Is History Repeating Itself? Religion, War, and Democracy with Sam Harris & Simon Sebag Montefiore

Key Takeaway

Practice historical humility when reacting to alarming events: separate what you know from what you are predicting, and resist treating today’s institutions as inevitable. Montefiore’s account of empires, religious movements, and democracies emphasizes that stability depends on social solidarity and continued effort. Today, choose one civic or community commitment—learn the history behind a conflict, speak constructively with someone who disagrees, or support an institution you value—and treat it as maintenance, not a one-time act.

Episode Overview

Sam Harris speaks with historian Simon Sebag Montefiore about whether the postwar liberal order is giving way to a more unstable, multipolar world. They explore the fragility of liberal democracy, the role of social cohesion, and why Jerusalem’s layered religious history makes the Temple Mount uniquely capable of mobilizing global passions.

Full Transcript

Transcript of Is History Repeating Itself? Religion, War, and Democracy with Sam Harris & Simon Sebag Montefiore from Making Sense with Sam Harris. Auto-generated from episode audio; may contain minor errors.

I'm here with Simon Seebeg Montefiore . Simon, thank you very much for joining me. It's great to finally be with you. Yes. Yes. We have been talking together on WhatsApp for some time . We won't name the rest of you, but it's great to finally meet you , even if it's from a distance . You have written many wonderful, great history books . I'm currently reading both at the same time , and you've written many more, but the two I'm reading are ' Stalin: The Court of the Red Tsar' and ' Jerusalem: The Biography', both of which together provide an excellent perspective for understanding current situations.

By speaking to you as a historian , I want to understand the concerns I have about the current and future situation ; Given your expertise in both Russian history and Middle Eastern history , I think you are the right person for that . Before we get into the discussion , could you briefly tell us about your educational background? What topics do you focus on as a historian? As for my background , I studied history at Cambridge University. After that, strangely enough, I went into banking, but that was a disastrous chapter in my life.

Then, in the early 90s, I went there when the Soviet Union was falling apart. That is the real training ground for me. That was a very amazing and interesting place to watch an empire collapse. I think that watching an empire collapse before a young historian's eyes is a greater training than books . That was a very interesting time. With that experience, I began writing about Russia ; I started writing about Catherine the Great and Potemkin while I was still at university . Yes. That subject has now taken on great importance , because apart from their colorful personal lives, brilliant letters, and the Russian Enlightenment ...they were also empire builders; They conquered southern Ukraine and Crimea and built cities like Odessa, Sevastopol, and Dnipro, where the war is taking place today .

It was through a strange favor from Vladimir Putin that I was given access to the Stalin archives , and I was one of the first people to work in those archives. And to be sure , starting work on Stalin gave me a huge boost. That's the book you're reading, Stalin, the Reds' cause. Yes. This is not a happy thing at all. It's unbelievable how terrible history can become. While some may wish we didn't live in some of the periods of history you wrote about , our present seems to have gradually entered the stream of history.

I remember the first time in my life when I suddenly realized, "Okay, this is history, with all the dangers that come with it." That happened right after 9/11. I thought of what I thought was normal life as a post-historical life, no matter how naive it might be. I thought that anything could happen at any time after 9/11 , that this was what the unlucky ones would face throughout history . And I never seem to get rid of that thought . But, we try to sleep , but it seems increasingly like we cannot escape the flow of history .

We will move into a discussion about the Middle East and the rise of anti-Semitism. We will also talk about the war in Ukraine, and as you know , Russia has a role in the chaos on both sides of the world. Sure. True. My first question is, as a historian , do you always keep the historian's perspective in mind when you read a newspaper ? Or do we go to sleep thinking we are living in a time of normalcy? My historian's vision will always be there , it's impossible at the moment.

It's really hard to sleep. And there is a lot of commotion. But, even seen in the worst way, it's still very interesting . It is worth remembering the famous saying of Lenin, one of the greatest power analysts in history, that nothing happens for years, but what should have happened in years happens in a few weeks or days . And of course, one always remembers, right before the Russian Revolution, he said to his wife Krupskaya, 'I don't think there will be a revolution in my lifetime .' Then, when he first heard the news that the Tsar had fallen, he asked, "Is this true?" They asked.

'Is this true or is this some kind of hoax?' That. So, no one knows what's going to happen. Even the most brilliant analysts and historians fail miserably at predicting the future, as you know, as evidenced by the works of 'The End of History' and many other brilliant historians. But, I think it's very important right now to understand how special, how extraordinary, that time in which we lived and grew up was . It didn't make much sense to us when we were in that period , but if you look at 45, 48 , 50, up to 9/11 or the election of Donald Trump, or the Russia- Ukraine war, up to October 7 , how unique was that period?

There, all American presidents had a similar view of the world , and despite minor differences, they had an internationalist view of the world . And while Soviet leaders believed in global revolution , they were very conservative in their goal of changing the world . People there respected the United Nations, which was the forum for a supra-national system called international law, because people believed in its existence . And in most democratic countries, various views, such as anti-Semitism, are banned . There have been great liberal reforms, such as gay rights and other advances such as the birth control pill and the right to abortion .

All of this was achieved during a period of great liberal reform , which I call by the same name in my world history, because it was so revolutionary . But, we took it easy. And, all of this needs to be achieved again , now that it's all in jeopardy . And it's hard to say there's anything else like that unique period, you know? Maybe the Roman Empire, when the Roman Empire faced the Persians and the Sasanians , there were kind of two polar powers that really kept a sort of peace , but in reality, it was a very brutal world, and the rest of the world was not included in those two powers .

It was originally limited to the Mediterranean and Near East regions. Yes. So, the end of this world is like a return to a state with many forces as it always was in the past. You could say that 70 years of peace are coming to an end , you saw the end of it, which began with 9/11, in which there was something like a game of chess between two great powers. And 25 years of American dominance, like a kind of solitaire game , and now suddenly interestingly like a multiplayer game, where small powers are pursuing their own interests in ways we can't understand .

And the important thing about this is the triumph of liberal democracy, which is extraordinary, we forget that until 1991 half of Europe was under dictatorship. Western Europe also remained under dictatorships until 1974-75. So, again, we forget that it's all a perception. We forget how recently all of this happened. Yes. Do you think that the breakdown of the liberal world order as we now know it has reached a point of no return, that America will retreat , that multilateralism will become less effective, and that we are going to see more chaos around the world ?

Or do you think we will bounce back from the brink of destruction and return to what we normally thought was normal in our lifetimes ? While we may not quite reach the level of Fukuyama , we can make a prediction that in the future liberal democracy, despite its many shortcomings , will succeed or become the expected norm worldwide, and that there will be enough power on that side to make totalitarianism seem abnormal and pathological. First of all, I don't think history ever repeats itself. It will never go back .

However, this does not mean that democracies, liberal democracies, cannot recover or succeed, but they need changes from within. In my opinion, America is still the greatest power in terms of military power, economy, and many other metrics , and American power still continues to be the most active force in the world. But, democracies are facing a huge crisis within themselves ; As the great 14th-century Arab North African historian Ibn Khaldun said, " Great empires do not fall from military or economic defeats; they fall from psychological defeats ." This is a very interesting topic; The loss of ' Asabiyya', he said, means the lack of unity, solidarity and values ​​that drive society towards a goal.

This brings to mind things written by Francis Fukuyama; Democracies are prevented from acting with confidence by a population that wants higher qualifications and more rights . If America regains its self-confidence , it has enormous power to change things . But we should be under no illusions: the success of liberal democracies is not simply that they are good places to live . The main reason for that is that they are successful. When I wrote world history, I was asked, " Why are there so many wars in your history ?" Many people asked me that.

"It's full of violence," they said. I said, "It's true, everything speeds up and intensifies when there are wars." Innovations, intelligence, all of this happens during war. We are seeing the same thing now through the drone wars taking place in the Middle East and Ukraine . That's another thing we can talk about , but the real point is that the reason why liberal democracy was so successful , and even if it wasn't liberal democracy, everyone wanted a system like it , was because of the victory in World War II in '45.

I mean, it started in 1918 , but then again in 1945, it was actually a kind of Soviet victory, but it was widely considered to be an American victory, a victory of American power . And if you look at all the new countries that were formed after 1945 , in the 60s , they all resemble America. Today, China and Russia also have presidencies and legislatures ; That is, they are all American- based, because America set this standard . Even though they weren't democracies, certainly not liberal democracies, everyone wanted to look like America.

And many of the countries we thought were democracies may not be as democratic as we thought , for example, if we look at the countries that were formed in Africa and are now falling apart . That's another thing to discuss later, perhaps. It is a great honor for America that many countries have become liberal democracies. This is a great tribute to America's success in many important and influential wars . And we must be clear that these are wars that have achieved clear victories. It is very difficult to achieve something like this at present .

Yes, so I think we can focus our concerns through the center, which is the city of Jerusalem . Yes. When we look at what has torn our world apart in the past and what it could do in the future, it makes a lot of sense, if not everything, to consider the obsession that three religions have for that one city. I remember reading a book called 'The End of Days' by Gershom Gorenberg about 20 years ago, and as a historian this may be something you know , but it was the first time I realized that World War II could be caused by the destruction of a single building, such as the Al-Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount.

That is, the level of religious fanaticism that Muslims, Christians, and Jews around the world have towards that one place . This can be seen as a sacred symbol, meaning it is an important matter that is not up for discussion, right? That is, it is non-transferable; Whatever you give to the 2 billion Muslims of the world in exchange for that one building, it will not seem enough . So too is the millennial expectation of evangelical Christians, and perhaps more broadly of all Christians , who expect the Messiah to return.

You know that once the Temple is rebuilt by the Jews, the Orthodox Jews will also join them in this matter. You talk about this history in detail in your book " Jerusalem," so let's talk about it . Because from a secular perspective, it is astonishing to realize that the world is poised to explode with the millennial superstitions of billions of people focused on a single building , including the absurd detail of sacrificing a perfect red cow to consecrate the equipment needed to rebuild the temple .

What is your opinion of the Temple Mount, Simon? The Temple Mount is a highly revered site. This is a complex, a field. It was a platform built by Herod the Great, and was designed during his reign . It took a long time during his reign to build it. Herod the Great designed the Temple Mount we see today on very rough structures. This venue hasn't changed much since he built it. He was made king of Judea by Antony and Octavius ​​in 40 BC. The future Augustus told him to travel throughout Rome and conquer Jerusalem and return, saying that they would provide the army needed for that.

It was captured by the Parthians . That is the origin of the place we are looking at now , on which there are two beautiful Islamic shrines . What you said is literally true. That is, the expectations of all fundamentalist believers in the three Abrahamic religions are centered on that place . And many of them believe that outside the Golden Gate, this magnificent structure on the eastern wall, probably built by Heraclius, on the eastern side during the Byzantine period, is the same place where the flood occurred.

And you're absolutely right, I mean, when I was writing about Jerusalem , I kind of realized, you know, a lot of things could go right . This can be shared. A peace process could take place here , making it a kind of holy basin, as it is called by international and American peacemakers, a kind of Vatican- like place for the three religions . But if something goes wrong there, it could trigger a catastrophe, a Holocaust , World War III , which would affect everyone , because everyone has a stake in the future of that place .

And that's why this is an extraordinary thing. And one of the understandings we have today is that when we go back over the years to our worldview , up until 9/11, we knew that there were religious people. There are many evangelicals in America . And in West Africa there are Islamic fundamentalists and so on . There are also Jewish religious extremists . But we felt that along with liberal democracy, a kind of secularism was spreading around the world and that we were beyond that kind of religiousness .

Yes, because that turns out to be completely false, and in fact, you know, religious people have a kind of power and vision that secularists don't have, but secularists are afraid of it and are very affected by it . That's why we see it in the sides that different people are taking right now in the Middle East . However, it is no coincidence that the place is venerated by three religions , for each religion gave rise to another and each took its sacredness, appropriated it, stole it, reinvented it, and transformed it by subsequent successors.

And each successor changed those stories slightly , reworking them to add to the legacy and antiquity necessary for legitimacy in the religion . And that's why when you look at texts like the Bible and the Quran, some texts seem like very clear writings . Some of this is history we can verify, while others are obscure or strangely detailed, like the famous 'Red Heifer' in Jerusalem . The key point is that these texts are a composite, like an ancient library, stacked on top of each other. The most sacred thing is a revelation built on an already existing ancient story, an already existing ancient holiness.

And this sense of sacredness was increased many times over by the destruction of those places . So the two most famous of the destructions of Jerusalem were : those by Nebuchadnezzar in 586 and those by Titus in 70 AD . But there were many, many devastating events there . But especially so mythical and complete are they that the ruins become more sacred than the buildings they replace , and they are sanctified by the antiquity, authority, and legitimacy of what came before . So, Jerusalem becoming the holy city is a coincidence, it could have been many other different places .

A religious person wouldn't say this, but from a historical perspective, from a geostrategic perspective , there is no reason why Jerusalem should have become such an important place . It is not a port. It's not even in a commercial way . It was a small hill in the hot Judean Mountains, later called Judea, in Canaan . But after the Jews made it their holy city, they did something decisive. It's not just about making it a holy place or building a temple, but also about making it a place of worship.

That is its specialty. Jerusalem has been given a life story, which is the Bible. That biography allowed other people to learn about it , read it, and translate it . It has become known to later generations as well . So, contrary to what you read on Twitter or X these days , the early Christians were actually Jews. Actually, I don't want to discuss that with you , but I'm always amazed at how theological versions of anti-Semitism lead to a reductio absurdum . When you realize that Jesus, Mary, and all of Jesus' disciples were Jews, lived like Jews, acted like Jews , and considered themselves Jews ...the surprising thing is, how can you create anti-Semitism that leads to genocide from those ancient heritage texts?

In a Christian context, this may be less surprising than in a Muslim context, but let's talk more broadly about the origins of this fusion of religious beliefs in the Holy Land . So another thing that's surprising to learn in your book is that the city of Jerusalem was ignored or completely abandoned at various times in history . That means it has basically become a small village of ruins. But let's talk about the origins , because I want to take you towards an analysis of what happened after October 7, about settler colonialism and the illegality of Jewish claims to that land, as well as the views around the world that Jews and the state of Israel are some kind of intruders and colonial remnants .

So, knowing that we'll get there , let's talk a little bit about the history of the Jews in that region and how Christianity and Islam emerged from that region . The word 'Jew', meaning Jews, comes from 'Judean' . The Judeans were one of the Levantine peoples who originated in Canaan. They ruled over a small territorial kingdom around Jerusalem for about a thousand years, from about 1000 BC until the beginning of the new era. If you are a believing Jew, you will say that these are the ones who came out of Egypt in the Passover story.

And you believe that they are God's chosen people . If you are secular and look at history, they are said to be one of the tribes that descended from the Levantine Canaanite people who inhabited the area. They created a kingdom called Israel in the north and a kingdom ruled by the House of David in the south , as is evident on the Tel Dan Stele. So we know that there was a line of David, that David and his descendants ruled from Jerusalem, and that they built a temple there.

It is impossible to prove exactly when it was built, but it was built and that was the first temple. It was built on what is now the Temple Mount in Jerusalem, known as Mount Moriah . And there was a kingdom in the north , which was the kingdom of Israel. They were very small kingdoms that flourished at a time when the great powers in the region, such as Egypt, Assyria, and Babylon, were in crisis . When those great empires rose again and regained power , they attacked and conquered these kingdoms.

The people of Israel were taken captive to Babylon . Jerusalem was destroyed in 586 BC, but the Jewish people remained there. Alexander the Great arrived there in the 320s BC. His descendants, the Seleucids and Assyrians, ruled Syria and Egypt, and fought for control of Judea and Jerusalem for about a hundred years. 63. Around 164 they revolted against the Assyrians and created a new kingdom called the Maccabean Kingdom or Hasmonean Kingdom. Is n't that before Christ? Yes. It is celebrated by the Jews during the festival of Hanukkah and they ruled for about a hundred years.

They were later separated due to civil war. Some compare the fragmentation of the kingdom at that time to Israel today. Then the Romans, led by the great Roman warlord Pompey the Great, arrived in about 63 BC. His descendants then handed Judea over to Herod the Great. He is an interesting person because his mother is Arab. She was Nabataean, meaning she was from an Arab kingdom located in what is now Jordan and northern Saudi Arabia . His father was an Idumean, that is, an Edomite, who had recently converted to Judaism.

That's why he's an interesting person who claims to be half Arab, half Jewish. He created a dynasty that ruled the Roman- held Near East for five generations . In 66 AD, a major revolt against the Romans took place during the reign of Nero. The main reason for this was Nero's inability to rule the empire. And his charming personality. And the charismatic personality, which is, in general, which is, the fearsome nature and, which is, and and , you know, he's a ... Nero is an interesting guy because he's one of those politicians who merged entertainment and politics, which we should be aware of today, and, which is, he used the power of entertainment and the power of politics to promote himself .

But that aside, there was a Jewish uprising there , led by what we now call extremist Jewish fundamentalists . And many of the people of Judea supported the Romans. And in fact, Herod's family, and even the historian Josephus, you know, ultimately supported the Romans, because they thought the Roman lifestyle was better than life in the Jewish state . These are the Maccabees. They...these are not the Maccabees. These, that is, these were different factions and gangs, who fought fiercely with each other ; And finally, they were besieged by Titus Caesar, son of Emperor Vespasian , who, emerging from the civil war in the year 68, the year of the three emperors, attacked Jerusalem and completely destroyed it for the second time.

Many Jews then went into exile, but many Jews stayed behind. And in the 130s , another emperor, Hadrian, decided to build a Roman temple on the ruins of the Jewish temple in Jerusalem, the already destroyed Second Temple . And this led to a second massive Jewish revolt under the leadership of Simon Bar Kokhba, and it reached a point where everyone agrees that this was again a genocidal war against the people of Judea. They were expelled from Jerusalem . Jerusalem was renamed Aelia Capitolina and it remained under that name for 300 years .

But the Jews or Judeans always revered it, prayed around its ruins , and for the first time spread throughout the Mediterranean region. Therefore, for example, the number of Jewish slaves in Rome increased dramatically. It may seem strange to think of Jews as slaves, but after these wars, most of the slaves in the Roman Empire were Judeans . And from this was born a new Jewish religion , one that was always connected to Jerusalem , looking towards it , but considered the Torah to be a kind of portable Jerusalem, and always carried it with them .

Mm and that religion has completely changed from the foundation. Before that, the Jewish religion was based on sacrifices to God on the Temple Mount . Since they no longer had a temple, and no way to go to the Temple Mount , a new kind of religion developed in which Jews prayed in synagogues; They lived in Spain, Italy, Cyprus, and North Africa. It was a new era and at the same time Christianity separated from Judaism. Judaism...Jesus, Joseph, Mary, and their family were Jews. They were from Judea , but they were called Nazarenes because they came from Galilee.

And in the early stages of the Christian story, they were actually a Jewish tribe . They were praying . They were followers of James, one of Jesus' brothers or relatives . They prayed in the temple like other Jews . It was only after the destruction of the temple in 70 AD that many felt that God had withdrawn his blessings from the Jews. The defeat in the war was decisive in history and many decided to embrace the new revelation of Christianity . Certainly one reason for its success was the teaching of Christianity to non-Jews and the full invitation of non-Jews to Christianity.

Moreover, it was also a rebellion against the system of slavery in the Roman Empire . Also, there is a new concept that if you behave well in this life , you will go to heaven in the next life . So salvation is a promise, and it has new things that have affected us to this day , especially with the conversion of Constantine in the 4th century . The conversion of Constantine, ruler of the entire Roman Empire, to Christianity was a defining moment in world history. It associated Christianity with power, kingdom, empire, and Jesus with war and victory .

After 300 years, the message of Prophet Muhammad came to light in Arabia . He claimed to speak as God's messenger. He has a good understanding of both the Christian and Jewish religions . Whether he read it or heard it, he certainly traveled with his family of merchants to Syria, Judea, and Palestine , and he received these stories as prophetic . He received Moses and David . He received Mary. He accepted all of them, and even Jesus, as prophets in his new, third, and final message .

And one of the reasons for Muhammad's success was that he was accompanied by the fall of the Roman Empire at a time when it seemed like a global catastrophe . After his death in 632 . But at the beginning of that century, the Persians, the Sasanian Persians, attacked the Eastern Roman Empire, defeated it, occupied Egypt, Jerusalem, and fought all the way to Istanbul , and at that time the world seemed to be changing extraordinarily. No one knows what's going on. And during that period, two great powers, the Sasanian Persian shahs and the emperors of Constantinople, provided financial support to the Arab kingdoms that fought as their border agents in the Middle East.

And they stopped paying pensions to these local kings, that is, to the Arab kings . So, how these obscure Arabs were able to conquer so much of the world has always been a big mystery . Part of the reason for that may be religious fervor, part of the reason military prowess, part of the reason military capability, centrality in belief, and part of the reason may be the availability of experienced warriors trained by both superpowers. However, Muhammad, like Jesus Christ, was not just the founder of a religion , but also a statesman and commander who created a new society and a new state .

And his descendants sent their armies into the world , a world that was already completely unstable. And it seems that nothing is known for sure about that early period . It was a very confusing time, but they seem to have very wisely allowed all monotheists to join this religion, even though the rules of this religion were vague and evolving at the time . As for Jerusalem, there is clear evidence that when they captured Jerusalem , it was handed over to them by the Christian bishop without any war , and that they were shown tolerance in return .

Second, as soon as they arrived there, they went up the Temple Mount, which was left empty as a sign of Christian rejection of the Jews. They built an early mosque there on the site of Al- Aqsa , as well as the Dome of the Rock in 691, precisely on the site of the Jewish Temple . But it is believed that Christians and Jews were also allowed to pray in that early mosque and the Dome of the Rock . And naturally, the rules got stricter after that .

This happened when that religion became the official faith of the great Arab Empire . However, Jews remained in the area throughout that period. They used to pray around the walls , and when the Muslims came they allowed the Jews to return and live there ; As they accepted the Islamic religion and the supremacy of the Islamic state and became ' dhimmis' , that became the basis for Jews to live there for many centuries to come. How do you understand the origins of anti-Semitism? The simplest religious reason for this is to continue uninterrupted.