Ray Dalio: "AI Is Eating Everything - and It Might Eat Itself"

Ray Dalia, welcome back to the All-In Ray Dalia, welcome back to the All-In podcast. Third Times the Charm. Thanks podcast. Third Times the Charm. Thanks podcast. Third Times the Charm. Thanks for being here. for being here. for being here. >> It's always a always a blast to be here. >> It's always a always a blast to be here. >> It's always a always a blast to be here. Thank you for having me. Thank you for having me. Thank you for having me. >> The last conversation we had was so >> The last conversation we had was so >> The last conversation we had was so popular and it was so timely because it popular and it was so timely because it popular and it was so timely because it was just a few days actually after the was just a few days actually after the was just a few days actually after the inauguration of President Trump and you inauguration of President Trump and you inauguration of President Trump and you had provided some very kind of preient had provided some very kind of preient had provided some very kind of preient outlooks for the administration that I outlooks for the administration that I outlooks for the administration that I think we all thought would be very think we all thought would be very think we all thought would be very helpful to get on the record. At the helpful to get on the record. At the helpful to get on the record. At the time you had highlighted and and as you time you had highlighted and and as you time you had highlighted and and as you have been for some time this great debt have been for some time this great debt have been for some time this great debt cycle we're in the fiscal and monetary cycle we're in the fiscal and monetary cycle we're in the fiscal and monetary policy issues that are driving that debt policy issues that are driving that debt policy issues that are driving that debt cycle and provided some cycle and provided some cycle and provided some input that if we were able to cut our input that if we were able to cut our input that if we were able to cut our deficit to GDP to roughly 3% deficit to GDP to roughly 3% deficit to GDP to roughly 3% we may have a shot at a smoother we may have a shot at a smoother we may have a shot at a smoother transition here. Today, the CBO transition here. Today, the CBO transition here. Today, the CBO estimates that the 2026 deficit to GDP estimates that the 2026 deficit to GDP estimates that the 2026 deficit to GDP is about 6%. >> If you were building a global financial >> If you were building a global financial system from first principles today, you system from first principles today, you system from first principles today, you wouldn't build it on 50-year-old legacy wouldn't build it on 50-year-old legacy wouldn't build it on 50-year-old legacy rails. You'd build airwallings. It's the rails. You'd build airwallings. It's the rails. You'd build airwallings. It's the single platform for global accounts, single platform for global accounts, single platform for global accounts, cards, and payments that treats the cards, and payments that treats the cards, and payments that treats the entire world like a local market. Stop entire world like a local market. Stop entire world like a local market. Stop paying the legacy tax and start building paying the legacy tax and start building paying the legacy tax and start building the future at airwallix.com/allin. the future at airwallix.com/allin. the future at airwallix.com/allin. Airwallix. Build the future. So the Airwallix. Build the future. So the Airwallix. Build the future. So the first question I have for you looking first question I have for you looking first question I have for you looking back on the past year of the back on the past year of the back on the past year of the administration and the actions of administration and the actions of administration and the actions of Congress and the economy. Are we on a Congress and the economy. Are we on a Congress and the economy. Are we on a good path? Are we on no different a path good path? Are we on no different a path good path? Are we on no different a path than we were say a year ago? Are we than we were say a year ago? Are we than we were say a year ago? Are we moving too slowly? I studied these big moving too slowly? I studied these big moving too slowly? I studied these big cycles in history going back 500 years cycles in history going back 500 years cycles in history going back 500 years and there are five big forces that are and there are five big forces that are and there are five big forces that are intertwined to determine the answer to intertwined to determine the answer to intertwined to determine the answer to your question which is uh there's the your question which is uh there's the your question which is uh there's the debt money one and I I'll take you into debt money one and I I'll take you into debt money one and I I'll take you into that in a minute. Um there is the um that in a minute. Um there is the um that in a minute. Um there is the um domestic domestic domestic gaps, the wealth and values gaps that gaps, the wealth and values gaps that gaps, the wealth and values gaps that are causing irreconcilable differences are causing irreconcilable differences are causing irreconcilable differences between um the left and the right that between um the left and the right that between um the left and the right that is affecting how u taxes, democracy and is affecting how u taxes, democracy and is affecting how u taxes, democracy and everything works. There's the everything works. There's the everything works. There's the international great power conflict, the international great power conflict, the international great power conflict, the classic rising of a great power, classic rising of a great power, classic rising of a great power, challenging existing great power and challenging existing great power and challenging existing great power and changing the international world order. changing the international world order. changing the international world order. Then there's technology. All through Then there's technology. All through Then there's technology. All through these cycles there have been technology. these cycles there have been technology. these cycles there have been technology. And then there's uh acts of nature, And then there's uh acts of nature, And then there's uh acts of nature, droughts, floods, and pandemics. So um droughts, floods, and pandemics. So um droughts, floods, and pandemics. So um and when we think of orders, we're and when we think of orders, we're and when we think of orders, we're talking about there's always a monetary talking about there's always a monetary talking about there's always a monetary order. And all monetary orders have order. And all monetary orders have order. And all monetary orders have broken down for the same reasons. All uh broken down for the same reasons. All uh broken down for the same reasons. All uh political orders, domestic political political orders, domestic political political orders, domestic political orders, they all always change in the orders, they all always change in the orders, they all always change in the United States less. So we have 250 years United States less. So we have 250 years United States less. So we have 250 years here, but um that they always change. here, but um that they always change. here, but um that they always change. There was one civil war in there. And There was one civil war in there. And There was one civil war in there. And then the uh but internationally they then the uh but internationally they then the uh but internationally they always change. All orders change. and always change. All orders change. and always change. All orders change. and the international geopolitical order the international geopolitical order the international geopolitical order going from a um a unil a multilateral to going from a um a unil a multilateral to going from a um a unil a multilateral to a unilateral world order is changing and a unilateral world order is changing and a unilateral world order is changing and certainly technolog is changing. Okay. certainly technolog is changing. Okay. certainly technolog is changing. Okay. So getting that fact that they're all on So getting that fact that they're all on So getting that fact that they're all on there now I'll go down to explain the there now I'll go down to explain the there now I'll go down to explain the government's finances and answer your government's finances and answer your government's finances and answer your question. The economics of a country are question. The economics of a country are question. The economics of a country are basically the same as the economics of a basically the same as the economics of a basically the same as the economics of a company or an individual except the company or an individual except the company or an individual except the government has a ability to print money. government has a ability to print money. government has a ability to print money. Look at it like a company or like your Look at it like a company or like your Look at it like a company or like your own. Basically, it's projected to spend own. Basically, it's projected to spend own. Basically, it's projected to spend about $7 trillion, about $7 trillion, about $7 trillion, take in about $5 trillion. So, it's take in about $5 trillion. So, it's take in about $5 trillion. So, it's running a 40% deficit, 40% of its running a 40% deficit, 40% of its running a 40% deficit, 40% of its spending. It's been running deficits for spending. It's been running deficits for spending. It's been running deficits for a long time. So, it has a debt that is a long time. So, it has a debt that is a long time. So, it has a debt that is 600% six times the amount of money that 600% six times the amount of money that 600% six times the amount of money that it takes in. And we can project that it takes in. And we can project that it takes in. And we can project that number. Um the problem with debt cycles number. Um the problem with debt cycles number. Um the problem with debt cycles and you could see them transpire. and you could see them transpire. and you could see them transpire. They're um almost like the circulatory They're um almost like the circulatory They're um almost like the circulatory system of the body. the capital markets system of the body. the capital markets system of the body. the capital markets uh bring credit to different parts of uh bring credit to different parts of uh bring credit to different parts of the economy and if that credit is used the economy and if that credit is used the economy and if that credit is used to be productive and produces an income to be productive and produces an income to be productive and produces an income that pays for the debt service, it's a that pays for the debt service, it's a that pays for the debt service, it's a healthy process. But what happens is healthy process. But what happens is healthy process. But what happens is that if the um income, the debt service that if the um income, the debt service that if the um income, the debt service grows relative to the income because grows relative to the income because grows relative to the income because it's not paying for it, it's like uh it's not paying for it, it's like uh it's not paying for it, it's like uh plaque in the system uh growing up and plaque in the system uh growing up and plaque in the system uh growing up and it squeezes out spending. And so we now it squeezes out spending. And so we now it squeezes out spending. And so we now have that $2 trillion deficit. Half of have that $2 trillion deficit. Half of have that $2 trillion deficit. Half of that is interest payments plus we have that is interest payments plus we have that is interest payments plus we have to roll over $9 trillion of debt that to roll over $9 trillion of debt that to roll over $9 trillion of debt that has been accumulated and is maturing. has been accumulated and is maturing. has been accumulated and is maturing. Okay. So now if you were to look at a Okay. So now if you were to look at a Okay. So now if you were to look at a company like that or an individual like company like that or an individual like company like that or an individual like that you have that problem. So as a that you have that problem. So as a that you have that problem. So as a handy number 3% of GDP would sort of handy number 3% of GDP would sort of handy number 3% of GDP would sort of stabilize the situation. Very unhealthy stabilize the situation. Very unhealthy stabilize the situation. Very unhealthy condition. It's not just unhealthy condition. It's not just unhealthy condition. It's not just unhealthy because it's squeezing out those because it's squeezing out those because it's squeezing out those spendings, but also because there's a spendings, but also because there's a spendings, but also because there's a supply and a demand. In other words, you supply and a demand. In other words, you supply and a demand. In other words, you have to roll over the $9 trillion of have to roll over the $9 trillion of have to roll over the $9 trillion of debt that's coming due and you have to debt that's coming due and you have to debt that's coming due and you have to sell two trillion more, something like sell two trillion more, something like sell two trillion more, something like that. Okay. So, now you go to the buyers that. Okay. So, now you go to the buyers that. Okay. So, now you go to the buyers and the buyers, who are the buyers? and the buyers, who are the buyers? and the buyers, who are the buyers? There are some domestic buyers and There are some domestic buyers and There are some domestic buyers and they're foreign buyers. about a third of they're foreign buyers. about a third of they're foreign buyers. about a third of foreign buyers and now it's a riskier foreign buyers and now it's a riskier foreign buyers and now it's a riskier situation from their point of view. It's situation from their point of view. It's situation from their point of view. It's riskier. First of all, it's a lot to riskier. First of all, it's a lot to riskier. First of all, it's a lot to acquire. They dollar denominated debt is acquire. They dollar denominated debt is acquire. They dollar denominated debt is already a large percentage of their already a large percentage of their already a large percentage of their portfolio, larger than it would be if portfolio, larger than it would be if portfolio, larger than it would be if just decided on on a prudent basis. But just decided on on a prudent basis. But just decided on on a prudent basis. But also we have political geopolitical also we have political geopolitical also we have political geopolitical risks that also extend to possibly the risks that also extend to possibly the risks that also extend to possibly the risks that the debtor and the creditor risks that the debtor and the creditor risks that the debtor and the creditor will have a conflict. You could imagine will have a conflict. You could imagine will have a conflict. You could imagine that with China. You could imagine that that with China. You could imagine that that with China. You could imagine that with Europe even. And you know Europeans with Europe even. And you know Europeans with Europe even. And you know Europeans could wonder whether they will get could wonder whether they will get could wonder whether they will get sanctioned. In other words, the debt sanctioned. In other words, the debt sanctioned. In other words, the debt service payments might not be made as a service payments might not be made as a service payments might not be made as a sanction. and the United States has to sanction. and the United States has to sanction. and the United States has to worry about whether it's going to bring worry about whether it's going to bring worry about whether it's going to bring in that money. Now, the things that I'm in that money. Now, the things that I'm in that money. Now, the things that I'm describing have happened repeatedly describing have happened repeatedly describing have happened repeatedly through history. So, in other words, I'm through history. So, in other words, I'm through history. So, in other words, I'm not just making this stop stuff up. If not just making this stop stuff up. If not just making this stop stuff up. If you were to see uh particularly, you you were to see uh particularly, you you were to see uh particularly, you know, in the 1929 to 45 period, you saw know, in the 1929 to 45 period, you saw know, in the 1929 to 45 period, you saw this dynamic. You saw it before. So this dynamic. You saw it before. So this dynamic. You saw it before. So there is this financial piece which in there is this financial piece which in there is this financial piece which in and of itself is not healthy for the US and of itself is not healthy for the US and of itself is not healthy for the US government government government and it's um but it's also problematic and it's um but it's also problematic and it's um but it's also problematic because of the other factors uh because of the other factors uh because of the other factors uh compounding the problem. compounding the problem. compounding the problem. >> You highlighted this problem. >> You highlighted this problem. >> You highlighted this problem. You provided a diagnosis that if we You provided a diagnosis that if we You provided a diagnosis that if we could get to 3% we could soften the could get to 3% we could soften the could get to 3% we could soften the effect but it hasn't happened. We were effect but it hasn't happened. We were effect but it hasn't happened. We were all very hopeful last year around this all very hopeful last year around this all very hopeful last year around this time when Elon Musk decided to lead time when Elon Musk decided to lead time when Elon Musk decided to lead Doge, the Department of Government Doge, the Department of Government Doge, the Department of Government Efficiency. He was going to go in and Efficiency. He was going to go in and Efficiency. He was going to go in and there were going to be these kind of big there were going to be these kind of big there were going to be these kind of big sweeping changes to reduce government sweeping changes to reduce government sweeping changes to reduce government spending, find fraud, waste, and abuse spending, find fraud, waste, and abuse spending, find fraud, waste, and abuse and so on. Did Doge fail and so on. Did Doge fail and so on. Did Doge fail because the actions that were taken were because the actions that were taken were because the actions that were taken were wrong or did Doge fail because the wrong or did Doge fail because the wrong or did Doge fail because the system itself cannot be changed at this system itself cannot be changed at this system itself cannot be changed at this point in the cycle that there's too much point in the cycle that there's too much point in the cycle that there's too much capital flowing. The economy is too capital flowing. The economy is too capital flowing. The economy is too dependent on it. There are too many dependent on it. There are too many dependent on it. There are too many individuals and businesses are dependent individuals and businesses are dependent individuals and businesses are dependent on it and it's structurally impossible on it and it's structurally impossible on it and it's structurally impossible to pull our way out of it. I mean, does to pull our way out of it. I mean, does to pull our way out of it. I mean, does Doge tell us something about what's Doge tell us something about what's Doge tell us something about what's possible at this stage? possible at this stage? possible at this stage? >> Yeah, you're talking about uh taking an >> Yeah, you're talking about uh taking an >> Yeah, you're talking about uh taking an inefficient government inefficient government inefficient government and making it efficient, okay? And having to do it quick because okay? And having to do it quick because there are elections and if people don't there are elections and if people don't there are elections and if people don't like it, then you know, you lose your like it, then you know, you lose your like it, then you know, you lose your mandate. mandate. mandate. And in a um society in which no matter And in a um society in which no matter And in a um society in which no matter what you do, you're criticized and and what you do, you're criticized and and what you do, you're criticized and and torn down. So you know we have the fact torn down. So you know we have the fact torn down. So you know we have the fact of uh the question of does democracy and of uh the question of does democracy and of uh the question of does democracy and our system lend itself toward the sort our system lend itself toward the sort our system lend itself toward the sort of um executive leadership that both of um executive leadership that both of um executive leadership that both makes it efficient and makes it makes it efficient and makes it makes it efficient and makes it acceptable for all people. You know acceptable for all people. You know acceptable for all people. You know there was a lot of uh cutbacks there was a lot of uh cutbacks there was a lot of uh cutbacks um you know things like school lunch um you know things like school lunch um you know things like school lunch programs and things you know um and then programs and things you know um and then programs and things you know um and then trying to do it surgically. So it's um trying to do it surgically. So it's um trying to do it surgically. So it's um how do you do that effectively quickly how do you do that effectively quickly how do you do that effectively quickly in a manner that uh doesn't uh cause so in a manner that uh doesn't uh cause so in a manner that uh doesn't uh cause so much controversy much controversy much controversy that the government falls. So if you that the government falls. So if you that the government falls. So if you look at history, that's why I deal with look at history, that's why I deal with look at history, that's why I deal with the political. the political. the political. If you deal with history and you deal If you deal with history and you deal If you deal with history and you deal just even common sense, think, you know, just even common sense, think, you know, just even common sense, think, you know, like u are you going to have the like u are you going to have the like u are you going to have the executive leadership that's going to be executive leadership that's going to be executive leadership that's going to be able to make this satisfactory with most able to make this satisfactory with most able to make this satisfactory with most people? Um, you know, and do that people? Um, you know, and do that people? Um, you know, and do that quickly. I think that's that's a hell of quickly. I think that's that's a hell of quickly. I think that's that's a hell of a hell of a trick to pull off, a hell of a trick to pull off, a hell of a trick to pull off, >> right? So it might just be structurally >> right? So it might just be structurally >> right? So it might just be structurally it's a little difficult at this stage. it's a little difficult at this stage. it's a little difficult at this stage. >> What an understatement. Structurally a >> What an understatement. Structurally a >> What an understatement. Structurally a little difficult at this stage. little difficult at this stage. little difficult at this stage. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Well, there was another big news story >> Well, there was another big news story >> Well, there was another big news story recently that there may be quite a lot recently that there may be quite a lot recently that there may be quite a lot of fraud going on with public dollars in of fraud going on with public dollars in of fraud going on with public dollars in Minnesota that there are these daycarees Minnesota that there are these daycarees Minnesota that there are these daycarees that don't exist and billions of dollars that don't exist and billions of dollars that don't exist and billions of dollars are flowing to individuals to run these are flowing to individuals to run these are flowing to individuals to run these daycarees. And now there's a lot of this daycarees. And now there's a lot of this daycarees. And now there's a lot of this sort of citizen journalism going on sort of citizen journalism going on sort of citizen journalism going on across the country that federal spending across the country that federal spending across the country that federal spending is actually being fraudulently abused. is actually being fraudulently abused. is actually being fraudulently abused. Do you think that this is a symptom of Do you think that this is a symptom of Do you think that this is a symptom of this stage of the cycle? What's your this stage of the cycle? What's your this stage of the cycle? What's your view on how this relates to this problem view on how this relates to this problem view on how this relates to this problem that we're generally kind of talking that we're generally kind of talking that we're generally kind of talking about? about? about? >> Yeah, it's both the stage of the cycle >> Yeah, it's both the stage of the cycle >> Yeah, it's both the stage of the cycle and if you're going to have something and if you're going to have something and if you're going to have something wellmanaged, are you going to have the wellmanaged, are you going to have the wellmanaged, are you going to have the government well manage it? I mean, how government well manage it? I mean, how government well manage it? I mean, how how how well managed, you know, go to how how well managed, you know, go to how how well managed, you know, go to the Department of Motor Vehicles for the Department of Motor Vehicles for the Department of Motor Vehicles for your your your it's so big and complex and such a, it's so big and complex and such a, it's so big and complex and such a, you know, such a mess. Like, what you you know, such a mess. Like, what you you know, such a mess. Like, what you know, like when when you think, is this know, like when when you think, is this know, like when when you think, is this a surprise to you that there's all of a surprise to you that there's all of a surprise to you that there's all of this stuff going on all over the place this stuff going on all over the place this stuff going on all over the place in terms of inefficiency? Is that a in terms of inefficiency? Is that a in terms of inefficiency? Is that a surprise to you? surprise to you? surprise to you? >> No. Uh but you know I guess the question >> No. Uh but you know I guess the question >> No. Uh but you know I guess the question is are people waking up to this? Because is are people waking up to this? Because is are people waking up to this? Because last time we spoke you highlighted that last time we spoke you highlighted that last time we spoke you highlighted that a piece of your portfolio was in gold. a piece of your portfolio was in gold. a piece of your portfolio was in gold. You had invested quite a bit in gold. You had invested quite a bit in gold. You had invested quite a bit in gold. Since we spoke I think gold has climbed Since we spoke I think gold has climbed Since we spoke I think gold has climbed from 2900 an ounce to 5200 an ounce. from 2900 an ounce to 5200 an ounce. from 2900 an ounce to 5200 an ounce. What has happened with gold over the What has happened with gold over the What has happened with gold over the last year? Is it that markets are waking last year? Is it that markets are waking last year? Is it that markets are waking up to the point in the cycle that we're up to the point in the cycle that we're up to the point in the cycle that we're in that you've been highlighting for a in that you've been highlighting for a in that you've been highlighting for a number of years at this point? Or is it number of years at this point? Or is it number of years at this point? Or is it because China is structurally abandoning because China is structurally abandoning because China is structurally abandoning the US dollar and treasuries and moving the US dollar and treasuries and moving the US dollar and treasuries and moving more into gold and other central banks more into gold and other central banks more into gold and other central banks are moving into gold? Is it because are moving into gold? Is it because are moving into gold? Is it because individual speculators and market individual speculators and market individual speculators and market participants are getting bubbly with participants are getting bubbly with participants are getting bubbly with gold? What's your view on what's gone on gold? What's your view on what's gone on gold? What's your view on what's gone on with gold and how it relates to the with gold and how it relates to the with gold and how it relates to the market's acknowledgement of the stage market's acknowledgement of the stage market's acknowledgement of the stage that we're in? It's the big cycle. And that we're in? It's the big cycle. And that we're in? It's the big cycle. And what what what you have to understand is what what what you have to understand is what what what you have to understand is that gold is not a precious metal that's that gold is not a precious metal that's that gold is not a precious metal that's speculated on like most people have come speculated on like most people have come speculated on like most people have come to think of it as. Um it is um the most to think of it as. Um it is um the most to think of it as. Um it is um the most established money that it's the second established money that it's the second established money that it's the second largest reserve country currency that largest reserve country currency that largest reserve country currency that central banks hold. And so what we've central banks hold. And so what we've central banks hold. And so what we've seen is for various reasons that I seen is for various reasons that I seen is for various reasons that I pretty much covered the economic, the pretty much covered the economic, the pretty much covered the economic, the supply demand, the uh political, the supply demand, the uh political, the supply demand, the uh political, the geopolitical, for those reasons, central geopolitical, for those reasons, central geopolitical, for those reasons, central banks themselves have acquired banks themselves have acquired banks themselves have acquired gold to build that up and individuals gold to build that up and individuals gold to build that up and individuals and others are looking for an and others are looking for an and others are looking for an alternative money. The question is what alternative money. The question is what alternative money. The question is what is money? So when we're thinking about is money? So when we're thinking about is money? So when we're thinking about this, money mechanistically, money is this, money mechanistically, money is this, money mechanistically, money is debt. What I mean by that is that if debt. What I mean by that is that if debt. What I mean by that is that if you're holding money, you're holding it you're holding money, you're holding it you're holding money, you're holding it in the form of a debt instrument. in the form of a debt instrument. in the form of a debt instrument. And if you um are holding a debt And if you um are holding a debt And if you um are holding a debt instrument, what you're getting is a instrument, what you're getting is a instrument, what you're getting is a promise from somebody to deliver you promise from somebody to deliver you promise from somebody to deliver you money. money. money. Okay? And what as I mentioned in the Okay? And what as I mentioned in the Okay? And what as I mentioned in the beginning, the power of the central beginning, the power of the central beginning, the power of the central banks when they have too much debt is to banks when they have too much debt is to banks when they have too much debt is to print money. print money. print money. Okay. So if you've got that down, Okay. So if you've got that down, Okay. So if you've got that down, okay, then you can understand what's okay, then you can understand what's okay, then you can understand what's happening. Okay. The because the happening. Okay. The because the happening. Okay. The because the question is Dave, what money do you question is Dave, what money do you question is Dave, what money do you think is safe? think is safe? think is safe? >> Right. given what I've just said. >> Right. given what I've just said. >> Right. given what I've just said. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> Which Yeah. the act asset back, right? I >> Which Yeah. the act asset back, right? I >> Which Yeah. the act asset back, right? I want an asset. I want to have something want an asset. I want to have something want an asset. I want to have something that's got some physical known that's got some physical known that's got some physical known limitation to it. limitation to it. limitation to it. >> And particularly what you want is that >> And particularly what you want is that >> And particularly what you want is that can be transferred from one place to can be transferred from one place to can be transferred from one place to another because money is both a medium another because money is both a medium another because money is both a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth. of exchange and a storehold of wealth. of exchange and a storehold of wealth. So in other words, if you if one So in other words, if you if one So in other words, if you if one country's central bank or government country's central bank or government country's central bank or government wants to pay another gun government, it wants to pay another gun government, it wants to pay another gun government, it can't just be in fixed assets like can't just be in fixed assets like can't just be in fixed assets like buildings. Okay? If you want to buildings. Okay? If you want to buildings. Okay? If you want to transact, you have to transact in transact, you have to transact in transact, you have to transact in something that you can transfer to them something that you can transfer to them something that you can transfer to them and so on. And gold is the only uh and so on. And gold is the only uh and so on. And gold is the only uh asset. It's the long-term historic asset asset. It's the long-term historic asset asset. It's the long-term historic asset for for reasons. That means that it can for for reasons. That means that it can for for reasons. That means that it can be transferred. They can't print a lot be transferred. They can't print a lot be transferred. They can't print a lot of it. Um and um it is not dependent on of it. Um and um it is not dependent on of it. Um and um it is not dependent on somebody giving you something. In other somebody giving you something. In other somebody giving you something. In other words, most money most if you hold debt words, most money most if you hold debt words, most money most if you hold debt or you hold stocks or you hold or you hold stocks or you hold or you hold stocks or you hold something, you're holding a promise from something, you're holding a promise from something, you're holding a promise from somebody to give you buying power. Okay? somebody to give you buying power. Okay? somebody to give you buying power. Okay? So you can like wealth. There's So you can like wealth. There's So you can like wealth. There's important thing to distinguish wealth important thing to distinguish wealth important thing to distinguish wealth from money. from money. from money. Okay? Wealth is in stuff. It's it, you Okay? Wealth is in stuff. It's it, you Okay? Wealth is in stuff. It's it, you know, it's in buildings. It's in know, it's in buildings. It's in know, it's in buildings. It's in companies and so on. But you can't spend companies and so on. But you can't spend companies and so on. But you can't spend wealth. You have to when you want to wealth. You have to when you want to wealth. You have to when you want to spend it, and that's the purpose of spend it, and that's the purpose of spend it, and that's the purpose of money, you have to sell it. And then you money, you have to sell it. And then you money, you have to sell it. And then you get money to spend. And right now, we get money to spend. And right now, we get money to spend. And right now, we have an awful lot of wealth have an awful lot of wealth have an awful lot of wealth relative to money. And the question is, relative to money. And the question is, relative to money. And the question is, what is that money? And there's the risk what is that money? And there's the risk what is that money? And there's the risk that you go to get convert your wealth that you go to get convert your wealth that you go to get convert your wealth into money that they're going to print into money that they're going to print into money that they're going to print money cuz that's what they've always money cuz that's what they've always money cuz that's what they've always done since we've had fiat currencies. done since we've had fiat currencies. done since we've had fiat currencies. >> So as you look out and have >> So as you look out and have >> So as you look out and have conversations with all the market conversations with all the market conversations with all the market participants that you know and you know participants that you know and you know participants that you know and you know everyone that's of size and scale, everyone that's of size and scale, everyone that's of size and scale, where are we in terms of folks where are we in terms of folks where are we in terms of folks converting their wealth into gold or converting their wealth into gold or converting their wealth into gold or their money into gold? like how much their money into gold? like how much their money into gold? like how much more do we have to run in terms of the more do we have to run in terms of the more do we have to run in terms of the dollar denominated value of gold in the dollar denominated value of gold in the dollar denominated value of gold in the market cycle as this great rush for the market cycle as this great rush for the market cycle as this great rush for the doors rush for the exit happens. two doors rush for the exit happens. two doors rush for the exit happens. two things that come to mind. What I what I things that come to mind. What I what I things that come to mind. What I what I look at is literally look at is literally look at is literally who has what assets who has what assets who has what assets including like central banks, what is including like central banks, what is including like central banks, what is the money in and so on and and what is the money in and so on and and what is the money in and so on and and what is that mix and I look at the amount of uh that mix and I look at the amount of uh that mix and I look at the amount of uh wealth relative to money or I look at wealth relative to money or I look at wealth relative to money or I look at the amount of wealth relative uh to the amount of wealth relative uh to the amount of wealth relative uh to gold. And what we've seen is that gold. And what we've seen is that gold. And what we've seen is that there's an enormous amount of wealth there's an enormous amount of wealth there's an enormous amount of wealth and there was an enormous amount in and there was an enormous amount in and there was an enormous amount in central banks of the other money central banks of the other money central banks of the other money relative to hard money gold. And so relative to hard money gold. And so relative to hard money gold. And so we've seen about what I would call we've seen about what I would call we've seen about what I would call it go from an extremely small number to it go from an extremely small number to it go from an extremely small number to something something something that is a less small number. That price that is a less small number. That price that is a less small number. That price increase and that change in composition increase and that change in composition increase and that change in composition has brought it almost not quite but has brought it almost not quite but has brought it almost not quite but almost toward the average of what it's almost toward the average of what it's almost toward the average of what it's been uh over a period of time. So uh been uh over a period of time. So uh been uh over a period of time. So uh being out of balance however because the being out of balance however because the being out of balance however because the wealth is total wealth is still so large wealth is total wealth is still so large wealth is total wealth is still so large relative to money that's a real uh relative to money that's a real uh relative to money that's a real uh issue. So let me give you a practical issue. So let me give you a practical issue. So let me give you a practical example of of of this wealth taxes and example of of of this wealth taxes and example of of of this wealth taxes and wealth wealth wealth being a risk. One question that might be being a risk. One question that might be being a risk. One question that might be asked are are we in a bubble? In other asked are are we in a bubble? In other asked are are we in a bubble? In other words, are AI stocks and other such words, are AI stocks and other such words, are AI stocks and other such stocks in a bubble? That's a does if you stocks in a bubble? That's a does if you stocks in a bubble? That's a does if you want to get into that, we'll get into want to get into that, we'll get into want to get into that, we'll get into that. But one of the things that we know that. But one of the things that we know that. But one of the things that we know from that is that one of the from that is that one of the from that is that one of the characteristics of bubbles is that there characteristics of bubbles is that there characteristics of bubbles is that there becomes a need for money becomes a need for money becomes a need for money that requires people to sell their that requires people to sell their that requires people to sell their assets assets assets to get money to get money to get money to meet that need. Now quite often that to meet that need. Now quite often that to meet that need. Now quite often that need comes from borrowing money to buy need comes from borrowing money to buy need comes from borrowing money to buy those assets. Okay? and then the assets those assets. Okay? and then the assets those assets. Okay? and then the assets go up in price and and so on. But what go up in price and and so on. But what go up in price and and so on. But what happens is it can't be sustained because happens is it can't be sustained because happens is it can't be sustained because you have to make the debt service you have to make the debt service you have to make the debt service payments and they're not thrown off the payments and they're not thrown off the payments and they're not thrown off the cash the to make that and so they have cash the to make that and so they have cash the to make that and so they have to start to sell that and then you and to start to sell that and then you and to start to sell that and then you and when you have to sell it because you when you have to sell it because you when you have to sell it because you need money you need cash to pay your need money you need cash to pay your need money you need cash to pay your debt service or to pay nowadays wealth debt service or to pay nowadays wealth debt service or to pay nowadays wealth taxes. taxes. taxes. Okay. So now we have a dynamic. The Okay. So now we have a dynamic. The Okay. So now we have a dynamic. The bubble will burst as that dynamic takes bubble will burst as that dynamic takes bubble will burst as that dynamic takes place. There are a number of things we place. There are a number of things we place. There are a number of things we could talk about about the bubble if could talk about about the bubble if could talk about about the bubble if you're interested. But just imagine if you're interested. But just imagine if you're interested. But just imagine if you put in wealth taxes. Everybody could you put in wealth taxes. Everybody could you put in wealth taxes. Everybody could talk about whether they like or don't talk about whether they like or don't talk about whether they like or don't like wealth taxes or something. But like wealth taxes or something. But like wealth taxes or something. But anything that if if you put in wealth anything that if if you put in wealth anything that if if you put in wealth taxes and there's a lot of fear of taxes and there's a lot of fear of taxes and there's a lot of fear of wealth taxes in and of itself that can wealth taxes in and of itself that can wealth taxes in and of itself that can drive money uh wealth to cash drive money uh wealth to cash drive money uh wealth to cash and and and there's only one way you're and and and there's only one way you're and and and there's only one way you're going to get the cash with the wealth going to get the cash with the wealth going to get the cash with the wealth and that's either sell it or to borrow and that's either sell it or to borrow and that's either sell it or to borrow against it which causes its own cash against it which causes its own cash against it which causes its own cash flow issues. And we have a dynamic flow issues. And we have a dynamic flow issues. And we have a dynamic having to do with the social part of having to do with the social part of having to do with the social part of this, you know, the wealth gap that this, you know, the wealth gap that this, you know, the wealth gap that makes that politically an issue. So makes that politically an issue. So makes that politically an issue. So anyway, all I'm saying is people should anyway, all I'm saying is people should anyway, all I'm saying is people should worry and and companies should worry or worry and and companies should worry or worry and and companies should worry or countries should worry. Do they have countries should worry. Do they have countries should worry. Do they have enough gold? I mean, if you didn't know enough gold? I mean, if you didn't know enough gold? I mean, if you didn't know what the if you didn't know what gold what the if you didn't know what gold what the if you didn't know what gold was likely to do and you had no view on was likely to do and you had no view on was likely to do and you had no view on gold, one should have between five and gold, one should have between five and gold, one should have between five and 15% of their portfolio in gold because 15% of their portfolio in gold because 15% of their portfolio in gold because of the fact of how it works with the of the fact of how it works with the of the fact of how it works with the other components. In other words, it's a other components. In other words, it's a other components. In other words, it's a diversifier when when the hits the diversifier when when the hits the diversifier when when the hits the fan, fan, fan, okay, gold does well and the other okay, gold does well and the other okay, gold does well and the other things don't. generally speaking and things don't. generally speaking and things don't. generally speaking and because of that correlation depending on because of that correlation depending on because of that correlation depending on what else is in the uh portfolio if you what else is in the uh portfolio if you what else is in the uh portfolio if you put it through an optimizer you'd have put it through an optimizer you'd have put it through an optimizer you'd have something like that. So I'm not trying something like that. So I'm not trying something like that. So I'm not trying to tout people on buying gold but I to tout people on buying gold but I to tout people on buying gold but I would say what is safe? would say what is safe? would say what is safe? What is safe? And it's safe is somewhere What is safe? And it's safe is somewhere What is safe? And it's safe is somewhere if you had no view between five and 15%. if you had no view between five and 15%. if you had no view between five and 15%. Why hasn't Bitcoin performed in the same Why hasn't Bitcoin performed in the same Why hasn't Bitcoin performed in the same way? In the same period that gold's way? In the same period that gold's way? In the same period that gold's climbed 80% since we last talked, climbed 80% since we last talked, climbed 80% since we last talked, Bitcoin's down 25%. Bitcoin's down 25%. Bitcoin's down 25%. What's your view on what's happened with What's your view on what's happened with What's your view on what's happened with Bitcoin and why that hasn't played the Bitcoin and why that hasn't played the Bitcoin and why that hasn't played the role that many thought it was going to role that many thought it was going to role that many thought it was going to play, which is the safe haven asset? play, which is the safe haven asset? play, which is the safe haven asset? >> There there's an important >> There there's an important >> There there's an important differentiating characteristics of differentiating characteristics of differentiating characteristics of Bitcoin and then there's also, you know, Bitcoin and then there's also, you know, Bitcoin and then there's also, you know, like who owns it and why they buy, why like who owns it and why they buy, why like who owns it and why they buy, why they bought and sell. Okay. So, Bitcoin they bought and sell. Okay. So, Bitcoin they bought and sell. Okay. So, Bitcoin does not have privacy tra any does not have privacy tra any does not have privacy tra any transactions uh can be monitored and transactions uh can be monitored and transactions uh can be monitored and then u indirectly perhaps controlled. then u indirectly perhaps controlled. then u indirectly perhaps controlled. Central banks are not going to want to Central banks are not going to want to Central banks are not going to want to buy bitcoin and being able to hold it. buy bitcoin and being able to hold it. buy bitcoin and being able to hold it. So, it's not just individuals, it's So, it's not just individuals, it's So, it's not just individuals, it's institutions and so on, but most you institutions and so on, but most you institutions and so on, but most you know and central banks. So, that there know and central banks. So, that there know and central banks. So, that there are attributes of that. there has been are attributes of that. there has been are attributes of that. there has been um some question or thoughts of the um some question or thoughts of the um some question or thoughts of the development of you know new technologies development of you know new technologies development of you know new technologies like quantum computing and so on. Can like quantum computing and so on. Can like quantum computing and so on. Can there be issues regarding that? And then there be issues regarding that? And then there be issues regarding that? And then there's um you know who owns it and what there's um you know who owns it and what there's um you know who owns it and what are the other exposures that they have are the other exposures that they have are the other exposures that they have in their portfolio? It tends to have a a in their portfolio? It tends to have a a in their portfolio? It tends to have a a pretty high correlation with uh the tech pretty high correlation with uh the tech pretty high correlation with uh the tech stocks. stocks. stocks. So from an ownership, you know, just the So from an ownership, you know, just the So from an ownership, you know, just the supply demand is affected by if somebody supply demand is affected by if somebody supply demand is affected by if somebody gets squeezed in one thing, they sell gets squeezed in one thing, they sell gets squeezed in one thing, they sell something that whatever else they have. something that whatever else they have. something that whatever else they have. So there are those dynamics. It's a long So there are those dynamics. It's a long So there are those dynamics. It's a long way as and it's a relatively small way as and it's a relatively small way as and it's a relatively small market that's a relatively controllable market that's a relatively controllable market that's a relatively controllable market. I think a lot of attention has market. I think a lot of attention has market. I think a lot of attention has been given to Bitcoin but as a money you been given to Bitcoin but as a money you been given to Bitcoin but as a money you know it's it's it's it's small in know it's it's it's it's small in know it's it's it's it's small in relationship to u gold and so you know relationship to u gold and so you know relationship to u gold and so you know those are the dynamics. There is only those are the dynamics. There is only those are the dynamics. There is only one gold. one gold. one gold. >> What about silver? I mean silver has had >> What about silver? I mean silver has had >> What about silver? I mean silver has had a big run up in the past year as well. a big run up in the past year as well. a big run up in the past year as well. Is that a derivative to gold and it's Is that a derivative to gold and it's Is that a derivative to gold and it's effectively people playing off of the effectively people playing off of the effectively people playing off of the wake of gold movement? um silver in its wake of gold movement? um silver in its wake of gold movement? um silver in its production is a residual commodity. The production is a residual commodity. The production is a residual commodity. The supply of it is difficult to increase supply of it is difficult to increase supply of it is difficult to increase and through history uh you know like the and through history uh you know like the and through history uh you know like the pound sterling silver was perceived as a pound sterling silver was perceived as a pound sterling silver was perceived as a monetary uh item. Uh but it uh has also monetary uh item. Uh but it uh has also monetary uh item. Uh but it uh has also taken on a speculative life of its own. taken on a speculative life of its own. taken on a speculative life of its own. So, you know, people are um you know, So, you know, people are um you know, So, you know, people are um you know, hot in it because it's been hot. hot in it because it's been hot. hot in it because it's been hot. >> I just want to shift gear a little bit >> I just want to shift gear a little bit >> I just want to shift gear a little bit back to something you touched on, but back to something you touched on, but back to something you touched on, but the last time we met, you also talked the last time we met, you also talked the last time we met, you also talked about the importance of making sure that about the importance of making sure that about the importance of making sure that interest rates remained low for us to interest rates remained low for us to interest rates remained low for us to kind of manage the effect and the impact kind of manage the effect and the impact kind of manage the effect and the impact of the stage of the cycle that we're in. of the stage of the cycle that we're in. of the stage of the cycle that we're in. What's your view, I guess, today on What's your view, I guess, today on What's your view, I guess, today on where rates are and how the Fed has where rates are and how the Fed has where rates are and how the Fed has acted over the past year relative to acted over the past year relative to acted over the past year relative to what needs to be done to soften the what needs to be done to soften the what needs to be done to soften the effects of the stage in the cycle that effects of the stage in the cycle that effects of the stage in the cycle that we're in we're in we're in >> because we have so much debt, federal >> because we have so much debt, federal >> because we have so much debt, federal debt, debt, debt, um interest rates are one of the three um interest rates are one of the three um interest rates are one of the three main considerations. There's the um main considerations. There's the um main considerations. There's the um taxes, there's spending, and then taxes, there's spending, and then taxes, there's spending, and then there's interest rates or on the debt. there's interest rates or on the debt. there's interest rates or on the debt. But you can't make interest rates um But you can't make interest rates um But you can't make interest rates um severely artificially low because one severely artificially low because one severely artificially low because one man's debts are another man's assets. man's debts are another man's assets. man's debts are another man's assets. And if you make those interest rates And if you make those interest rates And if you make those interest rates too low for the creditor, too low for the creditor, too low for the creditor, you will produce the dynamic that we you will produce the dynamic that we you will produce the dynamic that we understand. In other words, you'll understand. In other words, you'll understand. In other words, you'll produce a lot more borrowing. You'll put produce a lot more borrowing. You'll put produce a lot more borrowing. You'll put it into things and you can fuel a it into things and you can fuel a it into things and you can fuel a bubble. And so at the same time bubble. And so at the same time bubble. And so at the same time uh you can't have them so high that the uh you can't have them so high that the uh you can't have them so high that the debtor gets squeezed debtor gets squeezed debtor gets squeezed uneffectively. So there's a balancing uneffectively. So there's a balancing uneffectively. So there's a balancing act. You know keep them high enough that act. You know keep them high enough that act. You know keep them high enough that they're adequate for the creditor but they're adequate for the creditor but they're adequate for the creditor but not so high that the debtor. And so when not so high that the debtor. And so when not so high that the debtor. And so when you have a lot of debt assets and you have a lot of debt assets and you have a lot of debt assets and liabilities because for every debt asset liabilities because for every debt asset liabilities because for every debt asset there's a debt liability. And when you there's a debt liability. And when you there's a debt liability. And when you have a lot of those that balancing act have a lot of those that balancing act have a lot of those that balancing act is is very difficult. this made more is is very difficult. this made more is is very difficult. this made more difficult you know because of what's difficult you know because of what's difficult you know because of what's called the K economy you know in other called the K economy you know in other called the K economy you know in other words there are bubble elements that are words there are bubble elements that are words there are bubble elements that are going on in the part of the economy you going on in the part of the economy you going on in the part of the economy you know where um know where um know where um you know the question is who will be the you know the question is who will be the you know the question is who will be the first to be a trillionaire and and and first to be a trillionaire and and and first to be a trillionaire and and and that you know that top 1% of the that you know that top 1% of the that you know that top 1% of the population and all of that at the same population and all of that at the same population and all of that at the same time as you have the other part of the time as you have the other part of the time as you have the other part of the econom economy where um for example 60% econom economy where um for example 60% econom economy where um for example 60% of all Americans have below a sixth of all Americans have below a sixth of all Americans have below a sixth grade reading level and and to make them grade reading level and and to make them grade reading level and and to make them productive particularly as we are also productive particularly as we are also productive particularly as we are also having AI have replacements for them um having AI have replacements for them um having AI have replacements for them um is a particularly difficult thing to is a particularly difficult thing to is a particularly difficult thing to achieve. In other words, when you have achieve. In other words, when you have achieve. In other words, when you have so much debt assets and liabilities so much debt assets and liabilities so much debt assets and liabilities and then you have such a disparity in and then you have such a disparity in and then you have such a disparity in conditions between those that are at the conditions between those that are at the conditions between those that are at the top and let's call it the bottom 60% of top and let's call it the bottom 60% of top and let's call it the bottom 60% of the population what that's like that's the population what that's like that's the population what that's like that's uh you know another hattick that's uh you know another hattick that's uh you know another hattick that's another another another difficult thing to pull off. So difficult thing to pull off. So difficult thing to pull off. So this is a challenging situation as for this is a challenging situation as for this is a challenging situation as for as far as monetary policy as far as monetary policy as far as monetary policy exists. The idea of setting an interest exists. The idea of setting an interest exists. The idea of setting an interest rate and having a fiscal policy and a rate and having a fiscal policy and a rate and having a fiscal policy and a monetary policy that's for the economy monetary policy that's for the economy monetary policy that's for the economy as a whole as a whole as a whole and doesn't deal with the differences in and doesn't deal with the differences in and doesn't deal with the differences in the econ in the circumstances. may be the econ in the circumstances. may be the econ in the circumstances. may be more more more is more challenging. is more challenging. is more challenging. >> Well, so taking a look at Fed action >> Well, so taking a look at Fed action >> Well, so taking a look at Fed action and market activity, there's been a lot and market activity, there's been a lot and market activity, there's been a lot of reporting over the past year that a of reporting over the past year that a of reporting over the past year that a number of global central banks have number of global central banks have number of global central banks have stopped buying US treasuries and are stopped buying US treasuries and are stopped buying US treasuries and are shifting to gold. Does this mean that shifting to gold. Does this mean that shifting to gold. Does this mean that the Fed in the US is going to have to the Fed in the US is going to have to the Fed in the US is going to have to start buying treasuries and expand their start buying treasuries and expand their start buying treasuries and expand their balance sheet again? Is it inevitable balance sheet again? Is it inevitable balance sheet again? Is it inevitable that we see a re-expansion of the Fed's that we see a re-expansion of the Fed's that we see a re-expansion of the Fed's balance sheet in this phase in the cycle balance sheet in this phase in the cycle balance sheet in this phase in the cycle given what's going on with global market given what's going on with global market given what's going on with global market action? action? action? >> I think that it's likely down the road. >> I think that it's likely down the road. >> I think that it's likely down the road. Um uh right now uh there's um the Um uh right now uh there's um the Um uh right now uh there's um the shortening of maturities shortening of maturities shortening of maturities um as a means of trying to deal with um as a means of trying to deal with um as a means of trying to deal with that. Of course, that increases the debt that. Of course, that increases the debt that. Of course, that increases the debt rollover risk. uh but the you know sell rollover risk. uh but the you know sell rollover risk. uh but the you know sell less long debt uh try to uh hold the less long debt uh try to uh hold the less long debt uh try to uh hold the short rate down so that the longer rates short rate down so that the longer rates short rate down so that the longer rates attachment to it doesn't get you know attachment to it doesn't get you know attachment to it doesn't get you know helps to hold the long rate down and helps to hold the long rate down and helps to hold the long rate down and then uh try to um then uh try to um then uh try to um use use use the government's power of persuasion the government's power of persuasion the government's power of persuasion on other countries to either buy the on other countries to either buy the on other countries to either buy the debt or to hold the debt or to have debt or to hold the debt or to have debt or to hold the debt or to have other forms of capital enter the United other forms of capital enter the United other forms of capital enter the United States. States. States. >> How do you like Kevin Wars has picked >> How do you like Kevin Wars has picked >> How do you like Kevin Wars has picked for Fed chair? What's your view on how for Fed chair? What's your view on how for Fed chair? What's your view on how he's going to guide interest rate policy he's going to guide interest rate policy he's going to guide interest rate policy for the central bank and when he assumes for the central bank and when he assumes for the central bank and when he assumes his term? his term? his term? >> It's a very very big challenge. I think >> It's a very very big challenge. I think >> It's a very very big challenge. I think he's a practical man. He understands he's a practical man. He understands he's a practical man. He understands both sides of the pros and cons. I think both sides of the pros and cons. I think both sides of the pros and cons. I think it's a tough job. One of the other it's a tough job. One of the other it's a tough job. One of the other things that I would say was pretty things that I would say was pretty things that I would say was pretty surprising over the past year surprising over the past year surprising over the past year is is is how adamantly against tariffs for fear how adamantly against tariffs for fear how adamantly against tariffs for fear of inflation and reduced consumption of inflation and reduced consumption of inflation and reduced consumption which would mean a negative effect on which would mean a negative effect on which would mean a negative effect on GDP growth. Perhaps tariffs might be. GDP growth. Perhaps tariffs might be. GDP growth. Perhaps tariffs might be. The president and the administration put The president and the administration put The president and the administration put in place a number of tariffs under the in place a number of tariffs under the in place a number of tariffs under the emergency economic powers act which the emergency economic powers act which the emergency economic powers act which the Supreme Court in the last week or so Supreme Court in the last week or so Supreme Court in the last week or so overturned. overturned. overturned. But looking back on the economic effect But looking back on the economic effect But looking back on the economic effect of tariffs, what do you think economists of tariffs, what do you think economists of tariffs, what do you think economists got right and wrong about their got right and wrong about their got right and wrong about their predictions about the effect tariffs predictions about the effect tariffs predictions about the effect tariffs would have on the economy, on would have on the economy, on would have on the economy, on consumption, on inflation? consumption, on inflation? consumption, on inflation? And are there things that economists And are there things that economists And are there things that economists fundamentally missed or didn't fundamentally missed or didn't fundamentally missed or didn't understand and why? understand and why? understand and why? >> Yeah, I I think so. First of all, um >> Yeah, I I think so. First of all, um >> Yeah, I I think so. First of all, um there's the uh tax revenue part of them. there's the uh tax revenue part of them. there's the uh tax revenue part of them. I mean thinking of it just as uh revenue I mean thinking of it just as uh revenue I mean thinking of it just as uh revenue and I think that people don't and I think that people don't and I think that people don't all economists make the mistake of not all economists make the mistake of not all economists make the mistake of not including taxes in inflation. including taxes in inflation. including taxes in inflation. >> And what I mean by that is >> And what I mean by that is >> And what I mean by that is if your if your taxes go up if your if your taxes go up if your if your taxes go up that's inflation. that's inflation. that's inflation. I mean, why should it be any different I mean, why should it be any different I mean, why should it be any different than if your cost of housing goes up? than if your cost of housing goes up? than if your cost of housing goes up? Why shouldn't it be part of the Why shouldn't it be part of the Why shouldn't it be part of the inflation calculation number? It's take inflation calculation number? It's take inflation calculation number? It's take it's taking money out of your pocket. I it's taking money out of your pocket. I it's taking money out of your pocket. I mean, it's probably the, you know, for a mean, it's probably the, you know, for a mean, it's probably the, you know, for a lot of people the biggest expense. And lot of people the biggest expense. And lot of people the biggest expense. And so, when they to say inflation is so, when they to say inflation is so, when they to say inflation is something separate, you know, uh uh I something separate, you know, uh uh I something separate, you know, uh uh I think it's changing the form of of think it's changing the form of of think it's changing the form of of inflation in a sense. inflation in a sense. inflation in a sense. So what I mean is you know through So what I mean is you know through So what I mean is you know through history tariffs used to be the biggest history tariffs used to be the biggest history tariffs used to be the biggest source of uh revenue for government source of uh revenue for government source of uh revenue for government through throughout most history and in through throughout most history and in through throughout most history and in most countries. Okay. So, it is a um I most countries. Okay. So, it is a um I most countries. Okay. So, it is a um I think it's viewed it's it's a totally think it's viewed it's it's a totally think it's viewed it's it's a totally valid way of raising money and it should valid way of raising money and it should valid way of raising money and it should be kept kept in consideration for that be kept kept in consideration for that be kept kept in consideration for that and and you get the foreigners paying a and and you get the foreigners paying a and and you get the foreigners paying a portion of it. But there's also as part portion of it. But there's also as part portion of it. But there's also as part of the big cycle question is the problem of the big cycle question is the problem of the big cycle question is the problem that we have that we are not that we have that we are not that we have that we are not independent. Okay, we've had a hollowing independent. Okay, we've had a hollowing independent. Okay, we've had a hollowing out. This is the big question, you know, out. This is the big question, you know, out. This is the big question, you know, that we've had a hollowing out of that we've had a hollowing out of that we've had a hollowing out of manufacturing the middle class and so manufacturing the middle class and so manufacturing the middle class and so on. Now, are we going to try to build on. Now, are we going to try to build on. Now, are we going to try to build that? and what is the plan to build that that? and what is the plan to build that that? and what is the plan to build that or are we going to continue on with or are we going to continue on with or are we going to continue on with large trade deficits large trade deficits large trade deficits and um so you have unsustainable and um so you have unsustainable and um so you have unsustainable trade deficits that the United States trade deficits that the United States trade deficits that the United States has and which are capital um surpluses. has and which are capital um surpluses. has and which are capital um surpluses. In other words, the dependence on In other words, the dependence on In other words, the dependence on foreign capital is the other side of foreign capital is the other side of foreign capital is the other side of those trade balances and that's those trade balances and that's those trade balances and that's unsustainable. So because that's unsustainable. So because that's unsustainable. So because that's unsustainable unsustainable unsustainable um you need uh uh some way of uh um you need uh uh some way of uh um you need uh uh some way of uh rectifying that. Okay. So what is the rectifying that. Okay. So what is the rectifying that. Okay. So what is the plan to rectify that? Partially that plan to rectify that? Partially that plan to rectify that? Partially that plan uh can have trade tariffs. I think plan uh can have trade tariffs. I think plan uh can have trade tariffs. I think they're totally valid. they're totally valid. they're totally valid. uh but it all has to be part of another uh but it all has to be part of another uh but it all has to be part of another greater plan which is to develop greater plan which is to develop greater plan which is to develop the industries that we need to have the industries that we need to have the industries that we need to have developed which we're seeing happen in a developed which we're seeing happen in a developed which we're seeing happen in a much more proactive way. In other words, much more proactive way. In other words, much more proactive way. In other words, you're seeing more government um you're seeing more government um you're seeing more government um activity to create infrastructure activity to create infrastructure activity to create infrastructure to bring in industries and so on. You to bring in industries and so on. You to bring in industries and so on. You need that not only economically but you need that not only economically but you need that not only economically but you need it geopolitically because you can't need it geopolitically because you can't need it geopolitically because you can't have dependencies. have dependencies. have dependencies. In other words, we're entering a world In other words, we're entering a world In other words, we're entering a world of greater conflict. We've moved from a of greater conflict. We've moved from a of greater conflict. We've moved from a multilateral world order to a a multilateral world order to a a multilateral world order to a a powerbased confrontational world powerbased confrontational world powerbased confrontational world economy. And in that environment, economy. And in that environment, economy. And in that environment, everybody's threatening to cut off everybody's threatening to cut off everybody's threatening to cut off everything from, you know, the uh goods everything from, you know, the uh goods everything from, you know, the uh goods and capital wars that we can have are and capital wars that we can have are and capital wars that we can have are threatening. And so, you have to build threatening. And so, you have to build threatening. And so, you have to build independence. independence. independence. And so, um, that's part of a plan to try And so, um, that's part of a plan to try And so, um, that's part of a plan to try to build that independence. to build that independence. to build that independence. Um, so I I think when I look at that, I Um, so I I think when I look at that, I Um, so I I think when I look at that, I don't think that's the problem. I I'd don't think that's the problem. I I'd don't think that's the problem. I I'd say uh and it's misunderstood. So yes, I say uh and it's misunderstood. So yes, I say uh and it's misunderstood. So yes, I think people are misunderstanding that. think people are misunderstanding that. think people are misunderstanding that. And the important thing is we get the And the important thing is we get the And the important thing is we get the other things right, you know, like let's other things right, you know, like let's other things right, you know, like let's get down to 3%. And and by the way, get down to 3%. And and by the way, get down to 3%. And and by the way, there's a bipartisan bill that on this there's a bipartisan bill that on this there's a bipartisan bill that on this and um uh the 3% has um has come out in and um uh the 3% has um has come out in and um uh the 3% has um has come out in favor of it. I'm in favor of it. And I favor of it. I'm in favor of it. And I favor of it. I'm in favor of it. And I mean lots of people are in favor of you mean lots of people are in favor of you mean lots of people are in favor of you know um what I'll call the 3% threepart know um what I'll call the 3% threepart know um what I'll call the 3% threepart solution. 3% of GDP, three parts uh a solution. 3% of GDP, three parts uh a solution. 3% of GDP, three parts uh a bit from one thing, a bit from another. bit from one thing, a bit from another. bit from one thing, a bit from another. taxes, spending, and um and hopefully taxes, spending, and um and hopefully taxes, spending, and um and hopefully interest rates. interest rates. interest rates. >> And just to take the inflation question >> And just to take the inflation question >> And just to take the inflation question to its conclusion, at the State of the to its conclusion, at the State of the to its conclusion, at the State of the Union this week, President Trump shared Union this week, President Trump shared Union this week, President Trump shared his vision, which is that tariffs can his vision, which is that tariffs can his vision, which is that tariffs can completely replace an income tax in the completely replace an income tax in the completely replace an income tax in the United States. Do you think that that's United States. Do you think that that's United States. Do you think that that's a feasible path? Is it make sense at a feasible path? Is it make sense at a feasible path? Is it make sense at some point for tariffs, which are some point for tariffs, which are some point for tariffs, which are effective? I don't think it's it's I I effective? I don't think it's it's I I effective? I don't think it's it's I I don't think it's going to No, I don't don't think it's going to No, I don't don't think it's going to No, I don't think it's anywhere near um that uh both think it's anywhere near um that uh both think it's anywhere near um that uh both because of the combination of the size because of the combination of the size because of the combination of the size and then the impact of that size. and then the impact of that size. and then the impact of that size. tariffs are regressive and I think that tariffs are regressive and I think that tariffs are regressive and I think that uh there needs to be um some um we have uh there needs to be um some um we have uh there needs to be um some um we have to deal with the wealth gap app to me to deal with the wealth gap app to me to deal with the wealth gap app to me the wealth gap the biggest problem of the wealth gap the biggest problem of the wealth gap the biggest problem of the wealth gap which is a big social the wealth gap which is a big social the wealth gap which is a big social problem is also the productivity gap and problem is also the productivity gap and problem is also the productivity gap and you have to make most people productive you have to make most people productive you have to make most people productive and you have to do that through and you have to do that through and you have to do that through infrastructure and so on and I I don't infrastructure and so on and I I don't infrastructure and so on and I I don't think I I think that needs to be think I I think that needs to be think I I think that needs to be addressed. addressed. addressed. >> It's a really important point you just >> It's a really important point you just >> It's a really important point you just made. I think my analysis made. I think my analysis made. I think my analysis indicates that nearly half of Americans indicates that nearly half of Americans indicates that nearly half of Americans either work for a government agency or a either work for a government agency or a either work for a government agency or a government service provider or government service provider or government service provider or contractor. The data over the past year contractor. The data over the past year contractor. The data over the past year is the federal workforce declined by is the federal workforce declined by is the federal workforce declined by 317,000 317,000 317,000 employees, roughly 14% of the total employees, roughly 14% of the total employees, roughly 14% of the total federal workforce. federal workforce. federal workforce. As this administration has reduced the As this administration has reduced the As this administration has reduced the size of some of these agencies, reduced size of some of these agencies, reduced size of some of these agencies, reduced the size of that workforce, what happens the size of that workforce, what happens the size of that workforce, what happens to those individuals? Do they go work in to those individuals? Do they go work in to those individuals? Do they go work in the private workforce and become the private workforce and become the private workforce and become productive or do you think they're productive or do you think they're productive or do you think they're getting subsumed by other government getting subsumed by other government getting subsumed by other government agencies either state or local or agencies either state or local or agencies either state or local or government service providers to do work government service providers to do work government service providers to do work that fundamentally is not productive to that fundamentally is not productive to that fundamentally is not productive to growing the economy? growing the economy? growing the economy? >> I uh I I haven't studied the numbers. I >> I uh I I haven't studied the numbers. I >> I uh I I haven't studied the numbers. I I don't think I can adequately answer I don't think I can adequately answer I don't think I can adequately answer that. I would say that. I would say that. I would say government is extremely inefficient. government is extremely inefficient. government is extremely inefficient. It has a role. It has an important role It has a role. It has an important role It has a role. It has an important role but even that role it's handling very but even that role it's handling very but even that role it's handling very inefficiently. Other governments handle inefficiently. Other governments handle inefficiently. Other governments handle that role of um maybe education that role of um maybe education that role of um maybe education some of these things in a better way. We some of these things in a better way. We some of these things in a better way. We need fundamental we need you know best need fundamental we need you know best need fundamental we need you know best thing you could invest in is education. thing you could invest in is education. thing you could invest in is education. But anyway, where they go and what they But anyway, where they go and what they But anyway, where they go and what they do u from the government and and you do u from the government and and you do u from the government and and you know the other inefficiencies is a know the other inefficiencies is a know the other inefficiencies is a problem. The one thing that's good about problem. The one thing that's good about problem. The one thing that's good about uh the system um that the capitalist uh the system um that the capitalist uh the system um that the capitalist system in a sense is it doesn't live if system in a sense is it doesn't live if system in a sense is it doesn't live if it can't uh if somebody either won't bet it can't uh if somebody either won't bet it can't uh if somebody either won't bet on it or it doesn't make a profit. So, on it or it doesn't make a profit. So, on it or it doesn't make a profit. So, um, yeah. So, I think wherever it goes, um, yeah. So, I think wherever it goes, um, yeah. So, I think wherever it goes, um, it's wherever those people go, um, it's wherever those people go, um, it's wherever those people go, they're just so many inefficient people they're just so many inefficient people they're just so many inefficient people and inefficient systems. and inefficient systems. and inefficient systems. >> Is there not enough productivity driven >> Is there not enough productivity driven >> Is there not enough productivity driven economic growth in this nation at this economic growth in this nation at this economic growth in this nation at this time to give more people the opportunity time to give more people the opportunity time to give more people the opportunity to improve their income, improve their to improve their income, improve their to improve their income, improve their wealth, improve their livelihoods? wealth, improve their livelihoods? wealth, improve their livelihoods? Is that the fundamental issue we're Is that the fundamental issue we're Is that the fundamental issue we're dealing with at the moment? Or is it dealing with at the moment? Or is it dealing with at the moment? Or is it that you know people aren't prepared or that you know people aren't prepared or that you know people aren't prepared or educated to be productive and therefore educated to be productive and therefore educated to be productive and therefore the system itself has failed them? the system itself has failed them? the system itself has failed them? >> There are three things basically that >> There are three things basically that >> There are three things basically that you need to do to be successful. you need to do to be successful. you need to do to be successful. You have to first educate your children You have to first educate your children You have to first educate your children well and uh so that they are capable of well and uh so that they are capable of well and uh so that they are capable of being productive and also educate them being productive and also educate them being productive and also educate them in civility so that they are civil with in civility so that they are civil with in civility so that they are civil with each other. each other. each other. The second is then they have to come out The second is then they have to come out The second is then they have to come out to an environment that is an orderly to an environment that is an orderly to an environment that is an orderly civil environment that people can civil environment that people can civil environment that people can compete and work wi with with and and compete and work wi with with and and compete and work wi with with and and compete and work with each other to be compete and work with each other to be compete and work with each other to be productive. That that works for the most productive. That that works for the most productive. That that works for the most people. And the third thing is you have people. And the third thing is you have people. And the third thing is you have to stay out of wars. You have to stay to stay out of wars. You have to stay to stay out of wars. You have to stay you have to have no civil war and no you have to have no civil war and no you have to have no civil war and no international war. If you do those three international war. If you do those three international war. If you do those three things right, you will have a successful things right, you will have a successful things right, you will have a successful country. That's all throughout history. country. That's all throughout history. country. That's all throughout history. Okay. We're having problems with those. Okay. We're having problems with those. Okay. We're having problems with those. And are those three things the antidote And are those three things the antidote And are those three things the antidote to some of the rising movements that to some of the rising movements that to some of the rising movements that we're seeing in increased unionization we're seeing in increased unionization we're seeing in increased unionization and effects that unions are having on and effects that unions are having on and effects that unions are having on the political process which is also the political process which is also the political process which is also leading to these rises in socialism and leading to these rises in socialism and leading to these rises in socialism and support for socialist movements in the support for socialist movements in the support for socialist movements in the United States as well as the wealth United States as well as the wealth United States as well as the wealth taxes which from the view that's shared taxes which from the view that's shared taxes which from the view that's shared by those participating in those by those participating in those by those participating in those movements they are meant to solve income movements they are meant to solve income movements they are meant to solve income inequality wealth health gap issues that inequality wealth health gap issues that inequality wealth health gap issues that we're seeing in the United States. So we're seeing in the United States. So we're seeing in the United States. So that's their solution. Is the solution that's their solution. Is the solution that's their solution. Is the solution to those movements? Education and to those movements? Education and to those movements? Education and civility, creating a civil environment, civility, creating a civil environment, civility, creating a civil environment, and staying out of wars. Is that all we and staying out of wars. Is that all we and staying out of wars. Is that all we need to do to make this successful or is need to do to make this successful or is need to do to make this successful or is there more to the there more to the there more to the >> That's that what we need >> That's that what we need >> That's that what we need is is is to stop fighting. Okay. We're is is is to stop fighting. Okay. We're is is is to stop fighting. Okay. We're now at a stage where we have now at a stage where we have now at a stage where we have irreconcilable differences. irreconcilable differences. irreconcilable differences. In other words, when In other words, when In other words, when when the causes people are behind are when the causes people are behind are when the causes people are behind are more important to them than the system, more important to them than the system, more important to them than the system, the system is in jeopardy. the system is in jeopardy. the system is in jeopardy. Our system is in jeopardy Our system is in jeopardy Our system is in jeopardy because because because um um um they people will not accept the system they people will not accept the system they people will not accept the system or the alternatives and so they're going or the alternatives and so they're going or the alternatives and so they're going to fight. You know, I think I think when to fight. You know, I think I think when to fight. You know, I think I think when we have we're going to have the midterm we have we're going to have the midterm we have we're going to have the midterm elections, elections, elections, you're going to go past the midterm you're going to go past the midterm you're going to go past the midterm elections with probably the uh Democrats elections with probably the uh Democrats elections with probably the uh Democrats will take the House and be and maybe I will take the House and be and maybe I will take the House and be and maybe I don't know, it's going to be difficult. don't know, it's going to be difficult. don't know, it's going to be difficult. And you know what? Nobody can succeed And you know what? Nobody can succeed And you know what? Nobody can succeed because everybody's going to be because everybody's going to be because everybody's going to be fighting. They're going to all be fighting. They're going to all be fighting. They're going to all be fighting. Okay? So, how does that affect fighting. Okay? So, how does that affect fighting. Okay? So, how does that affect productivity? Uh, okay. And then when productivity? Uh, okay. And then when productivity? Uh, okay. And then when you deal with things like how do you get you deal with things like how do you get you deal with things like how do you get a good education system? So you have now a good education system? So you have now a good education system? So you have now almost the mob disorder almost the mob disorder almost the mob disorder mob disorder and inefficiency. mob disorder and inefficiency. mob disorder and inefficiency. Nobody's allowed to take charge of this. Nobody's allowed to take charge of this. Nobody's allowed to take charge of this. If if you go back in history, If if you go back in history, If if you go back in history, Plato, you know, I think it was like 350 Plato, you know, I think it was like 350 Plato, you know, I think it was like 350 BC wrote about the cycle, you know, of BC wrote about the cycle, you know, of BC wrote about the cycle, you know, of democracies and the threat to democracies and the threat to democracies and the threat to democracies. democracies. democracies. What's happening now is similar to What's happening now is similar to What's happening now is similar to Julius Caesar and Rome and being, you Julius Caesar and Rome and being, you Julius Caesar and Rome and being, you know, stabbed in the Senate and and what know, stabbed in the Senate and and what know, stabbed in the Senate and and what you need is you need a bipartisan you need is you need a bipartisan you need is you need a bipartisan you need you need the country to have you need you need the country to have you need you need the country to have have a strong almost a strong leader. We have a strong almost a strong leader. We have a strong almost a strong leader. We do need a strong leader to get the the do need a strong leader to get the the do need a strong leader to get the the reforms done to make the country work reforms done to make the country work reforms done to make the country work well. But I mean, so how do you force well. But I mean, so how do you force well. But I mean, so how do you force this mob of people who are behaving this this mob of people who are behaving this this mob of people who are behaving this way including in the elections and so way including in the elections and so way including in the elections and so fragment to create order. So you need a fragment to create order. So you need a fragment to create order. So you need a a tough leader who will force them to do a tough leader who will force them to do a tough leader who will force them to do diff force things to difficult things diff force things to difficult things diff force things to difficult things and not fight with each other and focus and not fight with each other and focus and not fight with each other and focus on being productive. That's what you on being productive. That's what you on being productive. That's what you need. I think need. I think need. I think >> it sounds a little like there may be >> it sounds a little like there may be >> it sounds a little like there may be this this this inevitable path of the choice that no inevitable path of the choice that no inevitable path of the choice that no one wants to make between some form of one wants to make between some form of one wants to make between some form of socialism and some form of fascism. Is socialism and some form of fascism. Is socialism and some form of fascism. Is that where this that where this that where this >> I think there's I think you were we're >> I think there's I think you were we're >> I think there's I think you were we're moving toward the that war. We're in moving toward the that war. We're in moving toward the that war. We're in that war. We're in what's sta what I that war. We're in what's sta what I that war. We're in what's sta what I call stage five of a cycle. Okay. In the call stage five of a cycle. Okay. In the call stage five of a cycle. Okay. In the book I describe the pattern that's book I describe the pattern that's book I describe the pattern that's happened over and over again. And when happened over and over again. And when happened over and over again. And when you get to this position when there are you get to this position when there are you get to this position when there are a bad finances a bad finances a bad finances combined with large wealth and values combined with large wealth and values combined with large wealth and values gaps gaps gaps and irreconcilable differences and irreconcilable differences and irreconcilable differences and you have external threats as well as and you have external threats as well as and you have external threats as well as domestic threats. domestic threats. domestic threats. You have this dynamic. I think that's You have this dynamic. I think that's You have this dynamic. I think that's where we are. I I'm like a mechanic. My where we are. I I'm like a mechanic. My where we are. I I'm like a mechanic. My goal I'm not ideological. I'm just a goal I'm not ideological. I'm just a goal I'm not ideological. I'm just a practical guy trying to make money in practical guy trying to make money in practical guy trying to make money in the markets and trying to describe the markets and trying to describe the markets and trying to describe things and that's what it looks like. I things and that's what it looks like. I things and that's what it looks like. I think when we look at the bubble think when we look at the bubble think when we look at the bubble question on AI, what a lot of people question on AI, what a lot of people question on AI, what a lot of people don't realize in bubbles is that through don't realize in bubbles is that through don't realize in bubbles is that through all technologies, they think that they all technologies, they think that they all technologies, they think that they are betting on the technology when they are betting on the technology when they are betting on the technology when they buy the stocks and the companies. That's buy the stocks and the companies. That's buy the stocks and the companies. That's not true. not true. not true. Okay? There's a giant difference between Okay? There's a giant difference between Okay? There's a giant difference between the behavior of the companies and the the behavior of the companies and the the behavior of the companies and the behavior of the technologies behavior of the technologies behavior of the technologies and that the norm is in these is that a and that the norm is in these is that a and that the norm is in these is that a lot of companies won't survive in the lot of companies won't survive in the lot of companies won't survive in the start. It very small percentage and start. It very small percentage and start. It very small percentage and they'll all fight and so on but the they'll all fight and so on but the they'll all fight and so on but the technologies will go on and it'll be technologies will go on and it'll be technologies will go on and it'll be great. the technologies will. So I want great. the technologies will. So I want great. the technologies will. So I want to emphasize to people that dynamic and to emphasize to people that dynamic and to emphasize to people that dynamic and I can go on and describe you know what I can go on and describe you know what I can go on and describe you know what it's like. Uh of course we've seen it to it's like. Uh of course we've seen it to it's like. Uh of course we've seen it to some extent with the 2000 bubble in the some extent with the 2000 bubble in the some extent with the 2000 bubble in the technologies and what went on. But e technologies and what went on. But e technologies and what went on. But e even if I describe what it was like in even if I describe what it was like in even if I describe what it was like in the late 20s, you know, it's just it was the late 20s, you know, it's just it was the late 20s, you know, it's just it was unbelievable. But the technologies will unbelievable. But the technologies will unbelievable. But the technologies will go on but the companies uh won't go on but the companies uh won't go on but the companies uh won't necessarily go on. And um so when I'm necessarily go on. And um so when I'm necessarily go on. And um so when I'm looking at that, that has big looking at that, that has big looking at that, that has big implications. Right now it looks to me implications. Right now it looks to me implications. Right now it looks to me like AI like AI like AI uh basically is eating everything and it uh basically is eating everything and it uh basically is eating everything and it might eat itself. might eat itself. might eat itself. And what I mean by that is not produce And what I mean by that is not produce And what I mean by that is not produce adequate profits. We can't take just a adequate profits. We can't take just a adequate profits. We can't take just a domestic view of that. We have to look domestic view of that. We have to look domestic view of that. We have to look also at what's happening in China and um also at what's happening in China and um also at what's happening in China and um make interesting distinctions there. You make interesting distinctions there. You make interesting distinctions there. You know, there's a difference in philosophy know, there's a difference in philosophy know, there's a difference in philosophy that's carried through in the economy of that's carried through in the economy of that's carried through in the economy of how the economies of the United States how the economies of the United States how the economies of the United States and China work in that we have basically and China work in that we have basically and China work in that we have basically primarily a profit-based system. primarily a profit-based system. primarily a profit-based system. They have a system in which they might They have a system in which they might They have a system in which they might believe that profits are a second believe that profits are a second believe that profits are a second consideration. they're not necessarily consideration. they're not necessarily consideration. they're not necessarily needed in order to achieve the best needed in order to achieve the best needed in order to achieve the best results. For example, in in China, they results. For example, in in China, they results. For example, in in China, they would say usage of AI is fantastic. So, would say usage of AI is fantastic. So, would say usage of AI is fantastic. So, it should be like electricity or it should be like electricity or it should be like electricity or something and let's make it free for something and let's make it free for something and let's make it free for everyone everyone everyone and let's make it open source for and let's make it open source for and let's make it open source for everyone. everyone. everyone. Okay? and they might get much higher Okay? and they might get much higher Okay? and they might get much higher usage and they'll get their productivity usage and they'll get their productivity usage and they'll get their productivity gains through the usage gains through the usage gains through the usage and we have a profit system to pay back. and we have a profit system to pay back. and we have a profit system to pay back. Okay. Well, now we're in one world. How Okay. Well, now we're in one world. How Okay. Well, now we're in one world. How do you compete in that world? What do do you compete in that world? What do do you compete in that world? What do you do with that? In other words, just you do with that? In other words, just you do with that? In other words, just imagine that their technologies are imagine that their technologies are imagine that their technologies are almost as good as ours because they are. almost as good as ours because they are. almost as good as ours because they are. They're not far behind. and um and and They're not far behind. and um and and They're not far behind. and um and and then but that you could get them for then but that you could get them for then but that you could get them for free open source. free open source. free open source. Okay. Now you got to pay it back. Okay. Okay. Now you got to pay it back. Okay. Okay. Now you got to pay it back. Okay. So I just want to emphasize So I just want to emphasize So I just want to emphasize that these are also systematic risks that these are also systematic risks that these are also systematic risks that enter into the picture of of AI. that enter into the picture of of AI. that enter into the picture of of AI. But you certainly yeah there are a lot But you certainly yeah there are a lot But you certainly yeah there are a lot of unknowns here. As we wrap, looking of unknowns here. As we wrap, looking of unknowns here. As we wrap, looking back on the history of this nation, I back on the history of this nation, I back on the history of this nation, I ask myself the question a lot. How did ask myself the question a lot. How did ask myself the question a lot. How did we get to the point that we've gotten to we get to the point that we've gotten to we get to the point that we've gotten to in terms of the amount of debt, the in terms of the amount of debt, the in terms of the amount of debt, the amount of government spending, the role amount of government spending, the role amount of government spending, the role that the central bank has played, and that the central bank has played, and that the central bank has played, and the risks that we find ourselves in the risks that we find ourselves in the risks that we find ourselves in today that all seem largely avoidable if today that all seem largely avoidable if today that all seem largely avoidable if we hadn't taken or made the decisions we we hadn't taken or made the decisions we we hadn't taken or made the decisions we made along the way. You've highlighted made along the way. You've highlighted made along the way. You've highlighted that they repeat over and over again. that they repeat over and over again. that they repeat over and over again. But if you could go back and restructure But if you could go back and restructure But if you could go back and restructure the United States and be a founding the United States and be a founding the United States and be a founding father and write the Constitution father and write the Constitution father and write the Constitution yourself, what are one to three things yourself, what are one to three things yourself, what are one to three things that you would have done differently? that you would have done differently? that you would have done differently? What would you have written into the What would you have written into the What would you have written into the Constitution that may have prevented us Constitution that may have prevented us Constitution that may have prevented us from getting into the situation that from getting into the situation that from getting into the situation that we're in today? we're in today? we're in today? >> Well, the uh I mean it's like the >> Well, the uh I mean it's like the >> Well, the uh I mean it's like the marshmallow test. You know the marshmallow test. You know the marshmallow test. You know the marshmallow test? You know, you want to marshmallow test? You know, you want to marshmallow test? You know, you want to see it as a kid going at early age. you see it as a kid going at early age. you see it as a kid going at early age. you uh give them the choice between one uh give them the choice between one uh give them the choice between one marshmallow now and two marshmallows in marshmallow now and two marshmallows in marshmallow now and two marshmallows in 20 minutes and the kid that chooses the 20 minutes and the kid that chooses the 20 minutes and the kid that chooses the two marshmallows in 20 minutes is going two marshmallows in 20 minutes is going two marshmallows in 20 minutes is going to have a better life and make better to have a better life and make better to have a better life and make better decisions kind of thing. Um I mean that decisions kind of thing. Um I mean that decisions kind of thing. Um I mean that therein lies our problem the immediate therein lies our problem the immediate therein lies our problem the immediate gratification and also the not knowing gratification and also the not knowing gratification and also the not knowing if things are going to be productive but if things are going to be productive but if things are going to be productive but the system has been remarkably adaptable the system has been remarkably adaptable the system has been remarkably adaptable too. In other words, we've gone through too. In other words, we've gone through too. In other words, we've gone through crisises, we've wiped out debts, and crisises, we've wiped out debts, and crisises, we've wiped out debts, and we've gotten past it. And there are we've gotten past it. And there are we've gotten past it. And there are certain ways of getting past it. But certain ways of getting past it. But certain ways of getting past it. But you, you know, it's a it's a tough you, you know, it's a it's a tough you, you know, it's a it's a tough question to balance um financial question to balance um financial question to balance um financial prudence with uh innovative inventions, prudence with uh innovative inventions, prudence with uh innovative inventions, you know, uh because you like you know, uh because you like you know, uh because you like particularly like take AI now. Nobody particularly like take AI now. Nobody particularly like take AI now. Nobody knows what's going to come of it and and knows what's going to come of it and and knows what's going to come of it and and what what way, right? Is it going to what what way, right? Is it going to what what way, right? Is it going to pay? Is it not going to pay? And all of pay? Is it not going to pay? And all of pay? Is it not going to pay? And all of that. And so what do you write into uh that. And so what do you write into uh that. And so what do you write into uh the law that uh is going to get you the law that uh is going to get you the law that uh is going to get you financial prudence and control? And do financial prudence and control? And do financial prudence and control? And do you when you write it into the law, does you when you write it into the law, does you when you write it into the law, does that lessen the experimentation that lessen the experimentation that lessen the experimentation and you know the entrepreneurship and and you know the entrepreneurship and and you know the entrepreneurship and all of the things that you know? So it's all of the things that you know? So it's all of the things that you know? So it's tough to do this with um with rules. I tough to do this with um with rules. I tough to do this with um with rules. I think maybe the main thing is I would think maybe the main thing is I would think maybe the main thing is I would say read history. Read history and know say read history. Read history and know say read history. Read history and know these things and try to get that balance these things and try to get that balance these things and try to get that balance right. You know, um everything's a right. You know, um everything's a right. You know, um everything's a matter of the balance. So the balance of matter of the balance. So the balance of matter of the balance. So the balance of the pain of failing or the pain of let the pain of failing or the pain of let the pain of failing or the pain of let putting money into a something that putting money into a something that putting money into a something that fails. fails. fails. >> Well, Ray, I want to thank you once >> Well, Ray, I want to thank you once >> Well, Ray, I want to thank you once again for taking the time to be here again for taking the time to be here again for taking the time to be here with me. It's always great to catch up, with me. It's always great to catch up, with me. It's always great to catch up, hear your perspective. Obviously, so hear your perspective. Obviously, so hear your perspective. Obviously, so much has changed in the last year and much has changed in the last year and much has changed in the last year and yet so much hasn't. It's been great to yet so much hasn't. It's been great to yet so much hasn't. It's been great to to get your view on it and I think it's to get your view on it and I think it's to get your view on it and I think it's really helpful to do this. So, so thanks really helpful to do this. So, so thanks really helpful to do this. So, so thanks so much so much so much >> and and thank you for what you guys do. >> and and thank you for what you guys do. >> and and thank you for what you guys do. I'm I'm I'm riveted to your program and I'm I'm I'm riveted to your program and I'm I'm I'm riveted to your program and um I think you make a great um I think you make a great um I think you make a great contribution. Um so conversations like contribution. Um so conversations like contribution. Um so conversations like this are are really practical helps for this are are really practical helps for this are are really practical helps for a lot of people. So anyway, thank you a lot of people. So anyway, thank you a lot of people. So anyway, thank you for letting me participate and uh thank for letting me participate and uh thank for letting me participate and uh thank you for what you do for a lot of people. you for what you do for a lot of people. you for what you do for a lot of people. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. >> That's right. I'm going all in.