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France Hasn't Balanced a Budget Since 1974 — Here's What Happens Next

Pay attention to who actually benefits from the policies and systems frustrating you. The next time a major policy decision confuses you, ask one question: who profits from this outcome? Trace the incentives backward through the businesses, politicians, and institutions involved before accepting th

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Summary published by , updated .

Impact Theory

Key Takeaway

Pay attention to who actually benefits from the policies and systems frustrating you.

The next time a major policy decision confuses you, ask one question: who profits from this outcome? Trace the incentives backward through the businesses, politicians, and institutions involved before accepting the official explanation.

André Jik and Tom Bilyeu argue that most large-scale social problems follow a predictable pattern: gains flow to those at the top, costs fall on everyone else. Recognizing that pattern is the first step toward making smarter personal decisions inside a system designed to extract from you.

Episode Overview

Why is Europe in crisis, and what does it mean for everyone else?

YouTuber André Jik walks through five theories about the unrest spreading across France and Europe. Tom Bilyeu, hosting the reaction, adds context, pushback, and his own read on the incentive structures driving each explanation.

The conversation covers three broad layers:

  • The numbers. Europe's welfare state, demographic decline, and immigration policy have put its fiscal math under severe strain.
  • The incentives. Big business, politicians, ideologues, and central planners each benefit from the current chaos in ways that reduce their motivation to fix it.
  • The darker theories. From manufactured civil unrest to a surveillance state expansion, Jik and Bilyeu examine claims about coordinated elite control, with Bilyeu noting where evidence is thin.

The conversation treats Europe as a potential preview of pressures already building in the United States.

Main Insights

1. Follow the incentives before accepting the official story

When a policy clearly fails its stated purpose but continues anyway, the useful question is who benefits from its continuation.

Bilyeu summarizes this with Charlie Munger's line: show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome. In Europe's immigration case, four groups benefit while ordinary people absorb the costs:

  • Big business gets cheaper labor and lower wages for competitors.
  • Politicians gain new voter blocs.
  • Ideologues earn moral credit without living near the consequences.
  • Central planners accumulate surveillance powers every time a crisis justifies expansion.

This does not require a coordinated conspiracy. Each actor is following its own rational incentive, and the combined effect lands on working-class neighborhoods, schools, and wage floors.

2. Integration requires pressure, not just invitation

André Jik describes learning English quickly as a child in the US because he had no choice. There was no Russian-speaking enclave nearby, so language and local norms were the only path to friendship, school, and work.

He contrasts that with Brighton Beach in New York, where a newcomer could live entirely in Russian and face almost no pressure to adapt. When a welfare state removes the economic necessity to integrate, many people simply do not.

Denmark's response was a law requiring children in certain neighborhoods to attend daycare where they learn Danish language and values. Italy capped foreign students per classroom. Both are examples of states belatedly recognizing that integration needs structural enforcement, not just goodwill.

3. GDP growth can mask a real decline in living standards

Bilyeu points out that GDP is calculated as total output, not output per person. A country can keep its headline number rising by adding more workers, even if each individual resident is getting poorer.

This means importing cheap labor can make a country look economically healthy while its citizens' wages stagnate and public services deteriorate.

France's fiscal situation makes the math concrete: the country has not balanced its budget since 1974, pensions consume about 14% of GDP, and total public spending runs around 54% of GDP. The gap between the aggregate number and the lived experience of ordinary residents is where the political pressure builds.

4. Crises tend to outlast the emergency powers they justify

Before the 2024 Paris Olympics, France became the first EU country to legalize AI-powered video surveillance in public spaces. The cameras were described as a temporary Olympic measure.

They were extended. The French government is now seeking to keep the program running until 2030.

Bilyeu and Jik treat this as a pattern rather than an exception. Each crisis creates a justification for expanding surveillance or restricting speech, and those powers rarely retract once the original emergency passes. Operation Gladio, the Cold War NATO stay-behind program later linked to false-flag bombings in Italy, is cited as a historical example of governments manufacturing fear to expand control.

5. The most useful personal response is ownership

Jik closes with a direct argument: if the system profits from your poor health, your ignorance, your divided attention, and your lack of assets, then each area where you take back control is a concrete act of resistance.

His specific suggestions:

  • Cook your own food and read labels, so pharmaceutical profit from chronic illness has less purchase on you.
  • Educate yourself through free sources rather than relying on institutions with misaligned incentives.
  • Notice when an algorithm is making you anxious or angry, and close the app.
  • Hold assets that cannot be printed away or frozen.

Bilyeu frames this as recognizing you are a player in the game, not just a subject of it.

Frameworks or Models

K-shaped economy

A description of economic growth where outcomes diverge sharply between groups rather than rising together.

  • The top of the K represents those whose incomes, assets, and opportunities increase.
  • The bottom of the K represents those whose wages stagnate, jobs disappear, or living costs rise faster than income.

Bilyeu applies this to Europe's immigration and defense spending policies: cheap labor benefits owners and reduces competition pressure for elites, while factory workers, delivery drivers, and cleaners compete against a larger labor pool for the same wages. Defense contracts privatize gains to weapons manufacturers while cuts to pensions and public services socialize the losses.

Paradox of tolerance

Karl Popper's 1945 argument that a society practicing unlimited tolerance will eventually be dominated by intolerant groups.

  • If a society extends tolerance to all beliefs and behaviors without limit, groups that actively oppose tolerance can exploit that openness to gain power.
  • Once in power, those groups have no obligation to maintain the tolerance that allowed their rise.

Jik uses this to explain why European governments that avoided enforcing integration rules found that parallel societies and enclaves grew stronger over time, making later enforcement progressively harder.

Notable Quotes

"Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome."

Tom Bilyeu (quoting Charlie Munger)

"We privatize the gains and socialize the losses. It's cheap labor for the owners, but wage pressure for the workers."

Tom Bilyeu

"There will come a day that we will see far more radical extremists and terrorists coming out of Europe because of lack of decision making, trying to be politically correct or assuming that they know the Middle East and they know Islam and they know the others far better than we do."

Abdullah bin Zayed (UAE Foreign Minister, quoted by André Jik)

"If the plan is you'll own nothing and be happy, then the most rebellious thing I can do is own something."

André Jik

Action Items

Suggested exercises inspired by the conversation.

  • 1
    Trace the incentives behind a confusing policy

    Pick one policy or social trend that puzzles you, something that seems to persist despite obvious failure.

    1. List who would benefit if the policy continued as-is.
    2. List who pays the cost.
    3. Ask whether the gap between those two groups explains why nothing changes.

    This is not about finding a conspiracy. It is about developing the habit of reading incentive structures rather than accepting official rationales at face value.

  • 2
    Audit your attention habits for one week

    Jik argues that algorithms profit from keeping you scared, angry, and divided. Run a short experiment.

    1. Each time you feel anxious or outraged while scrolling, note the platform and topic.
    2. At the end of each day, count how many of those moments led to useful action versus just more scrolling.
    3. Identify one platform or content type that consistently produces frustration without useful output, and reduce your time there deliberately.
  • 3
    Identify one area where you can move toward ownership

    Bilyeu and Jik argue that assets you own outright are harder for external systems to erode through inflation, debanking, or platform decisions.

    Consider:

    • What do you currently rent or subscribe to that you could own?
    • Do you hold any assets not tied to a single currency or platform?
    • What skills or knowledge do you have that remain yours regardless of economic conditions?

    Start with one concrete step rather than a complete overhaul.

  • 4
    Apply the integration pressure test to your own environment

    Jik's point about enclave formation applies beyond immigration. People in any comfortable subculture, professional bubble, or algorithm-curated feed can avoid the friction that usually drives growth.

    1. Identify one area of your life where you face almost no challenge to your existing views or habits.
    2. Ask what pressure, if any, would cause you to adapt.
    3. Consider whether introducing some deliberate friction, a different information source, a new community, a harder skill, would accelerate your development.

Go deeper

Full Transcript

Read or copy the complete episode transcript.

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It's inexpensive to form and very simple to maintain. It's how you open a business bank account. It's how customers know they're dealing with a real company. And Taylor Brands doesn't stop at the filing. Their dashboard tracks what comes next based on what your business actually needs. So EIN number, registered agent, licenses and permits, bookkeeping, business banking. I tell every founder the same thing. Just make it official. Click the link in the show notes to check out Taylor Brands and get started on your business today. This is a paid advertisement. The writing in France and across Europe is a necessary part of the global elite's plan to strip mine the west of its assets and leave all of us owning nothing and being happy. At least that's the theory in this latest video from Andre Jik. Let's take a look. So it looks like something is happening and Europe might be falling. There will come a day that we will see far more radical extremists and terrorists coming out of Europe because of lack of decision making, trying to be politically correct or assuming that they know the Middle East and they know Islam and they know the others far better than we do. And I'm sorry, but that's pure ignorance. All right. What we're going to be going through here, Jik has done a really interesting job of bringing together all the different takes that people have on France. And I'll be giving you mine, which is not something that you're hearing a lot in the public discourse, but I think is actually the biggest thing that people are missing. So we are going to get into the mcfick tick of it all. Simon Dixon ends up being the biggest part of this video. But the Islamification of the West, if you will, is also a big narrative. I've had criticism that people think I'm under indexing on that. The reason that I'm under indexing on that is while I do think that open borders is an absolute catastrophe that we are all going to have to contend with in the West, it is being driven by something that people are failing to understand at their own peril. The question isn't what happens when you let a bunch of people that have a totally different religion than you in your country. The question is why are people doing that? What is the ideology that's driving that? That, I think, is the thing that people have to contend with because the second you try to make this all about the Islamification of the West, you're going to get video after video after video after video of ethnically European French people smashing and grabbing and being a part of the problem. So that has to be put in that bigger context. But I'll let André walk through this first of what are several theories about what could be going on in France and across Europe. So what we're watching are protests breaking out all over Europe. More than half a million people protested in France. Their supermarkets were looted. Luxury boutiques were smashed. Public buildings set on fire. Thousands of people were arrested. And in Milan, rioters cleared out one of the most famous squares in Europe. Belgium and Portugal also had marches that same weekend. And a week before that, a 400-year-old market in Paris also burned to the ground. So the question is what is happening in Europe? Now, the official story is that this is about underfunded schools, right? Students protesting things like leaky ceilings and missing teachers. But that was the story in the beginning. They pretty quickly moved away from that because it got hijacked. The narrative just does not make sense. Something much bigger is happening in Europe. That is for sure. And the question is why? So in today's video, I want to share with you some of the more interesting theories that I've come across. And these theories range from money-related problems all the way to some extremely dark ideas. For example, some people say that after decades and decades of welfare spending, Europe just ran out of money. And they tried to fix it with immigration. Because the more people you have... Those are two separate phenomena. So I think the best version of this hypothesis would go that you've created a welfare state. You have got two simultaneous problems running. Your welfare state is attracting a non-entrepreneurial type of immigrant who's like, ah, yes, I want a nice social safety net. And that as your real wealth is declining, you realize that to stabilize your GDP, you're going to have to bring in more workers. You've got a demographic problem happening in the West, where we're just not having nearly enough kids. And then you also have Europe making so many asinine, especially energy policy decisions, that their growth rate is just declining. Remember, energy usage is basically predictive, associated with, causatively linked to your GDP. So as Europe began to pull back on energy usage, actively want to discourage people from using energy, lo and behold, they started shrinking their GDP. So now you've got a stagnant Europe that realizes, oh, we have a demographic problem. We're going to have to solve that. So I don't think it's like, oh, we realize we've run out of money by having the social welfare state. We've got to get immigrants in. It's we have a demographic challenge, and we need to get our GDP numbers up. GDP numbers are not calculated at a per-person basis. It should probably be much smarter. They're calculated on a just how many people do we have in the country producing something basis. So the more people you have that are actually doing something, then your GDP is going up. And so you can mask a decline that by getting cheap workers in from foreign places. So I think, and this is a big part of the problem, is you've got both the left and the right that want to bring immigrants in because they're just cheap labor. And then on top of that, you have the ideological push on the left of guilt over, oh my God, we were imperialistic, and we have taken advantage of other people for too long. We need to let them come take advantage of our wealth. Just absolutely suicidal. Working jobs, the better off your economy tends to be. Okay. Some people say the immigration theory has failed, that the people that were imported were people who were never going to assimilate. And all these immigration models have failed, and we are watching them fail. That is for sure. Assimilation is absolutely required. Some people say that all of this is actually intentional because someone always profits from this chaos, whether that's the military industrial complex or what people are calling the Agenda 2030 endgame. Now, unfortunately, some of these theories hold up surprisingly well. I'm going to explain all of them and the reasons behind it and why this is so important, even if you don't live in Europe, because every one of these theories has parts of them that are already happening here in the US. We have the same immigration debate, the same debt problem, the same surveillance technology. And some people believe that what we're watching in Europe is actually just the beginning, right? It's the testing ground for what's coming next for the United States. If you think that the overlords at the point that they no longer need people because, frankly, AI plus humanoid robots does any job that humans do better than the humans can do it. If you think they're going to keep us around for sentimental reasons, you have not been paying attention. So I'm going to do my best to explain all of these ideas and what I personally think. So with that said, let's get into it. Hi, my name is Andrej. I hope you're doing well. Come for the finance and stay for whatever's happening in Europe. So let me start with a theory that's based purely on the math and numbers. This theory says that what's happening in Europe all comes down to capital money. I mean, at the end of the day, everything is economic. There's no doubt about that. You would not be seeing all of this if we had a booming economy for sure. And given how much worse Europe is, it's not no surprise that it's happening there first. Because in order for an economy to grow, it needs more productive people working for the system than people taking from the system. Yeah, productive is the key there. So imagine like a restaurant where every retiree gets to eat for free and the bill gets paid by everyone that's eating there. Now, that technically works when you have 10 people for every retiree. But what happens when everyone stops having kids? In that case, the retirees get to live longer. And now imagine you've got only two people that are trying to cover the whole room of retirees expecting to be paid. That is basically the European welfare state. And France is the most extreme example of this. It spends roughly a third of its whole economy on social programs. Well, that is crazy. And then there, when you look at their full expenditures that are public in nature, it's like 54 percent. I mean, it's absolutely insane. Way more than any other developed country. Pensions by themselves are about 14 percent of GDP, second only to Italy. And France hasn't balanced its budget since 1974. Dude, that's so crazy. The last time. That is so crazy. Yeah, that's unacceptable. I cannot believe France still exists. Had a surplus was when Nixon just resigned. And today, its debt is around 3.6 trillion euros. Which is about 119 percent of its GDP. Interest payments are expected to cost around 65 billion euros this year. So the question is, where do productive people come from to pay for all those retirees? Their math is really bad. See, you need about 2.1 kids per woman to keep a population stable. And the European Union is only at 1.34. That's the lowest level on record. So that is part of the problem. Dude, that's rough. Then what is the solution? Well, let's just pretend that you are one of the central planners, right? You're one of the people running Europe. How do you solve it? Immigration, right? If your own population is not having enough kids, then you import the workers from somewhere else. Thing is, it's a good strategy if you're selective about who you bring into the country and you make them assimilate. Be selective, make them assimilate. Then it's a brilliant strategy if you can't get your own people to populate. But what they're doing is wild. This isn't even a conspiracy theory. It's been talked about for a really long time. See, back in the year 2000, the United Nations published a report literally titled Replacement Migration. And that report calculated how many immigrants Europe would need to keep its workforce from getting smaller. Today, about one in four babies born in Europe has a mother who was born in another country. If you zoom in on Brussels, one city, it's like only 25 percent. I think it's less, but I'll be generous and say 25 percent of the people in that city, it's just a city, but in that city are actually native Belgians. Wild. Now, there's also another element to this story. And it was pointed out by someone in a tweet that got over a million views. And what they said was a lot of the young Europeans who were born there spent the 2010s collecting useless degrees the economy doesn't actually pay for. And now... By the way, that's the government getting involved in guaranteeing debt. Don't do that. This is why people get confused. Capitalism is not the thing that's breaking. What's breaking is the amount of social intervention the government is doing. The economy is transforming. AI is coming for entry level jobs, and they have nothing to show for it. So naturally, the government has to cut spending. It has to cut its obligations. And that is why their pensions got reduced, their ministries were cut, public spending was squeezed. The only category that wasn't was defense. So if you're a 17 year old in France, sitting in a classroom, you're watching your government have no money for you, but have all the money in the world for weapons. Okay, let's hold on. No money for you is a very wild claim. That is what they think, but that's a very wild claim when they're spending more than the vast majority of countries on planet Earth. France is not stinging their populace. France is simply trying to be a little bit more mildly, ever so tiny amount more wise in how much money they spend in their deficits, because they realize that the system is going to break, and then you're left with nothing but pandemonium. So in an effort to try to stop the whole system from breaking, they have to do something. They've got to start cutting from somewhere. And given that you've got Europe warning their citizens, hey guys, be ready for war, then yes, they are going to have to start spending more on defense. So the question is, when you're structured like France, and you're just basically these battling groups because you don't have local elections, there's no local person to basically hire and fire politically, every five years you elect basically a king who can just do whatever the hell they want. This is the flaw of the French system. And given that, then you have no recourse for the next five years other than essentially shutting the country down, which is why they do this all the time, right. And that is part of why this underfunded schools is part of the controversy. The spending is going somewhere else. But there's also A lot of other demographic and money-related problems. So that is theory number one. Europe made monetary promises it can't afford to pay, its population has stopped replacing itself, and immigration was supposed to be how they tried to fix it. Here's theory number two. Now, before I explain that, I want to talk about the most important investment that I have ever made, which is my health. 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Now the second theory says that what's happening in Europe is the failure of immigration and not only was it a failure, but it was predicted to be a failure by the foreign minister of the UAE back in 2017. Here's what he said. And let me say this in English so you can understand what I'm saying. I have translation. No, I know you have translation, but I just want to make sure you get it right. There will come a day that we will see far more radical extremists and terrorists coming out of Europe because of lack of decision making, trying to be politically correct or assuming that they know the Middle East and they know Islam and they know the others far better than we do. And I'm sorry, but that's pure ignorance. So that was Abdullah bin Zayed. That was the foreign minister of the UAE and he reposted his message and he said, I told you so. Yeah, he tried to warn us, man. Like the, this is where you have to start teasing this stuff out. You can't just lump and say, in my worldview and just say that this is all an immigration problem. You have to understand why the immigration, why immigration became a problem in the first place and not just the economic side of it, but the ideological side. But it is pretty wild that this guy tried to say, listen, you guys are going to be too soft on this shit. Like you got to hammer this down and we're over here. We know we live this every day and we understand how this can break bad. And so we've got ways of dealing with it. If you guys are soft on this, it's going to eat you alive. And here we go. How was he able to predict this? This theory says it's because Europe wanted more to appear like they were doing the right thing by being tolerant of everyone. I wish it were that. I wish it were just, we want to appear tolerant. I think this is guilt. I think this is a loss of national pride. I think this is telling kids, remember the whole idea of the long march for the institutions began in France. Literally French intellectuals wrote this whole idea. You got to take over the education system. You got to take over all the institutions. You've got to teach people a totally different message. Very anti-capitalist, very socialist, very communist, very much opposed to what they would call imperialism. And so now you've for decades and decades and decades taught kids to hate their own country. And guess what? You teach kids to hate their own country. They're going to fucking hate their country. And if their parents came from somewhere else and so they're not even able to help imbue them with the sense of French identity or European identity. And then in their own institutions, they're told nothing but a guilt narrative. Now, why would they care about their country? Why wouldn't they hate it? And of course they are. And this is where people have to understand a lot of the people on the streets are second and third generation. These are French people. They're not ethnically European but they're French people at that point. They grew up in France. They did not grow up anywhere else. They were not born anywhere else. And so it becomes, what are you teaching your students? What are you reinforcing in your kids? What are you tolerating as a society? Do you just let people live in these crazy ass enclaves where they're not even integrating at all? Like the choices are obviously stupid on their face. Hence my man back in 2017 able to call a shot. Rather than structuring their immigration policies through the concept of integration. And this gets very interesting but integration is basically when you don't just live in that country. You also learn the language. You work. You follow the laws. And you know the basic values of the place you sort of move to. Now the thing about integration is that it doesn't happen because people want it to. You gotta push it. It happens because they don't have a choice. I hate to say this. And I know this from experience because when my parents came to the US we did not know anyone. I didn't even speak English but nobody around us really spoke Russian. So I had to learn the language because I had no other way to make friends. It was the only way for me to understand my teachers and to actually function. But if we moved somewhere else that is completely different would I have learned the language as fast? Like for example there's a neighborhood in New York called Brighton Beach where you could live your whole life speaking only Russian with Russian grocery stores and Russian restaurants and Russian everything. If we made a life there instead would I have learned as quickly? I probably wouldn't have because I wouldn't have to. That's what happened in a lot of these European cities. They started to form what are called enclaves. Yeah I saw this. I think I've told this story before but I bumped into a guy in Tokyo who was I think he was British and he had lived in Tokyo for 19 years and I was like oh how good is your Japanese? He's like I don't speak Japanese. I only speak English. And I was like whoa that's wild. So this is like a natural impulse that people don't find themselves in a situation where they have to adapt. A lot of them won't. It's called parallel societies where their old culture got stronger which means the next generation grew up sort of stuck between the two worlds. And sometimes when these cultures live side by side they could have a really hard time mixing and that's why you get resentment, rivalry and eventually conflict. And if you've got all the freebies in the world and you think yeah I'm going to take advantage of the system because I don't care about it's not my system then you don't get what you see in the Nordic countries where you have this big social safety net and everybody feels good about it which is why they're having an immigration crisis because they're set up for a homogenous society that's high trust where everybody has the expectation you won't stay on the government dole very long because you know all the rest of us are paying for you. But when you've got people coming from somewhere else and they don't give a shit they want you to pay for it. Now you've got a problem. Now obviously the U.S. has these enclaves as well. Places like Little Italy, Chinatown, Brighton Beach. But the reason that the U.S. is able to have its immigrants integrate is because here in the U.S. you have to work to survive and work forces you to integrate because you need the language to get the job and the job to get the money. But in a country with a generous welfare state that pressure to integrate is much weaker. If you can move into an enclave, apply for welfare then you might not need a job. You just get paid to live there. And some European countries started to realize that a little too late. That is why Denmark, for example, passed what was originally called a ghetto law which required young kids in certain neighborhoods to attend daycare where they have to learn Danish language and values. Italy just introduced a cap on how many foreign students could be in a single classroom which ironically is one of the things that the students in Milan were protesting about. The reality is if you don't then you're just going to turn the school system into another version of the ghetto. This by the way was predicted a long time ago. People like Karl Popper explained this problem back in 1945. He called it the paradox of tolerance where if a society is tolerant without any limits it eventually gets taken over by the people who are not tolerant at all. So that is theory number two. Europe brought in people to save its economy, did not require them to integrate and then couldn't bring itself to enforce its own rules because it cared more about appearing tolerant. And now it's suffering the consequences. And getting re-elected. Okay, so here's theory number three and here's where it starts to get a lot darker. Theory three says that what's happening in Europe is not an accident and that all of this is going according to plan. Why? Well, it's because if immigration was supposed to save Europe's economy and the evidence clearly shows that it has not worked the way that it was promised then why does it keep on going? Why doesn't anyone just change the course? And this theory says it's because it is working perfectly for the people at the very top. They get the benefits and everyone else gets to pay the cost. How does that work? Who benefits from mass immigration? Well, first it is big business because immigrants tend to lead to lower overall incomes and this has actually happened before. After World War II Germany's economy was booming and it ran out of workers. So in the 1950s it started inviting what it called guest workers from Italy, Greece and eventually Turkey and the plan was they would work for a couple years and then go home but a lot of them stayed. They brought their families and today Germany has one of the biggest Turkish communities in the world. It's wild. When you look at the actual inflows of immigrants into Germany it isn't the countries you're expecting. It's not a bunch of Muslim countries. It is a bunch of other like European, Eastern European countries but that still creates that tension with the citizens of Germany. It's not like being from Albania is the same as being from Germany and so you get the tension building up in the society if you don't force the integration. This is why I know I've said this a gazillion times but if you get confused and you think this is a race problem you're going to be in trouble. This has nothing to do with that. It has to do with the value system. If the value systems don't align, we don't believe in the same things, we don't treat the state the same, we don't have a high trust between each other, we're going to have a problem. could fuel Germany's next economic miracle. Why would a car company care about immigration? Well, it's because more workers means cheaper labor, aka cheaper input costs. More people competing for the same jobs keeps wages down. It's really short-sighted. That is somebody that doesn't understand what is it gonna take to get somebody up to speed, somebody that's fleeing a situation. Are they likely to have the education that you need, or are they coming from a destabilized region where they might not have been getting the level of education that you're looking for? This is why the difference between being very selective about who you bring into the country to fill your immigrant quotas, meaning, because you have birth population declining, and just doing it just wide open borders, you're gonna get very different results. And who pays for that, right? It's not the CEO. It is the factory worker, the delivery driver, the cleaner, the people competing for all of these jobs. Now, the second player that benefits from this is the politician. And that's because new citizens become new voters, and voters allow them to stay in power. In France, polls have shown Muslim voters backing the far left party by huge margins. What a shock. So it's no surprise that the same party is also supporting these protests. This is why they talk about the Red-Green Alliance. So it is a time-tested, mother-approved situation where people on the left team up with the Muslim coalition, and then you end up running into trouble because those two don't actually share values. They were partners of convenience in the beginning, and then they end up having a split once they come to power. So yeah, it is not, shouldn't be confusing to anybody why that ends up being. It's basically using tolerance against a country. It's like, hey, you've gotta come and accept our beliefs and our way of life, and then once you're in power, they want to. Some, let's be very clear, not all, maybe not even most, but enough people that want to see that religion's growing power represented in politics becomes a problem. Now, the third beneficiary is the ideologues, right? There's a concept called luxury belief, which is when you believe something that looks and sounds good, but costs you nothing because someone else pays for it. A politician in Paris can champion for open borders, and it costs them nothing. And they no longer have to feel guilty about France's imperialism. They don't face any of the consequences because they are not living in the neighborhoods that change. They don't send their kids to the overcrowded schools. They are not competing for those low-wage jobs. So the people who end up paying the luxury belief are the working class people. Now, the fourth beneficiary to this is the central planners because chaos is always useful. Every riot is a reason to expand their powers and to add surveillance and to eventually restrict what people can say. And once those powers exist, it is really hard to make them go away. Also, Europe just loves that shit, man. Remember, these are the guys that want to just clamp down on free speech. This is why we had that whole thing where JD Vance went over there to talk about, hey, guys, listen, we're not going to allow you to be clamping down on the platforms, the social media platforms, with this kind of anti-free speech stuff. We see this very differently than you. And that was a big deal in the beginning. We'll see over time. I have a feeling that they're going to keep clamping down. And we have seen this all before. This is the K-shaped economy. The benefits flow up to the top, and the costs flow down to everybody else. This footage really is crazy. We privatize the gains and socialize the losses. It's cheap labor for the owners, but wage pressure for the workers. There's moral credit for the elites, but the consequences for the neighborhoods. There's votes for the political class and the parties, but it's the crime for the people who live there. So it's heads I win, tails you lose kind of a thing. So that is theory number three. It's not necessarily that Europe's leaders are too stupid to see the problem. It's that the people with the power to fix this don't have any incentive to fix it because they are the ones who benefit and profit from it. The fourth theory says that what we're watching is a late-stage capitalism. Now, this is going to be one of the most complex theories here, but it ties a lot of incentives together because all of these systems of control that have perfected extraction are now in their perfect form. For example, we have perfected the algorithms to extract the maximum attention from you, the viewer, and the corporations have perfected the extraction of your health, your time, your money, your attention, everything. Now, credit to Simon Dixon, where he describes this power structure of the world, which is the financial industrial complex, the military industrial complex, and the technological industrial complex. Our boyfriend of the show. If you haven't seen the interviews, we've done two with him. Check him out, make fake tick. These are the three biggest groups of power that all make money in different ways. And here's what he said about Europe. His argument is that for decades, the military industrial complex made huge profits from the forever war model in the Middle East. We'll sell you all the weapons you need, make a ton of money doing it. You'll blow up a bunch of shit with the weapons that we sell you. Then we'll come in and fix everything. That is how they use the destruction of your entire society, basically, all of your cities, and then profit off of rebuilding it all. A model is coming to an end because soon we'll have AI and robots. So the question is, where does the money go next? Well, we can still break your buildings. For now, it is unwinding into the military industrial complex. See, in 2025, NATO countries agreed to increase defense spending from 2% of GDP to 5% of GDP by 2035. That is a massive swing. How are they gonna pay for all that? It's the same concept. You privatize the gains and you socialize the losses to the public. France, for example, is cutting pensions. By the way, he's talking about inflation. So, hey, if it works, great, all's well. And if it doesn't, then we're just going to print the money and you guys are gonna eat it in terms of inflation. Schools and all these different government aspects. Every category gets squeezed except defense spending. And remember, they haven't balanced the budget since 1974. So they have been running this with extreme prejudice for a very long time. And because of that, the real winners are companies like Rheinmetall, which is Germany's biggest weapons manufacturer. Its stock was trading at around $100 the day before Russia invaded Ukraine. And then three years later, it was around $1,000. 10X return, right? Simon Dixon believes that Europe is one of the testing grounds for a privatized police and surveillance state. And here's an example, by the way. Before the 2024 Olympics, France was the first country in the European Union to legalize AI-powered video surveillance. There's cameras that analyze people's movements and suspicious behavior. Andrew Bustamante has talked a lot about how France is really the intelligence agency you need to look out for, which is wild. It was supposed to be temporary just for the Olympics, but then it got extended. And now the French government wants to keep it going until 2030. Remember, from that third theory, every crisis is a reason to expand surveillance and centralize power. And Simon's warning is that whatever gets tested in Europe eventually comes home to the United States. And where it gets really dark is Simon argues that the civil unrest itself was created on purpose. You might've even seen videos floating around on Twitter where it looks suspiciously manufactured. Man, if you haven't seen the footage of the pallets of bottles being dropped off, it's crazy. And you saw the same thing happening in the US. There's no doubt there's a lot of coordination behind the scenes. It's one of the things that needs to be investigated both in France and here in the US. Where is the money coming from? Now, we know this because it has happened before. There was something called Operation Gladio. During the Cold War, NATO secretly set up what were called stay-behind armies across Western Europe. And the idea was that if the Soviet Union invaded, then these secret groups would fight back from behind enemy lines. The Italian Prime Minister publicly admitted it in 1990 and the European Parliament condemned it that same year. But in Italy, investigations connected some people in that world to far-right terrorists that were behind the bombings that were blamed on the left. And this was during a period known as the strategy of tension. The idea was that if people were scared enough, they would beg their governments for more security and more control. And Simon's claim is that those networks never really came home. Yeah, because it's a psychological principle of, okay, we're the elites. We can coordinate and communicate. We can do false flag operations, whatever we need to do to keep people confused, scared enough so that we can stay in power. It is really distressing that that's how our minds work, but that's how our minds work. This is, of course, speculation. There's no evidence for this publicly, but history shows that Western governments have used manufactured chaos before. And why they'd want chaos is because, once again, we're in the middle of this transition from a world run by the United States to a world that's run by different regional powers. And transitions like that require huge repricing events, basically a crash. When asset prices crash, the average person has to sell what they own at a loss. They lose their stock portfolios, they lose their savings, and who buys them are the people at the top. Simon Dixon calls this pricing the average person out of ownership and moving them into a lease-based economy. It is pretty wild that Klaus Schwab just said it right in public. You'll own nothing and you'll be happy. It's wild. You rent everything and you own nothing, while all the assets concentrate into fewer and fewer hands. And according to him, the Strait of Hormuz and the civil unrest are central to how all of this happens. And while it's happening, the FIC, the MIC, and the TIC, those three power structures, they are making money from extracting the real wealth and resources. So that is theory number four. It's pretty dark. Basically, it's a controlled for-profit demolition as a business model, because war makes money for the weapons makers, financed by the banks, and fear justifies the surveillance for the tech companies, and the crash transfers the assets to the big players and the losses to the governments, aka you, the taxpayer. Bro, so I think in the final analysis, it's really gonna be all of these things put together, because the reality is that is exactly how inflation works. That is exactly how people have been getting priced out, such that we get to the point where you've got these big corporations like BlackRock that essentially own everything. People are renting because they're trying to keep their head above water. It is a game where you are forcing people out of ownership, which is the only way for them to protect themselves against inflation, deeper into the system where you can inflate them away at any point. It's darkly sinister, and given that it required certain regulations to be passed, central banks to be built, this was not an accident. This was definitely done on purpose. The fifth theory is what people are calling the Agenda 2030 endgame. Now, I made a whole video about this you can watch, but there was an evolutionary biologist, Brett Weinstein, who recently explained where he thinks all of this is going. We are useless eaters from the point of view of our overlords. That's dark. If we are necessary because they can't get their plumbing to work, they have a reason to keep us around. At the moment, the immigration crisis across the West looks like the replacement of a population of people who are attached to the idea that they have things like rights with a bunch of people who don't have a long history of having rights. They're going, if they have not already, they are going to settle on the idea that we are unnecessary and that they are morally justified in taking care of the issue somehow. I think he's kind of conflating two things here. So you've got the immigration debate. So sure, we're getting people from countries that don't have as much freedom as America, that's for sure. Getting people that don't have as much freedom as Europeans, sure. But I think the part that he isn't thinking about is, okay, if he has said somewhere that I haven't heard, okay, the Muslim thing, that's a red herring. Nobody can pay attention to that because that, I would say, is an argument for people who believe that they are very much under a god and that understanding them as a nation state would be a very inappropriate way to try to think about them. So now he may have said, oh yeah, yeah, yeah, this isn't about Muslim immigration at all. But people that are indexing on Muslim immigration, I think that'd be the wrong way to think about it. This is not just people inflowing from countries that are not used to having freedom and therefore will accept government over lordship, if you will. I think that it's something different. I think there, they really are just going for what is the populace that's going to vote for me? What is somebody that's going to be cheap labor? So you've got especially the right being deeply concerned about the cheap labor of it all, the economic impact, and then people on the left knowing that ideologically they're gonna vote for me on the free stuff side. So this feels slightly different. Now, the other thing that he's putting on the table is our overlords consider us, what do you say, useless eaters. When I look at the climate emergency, that really does start to feel accurate for the way that they have mentally mapped the world, that they really do believe that fewer people would be better. And so you have two different things that are coalescing that may feed into each other like a rogue wave where it gets worse because of the presence of both of them. But I do think that they are actually two distinctly different phenomena that need to be teased out if you wanna make sense of what is actually happening before your eyes. So yeah, climate alarmism, making poor energy policy decisions like they have. have in Europe is its own economic and lifestyle disaster, and then if they're putting intellectual pressure on people to not have as many kids, trying to make it seem like the world is so dire, why would you ever have kids now, not doing the things they might be able to do to incentivize children, which will be far less economic incentives, far more cultural incentives, then you end up in this position where they're not having as many kids, that's great for somebody who's worried about the planet, like yay, fewer kids, we're bad for the planet, this is wonderful, and then feeds into when you start bringing in a replacement population, feels good to the people that feel tolerant and guilty about the way that their country has acted historically, and so you get both of them essentially responding positively to the same thing, but it is two different phenomena. I just think that's where this goes in inevitably. So his argument is that right now, the people at the very top need us for about the next five minutes, he says. They need people to drive their trucks, to grow their food, to fix their plumbing, but what happens when AI and humanoid robots can do every one of those jobs better and cheaper? Once ordinary people will not be needed, there is nothing stopping the people at the top from deciding they would be better off without us. Yeah, pigs to the slaughter, exactly, and hey Gen Z, that's your future if you're not very careful. I'd love him to be explicit, I don't know if in the bigger interview he says more what he means. I doubt he's saying that they're going to outright kill people. I assume what he means is something along the lines of they're going to continue to disincentivize people, even if only culturally, intellectually, to have fewer children and that the populace will just sort of die out over time. I don't think he intends to insinuate that anybody's going to take out their own people, which I certainly do not think is what's going to happen. I think they'll just continue to follow their incentive structure, which will be non-pro children anyway, and so you're going to see populations continue to decline. The time to fight is now because you won't be able to fight if this stuff is deployed at scale and you can be debanked in an instant or you can have somebody, you know, if you become a problem, somebody can create the evidence that you did something you didn't do and lock you up. Yeah, they're not going to do that at scale, but sure, they'll do it to try to scare people, that's for sure. There's another story that makes this, I think, feel less crazy, which is that there was actually a writer named Douglas Rushkoff who studies technology and the future, and he was apparently paid once to give a talk to a small group of billionaires, and he thought it'd be about investing, but instead they spent the whole time asking him about their bunkers. I was supposed to do a talk and it turned out to be just five billionaires who wanted advice on their doomsday bunkers. It became this conversation about, you know, how do I maintain control of my Navy SEAL security force after my Bitcoin's not worth anything, you know? That's actually a good question. When I first heard this, I was like, yeah, how would you? What would you have to do? Not because I have a bunker, I don't, but I just thought, wow, that really is an interesting question that everybody that runs a country or is a dictator has to contend with. Very quickly, the people with the guns realize, hey, I could turn those guns on the guy that originally hired me once they can't pay me anymore. This is literally the strategy that the US is running in Iran. They're hoping that the soldiers end up turning against their leadership because they're not able to pay them anymore. It's a pretty important question for people in that situation. And the interesting thing is that I use that story as a springboard to look at this kind of tech bro billionaire Silicon Valley mindset. So that is theory number five. Agenda 2030 is the public version. That's kind of the nice sounding one for the people that aren't paying too close of attention. But the real version of it is much more intentional. Now, if you made it this far and you did not fall asleep, congratulations. Here's my personal thoughts on all of these theories. I think there's truth in all of them. I think that's true. A lot of people hear this kind of stuff and they think it's crazy, right? It's fear mongering. But I don't think it is. When you look around the world, you can already see the culling of the herd, so to speak. I mean, this is the most disruptive time, certainly in any of our lifetimes since the Industrial Revolution, probably. Obviously, the world wars would have been just psychotically disruptive. But when you throw AI into the mix, it really is just getting crazy. You've got a totally destabilized world order being layered on top as debt is hitting a wall. As you have AI coming on board, it's pretty unprecedented. I'll say for now, probably only post-World War II, but man, it's been a minute since things were this dramatic. It's in progress. We have food that makes us sicker because sick people are profitable. That leads to forever customers for the pharmaceutical industry, and forever customers are very profitable. We have an education system that's failing us. There's division on every front imaginable, fueled by the algorithms which curate our perfect little world. Civil War is also the most effortless way to make money while the herd culls itself because it keeps us fighting each other instead of seeing the real problem. We have things like financial repression. We have inflation eating away at everyone's savings while the people who own the real resources get richer. That leads to less people being born, naturally. This is all provable. This is not a conspiracy theory. There is, in fact, a shadowy room full of elites where this gets decided. It's the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. But even if it's not where this gets decided, then all of this is basically late-stage capitalism, driven all by incentive. It's like— I'm going to need him to explain what he means by late-stage capitalism. When he first said it, he was talking about the mcvick tick, the strip mining of the assets. I don't consider that late-stage capitalism. The thing that I don't hear anybody talk about is maybe late-stage investing. It feels more like that to me, where you get to the point where everything is turned into a casino. You can bet for and against. You can put pressure on a company by shorting it. That does get pretty gross. As you start over-financializing everything, as you send your jobs overseas and your entire economy becomes the upside of the K, and then just whatever support people need locally for those people, that gets pretty bad. That we are going to have to solve for. But it isn't a part of capitalism itself. It is a part of how far people go to optimize global movements of capital and people. Without globalization, you don't end up here, which is why I don't think that this is a signature of capitalism itself. I think it's more a signature of globalism. Capitalism is free markets. Capitalism is, I can aggregate capital and do something with it that I would otherwise not be able to do. AI, first of all, I think is going to disaggregate capital and maybe the single most destructive force of capitalism we've ever seen. But anyway, that risks being its own video. This to me does not feel like late-stage capitalism. I think people are mashing something together that doesn't make sense. In the same way that they look at the government guaranteeing student loans, and they somehow call that a failure of capitalism, that is socialism taking over your government. Charlie Munger once said, show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome. The incentive is profit. It's an all-out game of thrones. And I know that sounds really depressing, and here's how I try to stay sane through all of it. At the end of the day, I think it's almost human nature doing what it does best. This goes deep into the realm of psychology, but it's inherently within us to systematically enslave and subordinate ourselves. Goddamn. And other people, by the way, if you're a student of history out there, it's crazy. It's crazy, but humans are wild. So it stands to reason that at the end of this game of capitalism and extraction, it inevitably leads us to a place where we have a handful of winners that control most of the world's resources and the rest of the world, which never will. At its basic form, this is a game of incentives played out to its most logical conclusion. All of life is a game of incentives. Full stop. But the good news is I think you're a player too, right? And almost everything they- Andre believes in us all, everybody. Let's go. Profit from is something that I think you can take back. If the incentive in healthcare is to profit from your health, then no- He means sickness, but yes, get healthy. And own your health, cook your own food, move your body, read the labels. None of them can sell you a lifetime of prescriptions if you don't need them. They profit from a broken education system, so educate yourself. Facts in the age of the internet and the AI, man, you don't have to be bamboozled. Now kids, it's like a whole different thing and that's why it gets scary, but parents, please help your kids out. Know that when you send them to school, it gets dicey at best. Don't let them indoctrinate you and your family. Everything you need to learn is free. You just watched a 30-minute video about all of this for free. They profit from your attention, right? The algorithm wants us scared, angry, and divided. And every time you notice that and you maybe close the app, you take back some of that control. They profit from division, so don't fall into the basic narratives. Don't spend your life and energy for their profit. If the plan is you'll own nothing and be happy, then the most rebellious thing I can do is own something, right? Like the assets that can't be printed or inflated away or frozen. So don't forget, you're a player in this game. You just have to know that there is a game and you have to know how to play it. Very well said. All right, look, Andrzej is coming in hot every time. If you guys haven't already, be sure to subscribe. He is dope. I love that guy, putting out great videos. This all started from France. What the hell is going on in France? What's going on in the broader Europe? I think he's right. I think it's a little bit of all of the different things. And when you understand how the different incentive structures pull in this very distressing direction, you can, at a minimum, take back the power for yourself. He's right about that. Stay strong, my friends, and all will be well. We may not be able to save society, but we can certainly save ourselves. Let's talk about a pattern that is guaranteed to be killing your progress. You know what you need to do. You need consistent nutrition. We all do. You need vitamins, probiotics, greens. 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