Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare

All right, everybody. Welcome back to All right, everybody. Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. the number one podcast in the world. the number one podcast in the world. Freeberg's out saving the world, Freeberg's out saving the world, Freeberg's out saving the world, creating new potatoes or I don't know, creating new potatoes or I don't know, creating new potatoes or I don't know, quinoa, maybe some Brussels sprouts. I'm quinoa, maybe some Brussels sprouts. I'm quinoa, maybe some Brussels sprouts. I'm not sure what he's working on at this not sure what he's working on at this not sure what he's working on at this point. In his place, his personal point. In his place, his personal point. In his place, his personal favorite bestie. He always says that favorite bestie. He always says that favorite bestie. He always says that when I'm not here, I want Brad Gersonner when I'm not here, I want Brad Gersonner when I'm not here, I want Brad Gersonner in the seat. Welcome back. We haven't in the seat. Welcome back. We haven't in the seat. Welcome back. We haven't seen you on the pod since your shout out seen you on the pod since your shout out seen you on the pod since your shout out at the State of the Union. Take us at the State of the Union. Take us at the State of the Union. Take us behind the scenes for a brief moment behind the scenes for a brief moment behind the scenes for a brief moment here, Brad, of what it's like to get a here, Brad, of what it's like to get a here, Brad, of what it's like to get a shout out from POTUS at the state of Did shout out from POTUS at the state of Did shout out from POTUS at the state of Did you know it was coming? Did you you know it was coming? Did you you know it was coming? Did you choreograph to this thing? Did you Did choreograph to this thing? Did you Did choreograph to this thing? Did you Did you choreograph that or was that more you choreograph that or was that more you choreograph that or was that more spontaneous? spontaneous? spontaneous? >> I honestly had no idea it was coming. >> I honestly had no idea it was coming. >> I honestly had no idea it was coming. >> And in fact, I I found out after the >> And in fact, I I found out after the >> And in fact, I I found out after the fact that it wasn't in the speech and fact that it wasn't in the speech and fact that it wasn't in the speech and the president added it to the speech. the president added it to the speech. the president added it to the speech. So, I don't even think it was, you know, So, I don't even think it was, you know, So, I don't even think it was, you know, few days ago few days before going to few days ago few days before going to few days ago few days before going to happen. But we got an invite to the happen. But we got an invite to the happen. But we got an invite to the State of the Union and you know, listen, State of the Union and you know, listen, State of the Union and you know, listen, it's an institution. And this has it's an institution. And this has it's an institution. And this has happened every year for 250 years in the happened every year for 250 years in the happened every year for 250 years in the country. I've never been. I thought I country. I've never been. I thought I country. I've never been. I thought I did know he was going to talk about did know he was going to talk about did know he was going to talk about Trump accounts. So I figured if I'm ever Trump accounts. So I figured if I'm ever Trump accounts. So I figured if I'm ever going to go, that's the time to go. And going to go, that's the time to go. And going to go, that's the time to go. And I have to say, you know, I'm just a I have to say, you know, I'm just a I have to say, you know, I'm just a sucker for Democratic institutions and sucker for Democratic institutions and sucker for Democratic institutions and Democratic traditions. It it was an Democratic traditions. It it was an Democratic traditions. It it was an extraordinary night. Set aside, you extraordinary night. Set aside, you extraordinary night. Set aside, you know, the headlines about what Democrats know, the headlines about what Democrats know, the headlines about what Democrats did or Republicans did. Just the whether did or Republicans did. Just the whether did or Republicans did. Just the whether it's a Democrat president or Republican it's a Democrat president or Republican it's a Democrat president or Republican president that this happens every year. president that this happens every year. president that this happens every year. You have to go report on the State of You have to go report on the State of You have to go report on the State of the Union. So it was a it was a special the Union. So it was a it was a special the Union. So it was a it was a special night. did dinner ahead of time. We're night. did dinner ahead of time. We're night. did dinner ahead of time. We're in the chamber. The chamber, as you all in the chamber. The chamber, as you all in the chamber. The chamber, as you all know, is very small. And so, you know, know, is very small. And so, you know, know, is very small. And so, you know, just to your right was the first family just to your right was the first family just to your right was the first family and and Jared and Ivanka. and and Jared and Ivanka. and and Jared and Ivanka. And so, you know, we were there as to And so, you know, we were there as to And so, you know, we were there as to observe like everybody else. And wow, it observe like everybody else. And wow, it observe like everybody else. And wow, it was it was quite a moment. And was it was quite a moment. And was it was quite a moment. And >> I want to just say you did a great job >> I want to just say you did a great job >> I want to just say you did a great job because when you sent your heart out to because when you sent your heart out to because when you sent your heart out to all of America, all of America, all of America, >> I took it. I took it. I took it. I was >> I took it. I took it. I took it. I was >> I took it. I took it. I took it. I was like it out, like it out, like it out, >> but you kept it at the right angle. >> but you kept it at the right angle. >> but you kept it at the right angle. >> Right. Right. >> Right. Right. >> Right. Right. >> You had just gone up a little bit extra >> You had just gone up a little bit extra >> You had just gone up a little bit extra and out. >> Would have been no bueno. >> Would have been no bueno. >> Those would be some super racist Trump >> Those would be some super racist Trump >> Those would be some super racist Trump accounts. accounts. accounts. >> Keep your protractor and your ruler out >> Keep your protractor and your ruler out >> Keep your protractor and your ruler out when you send your heart out. Okay. when you send your heart out. Okay. when you send your heart out. Okay. >> One final thing on it, Jason. >> One final thing on it, Jason. >> One final thing on it, Jason. You know, we're signing up over a You know, we're signing up over a You know, we're signing up over a 100,000 kids a day to these Trump 100,000 kids a day to these Trump 100,000 kids a day to these Trump accounts. Fantastic. We have millions of accounts. Fantastic. We have millions of accounts. Fantastic. We have millions of kids who've already claimed their kids who've already claimed their kids who've already claimed their account. We have nearly 30 million kids account. We have nearly 30 million kids account. We have nearly 30 million kids in America who are eligible for at least in America who are eligible for at least in America who are eligible for at least $250 if they just go claim their $250 if they just go claim their $250 if they just go claim their account. These things are going to go account. These things are going to go account. These things are going to go live on July 4th. And what it really live on July 4th. And what it really live on July 4th. And what it really showed, I think, the country, it showed, I think, the country, it showed, I think, the country, it accelerated after the State of the Union accelerated after the State of the Union accelerated after the State of the Union because the president, you know, really because the president, you know, really because the president, you know, really believes this is a way to get everybody believes this is a way to get everybody believes this is a way to get everybody main street America into the game of main street America into the game of main street America into the game of capitalism and get them all directly capitalism and get them all directly capitalism and get them all directly owning, you know, the great companies in owning, you know, the great companies in owning, you know, the great companies in America. So, it meant a lot to me in America. So, it meant a lot to me in America. So, it meant a lot to me in that regard that it highlights the that regard that it highlights the that regard that it highlights the importance of the program. So, I was importance of the program. So, I was importance of the program. So, I was deeply grateful to the president for not deeply grateful to the president for not deeply grateful to the president for not only making sure this happens, but the only making sure this happens, but the only making sure this happens, but the shout out is pretty cool. shout out is pretty cool. shout out is pretty cool. >> Good for you, bro. >> Good for you, bro. >> Good for you, bro. >> I have um an interesting uh idea for >> I have um an interesting uh idea for >> I have um an interesting uh idea for you. I'm sure it's come up already, but you. I'm sure it's come up already, but you. I'm sure it's come up already, but with this whole discussion of UBI, with this whole discussion of UBI, with this whole discussion of UBI, somebody said to me, "Oh, you know, I somebody said to me, "Oh, you know, I somebody said to me, "Oh, you know, I really like these Trump accounts your really like these Trump accounts your really like these Trump accounts your friends did the the Invest America friends did the the Invest America friends did the the Invest America because it's like the start of UBI." And because it's like the start of UBI." And because it's like the start of UBI." And I was like, "Well, that's not exactly I was like, "Well, that's not exactly I was like, "Well, that's not exactly the intention, but I get it." And with the intention, but I get it." And with the intention, but I get it." And with wealth disparity going on in the wealth disparity going on in the wealth disparity going on in the country, that has a lot of people country, that has a lot of people country, that has a lot of people concerned. What if there was a giving concerned. What if there was a giving concerned. What if there was a giving pledge around equities and people could pledge around equities and people could pledge around equities and people could opt into it? They don't have to, but if opt into it? They don't have to, but if opt into it? They don't have to, but if somebody like, I don't know, Larry and somebody like, I don't know, Larry and somebody like, I don't know, Larry and Sergey or Zuckerberg said, I want to Sergey or Zuckerberg said, I want to Sergey or Zuckerberg said, I want to pledge 5% of my shares to go into kids pledge 5% of my shares to go into kids pledge 5% of my shares to go into kids accounts over the next 20 years. What an accounts over the next 20 years. What an accounts over the next 20 years. What an amazing, beautiful thing that could be. amazing, beautiful thing that could be. amazing, beautiful thing that could be. And it would be incredibly material to And it would be incredibly material to And it would be incredibly material to get whatever it is, a tenth of a share, get whatever it is, a tenth of a share, get whatever it is, a tenth of a share, a hundredth of a share, a thousandth of a hundredth of a share, a thousandth of a hundredth of a share, a thousandth of a share of whatever company. Has that a share of whatever company. Has that a share of whatever company. Has that come up yet as an idea? I'm sure it's come up yet as an idea? I'm sure it's come up yet as an idea? I'm sure it's obvious, right? obvious, right? obvious, right? It's come up. Stay tuned. But yes, we're It's come up. Stay tuned. But yes, we're It's come up. Stay tuned. But yes, we're going to have some banger announcements going to have some banger announcements going to have some banger announcements as we head toward July 4th. as we head toward July 4th. as we head toward July 4th. >> All right, let's talk about the war in >> All right, let's talk about the war in >> All right, let's talk about the war in Iran. Obviously, there are much more Iran. Obviously, there are much more Iran. Obviously, there are much more important issues than financial ones. important issues than financial ones. important issues than financial ones. Life, death, the freedom of the people Life, death, the freedom of the people Life, death, the freedom of the people of Iran, but we're uniquely qualified, I of Iran, but we're uniquely qualified, I of Iran, but we're uniquely qualified, I think, to talk about the economic think, to talk about the economic think, to talk about the economic fallout, second order effects, first fallout, second order effects, first fallout, second order effects, first order effects. And there has been order effects. And there has been order effects. And there has been massive volatility over the last five massive volatility over the last five massive volatility over the last five trading days. Just talking about Brent trading days. Just talking about Brent trading days. Just talking about Brent crude oil and we'll we'll key the crude oil and we'll we'll key the crude oil and we'll we'll key the discussion off of that type of oil. It discussion off of that type of oil. It discussion off of that type of oil. It spiked to $84 on Friday. That was day spiked to $84 on Friday. That was day spiked to $84 on Friday. That was day seven of the war, 119 on Monday, day 10 seven of the war, 119 on Monday, day 10 seven of the war, 119 on Monday, day 10 dropped back down to 84. Jump backed up dropped back down to 84. Jump backed up dropped back down to 84. Jump backed up to 100 after three commercial ships were to 100 after three commercial ships were to 100 after three commercial ships were hit in the straight on Wednesday. Those hit in the straight on Wednesday. Those hit in the straight on Wednesday. Those ships, by the way, were not oil tankers. ships, by the way, were not oil tankers. ships, by the way, were not oil tankers. Uh they were carrying cargo. They were Uh they were carrying cargo. They were Uh they were carrying cargo. They were flagged as Thai Japanese and Marshall flagged as Thai Japanese and Marshall flagged as Thai Japanese and Marshall Islands. Brent crude currently at 99 Islands. Brent crude currently at 99 Islands. Brent crude currently at 99 when we're taping this. It'll be at when we're taping this. It'll be at when we're taping this. It'll be at something different by the time you something different by the time you something different by the time you listen to the pod, I'm sure. But it's uh listen to the pod, I'm sure. But it's uh listen to the pod, I'm sure. But it's uh quite a spike. And here's a second quite a spike. And here's a second quite a spike. And here's a second chart. This shows you the spikes over chart. This shows you the spikes over chart. This shows you the spikes over time. I was old enough to remember the time. I was old enough to remember the time. I was old enough to remember the oil shock of 1978. Uh we had to like get oil shock of 1978. Uh we had to like get oil shock of 1978. Uh we had to like get in line at the gas station based on your in line at the gas station based on your in line at the gas station based on your license plate number and uh you had to license plate number and uh you had to license plate number and uh you had to wait an hour or two to get gas. Gulf War wait an hour or two to get gas. Gulf War wait an hour or two to get gas. Gulf War obviously it hit $100 in 20 $26. obviously it hit $100 in 20 $26. obviously it hit $100 in 20 $26. 2008 we hit kind of a peak moment. $216 2008 we hit kind of a peak moment. $216 2008 we hit kind of a peak moment. $216 in today's dollars. That was the peak in today's dollars. That was the peak in today's dollars. That was the peak oil discussion. Demand from China went oil discussion. Demand from China went oil discussion. Demand from China went off the charts. When Russia invaded off the charts. When Russia invaded off the charts. When Russia invaded Ukraine, we hit 115, which would be 133 Ukraine, we hit 115, which would be 133 Ukraine, we hit 115, which would be 133 in today's dollars. So, this is uh not in today's dollars. So, this is uh not in today's dollars. So, this is uh not new, but it is significant. And breaking new, but it is significant. And breaking new, but it is significant. And breaking news today, Iran's new Supreme Leader news today, Iran's new Supreme Leader news today, Iran's new Supreme Leader Mosh Taba says he's keeping the straight Mosh Taba says he's keeping the straight Mosh Taba says he's keeping the straight closed as a tool to pressure the enemy. closed as a tool to pressure the enemy. closed as a tool to pressure the enemy. Wall Street Journal on Thursday quoted a Wall Street Journal on Thursday quoted a Wall Street Journal on Thursday quoted a senior fellow at the Middle East senior fellow at the Middle East senior fellow at the Middle East Institute saying that reopening the Institute saying that reopening the Institute saying that reopening the strait will require ground troops. Poly strait will require ground troops. Poly strait will require ground troops. Poly market 27% chance that US forces enter market 27% chance that US forces enter market 27% chance that US forces enter Iran by the end of March and 57% by the Iran by the end of March and 57% by the Iran by the end of March and 57% by the end of the year. So the sharps over at end of the year. So the sharps over at end of the year. So the sharps over at poly market believe we will have boots poly market believe we will have boots poly market believe we will have boots on the ground. Let me stop there. Brad, on the ground. Let me stop there. Brad, on the ground. Let me stop there. Brad, your thoughts on what happens when oil your thoughts on what happens when oil your thoughts on what happens when oil hits this kind of number and we have hits this kind of number and we have hits this kind of number and we have this uncertainty of, hey, this could this uncertainty of, hey, this could this uncertainty of, hey, this could last, you know, two more weeks or it last, you know, two more weeks or it last, you know, two more weeks or it could last 6 months, it could last a could last 6 months, it could last a could last 6 months, it could last a year. Nobody seems to know and how it year. Nobody seems to know and how it year. Nobody seems to know and how it resolves. We just had a really resolves. We just had a really resolves. We just had a really interesting talk with Graham Allison. interesting talk with Graham Allison. interesting talk with Graham Allison. Um, how it resolves is also a major Um, how it resolves is also a major Um, how it resolves is also a major unknown. Your thoughts? unknown. Your thoughts? unknown. Your thoughts? >> Right. So first is obviously there are >> Right. So first is obviously there are >> Right. So first is obviously there are huge direct costs as oil prices go up huge direct costs as oil prices go up huge direct costs as oil prices go up right oil is a component of a lot of right oil is a component of a lot of right oil is a component of a lot of consumer you know and enterprise consumer you know and enterprise consumer you know and enterprise products and it also hurts consumer products and it also hurts consumer products and it also hurts consumer confidence enterprise confidence Goldman confidence enterprise confidence Goldman confidence enterprise confidence Goldman Sachs is out today with some analysis Sachs is out today with some analysis Sachs is out today with some analysis where they updated kind of the economic where they updated kind of the economic where they updated kind of the economic knock-on effects right so they raised knock-on effects right so they raised knock-on effects right so they raised their PCE inflation forecast from 2.1 to their PCE inflation forecast from 2.1 to their PCE inflation forecast from 2.1 to 2.9 right for the year so that's a huge 2.9 right for the year so that's a huge 2.9 right for the year so that's a huge jump right in terms of their expected jump right in terms of their expected jump right in terms of their expected you know PC inflation core PCE which you know PC inflation core PCE which you know PC inflation core PCE which excludes oil, okay, is they forecasted excludes oil, okay, is they forecasted excludes oil, okay, is they forecasted up uh from 2.2 to 2.4. So they're saying up uh from 2.2 to 2.4. So they're saying up uh from 2.2 to 2.4. So they're saying even if you excluded the direct price of even if you excluded the direct price of even if you excluded the direct price of oil, the knock-on effects is going to oil, the knock-on effects is going to oil, the knock-on effects is going to cause a little more inflation. They cause a little more inflation. They cause a little more inflation. They lowered their GDP forecast by 30 basis lowered their GDP forecast by 30 basis lowered their GDP forecast by 30 basis points for the year. And they also points for the year. And they also points for the year. And they also expect higher unemployment as a result expect higher unemployment as a result expect higher unemployment as a result of this for the year. All of that is of this for the year. All of that is of this for the year. All of that is weighing on the sentiment of the market. weighing on the sentiment of the market. weighing on the sentiment of the market. Remember, just a few months ago, the S&P Remember, just a few months ago, the S&P Remember, just a few months ago, the S&P peaked at 24 times. Now we're at 21 peaked at 24 times. Now we're at 21 peaked at 24 times. Now we're at 21 times. But I think the market may be times. But I think the market may be times. But I think the market may be getting it a little bit wrong. Right? getting it a little bit wrong. Right? getting it a little bit wrong. Right? The Trump doctrine, you know, I tweeted The Trump doctrine, you know, I tweeted The Trump doctrine, you know, I tweeted about this last week. I think the Trump about this last week. I think the Trump about this last week. I think the Trump doctrine is far more pragmatic than the doctrine is far more pragmatic than the doctrine is far more pragmatic than the neocon doctrine. Right? I think we I neocon doctrine. Right? I think we I neocon doctrine. Right? I think we I think Trump has a very limited set of think Trump has a very limited set of think Trump has a very limited set of goals. He wants to destroy and degrade goals. He wants to destroy and degrade goals. He wants to destroy and degrade threats to America's national security threats to America's national security threats to America's national security interests. He doesn't want to spread interests. He doesn't want to spread interests. He doesn't want to spread democracy. So my suspicion is that these democracy. So my suspicion is that these democracy. So my suspicion is that these impacts are shorter duration, but right impacts are shorter duration, but right impacts are shorter duration, but right now the market's having a little bit of now the market's having a little bit of now the market's having a little bit of post-traumatic stress flashbacks to post-traumatic stress flashbacks to post-traumatic stress flashbacks to Afghanistan and Iraq and wondering if we Afghanistan and Iraq and wondering if we Afghanistan and Iraq and wondering if we might be wandering into a quagmire. might be wandering into a quagmire. might be wandering into a quagmire. >> All right. And just he may not um in >> All right. And just he may not um in >> All right. And just he may not um in terms of the doctrine, he has said he terms of the doctrine, he has said he terms of the doctrine, he has said he wants to see uh the people rise up wants to see uh the people rise up wants to see uh the people rise up there. So might be splitting hairs, but there. So might be splitting hairs, but there. So might be splitting hairs, but I think uh he might actually be for I think uh he might actually be for I think uh he might actually be for regime change. He says he wants the regime change. He says he wants the regime change. He says he wants the regime to change regime to change regime to change >> being equal. I don't think he minds if >> being equal. I don't think he minds if >> being equal. I don't think he minds if the people bring it to themselves. The the people bring it to themselves. The the people bring it to themselves. The question is whether the US is going to, question is whether the US is going to, question is whether the US is going to, you know, put boots on the ground and you know, put boots on the ground and you know, put boots on the ground and try to spread misonian democracy like try to spread misonian democracy like try to spread misonian democracy like like the Cheney doctrine was. And I like the Cheney doctrine was. And I like the Cheney doctrine was. And I think this is very different. think this is very different. think this is very different. >> Chimat, uh, your take on the economic >> Chimat, uh, your take on the economic >> Chimat, uh, your take on the economic impact and, you know, and any other uh, impact and, you know, and any other uh, impact and, you know, and any other uh, things you'd like to add about the war things you'd like to add about the war things you'd like to add about the war in Iran? in Iran? in Iran? I think the most important thing that I I think the most important thing that I I think the most important thing that I saw this week was I think President saw this week was I think President saw this week was I think President Trump was asked about the war and he Trump was asked about the war and he Trump was asked about the war and he said the war would be over very soon. said the war would be over very soon. said the war would be over very soon. What did the market do? The market What did the market do? The market What did the market do? The market literally took oil from 120 a barrel to literally took oil from 120 a barrel to literally took oil from 120 a barrel to 90 a barrel 90 a barrel 90 a barrel almost in you know a nancond. almost in you know a nancond. almost in you know a nancond. I think that that sort of tells you what I think that that sort of tells you what I think that that sort of tells you what everybody thinks. To the extent that the everybody thinks. To the extent that the everybody thinks. To the extent that the market really didn't believe it, oil market really didn't believe it, oil market really didn't believe it, oil would not have budged and if anything, would not have budged and if anything, would not have budged and if anything, it would have faded those comments and it would have faded those comments and it would have faded those comments and you probably would have seen oil stay at you probably would have seen oil stay at you probably would have seen oil stay at around 120 or even go slightly higher. around 120 or even go slightly higher. around 120 or even go slightly higher. So the fact that there was this So the fact that there was this So the fact that there was this reflexive move, I think is a belief by a reflexive move, I think is a belief by a reflexive move, I think is a belief by a lot of the sharps that there is no path lot of the sharps that there is no path lot of the sharps that there is no path to a sustained conflict. there's going to a sustained conflict. there's going to a sustained conflict. there's going to be a lot of chest bumping from the to be a lot of chest bumping from the to be a lot of chest bumping from the Iranians obviously because they need to Iranians obviously because they need to Iranians obviously because they need to save face and they will want to set up save face and they will want to set up save face and they will want to set up whoever comes next to have the most whoever comes next to have the most whoever comes next to have the most successful chance of governing. So my successful chance of governing. So my successful chance of governing. So my perspective is that was a trial balloon. perspective is that was a trial balloon. perspective is that was a trial balloon. I think it validated what everybody I think it validated what everybody I think it validated what everybody thought which is that this is going to thought which is that this is going to thought which is that this is going to be a shortrun thing. I agree with that. be a shortrun thing. I agree with that. be a shortrun thing. I agree with that. The downstream impact is, I think, The downstream impact is, I think, The downstream impact is, I think, correct what Brad said, which is it correct what Brad said, which is it correct what Brad said, which is it could show up in some short-term price could show up in some short-term price could show up in some short-term price spikes. But then on March 11th, you saw spikes. But then on March 11th, you saw spikes. But then on March 11th, you saw what Chris Wright did, which is the what Chris Wright did, which is the what Chris Wright did, which is the president activated a whole bunch of president activated a whole bunch of president activated a whole bunch of member countries in the IEA, and I think member countries in the IEA, and I think member countries in the IEA, and I think Chris released 172 million barrels. I Chris released 172 million barrels. I Chris released 172 million barrels. I think there's a coordinated release of think there's a coordinated release of think there's a coordinated release of about 400 million barrels of petroleum. about 400 million barrels of petroleum. about 400 million barrels of petroleum. That's going to dampen the effect of any That's going to dampen the effect of any That's going to dampen the effect of any price spike. On top of that, I think the price spike. On top of that, I think the price spike. On top of that, I think the estimate is there's probably another estimate is there's probably another estimate is there's probably another billion or so more barrels that one billion or so more barrels that one billion or so more barrels that one could could could release out of strategic stock piles. release out of strategic stock piles. release out of strategic stock piles. So, I think that both of these two So, I think that both of these two So, I think that both of these two things together kind of paint a picture things together kind of paint a picture things together kind of paint a picture that probably the worst is behind us. that probably the worst is behind us. that probably the worst is behind us. And I think now it's about finding the And I think now it's about finding the And I think now it's about finding the off-ramp. off-ramp. off-ramp. Sax, your thoughts? Sax, your thoughts? Sax, your thoughts? >> Well, I agree that we should try to find >> Well, I agree that we should try to find >> Well, I agree that we should try to find the off-ramp. I mean, I agree with what the off-ramp. I mean, I agree with what the off-ramp. I mean, I agree with what Brad and Jamas said about that. Look, Brad and Jamas said about that. Look, Brad and Jamas said about that. Look, we've degraded Iranian capabilities we've degraded Iranian capabilities we've degraded Iranian capabilities massively. Their army, navy, air force, massively. Their army, navy, air force, massively. Their army, navy, air force, all been destroyed. This is a good time all been destroyed. This is a good time all been destroyed. This is a good time to declare victory and get out. And that to declare victory and get out. And that to declare victory and get out. And that is clearly what the markets would like is clearly what the markets would like is clearly what the markets would like to see. You are seeing, however, a to see. You are seeing, however, a to see. You are seeing, however, a faction of of people, I'd say largely, faction of of people, I'd say largely, faction of of people, I'd say largely, but not exclusively in the Republican but not exclusively in the Republican but not exclusively in the Republican party, who want to escalate the war and party, who want to escalate the war and party, who want to escalate the war and who are calling for things like ground who are calling for things like ground who are calling for things like ground troops or regime change or they simply troops or regime change or they simply troops or regime change or they simply want the pounding of Iran to just keep want the pounding of Iran to just keep want the pounding of Iran to just keep going on and on. I saw an oped in the going on and on. I saw an oped in the going on and on. I saw an oped in the Wall Street Journal to that effect that Wall Street Journal to that effect that Wall Street Journal to that effect that we shouldn't try and find an offramp, we we shouldn't try and find an offramp, we we shouldn't try and find an offramp, we should just keep going with this. And I should just keep going with this. And I should just keep going with this. And I just want to lay out, I think, some of just want to lay out, I think, some of just want to lay out, I think, some of the risks of what an escalatory approach the risks of what an escalatory approach the risks of what an escalatory approach could entail. So, first of all, we're could entail. So, first of all, we're could entail. So, first of all, we're all seeing that the the straits for all seeing that the the straits for all seeing that the the straits for moves are closed right now. We don't moves are closed right now. We don't moves are closed right now. We don't want that to persist longer than it has want that to persist longer than it has want that to persist longer than it has to, but there are actually worse to, but there are actually worse to, but there are actually worse outcomes than that. So if the Iranians outcomes than that. So if the Iranians outcomes than that. So if the Iranians get hit, if their oil and gas get hit, if their oil and gas get hit, if their oil and gas infrastructure gets hit, they've already infrastructure gets hit, they've already infrastructure gets hit, they've already said they're going to engage in tit said they're going to engage in tit said they're going to engage in tit fortat retaliation against the Gulf fortat retaliation against the Gulf fortat retaliation against the Gulf States. And we saw there was recently um States. And we saw there was recently um States. And we saw there was recently um the Iranians blew up this giant oil the Iranians blew up this giant oil the Iranians blew up this giant oil depot in Oman. You saw some of those depot in Oman. You saw some of those depot in Oman. You saw some of those images. They could continue to target images. They could continue to target images. They could continue to target the oil and gas infrastructure across the oil and gas infrastructure across the oil and gas infrastructure across the Gulf States. And if that happens, it the Gulf States. And if that happens, it the Gulf States. And if that happens, it won't really matter if the straits get won't really matter if the straits get won't really matter if the straits get reopened because you won't be able to reopened because you won't be able to reopened because you won't be able to restart oil and gas production in the restart oil and gas production in the restart oil and gas production in the Middle East. So that would be, I think, Middle East. So that would be, I think, Middle East. So that would be, I think, a much worse outcome that could result a much worse outcome that could result a much worse outcome that could result from escalation. from escalation. from escalation. Furthermore, there's an even worse, I Furthermore, there's an even worse, I Furthermore, there's an even worse, I think, scenario from there, which is the think, scenario from there, which is the think, scenario from there, which is the region is very dependent on desalination region is very dependent on desalination region is very dependent on desalination plants. I think something like 70% of plants. I think something like 70% of plants. I think something like 70% of Riad gets their water from desalination. Riad gets their water from desalination. Riad gets their water from desalination. I think it's something like 100 million I think it's something like 100 million I think it's something like 100 million people on the Arabian Peninsula that get people on the Arabian Peninsula that get people on the Arabian Peninsula that get their water from Delaw. I mean, it's their water from Delaw. I mean, it's their water from Delaw. I mean, it's basically a desert, right? basically a desert, right? basically a desert, right? >> And those DEL plants are soft targets. >> And those DEL plants are soft targets. >> And those DEL plants are soft targets. You already saw there was I think there You already saw there was I think there You already saw there was I think there was one diesel plant in Iran that got was one diesel plant in Iran that got was one diesel plant in Iran that got hit and then it caused Iran again tit hit and then it caused Iran again tit hit and then it caused Iran again tit for tat to hit a delaw plant. I think it for tat to hit a delaw plant. I think it for tat to hit a delaw plant. I think it was in Kuwait. I could be off about was in Kuwait. I could be off about was in Kuwait. I could be off about that. that. that. >> But any event, if you see that type of >> But any event, if you see that type of >> But any event, if you see that type of destruction continue, you could destruction continue, you could destruction continue, you could literally render the Gulf almost literally render the Gulf almost literally render the Gulf almost uninhabitable. I you're not going to uninhabitable. I you're not going to uninhabitable. I you're not going to have enough water for 100 million people have enough water for 100 million people have enough water for 100 million people and human beings just cannot survive and human beings just cannot survive and human beings just cannot survive very long without water. So that would very long without water. So that would very long without water. So that would be a truly catastrophic scenario and be a truly catastrophic scenario and be a truly catastrophic scenario and we're talking about destroying the Gulf we're talking about destroying the Gulf we're talking about destroying the Gulf States economically and then also from a States economically and then also from a States economically and then also from a humanitarian perspective. So I think we humanitarian perspective. So I think we humanitarian perspective. So I think we have to take things like this into have to take things like this into have to take things like this into account when you hear people preaching account when you hear people preaching account when you hear people preaching for or advocating for escalation. You for or advocating for escalation. You for or advocating for escalation. You also have to I think consider the also have to I think consider the also have to I think consider the impacts on on Israel. I mean, it's hard impacts on on Israel. I mean, it's hard impacts on on Israel. I mean, it's hard to know exactly how much damage Israel to know exactly how much damage Israel to know exactly how much damage Israel is taking right now. There's a social is taking right now. There's a social is taking right now. There's a social media blackout, but what you're starting media blackout, but what you're starting media blackout, but what you're starting to hear trickle out is that Israel is to hear trickle out is that Israel is to hear trickle out is that Israel is getting hit harder than they've ever getting hit harder than they've ever getting hit harder than they've ever been hit before in their history. And been hit before in their history. And been hit before in their history. And we're only two weeks into this. If this we're only two weeks into this. If this we're only two weeks into this. If this war continues for weeks or months, war continues for weeks or months, war continues for weeks or months, then Israel could just be destroyed. then Israel could just be destroyed. then Israel could just be destroyed. There are very large parts of it. Now, I There are very large parts of it. Now, I There are very large parts of it. Now, I think Israel is a harder target than the think Israel is a harder target than the think Israel is a harder target than the Gulf States. Their infrastructure is Gulf States. Their infrastructure is Gulf States. Their infrastructure is more hardened. Also, they're further more hardened. Also, they're further more hardened. Also, they're further away. The Gulf States are vulnerable to away. The Gulf States are vulnerable to away. The Gulf States are vulnerable to drones and short-range missiles, whereas drones and short-range missiles, whereas drones and short-range missiles, whereas Israel is mainly vulnerable to Israel is mainly vulnerable to Israel is mainly vulnerable to long-range missiles. Nonetheless, at long-range missiles. Nonetheless, at long-range missiles. Nonetheless, at some point, their air defenses could some point, their air defenses could some point, their air defenses could become exhausted if it hasn't happened become exhausted if it hasn't happened become exhausted if it hasn't happened already. And Israel could get seriously already. And Israel could get seriously already. And Israel could get seriously destroyed. And then you have to worry destroyed. And then you have to worry destroyed. And then you have to worry about Israel escalating the war by about Israel escalating the war by about Israel escalating the war by contemplating using a nuclear weapon, contemplating using a nuclear weapon, contemplating using a nuclear weapon, which would truly be catastrophic. So which would truly be catastrophic. So which would truly be catastrophic. So there's a lot of scenarios here, a lot there's a lot of scenarios here, a lot there's a lot of scenarios here, a lot of really of really of really frightening scenarios about where frightening scenarios about where frightening scenarios about where escalation could lead. And even though escalation could lead. And even though escalation could lead. And even though the United States is a much more the United States is a much more the United States is a much more powerful country than Iran, they powerful country than Iran, they powerful country than Iran, they essentially have a dead man's switch essentially have a dead man's switch essentially have a dead man's switch over the economic fate of the Gulf over the economic fate of the Gulf over the economic fate of the Gulf States and even potentially beyond that, States and even potentially beyond that, States and even potentially beyond that, you know, the habitability of some of you know, the habitability of some of you know, the habitability of some of these these countries. So I do tend to these these countries. So I do tend to these these countries. So I do tend to think that this is a good time to think that this is a good time to think that this is a good time to declare victory. I think Brad, you're declare victory. I think Brad, you're declare victory. I think Brad, you're right that the president has never said right that the president has never said right that the president has never said that democracy promotion is one of his that democracy promotion is one of his that democracy promotion is one of his objectives. Yes, Jal, obviously everyone objectives. Yes, Jal, obviously everyone objectives. Yes, Jal, obviously everyone would welcome if the people rose up and would welcome if the people rose up and would welcome if the people rose up and chose a new regime, but that's not chose a new regime, but that's not chose a new regime, but that's not something that we've said we have to something that we've said we have to something that we've said we have to accomplish. And this would be a really accomplish. And this would be a really accomplish. And this would be a really good time to take stock of where we are good time to take stock of where we are good time to take stock of where we are and try, I think, to seek an off-ramp. and try, I think, to seek an off-ramp. and try, I think, to seek an off-ramp. And look, if escalation doesn't lead And look, if escalation doesn't lead And look, if escalation doesn't lead anywhere good, then you have to think anywhere good, then you have to think anywhere good, then you have to think about, well, how do you deescalate? And about, well, how do you deescalate? And about, well, how do you deescalate? And deescalation, I think, involves reaching deescalation, I think, involves reaching deescalation, I think, involves reaching some sort of ceasefire agreement or some some sort of ceasefire agreement or some some sort of ceasefire agreement or some sort of negotiated settlement with Iran. sort of negotiated settlement with Iran. sort of negotiated settlement with Iran. And we can get into more of what that And we can get into more of what that And we can get into more of what that looks like. But I think that's the big looks like. But I think that's the big looks like. But I think that's the big picture is that if escalation could lead picture is that if escalation could lead picture is that if escalation could lead in all these horrifying directions, then in all these horrifying directions, then in all these horrifying directions, then I think that's not the right approach. I think that's not the right approach. I think that's not the right approach. You have to look at deescalation. You have to look at deescalation. You have to look at deescalation. >> Jake, where are you on this? >> Jake, where are you on this? >> Jake, where are you on this? >> Complicated. I have my personal feelings >> Complicated. I have my personal feelings >> Complicated. I have my personal feelings on regime change. And since we don't on regime change. And since we don't on regime change. And since we don't have the information uh the MSAD and the have the information uh the MSAD and the have the information uh the MSAD and the CIA and Trump has, I do think Trump CIA and Trump has, I do think Trump CIA and Trump has, I do think Trump would only do this if he had a very high would only do this if he had a very high would only do this if he had a very high probability of success and an off-ramp. probability of success and an off-ramp. probability of success and an off-ramp. However, it's not looking good with the However, it's not looking good with the However, it's not looking good with the offramp right now and it could be quite offramp right now and it could be quite offramp right now and it could be quite chaotic. I think if the neocons get chaotic. I think if the neocons get chaotic. I think if the neocons get their way and the people on poly market their way and the people on poly market their way and the people on poly market are correct, the sharps who say 57% are correct, the sharps who say 57% are correct, the sharps who say 57% chance we'll have boots on the ground, I chance we'll have boots on the ground, I chance we'll have boots on the ground, I think this is kind of the end of Trump's think this is kind of the end of Trump's think this is kind of the end of Trump's second term. And if you were to put second term. And if you were to put second term. And if you were to put together the series of mistakes that together the series of mistakes that together the series of mistakes that he's made um and the administration's he's made um and the administration's he's made um and the administration's made, they're really at the heart of why made, they're really at the heart of why made, they're really at the heart of why people voted for him. You take starting people voted for him. You take starting people voted for him. You take starting a war like this specifically with Iran. a war like this specifically with Iran. a war like this specifically with Iran. That's what we were told was the reason That's what we were told was the reason That's what we were told was the reason to vote for President Trump. He was not to vote for President Trump. He was not to vote for President Trump. He was not going to take us down this path. He was going to take us down this path. He was going to take us down this path. He was not going to not going to not going to risk World War II. He was not going to risk World War II. He was not going to risk World War II. He was not going to risk a nuclear possibility as as Sax risk a nuclear possibility as as Sax risk a nuclear possibility as as Sax correctly points out. And now you have correctly points out. And now you have correctly points out. And now you have all the MAGA supporters from, you know, all the MAGA supporters from, you know, all the MAGA supporters from, you know, Tucker to MTG to Rogan, Matt Walsh, Tucker to MTG to Rogan, Matt Walsh, Tucker to MTG to Rogan, Matt Walsh, Megan Kelly, they are all up in arms Megan Kelly, they are all up in arms Megan Kelly, they are all up in arms about this is the end of MAGA and this about this is the end of MAGA and this about this is the end of MAGA and this is, you know, a massive betrayal. is, you know, a massive betrayal. is, you know, a massive betrayal. There's the 1B betrayal where Trump There's the 1B betrayal where Trump There's the 1B betrayal where Trump wouldn't release the Epstein files. wouldn't release the Epstein files. wouldn't release the Epstein files. We'll put that aside because I don't We'll put that aside because I don't We'll put that aside because I don't think that's as important as starting think that's as important as starting think that's as important as starting World War II. Um, and then obviously the World War II. Um, and then obviously the World War II. Um, and then obviously the insane unnecessary cruelty we talked insane unnecessary cruelty we talked insane unnecessary cruelty we talked about many times on this podcast of ICE about many times on this podcast of ICE about many times on this podcast of ICE agents which he has corrected by getting agents which he has corrected by getting agents which he has corrected by getting rid of Christy Gnome. So you start rid of Christy Gnome. So you start rid of Christy Gnome. So you start putting these things together. If this putting these things together. If this putting these things together. If this continues for another 6 months, it's continues for another 6 months, it's continues for another 6 months, it's basically going to result in the basically going to result in the basically going to result in the Democrats doing a clean sweep in the Democrats doing a clean sweep in the Democrats doing a clean sweep in the midterms. Here's the chart that I think, midterms. Here's the chart that I think, midterms. Here's the chart that I think, you know, the Republicans really need to you know, the Republicans really need to you know, the Republicans really need to look at at how misguided, look at at how misguided, look at at how misguided, you know, uh, this all is. This is the you know, uh, this all is. This is the you know, uh, this all is. This is the chart that should be absolutely chart that should be absolutely chart that should be absolutely terrifying. Nobody wanted this war or terrifying. Nobody wanted this war or terrifying. Nobody wanted this war or very few people wanted it besides the very few people wanted it besides the very few people wanted it besides the neocons and the people of Iran probably neocons and the people of Iran probably neocons and the people of Iran probably and the Israelis. But the chances of the and the Israelis. But the chances of the and the Israelis. But the chances of the Democrats sweeping now is up to 45%. Democrats sweeping now is up to 45%. Democrats sweeping now is up to 45%. This just happened. The Democrats are This just happened. The Democrats are This just happened. The Democrats are going to sweep, then they're going to going to sweep, then they're going to going to sweep, then they're going to win in 2028. and the entire agenda of uh win in 2028. and the entire agenda of uh win in 2028. and the entire agenda of uh MAGA and Trump's 2.0 will be gone. And MAGA and Trump's 2.0 will be gone. And MAGA and Trump's 2.0 will be gone. And then you look at just absolutely then you look at just absolutely then you look at just absolutely ignoring the working man. Inflation ignoring the working man. Inflation ignoring the working man. Inflation going up above 3% as you pointed out is going up above 3% as you pointed out is going up above 3% as you pointed out is a likelihood, Brad. Unemployment ticking a likelihood, Brad. Unemployment ticking a likelihood, Brad. Unemployment ticking up. Still very low, but it's ticked up up. Still very low, but it's ticked up up. Still very low, but it's ticked up 10%. Worth keeping an eye on. These 10%. Worth keeping an eye on. These 10%. Worth keeping an eye on. These foreign affairs things are the least foreign affairs things are the least foreign affairs things are the least important to the American people. It's important to the American people. It's important to the American people. It's very, very low on the list of very, very low on the list of very, very low on the list of priorities. And people are looking at priorities. And people are looking at priorities. And people are looking at Trump and what they believe is the Trump and what they believe is the Trump and what they believe is the enriching of his family and all these enriching of his family and all these enriching of his family and all these business deals. business deals. business deals. >> You're in the kitchen sinking it. >> You're in the kitchen sinking it. >> You're in the kitchen sinking it. >> It's literally what I was thinking. >> It's literally what I was thinking. >> It's literally what I was thinking. >> You're bringing everything at 1, two, >> You're bringing everything at 1, two, >> You're bringing everything at 1, two, three, four. Number one, doing the war three, four. Number one, doing the war three, four. Number one, doing the war that everybody said he should not do, that everybody said he should not do, that everybody said he should not do, include and that that was why we should include and that that was why we should include and that that was why we should vote for him. Number two, the Epstein vote for him. Number two, the Epstein vote for him. Number two, the Epstein files. Number three, the ICE cruelty. files. Number three, the ICE cruelty. files. Number three, the ICE cruelty. And number four, not working for the And number four, not working for the And number four, not working for the American working man who doesn't own American working man who doesn't own American working man who doesn't own equities. Those are four. 1 2 3 four. equities. Those are four. 1 2 3 four. equities. Those are four. 1 2 3 four. It's not a kitchen sink. This is not my It's not a kitchen sink. This is not my It's not a kitchen sink. This is not my personal feelings on this. This is my personal feelings on this. This is my personal feelings on this. This is my assessment of the situation. If he assessment of the situation. If he assessment of the situation. If he doesn't find an offer ramp quickly, doesn't find an offer ramp quickly, doesn't find an offer ramp quickly, they're going to lose both houses in the they're going to lose both houses in the they're going to lose both houses in the midterms. That's I think the thing Trump midterms. That's I think the thing Trump midterms. That's I think the thing Trump needs to really consider and I think he needs to really consider and I think he needs to really consider and I think he will consider I think he's going to find will consider I think he's going to find will consider I think he's going to find an offer. an offer. an offer. >> Right. That is the topic. The topic was >> Right. That is the topic. The topic was >> Right. That is the topic. The topic was are we going to find an offramp or not are we going to find an offramp or not are we going to find an offramp or not find an offramp in Iran? And I think Sax find an offramp in Iran? And I think Sax find an offramp in Iran? And I think Sax made the argument that there's danger made the argument that there's danger made the argument that there's danger that neocons and others are arguing that that neocons and others are arguing that that neocons and others are arguing that we expand, put boots on the ground. we expand, put boots on the ground. we expand, put boots on the ground. You're saying if he doesn't it'll be a You're saying if he doesn't it'll be a You're saying if he doesn't it'll be a disaster. Chimath and I both say he disaster. Chimath and I both say he disaster. Chimath and I both say he will. Right. And so the will. Right. And so the will. Right. And so the >> wait will what? >> wait will what? >> wait will what? >> He will find an off-ramp over you know >> He will find an off-ramp over you know >> He will find an off-ramp over you know in the nearer term because the Trump in the nearer term because the Trump in the nearer term because the Trump doctrine is not the neocon doctrine. As doctrine is not the neocon doctrine. As doctrine is not the neocon doctrine. As much as people want to talk about Iran much as people want to talk about Iran much as people want to talk about Iran Iran Iran. I think as I explained last Iran Iran. I think as I explained last Iran Iran. I think as I explained last week I think this is about China China. week I think this is about China China. week I think this is about China China. And you have to remember at the end of And you have to remember at the end of And you have to remember at the end of this month he has a pivotal 3 days with this month he has a pivotal 3 days with this month he has a pivotal 3 days with Xi Jinping in China. This is going to be Xi Jinping in China. This is going to be Xi Jinping in China. This is going to be an absolutely historic convening an absolutely historic convening an absolutely historic convening of the two superpowers of the two superpowers of the two superpowers that run the world. One which is us, we that run the world. One which is us, we that run the world. One which is us, we are the established and one which is are the established and one which is are the established and one which is China who wants to be reasscended. China who wants to be reasscended. China who wants to be reasscended. And I would bet dollars to donuts that And I would bet dollars to donuts that And I would bet dollars to donuts that there is going to be an enormous there is going to be an enormous there is going to be an enormous incentive for Xi to negotiate a grand incentive for Xi to negotiate a grand incentive for Xi to negotiate a grand bargain in those three days bargain in those three days bargain in those three days and do something historic for himself. and do something historic for himself. and do something historic for himself. And I think that the president will use And I think that the president will use And I think that the president will use that if he thinks that it creates that if he thinks that it creates that if he thinks that it creates leverage. I leverage. I leverage. I >> I think it's is a great insight. How >> I think it's is a great insight. How >> I think it's is a great insight. How does the straight of Hormuz open? If does the straight of Hormuz open? If does the straight of Hormuz open? If this war is dragging on and Israel, this war is dragging on and Israel, this war is dragging on and Israel, which seems to be the driving force in which seems to be the driving force in which seems to be the driving force in this, if Israel keeps it up with uh this, if Israel keeps it up with uh this, if Israel keeps it up with uh Iran, how do we ever get the straight Iran, how do we ever get the straight Iran, how do we ever get the straight open again? open again? open again? >> I think the offramp is that the United >> I think the offramp is that the United >> I think the offramp is that the United States uh you know, declares victory, States uh you know, declares victory, States uh you know, declares victory, does what Zach says and says, "Listen, does what Zach says and says, "Listen, does what Zach says and says, "Listen, we degraded and we destroyed. That's we degraded and we destroyed. That's we degraded and we destroyed. That's what we came here to do. We did not come what we came here to do. We did not come what we came here to do. We did not come here for some experiment in in here for some experiment in in here for some experiment in in democracy. We wish the best to the democracy. We wish the best to the democracy. We wish the best to the Iranian people to do the things they Iranian people to do the things they Iranian people to do the things they need to do. And if Iran does not back need to do. And if Iran does not back need to do. And if Iran does not back down, if after that declaration, Iran down, if after that declaration, Iran down, if after that declaration, Iran continues to destroy cargo containers continues to destroy cargo containers continues to destroy cargo containers moving through the narrow straits, I moving through the narrow straits, I moving through the narrow straits, I think you're going to see Iran's think you're going to see Iran's think you're going to see Iran's neighbors in Israel and others get very neighbors in Israel and others get very neighbors in Israel and others get very involved as it pertains to Iran because involved as it pertains to Iran because involved as it pertains to Iran because it's in their interest. Listen, the it's in their interest. Listen, the it's in their interest. Listen, the United States produces 20 million United States produces 20 million United States produces 20 million barrels of oil a day and we consume 20 barrels of oil a day and we consume 20 barrels of oil a day and we consume 20 million barrels a day. This is a this is million barrels a day. This is a this is million barrels a day. This is a this is a modest problem for the United States. a modest problem for the United States. a modest problem for the United States. This is a massive problem for China. This is a massive problem for China. This is a massive problem for China. This is a massive problem for Asia. This This is a massive problem for Asia. This This is a massive problem for Asia. This is a massive problem for all of our is a massive problem for all of our is a massive problem for all of our friends in the Gulf who are trying to friends in the Gulf who are trying to friends in the Gulf who are trying to dodge Iranian missiles right now. So, dodge Iranian missiles right now. So, dodge Iranian missiles right now. So, there are a lot of people in the world there are a lot of people in the world there are a lot of people in the world who will take up arms to deal with the who will take up arms to deal with the who will take up arms to deal with the Iranians if the United States isn't Iranians if the United States isn't Iranians if the United States isn't there because we can take care of there because we can take care of there because we can take care of ourselves. Your position Brad just to ourselves. Your position Brad just to ourselves. Your position Brad just to confirm it is we are going to leave the confirm it is we are going to leave the confirm it is we are going to leave the war in the next 30 days and then if the war in the next 30 days and then if the war in the next 30 days and then if the straits are not open then China, India straits are not open then China, India straits are not open then China, India and all the Gulf uh countries that are and all the Gulf uh countries that are and all the Gulf uh countries that are impacted by it they will protect it. impacted by it they will protect it. impacted by it they will protect it. They will fight Iran. They will fight Iran. They will fight Iran. >> I think they'll put a lot of pressure on >> I think they'll put a lot of pressure on >> I think they'll put a lot of pressure on Iran not to continue firing missiles at Iran not to continue firing missiles at Iran not to continue firing missiles at their ships. Right? At the end of the their ships. Right? At the end of the their ships. Right? At the end of the day this is not just an American day this is not just an American day this is not just an American problem. Right? And let's be clear we're problem. Right? And let's be clear we're problem. Right? And let's be clear we're always involved in this part of the always involved in this part of the always involved in this part of the world. The only question is, are we world. The only question is, are we world. The only question is, are we going to have an active armada that's going to have an active armada that's going to have an active armada that's engaged in active military activities engaged in active military activities engaged in active military activities against Iran? And what I'm suggesting against Iran? And what I'm suggesting against Iran? And what I'm suggesting again, and listen, anytime you try to again, and listen, anytime you try to again, and listen, anytime you try to clean up a mess like this, there is clean up a mess like this, there is clean up a mess like this, there is risk. This is not a riskfree, you know, risk. This is not a riskfree, you know, risk. This is not a riskfree, you know, initiative by the United States, nor was initiative by the United States, nor was initiative by the United States, nor was Venezuela. But let me steal man the Venezuela. But let me steal man the Venezuela. But let me steal man the alternative. doing nothing and allowing alternative. doing nothing and allowing alternative. doing nothing and allowing Iran to procure, you know, the Iran to procure, you know, the Iran to procure, you know, the ingredients for a nuclear missile when ingredients for a nuclear missile when ingredients for a nuclear missile when they are set on the destruction of the they are set on the destruction of the they are set on the destruction of the United States and US interests. Doing United States and US interests. Doing United States and US interests. Doing nothing in Venezuela while the Monroe nothing in Venezuela while the Monroe nothing in Venezuela while the Monroe Doctrine is totally wrecked and we let Doctrine is totally wrecked and we let Doctrine is totally wrecked and we let our adversaries take up, you know, our adversaries take up, you know, our adversaries take up, you know, positions in in South America. Those positions in in South America. Those positions in in South America. Those also have risks, right? Those carry a also have risks, right? Those carry a also have risks, right? Those carry a lot of risks. And so we're we're lot of risks. And so we're we're lot of risks. And so we're we're weighing these two risks. Again, for me, weighing these two risks. Again, for me, weighing these two risks. Again, for me, I don't like the fact that we're engaged I don't like the fact that we're engaged I don't like the fact that we're engaged in military activities here. But I will in military activities here. But I will in military activities here. But I will tell you, I am very much on the side tell you, I am very much on the side tell you, I am very much on the side that if we're going to go protect that if we're going to go protect that if we're going to go protect American national security interest, you American national security interest, you American national security interest, you go in, you do the the degrading of their go in, you do the the degrading of their go in, you do the the degrading of their capability and you get out. And I think, capability and you get out. And I think, capability and you get out. And I think, you know, that's what I hear out of the you know, that's what I hear out of the you know, that's what I hear out of the president. president. president. >> Jim, you had a followup. >> Jim, you had a followup. >> Jim, you had a followup. >> All roads lead to China. I think that >> All roads lead to China. I think that >> All roads lead to China. I think that there you're going to see Xi offer up a there you're going to see Xi offer up a there you're going to see Xi offer up a grand bargain. And I think it's up to grand bargain. And I think it's up to grand bargain. And I think it's up to the president to decide whether he wants the president to decide whether he wants the president to decide whether he wants to take it and see what he wants to add to take it and see what he wants to add to take it and see what he wants to add to it to get something done. But I just to it to get something done. But I just to it to get something done. But I just don't see them meeting and coming out don't see them meeting and coming out don't see them meeting and coming out with nothing. I think I see them going with nothing. I think I see them going with nothing. I think I see them going in and coming out with something that's in and coming out with something that's in and coming out with something that's historic. historic. historic. And I think that all of this Venezuela And I think that all of this Venezuela And I think that all of this Venezuela and Iran together is all about China. and Iran together is all about China. and Iran together is all about China. >> Let me just say one thing as to that, >> Let me just say one thing as to that, >> Let me just say one thing as to that, Chimath. I think because I think the Chimath. I think because I think the Chimath. I think because I think the point is absolutely spoton, right? point is absolutely spoton, right? point is absolutely spoton, right? Probably the single greatest takeaway Probably the single greatest takeaway Probably the single greatest takeaway for us from an investment perspective at for us from an investment perspective at for us from an investment perspective at the start of this war was that the the start of this war was that the the start of this war was that the Chinese, right, didn't take up arms on Chinese, right, didn't take up arms on Chinese, right, didn't take up arms on behalf of Iran behalf of Iran behalf of Iran aren't defending Iran and they didn't aren't defending Iran and they didn't aren't defending Iran and they didn't cancel the summit with the president, cancel the summit with the president, cancel the summit with the president, right? The very fact that because they right? The very fact that because they right? The very fact that because they need him, they need the oil. 20% of need him, they need the oil. 20% of need him, they need the oil. 20% of their entire domestic consumption is oil their entire domestic consumption is oil their entire domestic consumption is oil from Venezuela and Iran. 20%. But it's from Venezuela and Iran. 20%. But it's from Venezuela and Iran. 20%. But it's not 20%. Because it's literally 100% of not 20%. Because it's literally 100% of not 20%. Because it's literally 100% of anything that's feed stock, anything anything that's feed stock, anything anything that's feed stock, anything that's transport, cars, buses, planes. that's transport, cars, buses, planes. that's transport, cars, buses, planes. They are in an enormous world of hurt. They are in an enormous world of hurt. They are in an enormous world of hurt. Now, they have a strategic petroleum Now, they have a strategic petroleum Now, they have a strategic petroleum reserve as well, and it's quite robust, reserve as well, and it's quite robust, reserve as well, and it's quite robust, but it's not robust enough to sustain but it's not robust enough to sustain but it's not robust enough to sustain five or 6 months of this. It's not that five or 6 months of this. It's not that five or 6 months of this. It's not that robust. So, at the end of the day, who robust. So, at the end of the day, who robust. So, at the end of the day, who is going to be hurting the most? It is is going to be hurting the most? It is is going to be hurting the most? It is China. And so if you play this game China. And so if you play this game China. And so if you play this game theory out, the reason he kept it is theory out, the reason he kept it is theory out, the reason he kept it is because now he needs a summit even more. because now he needs a summit even more. because now he needs a summit even more. Could you imagine if the president Could you imagine if the president Could you imagine if the president canled, that would be a disaster for the canled, that would be a disaster for the canled, that would be a disaster for the Chinese. Chinese. Chinese. So the fact that it's still on the So the fact that it's still on the So the fact that it's still on the books, if I was Xi, I'd be like, how do books, if I was Xi, I'd be like, how do books, if I was Xi, I'd be like, how do I negotiate and help find the off-ramp? I negotiate and help find the off-ramp? I negotiate and help find the off-ramp? How do I end up fixing this faster? All How do I end up fixing this faster? All How do I end up fixing this faster? All right, remember you have 25% right, remember you have 25% right, remember you have 25% unemployment of young men inside of unemployment of young men inside of unemployment of young men inside of China. 25% today. What do you think it China. 25% today. What do you think it China. 25% today. What do you think it goes to in five months with no oil? goes to in five months with no oil? goes to in five months with no oil? >> It's in the >> It's in the >> It's in the >> That's the unemployment rate you should >> That's the unemployment rate you should >> That's the unemployment rate you should be focused on, Jason. be focused on, Jason. be focused on, Jason. >> Oh, the China issue is a separate one >> Oh, the China issue is a separate one >> Oh, the China issue is a separate one just to just to just to >> It's not separate. >> It's not separate. >> It's not separate. >> No, no, that was separate from my point >> No, no, that was separate from my point >> No, no, that was separate from my point is my point. I I was bringing up a is my point. I I was bringing up a is my point. I I was bringing up a different point. different point. different point. >> Yeah, your kitchen sink didn't include >> Yeah, your kitchen sink didn't include >> Yeah, your kitchen sink didn't include the Chinese. I get that. I'm just adding the Chinese. I get that. I'm just adding the Chinese. I get that. I'm just adding to your kitchen sink. to your kitchen sink. to your kitchen sink. >> I didn't have a kitchen sink. I have >> I didn't have a kitchen sink. I have >> I didn't have a kitchen sink. I have four very salient points. All right, four very salient points. All right, four very salient points. All right, Sax, I'll give you the final word here. Sax, I'll give you the final word here. Sax, I'll give you the final word here. Well, look, that was a bit of a a Well, look, that was a bit of a a Well, look, that was a bit of a a broadside, Jay Cal, where you kind of broadside, Jay Cal, where you kind of broadside, Jay Cal, where you kind of did kitchen sink it. But look, here did kitchen sink it. But look, here did kitchen sink it. But look, here here's the part I'll agree with you here's the part I'll agree with you here's the part I'll agree with you about, which is it doesn't take a about, which is it doesn't take a about, which is it doesn't take a political genius to understand that long political genius to understand that long political genius to understand that long wars are unpopular. wars are unpopular. wars are unpopular. It will hurt the Republicans in the It will hurt the Republicans in the It will hurt the Republicans in the midterms or 28 if this does turn into a midterms or 28 if this does turn into a midterms or 28 if this does turn into a long war. Fortunately, I think the long war. Fortunately, I think the long war. Fortunately, I think the president understands that his political president understands that his political president understands that his political instincts are impeccable and he's always instincts are impeccable and he's always instincts are impeccable and he's always favored favored favored short, decisive, swift actions, military short, decisive, swift actions, military short, decisive, swift actions, military actions, whether it was Midnight Hammer, actions, whether it was Midnight Hammer, actions, whether it was Midnight Hammer, whether it was the Maduro raid. I think whether it was the Maduro raid. I think whether it was the Maduro raid. I think that is his inclination and preference. that is his inclination and preference. that is his inclination and preference. And I think we are pretty much at or And I think we are pretty much at or And I think we are pretty much at or close to a point where the president's close to a point where the president's close to a point where the president's going to have to decide on next steps. I going to have to decide on next steps. I going to have to decide on next steps. I think he's indicated that we have think he's indicated that we have think he's indicated that we have completed our objectives and I think completed our objectives and I think completed our objectives and I think it's just important that we don't let it's just important that we don't let it's just important that we don't let this neocon wing of the party try to this neocon wing of the party try to this neocon wing of the party try to expand the objectives or aims of the war expand the objectives or aims of the war expand the objectives or aims of the war because frankly they've always been because frankly they've always been because frankly they've always been wrong about everything. I mean these are wrong about everything. I mean these are wrong about everything. I mean these are people who never wanted to get out of people who never wanted to get out of people who never wanted to get out of Iraq and Afghanistan would still be Iraq and Afghanistan would still be Iraq and Afghanistan would still be there after 20 years if they had their there after 20 years if they had their there after 20 years if they had their choice. So, I think it's just important choice. So, I think it's just important choice. So, I think it's just important to not listen to those people. And look, to not listen to those people. And look, to not listen to those people. And look, it's not just one op-ed in the Wall it's not just one op-ed in the Wall it's not just one op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. The Wall Street Journal Street Journal. The Wall Street Journal Street Journal. The Wall Street Journal is kind of the tip of the spear is kind of the tip of the spear is kind of the tip of the spear representing that whole neocon representing that whole neocon representing that whole neocon establishment. And I think it's just establishment. And I think it's just establishment. And I think it's just important that this is the time to important that this is the time to important that this is the time to frankly ignore those voices and let the frankly ignore those voices and let the frankly ignore those voices and let the president do what I think his political president do what I think his political president do what I think his political instincts are telling him to do, which instincts are telling him to do, which instincts are telling him to do, which is to wrap this thing up. is to wrap this thing up. is to wrap this thing up. >> I'm in strong agreement, and it is my >> I'm in strong agreement, and it is my >> I'm in strong agreement, and it is my hope, too, that he wraps it up quickly hope, too, that he wraps it up quickly hope, too, that he wraps it up quickly and that we don't have any more loss of and that we don't have any more loss of and that we don't have any more loss of life. All right. We'll keep discussing life. All right. We'll keep discussing life. All right. We'll keep discussing uh this ongoing breaking news story in uh this ongoing breaking news story in uh this ongoing breaking news story in the coming weeks. But back to our zone the coming weeks. But back to our zone the coming weeks. But back to our zone of excellence, AI and tech, OpenAI and of excellence, AI and tech, OpenAI and of excellence, AI and tech, OpenAI and Anthropic are scaling revenue and costs Anthropic are scaling revenue and costs Anthropic are scaling revenue and costs faster than we've ever seen in the faster than we've ever seen in the faster than we've ever seen in the history of well business the world. history of well business the world. history of well business the world. Revenue at these two companies growing Revenue at these two companies growing Revenue at these two companies growing gosh like unprecedented levels. Here are gosh like unprecedented levels. Here are gosh like unprecedented levels. Here are the reports and I believe your investors the reports and I believe your investors the reports and I believe your investors in both these companies. Brad Anthropic in both these companies. Brad Anthropic in both these companies. Brad Anthropic hit a $14 billion run rate last month, hit a $14 billion run rate last month, hit a $14 billion run rate last month, February. That means they have grown February. That means they have grown February. That means they have grown revenue from 1 billion uh to 14 billion revenue from 1 billion uh to 14 billion revenue from 1 billion uh to 14 billion in 14 months. They have 12x in 14 months. They have 12x in 14 months. They have 12x year-over-year. year-over-year. year-over-year. They're valued at a meager 380 billion They're valued at a meager 380 billion They're valued at a meager 380 billion uh last month. This feels like a bargain uh last month. This feels like a bargain uh last month. This feels like a bargain given the growth. Openai ended 2025 at given the growth. Openai ended 2025 at given the growth. Openai ended 2025 at 20 billion annualized run rate and 20 billion annualized run rate and 20 billion annualized run rate and they've grown revenue from 2 billion to they've grown revenue from 2 billion to they've grown revenue from 2 billion to 20 billion in 24 months. They're valued 20 billion in 24 months. They're valued 20 billion in 24 months. They're valued at 840 billion last month. Uh, and man, at 840 billion last month. Uh, and man, at 840 billion last month. Uh, and man, it looks like Sam Alman has Daario in it looks like Sam Alman has Daario in it looks like Sam Alman has Daario in the rearview mirror. He could get lapped the rearview mirror. He could get lapped the rearview mirror. He could get lapped any moment. Lots of debate. any moment. Lots of debate. any moment. Lots of debate. >> Where did you find this? What the hell >> Where did you find this? What the hell >> Where did you find this? What the hell is this? is this? is this? >> That one? I made that. This is Daario >> That one? I made that. This is Daario >> That one? I made that. This is Daario closing in. closing in. closing in. >> What is that? A velociraptor? What is >> What is that? A velociraptor? What is >> What is that? A velociraptor? What is that? that? that? >> It's the famous scene from Jurassic >> It's the famous scene from Jurassic >> It's the famous scene from Jurassic Park. Park. Park. >> Oh, wow. But I mean, I don't think >> Oh, wow. But I mean, I don't think >> Oh, wow. But I mean, I don't think anybody expected Daario to be coming anybody expected Daario to be coming anybody expected Daario to be coming around the bend this fast, but he's around the bend this fast, but he's around the bend this fast, but he's right behind apparently and they're right behind apparently and they're right behind apparently and they're winning obviously the businessto winning obviously the businessto winning obviously the businessto business side of the business. The J business side of the business. The J business side of the business. The J curve on these companies is insane. Uh curve on these companies is insane. Uh curve on these companies is insane. Uh 250, 500 billion. Who knows what's get 250, 500 billion. Who knows what's get 250, 500 billion. Who knows what's get gets invested before these companies gets invested before these companies gets invested before these companies reach profitability, Brad, but you're reach profitability, Brad, but you're reach profitability, Brad, but you're invested in these two companies. invested in these two companies. invested in these two companies. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Unless you sold when uh Sam Wman told >> Unless you sold when uh Sam Wman told >> Unless you sold when uh Sam Wman told you he would buy his shares back on the you he would buy his shares back on the you he would buy his shares back on the famous BG2 episode. I don't think you famous BG2 episode. I don't think you famous BG2 episode. I don't think you sold it. sold it. sold it. >> I bought a lot more since then, Jason. I >> I bought a lot more since then, Jason. I >> I bought a lot more since then, Jason. I bought a lot more. bought a lot more. bought a lot more. >> Fantastic. That's important information >> Fantastic. That's important information >> Fantastic. That's important information for us to have. Quick question for you. for us to have. Quick question for you. for us to have. Quick question for you. Number one, what's a better buy here? Number one, what's a better buy here? Number one, what's a better buy here? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Uh, Anthropic at 380, OpenAI at 840. Uh, >> Uh, Anthropic at 380, OpenAI at 840. Uh, >> Uh, Anthropic at 380, OpenAI at 840. Uh, and then I think people want to know if and then I think people want to know if and then I think people want to know if these companies are going to go public. these companies are going to go public. these companies are going to go public. What you, if you think they should go What you, if you think they should go What you, if you think they should go public, what is the chance of that public, what is the chance of that public, what is the chance of that happening? Take those questions however happening? Take those questions however happening? Take those questions however you like. you like. you like. >> Well, I mean, listen, you know, Love >> Well, I mean, listen, you know, Love >> Well, I mean, listen, you know, Love Your Children equally. They're both Your Children equally. They're both Your Children equally. They're both incredible companies. Anthropic incredible companies. Anthropic incredible companies. Anthropic unquestionably has a lot of financial unquestionably has a lot of financial unquestionably has a lot of financial momentum, you know, and OpenAI is seeing momentum, you know, and OpenAI is seeing momentum, you know, and OpenAI is seeing a lot of momentum themselves, right? But a lot of momentum themselves, right? But a lot of momentum themselves, right? But the single most important question this the single most important question this the single most important question this year, right, was would AI revenue show year, right, was would AI revenue show year, right, was would AI revenue show up? And just 60 days ago, 90 days ago, up? And just 60 days ago, 90 days ago, up? And just 60 days ago, 90 days ago, there was tremendous skepticism. No way there was tremendous skepticism. No way there was tremendous skepticism. No way all of these infrastructure investments all of these infrastructure investments all of these infrastructure investments were going to pay off. There's no were going to pay off. There's no were going to pay off. There's no incremental revenue coming out of AI, incremental revenue coming out of AI, incremental revenue coming out of AI, including many of our friends. But in including many of our friends. But in including many of our friends. But in February, we had in January and February, we had in January and February, we had in January and February, we really had kind of a February, we really had kind of a February, we really had kind of a nuclear moment, right? The splitting of nuclear moment, right? The splitting of nuclear moment, right? The splitting of the atom moment. I mean, we had a $6 the atom moment. I mean, we had a $6 the atom moment. I mean, we had a $6 billion month out of Enthropic in billion month out of Enthropic in billion month out of Enthropic in February, right? What widely reported. February, right? What widely reported. February, right? What widely reported. Okay, let that set in for a second, Okay, let that set in for a second, Okay, let that set in for a second, right? $6 billion in a month, and it was right? $6 billion in a month, and it was right? $6 billion in a month, and it was only a 28 day month. Okay, that's more only a 28 day month. Okay, that's more only a 28 day month. Okay, that's more revenue than the annual revenue of data revenue than the annual revenue of data revenue than the annual revenue of data bricks and snowflake that are two of the bricks and snowflake that are two of the bricks and snowflake that are two of the greatest software companies of all time greatest software companies of all time greatest software companies of all time after 12 years, right? They could do in after 12 years, right? They could do in after 12 years, right? They could do in the first four or five months of this the first four or five months of this the first four or five months of this year the total revenue of SpaceX this year the total revenue of SpaceX this year the total revenue of SpaceX this year. year. year. >> What is driving that? Just explain to >> What is driving that? Just explain to >> What is driving that? Just explain to the audience what's driving it. Is it the audience what's driving it. Is it the audience what's driving it. Is it token use? Is it clawed subscriptions? token use? Is it clawed subscriptions? token use? Is it clawed subscriptions? >> We crossed a threshold with Opus 4.6, >> We crossed a threshold with Opus 4.6, >> We crossed a threshold with Opus 4.6, right? And we saw it again with chat GBT right? And we saw it again with chat GBT right? And we saw it again with chat GBT 5.4 before where the models and the 5.4 before where the models and the 5.4 before where the models and the agents on top of them whether it's cloud agents on top of them whether it's cloud agents on top of them whether it's cloud codeex chatbt they're no longer codeex chatbt they're no longer codeex chatbt they're no longer competing with IT budgets they're now competing with IT budgets they're now competing with IT budgets they're now augmenting labor they're competing with augmenting labor they're competing with augmenting labor they're competing with labor budgets you could not possibly labor budgets you could not possibly labor budgets you could not possibly have a $6 billion month it is impossible have a $6 billion month it is impossible have a $6 billion month it is impossible to do that by displacing IT budgets to do that by displacing IT budgets to do that by displacing IT budgets millions of other companies across millions of other companies across millions of other companies across America say oh my god let's spin up America say oh my god let's spin up America say oh my god let's spin up these agents and have them do things for these agents and have them do things for these agents and have them do things for us and we're willing to pay for it us and we're willing to pay for it us and we're willing to pay for it because the product of that effort is because the product of that effort is because the product of that effort is worth the money to And the revenue and worth the money to And the revenue and worth the money to And the revenue and the usage momentum, I will tell you in the usage momentum, I will tell you in the usage momentum, I will tell you in the month of March continues and it only the month of March continues and it only the month of March continues and it only accelerates from here. As Kevin Wild has accelerates from here. As Kevin Wild has accelerates from here. As Kevin Wild has said, the models in the agents are the said, the models in the agents are the said, the models in the agents are the dumbest today they will ever be. Right? dumbest today they will ever be. Right? dumbest today they will ever be. Right? We're in the early innings of compute We're in the early innings of compute We're in the early innings of compute and algorithmic uh capability. And so, and algorithmic uh capability. And so, and algorithmic uh capability. And so, you know, like that to me is the you know, like that to me is the you know, like that to me is the observation at this moment. Should they observation at this moment. Should they observation at this moment. Should they go public? I've said yes, they should go go public? I've said yes, they should go go public? I've said yes, they should go public for several reasons. There's tons public for several reasons. There's tons public for several reasons. There's tons of institutional demand. They need cheap of institutional demand. They need cheap of institutional demand. They need cheap access to money to continue to build out access to money to continue to build out access to money to continue to build out uh the compute they need to support. uh the compute they need to support. uh the compute they need to support. They they there is more compute They they there is more compute They they there is more compute constraint in these businesses this very constraint in these businesses this very constraint in these businesses this very day than they've had any time in the day than they've had any time in the day than they've had any time in the last 3 years. So they need access to the last 3 years. So they need access to the last 3 years. So they need access to the capital. And then finally, I think you capital. And then finally, I think you capital. And then finally, I think you have to have the retail investor in the have to have the retail investor in the have to have the retail investor in the game. These are two of the most game. These are two of the most game. These are two of the most important companies in the history of important companies in the history of important companies in the history of capitalism in the history of America. capitalism in the history of America. capitalism in the history of America. It's destabilizing not to have them It's destabilizing not to have them It's destabilizing not to have them public. You know, Jensen said last week public. You know, Jensen said last week public. You know, Jensen said last week that he expected the 40 billion he that he expected the 40 billion he that he expected the 40 billion he recently invested in these two companies recently invested in these two companies recently invested in these two companies would be his last money in because they would be his last money in because they would be his last money in because they were both going to go public. He thought were both going to go public. He thought were both going to go public. He thought they he said they would both go public they he said they would both go public they he said they would both go public this year. I think that, you know, this year. I think that, you know, this year. I think that, you know, they're they're preparing and heading they're they're preparing and heading they're they're preparing and heading down that path, you know, and and down that path, you know, and and down that path, you know, and and listen, I want to get some of these listen, I want to get some of these listen, I want to get some of these shares in the accounts of all these kids shares in the accounts of all these kids shares in the accounts of all these kids that were opening up because they're that were opening up because they're that were opening up because they're really really important companies to the really really important companies to the really really important companies to the future of the American economy. Shim, future of the American economy. Shim, future of the American economy. Shim, you had some insight into the quality, you had some insight into the quality, you had some insight into the quality, durability of this revenue. There's not durability of this revenue. There's not durability of this revenue. There's not a single good example that we can find a single good example that we can find a single good example that we can find of sustained positive of sustained positive of sustained positive margin expansion and impact of AI inside margin expansion and impact of AI inside margin expansion and impact of AI inside of a true corporate enterprise that is of a true corporate enterprise that is of a true corporate enterprise that is not right now a small test. There's not. not right now a small test. There's not. not right now a small test. There's not. >> So where does six billion come from? >> So where does six billion come from? >> So where does six billion come from? because everybody has to show up to because everybody has to show up to because everybody has to show up to their board and have an AI checkbox and their board and have an AI checkbox and their board and have an AI checkbox and everybody is thousands and thousands of everybody is thousands and thousands of everybody is thousands and thousands of companies. And when you have tens of companies. And when you have tens of companies. And when you have tens of thousands of companies as customers thousands of companies as customers thousands of companies as customers paying $200 plus a month, it's not that paying $200 plus a month, it's not that paying $200 plus a month, it's not that hard to show up with that kind of hard to show up with that kind of hard to show up with that kind of revenue. The real question is the revenue. The real question is the revenue. The real question is the following. If you take you use the data following. If you take you use the data following. If you take you use the data bricks and snowflake example, if you bricks and snowflake example, if you bricks and snowflake example, if you look at the companies that use that look at the companies that use that look at the companies that use that software, software, software, those companies generate enormous those companies generate enormous those companies generate enormous revenues and enormous margins and these revenues and enormous margins and these revenues and enormous margins and these products are in critical production products are in critical production products are in critical production workflows that underly those revenues workflows that underly those revenues workflows that underly those revenues and profits. That is just not true with and profits. That is just not true with and profits. That is just not true with AI today. We have all kinds of claims, AI today. We have all kinds of claims, AI today. We have all kinds of claims, but we are still experimenting. but we are still experimenting. but we are still experimenting. Why are we experimenting? Because we Why are we experimenting? Because we Why are we experimenting? Because we know it's important, but we don't yet know it's important, but we don't yet know it's important, but we don't yet really know what to do. You can't just really know what to do. You can't just really know what to do. You can't just slot this in to a critical workflow in slot this in to a critical workflow in slot this in to a critical workflow in healthcare and all of a sudden show up healthcare and all of a sudden show up healthcare and all of a sudden show up where if you make a misdiagnosis or if where if you make a misdiagnosis or if where if you make a misdiagnosis or if you make a a misccharacterization of a you make a a misccharacterization of a you make a a misccharacterization of a procedure, you can get fined and go to procedure, you can get fined and go to procedure, you can get fined and go to jail. The companies that are in jail. The companies that are in jail. The companies that are in healthcare don't do that. If you're in healthcare don't do that. If you're in healthcare don't do that. If you're in financial services and you make a financial services and you make a financial services and you make a mistake about somebody's portfolio or mistake about somebody's portfolio or mistake about somebody's portfolio or you make a misallocation and you point you make a misallocation and you point you make a misallocation and you point to a model, you will get sued and you to a model, you will get sued and you to a model, you will get sued and you will be in trouble. None of these things will be in trouble. None of these things will be in trouble. None of these things have transitioned from it's interesting, have transitioned from it's interesting, have transitioned from it's interesting, it's experimental to it's the core it's experimental to it's the core it's experimental to it's the core critical operational workflow. critical operational workflow. critical operational workflow. >> Just interesting. >> Just interesting. >> Just interesting. >> There will be a transition in revenue >> There will be a transition in revenue >> There will be a transition in revenue quality when that happens. A great quality when that happens. A great quality when that happens. A great example of this is Amazon. Why does example of this is Amazon. Why does example of this is Amazon. Why does Amazon issue an edict that says you Amazon issue an edict that says you Amazon issue an edict that says you cannot use this stuff inside of AWS cannot use this stuff inside of AWS cannot use this stuff inside of AWS unless a human now reviews and approves unless a human now reviews and approves unless a human now reviews and approves it? Because what happened? They had it? Because what happened? They had it? Because what happened? They had three or four sev one faults from a three or four sev one faults from a three or four sev one faults from a bunch of code that was written by agents bunch of code that was written by agents bunch of code that was written by agents that brought down AWS. Now look, I've that brought down AWS. Now look, I've that brought down AWS. Now look, I've told you I love AWS for one reason, told you I love AWS for one reason, told you I love AWS for one reason, because it's hyper reliable. I hate AWS because it's hyper reliable. I hate AWS because it's hyper reliable. I hate AWS for the same reason that hyper for the same reason that hyper for the same reason that hyper reliability comes at enormous cost. I reliability comes at enormous cost. I reliability comes at enormous cost. I pay it, but I pay it to never have a SE pay it, but I pay it to never have a SE pay it, but I pay it to never have a SE one. The reason they have 12 9s of one. The reason they have 12 9s of one. The reason they have 12 9s of accuracy is because it's humans and accuracy is because it's humans and accuracy is because it's humans and deterministic code that never fails. It deterministic code that never fails. It deterministic code that never fails. It doesn't mean that two companies can't doesn't mean that two companies can't doesn't mean that two companies can't get to 20, 30, 40 billion of revenue. get to 20, 30, 40 billion of revenue. get to 20, 30, 40 billion of revenue. What it means is we have to be honest. What it means is we have to be honest. What it means is we have to be honest. This is an industry that's early. We are This is an industry that's early. We are This is an industry that's early. We are all figuring it out. There's a lot of all figuring it out. There's a lot of all figuring it out. There's a lot of test budgets that are going at it. It test budgets that are going at it. It test budgets that are going at it. It will slowly and methodically emerge into will slowly and methodically emerge into will slowly and methodically emerge into production. But let's not oversell what production. But let's not oversell what production. But let's not oversell what this moment is. this moment is. this moment is. >> Okay, Brad, I want to give you a well- >> Okay, Brad, I want to give you a well- >> Okay, Brad, I want to give you a well- constructed question here to respond and constructed question here to respond and constructed question here to respond and then Sax, we'll go to you if you have then Sax, we'll go to you if you have then Sax, we'll go to you if you have some input. Of the 20 billion, how much some input. Of the 20 billion, how much some input. Of the 20 billion, how much of it do you think is experimental? What of it do you think is experimental? What of it do you think is experimental? What percentage is experimental versus percentage is experimental versus percentage is experimental versus production? Bas strip out the cons the production? Bas strip out the cons the production? Bas strip out the cons the consumer spending for because like you consumer spending for because like you consumer spending for because like you know that's half of it, right? know that's half of it, right? know that's half of it, right? >> Okay, so let's I'll I'll put aside the >> Okay, so let's I'll I'll put aside the >> Okay, so let's I'll I'll put aside the consu S. Great idea. We'll put the consu S. Great idea. We'll put the consu S. Great idea. We'll put the consumer subscriptions aside. they're consumer subscriptions aside. they're consumer subscriptions aside. they're obviously getting value or they wouldn't obviously getting value or they wouldn't obviously getting value or they wouldn't be subscribing, but it's like Netflix. be subscribing, but it's like Netflix. be subscribing, but it's like Netflix. >> And by the way, for that where it can be >> And by the way, for that where it can be >> And by the way, for that where it can be extremely faulty and there's no SLA that extremely faulty and there's no SLA that extremely faulty and there's no SLA that you're giving, you're giving, you're giving, >> it's a phenomenal. These are phenomenal >> it's a phenomenal. These are phenomenal >> it's a phenomenal. These are phenomenal products. products. products. >> Yes. For 20 bucks a month, well worth >> Yes. For 20 bucks a month, well worth >> Yes. For 20 bucks a month, well worth it. And consumers have decided it's it. And consumers have decided it's it. And consumers have decided it's worth it. So, I think we're in agreement worth it. So, I think we're in agreement worth it. So, I think we're in agreement there. there. there. >> And also for the individual engineer, of >> And also for the individual engineer, of >> And also for the individual engineer, of which I suspect there's a few million, which I suspect there's a few million, which I suspect there's a few million, who get to pay $200 a month and have who get to pay $200 a month and have who get to pay $200 a month and have their company subsidize it. The company their company subsidize it. The company their company subsidize it. The company knows that these costs are being knows that these costs are being knows that these costs are being incurred, but there is no tick and tying incurred, but there is no tick and tying incurred, but there is no tick and tying at the end of it where then you review at the end of it where then you review at the end of it where then you review the code in a different way because you the code in a different way because you the code in a different way because you you you're worried that there's you you're worried that there's you you're worried that there's hallucinations as Amazon just hallucinations as Amazon just hallucinations as Amazon just demonstrated. demonstrated. demonstrated. >> Yeah, there's a story in the there's a >> Yeah, there's a story in the there's a >> Yeah, there's a story in the there's a story in the FT about Amazon having some story in the FT about Amazon having some story in the FT about Amazon having some blast radius from some computerenerated blast radius from some computerenerated blast radius from some computerenerated AI and they're putting controls in AI and they're putting controls in AI and they're putting controls in place. We'll put that in the show notes. place. We'll put that in the show notes. place. We'll put that in the show notes. Brad, let's get to the specific question Brad, let's get to the specific question Brad, let's get to the specific question I asked. of the tens of billions of I asked. of the tens of billions of I asked. of the tens of billions of dollars in revenue between the two dollars in revenue between the two dollars in revenue between the two companies that's not consumer, what companies that's not consumer, what companies that's not consumer, what percentage do you think is production percentage do you think is production percentage do you think is production quality versus experimental to Chimat's quality versus experimental to Chimat's quality versus experimental to Chimat's point? point? point? >> Yeah, I mean listen and I've been, you >> Yeah, I mean listen and I've been, you >> Yeah, I mean listen and I've been, you know, I coined the phrase experimental know, I coined the phrase experimental know, I coined the phrase experimental run rate revenue, right, versus annual run rate revenue, right, versus annual run rate revenue, right, versus annual recurring revenue, right? Like I think recurring revenue, right? Like I think recurring revenue, right? Like I think it's I think Chimas's point is a really it's I think Chimas's point is a really it's I think Chimas's point is a really important one. As an investor, I have to important one. As an investor, I have to important one. As an investor, I have to discern what's repeating, right? What's discern what's repeating, right? What's discern what's repeating, right? What's recurring and what's not. What I would recurring and what's not. What I would recurring and what's not. What I would suggest is of course there's a lot of suggest is of course there's a lot of suggest is of course there's a lot of experimentation because these things experimentation because these things experimentation because these things haven't been around that long. But I haven't been around that long. But I haven't been around that long. But I suspect right that Palunteer, the US suspect right that Palunteer, the US suspect right that Palunteer, the US government, the US military, Nvidia, and government, the US military, Nvidia, and government, the US military, Nvidia, and a lot of other major enterprises would a lot of other major enterprises would a lot of other major enterprises would argue they've gone full production. In argue they've gone full production. In argue they've gone full production. In fact, it's existential to the wartime fact, it's existential to the wartime fact, it's existential to the wartime effort going on in Iran right now. That effort going on in Iran right now. That effort going on in Iran right now. That doesn't sound to me like experimental as doesn't sound to me like experimental as doesn't sound to me like experimental as much as it sounds like production much as it sounds like production much as it sounds like production capability. And I will tell you what capability. And I will tell you what capability. And I will tell you what will prove this one way or the other is will prove this one way or the other is will prove this one way or the other is in the month of March, do revenues in the month of March, do revenues in the month of March, do revenues continue and go up? Right? Do they continue and go up? Right? Do they continue and go up? Right? Do they experimentation go on forever? That's experimentation go on forever? That's experimentation go on forever? That's not true. That's not true. The not true. That's not true. The not true. That's not true. The experimentation goes on forever. That experimentation goes on forever. That experimentation goes on forever. That sounds like recurring. sounds like recurring. sounds like recurring. >> We've scratched the surface of of the >> We've scratched the surface of of the >> We've scratched the surface of of the number of companies that even know how number of companies that even know how number of companies that even know how to adopt AI. So these numbers will go to to adopt AI. So these numbers will go to to adopt AI. So these numbers will go to the stratosphere. I'm not debating that. the stratosphere. I'm not debating that. the stratosphere. I'm not debating that. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> Look, I'm on the same side of the bed as >> Look, I'm on the same side of the bed as >> Look, I'm on the same side of the bed as you are. I want these numbers to keep you are. I want these numbers to keep you are. I want these numbers to keep going to the moon. I'm just being much going to the moon. I'm just being much going to the moon. I'm just being much more circumspect and honest with myself more circumspect and honest with myself more circumspect and honest with myself to say I see it on the ground. I sit on to say I see it on the ground. I sit on to say I see it on the ground. I sit on top of these models. I am paying these top of these models. I am paying these top of these models. I am paying these models millions of dollars a year. I am. models millions of dollars a year. I am. models millions of dollars a year. I am. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> And what I'm telling you is my revenues >> And what I'm telling you is my revenues >> And what I'm telling you is my revenues don't go up faster than their revenues. don't go up faster than their revenues. don't go up faster than their revenues. I'm consuming more tokens every single I'm consuming more tokens every single I'm consuming more tokens every single day. Do I get more economic output? I am day. Do I get more economic output? I am day. Do I get more economic output? I am not. And I would say that my team is at not. And I would say that my team is at not. And I would say that my team is at the leading edge. And so I suspect a the leading edge. And so I suspect a the leading edge. And so I suspect a Fortune 1000 company is steps behind my Fortune 1000 company is steps behind my Fortune 1000 company is steps behind my team. And if I am spending triple every team. And if I am spending triple every team. And if I am spending triple every 3 months and not seeing my revenues 3 months and not seeing my revenues 3 months and not seeing my revenues tripling, I suspect these other tripling, I suspect these other tripling, I suspect these other companies are in a similar situation. companies are in a similar situation. companies are in a similar situation. >> I'd finalize it. But ask it on Friday >> I'd finalize it. But ask it on Friday >> I'd finalize it. But ask it on Friday when you're with Michael Dell because when you're with Michael Dell because when you're with Michael Dell because I've had this conversation recently with I've had this conversation recently with I've had this conversation recently with Michael Dell and Michael said a year ago Michael Dell and Michael said a year ago Michael Dell and Michael said a year ago companies weren't seeing ROI. Today companies weren't seeing ROI. Today companies weren't seeing ROI. Today they're seeing very big ROI in their AI they're seeing very big ROI in their AI they're seeing very big ROI in their AI investments. But I think that's the investments. But I think that's the investments. But I think that's the question on the table. But question on the table. But question on the table. But >> what companies? Which companies? Of >> what companies? Which companies? Of >> what companies? Which companies? Of course the second course the second course the second of course is seeing an ROI. Sachs were of course is seeing an ROI. Sachs were of course is seeing an ROI. Sachs were agreeing. This is experimental in large agreeing. This is experimental in large agreeing. This is experimental in large part and this is a new tool. So by part and this is a new tool. So by part and this is a new tool. So by definition you have to experiment before definition you have to experiment before definition you have to experiment before you put it in production. What's your you put it in production. What's your you put it in production. What's your take on this grand debate? How much of take on this grand debate? How much of take on this grand debate? How much of this revenue is experimental versus this revenue is experimental versus this revenue is experimental versus real? real? real? >> Well look when you're talking about >> Well look when you're talking about >> Well look when you're talking about enterprise revenue, what you're really enterprise revenue, what you're really enterprise revenue, what you're really talking about is coding assistance. talking about is coding assistance. talking about is coding assistance. That's been the breakout use case. It's That's been the breakout use case. It's That's been the breakout use case. It's really the first big breakout use case really the first big breakout use case really the first big breakout use case on the enterprise side. The consumer on the enterprise side. The consumer on the enterprise side. The consumer side's been more of like you know side's been more of like you know side's been more of like you know research and writing that kind of stuff research and writing that kind of stuff research and writing that kind of stuff the chat bots but enterprise has all the chat bots but enterprise has all the chat bots but enterprise has all been about coding assistance. My sense been about coding assistance. My sense been about coding assistance. My sense is that the demand for code is very is that the demand for code is very is that the demand for code is very scalable. Software engineers has always scalable. Software engineers has always scalable. Software engineers has always been an area of the economy where been an area of the economy where been an area of the economy where companies have never been able to hire companies have never been able to hire companies have never been able to hire enough. Even in Silicon Valley which is enough. Even in Silicon Valley which is enough. Even in Silicon Valley which is the most attractive place for software the most attractive place for software the most attractive place for software engineers to work. We've never been able engineers to work. We've never been able engineers to work. We've never been able to recruit and attract enough of them. to recruit and attract enough of them. to recruit and attract enough of them. The rate limiting factor on the progress The rate limiting factor on the progress The rate limiting factor on the progress of every startup I've ever invested in of every startup I've ever invested in of every startup I've ever invested in is not having enough engineers to code is not having enough engineers to code is not having enough engineers to code up the product roadmap. And then you up the product roadmap. And then you up the product roadmap. And then you look at the rest of the economy, the look at the rest of the economy, the look at the rest of the economy, the Fortune 500 and so forth and so on. They Fortune 500 and so forth and so on. They Fortune 500 and so forth and so on. They have hardly been able to recruit have hardly been able to recruit have hardly been able to recruit software engineers at all because software engineers at all because software engineers at all because they've all gone to Silicon Valley. So I they've all gone to Silicon Valley. So I they've all gone to Silicon Valley. So I think you're dealing with a part of the think you're dealing with a part of the think you're dealing with a part of the economy where there's always been a economy where there's always been a economy where there's always been a massive supply shortage. And I don't massive supply shortage. And I don't massive supply shortage. And I don't know what the natural limit on that is, know what the natural limit on that is, know what the natural limit on that is, but my sense is that there's a but my sense is that there's a but my sense is that there's a tremendous latent demand for the ability tremendous latent demand for the ability tremendous latent demand for the ability to generate code in large quantities, to generate code in large quantities, to generate code in large quantities, create new products. You know, as the create new products. You know, as the create new products. You know, as the cost of code goes down, as the coding cost of code goes down, as the coding cost of code goes down, as the coding assistants get better, you can code up assistants get better, you can code up assistants get better, you can code up new types of products. And then, of new types of products. And then, of new types of products. And then, of course, it's going to lead to agents, course, it's going to lead to agents, course, it's going to lead to agents, which is another way of basically using which is another way of basically using which is another way of basically using the code that gets generated. So, my the code that gets generated. So, my the code that gets generated. So, my sense is that this could be very sense is that this could be very sense is that this could be very scalable. I don't know where it it taps scalable. I don't know where it it taps scalable. I don't know where it it taps out exactly. Where I think Chimatha is out exactly. Where I think Chimatha is out exactly. Where I think Chimatha is right is that I think there is a change right is that I think there is a change right is that I think there is a change management aspect to this in Fortune 500 management aspect to this in Fortune 500 management aspect to this in Fortune 500 companies for example and they haven't companies for example and they haven't companies for example and they haven't really wrapped their heads around how really wrapped their heads around how really wrapped their heads around how exactly they're going to use this. exactly they're going to use this. exactly they're going to use this. There's a McKenzie study that showed There's a McKenzie study that showed There's a McKenzie study that showed that a lot of these pilot projects in that a lot of these pilot projects in that a lot of these pilot projects in Fortune 500 companies were experimental. Fortune 500 companies were experimental. Fortune 500 companies were experimental. A lot of them were proving not to be A lot of them were proving not to be A lot of them were proving not to be successful. So I do think like as you go successful. So I do think like as you go successful. So I do think like as you go beyond coding into you know company beyond coding into you know company beyond coding into you know company transformation things like that it transformation things like that it transformation things like that it becomes a little bit more speculative. becomes a little bit more speculative. becomes a little bit more speculative. That's not to say it won't happen. I That's not to say it won't happen. I That's not to say it won't happen. I think it will happen. I'm actually I'm think it will happen. I'm actually I'm think it will happen. I'm actually I'm bullish. But I do think that bullish. But I do think that bullish. But I do think that >> we're still waiting to see what the >> we're still waiting to see what the >> we're still waiting to see what the breakout use cases beyond coding will breakout use cases beyond coding will breakout use cases beyond coding will be. Probably agents will be the next big be. Probably agents will be the next big be. Probably agents will be the next big one. But I think Brad's right that one. But I think Brad's right that one. But I think Brad's right that that's big enough to see, you know, this that's big enough to see, you know, this that's big enough to see, you know, this scale for a while because, you know, the scale for a while because, you know, the scale for a while because, you know, the thing about the thing about code is thing about the thing about code is thing about the thing about code is you're paying for code on a metered you're paying for code on a metered you're paying for code on a metered basis right now. You're paying per basis right now. You're paying per basis right now. You're paying per token, which is kind of an amazing deal token, which is kind of an amazing deal token, which is kind of an amazing deal for companies, right? Because before for companies, right? Because before for companies, right? Because before they had to go through this recruiting they had to go through this recruiting they had to go through this recruiting process to find engineers, source them, process to find engineers, source them, process to find engineers, source them, vet them, you know, keep them happy, vet them, you know, keep them happy, vet them, you know, keep them happy, give them all the perks, the kind bars, give them all the perks, the kind bars, give them all the perks, the kind bars, all, you know, uh, and so to be able to all, you know, uh, and so to be able to all, you know, uh, and so to be able to buy code on a metered basis as the cost buy code on a metered basis as the cost buy code on a metered basis as the cost per token keeps going down. per token keeps going down. per token keeps going down. >> It's kind of metered before. It was just >> It's kind of metered before. It was just >> It's kind of metered before. It was just metered on people. Now, now to your metered on people. Now, now to your metered on people. Now, now to your point, it's it's metered. It's metered point, it's it's metered. It's metered point, it's it's metered. It's metered in a different way, but it's still in a different way, but it's still in a different way, but it's still metered. metered. metered. >> Yeah. And let me just, you know, you use >> Yeah. And let me just, you know, you use >> Yeah. And let me just, you know, you use this term labor displacement, Brad. this term labor displacement, Brad. this term labor displacement, Brad. That's like the one part where I might That's like the one part where I might That's like the one part where I might disagree with you is because there was disagree with you is because there was disagree with you is because there was such a shortage. such a shortage. such a shortage. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Of software engineers. I think when >> Of software engineers. I think when >> Of software engineers. I think when people hear the word labor or term labor people hear the word labor or term labor people hear the word labor or term labor displacement, they might displacement, they might displacement, they might >> start to think that 6 billion of >> start to think that 6 billion of >> start to think that 6 billion of incremental revenue means 6 billion of incremental revenue means 6 billion of incremental revenue means 6 billion of layoffs. No. layoffs. No. layoffs. No. >> And I don't think it does. And and the >> And I don't think it does. And and the >> And I don't think it does. And and the way to to thread that needle is the fact way to to thread that needle is the fact way to to thread that needle is the fact that we were artificially constrained in that we were artificially constrained in that we were artificially constrained in the number of software engineers and how the number of software engineers and how the number of software engineers and how they could be used and how rapidly they they could be used and how rapidly they they could be used and how rapidly they could be acquired and all that kind of could be acquired and all that kind of could be acquired and all that kind of stuff. So to be able to now turn that on stuff. So to be able to now turn that on stuff. So to be able to now turn that on like electricity and that's kind of what like electricity and that's kind of what like electricity and that's kind of what we're talking about. we're talking about. we're talking about. >> Exactly. >> Exactly. >> Exactly. >> Is just such a huge >> Is just such a huge >> Is just such a huge >> game changer and unlock for the whole >> game changer and unlock for the whole >> game changer and unlock for the whole economy. economy. economy. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> And that's what I think is really >> And that's what I think is really >> And that's what I think is really exciting about it. exciting about it. exciting about it. >> It's augmenting it's augmenting human >> It's augmenting it's augmenting human >> It's augmenting it's augmenting human labor, right? We're not at a place yet labor, right? We're not at a place yet labor, right? We're not at a place yet where it's displacing. And this is the where it's displacing. And this is the where it's displacing. And this is the definition of productivity gains. definition of productivity gains. definition of productivity gains. >> I'm going to make just uh two quick >> I'm going to make just uh two quick >> I'm going to make just uh two quick points here. The place to look for this points here. The place to look for this points here. The place to look for this actually moving from experimental into actually moving from experimental into actually moving from experimental into production is not not at big companies. production is not not at big companies. production is not not at big companies. Big companies are actively resisting Big companies are actively resisting Big companies are actively resisting this. Management in big companies will this. Management in big companies will this. Management in big companies will resist it because it means lowering resist it because it means lowering resist it because it means lowering headcount and it means the person who headcount and it means the person who headcount and it means the person who implements it might actually implement implements it might actually implement implements it might actually implement themselves out of a job. So that is the themselves out of a job. So that is the themselves out of a job. So that is the natural resistance you'll see in big natural resistance you'll see in big natural resistance you'll see in big companies. That's not where to look for companies. That's not where to look for companies. That's not where to look for adoption of new tech. adoption of new tech. adoption of new tech. >> That's not why it's happening. That's >> That's not why it's happening. That's >> That's not why it's happening. That's not why not why not why >> let me finish and then you can you can >> let me finish and then you can you can >> let me finish and then you can you can counter it. counter it. counter it. >> Startups are the place to look at this >> Startups are the place to look at this >> Startups are the place to look at this and that's where I am on the ground. And and that's where I am on the ground. And and that's where I am on the ground. And what I'm seeing there is that startups what I'm seeing there is that startups what I'm seeing there is that startups are using this in production for their are using this in production for their are using this in production for their legal work for their marketing for SDRs legal work for their marketing for SDRs legal work for their marketing for SDRs uh for their accounting reviewing legal uh for their accounting reviewing legal uh for their accounting reviewing legal documents. This is all uh work that documents. This is all uh work that documents. This is all uh work that would normally they would hire would normally they would hire would normally they would hire consultants for outsource uh or make consultants for outsource uh or make consultants for outsource uh or make hires for. And what I'm seeing on the hires for. And what I'm seeing on the hires for. And what I'm seeing on the ground is it's production ready in ground is it's production ready in ground is it's production ready in startups who are using it in those startups who are using it in those startups who are using it in those categories. HR as well, accounting, categories. HR as well, accounting, categories. HR as well, accounting, marketing, all of that, all that marketing, all of that, all that marketing, all of that, all that blocking and tackling, all those chores blocking and tackling, all those chores blocking and tackling, all those chores are being done currently with these LLMs are being done currently with these LLMs are being done currently with these LLMs and they're doing it in production and and they're doing it in production and and they're doing it in production and they're doing it at scale. Just a quick they're doing it at scale. Just a quick they're doing it at scale. Just a quick second point here. Here's the J curve. second point here. Here's the J curve. second point here. Here's the J curve. And this is the question I think we'll And this is the question I think we'll And this is the question I think we'll get to in our next segment. When does get to in our next segment. When does get to in our next segment. When does this become a profitable business? If uh this become a profitable business? If uh this become a profitable business? If uh and you asked this of Sam in that famous and you asked this of Sam in that famous and you asked this of Sam in that famous clip on the BG2 podcast, RIP BG2, here clip on the BG2 podcast, RIP BG2, here clip on the BG2 podcast, RIP BG2, here you go. The LLM industry, Jacob, I just you go. The LLM industry, Jacob, I just you go. The LLM industry, Jacob, I just asked Claude to make this for me. Um, if asked Claude to make this for me. Um, if asked Claude to make this for me. Um, if you have 500 billion, I think you would you have 500 billion, I think you would you have 500 billion, I think you would agree it's probably going to be around agree it's probably going to be around agree it's probably going to be around that number, Brad, invested in all of that number, Brad, invested in all of that number, Brad, invested in all of this. And then this. And then this. And then >> more a lot more. >> more a lot more. >> more a lot more. >> Okay. So, five billion is an >> Okay. So, five billion is an >> Okay. So, five billion is an underestimate here. And then when do we underestimate here. And then when do we underestimate here. And then when do we actually see these large language model actually see these large language model actually see these large language model companies hit profitability in a in a companies hit profitability in a in a companies hit profitability in a in a calendar year? It took Tesla, Uber, calendar year? It took Tesla, Uber, calendar year? It took Tesla, Uber, Amazon, you know, decade plus in each of Amazon, you know, decade plus in each of Amazon, you know, decade plus in each of those cases those cases those cases >> to win back their investment. 10 >> to win back their investment. 10 >> to win back their investment. 10 billion. billion. billion. >> This is a really good chart. Here's the >> This is a really good chart. Here's the >> This is a really good chart. Here's the precise math on this. So, I am building precise math on this. So, I am building precise math on this. So, I am building a 1 gawatt data center in Arizona. a 1 gawatt data center in Arizona. a 1 gawatt data center in Arizona. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> When I green lit that project, I thought >> When I green lit that project, I thought >> When I green lit that project, I thought it was going to be a four or five it was going to be a four or five it was going to be a four or five billion investment. I was like, okay, billion investment. I was like, okay, billion investment. I was like, okay, whatever. Then it went to 10. Then it whatever. Then it went to 10. Then it whatever. Then it went to 10. Then it went to 15. Then it went to 20. And now went to 15. Then it went to 20. And now went to 15. Then it went to 20. And now it's upwards of $50 billion for the it's upwards of $50 billion for the it's upwards of $50 billion for the powered shell, for all the land, for all powered shell, for all the land, for all powered shell, for all the land, for all the permits, then for all the the permits, then for all the the permits, then for all the infrastructure, all the people, all of infrastructure, all the people, all of infrastructure, all the people, all of it. Okay. Sarah Frier said, I think it it. Okay. Sarah Frier said, I think it it. Okay. Sarah Frier said, I think it was about a year ago, maybe less than a was about a year ago, maybe less than a was about a year ago, maybe less than a year ago, that for them, every gigawatt year ago, that for them, every gigawatt year ago, that for them, every gigawatt is about 10 billion of annual revenue. is about 10 billion of annual revenue. is about 10 billion of annual revenue. So if you think about that J curve, So if you think about that J curve, So if you think about that J curve, Jason, really the way to think about it Jason, really the way to think about it Jason, really the way to think about it is look, energy equals intelligence. For is look, energy equals intelligence. For is look, energy equals intelligence. For every gigawatt that they're trying to every gigawatt that they're trying to every gigawatt that they're trying to spend, they have a fiveyear payback is spend, they have a fiveyear payback is spend, they have a fiveyear payback is roughly what it means just to get to roughly what it means just to get to roughly what it means just to get to break even. And then year six, seven, break even. And then year six, seven, break even. And then year six, seven, and eight will be where the profit is. and eight will be where the profit is. and eight will be where the profit is. Now, how do you shrink the Jaker? You Now, how do you shrink the Jaker? You Now, how do you shrink the Jaker? You have better silicon. We're going to see have better silicon. We're going to see have better silicon. We're going to see something from Jensen in a in a week or something from Jensen in a in a week or something from Jensen in a in a week or two that uses a bunch of the stuff that two that uses a bunch of the stuff that two that uses a bunch of the stuff that we partnered with him at Grocon on. we partnered with him at Grocon on. we partnered with him at Grocon on. There'll be other people. There'll be There'll be other people. There'll be There'll be other people. There'll be open source. So, all those things can open source. So, all those things can open source. So, all those things can shrink the depth and the surface area of shrink the depth and the surface area of shrink the depth and the surface area of that JC curve so that you can get out of that JC curve so that you can get out of that JC curve so that you can get out of it faster. But right now that that thing it faster. But right now that that thing it faster. But right now that that thing is roughly accurate which is it's about is roughly accurate which is it's about is roughly accurate which is it's about 50 billion per gigawatt and it's about a 50 billion per gigawatt and it's about a 50 billion per gigawatt and it's about a five to six year payback just to get five to six year payback just to get five to six year payback just to get into the money and then it's about 10 into the money and then it's about 10 into the money and then it's about 10 billion a year and the technology billion a year and the technology billion a year and the technology industry has to do something to make industry has to do something to make industry has to do something to make this better. Could I though this better. Could I though this better. Could I though take a step back and give you just a take a step back and give you just a take a step back and give you just a different framing of all of this different framing of all of this different framing of all of this >> please? >> please? >> please? I think the big thing that we're I think the big thing that we're I think the big thing that we're debating is actually something we've debating is actually something we've debating is actually something we've seen in every other technology trend seen in every other technology trend seen in every other technology trend when it started to get some really when it started to get some really when it started to get some really meaningful traction. So in the first meaningful traction. So in the first meaningful traction. So in the first generation of the internet when you generation of the internet when you generation of the internet when you started to see e-commerce and all these started to see e-commerce and all these started to see e-commerce and all these other business models then in the second other business models then in the second other business models then in the second big wave of the internet around the move big wave of the internet around the move big wave of the internet around the move to mobile and the move to social and to mobile and the move to social and to mobile and the move to social and then now we're seeing this big wave then now we're seeing this big wave then now we're seeing this big wave around AI and I think what happens is in around AI and I think what happens is in around AI and I think what happens is in step one step one step one entrepreneurs entrepreneurs entrepreneurs are AB testing are AB testing are AB testing what it takes to raise money. Okay, what it takes to raise money. Okay, what it takes to raise money. Okay, that's step one. that's step one. that's step one. And I think what has happened is that at And I think what has happened is that at And I think what has happened is that at least some parts of the AI ecosystem least some parts of the AI ecosystem least some parts of the AI ecosystem have decided that this crazy have decided that this crazy have decided that this crazy scary doomerism is the best way to raise scary doomerism is the best way to raise scary doomerism is the best way to raise money where every now and then they come money where every now and then they come money where every now and then they come out and they say all the jobs will be out and they say all the jobs will be out and they say all the jobs will be destroyed anthropic you know Daario says destroyed anthropic you know Daario says destroyed anthropic you know Daario says that this thing is sentient and that this thing is sentient and that this thing is sentient and investors are like okay here's 10 investors are like okay here's 10 investors are like okay here's 10 billion here's 50 billion here's 100 billion here's 50 billion here's 100 billion here's 50 billion here's 100 billion but then the second step happens billion but then the second step happens billion but then the second step happens they get the money, they start to do the they get the money, they start to do the they get the money, they start to do the training, they start selling, and then training, they start selling, and then training, they start selling, and then the investors are like, "Hey, where's the investors are like, "Hey, where's the investors are like, "Hey, where's the revenue?" And so then they start the revenue?" And so then they start the revenue?" And so then they start selling everywhere. selling everywhere. selling everywhere. And then if you see in the Department of And then if you see in the Department of And then if you see in the Department of War example, all of a sudden you War example, all of a sudden you War example, all of a sudden you flip-flop, you become sort of an flip-flop, you become sort of an flip-flop, you become sort of an unserious dilotant like partner to the unserious dilotant like partner to the unserious dilotant like partner to the American government. They're like, American government. They're like, American government. They're like, "We're going to boot you out. That's "We're going to boot you out. That's "We're going to boot you out. That's billions of revenue gone." And what billions of revenue gone." And what billions of revenue gone." And what happens? Those same investors that gave happens? Those same investors that gave happens? Those same investors that gave billions of dollars are like, "Hey, hold billions of dollars are like, "Hey, hold billions of dollars are like, "Hey, hold on a second. That's absolutely not on a second. That's absolutely not on a second. That's absolutely not allowed. You need to conform and get allowed. You need to conform and get allowed. You need to conform and get back on track." And so what does Dario back on track." And so what does Dario back on track." And so what does Dario do? He flip-flops and he's like, "Oh, do? He flip-flops and he's like, "Oh, do? He flip-flops and he's like, "Oh, I'm really sorry. I didn't mean to. I'm really sorry. I didn't mean to. I'm really sorry. I didn't mean to. Let's sort of make good." All of that to Let's sort of make good." All of that to Let's sort of make good." All of that to me is an industry that's still in its me is an industry that's still in its me is an industry that's still in its very early phases and still figuring out very early phases and still figuring out very early phases and still figuring out what its place in society is. So, what what its place in society is. So, what what its place in society is. So, what is the problem? The problem is the is the problem? The problem is the is the problem? The problem is the following two clips, and I'll just have following two clips, and I'll just have following two clips, and I'll just have Nick play these, and I'd love your guys' Nick play these, and I'd love your guys' Nick play these, and I'd love your guys' reaction. The one thing though that I reaction. The one thing though that I reaction. The one thing though that I think even now is underestimated by all think even now is underestimated by all think even now is underestimated by all actors in industry and including in actors in industry and including in actors in industry and including in Silicon Valley is how disruptive these Silicon Valley is how disruptive these Silicon Valley is how disruptive these technologies are. If you are going to technologies are. If you are going to technologies are. If you are going to disrupt the economic and therefore disrupt the economic and therefore disrupt the economic and therefore political power significantly of one political power significantly of one political power significantly of one party space, highly educated, often party space, highly educated, often party space, highly educated, often female voters who vote mostly Democrat female voters who vote mostly Democrat female voters who vote mostly Democrat and military and workingclass people who and military and workingclass people who and military and workingclass people who do not feel supported. and you feel like do not feel supported. and you feel like do not feel supported. and you feel like that's you believe that that's going to that's you believe that that's going to that's you believe that that's going to work out politically, you're in an work out politically, you're in an work out politically, you're in an insane asylum like that you cannot have insane asylum like that you cannot have insane asylum like that you cannot have a this technology disrupts humanity's a this technology disrupts humanity's a this technology disrupts humanity's trained largely democratic voters uh and trained largely democratic voters uh and trained largely democratic voters uh and and makes the economic power less and and makes the economic power less and and makes the economic power less and increases the power economic power of increases the power economic power of increases the power economic power of vocationally trained workingclass often vocationally trained workingclass often vocationally trained workingclass often male uh voters. and and and so these male uh voters. and and and so these male uh voters. and and and so these disruptions are going to disrupt every disruptions are going to disrupt every disruptions are going to disrupt every aspect of our society. And it to make aspect of our society. And it to make aspect of our society. And it to make this work, we have to come to an this work, we have to come to an this work, we have to come to an agreement of what it is we're going to agreement of what it is we're going to agreement of what it is we're going to do with the technology. How are we going do with the technology. How are we going do with the technology. How are we going to explain to people who are likely to explain to people who are likely to explain to people who are likely going to have less good and less going to have less good and less going to have less good and less interesting jobs from their perspective? interesting jobs from their perspective? interesting jobs from their perspective? And how is it that we are going and by And how is it that we are going and by And how is it that we are going and by the way on the military thing, these the way on the military thing, these the way on the military thing, these technologies are dangerous society. the technologies are dangerous society. the technologies are dangerous society. the only justification you could possibly only justification you could possibly only justification you could possibly have would be that if we don't do it, have would be that if we don't do it, have would be that if we don't do it, our adversaries and uh will do it and we our adversaries and uh will do it and we our adversaries and uh will do it and we will be subject to their rule of law. So will be subject to their rule of law. So will be subject to their rule of law. So you if you decouple this from the you if you decouple this from the you if you decouple this from the support of the military, you're going to support of the military, you're going to support of the military, you're going to have an enormous problem explaining to have an enormous problem explaining to have an enormous problem explaining to the American people why is it that we're the American people why is it that we're the American people why is it that we're absorbing the risk of disrupting the absorbing the risk of disrupting the absorbing the risk of disrupting the very fabric of our society, including very fabric of our society, including very fabric of our society, including the most powerful the most powerful the most powerful parts of our society. uh if it's not parts of our society. uh if it's not parts of our society. uh if it's not because it's about maintaining our because it's about maintaining our because it's about maintaining our ability to be American in the near term ability to be American in the near term ability to be American in the near term and and and long term. and and and long term. and and and long term. >> Now watch Sam's reaction. Fundamentally, >> Now watch Sam's reaction. Fundamentally, >> Now watch Sam's reaction. Fundamentally, our business and I think the business of our business and I think the business of our business and I think the business of every other model provider is going to every other model provider is going to every other model provider is going to look like selling tokens. But we see a look like selling tokens. But we see a look like selling tokens. But we see a future where intelligence is a utility future where intelligence is a utility future where intelligence is a utility like electricity or water and people buy like electricity or water and people buy like electricity or water and people buy it from us um on a meter and use it for it from us um on a meter and use it for it from us um on a meter and use it for whatever they want to use it for. So if whatever they want to use it for. So if whatever they want to use it for. So if you take those three messaging veins on you take those three messaging veins on you take those three messaging veins on a spectrum, one is we have a sentient a spectrum, one is we have a sentient a spectrum, one is we have a sentient super god. We're the only ones that can super god. We're the only ones that can super god. We're the only ones that can protect you from it, but you know your protect you from it, but you know your protect you from it, but you know your days are numbered. That's Daario. Alex, days are numbered. That's Daario. Alex, days are numbered. That's Daario. Alex, which is, hey, hold on a second. You which is, hey, hold on a second. You which is, hey, hold on a second. You can't have it both ways. You can't both can't have it both ways. You can't both can't have it both ways. You can't both say it on the one hand and then try to say it on the one hand and then try to say it on the one hand and then try to run the fabric of society and flip it. run the fabric of society and flip it. run the fabric of society and flip it. You need to be much more circumspect. You need to be much more circumspect. You need to be much more circumspect. And then Sam's, which is we want to sell And then Sam's, which is we want to sell And then Sam's, which is we want to sell tokens as a service. tokens as a service. tokens as a service. I think the point is that this industry I think the point is that this industry I think the point is that this industry right now that revenue traction if right now that revenue traction if right now that revenue traction if anything else has distracted people from anything else has distracted people from anything else has distracted people from actually getting on the same page and actually getting on the same page and actually getting on the same page and being much more methodical and much more being much more methodical and much more being much more methodical and much more reliable and trustworthy in explaining reliable and trustworthy in explaining reliable and trustworthy in explaining all of this and managing the expansion all of this and managing the expansion all of this and managing the expansion of this. And so what I would say is all of this. And so what I would say is all of this. And so what I would say is all of this fundraising gobbledegook has of this fundraising gobbledegook has of this fundraising gobbledegook has actually created this breathlessness actually created this breathlessness actually created this breathlessness that is not useful and isn't helping. that is not useful and isn't helping. that is not useful and isn't helping. And I would say there needs to be a lot And I would say there needs to be a lot And I would say there needs to be a lot more seriousness by these folks to more seriousness by these folks to more seriousness by these folks to actually run this business thoughtfully. actually run this business thoughtfully. actually run this business thoughtfully. You can't be a dilotant. You can't You can't be a dilotant. You can't You can't be a dilotant. You can't flip-flop. You can't pressure test AB flip-flop. You can't pressure test AB flip-flop. You can't pressure test AB test this kind of messaging in public. test this kind of messaging in public. test this kind of messaging in public. But I understand why you're doing it But I understand why you're doing it But I understand why you're doing it because the stakes are so high. You're because the stakes are so high. You're because the stakes are so high. You're playing this enormous poker game. But I playing this enormous poker game. But I playing this enormous poker game. But I think we need to do a better job of think we need to do a better job of think we need to do a better job of explaining all this to people because explaining all this to people because explaining all this to people because right now my end of this is look at this right now my end of this is look at this right now my end of this is look at this chart. This is now the result of those chart. This is now the result of those chart. This is now the result of those three messages. Here is where AI is. It three messages. Here is where AI is. It three messages. Here is where AI is. It is slightly above the Democratic party is slightly above the Democratic party is slightly above the Democratic party and an autocratic state. That's where AI and an autocratic state. That's where AI and an autocratic state. That's where AI is. ICE is more popular than AI. is. ICE is more popular than AI. is. ICE is more popular than AI. So So So >> not very popular. >> not very popular. >> not very popular. >> So to me, this is really at the crux of >> So to me, this is really at the crux of >> So to me, this is really at the crux of this where we are not really being this where we are not really being this where we are not really being honest. It would be much better if we honest. It would be much better if we honest. It would be much better if we said soberly, there's a lot of said soberly, there's a lot of said soberly, there's a lot of experimenting. This revenue is great, experimenting. This revenue is great, experimenting. This revenue is great, but we don't really know what's real. but we don't really know what's real. but we don't really know what's real. We're going to try to figure it out. We're going to try to figure it out. We're going to try to figure it out. We're going to work methodically. We're going to work methodically. We're going to work methodically. There's a lot of regulated industries. There's a lot of regulated industries. There's a lot of regulated industries. We're going to work within those. We're We're going to work within those. We're We're going to work within those. We're not going to flout the law and the not going to flout the law and the not going to flout the law and the rules. Lensure will still mean rules. Lensure will still mean rules. Lensure will still mean something. That's a way better, something. That's a way better, something. That's a way better, thoughtful, mature message. thoughtful, mature message. thoughtful, mature message. And what do you think? And what do you think? And what do you think? >> And rant. Great rant. Uh Brad, does the >> And rant. Great rant. Uh Brad, does the >> And rant. Great rant. Uh Brad, does the industry have a PR problem? Obviously, industry have a PR problem? Obviously, industry have a PR problem? Obviously, these recent surveys and especially these recent surveys and especially these recent surveys and especially comparing them to China where people see comparing them to China where people see comparing them to China where people see AI as abundance and like this incredible AI as abundance and like this incredible AI as abundance and like this incredible new technology they want to embrace. new technology they want to embrace. new technology they want to embrace. Here, people are scared. People are Here, people are scared. People are Here, people are scared. People are scared they're going to lose their job. scared they're going to lose their job. scared they're going to lose their job. People are scared about wealth u People are scared about wealth u People are scared about wealth u disparity. The rich get richer, the poor disparity. The rich get richer, the poor disparity. The rich get richer, the poor get poorer. There's a lot of fear here get poorer. There's a lot of fear here get poorer. There's a lot of fear here in the United States. What can our in the United States. What can our in the United States. What can our industry do to turn this around in terms industry do to turn this around in terms industry do to turn this around in terms of communication from the big companies? of communication from the big companies? of communication from the big companies? They don't seem to be communicating in They don't seem to be communicating in They don't seem to be communicating in any coordinated fashion and and they any coordinated fashion and and they any coordinated fashion and and they obviously are scaring the out of obviously are scaring the out of obviously are scaring the out of the public. the public. the public. >> Yeah. No, listen, I think it's uh I >> Yeah. No, listen, I think it's uh I >> Yeah. No, listen, I think it's uh I think it's a fair rant and a fair point. think it's a fair rant and a fair point. think it's a fair rant and a fair point. At the start of the industrial At the start of the industrial At the start of the industrial revolution at the start, you know, in revolution at the start, you know, in revolution at the start, you know, in the in the late 1800s, we had similar the in the late 1800s, we had similar the in the late 1800s, we had similar social responses to innovations that social responses to innovations that social responses to innovations that were occurring. We in fact had some were occurring. We in fact had some were occurring. We in fact had some violent clashes. We had demonstrations violent clashes. We had demonstrations violent clashes. We had demonstrations in the street. We had the entire robber in the street. We had the entire robber in the street. We had the entire robber baron movement you know so class warfare baron movement you know so class warfare baron movement you know so class warfare and worse is you know has come with and worse is you know has come with and worse is you know has come with other re you know kind of industrial other re you know kind of industrial other re you know kind of industrial changes of this magnitude so it doesn't changes of this magnitude so it doesn't changes of this magnitude so it doesn't surprise me that we have a lot of surprise me that we have a lot of surprise me that we have a lot of anxiety by people that they may lose anxiety by people that they may lose anxiety by people that they may lose their job and I think there are people their job and I think there are people their job and I think there are people out there who are kind of forecasting out there who are kind of forecasting out there who are kind of forecasting into the future in ways that are scary into the future in ways that are scary into the future in ways that are scary to you know the average person who's to you know the average person who's to you know the average person who's who's listening to this and I don't who's listening to this and I don't who's listening to this and I don't think that's particularly helpful so think that's particularly helpful so think that's particularly helpful so could we do a better job messaging no could we do a better job messaging no could we do a better job messaging no doubt about it. But if I just rewind to doubt about it. But if I just rewind to doubt about it. But if I just rewind to kind of where we started, I actually kind of where we started, I actually kind of where we started, I actually think the industry is um you know this think the industry is um you know this think the industry is um you know this is going to be a pivotal year for the is going to be a pivotal year for the is going to be a pivotal year for the industry to demonstrate right how this industry to demonstrate right how this industry to demonstrate right how this is really beneficial for humanity. I is really beneficial for humanity. I is really beneficial for humanity. I think we're going to be able to think we're going to be able to think we're going to be able to demonstrate that it's very beneficial demonstrate that it's very beneficial demonstrate that it's very beneficial from a health care perspective, from a from a health care perspective, from a from a health care perspective, from a drug discovery perspective, from an drug discovery perspective, from an drug discovery perspective, from an education perspective, etc. But we need education perspective, etc. But we need education perspective, etc. But we need to have a coordinated effort because to have a coordinated effort because to have a coordinated effort because Chimas right is deeply unpopular in the Chimas right is deeply unpopular in the Chimas right is deeply unpopular in the country. I happen to be on the country. I happen to be on the country. I happen to be on the optimistic side of this. 70% of the jobs optimistic side of this. 70% of the jobs optimistic side of this. 70% of the jobs that exist in the United States today that exist in the United States today that exist in the United States today did not exist 40 years ago. Right. did not exist 40 years ago. Right. did not exist 40 years ago. Right. Right. We've gone through the digital Right. We've gone through the digital Right. We've gone through the digital disruption that put a lot of people out disruption that put a lot of people out disruption that put a lot of people out of work. But the abundance and the and of work. But the abundance and the and of work. But the abundance and the and the recreation of new jobs, right, the recreation of new jobs, right, the recreation of new jobs, right, expanded the pie for for largely expanded the pie for for largely expanded the pie for for largely everyone. I think that will be the case everyone. I think that will be the case everyone. I think that will be the case here. If you listen to Daario, he says here. If you listen to Daario, he says here. If you listen to Daario, he says the concern is that the disruption the concern is that the disruption the concern is that the disruption occurs at a faster and and and and occurs at a faster and and and and occurs at a faster and and and and bigger rate and so that we can't keep up bigger rate and so that we can't keep up bigger rate and so that we can't keep up with kind of that replacement. I think with kind of that replacement. I think with kind of that replacement. I think that's another fine point. But if we that's another fine point. But if we that's another fine point. But if we just go back to where we started the just go back to where we started the just go back to where we started the conversation, which was are these good conversation, which was are these good conversation, which was are these good investments, right? Do investments, right? Do investments, right? Do >> That's not the conversation. No, of >> That's not the conversation. No, of >> That's not the conversation. No, of course they're good investments. Of course they're good investments. Of course they're good investments. Of course you're going to make money. course you're going to make money. course you're going to make money. >> No, no, no. That's not what it's about. >> No, no, no. That's not what it's about. >> No, no, no. That's not what it's about. >> That's not it. >> That's not it. >> That's not it. >> He asked the question. You made the >> He asked the question. You made the >> He asked the question. You made the argument. Jason asked the question, argument. Jason asked the question, argument. Jason asked the question, right? Are these companies simply right? Are these companies simply right? Are these companies simply selling do tokens at a loss? Right? And selling do tokens at a loss? Right? And selling do tokens at a loss? Right? And we moved into this. we moved into this. we moved into this. >> No, no, no. They're they're selling at a >> No, no, no. They're they're selling at a >> No, no, no. They're they're selling at a profit. I'm buying them and losing profit. I'm buying them and losing profit. I'm buying them and losing money. money. money. >> Right. >> Right. >> Right. >> In the 1849 gold rush, >> In the 1849 gold rush, >> In the 1849 gold rush, >> Anthropic and OpenAI and all of these >> Anthropic and OpenAI and all of these >> Anthropic and OpenAI and all of these model makers are selling the pick and model makers are selling the pick and model makers are selling the pick and shovel in the gold rush. shovel in the gold rush. shovel in the gold rush. >> I am buying it and I'm trying to pan for >> I am buying it and I'm trying to pan for >> I am buying it and I'm trying to pan for gold. But as with the gold rush, most of gold. But as with the gold rush, most of gold. But as with the gold rush, most of these companies will go out of business. these companies will go out of business. these companies will go out of business. And all I'm saying is if we are really And all I'm saying is if we are really And all I'm saying is if we are really circumspect and honest, there is still circumspect and honest, there is still circumspect and honest, there is still way more to figure out than has been way more to figure out than has been way more to figure out than has been figured out. This is not a solved figured out. This is not a solved figured out. This is not a solved problem. And I think we it would behoove problem. And I think we it would behoove problem. And I think we it would behoove everybody to just tell the truth about everybody to just tell the truth about everybody to just tell the truth about this. It would be way better to be this. It would be way better to be this. It would be way better to be honest. This is not figured out. honest. This is not figured out. honest. This is not figured out. >> I would say I think the data the cards >> I would say I think the data the cards >> I would say I think the data the cards that are being turned on the table move that are being turned on the table move that are being turned on the table move me in the exact opposite direction. me in the exact opposite direction. me in the exact opposite direction. >> Okay, let me get Sachs involved and then >> Okay, let me get Sachs involved and then >> Okay, let me get Sachs involved and then I'll give my take. Sax, you have any I'll give my take. Sax, you have any I'll give my take. Sax, you have any thoughts here? Well, I I have some thoughts here? Well, I I have some thoughts here? Well, I I have some thoughts on the question you asked about thoughts on the question you asked about thoughts on the question you asked about is the industry doing a good job with is the industry doing a good job with is the industry doing a good job with PR. I think the answer is clearly no. I PR. I think the answer is clearly no. I PR. I think the answer is clearly no. I think they are scaring the be Jesus out think they are scaring the be Jesus out think they are scaring the be Jesus out of the public and that's why the of the public and that's why the of the public and that's why the popularity is right down there with I popularity is right down there with I popularity is right down there with I don't know what was it Iran. I mean it's don't know what was it Iran. I mean it's don't know what was it Iran. I mean it's pretty I think we're a little more pretty I think we're a little more pretty I think we're a little more popular than than Iran. But um but look, popular than than Iran. But um but look, popular than than Iran. But um but look, >> Iran Iran's had 100 years to it up. >> Iran Iran's had 100 years to it up. >> Iran Iran's had 100 years to it up. So we've only had two. So we've only had two. So we've only had two. >> Yeah. Or 47 anyway. >> Yeah. Or 47 anyway. >> Yeah. Or 47 anyway. >> Yeah. Iran's had 47 years to We've only >> Yeah. Iran's had 47 years to We've only >> Yeah. Iran's had 47 years to We've only had two. But it is very much a had two. But it is very much a had two. But it is very much a US-specific problem. If you look at US-specific problem. If you look at US-specific problem. If you look at data, sentiment data across countries. data, sentiment data across countries. data, sentiment data across countries. What you'll see is that other countries What you'll see is that other countries What you'll see is that other countries are much more optimistic about AI than are much more optimistic about AI than are much more optimistic about AI than the US. I think the Stanford did a study the US. I think the Stanford did a study the US. I think the Stanford did a study on AI optimism. They simply asked the on AI optimism. They simply asked the on AI optimism. They simply asked the question, do you think AI is going to be question, do you think AI is going to be question, do you think AI is going to be more beneficial than harmful? Something more beneficial than harmful? Something more beneficial than harmful? Something like 80% of people in China said yes. In like 80% of people in China said yes. In like 80% of people in China said yes. In the US, it was in the 30s and it might the US, it was in the 30s and it might the US, it was in the 30s and it might be even lower now. And it's not just be even lower now. And it's not just be even lower now. And it's not just China and the US. you see across Asian China and the US. you see across Asian China and the US. you see across Asian countries, they tend to be pretty countries, they tend to be pretty countries, they tend to be pretty optimistic and then the US and Western optimistic and then the US and Western optimistic and then the US and Western Europe tend to be pretty pessimistic Europe tend to be pretty pessimistic Europe tend to be pretty pessimistic about it. I think that's less about the about it. I think that's less about the about it. I think that's less about the reality of AI and more about our media reality of AI and more about our media reality of AI and more about our media environment and who influences it. environment and who influences it. environment and who influences it. Obviously, you have the influence of Obviously, you have the influence of Obviously, you have the influence of Hollywood. It's created a lot of Hollywood. It's created a lot of Hollywood. It's created a lot of dystopian films about AI. You've got the dystopian films about AI. You've got the dystopian films about AI. You've got the fact that like we talked about these fact that like we talked about these fact that like we talked about these CEOs are doing a horrible job and they CEOs are doing a horrible job and they CEOs are doing a horrible job and they keep talking about putting everyone out keep talking about putting everyone out keep talking about putting everyone out of business. I mean, this has I think of business. I mean, this has I think of business. I mean, this has I think been not accidental. Well, I would say been not accidental. Well, I would say been not accidental. Well, I would say some of these CEOs are speaking this way some of these CEOs are speaking this way some of these CEOs are speaking this way because they're not very good at comms. because they're not very good at comms. because they're not very good at comms. I think others are actually doing it I think others are actually doing it I think others are actually doing it because they see a strategy there. You because they see a strategy there. You because they see a strategy there. You know, they're going for a regulatory know, they're going for a regulatory know, they're going for a regulatory capture. capture. capture. >> Such a good point. It's delusions of >> Such a good point. It's delusions of >> Such a good point. It's delusions of grandeur plus they're positioning their grandeur plus they're positioning their grandeur plus they're positioning their companies. Yeah. companies. Yeah. companies. Yeah. >> It could be for financing reasons like >> It could be for financing reasons like >> It could be for financing reasons like you've mentioned Schmoth. like they want you've mentioned Schmoth. like they want you've mentioned Schmoth. like they want to tap the stuff for fundraising, but to tap the stuff for fundraising, but to tap the stuff for fundraising, but also I think that some of it is to also I think that some of it is to also I think that some of it is to create a regulatory backlash that they create a regulatory backlash that they create a regulatory backlash that they can then control. You know, create a can then control. You know, create a can then control. You know, create a licensing scheme or permissioning licensing scheme or permissioning licensing scheme or permissioning scheme. And that's a big part of it, scheme. And that's a big part of it, scheme. And that's a big part of it, too. And then I think you just have the too. And then I think you just have the too. And then I think you just have the fact that in our media environment, the fact that in our media environment, the fact that in our media environment, the scare stories are the ones that get a scare stories are the ones that get a scare stories are the ones that get a lot more attention than the heartwarming lot more attention than the heartwarming lot more attention than the heartwarming stories. You know, if it if it bleeds, stories. You know, if it if it bleeds, stories. You know, if it if it bleeds, it leads type thing. So you can just see it leads type thing. So you can just see it leads type thing. So you can just see how unpopular it is for all of these how unpopular it is for all of these how unpopular it is for all of these reasons. reasons. reasons. >> You know, New York is about to outlaw >> You know, New York is about to outlaw >> You know, New York is about to outlaw medical and legal advice from AI medical and legal advice from AI medical and legal advice from AI chatbots, which by the way, that's chatbots, which by the way, that's chatbots, which by the way, that's probably the the most obviously probably the the most obviously probably the the most obviously >> valuable and highest ROI thing for for a >> valuable and highest ROI thing for for a >> valuable and highest ROI thing for for a consumer consumer consumer people the worst. Hurts poorest people people the worst. Hurts poorest people people the worst. Hurts poorest people the worst. But do you understand like if the worst. But do you understand like if the worst. But do you understand like if you're say a professional association you're say a professional association you're say a professional association that sees it as your job to protect your that sees it as your job to protect your that sees it as your job to protect your industry from disruption, you might industry from disruption, you might industry from disruption, you might actually want to spread FUD about AI in actually want to spread FUD about AI in actually want to spread FUD about AI in order to then seek those protections order to then seek those protections order to then seek those protections through your state legislature. through your state legislature. through your state legislature. >> Well, if you have companies that are >> Well, if you have companies that are >> Well, if you have companies that are fanning those flames and those companies fanning those flames and those companies fanning those flames and those companies are the ones in the industry, it's are the ones in the industry, it's are the ones in the industry, it's making your job even easier. making your job even easier. making your job even easier. >> Well, just think about the poorest >> Well, just think about the poorest >> Well, just think about the poorest person. they they can't afford a lawyer person. they they can't afford a lawyer person. they they can't afford a lawyer and they want to do their own research and they want to do their own research and they want to do their own research and they research the legal stuff to in and they research the legal stuff to in and they research the legal stuff to in order to fight an eviction or there are order to fight an eviction or there are order to fight an eviction or there are poor people who don't have a primary poor people who don't have a primary poor people who don't have a primary care doctor. They're not insured and care doctor. They're not insured and care doctor. They're not insured and they find a way to deal with, you know, they find a way to deal with, you know, they find a way to deal with, you know, some medical issue they're havinging. some medical issue they're havinging. some medical issue they're havinging. This is the greatest thing. It's the le This is the greatest thing. It's the le This is the greatest thing. It's the le it's a it levels the playing field for it's a it levels the playing field for it's a it levels the playing field for poor people or people without resources. poor people or people without resources. poor people or people without resources. So, this is the craziest legislation So, this is the craziest legislation So, this is the craziest legislation ever. New York City is a disgrace. I ever. New York City is a disgrace. I ever. New York City is a disgrace. I give them out of the week. No, the pro give them out of the week. No, the pro give them out of the week. No, the pro the problem is very specifically that the problem is very specifically that the problem is very specifically that these people that rely on these models these people that rely on these models these people that rely on these models to make a healthc care diagnosis or get to make a healthc care diagnosis or get to make a healthc care diagnosis or get a legal opinion to help improve their a legal opinion to help improve their a legal opinion to help improve their lives, the makers of those tools are lives, the makers of those tools are lives, the makers of those tools are telling everybody that they're about to telling everybody that they're about to telling everybody that they're about to bring death and destruction upon the bring death and destruction upon the bring death and destruction upon the economy and the world. So then the economy and the world. So then the economy and the world. So then the lawyers and the doctors are like, "Well, lawyers and the doctors are like, "Well, lawyers and the doctors are like, "Well, then maybe we should slow this down." then maybe we should slow this down." then maybe we should slow this down." and they tell their lobbyists who then and they tell their lobbyists who then and they tell their lobbyists who then go to New York and then tell the New go to New York and then tell the New go to New York and then tell the New York legislators, hey, uh, these guys York legislators, hey, uh, these guys York legislators, hey, uh, these guys are like trying to wreak havoc and then are like trying to wreak havoc and then are like trying to wreak havoc and then they're like, oh yeah, well then maybe they're like, oh yeah, well then maybe they're like, oh yeah, well then maybe we should shut it down. That is the loop we should shut it down. That is the loop we should shut it down. That is the loop that's happening. that's happening. that's happening. >> That was the Bernie Sanders moment this >> That was the Bernie Sanders moment this >> That was the Bernie Sanders moment this week where he said we ought to have a week where he said we ought to have a week where he said we ought to have a moratorum on all data centers being moratorum on all data centers being moratorum on all data centers being built in the United States because AI is built in the United States because AI is built in the United States because AI is dangerous. That was his message and that dangerous. That was his message and that dangerous. That was his message and that is what he's pushing. And actually that is what he's pushing. And actually that is what he's pushing. And actually that brings me to another point which is if brings me to another point which is if brings me to another point which is if you look closely at Bernie Sanders you look closely at Bernie Sanders you look closely at Bernie Sanders messaging, one of the talking points he messaging, one of the talking points he messaging, one of the talking points he used was literally verbatim from Future used was literally verbatim from Future used was literally verbatim from Future of Life Institute. Uh I think it was of Life Institute. Uh I think it was of Life Institute. Uh I think it was something about how AI is less regulated something about how AI is less regulated something about how AI is less regulated than a sandwich shop, which is just not than a sandwich shop, which is just not than a sandwich shop, which is just not true. But future of life is one of these true. But future of life is one of these true. But future of life is one of these EA funded doomer think tanks and they've EA funded doomer think tanks and they've EA funded doomer think tanks and they've got something like a billion dollars. got something like a billion dollars. got something like a billion dollars. Vitalic Butering donated $600 million of Vitalic Butering donated $600 million of Vitalic Butering donated $600 million of dog coins to to the Anyway, you've got I dog coins to to the Anyway, you've got I dog coins to to the Anyway, you've got I mean this is one really weird sort of mean this is one really weird sort of mean this is one really weird sort of quirk about our media environment is we quirk about our media environment is we quirk about our media environment is we have these EA funded think tanks with have these EA funded think tanks with have these EA funded think tanks with literally billions of dollars. You know, literally billions of dollars. You know, literally billions of dollars. You know, it's guys like Dustin Moscowitz and it's guys like Dustin Moscowitz and it's guys like Dustin Moscowitz and >> they're the Dels, they're the Democratic >> they're the Dels, they're the Democratic >> they're the Dels, they're the Democratic Socialist kind of arm. It's so weird Socialist kind of arm. It's so weird Socialist kind of arm. It's so weird that like New York is now taking the that like New York is now taking the that like New York is now taking the crown of most state from crown of most state from crown of most state from California. I don't know how this California. I don't know how this California. I don't know how this happened, but they just seem to be happened, but they just seem to be happened, but they just seem to be making every mistake possible. Yeah, but making every mistake possible. Yeah, but making every mistake possible. Yeah, but but hold on, let me just finish my point but hold on, let me just finish my point but hold on, let me just finish my point because you've got these, let's call because you've got these, let's call because you've got these, let's call them doomer think tanks funded by these them doomer think tanks funded by these them doomer think tanks funded by these EA billionaires. They have literally EA billionaires. They have literally EA billionaires. They have literally billions of dollars. You can influence a billions of dollars. You can influence a billions of dollars. You can influence a lot of public discourse with that a lot. lot of public discourse with that a lot. lot of public discourse with that a lot. >> Sure. >> Sure. >> Sure. >> And they are behind a lot of the nimi >> And they are behind a lot of the nimi >> And they are behind a lot of the nimi stuff around data centers. They've been stuff around data centers. They've been stuff around data centers. They've been spreading a lot of the FUD around data spreading a lot of the FUD around data spreading a lot of the FUD around data centers increasing your electricity centers increasing your electricity centers increasing your electricity prices, which again I think is a solved prices, which again I think is a solved prices, which again I think is a solved problem now because the users, the AI problem now because the users, the AI problem now because the users, the AI companies have agreed to pay for the companies have agreed to pay for the companies have agreed to pay for the incremental costs and stand up their own incremental costs and stand up their own incremental costs and stand up their own power generation. They've been spreading power generation. They've been spreading power generation. They've been spreading a lot of stories about water usage, a lot of stories about water usage, a lot of stories about water usage, which is just totally made up. I mean, which is just totally made up. I mean, which is just totally made up. I mean, the modern data centers recirculate the modern data centers recirculate the modern data centers recirculate water, so they don't use up water. But water, so they don't use up water. But water, so they don't use up water. But again, you've kind of got these doomer again, you've kind of got these doomer again, you've kind of got these doomer groups who are just trying to stop AI groups who are just trying to stop AI groups who are just trying to stop AI however they can. however they can. however they can. >> And they're extremely well funded and >> And they're extremely well funded and >> And they're extremely well funded and they're having a big impact. And I think they're having a big impact. And I think they're having a big impact. And I think actually this is one of the reasons why actually this is one of the reasons why actually this is one of the reasons why you're seeing in the US again that AI I you're seeing in the US again that AI I you're seeing in the US again that AI I think is it's basically the least think is it's basically the least think is it's basically the least popular thing they can pull for except popular thing they can pull for except popular thing they can pull for except for the Democratic party and Iran. And for the Democratic party and Iran. And for the Democratic party and Iran. And by the way, FLI, the Future Life by the way, FLI, the Future Life by the way, FLI, the Future Life Institute, they also fund journalism Institute, they also fund journalism Institute, they also fund journalism fellowships and endowments at fellowships and endowments at fellowships and endowments at publications. So, publications. So, publications. So, >> who probably writes negatively about AI? >> who probably writes negatively about AI? >> who probably writes negatively about AI? >> Yeah, >> Yeah, >> Yeah, >> exactly. >> exactly. >> exactly. >> Here, Sax, look at this chart. It goes >> Here, Sax, look at this chart. It goes >> Here, Sax, look at this chart. It goes back now a little bit earlier than 23, back now a little bit earlier than 23, back now a little bit earlier than 23, but I had the data accurately from 23, but I had the data accurately from 23, but I had the data accurately from 23, so we're going into the fourth year. so we're going into the fourth year. so we're going into the fourth year. About 40% of all protested data centers About 40% of all protested data centers About 40% of all protested data centers in America get cancelled. in America get cancelled. in America get cancelled. And so, in 2023, this was a non-issue. And so, in 2023, this was a non-issue. And so, in 2023, this was a non-issue. There were a few data centers that were There were a few data centers that were There were a few data centers that were protested and a few of those 40% of them protested and a few of those 40% of them protested and a few of those 40% of them I think it was literally like one or two I think it was literally like one or two I think it was literally like one or two got cancelled but then starting in 24 got cancelled but then starting in 24 got cancelled but then starting in 24 when you had this divergence of when you had this divergence of when you had this divergence of messaging or this chaotic slipshot messaging or this chaotic slipshot messaging or this chaotic slipshot messaging and it was just a fever pitch messaging and it was just a fever pitch messaging and it was just a fever pitch to raise money what you started to see to raise money what you started to see to raise money what you started to see was this fermenting of negative was this fermenting of negative was this fermenting of negative perspective by individual people on the perspective by individual people on the perspective by individual people on the ground and so in 2024 about 40% of all ground and so in 2024 about 40% of all ground and so in 2024 about 40% of all protested data centers were cancelled protested data centers were cancelled protested data centers were cancelled still a small number, you could ignore still a small number, you could ignore still a small number, you could ignore it. But last year was when the bottom it. But last year was when the bottom it. But last year was when the bottom fell out. We had about 25 data centers fell out. We had about 25 data centers fell out. We had about 25 data centers canled, about five gigawatts that got canled, about five gigawatts that got canled, about five gigawatts that got cancelled. If you use Sarah Frier's cancelled. If you use Sarah Frier's cancelled. If you use Sarah Frier's number, that's $50 billion a year of number, that's $50 billion a year of number, that's $50 billion a year of revenue, revenue, revenue, which is off the table because of what which is off the table because of what which is off the table because of what happened in 25. Now, that has happened in 25. Now, that has happened in 25. Now, that has implications to everybody. Look at the implications to everybody. Look at the implications to everybody. Look at the amount of taxes that that would actually amount of taxes that that would actually amount of taxes that that would actually raise for federal and local and state raise for federal and local and state raise for federal and local and state governments. All gone. Vanished. in 26 governments. All gone. Vanished. in 26 governments. All gone. Vanished. in 26 just at the end of February there are just at the end of February there are just at the end of February there are about a 100 data centers being protested about a 100 data centers being protested about a 100 data centers being protested which if you flow that through will mean which if you flow that through will mean which if you flow that through will mean about 40 will get cancelled and that about 40 will get cancelled and that about 40 will get cancelled and that number right now is about 7 gawatt so number right now is about 7 gawatt so number right now is about 7 gawatt so another $70 billion a year of revenue so another $70 billion a year of revenue so another $70 billion a year of revenue so just last year and this year we've taken just last year and this year we've taken just last year and this year we've taken off the table $120 billion of off the table $120 billion of off the table $120 billion of revenue per year this is a wakeup call revenue per year this is a wakeup call revenue per year this is a wakeup call that this messaging is These people are that this messaging is These people are that this messaging is These people are not doing what is right on behalf of a not doing what is right on behalf of a not doing what is right on behalf of a very nent and critical industry for very nent and critical industry for very nent and critical industry for America. There's only so much that Sachs America. There's only so much that Sachs America. There's only so much that Sachs can do, the White House can do. All can do, the White House can do. All can do, the White House can do. All these other people are kind of at the these other people are kind of at the these other people are kind of at the periphery. But if the people that are on periphery. But if the people that are on periphery. But if the people that are on the ground don't get their the ground don't get their the ground don't get their together, this is a national disaster. together, this is a national disaster. together, this is a national disaster. Just to give people a uh sense of where Just to give people a uh sense of where Just to give people a uh sense of where this is happening, almost all of these this is happening, almost all of these this is happening, almost all of these cancellations are Virginia and Indiana cancellations are Virginia and Indiana cancellations are Virginia and Indiana according to some just cursory research according to some just cursory research according to some just cursory research here. And there have been zero here. And there have been zero here. And there have been zero cancellations due to local opposition cancellations due to local opposition cancellations due to local opposition here in the great state of Texas where here in the great state of Texas where here in the great state of Texas where we have over 150 gawatts of data we have over 150 gawatts of data we have over 150 gawatts of data capacity requests. So if you want to do capacity requests. So if you want to do capacity requests. So if you want to do this, come to Texas, talk to Abbott, this, come to Texas, talk to Abbott, this, come to Texas, talk to Abbott, talk to Ted Cruz. You just CC them on talk to Ted Cruz. You just CC them on talk to Ted Cruz. You just CC them on your tweet and they'll have you to the your tweet and they'll have you to the your tweet and they'll have you to the poker game and they will greenlight it. poker game and they will greenlight it. poker game and they will greenlight it. Brad, before we move on, want to get Brad, before we move on, want to get Brad, before we move on, want to get your opinion on open source and how your opinion on open source and how your opinion on open source and how powerful it is and how powerful Apple powerful it is and how powerful Apple powerful it is and how powerful Apple silicon is getting. I'm not sure how you silicon is getting. I'm not sure how you silicon is getting. I'm not sure how you factored this in at alimter into your factored this in at alimter into your factored this in at alimter into your thinking, but this seems to me to be a thinking, but this seems to me to be a thinking, but this seems to me to be a massive headwind against the two big massive headwind against the two big massive headwind against the two big bets you have bets you have bets you have all of these open source models. We all of these open source models. We all of these open source models. We started running them picking up about started running them picking up about started running them picking up about 85% of our tokens right now and every 85% of our tokens right now and every 85% of our tokens right now and every startup I know is saying we are standing startup I know is saying we are standing startup I know is saying we are standing up our local models and we only use the up our local models and we only use the up our local models and we only use the top models, the paid ones uh when we top models, the paid ones uh when we top models, the paid ones uh when we have jobs we can't do. So I I'm just have jobs we can't do. So I I'm just have jobs we can't do. So I I'm just curious your thoughts on that and you curious your thoughts on that and you curious your thoughts on that and you can add to that the auto research can add to that the auto research can add to that the auto research project from Karpathy that came out this project from Karpathy that came out this project from Karpathy that came out this weekend for people who don't know we now weekend for people who don't know we now weekend for people who don't know we now have a group of tinkerers who are have a group of tinkerers who are have a group of tinkerers who are setting up their open clause and now setting up their open clause and now setting up their open clause and now setting up large language models and now setting up large language models and now setting up large language models and now trying to train them with this auto trying to train them with this auto trying to train them with this auto research tool. This seems like a research tool. This seems like a research tool. This seems like a parallel track that could be material. parallel track that could be material. parallel track that could be material. I'm just curious if you're monitoring it I'm just curious if you're monitoring it I'm just curious if you're monitoring it at all. at all. at all. >> I mean first I would say that uh I am >> I mean first I would say that uh I am >> I mean first I would say that uh I am very enthusiastic for open source. very enthusiastic for open source. very enthusiastic for open source. >> Okay. We see it in widespread use >> Okay. We see it in widespread use >> Okay. We see it in widespread use everywhere. But here's the interesting everywhere. But here's the interesting everywhere. But here's the interesting thing, you know, for the advanced thing, you know, for the advanced thing, you know, for the advanced companies, they're doing some like companies, they're doing some like companies, they're doing some like planning, you know, with the frontier planning, you know, with the frontier planning, you know, with the frontier labs and then they're kind of doing the labs and then they're kind of doing the labs and then they're kind of doing the execution, if you will, with the open execution, if you will, with the open execution, if you will, with the open source models. So they're running an source models. So they're running an source models. So they're running an ensemble of model strategy. But here's ensemble of model strategy. But here's ensemble of model strategy. But here's what I think's more impressive. We have what I think's more impressive. We have what I think's more impressive. We have incredible open- source models nearly on incredible open- source models nearly on incredible open- source models nearly on the frontier. And notwithstanding that, the frontier. And notwithstanding that, the frontier. And notwithstanding that, we're seeing companies like Anthropic we're seeing companies like Anthropic we're seeing companies like Anthropic add five or six billion dollars of add five or six billion dollars of add five or six billion dollars of revenue in a single month, which is revenue in a single month, which is revenue in a single month, which is extraordinary. We've never seen anything extraordinary. We've never seen anything extraordinary. We've never seen anything like it in technology. And that's in the like it in technology. And that's in the like it in technology. And that's in the face, Jason, of all this open- source face, Jason, of all this open- source face, Jason, of all this open- source usage. So, what does it tell me? It usage. So, what does it tell me? It usage. So, what does it tell me? It tells me that the TAM tells me that the TAM tells me that the TAM >> is dramatically bigger than any of us >> is dramatically bigger than any of us >> is dramatically bigger than any of us think that it is. And that, you know, think that it is. And that, you know, think that it is. And that, you know, when we when we look back on this when we when we look back on this when we when we look back on this period, period, period, >> you know, that will be the big takeaway. >> you know, that will be the big takeaway. >> you know, that will be the big takeaway. It's a takeaway with Uber, the takeaway It's a takeaway with Uber, the takeaway It's a takeaway with Uber, the takeaway with Google, the takeaway with Amazon. with Google, the takeaway with Amazon. with Google, the takeaway with Amazon. The TAM was way bigger. We've crossed an The TAM was way bigger. We've crossed an The TAM was way bigger. We've crossed an important threshold. Open source will be important threshold. Open source will be important threshold. Open source will be a part of it, but clearly the front a part of it, but clearly the front a part of it, but clearly the front Frontier Labs can do well even in the Frontier Labs can do well even in the Frontier Labs can do well even in the face of it. All right, a little face of it. All right, a little face of it. All right, a little housekeeping. The All-In Summit is housekeeping. The All-In Summit is housekeeping. The All-In Summit is coming and liquidity is uh I think it's coming and liquidity is uh I think it's coming and liquidity is uh I think it's sold out. We're about to sell out. We sold out. We're about to sell out. We sold out. We're about to sell out. We might have a couple tickets left. You might have a couple tickets left. You might have a couple tickets left. You can find both events at allin.com/events can find both events at allin.com/events can find both events at allin.com/events and all-in summit tickets if you want to and all-in summit tickets if you want to and all-in summit tickets if you want to get there quickly before they sell out get there quickly before they sell out get there quickly before they sell out September 13th, 14th, and 15th in Los September 13th, 14th, and 15th in Los September 13th, 14th, and 15th in Los Angeles. Again, Angeles. Again, Angeles. Again, uh for all the all-in listeners, we're uh for all the all-in listeners, we're uh for all the all-in listeners, we're launching a survey today. This is super launching a survey today. This is super launching a survey today. This is super important to take the all-in survey. If important to take the all-in survey. If important to take the all-in survey. If you made it to this point in the you made it to this point in the you made it to this point in the podcast, if you are an early true podcast, if you are an early true podcast, if you are an early true believer in the pod, if you're one of believer in the pod, if you're one of believer in the pod, if you're one of the uh all-in stands, we need you to the uh all-in stands, we need you to the uh all-in stands, we need you to fill out this survey. fill out this survey. fill out this survey. Allin.com/servey.allin.com Allin.com/servey.allin.com Allin.com/servey.allin.com allin.com/servey. allin.com/servey. allin.com/servey. All right, let's uh wrap up with this All right, let's uh wrap up with this All right, let's uh wrap up with this final story that went viral. The final story that went viral. The final story that went viral. The millionaire tax has hit Washington millionaire tax has hit Washington millionaire tax has hit Washington State. Howard Schultz, CEO uh longtime State. Howard Schultz, CEO uh longtime State. Howard Schultz, CEO uh longtime CEO of Starbucks CEO of Starbucks CEO of Starbucks has bailed and he's gone to Miami. has bailed and he's gone to Miami. has bailed and he's gone to Miami. >> Surfside. He's in Surfside. He He bought >> Surfside. He's in Surfside. He He bought >> Surfside. He's in Surfside. He He bought a He bought a condo in Surfside. a He bought a condo in Surfside. a He bought a condo in Surfside. >> He uh he pulled a JCO. >> He uh he pulled a JCO. >> He uh he pulled a JCO. >> He pulled a JCL. >> He pulled a JCL. >> He pulled a JCL. >> I think you mean a sexy boo. Well, yeah, >> I think you mean a sexy boo. Well, yeah, >> I think you mean a sexy boo. Well, yeah, but I was never I was never a Starbucks but I was never I was never a Starbucks but I was never I was never a Starbucks liberal before I left the state of liberal before I left the state of liberal before I left the state of California. California. California. >> Listen, I I don't know how many times I >> Listen, I I don't know how many times I >> Listen, I I don't know how many times I have to make this correction. I am a have to make this correction. I am a have to make this correction. I am a moderate. I literally voted four moderate. I literally voted four moderate. I literally voted four elections in a row for Republicans. elections in a row for Republicans. elections in a row for Republicans. People have asked me for the receipts. People have asked me for the receipts. People have asked me for the receipts. Pitakei, Giuliani, um, and Bloomberg. I Pitakei, Giuliani, um, and Bloomberg. I Pitakei, Giuliani, um, and Bloomberg. I literally for almost a decade voted literally for almost a decade voted literally for almost a decade voted exclusively Republican. Washington's exclusively Republican. Washington's exclusively Republican. Washington's millionaire tax passed this week. Here's millionaire tax passed this week. Here's millionaire tax passed this week. Here's what the tax is. People making more than what the tax is. People making more than what the tax is. People making more than $1 million a year will pay an extra 9.9% $1 million a year will pay an extra 9.9% $1 million a year will pay an extra 9.9% in tax starting in 2029. in tax starting in 2029. in tax starting in 2029. The budget center estimates the tax will The budget center estimates the tax will The budget center estimates the tax will impact 30,000 households, bring in impact 30,000 households, bring in impact 30,000 households, bring in another 4 billion uh for the state's another 4 billion uh for the state's another 4 billion uh for the state's general fund. Um the funds are supposed general fund. Um the funds are supposed general fund. Um the funds are supposed to go towards public schools, higher to go towards public schools, higher to go towards public schools, higher education, healthcare. In a huge education, healthcare. In a huge education, healthcare. In a huge coincidence, on the same day the new tax coincidence, on the same day the new tax coincidence, on the same day the new tax was passed, Howard Schultz, the was passed, Howard Schultz, the was passed, Howard Schultz, the billionaire Starbucks founder, um billionaire Starbucks founder, um billionaire Starbucks founder, um >> a huge coincidence, did you say? >> a huge coincidence, did you say? >> a huge coincidence, did you say? >> Yeah. just >> Yeah. just >> Yeah. just just unrelated stories. just unrelated stories. just unrelated stories. >> Unrelated an unrelated story. Yeah. >> Unrelated an unrelated story. Yeah. >> Unrelated an unrelated story. Yeah. Unrelated news. Unrelated news. Unrelated news. >> He will be leaving Seattle after a 44 >> He will be leaving Seattle after a 44 >> He will be leaving Seattle after a 44 year run because he found out about year run because he found out about year run because he found out about these incredible Cuban. these incredible Cuban. these incredible Cuban. >> There was there was an opportunity. >> There was there was an opportunity. >> There was there was an opportunity. There was an opportunity to buy a $44 There was an opportunity to buy a $44 There was an opportunity to buy a $44 million condo in Surfside. He couldn't million condo in Surfside. He couldn't million condo in Surfside. He couldn't pass it up. It just happened to be on pass it up. It just happened to be on pass it up. It just happened to be on the same day that they passed a the same day that they passed a the same day that they passed a millionaire tax. millionaire tax. millionaire tax. >> He he had the uh Cuban sandwich at Liss >> He he had the uh Cuban sandwich at Liss >> He he had the uh Cuban sandwich at Liss Sanguich and uh he he fell in love. Sanguich and uh he he fell in love. Sanguich and uh he he fell in love. Schultz has been getting crushed after Schultz has been getting crushed after Schultz has been getting crushed after saying when he ran for president that he saying when he ran for president that he saying when he ran for president that he would be willing to pay more taxes. Uh would be willing to pay more taxes. Uh would be willing to pay more taxes. Uh Bezos obviously left back in November of Bezos obviously left back in November of Bezos obviously left back in November of 2023 2023 2023 >> and people speculated maybe the 7% >> and people speculated maybe the 7% >> and people speculated maybe the 7% capital gains tax um would um have capital gains tax um would um have capital gains tax um would um have influenced that. Who knows? So I guess influenced that. Who knows? So I guess influenced that. Who knows? So I guess Shimoth what is the endgame here? Shimoth what is the endgame here? Shimoth what is the endgame here? Because for these local politicians, Because for these local politicians, Because for these local politicians, they must have learned the lesson that they must have learned the lesson that they must have learned the lesson that people of means can move. They have the people of means can move. They have the people of means can move. They have the ability to buy new homes, put their old ability to buy new homes, put their old ability to buy new homes, put their old homes on the market. They're very mobile homes on the market. They're very mobile homes on the market. They're very mobile and they could even leave the United and they could even leave the United and they could even leave the United States and go to Singapore or Dubai or States and go to Singapore or Dubai or States and go to Singapore or Dubai or other locations in the world. Why are other locations in the world. Why are other locations in the world. Why are they still enacting these? and will they they still enacting these? and will they they still enacting these? and will they continue to sell enactes until we get to continue to sell enactes until we get to continue to sell enactes until we get to 60 70% tax rates and we just lose all of 60 70% tax rates and we just lose all of 60 70% tax rates and we just lose all of the creators and this becomes an the creators and this becomes an the creators and this becomes an Randian. Randian. Randian. >> I think that state politicians on the >> I think that state politicians on the >> I think that state politicians on the west coast are very ineffective and not west coast are very ineffective and not west coast are very ineffective and not not very smart. Nick, there's a there's not very smart. Nick, there's a there's not very smart. Nick, there's a there's a tweet that was published I think maybe a tweet that was published I think maybe a tweet that was published I think maybe it was a infographic that showed net it was a infographic that showed net it was a infographic that showed net migration rates of every single state migration rates of every single state migration rates of every single state for 2025. Washington is a few months for 2025. Washington is a few months for 2025. Washington is a few months behind California in trying to enact behind California in trying to enact behind California in trying to enact these stupid taxes. And the reason these stupid taxes. And the reason these stupid taxes. And the reason they're stupid is these kinds of things they're stupid is these kinds of things they're stupid is these kinds of things don't work at the state level. And we don't work at the state level. And we don't work at the state level. And we know what it's already done in know what it's already done in know what it's already done in California because the Hoover California because the Hoover California because the Hoover Institution just published something Institution just published something Institution just published something this morning and it's a complete this morning and it's a complete this morning and it's a complete indictment of of what the billionaire indictment of of what the billionaire indictment of of what the billionaire tax was trying to do. And by the way, tax was trying to do. And by the way, tax was trying to do. And by the way, this billionaire tax is only polling this billionaire tax is only polling this billionaire tax is only polling right now 25% of the votes it needs. So right now 25% of the votes it needs. So right now 25% of the votes it needs. So maybe it'll find a way to get on the maybe it'll find a way to get on the maybe it'll find a way to get on the ballot and then even then it'll have an ballot and then even then it'll have an ballot and then even then it'll have an uphill climb to get voted in. But look uphill climb to get voted in. But look uphill climb to get voted in. But look at the destruction that it has done in at the destruction that it has done in at the destruction that it has done in California by just announcing it. The California by just announcing it. The California by just announcing it. The Hoover Institution basically ran this Hoover Institution basically ran this Hoover Institution basically ran this Monte Carlo simulation. They ran 100,000 Monte Carlo simulation. They ran 100,000 Monte Carlo simulation. They ran 100,000 runs and in 71% of those runs, it comes runs and in 71% of those runs, it comes runs and in 71% of those runs, it comes out with a negative NPV. out with a negative NPV. out with a negative NPV. And if you expected value it out, it's And if you expected value it out, it's And if you expected value it out, it's about a $25 billion hole. They also about a $25 billion hole. They also about a $25 billion hole. They also found that they overcounted the number found that they overcounted the number found that they overcounted the number of billionaires in California. So that of billionaires in California. So that of billionaires in California. So that number was wrong. They underounted the number was wrong. They underounted the number was wrong. They underounted the amount of revenue that they pay. So that amount of revenue that they pay. So that amount of revenue that they pay. So that was wrong. And they overcounted the was wrong. And they overcounted the was wrong. And they overcounted the estimate of how much money that they estimate of how much money that they estimate of how much money that they would make. So that would make. So that would make. So that >> they're not good at math. They're not >> they're not good at math. They're not >> they're not good at math. They're not good at math. good at math. good at math. >> So when you add it all up, they thought >> So when you add it all up, they thought >> So when you add it all up, they thought they were going to make a hundred. they were going to make a hundred. they were going to make a hundred. They're actually going to make 40. The They're actually going to make 40. The They're actually going to make 40. The people that left pay, you know, $3 to5 people that left pay, you know, $3 to5 people that left pay, you know, $3 to5 billion billion billion a year of taxes. It's going to create a a year of taxes. It's going to create a a year of taxes. It's going to create a $25 billion hole. You're going to have $25 billion hole. You're going to have $25 billion hole. You're going to have the middle class that's now going to the middle class that's now going to the middle class that's now going to have to foot this because this is net have to foot this because this is net have to foot this because this is net revenue that's not going to come into revenue that's not going to come into revenue that's not going to come into the budget. That's about 2500 per middle the budget. That's about 2500 per middle the budget. That's about 2500 per middle class household. There's about 10 class household. There's about 10 class household. There's about 10 million in California. So that's what's million in California. So that's what's million in California. So that's what's happened just by making the threat. happened just by making the threat. happened just by making the threat. >> Washington had a 23-hour debate and >> Washington had a 23-hour debate and >> Washington had a 23-hour debate and passed the law. So I suspect when you passed the law. So I suspect when you passed the law. So I suspect when you look back on this in 18 or 24 months, look back on this in 18 or 24 months, look back on this in 18 or 24 months, it'll be as bad or worse than it'll be as bad or worse than it'll be as bad or worse than California. These things don't make California. These things don't make California. These things don't make sense. The reason they don't make sense sense. The reason they don't make sense sense. The reason they don't make sense is that you are putting good money after is that you are putting good money after is that you are putting good money after bad. We all know that money that goes to bad. We all know that money that goes to bad. We all know that money that goes to the state governments are wasted. We the state governments are wasted. We the state governments are wasted. We just don't know how much. And so when just don't know how much. And so when just don't know how much. And so when you keep asking more, eventually the you keep asking more, eventually the you keep asking more, eventually the smart people say enough's enough. I'm smart people say enough's enough. I'm smart people say enough's enough. I'm out of here. We might find out how much. out of here. We might find out how much. out of here. We might find out how much. I think uh Bari Weiss is on the case. I I think uh Bari Weiss is on the case. I I think uh Bari Weiss is on the case. I don't know if you saw her do her CBS don't know if you saw her do her CBS don't know if you saw her do her CBS report this week. She's she's going hard report this week. She's she's going hard report this week. She's she's going hard for fraud. And until you get fraud out for fraud. And until you get fraud out for fraud. And until you get fraud out of the system, I don't think you have of the system, I don't think you have of the system, I don't think you have the moral high ground to raise taxes. I the moral high ground to raise taxes. I the moral high ground to raise taxes. I think that should be the message that think that should be the message that think that should be the message that all Americans all Americans all Americans >> send to politicians. >> send to politicians. >> send to politicians. >> That should be your campaign promise >> That should be your campaign promise >> That should be your campaign promise when you run whatever whatever you do. when you run whatever whatever you do. when you run whatever whatever you do. >> Hi, I'm Jason Caliganos and I will get >> Hi, I'm Jason Caliganos and I will get >> Hi, I'm Jason Caliganos and I will get rid of fraud and lower your taxes. rid of fraud and lower your taxes. rid of fraud and lower your taxes. Look, you may have seen an even more Look, you may have seen an even more Look, you may have seen an even more severe attack was proposed at the severe attack was proposed at the severe attack was proposed at the federal level where Bernie Sanders and federal level where Bernie Sanders and federal level where Bernie Sanders and and I think Roana came out with their and I think Roana came out with their and I think Roana came out with their version of a national wealth tax where version of a national wealth tax where version of a national wealth tax where it wasn't just 5% once like in it wasn't just 5% once like in it wasn't just 5% once like in California, it was 5% per year, California, it was 5% per year, California, it was 5% per year, >> per year. >> per year. >> per year. >> So, in other words, in roughly 20 years, >> So, in other words, in roughly 20 years, >> So, in other words, in roughly 20 years, the federal government's just going to the federal government's just going to the federal government's just going to take all of your money. I mean, that's take all of your money. I mean, that's take all of your money. I mean, that's it. Look, this is socialism. This is it. Look, this is socialism. This is it. Look, this is socialism. This is another way to get to the same end another way to get to the same end another way to get to the same end point, which is the government owns point, which is the government owns point, which is the government owns everything. everything. everything. >> They seize. Well, I mean, the seizure >> They seize. Well, I mean, the seizure >> They seize. Well, I mean, the seizure part of it, I think, is the nuance point part of it, I think, is the nuance point part of it, I think, is the nuance point we have to get across, which is if you we have to get across, which is if you we have to get across, which is if you earned it and paid your taxes already, earned it and paid your taxes already, earned it and paid your taxes already, >> and then the state can just decide, you >> and then the state can just decide, you >> and then the state can just decide, you know what, we didn't take enough 10 know what, we didn't take enough 10 know what, we didn't take enough 10 years ago, we need to go seize that. years ago, we need to go seize that. years ago, we need to go seize that. Hey, when you sold Yammer, we didn't Hey, when you sold Yammer, we didn't Hey, when you sold Yammer, we didn't take enough. We need to take it now. take enough. We need to take it now. take enough. We need to take it now. >> Raise your hand if you believe the >> Raise your hand if you believe the >> Raise your hand if you believe the things you own are better off being things you own are better off being things you own are better off being owned by Bernie Sanders and Roana. Raise owned by Bernie Sanders and Roana. Raise owned by Bernie Sanders and Roana. Raise your hand if that's what you believe. I your hand if that's what you believe. I your hand if that's what you believe. I mean, you'd have to be an idiot to mean, you'd have to be an idiot to mean, you'd have to be an idiot to believe that. Well, I'll tell you the believe that. Well, I'll tell you the believe that. Well, I'll tell you the last time we saw these proposals of last time we saw these proposals of last time we saw these proposals of asset seizures was during the guilded asset seizures was during the guilded asset seizures was during the guilded age, you know, 1870 to 1920. age, you know, 1870 to 1920. age, you know, 1870 to 1920. >> You know, then it was Carnegi and >> You know, then it was Carnegi and >> You know, then it was Carnegi and Rockefeller. You know what's Rockefeller. You know what's Rockefeller. You know what's interesting? I went back and looked at interesting? I went back and looked at interesting? I went back and looked at it. There were actually like it was it. There were actually like it was it. There were actually like it was actual warfare. We had hundreds of actual warfare. We had hundreds of actual warfare. We had hundreds of people killed in clashes um you know people killed in clashes um you know people killed in clashes um you know during the great railroad strike, the during the great railroad strike, the during the great railroad strike, the Pullman strike, etc. Um and it was all Pullman strike, etc. Um and it was all Pullman strike, etc. Um and it was all over this. And so I think shame on the over this. And so I think shame on the over this. And so I think shame on the politicians that are fanning the flames politicians that are fanning the flames politicians that are fanning the flames of class warfare. Um we all need to of class warfare. Um we all need to of class warfare. Um we all need to bring the temperature down. There are bring the temperature down. There are bring the temperature down. There are fair debates on whether states have fair debates on whether states have fair debates on whether states have enough resources to fulfill their enough resources to fulfill their enough resources to fulfill their obligations to the citizens. There are obligations to the citizens. There are obligations to the citizens. There are fair debates about fraud. All has to be fair debates about fraud. All has to be fair debates about fraud. All has to be taken on. But I think it's interesting taken on. But I think it's interesting taken on. But I think it's interesting in the state of California, right? I in the state of California, right? I in the state of California, right? I think the teachers union is against the think the teachers union is against the think the teachers union is against the the billionaire's tax because they know the billionaire's tax because they know the billionaire's tax because they know it's going to lead to less dollars for it's going to lead to less dollars for it's going to lead to less dollars for education for the state of California. education for the state of California. education for the state of California. and Matt Mayan who's running for and Matt Mayan who's running for and Matt Mayan who's running for governor is against the tax. The current governor is against the tax. The current governor is against the tax. The current sitting governor, Democrat, against the sitting governor, Democrat, against the sitting governor, Democrat, against the tax, right? They all need to step up and tax, right? They all need to step up and tax, right? They all need to step up and explain not just that they're against explain not just that they're against explain not just that they're against the tax, but we you're either on the the tax, but we you're either on the the tax, but we you're either on the side of business and entrepreneurs and side of business and entrepreneurs and side of business and entrepreneurs and creativity and moving the state forward creativity and moving the state forward creativity and moving the state forward and growing the economy or you're and growing the economy or you're and growing the economy or you're against it. And that's what's at stake against it. And that's what's at stake against it. And that's what's at stake here. And fortunately, the outcome of here. And fortunately, the outcome of here. And fortunately, the outcome of the battle uh you know during the the battle uh you know during the the battle uh you know during the guilded age was that America didn't guilded age was that America didn't guilded age was that America didn't abandon entrepreneurialism. We didn't abandon entrepreneurialism. We didn't abandon entrepreneurialism. We didn't abandon capitalism like Europe did and abandon capitalism like Europe did and abandon capitalism like Europe did and now we leaned into it. Now we played it now we leaned into it. Now we played it now we leaned into it. Now we played it out. out. out. >> One point on that. So you mentioned that >> One point on that. So you mentioned that >> One point on that. So you mentioned that some of the unions in California are some of the unions in California are some of the unions in California are opposed to this this asset seizure tax. opposed to this this asset seizure tax. opposed to this this asset seizure tax. That's only because they weren't cut in That's only because they weren't cut in That's only because they weren't cut in on it, on it, on it, >> right? >> right? >> right? >> So there's already rumors that the >> So there's already rumors that the >> So there's already rumors that the California Teachers Association is California Teachers Association is California Teachers Association is working on their own version. working on their own version. working on their own version. >> Oh boy. >> Oh boy. >> Oh boy. >> Billionaire asset seizure >> Billionaire asset seizure >> Billionaire asset seizure >> for not this election cycle, but for the >> for not this election cycle, but for the >> for not this election cycle, but for the next one. Yeah. next one. Yeah. next one. Yeah. >> And next time they're going to have >> And next time they're going to have >> And next time they're going to have their ducks in a row and they're going their ducks in a row and they're going their ducks in a row and they're going to have all the pigs at the trough and to have all the pigs at the trough and to have all the pigs at the trough and all the unions are going to get together all the unions are going to get together all the unions are going to get together because the SEIU because the SEIU because the SEIU uh they did this on their own. So again, uh they did this on their own. So again, uh they did this on their own. So again, they didn't allow all the other groups they didn't allow all the other groups they didn't allow all the other groups to wet their beak. So I think that to wet their beak. So I think that to wet their beak. So I think that unfortunately I think that's going to be unfortunately I think that's going to be unfortunately I think that's going to be corrected. If this one doesn't pass, corrected. If this one doesn't pass, corrected. If this one doesn't pass, they'll correct it for 28 and it's more they'll correct it for 28 and it's more they'll correct it for 28 and it's more likely to pass because they're all going likely to pass because they're all going likely to pass because they're all going to do it. And the other thing is that I to do it. And the other thing is that I to do it. And the other thing is that I think that by 28 this national wealth think that by 28 this national wealth think that by 28 this national wealth tax will just be a standard part of the tax will just be a standard part of the tax will just be a standard part of the Democratic platform. Democratic platform. Democratic platform. >> Table stakes. Yeah. >> Table stakes. Yeah. >> Table stakes. Yeah. >> Yeah. It's table stakes. I think that >> Yeah. It's table stakes. I think that >> Yeah. It's table stakes. I think that you know the Bernie Sanders Roana you know the Bernie Sanders Roana you know the Bernie Sanders Roana position will be the position of the position will be the position of the position will be the position of the Democratic party. And you even see Gavin Democratic party. And you even see Gavin Democratic party. And you even see Gavin Newsome creating wiggle room for himself Newsome creating wiggle room for himself Newsome creating wiggle room for himself to embrace his position. If you look to embrace his position. If you look to embrace his position. If you look closely at his statements formally closely at his statements formally closely at his statements formally opposing the the BTA in California, what opposing the the BTA in California, what opposing the the BTA in California, what he says is that a state can't do this by he says is that a state can't do this by he says is that a state can't do this by themselves because they got 49 other themselves because they got 49 other themselves because they got 49 other states to compete with. states to compete with. states to compete with. >> So what he's saying is that, you know, >> So what he's saying is that, you know, >> So what he's saying is that, you know, look, California is operating in a look, California is operating in a look, California is operating in a comparative environment. One state can't comparative environment. One state can't comparative environment. One state can't do it. And then he's leaving the other do it. And then he's leaving the other do it. And then he's leaving the other part elliptical, which is well the the part elliptical, which is well the the part elliptical, which is well the the federal government needs to do this. And federal government needs to do this. And federal government needs to do this. And I think that you can expect him to I think that you can expect him to I think that you can expect him to embrace that position by 2028. There is embrace that position by 2028. There is embrace that position by 2028. There is a way out here from this socialist a way out here from this socialist a way out here from this socialist movement. It's a it's very simple if you movement. It's a it's very simple if you movement. It's a it's very simple if you think from first principles. What does think from first principles. What does think from first principles. What does an American want? What does an American an American want? What does an American an American want? What does an American family want? What what do mothers and family want? What what do mothers and family want? What what do mothers and fathers in this country want? They want fathers in this country want? They want fathers in this country want? They want to educate their kids. They want to be to educate their kids. They want to be to educate their kids. They want to be able to own a nice home. They want to able to own a nice home. They want to able to own a nice home. They want to have decent healthare. They want to have have decent healthare. They want to have have decent healthare. They want to have healthy food. It's a very small subset healthy food. It's a very small subset healthy food. It's a very small subset of issues. And AI is uniquely positioned of issues. And AI is uniquely positioned of issues. And AI is uniquely positioned to solve a lot of these problems. and to solve a lot of these problems. and to solve a lot of these problems. and entrepreneurs can come in and take these entrepreneurs can come in and take these entrepreneurs can come in and take these highly regulated industries if we're highly regulated industries if we're highly regulated industries if we're allowed to participate in them. allowed to participate in them. allowed to participate in them. Education, we have to break this Education, we have to break this Education, we have to break this accreditation, you know, uh, cartel. And accreditation, you know, uh, cartel. And accreditation, you know, uh, cartel. And then housing, we have to break these then housing, we have to break these then housing, we have to break these regulations like the great state of regulations like the great state of regulations like the great state of Texas, Nevada, and Florida have. And Texas, Nevada, and Florida have. And Texas, Nevada, and Florida have. And then you know when it comes to healthare then you know when it comes to healthare then you know when it comes to healthare this is where AI could have a tremendous this is where AI could have a tremendous this is where AI could have a tremendous impact and entrepreneurs could have a impact and entrepreneurs could have a impact and entrepreneurs could have a tremendous impact in lowering the cost tremendous impact in lowering the cost tremendous impact in lowering the cost of healthare and letting people solve of healthare and letting people solve of healthare and letting people solve for that with their own um you know for that with their own um you know for that with their own um you know healthcareled you know self-led healthcareled you know self-led healthcareled you know self-led healthcare. These are the problems. If healthcare. These are the problems. If healthcare. These are the problems. If you solve for these problems people's you solve for these problems people's you solve for these problems people's homes, people's health, people's homes, people's health, people's homes, people's health, people's education of their kids, we're going to education of their kids, we're going to education of their kids, we're going to solve these problems and we don't need solve these problems and we don't need solve these problems and we don't need to go to socialism and seize people's to go to socialism and seize people's to go to socialism and seize people's assets. That's what entrepreneurs should assets. That's what entrepreneurs should assets. That's what entrepreneurs should be doing. That's what entrepreneurs be doing. That's what entrepreneurs be doing. That's what entrepreneurs should be working on and that's what should be working on and that's what should be working on and that's what where the government can help. That's where the government can help. That's where the government can help. That's where Trump's uniquely qualified. He is where Trump's uniquely qualified. He is where Trump's uniquely qualified. He is the regulatory breaker. He got nuclear the regulatory breaker. He got nuclear the regulatory breaker. He got nuclear back on the agenda. No other president back on the agenda. No other president back on the agenda. No other president had gotten nuclear back on the agenda had gotten nuclear back on the agenda had gotten nuclear back on the agenda for America. He can get housing back on for America. He can get housing back on for America. He can get housing back on the agenda. We have to break those the agenda. We have to break those the agenda. We have to break those things and not start foreign wars. My things and not start foreign wars. My things and not start foreign wars. My earlier point and start creating houses earlier point and start creating houses earlier point and start creating houses for Americans. Another amazing episode for Americans. Another amazing episode for Americans. Another amazing episode of the All-In podcast. Gentlemen, of the All-In podcast. Gentlemen, of the All-In podcast. Gentlemen, >> you always give yourself the last word, >> you always give yourself the last word, >> you always give yourself the last word, Jal. Well, I go last. If you'd like, you Jal. Well, I go last. If you'd like, you Jal. Well, I go last. If you'd like, you can moderate and I'll go first. But I can moderate and I'll go first. But I can moderate and I'll go first. But I always go last, but you can you I'm you always go last, but you can you I'm you always go last, but you can you I'm you could give me a round of applause or you could give me a round of applause or you could give me a round of applause or you can throw a tomato. Go ahead, Sax. It can throw a tomato. Go ahead, Sax. It can throw a tomato. Go ahead, Sax. It doesn't matter. doesn't matter. doesn't matter. >> It's all good. It's all good. Go for it. >> It's all good. It's all good. Go for it. >> It's all good. It's all good. Go for it. >> All right, everybody. Another amazing >> All right, everybody. Another amazing >> All right, everybody. Another amazing episode of the All-In podcast. Thank episode of the All-In podcast. Thank episode of the All-In podcast. Thank you, Bestie Brad, for joining us. Thank you, Bestie Brad, for joining us. Thank you, Bestie Brad, for joining us. Thank you, Bestie Brad. Love you, boys. you, Bestie Brad. Love you, boys. you, Bestie Brad. Love you, boys. Byebye. Byebye. Byebye. >> We'll let your winners ride. And it said, "We open sourced it to the And it said, "We open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with fans and they've just gone crazy with fans and they've just gone crazy with it." Love you, Queen of >> Besties are >> Besties are my dog taking notice your driveways. >> Oh man, my habitasher will meet up. >> Oh man, my habitasher will meet up. >> We should all just get a room and just >> We should all just get a room and just >> We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy cuz they're all have one big huge orgy cuz they're all have one big huge orgy cuz they're all just useless. It's like this like sexual just useless. It's like this like sexual just useless. It's like this like sexual tension that we just need to release tension that we just need to release tension that we just need to release somehow. >> Your feet. >> Your feet. >> We need to get merch. >> We need to get merch. >> We need to get merch. >> I'm going all in.