How to Spot 10-Year Trends and Build Billion-Dollar Companies — Kevin Ryan

Key Takeaway

Create a “10-year trend board” today: list 20 changes you believe will still be growing a decade from now, then ask what new products, behaviors, suppliers, and bottlenecks each change creates. Do not stop at the obvious winner; look for second-order opportunities—the picks, shovels, infrastructure, or specialized workflows the trend requires. Revisit the list for two weeks. If an idea keeps expanding in your mind and you can name a great product leader, investigate it further.

Episode Overview

Kevin Ryan explains how he evaluates durable trends, builds companies around them, and avoids mistaking short-lived excitement for a decade-long opportunity. Drawing on DoubleClick, Gilt, Business Insider, MongoDB, and Transcend Therapeutics, he discusses fast decisions, narrow initial focus, product obsession, recruiting, deep-tech investing, and the societal implications of AI and inequality.

Full Transcript

Transcript of How to Spot 10-Year Trends and Build Billion-Dollar Companies — Kevin Ryan from The Tim Ferriss Show. Auto-generated from episode audio; may contain minor errors.

I'll start with the business side. love, that is I have an idea, but I can't. stop talking about her think. And then, through week, I still I think about her. And now I think, "Oh my God, this it would be good, and we could do it, and we could invite this person." And this just growing in my head, and I intellectually I'm falling in love with my idea. . And if this stays with me for about 2 weeks, I usually do that. Kevin, thank you for that.

found time. Yes It's nice to see you. Glad to be here. So I just wanted to give people a scan landscape at an altitude of 30 000 feet, that is, at your second chronology. So this is was prepared robots. So no believe everything you read, but let's just consider some basics. I am not I am going to spend too much time, but, please allow me for a second. Therefore, in 1985 he Graduates from Yale university, I think, it was the economy. Starting his career at Prudential Investment Corp.

Okay, New York and London. 1990, receives master's degree business administration in INSEAD. Later he worked in Euro Disney in France, then to United Media. We still let's go back to all of this. 1995 helps to start blank website. I I leave him. empty is not just Yes. We still Let's get back to this. And then, after that, DoubleClick, right from it, if people take you interview, I know, that you are not very much you work in the media, but in the few that I I saw it, it's from this many are starting people.

Hmm. We won't start with that. Then continues DoubleClick, sold for 1.1 billion, Ryan is leaving retired, 2007 founded AlleyCorp. We we are going to spend a lot of time on AlleyCorp. Co-founder of Gilt Groupe, Business Insider, 10gen, later renamed to MongoDB , then there is co-founder of Zola, companies with wedding registration, and Nomad Health in 2015, trading platform which unites clinicians with temporary work in security industry health. I am trying. to give people an idea about the breadth of industries. 2015: Axel Springer gains control over Business Insider.

There are some numbers, but who knows, 442 millions, something like that something like that. Hudson's Bay buys Gilt Groupe for declared amount 250 million dollars for agreement. MongoDB in 2017 goes public on the NASDAQ exchange 10 years after of its founding. I I know what's behind this. many stories. In 2021 year we seem to met or had dinner next to each other one in about 2 years before that. It becomes co-founder Transcend Therapeutics, which develops new drugs for treatment mental diseases. We necessarily Let's talk about it.

IN In 2023 he passes on skis 101 km to South Pole. So this stands out as exception. Then, in June 2026, Otsuka completes the acquisition Transcend for 700 million dollars upfront plus up to 525 million dollars depending on future sales. IN July 2026 Allycorp announces creating a second one fund worth 335 millions of dollars, aimed at support for companies in the early stages. I I think you too you do a lot deeper technological investing. It crazy biography, Kevin. And there are so many reasons why I wanted to chat with you and learn from you, and I wanted to start ...We'll get there eventually.

to things like recruiting and searching talents, but I wanted to talk about trends and peeking into crystal ball, peeking into future. So, I I read that you sometimes do an exercise with list of trends on blackboard, right? Name 20 trends. And I I'm going to go for a bit. to read. This is from foundersjourney.org. So, one from the exercises I do, - this is counting 20 ideas on the trend board , which, in my opinion, will exist for 10 years, and then what are the consequences of does this follow?

AND you can consider social trends, healthy eating, automation in restaurants, gigs economy. And right here, in my opinion, I I'm skipping steps. Therefore , first I understand the first part. You you ask: "If I I bet that's it. will last 20 years, the market will grow 5 times ". He asks: "What there will be such a thing, what does not exist today?" So sometimes I'm skipping this one. second step. But, maybe you could just tell me, how are you considering trends and find opportunities in these trends?

AND I think it's 10. years are important, not one or two years. But Could you please? talk about it? Yes, first of all, 10 years important because, unfortunately, to build an important the company cannot be two or three years. It really takes 10 years . Therefore, it is necessary to bet on long-term trend. So, if this is something that today fashionable, and it will be done in two years or five started years ago, you already were late. Hmm. And it is very difficult. I many times was wrong.

But sometimes You are wrong. So Double Click was an online advertising that had to be very important. AND this trend we absolutely correct understood. Unstructured data in the databases were [ __ ] , and it was a 20-year-old trend. Psychedelics were very important trend. I firmly convinced that this, you know, it will be significant for mental health, and that we already five years in a row we stick to this 10- annual trend. Mmm. Nuclear energy— this is what we are for made a bet, very a significant bet, two of half a year ago, and we are incredible company, economy creators—this is what we made a bet a few years ago, and we have there extremely successful company.

This trend continues. There is also other trends, and more precisely, value- targeted assistance —this is a trend. What does this mean? Value-oriented Help is a way, which government structured like this in a way that you can to contact several hospitals or medical practices and find ways to them to reduce their costs. Mmm. Often concentrating on a certain specialization, and if you reduce their expenses, then you can to share the savings. Mmm. And so we have several companies. And sometimes there is trends and I can't come up with the right one way to get from them benefit or the right product.

Longevity and this The focus has not yet been brought to the correct one decision. I have conference under called Doc, which will take place in the valley Napa in October, dedicated longevity and science. This is in order to learn more. But I don't have an idea yet. product from this reason. Why are you conducting measures? Are these measures mainly by search opportunities and talents? I understand. that education is the foundation for both of these two, but what was the impetus for such an event? Yes, I already have it.

four, and some of them related to mine business. So, "deep tech" New York" is 450 people who are talking about the most fundamental deep trends technologies that are happening. Materials science, things like that. Then in I have a conference with digital security health in New York, which will take place next week. Then Doc, and another one, which is called " "Odyssey", it's just ideas. This is less commercially and simply collects 100 very smart people. And I I see this as more intellectual food. Hmm. I don't think of it as about the immediate, you know, creation business.

If I I will meet fascinating people. people in different industries, will happen good things. Some of they can be focused on business. Hmm. And some may be No. Maybe you are pulling 100-pounders behind me sleigh. Yes. Yes. In Antarctica. Yes, no, I lead 20 people within the framework of the Odyssey to China in a month, and the topic is, What China does better ? Hmm. There are things that they they do worse, but there are things that they They do better. There are definitely things, what they do better.

And I haven't been there in a long time. I I don't drive much. business in China, so I just felt that I need this. to see, so I take with you on this trip venture capital managers companies, a bunch of interesting people. You know, we took 16 people on skiing off-piste, to places in Val d'Isere. Exciting conversations during the day. I am going to take 30 people to Switzerland on foot next hike May. Every time I I surround myself with wonderful people. people, and we are good we structure so that these conversations took place, Hmm.

then I will get from This is very useful. Okay, I planned it, but plans change, when the conversation comes about early sections, and I want early chapters. Yes. But before we get there we'll get there, I remember, as I sat next to you in Portugal, like once upon a time in 2019, and the first thing I'm talking about thought, it was: "God My, what is this guy doing? is engaged for "Do I have to exercise?" meaning that you, It seems you are busy. sports, except yours genetics are not like Usain Bolt or something like this.

Fitness, movement, physical exercise is very seriously. Yes. And we, probably, a little we will consider later, What does this mode look like? . But when you you organize these trips, then I I organize several trips per year for friends. What duration of trips? IN case, let's say, hiking, off-piste descent , need to check some points, first than someone will be ready for an avalanche etc. In case of hiking, how are you? Are you thinking of forming? group? What is the duration? trips? What's included before its creation?

So, hiking lasts three to four days . It will probably be 30 people. Hmm. And my structure, probably will be 4- an hour's hike. So, with 8:00 to 12:00, which is quite a long hike. It could be longer, but four, maybe five . And then, after lunch, in We will have sessions. So, someone will talk about climate change. Will be someone who will speak about, yes, nuclear energy or something other than that, in our opinion opinion, interesting, or, you know, about consciousness. Hmm. So you must to feel that received a wonderful content.

You met with other people. You had great conversations. And then at dinner a lot of this came together. AND, I hope you will go. from there, knowing 20 of these people who were selected. Hmm. Because they come from from different walks of life, but are engaged something very interesting. So, out of 30, does that mean that you will have something on like 10, which eventually- will finally stand up to to speak? Yes. And at dinner it's like structured? AND the reason I ask is is that can be unstructured measures.

Hmm. One of the characteristics dialogue, which I really liked it beginning. When he became larger, he has changed. Yes. I also don't realized that he was in secret Peter's company Tilya, when is this? appeared in the media. Who would could you think? In any in any case, on beginning, I remember, in they were very small tables, four or five people, and at each table there was one question, and someone had to take over himself responsibility for effective execution the role of moderator. AND were often prescribed places to to guarantee that you you will have access to different people, and I I thought it was real.

amazing way squeeze a lot out of several days. But in in this case, if it is unstructured, what do you think about seating and grouping of people, or wrong? Because if it's just one long one thing, like in "Red" wedding" in "Game thrones", then if someone at one end , and someone on on the contrary, they are not necessarily will interact, or wrong? This is for Jefferson or something like " No, at 30 it is too much to to have one conversation." Hmm. So, usually I would made it so that the first two evenings would be seated so that people could be different behave, and maybe , last evening there would be no such thing opportunities.

Then you you can say, you know, the person with whom I really want to to chat, this Here she is. And you have to be such a possibility with someone you are with spent some time. On my bike I go to every year. on a bike, where we just a classic 4 days, We go to the mountains a lot. Last year we were in the Douro Valley in Portugal, perhaps in Italy, something like that. There are only eight of us, and every person has a theme that day, one of There will be 20 meals.

a minute's conversation, which you will lead. AND this may vary from the very beginning, when we talked about cryptocurrency when it it wasn't that obvious. A good topic when you were relatively wealthy like you dispose of money with their own children? Always a difficult question, and in We were all children. So, a wide range topic. Regarding trends, I personally remember for example, somewhere in In 2008-2009 I met To you, who was still there then general CEO of Shopify. And in there were 10 of them employees, something like this.

I really like it. lucky me, I became Shopify's first advisor. But part of the reason is, why did I decide this to do is to because I thought: " Okay, 1 year, 2 years, Who knows. But will it be in 10 years more people online? Will there be more electronic commerce? I think that it is an obvious choice . Toby and his team , Harley and all the others, were also very focused on, to be pioneers in mobile business. AND I thought, "Well, okay, will there be more mobile phones, more broadband access?

I have on I mean, of course, this , seems obvious. And therefore, probably, someone probably gains significant part of this market. Of course, why not? Try it, right? And in these random meetings very depends on luck. But it seems to me that over time you will probably developed more complex or multidimensional a look at trends. So, if you are you accepting company? out of the office, and she imagines where they will be different industries in 10 years, can you to tell about common traps or mistakes that people make do during extrapolations trends or prognostication?

Is there some extra questions or frameworks, what are you use to to focus on for some reason, what could be opportunity, or disqualify something shiny, but actually there is suicide mission? Well, one of them, and again well, if it were stereotypically, we would all do this did, and that would be light. So there is definitely some intuition and intuition, some guesses. But I I always think about that. what, let's imagine, Shopify works very good. Hmm. Who else works with them? and supplies them? Hmm. So it's secondary.

task. Hmm. So let's Let's think about it. You know, people who provide centers data processing with picks and shovels, They work very well. That's right. And how behavior changes ? Do you know what this is? means? Sometimes it is leads to that people stop do it and do it more than that. Can you please provide example of this? Well, I'll give you one. example of the second order: we sat down in 2003 year and not quite that did, and thought, what is the price of the pass ability falls, and she is falling.

Reason, why wasn't there in 2003 video, is that what accommodation content cost about 10 dollars for a thousand, and you could get close dollars on advertising. So this model is not works. But we looked at trend and thought, you know, until 2005, 2006 years old they were to cross, and we should have been created YouTube, but we don't did, and it's not coincidentally, that YouTube started in 2005, and then defeated its. And this was the second one the order that led to the company that today it costs 300 billions of dollars.

This is a good purchase. Incredible. Incredible acquisition . So, I won't. to delve into this, but I think it's...well, first of all, I am very fascinating. If we let's see, for example, on Gilt Group, Yes? And maybe you could briefly describe what it was like. Why don't we start with this? Very briefly. What did Gilt do? This is both good and bad. news. So, it was unusual story, I spent a lot of time in France. I have French passport. He is French. AND all in France in 2006 year, Vente Privée knew that was actually Gilt of France.

And they received a billion dollars of income thanks to this concepts lightning sales, where during the day at a certain time they have a moment goods were sold high class with discount. Therefore, equivalent to, if you had time go on sale samples you have no. And I remember how passed by sample sale in New York, and there was 200, mostly women, in in line, and I remember that I thought, you know, a person who lives in Philadelphia or Austin, you don't have sample sales. This is really new- York brands.

And there is many people who would like to be in this row. Hmm. And these guys understood it. So I started. It became a phenomenon. So, for the second year we received 175 million dollars of income that just madness. It goods. You must buy it, to pack, sell and return, these are the ones things. And we did it. incredible work with providing this. And so, for the fourth year we received 500 dollars income. And that was it. quite a long. And then the problem was because, because happens, the market changed to us.

Right. This is it the part I'm talking about I want to ask. Okay, yes. And that's what happened when we started, let's go let's use Marc Jacobs. Marc Jacobs didn't have a website. site in 2008, 2009. Because they sold by Bloomingdale's and to such people. They were wholesale traders. Why should they? website? They got a website. They started to sell yours own goods from discounts. You filled this gap, completely filled it. And on that time at Macy's was terrible website. They, at least, brought him to mediocre until 2011, 2012.

AND others opened department stores, then Farfetch appeared. So suddenly I'm competing with many people for this product. He is a little commercialized, and we could not find way to get around this. So this is letting me down. to the question, because have to ask shots on goal, and sometimes competitive environment or evolution competitive environment is difficult understand, but whether influenced by this experience with Gilt on how you imagine long-term capitalization on trends? Others in words like you use this window, but avoid displacement, when in you are 10 other people, who actually do the same.

Yes, and this goes back to that, Do you have a moat? And we tried to become large enough, so that we could have this moat. Hmm. And we had to become quite large, but not big enough . I mean, I once talked to Theory , and they had 20,000 goods at the end season for sale. I could buy a thousand. Hmm. Okay, but that's not it. will move from place to them. So I just don't completely successful, to influence the market . It's hard to know for sure, how big are you You will become, how quickly, how successful you will be above your own suppliers.

AND Well, we're almost there. goals, but did not this. And one of the lessons , you know, I went to boards of directors and said: "I think we should be sold company". Hmm. And everyone said, "Well, we cost a billion dollars. We thought that we can sell it for 400. This is disappointing.” But I said, "We have "Here is a falling knife." AND here we are, and received only 250 millions of dollars. Saks came and paid for her. And after 3 years they said: "I I will sell it back to you.

for 5 million." Oho. Better late than never never. That's right. It wasn't big sale, but he was much better than I could to be, because I I just didn't like it. Where is everything going? AND The conclusion is that I not really touched the electronic commerce. Mmm. Since that time. Too mature. It's decided. Startups must decide problem. Even if you don't realize, that the problem exists, when you see her, you you think: "Oh yeah, that's exactly the problem that I had it." And now I can, that is, I can to deliver anything home in about 27 seconds.

I can return it. It inexpensively. So I don't I know how to do it. better. Mmm. IN I don't have any. ideas. I mean, that in many others industries such as cancer treatment, nuclear energy, psychedelics, there are things, which are needed create, but what else were not created, that will significantly improve world. Let's return a while ago, as I promised listeners earlier. Therefore , we will move on to startup assistance empty website. Before that, we have Yale Economics, Prudential Investment Corp. Investment banking. Investment banking, INSEAD, Euro Disney.

Was there anything you learned or developed in these in the sections that follow helped you when you have moved to United Media ? Is there anything decisive? or critical? The main thing is that I was quite financially oriented and very comfortable yourself I felt it, but I didn't really liked it work with numbers and understand fundamental business trends, and this is part of the business and life. So all this was a business, and then I wanted, I wanted finances, and then go to operating room activities at Disney.

So we had to manage hotels, and it was exciting project. We launched Euro Disney, you know, 15,000 hotel rooms, 50 000 people every day. Launching a huge project was one day. So I learned a lot about this, but decided, that I don't want anymore to work in large companies. So I thought it was necessary a lot of learning. It it was incredible pleasantly. Then I wanted to come back to New York. I got a job financial department director United Media from 180 employees. For It was great for me.

work. I managed 50 people. I was in charge. all operations and finances. And it was turning point. Earned a lot more money. For it was me huge step forward. Now I was financial director and operational director. What am I doing here? leave? I still remember how read an article in Business Week, which was about a thing, which I didn't know about, but specifically about the internet. Maybe you've heard of him. And I remember how I read this and thought, "Oh God, this is incredible. cool". For example, we we can all be on communication with each other.

We can send each other message. We could buy things. And remember that then there was no browser. So until 1995 I launched Dilbert because we owned a large quantity intellectual property, and one of One of them was Dilbert. And that's why I launched a website Dilbert, who became extremely successful . And the reason was because there were many technical specialists, which could use internet without browser. And that's why we have was huge traffic. I started sell advertising, which was harsh coded advertising just there. IBM was the first person They took it for 2 weeks.

I immediately came up with price. I mean, how can i install the price of something, what literally never existed? We were doing their own thing merchandising. So we started selling T-shirts, ties and things like that. And so, a year later we had very successful business. I went to maternal company and said: " This internet thing will be big. And we have there is a handicap. So why would you don't let me...I thought as loyal corporate citizen. Give I have a couple of million dollars, and I will create Internet department.

We could do this. for other companies." And the most unpleasant thing is, that the guy I'm with talked, was very pleasant, intelligent, a guy from traditional media. AND he said, "No, that's why what will we be waiting for the next internet. What does this mean? What is it does it mean at all? I am not I know. First, I know, what you don't know about What are you saying? The next internet will not be. AND The most unpleasant thing is that I remember thinking : “You are just too old for this." Hmm.

And he was right. the same number of years, how much do I need today. 61 or 62. And he was very successful leader, and not yet understood that happens in that moment. So I arrived. the conclusion that it is not mine future. And in this I I believe in my thesis. I thought it might be yes, and it turned out truth. It was a feeling, or you tracked numbers outside of traffic? What prompted you to such a belief? IN that time if you were sometime in '96, it was only at the beginning, but began to flourish.

Companies started work, more and more people were online, no one came out offline, they started buying things, they started use cards. You could just to see how it is works. Things we we perceive as due now, when you can buy something from anywhere, view content from anywhere, which never existed. Hmm. And now I saw it, and I thought: this obvious choice. All in the world will be this engage in. So, I I think you had meaning that electronic Will commerce grow? Yes, it will grow. She simply better.

It was something like that that this is not yet It's over. And that's why I said I was going to go and establish Internet company. I met...Maybe on At that moment the world was very tiny. People in Silicon Valley wanted to invite me to the existing ones companies such as, I I don't know if you remember. You are Excite. Of course. Uh, a bunch of those companies. I drove past them on Highway 101. Yes. And at that moment in I had a year of experience. work on the Internet, what made me one of the most experienced people at that time.

So people were very happy, that I will join and I will do something. And then I came across two guys who founded DoubleClick six months ago. AND which were very smart, very technical. And I have wonderful things happened relationship with both of them . And they said, "Why I wish you wouldn't join. to us?" And I wanted to stay in New York York. I thought that was it. will be successful company, so I joined. I was 10th. or the 12th person. Hmm. And then I started on a few months ago financial director, became president, and then became general director.

What do you think? contributed to this ascending to office general director? Which skills or something else Did this contribute to it? I felt founder. Technically I am not, but I felt like this. So I just was a team player player and wanted to make this company successful, and I extremely fast adapted to decision-making very, very quickly. Hmm. You must take solution faster than other people. Because, If I wait, then for example, we opened offices in 25 countries for the first 3 years. And ours competitors were only at six.

And when I went to Microsoft or Procter&Gamble, they said : "We do business in in many countries. To us need to cooperate with you ". And then, when you all they received, smaller The players said, "Well, Procter&Gamble and Microsoft, and everyone else works with you, so we will to cooperate with you ". So we are almost dominated our spacious, and I think that I adapted to quick acceptance solutions, understanding numbers, readiness risk. Hmm. We have been to 20 countries, before our first the country became profitable.

As if if it never happened worked, you would asked: "What are you did? Yes. And we did a few mistakes on this way, but overall we created a world leader. DoubleClick today as independent company would cost a hundred billions. So I want to talk. about this. Not exactly about parachute creation on the way down, and about AlleyCorp model, say yes, especially in the first several years, because I I hesitate to call it that. incubator, because it in many ways is different. On unlike, say, Y Combinator, it's not a bunch people who come with their own ideas that you choose, then take a tiny one percentage for tiny the amount of money and teach them how to spend demonstration day .

This is not what you are you doing? No. As far as I understand, at the beginning you and your partner invested approximately 500 thousand dollars each each in each company. Mmm. Acting as co-founders. Yes. Right? Created each about six months as proof concepts, and then set out to attract venture capital. It fair description? Maybe a year. A year, okay. But we really created a product, launched in general product... Mmm... and then they started to collect money. So we really focused on these companies, and we did three, and then another batch of three.

So overall we made six. Three of them were extremely successful. Gilt, Business Insider and [ __ ]. After the creation of AlleyCorp when they were founded? All between 2005 and 2008 . And the last three were started in one year. At that time you worked on eight companies for a year, did it happen later? Lot later. Because there were only two of us, and my then partner, he is now on pensions, but Dwight Merriman is one of the most brilliant technical minds, which we saw. So he is actually a brain DoubleClick technologies and [ __ ] along with another one a person.

And so the way we had it great partnership, where is he really did everything technical. I even didn't worry about it. And then everything that was about business, search for general director, you are building and collect money, such things. I focused on this. It seems you have a series of incredible strengths, and I I am sure that they more, but there is also trend identification and opportunities. THERE ARE talent recruitment. Capital formation, ability to attract money. Right? IN in some cases a lot of money. Depending.

And how are you? mentioned DoubleClick, isn't that right? Coverage 25 countries to the first is profitable, because, when a larger company wants to cooperate with you, she will want have a global influence. And you attract capital required to achieve this critical mass, exit speed, choose yours metaphor. And me too I wonder what you think about it. think when it comes to , let's say about the first three to five years Alleycorp, when did you start companies. And some of them, obviously, took more time. MongoDB, I think, stands out as an example of this.

But, say, from Business Insider, isn't that right? I listened. the interview you gave To Sam Parr and Sean Perry, and you mentioned, What do you have first? there were a handful of people, who were involved in everything. Yes. And we could to talk about problem and the gap that this decided, but for now, I think it's worth it. to devote to this a little time. Therefore, at first you had a handful of journalists, who were involved in everything. No, they were engaged only New York technologies.

Okay, they are are engaged in new- York technologies, but It is very important to start with narrow area. So, they were engaged New York technologies, and then at some point, I I think so, don't you? They were scattered, but then, as soon as you received traffic, this allowed you hire more, and you could gradually to raise it like this in a way that, I think, many people would hesitate. But, Ultimately, this allowed you dominate in this space. Yes. AND I don't say that very much. eloquently, therefore, maybe you could explain.

I just I wonder how this type thinking manifests itself in others companies that you create. Both Gilt and Business Insider, though These are very different businesses. , we did the same, and exactly what Gilt started with one sale women's clothing on week. Hmm. And then we moved on to two, then three, and then five. And then, maybe in a year added male, then children's, then travel, and then home. And at Business Insider we we start because it's better to do one thing very good, Mmm... than bad to do everything work.

So we started only three people, so we covered only technological sector of New York. Mhm. It wasn't that bad. many. Yes. But we are fine. worked hard. And then expanded and had vertical on the wall street Mhm. And then they added more one vertical, a then when we added more people, they added vertical, after all defense, Mmm... retail trade, such things. And then in At some point they reached up to 600 journalists. Mhm. And they did a great job. Approximately when we sold later, we have there were six people who covered the defense .

Mhm. This is great. illumination. When you and Dwight invested the first a million dollars, splitting 50/50, You probably take it, I I don't know, 30 or so. percent of the company, something like that. One more day, and then it is diluted. That's right. Are you planning? this is a dilution of later increase . At the beginning, let's call it's just a period of 2005 to 2008, how are you? managed to force very, very intelligent, capable people to quit one's job and come, hmm... to manage these companies?

And they must believe that idea is great. They must believe that we we add value that there is something here, and what are we must do this together. And this is the only thing that they must believe, and then we can give them help. And here we are just sold company in New York, which was the most valuable startup, when- something created on that time. So we had authority, and they thought that we we will involve you to to raise money and help you with this make.

And we are done. And we are capable to do it. So, this is there was an offer. But, you know, Henry Blodgett —a perfect example, Business Insider. He is incredible. talent. IN at that time he had ambiguous reputation because of what happened on Wall- street years earlier. But he was wonderful. writer. Just for clarity, he essentially said that something is uncomfortable for him, which was standard practice, right? It was his sin. Yes. No, I actually I support what he said and did. But he joined, I I knew him a little, but invited him, and in 30 minutes he said: "This is wonderful idea.

We must do this. make". What did it look like? presentation? It's that simple, you don't Believe me. There was no no business site news, whatever it may be online by nature . And at that time Wall Street Journal and Business Week are not updated their sites during the day. Yes. Had to wait on the newspaper. And therefore everything we did, and we, perhaps, not the only ones, but we were among the first, are standard today . That is, we published several stories as they come creation, received more information, had bright headlines, hmm.

tested our headlines, hmm. So people just hard to switch between different means mass media. So Businessweek doesn't is concerned a headline in a magazine, isn't that right? Will it give good title to them more income? It doesn't matter. IN the internet has value, but they don't care article titles. So we tried four headings that it was incredible innovatively on that time, 5 minutes each, hmm. And then they looked: oh, this one has better success. Let's use that. So all these things today absolutely standard. And Henry was very good.

I I mean, he incredibly talented, and we got Peter Kafka, some people, which are still very significant journalists, we received them on the beginning of their careers. But this It took a lot of time. I mean, this It took years. But, on luckily, we had huge growth. In addition, it was difficult to raise money for this. Our strategy was that we never we will deal with marketing. By the way, you have never seen Business Insider ads. We we are going to write so good things that ultimately we have will be 100 million unique views.

Hmm. And everyone said, "This is not strategy. I hope this is not strategy. Right ". And that's exactly what happened. Yes. Good. How many do you have? you are now full-time employees in Alleycorp? 23, 24. Okay, not yet. gigantic. No. Good. If to go back to the past, when you and Dwight and, maybe one more or two people like you performed an analysis opportunities to decide that you are you going to launch ? For example, how do you conducted stress- testing what it seemed... Yes. No, we were just the two of us.

Okay, great. Therefore, How did you choose that? do? Literally simple were sitting in a conference room hall, pondered ideas, talked about it, thought about it. Sometimes we for months worked and nothing had. Hmm. And then you just must trust in a certain moment that You know that everything will be like this. just in case you met someone who is lonely and who is he dating? , and said: "Where did you come from?" I want to know what this is. man?" Yes. It is to be hoped that you know when you know.

What is this feeling like? some of these ideas or any others, but preferably with early ones examples? What is this? feeling? I recognize this because I'm starting with business. love. That is, there is idea, and I can't stop talking about her think. And then, through week, I still I think about her. Mmm. And now I think: " Oh God, that would be okay, and we could do that do, and we could invite this person." And it just keeps growing. in my head, and I I'm falling in love with my idea.

. Mmm. Intellectually. AND if it remains with me for about 2 weeks, I usually do this I do. Mmm. As if I really don't I spend more on it. time. I know if I feel it and I see it. Because it makes no sense. to do business model. I have on mind, who knows, how many people will there be watch Business Insider. If you don't You know, you know nothing. you know. Question in so will people read your business news online? Or can we work better than the famous ones players?

And can we do it differently? Do we have a vision? about this? On start me need someone who will focus on product. I don't need a financier. I don't need it. marketing. Me need a great one product. And Business Insider was wonderful product, so we reached 100 million. And Gilt was great product. Business Insider was also in in a sense in your sandboxes, because, probably, he depends on advertising, isn't that right? So, how are you? knew that as soon as you will have an eye, you you will be able to...

Yes, but this business development... It's harder to get an eye, than to sell advertising. Of course. You know, if I give you 100 million unique customers, you just go there, are you hiring a guy? sell advertising, and he will sell it. Getting 100 millions of unique customers are 90%95% work. At what stage process, you know what? I definitely know the person in Union Square Ventures or, as in me, the benevolent one venture capitalist , who would be delighted from this idea, if we could show confirmation concepts.

Yes, no, I don't think so. . I think, and I always do. I'm wrong. Sometimes I I think this person you'll like it. But how to do it: when we we are raising money, we we turn to 20, 25 firms. And half cases a person who, I thought I wanted this. I didn't want to do it. to do this for some reason. And someone else? fell in love with this idea. So I don't plan on it. in advance. I always shocked. Yes. Fundraising —this is a situation where we We'll figure it out later.

This also applies to that I never I'm thinking about leaving. To us need to focus on product. Do we have a product that everyone want use? If you decide this, everything else will follow. You can collect money, you can hire people, you You can do everything. When you guys and I I'm going wrong. to pronounce it, invested in Valor Atomic? Is this Valor? Valor Valor Valor Yes. I know I had 50/50 chance. This is valor. When you guys invested? In nuclear energy? That's right. Three years ago.

Not even three years ago. Good. So, this is small modular nuclear reactor. That's right. Therefore, nuclear reactor next generation . How are you doing? Did you come? Because, you know, nuclear energy, pun intended deliberate, hot. She wasn't hot. She wasn't. No. Because thermonuclear synthesis was on fire. I I mean, you have were Commonwealth Fusion Systems in MIT, and you had Sam Altman, who involved their SPVs. I'm curious, How did you decide on these? investments. Yes, and it arrived. directly from my team deep technologies. So these weren't mine.

relationship. But we just thinking how always, what is incredible team, idea, and that they are good it is being implemented. Three years ago she was estimated at 20 million dollars. They just attracted 6 billion, about what publicly announced at Sequoia. Yes. And they destroy it. We were lucky that The US government at that time did not supported nuclear energy. Hmm. And I don't always most fan Trump administration , but regarding psychedelics and nuclear energy, I I think they have right on both counts , and they are significantly pushed them forward.

Yes, I hope so. you will talk to some nuclear scientists, when you are in China, because they destroy energy production. Yes. By the way, most people know that France should receive 70% of your energy for 50 years with nuclear energy. Hmm. Absolutely none problems. A wonderful thing, stable. I convinced that this must be important part of our energy of the future. You guys, when attract or as portfolio companies companies attract money, I mean, that this is a crazy markup, isn't that right? I have on mean that simply amazing markup.

Is Ali Corp strategically takes money off the table in these big rounds along the way, do you guys just leave them and Are you waiting until the end? As are you thinking about deal with this? So, we did it. once so far. And in I personally have been would remove part money from the table, especially money that supported by QSBS, which might make sense. This is a release for small business from taxation for people who listen under any asset restrictions, isn't that right? You get 10 million dollars without paying taxes, so it's worth doing .

But in general now we we think this is good idea for smaller a foundation like ours, during rounds 4-5 years to sell a third of our positions. So during next year we we will be in a certain way hedge risks, and we will go to the market, even if we are fine we feel about these companies. But, I think , that's a smart thing to do. It returns part money for everyone. It returns part money to the team. Hmm. And, you know, some of them will be very successful, some not.

So, I think it's good. idea. What does your base look like? LP? It is very small. I the greatest LP, and then we have mostly family offices and some institutions, some small endowments. So, we have, perhaps, 40 or 50 long-term investment funds . I mean, you have impressive record list. And the second fund, Correct me if I am. I am wrong, or Correct me if Astra number is wrong . July 2026, second fund for 335 millions of dollars, something like that. First fund at the end this quarter will have approximately 60% internal norm rate of return (IRR).

AND my family office, the fund you are talking about said before, also has 60%, and the fund on $335 million is located about the same scale. We have on today in three types of funds are not there was nothing that would be below 50%IRR. So we very lucky. We have were great companies, and things are going very well good. You could involve a huge fund if wanted. And, perhaps, you could do more to come investments. Perhaps, you could have separate fund for growth rounds etc. Why not do this?

make? What are the reasons? why don't you do this Are you doing? Yes. So, one of the things what I like to do, and what, in my opinion I think we are doing very well. we can do, and what like to do team, this create companies. Hmm. Regardless of whether do we launch them, in most of them we invest, and we we believe that significant part of the real one added value is in the top 5 years. Hmm. There are many funds. We are not we are trying accumulate assets.

You know, venture capital funds usually have 2% and 20% profitability. Large funds focus on 2%. We focus on 20%. So I just don't I want to do accumulation of assets . Our funds will become bigger, but this will happen because we add verticals, we let's add a little time. We we can add geography in some way moment. But I want keep doing what we do well . Hmm. And what we I like it. I have wake up every day and to feel that I I like what I am.

I do. And I think we , you know, yours in a small way we help change world. You mentioned Zola. This year it will be, I won't I know, 150,000 couples who will use wedding registry. This the idea came to me 12 years ago. This is great. I sat and drank from governor of New York 3 weeks ago. She is wonderful. copes. One of the topic she is talking about wanted to talk, was nuclear energy. Hmm. And how can we bring it to the state New York, because we need to block our plans, increase energy costs and reduce its cost, and also to help processing centers data.

And we are part of these things. AND psychedelics, I I hope that they there will be 4 who are sitting here in 10 years, I I hope 100,000 people from post-traumatic stress disorder received help from methylone, because we opened this compound and, you know, we will help you get out her to the market. We can talk. about methylone. It was wonderful molecule. I I mean, we Let's talk about it. Before we get there Let's go, I want to go. take a moment to pause from some investment items.

How did you get started? ping-pong on serious level? You know, it started back then. in high school. IN I had a table at basement, so I was one of the best people in your area . And then we had tournament among high school students, and I I saw that I won. its. And I realized that pretty good. Then they had regional tournament. So I went there and won it. And then I finally found state tournament, and there I was defeated. Then I started playing New York, because in New York York has a wonderful ping- pong.

This was the defeat, What was it like for you? needed? You just you say, "Oh, okay. OK." Well, I just didn't play enough. IN I didn't have a coach. I was just playing. in your area. Yes. Then I found a club ping-pong, which no longer exists, right here, on the corner White and Walker. Found a guy on name Musa, who was the 14th at the 1992 Olympics. He is from Nigeria. He freak of nature. AND started playing with him. AND then I played a few tournaments.

And then, when I became a member Yale administration university, I called ping-pong team and said, "Hey, are you Can I play with you? » And they answered: « Of course". And then I went and played with them and I realized that I can to stand up for yourself there, with university team. So I walked. play with them. And I still am I play when I can. to go to New York Haven. And that's why I just like it to play with, you know, I don't incredible, but I pretty good.

How often do you play and What kind of trainer do you have? coaching work? So, strangely enough, I I still play with Musa. AND then with another one a guy. My son pretty good. And here it is we are with him, he is 28. He is in New York, so we We will play tomorrow. You know, I probably... I play every two or three weeks. It's easy for me. I like it. It incredibly fun. Also great for your brain. The Chinese will all say, and I think they don't are mistaken that this incredibly good, because the brain has hand coordination and eyes, reacts extremely fast, hmm.

and barely noticeable. So this is must be very good for you. Good. Speaking of brain, we will be back to methanol, but First I want to to talk about vacation. Here is a quote. Again Yes, don't be shy. check the facts. It attributed to Kevin Ryan. I think that everyone should take from 4 to 5 weeks vacation. I would prefer to have someone who works 47 weeks on a year is enough intensively. Good. AND then it says: " Knowing that on general director more will affect him behavior than politics, he takes from 8 to 10 weeks vacations annually." But you are not quite disconnect from reality when Take this time.

Or can you tell me I wonder what yours looks like. distribution, and whether it was the same as in the first AlleyCorp years? For example, How long did it last? I told all my general directors, that when I created DoubleClick, obviously, as you heard, everything was enough intensively, and we went public through 24 months after beginning. Just another project . It's a different world now, huh? Yes, yes, those were old times. And I knew I had change your life, and I could only do three. things.

I drove the family. children to school. I understand. So you waited for this all night, and this led to awareness? I have never burned out, because I am myself set the pace, so I needed hard to work, to spend all the time needed with his family and to stay in shape. I shortened everything else. by approximately 80%. And this dear. This is the time with friends. I used to be a guy who was engaged in interesting cultural things. Disappeared. I was watching. sports broadcasts in my 20s in Sunday afternoon.

All disappeared. I arranged priorities for these three things. And then, 8 years so, my children left to college etc., and I could add new ones things and other things and to have more time. AND yes, some ways became more interesting. But I never wanted to. to find oneself in a situation, when my children were 18 at a time, and I thought, "Oh God, I didn't spend time with them time. We spent at least 4-5 weeks of vacation, doing great things together things, creating wonderful memories. It extremely important.

Today I am spending 8-10 weeks out of the office . I work every day, but sometimes it takes 2-3 hours just to to maintain order , but I can do it. And sometimes it's a whole day. For example, through I have a week. wedding in Ibiza, so I'll be there for 4 days, and the first 5 days before I will be in this. house in France. So in the morning I will to work intensively sports, incredible to ride a bicycle. You will need to arrive in some moment.

Great ride cycling, tennis, swimming. And then I already blocked that I will work 3 hours, from 9 until 12 New York time sometimes, closed for meetings. And then one day me too I will work at night. change, so...I next day I will work 8 hours. Hmm. But that's it. amazing day. Or if I ride skiing in France, I'll be back at 3:00 PM, and then I work from 3:00 p.m. to 8:30 PM, and then great I'm having dinner, that's it. incredible day. This is an amazing day.

"How to change your Michael's opinion Pollan. What is it for you? gave? So, I turned 54, that was 8 years ago, and never thought about psychedelics. Of course, never. I haven't tried anything. Just never. knew a lot. Read the book Michael Pollan. She was in New York Times" in 2017, in top 10 list books of the year, and I always I'm reviewing it to see what I have It's worth reading there. Read the book, and she literally changed my mind. It was called "How change your mind." And I realized later, than most people, who was wrong, that these Medications can be very useful for people, and that even at that time there was a lot academic results that showed that they can help with post-traumatic stress disorder and depression.

and anxiety. And at that time I was still in the council. Yale directors university, so I went and realized that Yale, it seems you once talked to John Crystal. Interviewed at John Crystal about his work with ketamine, fundamental work on depression and much more. Also had conversations with By Ben Kelmendi, for which I am very happy about. I just spent a week in the desert with Ben. Never met him personally. Oh, you just cheerful. He is fantastic. IN anyway, John Crystal is wonderful. I trying to meet with him during the next few weeks.

I understood that Yale performed amazing work. Hmm. He completely amazed him. They have Yale psychedelic center research. And I just made sure regarding long-term trends. I generally didn't think about investing in that time. I was just thinking, what is it that, as I convinced, most people don't realize, will be very effective and very important. I, probably one of largest donors Yale Center psychedelic research, performing a wonderful work. Then in 2021 year I decided talk to Ben... Who is Ben? Kelmendi, who was there as a professor, a superstar that the next stage will be commercial.

And this It was right. AND the reason is that, Do we like it or not? no, you need approximately 200 to 250 millions of dollars, to go through the process approval of one FDA compounds. Hmm. And I would like it to be there was less, but now Yes. And we won't be able to to collect this money from non-profit point vision. Even if you, you know, I think you contribute, I I contribute, but this will be not enough. Hmm. And then I said, you know, we need to see if it's worth it we create company in this industry .

And then we collaborated with Ben and the guy from of my team, which was in the Alikor team, Blake Mandel. AND so we worked on with this idea, came up with this metalon, significantly thanks in part to Ben. AND then they said: let's get this started. We believe that this very promising. Blake left Alikorp, which sometimes happens, to become general director. companies. And then we founded company. Metalon, for those who doesn't know, I want you to I was kept afloat. , but methylone, if I described it, my first experience methylone use was probably in 2015.

Oho. Early. But he had actually fall from truck body. He was very, very hard to find even in underground. Mhm. But incredibly a beautiful, gentle experience , and perhaps quiet, short cousin, absolutely. MDMA. So, instead of to come and to say: "When this "The guy is leaving?" 6 hours? It's more like something on like, "Wow, that was so nice. Came, didn't stay too long. Yes. So I would like to hear, How did you meet? methylone, or simply with what you would like to tell about methylone specifically, because I think it is was, I mean, just an apple.

I have meaning which one good choice. Which good choice from the point of view the sight of a horse, on which you can place a bet. Let's start with this. Let's start with the very methylone, because there are many people with him are not familiar. And even more so at that time. So, with business perspective and impact on society, we wanted to find something, what people didn't know about, but had some previous results , which meant that we thought it might to be effective. Hmm. And therefore most people are not realized then, that he has some advantages over MDMA.

And to things, I think MDMA fantastic for both for recreation, as well as for therapy. Hmm. Results tests were very good. But there is also some advantages. So, what you were talking about , in other words, you can you accept methylone once a a week in our trials. Actually you don't can you take MDMA once a week. Yes. He is a little more toxic. He a little more exhausts your serotonin. Yes, Sasha Shulgin I would say that if more than four times a year, he loses its magic.

Maybe many people become stable, not react. Sometimes a little softer the substance has advantages. Besides, you usually don't you have...an antidepressant, which some people feel from MDMA. And the duration of action much more compatible with medical service, as we know him, truth? It had these advantages. We still don't know. until we spend full double blind research. And then we started this process or collected money, and results turned out incredible. And the results, it's in within the limits of indications for PTSD. Yes. Right. We have a patent on PTSD , depression and anxiety, which is very valuable, therefore no one else can use it for 20 years in these three categories.

But you can start only from one indications, because it is $200 at a time. Yes. And at that time, if you remember, 2 years therefore, we survived period in psychedelics, when it there was a period of desert. It was difficult to collect money. It was not easy. So we can't couldn't do it all three. Well, I think so. partly due to that it was difficult to raise funds, was stigma, but it was many enthusiasts- capitalists who wanted to do something. I think it was a few common ones errors.

Someone assumed that it would be easier than it really is, to get something that lasts from 4 to 6 hours . Let's say this. It is necessary to prove that this could be scalable treatment and what you can you provide a certain quality of care, but what does that mean? IN you have extra Nurses, do you have additional people, and suddenly the value becomes very inaccessible. I would say separately about unification, we saw this is from Lycos, a merger psychotherapy, or not Yes? Association psychotherapy, and then you put it in front of advisory by the FDA committee, and they They say, "We don't know, how to evaluate whether standardize psychotherapy, and because we don't we do...

Yes. It won't pass. I have to meaning that in this there are many stories more than you know. As an observation of ecosystem, perhaps, vision of some early casual errors, affected the your approach? Oh, that's right, and there is such a proverb:" The earlier worm gets a titmouse, and the second mouse gets raw ". « Oh, who is the early bird? gets a worm, but the second mouse gets cheese. Yes, that's why sometimes it's better to be the second mouse. The first mouse break up. Cheese everything there is still, and then you can, You can have it.

It's like an iPod. I have on mind, yes, that's why we tried to learn on what they saw, and change certain things. I I think the FDA, you know, also changed from sometimes, and Trump administration gave a signal that they would definitely like to for this to happen. And I I think, as you know, did you mean that you were very early in 2015 year, yes, but now I I imagine it's huge. percentage of your random friends tried psychedelics . Oh, of course. Yes. In 2015, this number is probably was small.

Well, it was. small, and if you who are not like me lives in the bay area San Francisco, people were pretty quiet about it . Yes. I think that maybe pendulum in some cases swayed too much. It's like if I have to listen to another one traveler who bored because neon crocodiles, it's like listening to someone Dreams every morning, you know, it's like: okay, I I understand. At the same time, this yes, it was quite otherwise. Yes. And I mean, Look, I...I don't want to. forget too much far away, but although I did a podcast about ibogaine in 2015: « "Really?" Wow, I So he did.

Yes, with Martin Polanco and Dr. Dan Engel, who considered some work that were held in Mexico, but it was yes...I mean, this is just the beginning. Wow, you've been before. Yes, the first hundred monkeys, launched into space, isn't that right? I am not was going to do this to subscribe, but I would never guessed that ibogaine will be what that will be remembered in The Oval Office, when signing executive order. Yes. And looking back, this makes a lot of sense, and I have to imagine. application of PTSD to this politically immune group.

For example, if you left or right as politician, you can't to say "damn" veterans." That's right. This is also a sign of PTSD, as a kind of hint on...the list has this advantage. Yes. And one thing about which I didn't mention here, this is what we created Transcend as a corporation public good. Yes, I wanted to. to talk about it, Yes. And this means that initial shareholders committed to transfer 10% of your profit because is essentially a fund, and that we Blake and I will allocate this money.

AND so we will pass 20 million dollars within the next 9 months for business, related to psychedelics. So we currently in this process . I hired a person to part-time worker day to do it, but it arose, therefore that we focus on veterans from post-traumatic stress disorder with political reasons. We , like the entire industry. The number one source is sexual violence. Absolutely. Yes. And therefore our trial were actually 60% women, because more women have post-traumatic stress disorder than men. And I think, that it's a little hidden , so we are going consider some affairs and support this, and try see if we can we will transfer part this money in this branch.

So, I think a few things. The first is Respect to you, because I want you to me. corrected if I I'm wrong, but, as in any public organization, has its own charter, declared mission. I communicated with many of them. But, after all, I remember one of the questions that I had for someone else, who led one of them. I said something on like, "Well, if you you'll change your mind later, how will you be attracted to responsibility? "AND he replied: "You You are silent. Right? "AND I replied: "You can break the rules and to avoid punishment." "So the fact that you, Guys, keep it up.

initiatives, many means. How are you? thinking about...me I'm sure it's not just open casting, because in your mailbox there will be a million strange drawings that someone should have combed. As you are thinking about how distribute these 20 millions? So we're still thinking about this. We already have 50 organizations with which I am not dating. companies, but...Yes, You seem busy. a person. Yes. But Nicholas Boiled, which is responsible for this, met people. We collect this, Let's look at the world. IN will take place in October big PSFC meeting, and then we will begin to leave from here.

Psychedelic Science Funders Collaborative, although now they expanded by the limits of mere science, but I am PSFC. But this is the biggest donor collection in psychedelic sphere. psfc.co, I think. Yes. And they do great job. But..." The thing is that we we strive not to provide 500 grants, and to provide about 20, and have real grants. Most of these small organizations . So there is a big the probability that we we will become the biggest donor psychedelic industry during the next 12 months. Only for 12 months.

And I still have there is no complete answers to this question. We are starting to think where we can influence? What are we we can do something that is not do other people do? Hmm. We probably don't we will allocate so much for nothing academic research. Hmm. Even in Oregon and Colorado is legal psychedelics. Or at least decriminalized. Well, every state has a program that is legal, you know, for them distribution and granting. With such a parallel structure, yes. Yes, but you know, not even 0.5% of people with depression or post-traumatic stress disorder have access to this .

One of the largest the problems we face we encounter, it is too high cost. And one of things that make me interesting, it's an attempt show that group therapy also works. Hmm. So, I think that in in some cases even better, I think that maybe even better. I would argued that better. Yes, it's the same here. THERE ARE the reason why Alcoholics Anonymous do it in group environment because you get support from others people. Hmm. And you probably took participation in some group ceremonies, and they can be very powerful.

Hmm. The FDA was very concerned about about this. It a completely new thing. How are you? Do you control this? Therefore, we need to get to at the moment when we need to lower the cost that is the end result . What is your hope for ecosystems commercial organizations? Or do you hope that more people will leave your feet? If yes, then how are they, how a better version of yourself or the best version of yourself, can guarantee, what if incentives will become truly tempting later , they will not change your opinion?

Of corporations public good. That's right. I was incredibly disappointed with that how many hundreds millionaires, billionaires were replaced my life thanks to these things, but none not significantly supported ecosystem or science, from which ultimately depends significantly part of them work. Personally, I It was very...I... it's frustrating because a person who in some way invested the moment about 20% of all their net assets, but that doesn't mean that I I consider it academic. community as a panacea with all the reasons you called, for example, market-oriented solution for very expensive FDA processes.

It is incredibly important, isn't that right? How are you? Do you think it is possible? to make it possible to gently encourage people? I mean, you are doing great work, doing this, or wrong? Simply demonstrate this. And I I think that from this it will turn out a lot good. Are there any thoughts on how encourage more people to participate? I don't know how to do them. to force, but, well, I know that actually spending a series of conversations with people and discuss who called me.

AND What am I doing, I'm going to to speak before a smaller group of PSFCs to give an example of why did we do this just like that, we done. You know, we made it from several reasons. Firstly, after all, we believed This is fair. On- secondly, it reminded me everyone in the company that this company managed mission. You know, yes, after all, it could be a good outcome; but we do it, and everyone has join this company because he wants make the world a better place.

We want to help to these people who suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder, and that's 10 million people, and this is a real problem , and then finally also depression. So everyone, who joined knew, that the initial shareholders, members board, chairman the board already committed to this to do, and we we are going support their words. And I think that we just need to push everyone to this. I don't know the best way force them. I'm so glad you did. do. I hope the more people will follow this example.

My friend, venture capitalist, very successful as business angel, joined the venture capital firm, very known, achieved incredible successes, and some time ago he started as if retreat. And me too proposed to create the fund forever, and I am with many reasons not I am sure that I will be in this is good work or what should I do this is especially I like it, I don't I know, but he said: "Oh, early stage venture" stage..." dead. "AND I thought: "What are you do you mean by dead enterprises on early stage?

And he meant that if your bread for life—this many technologies, oriented towards consumer. He replied: "I just created a Twitter clone in 12 hours as non-technical man, using Vibe- encoding, XY and Z". Ultimately, this not enough to just replace X, or wrong? But is it a trick? on the deep technologies consists of in the fact that in the deep technologies have more protected ditches, or Is this something more? This is partly true, but, probably this is also the case, that the world is changing. Hmm. So, in this consumer the idea you are talking about you say, you know, there are 164 soft drinks.

Yes. Chances are you come up with one that will stand out, quite small. Yes. Whereas the changes that occur or took place in the sun, windy, geothermal or nuclear energy. Will be signed contracts for billions, billions and billions of dollars for energy production. Robotics is exactly. We we observe extraordinary development". So, we we get 10 times and 100x improvement robots that will change world. Hmm. I just don't see it. same in e-commerce . Healthcare in this country can be better. We spend many. We don't have excellent results.

A difficult question, but that's why we really we do what I do I call it traditional. software provision, AI is one group, security Health is one group, and deep technology is one group. And these are three areas our attention. We have specialized teams, but we we are doing more number of deep technologies than 4-5 years ago. Certainly , this is the industry that grew the most precisely for these reasons. AND it is intellectual interesting. This is fun. Yes, you many reasons learn. You are many things learn.

Space, in we have investments in space, company under called Portal, which can help to move satellites from one area to another. And there is just whole ecosystem that is a kind of consequence that which is 10 times more satellites, which we will have. Regarding robotics, what are the effects of the second or third order can open opportunities? Because investing in someone who really like Boston Dynamics, far beyond my wage level, but I think that, maybe that's what why concentrated attention. I say this very simple, but if many people focused on this, maybe the effects second or third no more order are taken into account.

Yes. So, let's let's look at the movement and social changes, and whether there will be more robots in 10 years? Yes, I am. I think so. IN 100 times more. I have meaning that here they are will be literally from 100 up to 1000 or 10,000 times more. Yes. And therefore, I think that business opportunities will be in very vertical use. Textile factory, you know, something like that, or car factory , or something like that. And this is happening now, and this will continue occur. You know, Where it's more difficult is in such things as restaurant, because works best working early stages when they can do one thing and do it very good.

When they need to cut vegetables, take out the trash up the stairs and go to the nearest deli to buy what we need product. People can do it enough good. With robots more difficult. So disposable using- the best way for this in factories. So this will be huge for every factory. You still optimistically are set on massage with the help of robots, and to what extent you are considering unfilled vacancies as, perhaps, one of criteria? I am optimistic. tuned, and we, you know, there were investor in Escape, who is doing this.

This is a product that everyone still developing, but it will work. I I mean, I I remember that 2 years ago therefore in this country there were 17,000 unfilled vacancies in the field massage. And you, probably, went to the hotel like me, and you come, and you say: "Yes, can I?" to do tomorrow afternoon massage? "Like, "Hmm, fully occupied." Yes, and in 3 days at in such a case you say: "I don't have 9:00 a.m.," and you you will say: "No, "I won't be at the hotel." Or you say: "8:00 morning" or "9:00 am".

No way, no one not working at this time. 7:00 PM nobody works. If you had there was a car... Mmm... and 25% of people prefer have a job... Mmm... Some people think, which would be much It's better to have a person. Yes. There are many people who don't like to take off clothes, don't feel comfortable with this comfortable and feel better with robot. Mmm. So, another example what you wouldn't thought. And this solvable problem. And we, probably , 70% of the way to it solution. Are there any more?

vacancies with a large quantity unfilled positions, which do locality attractive? Yes, again, we did not solve the problem with a restaurant. And with food , and...This is important question. I wonder how much, Friend, I would like to to talk to Travis Kalanick about this. He, my friend, more than anyone from those I know, thinks about it a lot. Yes, and he is engaged industrialization, so he has more chances of doing it. The truth is that most restaurants –this is a big family shops, so this harder to do.

But yes, we are watching by support service customers. We had incredible call, during which one of our agents artificial intelligence talked to someone by phone and after 15 seconds said: " Excuse me, could you please you feel more comfortable than another language?" "And man said: "Well, actually, can we we will talk in Spanish? And he was very good, and then just spent the rest of the conversation in Spanish. A great example. And if you listen, then conversation in full changed because she was It's hard to explain what this is.

medical problem, she it was very difficult explain in English , and then immediately without solved the problem problem. This is so beautiful. example. Wow. It It happens quickly. This is how it happens. quickly. If you think about an example of one of companies, ideally the one you co-founded, which was like a descent boulder down, it's like: “Wow, that’s really true. In a sense, everything fell into place, in ideals are not simple by chance ". "And then one that pushed the boulder up, I wonder what kind the biggest difference.

What comes to mind and what there were differences between them? I mean, I I will bring you a good one. an example that I still disappointed. We understood that we would many, essentially, Shopify for medical companies. Hmm. Because we created these security sites health, and we found that we create a lot the same things. Time planning, and this It was 3 or 4 years ago. Planning, information, all that. It didn't matter whether this was for you cancer treatment, or for your problems with back. Many repetitive functions.

And it has to be compatible. with HIPAA, which most sites are not respond. So we created a company Shopify for Medical sites. And we, somehow reasons, invested 6 millions of dollars, but in the end it's just didn't get there. People are reluctant were registered. They didn't see anyone another. Maybe this it was not enough good performance. It felt like this must exist. And we are so and they didn't remove it." turned off. And then had to accept decision about it closing. It seems you don't too early.

Reasons unknown? They are unknown to me. Are we not enough? Did you work well? Or we had to wait one more year to get the first 10 leading customers, and Was that enough? It is obvious that most companies reluctantly at the time were transferred to outsourcing to someone to another. So I still don't I know. And sometimes you don't you know. This is still not exactly like that, uh, like planned. DoubleClick went public 24. No, 48 months? No, no, he was public for 7 years. Sorry.

After him creation. Yes, in 24 months after we started. I mean, there is market conditions and everything like that, but then you have there is something like MongoDB, it was ten years. Yes. Right? Before the IPO. Why Yes? Firstly, we don't have there was no income within 3 hours half a year. AND if you do notes, don't do this, because it is made it difficult raising money. It complex product. Aegean g. Also, if I said, you know, my base data—it's like pacemaker. If I told you: "In I have an idea to create pacemaker, "Would you like to try?" AND you would answer, “No.

No. Call me when a thousand people will use your pacemaker for two years. But if everyone is like that They say I can't do it. to release your pacemaker on market". Hmm. So, we needed a lot of time. To us it took a long time to give it away free, use for inexpensive things, a then slowly achieved the goal. So even after eight years we received 40 millions of income, which not so much. Hmm. But the use increased sharply. The product worked. The product became better, and today it costs, I don't know, 30 billion dollars, and this incredible company.

What are your personal rules about what you do when the company becomes public? What is yours? policy on maintenance, sales parts, sales all? How do you feel about this? Do you think? Because I know several business angels who...like: " Listen, public market is not my game. Just this will become public, I I will sell 50%, and the rest I'll just leave it at place, and then everything will be very simple." « I definitely don't have one. policy. I am holding on. him until I think this is wonderful.

investment, and I think that it will grow for a long time time. In [ __ ] in a certain the moment you really need to receive money if you have it company for investing in others things. Therefore I do not sold shares in the first year or two, when was she public, and then the price has increased, and I just slowly started selling, and in I still have shares, but Over time I sold a large percentage. Now we will plant plane. So, Kevin, if you could to place something metaphorically on billboards to convey message to millions, billions people.

We can just pretend that everyone they are talking in English. They, you know, they can to figure it out. But what if you could place on this billboard? It maybe a motto, maybe be a quote, maybe to be something non-commercial. Something comes to mind? So I'll tell you something. different than you think. I would like to The United States was more balanced society. Mhm, and more open and more..." caring society that we we care about others people. I'm not worried. for our startups. Our startups develop wonderful technology, financing, all of this perfectly.

Many entrepreneurs. I I am worried about long-term perspective on income inequality in this country. Hmm. I don't think we we solve this problem. I think that people's ability in this the country to advance career ladder, as we statistically, decreased. And I think, that all this is us will catch up. Hmm. And this is wrong. IN people have bad schools, they don't have support. We will have this transition. None doubts, we can discuss time, we we will lose workers places through artificial intelligence. Hmm. And I don't think we we are in good position, to help people have a successful life.

Therefore, I would like to the country thought about it. So, regardless of whether we we are on at the highest levels state authority, or you are in The Oval Office, and it's like, "Kevin, the card-" blanche.” You can pull two levers . “What are the levers? Try to achieve some progress in solving some problems you just had remembered. So, one of them will lead to the fact that we will have to solve the problem budget deficit. Hmm. At some point we don't we know where this point is, but she can sneak up on us right now.

To us will have to eventually to have more fair tax system, where the rich pay 30% taxes, what are they They don't pay now. We should reduce budget deficit, therefore what does this reduce the interest rate that affects everyone. Hmm. To do this. AND then we will have to just agree that we will be better to help people to join the right colleges, to get the right ones degrees. I am not I definitely have to I mean higher degrees, I I mean professional preparation, retraining, etc.

We must reach at the moment when higher percentage people are good is studying, both they and they feel that their children are well will study. When people and families do not feel that their children will learn better, they fall in despair they leave..." or to the far right , or to the far left , and none of these solutions will not be correct. Hmm. We will have to attract more immigrants to this countries. What do you think, how is it? make? Because I am from I agree with you.

And I have I mean, what did I see? so much important pain, say, in recruiting in Silicon Valley and this, that and the other. This is wild. I have on mind you, this is a country immigrants. So how you think with this fight? Listen, for the last few years the president reported message that that immigrants are bad. Yes. And I just think that incomprehensible, and everyone in Silicon Valley, who supported this, earned his money on support immigrants. Yes. This is pretty disgusting. I mean, listen, is we must have unlimited quantity people who coming through border?

Absolutely not. Nobody says that. Should my mother company problems with to attract doctors sciences in the field artificial intelligence with other countries to The United States? As it's a good idea to stop the arrival of these people? Hmm. We must open your door and say : "Do you have a..." master's degree from artificial intelligence and computer science or something similar. Of course you you can come and work here. « Come here. work. Do you think that they will stay unemployed? I doubt it. They will earn 500,000 dollars per year, will join some company, and in 3 years they will establish own company, will hire 5000 people.

I have on mind you, as you said, we are all immigrants. It there must be a country where are coming now the most talented people world. Hmm. And we don't should take a hundred millions of them, but we must accept, you know, a million of them. Yes. Two million from them. Population will be reduced. This has a certain negative impact on us. We must complement this. Hmm. By our entire history immigrants are great are coping. You know, data shows that our immigrants from Haiti is wonderful.

cope with Nigeria is great cope with Kosovo is great are coping. They just cranky people who want slave, no matter what they do were engaged, and I want to so that there were more of them. Yes. And this is the opposite point of view today. I agree. I agree with that 100%. I mean, I saw it. the same as this:" Okay, let me. Let me clarify. You are you going to keep these doctors of science from X, Y and Z away from countries, and you know what?

They are talented. They will be used with great influence, and they will create something incredible. Question in so will it be here or not? At Yale at the university we we see pressure to not to involve scientists, that some scientists feel uncomfortable. We have there was one who left to Oxford and Cambridge, people went to Canada. This should not be occur. Premier- English league football—the best league in the world not because of English players. Yes. Because they have Norwegian players, Egyptian players, there are players from Ghana.

IN basically, they don't care . They don't want to the best people. Hmm. And that's what we always do were and should continue to be. Hmm. Uh, we hear. Kevin, before we finish what else would you like say? What else are you would like to point out people? People can... Find Allycorp online, of course, with writing, as it is sounds, allycorp.com. I I will include LinkedIn and Allycorp X, and all this in the notes to show. Everything else you would like to... The only thing I would say is, and the fact that you are in New- York for a month or two...

Mmm... emphasizes that New York just flourishes. Yes, he is now. flourishes. And we had incredible summer with Knicks, Championship world and the Open the US Championship, but restaurants, startups... Mmm... I couldn't. to feel better. You know, we are very focused on New York, but I see it this way many people who are moving from Europe, are coming to New York, create companies. [ __ ] was run by someone who was an immigrant. DataDog was founded French entrepreneurs. These are two the most valuable technological companies here.

Even though I said he would come to us more people, and New- York will be very, very successful. He is burning. Yes, he is really burning. I have I mean, I feel like home. base...Austin. Austin— a thriving city with a million different reasons. It's not soon. will slow down, but New York is New York. Yes, since I grew up New Yorker, this constantly amazes me. But this particular one season, this season New- York is simply amazing. This is really exciting. And the more I visit, the more time I I spend outside United States, but the United States of business point of view technologies simply defeated them.

And we we all see it, but future industries industry, and we has to to worry about China, because China does a lot wonderful things, but we we do a lot wonderful things. And everyone in Europe and Latin America is being watched us and at the same time concerned and amazed. Yes. Well, thanks for your time. , Kevin. Nice to meet you. see. And for everyone, who is listening, we have there will be links to everything in the show notes, tim.blog/podcast. The only and the unique Kevin Ryan, just type his name, and all will appear.

And to next time be a little kinder than necessary, to others and Pull. And thank you. for settings.

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