Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading & AOC Might Win It All in 2028

Partisanship is the gravity that Partisanship is the gravity that dictates every election in the US, dictates every election in the US, dictates every election in the US, right? Like my job, don't worry, I will right? Like my job, don't worry, I will right? Like my job, don't worry, I will get criticized if if we say, "Oh, get criticized if if we say, "Oh, get criticized if if we say, "Oh, whatever, Gavin Newsom or AOC is a 55% whatever, Gavin Newsom or AOC is a 55% whatever, Gavin Newsom or AOC is a 55% favorite and they lose." But like but 43 favorite and they lose." But like but 43 favorite and they lose." But like but 43 of the 50 states say that we could of the 50 states say that we could of the 50 states say that we could probably predict right now with 97% probably predict right now with 97% probably predict right now with 97% confidence who they'll vote for in 2028. confidence who they'll vote for in 2028. confidence who they'll vote for in 2028. And it's not because of rigging, it's And it's not because of rigging, it's And it's not because of rigging, it's because polarization and partisanship because polarization and partisanship because polarization and partisanship are very powerful forces that we can't are very powerful forces that we can't are very powerful forces that we can't seem to to escape from. seem to to escape from. seem to to escape from. >> I'm going all in. >> Starting a business usually means >> Starting a business usually means juggling a bunch of different services juggling a bunch of different services juggling a bunch of different services just to look legit. Not anymore. With just to look legit. Not anymore. With just to look legit. Not anymore. With Northwest Registered Agent, you get a Northwest Registered Agent, you get a Northwest Registered Agent, you get a complete business identity all in one complete business identity all in one complete business identity all in one place. 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Visit northwestregisteredagent.com/allinfree and start using free resources to build and start using free resources to build your business today. your business today. your business today. >> I'm going all in. >> I'm going all in. >> I'm going all in. >> All right, everybody, welcome back to >> All right, everybody, welcome back to >> All right, everybody, welcome back to the All-In Interview program. We are the All-In Interview program. We are the All-In Interview program. We are delighted today to have the one, the delighted today to have the one, the delighted today to have the one, the only Nate Silver on the program. only Nate Silver on the program. only Nate Silver on the program. Gambler, statistician, podcaster, Gambler, statistician, podcaster, Gambler, statistician, podcaster, Substacker. Go subscribe right now for a Substacker. Go subscribe right now for a Substacker. Go subscribe right now for a hundy. Quick hundy at silverbulletin hundy. Quick hundy at silverbulletin hundy. Quick hundy at silverbulletin over at Substack. It's a great Substack. over at Substack. It's a great Substack. over at Substack. It's a great Substack. How you doing, brother? Nice to see you How you doing, brother? Nice to see you How you doing, brother? Nice to see you with your Knicks hat on. with your Knicks hat on. with your Knicks hat on. >> I'm good. You know, I think I have like >> I'm good. You know, I think I have like >> I'm good. You know, I think I have like one more week to wear the Knicks hat. one more week to wear the Knicks hat. one more week to wear the Knicks hat. It's a little bulky, not super podcast It's a little bulky, not super podcast It's a little bulky, not super podcast video friendly. But I I you know, once video friendly. But I I you know, once video friendly. But I I you know, once in 53 years, once in my lifetime at in 53 years, once in my lifetime at in 53 years, once in my lifetime at least. least. least. >> go to any of the playoff games? >> go to any of the playoff games? >> go to any of the playoff games? >> I went to a bunch of the Philly series. >> I went to a bunch of the Philly series. >> I went to a bunch of the Philly series. I went to I think as Jason did, I was in I went to I think as Jason did, I was in I went to I think as Jason did, I was in Philly for like the New York City Philly for like the New York City Philly for like the New York City takeover of Wells Fargo Arena or takeover of Wells Fargo Arena or takeover of Wells Fargo Arena or whatever the hell called now, Infinity whatever the hell called now, Infinity whatever the hell called now, Infinity or something. or something. or something. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Um I went to the Trump game, which was >> Um I went to the Trump game, which was >> Um I went to the Trump game, which was not the right game to go to, but I not the right game to go to, but I not the right game to go to, but I wanted to be there. I wanted to kind of wanted to be there. I wanted to kind of wanted to be there. I wanted to kind of cover it for my readers. I felt like it cover it for my readers. I felt like it cover it for my readers. I felt like it was a moment where New York might was a moment where New York might was a moment where New York might triumph out of this show that it triumph out of this show that it triumph out of this show that it was to get into the arena. was to get into the arena. was to get into the arena. It was a little It was a little It was a little >> show up what, 2 hours early to get in? 3 >> show up what, 2 hours early to get in? 3 >> show up what, 2 hours early to get in? 3 hours? hours? hours? >> I am I am not a particularly prompt >> I am I am not a particularly prompt >> I am I am not a particularly prompt person. No, I got I'm not wasn't going person. No, I got I'm not wasn't going person. No, I got I'm not wasn't going to miss So I got there at like 6:00, to miss So I got there at like 6:00, to miss So I got there at like 6:00, 6:05 for an 8:30 game. Lined up, you're 6:05 for an 8:30 game. Lined up, you're 6:05 for an 8:30 game. Lined up, you're supposed to get in on 6th Avenue and supposed to get in on 6th Avenue and supposed to get in on 6th Avenue and 33rd, and I was like on 6th and 30th or 33rd, and I was like on 6th and 30th or 33rd, and I was like on 6th and 30th or 29th. It wasn't the worst It wasn't the 29th. It wasn't the worst It wasn't the 29th. It wasn't the worst It wasn't the least efficient process I've ever seen. least efficient process I've ever seen. least efficient process I've ever seen. New York has a way of getting things New York has a way of getting things New York has a way of getting things done, and you just kind of like done, and you just kind of like done, and you just kind of like >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> follow people and and once you get in, I >> follow people and and once you get in, I >> follow people and and once you get in, I mean, it was like literally TSA mean, it was like literally TSA mean, it was like literally TSA security. They like literally like look security. They like literally like look security. They like literally like look at your wallet by hand, and they take at your wallet by hand, and they take at your wallet by hand, and they take your lighters and and and your pens and your lighters and and and your pens and your lighters and and and your pens and your vapes and everything like that. And your vapes and everything like that. And your vapes and everything like that. And once you get in, it was pretty normal. I once you get in, it was pretty normal. I once you get in, it was pretty normal. I did feel like the crowd was did feel like the crowd was did feel like the crowd was a little bit fatigued by the second a little bit fatigued by the second a little bit fatigued by the second questionable officiating decisions. officiating decisions. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Did you bet any of the games? And like Did you bet any of the games? And like Did you bet any of the games? And like did you find the odds were off anywhere? did you find the odds were off anywhere? did you find the odds were off anywhere? >> I had the Knicks to win the Eastern >> I had the Knicks to win the Eastern >> I had the Knicks to win the Eastern Conference Finals, and then after they Conference Finals, and then after they Conference Finals, and then after they wrapped up their series, I bet them to wrapped up their series, I bet them to wrapped up their series, I bet them to win the finals against either OKC or San win the finals against either OKC or San win the finals against either OKC or San Antonio. So I actually I The ticket was Antonio. So I actually I The ticket was Antonio. So I actually I The ticket was not cheap. I paid It would not cover not cheap. I paid It would not cover not cheap. I paid It would not cover Jason's tickets, but I was able to cover Jason's tickets, but I was able to cover Jason's tickets, but I was able to cover cover my 200-level [clears throat] Bulls cover my 200-level [clears throat] Bulls cover my 200-level [clears throat] Bulls seat with the profits from from those seat with the profits from from those seat with the profits from from those non-homer bets. I thought the Knicks non-homer bets. I thought the Knicks non-homer bets. I thought the Knicks were legitimately overlooked in the were legitimately overlooked in the were legitimately overlooked in the East, and when you see a team that wins, East, and when you see a team that wins, East, and when you see a team that wins, like that game against Atlanta where we like that game against Atlanta where we like that game against Atlanta where we were up like literally like 77 to 22 were up like literally like 77 to 22 were up like literally like 77 to 22 >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. I was like I was like I was like >> I'm like As someone who like studies >> I'm like As someone who like studies >> I'm like As someone who like studies this stuff and builds models, to see this stuff and builds models, to see this stuff and builds models, to see that kind of signature significance for that kind of signature significance for that kind of signature significance for that level of dominance over whatever it that level of dominance over whatever it that level of dominance over whatever it was four rounds of the playoffs, like was four rounds of the playoffs, like was four rounds of the playoffs, like that's that's real. That's like not that's that's real. That's like not that's that's real. That's like not noise. noise. noise. >> Do you bet prediction markets, or how do >> Do you bet prediction markets, or how do >> Do you bet prediction markets, or how do you bet? you bet? you bet? >> Big Tony. If >> Big Tony. If >> Big Tony. If >> [clears throat] >> [clears throat] >> [clears throat] >> If you are I don't bet through Big Tony. >> If you are I don't bet through Big Tony. >> If you are I don't bet through Big Tony. If you are someone who's perceived so If you are someone who's perceived so If you are someone who's perceived so I've been limited I've been limited I've been limited by DraftKings and and MGM, a lot of the by DraftKings and and MGM, a lot of the by DraftKings and and MGM, a lot of the uh traditional retail sportsbooks limit uh traditional retail sportsbooks limit uh traditional retail sportsbooks limit you. The prediction markets do not. I you. The prediction markets do not. I you. The prediction markets do not. I consult for Polymarket, I should say. consult for Polymarket, I should say. consult for Polymarket, I should say. So, if you're a sharp better, I have So, if you're a sharp better, I have So, if you're a sharp better, I have other issues believe me with the other issues believe me with the other issues believe me with the prediction markets, but if you are a prediction markets, but if you are a prediction markets, but if you are a sharp better, then it becomes easier to sharp better, then it becomes easier to sharp better, then it becomes easier to just concentrate your activity on the just concentrate your activity on the just concentrate your activity on the prediction markets where, you know, you prediction markets where, you know, you prediction markets where, you know, you have very smart people, you have hedge have very smart people, you have hedge have very smart people, you have hedge funds who are probably making bets in funds who are probably making bets in funds who are probably making bets in these markets more and more, but yeah, these markets more and more, but yeah, these markets more and more, but yeah, more more and more. I don't want to go more more and more. I don't want to go more more and more. I don't want to go through the rigmarole of like, can I through the rigmarole of like, can I through the rigmarole of like, can I even get my money down? So, I I will even get my money down? So, I I will even get my money down? So, I I will admit I've gravitated toward toward admit I've gravitated toward toward admit I've gravitated toward toward those, yes. those, yes. those, yes. >> And uh when you look at this team, what >> And uh when you look at this team, what >> And uh when you look at this team, what do you attribute cuz obviously during do you attribute cuz obviously during do you attribute cuz obviously during the season the season the season it was up and down. We were 15 games it was up and down. We were 15 games it was up and down. We were 15 games from the end of the season. People are from the end of the season. People are from the end of the season. People are like, hey, we got to trade for Giannis. like, hey, we got to trade for Giannis. like, hey, we got to trade for Giannis. We got to get Kat out of here. But in We got to get Kat out of here. But in We got to get Kat out of here. But in January, February, we had this January, February, we had this January, February, we had this incredible run where we had used Kat as incredible run where we had used Kat as incredible run where we had used Kat as the set point center. And then we backed the set point center. And then we backed the set point center. And then we backed off of it and I was on Knicks Fan TV off of it and I was on Knicks Fan TV off of it and I was on Knicks Fan TV talking with like the real deep folks talking with like the real deep folks talking with like the real deep folks and there was speculation like they and there was speculation like they and there was speculation like they figured it out and they're like, let's figured it out and they're like, let's figured it out and they're like, let's hold this play. Mike Brown said, let's hold this play. Mike Brown said, let's hold this play. Mike Brown said, let's hold Kat at the point from, you know, hold Kat at the point from, you know, hold Kat at the point from, you know, until the playoffs cuz we know it works until the playoffs cuz we know it works until the playoffs cuz we know it works so good. But what makes this team so so good. But what makes this team so so good. But what makes this team so special? Is it the wings? Is it just special? Is it the wings? Is it just special? Is it the wings? Is it just Brunson's grit? Is it the three-point Brunson's grit? Is it the three-point Brunson's grit? Is it the three-point shooting across the team? Selflessness, shooting across the team? Selflessness, shooting across the team? Selflessness, ball movement, there's so many things ball movement, there's so many things ball movement, there's so many things people talk about here with this team. people talk about here with this team. people talk about here with this team. >> I think it's Mike Brown and Kat. I'm not >> I think it's Mike Brown and Kat. I'm not >> I think it's Mike Brown and Kat. I'm not saying they're the most important saying they're the most important saying they're the most important components of the Knicks, I'm saying components of the Knicks, I'm saying components of the Knicks, I'm saying they're those are the deltas where they're those are the deltas where they're those are the deltas where things changed the most. Um things changed the most. Um things changed the most. Um on defense, a couple of things. Number on defense, a couple of things. Number on defense, a couple of things. Number one, you have I love Jalen Brunson, one, you have I love Jalen Brunson, one, you have I love Jalen Brunson, might be my favorite player. Um he's not might be my favorite player. Um he's not might be my favorite player. Um he's not a terrific one-on-one defender. He gets a terrific one-on-one defender. He gets a terrific one-on-one defender. He gets a few steals, but like he's undersized. a few steals, but like he's undersized. a few steals, but like he's undersized. The low center of gravity somehow The low center of gravity somehow The low center of gravity somehow doesn't work on defense as well, but doesn't work on defense as well, but doesn't work on defense as well, but like every other defender on the Knicks, like every other defender on the Knicks, like every other defender on the Knicks, including Towns, which is a the dis- including Towns, which is a the dis- including Towns, which is a the dis- descended point of view are are at least descended point of view are are at least descended point of view are are at least average if not better and so like kind average if not better and so like kind average if not better and so like kind of figuring out that system by the way of figuring out that system by the way of figuring out that system by the way when you rely on a defensive system that when you rely on a defensive system that when you rely on a defensive system that requires high effort and transition play requires high effort and transition play requires high effort and transition play not playing your guys 37 minutes per not playing your guys 37 minutes per not playing your guys 37 minutes per game against like the Charlotte Hornets game against like the Charlotte Hornets game against like the Charlotte Hornets in the regular season probably a smart in the regular season probably a smart in the regular season probably a smart move um move um move um >> Yeah, this is why Tibs had to go when >> Yeah, this is why Tibs had to go when >> Yeah, this is why Tibs had to go when you look back on it Tibs going who you look back on it Tibs going who you look back on it Tibs going who ground these guys into submission for ground these guys into submission for ground these guys into submission for three seasons and they were three seasons and they were three seasons and they were yeah it was like we were down one two or yeah it was like we were down one two or yeah it was like we were down one two or three starters for every round of the three starters for every round of the three starters for every round of the previous playoffs yeah. previous playoffs yeah. previous playoffs yeah. >> Yeah, I remember going to the Indiana I >> Yeah, I remember going to the Indiana I >> Yeah, I remember going to the Indiana I guess game seven of the semi-finals guess game seven of the semi-finals guess game seven of the semi-finals against Indiana in 2024 you kind of see against Indiana in 2024 you kind of see against Indiana in 2024 you kind of see like OG was hobbling around out there I like OG was hobbling around out there I like OG was hobbling around out there I guess Josh Hart kind of valiantly played guess Josh Hart kind of valiantly played guess Josh Hart kind of valiantly played and you're like these guys are like an and you're like these guys are like an and you're like these guys are like an infirmary ward. infirmary ward. infirmary ward. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> Um and especially because you're relying >> Um and especially because you're relying >> Um and especially because you're relying on smart high effort defense so that on smart high effort defense so that on smart high effort defense so that part of defense and low-key they became part of defense and low-key they became part of defense and low-key they became like a much better defensive team in the like a much better defensive team in the like a much better defensive team in the second half right? Um I remember also second half right? Um I remember also second half right? Um I remember also going this year to the Knicks Nets game going this year to the Knicks Nets game going this year to the Knicks Nets game in December or January not the most fun in December or January not the most fun in December or January not the most fun part of the year in New York where um part of the year in New York where um part of the year in New York where um where they had lost like seven or nine where they had lost like seven or nine where they had lost like seven or nine games and there was all the talk about games and there was all the talk about games and there was all the talk about like Kat being traded and I just wanted like Kat being traded and I just wanted like Kat being traded and I just wanted to go and check out the vibe. I actually to go and check out the vibe. I actually to go and check out the vibe. I actually bet on the Knicks to win by like 15 bet on the Knicks to win by like 15 bet on the Knicks to win by like 15 points or more because I thought this is points or more because I thought this is points or more because I thought this is either going to be like the beginning of either going to be like the beginning of either going to be like the beginning of the end for this regime or it's going to the end for this regime or it's going to the end for this regime or it's going to be a turnaround game against you know a be a turnaround game against you know a be a turnaround game against you know a team that's trying to lose frankly a team that's trying to lose frankly a team that's trying to lose frankly a cross town rival is trying to lose. And cross town rival is trying to lose. And cross town rival is trying to lose. And the fans were like pretty tolerant of the fans were like pretty tolerant of the fans were like pretty tolerant of Kat. They wound up winning by like 60 Kat. They wound up winning by like 60 Kat. They wound up winning by like 60 points or something totally absurd or points or something totally absurd or points or something totally absurd or held the Nets to one of the lowest held the Nets to one of the lowest held the Nets to one of the lowest scores in the modern NBA era and like scores in the modern NBA era and like scores in the modern NBA era and like that team from there they by the way that team from there they by the way that team from there they by the way they won the NBA Cup. they won the NBA Cup. they won the NBA Cup. >> Yep. >> Yep. >> Yep. >> But like in the second half they had >> But like in the second half they had >> But like in the second half they had something like the fifth best defense in something like the fifth best defense in something like the fifth best defense in the NBA they had the best defense in the the NBA they had the best defense in the the NBA they had the best defense in the NBA in the playoffs I mean not NBA in the playoffs I mean not NBA in the playoffs I mean not sustainable but like but that on defense sustainable but like but that on defense sustainable but like but that on defense and then Kat presenting like again like and then Kat presenting like again like and then Kat presenting like again like I love Jalen Brunson. The offense can be I love Jalen Brunson. The offense can be I love Jalen Brunson. The offense can be a little bit predictable. Maybe in a little bit predictable. Maybe in a little bit predictable. Maybe in clutch possessions. Yeah, right. clutch possessions. Yeah, right. clutch possessions. Yeah, right. And it's amazing that Jalen Brunson I And it's amazing that Jalen Brunson I And it's amazing that Jalen Brunson I mean he shot like 53% between 16 and 22 mean he shot like 53% between 16 and 22 mean he shot like 53% between 16 and 22 feet, which is kind of insane given that feet, which is kind of insane given that feet, which is kind of insane given that you know it's coming. It's like Mariano you know it's coming. It's like Mariano you know it's coming. It's like Mariano Rivera's like cut fastball. You know Rivera's like cut fastball. You know Rivera's like cut fastball. You know it's coming. Um but just to have more it's coming. Um but just to have more it's coming. Um but just to have more optionality and variety in the offense optionality and variety in the offense optionality and variety in the offense and to have more ball movement. So to and to have more ball movement. So to and to have more ball movement. So to have those two spontaneous things have those two spontaneous things have those two spontaneous things happen, the coaching system let him happen, the coaching system let him happen, the coaching system let him improve on defense plus like Cat having improve on defense plus like Cat having improve on defense plus like Cat having a revelation. Like I think he's like one a revelation. Like I think he's like one a revelation. Like I think he's like one of the of the of the 15 best players in the league. He was 15 best players in the league. He was 15 best players in the league. He was rated as like Yeah. He's a really good rated as like Yeah. He's a really good rated as like Yeah. He's a really good player. And so those two things player. And so those two things player. And so those two things combined, it you know, combined, it you know, combined, it you know, a little bit unusual for a veteran team a little bit unusual for a veteran team a little bit unusual for a veteran team granted, but spontaneous improvement on granted, but spontaneous improvement on granted, but spontaneous improvement on both sides of the ball um both sides of the ball um both sides of the ball um coupled with the Knicks by the way have coupled with the Knicks by the way have coupled with the Knicks by the way have the most playoff games out of any team the most playoff games out of any team the most playoff games out of any team in the past four years. More than in the past four years. More than in the past four years. More than Boston, more than OKC, a lot more than Boston, more than OKC, a lot more than Boston, more than OKC, a lot more than San Antonio. There is empirical evidence San Antonio. There is empirical evidence San Antonio. There is empirical evidence that playoff experience does matter. Um that playoff experience does matter. Um that playoff experience does matter. Um this comes up in in poker too. If you this comes up in in poker too. If you this comes up in in poker too. If you are in are in are in your first big tournament and maybe your first big tournament and maybe your first big tournament and maybe you're rated the GPI number one player you're rated the GPI number one player you're rated the GPI number one player and you're playing in the main event of and you're playing in the main event of and you're playing in the main event of the World Series of Poker, the World Series of Poker, the World Series of Poker, nerves are a thing. Even in golf, nerves nerves are a thing. Even in golf, nerves nerves are a thing. Even in golf, nerves are a huge thing. It's a physical ordeal are a huge thing. It's a physical ordeal are a huge thing. It's a physical ordeal almost and like you're operating on almost and like you're operating on almost and like you're operating on different operating system and to have different operating system and to have different operating system and to have had experience in a lot of high stakes had experience in a lot of high stakes had experience in a lot of high stakes games, not all of which were wins, but games, not all of which were wins, but games, not all of which were wins, but like it really does it really does help like it really does it really does help like it really does it really does help and and Wemby and and Wemby and and Wemby >> Those two comebacks from the Pacers game >> Those two comebacks from the Pacers game >> Those two comebacks from the Pacers game from the Boston games where we just from the Boston games where we just from the Boston games where we just broke their backs last year. That I broke their backs last year. That I broke their backs last year. That I think made it obvious to anybody when think made it obvious to anybody when think made it obvious to anybody when we're down 10-15 points, that's not a we're down 10-15 points, that's not a we're down 10-15 points, that's not a lead against the Knicks. The Knicks are lead against the Knicks. The Knicks are lead against the Knicks. The Knicks are going to come back. We're just that going to come back. We're just that going to come back. We're just that good. good. good. Um and it's just fantastic now that the Um and it's just fantastic now that the Um and it's just fantastic now that the entire league has to plan, entire league has to plan, entire league has to plan, how do they beat the Knicks? We spent how do they beat the Knicks? We spent how do they beat the Knicks? We spent the last like five or six years, how do the last like five or six years, how do the last like five or six years, how do we get through Boston? How how we get we get through Boston? How how we get we get through Boston? How how we get through this team? Now the entire league through this team? Now the entire league through this team? Now the entire league has to do that. All right. We should get has to do that. All right. We should get has to do that. All right. We should get started here. We got so much to talk started here. We got so much to talk started here. We got so much to talk about and obviously you specialize in about and obviously you specialize in about and obviously you specialize in elections. We have the midterms coming elections. We have the midterms coming elections. We have the midterms coming up. We're going to talk about 2028 up. We're going to talk about 2028 up. We're going to talk about 2028 post-Trump world, all of that. But we post-Trump world, all of that. But we post-Trump world, all of that. But we just concluded an election. An election just concluded an election. An election just concluded an election. An election which which which I don't want to speak for Dave, but you I don't want to speak for Dave, but you I don't want to speak for Dave, but you may have seen or heard the podcast where may have seen or heard the podcast where may have seen or heard the podcast where he was like, "Hey, this he was like, "Hey, this he was like, "Hey, this is not illegal, but it is not illegal, but it is not illegal, but it doesn't feel like a real election." Take doesn't feel like a real election." Take doesn't feel like a real election." Take us through what happened in your us through what happened in your us through what happened in your estimation in California with Spencer estimation in California with Spencer estimation in California with Spencer Pratt. Fraud, just mail-in ballots. Pratt. Fraud, just mail-in ballots. Pratt. Fraud, just mail-in ballots. >> Yeah, that was just the LA election, >> Yeah, that was just the LA election, >> Yeah, that was just the LA election, Jason, just to be clear. Jason, just to be clear. Jason, just to be clear. >> Yeah, just to be with LA, but go ahead, >> Yeah, just to be with LA, but go ahead, >> Yeah, just to be with LA, but go ahead, build on it. Yeah. build on it. Yeah. build on it. Yeah. >> The question that I wanted to talk to >> The question that I wanted to talk to >> The question that I wanted to talk to you about, Nate, is when you look at the you about, Nate, is when you look at the you about, Nate, is when you look at the in-person return data in-person return data in-person return data and then you look at the early mail-in and then you look at the early mail-in and then you look at the early mail-in data and then the late mail-in data data and then the late mail-in data data and then the late mail-in data where suddenly Nithya Raman has this where suddenly Nithya Raman has this where suddenly Nithya Raman has this massive surge and there's this huge massive surge and there's this huge massive surge and there's this huge statistical difference statistical difference statistical difference as the ballots start to get counted in as the ballots start to get counted in as the ballots start to get counted in the days and weeks that follow, she the days and weeks that follow, she the days and weeks that follow, she wins. wins. wins. It seems very improbable that there's a It seems very improbable that there's a It seems very improbable that there's a true statistical difference in the true statistical difference in the true statistical difference in the population that might population that might population that might you know, be in-person, mail-in in early you know, be in-person, mail-in in early you know, be in-person, mail-in in early and mail-in late. And I just wanted to and mail-in late. And I just wanted to and mail-in late. And I just wanted to get your read on that. get your read on that. get your read on that. >> So, I'd say I think there's no evidence >> So, I'd say I think there's no evidence >> So, I'd say I think there's no evidence of fraud is the short summary version. of fraud is the short summary version. of fraud is the short summary version. The mistake that can be made is to The mistake that can be made is to The mistake that can be made is to assume that each ballot like comes in assume that each ballot like comes in assume that each ballot like comes in independently when there are systematic independently when there are systematic independently when there are systematic differences between groups and when they differences between groups and when they differences between groups and when they tend to cast their ballots. So, tend to cast their ballots. So, tend to cast their ballots. So, Democrats Democrats Democrats have long been encouraged to vote by have long been encouraged to vote by have long been encouraged to vote by mail. Actually, it used to be more of a mail. Actually, it used to be more of a mail. Actually, it used to be more of a Republican thing, but like under Trump Republican thing, but like under Trump Republican thing, but like under Trump who discouraged mail voting in 2016 and who discouraged mail voting in 2016 and who discouraged mail voting in 2016 and 2020 um and 2024 to some extent, like 2020 um and 2024 to some extent, like 2020 um and 2024 to some extent, like that shifted. So, look, I think that shifted. So, look, I think that shifted. So, look, I think California's system California's system California's system is completely unacceptable. I've done um is completely unacceptable. I've done um is completely unacceptable. I've done um some consulting work on like the Indian some consulting work on like the Indian some consulting work on like the Indian election where you like literally have election where you like literally have election where you like literally have polling stations in the Himalayas and polling stations in the Himalayas and polling stations in the Himalayas and they actually stagger their elections, they actually stagger their elections, they actually stagger their elections, but once but once but once election day happens, they count their election day happens, they count their election day happens, they count their vote within 24 hours. I think it's vote within 24 hours. I think it's vote within 24 hours. I think it's ridiculous and very failed state that ridiculous and very failed state that ridiculous and very failed state that California takes longer than that. But California takes longer than that. But California takes longer than that. But if you have one party who systematically if you have one party who systematically if you have one party who systematically tends to vote later, also Democrats in tends to vote later, also Democrats in tends to vote later, also Democrats in both the LA race and the governorship both the LA race and the governorship both the LA race and the governorship had more of a choice to make. Uh, you had more of a choice to make. Uh, you had more of a choice to make. Uh, you know, it wasn't clear, you know, for a know, it wasn't clear, you know, for a know, it wasn't clear, you know, for a while it looked like Eric Swalwell was while it looked like Eric Swalwell was while it looked like Eric Swalwell was going to was going to win and then Katie going to was going to win and then Katie going to was going to win and then Katie Porter and then and then and then, you Porter and then and then and then, you Porter and then and then and then, you know, Becerra finally emerges. Becerra, know, Becerra finally emerges. Becerra, know, Becerra finally emerges. Becerra, like, look, my dad like, look, my dad like, look, my dad is from LA. I spent a lot of time in is from LA. I spent a lot of time in is from LA. I spent a lot of time in California, and I am all on board with California, and I am all on board with California, and I am all on board with the criticisms of how the state is being the criticisms of how the state is being the criticisms of how the state is being governed, at least in parts of the governed, at least in parts of the governed, at least in parts of the state. I was in um state. I was in um state. I was in um San Diego for New Year's. San Diego for New Year's. San Diego for New Year's. And beautiful time of year to be in San And beautiful time of year to be in San And beautiful time of year to be in San Diego and like you can like literally Diego and like you can like literally Diego and like you can like literally run on the sand and the beach and run on the sand and the beach and run on the sand and the beach and everyone's kind of like hot and you have everyone's kind of like hot and you have everyone's kind of like hot and you have good fish tacos and everything else. good fish tacos and everything else. good fish tacos and everything else. Like that I kind of understood the Like that I kind of understood the Like that I kind of understood the California California California of like my youth or my dad's youth or of like my youth or my dad's youth or of like my youth or my dad's youth or whatever else and understand the appeal whatever else and understand the appeal whatever else and understand the appeal of the state and I understand why LA and of the state and I understand why LA and of the state and I understand why LA and SF, I think LA in particular kind of SF, I think LA in particular kind of SF, I think LA in particular kind of never really recovered from the never really recovered from the never really recovered from the pandemic. We can talk about that. At the pandemic. We can talk about that. At the pandemic. We can talk about that. At the same time, it's a very partisan state. same time, it's a very partisan state. same time, it's a very partisan state. We have very partisan Democrats like We have very partisan Democrats like We have very partisan Democrats like Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom who Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom who Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom who emerged in the state. We saw in the emerged in the state. We saw in the emerged in the state. We saw in the redistricting referendum, I guess it was redistricting referendum, I guess it was redistricting referendum, I guess it was in 2025, how like you can debate whether in 2025, how like you can debate whether in 2025, how like you can debate whether it's a good idea or not, but like that it's a good idea or not, but like that it's a good idea or not, but like that traced with a Democratic margin in traced with a Democratic margin in traced with a Democratic margin in presidential years very strongly, even presidential years very strongly, even presidential years very strongly, even though for many years Democrats have though for many years Democrats have though for many years Democrats have been the party against gerrymandering. been the party against gerrymandering. been the party against gerrymandering. Um, it's a capital D Democratic state. Um, it's a capital D Democratic state. Um, it's a capital D Democratic state. It's not an idiosyncratic blue state It's not an idiosyncratic blue state It's not an idiosyncratic blue state like Maine or something. And like so like Maine or something. And like so like Maine or something. And like so like to expect even a very talented like to expect even a very talented like to expect even a very talented Republican like Spencer Pratt to win the Republican like Spencer Pratt to win the Republican like Spencer Pratt to win the mayor's ship. I mean, even in New York, mayor's ship. I mean, even in New York, mayor's ship. I mean, even in New York, we have a bit more heterodoxy. we have a bit more heterodoxy. we have a bit more heterodoxy. Historically, we've had a Historically, we've had a Historically, we've had a you know, socialist mayor. We've had you know, socialist mayor. We've had you know, socialist mayor. We've had Michael Bloomberg and Rudy Giuliani in Michael Bloomberg and Rudy Giuliani in Michael Bloomberg and Rudy Giuliani in recent years, too. California is not recent years, too. California is not recent years, too. California is not that way. It's much more of a a machine that way. It's much more of a a machine that way. It's much more of a a machine state. state. state. >> But when you look at that statistical >> But when you look at that statistical >> But when you look at that statistical difference, I I get the idea that difference, I I get the idea that difference, I I get the idea that Democrats mail-in ballots and they show Democrats mail-in ballots and they show Democrats mail-in ballots and they show up late. up late. up late. But when you look at the overwhelming But when you look at the overwhelming But when you look at the overwhelming vote for Nithya Raman over Karen Bass vote for Nithya Raman over Karen Bass vote for Nithya Raman over Karen Bass that happened late in the counting cycle that happened late in the counting cycle that happened late in the counting cycle versus early in the counting cycle and versus early in the counting cycle and versus early in the counting cycle and the statistical kind of shift over that the statistical kind of shift over that the statistical kind of shift over that happened. And you look at the difference happened. And you look at the difference happened. And you look at the difference between in-person and mail-in and being between in-person and mail-in and being between in-person and mail-in and being so statistically different. And I get so statistically different. And I get so statistically different. And I get your point about Republicans are more your point about Republicans are more your point about Republicans are more likely to go in person and maybe you can likely to go in person and maybe you can likely to go in person and maybe you can make that leap there. But the difference make that leap there. But the difference make that leap there. But the difference in the counting that happened over time, in the counting that happened over time, in the counting that happened over time, the ratio just seems so different the ratio just seems so different the ratio just seems so different between Raman and Bass. And then people between Raman and Bass. And then people between Raman and Bass. And then people bring up this idea of ballot harvesting bring up this idea of ballot harvesting bring up this idea of ballot harvesting where there were homeless people from where there were homeless people from where there were homeless people from Skid Row and the number of ballots that Skid Row and the number of ballots that Skid Row and the number of ballots that came from that particular region in the came from that particular region in the came from that particular region in the late mail-in was kind of concentrated late mail-in was kind of concentrated late mail-in was kind of concentrated for Nithya Raman. Do you get a sense for Nithya Raman. Do you get a sense for Nithya Raman. Do you get a sense that that actually is a true that that actually is a true that that actually is a true representation of individual voters and representation of individual voters and representation of individual voters and how they individually voted how they individually voted how they individually voted in that election? in that election? in that election? >> I think the California vote count is an >> I think the California vote count is an >> I think the California vote count is an accurate tally of the votes that were accurate tally of the votes that were accurate tally of the votes that were cast. I mean, yeah, look. cast. I mean, yeah, look. cast. I mean, yeah, look. >> And were those cast mail-in Were they >> And were those cast mail-in Were they >> And were those cast mail-in Were they cast by the individuals that were cast by the individuals that were cast by the individuals that were supposed to cast them? Right? This is supposed to cast them? Right? This is supposed to cast them? Right? This is one of the theories is that there's one of the theories is that there's one of the theories is that there's ballots that are getting filled out en ballots that are getting filled out en ballots that are getting filled out en masse in these ballot harvesting efforts masse in these ballot harvesting efforts masse in these ballot harvesting efforts where people walk around and they say, where people walk around and they say, where people walk around and they say, "Hey, fill out this ballot for this "Hey, fill out this ballot for this "Hey, fill out this ballot for this person and here's a free lunch." Or I person and here's a free lunch." Or I person and here's a free lunch." Or I don't know what's going on. But like don't know what's going on. But like don't know what's going on. But like there's all these videos. I don't know there's all these videos. I don't know there's all these videos. I don't know if they're true or not. if they're true or not. if they're true or not. >> I think there is propaganda around this. >> I think there is propaganda around this. >> I think there is propaganda around this. I also think that like I also think that like I also think that like mail-in voting provides some mail-in voting provides some mail-in voting provides some verification challenges in different verification challenges in different verification challenges in different ways. ways. ways. Uh, you know, I don't inherently see Uh, you know, I don't inherently see Uh, you know, I don't inherently see anything that wrong with a system where anything that wrong with a system where anything that wrong with a system where you go to a physical place to vote and you go to a physical place to vote and you go to a physical place to vote and you sign um, you sign your voter log and you sign um, you sign your voter log and you sign um, you sign your voter log and and whether you show ID or not. And then and whether you show ID or not. And then and whether you show ID or not. And then if you have like a disability or you're if you have like a disability or you're if you have like a disability or you're really in bad straits or you're really in bad straits or you're really in bad straits or you're traveling in Albania or something, then traveling in Albania or something, then traveling in Albania or something, then you can you can you can >> That makes sense. But I want to ask you >> That makes sense. But I want to ask you >> That makes sense. But I want to ask you I just want to ask you the empirical I just want to ask you the empirical I just want to ask you the empirical question. What is the difference in question. What is the difference in question. What is the difference in states or districts or cities that don't states or districts or cities that don't states or districts or cities that don't have voter ID and those that do? have voter ID and those that do? have voter ID and those that do? Politically, like is that basically Politically, like is that basically Politically, like is that basically create a huge over waiting for create a huge over waiting for create a huge over waiting for Democrats? Can you just help us Democrats? Can you just help us Democrats? Can you just help us understand the politics behind this from understand the politics behind this from understand the politics behind this from an empirical perspective, not putting on an empirical perspective, not putting on an empirical perspective, not putting on a spin hat or anything. a spin hat or anything. a spin hat or anything. >> So the theory used to be that Democrats >> So the theory used to be that Democrats >> So the theory used to be that Democrats benefit from higher turnout by kind of benefit from higher turnout by kind of benefit from higher turnout by kind of any means at all. And that was an era any means at all. And that was an era any means at all. And that was an era when Democrats tended to dominate among when Democrats tended to dominate among when Democrats tended to dominate among non-college educated voters where non-college educated voters where non-college educated voters where Republicans were like the Republicans were like the Republicans were like the the you know, country club Kiwanis Club the you know, country club Kiwanis Club the you know, country club Kiwanis Club people who like show up in the first day people who like show up in the first day people who like show up in the first day of voting. That has shifted. Look where of voting. That has shifted. Look where of voting. That has shifted. Look where Democrats have really really over Democrats have really really over Democrats have really really over performed, it's in special elections, performed, it's in special elections, performed, it's in special elections, it's in midterms as opposed to high it's in midterms as opposed to high it's in midterms as opposed to high turnout races like like when Trump's turnout races like like when Trump's turnout races like like when Trump's been on the ballot. Um and so like I been on the ballot. Um and so like I been on the ballot. Um and so like I think if Trump think if Trump think if Trump like like I think voter ID would be like like I think voter ID would be like like I think voter ID would be pretty reasonable. I'm not against voter pretty reasonable. I'm not against voter pretty reasonable. I'm not against voter ID. ID. ID. You show your ID to do you know, if you You show your ID to do you know, if you You show your ID to do you know, if you show your ID even at mid-40s to get into show your ID even at mid-40s to get into show your ID even at mid-40s to get into a bar, you can probably show it to vote. a bar, you can probably show it to vote. a bar, you can probably show it to vote. Um but like at the same time um I don't Um but like at the same time um I don't Um but like at the same time um I don't think that explains what we saw in think that explains what we saw in think that explains what we saw in California. I think it's a system that California. I think it's a system that California. I think it's a system that is much too slow. We have different is much too slow. We have different is much too slow. We have different tranches of ballots that are kind of tranches of ballots that are kind of tranches of ballots that are kind of differently and where younger people differently and where younger people differently and where younger people that might be more progressive tend to that might be more progressive tend to that might be more progressive tend to vote later and or by mail. And again, vote later and or by mail. And again, vote later and or by mail. And again, it's not like this happened in Alabama it's not like this happened in Alabama it's not like this happened in Alabama or something. The the prior on Pratt or something. The the prior on Pratt or something. The the prior on Pratt advancing probably would be pretty low advancing probably would be pretty low advancing probably would be pretty low potentially and I wish that people were potentially and I wish that people were potentially and I wish that people were were less partisan. I you know, I have were less partisan. I you know, I have were less partisan. I you know, I have been um been um been um critical on on the newsletter so we're critical on on the newsletter so we're critical on on the newsletter so we're bullish about Grant Platner for example, bullish about Grant Platner for example, bullish about Grant Platner for example, um um um because I think he's somebody who has because I think he's somebody who has because I think he's somebody who has not proven a reliable figure so to not proven a reliable figure so to not proven a reliable figure so to speak. And I was critical of of Joe speak. And I was critical of of Joe speak. And I was critical of of Joe Biden and I'm not even registered as a Biden and I'm not even registered as a Biden and I'm not even registered as a Democrat by the way despite what people Democrat by the way despite what people Democrat by the way despite what people assume. Um but if you're going to have assume. Um but if you're going to have assume. Um but if you're going to have five different ways to vote, and I say five different ways to vote, and I say five different ways to vote, and I say this to someone with experience like this to someone with experience like this to someone with experience like actually trying to build actually trying to build actually trying to build election night models and being on election night models and being on election night models and being on national TV on election nights, these national TV on election nights, these national TV on election nights, these blue shifts or red shifts are somewhat blue shifts or red shifts are somewhat blue shifts or red shifts are somewhat predictable and are going to be a predictable and are going to be a predictable and are going to be a notable consequence of of having notable consequence of of having notable consequence of of having different mechanisms to vote where you different mechanisms to vote where you different mechanisms to vote where you have like different queues in a line, have like different queues in a line, have like different queues in a line, right? If you're at at MSG and you have right? If you're at at MSG and you have right? If you're at at MSG and you have like a VIP line, the cohort that arrives like a VIP line, the cohort that arrives like a VIP line, the cohort that arrives through the VIP line is going to be through the VIP line is going to be through the VIP line is going to be different than the one that arrives different than the one that arrives different than the one that arrives through like the main gates on on 7th through like the main gates on on 7th through like the main gates on on 7th Avenue or whatever. And I think the Avenue or whatever. And I think the Avenue or whatever. And I think the system should be simplified. By the way, system should be simplified. By the way, system should be simplified. By the way, also things like ranked choice voting, also things like ranked choice voting, also things like ranked choice voting, which I again, as an election wonk, I which I again, as an election wonk, I which I again, as an election wonk, I support giving voters more choice. support giving voters more choice. support giving voters more choice. You shouldn't need like Maine or New You shouldn't need like Maine or New You shouldn't need like Maine or New York City take um an extra 2 weeks to York City take um an extra 2 weeks to York City take um an extra 2 weeks to count ranked choice voting where count ranked choice voting where count ranked choice voting where I could cloud code I could cloud code I could cloud code >> [laughter] >> [laughter] >> [laughter] >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> a a ranked choice voting algorithm that >> a a ranked choice voting algorithm that >> a a ranked choice voting algorithm that would resolve itself in 7 minutes even would resolve itself in 7 minutes even would resolve itself in 7 minutes even with with with 100 million votes in Maine or half a 100 million votes in Maine or half a 100 million votes in Maine or half a million or whatever it was in the million or whatever it was in the million or whatever it was in the primary. primary. primary. >> have that we have the appearance of >> have that we have the appearance of >> have that we have the appearance of impropriety and we have a highly impropriety and we have a highly impropriety and we have a highly politicized system. I don't want to lead politicized system. I don't want to lead politicized system. I don't want to lead the witness here too much, but we do the witness here too much, but we do the witness here too much, but we do find find find isolated cases like this woman Annika isolated cases like this woman Annika isolated cases like this woman Annika Brenda Lee Brown Armstrong. She was Brenda Lee Brown Armstrong. She was Brenda Lee Brown Armstrong. She was paying people three bucks or giving them paying people three bucks or giving them paying people three bucks or giving them cigarettes to register them. You have cigarettes to register them. You have cigarettes to register them. You have these on the margin fraudulent looking these on the margin fraudulent looking these on the margin fraudulent looking behaviors. And then if it takes this behaviors. And then if it takes this behaviors. And then if it takes this long, that gives another appearance of long, that gives another appearance of long, that gives another appearance of impropriety, but I keep bringing up the impropriety, but I keep bringing up the impropriety, but I keep bringing up the Heritage Foundation. I'm sure you've Heritage Foundation. I'm sure you've Heritage Foundation. I'm sure you've looked at their data. They have a lot of looked at their data. They have a lot of looked at their data. They have a lot of people trying to figure out where fraud people trying to figure out where fraud people trying to figure out where fraud exists, investigating it, and it's de exists, investigating it, and it's de exists, investigating it, and it's de minimis. It's couple of thousands of minimis. It's couple of thousands of minimis. It's couple of thousands of cases they can find. So even if you cases they can find. So even if you cases they can find. So even if you extrapolated them 10x or 20x, pick your extrapolated them 10x or 20x, pick your extrapolated them 10x or 20x, pick your multiple, it would never swing a major multiple, it would never swing a major multiple, it would never swing a major election. In fact, the number of election. In fact, the number of election. In fact, the number of elections that have been swung elections that have been swung elections that have been swung based on what they told me is like the based on what they told me is like the based on what they told me is like the most local smallest election where most local smallest election where most local smallest election where there's tens of thousands of votes or there's tens of thousands of votes or there's tens of thousands of votes or thousands of votes. So, is that the thousands of votes. So, is that the thousands of votes. So, is that the issue that we're seeing here? This issue that we're seeing here? This issue that we're seeing here? This collection of appearances of collection of appearances of collection of appearances of impropriety? impropriety? impropriety? >> Yes. Look, the the American election >> Yes. Look, the the American election >> Yes. Look, the the American election system is very decentralized. system is very decentralized. system is very decentralized. Um which, you know, as kind of like a a Um which, you know, as kind of like a a Um which, you know, as kind of like a a old-school liberal in some ways, who I'm old-school liberal in some ways, who I'm old-school liberal in some ways, who I'm kind of against centralized power, I kind of against centralized power, I kind of against centralized power, I think is quite brilliant in some think is quite brilliant in some think is quite brilliant in some respects. But, yeah, is scale there is respects. But, yeah, is scale there is respects. But, yeah, is scale there is certainly there are certainly cases of certainly there are certainly cases of certainly there are certainly cases of fraud when Al Franken won, what was it, fraud when Al Franken won, what was it, fraud when Al Franken won, what was it, 2006, right? It came down to like a 2006, right? It came down to like a 2006, right? It came down to like a recount of like 200 votes. We're never recount of like 200 votes. We're never recount of like 200 votes. We're never going to know that with any degree of going to know that with any degree of going to know that with any degree of certainty. There is like a margin of certainty. There is like a margin of certainty. There is like a margin of error. But, in practice, and we know error. But, in practice, and we know error. But, in practice, and we know this, too, this, too, this, too, when you do have recounts, you can have when you do have recounts, you can have when you do have recounts, you can have studied this a lot, studied this a lot, studied this a lot, you have an 0.5% recount threshold in you have an 0.5% recount threshold in you have an 0.5% recount threshold in most states. most states. most states. Almost never have you had a margin Almost never have you had a margin Almost never have you had a margin larger than 0.05% larger than 0.05% larger than 0.05% or so overturned. The errors can also or so overturned. The errors can also or so overturned. The errors can also cancel out. Again, you know, the notion cancel out. Again, you know, the notion cancel out. Again, you know, the notion that someone can that someone can that someone can vote without physically being like the vote without physically being like the vote without physically being like the ward of their ballot, I understand why ward of their ballot, I understand why ward of their ballot, I understand why that bothers people, and I think that bothers people, and I think that bothers people, and I think California has been California has been California has been complacent about this, and I think complacent about this, and I think complacent about this, and I think perception does matter, and I think you perception does matter, and I think you perception does matter, and I think you can there's a kind of certain can there's a kind of certain can there's a kind of certain arrogance, I guess, is the term that arrogance, I guess, is the term that arrogance, I guess, is the term that comes to mind, um comes to mind, um comes to mind, um about saying, "Well, we want everyone to about saying, "Well, we want everyone to about saying, "Well, we want everyone to vote, and so we're just going to do vote, and so we're just going to do vote, and so we're just going to do things our way, and it takes a long time things our way, and it takes a long time things our way, and it takes a long time because we're like taking time to verify because we're like taking time to verify because we're like taking time to verify things." Again, you know, having studied things." Again, you know, having studied things." Again, you know, having studied elections all around the world, it's elections all around the world, it's elections all around the world, it's very unusual. Most countries would count very unusual. Most countries would count very unusual. Most countries would count much, much faster than the US. It's much, much faster than the US. It's much, much faster than the US. It's really because we have an Electoral really because we have an Electoral really because we have an Electoral College system, it's decentralized, but College system, it's decentralized, but College system, it's decentralized, but like in most elections in France or the like in most elections in France or the like in most elections in France or the UK, where they keep having elections or UK, where they keep having elections or UK, where they keep having elections or whatever else, or Japan or India even, whatever else, or Japan or India even, whatever else, or Japan or India even, you know the result of the vote within a you know the result of the vote within a you know the result of the vote within a few hours. And the fact that the United few hours. And the fact that the United few hours. And the fact that the United States, the technological leader of the States, the technological leader of the States, the technological leader of the world, and the supposed like beacon of world, and the supposed like beacon of world, and the supposed like beacon of democracy, can't do that, I think is is democracy, can't do that, I think is is democracy, can't do that, I think is is a sign of atrophy of of the efficacy of a sign of atrophy of of the efficacy of a sign of atrophy of of the efficacy of the system. the system. the system. >> Or is it by design, Nate? Let me ask you >> Or is it by design, Nate? Let me ask you >> Or is it by design, Nate? Let me ask you a question. If voter ID laws don't a question. If voter ID laws don't a question. If voter ID laws don't change change change and mail-in ballot laws don't change and and mail-in ballot laws don't change and and mail-in ballot laws don't change and the system doesn't change, the system doesn't change, the system doesn't change, is there a chance, do you think, from is there a chance, do you think, from is there a chance, do you think, from the data you've seen the data you've seen the data you've seen for a Republican governor to be elected for a Republican governor to be elected for a Republican governor to be elected again in California or for Republicans again in California or for Republicans again in California or for Republicans to win more seats in the house or have a to win more seats in the house or have a to win more seats in the house or have a shot at winning a Senate seat in shot at winning a Senate seat in shot at winning a Senate seat in California? I mean, fundamentally, does California? I mean, fundamentally, does California? I mean, fundamentally, does this system not get set up in such a way this system not get set up in such a way this system not get set up in such a way that it creates a irreversible model for that it creates a irreversible model for that it creates a irreversible model for Democrat establishment to maintain its Democrat establishment to maintain its Democrat establishment to maintain its control over elected seats in the state? control over elected seats in the state? control over elected seats in the state? >> I mean, Democrats have lost plenty of >> I mean, Democrats have lost plenty of >> I mean, Democrats have lost plenty of elections recently, but not in elections recently, but not in elections recently, but not in California. Partisanship is the gravity California. Partisanship is the gravity California. Partisanship is the gravity that dictates every election in the US, that dictates every election in the US, that dictates every election in the US, right? Like, my job, don't worry, I will right? Like, my job, don't worry, I will right? Like, my job, don't worry, I will get criticized if get criticized if get criticized if if we say, oh, whatever, Gavin Newsom or if we say, oh, whatever, Gavin Newsom or if we say, oh, whatever, Gavin Newsom or AOC is a 55% favorite and they lose, but AOC is a 55% favorite and they lose, but AOC is a 55% favorite and they lose, but like, but 43 of the 50 states say that like, but 43 of the 50 states say that like, but 43 of the 50 states say that we can probably predict right now with we can probably predict right now with we can probably predict right now with 97% confidence who to vote for in 2028. 97% confidence who to vote for in 2028. 97% confidence who to vote for in 2028. And it's not because of rigging, it's And it's not because of rigging, it's And it's not because of rigging, it's because because because polarization and partisanship are very polarization and partisanship are very polarization and partisanship are very powerful forces that we can't seem to to powerful forces that we can't seem to to powerful forces that we can't seem to to escape from. You know, again, I would escape from. You know, again, I would escape from. You know, again, I would love um love um love um You see a little bit of this in New You see a little bit of this in New You see a little bit of this in New England, actually, right? You see like a England, actually, right? You see like a England, actually, right? You see like a Charlie Baker or is it Phil Scott in Charlie Baker or is it Phil Scott in Charlie Baker or is it Phil Scott in Vermont, right? You see a little bit of Vermont, right? You see a little bit of Vermont, right? You see a little bit of like cross partisanship in New England. like cross partisanship in New England. like cross partisanship in New England. You see even in the South like Beshear You see even in the South like Beshear You see even in the South like Beshear in Kentucky is a moderate but Democratic in Kentucky is a moderate but Democratic in Kentucky is a moderate but Democratic governor. Um for some reason you don't governor. Um for some reason you don't governor. Um for some reason you don't see it as much in California. I don't see it as much in California. I don't see it as much in California. I don't know why. California's like always been know why. California's like always been know why. California's like always been like the laboratory of weird and like the laboratory of weird and like the laboratory of weird and eccentric political ideas, but it's come eccentric political ideas, but it's come eccentric political ideas, but it's come it's become a machine state. Maybe it's become a machine state. Maybe it's become a machine state. Maybe because it's so large that voters can't because it's so large that voters can't because it's so large that voters can't kind of touch the candidates up close kind of touch the candidates up close kind of touch the candidates up close and don't have a lot of like directly and don't have a lot of like directly and don't have a lot of like directly relatable experience. Um relatable experience. Um relatable experience. Um maybe California's just kind of like too maybe California's just kind of like too maybe California's just kind of like too large in general, but I like I am very large in general, but I like I am very large in general, but I like I am very concerned about concerned about concerned about polarization and partisanship. I think polarization and partisanship. I think polarization and partisanship. I think it leads to lower quality of governance. it leads to lower quality of governance. it leads to lower quality of governance. I think it's I think it's I think it's exacerbated by exacerbated by exacerbated by gerrymandering, this gerrymandering kind gerrymandering, this gerrymandering kind gerrymandering, this gerrymandering kind of war to the bottom. Um of war to the bottom. Um of war to the bottom. Um and Democrats have paid the price where and Democrats have paid the price where and Democrats have paid the price where like the triangulation, you pick the like the triangulation, you pick the like the triangulation, you pick the least worst nominee. least worst nominee. least worst nominee. Works perfectly fine in blue states. Works perfectly fine in blue states. Works perfectly fine in blue states. They're going to win the general They're going to win the general They're going to win the general election. Um election. Um election. Um it hasn't given the Democrats very it hasn't given the Democrats very it hasn't given the Democrats very effective general election nominees, effective general election nominees, effective general election nominees, right? Between um you know, I consider right? Between um you know, I consider right? Between um you know, I consider like you know, they're one out of the like you know, they're one out of the like you know, they're one out of the last four. I considered Biden to have last four. I considered Biden to have last four. I considered Biden to have lost in 2024 but before Harris lost lost in 2024 but before Harris lost lost in 2024 but before Harris lost instead. Um you know, the one election instead. Um you know, the one election instead. Um you know, the one election they did win was during a they did win was during a they did win was during a once-in-a-century pandemic that once-in-a-century pandemic that once-in-a-century pandemic that although I have my critiques of liberal although I have my critiques of liberal although I have my critiques of liberal handling of COVID, was kind of handling of COVID, was kind of handling of COVID, was kind of objectively handled objectively handled objectively handled well, I don't know. You can talk about well, I don't know. You can talk about well, I don't know. You can talk about Operation Warp Speed. I understand my Operation Warp Speed. I understand my Operation Warp Speed. I understand my voters were very unhappy with 2020 the voters were very unhappy with 2020 the voters were very unhappy with 2020 the 2020 version of Trump and and the 2020 version of Trump and and the 2020 version of Trump and and the greatest economic disruption since the greatest economic disruption since the greatest economic disruption since the 1930s. Um so they kind of won the gimme. 1930s. Um so they kind of won the gimme. 1930s. Um so they kind of won the gimme. They hadn't won the close elections They hadn't won the close elections They hadn't won the close elections recently except for Obama who recently except for Obama who recently except for Obama who conspicuously at least kind of made conspicuously at least kind of made conspicuously at least kind of made rhetoric to trying to bridge a divide rhetoric to trying to bridge a divide rhetoric to trying to bridge a divide between the parties. Um between the parties. Um between the parties. Um you know, Obama still has a I looked at you know, Obama still has a I looked at you know, Obama still has a I looked at this today, a 57% approval rating post this today, a 57% approval rating post this today, a 57% approval rating post factor with with independents. Biden is factor with with independents. Biden is factor with with independents. Biden is at 20%. Um at 20%. Um at 20%. Um and like look, I think a lot of and like look, I think a lot of and like look, I think a lot of Democrats and Republicans certainly were Democrats and Republicans certainly were Democrats and Republicans certainly were hoping maybe even more so Republicans hoping maybe even more so Republicans hoping maybe even more so Republicans frankly under Trump feel as though you frankly under Trump feel as though you frankly under Trump feel as though you don't even have to try to turn out the don't even have to try to turn out the don't even have to try to turn out the other side or persuade people. It's just other side or persuade people. It's just other side or persuade people. It's just a numbers game and in California, if a numbers game and in California, if a numbers game and in California, if you're a Democrat, you win the numbers you're a Democrat, you win the numbers you're a Democrat, you win the numbers game. game. game. >> I'm going all in. >> You run back-to-back calls all day. >> You run back-to-back calls all day. Decisions get made, then the details Decisions get made, then the details Decisions get made, then the details slip. Otter fixes that. Clip Otter Note slip. Otter fixes that. Clip Otter Note slip. Otter fixes that. Clip Otter Note Pro to your phone, hit record, and stay Pro to your phone, hit record, and stay Pro to your phone, hit record, and stay in the conversation. Otter Intelligence in the conversation. Otter Intelligence in the conversation. 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LawNote Pro at lawd.ai. >> [music] >> [music] >> [music] >> I think we want to really get to 2026 >> I think we want to really get to 2026 >> I think we want to really get to 2026 and 2028 and talk about what you were and 2028 and talk about what you were and 2028 and talk about what you were alluding to, which is the polarization alluding to, which is the polarization alluding to, which is the polarization and how these parties have changed. The and how these parties have changed. The and how these parties have changed. The Republicans used to be, you know, this Republicans used to be, you know, this Republicans used to be, you know, this country club group, country club group, country club group, uh it leads rich people, business uh it leads rich people, business uh it leads rich people, business owners. Now they're the populist party. owners. Now they're the populist party. owners. Now they're the populist party. Then the other side, which used to be Then the other side, which used to be Then the other side, which used to be the working man and the working woman's the working man and the working woman's the working man and the working woman's party, they've become this liberal weird party, they've become this liberal weird party, they've become this liberal weird socialist party and that seems to be socialist party and that seems to be socialist party and that seems to be playing. playing. playing. >> They're both popular. >> They're both popular. >> They're both popular. >> What's going on with the vibes, >> What's going on with the vibes, >> What's going on with the vibes, I guess, between these two parties and I guess, between these two parties and I guess, between these two parties and how do you look at them because it does how do you look at them because it does how do you look at them because it does feel like inside of each of those feel like inside of each of those feel like inside of each of those parties you have two sub parties. So you parties you have two sub parties. So you parties you have two sub parties. So you really have like some sort of 4 by 4 really have like some sort of 4 by 4 really have like some sort of 4 by 4 matrix here or 2 by 2 matrix with four matrix here or 2 by 2 matrix with four matrix here or 2 by 2 matrix with four different groups. different groups. different groups. How is that going to play out in 2026, How is that going to play out in 2026, How is that going to play out in 2026, which still feels like the anti-Trump which still feels like the anti-Trump which still feels like the anti-Trump vote, like hey, I'm not happy about vote, like hey, I'm not happy about vote, like hey, I'm not happy about Trump, but 2028, there's Trump's not Trump, but 2028, there's Trump's not Trump, but 2028, there's Trump's not going to run a third time, you know, going to run a third time, you know, going to run a third time, you know, likelihood, so let's take those two likelihood, so let's take those two likelihood, so let's take those two buckets as well as the vibes and these buckets as well as the vibes and these buckets as well as the vibes and these parties fracturing a bit. parties fracturing a bit. parties fracturing a bit. >> Yeah, I think Democrats really have >> Yeah, I think Democrats really have >> Yeah, I think Democrats really have three factions as I've described them. three factions as I've described them. three factions as I've described them. Um Um Um one is the left, the avatars might be one is the left, the avatars might be one is the left, the avatars might be Zoran, Zoran, Zoran, um might be AOC, might be Bernie um might be AOC, might be Bernie um might be AOC, might be Bernie Sanders. All of whom, by the way, are Sanders. All of whom, by the way, are Sanders. All of whom, by the way, are quite effective politicians in their own quite effective politicians in their own quite effective politicians in their own way. I mean, Zo- Zoran understood how to way. I mean, Zo- Zoran understood how to way. I mean, Zo- Zoran understood how to like be a Knicks cheerleader, for like be a Knicks cheerleader, for like be a Knicks cheerleader, for example. example. example. >> yeah. >> yeah. >> yeah. >> [laughter] >> [laughter] >> [laughter] >> That speech was like almost perfect. >> That speech was like almost perfect. >> That speech was like almost perfect. Whoever wrote it for him is a Knicks Whoever wrote it for him is a Knicks Whoever wrote it for him is a Knicks fan. fan. fan. >> But look, I'll be on a I I didn't vote >> But look, I'll be on a I I didn't vote >> But look, I'll be on a I I didn't vote for him, but like I think find anyone for him, but like I think find anyone for him, but like I think find anyone who's like trying to like bridge gaps who's like trying to like bridge gaps who's like trying to like bridge gaps and expand a tent, even if it's from a and expand a tent, even if it's from a and expand a tent, even if it's from a direction that I might not agree with, I direction that I might not agree with, I direction that I might not agree with, I find that like somewhat appealing, I find that like somewhat appealing, I find that like somewhat appealing, I suppose. You know, AOC, you can take suppose. You know, AOC, you can take suppose. You know, AOC, you can take your leave. She has become a more your leave. She has become a more your leave. She has become a more effective tactical politician. You know, effective tactical politician. You know, effective tactical politician. You know, Bernie, what he's built with um Bernie, what he's built with um Bernie, what he's built with um with being a freaking old guy from with being a freaking old guy from with being a freaking old guy from Vermont, the socialist mayor of Vermont, the socialist mayor of Vermont, the socialist mayor of Burlington, Vermont, coming within not a Burlington, Vermont, coming within not a Burlington, Vermont, coming within not a hair's breadth, but coming, hair's breadth, but coming, hair's breadth, but coming, you know, quite close and beating you know, quite close and beating you know, quite close and beating Clinton in 20 states in 2016 or whatever Clinton in 20 states in 2016 or whatever Clinton in 20 states in 2016 or whatever was quite impressive. But like that's was quite impressive. But like that's was quite impressive. But like that's one constituency and historically the one constituency and historically the one constituency and historically the left has not had a lot of big wins left has not had a lot of big wins left has not had a lot of big wins outside of the bluest states. On the outside of the bluest states. On the outside of the bluest states. On the other side, there are the abundance other side, there are the abundance other side, there are the abundance libs, kind of named after Ezra Klein, libs, kind of named after Ezra Klein, libs, kind of named after Ezra Klein, right? They are more pro free market. right? They are more pro free market. right? They are more pro free market. They sometimes deny that they're They sometimes deny that they're They sometimes deny that they're centrist. I think they're pretty centrist. I think they're pretty centrist. I think they're pretty centrist. They are the ones who are very centrist. They are the ones who are very centrist. They are the ones who are very concerned with California as a case concerned with California as a case concerned with California as a case study of poor governance. And whatever study of poor governance. And whatever study of poor governance. And whatever you think about parties at the national you think about parties at the national you think about parties at the national level, um level, um level, um generally speaking, generally speaking, generally speaking, it's the purple states, it's the purple states, it's the purple states, sometimes the red states, where things sometimes the red states, where things sometimes the red states, where things are more are more functional, where are more are more functional, where are more are more functional, where there's more housing, where when you get there's more housing, where when you get there's more housing, where when you get out of the airport to catch an Uber, out of the airport to catch an Uber, out of the airport to catch an Uber, there's not some convoluted system where there's not some convoluted system where there's not some convoluted system where you have to wait 20 minutes in line to you have to wait 20 minutes in line to you have to wait 20 minutes in line to go to some shuttle like in LAX or go to some shuttle like in LAX or go to some shuttle like in LAX or whatever else, right? Um whatever else, right? Um whatever else, right? Um where there's population growth. I mean, where there's population growth. I mean, where there's population growth. I mean, you want to talk about like hard data, you want to talk about like hard data, you want to talk about like hard data, population data in the US and jobs data population data in the US and jobs data population data in the US and jobs data is pretty good. And those are states is pretty good. And those are states is pretty good. And those are states where people have moved to. And the where people have moved to. And the where people have moved to. And the abundance libs are critical of abundance libs are critical of abundance libs are critical of democratic governance and critical of of democratic governance and critical of of democratic governance and critical of of um um um culture war issues on policing and trans culture war issues on policing and trans culture war issues on policing and trans rights and and have what I call rights and and have what I call rights and and have what I call the resistance lib faction. the resistance lib faction. the resistance lib faction. They're the ones who say they're really They're the ones who say they're really They're the ones who say they're really fed up with the Democratic fed up with the Democratic fed up with the Democratic establishment, but are still establishment, but are still establishment, but are still often very partisan and often very like often very partisan and often very like often very partisan and often very like cheerleading for the blue team. They're cheerleading for the blue team. They're cheerleading for the blue team. They're the ones who thought that Joe Biden was the ones who thought that Joe Biden was the ones who thought that Joe Biden was railroaded out of the 2024 race, for railroaded out of the 2024 race, for railroaded out of the 2024 race, for example. They're really Gavin Newsom's example. They're really Gavin Newsom's example. They're really Gavin Newsom's constituency. Um constituency. Um constituency. Um why is Gavin Newsom going out of his way why is Gavin Newsom going out of his way why is Gavin Newsom going out of his way to support and endorse kind of the to support and endorse kind of the to support and endorse kind of the Bidens when Biden even among Democrats Bidens when Biden even among Democrats Bidens when Biden even among Democrats is not all that popular anymore. is not all that popular anymore. is not all that popular anymore. Everyone else wants to move on. And Everyone else wants to move on. And Everyone else wants to move on. And what's because of the signal to like the what's because of the signal to like the what's because of the signal to like the resistance libs that like, I have your resistance libs that like, I have your resistance libs that like, I have your back. I'm a fighter. The reason why we back. I'm a fighter. The reason why we back. I'm a fighter. The reason why we didn't win in 2024 is because the media didn't win in 2024 is because the media didn't win in 2024 is because the media was unfair to Biden and or because was unfair to Biden and or because was unfair to Biden and or because Kamala Harris was a black woman. So, Kamala Harris was a black woman. So, Kamala Harris was a black woman. So, pick a white guy who will fight for you pick a white guy who will fight for you pick a white guy who will fight for you and tweet in all caps and you'll win. and tweet in all caps and you'll win. and tweet in all caps and you'll win. >> So, it's kind of like ride or die. We're >> So, it's kind of like ride or die. We're >> So, it's kind of like ride or die. We're going to just our team our team our going to just our team our team our going to just our team our team our team's going to win. It doesn't matter. team's going to win. It doesn't matter. team's going to win. It doesn't matter. We never apologize. Kind of the Trump We never apologize. Kind of the Trump We never apologize. Kind of the Trump playbook. Never apologize. Go on the playbook. Never apologize. Go on the playbook. Never apologize. Go on the attack. Seems to be what Gavin's doing, attack. Seems to be what Gavin's doing, attack. Seems to be what Gavin's doing, right? right? right? >> Absolutely. And he had some >> Absolutely. And he had some >> Absolutely. And he had some some proof of concept. I mean, the some proof of concept. I mean, the some proof of concept. I mean, the redistricting thing was a genuinely redistricting thing was a genuinely redistricting thing was a genuinely smart tactical move. Democrats are going smart tactical move. Democrats are going smart tactical move. Democrats are going to wind up losing seats, but like to wind up losing seats, but like to wind up losing seats, but like without California, they probably lose without California, they probably lose without California, they probably lose even more. And so, he did skate where even more. And so, he did skate where even more. And so, he did skate where the puck was going there the puck was going there the puck was going there instead of the party's like usual risk instead of the party's like usual risk instead of the party's like usual risk version that I've critiqued before. Um version that I've critiqued before. Um version that I've critiqued before. Um but at the same time, the triangulating but at the same time, the triangulating but at the same time, the triangulating spirit of like, let's pick Kamala Harris spirit of like, let's pick Kamala Harris spirit of like, let's pick Kamala Harris cuz she she's like the least cuz she she's like the least cuz she she's like the least unacceptable candidate or Hillary or or unacceptable candidate or Hillary or or unacceptable candidate or Hillary or or John Kerry if you want to go back to John Kerry if you want to go back to John Kerry if you want to go back to 2004. 2004. 2004. Um Um Um the establishment doesn't seem to have the establishment doesn't seem to have the establishment doesn't seem to have an understanding of the fact that like an understanding of the fact that like an understanding of the fact that like almost every election now, Obama in 2012 almost every election now, Obama in 2012 almost every election now, Obama in 2012 was I guess the exception, almost every was I guess the exception, almost every was I guess the exception, almost every election now is a change election. We election now is a change election. We election now is a change election. We might ping pong back and forth for many might ping pong back and forth for many might ping pong back and forth for many cycles. Like I think Democrats are cycles. Like I think Democrats are cycles. Like I think Democrats are slight favorites to win in 2028. It slight favorites to win in 2028. It slight favorites to win in 2028. It wouldn't shock me if AOC or Newsom or wouldn't shock me if AOC or Newsom or wouldn't shock me if AOC or Newsom or Shapiro or Ossoff or whomever wins. Shapiro or Ossoff or whomever wins. Shapiro or Ossoff or whomever wins. If they're underdogs again in 2032. Look If they're underdogs again in 2032. Look If they're underdogs again in 2032. Look what's happening in the UK where I mean, what's happening in the UK where I mean, what's happening in the UK where I mean, it's kind of become like a running joke, it's kind of become like a running joke, it's kind of become like a running joke, but we're going to be through like what? but we're going to be through like what? but we're going to be through like what? Like six prime ministers in 9 years or Like six prime ministers in 9 years or Like six prime ministers in 9 years or something and they're probably the US's something and they're probably the US's something and they're probably the US's like closest comp. like closest comp. like closest comp. It's not a good time to be a defender of It's not a good time to be a defender of It's not a good time to be a defender of the status quo. And I do think the status quo. And I do think the status quo. And I do think candidates like candidates like candidates like Kamala Harris who was unable to distance Kamala Harris who was unable to distance Kamala Harris who was unable to distance herself, kind of literally unable or herself, kind of literally unable or herself, kind of literally unable or unwilling to distance herself from from unwilling to distance herself from from unwilling to distance herself from from Biden, or Newsom, who's kind of like Biden, or Newsom, who's kind of like Biden, or Newsom, who's kind of like defending that legacy in the same way. defending that legacy in the same way. defending that legacy in the same way. Like, to me that seems like a Like, to me that seems like a Like, to me that seems like a a failed strategy. But, like in a lot of a failed strategy. But, like in a lot of a failed strategy. But, like in a lot of these World Cup games, sometimes, you these World Cup games, sometimes, you these World Cup games, sometimes, you know, sometimes you win on penalties, know, sometimes you win on penalties, know, sometimes you win on penalties, you know? I I don't think that any of you know? I I don't think that any of you know? I I don't think that any of the GOP nominees the GOP nominees the GOP nominees look to be particularly strong. Donald look to be particularly strong. Donald look to be particularly strong. Donald Trump in our approval ratings now is Trump in our approval ratings now is Trump in our approval ratings now is down to down to down to 38%. People are upset about Iran, 38%. People are upset about Iran, 38%. People are upset about Iran, they're upset about gas prices, they're they're upset about gas prices, they're they're upset about gas prices, they're upset about just fatigue of having a a upset about just fatigue of having a a upset about just fatigue of having a a you know, a singular you know, a singular you know, a singular center star of politics over the past, center star of politics over the past, center star of politics over the past, you know, Trump kind of is like it's you know, Trump kind of is like it's you know, Trump kind of is like it's fatiguing a little bit. And so, like, fatiguing a little bit. And so, like, fatiguing a little bit. And so, like, it's an uphill battle for the GOP. it's an uphill battle for the GOP. it's an uphill battle for the GOP. Democrats might do their best to Democrats might do their best to Democrats might do their best to to give Republicans a fighting chance to give Republicans a fighting chance to give Republicans a fighting chance despite that. despite that. despite that. >> So, just to extrapolate from that, like >> So, just to extrapolate from that, like >> So, just to extrapolate from that, like the point about the point about the point about needing change, driving change on the needing change, driving change on the needing change, driving change on the progressive side, progressive side, progressive side, we are seeing socialists getting elected we are seeing socialists getting elected we are seeing socialists getting elected as mayor, socialists starting to rise at as mayor, socialists starting to rise at as mayor, socialists starting to rise at the state level, and many of these the state level, and many of these the state level, and many of these candidates that you've mentioned are candidates that you've mentioned are candidates that you've mentioned are self-declared socialists at the national self-declared socialists at the national self-declared socialists at the national level. We may potentially have a level. We may potentially have a level. We may potentially have a democratic socialist as president 2028, democratic socialist as president 2028, democratic socialist as president 2028, based on what you're saying. Is that based on what you're saying. Is that based on what you're saying. Is that ultimately where this goes, where the ultimately where this goes, where the ultimately where this goes, where the populist movements drive the left populist movements drive the left populist movements drive the left further left, and everyone in that party further left, and everyone in that party further left, and everyone in that party now seems to be jumping on this now seems to be jumping on this now seems to be jumping on this bandwagon, proclaiming socialist bandwagon, proclaiming socialist bandwagon, proclaiming socialist principles as the only way to solve principles as the only way to solve principles as the only way to solve inequity and unfairness in this country? inequity and unfairness in this country? inequity and unfairness in this country? And, you know, kind of jumping on what And, you know, kind of jumping on what And, you know, kind of jumping on what we were from empirical kind of history we were from empirical kind of history we were from empirical kind of history shown doesn't work as a governing shown doesn't work as a governing shown doesn't work as a governing system, as a economic system, but system, as a economic system, but system, as a economic system, but suddenly everyone's kind of been swept suddenly everyone's kind of been swept suddenly everyone's kind of been swept away by it and seems to think it's it's away by it and seems to think it's it's away by it and seems to think it's it's the the only way forward. Does that the the only way forward. Does that the the only way forward. Does that kind of be the output of the conditions kind of be the output of the conditions kind of be the output of the conditions that you're describing, that the left, that you're describing, that the left, that you're describing, that the left, the Democrats basically become a the Democrats basically become a the Democrats basically become a socialist party, and they embrace socialist party, and they embrace socialist party, and they embrace socialism fully and full-throated? socialism fully and full-throated? socialism fully and full-throated? >> I think there are huge generational >> I think there are huge generational >> I think there are huge generational divides where, you know, so I grew up divides where, you know, so I grew up divides where, you know, so I grew up I'm 48. Um I'm 48. Um I'm 48. Um so I still remember the kind of not last so I still remember the kind of not last so I still remember the kind of not last fascists, but like I still remember the fascists, but like I still remember the fascists, but like I still remember the Cold War. I still remember the Berlin Cold War. I still remember the Berlin Cold War. I still remember the Berlin Wall falling, right? So for me the Wall falling, right? So for me the Wall falling, right? So for me the connotations are of socialism are connotations are of socialism are connotations are of socialism are close adjacent to communism close adjacent to communism close adjacent to communism are a long history of failure of are a long history of failure of are a long history of failure of economic development in countries that economic development in countries that economic development in countries that adopted that system. I think people who adopted that system. I think people who adopted that system. I think people who are a little bit older don't realize are a little bit older don't realize are a little bit older don't realize that like the socialism brand that like the socialism brand that like the socialism brand is much more popular among younger is much more popular among younger is much more popular among younger Democrats. By the same token, America is Democrats. By the same token, America is Democrats. By the same token, America is still a still a still a supremely capitalist country, you know, supremely capitalist country, you know, supremely capitalist country, you know, if not for and again I in my book I have if not for and again I in my book I have if not for and again I in my book I have lots of critiques of the tech sector. We lots of critiques of the tech sector. We lots of critiques of the tech sector. We still are attracting the best and still are attracting the best and still are attracting the best and brightest young talent from all around brightest young talent from all around brightest young talent from all around the world, you know, I personally think the world, you know, I personally think the world, you know, I personally think the AI capital boom, whatever becomes of the AI capital boom, whatever becomes of the AI capital boom, whatever becomes of it, is responsible for keeping our it, is responsible for keeping our it, is responsible for keeping our economy, at least the stock market, in economy, at least the stock market, in economy, at least the stock market, in relatively good shape. Um relatively good shape. Um relatively good shape. Um and you know, also things like and you know, also things like and you know, also things like where have Democrats lost support? Well, where have Democrats lost support? Well, where have Democrats lost support? Well, actually the biggest differences are actually the biggest differences are actually the biggest differences are concentrated among Hispanic and to some concentrated among Hispanic and to some concentrated among Hispanic and to some extent Asian-American voters. You know, extent Asian-American voters. You know, extent Asian-American voters. You know, who do you think are the most likely who do you think are the most likely who do you think are the most likely people to own small businesses in the people to own small businesses in the people to own small businesses in the US? It's a cliche, but 100% true that US? It's a cliche, but 100% true that US? It's a cliche, but 100% true that like recent immigrant groups are very like recent immigrant groups are very like recent immigrant groups are very entrepreneurial. It's one thing that I entrepreneurial. It's one thing that I entrepreneurial. It's one thing that I believe makes the United States great believe makes the United States great believe makes the United States great and one thing that makes me very and one thing that makes me very and one thing that makes me very pro-immigration. Um but you have seen pro-immigration. Um but you have seen pro-immigration. Um but you have seen shifts in those groups in the most shifts in those groups in the most shifts in those groups in the most entrepreneurial groups away from entrepreneurial groups away from entrepreneurial groups away from Democrats. Democrats. Democrats. >> Yeah, because I mean they they they they >> Yeah, because I mean they they they they >> Yeah, because I mean they they they they all escaped socialist countries and all escaped socialist countries and all escaped socialist countries and socialist backgrounds and the economic socialist backgrounds and the economic socialist backgrounds and the economic mobility that's afforded by free markets mobility that's afforded by free markets mobility that's afforded by free markets and capitalism and the degree of true and capitalism and the degree of true and capitalism and the degree of true liberalism we provide in this country is liberalism we provide in this country is liberalism we provide in this country is what's given folks opportunities that what's given folks opportunities that what's given folks opportunities that don't exist elsewhere. don't exist elsewhere. don't exist elsewhere. But the second and third generation of But the second and third generation of But the second and third generation of the American middle class are probably the American middle class are probably the American middle class are probably you know, more likely as you point out you know, more likely as you point out you know, more likely as you point out to kind of be convinced of the benefits to kind of be convinced of the benefits to kind of be convinced of the benefits of socialism. of socialism. of socialism. >> This isn't your wheelhouse, Nate, but if >> This isn't your wheelhouse, Nate, but if >> This isn't your wheelhouse, Nate, but if you were hired to give a playbook to you were hired to give a playbook to you were hired to give a playbook to either party either party either party for 2028, what would be in that for 2028, what would be in that for 2028, what would be in that playbook? What would you tell them playbook? What would you tell them playbook? What would you tell them is the right platform for this moment in is the right platform for this moment in is the right platform for this moment in time, a post-Trump era, and with time, a post-Trump era, and with time, a post-Trump era, and with socialism, wealth disparity, healthcare, socialism, wealth disparity, healthcare, socialism, wealth disparity, healthcare, there's there's a group of issues here there's there's a group of issues here there's there's a group of issues here that keep coming up, the support of that keep coming up, the support of that keep coming up, the support of Israel, foreign wars. What's the perfect Israel, foreign wars. What's the perfect Israel, foreign wars. What's the perfect platform for either party, an platform for either party, an platform for either party, an independent or left-leaning or independent or left-leaning or independent or left-leaning or right-leaning? right-leaning? right-leaning? What are on going to be on the top of What are on going to be on the top of What are on going to be on the top of Americans' minds if you can look that Americans' minds if you can look that Americans' minds if you can look that far out? far out? far out? >> Yeah, look, I by most definitions am an >> Yeah, look, I by most definitions am an >> Yeah, look, I by most definitions am an elite, as are you guys. If you can elite, as are you guys. If you can elite, as are you guys. If you can afford tickets to game three of the afford tickets to game three of the afford tickets to game three of the Yeah. first NBA finals game in New York Yeah. first NBA finals game in New York Yeah. first NBA finals game in New York in whatever 25 years, and you're in whatever 25 years, and you're in whatever 25 years, and you're probably an elite. And most elites like probably an elite. And most elites like probably an elite. And most elites like me say they're, you know, socially me say they're, you know, socially me say they're, you know, socially liberal, economically moderate. liberal, economically moderate. liberal, economically moderate. I can I know I know I use the term I can I know I know I use the term I can I know I know I use the term liberal meaning the way liberals use in liberal meaning the way liberals use in liberal meaning the way liberals use in Europe, meaning some role for the state, Europe, meaning some role for the state, Europe, meaning some role for the state, but pro-market in general, and that's but pro-market in general, and that's but pro-market in general, and that's probably my view. Um probably my view. Um probably my view. Um I'm not sure that view is actually I'm not sure that view is actually I'm not sure that view is actually an electoral winner an electoral winner an electoral winner as much, right? Um the most neglected as much, right? Um the most neglected as much, right? Um the most neglected voters in the US are people who are voters in the US are people who are voters in the US are people who are culturally a little bit more culturally a little bit more culturally a little bit more conservative, but like economically more conservative, but like economically more conservative, but like economically more progressive potentially, but not quite progressive potentially, but not quite progressive potentially, but not quite in the same way that you get from like a in the same way that you get from like a in the same way that you get from like a an AOC. They support small business. an AOC. They support small business. an AOC. They support small business. They are wary of conglomerations of They are wary of conglomerations of They are wary of conglomerations of power. Maybe I'm painting that with with power. Maybe I'm painting that with with power. Maybe I'm painting that with with too generous a brush, but like I do too generous a brush, but like I do too generous a brush, but like I do think that like think that like think that like when you have the worst world's first when you have the worst world's first when you have the worst world's first trillionaire, when people have a lot of trillionaire, when people have a lot of trillionaire, when people have a lot of anxiety, maybe the anxiety is not the anxiety, maybe the anxiety is not the anxiety, maybe the anxiety is not the right right right shape of anxiety, but understandable shape of anxiety, but understandable shape of anxiety, but understandable anxiety about AI, when you have AI anxiety about AI, when you have AI anxiety about AI, when you have AI leaders saying things like it's going to leaders saying things like it's going to leaders saying things like it's going to displace displace displace all these white collar jobs. I look I all these white collar jobs. I look I all these white collar jobs. I look I think a electorally, I'm not saying think a electorally, I'm not saying think a electorally, I'm not saying morally or righteously whatever else, morally or righteously whatever else, morally or righteously whatever else, right? I think combining a little bit of right? I think combining a little bit of right? I think combining a little bit of the right kind of anti the right kind of anti the right kind of anti oligarch rhetoric um oligarch rhetoric um oligarch rhetoric um with moderation on some of the issues um with moderation on some of the issues um with moderation on some of the issues um you know, on the woke stuff. I get that you know, on the woke stuff. I get that you know, on the woke stuff. I get that term already feels like it's becoming term already feels like it's becoming term already feels like it's becoming outdated. Um outdated. Um outdated. Um but like still supporting small business but like still supporting small business but like still supporting small business especially for men, right? Um especially for men, right? Um especially for men, right? Um Young men still want to feel as though Young men still want to feel as though Young men still want to feel as though they control their own destiny. A lot of they control their own destiny. A lot of they control their own destiny. A lot of them feel like they don't do that them feel like they don't do that them feel like they don't do that anymore, but I don't think they anymore, but I don't think they anymore, but I don't think they necessarily want like all that much necessarily want like all that much necessarily want like all that much hand-holding. But no, it's a difficult hand-holding. But no, it's a difficult hand-holding. But no, it's a difficult thing to to triangulate and the US is thing to to triangulate and the US is thing to to triangulate and the US is not alone in having a lot of not alone in having a lot of not alone in having a lot of resistance and dissatisfaction with with resistance and dissatisfaction with with resistance and dissatisfaction with with the status quo, you know? I mean again, the status quo, you know? I mean again, the status quo, you know? I mean again, this is part of why and I'm sure about this is part of why and I'm sure about this is part of why and I'm sure about 2% of your audience will be sympathetic 2% of your audience will be sympathetic 2% of your audience will be sympathetic to this, why I have like to this, why I have like to this, why I have like been more defending of Zephyr Teachout been more defending of Zephyr Teachout been more defending of Zephyr Teachout and living in New York is because like and living in New York is because like and living in New York is because like he's at least getting the ins and outs. he's at least getting the ins and outs. he's at least getting the ins and outs. We'll see what happens in in after 4 We'll see what happens in in after 4 We'll see what happens in in after 4 years of like New York being like a a years of like New York being like a a years of like New York being like a a basically functional city, right? We basically functional city, right? We basically functional city, right? We have really nice new airports. It's not have really nice new airports. It's not have really nice new airports. It's not so much what he's doing that's cool or a so much what he's doing that's cool or a so much what he's doing that's cool or a hell of a lot of money spent, but like hell of a lot of money spent, but like hell of a lot of money spent, but like our crime is like relatively low our crime is like relatively low our crime is like relatively low compared to to California. I used to compared to to California. I used to compared to to California. I used to live right near Penn Station Madison live right near Penn Station Madison live right near Penn Station Madison Square Garden. Not the nicest Square Garden. Not the nicest Square Garden. Not the nicest neighborhood, not the nicest block, but neighborhood, not the nicest block, but neighborhood, not the nicest block, but like I never walked around feeling like I never walked around feeling like I never walked around feeling unsafe there. When I visit SF um then unsafe there. When I visit SF um then unsafe there. When I visit SF um then you have to be more careful, right? And you have to be more careful, right? And you have to be more careful, right? And so I I think like combining functional so I I think like combining functional so I I think like combining functional performance in government with whatever performance in government with whatever performance in government with whatever message you want is part of it. I think message you want is part of it. I think message you want is part of it. I think maybe even like having like a little bit maybe even like having like a little bit maybe even like having like a little bit more more more like optimism too. I'm I'm kind of like optimism too. I'm I'm kind of like optimism too. I'm I'm kind of always a fan of like zigging where other always a fan of like zigging where other always a fan of like zigging where other people zag. Obama presented a more people zag. Obama presented a more people zag. Obama presented a more optimistic take about like kind of like optimistic take about like kind of like optimistic take about like kind of like the American spirit, right? You know, the American spirit, right? You know, the American spirit, right? You know, look, I see um look, I see um look, I see um all the enthusiasm around the World Cup all the enthusiasm around the World Cup all the enthusiasm around the World Cup and the Knicks. I I don't want to sound and the Knicks. I I don't want to sound and the Knicks. I I don't want to sound like like like clichéd, but you know, tonight after we clichéd, but you know, tonight after we clichéd, but you know, tonight after we tape, which is taping on a Monday night tape, which is taping on a Monday night tape, which is taping on a Monday night New York time, right? I can like wander New York time, right? I can like wander New York time, right? I can like wander around around around the streets of New York and there'll be the streets of New York and there'll be the streets of New York and there'll be some like Norwegian bar that has Norway some like Norwegian bar that has Norway some like Norwegian bar that has Norway game on and like that does make America game on and like that does make America game on and like that does make America great and like rediscovering those great and like rediscovering those great and like rediscovering those values. I don't know. I mean, maybe values. I don't know. I mean, maybe values. I don't know. I mean, maybe somebody like a somebody like a somebody like a you know, I think maybe the most you know, I think maybe the most you know, I think maybe the most electable Democrat might be somebody electable Democrat might be somebody electable Democrat might be somebody like a like a like a a Jon Ossoff who is who is younger, who a Jon Ossoff who is who is younger, who a Jon Ossoff who is who is younger, who is pretty progressive you look at his is pretty progressive you look at his is pretty progressive you look at his voting record, but like but isn't like a voting record, but like but isn't like a voting record, but like but isn't like a brawler in quite the same way that that brawler in quite the same way that that brawler in quite the same way that that Newsom is trying to be. I mean, the Newsom is trying to be. I mean, the Newsom is trying to be. I mean, the generational part is a lot of this. Uh generational part is a lot of this. Uh generational part is a lot of this. Uh you know, I think it's you know, I think it's you know, I think it's insane that we had a candidate insane that we had a candidate insane that we had a candidate who was trying to be president until he who was trying to be president until he who was trying to be president until he was 86 and the alternative is somebody was 86 and the alternative is somebody was 86 and the alternative is somebody who's trying to be president until he's who's trying to be president until he's who's trying to be president until he's 82. Like I I don't You don't see very 82. Like I I don't You don't see very 82. Like I I don't You don't see very many Warren Buffett find If Warren many Warren Buffett find If Warren many Warren Buffett find If Warren Buffett ran for president, maybe I'd Buffett ran for president, maybe I'd Buffett ran for president, maybe I'd vote for him, right? But like you don't vote for him, right? But like you don't vote for him, right? But like you don't see very many leaders in the first of see very many leaders in the first of see very many leaders in the first of the world. You don't see very many CEOs the world. You don't see very many CEOs the world. You don't see very many CEOs or leaders otherwise. or leaders otherwise. or leaders otherwise. I you know, I very much value the I you know, I very much value the I you know, I very much value the contribution of my older friends, right? contribution of my older friends, right? contribution of my older friends, right? But like to run the biggest country in But like to run the biggest country in But like to run the biggest country in the world um the world um the world um as an 82-year-old to me seems kind of as an 82-year-old to me seems kind of as an 82-year-old to me seems kind of insane. insane. insane. >> And so there's some basic level of >> And so there's some basic level of >> And so there's some basic level of competence that Mondami is showing in competence that Mondami is showing in competence that Mondami is showing in New York. He's positive. He's fixing New York. He's positive. He's fixing New York. He's positive. He's fixing potholes. He's making it, you know, a potholes. He's making it, you know, a potholes. He's making it, you know, a celebration of whatever the sports teams celebration of whatever the sports teams celebration of whatever the sports teams are. He He's fixing garbage. Like there are. He He's fixing garbage. Like there are. He He's fixing garbage. Like there are some basic things that New York is are some basic things that New York is are some basic things that New York is very much appreciating in quality of very much appreciating in quality of very much appreciating in quality of life. And that's not something you life. And that's not something you life. And that's not something you expect from a Democrat or a socialist. expect from a Democrat or a socialist. expect from a Democrat or a socialist. Um and it those kind of like blocking Um and it those kind of like blocking Um and it those kind of like blocking and tackling and the high level of and tackling and the high level of and tackling and the high level of engagement um which Trump you mentioned engagement um which Trump you mentioned engagement um which Trump you mentioned kind of burns people out with that high kind of burns people out with that high kind of burns people out with that high level of engagement, seems like Mondami level of engagement, seems like Mondami level of engagement, seems like Mondami comes just under that. He's a little comes just under that. He's a little comes just under that. He's a little more positive. He doesn't use like the more positive. He doesn't use like the more positive. He doesn't use like the toxicity that much. toxicity that much. toxicity that much. But he's he's engaging, right? And that But he's he's engaging, right? And that But he's he's engaging, right? And that seems to be working in New York and with seems to be working in New York and with seems to be working in New York and with the voter base, no? the voter base, no? the voter base, no? >> I He's pretty popular here so far. And >> I He's pretty popular here so far. And >> I He's pretty popular here so far. And again, New York is a New York is a again, New York is a New York is a again, New York is a New York is a capitalist city, I think. I think it's capitalist city, I think. I think it's capitalist city, I think. I think it's different than somewhere like different than somewhere like different than somewhere like California. It's not kind of as West California. It's not kind of as West California. It's not kind of as West Coast uh freshwater progressive. New Coast uh freshwater progressive. New Coast uh freshwater progressive. New York is a pragmatic place that people York is a pragmatic place that people York is a pragmatic place that people from all around the world migrate to. from all around the world migrate to. from all around the world migrate to. It's a place where there's It's a place where there's It's a place where there's a lot of wealth all around you. It's a lot of wealth all around you. It's a lot of wealth all around you. It's also a place that despite seeming like a also a place that despite seeming like a also a place that despite seeming like a chaotic show at times. I mean, it's chaotic show at times. I mean, it's chaotic show at times. I mean, it's look, it's easy to be optimistic about look, it's easy to be optimistic about look, it's easy to be optimistic about New York in in mid-June when we have New York in in mid-June when we have New York in in mid-June when we have like the most beautiful weather of the like the most beautiful weather of the like the most beautiful weather of the year and everyone's coming to visit and year and everyone's coming to visit and year and everyone's coming to visit and everything else. But like but New York everything else. But like but New York everything else. But like but New York is a success story in a way that I think is a success story in a way that I think is a success story in a way that I think California has become less of one, California has become less of one, California has become less of one, maybe. maybe. maybe. >> Sorry, let me just ask you a question on >> Sorry, let me just ask you a question on >> Sorry, let me just ask you a question on this capitalism. Have you seen data this capitalism. Have you seen data this capitalism. Have you seen data that underscores that underscores that underscores this mainline that everyone's talking this mainline that everyone's talking this mainline that everyone's talking about that the youth are kind of about that the youth are kind of about that the youth are kind of disillusioned by capitalism and don't disillusioned by capitalism and don't disillusioned by capitalism and don't believe in capitalism? I mean, to see believe in capitalism? I mean, to see believe in capitalism? I mean, to see this happen in a city like New York, to this happen in a city like New York, to this happen in a city like New York, to your point, a city that is a bastion of your point, a city that is a bastion of your point, a city that is a bastion of capitalism and progress and opportunity capitalism and progress and opportunity capitalism and progress and opportunity for people for people to put in place a for people for people to put in place a for people for people to put in place a candidate as mayor that denounces the candidate as mayor that denounces the candidate as mayor that denounces the capitalism as a system and talks about capitalism as a system and talks about capitalism as a system and talks about collectivism, just seems to indicate collectivism, just seems to indicate collectivism, just seems to indicate that maybe there's a real movement with that maybe there's a real movement with that maybe there's a real movement with the youth. I mean, one of the statistics the youth. I mean, one of the statistics the youth. I mean, one of the statistics I always quote to people is I think 45 I always quote to people is I think 45 I always quote to people is I think 45 million people graduated college in the million people graduated college in the million people graduated college in the last decade in the United States that last decade in the United States that last decade in the United States that have all of them or a a large percentage have all of them or a a large percentage have all of them or a a large percentage of them, I should say, of them, I should say, of them, I should say, have a pretty significant debt burden have a pretty significant debt burden have a pretty significant debt burden that they feel is going to be very hard that they feel is going to be very hard that they feel is going to be very hard to get out of. And I would argue that to get out of. And I would argue that to get out of. And I would argue that that's a function of the federal student that's a function of the federal student that's a function of the federal student loan program and its underwriting loan program and its underwriting loan program and its underwriting processes and it really condemned people processes and it really condemned people processes and it really condemned people to a life that is going to be very hard to a life that is going to be very hard to a life that is going to be very hard to grow your way out of. But what does to grow your way out of. But what does to grow your way out of. But what does the data tell you about capitalism and the data tell you about capitalism and the data tell you about capitalism and what that says about the next cycle what that says about the next cycle what that says about the next cycle here? here? here? >> Yeah, where the cut point is is probably >> Yeah, where the cut point is is probably >> Yeah, where the cut point is is probably around age 40, I'd say. Obviously, it around age 40, I'd say. Obviously, it around age 40, I'd say. Obviously, it kind of ages by a year every year and kind of ages by a year every year and kind of ages by a year every year and like, you know, we saw I saw before the like, you know, we saw I saw before the like, you know, we saw I saw before the New York mayoral race last year, people New York mayoral race last year, people New York mayoral race last year, people who were able to make incredibly who were able to make incredibly who were able to make incredibly accurate, almost block-by-block, accurate, almost block-by-block, accurate, almost block-by-block, neighborhood-by-neighborhood projections neighborhood-by-neighborhood projections neighborhood-by-neighborhood projections based on where Zorn would be good versus based on where Zorn would be good versus based on where Zorn would be good versus Cuomo just based on knowing the city and Cuomo just based on knowing the city and Cuomo just based on knowing the city and where younger people, younger, more where younger people, younger, more where younger people, younger, more progressive people live, I would say. progressive people live, I would say. progressive people live, I would say. You know, I think part of it might have You know, I think part of it might have You know, I think part of it might have to do with economic anxiety for sure. I to do with economic anxiety for sure. I to do with economic anxiety for sure. I think it's also your experience like think it's also your experience like think it's also your experience like growing up and exactly when you kind of growing up and exactly when you kind of growing up and exactly when you kind of came of age, right? Again, I grew up in came of age, right? Again, I grew up in came of age, right? Again, I grew up in like, um, like, um, like, um, I guess the first election I was old I guess the first election I was old I guess the first election I was old enough to vote in was Clinton enough to vote in was Clinton enough to vote in was Clinton >> [clears throat] >> [clears throat] >> [clears throat] >> in '96. This is like the triumph >> in '96. This is like the triumph >> in '96. This is like the triumph of the West and capitalism. You had a of the West and capitalism. You had a of the West and capitalism. You had a very robust economy in the 1990s. You very robust economy in the 1990s. You very robust economy in the 1990s. You had a lot of growth. Um, had a lot of growth. Um, had a lot of growth. Um, and by the time you get to your, you and by the time you get to your, you and by the time you get to your, you know, when the Great Recession hit, you know, when the Great Recession hit, you know, when the Great Recession hit, you know, I already had by a year, right? I know, I already had by a year, right? I know, I already had by a year, right? I already had a job. I already had a already had a job. I already had a already had a job. I already had a foothold. I think the people kind of foothold. I think the people kind of foothold. I think the people kind of like born like born like born If you were in college If you were in college If you were in college when September 11th happened, like that when September 11th happened, like that when September 11th happened, like that might be kind of the the cut point, might be kind of the the cut point, might be kind of the the cut point, roughly speaking. It doesn't cut quite roughly speaking. It doesn't cut quite roughly speaking. It doesn't cut quite cleanly from Gen X through millennials. cleanly from Gen X through millennials. cleanly from Gen X through millennials. It goes a few years into the It goes a few years into the It goes a few years into the millennials. Um, millennials. Um, millennials. Um, but like sometimes I kind of joke, it but like sometimes I kind of joke, it but like sometimes I kind of joke, it seems to me like people like in their seems to me like people like in their seems to me like people like in their 40s through early 50s are like the only 40s through early 50s are like the only 40s through early 50s are like the only like sane people like sane people like sane people in the US, right? That kind of like in the US, right? That kind of like in the US, right? That kind of like second half of of Gen X in particular, second half of of Gen X in particular, second half of of Gen X in particular, although we've never had a Gen X although we've never had a Gen X although we've never had a Gen X president. Kamala Harris would have been president. Kamala Harris would have been president. Kamala Harris would have been a boomer, too, technically speaking. Um, a boomer, too, technically speaking. Um, a boomer, too, technically speaking. Um, but they're the people who are like, but they're the people who are like, but they're the people who are like, "Okay, we grew up and we worked hard and "Okay, we grew up and we worked hard and "Okay, we grew up and we worked hard and we still felt like more or less the we still felt like more or less the we still felt like more or less the American system worked for us." I I American system worked for us." I I American system worked for us." I I think people wrongly or rightly that are think people wrongly or rightly that are think people wrongly or rightly that are half a generation younger half a generation younger half a generation younger don't have that experience. Also, we don't have that experience. Also, we don't have that experience. Also, we should talk about, like as much as I should talk about, like as much as I should talk about, like as much as I think that in certain ways the media is think that in certain ways the media is think that in certain ways the media is an overrated storyline. How people an overrated storyline. How people an overrated storyline. How people consume their news, um consume their news, um consume their news, um you know, you look now at what's you know, you look now at what's you know, you look now at what's happening at CBS and Paramount or CNN or happening at CBS and Paramount or CNN or happening at CBS and Paramount or CNN or whatever else, right? We had an era whatever else, right? We had an era whatever else, right? We had an era where you had very centralized where you had very centralized where you had very centralized news delivery systems under TV and news delivery systems under TV and news delivery systems under TV and radio. I know I sound like I'm dating radio. I know I sound like I'm dating radio. I know I sound like I'm dating myself. The internet's been around for myself. The internet's been around for myself. The internet's been around for for a long time, but when you have three for a long time, but when you have three for a long time, but when you have three or four major networks that have a huge or four major networks that have a huge or four major networks that have a huge amount of editorial control over the amount of editorial control over the amount of editorial control over the message and like I used to work at the message and like I used to work at the message and like I used to work at the New York Times, right? You know, when I New York Times, right? You know, when I New York Times, right? You know, when I first got there, you would still have first got there, you would still have first got there, you would still have like the page one meeting every day like the page one meeting every day like the page one meeting every day where it's like we are the people the where it's like we are the people the where it's like we are the people the editors at the New York Times like editors at the New York Times like editors at the New York Times like deciding like what is news and what's deciding like what is news and what's deciding like what is news and what's not and now it's become not and now it's become not and now it's become very decentralized. Obviously, social very decentralized. Obviously, social very decentralized. Obviously, social media plays a role in that, too. I think media plays a role in that, too. I think media plays a role in that, too. I think the evidence is pretty decent at like uh the evidence is pretty decent at like uh the evidence is pretty decent at like uh phones and social media affect youth phones and social media affect youth phones and social media affect youth satisfaction a lot. You know, you also satisfaction a lot. You know, you also satisfaction a lot. You know, you also have a culture, I think, among liberals have a culture, I think, among liberals have a culture, I think, among liberals where um where um where um where it's like no longer a stoic where it's like no longer a stoic where it's like no longer a stoic culture. It's a culture where maybe you culture. It's a culture where maybe you culture. It's a culture where maybe you might express your grievance. might express your grievance. might express your grievance. Ironically, maybe AI will change this a Ironically, maybe AI will change this a Ironically, maybe AI will change this a little bit. There's some initial little bit. There's some initial little bit. There's some initial evidence that like the models actually evidence that like the models actually evidence that like the models actually gravitate toward consensus views, expert gravitate toward consensus views, expert gravitate toward consensus views, expert opinion, sometimes a a jaded or opinion, sometimes a a jaded or opinion, sometimes a a jaded or hallucinated version of what the hallucinated version of what the hallucinated version of what the consensus really is. consensus really is. consensus really is. But, you know, Claude or ChatGPT is But, you know, Claude or ChatGPT is But, you know, Claude or ChatGPT is probably less polarizing than Blue Sky probably less polarizing than Blue Sky probably less polarizing than Blue Sky or Twitter. or Twitter. or Twitter. >> Let's talk about social media for a >> Let's talk about social media for a >> Let's talk about social media for a second. It used to be a paradigm of you second. It used to be a paradigm of you second. It used to be a paradigm of you follow people, you build your filter, follow people, you build your filter, follow people, you build your filter, you have your list, you spend a lot of you have your list, you spend a lot of you have your list, you spend a lot of time curating that. And then TikTok time curating that. And then TikTok time curating that. And then TikTok comes out with their for you page, FYP. comes out with their for you page, FYP. comes out with their for you page, FYP. YouTube goes full algorithm, and now X YouTube goes full algorithm, and now X YouTube goes full algorithm, and now X has gone basically full algorithm. You has gone basically full algorithm. You has gone basically full algorithm. You can follow whoever you like, but your can follow whoever you like, but your can follow whoever you like, but your follower count is not your viewer count follower count is not your viewer count follower count is not your viewer count and engagement count. And obviously, and engagement count. And obviously, and engagement count. And obviously, after Elon took over Twitter, libs, a after Elon took over Twitter, libs, a after Elon took over Twitter, libs, a lot of celebrities decided to leave. lot of celebrities decided to leave. lot of celebrities decided to leave. Business people stayed, lots of Business people stayed, lots of Business people stayed, lots of anonymous accounts. It's the free speech anonymous accounts. It's the free speech anonymous accounts. It's the free speech platform of all free speech platforms. platform of all free speech platforms. platform of all free speech platforms. It's chaotic. It's chaotic. It's chaotic. But what impact, just in that very tiny But what impact, just in that very tiny But what impact, just in that very tiny nuance of followers nuance of followers nuance of followers to algorithm, has changed and impacted to algorithm, has changed and impacted to algorithm, has changed and impacted politics? Because it feels like the politics? Because it feels like the politics? Because it feels like the filter bubble filter bubble filter bubble is becoming incredibly pronounced. I is becoming incredibly pronounced. I is becoming incredibly pronounced. I mean, you you give two or three things a mean, you you give two or three things a mean, you you give two or three things a like and now that's the rest of your like and now that's the rest of your like and now that's the rest of your entire day. entire day. entire day. >> Yeah, look, for me >> Yeah, look, for me >> Yeah, look, for me I don't think a person should have a I don't think a person should have a I don't think a person should have a correlated stance on taxes and abortion correlated stance on taxes and abortion correlated stance on taxes and abortion and and and and Gaza and, you know, the free market and Gaza and, you know, the free market and Gaza and, you know, the free market and whatever else. Um and whatever else. Um and whatever else. Um Partisanship is a very powerful force to Partisanship is a very powerful force to Partisanship is a very powerful force to squish this sort of complicated array of squish this sort of complicated array of squish this sort of complicated array of political issues we have in the United political issues we have in the United political issues we have in the United States on into into just one dimension, States on into into just one dimension, States on into into just one dimension, blue versus red or left versus right. blue versus red or left versus right. blue versus red or left versus right. And social media, Twitter in particular, And social media, Twitter in particular, And social media, Twitter in particular, I think is a very effective mechanism I think is a very effective mechanism I think is a very effective mechanism for that. And I get I get totally yelled for that. And I get I get totally yelled for that. And I get I get totally yelled at for um at for um at for um any bit of heterodoxy, like in any bit of heterodoxy, like in any bit of heterodoxy, like in particular like saying, "Biden is particular like saying, "Biden is particular like saying, "Biden is obviously too old. Democrats you're obviously too old. Democrats you're obviously too old. Democrats you're going to you're going to lose unless you going to you're going to lose unless you going to you're going to lose unless you replace him." Like that, even though replace him." Like that, even though replace him." Like that, even though it's a stance that like literally 80% of it's a stance that like literally 80% of it's a stance that like literally 80% of voters agree with, will make you like voters agree with, will make you like voters agree with, will make you like seem like a heretic on Twitter. I've seem like a heretic on Twitter. I've seem like a heretic on Twitter. I've been critical, by the way, of been critical, by the way, of been critical, by the way, of of parts of what Elon has done. Although of parts of what Elon has done. Although of parts of what Elon has done. Although some of the things predate him, like the some of the things predate him, like the some of the things predate him, like the algorithmic feed um wasn't purely algorithmic feed um wasn't purely algorithmic feed um wasn't purely invented by Elon. It was improved or invented by Elon. It was improved or invented by Elon. It was improved or perfected or worsened, depending on your perfected or worsened, depending on your perfected or worsened, depending on your point of view, by the current regime. point of view, by the current regime. point of view, by the current regime. You know, I do think it's a problem that You know, I do think it's a problem that You know, I do think it's a problem that like like if I choose to follow an like like if I choose to follow an like like if I choose to follow an account, you Jason of the New York Times account, you Jason of the New York Times account, you Jason of the New York Times or whatever else or NYX account, I want or whatever else or NYX account, I want or whatever else or NYX account, I want to see their tweets without having to to see their tweets without having to to see their tweets without having to give the algorithm additional signal. give the algorithm additional signal. give the algorithm additional signal. Like that part bothers me. I don't like Like that part bothers me. I don't like Like that part bothers me. I don't like the depreciation Twitter debates is the depreciation Twitter debates is the depreciation Twitter debates is about about about >> frustrating. Like you literally have to >> frustrating. Like you literally have to >> frustrating. Like you literally have to favorite or like things in order to keep favorite or like things in order to keep favorite or like things in order to keep them in your feed. And I told the them in your feed. And I told the them in your feed. And I told the Twitter team, Twitter team, Twitter team, "You should have a little button on the "You should have a little button on the "You should have a little button on the follow. Show me every post from this follow. Show me every post from this follow. Show me every post from this person." Like if I want to get my ski person." Like if I want to get my ski person." Like if I want to get my ski mountains reports or I want my Knicks mountains reports or I want my Knicks mountains reports or I want my Knicks Fan TV, I want every single post and Fan TV, I want every single post and Fan TV, I want every single post and there's no way to do that except like there's no way to do that except like there's no way to do that except like every post and then your feed just goes every post and then your feed just goes every post and then your feed just goes off the rails. off the rails. off the rails. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> Mhm. >> Yeah, I mean it's very >> Yeah, I mean it's very >> Yeah, I mean it's very Look, I actually think the for you Look, I actually think the for you Look, I actually think the for you algorithm is pretty decent for what it algorithm is pretty decent for what it algorithm is pretty decent for what it is. You you have to train it. Like you is. You you have to train it. Like you is. You you have to train it. Like you know, for a while I got a bunch of like know, for a while I got a bunch of like know, for a while I got a bunch of like fight videos cuz they're compelling. You fight videos cuz they're compelling. You fight videos cuz they're compelling. You see it like a fight of teenagers and see it like a fight of teenagers and see it like a fight of teenagers and like oh, I'm I spent 8 minutes seconds like oh, I'm I spent 8 minutes seconds like oh, I'm I spent 8 minutes seconds watching this or whatever else, right? If you click don't show me this anymore, If you click don't show me this anymore, it is pretty responsive and is pretty it is pretty responsive and is pretty it is pretty responsive and is pretty good. Like the algorithm knows right good. Like the algorithm knows right good. Like the algorithm knows right now, I just want to retweets about the now, I just want to retweets about the now, I just want to retweets about the World Cup and is Yiannis getting traded, World Cup and is Yiannis getting traded, World Cup and is Yiannis getting traded, right? And maybe a little bit about the right? And maybe a little bit about the right? And maybe a little bit about the New York and California elections. Um New York and California elections. Um New York and California elections. Um but I wish there were like but I wish there were like but I wish there were like you know, I I I don't like any algorithm you know, I I I don't like any algorithm you know, I I I don't like any algorithm that like that like that like presumes it's like smarter than the user presumes it's like smarter than the user presumes it's like smarter than the user and if I if I log in or if I subscribe and if I if I log in or if I subscribe and if I if I log in or if I subscribe to somebody and I want to see their to somebody and I want to see their to somebody and I want to see their tweets and I haven't muted them, then tweets and I haven't muted them, then tweets and I haven't muted them, then show me their tweets. You can mix in show me their tweets. You can mix in show me their tweets. You can mix in things that you think I'll like. things that you think I'll like. things that you think I'll like. Breaking the algorithmic or the time the Breaking the algorithmic or the time the Breaking the algorithmic or the time the chronological feed is also annoying to chronological feed is also annoying to chronological feed is also annoying to me, right? Like I want um me, right? Like I want um me, right? Like I want um if I'm watching the World Cup and if I'm watching the World Cup and if I'm watching the World Cup and there's a tweet about a match from 6 there's a tweet about a match from 6 there's a tweet about a match from 6 hours ago, someone's like oh my god, hours ago, someone's like oh my god, hours ago, someone's like oh my god, amazing, right? I'm like what just amazing, right? I'm like what just amazing, right? I'm like what just happened and like it's not surfacing happened and like it's not surfacing happened and like it's not surfacing things in quite the right order. Um things in quite the right order. Um things in quite the right order. Um Look, I think a lot of companies kind of Look, I think a lot of companies kind of Look, I think a lot of companies kind of make the mistake of uh make the mistake of uh make the mistake of uh Twitter was I'm not sure if Twitter was Twitter was I'm not sure if Twitter was Twitter was I'm not sure if Twitter was ever going to be like a hugely ever going to be like a hugely ever going to be like a hugely profitable company. It was a very unique profitable company. It was a very unique profitable company. It was a very unique resource for following the news if like resource for following the news if like resource for following the news if like I am and like you guys are, at least you I am and like you guys are, at least you I am and like you guys are, at least you Jason are a like total news addict. Like Jason are a like total news addict. Like Jason are a like total news addict. Like it was a very unique platform and I wish it was a very unique platform and I wish it was a very unique platform and I wish that functionality had been that functionality had been that functionality had been preserved. Again, to be fair, preserved. Again, to be fair, preserved. Again, to be fair, um this started before Elon, although it um this started before Elon, although it um this started before Elon, although it has been continued since. has been continued since. has been continued since. >> Let let's wrap on 2028 and in particular >> Let let's wrap on 2028 and in particular >> Let let's wrap on 2028 and in particular Gavin Newsom. Gavin Newsom. Gavin Newsom. >> Oh no, And that's for the midterms. >> Oh no, And that's for the midterms. >> Oh no, And that's for the midterms. Predictions for the midterms. Predictions for the midterms. Predictions for the midterms. >> Lightning round. Prediction for the >> Lightning round. Prediction for the >> Lightning round. Prediction for the midterms. midterms. midterms. >> House House and Senate predictions. What >> House House and Senate predictions. What >> House House and Senate predictions. What does the data tell us right now? does the data tell us right now? does the data tell us right now? >> So we'll have a model out within a few >> So we'll have a model out within a few >> So we'll have a model out within a few weeks. Been a little a little bit weeks. Been a little a little bit weeks. Been a little a little bit delayed by the World Cup and they were delayed by the World Cup and they were delayed by the World Cup and they were just writing stuff. Prediction markets just writing stuff. Prediction markets just writing stuff. Prediction markets say Democrats are around I think 80 or say Democrats are around I think 80 or say Democrats are around I think 80 or 85% to take the House and 40 or 45% to 85% to take the House and 40 or 45% to 85% to take the House and 40 or 45% to take the Senate. Those both seem pretty take the Senate. Those both seem pretty take the Senate. Those both seem pretty reasonable to me. I think if anything reasonable to me. I think if anything reasonable to me. I think if anything it's a little bit low on the House. Um I it's a little bit low on the House. Um I it's a little bit low on the House. Um I think it might be more like 85 or 90. My think it might be more like 85 or 90. My think it might be more like 85 or 90. My model surprised me sometimes but like model surprised me sometimes but like model surprised me sometimes but like look, we've been through a lot of look, we've been through a lot of look, we've been through a lot of elections that are inherently hard to elections that are inherently hard to elections that are inherently hard to forecast. The House is the one where forecast. The House is the one where forecast. The House is the one where everything kind of points in the same everything kind of points in the same everything kind of points in the same direction. Democrats um are facing a direction. Democrats um are facing a direction. Democrats um are facing a very unpopular president and an economy very unpopular president and an economy very unpopular president and an economy that voters have a lot of anxiety about. that voters have a lot of anxiety about. that voters have a lot of anxiety about. Trump no new Middle Eastern wars. On top Trump no new Middle Eastern wars. On top Trump no new Middle Eastern wars. On top of that, the very very long history of of that, the very very long history of of that, the very very long history of the president's party drawing a backlash the president's party drawing a backlash the president's party drawing a backlash and performing poorly at the midterms. and performing poorly at the midterms. and performing poorly at the midterms. The more recent history of incumbent The more recent history of incumbent The more recent history of incumbent backlash in the US and all around the backlash in the US and all around the backlash in the US and all around the world. The good results Democrats in world. The good results Democrats in world. The good results Democrats in like New Jersey and Virginia last year like New Jersey and Virginia last year like New Jersey and Virginia last year and special elections. You know, look, and special elections. You know, look, and special elections. You know, look, the redistricting thing helps the GOP a the redistricting thing helps the GOP a the redistricting thing helps the GOP a little bit in the end but you're little bit in the end but you're little bit in the end but you're fighting against a lot of gravity. fighting against a lot of gravity. fighting against a lot of gravity. Whereas the Senate is more of a Whereas the Senate is more of a Whereas the Senate is more of a more of a numbers game. Even in a pretty more of a numbers game. Even in a pretty more of a numbers game. Even in a pretty blue environment, Democrats have to win blue environment, Democrats have to win blue environment, Democrats have to win some seats in red states. It seems to me some seats in red states. It seems to me some seats in red states. It seems to me that taking a big risk in Maine, which that taking a big risk in Maine, which that taking a big risk in Maine, which is a state that by all rights they ought is a state that by all rights they ought is a state that by all rights they ought to win in a D plus eight year in a D to win in a D plus eight year in a D to win in a D plus eight year in a D plus 10 state, Democrat Plaitner is only plus 10 state, Democrat Plaitner is only plus 10 state, Democrat Plaitner is only two points ahead of Susan Collins. I two points ahead of Susan Collins. I two points ahead of Susan Collins. I think I take that polling at face value. think I take that polling at face value. think I take that polling at face value. I think he is. I take him at 50/50 but I think he is. I take him at 50/50 but I think he is. I take him at 50/50 but like that's a unnecessary risk like that's a unnecessary risk like that's a unnecessary risk potentially. potentially. potentially. Um but look, um Um but look, um Um but look, um the GOP will be able to in these red the GOP will be able to in these red the GOP will be able to in these red states a candidate like Talarico, who's states a candidate like Talarico, who's states a candidate like Talarico, who's also probably in roughly a toss-up race also probably in roughly a toss-up race also probably in roughly a toss-up race and and Paxton is a far less than ideal and and Paxton is a far less than ideal and and Paxton is a far less than ideal Republican nominee. Republican nominee. Republican nominee. Like partisanship is still a powerful Like partisanship is still a powerful Like partisanship is still a powerful force. People are saying why are they force. People are saying why are they force. People are saying why are they kind of attacking Talarico on kind of attacking Talarico on kind of attacking Talarico on I think things that are are I think things that are are I think things that are are not above board, you know, critiquing not above board, you know, critiquing not above board, you know, critiquing her sexuality or whatever else? Well, her sexuality or whatever else? Well, her sexuality or whatever else? Well, cuz Texas is like a really red state and cuz Texas is like a really red state and cuz Texas is like a really red state and like Trump's not popular, so you're like like Trump's not popular, so you're like like Trump's not popular, so you're like you're kind of going for like the lowest you're kind of going for like the lowest you're kind of going for like the lowest common denominator, but in our system common denominator, but in our system common denominator, but in our system that works a fair amount of the time. that works a fair amount of the time. that works a fair amount of the time. So, it's just a So, it's just a So, it's just a a polling and math and numbers game in a polling and math and numbers game in a polling and math and numbers game in the Senate. We're going to see the Senate. We're going to see the Senate. We're going to see more money spent than ever. Whereas the more money spent than ever. Whereas the more money spent than ever. Whereas the House, 435 seats, I think the partisan House, 435 seats, I think the partisan House, 435 seats, I think the partisan gravity is more likely than not just too gravity is more likely than not just too gravity is more likely than not just too much for Trump to overcome. much for Trump to overcome. much for Trump to overcome. >> Is there anything that Trump can do or >> Is there anything that Trump can do or >> Is there anything that Trump can do or that could change in a macro out of our that could change in a macro out of our that could change in a macro out of our control perspective that could shift control perspective that could shift control perspective that could shift things more significantly for the House things more significantly for the House things more significantly for the House back to the Republicans? back to the Republicans? back to the Republicans? >> If he can get gas prices down, it's such >> If he can get gas prices down, it's such >> If he can get gas prices down, it's such a visible indicator. You drive by the a visible indicator. You drive by the a visible indicator. You drive by the Chevron station or whatever else, right? Chevron station or whatever else, right? Chevron station or whatever else, right? You you literally see it. You know, I You you literally see it. You know, I You you literally see it. You know, I think if you look at forecasts, there's think if you look at forecasts, there's think if you look at forecasts, there's supposed to be some abatement, but very supposed to be some abatement, but very supposed to be some abatement, but very contingent on how long the conflict war contingent on how long the conflict war contingent on how long the conflict war in Iran persists in this quagmire. Um in Iran persists in this quagmire. Um in Iran persists in this quagmire. Um you know, look, maybe if we you know, look, maybe if we you know, look, maybe if we maybe if we have a AGI, right? maybe if we have a AGI, right? maybe if we have a AGI, right? >> [laughter] >> [laughter] >> [laughter] >> By by in October or something, who knows >> By by in October or something, who knows >> By by in October or something, who knows what happens then? But no, it's what happens then? But no, it's what happens then? But no, it's his unfavorable ratings are very his unfavorable ratings are very his unfavorable ratings are very entrenched and Democrats are very entrenched and Democrats are very entrenched and Democrats are very enthusiastic despite their misgivings enthusiastic despite their misgivings enthusiastic despite their misgivings about their own party and as much about their own party and as much about their own party and as much difficulty as I think they'll have in difficulty as I think they'll have in difficulty as I think they'll have in 2028 nominating a candidate to vote for 2028 nominating a candidate to vote for 2028 nominating a candidate to vote for your generic Democrat against a generic your generic Democrat against a generic your generic Democrat against a generic Republican is a pretty easy ask for for Republican is a pretty easy ask for for Republican is a pretty easy ask for for Democrats who feel like democracy is on Democrats who feel like democracy is on Democrats who feel like democracy is on the line and like and like so I think the line and like and like so I think the line and like and like so I think that's fairly baked in. As someone who that's fairly baked in. As someone who that's fairly baked in. As someone who builds models, I don't bet on politics, builds models, I don't bet on politics, builds models, I don't bet on politics, I bet on sports, but I'm always aware I bet on sports, but I'm always aware I bet on sports, but I'm always aware that like yeah, there's the that like yeah, there's the that like yeah, there's the 10% chance that the underdog you never 10% chance that the underdog you never 10% chance that the underdog you never see coming prevails, you know, Cape see coming prevails, you know, Cape see coming prevails, you know, Cape Verde ties with Spain or something, but Verde ties with Spain or something, but Verde ties with Spain or something, but like that's pretty fundamentally driven, like that's pretty fundamentally driven, like that's pretty fundamentally driven, whereas on the on the flip side whereas on the on the flip side whereas on the on the flip side needing to pick up four Senate seats needing to pick up four Senate seats needing to pick up four Senate seats when you might blow the opportunity in when you might blow the opportunity in when you might blow the opportunity in Maine, it's a toss-up. Probably probably Maine, it's a toss-up. Probably probably Maine, it's a toss-up. Probably probably slight edge to the GOP with maybe gas slight edge to the GOP with maybe gas slight edge to the GOP with maybe gas prices and Iran determining whether it's prices and Iran determining whether it's prices and Iran determining whether it's more truly 50/50 or maybe maybe 60% GOP. more truly 50/50 or maybe maybe 60% GOP. more truly 50/50 or maybe maybe 60% GOP. >> The chance of winning both is that, you >> The chance of winning both is that, you >> The chance of winning both is that, you know, 80 * 40 type situation and you're know, 80 * 40 type situation and you're know, 80 * 40 type situation and you're or is it different because of politics or is it different because of politics or is it different because of politics and and the way the statistics work? and and the way the statistics work? and and the way the statistics work? >> They're highly correlated. Yeah. >> They're highly correlated. Yeah. >> They're highly correlated. Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> They're they're almost perfectly >> They're they're almost perfectly >> They're they're almost perfectly correlated. So, if the odds of Democrats correlated. So, if the odds of Democrats correlated. So, if the odds of Democrats winning the Senate but not the House are winning the Senate but not the House are winning the Senate but not the House are like are like 1%. If you go to Calshi or like are like 1%. If you go to Calshi or like are like 1%. If you go to Calshi or Polymarket, whatever else, it has to be Polymarket, whatever else, it has to be Polymarket, whatever else, it has to be like around 1%. So, conditional on like around 1%. So, conditional on like around 1%. So, conditional on Democrats winning Democrats winning Democrats winning the Senate, they'll almost certainly the Senate, they'll almost certainly the Senate, they'll almost certainly have have have won the House, so almost certainly have won the House, so almost certainly have won the House, so almost certainly have won governorships, which by the way, won governorships, which by the way, won governorships, which by the way, these things are important, you know, I these things are important, you know, I these things are important, you know, I think people probably focus too much on think people probably focus too much on think people probably focus too much on the national picture and not enough on the national picture and not enough on the national picture and not enough on on what happens at the state level where on what happens at the state level where on what happens at the state level where people actually have executive power and people actually have executive power and people actually have executive power and you're picking the the candidates and you're picking the the candidates and you're picking the the candidates and the policies for the next generation. the policies for the next generation. the policies for the next generation. State legislatures are important. If I State legislatures are important. If I State legislatures are important. If I were were were talking to all of the listeners, right, talking to all of the listeners, right, talking to all of the listeners, right, I'd say look for like a I'd say look for like a I'd say look for like a a city council candidate for whom your a city council candidate for whom your a city council candidate for whom your contribution might make a lot of contribution might make a lot of contribution might make a lot of difference. But like, no, if Democrats difference. But like, no, if Democrats difference. But like, no, if Democrats win the Senate, that means it's a really win the Senate, that means it's a really win the Senate, that means it's a really blue year to overcome the fact that blue year to overcome the fact that blue year to overcome the fact that you're winning in places like Ohio, you're winning in places like Ohio, you're winning in places like Ohio, Iowa, Alaska. And if that happens, Iowa, Alaska. And if that happens, Iowa, Alaska. And if that happens, therefore probably the rest of it all therefore probably the rest of it all therefore probably the rest of it all the dominoes fall that way. the dominoes fall that way. the dominoes fall that way. >> All right, Gavin Newsom in 2028. He's in >> All right, Gavin Newsom in 2028. He's in >> All right, Gavin Newsom in 2028. He's in an enigma of a politician. Worst run an enigma of a politician. Worst run an enigma of a politician. Worst run state in the union as far as I'm state in the union as far as I'm state in the union as far as I'm concerned, but he's so polished and he concerned, but he's so polished and he concerned, but he's so polished and he speaks so well and people seem to like speaks so well and people seem to like speaks so well and people seem to like him with that great hair. What should we him with that great hair. What should we him with that great hair. What should we take from Gavin Newsom's take from Gavin Newsom's take from Gavin Newsom's you know, continued ascension? Am I you know, continued ascension? Am I you know, continued ascension? Am I correct that he's still, correct that he's still, correct that he's still, you know, on the up? you know, on the up? you know, on the up? >> He's not. So, we have an article up on >> He's not. So, we have an article up on >> He's not. So, we have an article up on Silver Bulletin which we'll publish Silver Bulletin which we'll publish Silver Bulletin which we'll publish shortly after we finish this podcast. shortly after we finish this podcast. shortly after we finish this podcast. Newsom has fallen in Democratic the Newsom has fallen in Democratic the Newsom has fallen in Democratic the polls from around 25% to 15%. He's polls from around 25% to 15%. He's polls from around 25% to 15%. He's falling on polling market from like 33% falling on polling market from like 33% falling on polling market from like 33% to 22% to 22% to 22% or something. I think he was benefiting or something. I think he was benefiting or something. I think he was benefiting from some degree of name recognition. from some degree of name recognition. from some degree of name recognition. Whereas now Democrats see a candidate Whereas now Democrats see a candidate Whereas now Democrats see a candidate like Jon Ossoff in Georgia. like Jon Ossoff in Georgia. like Jon Ossoff in Georgia. Um another good-looking young guy, but Um another good-looking young guy, but Um another good-looking young guy, but like actually has a credential which like actually has a credential which like actually has a credential which Newsom will never have of having won an Newsom will never have of having won an Newsom will never have of having won an election in a purple state. Um election in a purple state. Um election in a purple state. Um and being a younger, fresher face like and being a younger, fresher face like and being a younger, fresher face like we you say about Grant Plantner and we you say about Grant Plantner and we you say about Grant Plantner and Janet Mills in Maine. I think Mills in Janet Mills in Maine. I think Mills in Janet Mills in Maine. I think Mills in the absence might be the face of safer the absence might be the face of safer the absence might be the face of safer choice. I think it's good that Democrats choice. I think it's good that Democrats choice. I think it's good that Democrats are showing a bias toward younger are showing a bias toward younger are showing a bias toward younger candidates, right? Like that's a lot of candidates, right? Like that's a lot of candidates, right? Like that's a lot of what happened with Zoran too. You know, what happened with Zoran too. You know, what happened with Zoran too. You know, I wouldn't discount by the way someone I wouldn't discount by the way someone I wouldn't discount by the way someone like an AOC. I'm not sure if she'll run. like an AOC. I'm not sure if she'll run. like an AOC. I'm not sure if she'll run. Someone like Chuck Schumer might be very Someone like Chuck Schumer might be very Someone like Chuck Schumer might be very vulnerable in the 2028 primary for vulnerable in the 2028 primary for vulnerable in the 2028 primary for example. She has a lot of time to wait, example. She has a lot of time to wait, example. She has a lot of time to wait, but like I could see like I again, in but like I could see like I again, in but like I could see like I again, in New York. It's New York. So therefore New York. It's New York. So therefore New York. It's New York. So therefore you can't extrapolate too much from New you can't extrapolate too much from New you can't extrapolate too much from New York. However, people saying we are sick York. However, people saying we are sick York. However, people saying we are sick and tired of the Democratic and tired of the Democratic and tired of the Democratic establishment. I'll take a more centrist establishment. I'll take a more centrist establishment. I'll take a more centrist version or more left-wing version, but version or more left-wing version, but version or more left-wing version, but not the same. I think ultimately Newsom not the same. I think ultimately Newsom not the same. I think ultimately Newsom has like a a hard argument to make. He's has like a a hard argument to make. He's has like a a hard argument to make. He's arguing for continuity arguing for continuity arguing for continuity with Kamala Harris and Joe Biden. He's with Kamala Harris and Joe Biden. He's with Kamala Harris and Joe Biden. He's embracing Joe Biden when that strategy embracing Joe Biden when that strategy embracing Joe Biden when that strategy has failed electorally. I would argue in has failed electorally. I would argue in has failed electorally. I would argue in California governance-wise as well. It California governance-wise as well. It California governance-wise as well. It to me it's like a I think Newsom is to me it's like a I think Newsom is to me it's like a I think Newsom is actually actually actually in a pretty defensive position. And in a pretty defensive position. And in a pretty defensive position. And that's why you see him that's why you see him that's why you see him having Hunter Biden or something on his having Hunter Biden or something on his having Hunter Biden or something on his podcast. podcast. podcast. >> yeah, yeah. >> yeah, yeah. >> yeah, yeah. And AOC is now 36 years old so she And AOC is now 36 years old so she And AOC is now 36 years old so she qualifies. qualifies. qualifies. You're You're saying it's not a zero You're You're saying it's not a zero You're You're saying it's not a zero chance that she could become the chance that she could become the chance that she could become the equivalent of Trump, the outsider, the equivalent of Trump, the outsider, the equivalent of Trump, the outsider, the burn it down, the I'm sick and tired burn it down, the I'm sick and tired burn it down, the I'm sick and tired vote? vote? vote? >> She's my bet. Yeah. >> She's my bet. Yeah. >> She's my bet. Yeah. >> Yes, she's your bet. Okay, what do you >> Yes, she's your bet. Okay, what do you >> Yes, she's your bet. Okay, what do you think, Nate? Let's talk about AOC. She think, Nate? Let's talk about AOC. She think, Nate? Let's talk about AOC. She got that possibility with her charisma? got that possibility with her charisma? got that possibility with her charisma? >> We've seen in states like Maine, we may >> We've seen in states like Maine, we may >> We've seen in states like Maine, we may see this in Michigan as well, where see this in Michigan as well, where see this in Michigan as well, where yeah, I mean, um yeah, I mean, um yeah, I mean, um look, for many years in the Republican look, for many years in the Republican look, for many years in the Republican primary, the notion was that the primary, the notion was that the primary, the notion was that the establishment always won out. That you'd establishment always won out. That you'd establishment always won out. That you'd have like the Rick Santorums or Sarah have like the Rick Santorums or Sarah have like the Rick Santorums or Sarah Palins or Herman Cains or whatever Palins or Herman Cains or whatever Palins or Herman Cains or whatever else's who would get 40% of the vote, else's who would get 40% of the vote, else's who would get 40% of the vote, but the same country club establishment but the same country club establishment but the same country club establishment types talked about at the top of the types talked about at the top of the types talked about at the top of the show would prevail at the end of the show would prevail at the end of the show would prevail at the end of the day. And then it doesn't take that much day. And then it doesn't take that much day. And then it doesn't take that much of of of perpetually growing dissatisfaction perpetually growing dissatisfaction perpetually growing dissatisfaction or generational turmoil. You like young or generational turmoil. You like young or generational turmoil. You like young people in general like don't understand people in general like don't understand people in general like don't understand like why the would I care about like a like why the would I care about like a like why the would I care about like a party brand anyway? Like the Democratic party brand anyway? Like the Democratic party brand anyway? Like the Democratic Party brand is like a a lame brand as Party brand is like a a lame brand as Party brand is like a a lame brand as certainly the GOP is. Um and so if certainly the GOP is. Um and so if certainly the GOP is. Um and so if you're an avatar for that brand, then you're an avatar for that brand, then you're an avatar for that brand, then like, you know, I look, I think the best like, you know, I look, I think the best like, you know, I look, I think the best candidates, even Obama candidates, even Obama candidates, even Obama in 2008, obviously not even Obama, Obama in 2008, obviously not even Obama, Obama in 2008, obviously not even Obama, Obama was a highly effective, one of the, you was a highly effective, one of the, you was a highly effective, one of the, you know, generationally charismatic know, generationally charismatic know, generationally charismatic candidate, but even he candidate, but even he candidate, but even he combined on the one hand positioning to combined on the one hand positioning to combined on the one hand positioning to the left of Clinton on issues like Iraq, the left of Clinton on issues like Iraq, the left of Clinton on issues like Iraq, on the other hand, he had a whole on the other hand, he had a whole on the other hand, he had a whole whatever, we have gay sisters in blue whatever, we have gay sisters in blue whatever, we have gay sisters in blue states, red states, and we play little states, red states, and we play little states, red states, and we play little league in the blue states, and like that league in the blue states, and like that league in the blue states, and like that whole like post-partisan rhetoric. I whole like post-partisan rhetoric. I whole like post-partisan rhetoric. I think the most effective candidates can think the most effective candidates can think the most effective candidates can exactly what he is. He has made some exactly what he is. He has made some exactly what he is. He has made some efforts. I mean, he had efforts. I mean, he had efforts. I mean, he had Charlie Kirk on his podcast, I think it Charlie Kirk on his podcast, I think it Charlie Kirk on his podcast, I think it was last year, right? He has tried to was last year, right? He has tried to was last year, right? He has tried to moderate, I mean, he's against the moderate, I mean, he's against the moderate, I mean, he's against the billionaire billionaire billionaire tax. Um he's tried to moderate on some tax. Um he's tried to moderate on some tax. Um he's tried to moderate on some of the culture war issues, like of the culture war issues, like of the culture war issues, like nominated a institutional candidate from nominated a institutional candidate from nominated a institutional candidate from California. She didn't come that far California. She didn't come that far California. She didn't come that far from winning, but she lost all the swing from winning, but she lost all the swing from winning, but she lost all the swing states by by, you know, two to five states by by, you know, two to five states by by, you know, two to five points. And like I don't points. And like I don't points. And like I don't believe at the end of the day Democrats believe at the end of the day Democrats believe at the end of the day Democrats would be persuaded that like, oh, just would be persuaded that like, oh, just would be persuaded that like, oh, just cuz you're white [clears throat] cuz you're white [clears throat] cuz you're white [clears throat] and you have different anatomy, like and you have different anatomy, like and you have different anatomy, like that that that will be the one that that that that will be the one that that that that will be the one that every Democrat was terrified by in 2024. every Democrat was terrified by in 2024. every Democrat was terrified by in 2024. >> All right. An hour with our guy, Nate >> All right. An hour with our guy, Nate >> All right. An hour with our guy, Nate Silver. Silver. Silver. Let us know what you think in the Let us know what you think in the Let us know what you think in the comments. We will have you back on when comments. We will have you back on when comments. We will have you back on when we do our live election coverage for we do our live election coverage for we do our live election coverage for sure if you're available and the sure if you're available and the sure if you're available and the audience always loves when you're on. audience always loves when you're on. audience always loves when you're on. I don't think he's coming on all night. I don't think he's coming on all night. I don't think he's coming on all night. >> [laughter] >> [laughter] >> [laughter] >> He's a fan of the pod. He's a fan of all >> He's a fan of the pod. He's a fan of all >> He's a fan of the pod. He's a fan of all in. in. in. He's part of the family. I'll come in He's part of the family. I'll come in He's part of the family. I'll come in the next day. Whatever. Whenever you're the next day. Whatever. Whenever you're the next day. Whatever. Whenever you're not securing the bag to secure more not securing the bag to secure more not securing the bag to secure more Knicks ticket for our repeat next year. Knicks ticket for our repeat next year. Knicks ticket for our repeat next year. Everybody go right now if you hear my Everybody go right now if you hear my Everybody go right now if you hear my voice to the Silver Bullet and pop out a voice to the Silver Bullet and pop out a voice to the Silver Bullet and pop out a hundy and subscribe. You're going to hundy and subscribe. You're going to hundy and subscribe. You're going to >> 95 bucks Jason. >> 95 bucks Jason. >> 95 bucks Jason. >> That's what I thought. Rounded up to a >> That's what I thought. Rounded up to a >> That's what I thought. Rounded up to a hundy but you can listen I know that you hundy but you can listen I know that you hundy but you can listen I know that you probably done the metrics 94.97 probably done the metrics 94.97 probably done the metrics 94.97 [laughter] [laughter] [laughter] is the right number. is the right number. is the right number. >> the guy at the door. Five bucks for the >> the guy at the door. Five bucks for the >> the guy at the door. Five bucks for the guy at the door. guy at the door. guy at the door. >> Whatever. I would [laughter] gamble a >> Whatever. I would [laughter] gamble a >> Whatever. I would [laughter] gamble a little bit off the top. It's all good little bit off the top. It's all good little bit off the top. It's all good and yeah everybody go to Polly Market and yeah everybody go to Polly Market and yeah everybody go to Polly Market place some bets our favorite partner place some bets our favorite partner place some bets our favorite partner Nate's favorite partner and yeah we'll Nate's favorite partner and yeah we'll Nate's favorite partner and yeah we'll see you all next time on the All In see you all next time on the All In see you all next time on the All In interview show. interview show. interview show. >> Thanks Jason. >> Thanks Jason. >> Thanks Jason. >> Great job Nate. You rocked it. That was >> Great job Nate. You rocked it. That was >> Great job Nate. You rocked it. That was awesome. awesome. awesome. >> I'm going all in. [music] [music] >> I'm going all in.