Iran Just Shot Down a US Fighter Jet — And the Rescue Mission Failed

Key Takeaway

This episode covers breaking developments in the Iran conflict, including a reported F-15 fighter jet being shot down, with pilots missing. The discussion highlights the strategic implications of Trump's withdrawal timeline and tariff policies, emphasizing the critical need to rebuild American manufacturing—particularly pharmaceuticals—as part of long-term competition with China. The key actionable insight: Stay focused on strategic priorities (like reshoring critical industries) rather than getting distracted by immediate crises, as true competitive advantage comes from controlling your supply chains and building domestic capabilities.

Episode Overview

Tom Bilyeu provides real-time analysis of breaking news about a US F-15 Strike Eagle fighter jet reportedly shot down over Iran, with crew members missing. The episode examines Trump's address to the nation announcing withdrawal from the region within 2-3 weeks regardless of whether the Strait of Hormuz is open, his new 100% tariffs on foreign pharmaceuticals, and the broader geopolitical reshuffling as America moves toward a more isolationist stance. Key themes include the fog of war, strategic communication as a weapon, the transition from one world order to another, and the critical importance of rebuilding American manufacturing capacity—particularly for pharmaceuticals and other strategic industries—in preparation for long-term competition with China.

Full Transcript

Transcript of Iran Just Shot Down a US Fighter Jet — And the Rescue Mission Failed from Impact Theory. Auto-generated from episode audio; may contain minor errors.

everybody, welcome to another episode of the Tom Bilyeu Show live. I thought we were going to have a much more fun beginning to this, but we actually have some breaking news that an F-15 Strike Eagle fighter jet was shot down over Iran and the pilot and crew are currently missing. currently missing. currently missing. So, we'll be covering that closely here as details unfold. Trump says, in other news, that we're going to be out of Iran in 2 or 3 weeks regardless of the status of the Strait of Hormuz.

If you guys watched his speech, that will come as no surprise. surprise. surprise. Speech maybe left a lot to be desired, at least from where I'm sitting. There are of course people that were very supportive. Um, hmm. We'll talk more about that. Trump also wants to tariff all the drugs that you're getting from overseas. We'll see what kind of impact that has on the cost of pharmaceuticals. of pharmaceuticals. of pharmaceuticals. China is now weaponizing global shipping to punish the US for booting them out of Panama.

That's going to have downstream effects. California's fraud problem is way worse than anyone expected. This is a nightmare that's going to have me crashing out. So, that'll be fun to talk about. about. about. Corporations are fleeing New York City, obviously, for states with better tax policies. I hope nobody's shocked by that. Google sends an updated warning to the crypto community that quantum computing will destroy you by 2029 if you don't upgrade. And Elizabeth Warren has questions for Mr. Beast after he purchases a financial company aimed at kids.

It's pretty wild. Shout out to Jimmy Donaldson, man. That that kid is absolutely incredible. I'm totally blown away. Uh, but I am very concerned about what's going to happen now about if if they don't recover those two pilots, depending on how the IRGC reacts. Like if this becomes decapitations, dragging bodies around streets, woah. That is going to take an already very anti-this-war public and make them just vehemently aggressively so. It will be the campaign ad to end all the campaign ads in the midterms. I I honestly think it'll have the opposite effect cuz I think if the IRGC hangs them, drags them through the town square, beats them, whips them, all those things, those things, those things, all that would do is fuel the war hawks and be like, "See, we told you Iran was a threat.

Let's go bomb the crap out of them. Let's declare war." But I think if Iran uses it as a strategic piece, kind of like the John McCain of it all of, "Hey, we have your guy. Maybe we've already actually sit down for peace a ceasefire and we can actually like figure something out." That would work to their advantage. If they're like, "Listen, you guys are the barbarians. I don't know what you've been telling your people. These are prisoners of war. They will be treated with respect, the kind of respect that you've not shown our people." That would be an amazing strategic move on their part.

We'll see how that plays out. Um, but I do think that if something horrible were to befall them and they do get paraded around that, that would be um, there will be people that say what you're saying, to be sure, but there's no I don't think there's any universe in which that becomes the thing that grabs the public. I think the thing that will grab the public is "The Strait of Hormuz was open before you arrived, [ __ ] You said that you had already defeated their nuclear sites and so us going back for more, destroying the nuclear site, it doesn't make any sense.

Uh, you've said, you know, we've been doing this from the air. We have complete air not superiority supremacy that we can do whatever we want. That was clearly a lie. So, lie after lie after lie, you're now putting our boys in harm's way. Look at these horrifying images. So, um, yeah, man. On this one, I am very curious. Th- This will tell me a lot about the strategy that Iran is going to deploy, whether they're speaking to their people and showing like their power and this is what we can do or if they want to take the road that the Chinese are taking, which is America's unhinged.

America's unhinged. America's unhinged. They're telling you a story about what we're like, but we're completely diplomatic. We're the calm people that you can rely on in difficult times. Uh, trying to get like the Canadians are turning more towards the Chinese. I think you're going to see that with Europe. So, the Iranians have a shot here to be like "This is all been fabrications, a bunch of lies from the Israel and US um, coalition has nothing to do with the reality on the ground here in Iran.

We're totally above board. The way that you guys have been treating us for years, acting like we're unhinged terrorists is absolutely crazy. Um, crazy. Um, crazy. Um, yeah, this is going to be a very interesting moment. Very interesting. I know we're really critical of the war and Trump and we talk, you know, politics, left side, right side, all those things, but this is a a sobering reality of what war actually is. These are human beings putting their life on the line and I commend all of our service members for even signing up to be in the thick of things, so.

No doubt. And yeah, first of all, shout out to anybody that is serving in the armed services here in the US, you have my utmost respect always and forever. Um, I don't care whether people agree or disagree with what any administration is doing. The people, as Drew was saying, they put their lives on the line to protect all of us. Uh, yeah. The The end The my gratitude knows no ends, that is for sure. So, um, shout out to all the families that are uh, dealing with the uncertainty of having somebody in harm's way.

Um, so hopefully they are recovered and everything ends up being fine, but this is is is a pretty tense situation as we wait and see what exactly unfolds. Now, for people that don't know the details, let's get into all the specifics here. So, Iran is claiming that the IRGC shot down an American jet. They initially claimed that the aircraft was an F-35, which is our super stealthy uh, fighter jet, which was We had one of them damaged earlier. It was a big win claimed on behalf of Iran that they were able to hit it.

Uh, but it was able to land safely. Um, but what they've hit this time, uh, based on the images from the crash site, clearly showed debris belonging to an F-15 Strike Eagle, which if you're looking at your screen, uh, we've pulled up an image of. Iran Iranian state media has published pictures and videos purportedly showing parts of the down plane and one of the ejection seats. All of that is consistent with this having been an F-15E fighter jet. Um, Axios has confirmed that Iran has indeed shot down the F-15.

Um, and that there's a search and rescue effort that's underway. Now, the rescue operation is being labeled as active but very unresolved. There are claims that the US uh, that their attempt to rescue the crew is actually already failed. That American forces were um, conducting the search for hours using Black Hawk helicopters, a C-130 aircraft, uh, that one of the helicopters involved in the rescue effort was reportedly attacked by air defense air defense air defense uh, near the border of the scene and they ended up fleeing.

So, a lot of this is calling into question um, just how much supremacy we have. There's been a debate for a long time where the IRGC was claiming bro, like you have hardly begun to touch our reserves. We have so much hidden in all these massive tunnels. Uh, but the message coming out from the US being like, "No, no, no, we've severely degraded it. We've blown a ton of the tunnels closed. Um, so yes, there's things inside of the tunnels that we can't get to, but they're not able to pull the stuff in and out as easily as they once were.

We've just been degrading, degrading, degrading." Um, so this certainly calls that into question. Now, there's unverified footage that suggests that the combat um, search and rescue operation may be supported by these F-35 jets. These are the ones that are super stealthy and an MQ-9 Reaper drone or series of drones. The C-130, as we were saying, was also reportedly flying very low over Iran deploying flares. Um, Tasnim is claiming that based on unnamed sources that Iranian security forces have taken a US pilot into custody, that at least one of There's two that were in the jet.

So, one of them, again, unconfirmed at this point, fog of war in the extreme. We will have to see uh, what this ends up being in reality. Uh, but those there are unconfirmed reports that at least one of them is already been taken into custody. Iranian television is reportedly broadcasting a message offering a reward for anyone who captures uh, the other pilot alive. Um, Iran's messaging at this point is contradictory, but you can expect that. I'm sure they're not entirely sure exactly what's going on. Uh, but the IRGC has specifically identified the down aircraft as an F-35, which isn't true again.

We already talked about that. The physical wreckage is showing that this was an F-15E. Um, it also remains possible that images of the wreckage have been manipulated, so um, a lot of question marks, very few answers at this point. There are two separate claimed locations for where this happened, the Strait of Hormuz um, and central Iran. So, it's unclear whether these refer to the same aircraft or they're separate incidences. Unclear. Unclear right now. As of now, the Pentagon has not made any official statement regarding the IRGC's claim and CENTCOM uh, has not commented on the photos or debris at the time that we're reporting on this.

Given the ongoing operations uh, to rescue the pilots, official confirmation or denial is probably largely being withheld just to um, try to make sure that we get on the other side of this so we don't give away any information that we don't need to. So, So, So, at this point, you can just assume this is a credible claim that a US fighter has been shot down over Iranian territory. It's it's the first one um, since the war began cuz the other one that was hit managed to get outside and land safely.

land safely. land safely. Um so, we'll see how all of this plays out, but as we said at the top, uh obviously we are hoping that this goes well for the American pilots, that they are rescued safely uh and returned back to base, but we're going to have to face a very uncomfortable truth that we do not have the level of total supremacy over the air that we're being told that we do, um and that's going to change the way that we um move forward, that's for sure.

We'll keep definitely keep monitoring the situation, see what progresses, but again, thoughts and prayers are for those uh down pilots, and we hope we get them safe return back home. No doubt. Ryan, if you would, keep an eye on chat for anybody that surfaces anything um as we go, and yeah, if anything new happens while we are live, we will certainly get to that. Yeah. Let's go to a broader update of the war itself. Trump did a announcement yesterday I guess. Wasn't yesterday, right? It was the day before.

Oh, day before, yeah, so um Wednesday night. So, it's it's one of those things where he gave us an update, but I think all those who were online kind of knew everything he was saying. Yeah, if you're chronically online, the address was not very interesting, but Trump did address the nation on Wednesday night and basically said, uh we're out in a couple weeks, whether the strait is open or not. So, if you need oil, go and get it yourself. I'm always trapped when Trump talks of being torn between, well, it's good TV, uh and god damn, this is why I do not like living in a populist moment.

Man, do I miss the days of presidents that seem presidential. Uh Trump said American forces will hit Iran extremely hard over the next two or three weeks, and lord help us all if uh there are people in captive captivity, and Trump does not believe that negotiations are going well, he's going to go ham. So, everybody brace yourselves for that. Um Trump said that, you know, that we just need a couple more weeks to wrap up our our objectives. Um he reminded everybody that regime change is not the name of the game, and that opening the strait is no longer the name of the game.

Let us all remain completely sober. I've said this a gazillion times, but I remind myself that I was completely surprised that he went back in cuz I was not expecting that. I was told that we had destroyed the nuclear capabilities, and all of a sudden we were building up again. I I tried to stay completely sober about that. that. that. The website's still up, too. We have completely obliterated their nuclear facilities. facilities. facilities. Yeah, June 2025. So, uh we are being gaslit right now about that.

He said very clearly uh in the beginning that that was like part of the negotiating, the reason we're going to hit them so hard was we needed to open the strait. Uh I said a while ago, at some point we should probably pull this clip, I think he'll leave even if it's in chaos, and he'll just be like, peace out. Uh and so, that's where we're at. It looks like he will indeed leave, peace out, even if the strait is in total chaos. Um the stated objectives are destroy their military, ensure that they're not going to be able to build back their uh long-range weapons, their nuclear weapons, and this is a very close paraphrase, if not an exact quote, blow them back to the Stone Age where they belong uh if they don't negotiate.

Okay, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that he means the IRGC and not the Iranian people, but god damn. Uh if we actually do start destroying all of their civilian infrastructure, which they've already started blowing up bridges saying that they were being used, and they probably were being used, but for military purposes, but nonetheless, nonetheless, nonetheless, when you start blowing up the civilian infrastructure, you really are going to set the country back. This goes back to my initial thing, how many people in Iran support the IRGC?

If it's a lot, then yes, if you're going to see through your mission of weakening the regime, even if you don't care if there's full regime change, then you're going to end up hitting a lot of the civilian infrastructure. But man, if we walk out having blown up their civilian infrastructure and their oil, yo, I I will say this, [clears throat] [clears throat] [clears throat] there will be second and third-order consequences that will be extraordinary. They could be they will almost certainly include humanitarian disaster inside of Iran.

It will also almost certainly um further cement America's legacy as a global problem. Uh so, that's where you start getting into the Dave Smith comment that uh what did he say? Americans are bigger terrorist? Did he say we're the biggest terrorist in the world? He said something about Americans being terrorists. We'll have to look at it. it. it. Mhm. Mhm. Mhm. I was starting down the path of researching Dave, he had to reschedule, but hopefully we will get him on the show soon. I will spend a lot of time with that notion, but ooh, buddy, um there going to be a lot more voices saying that if we just completely leave it in smoking ruins, and then also leave them with the ability to choke off 20% of the world's supply.

So, um um um there will be second and third-order consequences. All right. The I I want to talk about those consequences cuz it was interesting. George Galloway sat down with Sneako when he brought that up cuz he was saying in the Iraq war that we were there for 20 years. say George Galloway? George Galloway. Who's George Galloway? The British dude. Don't know. Who wears the the the But yeah, it was a good uh But yeah, it was a good uh interview. Um long story short, from the 20-year war that we just got out of, it sent a whole bunch of migrants, Pakistanis, Afghans, away from their homes.

Where did those people go? They ended up going to Europe, causing the crisis that we're now struggling with now. So, half of Lebanon is being exiled right now in the chase of Hezbollah. Um if Iran is really in shambles, people are going to leave Iran trying to look for a better life. Where are those people going to go? And then there's going to be a new administration that comes in cuz I don't think Trump is going to last after this if it goes really south, then the next 4 years, it's, oh my gosh, there's bleeding people over there, we should take them in.

And then now we have this immigration crisis happening all over again. So, I think it's easy to we think about the beginning war, yeah, we're just going in there, stop their nuclear program, and then brick and dominoes fall, and then now we have 750,000 people who have to leave the Middle East and go somewhere, and that's going to destabilize some country, some community around the world wherever they end up. Yeah, that's a very interesting thing, and we can certainly get into the um um um why the immigration crisis is reaching the levels that it is, especially in Europe.

Um I think that that has to do with both the destabilization that sends people looking for something else, but also uh the suicidal empathy policies that we see just absolutely flying around the world, but you're starting to see a ton of pushback. So, I think that things will play out very differently on an immigration front this time. Um so, we'll see. It will come down to the level of the humanitarian disaster um if there is one um that is left in its wake. But man, that you're just not going to get out from a there will be a knock-on effect.

There's no way to escape that. So, that could get terrible very, very fast. All right, the oil markets did not love the message that Trump gave, uh and at the time of this recording anyway, the price of oil is hovering around $110 a barrel, and that's for both Brent and WTI. Now, Trump was blunt, the US imports almost no oil through Hormuz and plans to keep it that way. So, for every nation watching gas prices spiral while Iran maintains a stranglehold on 1/5 of the world's oil supply, Trump offered up three options.

Option number one, if you need oil, buy it from the US. America is energy independent and ready to sell to all of you beautiful people out there. Two, Two, Two, if you want your oil lane back, go take it. The implication by force. Trump told US allies they should quote, build up some delayed courage and go to the strait themselves, go take it, protect it, use it for yourself. He said Iran has been essentially decimated. Little harder to see that in the wake of the jet getting shot down.

Uh the hard part is done, so it should be easy. Third option, if you don't like options one and two, just wait. Trump's position is that the strait will open up naturally uh eventually. And he's probably right about that. Uh oil prices do tend to come down. So, we've had conflicts in the region before, including the revolution in 1979, and that was very anti-America, and the strait still opened again and oil prices came back down, that's what they do. But the part that I think people are going to struggle with is yes, America may be energy independent, but the price of oil is set internationally.

So, you have a product, whether it's made by us and typically stays here, the price will go up because other countries will bid and say, yo, I'll buy that oil at this elevated price. So, then the companies are going to be like, well, that's the price, bro. So, even if you want it here at the gas pump, you're not going to get any shortages, but the prices are going to go up. So, uh let's not be delusional about that. They'll try to gaslight, they'll try to spin, they'll try to be like, but wait, we don't need any of that oil.

Um but if the price is going up, it's certainly going to feel like we are somehow, someway involved in all of this. So, don't lose sight of that. Now, nonetheless, Trump has set the stage with that talk for the US exit from the region. region. region. The only thing that lingers in my mind is that Pete Hegseth has fired three generals recently, and that seems like a weird move if you plan to be out of the region in a couple of weeks and everything is going perfectly.

Now, in full disclosure, I have no idea why the generals were actually forced out, but one possible solution is that Trump wants to do the same kind of limited ground incursion, not the same kind, but he wants to do some kind of limited ground incursion to get the nuclear material as one possible option. Kirk Island would be another possible option. And the idea that he's going to send in a ground force to dig up the nuclear material, build a quick runway, and then fly that stuff out of there is a rumor that just keeps popping up.

Now, I have my tin foil hat firmly in place right now. Um, but Trump has addressed this that specific thing in his speech saying that, "Nope, we're just watching it via satellites. All good." So, this could be total BS, but man, it is a rumor that just will not go away, and given how many um troops we've started moving towards the region and the fact that they're firing generals right now at a time where supposedly everything is going perfectly and we're about to withdraw, there's just something weird there.

Something isn't quite adding up. It's possible it's just Trump keeping his options open. It's possible that these have been long-term issues that they've wanted to deal with, and since things are going so well, we might as well do it right now. I don't know. Um, but I am certainly going to be watching that closely, and I of course do not believe anything that I'm being told. Uh, a lot of what we're being told right now, and please never lose sight of this, is basically the information is a weapon of its own.

So, uh, we should just assume that much of what we're being told strategic being told we're being told strategic lies to confuse the enemy. Um, so how all of this stuff plays out is right now anybody's guess, but there are certainly a lot of moving pieces. We shall see. And in continuing news, it seems that the Iran um um um Iran has done two things. I think they're being very strategic, so it's interesting. Um, they have both offered the EU the EU the EU um an agreement for a transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

This has been rumored. Nothing has officially been signed or anything like that. But yesterday the EU and 41 other nations EU with a couple of other nations, Japan included, did get together in conference. US was not in attendance, and they were talking about ways to open the strait. So, Get ready for more of that. When the guy says like, "If you want to go get it." You're not going to invite him to the talks. It's like, "Okay, well, [ __ ] Yes, like we these countries cannot afford to not have this energy.

Like that's not an option." option." option." Them um Them um Them um the the the if like a really dire scenario happened, these guys would militarily have to go in and reopen it. Like the option of, "Well, I guess we just go without." is not an option. Military, yes. No energy, no. Now, I think they would be extremely reticent to do so. I think that they would do all kinds of negotiations and concessions first. Um, but man, this this is what it looks like when the world like reorganizes.

reorganizes. reorganizes. Your one world order is truly ending. A new world order is coming into place, and I think when we all think about like, "Oh, one world order ends, the next begins." You don't really think about the reason that it falls apart is for these moments of like hyper conflict where things clash, people have interests, they've got to move, they start finding new allies. It's not like everybody just goes, "Okay, cool. Turn to chapter four, and this is why you're going to go connect with all these different people." It's a thing happens.

Somebody does something. Other people react. Butterfly effect, and all of a sudden you've got Canada cozying up to China. And so, that's ultimately how all of this is going to play out is it's going to be conflict based. It's going to be everybody protecting their own interests, and suddenly the illusion of like, "Well, we're all holding hands. We're all in this together." it just disappears because people have to have energy to stay in power. Um, our modern world is predicated on a small handful of things, and oil is one of the biggest.

I think we do have to kind of highlight the accountability piece of it all though, because while the world order was going to change, I remember Peter Zeihan. If you guys haven't um watched that interview, he really broke that down. So, down. So, down. So, this was going to happen, but we cannot act like Trump didn't exacerbate it. He started a economic trade war with the entire world. And then on the other side was like, "Hey guys, I need help like opening the strait up." Yep.

So, if maybe he would have led with honey, he would have caught a couple more bees in this scenario. Um, so with the EU now saying, "Okay, we're going to go behind him and do our own thing." Does that have blowback for America? Can we be isolationist? I know we got the whole Western Hemisphere. Will we just be like China now, and we'll just rerun everything from here, and we don't cross boundaries. We only do humanitarian aid to certain places, and we kind of shrink back into our domain?

Yes, we are big enough that we can be isolationist, but it would be a terrible move, and we will suffer grave consequences for doing it. Uh, you can't overnight become isolationist and think everything is going to be fine, but in terms of the countries on the planet that would be able to do very well with a more isolationist policy, we are one of them. So, we can be food independent. We can be energy independent. We can work towards that. Um, again, not going to happen overnight, and there are going to be rough days ahead if we just snap our fingers and expect to act in that way.

But we also have things that a lot of countries want, and people will do whatever's in their best interest. So, there's no doubt that doubt that doubt that uh, geographically America's in a good spot. Resource-wise America's in a good spot, but there are key vulnerabilities that we have. Right now, uh, rare earth um processing is a big one. So, we can build towards that, but you're not going to be able to do it by Tuesday. So, you've got the chip manufacturing that we need. We've got the energy needs uh to keep up with China in terms of the AI race that we're going to have to address.

Um, you right now your pharmaceuticals come a lot from um China. There's a ton of things that we still rely on China for. So, you would have to find your way to shoring all of those up. But yes, from an isolationist perspective, if it's done well over time and you can buy yourself 5 or 10 years, uh, you'd be in a good place. But um man, that won't be without consequences. And I don't think so. Globalism was these huge tradeoffs, but they were tradeoffs, meaning you were getting something for it.

You weren't just giving things up. But you hollowed out the middle class to do globalization because because because uh basically to speed run this, there is a certain type of person that's going to only be able to hold down a certain type of job. And when you have middle class, working class jobs, factories where somebody isn't sitting at a desk trying to do intellectual work, but instead they are working with their hands, they are doing a trade, like they thrive at that. They're able to do well.

They're able to make a living. But when you optimize for every nation goes and does what they do best, everybody gets to specialize, then that inevitably goes to some countries, but not others. And so, everybody basically outsourced their manufacturing or huge swaths of it to China, and that meant that we just couldn't make things here ourselves, which is already a problem from a supply chain perspective, but it also meant that you had a huge base of workers that now couldn't find jobs full stop. And then third, you're in a position where you weaken the the negotiating power uh of everybody because you can just go, "Oh, cool.

You don't want to do that? No worries. We've got trade arrangements with so many countries. We've got these people for labor, these people for um you know, think about how much white collar work was outsourced to the Philippines as one example or to India." Uh, and so, that just weakened everybody's negotiating abilities. And so, wages stagnate, but you're in an inflationary environment, and we can fractal they are very, very hard. And so, now you're in this position where as you reindustrialize, you're making the tradeoff in the opposite direction.

So, things aren't going to be as cheap, but you're going to control your supply chains. You're going to be able to put some power back in the hands of workers. Now, AI and robotics complicate some of this, but hopefully you can understand from a macro perspective that when you make the opposite trade, you still get something back, but you're giving something up. So, regardless of which direction we go, there it's not a utopia. It's, "Do you want everything to be cheap, but you're getting this increasingly K-shaped economy?" Or, "Do you want to force the K-shape back towards the middle, but things are going to be harder, things are going to be more expensive?" But you can really start building back your middle class.

middle class. middle class. So, I think everybody knows my position. Better to build back the middle class. And right now, because you're in a uh Thucydides trap cold war with China, you've got to get your manufacturing base back up. Just non-negotiable. Well, one way that Trump is trying to do it is he's back on his tariff wave. He was like, "You know what? Epstein got a little hot. Let's start this war. War got a little hot. Let's go back to the classic back to the Let's go back to the classic hits.

Let's go back to tariffs." So dark. Uh, so, 100% tariffs on foreign-made pharmaceuticals in an effort to bring the pharmaceutical industry back to the US. Now, this is on the eve of a he had Trump RX that he launched. So, I I give respect to Trump cuz he's at least shooting his shot. He's trying to do different things. Um, what's your take on this 100% tariff on pharmaceuticals? pharmaceuticals? pharmaceuticals? Yeah, so Trump just signed an executive order imposing a 100% tariff on patented pharmaceuticals manufactured outside of the United States.

He almost certainly had to do something like this. We've got to get pharmaceuticals back in the US. But right now, 53% of all patented drugs distributed in the US are actually made overseas, and only 15% of the active pharmaceutical ingredients for those drugs are produced domestically. Now, America invented most of these drugs, but under the rubric of globalism, globalism, globalism, we stopped making them. The tariffs are scheduled to kick in in 120 days for large companies and 180 days for smaller ones. There are off-ramps. Companies that commit to building US manufacturing facilities get a reduced 20% rate, but that climbs back to 100% 4 years.

If you sign a most favored nation pricing deal with HHS and break ground on a US plant, you pay zero. Now, that tells you exactly what he's trying to do. He is trying to incentivize incentivize incentivize companies to make this stuff in the United States. That's exactly what needs to happen. I get people hate that it's coming from Trump. I get that people hate that he's using tariffs to do it. I understand. Heard. understand. Heard. understand. Heard. But this has to happen. You've got to bring this stuff back.

You For anybody that is enraged right now, I'm telling you you're not taking China seriously enough. This is part of why I don't love the distraction of going into Iran. I've said this before. I will say it many times again. Iran is a play to be on Mount Rushmore. If he could, I think it's probably too late to do it in a way that will be remembered fondly. If he was able to have done this in a way where you open the Strait of Hormuz, you get regime change, the regime is pro, it doesn't have to be pro um the US, it just needs to be pro markets.

It needs to be economically logical and make things good for their people and really uh re-enter the global economy. If he had been able to get that, even if it was Venezuela style where it's like, "Yep, it's more or less the same people, just way less dogmatic." If we'd been able to get that, then I think the Iran thing could have played out well. But instead, I think it's become a distraction from what we really need to be focused on, which is China. Now, there's very much an aggressive China play in what's going on in Iran.

So, from that perspective, I get it, but man, man, man, everybody in the sort of public consciousness is just all caught up in like Iran is the thing in front of us. And I know if I start headlining things around China, nobody's going to pay attention. And so, that reality of the way that human mind works is very distressing, and I wanted desperately to take the bait that Drew fed me with the Epstein connection cuz there was something so dark about what that says about human nature.

Uh but I stayed on task, boys and girls, and that's the very thing that all of us have to do is remember what's really going on here. Your real problem is not with Iran. Your real problem is with China. China has way more influence in the world. China controls There are probably two dozen straits of Hormuz that like things that China can choke us out on. Pharmaceuticals is one of them. So, you've got to bring these back. Unless you want to lose access to your Ozempic, you're going to need to start making this stuff here.

And when you get to the nitty-gritty of things like diabetes drugs and things like that, man, you cannot have these controlled by an adversary. So, we've got to be way, way more careful. Now, getting back to the very specifics of these tariffs, generic drugs are exempt for now. The administration is saying that it will reassess that specifically in a year. Now, the question that I expect all of you guys to be asking is, "What on earth is going to happen to the cost of my drugs?" Well, Yale's Budget Lab projected that even a 25% tariff would cost the average American household roughly $600 a year in higher drug costs.

costs. costs. And these tariffs are four times that rate. So, it wouldn't be good for any drug that doesn't sign the most favored nation's deal and break ground on a US facility. And that is what Trump is pushing people to do, and that quite frankly is what they should do. We've got to get this stuff back on American soil. And this is a trade-off. So, unless you guys are like, "No, I love it the most that we have a K-shaped economy. I love that. Let's go.

More globalism." globalism." globalism." If that's your argument, I'm happy to have that discussion. But the reality is, if you want to start bringing this stuff back, get a middle class here, you've got to give up on some of the benefits of globalism and start bringing it back. Now, one pharma CEO warned that taxes on cutting-edge medicines are going to increase costs and could jeopardize billions in US investments. The White House, however, said for its part, prices are going to go down. And a third opinion coming from a senior official is that the move just isn't going to impact affordability at all.

Now, one of these three is wrong. So, I'm sorry, two of the three are actually wrong. Only one of the three is going to be right. So, which of them we're going to see how this plays out. Now, more than a dozen major drug makers, including Pfizer, Eli Lilly, and Novo Nordisk Nordisk have already inked pricing deals to avoid the tariffs. So, yay. Expect a wave of announcements like that from the holdouts in the coming weeks. Now, weeks. Now, weeks. Now, given how much of the world's pharmaceuticals come from China, you can't ignore this.

You just cannot rely on our relationship with China right now remaining stable in the coming years. And you don't want them to be able to choke you out Hormuz style with pharmaceuticals or rare earth metals, magnets, etc. magnets, etc. magnets, etc. So, we've got to make sure that we are preparing for an escalating problem with China. Cuz if we leave ourselves in a situation where they can cut us off from things that we are absolutely reliant upon, we are going to be in a way worse position than we are with the things that Iran can cause disruption on, obviously barring a nuclear weapon, which would be even worse than pharmaceuticals.

All right, there's a couple things there. Um I Fun fact about me, my first job was at Bristol Myers Squibb out of college. Was at Bristol Myers Squibb back in my like biomedical engineering days. And I always found it interesting that we would research R&D a drug locally in America, then we would go to Singapore and the Philippines, but we had like six other like like facilities across the world to do the first round of clinical trials, trials, second round three like it will go back and forth on that supply chain.

Then once it actually gets good, then we'll bring it back to the US for the final clinical trial and then bring it back to Yeah. So, it's like we're doing most of the things here. We have the infrastructure here. Is this a econ supply demand thing where Trump is just saying, "Hey, if you do the same process, just cut out the middle mans and bring it here, it will be cheaper for you." And would the Well, he's saying it's only going to be cheaper because I'm going to raise prices on you first.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It is clearly cheaper to send it overseas where there's going to be looser regulations, there's going to be um lower quality of life or lower cost of life for sure. And so, you'll be able to get employees that are ecstatic to be paid what you're paying. Yeah. But for them, it's like, "Whoa, these are incredible wages." And then the government starts optimizing around that, and so you can think of it as like industrial tourism. So, it's like, "We want to be the place that you come to do this kind of manufacturing." This is exactly how China pulled 400 million people out of poverty was they were like, "Well, we're a dictatorship." I'm less and less comfortable calling China currently a communist nation.

I know they call themselves that. Uh but it's more just a dictatorship. So, I can force everybody to do what I want. And so, I'm going to force you guys all to get good at manufacturing, and that's going to be our thing. And if I've got to put up nets around Foxconn because so many of you are committing suicide, yeah, whatever. That's what we're going to do. Um and we're not going to change the regulations, so get back to [ __ ] work. work. work. And that ended up being really beneficial for everybody that has an iPhone.

Like, yo. Is this a proper incentive though? Let me rephrase. me rephrase. me rephrase. Oh god, are we in aut now? Yes. Cuz it Give me the is on this though. With With him putting tariffs up, is this the incentive that pharmaceutical companies will say, "Hey, you increase this, let me just bring it back home to America." Yeah, so that the is of it all, that's what he's doing. I'm going to make it expensive now for you to go away. I'm removing your ability to make that trade-off so that I can Yes, it's probably going to get more expensive here at home, but you're going to make more money, you're going to have more power, the average person's going to put more money in their pockets.

So, from an affordability standpoint, not Not that drugs won't go up, but on mass, 5 years from now, from an affordability standpoint, you're going to be in a better spot. better spot. better spot. And that is You have to do that. Okay? If you want to mentally map Tom and understand why Tom is saying you must do this, you do not have a choice, there are two reasons. You can get choked out by China, or you will get choked out by the working class. But Dude, it will be a problem of biblical proportions if you don't flatten your K-shaped economy.

K-shaped economy. K-shaped economy. And so, I'm just like, anything that makes us stronger against China and anything that makes us able to actually take care of our citizens like we should be. And we're going to get to fraud in a minute. Uh I'm for. Like, you're going to have to do hard things. We're going to have to do hard things. And I worry that people map this as, "But bro, like this isn't better. It's not cheap." It's like, "Yeah, [ __ ] I get it. But like, god damn, are you just going to cheap your [ __ ] way into uh America tearing itself apart, killing itself, or us getting choked out by China, China becoming the dominant global power, and us getting slapped around like a [ __ ] like we slap around other countries?

Like, [ __ ] that. Like, you can be as mad as you want about America. I'm never going to root for my own decline. Get the [ __ ] out of my country. Like, you must be joking. So, uh that to me is patently I'm trying to understand. So, help me for the for the short bus people, right? In order to flatten the K-shape economy, and a refresher on that, that's the haves at the top, the have-nots at the bottom. Correct. bottom. Correct. bottom. Correct. And the haves, I'm saying asset owners, have-nots, non-asset owners.

Thank you. Right now, to be on the top of the K, you have to own a substantial amount of assets. assets. assets. To be on the bottom of the K, you just have to be everybody else. So, 10% own 93% of the assets. Now, we can we can and should do more things like the um Trump savings account, I forget the the [ __ ] they're calling them. For the kids. Um that is dope. And so, now it's just like being born is now putting you on the asset ladder.

Fantastic. I love that. that. that. Um but, you you still have everybody else that was born more than a year ago. And so, they've all got to deal with the fact that they're not on the property or they're not on the asset ladder. And so, now we've got to find a way to shrink that gap. So, that's going to be workers have to have more power to negotiate their salaries. That means that jobs can't just bleed to everywhere else. The first sign that you're not going to be able to get what you want here.

And so, And so, And so, that is a big part of this. Okay, cuz cuz you said earlier, you said things will go up, but that's going to help your afforda- you can't cheap your way out. That's going to help affordability. So, you were trying to explain it. So, uh think of affordability as the difference between how much you make and what things cost. Okay. Okay. Okay. just what things cost. Mhm. So, uh I think everybody understands that my mental model will only work if you stop deficit spending.

Just be very clear about that. That's running in the background. It's just not the part of this I'm talking about right now. So, even with Trump accounts, it that cuz that's deficit spending technically. Yes. So, Yes. So, Yes. So, Okay. With with the Trump accounts, Okay, if you really want to get nasty, um let's say Drew, God, this is so hideous. I really hate everything I'm about to say. Okay. Um right now, 10% of the country bleeds 90% of the country dry. Over time, what we could do is say, um we're going to reduce that number and 20%, then 30%, then 40%, or going to bleed the 70, 60, you know, whatever percent of the country dry.

But, as long as you're deficit spending, you're stealing from somebody to give to somebody else. somebody else. somebody else. From where I'm sitting, that is immoral, and you should stop doing it. Copy. But, given that we are currently immoral and doing that, the Trump accounts are better because now, at least, being born puts you on the right path. And there are going to be some kids, most won't, but there'll be some kids that will actually pay attention. And if we do a good job, we will market to them.

to them. to them. Hey, you were given a thousand dollars when you're born, you're now 14, and that thousand dollars is now worth three thousand dollars. And it's like, whoa, hold on a second. That's cool. Why is that so? And you start teaching them to like actually put a class in school about how this works and yada yada. And so, yes, then you want to inflate the world, and you want to steal from all the dumb Americans that refused to buy assets because they were not smart enough to be born uh in 2026, and you punish all the dumb people that around the world that weren't smart enough to get out from under the dollar, and you steal from all of them to give to American children.

That's the ugly version of what you're doing. It's true, it's accurate. It just puts a moral spin on it. Um Hey, I feel like the kids can steal a little bit cuz, you know, the boomers are taking everybody else's money with social security. social security. social security. the really good news. The kids wouldn't be stealing. They would just be we would be stealing on their behalf and giving to them. Which is better. That's so much better. Right. Got to invest in the kids. Like, if this this is Shara, I think it's Brad Gerstner who um was a big proponent of pushing this forward.

Michael Dell, who's given six billion dollars. Dude, I love these guys for this. They're saying, okay, like we're just going to keep running this stupid [ __ ] game where we're inflating everybody to high hell, we're deficit spending, we're funding fraud. We are actively funding fraud. Cool, you guys are going to do that, great. The only way for me to help the kids, building them a library like the Carnegies did, does not make any [ __ ] sense, but doing this, giving them uh an account, so now, the more you guys go plunder the world, at least they're going to benefit from it.

Yeah. But, it is so dark that it just makes me very sad. But, at least, hey, we're doing something. Yeah. Um so, now let's go to the ought of it, and then last thing we can wrap this up cuz I want to go to China next. Go to the what of it? The ought ought ought of it. Um it. Um it. Um What is the proper way to incentivize um globalism in a to disincentivize globalism in a way that can actually bring manufacturing home, build up middle-class wages?

What should be the policies if you may magic wand, Trump made you economic czar for a day, and you can enact three executive orders. What would be the kind of the, you know, Well, if I'm economic czar, uh unfortunately, the thing that I'm going to do is not necessarily about um bringing manufacturing back home because that wouldn't be as effective as um I would stop deficit spending. That would be the first. But, that's that takes a long time, right? Yeah, I know, but you made me like if I'm the guy, uh okay, so, the you need carrot and stick.

And so, uh tariffs are so far the only stick that we have seen that is effective. And the reason that that stick is effective is I trust me, I'm hyper aware that people that don't understand tariffs think that the US consumer pays 100% of that. They absolutely do not. And that is a cost that will be shared in some varying degree, and it will be different from item to item, but that is a tax that is shared by the exporter, the importer, and the end purchaser.

And so, part of the reason that they can be so effective is that it's a tax that's spread across multiple parties. multiple parties. multiple parties. So, uh you need that. The question becomes, what's going to be the carrot? And so, right now, we're sort of heavy stick, very light carrot. Um the carrot is basically you won't be choked out by China. Now, one part of all of this that really gets lost in the sauce, and this I fear falls into um fantasy land bucket, but I'm going to say it because this is on my mind a lot right now.

Um Um Um Americans, Americans, Americans, you've got to find a way to love your country. country. country. And right now, if we could get people to really love America, to say, here are the values that we all share, and we're going to do our part to actually get things moving in the right direction, then you could get companies that, because they love America and because they want to see Americans do well, that they're going to manufacture in America, in America, in America, uh that people are going to buy because it's made in America, and just out of sheer love for this country.

And we've seen this many, many, many times in our past. I get it. I know what the arguments are going to be. There's going to be a huge contingent of people that believe America's completely lost its soul. Uh there's a contingent of America that believes that America just is, was, and always will be founded on um an evil premise, and therefore, it just needs to be stripped down bare, um and plundered. and plundered. and plundered. Uh so, I get it. I'm aware of the arguments. I just think they're universally terrible, and they will lead to horrific outcomes for the very people uh that want to see America torn down and plundered.

So, um I'll get off the soapbox immediately cuz this is one that's going to take me time to convince people of, but that really is a big part of this. Um so, I would love to see companies do that. You know, and that's me talking to myself as much as anybody else. Listen, we use uh people overseas for some of our roles. And it just is what it is. This all started during COVID when it was like, well, maybe we're not ever going to work out of an office again, so what does it really matter?

And before I started going down this path, um so, yeah, I mean, I will um stare nakedly at my own advice. But, that is part of this picture, to be sure. Man, and while all of this is brewing, remember the Panama Canal? That was the first fight that Trump picked, and I feel like we thought we came out victorious on top. Now, there's a bit of legal disputes happening right now, where a Hong Kong-flagged vessel for Panama was just stopped and detained. There's been some rosy rosy language around it.

Break down this Panama situation cuz there is another trade war brewing. Yeah, so Trump has just or sorry, China has just weaponized global shipping to punish the US, partly because of what Trump was doing back in the Panama Canal. Trump wanted China out. And he got it. And now China is making the whole world pay for it. For nearly 30 years, Hong Kong-based conglomerate CK Hutchison, with deep ties to Beijing, I might add, controlled the two ports that flank both ends of the Panama Canal. You've got Balboa on the Pacific side, you've got Cristobal on the Atlantic.

And together, they handle about 40% of all the Panama Canal traffic. And the position gave China a chokehold on the Western Hemisphere's most critical shipping lane. Now, I hope that this idea of getting control of shipping lanes is starting to sound very familiar. All of this stuff works in the globalized world, which has trade-offs. And it doesn't work as we begin to fragment once again, start getting into spheres of influence, start thinking of China first, America first, Japan first, England first, yada yada yada. So, uh brace yourselves for more of this.

When Trump came into office, he made kicking China out of those ports priority, and it was a good idea. By January of 2026, Panama's Supreme Court obliged, invalidating CK Hutchison's entire agreement with the Panamanian government. Panama handled handed interim control over to Maersk and MSC, which are US-aligned firms, massive massive on the global shipping um industry. And since March 8th, Chinese port authorities have detained nearly 70 Panama-flagged vessels. Now, they're not doing it because they actually think they're violations, they're doing it because Panama is the world's largest ship registry.

A lot of foreign countries use the Panama flag. Uh so, even though China is going after the US, quite frankly, but they're going via Panama to try and punish them. 15% of the global tonnage carries a Panamanian flag. And so, detaining Panama-flagged ships is how you strangle global trade if you're trying to be more elegant than Iran. So, Iran just blows [ __ ] up. It's like, "Nope, sorry, you're not coming through here. We're blowing up your boats." And look, look at the pretty boats burning out in the water.

China, they do it all with class. They do it without needing to fire a shot. They pull you aside. "May I see your papers, sir?" papers, sir?" papers, sir?" They hold you for days, weeks, or months, find a validation violation, maybe, maybe not. Uh they let you go eventually, but they cause just enough bureaucratic nightmare that everything gets more costly and time-consuming. The US Federal Maritime Commission called it out directly. They said, "These detentions are being carried out under informal directives and are far exceeding historical norms." So, sure.

So, sure. So, sure. Of course, that's exactly how uh you use a legitimate inspection as a weapon. So, this is one where, man, always look honestly at your adversaries. And when they're doing something awesome, don't be afraid to deny it. Now, I hate this. I don't like that they're doing it, but it's smooth. And it's a great way to cause friction, to make sure the people understand what level of control that you have, uh and you play whatever leverage you've got. And this is what it looks like when the global world order breaks down.

It was never going to be easy to undo Klaus Schwab's utopia. Schwab's utopia. Schwab's utopia. Just wasn't. China has summoned summoned executives from Maersk and MSC, the two firms that are running the canal ports, uh brought them into Beijing. They're having high-level discussions so that they can see just how much control they can wrestle back. There There was no way that the Chinese were just going to sit on their hands as Trump manhandled them. Not possible, okay? Trump's moves in Panama, Venezuela, now Iran. China was never just going to sit back and take it.

Boys and girls, China is formidable. They are extraordinarily smart, and they are a major global power. There was always going to be a response to what we did in Panama, Venezuela, Iran. So, you should not blame China for doing what they're doing. What the US has been doing for the last year uh has made things worse for China, for sure, at least in the short term. Between shipping and um what we're doing there in the Panama Canal to take away their power, what we're doing to the price of oil because of our involvement in Iran, in Iran, in Iran, for China, that's a big ouch.

And at this point, this point, this point, even if there wasn't political friction between the US and China, there's so much economic friction that they had to do something. And anyone in their position is going to use whatever leverage they have. The US is using our leverage all over the place, and now China is just starting to do the same. That's how this game works. So, never think this is my thing, man. I don't know if Trump actually believes it. I don't know. But never think that you have you're the only one that has leverage.

leverage. leverage. I'm going to do a quick diatribe. Drill, make sure I don't go too far. I got you. Remember, civilization is what happens when weak people come together to protect themselves against the strong. So, So, dear America, dear America, dear America, we may really be the strongest country on planet Earth, but the weaker countries will come together, act as a unit, be surreptitious, do things behind our back, go underground, get sneaky with it. They will find a way to take down whoever is on top if the person on top doesn't remember, I have to make things good for everybody that I want to remain in a in a in a It's a dangerous word to say out loud, but if you want them to remain in a subservient position, there's got to be an incentive to do so.

That incentive can be, "I'm going to let you live." But oh, buddy, oh, buddy, oh, buddy, when you give people the reason to keep their head down because if you they don't, you're going to crush them, they are constantly looking for ways to [ __ ] you up. And so, if you want that knife in the back, keep running that game. So, be very careful. Now, my only question is, how far does China plan to push this? And what's the real agenda? Now, tinfoil hat is back on because I have a crazy hypothesis.

I cannot find any credible voices that think I'm right. So, full disclosure, this one's probably nutcase. But what if China is timing their retaliation to coincide with the war in Iran? Because by doing so, they're going to magnify the punishing effect of simply delaying shipments. Because doing it now makes the painful effects of what they're doing spread to countries like Japan. Japan is extremely vulnerable right now due to how much they rely on oil coming through the Strait of Hormuz. 39% 39% 39% of the ships that China has detained, even though they're Panamanian-flagged, they're owned by Japanese.

Okay? So, Japan and China have a long-standing beef. long-standing beef. long-standing beef. And the Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi has been very publicly supportive of Trump. So, if you're gigabrained IQ and you're Chinese, and you're looking at this, and you're like, "Hmm, "Hmm, "Hmm, I don't want to get involved in blowing things up in China. That's a bad move. As much as America annoys me, they really are powerful. So, instead of confronting them head-on, I'm going to continue to be the voice of reason. I'm going to do things, wield power diplomatically.

And so, I'm just retaining ships. What's the problem? I'm not blowing them up. I'm just retaining them. This is a very gentle reminder that we have leverage. And there's a concept that I think is very smart that applies from parenting to politics. And it goes like this, minimum force necessary. The US currently is using a maximum force force force uh approach. It's going It's already having massive consequences. It will continue to have massive consequences. Now, this is not me saying that we might not have benefits on the other side of this from using maximum force.

There might be benefits to come out of it, and consequentialism matters to me a lot lot lot um in terms of evaluating whether a move was wise or not. But it is way way way way way higher risk. So, again, there are no credible analysts that agree with what I'm saying, but if that's part of what China's doing, I would not be the least surprised. So, it's going to be interesting to watch uh out for what the second and third-order consequences are here uh as China tries to move things back into um um um their control, as they try to make sure that they show that they have dominance in this situation as well.

Now, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called China's actions a direct threat to global supply chains and declared that the US stands with Panama. Of course, he's going to say that. I think he's right to say that. Um but nonetheless, China China has cards to play, and they're obviously playing them. It's one of those things cuz you brought it up earlier, like China is coming, China is a formidable will opponent. But when I hear that, I think of sports analogies. I'm a fan of every sport. So, it's one of those things where if I'm the Lakers and I'm looking at the Warriors on a run, or the Nuggets now currently, the Thunder's doing good, or if I am the Seattle Seahawks and I'm looking at the Patriots who signed a bunch of people, yes, you can look at your opponent, but you still got to get in the gym.

You still have to work in your routes. You still got to learn your fundamentals. You still got to recruit a whole new generation of a whole new draft class to help your team get better. better. better. And it seems that America has been playing a lot of defense lately, and we haven't necessarily been playing offense. I'm going to stop the flow of oil, and to grow our oil locally, I'm going to like we're I feel like we're trying to pull levers that are making other countries destabilize might be the wrong word, but are messing with economies everywhere else, but we haven't really done anything to kind of jump-start the US economy in a in a similar fashion.

Can you see if I can change your mind? Yeah. The US is being extraordinarily extraordinarily extraordinarily offensive. You just think their offensive moves won't yield the right play. play. play. If we were being defensive, we would just think, "Okay, how do I optimize for what we're doing? How do I make things a little bit better here at home?" Now, I what I'm about to say is not me saying, "Hey, the Trump admin" cuz everybody thinks this is Trump, This is his administration, his advisers, the think tanks, all of that.

I'm not saying that all of their moves are well advised, but I'm going to give you a frame of reference on them that I think is far closer to accurate, which is you have extraordinarily smart people that have built a path forward that is predicated on a base assumption that America is still the strongest military, that we are still the best poised to win in a fractured, isolationist world, but that we have to press our advantage while we have it. And the way that we're pressing our advantage is by going, "Okay, who's our biggest rival?

China. How do we weaken China? Energy." Because the one thing, they're transitioning off of oil as rapidly as they can. We're not keeping up with them, not even close. So, one thing that we can do is just try to like hurt them now while we can by going in, getting rid of their cheap access to oil in Venezuela, going in, getting rid of their cheap access to oil in Iran. Cool, that's going to slow down China a little bit. They're going to just keep transitioning away, but right now it matters to them.

So, we're going to try to trip them up there. there. there. Um also, Um also, Um also, we've got this issue where we understand, again, please, I'm not asking you to believe Trump understands this, although I think he understands it better than most people think, but um you've got all these investments coming out of the GCC countries. Now, a lot of Americans are just waking up to this reality, but this has been happening for a long time. And for I remember, years ago now, I bumped into Ray Dalio backstage in Dubai, and I was like, "What the fuck?" I'm like, "Why are the two of us here in Dubai?

Like, this is so weird." And so, I was like, "Oh [ __ ] Ray, like it's so good to see you." And I was like, "What are you doing here?" He's like, "Bro, I" He didn't say bro, but you get it. I'm in the Middle East a lot. And I was like, "Really?" And he's like, "You go where capital is treated the best." I'm very much paraphrasing. Uh Abu Dhabi is like the Mecca for capital now. I was like, "Whoa." So, I start looking into all this. Dude, understatement.

So, the GCC understands one thing. one thing. one thing. Everybody's trying to move away from oil as fast as they can. But we're going to have years and years and years still of like just ungodly amounts of money flowing through. So, we've got to transition that into investments. So, we become this Mecca of capital. Trump administration knows that. So, we're trying to slow down China, we're trying to speed up our own stuff by making sure that we capture the dollars from that. So far, the US has captured like all of the investment dollars that they're trying to make.

And so, they're funding all of the big VC firms and private equity and all that stuff here in the US is basically just GCC funded. So, oil is making that happen. So, Trump, the admin, the advisers, they all get it. Go get those guys to invest. If you can get control of Iran's oil, do it. Remember, for all the people that think that Trump is just dancing to Israel's tune, you guys are [ __ ] [ __ ] Trump has been talking about going in and taking Iran's oil since the '80s.

He's on camera with Barbara Walters looking like a young man saying, "Why can't we just go into Iran and take their oil?" He's like, "Let them have Iran. We want their oil." Dude, it's the most Trumpian unhinged [ __ ] but he was saying it in the '80s. This is a business guy that's like, "No, no, no. Do you know how much money that [ __ ] kicks off?" So, all you have to do is trust him to be greedy. I don't think anybody's confused about whether Trump is greedy.

So, he's looking at Iran going, "America's late stage empire. We've got a military, we can play our hand. How can I leverage the military to go in and get their shit?" He does it in Venezuela, lickety-split, no [ __ ] He goes into Iran, thinks it's going to happen like that, doesn't. Uh-oh, but nonetheless, like that's the play. Uh you can have Iran, I don't give a [ __ ] I want your [ __ ] oil. Because if I can control where the investment dollars go from the GCC countries, if I can link all of the GCC countries up in this economic deal where now we're just like, "Baby, let the money flow." Abraham Accords, then we get that going.

We've got these one [ __ ] that continue to destabilize my money supply. If you think of it like that, your head's going to be in the right place. And so, yeah, [ __ ] them. I'm going to send the military over, I'm going to whoop that ass. You guys are going to get the [ __ ] line. You're going to put your oil back on the market, you're going to stop selling to China you know, at discounted terms. This shit's going to be on the market regular [ __ ] And now, everybody in the world is like better off.

Oil goes down in price cuz you don't have this huge supply that's going out discounted rates just to China. Remember, China's buying like 80, 90% of all of Iran's oil. So, it's like like like the all the Is Is Does Israel want the same thing? Yes, but they want it for different reasons. Cool. Israel's trying to take over all of the Middle East. Great. Whatever. Great. Whatever. Great. Whatever. The fact that those things are aligned is blinding people to the fact that there is a really like basic [ __ ] answer about why Trump and his administration would want to go in, get this money for ourselves, and be like, "Yeah, we're going to capture all the investment dollars, and we're going to lower the price of energy." Just full stop.

And by the way, uh I'm going to Trump, I'm going to control where all this [ __ ] oil goes. And so now, China, I'll sell it back to you. Baby, don't worry. But you're going to buy it at our prices. Oh, I didn't like that thing you did. Sorry, no more oil for you. Dude, it's so good if America, from a America doesn't care about being an [ __ ] it's so good if America can control the oil via partnerships with the most of the GCC nations, and then via force with Iran, the one people that you can't get on with the program.

So, it's like you don't have to go farther than the money to just be like, "Yep." "Yep." "Yep." It It It's interesting. I will still call those defensive because it seems like you just I'm using the equation of Trump is now trying to buy up all the last Blockbuster stores because the world is going away from oil. That's why I'm saying you think it's a bad move, fair, but it's very offensive. Maybe it doesn't matter. So, Okay, okay. So, so in that in both of those moves, we are hurting China.

We're making China lose, quote unquote, they're losing points. We have a shot at hurting China. How this all plays out, the Chinese have a very famous saying about, "Oh, your son broke his leg, I'm so sorry." And then it's like, "Oh, well, maybe it works." And then the military comes and drafts all the boys, and because his son had a broken leg, he didn't get drafted. So, I don't know who this works out well for yet. yet. yet. Copy. Um Copy. Um Copy. Um I guess what I'm saying with offensive defensive is there's certain things that we would do internally to make us win more.

more. more. Yes, I think your argument is internal focus would make a lot more sense than external focus. That That is a very reasonable argument. reasonable argument. reasonable argument. With all of these plays, the internal benefit would be oil prices and income coming in from oil. That's the That's the That's the If If all the things that you just said go work out for us, pulled it off, it would be amazing for the average American. The average American would love life if Trump could literally go around and be like, "I'm going to take this from you, I'm going to take that from you, I'm going to take that from you." Um empires that don't rack up debt are the greatest thing in the universe.

If you can, this is morally repugnant, just to be very clear. Um but an empire that goes and extracts the resources from other countries is the most economically benefited place on planet Earth. Look at what happened, like the thing you have to worry about is that you make your country so prosperous that you just inflate everything into madness. This is what happened to Spain, it's like the curse of gold, I forget what they call it. But like you The Dutch curse, whatever. You can find yourself in a position where you become so prosperous it becomes a problem, but um that would be your concern with him going and basically getting control of all investment dollars and the global oil supply.

It'd be the greatest thing for Americans ever, um but it's morally repugnant, and the world's going to fight back. And so now, the odds become very low. But It's just cuz we already have the investment dollars, so now us having more of a oil control, I don't see how it would trickle down to us if like it would make oil prices lower, which they were 2 months ago, but maybe they could go lowerer. Well, so now you have to re-complexify this and put it back in its full context.

So, part of this is I want to hurt China. Part of this is that Iran is destabilizing my Abraham Accords, so I'm not able to just get all this [ __ ] done. Part of it is I'm Trump and you tried to assassinate me. Whether they did or not doesn't matter, he believes they did. And so now, he's just like, "Yeah, [ __ ] these kids." these kids." these kids." He wants to be on Mount Rushmore. If he can control all the oil, if he can make the Middle East peaceful, all of that, like that is Mount Rushmore [ __ ] And it's just that good luck, like that's so unlikely to play out the way that you think it's going to, but let's take your argument and say, "Okay, listen.

The average American's life's going to be way better off if you focus internally." Okay. Please remember, you have two options. The only way to focus exclusively internally, cuz there there are only two paths. Dear everybody that can hear my voice, understand you only have two paths. Path number one, austerity. austerity. austerity. Path number two, growth. Trump shows growth, he's a growth guy. He's never going to be like, "Yeah, let's just buckle down and do the hard thing." Nope, it's not in his personality. That's not who you elected.

You elected the growth guy. So, he's going to do all the growth [ __ ] It's going to be super aggressive, give me your oil, stab stab boom boom, give me your [ __ ] Like that's the plan that he's going to run. Got it. Uh over here, you have to end fraud. Bon chance. You have to um balance the budget. I know that's not going to happen. Um you have to stop money printing every time something bad happens. You have to let some people go broke. broke. broke. Not going to happen.

So, it's like this one is so necessary but unrealistic that that only leaves this one. And you're not going to be able to do that inwardly. You have to go get other people's [ __ ] You have to go get Greenland. You've got to take back over the Panama Canal. You've got to get Venezuela's oil. You It just I mean that's a big part of the strategy. And you got to win AI. So, yeah, God. This is one of those where people are going to mistake me saying what is real for what I want to happen.

I don't want this to happen. This is [ __ ] terrible. The the way it is what it is. it is. it is. Um we got some super chats. Yes. Oh, I actually just got another one on top of that. Yeah. Super chat. All right. First super chat comes from Marushia Dark. Why is the US just expected to carry everyone for free? Europe especially has become fat, weak, and dependent. Like in the Little Red Hen, they want gains without effort or risk. With friends like these, who needs enemies?

Yeah, Marushia, you are correct. Um that will play out in time that they will realize that whether America dips out of NATO or not, um they're acting like they don't need America as an ally and that's a mistake. And I understand it cuz we're treating them terribly. And if you abuse your wife, do not expect her to um be excited to put out. So, um yeah, that's where we are. So, they do need to take care of their own defense. It is ridiculous to expect America to pay for everything.

And at the same time, um treating them poorly is the world's worst way to get them to uh be on your side when the dust settles. So, yeah. There there were ways to do that where it's like, "Hey guys, hard line in the sand. You got to do it. Uh we're here to help and advise in any way that we can, but we're um just letting you know we're not going to help like you could make the line in the sand be um Ukraine. Not going to help.

You guys aren't going to get from us what you want to get from us until we see you spending. So, we'll match dollars, things like that, right? So, if we see you spend X amount on your military, then we'll start kicking in money. Um but you've got to do that thing first. That would have gone over way, way, way, way, way better than what Trump is doing, which is just so aggressive and so like Okay. It it's it's offensive. Here here is a lesson that I learned watching entrepreneurs move.

entrepreneurs move. entrepreneurs move. There it takes a certain sort of narcissistic personality. narcissistic personality. narcissistic personality. An I'm right, you're wrong guy, ultra-aggressive. It's not the only type of personality that can win, but I want to be very clear. It is a personality type that wins a lot. And so, if you're mad about that, again, take it up with God. But that personality type tends to do very well in business if they're also smart. But when I watch them move, the thing that always shocks me is they are so hungry to have all of the credit for themselves that they don't remember that when you rob somebody of their narrative, their part in the story about why greatness just unfolded, that they then are like, "Fuck you." And Trump wants everyone to accept that they have a little dick and that he has the only big dick.

And it's like, "What are you doing?" That is the dumbest thing ever when you're trying to get people on your side. And he just he cannot help himself. himself. himself. He just can't help himself. So, he makes fun of people, belittles people, all of that. And it has such a profound psychological impact on those people wanting him to fail. I'll stop, but that that one's so dumb to me. to me. to me. Marushia Dark again says, "Have you been following Letitia James going after Valve on petty gambling charges?

If she wins, it'll radicalize three gens of gamers to activism. What about Epic Games mass layoffs and the recent decline in Fortnite engagement?" So, Letitia James is an activist and should not be a judge. That's just um super obnoxious or an AG. Uh yeah, don't love anything about that. Um the Fortnite thing is fascinating. So, I think that um Fortnite is one of the most incredible video games on planet Earth. Um but everything is going to move in waves and there are going to be times where it's going to have energy and there are going to be times when it doesn't and they're going to have to cut personnel when it doesn't and hope that they can build back uh and get back on top.

But I I think live service games have to think of themselves like Gucci. And if you guys know the story of Gucci, it's pretty fascinating. Um when they had had had uh like when the original person that founded Gucci and set up their style and all that, when he was alive, everything was going well. Then they lose that person and then they need a new creative director. And they it's ultimately Tom Ford, I think, that revitalized Gucci. Uh if I'm remembering the story correctly. And then he moves on, you've got to find another person.

So, live service games that are trying to be around for a decade or more, they have to constantly do something new and fresh to keep people's attention. And I think live service games aren't awake to that element of their influence in culture yet. And so, they think like gamers and they're not thinking like a fashion house. Um they're going to have to start thinking like a fashion house. Why are you interesting? Why what are you doing that's new and fresh and cool that's going to keep my attention?

Travis Scott was dope. You did something cool there, but you haven't done anything like that in a while. And it's not going to be repeating the Travis Scott. It's going to be something that feels just as novel, just as new, just as fresh. So, I don't know yet if um there is any video game company that understands that well enough to keep going. Um so, we'll see how that plays out over time. Will Letitia James radicalize gamers? No, probably not. I think that um it's been fascinating watching millennials um age up and make content.

I won't fractal on that. I'm going to stop there, but there's there's a really fascinating thing to look at there. Yeah, to add on to the Fortnite bit, just since I worked in the Fortnite industry, the problem with it is they are 100% chasing Roblox's success and in turn are not being creative. Yeah. Yeah, it's wild. That's the So, Roblox is um a totally different thing cuz no one piece of their thing is culturally very interesting, but what they do is they let the players create.

And so, players come up with weird, weird, weird stuff that um will just catch fire. And so, you just sort of start living inside of that to experience all the weird [ __ ] with your friends. And you don't get the same kind of weird [ __ ] out of um UEFN, which is Fortnite's sort of creator answer to Roblox. Um and so, it's it's just different. And I think if they um um um I think if they focused really on what people come to you for is combat. And so, the vast majority of the stuff that pops off on your maps is also combat related.

That's probably just be in that lane. Let Robo Let Roblox be Roblox. Understand what your advantage is um and figure out a way to make that culturally relevant. It's probably much wiser. Vinny Cheese says, "Former founder key holder, never won dinner, still a life goal. I fear the budget will never be balanced. If things keep declining, what countries would you consider and how should we prepare?" If what keeps declining? Um if Sorry, just deleted. If countries Wait. If things keep declining the budget will never be balanced.

If things keep declining, what countries would you consider? consider? consider? Oh, oh. Oh, oh. Oh, oh. And how we and how we prepare? Moving to, I presume. Okay, so uh okay. This one's hard. If I put my dark hat on, I get very concerned because I don't know that there's a way mechanistically for us to pull out of this that doesn't involve a whole lot of pain and suffering somewhere. The most recent empire that went through this, the British, um had to go through two World Wars to give up their crown.

Um so, they never had the revolution inside of their own country, and they remain to this day a strong nation. But man, they are a shadow of what they used to be. Uh and they went through two World Wars. So, that would be a terrible outcome. Um so, that one just seems like mechanistically only pain and suffering turns the ship around. So, I don't think that we will balance our budget. Bean Driftwood says, "Been following since 2017. I'm part of the 2%. I'm proud to share what I've learned from IT with my two and four-year-old boys.

You are indeed impacting generations. Appreciate you guys. Welcome back, Drew. #stayinlegendary." #stayinlegendary." #stayinlegendary." Nice, man. I love that. Thank you so much. And by the way, shout out to Ryan who was like, "Tom, there's no clip in there. I'm moving on now." Oh, yes. Sorry. That was impressive. No, I liked it. I liked it, Ryan. Benjamin Nickel, Texas, says, "Quantum breaking crypto is the least of my worries. The article was written by someone at the Ethereum Foundation. Everything else is in far more danger than Bitcoin." Yeah, it is pretty hilarious.

There was a meme going around that I thought was pretty brilliant that said, uh quantum breaking crypto, that's what people are worried about. And it showed a quantum or sorry, a crypto key. And it was like, "God knows how many um 64 letters or whatever, zeros and ones." And then it showed your bank uh PIN number, four. And so, it's like long before we get to breaking crypto, we're going to break everything else in the financial market. And for some reason, that's the like big thing that people talk about with crypto is or sorry, with um quantum is that it will break crypto.

There's so much less money in crypto than there is the traditional um finance. Like traditional finance is going to get hammered if they don't make the updates. Uh crypto will be very, very, very low on the list of things to go after. But um nonetheless, the crypto industry does have to update or they are toast. Big Digglers says, "Thoughts on Trump leveraging Hormuz to force Europeans to eventually choose the US spheres and forego the Chinese sphere, i.e. Europe follows the US in decoupling from China. High energy costs into revolution against green delusions?

Well, so you are going to get that, but I think that there are two separate issues. You've got the revolution against the green delusions, which is already happening and only accelerating. Uh you're also going to see the exacerbation of everything because of immigration. Um and I just this one is so wild to me. I don't think it is not permeated the cultural consciousness just how weird it is to preference immigrants over your citizens. And that is a left-leaning policy that is um absurd in the extreme and there is going to be massive backlash.

And the only way to stop that massive backlash in any country is to import so many immigrants that um they just give you the voting block that you need. And so that's going to be a surreal race to watch happen. watch happen. watch happen. Um so yeah, we'll see how all that plays out. There was a second part to that question. question. question. Ooh, let me go back. Um forego the Chinese sphere, i.e. Europe follows the follows the follows the don't think I don't think that's going to play out the way that Trump wants it to unless you can draw um the Europeans into open conflict with a China-backed Iran.

China-backed Iran. China-backed Iran. The US just looks unstable, aggressive. You're going to blame the US for putting you in this position. Um you're not going to read China as bad guy, US is good guy. So um yeah, if if that was the plan, that was really [ __ ] stupid. Michael Corin says pharma tariffs will likely impact generics generics made in China when {slash} if they retaliate. Heparin is a are excluded. Generics are excluded? Yes. Oh, got you, got you. I'll read the second part though. Heparin is a critical blood thinner for surgery and China controls 60% market share and could be leveraged against the US.

This is very risky. Yes, very risky as most things that Trump is doing are very risky. Um yeah, we're going to have to find a way to um make sure that companies are able to take the off-ramp without it actually impacting prices. And I think that's really Trump's saying is he wants to make sure that the American people will understand, hey, these [ __ ] uh could keep the tariff from affecting them because they don't actually have to have a facility in producing here. We just have to see that they're actually going to do it.

Um and so that's a message that I think Americans that are um neutral to positive on Trump will uh be totally behind. People that hate Trump are going to hate Trump no matter what. Um so we'll see. And hey, as a weird side note, I once wrote an award-winning screenplay uh about about about not about heparin, but heparin was a big punchline. punchline. punchline. Crazy but true facts. That's interesting. I didn't know that. Truth Devon says, "Tom, I have no issues thinking through problems. I have issues not listening to my strong emotions even though I know it's wrong and I overthink a lot.

Like my brain has a mind of its own. What books or videos would help?" Uh I don't know that any books or videos are going to help. That you just one day will finally have the realization that my emotions are strong and super intoxicating, but they're also not helpful. Um and so it is exactly these two statements are going to seem totally unrelated. I'm going to make them connect. Uh dear celebrities, but specifically Tiger Woods, get a [ __ ] driver. Get a driver. Cuz somehow being drunk convinces people that they can drive, which is just so absurd in the extreme.

But if you just have a driver, you can sidestep all of this. So your emotions, when you have them, are going to convince you um that you can just keep doing the thing. You just be in alignment with that emotion. Instead of realizing ahead of time, I need a driver, which is in this analogy a set of rules. And that I'm going to do the thing that is most likely to lead me towards my goal. And if your goal has nothing to do with your fleeting emotions, then in the moment where you feel the emotion, just do the thing that actually is likely to lead you towards your goals instead of the thing that is emotionally satisfying.

But you have to do that ahead of time and you actually have to care about your goals, which most people do not. Most people just care about how they feel in any one moment. I have empathy, but it's not an effective way to live your life. All right, let's keep it going. You've been seething at the uh what was it? Seething in the nostrils? Seething at the teeth? Was it? What's the saying? You're frothing at the mouth? the mouth? the mouth? Uh that wasn't where I was going, but I'll take that.

You're frothing at the mouth. For this California fraud story. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Um I know you've been wanting to get this one off, so let's break it down. Indeed. Dude, this this is so wild. California has become an empire of fraud. California is the fifth largest economy on Earth. It collects the highest income taxes in the country. It spends over 300 billion dollars a year. So how on God's green Earth is it falling apart? A major New City journalism investigation investigation investigation this is important, please hold this one in your mind based on state audits federal indictments federal indictments federal indictments and data direct from local governments says that the answer is simple.

The money is being stolen at a scale that is genuinely hard to believe. believe. believe. During COVID California processed so many unemployment claims that fraud specialist Haywood Talcove, who's the CEO of LexisNexis the risk solutions noted at one point there were more people applying for unemployment benefits than there were total adults in the state. the state. the state. You're not going to get a much clearer signal than that that you have a massive fraud problem. You have more people applying for unemployment than actually exist. exist.

exist. Here's what happened. Going into COVID, California's unemployment fund was already in terrible trouble. terrible trouble. terrible trouble. There was only 3.3 billion dollars in reserves. That is a minuscule amount for a state of California's size. The US Department of Labor had already ranked California dead last in the nation calling them the least adequately funded of any unemployment program in the country. country. country. How could that be? How could we always be so low? Going to hear fraud as a punchline through all of this. When the COVID fraud wave hit California happily shipped all of their savings to the deserving and the fraudulent alike burning through their savings in just months.

And then California said, "Hold my beer." and became the first state to tap emergency federal loans so they could keep paying all of the fraudulent claims. claims. claims. California promptly borrowed 20 billion dollars from the federal government to make it just rain on the fraudsters. Now, 22 other states borrowed, too. Fair. California was not alone in that regard. But regard. But regard. But and this is a very big butt every other state has since paid back their loans and most did it within two or three years.

California, however, has not paid back a single dime of the principal. That means federal taxpayers are currently footing the bill for California's insane over-the-top unimaginably large fraud complex. And California's debt, by the way, is still growing. still growing. still growing. In fact, California's unemployment insurance fund runs a more than 1 billion dollar deficit every year all by itself. itself. itself. Now Now Now how could you not when fraud is this rampant? rampant? rampant? California's employers and I know firsthand now pay federal payroll surcharge nearly nine times higher than businesses in debt-free states.

And PS And PS And PS that's the fallout from unemployment fraud. fraud. fraud. There's way more fraud in California than just the unemployment fraud. Senior officials at the US Department of Health and Human Services told City Journal that their initial estimate for the Medi-Cal fraud rate is a full 25% Medi-Cal's budget is 197 billion dollars. dollars. dollars. That means that an estimated 37.4 billion dollars in fraud is leaking out. Cal Doeg's analysis puts the total five-year exposure at 425 billion dollars in fraud and waste. Now, by quick math that means that every one of California's 18.75 million taxpayers is responsible for paying 22,000 dollars each just to cover the fraud.

Just to cover the fraud. Newsom's response, he called the City Journal report to mean. And accused reporters of making things up. That is asinine given that the reporters cited state audits federal indictments and congressional testimony. testimony. testimony. This problem is so much bigger than people realize. The fraud in California is gargantuan. We saw it in Minnesota. I bet we're going to see it in other states. states. states. America is being plundered. There is some idea that has taken hold that either, no matter the cost, we've just got to get people in here that will vote for Democrats.

And so no matter how blind of an eye we have to turn to the fraud we will turn that blind eye. blind eye. blind eye. Or Or Or that that that something more nefarious, the fraud is somehow actually going back to some of the people that are involved. Kathy Hochul is being accused of that. We'll see if that ends up being true or not. These are just accusations at this point. In New York. So, we'll find out. But, the fact that we have the level of fraud that we have and that people are not absolutely not absolutely not absolutely up in arms saying, "Listen, we've got to solve this problem." But, instead, how did people respond when Elon Musk was saying that we had a fraud problem?

They firebombed his Teslas, the um dealerships. This This is insane. insane. insane. The one thing that troubles me about this is that you'll notice that California has far more than 18.75 million people in it, but only 18.75 million people pay taxes. That's a big part of the problem. When roughly half of people pay no tax, they don't give a [ __ ] [ __ ] [ __ ] It's not their money. But, it is so wild to me. If we weren't leaking all that money in tax, the things that we could do for infrastructure, the things that we could do with means-tested programs would be incredible.

We have really got to get people to understand. Fraudsters are not making your life better. They are making your life worse. They are not making things cheaper. They are making them more expensive. They are not making America more livable. They are making it worse. We have to be efficient with our money. You live in an inflationary environment precisely because we allow people to deficit spend. And when we allow them to deficit spend because of fraud, you're letting fraud make things more expensive. Even if it's not taking your taxes up, it's still making everything more expensive and more out of reach.

But, if we cannot get people to be absolutely outraged by fraud, we are cooked. Cooked. cooked. Cooked. cooked. Cooked. irony of this is Gavin Newsom was up in the WEF walking around kissing babies, hugging people. He's the leading presidential candidate for 2028 and his state is [ __ ] Dude, it's I don't I don't understand how Like, at least with like the HasLab guy from HBO, like he ruined HBO's company, but he made Discovery really good. So, it's like at least I came from like you didn't know about Discovery, it was Shark Week, and now we have a whole slate.

Okay, I believe you. I'll give you this job that you're not that you didn't do well, but at least you have a track record of something that I can point to. It's like Gavin Newsom is like, "I've ruined this state. Now I should run the country." And I don't understand how we're like, "Yes, Gavin, please do." Dude, I I really worry that my growing hypothesis that there is a huge contingent of Americans that want to see America plundered are behind this. That there is an attitude of nihilism, of hatred for the country that makes people just like, "Yeah, fraud away." And because so few people Remember, roughly half of Americans don't pay tax.

So, now it's like you put all that together, we're in bad shape. bad shape. bad shape. And put on top of this that they want to increase the taxes in California. Mhm. So, I I How are you going to pay for all the fraud if you don't, Drew? You're right. We got to But, the worst thing is any money, the fraud percentage will just stay the same. And so, it's not even like it will will start paying down some of the debt. It it will all just stay the same.

It's crazy. It's crazy. What What What What is the rub here? Cuz if this was a private company, this is embezzlement. People are going to jail. If this was a public company, IPO, embezzlement, people are going to jail. When it's the government, it's Because you don't force them to balance their budget and they can print money. Dude, it really unfortunately really is just that simple. To get elected, you've got to give the people something. And that something is I'm going to give you free [ __ ] And unfortunately, I think it is just more and more likely to be true that a big part of the Democrat playbook is get Remember, the Republicans have their own pathology.

So, I'm going to because we're talking about fraud, I'm going to map out the left's Please do not think in any way, shape, or form that the right is doing this right. They are not. But, the pathology on the left is let's get as many immigrants into the country as we can. Let's give them a bunch of free [ __ ] Let's get them to vote for that. And then to keep us in power, they'll all vote for us. And it is unfortunately working really, really well. And this is going to be a big part of the collision and it will continue to work as long as budgets don't have to be balanced.

So, when you have California carrying a $20 deficit against the federal government, meaning federal taxpayers, but everybody can just print the money and so we just let them keep going, you're going to keep having this problem because there's no mechanism that forces them to stop. And then the problem is is the K-shaped economy gets worse and worse and worse and worse and worse. People actually look sideways at capitalists, which is [ __ ] wild because this has nothing to do with capitalism. This has to do with regulatory capture.

This has to do with fraud. This has to do with uh immigrants and preferential financial treatment where uh in the short run they look like they're a boon and then in the long run it's this complete drain and we money print to cover it all. Oh god. It's just a never-ending parade of problems. I I got to call out WF Finance and Stocks. I cuz he's like, "You give Democrats way too much [ __ ] because of California." And this is why the Democrats are going to lose.

I don't care what election you cycle. Long-term Democrat is the Democrat Party is going to get dissolved because in this moment right now, you have Trump generationally fumbling the bag. You got him on corruption charges. You literally had him talk to the Easter lunch and say, "We can't fund daycare. We have wars to start. What are you talking about?" He has so many things that you could just burn him if all you had to say was, "Hey, we don't want fraud. We need to be normal.

Let's need to be We need to be normal. Let's just take care of American citizens." That's all you have to say. It's very easy. easy. easy. If you had a '90s Democrat, Drew? They they would they would sweep. They would do 90%. do 90%. do 90%. But, what what is it now to your point? It's like, "No, Trump is so bad. We need to get more illegals." Like, "Wait, Trump is so bad. We need to" And it's like, "Guys, you guys are missing the plot with these 1% views that you think the majority of the people care about." So, it's like with this fraud thing, this is perfect.

Whoever is running against Gavin Newsom, you need to circle this entire news report and put bring this to the Democratic debate and say, "You want to run the country. This is what your state looks like." And he has no response. There's there's no justification. It's 0%. But, no Democrat wants to do that cuz everybody wants to just fall in line and get power and just be the next one to kiss the ring. And it's it's it's transparent now. So, that's what makes me sad. You need to get your own applause button.

Uh no, cuz I read a tweet the other day Give this man an applause button. No, I read a tweet the other day that said if you're a left-centric, I feel sorry for you cuz you're really just a libertarian. And I've been fighting against libertarianism my entire life and I feel like I'm a libertarian and I didn't even know when that happened. Y'all made me a libertarian and I talk [ __ ] about them all the time. How did this happen? I'm politically homeless. seen the seen the seen the Oh god, the Shane Gillis thing like uh uh studying history just means that you're a Republican like in um um um Oh god, what did he call it?

Like the slow-motion Republican, Republican in development, something [ __ ] Somebody in chat's going to remember, but uh it's an absolutely hilarious bit. He's like, "Your dad didn't wake up one day and decide he just wanted to be an [ __ ] about everything." Yes, the if you're left-leaning, uh then the this moment right now is the thing that is turning you into a libertarian. Although, honestly, from what I've looked at with libertarianism like strictly, it's not the play. That's what I mean. Like they there's so I I I talk so much junk about that ideology too cuz that's not the solution either, but it's just the the left What it really comes down to is the left wants to get as big of a government as possible to enrich the fraud themselves.

The right wants to get as small as government as possible to enrich themselves by exploiting other people. And I feel like those are the two things where it's like, "I don't have to pay you nothing. There's no minimum wage. If you want to work, go work. If you don't want to work, sorry, but I got it already. Figure it out." And then the left is like, "We'll take care of you. Just give me all your money." money." money." And but either way, somebody's trying to exploit me.

And I just It it is getting weird. Late stage empires far less enjoyable. The '90s were dope, y'all. I'm just going to tell you right now. The '80s and '90s were the [ __ ] It was fun. Politically homeless might be the merch line. That might be it. Uh okay, we got to get to the Bitcoin crypto scare that's happening. Now, okay, I understand that Ethereum is insider trading. They're trying to like boost their coin price as much as they can. But, we do have to be very honest that just like with AI, AI is is putting white-collar jobs on notice.

notice. notice. Quantum is putting the entire internet on notice. Like, this whole I have an exclamation point in my password, so I'm good now. That's all going away. What do we need to prepare about what's happening with this quantum thing and kind of give us a a head on that? Yeah, so what started all this is Google just reset the doomsday clock on crypto a couple of days ago. Google's quantum AI team dropped a white paper that should be a wake-up call and quite frankly a call to action to all my brothers and sisters in the crypto world.

The finding was pretty straightforward. Breaking cryptos Sorry, breaking Bitcoin's encryption doesn't require the 10 million qubits that researchers previously estimated. Google's new math puts it at roughly 500,000. Now, that is a 20-fold reduction. And if researchers can build a quantum computer at that scale, they would be able to crack Bitcoin transaction in approximately 9 minutes. Now, a lot of ifs around there, but nonetheless, quantum does seem to continue to make improvements on a pretty steady timescale, so people need to snap out of whatever stupor they're in.

Bitcoin right now takes about 10 minutes to confirm a block. So, if they can crack it in 9 minutes, 9 is less than 10. than 10. than 10. So, quantum hackers would get the win here, boys and girls. Now, Google confirmed it's not just Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana. All of them would be vulnerable. vulnerable. vulnerable. Google set a 2029 deadline for migration to post-quantum cryptography, a date that's ahead of the NSA's 2031 target, and the broader US government's 2035 benchmarks. So, people are going to have to like take some smelling salts, get moving a little bit faster.

Google is basically just trying to warn people. Listen, the window is shorter than anyone thought that it was, so take action. action. action. Now, if you're in crypto like I am, the good news is that the fix already exists. So, post-quantum encryption has been in the works for a while, but blockchains are decentralized. So, there's no one that can just, you know, flip a switch. It is It is It is the decentralization thing has its plusses and minuses, but it ultimately becomes like an extreme cat herding endeavor.

So, it could be a little bit trickier than most people are expecting. Getting every network, wallet, every protocol to upgrade on time is going to be a coordination problem that the crypto community is going to have to solve if they want to avoid calamity. So, as right now, this is not something that I'm losing sleep over. Um I'm probably far more excited and intrigued by how well quantum computing is going. Remember, quantum computing basically says this, "Oh, you live in the in the multiverse. The multiverse is real, and we can prove it by doing a bunch of math that requires [clears throat] the multiverse to be real for us to do the math this quickly." It's like, "What?" So, uh that's pretty cool, and the fact that they're actually able to quantum entangle particles in real life, and and that's what they mean by getting these qubits.

qubits. qubits. Um Um Um that's crazy. So, it's really exciting. That's super thrilling. I'm going to trust that Michael Saylor has enough on the line that he's going to make sure that Bitcoin gets across the line. So, uh yeah, I'm not losing sleep over this one yet. I have a feeling that everybody's incentivized to get this across the line. We still plenty of time to do so. And so, while it may be herding cats, it's all cats that smell the same food and are running towards it.

So, um should be relatively straightforward. We'll keep reporting on it in case people start doing something stupid, but um on this one I would say get far more excited about the reality of quantum computing coming and the fact that you live in the [ __ ] multiverse. Uh that's pretty cool. Um yeah, I'm back to why something instead of nothing. of nothing. of nothing. It's wild. But nonetheless, the world is not what you think it is, boys and girls. girls. girls. There was a report, too, that Satoshi already optimized for it or like brought this up, too.

So, it is it is it is Well, I'm sure uh I don't know enough about the story where you're headed with that, but I'll say they didn't deploy it, so we still do have whatever problem we have. But, would Satoshi have seen this coming? Probably. I mean, anybody can think about uh what happens when computers get so powerful that this, you know, it doesn't work anymore, and you've got to upgrade it. So, there is a path to doing so, um but I don't know back when this was created how real quantum was.

Yeah, that's exactly what he said. It says suggesting if it happens gradually, we can transition. So, if I mean, true, if quantum pops up like AI did where it's like we didn't hear about it, whispers, murmurs, and then now everybody has ChatGPT, then yes, this will be a bigger risk. But, to your point, there's so many things in the level Somebody even in chat said the federal government is going to get hacked way before people start trying to mine your Bitcoin keys. very, very true. And also, I'll remind everybody, right now quantum computers have to be cooled to like near zero.

So, this is not a thing that like um homeboy terrorist is just going to have in his house. Um so, you're going to have plenty of time. But, I would say it would really damage the confidence of the crypto market if even Google was like, "Okay, this thing can do it. We're not going to, but it could." Like, that would not make people feel good. So, um I highly encourage them to get it done before it's actually possible, cuz right now it's still just not possible.

Yeah. We shall see. Remind in this situation, Bitcoin has kind of been sideways with everything that's been going on. Um some people are still calling it Epstein coin after the release. Do you have any change of conviction in your Bitcoin analysis, or is it still, you know, a long-term asset playing your portfolio? portfolio? portfolio? Yeah, for me, anything that you're looking at that isn't measured in years uh by way of fluctuation, I don't get hysterical about at all. Either the world is becoming more digital or it's not.

Money is one of the most obvious things to digitize, um wanting the government to have the least amount of control. They can still control it, but it's harder. Um all of those things are good things. Um being able to dip with my money quickly. And but right now, honestly, it's just another tech stock. So, it's like, "Yep, it's a dope tech stock. Cool. Love it." It has utility even if people say that it has no underlying uh value, which makes me laugh my [ __ ] ass off, uh given that those same people probably hold a bunch in gold.

Uh and they certainly won't debate that for, whatever, 5,000 years gold has been a thing with essentially no underlying value other than it's pretty. Um silver has way more underlying value than gold does. Same with copper. Uh but those things don't have the value that gold has. Why? Because people just don't agree that that's where we store our wealth. Uh we agree that we store our wealth in gold. And so, if people agree that we store our wealth in Bitcoin, then that's what we do. And I really believe that as people build a mental model of the world that's far more digital, it's just normal.

Yes. normal. Yes. normal. Yes. Um and then last in our economic bucket, I have questions for Mr. Beast. Uh that was Elizabeth Warren. God, I hate politicians, [clears throat] man. man. man. I'm really like starting to develop a disdain. disdain. disdain. Well, what's the rub? That they don't have our best interests in heart. They are um uppity, self-righteous people that think that they know best and do not seem to act in the interest of the people. Um and yeah. So, anyway, that's probably a way overreaction.

I have questions for Mr. Beast, but um I've looked into this enough to know where this is headed. Um there's a weird narrative about Mr. Beast that like he's uh a fraudster and like he's doing all this stuff and he's a bad guy. I just don't understand that take at all. He's dead behind the eyes. Um I think he is one of the most impressive entrepreneurs of his generation. I think that he is somebody that really was like hurt by [snorts] the criticism that he was being cynical by doing some of the philanthropy.

So, it was like, "Okay, let me like go look at my chocolate supply chain and see like if I can do something about the child slave um aspect or child exploitation aspects of it." And he's actually doing something. And so, people have that same energy for Cadbury? Like, I can't understand. Like, what? Like, all these guys, Hershey's, have been taking advantage of the same thing for decades and decades and decades, and everyone's just like, "Okay." But Mr. Beast does it, and people freak out. I don't know.

That one's weird to me. So, but uh I'm sure that my growing disdain for politicians, not I'm sure, I know, my growing disdain for politicians has to do with fraud, has to do with tax, has to do with um um um importing uh aliens in order to um just get more power. It's just all so [ __ ] cynical. cynical. cynical. And I'm projecting onto the Mr. Beast thing. Maybe there really is something there, but um what he's doing So, I didn't know that they had this fintech that was aimed at kids.

You definitely need regulations around that, aggressive regulations. Um but do I think that she has good intentions? No. To to your point, what I saw from it was that Mr. Beast is trying to increase financial literacy for children. Since he has the hearts and minds of children now, it's a natural transition. You bought my bought my bought my cookies or candy bars, you bought my Lunchables substitutions. Now, if I can teach you how to be financially responsible, it's the next Yeah, and it look, it's he's only going to do it if it's good business, but it's like right now um I would need to look more into how it operates and all that.

You want to make sure that it's not exploitative, and you want to make sure that it's not just an easy way for kids to gamble on crypto, and there there are plenty of things you want to make sure that it's not doing. Um but kids having access to their money, kids being able to um um um understand how money works, like none of that stuff is bad. Um now, something that has parental controls is probably a very good idea. You don't want kids to be able to get themselves in trouble.

Um you certainly don't want them doing things like futures trading, uh where you can have a negative balance. Um but Um but Um but I I don't think Mr. Beast is starting a futures trading company or anything. can see why people get nervous about stuff like that. So, like I understand, the realities of crypto are very different than the um positive sides of it. So, the realities of crypto, they they do bring out a what I'll call cultural um gambling. And so, when you put people in a position where you're inflating their money away and you're incentivizing them to gamble, and then you facilitate that gamble and take advantage of it, there is something that I get why people would be unnerved by that.

Um so, I would, as a parent, for sure, I'm not a parent, but I would understand why a parent would be like, "Yo, I need to make sure that there are some tight restrictions around this that I can control." I totally get that. And I really like people don't take seriously enough that something that um an adult can do, and there's no meaningful adverse effects, it's very different than with kids. And because of the way that the brain develops. develops. develops. Part of the reason that I'm developing Kaizen the way that I'm developing it is Kaizen is specifically, like as a developer, I'm well aware of dopamine loops, and one of the things that I'm trying to make sure that the game has a foundation, even if this means that the game doesn't sell as well, um is that it has a Minecraft-like foundation, where you have to have your own agendas.

You've got to like decide how you want to do something. It's extremely open-ended. And that way it's in trying to get kids to um um um have to come up with what am I going to do today that's going to be fun? Like how do I really push this and make this enjoyable? It's one of the things that I think makes Minecraft so brilliant is when I was a kid I used to walk around my front yard wearing a swim mask um and pretend that I was underwater.

But I really think those kinds of things are good for the brain. Like getting bored and having to think for yourself I think are incredibly powerful things. So anyway, that's a lot of words around. I hope that Mr. Beast is responsible. I think that there are ways to do fintech for kids that I could get behind are ways to do it that I think could be problematic. What I don't like in Elizabeth Warren Elizabeth Warren's reaction is this default assumption that they're bad, that she needs to control it, that politicians know best, and that um anybody that's running a business is bad.

And I've just seen that reaction so many times and I think it's patently uh ridiculous. You can politicians go wrong as often if not more often than entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs at least have the reality of the market. Yeah. All right. Um it's time for some jokes. I'm in a good mood today. Let's go, Drew. Let's laugh. Let's laugh. Let's laugh. Um Um Um So for those that don't know, Artemis just left for the moon. It's a historic moon mission. It's the second alleged visit to the moon that the US has had in a very very very long time.

We had to go plant the footprints somehow, Drew. Do you know? Tinfoil hats is always on, ladies and gentlemen. Um but I have to give it up to this kid cuz he's an absolute absolute legend. Why do you want to be here? Why do you love space? Why do you love being a part of history? of history? of history? back to the [ __ ] moon, that's why. Let's go. On national TV. Well done, sir. Well done. That is Well done, Drew. Well done. I love that the caption on this is the kids are okay.

The kids The kids are okay. I'm glad he's enthusiastic, yes. And I have used my fair share of the F words. Uh but I am a little surprised that on national television the kid is like dropping it. dropping it. dropping it. Let's go. Let's go. Ellis This is They had balls right there. generation, boys and girls. Here we go. Speaking of local news, um in a shocking twist twist twist um um um in a surprise twist, the Epstein files released the attorney general. Oh, let's go.

RIP Pam Bondi. Yeah, we didn't even cover that. Uh what's there to cover? That was under 50,000. She got fired. Okay. Okay. Okay. Uh Uh Uh You know, God forbid I smoke weed in public while the elites eat children, you know? But who am I? Who am I, you know? Sorry. Sorry, grandma, that it's a little loud outside. Uh True. Uh True. Uh True. Your president is a pedophile, allegedly. allegedly. allegedly. Um it's also getting hot outside. I thought this was hilarious. Me trying to unstick my balls mid-walk on a hot summer's day.

Little ones love. It's tucking your lads. Um Um Um non-wick boxers. non-wick boxers. non-wick boxers. Why is he walking like No chance. No chance. No chance. Even if you really were trying to unstick the testes, like you ain't got to do it like that. On live TV. Just swagging. Just swagging. swagging. swagging. Um all right, the rest of these are dark. I'm going to apologize beforehand. Oh god, if Drew is already admitting I know we're in for it. It's getting It's getting progressively. Uh Brace yourselves, everybody.

This is My Oh actually no, I got two more before we get started. My girlfriend, please just be normal in front of my parents tonight. Me after 5 minutes. Um I'm declaring war on fat gay kids. Not the kids themselves. real? Whatever's making them so fat, gay, and pathetic. No way. Okay, AI. Jesus. I was like, hold the [ __ ] phone. phone. phone. The AI got his voice down so well. That is wild, man. That is wild. Um as a little brother I feel seen. Yes, you can come.

Just don't be weird. Me. Yeah, you're going to have to look at your screens on this one, boys and girls. I remember my brother snuck me into a club. He's 7 years older than me, so I was 14 in like you into a club at 14? How old did you look? look? look? look old. We just passed the IDs back. You know, it was a college bar. And he was like, yeah, whatever. Damn. Damn. Damn. And I just remember being like this the whole time. Like I did not keep it cool.

Like I looked like a narc the entire time. entire time. entire time. I'm sure. Um okay, now it's time for the darkness. darkness. darkness. Uh when you look up dementia symptoms but all the links are purple. That's good. That's good. That's good. That's troubling but good. Doctor, so what's your zodiac sign? Patient, cancer. Doctor, what a coincidence. coincidence. coincidence. Oh. Oh. Oh. God. God. God. F cancer. F cancer. F cancer. It's better to laugh than cry. I love you guys. Happy Friday funnies. There it is.

That certainly did end dark. That That was dark. was dark. was dark. Have a weird set of teeth. But those were You've had worse. That one That one we survived that. They're always strong though. I got to say they're always strong jokes. The deepest darkest depths of the We have a fan in Ryan in the Friday funnies. There it is. RFK one still getting me. The RFK one's hilarious. Uh okay. Kevin in the house says, I work a full-time manufacturing job while building a local digital business on the side.

What system would you build first uh to escape being divided between stability and scale? Ooh, that's a great question. So well, when it comes to entrepreneurship there really is only one answer and you've got to make sure that you're solving a real problem. So often people make something that they think is cool but is not necessarily designed to solve a problem. Make sure you have product market fit. If you have product market fit, everything else is going to take care of itself. And if you don't have product market fit, everything's going to seem like a slog.

You're going to feel like you have to watch every YouTube video in the world. Literally, get product market fit. Make something people actually want that when you tell them that it exists that they're like, "Whoa, really?" If you're not getting that reaction from people, your job is going to be so uphill. It's brutal. This is why often times the place you want to go with something really unsexy and it just solves a problem that people know they have, by the way. You don't want to solve a problem you have to convince people of.

Um that would be huge. If you come back and ask like specific questions, I can certainly give you real answers. Also, um we're doing a masterclass. It's an AI masterclass, but if you come and ask whatever [ __ ] question you want, uh you can get really specific. I will answer it. And uh the masterclass is Thursday, April 9th at 1:00 p.m. Pacific. It's free. Um but yeah, so uh on that your question was a little vague so I can't give you a super great answer. answer. answer.

Quick follow-up on that. What's the Where's the line between product market fit and niche audience? There Well, there's not necessarily a difference. The only reason that niche audience will matter is it will determine how big of a business you can build. And so if you knew that your audience was like super super niche, you were going to get 30 or 40% of it and that equates to $50,000 a year, you might be like, "I don't know if I want to do all this for 50 grand." Or you might be like, "Holy [ __ ] like this is great." Like if you're a kid in a neighborhood and your total addressable market are the people with lawns that don't already have a gardener, but you can make, you know, whatever, 300 bucks a weekend, you might be like, "That's fantastic.

I'm not even going to consider something like that because 300 bucks [ __ ] that. I You know what I mean? I'm better off just going and thinking about something else to make a lot more else to make a lot more money. So, yeah. Period. That was good. If he had a follow-up or whatever, by all means hit me. I'd love talking about business stuff. Uh as I really think this generation, you guys right now, have it It has never been easier to build a business. I think that more businesses are going to be built.

We It looks like we actually have had now the first billion-dollar revenue business built by one person. He's on schedule. He did, I forget, like $420 million million million in uh '25 using AI. It's just him. And uh they're saying he's on track to do over a billion dollars in revenue uh in '26. One person, that's wild. So there's these huge opportunities right now. All right. More. right. More. right. More. The wandering wizard says, you talk about the unmoved mover and simulation theory. If we're in a simulation, maybe the layers are accessible.

Some physicists theorize black holes don't crush to nothing but bounce into new realities. Yeah, that's really interesting and I really want that to be true. But the problem is that even if this is a simulation, it has deterministic rules. And so it seems like that um matter gets torn apart into information as it passes through a black hole. So I don't think that we survive it, whether we're um information ourselves that you don't just go through and you're fine. Now, I guess it's possible that they could be like teleportation things where you're torn apart into information and then reconfigured on the other side.

Um we don't know is the only honest answer. Um but yeah, I have a feeling that just like with a video game, you you just run into hard rules. And so while it may be possible, like if the game were coded in a totally different way, that you could do other things, our simulation has code, if this is simulation, that works in very deterministic ways. Um so yeah. Period. Next up, Truth Devon. Please, Tom, interview Ron Paul. He's really old. I feel like you would love his views.

He will get views. He's really old. That part I like. That was the pitch. Don't worry, Tom. He's old. He's really old. old. old. like you. You're going to enjoy You guys have so much in common. He's old. turned 50 and they turn on you, Tom. See how they do you? That fast. That fast. They're trying to be sweet. Like people start talking more slowly to me. Tom, you should interview Ron Paul. They've got keys. Jingle jingle jingle. Uh but then he rounded it out saying, Ron made me fall in love with libertarianism.

All the things you say he's been saying for 40 years. He's you in the future. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Listen, facts. facts. facts. Credit where credit is due. I would interview him in a heartbeat. So, fingers crossed. And to round out the super chats, Christopher Graf with an 11 111. I couldn't say that. Let's go. Happy Friday to you, sir. [cheering] [cheering] [cheering] Christopher says, "Tom, you helped inspire me. I'm 50 building something to outlast me, a regenerative farm plus premium rentals plus mindset experience. Given US economic uncertainty, any suggestions or what's the one risk that will kill this?

I'll build around your answer." Okay, so the this goes back to the idea of product market fit. You've got three things together that may not go together in the customer's mind. Do not move off this just so I can make sure I can look at it. So, regenerative farming, I think that's going to be massive. So, I think you really have something there. We've got a topsoil problem, all of that. Assuming that you actually have people that are buying your products or you're self-sustaining, that that one feels good to me.

Where things are going, I think that that's going to be a thing. It's going to be small though. That's the only catch. Even farms that are like scaled to the max, it's just not a ton of money in farming. So, from a business perspective, maybe not the greatest business ever. Premium rentals depends on what you're renting, don't know about that. But there could be a good business for a while depending on how you're getting people to come to you. It's that's already going to limit your market unless these are I'm assuming the premium rentals are somehow tied to the regenerative farming.

So, your total addressable market's going to be people that can get to you physically. And the people that need that thing that you're renting. So, that again just feels a little bit small. But if you're fine with that, if you've run the math and you're looking at it and it's like, "Okay, I can generate let's say that you only need to peel off 7% of the local area market. If the next If the number one person in your space, let's say, has 40% and you only need 7% for this to be interesting, you really might have something there.

And if it does, let's say you pocket Let's say you do revenue of 750 grand a year, okay? Small potatoes. But if you're doing that and you're pocketing, let's say, 270 grand in profit, okay. Like if that is exciting for you, then we really might have a business. But the key thing and the mindset thing is what strikes me as the most bizarre. Um but if it's like, "We teach kids mindset principles through regenerative farming or something like that." Maybe parents right now want to do it, I don't know.

know. know. But again, I think that's going to be super super niche. So, what I would advise that you do is build out a financial model. financial model. financial model. I'm going to speed run a financial model for you. for you. for you. Financial model, the way that I use it is you're building out every beat along the way of what you do, what what thing you actually do to make somebody aware that your product or service exists. You then work them through your funnel. And then at the end of the funnel, you make a certain amount of money including lifetime value, all that.

So, every beat, every step in that process, you map out to a cell in a spreadsheet. You start with assumptions and then move to actuals as you get that data. So, in the beginning, these are all going to be assumptions. But make the assumptions, put it together, work with Claude or ChatGPT to check your assumptions cuz it'll have data across a lot of this stuff stuff stuff and be able to say that what you've put in there is way above industry standard or it's below or whatever.

Map all that out and then just go how much money am I going to make? So, what do things cost? What do I get back? What are all the steps? steps? steps? And yeah, that will give you a very good idea of what this is going to look like. But if you don't force yourself to put it on paper like that, put it into a spreadsheet, spreadsheet, spreadsheet, then emotions will make dots feel like they they they [clears throat] [clears throat] [clears throat] that they connect.

[cough] [cough] [cough] Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. I was like one sentence from the end, dude. Almost there. They're [clears throat] going to make dots feel like they connect. They don't actually connect. So, be very very careful of that. That's how people always get themselves into trouble. Okay, cool. A buzzer beater super chat, actually. Let's go. $50. Let's go. And by the way, Eric, can we start doing three bottles of water, please? please? please? Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Tom, I have not been able to watch the show today because Ooh.

I Yes. I Yes. I Yes. Because I am prepping for a meeting with two huge banking officials based on a book I wrote because of your interview with Robert Breedlove and your conversations with Dalio. Caged equity. That's awesome, man. Cheers. And by the way, thanks for the 50 bucks to tell us that we're doing something awesome. Good luck on the meeting. You're going to kill it. Breaking news. everything about that energy. Yeah, he's going to kill it. That's a good That's exciting. I'm sharing on my personal.

Iranian media is reporting that the US pilot is in custody. It was from like Iranianmedia. like underscore. So, grain of salt, but we grain of salt, but we will update you guys on Monday if we hear anything. hear anything. hear anything. Is it just the one cuz there were two I think in the plane? Yeah, it said US pilot, singular. So, I am not sure about that. So, we shall look out for it. But yep, that's it. Happy Good Fridays, everybody. Happy Easter Sunday. Zero to Founder AI Masterclass Thursday, April 9th at 1:00 p.m.

I hope you guys will join me. Super free. It's a very popular class. You'll learn how to use AI to build a business. Free, free, free. All right, guys. Love you guys so much. Have a wonderful weekend. Happy Good Friday. And we'll see you on Monday. Peace.