Iran’s Problems are Worse Than You Think & OpenAI Had to Hit the Panic Button AGAIN

Key Takeaway

Treat AI as a force multiplier, not a replacement for your judgment. Today, choose one task where you already have domain knowledge—research, planning, writing, design, or analysis—and run three iterations with an AI tool: define the outcome, give it your specific constraints and taste, then critique and refine the output. The value comes from directing the tool with your expertise, not accepting its first generic answer.

Episode Overview

Tom Bilyeu examines rising bond yields, energy constraints, and debt-funded AI infrastructure as interconnected economic risks. He also explores AI’s potential to accelerate medical discovery, lower research costs, and amplify individual productivity, while debating the geopolitical and societal consequences of competition between major powers.

Full Transcript

Transcript of Iran’s Problems are Worse Than You Think & OpenAI Had to Hit the Panic Button AGAIN from Impact Theory. Auto-generated from episode audio; may contain minor errors.

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The bond situation is getting completely unhinged. The 10-year is basically a straight line up, hitting numbers that we haven't seen in nearly two decades. In some cases, more than two decades. If you were hoping for protection from Skynet, it ain't coming. Despite whistleblower concerns, the US and China, literally Trump and Xi, I just imagine them holding hands saying, we're not changing anything about AI. We're going to keep developing it at breakneck speed. The race to AI supremacy itself is just getting truly bizarre. Sam and Dario pled with the UN to protect the world from, get ready for it, Sam and Dario.

NVIDIA's Jensen Huang is not having any of that and he did a press tour slapping the doomers around, calling them irresponsible. Speaking of irresponsible, Oracle's stock price plummeted on news that their latest debt monster AI center got delayed due to an inability to get gas, reminding all of us exactly how precarious all of the AI debt-based build-out really is and your whole economy is teetering on it. But the debt really is buying something absolutely extraordinary. This is where I feel schizophrenic when I talk about AI, but AI has made yet another potentially game-changing medical discovery.

We're going to be talking about that. It is very exciting. It's all promised right now. We don't know exactly what it's going to become, but when you hear about it, you're going to realize this is a very thrilling moment. Now, what isn't thrilling is that since the war started, the bond situation really has gotten completely unhinged. The 10-year yield is going parabolic. It's hitting numbers that we have not seen in nearly two decades. The 10-year closed at 5.22% yesterday. I don't know if you can pull up the graph.

When you see the graph and you see that it literally is just a straight line up if you clock it since when the war started, it's pretty unnerving. Now, the last time that we were at 5.22% on the 10-year, my wife was literally sleeping on the pavement to get a brand new device called the iPhone. And of course, a little catastrophe called the great financial crisis was looming on the horizon. Could the two be related? Not the iPhone, but the 5.22% rates. That is what we're about to find out.

Now, the 10-year, unfortunately for all of us, is not the only problem. The 30-year hit 5.5%. Now, you would expect there to be an additional premium, but the fact that it's rising is what all eyes should be on. And that 5.5% for the 30-year is also a level that we haven't seen in a very long time. And this is a big part of the reason when you look at what that does to mortgage rates now being over 7%. This is exactly how you end up with a frozen housing market, which is essentially what we have right now.

And given how important the housing market is to the general economy, you begin to understand how if AI doesn't pay off, man, you don't have a lot of other bets going on right now. And so the last time that we saw a 30-year this high, we have to go all the way back to 2004. So we are literally talking about more than two decades ago. Now, this past Wednesday was the biggest single-day jump in the 10-year since the tariff madness of April of 25. So it's not unprecedented, but it takes some pretty big things to see a jump that big.

So it certainly is something to pay attention to. But the real question, if you're looking at the graph and you're seeing it go vertical, you're seeing these big jumps. The real question is why? What is driving this? Now, obviously, the war in Iran and Ukraine's increasing ability to strike Russia's oil infrastructure. Do not discount that. Those are contributing massively. Oil is back above $103. Diesel has just set a record. Man, diesel is really the one to start paying attention to here in the near term, given all of the knock-on effects that that's going to have with manufacturing, with food.

There are going to be a lot of things that are downstream to that, and that one is really racing away. Now, global disruptions are also contributing to inflation. Now, we don't have any updated inflation numbers, but August inflation came in at 3.4 percent. And Wednesday's survey of corporate purchasing managers, this is something that the industry basically uses to say, okay, we don't have the official inflation numbers, but what are we expecting them to be? Because basically, if purchasing managers are telling you that everything is getting more expensive, then the likelihood that that is going to some percentage be passed on to the consumer is effectively 100 percent.

There are no guarantees, but businesses are not going to be able to absorb all of this. And what their business activity is showing is a five-year high. So with the prices, the companies are paying for stuff, rising at the fastest pace in four years. It's another brick in the wall of, uh-oh, we've got a fundamental problem here that is beginning to shake literally the foundations that everything rests on. That 10-year number, and if you guys are anything like me, for a huge swath of your life, you probably didn't even pay attention to the rates of the bond market.

You may not have understood how important all other pricing is basically coming off of that 10-year. And so anything that is adding bricks to that wall of that continuing to climb higher, that's undermining the overall stability of that. Then you realize that as that number starts hitting records, it starts being something that we haven't seen in decades, then you're in for the kind of pain and suffering that we haven't seen in a while. And unfortunately, when you look back at what was going on in the Silicon Valley bank when that imploded, that was basically a very similar setup to what we're seeing right now.

Now, despite the war driving a lot of the inflation, you've got the Fed actively hiking rates. Now, I've made my position on this clear. We will see in the fullness of time what is really going on, but there's no amount of hikes that you can do to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. So if one of the biggest things that is driving inflation right now is the fact that we've got energy disruptions in two of the most important places in the world for energy production, Russia and the Middle East, then hiking that as if this were an economy that's getting too excited, that's spending money too much, that there's just too much capital flowing around, which is when that lever actually makes sense.

When you've got an economy that's overheating out of over-exuberance, then applying the brakes to it makes sense. But treating this like a spending problem rather than a war problem just means that basically you're going to keep trying to hike in the hopes of getting that inflation number down, but the reality is that to do that, and you could, there is certainly a point at which they could raise rates so high that everybody backs off the economy, people stop spending money, that kills demand, and therefore the overall cost of things, inflation, begins coming down.

But the only way to get there is to break the economy first. And so that is a very weird strategy, and we're seeing now that there's a 75% chance that they're going to hike again in October. So the strategy does not seem clear-eyed from where I'm sitting. Now this opens up a whole drama if you guys have been paying attention. So Trump said something the other day that really didn't garner as much press as one would expect it to garner, which is that he said, hey, I spoke to Kevin Warsh, people were like really hammering him, hey, you know, supposedly you like Kevin Warsh because he wasn't going to raise rates.

You've been saying for a long time rates have got to come down. So what gives? You just had him hike rates. And what Trump said was, and this is weird because either Trump is lying or Trump is admitting something that is absolutely terrible because it's collusion between the government and the Fed, which means the Fed is not independent, but supposedly the conversation went like this. Warsh comes to him ahead of the announcement and says, listen, my board is basically all against me, so what do you want me to do?

No matter what I do, we are going to be hiking. And Trump's quote was, so I told him given that he has a hostile board, he should just vote with them so it can be a unanimous decision. What? So that's one of those things where I'm very surprised that more people aren't talking about that. Now, it fits exactly with what I said is almost certainly the thing that happened. I do not have any insider information. You have to take this as one man's opinion, but I think the only reason that Warsh got in there was Warsh said all the right things and that Besant and Trump understand given the trillions of dollars of debt that are rolling over in the next 12 months, I think it's like 10 trillion in the next 12 months, and effectively our interest payment is going to roughly double.

You have a real need to get that number down. So if Trump is bringing somebody in that he doesn't have any behind-the-scenes assurances, has a very similar approach to him, it would be shocking to everybody that he would have pushed that guy forward. So it becomes all too believable that they did have those conversations before he was put forward as the next Fed chair, and it's all too believable that they really did have a conversation where Warsh was like, hey man, sorry, I'm trying over here, but I am beholden to the board.

I'm only one vote. There's only so much I can do. So getting into that kind of coordination is really about the Fed giving up its independence. So do we have an independent Fed? Do we not have an independent Fed? And what are we going to do in the face of all this? Now, Besant is obviously doing his best to try to deal with the situation by changing the duration. It's actually a very interesting approach to all of this, which is to understand that, okay, you've got stuff that is happening on the long end, so he's doubled his long bond buybacks to $4 billion a shot, right?

We've talked about that, but that rally only lasted a day. Now, Besant's mentor, Stan Druckenmiller, he was like, listen, any time that a government is trying to defend prices against the fundamentals of the market, they're always going to lose. So you've got Besant trying a strategy, which is, okay, I'm going to buy everything back. I'm going to create the market. That was his whole thing. I'm going to be the market maker. Well, the problem is that the savvy people that are buying those bonds understand how this game is played, including how much money it would take to really sustain that market.

And so they're going to keep testing. They're going to keep pushing, which means he's going to have to keep opening the checkbook and buying more and more of this stuff to try to artificially keep the prices down. So Besant's smart. He knows that. So he's got a secondary strategy, which is that he's going to try to swap all the duration. So anything that's long dated, which is more expensive, he's going to try to pull that forward. So the bond market currently expects inflation to average about 2.3% over the next decade.

Now, that is a bet that the Fed basically is going to win. Let's say that, that they're going to be able to control inflation. Now, if they're actually able to control inflation and none of this runs hot over the next 10 years, then Besant can pull all of this off. You switch your duration from the 10 and 30 year, which is going up and you bring it into the two year, which is a lower rate. It's not exactly in great shape, but it's a lower rate than the alternative.

So now Besant will be able to minimize the impacts of this increase in rates by shifting everything into the shorter term duration. But the problem is you don't have that ballast anymore of getting the, some things are long dated, right? So you have some assurances that sort of balance out any spikes. And if the Fed really does keep inflation averaged over 10 years to 2.3%, it's all going to be fine. If on the other hand, we start seeing massive spikes or October is a spike, November is a spike, so on and so forth.

And we just keep taking that rate up, then Besant is going to be in a very bad situation because now you're just going to have to money print into oblivion, into absolute oblivion, to try to artificially keep that price down. Now it's a game called financial repression. It certainly is not without its precedent. This is something that we've seen before, but it is absolutely terrible for an economy that is already K-shaped. It's just going to get worse. So we're going to have to see ultimately what ends up playing out, but given that there's no end in sight for the thing.

that are driving this disruption, everybody is making a very big bet that we're somehow going to figure this out. And behind this, the thing that's looming is AI. Now, if AI ends up being the miracle that we all want it to be, then you're in a pretty reasonable situation. And AI, just like Warsh has said his whole strategy is based on, that's going to be innovation-led deflation, which is a great thing, which is going to allow the Fed to run hot because the economy is actually growing.

And we can basically inflate our way out of this because the economy is growing at a faster rate. That is basically the playbook. But boy, oh boy, are there a lot of things that that hinges on. And one of them is that this debt-fueled build-out, which is more insane than anything we have ever seen. It is the amount of revenue that these companies are putting towards the build-out of this new infrastructure is more than what we saw when the railroads were being built. It's more than what we saw during the internet build-out, both of which, by the way, bankrupted an unimaginable amount of people and threw the economies into massive turmoil.

I'm sure you guys will remember, and if you're too young, you will have heard about it, the dot-com bust and all of the trauma that that created in the markets. And so right now, there's that huge looming question. We're hitting pause for a moment, but there's plenty more ahead, so don't go anywhere. Let's talk about the last time you got stuck in a phone tree. Press four for billing. Hold music. A robotic voice asks for your account number. Then a person picks up and asks for it again.

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No credit card or payment is needed. Just head to PipeDrive dot com slash impact to get started. That's PipeDrive dot com slash impact. And you can be up and running in just minutes. Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action. And we just saw Oracle take an absolutely massive like 6 percent, 5 or 6 percent in a single day drop based on one bit of news, which is that they were unable to continue progress at the rate that they thought they were going to on bringing their latest New Mexican data center online.

And so that data center now has an at least six month pause. So they filed for a force majeure saying something out of their control is causing this pause. They're not going to be getting the revenues when they thought they were. So they're going to need to pause on some of their debt payments. OK, that caused other companies that are like Blue Owl that are involved in the debt to also take these big financial hits in terms of their stock price. Also, Oracle has been downgraded.

So right now the world is basically making a very interesting bet. And that interesting bet goes something like this. You can treat the data center build out as more or less investment grade bonds because their cash flow is going to be incredible. It's unlike anything we've ever seen. Now, when you start seeing them have these huge energy problems, then it starts going. Wait a second. We've been tracking this other thing over here, which is is the U.S. bringing on energy fast enough to meet the demand.

If the U.S. is not bringing on energy fast enough to meet demand, then we're going to find ourselves with more compute, the amount of compute that we're building towards. So we have a demand for compute that we cannot meet. But the debt doesn't wait. So now you get into a position, even if Oracle is able to say, OK, I'm not going to be making payments on this debt. A company like Blue Owl, which is taking a lot of this debt and trying to package it up and sell it into deeper parts of the economy, into the more conservative buyers, if you will, the 401k holders, where this ends up getting into people's stack because of things like insurance companies, 401ks, they're all holding all of this debt that is supposed to be super safe.

And now we're seeing actually, wait, hold on. All of this may be choking because we're unable to get the energy where we need it to be. So now you're in a position where it's like, OK, we've maybe the technology of AI is exactly what you want it to be. Maybe we're even able to raise all of the money to get this on debt. But the problem is we're not able to bring the data centers on that would unlock the actual revenue because we have an energy crisis and we have an energy crisis for multiple reasons, not only everything that's going on in the Middle East, but also just not being able to get the permits that we need to spin up the energy that these data centers are going to need.

Now, people have been waving the flag. Elon Musk has been talking about this for ages, saying by 2027, we are not going to be able to bring online the amount of compute that we need to meet the demand because of an inability for the U.S. to produce enough energy. And we're starting to see the first signs of that with this New Mexican data center that's now been delayed for at least six months. So it's one of those where, man, it's all precarious and there's no reason to assume that everything is about to fall and crumble into the abyss.

But you start putting those two things together. We're hiking rates into something that has nothing to do with people being over over exuberant in their spending. And you have now an inability to bring on the amount of energy that we need to actually get these debt fueled centers on board fast enough. And then plus, just as a reminder, historically, this is what happens. The debt ends up becoming a problem for the revenue can make up for it. So it's like all the classic things that people have been saying, this is how this normally plays out.

It's actually playing out just like that, which is not ideal. I want to jump back to that five point two two, because I think a lot of times we're looking at the broader picture. We're looking at how is this affecting everything on a global stage. But I want to dive into how that percentage affects the average viewer watching the stream. So what does this mean for someone maybe trying to buy a house or finance a car? Like, what does that look like? Well, if you're trying to buy a house or finance a car, the rates are just much higher than they have been recently.

Now, from a historical standpoint, we're still not anywhere near all time highs or anything like that. But when you have a position where people already feel and I'm using that word very intentionally, they already feel like things are too expensive. Plus, literally post covid, you had that 30 percent jump. So things really did get more expensive. Plus, there's an expectation that things should be far cheaper than they are. You put that together with the fact that we're moving in the wrong direction. So you've already got people in a bad emotional state and inflation expectations are actually more important than the inflation itself.

Once people expect the inflation to be there, they begin pulling back on the economy. As you start pulling back on the economy, then the economy begins to slow down. And all of the things that you're counting on in order to get out from under your debt to GDP problem, they all require your economy to grow. Right now, what, last quarter, your economy grew by 1.6 percent. So it's like people are trying to no, no, no, like we're growing at a much faster rate. And we have had months that will blip up into five percent, but we haven't seen anything sustained.

So if you start pegging this at two percent growth, two and a half percent growth, you're so underwater from an inflation perspective. So now people's lives are getting more expensive when they already feel that they're terrible in real terms. And you end up where the economy just starts slowing down, slowing down, slowing down. So people's mortgage rates, half of all mortgage rates right now, I think are below three percent. So given that half of all mortgage rates right now are below three percent, if you're looking at a seven, seven to five, seven and a half, you're just going to say, I'm not going to sell.

When housing makes up such a big part of the normal economy. Now, all of a sudden, it's just you're not turning over those dollars. So the velocity of dollars begins to slow down. And that's exactly how you stagnate your economy. So it will just be more people just saying, yeah, I'm not going to buy that big purchase. I'm not going to take on that car or I'm going to turn to a used car or something. And when you begin losing that enthusiasm, that exuberance within the economy, everything just stalls out.

And that's how you end up in a recession. Gotcha. And speaking on recession, do you think this is closer to you mentioned like 2004, 2008 era? Do you think that we're closer to 2008 version of the story or the 70s version of the story? Oh, huh. So you have two of them playing out at the same time. So the story of the 70s is really we're breaking the relationship to gold. And so now we can just start being reckless, which is wildly inflationary unto itself. Then you have an oil embargo in 1973 that literally driven by Iran.

So, boy, does history rhyme. And so you have those pressures already. The question is, how stable is the underlying economy? And this is where the 2008 story comes in. So part of what makes 2008 this terrifying story is something called the euro dollar. We've talked about it before, but I don't know how many people have an internalized map of the euro dollar. So the analogy for the euro dollar, I don't expect this to help people understand it, but they'll be able to model it. The euro dollar is the respiratory system.

It is the breathing function of access to dollars. And so the interesting thing about what's happening right now is this is a global phenomenon. So Japan's rates are super high. UK's rates are super high. Germany's rates are super high. So this isn't something that's unique just to the U.S. And that's bad for investors because it means there's nowhere to go to find the kind of growth that we're looking for. So as you evaluate what happened in 2008, the euro dollar basically seizes up. Everybody's looking at the debt and they're asking one question.

How bad is it? How deep do these financialized products around what we now call subprime mortgages, how deeply has that permeated the system? Because if those dominoes start falling, and this is what the mathematicians figured out, was maybe a year before everything goes bust, you've got a presentation to the banks that says it is a mathematical certainty that you guys are going to go out of business basically. And they're all looking at it like this can't be real. But unfortunately the math is what the math is and we all know that they do end up going out of business and it ends up being this massive catastrophe.

The government has to step in and print everything into oblivion to save too big to fail, all of that nonsense. So when we look at that similar idea, it's no longer housing debt that's been pushed out, but it's the same mechanism of regulators have stepped in and they've said to the industry in large part because of what happened in 2008 that banks are not allowed to lend to you without having some sort of backup to have something in reserves to account for that. But that just pushes that desire for these higher risk loans somewhere else and it pushed it into private credit.

So that's why Blue Owl is a part of this story. So it's not a housing problem necessarily, but it's an AI data center build-out question. And so there's more appetite now, quite frankly, than what we saw in 2008. There's more appetite for this high-risk debt. It is being packaged up as if it were this really high-quality... debt because the narrative of AI is so strong and so going back to the euro dollar, the 2008 moment was the euro dollar going how deeply has this bad debt permeated the market.

They get paranoid, they start pulling back and so what ends up happening is Lehman Brothers just isn't able to get the overnight paper to stay in business and so they go out of business. So you've got the euro dollar market asking that same question now. How bad is the AI debt actually and how much has it permeated the total marketplace? How exposed are we if we keep allowing overnight paper to these different companies that have massive amounts of debt? And so if they start pulling back again that can create its own crisis and so there's a lot of people that are watching what's going on with Blue Owl.

This is why the market was so reactive to Oracle because it's uh-oh, wait a second, hold on. Things are not going according to plan at least with this one data center and is that a domino that we're going to see fall over and over and now this is going to be some sort of ongoing risk or is it going to be contained? And nobody knows the answer to that. If that paranoia stays at a manageable level you've got no problem. You'll be able to keep going, the euro dollar market keeps doing its thing, the global economy continues to be able to breathe and everybody's fine.

But the breathing of the euro dollar market is all confidence-based because they're literally creating that money out of thin air overnight according to each country's banking regulations. So there's so many unknowns right now that's why this is like a really weird time to talk about all of this because what I assume the people that are listening to the show are people that are trying, they're all people that invest. So I assume everybody listening to me is already on the scale of I'm the 10% that owns 93% of the assets.

So they're trying to think, okay what do I do with the asset? Where is the safe haven? And if debt is no longer a safe haven what exactly does that mean? And if inflation is going to be running away because the U.S. government isn't going to hard default, they're going to soft default which means they're going to essentially tax everybody through inflation. So let's say this stuff starts breaking. The Fed just starts printing a bunch of money between the Treasury and the Fed. They won't call it QE but it'll be QE.

They'll pump a ton of money into the system. They'll stabilize it but they'll stabilize it at the cost of potential revolution. I mean that literally. So that's always the balance that they're trying to walk. And so when people talk about the system is breaking that's what they're saying is that the actual appetite for our debt that normally just keeps the train rolling it's beginning to have question marks. So central banks have been pulling away for a long time so that avenue for long-dated debt starts going away.

There's still a need for short-dated debt. It gets tangled up with all of what's going on in the energy sector. Like what is the U.S. really doing? Are we trying to break the back of the GCC nations? And we knew that things were going to play out like this but we knew that we would then become the biggest place for oil exports. And so now what we're doing is going all right Saudi Arabia you walked away from the petrodollar. Fuck you. Don't care. I'm just going to break you guys.

And now everybody's going to come to us and to buy oil from us you're going to have to have dollars. And so that's going to re-stabilize the dollar as just the de facto thing that everybody needs. So maybe they're not getting it all through debt but they're getting it through oil purchases. And there's actually a really interesting bit of evidence for that in what's going on in China. So China right now. So I said earlier it was actually a bit of a lie. I said this is a global problem not for China.

Now China is just absolutely getting hammered. Their economy is in a terrible position. However their rates are low. So it's like what's going on in China? And when you understand what's going on in China you begin to understand what could be happening as a very bordering on tinfoil hat thesis about what the U.S. is really doing. But when you look at China the reason that their rates aren't going crazy is they're able to get easy access to dollars because they just sell everywhere in the world.

And so they're constantly through manufacturing through sales. People are buying things from them in dollars. So they have this constant influx of dollars. So they're not having to fight people where we're seeing inflationary pressures all over the world. But when you have that inflationary pressure the dollar is getting more and more expensive. If the U.S. is going to be the place people have to buy dollars for right at a time where they're already in a bad position because the dollar is much stronger than their local currency.

You now layering on top of the fact that everybody's scrambling for these dollars. And so China is immune to a lot of that because they just naturally get dollars coming into their system by selling stuff. So it's how all of that is ultimately going to play out is a huge question mark. But the like if you were going to make this one single question the single question is what is the safe haven. Where do I go. So if I'm you can't completely remove yourself from the A.I.

bet because inflation is just too likely to go crazy. So it's like you've got to be somewhat exposed to the market. But at the same time people would normally hedge with U.S. bonds and other government like local municipality bonds and corporate bonds. But if all of that has one huge question over it which is how far has the potentially bad A.I. debt reached or the more questionable A.I. debt. Then it's like I there's nowhere that I really feel safe. And so this is why a lot of people are paying attention to gold and silver.

It's like OK if I start to see that run or if I start to see Bitcoin run is that an indication that people are trying to take a flight from safety but away from U.S. debt. Gotcha. And do you think on the A.I. bet specifically you touched on a little bit with the energy being a big thing right now. Do you think that's officially become a problem and creating the most debt for us versus the chip shortage or do you think the chip shortage is still playing a role in creating all these issues with us.

I'm not even sure that the chip shortage is going to matter. I think the bigger problem that Oracle is showing us is we may just have an energy problem. And if we have an energy problem like let's say that there's no difference between I can't get chips and I have chips but I can't turn them on. So I don't know how far that's going to reach. So is the public backlash against data centers going to cause permit hell that stops people from being able to spin up these data centers either because they can't get the gas turned on or they just can't get the permits to build the thing.

All of those are question marks but the need for the chips is going to be downstream of that. So that's more of a confounding thing that even if we can solve the energy problem which does seem to be from the people closest to the problem the thing that they're most worried about by 2027 is we're not able to get the energy. So I'm reading what's going on in Oracle as that sort of first salvo in that drama and so I think that's part of the series of question marks is is this just a one-time small blip it's not going to become systemic or is this the first sign that just as Elon has been trying to warn people that the real problem you have is an energy problem and that's why he's been talking recently about how basically all computation is going to happen in space.

And that is the dual whammy of the U.S. has been foolish on their energy policy for a very long time and the public backlash against data centers is extreme. So all of this stuff is just caught up in all of these interdependencies nobody knows how serious it is it's impossible to trace all of the debt through the system. So yeah and when people get in a position where they can no longer answer the question what is the actual risk-free rate of return it starts to get weird or that the quote unquote risk-free rate of return is just going up up up up up because the market's trying to tell you there is a risk-free rate of return it's just higher and getting higher by the day.

And jumping over to more AI specific things um Anthropic has recently made a pretty cool medical discovery just using Claude and it has to do with CRISPR which if you want to explain what CRISPR is to the chat for those who don't know. Okay so this is this whole thing is absolutely fascinating and as we talk about AI I'm going to continue to sound schizophrenic because I am certainly worried about weapons grade AI becoming a big drama and there's something that we have to do there to protect ourselves from a super intelligence that just outpaces us on everything I think there are legitimate concerns there this is not anybody who's saying there should be no regulation and AI is out of their mind it's just that the government is routinely terrible about AI regulation so we have to be thoughtful about that and that you really have something going on that the AI is making good on a lot of its promises so we need to understand we're in a race with China you've got potential dangers out here but the AI that we have today which I would say is not dangerous in the way that a lot of people would like you to believe because it helps them with building a moat with regulatory capture I'm going to set that aside for a second but AI really is doing a series of pretty extraordinary things and I think a lot of this is getting lost in the narrative so you're going to hear me warn about the real dangers you're going to hear me say we've got to be deft with the regulation we cannot overregulate this thing you're going to hear me talk about China but you're also going to hear me get very enthusiastic about some of the stuff that's coming out and what happened this week is remarkable and Anthropic basically gave Claude a very simple instruction and this so PSA boys and girls please I'm begging you spend time understanding that if AI is giving you something bad that's a you problem it's not the AI's problem so what we're going to walk through is an example of somebody understanding how to prompt this thing how to push it to get it to go do something that's pretty extraordinary so Anthropic gives Claude like a really simple instruction comb a massive DNA database for unusual reverse transcriptases don't worry so much about what that is but in simple language it's basically these enzymes that copy RNA into DNA now what happened after that is breathtaking roughly 950 AI agents take that simple instruction spend 21 hours working on it I don't know what the human hours math is but when you look at some of these other things we've seen you basically end up like with the Navier-Stokes math problem if you guys remember that that was 100 years worth of human research done in some ridiculously short amount of actual human days so same idea here there will have been some ungodly number of human years almost certainly it will be measured done in less than a day and Claude ends up finding a pattern that nobody had become aware of yet so it was a previously unknown molecular machine which is probably the right way to think of it inside of bacteria so it's something known as bacteriophages now these are viruses that in fact may or may not be the right word but they're inside the bacteria and they're sitting beside a repeating DNA stretch and that what they found is something that resembles CRISPR now what CRISPR does this is like the most magical thing I've ever heard in my life what CRISPR does is it allows you to go in and edit DNA so you can literally it wreck it you can program it to recognize a very specific string of DNA it will go in there cut it out and then glue the ends together so you could find a piece of DNA that creates genetic disease for instance and if it's a single edit they can literally just get rid of it they can also use it to cut that out and replace it with another string of DNA so you can actually do repairs so Anthropic is calling this thing that it found ART array associated reverse transcriptases now remember what CRISPR was before it was CRISPR it's just an obscure bacterial immune quirk that nobody really understood until somebody showed that it could be used as a gene editing tool now it's credited with advancing treatment of sickle cell disease and cancer and I think that they're going to find more and more things that this is going to be used for nature has been basically running all these experiments for us evolutionary experiments been doing it for billions of years and most of the results are there it's all waiting to be discovered in these databases of sequence DNA but you need AI to be able to go in and actually find these patterns now if it's true much like if you guys think about how drugs are made it's literally a guy or a handful of guys are wandering around the Amazon forest looking for like obscure plants we've never seen before or soil samples we've never seen before that have like big biological impact you get this so many drug breakthroughs are found exactly this way AI is going to do something far more profound which is it's going to be able to sequence all of the databases that we already have but it's also going to just based on first principles because so much biology works in like a lock and key fashion it's going to look at all of this stuff and go okay wait a second if you were to make a cut here and you were to insert this DNA here and that DNA here because all of this runs mechanically believe it or not it's actually how your DNA works then we know that this would be the outcome and so it's been able to fold protein it's now doing insane work on genomics in terms of exactly how the human genome works and so if in one 21 hour session we've already been able to find another thing that's like CRISPR that may and I do want to emphasize may because it's unknown where this goes so far that may be able to do something similar may be able to do it in a better fashion then this could be another breakthrough on the scale of CRISPR now even if this one doesn't end up giving us the ability to do profound treatments like CRISPR has allowed us to do sickle cell anemia or many cancers but shows us the kind of thing that we need to look for now all of a sudden you get into the kind of space we got into with protein folding protein folding allows us to basically in a simulation figure out what drugs are going to work So what proteins would we need to create and what configuration to solve what problem in the body?

And that ability to take these gigantic data sets and find useful things that have been waiting to be discovered this whole time, but it's now able to actually do that, these are going to be game changing from a medical perspective. So again, we need to understand it's early days, we don't know exactly what this is going to be yet, but whenever you step back and you're talking about AI, and whenever I hear people getting caught up in the fear, I wanna remind them, I wanna remind myself that what AI is already giving us is extraordinary.

And so it's not like we're fucking around with some tool that all it can do is possibly end civilization, that this is just gonna be a bunch of drones on a battlefield killing people and that's all it's ever gonna give us, so why on earth would we be doing this? The reality is it is going to radically extend human life, it is going to improve things in ways that we can't even imagine. So as we think about the dangers and we start sort of running imaginary scenarios because that's what they are right now, we've gotta counterbalance that with what can it give us.

And so this was a really exciting potential breakthrough that I can't wait to see where this goes. And you need to read it as the tip of a very, very, very, very large iceberg, because right now the cost of these agents doing that work is dropping dramatically. If you guys know Imad Mostak, he's one of the most important CEOs in AI, he helped build, God, I always forget the name of this, it's one of the open AI companies, it was like the first open company, Stable Diffusion, thank you.

So Stable Diffusion, he launched that company, took it to being valued at well over a billion dollars. So he's now working on a new AI company and he said that models that he has seen are already a thousand times cheaper for a token. So now you start getting things that are both faster and cheaper, and this stuff starts to become trivial. Things that we have now today will become trivial in price say a year from now. And the models that are a year old are already trivial in price.

So that's where this kind of stuff gets incredible because right now the thing that people are gonna throw back at you is, okay, sure, AI solved some portion of the Navy or Stokes mathematical problem, but it costs the equivalent of $20 million. Well, what happens when that $20 million becomes $20,000? So all of this stuff and then $2,000 and then $200, like that's the kind of trajectory that the cost per token is on right now. So when you start extrapolating some of the benefits, you start understanding why people don't just wanna blanket say, all right, yeah, we're gonna shut it all down because it could at some point down the road maybe be a problem.

But right now today it's already leading to some extraordinary breakthroughs that matter in life right now today. Radiology being a great one, cancer treatments already coming forward as being treatable that we didn't think were treatable in like an individualistic way. It's really pretty exciting. It's interesting we bring up the medical field because I also feel like AI in the medical field is the most logical use of AI. I don't think there's much like outside of that that I find as practical. And so when looking at this, drug companies, they often skip out on these types of rare diseases that Claude has discovered and figured out.

I believe we also have the blood disease that it discovered recently. And because these companies tend to skip out on making medication or treatments for these rare diseases because the market share is so small, do you think AI changes that math and opens up these companies to actually start focusing in on these more niche diseases that affect less people? The interesting thing is whether the companies end up doing it or not will be a financial incentive question. If they've got the financial incentive, they'll do it.

And if they don't, they won't. But what it does do is it allows a researcher now to rapidly discover something profound that has a huge impact where whether they're doing it for the love of the game, the contribution to humanity or whatever, these things will get done. Part of the reason that these discoveries didn't happen in the past was to run the research lab was so ungodly expensive that you just had to go to a corporation or to a government and say, please give me a grant to study this thing.

But now you can imagine, really, if EMOD is correct and already right now, he said it hasn't been released yet but it's coming out in the next couple of months, that a model from, I think, OpenAI, the model that they had in January, that model is now approaching 1,000 times cheaper. And so if that ends up being true and that comes out, then now you've got a lab that can use something for just absolute pennies, for millions of tokens. And so now you've got somebody that's like, oh, nights and weekends, I'm just trying to solve this problem.

This is why one thing that I'm really learning in my own use with AI is that when I'm dumb, the AI is dumb, and when I'm smart, the AI is smart. And when you put inexpensive AI in the hands of a researcher that obviously understands the topic incredibly well, then they're going to be able to push that research forward dramatically. And so then will you see other companies be formed where it's like the startup cost is so, so, so, so much lower that now that guy doesn't feel like he has to go beg and scrape for money.

He's like, oh, I spent whatever, $200 a month. I knew what problem to pursue. I knew how to get this agent to go do the thing. I don't need to go to a Pfizer or something to try to get this done because the cost is ridiculously small. And at a minimum, what we might see are things where this is probably the most profoundly impactful is that if researchers get together and say, okay, we've been siloed for too long. We're going to create a repository of all the things that our AIs are discovering.

And so what I want is to know what research you're finding, and I'm going to share my research with you, which really means the AIs now are going to be sharing back all of that data, meta-reading it, and now you advance at, what, 100 times, 1,000 times the rate that medical breakthroughs were happening before with perfect memory. So that's where this stuff really, you don't even have to get to recursive self-improvement. You just have to put that layer where you've got 10,000 agents attempting to solve one problem, each going off in a different direction, coming back, communicating with each other, stacking that knowledge.

And so when you look at, there's a phenomenal book called The Rational Optimist by a guy named Matt Ridley. He said when you look back at history, you see a couple things. One, you see there are certainly blips, but basically a never-ending curve of improvement through innovation. But also, you see that each generation is standing on the shoulders of the generation before it. And when you have to do that in human time, and it takes 100 years, it's a lot less thrilling, it's a lot less impactful than when you can do this in AI time, where you've got 100 years collapsing down to 21 hours.

So that's where all of this stuff gets incredibly transformational. So you would say, though, that we are on the path, if things get more affordable to run, to those types of profit incentives being basically eliminated because you can do everything at a cheaper volume. Yes, I won't say that all of it is going to get eliminated. That's going to come down to where does that ultimately interface with the world. If you have an incredible medical breakthrough, but it doesn't go through the FDA, that's gonna stall out.

So there's still gonna need to be some element of the system then ultimately picks this thing up and runs with it. And so there is where we're going to have to trust the system to, meaning the overall medical establishment, so that, let's say, a doctor has incentives to make sure I'm treating this patient, I want a one-of-one assessment, and so creating an incentive for them to engage with AI, to be using that as a standard part of their practice. Now, my instinct is that's gonna come through insurance, that insurance companies are gonna force the issue, and they're gonna say, I'm gonna have a lot fewer payouts if you guys are working with AI.

First of all, human doctors make mistakes. AI doctors are less likely to make a mistake, and they're gonna be far more likely to be literally up to the second, because when one AI learns it, all AIs learn it that have access to that information. And so I think what you're gonna see spinning up are either the companies that already exist, the big companies, will start integrating AI furiously into their setup, or some combination of patients are going to force the issue, doctors are going to force the issue, insurance companies are gonna force the issue, or all of the above.

And we'll find that this, much like what's going on in radiology right now, where at this point, it would legitimately be malpractice to read a radiology scan without having AI look at it as well. AI finds smaller things, it finds things earlier, it has a higher accuracy rate. And so right now, it isn't even that we're using less humans, it's just that the humans are working with the AI. And now we're finding that we can get so much better results out of the radiology that it's likely to fall into Jevin's paradox, where it's like, the more AI gets involved, the cheaper the whole system gets, the more effective the whole system gets, the more it's being used.

Now, will ultimately humans be completely removed from this scenario? Maybe down the road, but that day isn't today. And so right now, it's really proving to be a massive breakthrough. Yeah, I think it'll also be really interesting, because this will almost be, if things keep getting cheaper with AI, and they find a way to make it use less energy, it's healthier for the environment, all these things, I think it'll be a very revealing thing on the medical industry. Because like you're saying, if we are making these things at a cheaper rate, and we're doing it in greater volumes, then logistically, the price should go down, right?

Insurance should be more affordable, medication will be more affordable. So it'll be really interesting to watch that over the next years of, no, do they like to make the argument of, well, we're using AI, it's an expensive thing, even though we know tokens are cheaper, do they keep raising prices? So I think that'll be a really interesting thing to watch play out. This is exactly why you do not want regulatory capture. Because if you keep the models open source, then all of this stuff, basically the price races towards zero, and it really becomes, it's a commoditized thing, you can get intelligence from anybody.

And I think there's a one-two punch coming. If open source is allowed to exist, what's going to end up happening is people are going to be massively incentivized to use AI. I mean, massively. Because right now, people are hesitant because they're worried their ideas are gonna get stolen. They have this sort of conflict about, well, am I really necessary? And so I think people are pushing back against AI partly because of the way that it's developed right now, which is I have access to the same thing that everybody has access to.

I don't feel special, I don't feel protected. And so that puts people in this sort of emotional death spiral which makes them push back against something that is obviously better for them. So what I think is gonna happen, open AI becomes super common, open source, open weighted, and companies will go, or individuals will go, okay, I'm gonna take that, I'm gonna bring it in-house. And there will inevitably be solutions that make that process easy because right now it's a very technical process. But there will for sure, they're already being developed, I know that.

So they'll create sort of a UI layer. It probably won't be exactly that, but that's the right metaphor or way to think about it. So somebody gives you a UI layer in which you can now tweak that model to give results that are you plus the AI. So now you effectively have an AI that is you, but you know everything about everything. But it's filtered through your particular lens, what you're trying to create. And so anybody using their own AI will get different results than you.

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brand. Visit cash.app.legal.podcast for full. Closures. Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action. So now, this becomes a productivity boost because, meaning for the economy, because it's not one generic thing that gets all the pushback and gives sort of milquetoast results. It becomes a massive increase in the productivity of the most productive people in the world. And so when you look at what growth in GDP really is, is more productivity per person. AI will be the ultimate productivity increase per person. But we have to get over some of the things that are stopping people from doing that, cost being a massive one, not having the UI moment so that it's easy for somebody who isn't technically savvy to bring it in and feel like they can get their arms around it and not let other people see what they're doing.

And when those are met with a sufficient amount of energy production and the US sort of stepping off of its own head, if you will, from a regulatory perspective, I think there's gonna be a massive boom. And that, like once, this is why the Alex Karp thing, and I know he's a controversial figure, but when he started talking about that need for that middle layer, that's when I felt in myself something unlock. Because, look, I've embraced AI and I've sort of gone headlong into it, but there's always been this anxiety around, I have access to the same thing everybody else has access to, and I wanna be able to make this thing mine.

I wanted to output something that reflects me. And then that feels like something that's supercharging me instead of me becoming watered down to the AI, the AI becomes an extension of me. And I think, while I worry that doesn't sound like much to people, but the reality is that will be a fundamental rewriting of the relationship between humans and AI, like fundamental. And I think that will be a big part of what stops a lot of the hesitancy when somebody realizes, oh, wait, like I was just doing this the other day and Drew sends his love and he'll sort of be in and out for the next while.

But I was talking to Eric, who's just off camera, and Drew about using AI for music. And they're both musicians. And so there was a hesitancy, right? Like, I don't know if I wanna use it. It doesn't make me feel good. It's almost too good was Eric's exact quote. And I was like, no, no, no, you're approaching this in the wrong way because what you're getting is an output that feels generic. It doesn't feel like it's you. It doesn't feel like you're saying a unique thing and this just happens to be another tool.

And in the same way that synthesizers unlocked, okay, I can't play guitar, but I can play piano. Well, now you can play guitar with a synthesizer. So it's like that unlocks something. I don't think that made people a fake musician in any way, shape, or form. They were, it unlocked a level of creativity. And I can see you disagree, so we'll get to that in a second. Bear with me. There was a clarifying question. Okay, fine. But I was gonna let you finish. I just am thinking my question through, but you go ahead.

Okay, so I think the right way to think about this is, okay, I've got this tool. The difference between it makes me feel good and it makes me feel bad is whether I think I'm driving this creation, but this creation truly could not be done by anybody else because they don't have my mind, my insights, my taste. And when AI is dumb enough, let's say, generic enough, that you feel a massive part of you is lost in going into AI, I get why a creative is like, I don't like this.

It puts out something that's technically brilliant, that scares me, but also I got lost in that. It did not output something that is me. And that's where it becomes, I think, deeply distressing for people. When you feel like I can write a sonata in seven minutes and it's legitimately my expression and now I can build an entire musical world like Drew was trying to do, like a full-blown musical, and it's like, oh, that's not beyond my reach anymore. I don't have to go convince people who've got other jobs and shit.

I can just do it with the AI. And I'm not getting lost in that. This is exactly what I had in my mind. So that was the huge unlock for me with the Kaizen art. I can't draw, which means I'm stuck. I've got ideas in my head of what I want the game to look like, but I'm stuck because I can't draw it out. And so now I'm constantly hung up by the cost of trying to get somebody else to do it, the inability to explain what I'm trying to do, the iteration rate is honestly the biggest problem because with AI, I can do literally 100 iterations, at least, 250 maybe, in the time it takes an artist to do one.

So when you're at 100 to one or 250 to one, dude, what you can do is insane. But you can't feel like you got lost in that. You have to feel like, holy shit, it gave me exactly what's in my head. This is totally different than anything else out there. This is not some copy pasta from something that it found in the training data. It is legitimately a unique synthesis of the two of us. Yeah, I think, and I'll preface this because I know chat's gonna explode.

You know my stance on AI. I have no problem with it in concept. I think it's a very powerful tool. I think it's gonna change the world in many ways. I just don't like the way we're handling it in general right now. So I think where my hangup is, and this is the question I have for you, is when you consume something like art, that is AI, does it not feel empty to you? Because when I see a song that had AI used to make it and that's playing the instruments, to me, I'm like, well, then what's the point of listening to the song, right?

I'm listening to a bunch of ones and zeros and it's someone's expression, great. But to me, it's like the thing I love art is that it is inherently human. There was a journey to get there. Someone had to learn that instrument. Someone had to learn that. I agree with all of that. So what I'm saying is the very difference, people are interfacing with AI right now in a way where the AI takes over. They became a prompt engineer and the AI became the creative and you can oftentimes, the vast majority of the time, there's no soul there.

Partly because the execution lacks a little something and then partly because the human individuality, which is part of what we like in a piece of art, also dissipates. What I'm saying is it isn't gonna be like that for much longer because I'm already having experiences with AI where my vision is what's coming out on the other end. It's unique to me. You can, like, I've now created things for Kaizen from a visual perspective you cannot find on Pinterest. They don't exist. You can look and look and look, check every IP you've ever seen ever in your life and it's not there.

Now, I started creating things and somebody would look at it and go, oh, that's like this. But now it's gotten to the point where you don't have an anchor reference anymore because it's me creating something that hasn't been created before. That is only going to get better. And right now, I don't feel like I can protect those outputs and the feeling shift for me of going from I've got an idea but it just forces it to be like something it's already seen, that was not a pleasant experience.

And what I found is, first of all, working with AI has made me a better artist because I actually know the language. I know how to communicate to the AI in the way that an artist thinks about whether it's the interplay of light and shadow, right? Something called chiaroscuro. So you start learning about things like that. You start learning about render types. You start learning about differences in body composition, line weighting, things like that. So now you're speaking in the language of an artist but you don't have to have the physical dexterity.

I get that but I think what my point is is you're losing that journey, right? Like the reason I love making film is not, I don't ever try to find ways to make film easier. I like taking the journey. So when I made my first short film, it was in an anthology that got put on Tubi. And when I set out to do it, I said, I'm not paying anyone to make the visual effects for this film. I'm going to go to YouTube, go sneak into classes at my college and I'm going to learn this process myself.

I spent four months learning After Effects all on my own and I loved that journey. The minute AI is involved, I almost feel like it depreciates the value of your time spent on it, right? I mean, like you are giving yourself more time to go do other things but to me, I'm like. I'm not. I did not make this. Like this is something that, now if you're using it to be like, how does this work? As long as that is true, then people aren't going to get into it nearly as much.

The part that I'm saying, we need to move on, but the part that I'm saying. Oh yeah, sorry. Which will be the last time I'll talk on the subject but is there is a breakthrough coming for you where you feel like the AI extended your capabilities. It did not diffuse your capabilities and turn it into something that you weren't. It became your film crew. It allowed you to do the thing you wanted to do that allowed you to create something that either wouldn't have, it wouldn't have existed.

And so that is where people, their relationship to AI will fundamentally change where you're like, oh yeah, this is me. Nobody, even with access to the same AI, they will not be able to give you this result. This is uniquely me. And just like I don't feel when you have to hire a cinematographer, I don't feel like, oh, this is somehow not me or it's somehow not human. It's like, no, that's just the way it works. You need a tool and one of those tools is another person's mind.

Now what people are going to see is that, oh, I can get my vision unadulterated through this tool that does the execution of something that was so expensive, so time-consuming previously or so outside my skillset, I just couldn't create this thing. So yeah, period. We'll leave it there. Speaking of argument, Xi and Trump have not been having them recently. We actually got some pandas that are going to the Atlanta Zoo soon. But Tom, tell us about that. What's happening with Xi and Trump right now? Politics are an absolute mess.

It is all a lie from top to bottom. I understand why people are absolutely disgusted. You've got Trump and Xi. They are both fighting against each other as hard as you can imagine behind the scenes, but both just wanting to make sure that we don't go to war. Xi literally said, it is possible for us to avoid Thucydides' trap. But Xi knows exactly what Thucydides' trap is. That is such a hilarious insult directly to Trump's face. Thucydides' trap is this. There's a rising superpower that's basically going to take over and a declining superpower.

And they end up in war because the declining superpower is such a dumbass that they can't just accept second place. So I'm like, this is so funny. Both of these guys want to be in pole position. It is the natural way of things for people to understand that, hey, only one of us can be top dog and a whole lot of tension and drama and Cold War happens when we're these two peers. China and the US, just from what is the truth about humans, will only march in lockstep as long as that is the thing that is maximally beneficial to the two of them.

That is the only thing that's going to create peace. The other thing that creates peace is when one is clearly dominant and the other is clearly subservient. And I assure you, look at their behavior. This is exactly how they're acting. They're both acting like, hey, if you would just accept second place, everything would be fine. So do not be bamboozled. Now, in terms of thinking that these two guys are holding hands and hugging each other and singing Kumbaya, they're politicians and they understand. You can think the other side is dastardly, but you still have to work with them, okay?

So two breaths from now, Trump is gonna say two things at the same time. I've got a great relationship with Xi. I love him, strong leader, he's great. And by the way, fuck him, 100% tariffs on everything. So that is a guaranteed way that this game goes. This is where America is not being clear-eyed. Things have been so good for so long, we completely forget that we are in like blood warfare with other nations, that you must have strong borders, protect yourself. Other people will come and take what's yours if you show any weakness.

Don't believe me? Look at what's going on in Russia right now. Don't believe me? Look at what we did in Venezuela. Don't believe me? Look at what happens if Iran gets nuclear weapons. This is the way of things. People are going to maneuver to try to make sure that they get the access to the scarce resources. Now, I love that Trump and Xi are doing everything they can to be diplomatic. That is the right fucking answer. You want these two playing the game. You want them to come together and make out like, hey, we can do this peacefully.

There's no reason for us to throw punches because they're already doing that behind the scenes. They are already trying to beat each other. Trump is 1000% trying to win the AI race. Xi is 1000% trying to win the AI race. Neither of them is like, oh no, we're just going to be fine. Like, we're going to be buddies. They both want to win. They both want to win economically. That's why they both use whatever leverage they have to get what they want. And you can't be one-sided about it.

Like, even if you just go America's the aggressor, fine. Then China's going to have to respond in kind and they're not fucking stupid. Or China's the aggressor and the US is going to have to do what's in their best interest. They're going to have to defend themselves. So the setup, show me the incentives and I will show you the outcome. So by being weak and letting another country take dominance over you, you become subservient. Now, it happens to basically everybody in the world. But everybody is trying to get out from under that.

And the second they can, they will. So watching this play out, I was just reminded of the real nature of the way that societies work. You are going to say niceties when you're together, but then ultimately you're going to pursue your interests. So brace yourselves. Things are going to get very difficult between the US and China because our interests diverge. They are not aligned. So where they align will cooperate and where they diverge, we will start in a cold war that'll play out largely economically, but it'll go to a hot war if it has to.

So I love that they're both trying to avoid it. I think that is very wise. I think neither of them want to get into a fight because they understand how much damage they can do to each other. That is very good. We should all be very happy about that, that they're being very sensible, but nobody should be confused about how we're going to march forward in the future. Yeah. So look, that is the reality. So great power politics is the way of the world. And the only reason for so long it didn't seem.

that was the way of the world was because everybody was subservient to the united states and so we are now about to find out what it looks like when not everybody is subservient to the united states and it looks like russia invading ukraine it looks like china invading taiwan it looks like the u.s trying to bomb the shit out of iran like that's what it looks like people scrambling for a new world order that they will uh use force for not always kinetic force but they will use force uh china is very good at using infrastructure uh at using their manufacturing capabilities uh debt as a way of making sure that you do what they want the u.s is very good at using the financial system and military power to get you to do what they want but that's the game man if people aren't clear-eyed about that the world is going to be confusing this is why i always derange when people talk about what's going on in the middle east specifically with israel palestine it's like kids that they're not going to hold hands and march into the future so one of them is going to be dominant over the other and right now for a long time we were cool with israel being uh the kid that was on the come up now that they're on top everybody's like fuck those kids we want to see the weak guys get on top but then as soon as they get on top they're going to press the advantage so it's like you've got to navigate that scenario understanding this is not good guys versus bad guys this is power versus weakness that's it that's the game the one thing chi and trump did agree on though is that no longer are we calling it artificial intelligence we're going to now call it super intelligence this is full retard i hate this every word out of his mouth on this is so stupid i i want to shake him like a fucking baby until he stops talking that that is so dumb please for the love of god it's just dumb but it is really interesting to go back to that world order comment because i think the 2020s are going to be defined as a decade of of dominance i guess this is the best way to put it in like a liberation order unless you mean something different well so i would say the three big superpowers traditionally have always been america china russia right they've been probably the most powerful which ones would you say are the big ones uh well uk until the end of world war ii was the mac daddy oh i'm talking post-world war like in the last 20 years for sure yeah so i feel like those three have been making moods moves this decade right it started with ukraine and russia which we talked about um it then moved on to um america and iran and now on the horizon we're looking at taiwan and china right i mean we're seeing these these three powers understanding that they're all kind of coming up to the same uh level of power whether that means someone came down someone came up whatever it may be and now they're all fighting for it right like it's it's uh vindicating your position that yeah we are in an era where there is going to be someone who takes the lead on the global stage who is going for that who's up for grabs what is going to push that we always talk about ai um but yeah so what do you think the next 10 years looks like for this power grab well russia's a little bro to china so you can write them off they're trying to be a regional power are they going to make a play to sort of bully russia uh bully europe maybe uh a lot of that is going to depend on whether this is why europe is playing a very dangerous game with the u.s uh because if europe gets alienated from the u.s and the u.s just shrinks back to um you know something that's call it greater north america that runs from the tip of canada down to south america um if we do something like that and then we just let europe basically implode and get into a fight with russia um it'll be interesting to see europe historically obviously has been able to stand up to russia because their economy has been better but if russia actually learns some of the economic lessons from china and europe keeps trying to regulate itself to death then europe uh europe could find itself being swayed by russia far more than it has been historically so we'll see what happens there um the u.s is going to come out of this fine geographically we're in such a strong position uh we still control the global money supply it will take over the next 10 years it would take longer than that to play that out um if ai comes to pass and we can actually grow our way out to a more reasonable debt place uh we'd survive the 10 years if the u.s implodes under its debt that would be the scariest thing that's just like a straight hand the baton to china but china has its own economic woes so the only thing that's sort of working for us in terms of holding the u.s and china into balance of power is we're both in a rough place economically china's bringing energy on so much faster i give the edge to china also china is manufacturing where the u.s is financialized so from that perspective if the u.s doesn't wake the fuck up uh i think that your china ends up continuing to edge ahead as you start talking in 10 year time horizons i could certainly see china if they can solve for their demographic challenges uh pulling away from the u.s which i think over the next 10 years unless we figure out our internal fighting uh are going to find ourselves weaker and weaker getting crushed under debt which will exacerbate the populism which will exacerbate our internal tensions uh and so if we start even even if the fracture is softer and it just happens at a policy level we could find the u.s beginning to um push more towards like loosely cooperating states instead of a strong nation i could see something like that happening so yeah we're we are going to have to either really make an ai productivity miracle which is possible but there's huge problems uh or we are going to have to cut entitlements and when we cut entitlements i think that is a uh it's a breaking point between the left and the right and i don't know how that's going to play out but that's not going to be easy gotcha and speaking on ai since it's the central thing between china and america because yeah russia with everything they've done with ukraine they just tanked their superpower status so fast with that uh and they were never quite like a superpower they're it was like runner-up they're a major power yeah but i wouldn't put them in superpower there's only two superpowers there's the u.s and china if you factor military there's only the u.s so it's um we're not quite there yet that's why the 10-year time horizon is an interesting time horizon i don't think russia russia will never be able to get in in any of our lifetimes they're not going to get out from under china barring something i cannot fathom so they'll be sort of the uk to the u.s it'll be russia to china um which is fascinating knowing the history because it used to be the exact opposite way in the same way that u.s used to be a little bro to england and then overtook them uh china used to be little bro hardcore to russia and then completely left them in their dust uh which is very interesting to track that out in terms of is a lot of that the friction between russia and europe if russia could have gotten their shit together and partnered with europe could they have become uh the dominant force in europe probably but alas man everybody trying to be communist out here and uh it just doesn't fucking work that's why even though they're communist in name they're not they're authoritarian uh but very very effective at being free market um yeah um but back to the ai thing do you think this expands to space because i know you were briefly you had on there compute exist in space do you think the competition for ai compute in space because right uh cold war was a big part of it was like let's send things into the atmosphere right and so looking at ai being the central conflict do you think we take this thing further to space between once again america and china you know it's really interesting i've never thought about this before so space is so big there's no reason for that to be a conflict they'll all go to space if it actually is cheaper uh elon's pretty good at judging where things are going he said basically all compute will be in space because cooling is free and nobody gets to piss and moan about it being in their backyard uh so that seems like it's going to play out but i do wonder if in space those things are so fucking vulnerable that we don't find in 10 or 15 years that these are like overland oil pipelines that once somebody decides they're going to take one out that they just start like evaporating your data centers and so that'd be interesting anyway that's way too speculative so i'll leave that on the side for now all i can do is say if elon says that compute is likely to go into space it's going to go into space i just wonder if it's going to end up being like when we sent needles into space for satellites like do you remember when we did that i forget what year yeah so maybe it wasn't america there was a country that sent a bunch of needles up into the space because they believed no they believed that it was going to help with satellite connection what needles in space because they conduct and transmit the that was the theory i think um so what are you actually worried about the world too much space debris well i just worry like given that it's going to become a race between america and the united states we're just going to start sending things up there so what i wonder is yes space junk but also like how does that affect our our push in terms of um scientific discovery are we rushing things like that kind of thing because i think the minute you're in a race it gets dicey interesting okay so there's no doubt that the minute you're in a race that people push hard and that you have to be very careful about what your guard rails are i certainly don't want to betray my own belief on that but also when you're in a race you're far more innovative things move far faster and when it's consequential even more so so yes i want to see the us and china in a race for ai i think it'll be better for the globe but i do want to see the regulation around what i keep calling weapons grade gotcha and i did find it it was the united states in the 1960s during our last space race we sent up a million of millions of copper needles in the early 60s for the cold war era for project west ford which was basically going to give us a lot more in theory uh satellite connection okay and so your read on that was that was a really dumb thing that we did that will have a consequence at some point let's not keep doing dumb things like that just because we're in a race uh no my read on it is i just think it's it's are we entering another space race where we're just throwing shit i think it's just that is my question good or bad um i think it's good but i think it needs to be have some level of constraint that i don't think we did in the 60s yeah because like the needle thing was very underdeveloped research project and they just did it before they had the conclusion yeah and look putting stuff in space specifically with no concept of how we clean it up is not a good idea uh i think it was the south koreans south korea or china i forget which blew up a satellite trying to get rid of it and everyone was like what the fuck are you yeah like you can't have all that debris in space that was the craziest shit we've ever seen so look there are things there where i get an international community is going to complain and try to get regulation and some mild regulation makes sense but boy do i wish that i could just get people on board with the reality governments are retarded by nature and given that they are retarded given that they uh try to consume all the resources for themselves given that they try to grow at all costs that they don't try to solve problems they try to make sure that the problems are persistent so that they can justify getting more resources don't let government get big jesus christ like that's the thing that fucking winds me up now there's a corporate responsibility dear people that own a corporation stop waiting for somebody to tell you to be a good person be a fucking good person stop being a jackass that's also a part of this that kind of stuff is fucking grotesque and so understanding public backlash against companies and saying yeah i'm not going to buy from that asshole because if they always need somebody on the outside to put a gun to their head to say behave like an actual fucking human that is a problem in and of itself but jesus giving the power over to the government they will abuse it people learn very different lessons in covid and i learned that my government will lock me up at a moment's notice that they are not going to let a good crisis go to waste they're going to be authoritarian in the fucking extreme and they're going to lie and convince people that it's all for their good that is terrible and that we all have to accept a certain amount of risk in life to avoid a tyrannical parent listen there's a reason that there's a concept of the great devouring mother mothers want their kids to succeed but there's something that ends up happening to some women where they are so concerned they're so loving that the child never develops the the parent just needs to be needed so badly that they just completely destroy their entire life do you guys know the story of the author of peter pan that shit is crazy his mother was like chronically ill whether she had munchausen syndrome or not i don't know but she was chronically ill and she wanted him by her side and she was like never grow up always be my baby and so the fucking guy literally didn't grow up he had the body of a child it is one of the craziest fucking stories ever man also the power of the mind holy shit so that's what governments are attempting to do to us right now we we are creating the great nanny state so listen i don't want people slinging random shit into space either and creating bigger problems for us but god damn the government is not going to be the solution and a one world government is the worst of all worlds so let's definitely not do that speaking of authoritarians not letting a good crisis go to waste benjamin netanyahu took the stage in new york city to uh give his you guys should see the way that ryan talks about netanyahu in uh our private um documents i just wrote he's a genocide air yeah i imagine that there are a lot of people in the feed that actually agree with ryan on this one well i mean he's committing a genocide so but he took the stage and a lot of people stormed out of uh the building and i noticed as well something interesting about his speech is that he really didn't talk in depth on like what he's doing for other people it's about what other people can do for him i don't know did you watch his whole speech i did so i'm just curious your thoughts on it as a whole so if you're a world leader so the story that he painted was basically um and i didn't know this story but his brother was in the idf his brother was the only soldier killed in an attempt to get back like 134 hostages that were taken at one point uh and they got them all back and he was the only soldier that died and so i imagine that's actually part of how netanyahu became politically popular uh because he could sort of ride on the story about his brother and so that was a big part of the story here is basically listen what my brother said when we were originally getting attacked back in the 60s i think uh the sixth this is where like i i don't know israeli history well enough but it was when they were surrounded by all the countries that they end up all attacking at once and israel ends up winning and so he was in jordan and syria which one's egypt jordan syria thank you uh he was i think studying in the u.s so he flies back anyway to talk to his brother uh sees his brother who's about to be deployed and he says what's going to happen and his brother says we have to win it's the only choice and which by the way is a gangster way to respond they're one of my favorite uh hyperbolic phrases is what do you do when you're all alone, out of ammunition, and surrounded by 200 enemy soldiers?

You kill them all. I love that underdog energy of just never giving up. So anyway, he's telling the story. His brother gives that energy. Cool, they end up winning. And so now he's saying basically the same thing is happening now. The world is turning against us. We've got to be prepared to stand up and fight. And so what do you do when your back is against the wall like it is for us now? And he lists out all the different fronts, seven fronts or whatever that they're fighting wars on.

And he says, we have to win. It's our only choice. And so this is one of those, from a sociological perspective, I find utterly fascinating because people are parsing this as if there are good guys and bad guys. And I'm not sure why, take for instance, why does Islam get a pass in terms of colonizing all of the Middle East? But they do get a pass for that for reasons I don't understand. I don't think anybody needs to give Israel a pass. I'm not looking at that.

I look at Israel in the following way. They ran a playbook. They rolled up, whether they had historical ties to me is irrelevant. They rolled up on an area that already had citizens and they said, we're going to bring a bunch of people into this region. We're going to gain political and economic power. And then we're going to declare a state. And it worked. And it's like, I would expect anybody that has that happen to them to be mad as hell. If Dearborn, Michigan decides that they're going to be a state, I'm going to be mad as hell about it.

So it's like, I get it. I get why people are pissed off about that, but it's been a long time now. And so at some point you've got to move forward. And I've talked about this a gazillion times. If you look at what happened in Cyprus, it's the same shit, but militarily it happened. Turkey rolled in and said, half this bitch is mine now. And that was it. They drew a line in the island. If you're on the wrong side of the island, you lost everything.

Your house, fuck you, don't care. Any property, it's ours now, bye-bye. And that was 50 years ago now. More recent than what happened in Israel-Palestine. And what did the people on the side of the island that is still Greek do? They were just like, we got to move on. Now they protest and they still do things, but they just fucking moved on. They started thinking about their kids and building something out. So you've got an ideology that is creating problems in the Middle East. And the fact that people don't look at this and go, both sides of these guys will attack each other.

So this is not like one side is just some psychotic that doesn't have reason to be super fucking paranoid or angry as hell. So then you go, okay, what people are really mad about is one side is strong as fuck, and they're just standing on the neck of the other guy. That's what people are mad about. So the question becomes, okay, well, if they lose, what's the other side gonna do? Will they be kind and generous and be like, okay, we won. Remember, this is what the U.S.

did. The U.S. could have stood on the neck of Japan for all of time, but did they? No, they did not. The U.S. could have stood on the neck of Germany for all of time, but did they? No, they did not. They helped them rebuild. So do we think that's what Palestine and Hamas is gonna do? Because if we do, cool. Like, if that's really your thinking, then at least I get where you're coming from. But my mental map goes something more like they actually wanna win.

They wanna be the strong side. They wanna stand on the neck of the other guy. So now we're just doing this back and forth bullshit. So then I go, how the fuck do we actually get out of this totally retarded situation? And the bad news is it's bleak, because the way the human mind works, once you decide that you've gotta get revenge, people get dark real fucking fast. And you're watching Israel get revenge, and it's dark. It's dark, it's sinister, it's evil, it's grotesque. What happens if the roles are reversed?

It's more killing. So that all comes down to what your mental map is of, okay, cool, they win, Israel loses, they put down their guns. Is it slaughter? Is it they get booted? Or is it, no, no, no, we just, we get our right to return, we go in, it's all peaceful, it's democratic, it's lovely. Yeah, I don't hear people talk a lot about that. I think they would be like, you guys need to get the fuck out. I could be wrong, it's very possible. But that is where what you believe will happen if Israel loses will determine, I think, a lot of your thoughts here.

We talk a lot about Israel and America's relationship, not just us, but like. Do we? I think we hardly touch it. Man, I think the audience fucking hates it. Well, I mean society. Dear, dear, yes, one second, but dear audience, it is my mental map of you guys, you don't want us talking about this shit. And if you don't, eventually I'll stop, but yeah, so anyway, let me know in the comments if you find this interesting or if this is something you're just like, yeah, no, not interested.

But I was just gonna show one highlight that I think we can pull out of this, which is the closest he got to talking about America, which was Benjamin Netanyahu talking about October 7th being the equivalent of 16 9-11s. This means for a country of 10 million. Proportionately, this is equal to 40,000 innocent Americans slaughtered in less than 24 hours. Pause it for a second. All right, bro, what's the math on the Palestinians? So how many have you killed? As a proportion, it ain't gonna look good.

So yeah, this is math that cuts two ways. I get what he's trying to do, and I get it, and October 7th was an absolute abomination. Yeah, something that I still can't believe that people were cheering for that. That is the wildest shit ever. So yeah, but this math is not good for him. So yeah, while I understand the impulse. 16 times 9-11, 16 9-11. I think the math was just off on his numbers anyway. Well, I don't know if the, I didn't run the math, the fact check on that, but he's just trying to talk per capita.

So it's like, yeah, listen, America, you guys hear that number and you think that it's not a lot, but our country is infinitesimally small compared to yours, and so it, for us, was a much bigger trauma. Now, one, there's an argument that you can just say, what the fuck are you doing? Like, per capita, mildly useful for the history books, but a human life is a human life, and so there were, whatever, 1,200 human lives taken that day. It is an abomination in all capital letters.

It would be an abomination at a much smaller number. So that, to me, is not a winning argument, but once you start going per capita, it's just gonna be used back against you. This is where no one will ever be able to talk nakedly about what this is, and because no one can ever talk nakedly, because it would just make the conversation so much worse, people will fucking spiral, that they all have to try to dress it up in pretty language and all that stuff and get people on technicalities, that it's deranging, and the international community is, I don't know, almost doesn't seem to make, like, I'm not sure what they expect to come of it other than the following.

We wanna use political pressure to defang, maybe is how they think of it, Israel, so that what Palestinians can get right of return. Be curious to see if that's sort of the way that people think that it's gonna play out, and then I'm so curious to see if you said, okay, plant a flag, where do you think this goes? Is it just, okay, Jewish people end up getting outvoted. It is what it is. We shouldn't want theocratic regimes anyway, but everything is gonna be peaceful, or do you see massive bloody civil war inside the country?

And so that would be my stake, like, they can't get along now. Massive bloody civil war. Like, there's no world in which they're all just like, we can live together. Is it a war if it's one-sided, though? Because, like, looking at what Netanyahu's done to the Palestinians the past three years, I mean, it's an endless bombing campaign, and many people are comparing the damage that done by their strikes to that of, like, six atomic bombs. So I think I have a totally different mental map of this.

Here's how I look at it. One side is strong, the other side is weak. And the way that the world actually works, it actually works like this. I understand we don't want it, I don't want it to work like this. I hate that this is true, but it is true that the strong will do as they will, and the weak will suffer as they must. So that's what you're watching. You are watching one side strong, and they're doing what the fuck they want, and one side is weak.

This is why the U.S. can go do insane shit, and we just, it's a different rule set for us. China can do insane shit. It's just a different rule set. But is that not the problem? Like, why is it that the larger, the stronger power, because they have, like, it's okay for them to have a different rule set? Like, that almost feels- It isn't okay. So what you're confusing is, is it not? The reason that I find this whole conversation deranging is that people are talking about how things ought to be instead of how things actually are.

And I'm just like, make contact with ground reality. This is how humans are. This is how the world actually is. Now what the fuck do we do? And the only answer that I can see is you've got to get them stop looking at each other, stop thinking about each other. Uh, Palestine, the borders are what the fucking borders are. If you want to keep trying to win them, you're gonna have to do so either through pressure internationally, so a form of force, or just start focusing on your own fucking economy.

Accept it and move on. Which, by the way, given the way the world is, that is the far wiser solution, in my opinion. But force is going to be deployed because the diplomacy is going to be to try to isolate Israel, to get them to the point where they are economically weakened such that they cannot stop Palestinians, essentially, from coming back and taking the right of return, to say it in the most neutral way possible. You're saying they're trying to economically weaken the Palestinians. That is the, no, no, no.

Palestine, their only hope to stay purely diplomatic is to weaken Israel economically so much that they can't stop them from coming back in. Now, the other option is kinetic force, and to get so many people to believe in them and be like, this is genocide, kill them, and then other countries go and attack and bomb them. But the stronger force in this situation between Israel and Palestine is not being diplomatic. They are just bombing the hell out of an innocent group of people. Yeah, so? So what you're saying is we have to approach this diplomatically, and we gotta stop looking when we're helping fund Israel as they are taking the non-diplomatic approach.

You're mashing things together, and this is where it gets very dangerous for somebody clipping me out of context. What I'm saying is you've got options before you on the table. We can keep doing the public commentary the way that we're doing it now, which is to talk about how things ought to be, totally devoid of how things are, fucking retarded, it is a waste of time, it's a waste of energy, it will yield absolutely nothing. The other is to make contact with ground reality. You're on a campus saying words, you're protesting, but you want something to happen.

Now tell me what that thing is. It's gonna be economic pressure, it's gonna be military pressure, it's gonna be something. Because what you want, I think all of them would say, if they got actually specific, I want Palestinians to be able to return to their land. That will be the most gentle answer, right? Because most people are not like, oh, it's just a two-state solution with the current borders, right? Can we agree that that's not the presentation that virtually anybody is making? I think it gets conflated, because there are people that you can make arguments for both sides, right?

Like there's one state argument. Oh, we're gonna derail, you gotta give me real specific answers. Well, but you're asking me to make you an argument for the entire Palestinian movement. No, all I'm trying to do is say, you have two options before you, Isra'at, the world, all of us, we can Isra'at this. The second we ought it, it's a waste of time. If we're Is-ing it, then we've gotta be honest about, describe the actual outcome you're looking for. Well, I guess just to get a starter point, the Is is Benjamin Netanyahu is a war criminal perpetuating a genocide against the Palestinians.

Oh my God, you're already in the OTT. I'm giving you the Is. That's not what Is, fuck that. No, no, that's what he's doing. That is a highly contested international criminal court that's passing a judgment. What Is is the fucking U.S. dropped two nuclear bombs on Japan. Why? Because no one could fucking stop us from doing it. And in doing so, partly, obviously I'm oversimplifying, but in dropping two nuclear fucking weapons that killed men, women, children, indiscriminately, fucking pets, everything, dead, turned to fucking ash, and we become the shining hill, shining beacon, you know, city on a hill, okay?

So that was a level of atrocity that the only way you can get around is to be like, well, but it yielded a good outcome and all this. No, the fucking strong country that was able to build the fucking bomb, you couldn't stop them from flying the planes, they dropped fucking bombs on you, you all fucking died, and now you found yourself in a position where it's like, bitch, do you want me to drop a third or not? No, we don't. Rad, we go in, we fucking take over, we can do whatever the fuck we want.

Now, thankfully, we made a smart decision at that point. But what I'm saying is, I don't give a shit about the judgments, because the reality is that thing happened. The reality is Israel is way fucking stronger than Palestine. They are going to do what, there's only two things that will stop them. I agree. Hold on. You asked? There's only two things that will stop them. Okay. I need you to understand, the second you tell me he's a war criminal, I know that you're still back in fucking Ottland, and so it is gonna be a- But that's an issue.

He is a war criminal. He is not, a fucking person said he was a war criminal. The ICC? It doesn't matter. Okay. So, let me tell you why it doesn't matter. The world says he's a war criminal. Does that save a single Palestinian life? Well, it- Just, please, God, you have to give me short answers. I'm leading you somewhere. But you don't stop at that. Exactly, motherfucker, this is exactly what I'm trying to get to. So, does declaring him a war criminal stop a single Palestinian life from being taken?

Please, God, yes or no. Tom, you're, okay, so this is- I'm gonna get you there. I'm not gonna stop talking, yes or no? No, not alone. Perfect, so now we've gotta go to the next thing, right? What I'm saying is, as you go to the next thing, it will terminate in, we're either going to economically starve Israel, or we're going to bomb the shit out of them, right? It becomes an act of force. That's what I'm trying to get you to understand. The next step is an act of force, and I'll leave it at this, because there's other topics, but the act of force would be, he is a war criminal, therefore, you arrest him.

That's the next step, right? And you get, who was the other guy? Ehud Barak or some shit? Ben Gavir, as well. He needs to be arrested. Whoever's gonna bomb him even more. So, that guy comes into power, and he kills him at twice the rate. Right, but it's the same thing you're saying with Japan, right, like why did we nuke Japan? We nuked Japan because. What's going to actually stop them? It's a process, Tom. You don't just get it in one step. Look at what we're doing in Iran.

Then what do you propose we do to stop them? How about that? There is only one way to stop them. You have to get them either physically inert through economic starvation or military force, or they have to internally go, we gotta let them in. That's it. But they're not going to, they're going to just continue to starve this group of people, Tom. They're not starving them currently, but that doesn't matter, even if they were. They were dragging rations behind a truck as children chased them. But you're back in Ott land.

That's not Ott, that's what happened. That is what, I'm confused on what you're saying about this Ott is, because what is the reality is that Palestinians are having war crimes committed against them by this ethno-religious state. Here's why that's Ott. How is that an Ott? Because it doesn't stop them from having power. So, now get to, how do we actually stop them from having power? You can't stop someone from having power unless you establish why do we need a reason to stop them. With Japan, the reason we nuked them is because they directly attacked us with Pearl Harbor.

We saw their collaboration with the Germans, and we were like, we have to take this front. Do you know why they attacked us? But that was the initial starting point that we recognized. They attacked us because we cut off their oil supply. Right. So, what does all that matter? So, we had to recognize there's a reason to attack. You don't just attack. The reason doesn't matter. Okay. So, here's why. And I think we just disagree on that. Well, we do disagree, but this is why I'm saying you're stuck over here in the, but it shouldn't be this way.

And I'm just saying it is that way. It is, the following statement is true. None of us want it to be true, but it is true. The powerful will do as they will. The weak will suffer as they must. That is true. Because Palestine is weak, they are suffering. The only way for them to stop suffering is to become strong. And so, now I'm just saying, follow that out. How do they get strong? They get a whole, the international community to go against Israel. But going against Israel becomes a tangible thing on the ground.

And that will be economic starvation, diplomatic isolation, and or military force. And then we get to, okay, that we can actually get the change that we want if we do that. What is the change that we want? We want them to be able to go back, right? So, it's like, it just becomes these really concrete things. Then we can all say, okay, cool. Is that what we wanna happen? And I think the most intelligent argument to this goes something like, what you're doing is so morally unjustifiable that you have to put Israel in a position where, if these guys turn on them and massacre them, it's fine.

Because it's so morally repugnant. And then you get the whole world to actually enact that. But you have to get to the point where the world actually enacts that. And if you can't get to the point where the world actually enacts that, you've got nothing. And this ends up being just like a waste of conversation. Okay. Next up, Starbucks plans to close hundreds of cafes a day. So, this is one of those times where I'm like, surely somebody in chat is saying something. Is it literally all just Tom's a retard?

No, it's actually mostly Ryan's a midwit, Ryan's a dumbass. But nobody's got anything constructive. No, not really. God, that makes me sad. Man. Because no one wants to have the conversations we have. Like, that's the thing. Okay, Prism Films US, Netanyahu's a war criminal. Cool, now what? That, I'm just trying to get everybody to now what. I will say, I tried to give you the now what a minute ago. We'll give it 60 more seconds. No, you didn't. No, no, because I started by saying, because you need the first part.

What I started saying was, Benjamin Netanyahu is a war criminal. So, arrest him. Cool, then new guy comes in and kills even more people. I didn't get to the next step, though. You said arrest him. No, but there was more to the, you stopped me at the recognition. Okay, cool, walk me through. I'll stay silent for 30 seconds, but I swear to God, if it gets esoteric, my comment is gonna be very aggressive. So, 30 seconds, go. Benjamin Netanyahu is a war criminal, committing a genocide against the Palestinians.

There's your setup. The action, America needs to cut ties with Israel, stop funding by giving them weapons, giving them missiles. We almost just made a deal with them for missiles. I think it got denied. We also need to shame them on the world stage, arrest Benjamin Netanyahu with the ICC warrant. I mean, like I'm laying out the full thing for you. I don't think we need to go to a point where it's bomb Israel, bomb Israel, bomb Israel, because that's not productive. But what we do need to do is show the world, hey, this is what they're doing.

Here's what we're doing to stop it, which is we're cutting all funding. We are going to arrest him. And if people continue, then we escalate. Because the reality is, we don't want to think 10 steps ahead. We need to start at the first thing, which is arresting Benjamin Netanyahu. He was on our turf, and we should have arrested him. Have you said all the things? Yeah. Okay, do you feel like you just put out new information that I have not already covered? No, but what I feel like I put out is, when I talked about this to him coming onto American soil, we didn't do the thing that I said is the actionable item, right?

Because we're not retarded, just to be clear. Well, I think it's just we disagree on that point. I'm giving you actionable items. Do you know how retarded it would be if we had arrested, who is it, Prejkin? The president of Iran? We're at war with them. But that's an entirely different, I mean, that's like us going- He killed, what, 50,000 of his own people? We kidnapped a world leader this year. Yeah, I agree. So, I mean, like- So you're in my camp. We clearly have no problem.

The strong will do as they will, and the weak will suffer as they must. And that is the way of doing this. I've agreed with you on that. Perfect. But what I'm saying is, when you take that perspective, you have to lay it out over the situation, and then say, looking at this- What do you mean when I take that perspective? That just is the world. I know it is, but what I'm trying to tell you is then you have to lay that over the situation, and then say, what is the next step we should do as a superpower to actually combat this type of thing?

And that's any situation. What are our interests? That's what I'm saying. Our interests are intel and oil. Right? Yeah. Then, therein lies the problem. But to me, those are my interests. So the US isn't going to be able to help you. Yeah. Okay, we'll stop there, because we're gonna death loop. Yeah, what are we gonna- I'm able to convince Ryan to, here's what must happen to move forward. We've got to get out of Otland. We've got to get into Iz. Now, just give me all the specific things you want to do that go up to and including the international community tears down the walls unless Palestinians in, and then it becomes a democracy.

And like we forced Japan to adopt a new constitution, we force Israel to adopt a new constitution. It will become actual things. And so, what are the actual things that people want to do? Stop fucking terminating on like this, but it should be this way. It's like, tell me what the fucking things are. Who do you kill? Who do you jail? What's the constitution? Who's gonna enforce the laws? Is there a UN security council that points guns at Israelis? Like, what's the fucking thing? And then we just go, cool.

Is there any will to actually enact that? If there's will, then that will actually come to pass. If there's no will, it won't come to pass and we'll be left in the same situation that we're in now, which is a complete and utter madness. Okay, cool. We're now for real moving on. I won't even drag us back. All right, well, this certainly got way more invigorating here at the end. Man, I enjoy that kind of shit so much. This is all gonna come back to haunt me though when I launch a video game.

I'm so aware of that. Oh God, yeah, uh-huh. Welcome to my own schizo personality. All right, I love you guys. I hope you have a wonderful weekend. Thank you for being here. You're the only reason that we do the show, so I am eternally grateful. And if I may pay it back in some way, I'm gonna be doing a free AI masterclass Thursday, October 8th at 1 p.m. Pacific. AI really is incredible. I hope you guys will join me. There has been so much happening since I did one of these previously, so the link is in the description.

Sign up immediately. It would go a long way. And then by the way, if you're starting a business, shout out to Taylor Brands, man. I love those guys. Not officially sponsoring us today, but we have such a long partnership with those guys, and I really love what they're doing. I wanna show you guys love by reminding you there is somebody that can take that work off your hands. Start more businesses, everybody. It's not for everybody, but man, if you've ever thought about doing it, there's never been a better time.

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