaching a significant We're approaching a significant subscriber milestone on this show, and subscriber milestone on this show, and subscriber milestone on this show, and roughly 69% of you that listen and love roughly 69% of you that listen and love roughly 69% of you that listen and love the show haven't yet subscribed for the show haven't yet subscribed for the show haven't yet subscribed for whatever reason. If there was ever a whatever reason. If there was ever a whatever reason. If there was ever a time for you to do us a favor, if we've time for you to do us a favor, if we've time for you to do us a favor, if we've ever done anything for you, given you ever done anything for you, given you ever done anything for you, given you value in any way, it is simply hitting value in any way, it is simply hitting value in any way, it is simply hitting that subscribe button. 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And um if you do hit the subscribe button, I um if you do hit the subscribe button, I um if you do hit the subscribe button, I won't let you down and we'll continue to won't let you down and we'll continue to won't let you down and we'll continue to find small ways to make this whole find small ways to make this whole find small ways to make this whole production better. Thank you so much for production better. Thank you so much for production better. Thank you so much for being part of this journey. Means the being part of this journey. Means the being part of this journey. Means the world. And uh yeah, let's do this. Professor Robert P. Professor Robert P. What the hell is going on in the world? What the hell is going on in the world? What the hell is going on in the world? Now, I should ask I should ask first, Now, I should ask I should ask first, Now, I should ask I should ask first, who are you and what have you spent the who are you and what have you spent the who are you and what have you spent the last several decades of your life last several decades of your life last several decades of your life studying and doing and how does that studying and doing and how does that studying and doing and how does that relate to what's happening in the world relate to what's happening in the world relate to what's happening in the world right now? right now? right now? >> We are going through a crisis uh more >> We are going through a crisis uh more >> We are going through a crisis uh more very intense right now, but it's a very intense right now, but it's a very intense right now, but it's a crisis that we have been through before. crisis that we have been through before. crisis that we have been through before. um 20 years ago with the Iraq war. Uh um 20 years ago with the Iraq war. Uh um 20 years ago with the Iraq war. Uh even before that um we saw the bombing even before that um we saw the bombing even before that um we saw the bombing of Gaddafi, we saw the reactions there. of Gaddafi, we saw the reactions there. of Gaddafi, we saw the reactions there. Now I have been studying military Now I have been studying military Now I have been studying military strategy, air power, international strategy, air power, international strategy, air power, international terrorism, now terrorism inside the terrorism, now terrorism inside the terrorism, now terrorism inside the United States and also political United States and also political United States and also political violence in the United States. It's not violence in the United States. It's not violence in the United States. It's not related to particular groups. So I've related to particular groups. So I've related to particular groups. So I've been studying political violence for 40 been studying political violence for 40 been studying political violence for 40 years. What is the headline that people years. What is the headline that people years. What is the headline that people need to be aware of when you've looked need to be aware of when you've looked need to be aware of when you've looked at 30 years of these types of wars? at 30 years of these types of wars? at 30 years of these types of wars? >> That bombs don't just hit targets, they >> That bombs don't just hit targets, they >> That bombs don't just hit targets, they change politics. change politics. change politics. >> What does that mean? >> What does that mean? >> What does that mean? >> That means that before the bombs fall >> That means that before the bombs fall >> That means that before the bombs fall and even as the bombs are falling now, and even as the bombs are falling now, and even as the bombs are falling now, we tend to focus on the tactical success we tend to focus on the tactical success we tend to focus on the tactical success of bombing. We tend to ask, did the of bombing. We tend to ask, did the of bombing. We tend to ask, did the bombs hit the targets? And it's with the bombs hit the targets? And it's with the bombs hit the targets? And it's with the smart bomb age, it's almost mesmerizing. smart bomb age, it's almost mesmerizing. smart bomb age, it's almost mesmerizing. They hit the target and destroy the They hit the target and destroy the They hit the target and destroy the target crater build crater dirt crater target crater build crater dirt crater target crater build crater dirt crater concrete destroy buildings 90% of the concrete destroy buildings 90% of the concrete destroy buildings 90% of the time. The problem is wars are not just time. The problem is wars are not just time. The problem is wars are not just about the hardware. They're not just about the hardware. They're not just about the hardware. They're not just about the military operation of putting about the military operation of putting about the military operation of putting a bomb on a target. They're about a bomb on a target. They're about a bomb on a target. They're about politics. And when the bombs start to politics. And when the bombs start to politics. And when the bombs start to fall, the politics in both the target, fall, the politics in both the target, fall, the politics in both the target, the enemy change and the politics in the the enemy change and the politics in the the enemy change and the politics in the attacker, the initiator change. And that attacker, the initiator change. And that attacker, the initiator change. And that threshold is the beginning of what I'm threshold is the beginning of what I'm threshold is the beginning of what I'm calling the escalation trap because you calling the escalation trap because you calling the escalation trap because you get at stage one tactical success. Often get at stage one tactical success. Often get at stage one tactical success. Often what's missing here is the next what's missing here is the next what's missing here is the next consideration which is politics. who consideration which is politics. who consideration which is politics. who have you advised and at what level have have you advised and at what level have have you advised and at what level have you advised them on strategy, war, etc., you advised them on strategy, war, etc., you advised them on strategy, war, etc., etc. etc. etc. >> So, uh, in the when I finished my PhD, >> So, uh, in the when I finished my PhD, >> So, uh, in the when I finished my PhD, uh, right away we started to fight the uh, right away we started to fight the uh, right away we started to fight the first Gulf War, which was an allair first Gulf War, which was an allair first Gulf War, which was an allair power war and I found my work from the power war and I found my work from the power war and I found my work from the 1980s suddenly more relevant than ever. 1980s suddenly more relevant than ever. 1980s suddenly more relevant than ever. I was in the Washington Post, USA Today, I was in the Washington Post, USA Today, I was in the Washington Post, USA Today, frontline uh, designing the stories frontline uh, designing the stories frontline uh, designing the stories because, uh, we didn't have the talking because, uh, we didn't have the talking because, uh, we didn't have the talking military heads at the time. And then I military heads at the time. And then I military heads at the time. And then I get a call from the US Air Force and get a call from the US Air Force and get a call from the US Air Force and they're asking me to come in and help they're asking me to come in and help they're asking me to come in and help not just teach but to build the not just teach but to build the not just teach but to build the curriculum. Then what happens as time curriculum. Then what happens as time curriculum. Then what happens as time goes on, I end up I end up advising goes on, I end up I end up advising goes on, I end up I end up advising every White House from 2001 to 2024 uh every White House from 2001 to 2024 uh every White House from 2001 to 2024 uh including the first Trump White House. including the first Trump White House. including the first Trump White House. >> I also heard that you've been running >> I also heard that you've been running >> I also heard that you've been running simulations on a war with Iran. simulations on a war with Iran. simulations on a war with Iran. >> Yep. The last class of every strategy >> Yep. The last class of every strategy >> Yep. The last class of every strategy for 20 years. In fact, we did it just for 20 years. In fact, we did it just for 20 years. In fact, we did it just last uh uh last um uh May uh just before last uh uh last um uh May uh just before last uh uh last um uh May uh just before we started the bombing and 90 minutes. we started the bombing and 90 minutes. we started the bombing and 90 minutes. So we the the class goes a whole quarter So we the the class goes a whole quarter So we the the class goes a whole quarter uh strategy in all kinds of different uh strategy in all kinds of different uh strategy in all kinds of different ways and we ended with the bombing of ways and we ended with the bombing of ways and we ended with the bombing of Iran and what did that mean? That meant Iran and what did that mean? That meant Iran and what did that mean? That meant we uh look took out the whole target. We we uh look took out the whole target. We we uh look took out the whole target. We have the target set laid out. We have have the target set laid out. We have have the target set laid out. We have the attack plans. We really go through the attack plans. We really go through the attack plans. We really go through the bombing of Natans, Ford, uh Esfon the bombing of Natans, Ford, uh Esfon the bombing of Natans, Ford, uh Esfon there. there's a number of these there. there's a number of these there. there's a number of these facilities and so forth. Um, and then we facilities and so forth. Um, and then we facilities and so forth. Um, and then we play out and then we look at what's play out and then we look at what's play out and then we look at what's going to happen and what you see right going to happen and what you see right going to happen and what you see right away is 90 plus% those B2s are going to away is 90 plus% those B2s are going to away is 90 plus% those B2s are going to destroy those targets. destroy those targets. destroy those targets. >> B2s being the aircraft >> B2s being the aircraft >> B2s being the aircraft >> these stealthy aircraft that can >> these stealthy aircraft that can >> these stealthy aircraft that can penetrate the airspace very few risk of penetrate the airspace very few risk of penetrate the airspace very few risk of small risk of loss and then you see but small risk of loss and then you see but small risk of loss and then you see but we don't know where the nuclear material we don't know where the nuclear material we don't know where the nuclear material is. The whole point of this is not to is. The whole point of this is not to is. The whole point of this is not to destroy a building. It's to get at the destroy a building. It's to get at the destroy a building. It's to get at the 5% 20% 60% enriched uranium. That's the 5% 20% 60% enriched uranium. That's the 5% 20% 60% enriched uranium. That's the material for bombs. And last May, it was material for bombs. And last May, it was material for bombs. And last May, it was very clear they had the material for 16 very clear they had the material for 16 very clear they had the material for 16 bombs. Now, not to bombs. Now, not to bombs. Now, not to >> 16 nuclear bombs. >> 16 nuclear bombs. >> 16 nuclear bombs. >> One six >> One six >> One six >> nuclear bombs. >> nuclear bombs. >> nuclear bombs. >> Yes, nuclear bombs. Not to produce them >> Yes, nuclear bombs. Not to produce them >> Yes, nuclear bombs. Not to produce them all in a single week, but over a period all in a single week, but over a period all in a single week, but over a period of months. And then at after we did that of months. And then at after we did that of months. And then at after we did that simulation, we didn't know where a simulation, we didn't know where a simulation, we didn't know where a single ounce was. And we weren't going single ounce was. And we weren't going single ounce was. And we weren't going to know for months after. So at the end to know for months after. So at the end to know for months after. So at the end of every I make some predictions. I say of every I make some predictions. I say of every I make some predictions. I say what's going to happen? What's going to what's going to happen? What's going to what's going to happen? What's going to happen is after about a year, we are happen is after about a year, we are happen is after about a year, we are going to panic because that material going to panic because that material going to panic because that material could be dispersed anywhere in Iran, could be dispersed anywhere in Iran, could be dispersed anywhere in Iran, anywhere in that country. And that anywhere in that country. And that anywhere in that country. And that country, look how big that is compared country, look how big that is compared country, look how big that is compared to the United States. to the United States. to the United States. could be dispersed anywhere now. And how could be dispersed anywhere now. And how could be dispersed anywhere now. And how many of those are are actually many of those are are actually many of those are are actually developing toward a bomb? We will not developing toward a bomb? We will not developing toward a bomb? We will not know. So what will we do? Regime change. know. So what will we do? Regime change. know. So what will we do? Regime change. >> From all of your years in I mean 31 >> From all of your years in I mean 31 >> From all of your years in I mean 31 years old you start teaching about air years old you start teaching about air years old you start teaching about air power and and war in this regard. And power and and war in this regard. And power and and war in this regard. And you are 65 now. you are 65 now. you are 65 now. >> Yeah. What is the from everything you >> Yeah. What is the from everything you >> Yeah. What is the from everything you know 30 30 plus years studying this know 30 30 plus years studying this know 30 30 plus years studying this stuff Iran running simulations on Iran stuff Iran running simulations on Iran stuff Iran running simulations on Iran advising the White House being a master advising the White House being a master advising the White House being a master and probably arguably the most informed and probably arguably the most informed and probably arguably the most informed person in the United States right now person in the United States right now person in the United States right now about air attacks like the one the US about air attacks like the one the US about air attacks like the one the US performing on Iran? What is the headline performing on Iran? What is the headline performing on Iran? What is the headline that you're trying to send to the world that you're trying to send to the world that you're trying to send to the world at this moment in time? Like what is it at this moment in time? Like what is it at this moment in time? Like what is it we're missing? Because we're seeing we're missing? Because we're seeing we're missing? Because we're seeing Trump come out and Trump say it's going Trump come out and Trump say it's going Trump come out and Trump say it's going well. Everything's amazing. We've taken well. Everything's amazing. We've taken well. Everything's amazing. We've taken out all their guys. What is what what out all their guys. What is what what out all their guys. What is what what are we missing? We're missing that. are we missing? We're missing that. are we missing? We're missing that. We're stuck in a trap of our own making. We're stuck in a trap of our own making. We're stuck in a trap of our own making. I'll explain what that trap is. But the I'll explain what that trap is. But the I'll explain what that trap is. But the key consequence of the trap is we're key consequence of the trap is we're key consequence of the trap is we're losing control. We are losing control of losing control. We are losing control of losing control. We are losing control of the situation. And what you were seeing the situation. And what you were seeing the situation. And what you were seeing with President Trump is he's trying to with President Trump is he's trying to with President Trump is he's trying to regain control. Now the problem is that regain control. Now the problem is that regain control. Now the problem is that starting not just a week ago Saturday starting not just a week ago Saturday starting not just a week ago Saturday but starting back in June when we took but starting back in June when we took but starting back in June when we took out Natan's fore we started to lose out Natan's fore we started to lose out Natan's fore we started to lose control and what are we losing control control and what are we losing control control and what are we losing control of knowing where that nuclear material of knowing where that nuclear material of knowing where that nuclear material is and we now have civilian satellites is and we now have civilian satellites is and we now have civilian satellites and you can see them moving things. What and you can see them moving things. What and you can see them moving things. What would they be moving around the nuclear would they be moving around the nuclear would they be moving around the nuclear areas? I wonder you think they're moving areas? I wonder you think they're moving areas? I wonder you think they're moving the the the the you know what are they the the the the you know what are they the the the the you know what are they moving here? It's most likely going to moving here? It's most likely going to moving here? It's most likely going to be that nuclear material cuz they're be that nuclear material cuz they're be that nuclear material cuz they're planned planned planned for this war just as we have except for this war just as we have except for this war just as we have except they've been preparing for how to be they've been preparing for how to be they've been preparing for how to be resilient, how to now lash back in resilient, how to now lash back in resilient, how to now lash back in increasingly aggressive ways. They are increasingly aggressive ways. They are increasingly aggressive ways. They are winning the escalation part of the war winning the escalation part of the war winning the escalation part of the war and that's not an accident. this you can and that's not an accident. this you can and that's not an accident. this you can see coming in stages. see coming in stages. see coming in stages. >> But for anyone that doesn't know, we've >> But for anyone that doesn't know, we've >> But for anyone that doesn't know, we've got leaders that have different levels got leaders that have different levels got leaders that have different levels of sort of uh information and knowledge of sort of uh information and knowledge of sort of uh information and knowledge here. I'm going to try and summarize here. I'm going to try and summarize here. I'm going to try and summarize this and butcher it in the most uh this and butcher it in the most uh this and butcher it in the most uh indelicate way I possibly can. So indelicate way I possibly can. So indelicate way I possibly can. So earlier last year, last year the United earlier last year, last year the United earlier last year, last year the United States suspected that Iran were very States suspected that Iran were very States suspected that Iran were very close to enriching uranium. They're at close to enriching uranium. They're at close to enriching uranium. They're at 60%. 60%. 60%. >> They're at 60 already. >> They're at 60 already. >> They're at 60 already. >> If they get to 90%, they have a bomb. Uh >> If they get to 90%, they have a bomb. Uh >> If they get to 90%, they have a bomb. Uh yes, but possibly even with the 60% yes, but possibly even with the 60% yes, but possibly even with the 60% Stephen. It depends on just how good Stephen. It depends on just how good Stephen. It depends on just how good their scientists are and we're not their scientists are and we're not their scientists are and we're not really sure. So there's somewhere we're really sure. So there's somewhere we're really sure. So there's somewhere we're at 60%, we're already very worried. You at 60%, we're already very worried. You at 60%, we're already very worried. You go to 90, it's a gimme. go to 90, it's a gimme. go to 90, it's a gimme. >> And then the United States dropped these >> And then the United States dropped these >> And then the United States dropped these big bunker buster bombs. They flew those big bunker buster bombs. They flew those big bunker buster bombs. They flew those B2 um airplanes in, dropped these bombs, B2 um airplanes in, dropped these bombs, B2 um airplanes in, dropped these bombs, >> smashing up the site. >> smashing up the site. >> smashing up the site. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> And then it felt like it was over. And >> And then it felt like it was over. And >> And then it felt like it was over. And then we the United States went into then we the United States went into then we the United States went into negotiations with Iran to try and get negotiations with Iran to try and get negotiations with Iran to try and get some kind of deal done some kind of deal done some kind of deal done >> to get the material we didn't get. You >> to get the material we didn't get. You >> to get the material we didn't get. You see, why are we even talking to them? If see, why are we even talking to them? If see, why are we even talking to them? If this is really obliterated the program, this is really obliterated the program, this is really obliterated the program, why are we bothering to talk to them? why are we bothering to talk to them? why are we bothering to talk to them? What exactly are we talking about here? What exactly are we talking about here? What exactly are we talking about here? Do you notice the inconsistency here? So Do you notice the inconsistency here? So Do you notice the inconsistency here? So when you say we thought it was over, when you say we thought it was over, when you say we thought it was over, that's the public. Okay. Now the public that's the public. Okay. Now the public that's the public. Okay. Now the public need to understand they're very busy need to understand they're very busy need to understand they're very busy people. They're playing for the price of people. They're playing for the price of people. They're playing for the price of eggs. Okay? So, this is they're not eggs. Okay? So, this is they're not eggs. Okay? So, this is they're not supposed to be able to be up on us. supposed to be able to be up on us. supposed to be able to be up on us. >> It's a good point. I've never thought >> It's a good point. I've never thought >> It's a good point. I've never thought about. about. about. >> Yeah. Why would we be talking to them? >> Yeah. Why would we be talking to them? >> Yeah. Why would we be talking to them? >> Why Why are we talking to them? You see, >> Why Why are we talking to them? You see, >> Why Why are we talking to them? You see, so right from the get-go, and and by the so right from the get-go, and and by the so right from the get-go, and and by the way, all of the um it's the Israelis, uh way, all of the um it's the Israelis, uh way, all of the um it's the Israelis, uh we have a thing called the Defense we have a thing called the Defense we have a thing called the Defense Intelligence Agency. Um their reports Intelligence Agency. Um their reports Intelligence Agency. Um their reports that were done after the bombing, uh that were done after the bombing, uh that were done after the bombing, uh were leaked and they all say the same were leaked and they all say the same were leaked and they all say the same thing, which is we created holes. We thing, which is we created holes. We thing, which is we created holes. We probably shook these underground probably shook these underground probably shook these underground chambers. We're not sure because we had chambers. We're not sure because we had chambers. We're not sure because we had no eyeballs on that, but we have no idea no eyeballs on that, but we have no idea no eyeballs on that, but we have no idea where that enriched uranium is. And we where that enriched uranium is. And we where that enriched uranium is. And we have good reason to worry they got them have good reason to worry they got them have good reason to worry they got them out because we actually have a satellite out because we actually have a satellite out because we actually have a satellite picture that shows two days before we picture that shows two days before we picture that shows two days before we bomb Ford, there's a bunch of trucks bomb Ford, there's a bunch of trucks bomb Ford, there's a bunch of trucks moving stuff out. Gee, what do you think moving stuff out. Gee, what do you think moving stuff out. Gee, what do you think you might move out if America's about to you might move out if America's about to you might move out if America's about to bomb your site again? I I don't think bomb your site again? I I don't think bomb your site again? I I don't think they're moving out the popcorn. So, um, they're moving out the popcorn. So, um, they're moving out the popcorn. So, um, and it's pretty this material can be and it's pretty this material can be and it's pretty this material can be moved in what look like large scuba moved in what look like large scuba moved in what look like large scuba tank. They call them scuba tanks, but I tank. They call them scuba tanks, but I tank. They call them scuba tanks, but I I I I try to show pictures of this, too. I I I try to show pictures of this, too. I I I try to show pictures of this, too. They're they're they're actually like as They're they're they're actually like as They're they're they're actually like as large as this table. So, you need large as this table. So, you need large as this table. So, you need basically trucks. Trucks like that basically trucks. Trucks like that basically trucks. Trucks like that satellite photography shows they took satellite photography shows they took satellite photography shows they took out. So, so we can't say for sure, but out. So, so we can't say for sure, but out. So, so we can't say for sure, but what you see is these are the what you see is these are the what you see is these are the indications that you worry they've indications that you worry they've indications that you worry they've dispersed the material even before we dispersed the material even before we dispersed the material even before we hit the site. So, hit the site. So, hit the site. So, >> and then we attack. >> and then we attack. >> and then we attack. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> The United States attacks in February. >> The United States attacks in February. >> The United States attacks in February. February 2026, which is February 2026, which is February 2026, which is >> No. Feb. Yep. February 2026. February >> No. Feb. Yep. February 2026. February >> No. Feb. Yep. February 2026. February 2028. We start again. This time with 2028. We start again. This time with 2028. We start again. This time with regime change. Notice we don't go even regime change. Notice we don't go even regime change. Notice we don't go even after the physical m the nuclear after the physical m the nuclear after the physical m the nuclear material. We don't know where it is. So material. We don't know where it is. So material. We don't know where it is. So for the average person, the average for the average person, the average for the average person, the average person would think if you take out the person would think if you take out the person would think if you take out the supreme leader, then the war is over. supreme leader, then the war is over. supreme leader, then the war is over. Drop the bomb on the person and the war Drop the bomb on the person and the war Drop the bomb on the person and the war is complete. is complete. is complete. >> Yeah. So let's talk about your your >> Yeah. So let's talk about your your >> Yeah. So let's talk about your your Jenga thing here because what what I Jenga thing here because what what I Jenga thing here because what what I find Stephen. So keep in mind I am find Stephen. So keep in mind I am find Stephen. So keep in mind I am advising teaching some of the most advising teaching some of the most advising teaching some of the most brilliant minds in the in the country. brilliant minds in the in the country. brilliant minds in the in the country. Now a lot of these smart people though, Now a lot of these smart people though, Now a lot of these smart people though, they don't know that they they've been they don't know that they they've been they don't know that they they've been given like one inch deep briefings, given like one inch deep briefings, given like one inch deep briefings, maybe even one sentence briefings. So maybe even one sentence briefings. So maybe even one sentence briefings. So their image their image their image is often like this and it's wrong. This is often like this and it's wrong. This is often like this and it's wrong. This is what they think the regime looks is what they think the regime looks is what they think the regime looks like. And they think that because like. And they think that because like. And they think that because they've been given b they basically have they've been given b they basically have they've been given b they basically have been consuming probably for years one or been consuming probably for years one or been consuming probably for years one or two sentences about the structure. They two sentences about the structure. They two sentences about the structure. They know there's a supreme leader. They know there's a supreme leader. They know there's a supreme leader. They might know there's nuclear facilities, might know there's nuclear facilities, might know there's nuclear facilities, missiles command. And so it looks like, missiles command. And so it looks like, missiles command. And so it looks like, oh my goodness gracious, that if you oh my goodness gracious, that if you oh my goodness gracious, that if you could just simply take out the right could just simply take out the right could just simply take out the right node, you would be able to make this node, you would be able to make this node, you would be able to make this whole thing fall down. Okay, but that's whole thing fall down. Okay, but that's whole thing fall down. Okay, but that's the wrong image, Stephen. This is the the wrong image, Stephen. This is the the wrong image, Stephen. This is the way smart people think. The problem is way smart people think. The problem is way smart people think. The problem is this is a false image of most regimes, this is a false image of most regimes, this is a false image of most regimes, even the bad ones, and certainly the even the bad ones, and certainly the even the bad ones, and certainly the Iranian regime. Let me just focus on the Iranian regime. Let me just focus on the Iranian regime. Let me just focus on the Iranian regime. The Iranian regime is Iranian regime. The Iranian regime is Iranian regime. The Iranian regime is more like a matrix. It's more it's not more like a matrix. It's more it's not more like a matrix. It's more it's not brittle the way this is. So you can keep brittle the way this is. So you can keep brittle the way this is. So you can keep trying to pull things out but with a trying to pull things out but with a trying to pull things out but with a matrix or uh I think the corporate matrix or uh I think the corporate matrix or uh I think the corporate structures now are built to be adaptive structures now are built to be adaptive structures now are built to be adaptive to change because you have so many to change because you have so many to change because you have so many changes that happen. The structure needs changes that happen. The structure needs changes that happen. The structure needs to adapt to change. That is basically to adapt to change. That is basically to adapt to change. That is basically the structure of revolutionary regimes the structure of revolutionary regimes the structure of revolutionary regimes going back to before World War I. going back to before World War I. going back to before World War I. >> Okay. I want to ask a dumb question. >> Okay. I want to ask a dumb question. >> Okay. I want to ask a dumb question. >> Y >> Y >> Y >> when they took out the supreme leader in >> when they took out the supreme leader in >> when they took out the supreme leader in Iran, I who's going to give out the Iran, I who's going to give out the Iran, I who's going to give out the instructions? instructions? instructions? >> The adaptive system adapts and fills in >> The adaptive system adapts and fills in >> The adaptive system adapts and fills in the holes. It fills in the holes usually the holes. It fills in the holes usually the holes. It fills in the holes usually with what's left. And in this case, the with what's left. And in this case, the with what's left. And in this case, the supreme leader that we took out this supreme leader that we took out this supreme leader that we took out this particular hole, this was the guy who particular hole, this was the guy who particular hole, this was the guy who had two fought was they're called these had two fought was they're called these had two fought was they're called these are religious edicts. It's like a people are religious edicts. It's like a people are religious edicts. It's like a people uh edict uh edict uh edict >> against nuclear weapons. It's a >> against nuclear weapons. It's a >> against nuclear weapons. It's a religious he's the leader of essentially religious he's the leader of essentially religious he's the leader of essentially the religion a little bit like the Shia the religion a little bit like the Shia the religion a little bit like the Shia pope pope pope >> and he um is actually issuing religious >> and he um is actually issuing religious >> and he um is actually issuing religious doctrine doctrine doctrine >> and as and that's called a fatwa and as >> and as and that's called a fatwa and as >> and as and that's called a fatwa and as a religious doctrine he issued two that a religious doctrine he issued two that a religious doctrine he issued two that said Iran should not have nuclear said Iran should not have nuclear said Iran should not have nuclear weapons. The guy we killed was one of weapons. The guy we killed was one of weapons. The guy we killed was one of the guard rails against nuclear weapons. the guard rails against nuclear weapons. the guard rails against nuclear weapons. How does that He was He was developing How does that He was He was developing How does that He was He was developing them in his them in his them in his >> No, no, he's developing the enrichment >> No, no, he's developing the enrichment >> No, no, he's developing the enrichment material. They hadn't been fashioned yet material. They hadn't been fashioned yet material. They hadn't been fashioned yet that we know of as nuclear weapons. that we know of as nuclear weapons. that we know of as nuclear weapons. Okay. So, we're worried about again this Okay. So, we're worried about again this Okay. So, we're worried about again this enrichment going from 5% to 20%, to 60%. enrichment going from 5% to 20%, to 60%. enrichment going from 5% to 20%, to 60%. But they hadn't actually taken that next But they hadn't actually taken that next But they hadn't actually taken that next step, which is more of an engineering step, which is more of an engineering step, which is more of an engineering step to develop the nuclear weapon. step to develop the nuclear weapon. step to develop the nuclear weapon. Now we took out the person who at the Now we took out the person who at the Now we took out the person who at the very tippy top was balancing the hawks very tippy top was balancing the hawks very tippy top was balancing the hawks and doves and he had decided for decades and doves and he had decided for decades and doves and he had decided for decades to issue this these fatwas. He did it to issue this these fatwas. He did it to issue this these fatwas. He did it not just once but twice. His son who not just once but twice. His son who not just once but twice. His son who took over the new supreme leader no took over the new supreme leader no took over the new supreme leader no fatwa yet. That fatwa died with this fatwa yet. That fatwa died with this fatwa yet. That fatwa died with this guy. So will the new leader come in? uh guy. So will the new leader come in? uh guy. So will the new leader come in? uh it's not clear he's got the religious it's not clear he's got the religious it's not clear he's got the religious authority to do anything like what his authority to do anything like what his authority to do anything like what his father did. This is this is a very father did. This is this is a very father did. This is this is a very different world and he's known to be way different world and he's known to be way different world and he's known to be way more aggressive than his father. Uh he's more aggressive than his father. Uh he's more aggressive than his father. Uh he's been in charge of the the bosi the uh been in charge of the the bosi the uh been in charge of the the bosi the uh basically the uh the the police that basically the uh the the police that basically the uh the the police that like to go and kill the protesters. He's like to go and kill the protesters. He's like to go and kill the protesters. He's been the guy who's who's been very very been the guy who's who's been very very been the guy who's who's been very very uh strongly uh supporting if not leading uh strongly uh supporting if not leading uh strongly uh supporting if not leading that particular effort. And last night that particular effort. And last night that particular effort. And last night it was announced that he has been it was announced that he has been it was announced that he has been appointed as the new leader of appointed as the new leader of appointed as the new leader of >> the new supreme leader. >> the new supreme leader. >> the new supreme leader. >> Did did Trump expect this? >> Did did Trump expect this? >> Did did Trump expect this? >> I think that he u expected it because he >> I think that he u expected it because he >> I think that he u expected it because he kept trying to talk the Iranians out of kept trying to talk the Iranians out of kept trying to talk the Iranians out of it. This is what he meant by uh last it. This is what he meant by uh last it. This is what he meant by uh last week when President um Trump was saying week when President um Trump was saying week when President um Trump was saying that he wanted um uh not this guy. He that he wanted um uh not this guy. He that he wanted um uh not this guy. He specifically said not the sun. And then specifically said not the sun. And then specifically said not the sun. And then he he had a problem because people kept he he had a problem because people kept he he had a problem because people kept pushing him and they said, "Okay, well, pushing him and they said, "Okay, well, pushing him and they said, "Okay, well, if you don't like the son, who who would if you don't like the son, who who would if you don't like the son, who who would you pick?" And he said, "Well, it is a you pick?" And he said, "Well, it is a you pick?" And he said, "Well, it is a problem because when we killed the problem because when we killed the problem because when we killed the Supreme Leader, we killed around the Supreme Leader, we killed around the Supreme Leader, we killed around the leader 20 or 30 others who we actually leader 20 or 30 others who we actually leader 20 or 30 others who we actually thought were better. So, we actually thought were better. So, we actually thought were better. So, we actually took out the best alternatives when we took out the best alternatives when we took out the best alternatives when we killed the when the Supreme Leader was killed the when the Supreme Leader was killed the when the Supreme Leader was killed." And every So, everybody's killed." And every So, everybody's killed." And every So, everybody's scratching their heads going, "What are scratching their heads going, "What are scratching their heads going, "What are we talking about here?" So, so we we talking about here?" So, so we we talking about here?" So, so we actually helped the by killing the actually helped the by killing the actually helped the by killing the competitors to the sun, competitors to the sun, competitors to the sun, >> we made it more likely the sun. And so >> we made it more likely the sun. And so >> we made it more likely the sun. And so what I'm trying to explain, Stephen, is what I'm trying to explain, Stephen, is what I'm trying to explain, Stephen, is this adapts. Okay? So that you're not this adapts. Okay? So that you're not this adapts. Okay? So that you're not really taking these uh pieces out. really taking these uh pieces out. really taking these uh pieces out. You're rearranging You're rearranging You're rearranging them and you are moving up in this case. them and you are moving up in this case. them and you are moving up in this case. You're moving up You're moving up You're moving up >> the next Supreme Leader. Well, it's >> the next Supreme Leader. Well, it's >> the next Supreme Leader. Well, it's there's the Supreme Leader, but what there's the Supreme Leader, but what there's the Supreme Leader, but what we're not showing here, you're see we're not showing here, you're see we're not showing here, you're see you're seeing the target sets that are you're seeing the target sets that are you're seeing the target sets that are being discussed. You're not seeing the being discussed. You're not seeing the being discussed. You're not seeing the Revolutionary Guard. Revolutionary Guard. Revolutionary Guard. >> What is that? >> What is that? >> What is that? >> That is part of the army. The Iran has a >> That is part of the army. The Iran has a >> That is part of the army. The Iran has a million men in arms. A million. That's million men in arms. A million. That's million men in arms. A million. That's is that's as many as we have in our 300 is that's as many as we have in our 300 is that's as many as we have in our 300 million people. They have 92 million. million people. They have 92 million. million people. They have 92 million. They have a million in arms. And about They have a million in arms. And about They have a million in arms. And about 150 or 200,000 of them are what are 150 or 200,000 of them are what are 150 or 200,000 of them are what are called the revolutionary guards. These called the revolutionary guards. These called the revolutionary guards. These are the most aggressive, the most uh are the most aggressive, the most uh are the most aggressive, the most uh well-trained. Um these are the most well-trained. Um these are the most well-trained. Um these are the most dedicated to the regime. The news the dedicated to the regime. The news the dedicated to the regime. The news the son who just we just uh just took over son who just we just uh just took over son who just we just uh just took over is the prime candidate for that group. is the prime candidate for that group. is the prime candidate for that group. So when we took out a link here, it's So when we took out a link here, it's So when we took out a link here, it's not just being replaced by another not just being replaced by another not just being replaced by another It's being replaced by a very aggressive It's being replaced by a very aggressive It's being replaced by a very aggressive individual who's backed by some of the individual who's backed by some of the individual who's backed by some of the most aggressive part of that millionman most aggressive part of that millionman most aggressive part of that millionman army. So this is what I was trying to army. So this is what I was trying to army. So this is what I was trying to explain in my substacks where when you explain in my substacks where when you explain in my substacks where when you take out the leader, you may kill the take out the leader, you may kill the take out the leader, you may kill the leader, but you get in its place a leader, but you get in its place a leader, but you get in its place a harder regime, a more resilient regime, harder regime, a more resilient regime, harder regime, a more resilient regime, a tougher regime that wants to lash back a tougher regime that wants to lash back a tougher regime that wants to lash back even more aggressively even more aggressively even more aggressively >> because you killed dad. >> because you killed dad. >> because you killed dad. >> You killed dad. And also, if you don't >> You killed dad. And also, if you don't >> You killed dad. And also, if you don't lash back, how does the new leader get lash back, how does the new leader get lash back, how does the new leader get his credibility with everybody else? If his credibility with everybody else? If his credibility with everybody else? If he's a wimp, why doesn't he get a bullet he's a wimp, why doesn't he get a bullet he's a wimp, why doesn't he get a bullet in the back of the head? You see the new in the back of the head? You see the new in the back of the head? You see the new just because he's appointed a new just because he's appointed a new just because he's appointed a new leader, he's still just just like when leader, he's still just just like when leader, he's still just just like when you're the head of a new uh company like you're the head of a new uh company like you're the head of a new uh company like let's say you take over a there's a let's say you take over a there's a let's say you take over a there's a company that's in shambles and they get company that's in shambles and they get company that's in shambles and they get rid of their CEO and they bring you on. rid of their CEO and they bring you on. rid of their CEO and they bring you on. Okay? Well, you got to have a plan. You Okay? Well, you got to have a plan. You Okay? Well, you got to have a plan. You see, and if you don't have a plan to see, and if you don't have a plan to see, and if you don't have a plan to turn that thing around pretty soon, you turn that thing around pretty soon, you turn that thing around pretty soon, you know, Elon Musk had to have the big know, Elon Musk had to have the big know, Elon Musk had to have the big plan. If you don't have that plan, guess plan. If you don't have that plan, guess plan. If you don't have that plan, guess what? You're out. Same here. So you have what? You're out. Same here. So you have what? You're out. Same here. So you have incentive structure here for not just incentive structure here for not just incentive structure here for not just replacing not just wimpy replacements replacing not just wimpy replacements replacing not just wimpy replacements certainly not pro-American replacements. certainly not pro-American replacements. certainly not pro-American replacements. You have incentives for lashing back You have incentives for lashing back You have incentives for lashing back against the attacker. Which is why when against the attacker. Which is why when against the attacker. Which is why when we tried to kill Gaddafi in 1986, he we tried to kill Gaddafi in 1986, he we tried to kill Gaddafi in 1986, he lashes back and uh takes out Panama lashes back and uh takes out Panama lashes back and uh takes out Panama Flight 103, killing 271 civilians, 190 Flight 103, killing 271 civilians, 190 Flight 103, killing 271 civilians, 190 Americans. When we try to take out the Americans. When we try to take out the Americans. When we try to take out the Malloic regime to degrade it in uh March Malloic regime to degrade it in uh March Malloic regime to degrade it in uh March 99, Malloic lashes back, sending 30,000 99, Malloic lashes back, sending 30,000 99, Malloic lashes back, sending 30,000 ground forces into cleanse, that is get ground forces into cleanse, that is get ground forces into cleanse, that is get rid of a million civilians in Kosovo. uh rid of a million civilians in Kosovo. uh rid of a million civilians in Kosovo. uh this over and over. this over and over. this over and over. >> I mean you have written books about >> I mean you have written books about >> I mean you have written books about suicide terrorism. suicide terrorism. suicide terrorism. >> That's right. >> That's right. >> That's right. >> I've got one of them in front of me here >> I've got one of them in front of me here >> I've got one of them in front of me here called dying to win. So I mean you know called dying to win. So I mean you know called dying to win. So I mean you know a lot about this subject and this is one a lot about this subject and this is one a lot about this subject and this is one of the concerns that actually my fiance of the concerns that actually my fiance of the concerns that actually my fiance had said to me. She said I explained to had said to me. She said I explained to had said to me. She said I explained to her I was like you know Iran they really her I was like you know Iran they really her I was like you know Iran they really just have drones at the moment so I just have drones at the moment so I just have drones at the moment so I think that's fine. And then she posed a think that's fine. And then she posed a think that's fine. And then she posed a question to me. She was like yeah but question to me. She was like yeah but question to me. She was like yeah but what about suicide terrorism? what about suicide terrorism? what about suicide terrorism? >> Let me just explain. So here we are. It >> Let me just explain. So here we are. It >> Let me just explain. So here we are. It is uh here is of course Iran and imagine is uh here is of course Iran and imagine is uh here is of course Iran and imagine it's back in June. So I'm going to start it's back in June. So I'm going to start it's back in June. So I'm going to start the story in June. This is the beginning the story in June. This is the beginning the story in June. This is the beginning of the smart bomb the escalation trap of the smart bomb the escalation trap of the smart bomb the escalation trap stage one. We hit uh Foro which is right stage one. We hit uh Foro which is right stage one. We hit uh Foro which is right around there and then we hit Natans uh around there and then we hit Natans uh around there and then we hit Natans uh and some other sites right around here. and some other sites right around here. and some other sites right around here. And what does Iran do here? They lash And what does Iran do here? They lash And what does Iran do here? They lash back. And who are they lashing back back. And who are they lashing back back. And who are they lashing back against? Israel here. They have their against? Israel here. They have their against? Israel here. They have their missiles focused on Israel. They're not missiles focused on Israel. They're not missiles focused on Israel. They're not really hitting our bases here. They're really hitting our bases here. They're really hitting our bases here. They're hitting Israel and they send 3,000 hitting Israel and they send 3,000 hitting Israel and they send 3,000 Israelis to the hospital, the most since Israelis to the hospital, the most since Israelis to the hospital, the most since the 73 war. So, a long time. That is the 73 war. So, a long time. That is the 73 war. So, a long time. That is stage one. Okay. Now, what happened when stage one. Okay. Now, what happened when stage one. Okay. Now, what happened when in February 28? February 28, they're in February 28? February 28, they're in February 28? February 28, they're lashing back a bit against Israel for lashing back a bit against Israel for lashing back a bit against Israel for sure, but now they're at stage two. This sure, but now they're at stage two. This sure, but now they're at stage two. This is why I published this piece today in is why I published this piece today in is why I published this piece today in foreign affairs about how Iran's winning foreign affairs about how Iran's winning foreign affairs about how Iran's winning the escalation war. So it just came out the escalation war. So it just came out the escalation war. So it just came out just a few hours before we came on. And just a few hours before we came on. And just a few hours before we came on. And what's happening here is called I call what's happening here is called I call what's happening here is called I call it horizontal escalation because what it horizontal escalation because what it horizontal escalation because what they're doing now is they're using they're doing now is they're using they're doing now is they're using drones mostly a few missiles but mostly drones mostly a few missiles but mostly drones mostly a few missiles but mostly drones. This was almost all missiles no drones. This was almost all missiles no drones. This was almost all missiles no drones and they're using their drone drones and they're using their drone drones and they're using their drone capacity which they have a lot of and capacity which they have a lot of and capacity which they have a lot of and it's precision. These drones are like it's precision. These drones are like it's precision. These drones are like precisiong guided weapons. They go right precisiong guided weapons. They go right precisiong guided weapons. They go right to the target and what they're trying to to the target and what they're trying to to the target and what they're trying to do is break this coalition. do is break this coalition. do is break this coalition. >> For anyone that can't see at the moment >> For anyone that can't see at the moment >> For anyone that can't see at the moment that they counted with horizontal that they counted with horizontal that they counted with horizontal escalation against Saudi Arabia, the escalation against Saudi Arabia, the escalation against Saudi Arabia, the UAE, UAE, UAE, >> the coalition that had been formed >> the coalition that had been formed >> the coalition that had been formed against them, they're trying to break against them, they're trying to break against them, they're trying to break the coalition, you see. the coalition, you see. the coalition, you see. >> Um, and they may well do that. >> Um, and they may well do that. >> Um, and they may well do that. >> Why Why would they want to break that? >> Why Why would they want to break that? >> Why Why would they want to break that? Why my friends are escaping Dubai at the Why my friends are escaping Dubai at the Why my friends are escaping Dubai at the moment? And I've got a friend staying in moment? And I've got a friend staying in moment? And I've got a friend staying in my house in Cape Town because he doesn't my house in Cape Town because he doesn't my house in Cape Town because he doesn't want to be want to be want to be >> because they want these countries to >> because they want these countries to >> because they want these countries to kick the Americans out of their country. kick the Americans out of their country. kick the Americans out of their country. >> Okay? >> Okay? >> Okay? >> Get rid of the uh embassies. Get rid of >> Get rid of the uh embassies. Get rid of >> Get rid of the uh embassies. Get rid of the bases. If you can then we don't have the bases. If you can then we don't have the bases. If you can then we don't have the platforms to plaster them. You see, the platforms to plaster them. You see, the platforms to plaster them. You see, these are our basically groundbased these are our basically groundbased these are our basically groundbased aircraft carriers. I thought they were aircraft carriers. I thought they were aircraft carriers. I thought they were they were attacking Saudi Arabia, for they were attacking Saudi Arabia, for they were attacking Saudi Arabia, for example, because that will make Saudi example, because that will make Saudi example, because that will make Saudi Arabia call Trump and say, "Listen, Arabia call Trump and say, "Listen, Arabia call Trump and say, "Listen, stop, please. We're losing our tour stop, please. We're losing our tour stop, please. We're losing our tour tourism. We're shutting our airports." tourism. We're shutting our airports." tourism. We're shutting our airports." But well they do want to they are But well they do want to they are But well they do want to they are threatening the tourism hitting the threatening the tourism hitting the threatening the tourism hitting the economic nodes they're hitting uh hotels economic nodes they're hitting uh hotels economic nodes they're hitting uh hotels uh they're hitting the airports what uh they're hitting the airports what uh they're hitting the airports what they are trying to do is by threatening they are trying to do is by threatening they are trying to do is by threatening tourism which it varies from 5% to 10% tourism which it varies from 5% to 10% tourism which it varies from 5% to 10% of the GDP of these countries. It's not of the GDP of these countries. It's not of the GDP of these countries. It's not trivial amounts here. They're basically trivial amounts here. They're basically trivial amounts here. They're basically trying to drive wedges between these trying to drive wedges between these trying to drive wedges between these countries and America. And America right countries and America. And America right countries and America. And America right now, I don't see any movement through now, I don't see any movement through now, I don't see any movement through Congress. I where where is this hundred Congress. I where where is this hundred Congress. I where where is this hundred billion dollars going to the region to billion dollars going to the region to billion dollars going to the region to make up for their lost tourism? I I make up for their lost tourism? I I make up for their lost tourism? I I don't remember seeing that bill come don't remember seeing that bill come don't remember seeing that bill come through Congress last week. So, um, I'm through Congress last week. So, um, I'm through Congress last week. So, um, I'm just putting a little humorously to just putting a little humorously to just putting a little humorously to point out these countries are losing a point out these countries are losing a point out these countries are losing a fair bit right now and that tourism may fair bit right now and that tourism may fair bit right now and that tourism may not come back for a while. not come back for a while. not come back for a while. >> I've got friends that are that have >> I've got friends that are that have >> I've got friends that are that have moved. moved. moved. >> I've got friends that one of my friends >> I've got friends that one of my friends >> I've got friends that one of my friends was thinking about leaving is now in my was thinking about leaving is now in my was thinking about leaving is now in my house in Cape Town and he's been there house in Cape Town and he's been there house in Cape Town and he's been there for 5 years. He's leaving and he's going for 5 years. He's leaving and he's going for 5 years. He's leaving and he's going to move to America. I've got so many to move to America. I've got so many to move to America. I've got so many friends that have called you friends that have called you friends that have called you >> and imagine that we have 500,000 >> and imagine that we have 500,000 >> and imagine that we have 500,000 American citizens here and we have the American citizens here and we have the American citizens here and we have the State Department on CNN. call this State Department on CNN. call this State Department on CNN. call this number, we'll help you escape. number, we'll help you escape. number, we'll help you escape. >> It's even the media in the UK, you see >> It's even the media in the UK, you see >> It's even the media in the UK, you see it. It's like it's they're showing like it. It's like it's they're showing like it. It's like it's they're showing like the BBC are showing like evacuations of the BBC are showing like evacuations of the BBC are showing like evacuations of UK citizens as they're being greeted in UK citizens as they're being greeted in UK citizens as they're being greeted in the airport, putting microphones. the airport, putting microphones. the airport, putting microphones. >> So, this is putting a lot of pressure >> So, this is putting a lot of pressure >> So, this is putting a lot of pressure here and there's something else that's here and there's something else that's here and there's something else that's not widely known, which is there's a big not widely known, which is there's a big not widely known, which is there's a big gap between what the leaders of the gap between what the leaders of the gap between what the leaders of the countries want willing to support US and countries want willing to support US and countries want willing to support US and Israel and their publics. You see, this Israel and their publics. You see, this Israel and their publics. You see, this coalition that's been built against Iran coalition that's been built against Iran coalition that's been built against Iran here is not clearly going down well with here is not clearly going down well with here is not clearly going down well with Publix. These are publiclix. They may Publix. These are publiclix. They may Publix. These are publiclix. They may not like Iran. They may be Sunni and not like Iran. They may be Sunni and not like Iran. They may be Sunni and Iran Shia, but they don't want to be Iran Shia, but they don't want to be Iran Shia, but they don't want to be part of an Israeli expansion plan where part of an Israeli expansion plan where part of an Israeli expansion plan where Israel is going to conquer more and more Israel is going to conquer more and more Israel is going to conquer more and more territory and so forth. And so this is territory and so forth. And so this is territory and so forth. And so this is this is this is where the soft this is this is where the soft this is this is where the soft underbelly here of this this isn't just underbelly here of this this isn't just underbelly here of this this isn't just about the tourism. That's the short about the tourism. That's the short about the tourism. That's the short term. The longer term is bottomup term. The longer term is bottomup term. The longer term is bottomup pressure. Uh Sadat, he was a leader of pressure. Uh Sadat, he was a leader of pressure. Uh Sadat, he was a leader of Egypt in the 1970s. He cut a deal with Egypt in the 1970s. He cut a deal with Egypt in the 1970s. He cut a deal with uh Israel. It's called the Camp David uh Israel. It's called the Camp David uh Israel. It's called the Camp David Accords. Peace uh uh for land. There was Accords. Peace uh uh for land. There was Accords. Peace uh uh for land. There was but it was very favorable. Well, after but it was very favorable. Well, after but it was very favorable. Well, after Saddat did that, the president of Egypt Saddat did that, the president of Egypt Saddat did that, the president of Egypt in 1981 in a military parade, his own in 1981 in a military parade, his own in 1981 in a military parade, his own security guards at the military parade security guards at the military parade security guards at the military parade marched with their guns, came up to his marched with their guns, came up to his marched with their guns, came up to his place, and they shot him dead. place, and they shot him dead. place, and they shot him dead. So, you don't this is the real world So, you don't this is the real world So, you don't this is the real world here. So, this is very, very dangerous here. So, this is very, very dangerous here. So, this is very, very dangerous for these leaders. Now, that's stage for these leaders. Now, that's stage for these leaders. Now, that's stage two. Now, what what happens if we decide two. Now, what what happens if we decide two. Now, what what happens if we decide to have one of these limited ground uh to have one of these limited ground uh to have one of these limited ground uh uh deployments here? Because after all, uh deployments here? Because after all, uh deployments here? Because after all, we still don't know where this material we still don't know where this material we still don't know where this material is. is. is. >> What does that mean? So, for anyone that >> What does that mean? So, for anyone that >> What does that mean? So, for anyone that doesn't know anything about the war, doesn't know anything about the war, doesn't know anything about the war, what does a a ground deployment mean? what does a a ground deployment mean? what does a a ground deployment mean? Cuz I I saw Trump being asked about this Cuz I I saw Trump being asked about this Cuz I I saw Trump being asked about this on the plane yesterday, and he didn't on the plane yesterday, and he didn't on the plane yesterday, and he didn't seem to deny it was going to happen. It seem to deny it was going to happen. It seem to deny it was going to happen. It means you try to control a limited means you try to control a limited means you try to control a limited amount of space, say the space around amount of space, say the space around amount of space, say the space around Fordo or the the nuclear facility that Fordo or the the nuclear facility that Fordo or the the nuclear facility that you bombed in June, and you would send you bombed in June, and you would send you bombed in June, and you would send the say 82nd Airborne in to control the the say 82nd Airborne in to control the the say 82nd Airborne in to control the space. space. space. >> This I don't know what any of this stuff >> This I don't know what any of this stuff >> This I don't know what any of this stuff is. is. is. >> I see. So 82nd Airborne is is a division >> I see. So 82nd Airborne is is a division >> I see. So 82nd Airborne is is a division that we have that's especially equipped that we have that's especially equipped that we have that's especially equipped to uh go into hostile area and land and to uh go into hostile area and land and to uh go into hostile area and land and control say airports control space. control say airports control space. control say airports control space. Think about controlling all the size of Think about controlling all the size of Think about controlling all the size of LAX. LAX. LAX. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> So if you want to control LAX, you bring >> So if you want to control LAX, you bring >> So if you want to control LAX, you bring in the 82nd Airborne. They will have in the 82nd Airborne. They will have in the 82nd Airborne. They will have 5,000 men and women, not just guys now. 5,000 men and women, not just guys now. 5,000 men and women, not just guys now. And they will come in and they will And they will come in and they will And they will come in and they will control that space LAX, but they will control that space LAX, but they will control that space LAX, but they will also be doing this probably not for a also be doing this probably not for a also be doing this probably not for a day, not for even a week. They're going day, not for even a week. They're going day, not for even a week. They're going to have to spend weeks and weeks to to have to spend weeks and weeks to to have to spend weeks and weeks to search for that material because we search for that material because we search for that material because we don't know where it is and it's all don't know where it is and it's all don't know where it is and it's all deeply buried and a lot of the stuff has deeply buried and a lot of the stuff has deeply buried and a lot of the stuff has been the the entrances have been blown been the the entrances have been blown been the the entrances have been blown up. So this means this means long-term up. So this means this means long-term up. So this means this means long-term presence there. You might also take some presence there. You might also take some presence there. You might also take some of the oil fields to cut off some of the of the oil fields to cut off some of the of the oil fields to cut off some of the um money uh here for the uh uh for the um money uh here for the uh uh for the um money uh here for the uh uh for the regime. That is where that book comes regime. That is where that book comes regime. That is where that book comes in. in. in. >> Do you think it's likely that America >> Do you think it's likely that America >> Do you think it's likely that America will put boots on the ground, American will put boots on the ground, American will put boots on the ground, American soldiers in Iran? soldiers in Iran? soldiers in Iran? >> I think it's at least 50/50 if not >> I think it's at least 50/50 if not >> I think it's at least 50/50 if not immediately. So people keep expecting immediately. So people keep expecting immediately. So people keep expecting the escalation to be continuous and then the escalation to be continuous and then the escalation to be continuous and then when there's a pause uh as there was when there's a pause uh as there was when there's a pause uh as there was between June and February, they think, between June and February, they think, between June and February, they think, "Oh, it's over. I'm going to go now "Oh, it's over. I'm going to go now "Oh, it's over. I'm going to go now worry about something else." And then worry about something else." And then worry about something else." And then believe me, there's plenty else to worry believe me, there's plenty else to worry believe me, there's plenty else to worry about. So we got Minneapolis. We got about. So we got Minneapolis. We got about. So we got Minneapolis. We got plenty to worry about here, even with plenty to worry about here, even with plenty to worry about here, even with violence. But that's not how escalation violence. But that's not how escalation violence. But that's not how escalation operates. Escalation operates. Escalation operates. Escalation can happen have a ratchet effect that can happen have a ratchet effect that can happen have a ratchet effect that has that's spaced out by months of what has that's spaced out by months of what has that's spaced out by months of what seems like peace only to come right back seems like peace only to come right back seems like peace only to come right back and you're stuck in that escalation and you're stuck in that escalation and you're stuck in that escalation momentum momentum momentum >> which is what we've seen >> which is what we've seen >> which is what we've seen >> which is exactly what we've seen and for >> which is exactly what we've seen and for >> which is exactly what we've seen and for the reason I'm telling you we don't know the reason I'm telling you we don't know the reason I'm telling you we don't know where that nuclear material is that has where that nuclear material is that has where that nuclear material is that has been the $64,000 been the $64,000 been the $64,000 weakness in this entire entire idea of weakness in this entire entire idea of weakness in this entire entire idea of using air power not just in the last 10 using air power not just in the last 10 using air power not just in the last 10 days going back to June. It's not just days going back to June. It's not just days going back to June. It's not just even about the regime change. It's about even about the regime change. It's about even about the regime change. It's about how are you going to get that nuclear how are you going to get that nuclear how are you going to get that nuclear material out. We had a deal this deal material out. We had a deal this deal material out. We had a deal this deal with Obama. Trump did not like it. But with Obama. Trump did not like it. But with Obama. Trump did not like it. But with that deal that held and Iran took with that deal that held and Iran took with that deal that held and Iran took out almost all virtually just only a out almost all virtually just only a out almost all virtually just only a tiny bit was left. They not enough for a tiny bit was left. They not enough for a tiny bit was left. They not enough for a bomb. all out of the country and we bomb. all out of the country and we bomb. all out of the country and we watched it. We monitored it. We had 24/7 watched it. We monitored it. We had 24/7 watched it. We monitored it. We had 24/7 cameras to monitor this. We had human cameras to monitor this. We had human cameras to monitor this. We had human on-site inspections to monitor this. on-site inspections to monitor this. on-site inspections to monitor this. 2018, Trump just ripped it up, walked 2018, Trump just ripped it up, walked 2018, Trump just ripped it up, walked away unilaterally, and from that point away unilaterally, and from that point away unilaterally, and from that point on, it's been pedal to the metal by Iran on, it's been pedal to the metal by Iran on, it's been pedal to the metal by Iran in upgrading that enriched uranium. And in upgrading that enriched uranium. And in upgrading that enriched uranium. And that's how you got to that material that that's how you got to that material that that's how you got to that material that would be enough for the 16 bombs. And would be enough for the 16 bombs. And would be enough for the 16 bombs. And right now, we don't know where that is. right now, we don't know where that is. right now, we don't know where that is. So So So >> yeah, >> yeah, >> yeah, >> stage one is >> stage one is >> stage one is >> okay stage one you are beginning the >> okay stage one you are beginning the >> okay stage one you are beginning the escalation trap. In this case it's a escalation trap. In this case it's a escalation trap. In this case it's a smart bomb trap but it because it's with smart bomb trap but it because it's with smart bomb trap but it because it's with smart bombs where you have tactical smart bombs where you have tactical smart bombs where you have tactical success near perfect call it 100% success near perfect call it 100% success near perfect call it 100% because it it really is but that doesn't because it it really is but that doesn't because it it really is but that doesn't mean you have strategic success tactical mean you have strategic success tactical mean you have strategic success tactical success plus strategic failure. success plus strategic failure. success plus strategic failure. Then that strategic failure weighs on Then that strategic failure weighs on Then that strategic failure weighs on you over time because the enemy still you over time because the enemy still you over time because the enemy still got the thing that you wanted to get in got the thing that you wanted to get in got the thing that you wanted to get in the first place. Now you do stage two, the first place. Now you do stage two, the first place. Now you do stage two, which is regime change because after which is regime change because after which is regime change because after all, you've already hit the targets. You all, you've already hit the targets. You all, you've already hit the targets. You can make the rubble bounce, but what can make the rubble bounce, but what can make the rubble bounce, but what more? That's why we didn't bomb them in more? That's why we didn't bomb them in more? That's why we didn't bomb them in the last 10 days. We might go back and the last 10 days. We might go back and the last 10 days. We might go back and bomb for some more. Okay, but we already bomb for some more. Okay, but we already bomb for some more. Okay, but we already bombed that. So, so there's only bombed that. So, so there's only bombed that. So, so there's only watching the bubble, but now we're in watching the bubble, but now we're in watching the bubble, but now we're in stage two because what are your options? stage two because what are your options? stage two because what are your options? The only other option is well let me get The only other option is well let me get The only other option is well let me get rid of the regime because then the rid of the regime because then the rid of the regime because then the regime I will control and the next regime I will control and the next regime I will control and the next regime will just give us the material. regime will just give us the material. regime will just give us the material. That's not working now. And you hear That's not working now. And you hear That's not working now. And you hear today Trump is dancing trying to figure today Trump is dancing trying to figure today Trump is dancing trying to figure out what to say. He doesn't want to say out what to say. He doesn't want to say out what to say. He doesn't want to say the war's over. Okay. Doesn't want to the war's over. Okay. Doesn't want to the war's over. Okay. Doesn't want to say the war is going on. But the bottom say the war is going on. But the bottom say the war is going on. But the bottom line is we don't even he won't even be line is we don't even he won't even be line is we don't even he won't even be clear about why we're fighting the war clear about why we're fighting the war clear about why we're fighting the war anymore. And I'm telling you there's a anymore. And I'm telling you there's a anymore. And I'm telling you there's a real problem. The nuclear material is real problem. The nuclear material is real problem. The nuclear material is still there. still there. still there. and it can still be fashioned into those and it can still be fashioned into those and it can still be fashioned into those 16 bombs over time. So this is where 16 bombs over time. So this is where 16 bombs over time. So this is where then you get this horizontal escalation then you get this horizontal escalation then you get this horizontal escalation where now they've really really working where now they've really really working where now they've really really working on this because now it's a long war. on this because now it's a long war. on this because now it's a long war. >> They start attacking their neighbors >> They start attacking their neighbors >> They start attacking their neighbors >> and tried to make it a uh the >> and tried to make it a uh the >> and tried to make it a uh the consequences go on for months. So just consequences go on for months. So just consequences go on for months. So just imagine when are your friends exactly imagine when are your friends exactly imagine when are your friends exactly going to move back? So let's say the war going to move back? So let's say the war going to move back? So let's say the war is over tomorrow. Are they moving back is over tomorrow. Are they moving back is over tomorrow. Are they moving back tomorrow? And when was uh last time uh tomorrow? And when was uh last time uh tomorrow? And when was uh last time uh have you started to plan for your next have you started to plan for your next have you started to plan for your next vacation in Dubai? I've been I was I was vacation in Dubai? I've been I was I was vacation in Dubai? I've been I was I was planning speaking there in a month's planning speaking there in a month's planning speaking there in a month's time, but it's been cancelled already. time, but it's been cancelled already. time, but it's been cancelled already. >> Well, just Yeah, just starting to think >> Well, just Yeah, just starting to think >> Well, just Yeah, just starting to think about that and you know, minor thing about that and you know, minor thing about that and you know, minor thing like a drone attack could suddenly come like a drone attack could suddenly come like a drone attack could suddenly come out of nowhere. You know, you're not out of nowhere. You know, you're not out of nowhere. You know, you're not even you think it's I'm just trying to even you think it's I'm just trying to even you think it's I'm just trying to point out that this is this is the world point out that this is this is the world point out that this is this is the world now that a lot of people this was a now that a lot of people this was a now that a lot of people this was a luxury market. This was the playground luxury market. This was the playground luxury market. This was the playground of the rich and famous here. This is of the rich and famous here. This is of the rich and famous here. This is really now changing and it may come back really now changing and it may come back really now changing and it may come back a year or two from now, but it took two a year or two from now, but it took two a year or two from now, but it took two years for air travel to come back after years for air travel to come back after years for air travel to come back after 911. Just think about that. this. Now, 911. Just think about that. this. Now, 911. Just think about that. this. Now, we haven't gotten to stage three yet, we haven't gotten to stage three yet, we haven't gotten to stage three yet, which gets to your girlfriend's point. which gets to your girlfriend's point. which gets to your girlfriend's point. >> How do we move from stage two to stage >> How do we move from stage two to stage >> How do we move from stage two to stage three? three? three? >> Oh, well, because you still don't know >> Oh, well, because you still don't know >> Oh, well, because you still don't know where the the nuclear material is, where the the nuclear material is, where the the nuclear material is, >> and we don't have to move to stage >> and we don't have to move to stage >> and we don't have to move to stage beyond uh to stage three this week. We beyond uh to stage three this week. We beyond uh to stage three this week. We could do it a month from now, 6 months could do it a month from now, 6 months could do it a month from now, 6 months from now. The problem is we've now put from now. The problem is we've now put from now. The problem is we've now put in place a much more aggressive in place a much more aggressive in place a much more aggressive leadership, much more aggressive regime. leadership, much more aggressive regime. leadership, much more aggressive regime. We've taken away some of the uh what may We've taken away some of the uh what may We've taken away some of the uh what may have been guardrails. who can't say for have been guardrails. who can't say for have been guardrails. who can't say for sure for the nuclear weapon. This this sure for the nuclear weapon. This this sure for the nuclear weapon. This this new regime much more likely and we've new regime much more likely and we've new regime much more likely and we've given them every incentive to develop given them every incentive to develop given them every incentive to develop the nuclear bomb. We're killing them. the nuclear bomb. We're killing them. the nuclear bomb. We're killing them. So, so what exactly is their incentive? So, so what exactly is their incentive? So, so what exactly is their incentive? They're they're their best way to They're they're their best way to They're they're their best way to survive is to have a nuclear weapon. And survive is to have a nuclear weapon. And survive is to have a nuclear weapon. And you'll say, "Well, we're going to kill you'll say, "Well, we're going to kill you'll say, "Well, we're going to kill them." Well, we're already killing them. them." Well, we're already killing them. them." Well, we're already killing them. So, we've taken away their incentive not So, we've taken away their incentive not So, we've taken away their incentive not to have a nuclear weapon. So, we will to have a nuclear weapon. So, we will to have a nuclear weapon. So, we will start to worry as each week goes by. Not start to worry as each week goes by. Not start to worry as each week goes by. Not because we have great intel, not because because we have great intel, not because because we have great intel, not because our human well, it's because of the our human well, it's because of the our human well, it's because of the opposite. We don't have the exquisite opposite. We don't have the exquisite opposite. We don't have the exquisite intelligence we had with the Obama deal intelligence we had with the Obama deal intelligence we had with the Obama deal to know we had frozen the program. Now, to know we had frozen the program. Now, to know we had frozen the program. Now, that we have Swiss cheese at best. And that we have Swiss cheese at best. And that we have Swiss cheese at best. And what we will see in the holes of the what we will see in the holes of the what we will see in the holes of the Swiss cheese are indications of nuclear Swiss cheese are indications of nuclear Swiss cheese are indications of nuclear development. And that will make us worry development. And that will make us worry development. And that will make us worry because what happens with the nuclear because what happens with the nuclear because what happens with the nuclear weapon is it going to go to Hezbollah weapon is it going to go to Hezbollah weapon is it going to go to Hezbollah and is Hezbollah going to help put it in and is Hezbollah going to help put it in and is Hezbollah going to help put it in uh uh uh Hifa? What's going to happen uh uh uh Hifa? What's going to happen uh uh uh Hifa? What's going to happen with these? Are we going to give is are with these? Are we going to give is are with these? Are we going to give is are they going to give it to the Houthies? they going to give it to the Houthies? they going to give it to the Houthies? So these are the kind of worries we will So these are the kind of worries we will So these are the kind of worries we will have that will push us to the ground have that will push us to the ground have that will push us to the ground options and that that is with stage options and that that is with stage options and that that is with stage three three three the retaliation approaches the homeland the retaliation approaches the homeland the retaliation approaches the homeland >> is that realistic >> is that realistic >> is that realistic >> if ISIS with its 30 to 40,000 uh >> if ISIS with its 30 to 40,000 uh >> if ISIS with its 30 to 40,000 uh remember ISIS was not a state Iran is an remember ISIS was not a state Iran is an remember ISIS was not a state Iran is an actual state with 92 million people so actual state with 92 million people so actual state with 92 million people so if ISIS can fment commander directed if ISIS can fment commander directed if ISIS can fment commander directed inspired suicide attacks and other inspired suicide attacks and other inspired suicide attacks and other attacks in San Bernardino, just to kind attacks in San Bernardino, just to kind attacks in San Bernardino, just to kind of bring it a little bit closer to home of bring it a little bit closer to home of bring it a little bit closer to home here across the United States. Paris, here across the United States. Paris, here across the United States. Paris, remember the big Paris attack. So why remember the big Paris attack. So why remember the big Paris attack. So why exactly is Iran not if I mean ISIS was a exactly is Iran not if I mean ISIS was a exactly is Iran not if I mean ISIS was a lot weaker than Iran? lot weaker than Iran? lot weaker than Iran? >> Do you think in Iran at the moment >> Do you think in Iran at the moment >> Do you think in Iran at the moment they're working on that? They're working they're working on that? They're working they're working on that? They're working on a terrorist attack. Well, I don't I on a terrorist attack. Well, I don't I on a terrorist attack. Well, I don't I think that my work tells me that it's think that my work tells me that it's think that my work tells me that it's most likely to come with the presence of most likely to come with the presence of most likely to come with the presence of the ground forces by us. Doesn't mean the ground forces by us. Doesn't mean the ground forces by us. Doesn't mean it's it's a necessary condition, but it's it's a necessary condition, but it's it's a necessary condition, but it's just most likely. Russia in 96 with it's just most likely. Russia in 96 with it's just most likely. Russia in 96 with our help, we played a trick on them. our help, we played a trick on them. our help, we played a trick on them. Assassinated the Chchin leader. It's a Assassinated the Chchin leader. It's a Assassinated the Chchin leader. It's a leader of its republic in uh in Russia leader of its republic in uh in Russia leader of its republic in uh in Russia called Cheschna Dunv. Only a million called Cheschna Dunv. Only a million called Cheschna Dunv. Only a million people. And Russia um killed the guy. people. And Russia um killed the guy. people. And Russia um killed the guy. And we actually have pictures of him And we actually have pictures of him And we actually have pictures of him seeing the the missile hitting him seeing the the missile hitting him seeing the the missile hitting him because we can put the cameras right in because we can put the cameras right in because we can put the cameras right in the nose cone. the nose cone. the nose cone. Then the new guy took over. His name was Then the new guy took over. His name was Then the new guy took over. His name was Bazv. And he uh launched within three Bazv. And he uh launched within three Bazv. And he uh launched within three months, not the next week, Operation months, not the next week, Operation months, not the next week, Operation Jihad. And his operation jihad was much Jihad. And his operation jihad was much Jihad. And his operation jihad was much more vicious tactics. Kick the Russian more vicious tactics. Kick the Russian more vicious tactics. Kick the Russian forces. Russia is a big country. You forces. Russia is a big country. You forces. Russia is a big country. You know, hundred almost 200 million people know, hundred almost 200 million people know, hundred almost 200 million people compared to this little province of a compared to this little province of a compared to this little province of a million. Kicked the Russians out after million. Kicked the Russians out after million. Kicked the Russians out after three months. Launches a waves of three months. Launches a waves of three months. Launches a waves of suicide attacks, massive kidnappings suicide attacks, massive kidnappings suicide attacks, massive kidnappings here. This really went on for years and here. This really went on for years and here. This really went on for years and years. So when you say, are they years. So when you say, are they years. So when you say, are they planning it? I I don't think it's quite planning it? I I don't think it's quite planning it? I I don't think it's quite right, Stephen. It's not like they have right, Stephen. It's not like they have right, Stephen. It's not like they have the detailed plan they're about to the detailed plan they're about to the detailed plan they're about to execute. they have the next wave of execute. they have the next wave of execute. they have the next wave of possibilities possibilities possibilities which would come I think most likely which would come I think most likely which would come I think most likely with stage two so stage three so as this with stage two so stage three so as this with stage two so stage three so as this is expanding as the war expands it will is expanding as the war expands it will is expanding as the war expands it will go global go global go global >> really >> really >> really >> you are already seeing it global with >> you are already seeing it global with >> you are already seeing it global with the supply chain and you're seeing it the supply chain and you're seeing it the supply chain and you're seeing it with the oil so that's already happening with the oil so that's already happening with the oil so that's already happening so um what Iran said today the the uh so um what Iran said today the the uh so um what Iran said today the the uh response to Trump's press conference response to Trump's press conference response to Trump's press conference today that just literally happened today that just literally happened today that just literally happened before we came on is okay we will allow before we came on is okay we will allow before we came on is okay we will allow Gulf States your oil tankers to come Gulf States your oil tankers to come Gulf States your oil tankers to come through if you kick the Americans out. through if you kick the Americans out. through if you kick the Americans out. So kick the Americans out and we'll let So kick the Americans out and we'll let So kick the Americans out and we'll let you pass. you pass. you pass. >> If you don't, >> If you don't, >> If you don't, >> if you don't, we got drones. So they >> if you don't, we got drones. So they >> if you don't, we got drones. So they didn't put that in there, but everybody didn't put that in there, but everybody didn't put that in there, but everybody knows they got drones. knows they got drones. knows they got drones. >> And again, for if you were explaining >> And again, for if you were explaining >> And again, for if you were explaining this to a 16-year-old. this to a 16-year-old. this to a 16-year-old. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Just to keep it super simple, there's >> Just to keep it super simple, there's >> Just to keep it super simple, there's this passageway across the water where a this passageway across the water where a this passageway across the water where a lot of the oil tankers go. lot of the oil tankers go. lot of the oil tankers go. >> Yep. It's straight of Hormuz. >> Yep. It's straight of Hormuz. >> Yep. It's straight of Hormuz. >> Hormuz. And it sounded like the tankers >> Hormuz. And it sounded like the tankers >> Hormuz. And it sounded like the tankers are refusing to go through there at the are refusing to go through there at the are refusing to go through there at the moment. moment. moment. >> Sure. Because one has been hit, but it >> Sure. Because one has been hit, but it >> Sure. Because one has been hit, but it only takes one to be hit with a drone. only takes one to be hit with a drone. only takes one to be hit with a drone. Only one. Because the people driving Only one. Because the people driving Only one. Because the people driving those tankers here, they're doing it for those tankers here, they're doing it for those tankers here, they're doing it for a paycheck, not a bullet. They're not a paycheck, not a bullet. They're not a paycheck, not a bullet. They're not really wanting to die for this. This really wanting to die for this. This really wanting to die for this. This isn't a nationalist cause to ship the isn't a nationalist cause to ship the isn't a nationalist cause to ship the the oil. the oil. the oil. >> Explain why it matters to the world. If >> Explain why it matters to the world. If >> Explain why it matters to the world. If if oil doesn't go through this straight if oil doesn't go through this straight if oil doesn't go through this straight of Hummus, what matter? What happens? of Hummus, what matter? What happens? of Hummus, what matter? What happens? >> Yeah. Well, we can talk about it in like >> Yeah. Well, we can talk about it in like >> Yeah. Well, we can talk about it in like technical terms, but the big thing to technical terms, but the big thing to technical terms, but the big thing to say is this is what's going to increase say is this is what's going to increase say is this is what's going to increase the price of gas at the pump and it's the price of gas at the pump and it's the price of gas at the pump and it's already gone up. When you cut the flow already gone up. When you cut the flow already gone up. When you cut the flow of the oil, it has global effects. It of the oil, it has global effects. It of the oil, it has global effects. It doesn't just affect this little region doesn't just affect this little region doesn't just affect this little region here. It doesn't just affect China over here. It doesn't just affect China over here. It doesn't just affect China over here. It affects everybody. And that's here. It affects everybody. And that's here. It affects everybody. And that's why the Europeans are starting to freak why the Europeans are starting to freak why the Europeans are starting to freak out because this they're already every out because this they're already every out because this they're already every government worries about we talk about government worries about we talk about government worries about we talk about affordability. That's about to change. affordability. That's about to change. affordability. That's about to change. >> And is this your point about how it >> And is this your point about how it >> And is this your point about how it changes the politics at home because changes the politics at home because changes the politics at home because people someone goes to the pump today, people someone goes to the pump today, people someone goes to the pump today, they go why is the oil higher? they go why is the oil higher? they go why is the oil higher? >> That's right. Why is the we just came we >> That's right. Why is the we just came we >> That's right. Why is the we just came we we now have 4.4% unemployment. Um if we we now have 4.4% unemployment. Um if we we now have 4.4% unemployment. Um if we and and President Trump was trying to and and President Trump was trying to and and President Trump was trying to say it's all getting better, the say it's all getting better, the say it's all getting better, the interest rates are going down. Well, interest rates are going down. Well, interest rates are going down. Well, that all predicated on us not having that all predicated on us not having that all predicated on us not having inflation. You see, when the oil is cut, inflation. You see, when the oil is cut, inflation. You see, when the oil is cut, the inflation goes up, the affordability the inflation goes up, the affordability the inflation goes up, the affordability becomes a problem. That is what is becomes a problem. That is what is becomes a problem. That is what is panicking a lot of the businesses right panicking a lot of the businesses right panicking a lot of the businesses right now because they're going to lose now because they're going to lose now because they're going to lose business and and it's a problem of risk. business and and it's a problem of risk. business and and it's a problem of risk. It's not just about the damage. So, a It's not just about the damage. So, a It's not just about the damage. So, a little a few of these drones can have an little a few of these drones can have an little a few of these drones can have an inordinate effect on risk. Now let's inordinate effect on risk. Now let's inordinate effect on risk. Now let's bring in another piece which is Russia bring in another piece which is Russia bring in another piece which is Russia we find out is providing targeting we find out is providing targeting we find out is providing targeting intelligence to Iran much the way we intelligence to Iran much the way we intelligence to Iran much the way we provide targeting intelligence to provide targeting intelligence to provide targeting intelligence to Ukraine to hit uh uh targets in Russia. Ukraine to hit uh uh targets in Russia. Ukraine to hit uh uh targets in Russia. And what does that mean? That means And what does that mean? That means And what does that mean? That means those drones which are precisiong guided those drones which are precisiong guided those drones which are precisiong guided now can more easily find exactly which now can more easily find exactly which now can more easily find exactly which ship to hit. So ship to hit. So ship to hit. So >> we know that Russia are doing that. >> we know that Russia are doing that. >> we know that Russia are doing that. because we've got it pretty well because we've got it pretty well because we've got it pretty well confirmed from Yeah. It's you would hear confirmed from Yeah. It's you would hear confirmed from Yeah. It's you would hear much more push back here. And what much more push back here. And what much more push back here. And what you're hearing from Secretary Hegsth is you're hearing from Secretary Hegsth is you're hearing from Secretary Hegsth is not it's not happening. You're saying, not it's not happening. You're saying, not it's not happening. You're saying, "Oh, no. Well, let's not overw worry." "Oh, no. Well, let's not overw worry." "Oh, no. Well, let's not overw worry." No, it's happening. And they're worried No, it's happening. And they're worried No, it's happening. And they're worried because that's the that's the again the because that's the that's the again the because that's the that's the again the dancing around. They're not denying the dancing around. They're not denying the dancing around. They're not denying the fact that it's actually happening. fact that it's actually happening. fact that it's actually happening. >> I think Trump actually when asked said >> I think Trump actually when asked said >> I think Trump actually when asked said something words to the effect of, "I something words to the effect of, "I something words to the effect of, "I wouldn't blame them because that's what wouldn't blame them because that's what wouldn't blame them because that's what we do to them." we do to them." we do to them." >> Exactly. Exactly. And why is he talking >> Exactly. Exactly. And why is he talking >> Exactly. Exactly. And why is he talking to Putin today? He's not talking He was to Putin today? He's not talking He was to Putin today? He's not talking He was just on the phone with Putin before he just on the phone with Putin before he just on the phone with Putin before he did his press conference. What's he did his press conference. What's he did his press conference. What's he talking to Putin about? Bad intel, I'm talking to Putin about? Bad intel, I'm talking to Putin about? Bad intel, I'm sure, and maybe cutting a deal, which is sure, and maybe cutting a deal, which is sure, and maybe cutting a deal, which is we'll deny the Ukrainians the intel if we'll deny the Ukrainians the intel if we'll deny the Ukrainians the intel if you deny. You see, this is the this is you deny. You see, this is the this is you deny. You see, this is the this is this is the the cascading effects of the this is the the cascading effects of the this is the the cascading effects of the politics dominates the tactics. politics dominates the tactics. politics dominates the tactics. >> And that's exactly what Trump said. He >> And that's exactly what Trump said. He >> And that's exactly what Trump said. He said on March the 7th when asked about said on March the 7th when asked about said on March the 7th when asked about Russia teaming up with Iran on Russia teaming up with Iran on Russia teaming up with Iran on intelligence, he said, "If we asked intelligence, he said, "If we asked intelligence, he said, "If we asked them, they'd say, "We do it against them, they'd say, "We do it against them, they'd say, "We do it against them." Wouldn't they say that we do it them." Wouldn't they say that we do it them." Wouldn't they say that we do it against them? against them? against them? It's almost justifying it. It's almost justifying it. It's almost justifying it. >> Trump often just speaks his mind. Uh >> Trump often just speaks his mind. Uh >> Trump often just speaks his mind. Uh sometimes he kind of hides things, but sometimes he kind of hides things, but sometimes he kind of hides things, but some often he speaks his mind. And what some often he speaks his mind. And what some often he speaks his mind. And what you're seeing here is of this is the you're seeing here is of this is the you're seeing here is of this is the natural thing. Russia is uh what's good natural thing. Russia is uh what's good natural thing. Russia is uh what's good for the goose, good for the gander. for the goose, good for the gander. for the goose, good for the gander. They're doing the same thing to us that They're doing the same thing to us that They're doing the same thing to us that we've done to them. And they have and we've done to them. And they have and we've done to them. And they have and they're doing it to hurt us, you see. So they're doing it to hurt us, you see. So they're doing it to hurt us, you see. So rather than just spasmotically or spasm rather than just spasmotically or spasm rather than just spasmotically or spasm response here, which we often think the response here, which we often think the response here, which we often think the the foes we're up against are stupid. We the foes we're up against are stupid. We the foes we're up against are stupid. We essentially think they're dumb. We call essentially think they're dumb. We call essentially think they're dumb. We call that irrational. But what's really that irrational. But what's really that irrational. But what's really happening, Stephen, is um since the happening, Stephen, is um since the happening, Stephen, is um since the Vietnam War, we have been up against Vietnam War, we have been up against Vietnam War, we have been up against foes that have understood something foes that have understood something foes that have understood something about America, which is the way to get about America, which is the way to get about America, which is the way to get at us is polit politically. Make it a at us is polit politically. Make it a at us is polit politically. Make it a long war. Play the politics. You can't long war. Play the politics. You can't long war. Play the politics. You can't go toe-to-toe with us on the go toe-to-toe with us on the go toe-to-toe with us on the battlefield. We'll just clean their battlefield. We'll just clean their battlefield. We'll just clean their clock over and over. They don't often clock over and over. They don't often clock over and over. They don't often try. They don't go toe-to-toe with us. try. They don't go toe-to-toe with us. try. They don't go toe-to-toe with us. We lost the Vietnam War with never We lost the Vietnam War with never We lost the Vietnam War with never losing a battle. How did we lose? We losing a battle. How did we lose? We losing a battle. How did we lose? We lost the long game. 58,000 dead, no end lost the long game. 58,000 dead, no end lost the long game. 58,000 dead, no end in sight, a forever war. What are we in sight, a forever war. What are we in sight, a forever war. What are we doing this for? That is how the North doing this for? That is how the North doing this for? That is how the North Vietnamese won. And that's how the Vietnamese won. And that's how the Vietnamese won. And that's how the Afghan Taliban won. That's how the bad Afghan Taliban won. That's how the bad Afghan Taliban won. That's how the bad guys typically beat us. They don't guys typically beat us. They don't guys typically beat us. They don't always win, but the bottom line is we always win, but the bottom line is we always win, but the bottom line is we have a soft underbelly. It's not the have a soft underbelly. It's not the have a soft underbelly. It's not the military. military. military. Much of the reason most people haven't Much of the reason most people haven't Much of the reason most people haven't posted content or built their personal posted content or built their personal posted content or built their personal brand is because it's hard and it's brand is because it's hard and it's brand is because it's hard and it's timeconuming and we're all very very timeconuming and we're all very very timeconuming and we're all very very busy and if you've never posted busy and if you've never posted busy and if you've never posted something before there's so many factors something before there's so many factors something before there's so many factors in your psychology that stop you wanting in your psychology that stop you wanting in your psychology that stop you wanting to post what people will think of you am to post what people will think of you am to post what people will think of you am I doing this right is the thing I'm I doing this right is the thing I'm I doing this right is the thing I'm saying absolutely stupid all of these saying absolutely stupid all of these saying absolutely stupid all of these result in paralysis which means you result in paralysis which means you result in paralysis which means you don't post and your feed goes bare I'm don't post and your feed goes bare I'm don't post and your feed goes bare I'm an investor in a company called Stanto an investor in a company called Stanto an investor in a company called Stanto which you've probably heard me talk which you've probably heard me talk which you've probably heard me talk about and what they've been building is about and what they've been building is about and what they've been building is this new tool called Stanley that uses this new tool called Stanley that uses this new tool called Stanley that uses AI, looks at your feed, looks at your AI, looks at your feed, looks at your AI, looks at your feed, looks at your tone of voice, looks at your history, tone of voice, looks at your history, tone of voice, looks at your history, looks at your best performing posts, and looks at your best performing posts, and looks at your best performing posts, and tells you what you should post, makes tells you what you should post, makes tells you what you should post, makes those posts for you. 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Yeah. >> If you had to predict what you think >> If you had to predict what you think >> If you had to predict what you think happens next, what would you predict? happens next, what would you predict? happens next, what would you predict? >> Well, I say this at the end of the >> Well, I say this at the end of the >> Well, I say this at the end of the foreign affairs article that just foreign affairs article that just foreign affairs article that just literally came out a couple hours ago, literally came out a couple hours ago, literally came out a couple hours ago, which is President Trump is on the horns which is President Trump is on the horns which is President Trump is on the horns of a dilemma and he has no golden of a dilemma and he has no golden of a dilemma and he has no golden offramp. He's looking for offramps, but offramp. He's looking for offramps, but offramp. He's looking for offramps, but there's no golden one where he comes out there's no golden one where he comes out there's no golden one where he comes out politically ahead. So, he's got a politically ahead. So, he's got a politically ahead. So, he's got a choice, sometimes called a Hobbesian choice, sometimes called a Hobbesian choice, sometimes called a Hobbesian choice, a Hobsonian choice where you cut choice, a Hobsonian choice where you cut choice, a Hobsonian choice where you cut your losses, accept political loss now. your losses, accept political loss now. your losses, accept political loss now. And right now, if he pulls back, and And right now, if he pulls back, and And right now, if he pulls back, and what does it mean to pull back? You got what does it mean to pull back? You got what does it mean to pull back? You got to pull your forces back. It's not to pull your forces back. It's not to pull your forces back. It's not enough to say you're just doing a pause. enough to say you're just doing a pause. enough to say you're just doing a pause. If you want to stop, if you want to stop If you want to stop, if you want to stop If you want to stop, if you want to stop for real, you take those aircraft for real, you take those aircraft for real, you take those aircraft carriers and you send them out carriers and you send them out carriers and you send them out somewhere. You send them to Asia. You somewhere. You send them to Asia. You somewhere. You send them to Asia. You send them here. You got to actually make send them here. You got to actually make send them here. You got to actually make you got to do something here. So, choice you got to do something here. So, choice you got to do something here. So, choice one is you stop your bombing campaign. one is you stop your bombing campaign. one is you stop your bombing campaign. You cut your losses. You do your best to You cut your losses. You do your best to You cut your losses. You do your best to say we just wanted to destroy missiles say we just wanted to destroy missiles say we just wanted to destroy missiles even though nobody will believe it. even though nobody will believe it. even though nobody will believe it. Okay. Um but that means you accept a a Okay. Um but that means you accept a a Okay. Um but that means you accept a a modest loss now. Or the other is you modest loss now. Or the other is you modest loss now. Or the other is you double down and you go on for more double down and you go on for more double down and you go on for more weeks. go on for more weeks hoping weeks. go on for more weeks hoping weeks. go on for more weeks hoping you'll kill this leader and maybe the you'll kill this leader and maybe the you'll kill this leader and maybe the next one won't be so bad or you'll next one won't be so bad or you'll next one won't be so bad or you'll you'll have some other sort of uh you'll have some other sort of uh you'll have some other sort of uh outcome that you can't imagine. And outcome that you can't imagine. And outcome that you can't imagine. And Trump is nothing I call him a chaos kid. Trump is nothing I call him a chaos kid. Trump is nothing I call him a chaos kid. He thrives in chaos and he often comes He thrives in chaos and he often comes He thrives in chaos and he often comes out of this with something happening out of this with something happening out of this with something happening like when you know sort of down the road like when you know sort of down the road like when you know sort of down the road you didn't expect it. He probably didn't you didn't expect it. He probably didn't you didn't expect it. He probably didn't expect it. But in this case, the price expect it. But in this case, the price expect it. But in this case, the price is more likely going to be a political is more likely going to be a political is more likely going to be a political failure of the first order because we failure of the first order because we failure of the first order because we have the midterms coming. So if if he have the midterms coming. So if if he have the midterms coming. So if if he he's got a choice, stop now, cut your he's got a choice, stop now, cut your he's got a choice, stop now, cut your losses, accept a limited political losses, accept a limited political losses, accept a limited political defeat, or double down, go on for a few defeat, or double down, go on for a few defeat, or double down, go on for a few months, go through more stages of this months, go through more stages of this months, go through more stages of this uh smart bomb trap I'm explaining, and uh smart bomb trap I'm explaining, and uh smart bomb trap I'm explaining, and you're really now in Lynden Johnson you're really now in Lynden Johnson you're really now in Lynden Johnson territory. Remember I mentioned before territory. Remember I mentioned before territory. Remember I mentioned before where in Vietnam he kept escalating, where in Vietnam he kept escalating, where in Vietnam he kept escalating, kept moving up the escalation ladder. kept moving up the escalation ladder. kept moving up the escalation ladder. Every rung he said, "Well, no, we have Every rung he said, "Well, no, we have Every rung he said, "Well, no, we have escalation dominance. We're just going escalation dominance. We're just going escalation dominance. We're just going to double down. We're going to hit them to double down. We're going to hit them to double down. We're going to hit them harder the next time. We're going to do harder the next time. We're going to do harder the next time. We're going to do this the next time." Sound familiar? And this the next time." Sound familiar? And this the next time." Sound familiar? And then what happened is it became then what happened is it became then what happened is it became absolutely clear uh that this was going absolutely clear uh that this was going absolutely clear uh that this was going nowhere and the 68 election came was nowhere and the 68 election came was nowhere and the 68 election came was coming and Lynden Johnson's own coming and Lynden Johnson's own coming and Lynden Johnson's own Democrats said, "Mr. president, we can't Democrats said, "Mr. president, we can't Democrats said, "Mr. president, we can't ride your horse into that. We got to do ride your horse into that. We got to do ride your horse into that. We got to do something. And the problem is they something. And the problem is they something. And the problem is they didn't pull the plug fast enough here. didn't pull the plug fast enough here. didn't pull the plug fast enough here. That's how they lost. They don't they That's how they lost. They don't they That's how they lost. They don't they they don't pull the plug fast enough. they don't pull the plug fast enough. they don't pull the plug fast enough. So, you end up having a bigger loss So, you end up having a bigger loss So, you end up having a bigger loss later. later. later. >> When you talk about the the um >> When you talk about the the um >> When you talk about the the um underbelly that the United States has underbelly that the United States has underbelly that the United States has where they can't prolong these wars, am where they can't prolong these wars, am where they can't prolong these wars, am I right in thinking this is basically a I right in thinking this is basically a I right in thinking this is basically a function or a a consequence of living in function or a a consequence of living in function or a a consequence of living in a democracy where every four years a democracy where every four years a democracy where every four years >> I I think it's a function of a war of >> I I think it's a function of a war of >> I I think it's a function of a war of choice. So when we were attacked in choice. So when we were attacked in choice. So when we were attacked in Pearl Harbor, we were attacked. Pearl Harbor, we were attacked. Pearl Harbor, we were attacked. >> We were reluctant to get in World War II >> We were reluctant to get in World War II >> We were reluctant to get in World War II and we were we didn't get in until we and we were we didn't get in until we and we were we didn't get in until we were actually struck at Pearl Harbor. were actually struck at Pearl Harbor. were actually struck at Pearl Harbor. That was enough to really make us angry. That was enough to really make us angry. That was enough to really make us angry. We were pissed off as a country. Okay? We were pissed off as a country. Okay? We were pissed off as a country. Okay? And we were going to get payback not And we were going to get payback not And we were going to get payback not just for a month, but we were getting just for a month, but we were getting just for a month, but we were getting some real payback here. And that's how some real payback here. And that's how some real payback here. And that's how vicious that island hopping campaign was vicious that island hopping campaign was vicious that island hopping campaign was and why it was so vicious here. And that and why it was so vicious here. And that and why it was so vicious here. And that went on and on. And when we ended the went on and on. And when we ended the went on and on. And when we ended the war um in in dropping those atomic war um in in dropping those atomic war um in in dropping those atomic bombs, 22% of the American public wanted bombs, 22% of the American public wanted bombs, 22% of the American public wanted us to forget the Japanese surrender and us to forget the Japanese surrender and us to forget the Japanese surrender and drop more atomic bombs. 22%. We are that drop more atomic bombs. 22%. We are that drop more atomic bombs. 22%. We are that angry. So when we are attacked first, we angry. So when we are attacked first, we angry. So when we are attacked first, we have the politics and our advantage. have the politics and our advantage. have the politics and our advantage. When we do a war of choice, we can make When we do a war of choice, we can make When we do a war of choice, we can make up all the reasons why it was a good up all the reasons why it was a good up all the reasons why it was a good idea to start throw the first punch. idea to start throw the first punch. idea to start throw the first punch. They were going to hit us. We were gonna They were going to hit us. We were gonna They were going to hit us. We were gonna But when we throw that first punch But when we throw that first punch But when we throw that first punch first, that's a war of choice. And this first, that's a war of choice. And this first, that's a war of choice. And this puts the politics in the other camp's puts the politics in the other camp's puts the politics in the other camp's advantage. And that's the problem that advantage. And that's the problem that advantage. And that's the problem that we're facing here. Iran didn't hit us we're facing here. Iran didn't hit us we're facing here. Iran didn't hit us first. They didn't hit us first in June. first. They didn't hit us first in June. first. They didn't hit us first in June. They didn't hit us first before that. They didn't hit us first before that. They didn't hit us first before that. >> So on this point of war of choice, >> So on this point of war of choice, >> So on this point of war of choice, >> y there's really two questions I have there's really two questions I have front of mind. One is was Trump right front of mind. One is was Trump right front of mind. One is was Trump right that if he didn't attack then they would that if he didn't attack then they would that if he didn't attack then they would have enriched uranium they would have have enriched uranium they would have have enriched uranium they would have made a nuclear weapon and that would made a nuclear weapon and that would made a nuclear weapon and that would have put not just the region but the have put not just the region but the have put not just the region but the world at danger in your view and then world at danger in your view and then world at danger in your view and then the second one is this sort of ongoing the second one is this sort of ongoing the second one is this sort of ongoing debate around the role of Israel in this debate around the role of Israel in this debate around the role of Israel in this war and I think it was Marco Rubio that war and I think it was Marco Rubio that war and I think it was Marco Rubio that came out and I think maybe accidentally came out and I think maybe accidentally came out and I think maybe accidentally said that the reason why they attacked said that the reason why they attacked said that the reason why they attacked Iran was because they heard that Israel Iran was because they heard that Israel Iran was because they heard that Israel were about to attack Iran. were about to attack Iran. were about to attack Iran. >> So, so let's go back to the Friday, the >> So, so let's go back to the Friday, the >> So, so let's go back to the Friday, the day before we start the bombing day before we start the bombing day before we start the bombing campaign. This is February 27, literally campaign. This is February 27, literally campaign. This is February 27, literally 3:15 Washington time. That's when Trump 3:15 Washington time. That's when Trump 3:15 Washington time. That's when Trump makes the go decision. But what's in his makes the go decision. But what's in his makes the go decision. But what's in his what what is he choosing between? He has what what is he choosing between? He has what what is he choosing between? He has an offer on the table from Iran for a an offer on the table from Iran for a an offer on the table from Iran for a better deal than the Obama deal for better deal than the Obama deal for better deal than the Obama deal for America. And it is uh it's not America. And it is uh it's not America. And it is uh it's not absolutely perfect. They still want to absolutely perfect. They still want to absolutely perfect. They still want to have some minor enrichment to but that have some minor enrichment to but that have some minor enrichment to but that uh verification lots of things here. Now uh verification lots of things here. Now uh verification lots of things here. Now maybe it's still not perfect but maybe it's still not perfect but maybe it's still not perfect but President Trump has a choice on that President Trump has a choice on that President Trump has a choice on that Friday afternoon. He can go back and he Friday afternoon. He can go back and he Friday afternoon. He can go back and he can work this deal. He can, you know, can work this deal. He can, you know, can work this deal. He can, you know, after all dealmaker, right? Let's let's after all dealmaker, right? Let's let's after all dealmaker, right? Let's let's assume he's good at dealmaking. So he assume he's good at dealmaking. So he assume he's good at dealmaking. So he can go back and work the deal. But can go back and work the deal. But can go back and work the deal. But that's not what he does. What he does is that's not what he does. What he does is that's not what he does. What he does is he throws that deal away. And also the he throws that deal away. And also the he throws that deal away. And also the supreme leader when he killed that's the supreme leader when he killed that's the supreme leader when he killed that's the supreme leader was on board with that supreme leader was on board with that supreme leader was on board with that deal too. And what do we do instead? We deal too. And what do we do instead? We deal too. And what do we do instead? We we go through regime change. So the we go through regime change. So the we go through regime change. So the choices here Stephen were before we got choices here Stephen were before we got choices here Stephen were before we got to stage two we were in stage one. Stage to stage two we were in stage one. Stage to stage two we were in stage one. Stage one we had hit fore it it would there one we had hit fore it it would there one we had hit fore it it would there were were negotiations and Iran's coming were were negotiations and Iran's coming were were negotiations and Iran's coming up with a better deal than the Obama up with a better deal than the Obama up with a better deal than the Obama deal. And what does he do? he goes to deal. And what does he do? he goes to deal. And what does he do? he goes to stage two instead. So I don't think this stage two instead. So I don't think this stage two instead. So I don't think this is this this story you're hearing they is this this story you're hearing they is this this story you're hearing they were gonna do X Y or Z is there was a were gonna do X Y or Z is there was a were gonna do X Y or Z is there was a deal on the table and deal on the table and deal on the table and >> why did Rubio say that then? Why did he >> why did Rubio say that then? Why did he >> why did Rubio say that then? Why did he say that they attacked? Because Israel say that they attacked? Because Israel say that they attacked? Because Israel were going to attack. were going to attack. were going to attack. >> Okay, I want to play this video which is >> Okay, I want to play this video which is >> Okay, I want to play this video which is what I'm referring to. what I'm referring to. what I'm referring to. >> Okay, >> Okay, >> Okay, >> if we stood and waited for that attack >> if we stood and waited for that attack >> if we stood and waited for that attack to come first before we hit them, we to come first before we hit them, we to come first before we hit them, we would suffer much higher casualties. And would suffer much higher casualties. And would suffer much higher casualties. And so the president made the very wise so the president made the very wise so the president made the very wise decision. He we knew that there was decision. He we knew that there was decision. He we knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew going to be an Israeli action. We knew going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack that that would precipitate an attack that that would precipitate an attack against American forces. And we knew against American forces. And we knew against American forces. And we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after that if we didn't preemptively go after that if we didn't preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, them before they launched those attacks, them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties and we would suffer higher casualties and we would suffer higher casualties and perhaps even hire those killed. And then perhaps even hire those killed. And then perhaps even hire those killed. And then we would all be here answering questions we would all be here answering questions we would all be here answering questions about why we knew that and didn't act. about why we knew that and didn't act. about why we knew that and didn't act. >> So what that shows you is that it's the >> So what that shows you is that it's the >> So what that shows you is that it's the tail wagging the dog that Israel is tail wagging the dog that Israel is tail wagging the dog that Israel is going to attack. as I'm saying just going to attack. as I'm saying just going to attack. as I'm saying just happened in June. It's a replay of what happened in June. It's a replay of what happened in June. It's a replay of what happened in June. Israel may well have happened in June. Israel may well have happened in June. Israel may well have We don't know why Israel decided to We don't know why Israel decided to We don't know why Israel decided to attack and kill the Supreme Leader. It attack and kill the Supreme Leader. It attack and kill the Supreme Leader. It was actually Israeli bombs who killed was actually Israeli bombs who killed was actually Israeli bombs who killed the Supreme Leader. Uh and also those the Supreme Leader. Uh and also those the Supreme Leader. Uh and also those other replacement leaders as well. But other replacement leaders as well. But other replacement leaders as well. But Israel may well have been thinking that Israel may well have been thinking that Israel may well have been thinking that my goodness, Trump is getting too close my goodness, Trump is getting too close my goodness, Trump is getting too close to a deal. That's what happened in June. to a deal. That's what happened in June. to a deal. That's what happened in June. Trump was on the edge of a deal with Trump was on the edge of a deal with Trump was on the edge of a deal with Iran and then Israel goes and kills the Iran and then Israel goes and kills the Iran and then Israel goes and kills the negotiators. You see? So just think negotiators. You see? So just think negotiators. You see? So just think about that for a moment. They're ne about that for a moment. They're ne about that for a moment. They're ne Trump is negotiating with the Iranians Trump is negotiating with the Iranians Trump is negotiating with the Iranians and then they say, "Well, okay, come and then they say, "Well, okay, come and then they say, "Well, okay, come back the next day and what is there the back the next day and what is there the back the next day and what is there the next day? Israeli bombs killing them." next day? Israeli bombs killing them." next day? Israeli bombs killing them." >> So I mean, that's not a good that's not >> So I mean, that's not a good that's not >> So I mean, that's not a good that's not a great way to handle a partnership. a great way to handle a partnership. a great way to handle a partnership. >> Well, it's just it's just showing you we >> Well, it's just it's just showing you we >> Well, it's just it's just showing you we had another choice. We could have told had another choice. We could have told had another choice. We could have told Israel not to do it. We could have told Israel not to do it. We could have told Israel not to do it. We could have told Israel if you do this, we're going to Israel if you do this, we're going to Israel if you do this, we're going to cut off all your military aid for the cut off all your military aid for the cut off all your military aid for the next three years. That would be put some next three years. That would be put some next three years. That would be put some pressure on Israel. now then Trump would pressure on Israel. now then Trump would pressure on Israel. now then Trump would have to pay a price politically. So I'm have to pay a price politically. So I'm have to pay a price politically. So I'm not saying that's an easy thing to do. not saying that's an easy thing to do. not saying that's an easy thing to do. Don't get me wrong, but we need to Don't get me wrong, but we need to Don't get me wrong, but we need to understand that that Trump these are the understand that that Trump these are the understand that that Trump these are the these are the pressures for escalation these are the pressures for escalation these are the pressures for escalation in the escalation trap. So I'm trying to in the escalation trap. So I'm trying to in the escalation trap. So I'm trying to explain why this isn't just randomly explain why this isn't just randomly explain why this isn't just randomly happening, Stephen. It's not like, oh my happening, Stephen. It's not like, oh my happening, Stephen. It's not like, oh my goodness, I can't follow what's goodness, I can't follow what's goodness, I can't follow what's occurring. So that's why when Trump says occurring. So that's why when Trump says occurring. So that's why when Trump says in today's briefing uh talks about in today's briefing uh talks about in today's briefing uh talks about stopping the air campaign, is he going stopping the air campaign, is he going stopping the air campaign, is he going to stop Israel's campaign? That's the to stop Israel's campaign? That's the to stop Israel's campaign? That's the question that did not come up today. question that did not come up today. question that did not come up today. It's in my I put on my accent. The one It's in my I put on my accent. The one It's in my I put on my accent. The one of the big questions that did not come of the big questions that did not come of the big questions that did not come up is President Trump, are you going to up is President Trump, are you going to up is President Trump, are you going to call Netanyahu and tell him to stop call Netanyahu and tell him to stop call Netanyahu and tell him to stop bombing Iraq? bombing Iraq? bombing Iraq? >> Does Trump control Netanyahu in your >> Does Trump control Netanyahu in your >> Does Trump control Netanyahu in your view? view? view? >> Well, again, it's about pressures here. >> Well, again, it's about pressures here. >> Well, again, it's about pressures here. It's about what are the uh what are the It's about what are the uh what are the It's about what are the uh what are the ways you you you you don't it's not ways you you you you don't it's not ways you you you you don't it's not about a matter of like a personal about a matter of like a personal about a matter of like a personal loyalty relationship. This is politics loyalty relationship. This is politics loyalty relationship. This is politics of the first order. That's what I'm of the first order. That's what I'm of the first order. That's what I'm trying to explain. So for President trying to explain. So for President trying to explain. So for President Trump to stop Netanyahu from doing this, Trump to stop Netanyahu from doing this, Trump to stop Netanyahu from doing this, this will be paying a price. He will this will be paying a price. He will this will be paying a price. He will have a there are a big part of his MAGA have a there are a big part of his MAGA have a there are a big part of his MAGA constituency is very pro not just Israel constituency is very pro not just Israel constituency is very pro not just Israel pro-Netanyahu pro-Netanyahu pro-Netanyahu version of Israel. So, this is the version of Israel. So, this is the version of Israel. So, this is the tension in and the politics that I'm tension in and the politics that I'm tension in and the politics that I'm trying to explain, which is why you trying to explain, which is why you trying to explain, which is why you don't really want to start the trap in don't really want to start the trap in don't really want to start the trap in the first place. the first place. the first place. >> And I asked you a second ago, no fence >> And I asked you a second ago, no fence >> And I asked you a second ago, no fence sitting, what happens next in this war sitting, what happens next in this war sitting, what happens next in this war based on everything you've studied for based on everything you've studied for based on everything you've studied for the last 30 years, the 20 years of doing the last 30 years, the 20 years of doing the last 30 years, the 20 years of doing >> I think it's more likely than not that >> I think it's more likely than not that >> I think it's more likely than not that maybe not in the next week or two. I've maybe not in the next week or two. I've maybe not in the next week or two. I've said uh on my substack it's more likely said uh on my substack it's more likely said uh on my substack it's more likely than not we will get to a limited um uh than not we will get to a limited um uh than not we will get to a limited um uh ground deployment here because of the ground deployment here because of the ground deployment here because of the fizzle because of the I'm keep saying fizzle because of the I'm keep saying fizzle because of the I'm keep saying because of the the enriched material because of the the enriched material because of the the enriched material that is floating around and we know it's that is floating around and we know it's that is floating around and we know it's dispersing. We know it's dispersing. We dispersing. We know it's dispersing. We dispersing. We know it's dispersing. We don't know where it is. And there could don't know where it is. And there could don't know where it is. And there could be literally hundreds of rooms not much be literally hundreds of rooms not much be literally hundreds of rooms not much bigger than this size, maybe two or bigger than this size, maybe two or bigger than this size, maybe two or three times this size that we're in. three times this size that we're in. three times this size that we're in. That could be used to uh fashion an an a That could be used to uh fashion an an a That could be used to uh fashion an an a fat man style a bomb. Not to fat man style a bomb. Not to fat man style a bomb. Not to miniaturaturize it, to put on a warhead. miniaturaturize it, to put on a warhead. miniaturaturize it, to put on a warhead. That would be more sophisticated. But if That would be more sophisticated. But if That would be more sophisticated. But if what you want to do is you want to have what you want to do is you want to have what you want to do is you want to have a Hiroshima bomb that can kill 75,000 a Hiroshima bomb that can kill 75,000 a Hiroshima bomb that can kill 75,000 people in a second or 10 seconds, that people in a second or 10 seconds, that people in a second or 10 seconds, that is what they are in the the the the is what they are in the the the the is what they are in the the the the that's what we're talking about here. that's what we're talking about here. that's what we're talking about here. We're not talking about can they put We're not talking about can they put We're not talking about can they put miniaturaturize the bomb to put it on miniaturaturize the bomb to put it on miniaturaturize the bomb to put it on the nose cone of a war of a missile. the nose cone of a war of a missile. the nose cone of a war of a missile. This is they don't need to. That's very This is they don't need to. That's very This is they don't need to. That's very sophisticated stuff. We couldn't do that sophisticated stuff. We couldn't do that sophisticated stuff. We couldn't do that for 10 years. for 10 years. for 10 years. >> So I guess there's two there's two >> So I guess there's two there's two >> So I guess there's two there's two questions that come to mind. The first questions that come to mind. The first questions that come to mind. The first is to understand someone's behavior, you is to understand someone's behavior, you is to understand someone's behavior, you have to like understand their have to like understand their have to like understand their motivations. And I I think a lot about motivations. And I I think a lot about motivations. And I I think a lot about like where Trump is in his career, legacy, how how much that career, legacy, how how much that matters to him. It appears from what matters to him. It appears from what matters to him. It appears from what I've seen, the whole thing around him I've seen, the whole thing around him I've seen, the whole thing around him wanting to win the Nobel Peace Prize, wanting to win the Nobel Peace Prize, wanting to win the Nobel Peace Prize, the the Peace Board, the being the the the Peace Board, the being the the the Peace Board, the being the president that stops all, it appears president that stops all, it appears president that stops all, it appears that he's thinking about how he's going that he's thinking about how he's going that he's thinking about how he's going to be remembered. And when I'm looking to be remembered. And when I'm looking to be remembered. And when I'm looking at some of his interviews recently, he's at some of his interviews recently, he's at some of his interviews recently, he's saying things like, "I don't want it to saying things like, "I don't want it to saying things like, "I don't want it to be the case that in 10 years time or in be the case that in 10 years time or in be the case that in 10 years time or in 5 years time, the US have to go back in 5 years time, the US have to go back in 5 years time, the US have to go back in again because like I didn't do a good again because like I didn't do a good again because like I didn't do a good job." And it made me start to believe job." And it made me start to believe job." And it made me start to believe that actually one of his one of the that actually one of his one of the that actually one of his one of the reasons why we might escalate this war reasons why we might escalate this war reasons why we might escalate this war further from a United States perspective further from a United States perspective further from a United States perspective is because is because is because legacy changes in hindsight. And if we legacy changes in hindsight. And if we legacy changes in hindsight. And if we think about George W. Bush, think about George W. Bush, think about George W. Bush, >> I think you're putting your finger on >> I think you're putting your finger on >> I think you're putting your finger on it, Stephen. it, Stephen. it, Stephen. >> George W. Bush's legacy now is like >> George W. Bush's legacy now is like >> George W. Bush's legacy now is like completely tarnished because of this one completely tarnished because of this one completely tarnished because of this one war and actually how it ended. war and actually how it ended. war and actually how it ended. >> Yeah. But also >> Yeah. But also >> Yeah. But also >> it's a mistake in hindsight. >> it's a mistake in hindsight. >> it's a mistake in hindsight. >> But also now mirror image that to the >> But also now mirror image that to the >> But also now mirror image that to the Iranians. Why aren't they thinking about Iranians. Why aren't they thinking about Iranians. Why aren't they thinking about their legacy? their legacy? their legacy? >> Think about that for a moment. Why would >> Think about that for a moment. Why would >> Think about that for a moment. Why would the Supreme Leader 86 years old decide the Supreme Leader 86 years old decide the Supreme Leader 86 years old decide he's not going to take too many more he's not going to take too many more he's not going to take too many more precautions? How many more months does precautions? How many more months does precautions? How many more months does he had cancer apparently? How many more he had cancer apparently? How many more he had cancer apparently? How many more months does he got? How does he want to months does he got? How does he want to months does he got? How does he want to go out? How does he really want to go go out? How does he really want to go go out? How does he really want to go out? What's he want to be remembered out? What's he want to be remembered out? What's he want to be remembered for? A coward or does he want to be for? A coward or does he want to be for? A coward or does he want to be remembered as somebody who stood up for remembered as somebody who stood up for remembered as somebody who stood up for Iran, the revolution, the whole thing he Iran, the revolution, the whole thing he Iran, the revolution, the whole thing he built his whole life for? You talk about built his whole life for? You talk about built his whole life for? You talk about Trump where so when I get into behind Trump where so when I get into behind Trump where so when I get into behind when the cameras go off and I get a when the cameras go off and I get a when the cameras go off and I get a chance to uh again, let's just say go to chance to uh again, let's just say go to chance to uh again, let's just say go to the West Wing. I'm not seeing people the West Wing. I'm not seeing people the West Wing. I'm not seeing people being picky, minor, petty. I see them being picky, minor, petty. I see them being picky, minor, petty. I see them worried about their legacy. worried about their legacy. worried about their legacy. the national security adviserss, their the national security adviserss, their the national security adviserss, their assistance. They're worrying about their assistance. They're worrying about their assistance. They're worrying about their legacy. Do they want to go down in in legacy. Do they want to go down in in legacy. Do they want to go down in in the history of American history as X, Y, the history of American history as X, Y, the history of American history as X, Y, or Z? And this is how humans are. It or Z? And this is how humans are. It or Z? And this is how humans are. It doesn't stop uh with like how much money doesn't stop uh with like how much money doesn't stop uh with like how much money do you have? It's what's going to happen do you have? It's what's going to happen do you have? It's what's going to happen with your legacy. with your legacy. with your legacy. >> So with that in mind, if you think Trump >> So with that in mind, if you think Trump >> So with that in mind, if you think Trump is legacy motivated, is legacy motivated, is legacy motivated, does that increase the does that increase the does that increase the >> in part? I want to be careful in part. >> in part? I want to be careful in part. >> in part? I want to be careful in part. it's always he can't be reelected. So it's always he can't be reelected. So it's always he can't be reelected. So I'm like that's not motivating him I'm like that's not motivating him I'm like that's not motivating him because you know you play differently if because you know you play differently if because you know you play differently if you think you can win a second term you think you can win a second term you think you can win a second term which I knew would be important to him. which I knew would be important to him. which I knew would be important to him. But the if he is legacy motivated now But the if he is legacy motivated now But the if he is legacy motivated now when you think about which direction when you think about which direction when you think about which direction he's going to grow go in it does appear he's going to grow go in it does appear he's going to grow go in it does appear on the balance of things that he's not on the balance of things that he's not on the balance of things that he's not going to want it to be left a mess. And going to want it to be left a mess. And going to want it to be left a mess. And the biggest mess that could really the biggest mess that could really the biggest mess that could really embarrass him and his legacy uh in with embarrass him and his legacy uh in with embarrass him and his legacy uh in with international is if Iran has a nuclear international is if Iran has a nuclear international is if Iran has a nuclear bomb and they detonate a test say next bomb and they detonate a test say next bomb and they detonate a test say next September. September. September. Let's just imagine what would happen Let's just imagine what would happen Let's just imagine what would happen next September. So people need to think next September. So people need to think next September. So people need to think about see the discussion of Iran and about see the discussion of Iran and about see the discussion of Iran and nuclear bombs here is not very nuclear bombs here is not very nuclear bombs here is not very strategic. It's to scare you. It's oh strategic. It's to scare you. It's oh strategic. It's to scare you. It's oh they're going to get a bomb and the they're going to get a bomb and the they're going to get a bomb and the first one's going to go on Tel Aviv. The first one's going to go on Tel Aviv. The first one's going to go on Tel Aviv. The second one's going to go on New York. I second one's going to go on New York. I second one's going to go on New York. I don't think that's the sequence. Why don't think that's the sequence. Why don't think that's the sequence. Why would they? Why? If they're willing to would they? Why? If they're willing to would they? Why? If they're willing to commit suicide to take out Tel Aviv, commit suicide to take out Tel Aviv, commit suicide to take out Tel Aviv, they don't need 16 bombs. Okay? If they don't need 16 bombs. Okay? If they don't need 16 bombs. Okay? If they're willing to have their entire they're willing to have their entire they're willing to have their entire population destroyed by they just need population destroyed by they just need population destroyed by they just need one bomb, take out Tel Aviv, they're one bomb, take out Tel Aviv, they're one bomb, take out Tel Aviv, they're done, right? That's not what's going on. done, right? That's not what's going on. done, right? That's not what's going on. They're following the North Korea plan. They're following the North Korea plan. They're following the North Korea plan. The North Korea plan that North Korea The North Korea plan that North Korea The North Korea plan that North Korea figured out when we went through this figured out when we went through this figured out when we went through this with North Korea in the '9s. Okay? the with North Korea in the '9s. Okay? the with North Korea in the '9s. Okay? the very same thing except we didn't do the very same thing except we didn't do the very same thing except we didn't do the bombing cuz cuz it was not going to we bombing cuz cuz it was not going to we bombing cuz cuz it was not going to we didn't get we we avoided the trap. What didn't get we we avoided the trap. What didn't get we we avoided the trap. What they want is multiple bombs at the same they want is multiple bombs at the same they want is multiple bombs at the same time. So what they want to do if they time. So what they want to do if they time. So what they want to do if they can do this is have say five bombs can do this is have say five bombs can do this is have say five bombs working at the same time and the first working at the same time and the first working at the same time and the first bomb goes off as a test in the bomb goes off as a test in the bomb goes off as a test in the mountains. In the mountains and then mountains. In the mountains and then mountains. In the mountains and then what do we say? Oh, they blew it. what do we say? Oh, they blew it. what do we say? Oh, they blew it. They're stupid. They blew their one test They're stupid. They blew their one test They're stupid. They blew their one test and then they do a second test. and then they do a second test. and then they do a second test. Still in their mountains. Okay. When we Still in their mountains. Okay. When we Still in their mountains. Okay. When we dropped the first bomb on Hiroshima, dropped the first bomb on Hiroshima, dropped the first bomb on Hiroshima, wasn't clear we had any more. When we wasn't clear we had any more. When we wasn't clear we had any more. When we dropped the second one, nobody needed to dropped the second one, nobody needed to dropped the second one, nobody needed to wait for a third or fourth. Nobody wait for a third or fourth. Nobody wait for a third or fourth. Nobody really we they knew more would come. You really we they knew more would come. You really we they knew more would come. You see what I mean? So with Iran the this see what I mean? So with Iran the this see what I mean? So with Iran the this is again we're talking about now um you is again we're talking about now um you is again we're talking about now um you know let's let's call it the brown belt know let's let's call it the brown belt know let's let's call it the brown belt or black belt strategy here that they or black belt strategy here that they or black belt strategy here that they are and notice they have been very smart are and notice they have been very smart are and notice they have been very smart in their escalation. in their escalation. in their escalation. What you would do is the North Korea What you would do is the North Korea What you would do is the North Korea strategy which is again you want strategy which is again you want strategy which is again you want multiple bombs and then you want to do multiple bombs and then you want to do multiple bombs and then you want to do some tests and even if one doesn't quite some tests and even if one doesn't quite some tests and even if one doesn't quite work you want to have another. You want work you want to have another. You want work you want to have another. You want to have multiple bombs so that you can to have multiple bombs so that you can to have multiple bombs so that you can do multiple tests. You see, and that is do multiple tests. You see, and that is do multiple tests. You see, and that is how North Korea basically stopped Trump how North Korea basically stopped Trump how North Korea basically stopped Trump trying to kill the leader. So notice trying to kill the leader. So notice trying to kill the leader. So notice that Trump wants to say it was just his that Trump wants to say it was just his that Trump wants to say it was just his winning personality because, you know, winning personality because, you know, winning personality because, you know, Trump is so charming here. But North Trump is so charming here. But North Trump is so charming here. But North Korea now has 60 working nuclear weapons Korea now has 60 working nuclear weapons Korea now has 60 working nuclear weapons as, you know, best we can tell. And the as, you know, best we can tell. And the as, you know, best we can tell. And the idea that uh we're going to start idea that uh we're going to start idea that uh we're going to start killing leaders in North Korea anytime killing leaders in North Korea anytime killing leaders in North Korea anytime soon, I'm not sure that's going to soon, I'm not sure that's going to soon, I'm not sure that's going to happen. happen. happen. >> They're kind of immune now, right? Well, >> They're kind of immune now, right? Well, >> They're kind of immune now, right? Well, and notice that Ukraine had a bunch of and notice that Ukraine had a bunch of and notice that Ukraine had a bunch of nuclear weapons in the 90s, gave them nuclear weapons in the 90s, gave them nuclear weapons in the 90s, gave them up, and there's a lot of people in up, and there's a lot of people in up, and there's a lot of people in Ukraine right now are saying, "Boy, I Ukraine right now are saying, "Boy, I Ukraine right now are saying, "Boy, I wish we had those nuclear weapons back wish we had those nuclear weapons back wish we had those nuclear weapons back or else we wouldn't be fighting this or else we wouldn't be fighting this or else we wouldn't be fighting this war." So, you start to look at the war." So, you start to look at the war." So, you start to look at the history. Why does America have nuclear history. Why does America have nuclear history. Why does America have nuclear weapons here? Are we an evil country and weapons here? Are we an evil country and weapons here? Are we an evil country and the reason we have is because we're the reason we have is because we're the reason we have is because we're evil? We want it for our security. So, evil? We want it for our security. So, evil? We want it for our security. So, why doesn't Iran want it for their why doesn't Iran want it for their why doesn't Iran want it for their security? So, this is the strategy part security? So, this is the strategy part security? So, this is the strategy part that we have to the politics. Steve and that we have to the politics. Steve and that we have to the politics. Steve and I keep trying to talk about. I keep trying to talk about. I keep trying to talk about. >> So you're saying your prediction is that >> So you're saying your prediction is that >> So you're saying your prediction is that we're going to move to stage three where we're going to move to stage three where we're going to move to stage three where Trump Trump Trump >> Okay, I'll go 7525. >> Okay, I'll go 7525. >> Okay, I'll go 7525. >> 75% which way? >> 75% which way? >> 75% which way? >> That we will put we will send in some >> That we will put we will send in some >> That we will put we will send in some ground forces to get that dispersed ground forces to get that dispersed ground forces to get that dispersed material. Um the only 25% would be if material. Um the only 25% would be if material. Um the only 25% would be if somehow magically the Iranians gave it somehow magically the Iranians gave it somehow magically the Iranians gave it to us. to us. to us. >> So >> So >> So >> So that's where the 25% comes from >> So that's where the 25% comes from >> So that's where the 25% comes from because there is some chance because there is some chance because there is some chance >> that there there's some I don't want to >> that there there's some I don't want to >> that there there's some I don't want to I mean we live in the real world um I mean we live in the real world um I mean we live in the real world um here. So I but I think the problem we're here. So I but I think the problem we're here. So I but I think the problem we're going to face is it's going to become going to face is it's going to become going to face is it's going to become more and if you're in Iran right now more and if you're in Iran right now more and if you're in Iran right now exactly why aren't you fashioning the exactly why aren't you fashioning the exactly why aren't you fashioning the nuclear weapon? We're already killing nuclear weapon? We're already killing nuclear weapon? We're already killing you. We can pause for months and say we you. We can pause for months and say we you. We can pause for months and say we won't kill you and then you wake up one won't kill you and then you wake up one won't kill you and then you wake up one day and you're dead. This we've done day and you're dead. This we've done day and you're dead. This we've done this movie now several times on Iran. this movie now several times on Iran. this movie now several times on Iran. Your best chance of survival is a Your best chance of survival is a Your best chance of survival is a nuclear weapon. And so we now know that, nuclear weapon. And so we now know that, nuclear weapon. And so we now know that, our intel knows that, Israel now knows our intel knows that, Israel now knows our intel knows that, Israel now knows it, we've taken these options. Uh so it, we've taken these options. Uh so it, we've taken these options. Uh so unless Trump will make a deal, that's unless Trump will make a deal, that's unless Trump will make a deal, that's that 25%. So I I think if he makes a that 25%. So I I think if he makes a that 25%. So I I think if he makes a deal, then there's a chance that Iran deal, then there's a chance that Iran deal, then there's a chance that Iran will go forward here. will go forward here. will go forward here. >> If the 75% path plays out, >> If the 75% path plays out, >> If the 75% path plays out, >> Yep. >> Yep. >> Yep. >> we put boots on the ground. >> we put boots on the ground. >> we put boots on the ground. >> Yep. >> Yep. >> Yep. >> What happens then? >> What happens then? >> What happens then? >> Now we're at stage three. Now we've >> Now we're at stage three. Now we've >> Now we're at stage three. Now we've moved to stage three because we have to moved to stage three because we have to moved to stage three because we have to search very not just so we will start by search very not just so we will start by search very not just so we will start by deploying ground forces in a very deploying ground forces in a very deploying ground forces in a very limited area. Say we're going to go to limited area. Say we're going to go to limited area. Say we're going to go to Esphon it's called that's that's the the Esphon it's called that's that's the the Esphon it's called that's that's the the uh do we have a uh do we have a uh do we have a >> I mean you could try and write on there >> I mean you could try and write on there >> I mean you could try and write on there does that work? does that work? does that work? >> Um the thing I'm trying to explain yeah >> Um the thing I'm trying to explain yeah >> Um the thing I'm trying to explain yeah assume this is Iran. Yeah. Okay. We will assume this is Iran. Yeah. Okay. We will assume this is Iran. Yeah. Okay. We will start by putting in um a small footprint start by putting in um a small footprint start by putting in um a small footprint and again we have several options here and again we have several options here and again we have several options here to do it. Um and so the hunt will be for to do it. Um and so the hunt will be for to do it. Um and so the hunt will be for the enriched material. But let's say the enriched material. But let's say the enriched material. But let's say that we even find it Stephen, how do we that we even find it Stephen, how do we that we even find it Stephen, how do we know that in the intervening almost a know that in the intervening almost a know that in the intervening almost a year since the bombing, 10 months since year since the bombing, 10 months since year since the bombing, 10 months since the bombing, how do we know they haven't the bombing, how do we know they haven't the bombing, how do we know they haven't enriched more somewhere else? Because enriched more somewhere else? Because enriched more somewhere else? Because this is what happened with um the WMD this is what happened with um the WMD this is what happened with um the WMD and Iraq and Sodom Hussein in the '9s and Iraq and Sodom Hussein in the '9s and Iraq and Sodom Hussein in the '9s through 2003. We had inspectors in. We through 2003. We had inspectors in. We through 2003. We had inspectors in. We could never be sure. There wasn't could never be sure. There wasn't could never be sure. There wasn't material. material. material. And the problem was over time the fear And the problem was over time the fear And the problem was over time the fear got worse and worse and worse. And the got worse and worse and worse. And the got worse and worse and worse. And the fear is a nuclear handoff or the fear is a nuclear handoff or the fear is a nuclear handoff or the radiological handoff. You hand off some radiological handoff. You hand off some radiological handoff. You hand off some of that material to Hezbollah to the of that material to Hezbollah to the of that material to Hezbollah to the Houthis. They Houthis. They Houthis. They >> who are Hezbollah and the Houthies? >> who are Hezbollah and the Houthies? >> who are Hezbollah and the Houthies? They're like They're like They're like >> they are terrorist groups. >> they are terrorist groups. >> they are terrorist groups. >> They we call them terrorist groups. Um >> They we call them terrorist groups. Um >> They we call them terrorist groups. Um and the uh and Hezbollah uh which is and the uh and Hezbollah uh which is and the uh and Hezbollah uh which is this famous terrorist group started in this famous terrorist group started in this famous terrorist group started in 1982. How did Hezbollah start? Where'd 1982. How did Hezbollah start? Where'd 1982. How did Hezbollah start? Where'd it come from? it come from? it come from? >> Is it the CIA again? >> Is it the CIA again? >> Is it the CIA again? >> No, it's Israel. Israel invades southern >> No, it's Israel. Israel invades southern >> No, it's Israel. Israel invades southern Lebanon in June of 82 with 78,000 combat Lebanon in June of 82 with 78,000 combat Lebanon in June of 82 with 78,000 combat soldiers. 3,000 tanks and armor soldiers. 3,000 tanks and armor soldiers. 3,000 tanks and armor vehicles. So, think about that. That's vehicles. So, think about that. That's vehicles. So, think about that. That's like invading Chicago with 78,000. So, like invading Chicago with 78,000. So, like invading Chicago with 78,000. So, just or LA with 78,000. just or LA with 78,000. just or LA with 78,000. Okay? So, they invade uh southern Okay? So, they invade uh southern Okay? So, they invade uh southern Lebanon with 78,000. Israel does. One Lebanon with 78,000. Israel does. One Lebanon with 78,000. Israel does. One month later, Hezbollah is born as month later, Hezbollah is born as month later, Hezbollah is born as resistance movement. So, Hezbollah was resistance movement. So, Hezbollah was resistance movement. So, Hezbollah was born out of resistance to Israel. They born out of resistance to Israel. They born out of resistance to Israel. They have hated Israel from the beginning have hated Israel from the beginning have hated Israel from the beginning because that's how they were born. You because that's how they were born. You because that's how they were born. You see? So what you have is you have a see? So what you have is you have a see? So what you have is you have a group that's hot been radical since and group that's hot been radical since and group that's hot been radical since and since 82 this has been going on since since 82 this has been going on since since 82 this has been going on since 82. 82. 82. Israel just can't put that country that Israel just can't put that country that Israel just can't put that country that Hezbollah group out of business. And Hezbollah group out of business. And Hezbollah group out of business. And what are they doing literally this week? what are they doing literally this week? what are they doing literally this week? They're trying to depopulate this They're trying to depopulate this They're trying to depopulate this Beirut, the city of Beirut. Because what Beirut, the city of Beirut. Because what Beirut, the city of Beirut. Because what happens when you go up against terrorist happens when you go up against terrorist happens when you go up against terrorist groups, which we haven't described, but groups, which we haven't described, but groups, which we haven't described, but the terrorist group here is like a group the terrorist group here is like a group the terrorist group here is like a group that's in a sea of people. Okay? and you that's in a sea of people. Okay? and you that's in a sea of people. Okay? and you keep saying all I want to do is get rid keep saying all I want to do is get rid keep saying all I want to do is get rid of that terrorist group. The problem is of that terrorist group. The problem is of that terrorist group. The problem is that in all that effort, military effort that in all that effort, military effort that in all that effort, military effort to get rid of the terrorist group, you to get rid of the terrorist group, you to get rid of the terrorist group, you do kill them, but they regenerate and do kill them, but they regenerate and do kill them, but they regenerate and they regenerate and they regenerate just they regenerate and they regenerate just they regenerate and they regenerate just as Hezbollah has for God 45 years as Hezbollah has for God 45 years as Hezbollah has for God 45 years almost. Okay. And so what do you then almost. Okay. And so what do you then almost. Okay. And so what do you then push to do? Get rid of all the people. push to do? Get rid of all the people. push to do? Get rid of all the people. >> So you think I'll just genocide? >> So you think I'll just genocide? >> So you think I'll just genocide? >> I don't want to use those terms because >> I don't want to use those terms because >> I don't want to use those terms because I've written about that. That's a that I've written about that. That's a that I've written about that. That's a that that has certain very spec. So that's a that has certain very spec. So that's a that has certain very spec. So that's a whole conversation here. But I just want whole conversation here. But I just want whole conversation here. But I just want to point out how is it that Israel got to point out how is it that Israel got to point out how is it that Israel got itself into the idea they were going to itself into the idea they were going to itself into the idea they were going to cleanse expel cleanse expel cleanse expel um large portions of the 2 million out um large portions of the 2 million out um large portions of the 2 million out of Gaza. That happened because they got of Gaza. That happened because they got of Gaza. That happened because they got into stage three of the escalation trap into stage three of the escalation trap into stage three of the escalation trap in Gaza. So this isn't just about in Gaza. So this isn't just about in Gaza. So this isn't just about America. So we're only talking about the America. So we're only talking about the America. So we're only talking about the escalation frameworks with respect to escalation frameworks with respect to escalation frameworks with respect to this one conflict. really it applies this one conflict. really it applies this one conflict. really it applies much more broadly. I've developed these much more broadly. I've developed these much more broadly. I've developed these since I taught for the Air Force because since I taught for the Air Force because since I taught for the Air Force because I needed to find a way to help our I needed to find a way to help our I needed to find a way to help our government, our military understand government, our military understand government, our military understand how the transition from the bombing or how the transition from the bombing or how the transition from the bombing or the military piece the military piece the military piece to the outcome. And what's in the middle to the outcome. And what's in the middle to the outcome. And what's in the middle is the military, the bombs change is the military, the bombs change is the military, the bombs change politics. They change politics in the politics. They change politics in the politics. They change politics in the enemy. They change politics for us. For enemy. They change politics for us. For enemy. They change politics for us. For us, we don't want to lose. And that's us, we don't want to lose. And that's us, we don't want to lose. And that's why we got stuck in a for in two forever why we got stuck in a for in two forever why we got stuck in a for in two forever wars. Um, and now we may well just get wars. Um, and now we may well just get wars. Um, and now we may well just get right back into another one. Not because right back into another one. Not because right back into another one. Not because Trump wants to. He's being sucked into Trump wants to. He's being sucked into Trump wants to. He's being sucked into it. it. it. >> So, what happens after stage three? >> So, what happens after stage three? >> So, what happens after stage three? >> After stage three, this is what America >> After stage three, this is what America >> After stage three, this is what America has faced in Vietnam. And President has faced in Vietnam. And President has faced in Vietnam. And President Biden faced this in spades here. When Biden faced this in spades here. When Biden faced this in spades here. When you try to pull out after you're in you try to pull out after you're in you try to pull out after you're in stage three and end these ongoing stage three and end these ongoing stage three and end these ongoing conflicts here, usually it ends poorly conflicts here, usually it ends poorly conflicts here, usually it ends poorly for your legacy. And you saw that with for your legacy. And you saw that with for your legacy. And you saw that with Lyndon Johnson. And you saw that with um Lyndon Johnson. And you saw that with um Lyndon Johnson. And you saw that with um President Biden. President Bid actually President Biden. President Bid actually President Biden. President Bid actually President Trump is the one who was President Trump is the one who was President Trump is the one who was negotiating with the Taliban to pull negotiating with the Taliban to pull negotiating with the Taliban to pull out. out. out. >> But President Trump wouldn't leave. Not >> But President Trump wouldn't leave. Not >> But President Trump wouldn't leave. Not leave. He didn't leave before. Who who leave. He didn't leave before. Who who leave. He didn't leave before. Who who did he hand it off to? He handed it off did he hand it off to? He handed it off did he hand it off to? He handed it off to Biden. Biden pulled out. And what has to Biden. Biden pulled out. And what has to Biden. Biden pulled out. And what has Biden's legacy been? It's been negative Biden's legacy been? It's been negative Biden's legacy been? It's been negative ever since. If you look at his opinion ever since. If you look at his opinion ever since. If you look at his opinion polls, pres President Biden, you will polls, pres President Biden, you will polls, pres President Biden, you will see he was riding high until he withdrew see he was riding high until he withdrew see he was riding high until he withdrew from Afghanistan and he never recovered. from Afghanistan and he never recovered. from Afghanistan and he never recovered. Yes, inflation hurt too. The bigger hit Yes, inflation hurt too. The bigger hit Yes, inflation hurt too. The bigger hit was the Afghanistan problem. And this is was the Afghanistan problem. And this is was the Afghanistan problem. And this is where this is why President Trump is where this is why President Trump is where this is why President Trump is really stuck. You see, he's on that really stuck. You see, he's on that really stuck. You see, he's on that horns of the dilemma. Does he want to horns of the dilemma. Does he want to horns of the dilemma. Does he want to accept the short-term price, which is accept the short-term price, which is accept the short-term price, which is real, or does he want to go and double real, or does he want to go and double real, or does he want to go and double down? And then you face the potential down? And then you face the potential down? And then you face the potential long-term price of becoming LBJ long-term price of becoming LBJ long-term price of becoming LBJ and President Biden. and President Biden. and President Biden. >> This company that I've just invested in >> This company that I've just invested in >> This company that I've just invested in is grown like crazy. I want to be the is grown like crazy. I want to be the is grown like crazy. 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So, on WhatsApp, it knows how I am a So, on WhatsApp, it knows how I am a So, on WhatsApp, it knows how I am a little bit more casual. On email, a little bit more casual. On email, a little bit more casual. On email, a little bit more professional. And also, little bit more professional. And also, little bit more professional. And also, there's this really interesting thing there's this really interesting thing there's this really interesting thing they've just done. I can create little they've just done. I can create little they've just done. I can create little phrases to automatically do the work for phrases to automatically do the work for phrases to automatically do the work for me. I can just say Jack's LinkedIn and me. I can just say Jack's LinkedIn and me. 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And Whisper Flow is frankly becoming the worstkept secret in frankly becoming the worstkept secret in frankly becoming the worstkept secret in business, productivity, and business, productivity, and business, productivity, and entrepreneurship. Check it out now at entrepreneurship. Check it out now at entrepreneurship. Check it out now at Whisper Flow spelled w Whisper Flow spelled w Whisper Flow spelled w lw.ai/ lw.ai/ lw.ai/ Steven. It will be a game changer for Steven. It will be a game changer for Steven. It will be a game changer for you. you. you. We have finally caved in. So many of you We have finally caved in. So many of you We have finally caved in. So many of you have asked us if we could bundle the have asked us if we could bundle the have asked us if we could bundle the conversation cards with the 1% diary. conversation cards with the 1% diary. conversation cards with the 1% diary. For those of you that don't know, every For those of you that don't know, every For those of you that don't know, every single time a guest sits here with me in single time a guest sits here with me in single time a guest sits here with me in the chair, they leave a question in the the chair, they leave a question in the the chair, they leave a question in the diary of a CEO and then I ask that diary of a CEO and then I ask that diary of a CEO and then I ask that question to the next guest. We don't question to the next guest. We don't question to the next guest. We don't release those questions in any release those questions in any release those questions in any environment other than on these environment other than on these environment other than on these incredible conversation cards. These incredible conversation cards. These incredible conversation cards. 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So many of you have asked if it was possible to buy both at the if it was possible to buy both at the if it was possible to buy both at the same time, especially people in big same time, especially people in big same time, especially people in big companies. So, what we've done is we've companies. So, what we've done is we've companies. So, what we've done is we've bundled them together and you can buy bundled them together and you can buy bundled them together and you can buy both at the same time. And if you want both at the same time. And if you want both at the same time. And if you want to drive connection and instill habit to drive connection and instill habit to drive connection and instill habit change in your company, head to the change in your company, head to the change in your company, head to the diary.com to inquire and our team will diary.com to inquire and our team will diary.com to inquire and our team will be in touch. be in touch. be in touch. >> I have to ask then, you know, you said >> I have to ask then, you know, you said >> I have to ask then, you know, you said when you're in the White House, they're when you're in the White House, they're when you're in the White House, they're very smart people. very smart people. very smart people. >> Yeah, pretty smart. Presumably Trump >> Yeah, pretty smart. Presumably Trump >> Yeah, pretty smart. Presumably Trump knew this stuff or someone around him knew this stuff or someone around him knew this stuff or someone around him knew that by the way when you drop bombs knew that by the way when you drop bombs knew that by the way when you drop bombs these sort of very specific bombs we these sort of very specific bombs we these sort of very specific bombs we have now that can hit a hit a very have now that can hit a hit a very have now that can hit a hit a very narrow target and take out a leader um narrow target and take out a leader um narrow target and take out a leader um you get into an escalation trap. Surely you get into an escalation trap. Surely you get into an escalation trap. Surely he knew this. he knew this. he knew this. >> I believe I believe General Kaine told >> I believe I believe General Kaine told >> I believe I believe General Kaine told him almost this this in so many words. I him almost this this in so many words. I him almost this this in so many words. I believe and I don't have the exact believe and I don't have the exact believe and I don't have the exact evidence for it but we have some evidence for it but we have some evidence for it but we have some inklings of it. inklings of it. inklings of it. >> What do you think he thought was going >> What do you think he thought was going >> What do you think he thought was going to happen? I think he I I've described to happen? I think he I I've described to happen? I think he I I've described Trump um as the ultimate chaos kid. Trump um as the ultimate chaos kid. Trump um as the ultimate chaos kid. There are people who thrive in chaos. There are people who thrive in chaos. There are people who thrive in chaos. They feel the best when they're in a They feel the best when they're in a They feel the best when they're in a chaotic situation. And I think that he chaotic situation. And I think that he chaotic situation. And I think that he um believes he can navigate the chaos um believes he can navigate the chaos um believes he can navigate the chaos better than anybody else. So what I want better than anybody else. So what I want better than anybody else. So what I want to the the answer to the question I was to the the answer to the question I was to the the answer to the question I was looking for is what did he think was looking for is what did he think was looking for is what did he think was going to happen? Did he think I'll drop going to happen? Did he think I'll drop going to happen? Did he think I'll drop these bombs, Hermione will be out, these bombs, Hermione will be out, these bombs, Hermione will be out, someone else will come in, then we'll someone else will come in, then we'll someone else will come in, then we'll negotiate with that guy and then we'll negotiate with that guy and then we'll negotiate with that guy and then we'll get a better deal? I think that's not get a better deal? I think that's not get a better deal? I think that's not quite I think that's too specific. quite I think that's too specific. quite I think that's too specific. People keep looking for that. In my People keep looking for that. In my People keep looking for that. In my experience here, it also um is that's experience here, it also um is that's experience here, it also um is that's too narrow of a way to understand what I too narrow of a way to understand what I too narrow of a way to understand what I think happened here. And again, we're think happened here. And again, we're think happened here. And again, we're reading quite a bit into very few tea reading quite a bit into very few tea reading quite a bit into very few tea leaves here because this will come out leaves here because this will come out leaves here because this will come out over time. But um I believe that what over time. But um I believe that what over time. But um I believe that what you're seeing with President Trump is he you're seeing with President Trump is he you're seeing with President Trump is he likes to do what's called mixing it up. likes to do what's called mixing it up. likes to do what's called mixing it up. He wants to get the chaos going and then He wants to get the chaos going and then He wants to get the chaos going and then he um he reads the chaos very well and he um he reads the chaos very well and he um he reads the chaos very well and and when it's um a media storm, man, and when it's um a media storm, man, and when it's um a media storm, man, there's very few people that have beaten there's very few people that have beaten there's very few people that have beaten him. Just think about that. That's why him. Just think about that. That's why him. Just think about that. That's why he's president twice. He's he's beaten he's president twice. He's he's beaten he's president twice. He's he's beaten quite a few black belts at this, right? quite a few black belts at this, right? quite a few black belts at this, right? But this is a different story. So if you But this is a different story. So if you But this is a different story. So if you take that same MO and you apply it to take that same MO and you apply it to take that same MO and you apply it to political violence, now you have these political violence, now you have these political violence, now you have these other actors. You have this other set of other actors. You have this other set of other actors. You have this other set of momentum. you have Israel uh playing momentum. you have Israel uh playing momentum. you have Israel uh playing this big role. You have the Iranians this big role. You have the Iranians this big role. You have the Iranians playing a big role. You're suddenly uh playing a big role. You're suddenly uh playing a big role. You're suddenly uh now have more players that can trap you now have more players that can trap you now have more players that can trap you in the chaos. And this is I think what in the chaos. And this is I think what in the chaos. And this is I think what has happened. Um now with Venezuela, he has happened. Um now with Venezuela, he has happened. Um now with Venezuela, he also went through the first stage of the also went through the first stage of the also went through the first stage of the trap. And notice that with Venezuela, he trap. And notice that with Venezuela, he trap. And notice that with Venezuela, he just said, "Oh yeah, we're just going to just said, "Oh yeah, we're just going to just said, "Oh yeah, we're just going to forget about developing the oil." No forget about developing the oil." No forget about developing the oil." No second stage. Okay. So in in with second stage. Okay. So in in with second stage. Okay. So in in with Venezuela, there's a reason why that has Venezuela, there's a reason why that has Venezuela, there's a reason why that has paused. It's because he didn't go to paused. It's because he didn't go to paused. It's because he didn't go to stage two because the oil company said, stage two because the oil company said, stage two because the oil company said, "We're not going to die for you to build "We're not going to die for you to build "We're not going to die for you to build that oil." So he is basically um he took that oil." So he is basically um he took that oil." So he is basically um he took out one person, just literally one out one person, just literally one out one person, just literally one person. That person's not even dead yet. person. That person's not even dead yet. person. That person's not even dead yet. And he's not really developing any of And he's not really developing any of And he's not really developing any of those oil fields in Venezuela. They're those oil fields in Venezuela. They're those oil fields in Venezuela. They're just not being developed. just not being developed. just not being developed. >> He said he has a good relationship with >> He said he has a good relationship with >> He said he has a good relationship with the Venezuelan government. Now the the Venezuelan government. Now the the Venezuelan government. Now the >> as long as because he's not doing any >> as long as because he's not doing any >> as long as because he's not doing any the the Venezuelan government, he's the the Venezuelan government, he's the the Venezuelan government, he's leaving them in place. He's basically leaving them in place. He's basically leaving them in place. He's basically declaring victory and moving on. declaring victory and moving on. declaring victory and moving on. >> He removed Maduro, kept the others in >> He removed Maduro, kept the others in >> He removed Maduro, kept the others in and it sounds and it sounds and it sounds >> and kept the regime. >> and kept the regime. >> and kept the regime. >> It sounds like that might have somewhat >> It sounds like that might have somewhat >> It sounds like that might have somewhat inspired his move to Bomaran because it inspired his move to Bomaran because it inspired his move to Bomaran because it appears on the surface that Venezuela appears on the surface that Venezuela appears on the surface that Venezuela kind of didn't go too badly. It kind of kind of didn't go too badly. It kind of kind of didn't go too badly. It kind of was a uh political victory. was a uh political victory. was a uh political victory. >> Chaos Kida chaos >> Chaos Kida chaos >> Chaos Kida chaos >> snatched him out of bed with his snatch. >> snatched him out of bed with his snatch. >> snatched him out of bed with his snatch. But then he stopped. So this would be But then he stopped. So this would be But then he stopped. So this would be the equivalent would be last June. So the equivalent would be last June. So the equivalent would be last June. So last June, okay, he went through stage last June, okay, he went through stage last June, okay, he went through stage one and he tried to stop. What made the one and he tried to stop. What made the one and he tried to stop. What made the difference here? It wasn't Trump. It was difference here? It wasn't Trump. It was difference here? It wasn't Trump. It was the intel he got from Netanyahu. The the intel he got from Netanyahu. The the intel he got from Netanyahu. The phone call from Netanyahu, which is uh phone call from Netanyahu, which is uh phone call from Netanyahu, which is uh President Trump getting ready. We're President Trump getting ready. We're President Trump getting ready. We're about to assassinate the supreme leader about to assassinate the supreme leader about to assassinate the supreme leader and about 20 of his associate the other and about 20 of his associate the other and about 20 of his associate the other leaders here. you decide how you want to leaders here. you decide how you want to leaders here. you decide how you want to handle this, but we're we're taking off. handle this, but we're we're taking off. handle this, but we're we're taking off. And so that is that did not happen with And so that is that did not happen with And so that is that did not happen with with uh with um uh the Maduro regime. So with uh with um uh the Maduro regime. So with uh with um uh the Maduro regime. So just imagine that there was another just imagine that there was another just imagine that there was another country that had after Trump took out country that had after Trump took out country that had after Trump took out Maduro decided they were going to keep Maduro decided they were going to keep Maduro decided they were going to keep assassinating u the regime in uh assassinating u the regime in uh assassinating u the regime in uh Venezuela. Now you would be in a Venezuela. Now you would be in a Venezuela. Now you would be in a different story. different story. different story. >> You made a quite famous prediction, >> You made a quite famous prediction, >> You made a quite famous prediction, professor. You predicted in 2009 that professor. You predicted in 2009 that professor. You predicted in 2009 that America's era as the world's only America's era as the world's only America's era as the world's only superpower was ending. superpower was ending. superpower was ending. >> Oh yes, and I think that is true. We >> Oh yes, and I think that is true. We >> Oh yes, and I think that is true. We haven't talked about China, but I haven't talked about China, but I haven't talked about China, but I believe that since Trump has come into believe that since Trump has come into believe that since Trump has come into office, he's making China number one. office, he's making China number one. office, he's making China number one. His tariffs have done nothing but um uh His tariffs have done nothing but um uh His tariffs have done nothing but um uh help China. Uh China's been on charm help China. Uh China's been on charm help China. Uh China's been on charm offensive since the tariffs have have offensive since the tariffs have have offensive since the tariffs have have been and and they're picking up all the been and and they're picking up all the been and and they're picking up all the pieces. I was just spent two weeks in pieces. I was just spent two weeks in pieces. I was just spent two weeks in China in June while we were bombing um China in June while we were bombing um China in June while we were bombing um Iran. I said I had to learn how to do Iran. I said I had to learn how to do Iran. I said I had to learn how to do social media. I toured Advanced social media. I toured Advanced social media. I toured Advanced Industries in China for two solid weeks. Industries in China for two solid weeks. Industries in China for two solid weeks. One of the most amazing visits uh trips One of the most amazing visits uh trips One of the most amazing visits uh trips I've ever had in my whole career and it I've ever had in my whole career and it I've ever had in my whole career and it was stunning. So Stephen, since co was stunning. So Stephen, since co was stunning. So Stephen, since co almost nobody has gone to uh China. Now almost nobody has gone to uh China. Now almost nobody has gone to uh China. Now if they have they've gone to Beijing or if they have they've gone to Beijing or if they have they've gone to Beijing or Shanghai. They haven't gone to Wuhan. Shanghai. They haven't gone to Wuhan. Shanghai. They haven't gone to Wuhan. They haven't gone to Shenshen. Visited They haven't gone to Shenshen. Visited They haven't gone to Shenshen. Visited the BYD uh electric car factories. Um the BYD uh electric car factories. Um the BYD uh electric car factories. Um seeing the robots that are now doing the seeing the robots that are now doing the seeing the robots that are now doing the metallergy and you can't see it very metallergy and you can't see it very metallergy and you can't see it very well on the web because China's keeping well on the web because China's keeping well on the web because China's keeping it to themselves. They don't want to it to themselves. They don't want to it to themselves. They don't want to brag about it. They're going they're brag about it. They're going they're brag about it. They're going they're motoring ahead. So Wuhan, to give you an motoring ahead. So Wuhan, to give you an motoring ahead. So Wuhan, to give you an example, Wuhan is kind of like example, Wuhan is kind of like example, Wuhan is kind of like Pittsburgh. It's a bigger version of Pittsburgh. It's a bigger version of Pittsburgh. It's a bigger version of Pittsburgh. It's an old steel area. Pittsburgh. It's an old steel area. Pittsburgh. It's an old steel area. That's not Wuhan today. Wuhan today is That's not Wuhan today. Wuhan today is That's not Wuhan today. Wuhan today is the AI. It's it's developing not just a the AI. It's it's developing not just a the AI. It's it's developing not just a robotic company. They're uplifting 9 robotic company. They're uplifting 9 robotic company. They're uplifting 9 million people in Wuhan. Their uh million people in Wuhan. Their uh million people in Wuhan. Their uh medicine is improved. Their medicine is improved. Their medicine is improved. Their infrastructure is improved. They have infrastructure is improved. They have infrastructure is improved. They have more construction jobs than ever before more construction jobs than ever before more construction jobs than ever before because they have to build so much to because they have to build so much to because they have to build so much to uplift the whole 9 million people. This uplift the whole 9 million people. This uplift the whole 9 million people. This is what Pittsburgh should have been and is what Pittsburgh should have been and is what Pittsburgh should have been and hasn't been. And I know I'm from Western hasn't been. And I know I'm from Western hasn't been. And I know I'm from Western Pennsylvania. It's heartbreaking to me Pennsylvania. It's heartbreaking to me Pennsylvania. It's heartbreaking to me to watch what's happened to Pittsburgh to watch what's happened to Pittsburgh to watch what's happened to Pittsburgh over the last 30 or 40 years. Wuhan, over the last 30 or 40 years. Wuhan, over the last 30 or 40 years. Wuhan, exactly the same trajectory. An old exactly the same trajectory. An old exactly the same trajectory. An old steel uh um city is now one of the lead steel uh um city is now one of the lead steel uh um city is now one of the lead areas here in they have a robotic areas here in they have a robotic areas here in they have a robotic Silicon Valley there that I visited um Silicon Valley there that I visited um Silicon Valley there that I visited um and so forth. and so forth. and so forth. >> And why does this matter? Why does it >> And why does this matter? Why does it >> And why does this matter? Why does it matter if the US are no longer the matter if the US are no longer the matter if the US are no longer the world's superpower? What what then does world's superpower? What what then does world's superpower? What what then does history tell us is the consequence of history tell us is the consequence of history tell us is the consequence of that? that? that? >> The consequence is first of all you get >> The consequence is first of all you get >> The consequence is first of all you get enormous tension here uh for violence. enormous tension here uh for violence. enormous tension here uh for violence. So when you see big hegemonic shifts So when you see big hegemonic shifts So when you see big hegemonic shifts >> hegemonic >> hegemonic >> hegemonic >> uh that means when one leader the the >> uh that means when one leader the the >> uh that means when one leader the the world's number one becomes uh replaced world's number one becomes uh replaced world's number one becomes uh replaced by another bad things happen. This is by another bad things happen. This is by another bad things happen. This is what happened how you got the wars what happened how you got the wars what happened how you got the wars between Britain and France when they between Britain and France when they between Britain and France when they were fighting theirs wars. This is how were fighting theirs wars. This is how were fighting theirs wars. This is how you got world war essentially world war you got world war essentially world war you got world war essentially world war I because of the the rise and fall of I because of the the rise and fall of I because of the the rise and fall of Germany versus uh uh Russia versus Germany versus uh uh Russia versus Germany versus uh uh Russia versus Britain. So these rising and fall they Britain. So these rising and fall they Britain. So these rising and fall they make a huge difference. Doesn't always make a huge difference. Doesn't always make a huge difference. Doesn't always happen. The one time it was peaceful was happen. The one time it was peaceful was happen. The one time it was peaceful was when America replaced Britain as number when America replaced Britain as number when America replaced Britain as number one. So just think about that. But other one. So just think about that. But other one. So just think about that. But other times have been very tense. times have been very tense. times have been very tense. >> So how does China feel that the US are >> So how does China feel that the US are >> So how does China feel that the US are now at war with the Middle East? So, now at war with the Middle East? So, now at war with the Middle East? So, what's interesting is to get ready for what's interesting is to get ready for what's interesting is to get ready for coming on here. I listened to the All-In coming on here. I listened to the All-In coming on here. I listened to the All-In podcast, and I hope that's okay to talk podcast, and I hope that's okay to talk podcast, and I hope that's okay to talk about somebody else's podcast. I love about somebody else's podcast. I love about somebody else's podcast. I love that. that. that. >> I think they're brilliant, by the way. I >> I think they're brilliant, by the way. I >> I think they're brilliant, by the way. I love it. But what they said just in the love it. But what they said just in the love it. But what they said just in the most recent is that that Trump's playing most recent is that that Trump's playing most recent is that that Trump's playing a game for China. What they said is a game for China. What they said is a game for China. What they said is China shaking in its boots and that what China shaking in its boots and that what China shaking in its boots and that what this is about is uh it's it's kind of this is about is uh it's it's kind of this is about is uh it's it's kind of Venezuela plus Iran is all about to Venezuela plus Iran is all about to Venezuela plus Iran is all about to cause shei to be shaking in his boots in cause shei to be shaking in his boots in cause shei to be shaking in his boots in in April so that um he will somehow make in April so that um he will somehow make in April so that um he will somehow make some bigger deal with Trump. I think some bigger deal with Trump. I think some bigger deal with Trump. I think this is just wrong. I think that it may this is just wrong. I think that it may this is just wrong. I think that it may be that there's some uh uh you know, be that there's some uh uh you know, be that there's some uh uh you know, China does absolutely buy 90% of Iran's China does absolutely buy 90% of Iran's China does absolutely buy 90% of Iran's oil. There's no we're not disagreeing oil. There's no we're not disagreeing oil. There's no we're not disagreeing with the facts of the matter. It's the with the facts of the matter. It's the with the facts of the matter. It's the interpretation and the consequences for interpretation and the consequences for interpretation and the consequences for who's going to be number one down the who's going to be number one down the who's going to be number one down the road. So my assessment here is China uh road. So my assessment here is China uh road. So my assessment here is China uh is probably thrilled that we're on the is probably thrilled that we're on the is probably thrilled that we're on the verge of getting into another quagmire verge of getting into another quagmire verge of getting into another quagmire in the Middle East and that they would in the Middle East and that they would in the Middle East and that they would gladly give up. They have about 20% of gladly give up. They have about 20% of gladly give up. They have about 20% of their GDP that turn energy not GDP 20% their GDP that turn energy not GDP 20% their GDP that turn energy not GDP 20% of their energy it's a much smaller of their energy it's a much smaller of their energy it's a much smaller fraction of their GDP that turns on the fraction of their GDP that turns on the fraction of their GDP that turns on the oil issue. uh most of their energy is oil issue. uh most of their energy is oil issue. uh most of their energy is not generated through through oil. And not generated through through oil. And not generated through through oil. And so I think they would really if they had so I think they would really if they had so I think they would really if they had to give all of the Middle Eastern oil up to give all of the Middle Eastern oil up to give all of the Middle Eastern oil up to suck us in to a another forever war to suck us in to a another forever war to suck us in to a another forever war with Iran that would go on for years and with Iran that would go on for years and with Iran that would go on for years and years. Oh my goodness gracious. Because years. Oh my goodness gracious. Because years. Oh my goodness gracious. Because they see themselves as growing through they see themselves as growing through they see themselves as growing through Asia and spreading their wings through Asia and spreading their wings through Asia and spreading their wings through Asia. And so to get us pinned down in Asia. And so to get us pinned down in Asia. And so to get us pinned down in the Middle East with an even bigger the Middle East with an even bigger the Middle East with an even bigger problem than we had with Iraq, this is problem than we had with Iraq, this is problem than we had with Iraq, this is mana from heaven for China. And that's mana from heaven for China. And that's mana from heaven for China. And that's what I they told that's what I saw when what I they told that's what I saw when what I they told that's what I saw when I was there. I was there. I was there. >> If I was Putin or if I was running >> If I was Putin or if I was running >> If I was Putin or if I was running China, based on everything you've said China, based on everything you've said China, based on everything you've said and based on everything I know, I would and based on everything I know, I would and based on everything I know, I would really want this war to go on for a long really want this war to go on for a long really want this war to go on for a long time. time. time. >> Oh, for sure. >> Oh, for sure. >> Oh, for sure. >> I'd really so I'd really be helping >> I'd really so I'd really be helping >> I'd really so I'd really be helping Iran, you know, prolong this thing. And Iran, you know, prolong this thing. And Iran, you know, prolong this thing. And also because Russia are in their own also because Russia are in their own also because Russia are in their own situation at the moment with Ukraine. situation at the moment with Ukraine. situation at the moment with Ukraine. So, it's quite a distraction from So, it's quite a distraction from So, it's quite a distraction from whatever Putin's objectives are in whatever Putin's objectives are in whatever Putin's objectives are in Ukraine. No one's really talking about Ukraine. No one's really talking about Ukraine. No one's really talking about Ukraine this week. Ukraine this week. Ukraine this week. >> And it's bad for the Ukrainians because >> And it's bad for the Ukrainians because >> And it's bad for the Ukrainians because what's happening is by by by the little what's happening is by by by the little what's happening is by by by the little bit that Putin has gotten himself bit that Putin has gotten himself bit that Putin has gotten himself involved here, there is a chance he set involved here, there is a chance he set involved here, there is a chance he set the stage for a deal, which is again the stage for a deal, which is again the stage for a deal, which is again America stops the intel to the America stops the intel to the America stops the intel to the Ukrainians, if Russia will stop the Ukrainians, if Russia will stop the Ukrainians, if Russia will stop the intel to Iran. That is much much much to intel to Iran. That is much much much to intel to Iran. That is much much much to Putin's advantage with Ukraine. So, I Putin's advantage with Ukraine. So, I Putin's advantage with Ukraine. So, I think that you have a situation here, think that you have a situation here, think that you have a situation here, Stephen, where Putin, it's not so much Stephen, where Putin, it's not so much Stephen, where Putin, it's not so much he's he's itching to get in the fight, he's he's itching to get in the fight, he's he's itching to get in the fight, is he's trying to do it in ways that he is he's trying to do it in ways that he is he's trying to do it in ways that he gets something out of it in his in his gets something out of it in his in his gets something out of it in his in his relations war with Ukraine. relations war with Ukraine. relations war with Ukraine. >> Think about that with President Xi. I >> Think about that with President Xi. I >> Think about that with President Xi. I don't think the Chinese want to get in don't think the Chinese want to get in don't think the Chinese want to get in the fight. I think, in fact, right now, the fight. I think, in fact, right now, the fight. I think, in fact, right now, if I'm if I'm assessing this correctly, if I'm if I'm assessing this correctly, if I'm if I'm assessing this correctly, they're probably not wanting to get in they're probably not wanting to get in they're probably not wanting to get in the way of an enemy who's shooting the way of an enemy who's shooting the way of an enemy who's shooting himself in both feet. So right now, himself in both feet. So right now, himself in both feet. So right now, America's damaging itself a lot more America's damaging itself a lot more America's damaging itself a lot more than China could. And if China inserts than China could. And if China inserts than China could. And if China inserts itself, there's a very good chance then itself, there's a very good chance then itself, there's a very good chance then that would help Trump again pull a that would help Trump again pull a that would help Trump again pull a rabbit out of a hat. I don't think they rabbit out of a hat. I don't think they rabbit out of a hat. I don't think they want to do that. I think right now you want to do that. I think right now you want to do that. I think right now you just look at this from we're running out just look at this from we're running out just look at this from we're running out of what's called standoff PGMs. of what's called standoff PGMs. of what's called standoff PGMs. Remember, Secretary Heg said, "Well, Remember, Secretary Heg said, "Well, Remember, Secretary Heg said, "Well, yeah, okay, we're running out of yeah, okay, we're running out of yeah, okay, we're running out of standoff PGMs, but we got to do standoff PGMs, but we got to do standoff PGMs, but we got to do something from the from the the the something from the from the the the something from the from the the the bombs that we can drop more over bombs that we can drop more over bombs that we can drop more over country." Well, that's the problem for a country." Well, that's the problem for a country." Well, that's the problem for a problem for Taiwan. If we're going to problem for Taiwan. If we're going to problem for Taiwan. If we're going to defend Taiwan, we've got to do this with defend Taiwan, we've got to do this with defend Taiwan, we've got to do this with long standoff precision weapons. And we long standoff precision weapons. And we long standoff precision weapons. And we all everybody who studies this knows all everybody who studies this knows all everybody who studies this knows that. So, if we're really running low on that. So, if we're really running low on that. So, if we're really running low on standoff precision weapons, she's just standoff precision weapons, she's just standoff precision weapons, she's just licking his chops thinking, "My licking his chops thinking, "My licking his chops thinking, "My goodness, how much better does this goodness, how much better does this goodness, how much better does this get?" get?" get?" >> If Trump was listening, >> If Trump was listening, >> If Trump was listening, probably not the case. I think he just probably not the case. I think he just probably not the case. I think he just watches CNN and Fox News. watches CNN and Fox News. watches CNN and Fox News. >> Um, but if Trump was listening, what >> Um, but if Trump was listening, what >> Um, but if Trump was listening, what would you say to him? would you say to him? would you say to him? >> What I would tell him is take the deal. >> What I would tell him is take the deal. >> What I would tell him is take the deal. I would say stop right now and do I would say stop right now and do I would say stop right now and do everything possible to go back to the everything possible to go back to the everything possible to go back to the deal you rejected the day before you deal you rejected the day before you deal you rejected the day before you started bombing. And what your goal started bombing. And what your goal started bombing. And what your goal should be is to get as much of the 60% should be is to get as much of the 60% should be is to get as much of the 60% enriched uranium out of the country as enriched uranium out of the country as enriched uranium out of the country as possible. If uh you could also get the possible. If uh you could also get the possible. If uh you could also get the 20% enriched uranium out, that would be 20% enriched uranium out, that would be 20% enriched uranium out, that would be good, too. But you're probably not going good, too. But you're probably not going good, too. But you're probably not going to get as good a deal. Uh because the to get as good a deal. Uh because the to get as good a deal. Uh because the supreme leader you were dealing with is supreme leader you were dealing with is supreme leader you were dealing with is gone and you now have a much tougher. So gone and you now have a much tougher. So gone and you now have a much tougher. So you might have to accept President Trump you might have to accept President Trump you might have to accept President Trump a worse deal. a worse deal. a worse deal. >> Are we just kicking the can down the >> Are we just kicking the can down the >> Are we just kicking the can down the road here? Because if you're an Iranian, road here? Because if you're an Iranian, road here? Because if you're an Iranian, like you've said, you've watched bombs like you've said, you've watched bombs like you've said, you've watched bombs drop. You've you've realized that the drop. You've you've realized that the drop. You've you've realized that the reason why you are such a target is reason why you are such a target is reason why you are such a target is because you don't have these nuclear because you don't have these nuclear because you don't have these nuclear weapons. So is there not an element weapons. So is there not an element weapons. So is there not an element where Iran getting nuclear weapons is um where Iran getting nuclear weapons is um where Iran getting nuclear weapons is um inevitable in some way? So Stephen, this inevitable in some way? So Stephen, this inevitable in some way? So Stephen, this is the myth of 100% security. So we see is the myth of 100% security. So we see is the myth of 100% security. So we see this in not just America but in lots of this in not just America but in lots of this in not just America but in lots of uh conflicts in history where the idea uh conflicts in history where the idea uh conflicts in history where the idea that you don't have 100% security leads that you don't have 100% security leads that you don't have 100% security leads you to essentially do things that look you to essentially do things that look you to essentially do things that look like suicide for fear of death. So so we like suicide for fear of death. So so we like suicide for fear of death. So so we know that that there is a long-term know that that there is a long-term know that that there is a long-term problem out there. And sometimes a problem out there. And sometimes a problem out there. And sometimes a really good solution is to freeze it for really good solution is to freeze it for really good solution is to freeze it for 20 years. just freeze it for 20 years. 20 years. just freeze it for 20 years. 20 years. just freeze it for 20 years. And you know what? It's you're right. And you know what? It's you're right. And you know what? It's you're right. You didn't permanently take it off the You didn't permanently take it off the You didn't permanently take it off the table. But if you can freeze a problem table. But if you can freeze a problem table. But if you can freeze a problem for 20 years, that's actually a lot of for 20 years, that's actually a lot of for 20 years, that's actually a lot of you might get lucky. You might get you might get lucky. You might get you might get lucky. You might get something good like the Soviet Union something good like the Soviet Union something good like the Soviet Union might just fall apart on you, you know, might just fall apart on you, you know, might just fall apart on you, you know, out of the blue. It might just fall out of the blue. It might just fall out of the blue. It might just fall apart on you. And not because you did apart on you. And not because you did apart on you. And not because you did anything. It's just because something anything. It's just because something anything. It's just because something else changed in the world. So the way to else changed in the world. So the way to else changed in the world. So the way to think about this, Stephen, is not this think about this, Stephen, is not this think about this, Stephen, is not this idea that we're going to take an action idea that we're going to take an action idea that we're going to take an action and have 100% security. This is how big and have 100% security. This is how big and have 100% security. This is how big powers lose wars. powers lose wars. powers lose wars. Big powers are up against these little Big powers are up against these little Big powers are up against these little countries. And think about how often countries. And think about how often countries. And think about how often they lose. We lose to Vietnam. That's they lose. We lose to Vietnam. That's they lose. We lose to Vietnam. That's how I got into this business in the how I got into this business in the how I got into this business in the first place. I wanted to understand first place. I wanted to understand first place. I wanted to understand that. And so this idea of the search for that. And so this idea of the search for that. And so this idea of the search for perfect security is often getting us perfect security is often getting us perfect security is often getting us into trouble. into trouble. into trouble. kick a can down. You You're right. It's kick a can down. You You're right. It's kick a can down. You You're right. It's only 20 years. I'll take that. That's only 20 years. I'll take that. That's only 20 years. I'll take that. That's better than where we are right now. better than where we are right now. better than where we are right now. Professor Robert Pap of all the things Professor Robert Pap of all the things Professor Robert Pap of all the things that we've talked about um that we've talked about um that we've talked about um >> which has been a wonderful conversation >> which has been a wonderful conversation >> which has been a wonderful conversation by the way by the way by the way >> and very diverse but really focused on >> and very diverse but really focused on >> and very diverse but really focused on this subject of what's going on in the this subject of what's going on in the this subject of what's going on in the world at the moment with Iran and Trump world at the moment with Iran and Trump world at the moment with Iran and Trump and America as decline. What is the and America as decline. What is the and America as decline. What is the thing that we should have talked about thing that we should have talked about thing that we should have talked about that we didn't talk about? The big that we didn't talk about? The big that we didn't talk about? The big thing, well, we're finally getting to it thing, well, we're finally getting to it thing, well, we're finally getting to it at the end, is the real consequence of at the end, is the real consequence of at the end, is the real consequence of what President Trump has done since what President Trump has done since what President Trump has done since coming into office. uh the real coming into office. uh the real coming into office. uh the real consequence of the tariffs, the real consequence of the tariffs, the real consequence of the tariffs, the real consequence of not just uh threatening consequence of not just uh threatening consequence of not just uh threatening um uh discussion of Greenland, but but um uh discussion of Greenland, but but um uh discussion of Greenland, but but becoming very aggressive with our becoming very aggressive with our becoming very aggressive with our European allies on Greenland, being very European allies on Greenland, being very European allies on Greenland, being very aggressive to the point of um um a aggressive to the point of um um a aggressive to the point of um um a taking out a leader from Venezuela, taking out a leader from Venezuela, taking out a leader from Venezuela, which is uh in our Western Hemisphere. which is uh in our Western Hemisphere. which is uh in our Western Hemisphere. So, it's creating what this is really So, it's creating what this is really So, it's creating what this is really doing is it's threatening America's doing is it's threatening America's doing is it's threatening America's primacy. So I am a big believer that primacy. So I am a big believer that primacy. So I am a big believer that America should be the strongest most America should be the strongest most America should be the strongest most secure state on the planet. I think that secure state on the planet. I think that secure state on the planet. I think that is good for us. is good for us. is good for us. That means that it does make it is That means that it does make it is That means that it does make it is valuable to be the top dog to be the valuable to be the top dog to be the valuable to be the top dog to be the number one strongest economic military number one strongest economic military number one strongest economic military power. But in order to do that you have power. But in order to do that you have power. But in order to do that you have to be the world's number one economy for to be the world's number one economy for to be the world's number one economy for real. And with $40 trillion in debt, um real. And with $40 trillion in debt, um real. And with $40 trillion in debt, um with uh us pushing away our trading with uh us pushing away our trading with uh us pushing away our trading partners, with us uh engaging in hostile partners, with us uh engaging in hostile partners, with us uh engaging in hostile actions here which are scaring the rest actions here which are scaring the rest actions here which are scaring the rest of the world to further drift away from of the world to further drift away from of the world to further drift away from us and maybe not side with China, but be us and maybe not side with China, but be us and maybe not side with China, but be neutral. Oh my goodness gracious. And neutral. Oh my goodness gracious. And neutral. Oh my goodness gracious. And and again, as I said before, China is and again, as I said before, China is and again, as I said before, China is motoring ahead on the AI revolution. motoring ahead on the AI revolution. motoring ahead on the AI revolution. We're talking AI, but are we really We're talking AI, but are we really We're talking AI, but are we really doing Wuhan? Are we up to Wuhan? I think doing Wuhan? Are we up to Wuhan? I think doing Wuhan? Are we up to Wuhan? I think it would be interesting for uh for uh it would be interesting for uh for uh it would be interesting for uh for uh folks to go to Wuhan um and actually folks to go to Wuhan um and actually folks to go to Wuhan um and actually visit uh or go to Senchan uh and visit visit uh or go to Senchan uh and visit visit uh or go to Senchan uh and visit um or go to Hang Cho and visit and see um or go to Hang Cho and visit and see um or go to Hang Cho and visit and see where uh Alibaba is and see uh that it's where uh Alibaba is and see uh that it's where uh Alibaba is and see uh that it's it's not just one company here. It's not it's not just one company here. It's not it's not just one company here. It's not just deep seek that there's clusters just deep seek that there's clusters just deep seek that there's clusters that are being built that are uplifting that are being built that are uplifting that are being built that are uplifting 10 million people at a swath. And my 10 million people at a swath. And my 10 million people at a swath. And my goodness, why aren't we doing that in goodness, why aren't we doing that in goodness, why aren't we doing that in America? We certainly need that in the America? We certainly need that in the America? We certainly need that in the restaurant belt. restaurant belt. restaurant belt. >> We're too distracted. >> We're too distracted. >> We're too distracted. >> We're too distracted, which is what I'm >> We're too distracted, which is what I'm >> We're too distracted, which is what I'm trying to say is to China's advantage. trying to say is to China's advantage. trying to say is to China's advantage. And I think this is the real long-term And I think this is the real long-term And I think this is the real long-term price, which is are we actually eroding price, which is are we actually eroding price, which is are we actually eroding our position as the world's number one? our position as the world's number one? our position as the world's number one? And I think our primacy is in is in And I think our primacy is in is in And I think our primacy is in is in danger. danger. danger. >> Professor Robert Pap, we have a closing >> Professor Robert Pap, we have a closing >> Professor Robert Pap, we have a closing tradition on this podcast where the last tradition on this podcast where the last tradition on this podcast where the last guest leaves a question for the next guest leaves a question for the next guest leaves a question for the next guest, not knowing who they're leaving guest, not knowing who they're leaving guest, not knowing who they're leaving it for. Ah, it for. Ah, it for. Ah, >> the question left for you is what is the >> the question left for you is what is the >> the question left for you is what is the prediction you have for the future that prediction you have for the future that prediction you have for the future that most people do not want to hear? >> Well, this is going to lead into the >> Well, this is going to lead into the conversation. So, I have a book coming conversation. So, I have a book coming conversation. So, I have a book coming out in September called Our own Worst out in September called Our own Worst out in September called Our own Worst Enemies. As bad as all this problem is, Enemies. As bad as all this problem is, Enemies. As bad as all this problem is, Stephen, as bad as it is, I have spent Stephen, as bad as it is, I have spent Stephen, as bad as it is, I have spent the last several years focusing on the last several years focusing on the last several years focusing on what's happening with political violence what's happening with political violence what's happening with political violence in the United States and its in the United States and its in the United States and its normalization. normalization. normalization. And the most the biggest danger that we And the most the biggest danger that we And the most the biggest danger that we face, even bigger than Iran and all the face, even bigger than Iran and all the face, even bigger than Iran and all the problems we've just talked about, is the problems we've just talked about, is the problems we've just talked about, is the normalization of political violence in normalization of political violence in normalization of political violence in our own country. And by political our own country. And by political our own country. And by political violence, you mean violence, you mean violence, you mean >> I'm I'm talking about in the last 10 >> I'm I'm talking about in the last 10 >> I'm I'm talking about in the last 10 years, we have seen a surge of violent years, we have seen a surge of violent years, we have seen a surge of violent riots. We have seen a surge of political riots. We have seen a surge of political riots. We have seen a surge of political assassinations assassinations assassinations that we haven't seen since the 1960s. On that we haven't seen since the 1960s. On that we haven't seen since the 1960s. On top of that, we've just had Operation top of that, we've just had Operation top of that, we've just had Operation Midway Blitz in my city, Chicago. That Midway Blitz in my city, Chicago. That Midway Blitz in my city, Chicago. That is the surge of militarized um enforce is the surge of militarized um enforce is the surge of militarized um enforce immigration enforcement. Oh, immigration enforcement. Oh, immigration enforcement. Oh, >> which surged ice which surged into >> which surged ice which surged into >> which surged ice which surged into neighborhoods over over almost 300 neighborhoods over over almost 300 neighborhoods over over almost 300 times. times. times. >> Crazy. >> Crazy. >> Crazy. >> Not just a small. And then what happened >> Not just a small. And then what happened >> Not just a small. And then what happened after they left um uh Chicago is they after they left um uh Chicago is they after they left um uh Chicago is they did even more of that in Minneapolis. So did even more of that in Minneapolis. So did even more of that in Minneapolis. So these this trajectory these this trajectory these this trajectory Stephen that we're on where we are Stephen that we're on where we are Stephen that we're on where we are seeing the incredible normalization of seeing the incredible normalization of seeing the incredible normalization of political violence and it's happening on political violence and it's happening on political violence and it's happening on both the right and the left. It's not both the right and the left. It's not both the right and the left. It's not I'm not trying to make moral equivalence I'm not trying to make moral equivalence I'm not trying to make moral equivalence but it is h and the book will explain but it is h and the book will explain but it is h and the book will explain this is probably the greatest danger this is probably the greatest danger this is probably the greatest danger that we face because if we are our own that we face because if we are our own that we face because if we are our own worst enemies. Think of what that means worst enemies. Think of what that means worst enemies. Think of what that means for us being that great power that that for us being that great power that that for us being that great power that that is so important for us and the great is so important for us and the great is so important for us and the great future we want for our families and our future we want for our families and our future we want for our families and our our our communities here. We are in our our communities here. We are in our our communities here. We are in danger of becoming our own worst danger of becoming our own worst danger of becoming our own worst enemies. Not for a day, not for a month, enemies. Not for a day, not for a month, enemies. Not for a day, not for a month, but for years. but for years. but for years. >> Professor, thank you so much. Um, if >> Professor, thank you so much. Um, if >> Professor, thank you so much. Um, if anyone wants to go and read more about anyone wants to go and read more about anyone wants to go and read more about many of the things we've talked about many of the things we've talked about many of the things we've talked about today, where do they go? Substack. I'll today, where do they go? Substack. I'll today, where do they go? Substack. I'll link below. link below. link below. >> I would I would go you can read my books >> I would I would go you can read my books >> I would I would go you can read my books on it. You can get them from Amazon. I on it. You can get them from Amazon. I on it. You can get them from Amazon. I would go to Substack. And then, and would go to Substack. And then, and would go to Substack. And then, and that's the escalation trap. Um, and I that's the escalation trap. Um, and I that's the escalation trap. Um, and I would also just be aware that there will would also just be aware that there will would also just be aware that there will be uh more discussion of political be uh more discussion of political be uh more discussion of political violence. So, it's not just political violence. So, it's not just political violence. So, it's not just political violence abroad and it's not just violence abroad and it's not just violence abroad and it's not just political violence at home. It is both political violence at home. It is both political violence at home. It is both happening at the same time. happening at the same time. happening at the same time. >> Professor, thank you so much. >> Professor, thank you so much. >> Professor, thank you so much. >> Thank you very much. Really, really >> Thank you very much. Really, really >> Thank you very much. Really, really enjoyed it. Thank you. enjoyed it. Thank you. enjoyed it. Thank you. >> Thank you so much. That was fantastic. >> Thank you so much. That was fantastic. >> Thank you so much. That was fantastic. >> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm >> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm >> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm where they know exactly what video you where they know exactly what video you where they know exactly what video you would like to watch next based on AI and would like to watch next based on AI and would like to watch next based on AI and all of your viewing behavior. And the all of your viewing behavior. And the all of your viewing behavior. 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