Debt Spiral or NEW Golden Age? Super Bowl Insider Trading, Booming Token Budgets, Ferrari's New EV

All right, everybody. Welcome back to All right, everybody. Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world, the the number one podcast in the world, the the number one podcast in the world, the all-in podcast. With me again, the core all-in podcast. With me again, the core all-in podcast. With me again, the core 4, the original quartet, David Sachs, 4, the original quartet, David Sachs, 4, the original quartet, David Sachs, David Friedberg, Chimath Polyhapatia. David Friedberg, Chimath Polyhapatia. David Friedberg, Chimath Polyhapatia. I'm Jason Calakanis, and we have a very I'm Jason Calakanis, and we have a very I'm Jason Calakanis, and we have a very full docket today. All right, topic one, full docket today. All right, topic one, full docket today. All right, topic one, gentlemen. AI acceleration. It was a big gentlemen. AI acceleration. It was a big gentlemen. AI acceleration. It was a big week for AI. New study published on week for AI. New study published on week for AI. New study published on Monday, February 9th, in the HBR, Monday, February 9th, in the HBR, Monday, February 9th, in the HBR, Harvard Business Review, suggesting that Harvard Business Review, suggesting that Harvard Business Review, suggesting that AI tools intensify work but do not AI tools intensify work but do not AI tools intensify work but do not reduce it. Two UC Berkeley researchers reduce it. Two UC Berkeley researchers reduce it. Two UC Berkeley researchers spent eight months embedded at a 200 spent eight months embedded at a 200 spent eight months embedded at a 200 person tech company. So, this is one person tech company. So, this is one person tech company. So, this is one company's experience. What they found, company's experience. What they found, company's experience. What they found, employees who use AI worked at a faster employees who use AI worked at a faster employees who use AI worked at a faster pace, took a broader scope of tasks, and pace, took a broader scope of tasks, and pace, took a broader scope of tasks, and extended work into more hours of the extended work into more hours of the extended work into more hours of the day. workers reported feeling more day. workers reported feeling more day. workers reported feeling more productive, but they also felt a little productive, but they also felt a little productive, but they also felt a little more stress and burnout. Saxs, your your more stress and burnout. Saxs, your your more stress and burnout. Saxs, your your hot take here, your quick take on this hot take here, your quick take on this hot take here, your quick take on this study. Obviously, it's just uh one study. Obviously, it's just uh one study. Obviously, it's just uh one company, but it does track, I think, company, but it does track, I think, company, but it does track, I think, some of my experiences. some of my experiences. some of my experiences. >> All right. Well, a few points here. >> All right. Well, a few points here. >> All right. Well, a few points here. Number one, as you may recall on the Number one, as you may recall on the Number one, as you may recall on the prediction show for this year, my most prediction show for this year, my most prediction show for this year, my most contrarian belief is that AI would contrarian belief is that AI would contrarian belief is that AI would increase demand for knowledge workers, increase demand for knowledge workers, increase demand for knowledge workers, not put them out of business. And I not put them out of business. And I not put them out of business. And I think you see in this UC Berkeley study, think you see in this UC Berkeley study, think you see in this UC Berkeley study, the reason why that might be the case is the reason why that might be the case is the reason why that might be the case is because the employees who use these because the employees who use these because the employees who use these tools, like you said, they worked tools, like you said, they worked tools, like you said, they worked faster. They took on a broader scope of faster. They took on a broader scope of faster. They took on a broader scope of task. They actually ended up working task. They actually ended up working task. They actually ended up working more hours in the day. So they did more more hours in the day. So they did more more hours in the day. So they did more work, not less, and even more effort work, not less, and even more effort work, not less, and even more effort rather than less. Not because they were rather than less. Not because they were rather than less. Not because they were required to, but just because they were required to, but just because they were required to, but just because they were more motivated. And I think they were more motivated. And I think they were more motivated. And I think they were more motivated because their work was more motivated because their work was more motivated because their work was getting upleveled, right? They're kind getting upleveled, right? They're kind getting upleveled, right? They're kind of able to offload of able to offload of able to offload uh more menial tasks to AI and it made uh more menial tasks to AI and it made uh more menial tasks to AI and it made their work more purposeful and their work more purposeful and their work more purposeful and meaningful. So I think we're kind of meaningful. So I think we're kind of meaningful. So I think we're kind of moving from what some people I think moving from what some people I think moving from what some people I think maybe Jensen has called um taskbased maybe Jensen has called um taskbased maybe Jensen has called um taskbased jobs to purpose-based jobs. And I think jobs to purpose-based jobs. And I think jobs to purpose-based jobs. And I think a key skill of employees is going to be a key skill of employees is going to be a key skill of employees is going to be the ability to structure work for the ability to structure work for the ability to structure work for themselves and their AI agents. And the themselves and their AI agents. And the themselves and their AI agents. And the employees who can do that are going to employees who can do that are going to employees who can do that are going to be far more productive than those who be far more productive than those who be far more productive than those who can't. That kind of brings me to point can't. That kind of brings me to point can't. That kind of brings me to point number two, which is that I think number two, which is that I think number two, which is that I think there's a tremendous opportunity this there's a tremendous opportunity this there's a tremendous opportunity this year for employees who are early year for employees who are early year for employees who are early adopters of these tools, who are, you adopters of these tools, who are, you adopters of these tools, who are, you know, so-called AI natives, to know, so-called AI natives, to know, so-called AI natives, to demonstrate their value to their demonstrate their value to their demonstrate their value to their employers. They're going to be able to employers. They're going to be able to employers. They're going to be able to get a lot more done. They're going to get a lot more done. They're going to get a lot more done. They're going to appear to have superpowers. They're appear to have superpowers. They're appear to have superpowers. They're going to be the people in meetings who going to be the people in meetings who going to be the people in meetings who can take an assignment that would have can take an assignment that would have can take an assignment that would have taken days before and get it done in 2 taken days before and get it done in 2 taken days before and get it done in 2 hours. whether it's a presentation or a hours. whether it's a presentation or a hours. whether it's a presentation or a spreadsheet, people are going to be spreadsheet, people are going to be spreadsheet, people are going to be shocked at how quickly they can get shocked at how quickly they can get shocked at how quickly they can get these things done because they're going these things done because they're going these things done because they're going to be fasile at working with AI. So, I to be fasile at working with AI. So, I to be fasile at working with AI. So, I think there's a big opportunity there. think there's a big opportunity there. think there's a big opportunity there. And there was an article that went viral And there was an article that went viral And there was an article that went viral this week by Matt Schumer called this week by Matt Schumer called this week by Matt Schumer called something big is happening where he something big is happening where he something big is happening where he talked about this career opportunity talked about this career opportunity talked about this career opportunity that's going to be available to kind of that's going to be available to kind of that's going to be available to kind of AI early adopters. And I think that AI early adopters. And I think that AI early adopters. And I think that brings me to my third point, which is I brings me to my third point, which is I brings me to my third point, which is I think that you're going to see massive think that you're going to see massive think that you're going to see massive enterprise adoption of AI, not just chat enterprise adoption of AI, not just chat enterprise adoption of AI, not just chat bots, but agents this year. But I think bots, but agents this year. But I think bots, but agents this year. But I think it's going to be driven by the bottom it's going to be driven by the bottom it's going to be driven by the bottom up. It's going to be driven by these up. It's going to be driven by these up. It's going to be driven by these early adopter employees coming in to early adopter employees coming in to early adopter employees coming in to their workplaces, bringing in these kind their workplaces, bringing in these kind their workplaces, bringing in these kind of consumerized AI tools, start using of consumerized AI tools, start using of consumerized AI tools, start using them at work as opposed to top- down them at work as opposed to top- down them at work as opposed to top- down initiatives. I think there's a lot of initiatives. I think there's a lot of initiatives. I think there's a lot of top- down company transformation top- down company transformation top- down company transformation initiatives that are happening in large initiatives that are happening in large initiatives that are happening in large enterprises where the CEO has tasked a enterprises where the CEO has tasked a enterprises where the CEO has tasked a team with figuring out how to use AI, team with figuring out how to use AI, team with figuring out how to use AI, how to transform their business with AI. how to transform their business with AI. how to transform their business with AI. Those initiatives are going to take Those initiatives are going to take Those initiatives are going to take months. They're going to be studying months. They're going to be studying months. They're going to be studying what tools they should use. They're what tools they should use. They're what tools they should use. They're going to be doing RFPs. And I think it's going to be doing RFPs. And I think it's going to be doing RFPs. And I think it's ultimately going to be very slow. And ultimately going to be very slow. And ultimately going to be very slow. And while those things are trudging along, I while those things are trudging along, I while those things are trudging along, I think there's going to be these early think there's going to be these early think there's going to be these early adopter employees who just make the adopter employees who just make the adopter employees who just make the transformation of Feta Comple by again transformation of Feta Comple by again transformation of Feta Comple by again bringing these tools into the workplace bringing these tools into the workplace bringing these tools into the workplace from the bottom up. So, I think in the from the bottom up. So, I think in the from the bottom up. So, I think in the same way that you saw consumerized SAS same way that you saw consumerized SAS same way that you saw consumerized SAS tools spread from the bottom up in tools spread from the bottom up in tools spread from the bottom up in enterprises, I think you're going to see enterprises, I think you're going to see enterprises, I think you're going to see consumerized AI tools spread from the consumerized AI tools spread from the consumerized AI tools spread from the bottom up in enterprises. And I think bottom up in enterprises. And I think bottom up in enterprises. And I think it'll ultimately be one of the big it'll ultimately be one of the big it'll ultimately be one of the big themes this year. themes this year. themes this year. >> Couldn't concur or agree more. Nick, >> Couldn't concur or agree more. Nick, >> Couldn't concur or agree more. Nick, throw up that tweet I did. I I did a throw up that tweet I did. I I did a throw up that tweet I did. I I did a tweet and it got 2 million views. tweet and it got 2 million views. tweet and it got 2 million views. Basically, I said, listen, if you got Basically, I said, listen, if you got Basically, I said, listen, if you got laid off by Amazon or Microsoft over the laid off by Amazon or Microsoft over the laid off by Amazon or Microsoft over the last two years, just learn OpenClaw and last two years, just learn OpenClaw and last two years, just learn OpenClaw and automate your previous job. Show you automate your previous job. Show you automate your previous job. Show you know how to use these tools. go back to know how to use these tools. go back to know how to use these tools. go back to your boss and say, "Hey, I want to come your boss and say, "Hey, I want to come your boss and say, "Hey, I want to come back and automate everything or go to back and automate everything or go to back and automate everything or go to startups." Every startup I know is startups." Every startup I know is startups." Every startup I know is hiring for this position, which is hiring for this position, which is hiring for this position, which is somebody who knows how to build and somebody who knows how to build and somebody who knows how to build and manage agents. There is no job wreck for manage agents. There is no job wreck for manage agents. There is no job wreck for this yet or a title. We should come up this yet or a title. We should come up this yet or a title. We should come up with what this person does, but it it with what this person does, but it it with what this person does, but it it used to be called prompt engineer. It's used to be called prompt engineer. It's used to be called prompt engineer. It's no longer just prompt engineering. It's no longer just prompt engineering. It's no longer just prompt engineering. It's managing and educating and offloading managing and educating and offloading managing and educating and offloading work to an agent and then making sure work to an agent and then making sure work to an agent and then making sure they're actually doing it. And right now they're actually doing it. And right now they're actually doing it. And right now it feels like the people in my it feels like the people in my it feels like the people in my organization have four of them who are organization have four of them who are organization have four of them who are focused on this out of 20. I would say focused on this out of 20. I would say focused on this out of 20. I would say that their leverage is between 10 and that their leverage is between 10 and that their leverage is between 10 and 20x the other 16. So now I'm going down 20x the other 16. So now I'm going down 20x the other 16. So now I'm going down the slope of employees from you know the slope of employees from you know the slope of employees from you know most technical you know to least and most technical you know to least and most technical you know to least and trying to get each one of them to adopt trying to get each one of them to adopt trying to get each one of them to adopt and create an agent for them. We'll pro and create an agent for them. We'll pro and create an agent for them. We'll pro it will probably take six months but it will probably take six months but it will probably take six months but when we do I think our leverage versus a when we do I think our leverage versus a when we do I think our leverage versus a competing firm is going to be 10x. As an competing firm is going to be 10x. As an competing firm is going to be 10x. As an example, in the podcasting space, Sax, example, in the podcasting space, Sax, example, in the podcasting space, Sax, we now have it going through podcasts we now have it going through podcasts we now have it going through podcasts looking for the best moments or you can looking for the best moments or you can looking for the best moments or you can just give it a moment and it will clip just give it a moment and it will clip just give it a moment and it will clip the clip for you and put it in the the clip for you and put it in the the clip for you and put it in the Google Drive. So imagine we were all in, Google Drive. So imagine we were all in, Google Drive. So imagine we were all in, I don't know, our little group chat and I don't know, our little group chat and I don't know, our little group chat and you said, "Oh, from the last episode, you said, "Oh, from the last episode, you said, "Oh, from the last episode, can you get me a clip of minute 3 to can you get me a clip of minute 3 to can you get me a clip of minute 3 to minute 6?" And then it's just on your minute 6?" And then it's just on your minute 6?" And then it's just on your iPhone. It's just in the group chat. iPhone. It's just in the group chat. iPhone. It's just in the group chat. Boom. Nobody has to go find it. It just Boom. Nobody has to go find it. It just Boom. Nobody has to go find it. It just clips it. That's the kind of work it's clips it. That's the kind of work it's clips it. That's the kind of work it's doing. And then we have it looking at doing. And then we have it looking at doing. And then we have it looking at our YouTube stats. We have it looking at our YouTube stats. We have it looking at our YouTube stats. We have it looking at our Instagram or Tik Tok stats and then our Instagram or Tik Tok stats and then our Instagram or Tik Tok stats and then trying to tell us which clips are going trying to tell us which clips are going trying to tell us which clips are going the most viral, which ones have the most the most viral, which ones have the most the most viral, which ones have the most comments and then giving us strategies comments and then giving us strategies comments and then giving us strategies to how to make them go more viral. It's to how to make them go more viral. It's to how to make them go more viral. It's really weird because it's coming up with really weird because it's coming up with really weird because it's coming up with really great suggestions and taking really great suggestions and taking really great suggestions and taking eliminating all the reporting work that eliminating all the reporting work that eliminating all the reporting work that knowledge workers do. Chimat, you have a knowledge workers do. Chimat, you have a knowledge workers do. Chimat, you have a take on this? I know you've deployed the take on this? I know you've deployed the take on this? I know you've deployed the software factory which is I think um you software factory which is I think um you software factory which is I think um you know aligned with obviously this know aligned with obviously this know aligned with obviously this revolution happening in real time. Last revolution happening in real time. Last revolution happening in real time. Last couple of weeks have been pretty big couple of weeks have been pretty big couple of weeks have been pretty big with claude opus 4.6 coming out uh chat with claude opus 4.6 coming out uh chat with claude opus 4.6 coming out uh chat GPT codeex coming out lot of advances GPT codeex coming out lot of advances GPT codeex coming out lot of advances and obviously the open claw revolution and obviously the open claw revolution and obviously the open claw revolution that I've now done seven podcasts on in that I've now done seven podcasts on in that I've now done seven podcasts on in a row. What are your thoughts Jamal? a row. What are your thoughts Jamal? a row. What are your thoughts Jamal? >> I think there are two open questions >> I think there are two open questions >> I think there are two open questions that I find really interesting right that I find really interesting right that I find really interesting right now. The first question now. The first question now. The first question is, I tweeted it this morning, but is on is, I tweeted it this morning, but is on is, I tweeted it this morning, but is on prem the new cloud, prem the new cloud, prem the new cloud, which is weird to think that that could which is weird to think that that could which is weird to think that that could even be possible, but we've spent since even be possible, but we've spent since even be possible, but we've spent since 2008 2008 2008 migrating everything to cloud because migrating everything to cloud because migrating everything to cloud because there were these economies of scale. And there were these economies of scale. And there were these economies of scale. And it created better margin and lower opex it created better margin and lower opex it created better margin and lower opex and lower capex because you could and lower capex because you could and lower capex because you could essentially share infrastructure with essentially share infrastructure with essentially share infrastructure with other companies. And that's how AWS and other companies. And that's how AWS and other companies. And that's how AWS and GCP have built such gargantuan GCP have built such gargantuan GCP have built such gargantuan businesses. businesses. businesses. The counterpoint to that though is that The counterpoint to that though is that The counterpoint to that though is that in the AI revolution, companies I in the AI revolution, companies I in the AI revolution, companies I suspect will be fighting for their suspect will be fighting for their suspect will be fighting for their lives. And I think it's very much lives. And I think it's very much lives. And I think it's very much unclear whether it makes sense for a unclear whether it makes sense for a unclear whether it makes sense for a company to allow the natural leakage of company to allow the natural leakage of company to allow the natural leakage of their edge and their confidential and their edge and their confidential and their edge and their confidential and proprietary information out into the proprietary information out into the proprietary information out into the wild versus the control that they would wild versus the control that they would wild versus the control that they would get if they ran on prim. That's a really get if they ran on prim. That's a really get if they ran on prim. That's a really important question. What do I mean by important question. What do I mean by important question. What do I mean by all that? Once you use these tools, it all that? Once you use these tools, it all that? Once you use these tools, it is very difficult for a company to be is very difficult for a company to be is very difficult for a company to be able to control how their data is used able to control how their data is used able to control how their data is used subsequently thereafter. Meaning if I subsequently thereafter. Meaning if I subsequently thereafter. Meaning if I gave you Jason a PDF of some really gave you Jason a PDF of some really gave you Jason a PDF of some really important strategy document or a important strategy document or a important strategy document or a PowerPoint deck or a really critical PowerPoint deck or a really critical PowerPoint deck or a really critical model and you're interrogating it with model and you're interrogating it with model and you're interrogating it with one of these models. one of these models. one of these models. If you're just using chat GPT the If you're just using chat GPT the If you're just using chat GPT the mainline instance of it you're leaking mainline instance of it you're leaking mainline instance of it you're leaking all of that prompt and response metadata all of that prompt and response metadata all of that prompt and response metadata back to Chat GPT back to Gemini back to back to Chat GPT back to Gemini back to back to Chat GPT back to Gemini back to Claude. And there's nothing a company Claude. And there's nothing a company Claude. And there's nothing a company can do about that. If you're using a set can do about that. If you're using a set can do about that. If you're using a set of agents to act on all that of agents to act on all that of agents to act on all that information, all those agent traces are information, all those agent traces are information, all those agent traces are going back to these model builders. That going back to these model builders. That going back to these model builders. That may or may not be a problem for some, may or may not be a problem for some, may or may not be a problem for some, but I suspect it is a deep problem for but I suspect it is a deep problem for but I suspect it is a deep problem for others and they just haven't uncovered others and they just haven't uncovered others and they just haven't uncovered it yet. When they realize that that is a it yet. When they realize that that is a it yet. When they realize that that is a problem, the enterprise will have to problem, the enterprise will have to problem, the enterprise will have to decide, do I just give up and keep decide, do I just give up and keep decide, do I just give up and keep running all of this stuff in the cloud running all of this stuff in the cloud running all of this stuff in the cloud in a shared experience or do I bear the in a shared experience or do I bear the in a shared experience or do I bear the incremental cost of running this stuff incremental cost of running this stuff incremental cost of running this stuff in a more coordinated manner that I in a more coordinated manner that I in a more coordinated manner that I control on prem and that would be a control on prem and that would be a control on prem and that would be a crazy shift just to completely go back crazy shift just to completely go back crazy shift just to completely go back to where we were 20 and 30 years ago. to where we were 20 and 30 years ago. to where we were 20 and 30 years ago. That's a non so obvious thing that may That's a non so obvious thing that may That's a non so obvious thing that may happen. So that's number one. And then happen. So that's number one. And then happen. So that's number one. And then number two, I also tweeted this. There number two, I also tweeted this. There number two, I also tweeted this. There was this really interesting ruling was this really interesting ruling was this really interesting ruling around what happens inside these cloud around what happens inside these cloud around what happens inside these cloud environments, which was a judge saying environments, which was a judge saying environments, which was a judge saying there is no attorney client privilege there is no attorney client privilege there is no attorney client privilege and confirming that once you start to and confirming that once you start to and confirming that once you start to use those tools, all of that stuff is use those tools, all of that stuff is use those tools, all of that stuff is complete public domain material. If you complete public domain material. If you complete public domain material. If you put these two things together, it put these two things together, it put these two things together, it creates a very interesting set of creates a very interesting set of creates a very interesting set of questions for enterprises. You will need questions for enterprises. You will need questions for enterprises. You will need AI to survive. But if you use the tools AI to survive. But if you use the tools AI to survive. But if you use the tools as they exist today at a public as they exist today at a public as they exist today at a public endpoint, you will give up all control, endpoint, you will give up all control, endpoint, you will give up all control, all security, all confidentiality that all security, all confidentiality that all security, all confidentiality that you today have and the ability to follow you today have and the ability to follow you today have and the ability to follow through and control what your employees through and control what your employees through and control what your employees do with it. The only solution is to have do with it. The only solution is to have do with it. The only solution is to have the pendulum swing all the way back and the pendulum swing all the way back and the pendulum swing all the way back and have private provision networks, which have private provision networks, which have private provision networks, which increases cost, but then if you save a increases cost, but then if you save a increases cost, but then if you save a bunch of money because of AI, maybe it bunch of money because of AI, maybe it bunch of money because of AI, maybe it all balances out. That is the big all balances out. That is the big all balances out. That is the big question that I'm wrestling with right question that I'm wrestling with right question that I'm wrestling with right now. now. now. >> Good insights there. And I have some >> Good insights there. And I have some >> Good insights there. And I have some thoughts on the um onrem because I'm thoughts on the um onrem because I'm thoughts on the um onrem because I'm actually doing it right now. Freeberg, actually doing it right now. Freeberg, actually doing it right now. Freeberg, your thoughts on this moment in time your thoughts on this moment in time your thoughts on this moment in time when we have people uh saying it's when we have people uh saying it's when we have people uh saying it's happening faster and it's become happening faster and it's become happening faster and it's become recursive. Recursive obviously fancy recursive. Recursive obviously fancy recursive. Recursive obviously fancy word for those in the audience who word for those in the audience who word for those in the audience who haven't heard it before. Just these haven't heard it before. Just these haven't heard it before. Just these models and these agents can go out and models and these agents can go out and models and these agents can go out and improve their own work. So after they do improve their own work. So after they do improve their own work. So after they do some work or a job for you, you can have some work or a job for you, you can have some work or a job for you, you can have another agent say, "Hey, here's how to another agent say, "Hey, here's how to another agent say, "Hey, here's how to do it better or go learn these new do it better or go learn these new do it better or go learn these new skills. Go use this skill last 30 days skills. Go use this skill last 30 days skills. Go use this skill last 30 days to go find the last seven days or 30 to go find the last seven days or 30 to go find the last seven days or 30 days of best practices with this tool days of best practices with this tool days of best practices with this tool and make yourself better and do that and make yourself better and do that and make yourself better and do that every night at 1:00 a.m. What are your every night at 1:00 a.m. What are your every night at 1:00 a.m. What are your thoughts, Freedberg, on the moment in thoughts, Freedberg, on the moment in thoughts, Freedberg, on the moment in time we are in right now?" Well, I think time we are in right now?" Well, I think time we are in right now?" Well, I think the thinking historically was that it the thinking historically was that it the thinking historically was that it was going to be about recursive model was going to be about recursive model was going to be about recursive model development where we were going to development where we were going to development where we were going to continuously improve the actual model continuously improve the actual model continuously improve the actual model and we were waiting for a context window and we were waiting for a context window and we were waiting for a context window where you could feed the model back to where you could feed the model back to where you could feed the model back to itself. So, you're effectively itself. So, you're effectively itself. So, you're effectively retraining the model continuously and it retraining the model continuously and it retraining the model continuously and it may be the case that the output is may be the case that the output is may be the case that the output is what's recursive and that turns out is what's recursive and that turns out is what's recursive and that turns out is having the effect that everyone was having the effect that everyone was having the effect that everyone was waiting for. So, it's kind of a waiting for. So, it's kind of a waiting for. So, it's kind of a surprise. I saw a lot of computer surprise. I saw a lot of computer surprise. I saw a lot of computer scientists that have worked in AI for scientists that have worked in AI for scientists that have worked in AI for some time, I think, be a little bit some time, I think, be a little bit some time, I think, be a little bit surprised about this moment that we're surprised about this moment that we're surprised about this moment that we're in that we're seeing such incredible in that we're seeing such incredible in that we're seeing such incredible strides in model performance just by strides in model performance just by strides in model performance just by making the output recursive. So, let's making the output recursive. So, let's making the output recursive. So, let's see how far it goes. Are you still see how far it goes. Are you still see how far it goes. Are you still obsessed with OpenClaw, Jac? I am. We obsessed with OpenClaw, Jac? I am. We obsessed with OpenClaw, Jac? I am. We have now seen that every week 5 to 10% have now seen that every week 5 to 10% have now seen that every week 5 to 10% of the work we're doing inside of our of the work we're doing inside of our of the work we're doing inside of our venture firm is being moved over to venture firm is being moved over to venture firm is being moved over to OpenClaw. We call them replicants. You OpenClaw. We call them replicants. You OpenClaw. We call them replicants. You can think of them as personas. So we now can think of them as personas. So we now can think of them as personas. So we now have three or four of these. Uh we give have three or four of these. Uh we give have three or four of these. Uh we give them a notion account, a Slack account, them a notion account, a Slack account, them a notion account, a Slack account, and we give them a Google Docs account. and we give them a Google Docs account. and we give them a Google Docs account. They have their own email. And I think They have their own email. And I think They have their own email. And I think all of this technology was here all all of this technology was here all all of this technology was here all along. It was really or maybe for the along. It was really or maybe for the along. It was really or maybe for the last 6 months, let's say, really good last 6 months, let's say, really good last 6 months, let's say, really good models out there. But no company would models out there. But no company would models out there. But no company would give the keys to the kingdom to allow give the keys to the kingdom to allow give the keys to the kingdom to allow these agents to actually act on your these agents to actually act on your these agents to actually act on your behalf. Why? because they don't want to behalf. Why? because they don't want to behalf. Why? because they don't want to be responsible if it ships your Bitcoin be responsible if it ships your Bitcoin be responsible if it ships your Bitcoin keys or your passwords to somebody else. keys or your passwords to somebody else. keys or your passwords to somebody else. So, in order to use these, you have to So, in order to use these, you have to So, in order to use these, you have to trust them. And if you trust them and trust them. And if you trust them and trust them. And if you trust them and then you are monitoring them, the then you are monitoring them, the then you are monitoring them, the results are unbelievable. We uh have results are unbelievable. We uh have results are unbelievable. We uh have also to your point Chamath fired up Max also to your point Chamath fired up Max also to your point Chamath fired up Max Studios. We have Kimmy on them. We are Studios. We have Kimmy on them. We are Studios. We have Kimmy on them. We are moving all of the work onto these and moving all of the work onto these and moving all of the work onto these and then they'll use Kimmy for most of their then they'll use Kimmy for most of their then they'll use Kimmy for most of their easy jobs, which is free. Then they will easy jobs, which is free. Then they will easy jobs, which is free. Then they will use claude 4.6 opus to orchestrate use claude 4.6 opus to orchestrate use claude 4.6 opus to orchestrate things. We also now that we have four of things. We also now that we have four of things. We also now that we have four of them freedberg we've created openclaw them freedberg we've created openclaw them freedberg we've created openclaw ultron which is one meta replicant that ultron which is one meta replicant that ultron which is one meta replicant that is managing the other four and it checks is managing the other four and it checks is managing the other four and it checks their work. It talks to them all day their work. It talks to them all day their work. It talks to them all day long about what they're doing and then long about what they're doing and then long about what they're doing and then summarizes it. And we're building skills summarizes it. And we're building skills summarizes it. And we're building skills into each one of these. So one of the into each one of these. So one of the into each one of these. So one of the skills is like doing deep research. One skills is like doing deep research. One skills is like doing deep research. One of the skills is being able to go into of the skills is being able to go into of the skills is being able to go into our sales database which is in pipe our sales database which is in pipe our sales database which is in pipe drive. The gains we're getting I was drive. The gains we're getting I was drive. The gains we're getting I was able to go through everything my Athena able to go through everything my Athena able to go through everything my Athena assistant was doing and I was able to assistant was doing and I was able to assistant was doing and I was able to take about and I know Chimath you have take about and I know Chimath you have take about and I know Chimath you have an Athena assistant too. I was able to an Athena assistant too. I was able to an Athena assistant too. I was able to take maybe 30% of the Athena assistants take maybe 30% of the Athena assistants take maybe 30% of the Athena assistants work and give it to the replicant that work and give it to the replicant that work and give it to the replicant that let the Athena assistant work on higher let the Athena assistant work on higher let the Athena assistant work on higher level stuff. I would say on the average level stuff. I would say on the average level stuff. I would say on the average investment team individual, we now have investment team individual, we now have investment team individual, we now have probably 20% of their work being done by probably 20% of their work being done by probably 20% of their work being done by agents in real time. And the best part agents in real time. And the best part agents in real time. And the best part about it is they don't forget to do about it is they don't forget to do about it is they don't forget to do work. They don't make mistakes. So once work. They don't make mistakes. So once work. They don't make mistakes. So once you put this in, you don't need to have you put this in, you don't need to have you put this in, you don't need to have checklists. They just do it perfectly checklists. They just do it perfectly checklists. They just do it perfectly every single time. every single time. every single time. >> Crazy. >> Crazy. >> Crazy. >> And they work. >> And they work. >> And they work. >> It's nuts, Jamal. So now I'm building >> It's nuts, Jamal. So now I'm building >> It's nuts, Jamal. So now I'm building and I've been talking to Benny awful a and I've been talking to Benny awful a and I've been talking to Benny awful a lot cuz he's got Slackbot. Claude's got lot cuz he's got Slackbot. Claude's got lot cuz he's got Slackbot. Claude's got co-work, but none of them have the keys co-work, but none of them have the keys co-work, but none of them have the keys to the kingdom. So, what I'm doing is to the kingdom. So, what I'm doing is to the kingdom. So, what I'm doing is I'm upgrading to the enterprise version I'm upgrading to the enterprise version I'm upgrading to the enterprise version of Slack. Shamat, you're I think of Slack. Shamat, you're I think of Slack. Shamat, you're I think probably your number two investment in probably your number two investment in probably your number two investment in your career. What an amazing investment your career. What an amazing investment your career. What an amazing investment that was. Um, it's number four. that was. Um, it's number four. that was. Um, it's number four. >> Number four. Okay. Listen, keep >> Number four. Okay. Listen, keep >> Number four. Okay. Listen, keep grinding. Top five investment for you. grinding. Top five investment for you. grinding. Top five investment for you. I'm upgrading to the highest level and I'm upgrading to the highest level and I'm upgrading to the highest level and I'm ingesting every single Slack message I'm ingesting every single Slack message I'm ingesting every single Slack message and then I'm upgrading and giving the and then I'm upgrading and giving the and then I'm upgrading and giving the API key for every single email in our API key for every single email in our API key for every single email in our organization to Ultron. They will know organization to Ultron. They will know organization to Ultron. They will know everything going on in the organization. everything going on in the organization. everything going on in the organization. It is mind-blowing how fast this is It is mind-blowing how fast this is It is mind-blowing how fast this is going. And then finally, just a plug, going. And then finally, just a plug, going. And then finally, just a plug, I'm investing in 10 startups in OpenClaw I'm investing in 10 startups in OpenClaw I'm investing in 10 startups in OpenClaw space, 125K each to come to the space, 125K each to come to the space, 125K each to come to the accelerator. If you're doing work on accelerator. If you're doing work on accelerator. If you're doing work on this openclaw.co, this openclaw.co, this openclaw.co, email me what you're doing cuz we want email me what you're doing cuz we want email me what you're doing cuz we want to invest in in at least a 10 or 20 of to invest in in at least a 10 or 20 of to invest in in at least a 10 or 20 of these companies right now. Uh this is these companies right now. Uh this is these companies right now. Uh this is the 100% focus of our firm. It is the 100% focus of our firm. It is the 100% focus of our firm. It is insane. When do you guys think insane. When do you guys think insane. When do you guys think enterprises have a huge freakout enterprises have a huge freakout enterprises have a huge freakout around all of this and say, "Wow, we're around all of this and say, "Wow, we're around all of this and say, "Wow, we're leaking all of our most important leaking all of our most important leaking all of our most important information out into the wild." But information out into the wild." But information out into the wild." But Sachs, to your point, the industrious Sachs, to your point, the industrious Sachs, to your point, the industrious person trying to get ahead all of a person trying to get ahead all of a person trying to get ahead all of a sudden is using an open endpoint to like sudden is using an open endpoint to like sudden is using an open endpoint to like make a deck better. and somehow all of make a deck better. and somehow all of make a deck better. and somehow all of that stuff is out in the wild. They find that stuff is out in the wild. They find that stuff is out in the wild. They find out people are going to have a freakout out people are going to have a freakout out people are going to have a freakout moment here soon. moment here soon. moment here soon. >> I think there's a big opportunity to >> I think there's a big opportunity to >> I think there's a big opportunity to take something like OpenClaw and make it take something like OpenClaw and make it take something like OpenClaw and make it enterprisegrade and secure and all that enterprisegrade and secure and all that enterprisegrade and secure and all that kind of stuff. One of my partners at kind of stuff. One of my partners at kind of stuff. One of my partners at Craft actually created a new tool called Craft actually created a new tool called Craft actually created a new tool called Lobster Tank, which is a version of Open Lobster Tank, which is a version of Open Lobster Tank, which is a version of Open Claw that's got some enterprise security Claw that's got some enterprise security Claw that's got some enterprise security wrapped around it. wrapped around it. wrapped around it. >> This is what I mean. On prem is back. >> This is what I mean. On prem is back. >> This is what I mean. On prem is back. It's going to happen. It's going to It's going to happen. It's going to It's going to happen. It's going to happen. It's cost savings plus do I want happen. It's cost savings plus do I want happen. It's cost savings plus do I want to give all of the secrets in our to give all of the secrets in our to give all of the secrets in our organization, every piece of organization, every piece of organization, every piece of intellectual property to Sam Alman who's intellectual property to Sam Alman who's intellectual property to Sam Alman who's got to make a billion dollars a year to got to make a billion dollars a year to got to make a billion dollars a year to keep up with his spend, right? He's keep up with his spend, right? He's keep up with his spend, right? He's going to build every application. going to build every application. going to build every application. >> Let's not make it about Sam. Do I, if >> Let's not make it about Sam. Do I, if >> Let's not make it about Sam. Do I, if I'm GEIGO, I'm GEIGO, I'm GEIGO, >> want to have >> want to have >> want to have all of my actuaries all of my actuaries all of my actuaries using all of our proprietary, private, using all of our proprietary, private, using all of our proprietary, private, and confidential data on risk pricing in and confidential data on risk pricing in and confidential data on risk pricing in an open instance of an LLM? The answer an open instance of an LLM? The answer an open instance of an LLM? The answer is no. That's obvious. is no. That's obvious. is no. That's obvious. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> So now the question is how do you adapt >> So now the question is how do you adapt >> So now the question is how do you adapt to that? How do you actually generate to that? How do you actually generate to that? How do you actually generate tokens in that kind of a situation? How tokens in that kind of a situation? How tokens in that kind of a situation? How do you reason in that kind of a do you reason in that kind of a do you reason in that kind of a situation? That is a very expensive situation? That is a very expensive situation? That is a very expensive technical problem. It's not necessarily technical problem. It's not necessarily technical problem. It's not necessarily complicated, but it is technical. That complicated, but it is technical. That complicated, but it is technical. That will bloat the opex because you're going will bloat the opex because you're going will bloat the opex because you're going back to a place that you had said didn't back to a place that you had said didn't back to a place that you had said didn't make sense anymore. It felt very make sense anymore. It felt very make sense anymore. It felt very antiquated if you ever heard a company antiquated if you ever heard a company antiquated if you ever heard a company was on prem. But AI may be the reason was on prem. But AI may be the reason was on prem. But AI may be the reason where you can't afford to be not on where you can't afford to be not on where you can't afford to be not on prem. prem. prem. >> Yeah. And it's it's going to be on your >> Yeah. And it's it's going to be on your >> Yeah. And it's it's going to be on your desktop, too, because one of the desktop, too, because one of the desktop, too, because one of the solutions to this is just giving each solutions to this is just giving each solutions to this is just giving each employee a really powerful employee a really powerful employee a really powerful desktop that is capable of running a desktop that is capable of running a desktop that is capable of running a local large language model, which right local large language model, which right local large language model, which right now takes a Mac studio with 512 gig or now takes a Mac studio with 512 gig or now takes a Mac studio with 512 gig or or daisy chaining two of them. And or daisy chaining two of them. And or daisy chaining two of them. And that's what people are doing. that's what people are doing. that's what people are doing. >> Remember these vax terminals? I think >> Remember these vax terminals? I think >> Remember these vax terminals? I think that you could actually see a resurgence that you could actually see a resurgence that you could actually see a resurgence of that idea. So you have a centralized of that idea. So you have a centralized of that idea. So you have a centralized computer and you have a bunch of dumb computer and you have a bunch of dumb computer and you have a bunch of dumb terminals terminals terminals >> y >> y >> y >> and you have a CLI and so you can >> and you have a CLI and so you can >> and you have a CLI and so you can interact with it that way interact with it that way interact with it that way >> but again it keeps everything inside the >> but again it keeps everything inside the >> but again it keeps everything inside the >> but you could also you could also fire >> but you could also you could also fire >> but you could also you could also fire up your own instance in the cloud and up your own instance in the cloud and up your own instance in the cloud and just run it just run it just run it >> too expensive at scale like for example >> too expensive at scale like for example >> too expensive at scale like for example 8090 is a top 20 customer bedrock 8090 is a top 20 customer bedrock 8090 is a top 20 customer bedrock >> it's too expensive already as it is >> it's too expensive already as it is >> it's too expensive already as it is because of all this overhead because of all this overhead because of all this overhead >> because of their margin >> because of their margin >> because of their margin >> because of all the nonsense that's >> because of all the nonsense that's >> because of all the nonsense that's inside of AWS that you have to pay for inside of AWS that you have to pay for inside of AWS that you have to pay for in order to just get access the bare in order to just get access the bare in order to just get access the bare metal. So then you go to Cororeweave. metal. So then you go to Cororeweave. metal. So then you go to Cororeweave. Okay, fine. But what does Cororeweave Okay, fine. But what does Cororeweave Okay, fine. But what does Cororeweave tell you? They're an excellent business. tell you? They're an excellent business. tell you? They're an excellent business. A, it's all training. B, you have the A, it's all training. B, you have the A, it's all training. B, you have the situation where too much of what you situation where too much of what you situation where too much of what you have has to be guaranteed into the have has to be guaranteed into the have has to be guaranteed into the future because for them, it makes no future because for them, it makes no future because for them, it makes no sense to price it on spot. And if you sense to price it on spot. And if you sense to price it on spot. And if you buy on spot, you just get these surges. buy on spot, you just get these surges. buy on spot, you just get these surges. You can't deal with it. So there is no You can't deal with it. So there is no You can't deal with it. So there is no solution today that makes any sense. solution today that makes any sense. solution today that makes any sense. >> It's absolutely correct, Jam. I'll just >> It's absolutely correct, Jam. I'll just >> It's absolutely correct, Jam. I'll just put some numbers behind it briefly. We put some numbers behind it briefly. We put some numbers behind it briefly. We with our agents hit $300 a day per with our agents hit $300 a day per with our agents hit $300 a day per agent. agent. agent. using the uh Claude API like instantly using the uh Claude API like instantly using the uh Claude API like instantly and that was like doing maybe 10 or 20%. and that was like doing maybe 10 or 20%. and that was like doing maybe 10 or 20%. That's a h 100,000 a year per agent. That's a h 100,000 a year per agent. That's a h 100,000 a year per agent. We're getting to a place where we have We're getting to a place where we have We're getting to a place where we have to basically now say what is the token to basically now say what is the token to basically now say what is the token budget that we're willing to give our budget that we're willing to give our budget that we're willing to give our best devs and then if you aggregate it best devs and then if you aggregate it best devs and then if you aggregate it across all people you can clearly see a across all people you can clearly see a across all people you can clearly see a trend where you're like well hold on a trend where you're like well hold on a trend where you're like well hold on a second now they need to be at least 2x second now they need to be at least 2x second now they need to be at least 2x as productive as another employee that as productive as another employee that as productive as another employee that is actively happening inside my business is actively happening inside my business is actively happening inside my business because otherwise I'll run out of money. because otherwise I'll run out of money. because otherwise I'll run out of money. Yeah, this is a very interesting trend Yeah, this is a very interesting trend Yeah, this is a very interesting trend that I you you're not going to hear that I you you're not going to hear that I you you're not going to hear anybody else talk about, but when do anybody else talk about, but when do anybody else talk about, but when do tokens outpace the salary of the tokens outpace the salary of the tokens outpace the salary of the employee? Because you're about to hit employee? Because you're about to hit employee? Because you're about to hit it. I'm about to hit it. I think it. I'm about to hit it. I think it. I'm about to hit it. I think superstar developers are already there. superstar developers are already there. superstar developers are already there. >> Yeah, I think the rank and file is >> Yeah, I think the rank and file is >> Yeah, I think the rank and file is probably 10 20% max. More than likely, probably 10 20% max. More than likely, probably 10 20% max. More than likely, they're spending a few thousand. The they're spending a few thousand. The they're spending a few thousand. The average average average non-technical employee is probably in non-technical employee is probably in non-technical employee is probably in the hundreds to low thousands. But to the hundreds to low thousands. But to the hundreds to low thousands. But to your point, the trend is what matters. your point, the trend is what matters. your point, the trend is what matters. Yeah. So unless we have some gigantic Yeah. So unless we have some gigantic Yeah. So unless we have some gigantic leap forward in generating output tokens leap forward in generating output tokens leap forward in generating output tokens at onetenth the cost of what they are at onetenth the cost of what they are at onetenth the cost of what they are today, which I suspect we will have. So today, which I suspect we will have. So today, which I suspect we will have. So bear with everybody for a while because bear with everybody for a while because bear with everybody for a while because I think Nvidia and Grock and Google and I think Nvidia and Grock and Google and I think Nvidia and Grock and Google and AMD, they're all incentivized to AMD, they're all incentivized to AMD, they're all incentivized to massively ramp up the energy density and massively ramp up the energy density and massively ramp up the energy density and massively push down the token cost. massively push down the token cost. massively push down the token cost. That's going to happen, but it doesn't That's going to happen, but it doesn't That's going to happen, but it doesn't change the trend and it doesn't change change the trend and it doesn't change change the trend and it doesn't change the incentives on confidentiality. Let's the incentives on confidentiality. Let's the incentives on confidentiality. Let's talk about prediction markets, talk about prediction markets, talk about prediction markets, gentlemen. They hit critical mass this gentlemen. They hit critical mass this gentlemen. They hit critical mass this past weekend at the Super Bowl. More past weekend at the Super Bowl. More past weekend at the Super Bowl. More than a billion bet on Kshi, 700 million than a billion bet on Kshi, 700 million than a billion bet on Kshi, 700 million on poly market, almost two billion on poly market, almost two billion on poly market, almost two billion dollars in wagering. The media has been dollars in wagering. The media has been dollars in wagering. The media has been obsessing a bit about market obsessing a bit about market obsessing a bit about market manipulation, insider trading, and all manipulation, insider trading, and all manipulation, insider trading, and all these issues that are totally valid to these issues that are totally valid to these issues that are totally valid to discuss around prediction markets, which discuss around prediction markets, which discuss around prediction markets, which are something new in the world, at least are something new in the world, at least are something new in the world, at least at this scale. two specific examples uh at this scale. two specific examples uh at this scale. two specific examples uh from the halftime show. A day old from the halftime show. A day old from the halftime show. A day old anonymous Poly Market account correctly anonymous Poly Market account correctly anonymous Poly Market account correctly predicted 17 out of 20 halftime show predicted 17 out of 20 halftime show predicted 17 out of 20 halftime show bets, including the special appearances bets, including the special appearances bets, including the special appearances by Lady Gaga, Ricky Martin, but it only by Lady Gaga, Ricky Martin, but it only by Lady Gaga, Ricky Martin, but it only profited 17K, a tiny amount. And then profited 17K, a tiny amount. And then profited 17K, a tiny amount. And then another account created less than 24 another account created less than 24 another account created less than 24 hours before the game correctly bet on hours before the game correctly bet on hours before the game correctly bet on Bad Bunny set list. Wall Street Journal Bad Bunny set list. Wall Street Journal Bad Bunny set list. Wall Street Journal this morning with an article titled, this morning with an article titled, this morning with an article titled, "Israeli soldiers accused of using Poly "Israeli soldiers accused of using Poly "Israeli soldiers accused of using Poly Market to bet on strikes. Israel Market to bet on strikes. Israel Market to bet on strikes. Israel arrested several people, including Army arrested several people, including Army arrested several people, including Army Reserve, for allegedly using classified Reserve, for allegedly using classified Reserve, for allegedly using classified information to place bets on Israeli information to place bets on Israeli information to place bets on Israeli military operations." Quote, "The military operations." Quote, "The military operations." Quote, "The account in question rad in more than account in question rad in more than account in question rad in more than 150,000 in winnings before going dormant 150,000 in winnings before going dormant 150,000 in winnings before going dormant for 6 months. It resumed trading last for 6 months. It resumed trading last for 6 months. It resumed trading last month, betting on when Israel would month, betting on when Israel would month, betting on when Israel would strike Iran." Poly market data shows the strike Iran." Poly market data shows the strike Iran." Poly market data shows the name of the account Rico Suave 666. name of the account Rico Suave 666. name of the account Rico Suave 666. Roave Roave Roave >> Rico Suave. The name of the account Rico >> Rico Suave. The name of the account Rico >> Rico Suave. The name of the account Rico Suave 666. I think that's also the alias Suave 666. I think that's also the alias Suave 666. I think that's also the alias that you were using in Vegas for a that you were using in Vegas for a that you were using in Vegas for a little while there uh at your hotel. little while there uh at your hotel. little while there uh at your hotel. Rico Suave 666. The platforms are Rico Suave 666. The platforms are Rico Suave 666. The platforms are regulated of course by the CFTC. regulated of course by the CFTC. regulated of course by the CFTC. But you know, questions here uh about But you know, questions here uh about But you know, questions here uh about society getting used to this new society getting used to this new society getting used to this new platform. Here's Kali's CEO uh talking platform. Here's Kali's CEO uh talking platform. Here's Kali's CEO uh talking about this on CNBC. about this on CNBC. about this on CNBC. >> Let's say there's a a cameraman happens >> Let's say there's a a cameraman happens >> Let's say there's a a cameraman happens to be in the stadium during the to be in the stadium during the to be in the stadium during the rehearsals. You could argue that would rehearsals. You could argue that would rehearsals. You could argue that would be like somebody at a at a hotel who be like somebody at a at a hotel who be like somebody at a at a hotel who sees a rehearsal of a CEO given a sees a rehearsal of a CEO given a sees a rehearsal of a CEO given a presentation prior. Those guys would presentation prior. Those guys would presentation prior. Those guys would have normally probably had to sign NDAs have normally probably had to sign NDAs have normally probably had to sign NDAs by the company because they would be by the company because they would be by the company because they would be worried about these issues. But in the worried about these issues. But in the worried about these issues. But in the context of this, they probably wouldn't. context of this, they probably wouldn't. context of this, they probably wouldn't. >> It's either one of two cases. Either >> It's either one of two cases. Either >> It's either one of two cases. Either this information can be public and this information can be public and this information can be public and that's okay. Or it's information that that's okay. Or it's information that that's okay. Or it's information that cannot be public beforehand and that's cannot be public beforehand and that's cannot be public beforehand and that's communicated to the staff, right? The communicated to the staff, right? The communicated to the staff, right? The cameraman or the dancer. The reason why cameraman or the dancer. The reason why cameraman or the dancer. The reason why you don't know what song is going to be you don't know what song is going to be you don't know what song is going to be played first that's not public and not played first that's not public and not played first that's not public and not everybody knows beforehand. It's a everybody knows beforehand. It's a everybody knows beforehand. It's a little bit of a surprise Super Bowl. little bit of a surprise Super Bowl. little bit of a surprise Super Bowl. >> Yeah. But but it's not nonmaterial. It's >> Yeah. But but it's not nonmaterial. It's >> Yeah. But but it's not nonmaterial. It's not im it's not material information not im it's not material information not im it's not material information that can't be shared. you're making it that can't be shared. you're making it that can't be shared. you're making it that by putting it on this betting that by putting it on this betting that by putting it on this betting platform, but they have no obligation to platform, but they have no obligation to platform, but they have no obligation to say we're not going to tell anybody our say we're not going to tell anybody our say we're not going to tell anybody our opening lineup because there might be opening lineup because there might be opening lineup because there might be money made on this other place that's money made on this other place that's money made on this other place that's now betting on this. That's not the now betting on this. That's not the now betting on this. That's not the responsibility is not on them. responsibility is not on them. responsibility is not on them. >> Your thoughts just broadly on what I >> Your thoughts just broadly on what I >> Your thoughts just broadly on what I consider society getting used to these consider society getting used to these consider society getting used to these new platforms and what they represent in new platforms and what they represent in new platforms and what they represent in the marketplace of ideas. the marketplace of ideas. the marketplace of ideas. >> I think the question is, is it really >> I think the question is, is it really >> I think the question is, is it really insider trading? If you and I were insider trading? If you and I were insider trading? If you and I were making a side bet and I knew something making a side bet and I knew something making a side bet and I knew something about you and I had some edge or some about you and I had some edge or some about you and I had some edge or some advantage and I made a bet with you, is advantage and I made a bet with you, is advantage and I made a bet with you, is that fair? Should the government have a that fair? Should the government have a that fair? Should the government have a role in regulating that? This kind of role in regulating that? This kind of role in regulating that? This kind of goes back to securities regulation that goes back to securities regulation that goes back to securities regulation that everything needs to be registered and everything needs to be registered and everything needs to be registered and then there's this concept of insider then there's this concept of insider then there's this concept of insider information. It's a real challenge and a information. It's a real challenge and a information. It's a real challenge and a real question on keeping the open real question on keeping the open real question on keeping the open platform platform platform of opportunity for trading on anything of opportunity for trading on anything of opportunity for trading on anything while also trying to mitigate the risk while also trying to mitigate the risk while also trying to mitigate the risk of what people call insider information of what people call insider information of what people call insider information in these trades. There's a good chart in these trades. There's a good chart in these trades. There's a good chart that I think we talked about in our that I think we talked about in our that I think we talked about in our group chat that shows the distribution group chat that shows the distribution group chat that shows the distribution of accounts. There's a few accounts that of accounts. There's a few accounts that of accounts. There's a few accounts that have a huge amount of money and make have a huge amount of money and make have a huge amount of money and make almost all the profits and then a lot of almost all the profits and then a lot of almost all the profits and then a lot of accounts that have very little amount of accounts that have very little amount of accounts that have very little amount of money and they get burnt through very money and they get burnt through very money and they get burnt through very quickly. They actually don't have an quickly. They actually don't have an quickly. They actually don't have an edge. So the the accounts that have a edge. So the the accounts that have a edge. So the the accounts that have a lot of money, they generally only trade lot of money, they generally only trade lot of money, they generally only trade in things where they have an edge where in things where they have an edge where in things where they have an edge where they make markets. They actually have an they make markets. They actually have an they make markets. They actually have an arbitrage or yeah sharps and they eat up arbitrage or yeah sharps and they eat up arbitrage or yeah sharps and they eat up all of the the capital. So if you're a all of the the capital. So if you're a all of the the capital. So if you're a marketplace like this, you probably also marketplace like this, you probably also marketplace like this, you probably also want to be thoughtful about the fact want to be thoughtful about the fact want to be thoughtful about the fact that over time you could burn and churn that over time you could burn and churn that over time you could burn and churn through all of your customers, all of through all of your customers, all of through all of your customers, all of the users on the platform if they're the users on the platform if they're the users on the platform if they're constantly going to be making uh trades constantly going to be making uh trades constantly going to be making uh trades where they simply don't have an edge and where they simply don't have an edge and where they simply don't have an edge and all the capital, all the liquidity is all the capital, all the liquidity is all the capital, all the liquidity is coming from the accounts that do have an coming from the accounts that do have an coming from the accounts that do have an edge and effectively trade off of inside edge and effectively trade off of inside edge and effectively trade off of inside information. So just be that these information. So just be that these information. So just be that these things end up eating themselves up. I things end up eating themselves up. I things end up eating themselves up. I don't don't don't >> Shabbath man, we had in trade. I'm sure >> Shabbath man, we had in trade. I'm sure >> Shabbath man, we had in trade. I'm sure you remember that in I don't know if you remember that in I don't know if you remember that in I don't know if that was in the early 2000s. This idea that was in the early 2000s. This idea that was in the early 2000s. This idea has been out there but it has clicked has been out there but it has clicked has been out there but it has clicked right now for some reason. What are your right now for some reason. What are your right now for some reason. What are your thoughts broadly speaking on the value thoughts broadly speaking on the value thoughts broadly speaking on the value of these platforms to society? of these platforms to society? of these platforms to society? >> Let's define some terms first. So in >> Let's define some terms first. So in >> Let's define some terms first. So in betting betting betting >> there are two kinds of people. There are >> there are two kinds of people. There are >> there are two kinds of people. There are the sharps who know what's actually the sharps who know what's actually the sharps who know what's actually going to happen with a better edge and going to happen with a better edge and going to happen with a better edge and then there are the squares which is then there are the squares which is then there are the squares which is everybody else and they are grist for everybody else and they are grist for everybody else and they are grist for the mill. And in a traditional market the mill. And in a traditional market the mill. And in a traditional market like a sports betting market like a sports betting market like a sports betting market there have been edge cases where you try there have been edge cases where you try there have been edge cases where you try to throw a game or throw a fight or to throw a game or throw a fight or to throw a game or throw a fight or shave points and the sharps are involved shave points and the sharps are involved shave points and the sharps are involved in that. But it's increasingly harder in that. But it's increasingly harder in that. But it's increasingly harder and harder to do because the sports and harder to do because the sports and harder to do because the sports leagues leagues leagues analytically are studying these things analytically are studying these things analytically are studying these things so closely to make sure that that never so closely to make sure that that never so closely to make sure that that never happens. But what you get are people happens. But what you get are people happens. But what you get are people with a smarter sense of what's going to with a smarter sense of what's going to with a smarter sense of what's going to happen and people with less of a smart happen and people with less of a smart happen and people with less of a smart sense of what's going to happen. The sense of what's going to happen. The sense of what's going to happen. The thing with prediction markets is it's thing with prediction markets is it's thing with prediction markets is it's not just that. There will be those not just that. There will be those not just that. There will be those things. But then there are going to be things. But then there are going to be things. But then there are going to be these fundamental markets that are these fundamental markets that are these fundamental markets that are purely about inside information. purely about inside information. purely about inside information. And the question is what can a And the question is what can a And the question is what can a regulatory body or a society do about regulatory body or a society do about regulatory body or a society do about that? And I think the answer is not that? And I think the answer is not that? And I think the answer is not much. And the reason is is that if you much. And the reason is is that if you much. And the reason is is that if you try to regulate this, it looks like a try to regulate this, it looks like a try to regulate this, it looks like a securities market. And I think the securities market. And I think the securities market. And I think the problem there is that these things are problem there is that these things are problem there is that these things are too fluid and too dynamic and too too fluid and too dynamic and too too fluid and too dynamic and too ephemeral for them to be legislated like ephemeral for them to be legislated like ephemeral for them to be legislated like a security. And so why are these things a security. And so why are these things a security. And so why are these things happening? It's because there's too many happening? It's because there's too many happening? It's because there's too many of these prediction markets that can be of these prediction markets that can be of these prediction markets that can be manipulated this way. Somebody knows manipulated this way. Somebody knows manipulated this way. Somebody knows something that somebody else doesn't something that somebody else doesn't something that somebody else doesn't know. And there's no way to arbitrate know. And there's no way to arbitrate know. And there's no way to arbitrate that. This used to exist in the that. This used to exist in the that. This used to exist in the securities market, too. And this is securities market, too. And this is securities market, too. And this is where now I'm going to get a lot of where now I'm going to get a lot of where now I'm going to get a lot of people really upset with me. people really upset with me. people really upset with me. In 2000, we introduced the law called In 2000, we introduced the law called In 2000, we introduced the law called REGGG FD. And what was the point of REGG REGGG FD. And what was the point of REGG REGGG FD. And what was the point of REGG FD? It was basically that if you're a FD? It was basically that if you're a FD? It was basically that if you're a CFO, you cannot talk to an individual CFO, you cannot talk to an individual CFO, you cannot talk to an individual stock manager and tell him something stock manager and tell him something stock manager and tell him something that you then don't tell everybody else. that you then don't tell everybody else. that you then don't tell everybody else. Essentially, inside information Essentially, inside information Essentially, inside information that used to be not illegal. I won't say that used to be not illegal. I won't say that used to be not illegal. I won't say that it was legal. I would just say that that it was legal. I would just say that that it was legal. I would just say that used to be not illegal. You call your used to be not illegal. You call your used to be not illegal. You call your buddy, he says, "Hey, how you doing?" He buddy, he says, "Hey, how you doing?" He buddy, he says, "Hey, how you doing?" He goes, "Man, Quarter was a blockbuster. goes, "Man, Quarter was a blockbuster. goes, "Man, Quarter was a blockbuster. You would go and buy the stock." And You would go and buy the stock." And You would go and buy the stock." And starting in the 2000s, it became starting in the 2000s, it became starting in the 2000s, it became illegal. And there used to be these illegal. And there used to be these illegal. And there used to be these networks of information arbitrage that networks of information arbitrage that networks of information arbitrage that that took advantage of this. Now, this that took advantage of this. Now, this that took advantage of this. Now, this is an example of Warren Buffett's is an example of Warren Buffett's is an example of Warren Buffett's returns pre and postreg. Now, what do returns pre and postreg. Now, what do returns pre and postreg. Now, what do you see? you see? you see? His returns were double the market His returns were double the market His returns were double the market returns returns returns when this kind of information sharing when this kind of information sharing when this kind of information sharing was legal. was legal. was legal. And the minute that it became illegal And the minute that it became illegal And the minute that it became illegal and you had to basically act on the same and you had to basically act on the same and you had to basically act on the same edge as everybody else, edge as everybody else, edge as everybody else, his returns went to the market return. his returns went to the market return. his returns went to the market return. He generated zero alpha. In fact, he He generated zero alpha. In fact, he He generated zero alpha. In fact, he probably on the margins lost a little probably on the margins lost a little probably on the margins lost a little bit. So this is the single best investor bit. So this is the single best investor bit. So this is the single best investor in the world. This is what happens when in the world. This is what happens when in the world. This is what happens when you have information symmetry. you have information symmetry. you have information symmetry. So it's just meant to explain that So it's just meant to explain that So it's just meant to explain that markets thrive when there's asymmetry. markets thrive when there's asymmetry. markets thrive when there's asymmetry. billions and billions of dollars will be billions and billions of dollars will be billions and billions of dollars will be made in asymmetry. The prediction made in asymmetry. The prediction made in asymmetry. The prediction markets today unless they are regulated markets today unless they are regulated markets today unless they are regulated out of existence or shut down will look out of existence or shut down will look out of existence or shut down will look like the stock market free and there's like the stock market free and there's like the stock market free and there's nothing we can do except choose not to nothing we can do except choose not to nothing we can do except choose not to bet it because otherwise what you're bet it because otherwise what you're bet it because otherwise what you're going to have are a ton of sharps taking going to have are a ton of sharps taking going to have are a ton of sharps taking advantage of a ton of squares and I advantage of a ton of squares and I advantage of a ton of squares and I think that's the end state. think that's the end state. think that's the end state. >> Jim, why is it good or bad for society >> Jim, why is it good or bad for society >> Jim, why is it good or bad for society that these exist? You have a take on that these exist? You have a take on that these exist? You have a take on that? There are a certain percentage of that? There are a certain percentage of that? There are a certain percentage of these prediction markets that are about these prediction markets that are about these prediction markets that are about the well functioning of society and the well functioning of society and the well functioning of society and the use of inside information gets to the use of inside information gets to the use of inside information gets to the truth faster the truth faster the truth faster and I think that has value especially if and I think that has value especially if and I think that has value especially if it uncovers corruption or misdeeds it uncovers corruption or misdeeds it uncovers corruption or misdeeds and so if people make money along the and so if people make money along the and so if people make money along the way and that's the incentive that it way and that's the incentive that it way and that's the incentive that it takes for folks to work around what takes for folks to work around what takes for folks to work around what would otherwise be whistleblower laws or would otherwise be whistleblower laws or would otherwise be whistleblower laws or something else to get to the truth and something else to get to the truth and something else to get to the truth and get it out there faster. That probably get it out there faster. That probably get it out there faster. That probably benefits society. benefits society. benefits society. Now, there's a bunch of other things Now, there's a bunch of other things Now, there's a bunch of other things where some people will just set up a where some people will just set up a where some people will just set up a market that they know about and that market that they know about and that market that they know about and that they can control that other people they can control that other people they can control that other people aren't unaware. That's not good. But aren't unaware. That's not good. But aren't unaware. That's not good. But unfortunately, there's no way to discern unfortunately, there's no way to discern unfortunately, there's no way to discern when a prediction market gets created when a prediction market gets created when a prediction market gets created whether it's A or B. And so, you have to whether it's A or B. And so, you have to whether it's A or B. And so, you have to decide whether it's more important that decide whether it's more important that decide whether it's more important that you can understand these current events you can understand these current events you can understand these current events faster with more accuracy or not. And I faster with more accuracy or not. And I faster with more accuracy or not. And I think that's where this decision has to think that's where this decision has to think that's where this decision has to come to and that's what politicians need come to and that's what politicians need come to and that's what politicians need to decide and society needs to decide. to decide and society needs to decide. to decide and society needs to decide. >> All right. We're really excited that >> All right. We're really excited that >> All right. We're really excited that we're doing another event. Yes. A new we're doing another event. Yes. A new we're doing another event. Yes. A new event from your friends at Allin. The event from your friends at Allin. The event from your friends at Allin. The besties are hosting a new conference uh besties are hosting a new conference uh besties are hosting a new conference uh a retreat, a summit in uh wine country a retreat, a summit in uh wine country a retreat, a summit in uh wine country May 31st through June 3rd. It's called May 31st through June 3rd. It's called May 31st through June 3rd. It's called liquidity. This is for capital liquidity. This is for capital liquidity. This is for capital allocators and LPs and GPS. Chamatop, allocators and LPs and GPS. Chamatop, allocators and LPs and GPS. Chamatop, maybe you could talk a little bit about maybe you could talk a little bit about maybe you could talk a little bit about the vision we have here for the event. the vision we have here for the event. the vision we have here for the event. >> There are a handful of conferences that >> There are a handful of conferences that >> There are a handful of conferences that happen every year where money is made. happen every year where money is made. happen every year where money is made. I'll give you a couple of examples. All I'll give you a couple of examples. All I'll give you a couple of examples. All the top the top the top market traders have been invited to this market traders have been invited to this market traders have been invited to this thing called Iris every year where you thing called Iris every year where you thing called Iris every year where you go in front of a large audience, present go in front of a large audience, present go in front of a large audience, present your best long or short idea and you can your best long or short idea and you can your best long or short idea and you can be a debt trader, a credit trader, you be a debt trader, a credit trader, you be a debt trader, a credit trader, you can be an equities trader. I've done it can be an equities trader. I've done it can be an equities trader. I've done it several times. Aman has done it. David several times. Aman has done it. David several times. Aman has done it. David Einhorn has done it. Cliff Robbins has Einhorn has done it. Cliff Robbins has Einhorn has done it. Cliff Robbins has done it. These are incredible places and done it. These are incredible places and done it. These are incredible places and you pay like $10,000 a ticket and if you you pay like $10,000 a ticket and if you you pay like $10,000 a ticket and if you take those portfolios, they tend to do take those portfolios, they tend to do take those portfolios, they tend to do really well. Separately, there are really well. Separately, there are really well. Separately, there are conferences that investment banks conferences that investment banks conferences that investment banks organize that are off the record, not organize that are off the record, not organize that are off the record, not publicly accessible where they ask their publicly accessible where they ask their publicly accessible where they ask their biggest traders to come to a room, and biggest traders to come to a room, and biggest traders to come to a room, and they'll give them each a few minutes to they'll give them each a few minutes to they'll give them each a few minutes to present their best long and short ideas present their best long and short ideas present their best long and short ideas of public stocks. Then there are these of public stocks. Then there are these of public stocks. Then there are these equivalent conferences that investment equivalent conferences that investment equivalent conferences that investment banks do for private companies where the banks do for private companies where the banks do for private companies where the best fast growing private companies show best fast growing private companies show best fast growing private companies show up and the CEOs get on stage and they up and the CEOs get on stage and they up and the CEOs get on stage and they give presentations. give presentations. give presentations. All of these things have been closed. I All of these things have been closed. I All of these things have been closed. I would like to blow that wide open. So would like to blow that wide open. So would like to blow that wide open. So what will we do? We will convene what will we do? We will convene what will we do? We will convene the best investors in public markets, the best investors in public markets, the best investors in public markets, the best hedge fund managers, the best the best hedge fund managers, the best the best hedge fund managers, the best private market investors, the best private market investors, the best private market investors, the best growth investors, the best credit growth investors, the best credit growth investors, the best credit investors, and the largest cohort of LPs investors, and the largest cohort of LPs investors, and the largest cohort of LPs representing trillions of dollars of representing trillions of dollars of representing trillions of dollars of capital, and the CEOs of the fastest capital, and the CEOs of the fastest capital, and the CEOs of the fastest growing and most important companies in growing and most important companies in growing and most important companies in technology. technology. technology. And what we will do over the course of a And what we will do over the course of a And what we will do over the course of a few days is we'll have some few days is we'll have some few days is we'll have some presentations. We'll have best ideas. presentations. We'll have best ideas. presentations. We'll have best ideas. We'll build relationships. We'll build relationships. We'll build relationships. There may be some investments that may There may be some investments that may There may be some investments that may happen as a result of that. We're going happen as a result of that. We're going happen as a result of that. We're going to shut down all of Yianville. We're to shut down all of Yianville. We're to shut down all of Yianville. We're going to shut down the French Laundry. going to shut down the French Laundry. going to shut down the French Laundry. We're going to shut down all of it. And We're going to shut down all of it. And We're going to shut down all of it. And it'll be ours for a two-day playground it'll be ours for a two-day playground it'll be ours for a two-day playground where we will build relationships, where we will build relationships, where we will build relationships, allocate capital, and maybe make some allocate capital, and maybe make some allocate capital, and maybe make some money as a result. So, you need to money as a result. So, you need to money as a result. So, you need to apply. We will make some allocations to apply. We will make some allocations to apply. We will make some allocations to some folks that may not otherwise get some folks that may not otherwise get some folks that may not otherwise get in. We'll make some allocations to in. We'll make some allocations to in. We'll make some allocations to emerging managers who may need to raise emerging managers who may need to raise emerging managers who may need to raise capital and scale up but can show us capital and scale up but can show us capital and scale up but can show us good returns. good returns. good returns. And over time, we'll find a way to And over time, we'll find a way to And over time, we'll find a way to increase a lot of this and make it more increase a lot of this and make it more increase a lot of this and make it more and more publicly accessible. We But we and more publicly accessible. We But we and more publicly accessible. We But we are going to essentially take all of are going to essentially take all of are going to essentially take all of these things that I've been a part of these things that I've been a part of these things that I've been a part of that have been in closed rooms and we're that have been in closed rooms and we're that have been in closed rooms and we're going to put them together and open it going to put them together and open it going to put them together and open it up. up. up. >> Yeah. Well said. Well said. It's going >> Yeah. Well said. Well said. It's going >> Yeah. Well said. Well said. It's going to be a wonderful event. Freeberg, uh, to be a wonderful event. Freeberg, uh, to be a wonderful event. Freeberg, uh, anything you're excited about in terms anything you're excited about in terms anything you're excited about in terms of the event? of the event? of the event? >> No, I love Yfville. We're going to >> No, I love Yfville. We're going to >> No, I love Yfville. We're going to Yanfell, so I'm looking forward to that. Yanfell, so I'm looking forward to that. Yanfell, so I'm looking forward to that. It's going to be great. It's going to be great. It's going to be great. >> I mean, beautiful location and I think >> I mean, beautiful location and I think >> I mean, beautiful location and I think there's going to be ample time for there's going to be ample time for there's going to be ample time for meetings, networking. meetings, networking. meetings, networking. >> Jal, if you're an investor, you can go >> Jal, if you're an investor, you can go >> Jal, if you're an investor, you can go to the website to to the website to to the website to >> allin.com/events >> allin.com/events >> allin.com/events and you can submit your application. We and you can submit your application. We and you can submit your application. We can't have everybody there and this is can't have everybody there and this is can't have everybody there and this is not like a general admission type event. not like a general admission type event. not like a general admission type event. It is specifically for this group of It is specifically for this group of It is specifically for this group of people, capital allocators. So apply at people, capital allocators. So apply at people, capital allocators. So apply at the website allin.com/events. the website allin.com/events. the website allin.com/events. It's going to be wonderful. And Shimoth It's going to be wonderful. And Shimoth It's going to be wonderful. And Shimoth is putting his focus on it. I can tell is putting his focus on it. I can tell is putting his focus on it. I can tell you because I brought him my first five you because I brought him my first five you because I brought him my first five ideas and he was like, "No, no, no. Yes, ideas and he was like, "No, no, no. Yes, ideas and he was like, "No, no, no. Yes, but better." Yes. Yes. So he is engaged but better." Yes. Yes. So he is engaged but better." Yes. Yes. So he is engaged and he's going to make it super tight and he's going to make it super tight and he's going to make it super tight and tight. and tight. and tight. >> I'm being judgy. >> I'm being judgy. >> I'm being judgy. >> Good. I like it. I like it. You know, >> Good. I like it. I like it. You know, >> Good. I like it. I like it. You know, all great events, all great art is has all great events, all great art is has all great events, all great art is has some perspective behind it and we're some perspective behind it and we're some perspective behind it and we're excited to have your sharp perspective excited to have your sharp perspective excited to have your sharp perspective behind this one. Liquidity May 31st to behind this one. Liquidity May 31st to behind this one. Liquidity May 31st to June 3rd. allin.com/events. Okay, let's June 3rd. allin.com/events. Okay, let's June 3rd. allin.com/events. Okay, let's move on to our next topic. The new CBO move on to our next topic. The new CBO move on to our next topic. The new CBO report is out. Freeberg, you said we are report is out. Freeberg, you said we are report is out. Freeberg, you said we are in a debt death spiral. The in a debt death spiral. The in a debt death spiral. The Congressional Budget Offer released its Congressional Budget Offer released its Congressional Budget Offer released its long-term budget forecast on Wednesday, long-term budget forecast on Wednesday, long-term budget forecast on Wednesday, February 11th. Here are the numbers. February 11th. Here are the numbers. February 11th. Here are the numbers. 2026 deficit is 1.9 trillion. And that's 2026 deficit is 1.9 trillion. And that's 2026 deficit is 1.9 trillion. And that's nearly 6% of GDP, much higher than the nearly 6% of GDP, much higher than the nearly 6% of GDP, much higher than the 3% GDP target we heard from Scott Besson 3% GDP target we heard from Scott Besson 3% GDP target we heard from Scott Besson on this podcast. Social Security, I on this podcast. Social Security, I on this podcast. Social Security, I talked about that before. Freeberg Trust talked about that before. Freeberg Trust talked about that before. Freeberg Trust runs out in 2032, runs out in 2032, runs out in 2032, uh, one year earlier than previously uh, one year earlier than previously uh, one year earlier than previously expected. That's obviously going to expected. That's obviously going to expected. That's obviously going to trigger all kinds of discussions around trigger all kinds of discussions around trigger all kinds of discussions around austerity measures that folks will not austerity measures that folks will not austerity measures that folks will not like. The debt will now grow from 31 like. The debt will now grow from 31 like. The debt will now grow from 31 trillion today to 56 trillion in 2036. trillion today to 56 trillion in 2036. trillion today to 56 trillion in 2036. So, it is not stopping, folks. We are So, it is not stopping, folks. We are So, it is not stopping, folks. We are looking at an average of 2.5 trillion looking at an average of 2.5 trillion looking at an average of 2.5 trillion per year from 2026 to 2036. per year from 2026 to 2036. per year from 2026 to 2036. Also, currently we're at 120% debt to Also, currently we're at 120% debt to Also, currently we're at 120% debt to GDP. House Committee on Budget expects GDP. House Committee on Budget expects GDP. House Committee on Budget expects it to be 135%. So slightly up in 2036. it to be 135%. So slightly up in 2036. it to be 135%. So slightly up in 2036. For comparison, Japan is 237, Singapore For comparison, Japan is 237, Singapore For comparison, Japan is 237, Singapore 176, Venezuela 164, the Greeks 154, UK 176, Venezuela 164, the Greeks 154, UK 176, Venezuela 164, the Greeks 154, UK 94. 20 years ago, our debt to GDP was 94. 20 years ago, our debt to GDP was 94. 20 years ago, our debt to GDP was but 60%. Here's a direct quote from the but 60%. Here's a direct quote from the but 60%. Here's a direct quote from the report. The fiscal trajectory is not report. The fiscal trajectory is not report. The fiscal trajectory is not sustainable. sustainable. sustainable. Okay, Dr. Doom, Okay, Dr. Doom, Okay, Dr. Doom, what do you think? Freeberg, this is what do you think? Freeberg, this is what do you think? Freeberg, this is your story, your chance to shine. your story, your chance to shine. your story, your chance to shine. >> Well, there's no outlook to 3% deficit >> Well, there's no outlook to 3% deficit >> Well, there's no outlook to 3% deficit to GDP. to GDP. to GDP. >> There he is. >> There he is. >> There he is. And if you look at the assumptions, one And if you look at the assumptions, one And if you look at the assumptions, one of the key assumptions is that the of the key assumptions is that the of the key assumptions is that the short-term interest rate, which is short-term interest rate, which is short-term interest rate, which is largely how a lot of the debt is getting largely how a lot of the debt is getting largely how a lot of the debt is getting refinanced, is modeled to be around refinanced, is modeled to be around refinanced, is modeled to be around 3.1%. 3.1%. 3.1%. But if rates climb closer to 5%, as I But if rates climb closer to 5%, as I But if rates climb closer to 5%, as I mentioned in the past, just using the mentioned in the past, just using the mentioned in the past, just using the current debt levels, it adds another current debt levels, it adds another current debt levels, it adds another $650 billion a year of interest expense, $650 billion a year of interest expense, $650 billion a year of interest expense, which takes interest expense almost up which takes interest expense almost up which takes interest expense almost up to$2 trillion a year just paying the to$2 trillion a year just paying the to$2 trillion a year just paying the interest on the past debt. And because interest on the past debt. And because interest on the past debt. And because we're running a deficit, that new we're running a deficit, that new we're running a deficit, that new interest expense increases the debt interest expense increases the debt interest expense increases the debt every year. So the debt goes up and up every year. So the debt goes up and up every year. So the debt goes up and up and up just by adding interest on past and up just by adding interest on past and up just by adding interest on past debt. And so this becomes the death debt. And so this becomes the death debt. And so this becomes the death spiral that we've kind of highlighted spiral that we've kind of highlighted spiral that we've kind of highlighted many times. So there's nothing in this many times. So there's nothing in this many times. So there's nothing in this report that I think changes the outlook. report that I think changes the outlook. report that I think changes the outlook. It's pretty scary. Um, I'll say that the It's pretty scary. Um, I'll say that the It's pretty scary. Um, I'll say that the trigger point that I'm getting more and trigger point that I'm getting more and trigger point that I'm getting more and more concerned about, if the Democrats more concerned about, if the Democrats more concerned about, if the Democrats win the midterms and you end up with a win the midterms and you end up with a win the midterms and you end up with a Democrat in the White House in 2028, Democrat in the White House in 2028, Democrat in the White House in 2028, I think that there's a bigger problem at I think that there's a bigger problem at I think that there's a bigger problem at foot, which is all of the state and foot, which is all of the state and foot, which is all of the state and local obligations. We've talked about local obligations. We've talked about local obligations. We've talked about Social Security looks like it's going to Social Security looks like it's going to Social Security looks like it's going to run out of money in a few years here. run out of money in a few years here. run out of money in a few years here. And so, they're going to need to print a And so, they're going to need to print a And so, they're going to need to print a lot more money to fund Social Security lot more money to fund Social Security lot more money to fund Social Security obligations. uh it's very unlikely obligations. uh it's very unlikely obligations. uh it's very unlikely they're going to make a massive cut to they're going to make a massive cut to they're going to make a massive cut to social security because no one will get social security because no one will get social security because no one will get elected if they did that and no one will elected if they did that and no one will elected if they did that and no one will get elected if they promise to do that. get elected if they promise to do that. get elected if they promise to do that. Um and there's a similar problem at the Um and there's a similar problem at the Um and there's a similar problem at the state and local level which is that state and local level which is that state and local level which is that there's pension obligations. We've there's pension obligations. We've there's pension obligations. We've talked about this extensively. talked about this extensively. talked about this extensively. California has nearly a trillion dollars California has nearly a trillion dollars California has nearly a trillion dollars of unfunded pension obligations to its of unfunded pension obligations to its of unfunded pension obligations to its public retirees or public employees that public retirees or public employees that public retirees or public employees that are going to retire. If you end up with are going to retire. If you end up with are going to retire. If you end up with a Democratc controlled House and a a Democratc controlled House and a a Democratc controlled House and a Democrat president in 2028, you'll very Democrat president in 2028, you'll very Democrat president in 2028, you'll very likely see a federalization of that likely see a federalization of that likely see a federalization of that obligation, meaning that the federal obligation, meaning that the federal obligation, meaning that the federal government will step in to bail out or government will step in to bail out or government will step in to bail out or support those state and local support those state and local support those state and local governments because otherwise there's governments because otherwise there's governments because otherwise there's going to be a real kind of economic going to be a real kind of economic going to be a real kind of economic crisis a foot. So when you add that crisis a foot. So when you add that crisis a foot. So when you add that liability coming to hit this CBO report, liability coming to hit this CBO report, liability coming to hit this CBO report, which doesn't include any of that in the which doesn't include any of that in the which doesn't include any of that in the next 5 to 10 years, I think that could next 5 to 10 years, I think that could next 5 to 10 years, I think that could be not just the straw that breaks the be not just the straw that breaks the be not just the straw that breaks the camel's back, but the concrete that camel's back, but the concrete that camel's back, but the concrete that breaks the camel's back. And that's the breaks the camel's back. And that's the breaks the camel's back. And that's the thing I'm most worried about. There is a thing I'm most worried about. There is a thing I'm most worried about. There is a deep connection between what's going on deep connection between what's going on deep connection between what's going on with the socialist movements at a city with the socialist movements at a city with the socialist movements at a city level and now increasingly at a state level and now increasingly at a state level and now increasingly at a state level and what we should expect to level and what we should expect to level and what we should expect to happen with the US dollar and how it happen with the US dollar and how it happen with the US dollar and how it relates to federal spending and federal relates to federal spending and federal relates to federal spending and federal deficits and federal debt and these are deficits and federal debt and these are deficits and federal debt and these are going to be dragging each other into a going to be dragging each other into a going to be dragging each other into a bad place in the next couple of years bad place in the next couple of years bad place in the next couple of years one way or the other. So, you know, one way or the other. So, you know, one way or the other. So, you know, that's kind of what I'm more worried that's kind of what I'm more worried that's kind of what I'm more worried about at this point. It seems if it's about at this point. It seems if it's about at this point. It seems if it's very hard to cut spending or get very hard to cut spending or get very hard to cut spending or get Congress to approve budget cuts that we Congress to approve budget cuts that we Congress to approve budget cuts that we need to save ourselves from this debt need to save ourselves from this debt need to save ourselves from this debt death spiral, imagine how much worse death spiral, imagine how much worse death spiral, imagine how much worse it's going to be in the next couple of it's going to be in the next couple of it's going to be in the next couple of years if we have to bail out or years if we have to bail out or years if we have to bail out or federalize state and local uh debt and federalize state and local uh debt and federalize state and local uh debt and state and local pension obligations. state and local pension obligations. state and local pension obligations. It's going to be really nasty. So, It's going to be really nasty. So, It's going to be really nasty. So, that's the thing I worry about the most. that's the thing I worry about the most. that's the thing I worry about the most. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> In my Dr. Doom hat. >> In my Dr. Doom hat. >> In my Dr. Doom hat. >> Yeah. And I think that that's one of the >> Yeah. And I think that that's one of the >> Yeah. And I think that that's one of the things that no one talks about at the things that no one talks about at the things that no one talks about at the federal level and everyone ignores it federal level and everyone ignores it federal level and everyone ignores it because they assume it's a state and because they assume it's a state and because they assume it's a state and local problem local problem local problem >> as we've talked about and I'll bring it >> as we've talked about and I'll bring it >> as we've talked about and I'll bring it up again and I'll ask my colleague who up again and I'll ask my colleague who up again and I'll ask my colleague who works in the administration to think works in the administration to think works in the administration to think about this idea that you know if we can about this idea that you know if we can about this idea that you know if we can find a way to declare bankruptcy to find a way to declare bankruptcy to find a way to declare bankruptcy to restructure the the fiscal obligations restructure the the fiscal obligations restructure the the fiscal obligations or the the pension obligations that sit or the the pension obligations that sit or the the pension obligations that sit at the state and local level we may have at the state and local level we may have at the state and local level we may have a way out but short of that uh that's a way out but short of that uh that's a way out but short of that uh that's going to pile onto this this federal going to pile onto this this federal going to pile onto this this federal problem. Sax, your thoughts on the CBO problem. Sax, your thoughts on the CBO problem. Sax, your thoughts on the CBO report and this uh death spiral, debt report and this uh death spiral, debt report and this uh death spiral, debt death spiral. death spiral. death spiral. >> Well, we all agree about the problem of >> Well, we all agree about the problem of >> Well, we all agree about the problem of federal spending and the deficit and the federal spending and the deficit and the federal spending and the deficit and the debt and we're all concerned about that. debt and we're all concerned about that. debt and we're all concerned about that. With respect to the CBO study, however, With respect to the CBO study, however, With respect to the CBO study, however, I'll just note that one of the key I'll just note that one of the key I'll just note that one of the key assumptions here is that CBO projects assumptions here is that CBO projects assumptions here is that CBO projects that real GDP will only grow by 2.2% that real GDP will only grow by 2.2% that real GDP will only grow by 2.2% this year in 2026. That's a very low this year in 2026. That's a very low this year in 2026. That's a very low assumption given that we grew by over 4% assumption given that we grew by over 4% assumption given that we grew by over 4% in Q3 last year and the preliminary in Q3 last year and the preliminary in Q3 last year and the preliminary number for Q4 was over 5%. And I think number for Q4 was over 5%. And I think number for Q4 was over 5%. And I think all of our predictions for GDP growth all of our predictions for GDP growth all of our predictions for GDP growth this year when we did our predictions this year when we did our predictions this year when we did our predictions episode was 5% plus. So 2.2% is a pretty episode was 5% plus. So 2.2% is a pretty episode was 5% plus. So 2.2% is a pretty low number. And then they predict that low number. And then they predict that low number. And then they predict that it's going to slow to 1.8% it's going to slow to 1.8% it's going to slow to 1.8% after 2026. So again, these are very after 2026. So again, these are very after 2026. So again, these are very meager anemic growth assumptions. And if meager anemic growth assumptions. And if meager anemic growth assumptions. And if you believe that all of this capex you believe that all of this capex you believe that all of this capex that's being invested in AI that's being invested in AI that's being invested in AI infrastructure is going to have a payoff infrastructure is going to have a payoff infrastructure is going to have a payoff then the growth rates could be a lot then the growth rates could be a lot then the growth rates could be a lot higher. And that ultimately I think is higher. And that ultimately I think is higher. And that ultimately I think is the way to get out of the debt spiral is the way to get out of the debt spiral is the way to get out of the debt spiral is we need strong growth. Without that we need strong growth. Without that we need strong growth. Without that we're not going to get out of this we're not going to get out of this we're not going to get out of this problem. So look I think that if you problem. So look I think that if you problem. So look I think that if you believe in growth then the situation is believe in growth then the situation is believe in growth then the situation is not quite as dire. You know what would I not quite as dire. You know what would I not quite as dire. You know what would I do? Well, I mean, if I could wave a do? Well, I mean, if I could wave a do? Well, I mean, if I could wave a magic wand, the two key charts you want magic wand, the two key charts you want magic wand, the two key charts you want to look at are federal net outlays as a to look at are federal net outlays as a to look at are federal net outlays as a percent of GDP. This is from Fred, percent of GDP. This is from Fred, percent of GDP. This is from Fred, right? And then you want to look at right? And then you want to look at right? And then you want to look at federal receipts, which is tax receipts federal receipts, which is tax receipts federal receipts, which is tax receipts as a percent of GDP. And you just don't as a percent of GDP. And you just don't as a percent of GDP. And you just don't want those lines to be more than call it want those lines to be more than call it want those lines to be more than call it 3% apart. I think that's what Secretary 3% apart. I think that's what Secretary 3% apart. I think that's what Secretary Besson said is try to reduce federal Besson said is try to reduce federal Besson said is try to reduce federal deficits to 3% of GDP. Historically, deficits to 3% of GDP. Historically, deficits to 3% of GDP. Historically, tax receipts have bounced around 17%. tax receipts have bounced around 17%. tax receipts have bounced around 17%. And the federal net outlays have bounced And the federal net outlays have bounced And the federal net outlays have bounced around 20%. So, if you get back to that, around 20%. So, if you get back to that, around 20%. So, if you get back to that, we'd be in pretty good shape. And we we'd be in pretty good shape. And we we'd be in pretty good shape. And we were before CO our federal net outlays, were before CO our federal net outlays, were before CO our federal net outlays, which means spending as a percent of GDP which means spending as a percent of GDP which means spending as a percent of GDP was around 20%. But then with CO, it was around 20%. But then with CO, it was around 20%. But then with CO, it bounced all the way up to 30% in 2020 bounced all the way up to 30% in 2020 bounced all the way up to 30% in 2020 because of both a function of all the because of both a function of all the because of both a function of all the stimulus, but then also the fact that stimulus, but then also the fact that stimulus, but then also the fact that the economy shrank because of CO and the economy shrank because of CO and the economy shrank because of CO and we've never quite gotten back to that we've never quite gotten back to that we've never quite gotten back to that magic 20% number. Right now, it's magic 20% number. Right now, it's magic 20% number. Right now, it's trending around 23%. So, we're doing a trending around 23%. So, we're doing a trending around 23%. So, we're doing a lot better than we did under CO, but lot better than we did under CO, but lot better than we did under CO, but it's still just a few percent higher. I it's still just a few percent higher. I it's still just a few percent higher. I mean, if it was up to me, I would just mean, if it was up to me, I would just mean, if it was up to me, I would just freeze federal spending until the freeze federal spending until the freeze federal spending until the economy grew to the point where federal economy grew to the point where federal economy grew to the point where federal spending as a percent of GDP is 20%. And spending as a percent of GDP is 20%. And spending as a percent of GDP is 20%. And then you could let federal spending then you could let federal spending then you could let federal spending continue to grow as the economy grows. continue to grow as the economy grows. continue to grow as the economy grows. And we're not even talking about cuts And we're not even talking about cuts And we're not even talking about cuts here. We're not even talking about here. We're not even talking about here. We're not even talking about shrinking the size of the government. shrinking the size of the government. shrinking the size of the government. We're just talking about limiting the We're just talking about limiting the We're just talking about limiting the rate of growth until the overall size of rate of growth until the overall size of rate of growth until the overall size of the economy can catch up with it. But the economy can catch up with it. But the economy can catch up with it. But look, as we know, it's very hard to get look, as we know, it's very hard to get look, as we know, it's very hard to get Washington to go along with that because Washington to go along with that because Washington to go along with that because there is just a lot of spending pressure there is just a lot of spending pressure there is just a lot of spending pressure in Washington. One thing I will say in Washington. One thing I will say in Washington. One thing I will say though, I mean, just to give some credit though, I mean, just to give some credit though, I mean, just to give some credit to the administration here, is that the to the administration here, is that the to the administration here, is that the level of federal employment is at the level of federal employment is at the level of federal employment is at the lowest level since 1966. So during uh lowest level since 1966. So during uh lowest level since 1966. So during uh President Trump's second term here, President Trump's second term here, President Trump's second term here, we've gone from roughly 3 million we've gone from roughly 3 million we've gone from roughly 3 million federal employees to a little bit under federal employees to a little bit under federal employees to a little bit under 2.7 million. So, you know, over 300,000 2.7 million. So, you know, over 300,000 2.7 million. So, you know, over 300,000 federal employees have been cut. I think federal employees have been cut. I think federal employees have been cut. I think that is a good start. I mean, you that is a good start. I mean, you that is a good start. I mean, you >> 10% >> 10% >> 10% >> is a good start for you, >> is a good start for you, >> is a good start for you, >> by the way. I think that's I think >> by the way. I think that's I think >> by the way. I think that's I think that's really important to just pause on that's really important to just pause on that's really important to just pause on just so people understand this isn't just so people understand this isn't just so people understand this isn't like some hurtful thing about firing like some hurtful thing about firing like some hurtful thing about firing people. They lose their jobs. But when people. They lose their jobs. But when people. They lose their jobs. But when people move from the government people move from the government people move from the government workforce into the private workforce, workforce into the private workforce, workforce into the private workforce, they become productive. They're making they become productive. They're making they become productive. They're making things that grow the economy. And things that grow the economy. And things that grow the economy. And theoretically, they should also make theoretically, they should also make theoretically, they should also make more money. So this is positive from an more money. So this is positive from an more money. So this is positive from an economic point of view to move the economic point of view to move the economic point of view to move the workforce from public to private. It workforce from public to private. It workforce from public to private. It also to my point historically I think also to my point historically I think also to my point historically I think it's very important to avoid the it's very important to avoid the it's very important to avoid the socialist spiral that if you have too socialist spiral that if you have too socialist spiral that if you have too many people employed by the government many people employed by the government many people employed by the government it becomes impossible to not employ it becomes impossible to not employ it becomes impossible to not employ people by the government and that people by the government and that people by the government and that becomes ultimately deacto socialism. becomes ultimately deacto socialism. becomes ultimately deacto socialism. Shimath your thoughts here obviously Shimath your thoughts here obviously Shimath your thoughts here obviously great thing that we're shrinking the great thing that we're shrinking the great thing that we're shrinking the size of the government those people size of the government those people size of the government those people becoming more productive going into the becoming more productive going into the becoming more productive going into the private sector. That's a big win. We all private sector. That's a big win. We all private sector. That's a big win. We all agree 10% great job in the first year. agree 10% great job in the first year. agree 10% great job in the first year. Hey, maybe 5% the next two or three Hey, maybe 5% the next two or three Hey, maybe 5% the next two or three years would be even better, but the debt years would be even better, but the debt years would be even better, but the debt continues to be a problem. Uh, are you continues to be a problem. Uh, are you continues to be a problem. Uh, are you worried? Do you think there's a solution worried? Do you think there's a solution worried? Do you think there's a solution here? What would you do if you were here? What would you do if you were here? What would you do if you were running the show? running the show? running the show? I think you have to take a broader I think you have to take a broader I think you have to take a broader historical context to this. historical context to this. historical context to this. Does debt to GDP matter? Does debt to GDP matter? Does debt to GDP matter? It depends on many things, but mostly I It depends on many things, but mostly I It depends on many things, but mostly I would say it doesn't matter. would say it doesn't matter. would say it doesn't matter. And it's very easy for people to get And it's very easy for people to get And it's very easy for people to get agitated about that. Now, there are agitated about that. Now, there are agitated about that. Now, there are things that matter when you print too things that matter when you print too things that matter when you print too much money, which is the value of the much money, which is the value of the much money, which is the value of the dollar, the value of exports, the cost dollar, the value of exports, the cost dollar, the value of exports, the cost of imports, and how to actually protect of imports, and how to actually protect of imports, and how to actually protect your earnings and your wealth. That's a your earnings and your wealth. That's a your earnings and your wealth. That's a different question. This is a historical different question. This is a historical different question. This is a historical look back from about 300 years of debt look back from about 300 years of debt look back from about 300 years of debt to GDP of the largest functioning to GDP of the largest functioning to GDP of the largest functioning economies in the world. Now, what do you economies in the world. Now, what do you economies in the world. Now, what do you see? What you see is the trend where see? What you see is the trend where see? What you see is the trend where you, you know, if you smooth it out for you, you know, if you smooth it out for you, you know, if you smooth it out for wars, which by the way has this weird wars, which by the way has this weird wars, which by the way has this weird effect of first escalating the debt to effect of first escalating the debt to effect of first escalating the debt to GDP, but then severely impacting it in a GDP, but then severely impacting it in a GDP, but then severely impacting it in a positive way. The Napoleonic War, the positive way. The Napoleonic War, the positive way. The Napoleonic War, the FrancoRussian War, World War II, these FrancoRussian War, World War II, these FrancoRussian War, World War II, these things all had positive effects on things all had positive effects on things all had positive effects on bringing debt to GDP once the war was bringing debt to GDP once the war was bringing debt to GDP once the war was over. But the general trend since 1700 over. But the general trend since 1700 over. But the general trend since 1700 to now is up and to the right. And the to now is up and to the right. And the to now is up and to the right. And the key observation is that it moves in key observation is that it moves in key observation is that it moves in unison that these things are relative unison that these things are relative unison that these things are relative problems. So if the entire world moves problems. So if the entire world moves problems. So if the entire world moves in unison like this there is an argument in unison like this there is an argument in unison like this there is an argument to be made which is that you could end to be made which is that you could end to be made which is that you could end up at 300 up at 300 up at 300 250 200% of debt to GDP. But if 250 200% of debt to GDP. But if 250 200% of debt to GDP. But if everybody is there nothing really everybody is there nothing really everybody is there nothing really changes that much. The real question is changes that much. The real question is changes that much. The real question is if one country is able to decouple if one country is able to decouple if one country is able to decouple itself and its economic output is so itself and its economic output is so itself and its economic output is so meaningfully different than everybody meaningfully different than everybody meaningfully different than everybody else's. So my first take on this whole else's. So my first take on this whole else's. So my first take on this whole debt to GDP thing is I think you have to debt to GDP thing is I think you have to debt to GDP thing is I think you have to look at it together as a group. look at it together as a group. look at it together as a group. Separately, Separately, Separately, is it important to contain the debt? is it important to contain the debt? is it important to contain the debt? Absolutely. But for these other reasons, Absolutely. But for these other reasons, Absolutely. But for these other reasons, for earnings, for inflation, for all of for earnings, for inflation, for all of for earnings, for inflation, for all of those very practical reasons that impact those very practical reasons that impact those very practical reasons that impact your daily lived life. And what do we your daily lived life. And what do we your daily lived life. And what do we know there? We know that President Trump know there? We know that President Trump know there? We know that President Trump was elected on a massive mandate was elected on a massive mandate was elected on a massive mandate to secure the border on one hand, but to to secure the border on one hand, but to to secure the border on one hand, but to look at waste, fraud, and abuse on the look at waste, fraud, and abuse on the look at waste, fraud, and abuse on the other. And on that side, what did he do? other. And on that side, what did he do? other. And on that side, what did he do? He drafted the most important and He drafted the most important and He drafted the most important and prolific private businessman in the prolific private businessman in the prolific private businessman in the history of the world to be his tip of history of the world to be his tip of history of the world to be his tip of the spear. the spear. the spear. And what happened? They identified And what happened? They identified And what happened? They identified hundreds of billions of dollars. But hundreds of billions of dollars. But hundreds of billions of dollars. But when it came down to it and Congress had when it came down to it and Congress had when it came down to it and Congress had to act to solidify these cuts, they to act to solidify these cuts, they to act to solidify these cuts, they haven't done much of anything. Which is haven't done much of anything. Which is haven't done much of anything. Which is a way of saying that if the most a way of saying that if the most a way of saying that if the most conservative Congress in the history of conservative Congress in the history of conservative Congress in the history of the United States has not done much to the United States has not done much to the United States has not done much to solidify these cuts that were identified solidify these cuts that were identified solidify these cuts that were identified by the White House and Doge, then as by the White House and Doge, then as by the White House and Doge, then as Freeberg said, it'll only get worse if Freeberg said, it'll only get worse if Freeberg said, it'll only get worse if there's ever a Democratic House and there's ever a Democratic House and there's ever a Democratic House and Democratic control. So what do we have Democratic control. So what do we have Democratic control. So what do we have to do? I think we have to just to do? I think we have to just to do? I think we have to just acknowledge that if debt to GDP acknowledge that if debt to GDP acknowledge that if debt to GDP continually moves in unison, the music continually moves in unison, the music continually moves in unison, the music isn't up for a very long time. That's isn't up for a very long time. That's isn't up for a very long time. That's just an observation. I'm not saying it's just an observation. I'm not saying it's just an observation. I'm not saying it's right or wrong. It's just the right or wrong. It's just the right or wrong. It's just the observation. But you got to find ways of observation. But you got to find ways of observation. But you got to find ways of hedging and owning real durable assets hedging and owning real durable assets hedging and owning real durable assets because the underlying currency that is because the underlying currency that is because the underlying currency that is used in these economies even on a used in these economies even on a used in these economies even on a relative basis will fluctuate wildly and relative basis will fluctuate wildly and relative basis will fluctuate wildly and just fall off of a cliff which will mean just fall off of a cliff which will mean just fall off of a cliff which will mean that it will erode the value that you that it will erode the value that you that it will erode the value that you have created for yourself and your have created for yourself and your have created for yourself and your family. That I think is the most family. That I think is the most family. That I think is the most important takeaway from all of this, important takeaway from all of this, important takeaway from all of this, which is we probably see things like which is we probably see things like which is we probably see things like gold gold gold do much much better over time because do much much better over time because do much much better over time because people will be afraid about the people will be afraid about the people will be afraid about the durability of their dollar denominated durability of their dollar denominated durability of their dollar denominated resources. But it will also be true for resources. But it will also be true for resources. But it will also be true for all these other denominated resources. all these other denominated resources. all these other denominated resources. But I think debt to GDP quite honestly But I think debt to GDP quite honestly But I think debt to GDP quite honestly if I had to be a betting man will trend if I had to be a betting man will trend if I had to be a betting man will trend into the 2 3 4 5 600 on a relative basis into the 2 3 4 5 600 on a relative basis into the 2 3 4 5 600 on a relative basis for all countries because I just think for all countries because I just think for all countries because I just think the governments of these countries are the governments of these countries are the governments of these countries are addicted to spending and there is no addicted to spending and there is no addicted to spending and there is no reason to stop safe of some other reason to stop safe of some other reason to stop safe of some other planetary species invading planet earth. planetary species invading planet earth. planetary species invading planet earth. >> Yeah. A black swan event. Yes. >> Yeah. A black swan event. Yes. >> Yeah. A black swan event. Yes. >> Yeah. There's also a question of what >> Yeah. There's also a question of what >> Yeah. There's also a question of what Fed action will do to the capacity for Fed action will do to the capacity for Fed action will do to the capacity for excess deficit spending. So if Kevin excess deficit spending. So if Kevin excess deficit spending. So if Kevin Worsh Worsh Worsh really does want to tighten the Fed's really does want to tighten the Fed's really does want to tighten the Fed's balance sheet and the Fed is effectively balance sheet and the Fed is effectively balance sheet and the Fed is effectively the first in line buyer of treasuries, the first in line buyer of treasuries, the first in line buyer of treasuries, meaning they are printing money to fund meaning they are printing money to fund meaning they are printing money to fund the government spending and they slow the government spending and they slow the government spending and they slow down or actively slow down and stop down or actively slow down and stop down or actively slow down and stop doing that, then there is a real um kind doing that, then there is a real um kind doing that, then there is a real um kind of question on what action will Congress of question on what action will Congress of question on what action will Congress and the administration need to take and the administration need to take and the administration need to take because what will happen as you know if because what will happen as you know if because what will happen as you know if the Fed stops buying treasuries, the Fed stops buying treasuries, the Fed stops buying treasuries, Treasury yields will go up. And if Treasury yields will go up. And if Treasury yields will go up. And if Treasury yields go up, that means the Treasury yields go up, that means the Treasury yields go up, that means the interest on the existing debt will start interest on the existing debt will start interest on the existing debt will start to go up. And if that lasts for a period to go up. And if that lasts for a period to go up. And if that lasts for a period of time and you start going from 3 to 4 of time and you start going from 3 to 4 of time and you start going from 3 to 4 to 4 12 to 5% on the short end of the to 4 12 to 5% on the short end of the to 4 12 to 5% on the short end of the the yield curve, then it starts to the yield curve, then it starts to the yield curve, then it starts to become way too expensive to fund this become way too expensive to fund this become way too expensive to fund this level of deficit spending because the level of deficit spending because the level of deficit spending because the interest expense will just start to interest expense will just start to interest expense will just start to climb and eat it all up. So I think like climb and eat it all up. So I think like climb and eat it all up. So I think like the Kevin Worsh question is if he really the Kevin Worsh question is if he really the Kevin Worsh question is if he really is going to reduce the balance sheet, is going to reduce the balance sheet, is going to reduce the balance sheet, what's that going to do to rates? What's what's that going to do to rates? What's what's that going to do to rates? What's that going to ultimately force Congress, that going to ultimately force Congress, that going to ultimately force Congress, force the administration to do with force the administration to do with force the administration to do with spending? spending? spending? >> Jason, what do you think? >> Jason, what do you think? >> Jason, what do you think? >> Uh, you know, we are in a >> Uh, you know, we are in a >> Uh, you know, we are in a consumer-driven consumer-driven consumer-driven economy and the employment rate in this economy and the employment rate in this economy and the employment rate in this country is absolutely fantastic. So, country is absolutely fantastic. So, country is absolutely fantastic. So, just three quick charts here. You know, just three quick charts here. You know, just three quick charts here. You know, this is this is this is the number of job openings. We still the number of job openings. We still the number of job openings. We still have, even after we burned off uh in have, even after we burned off uh in have, even after we burned off uh in 2022 from 12 million to 7 million jobs, 2022 from 12 million to 7 million jobs, 2022 from 12 million to 7 million jobs, we still have a ton of jobs available. we still have a ton of jobs available. we still have a ton of jobs available. Then if you look at our unemployment Then if you look at our unemployment Then if you look at our unemployment rate, it's still at historical lows for rate, it's still at historical lows for rate, it's still at historical lows for our lifetime. If you were born in 1970, our lifetime. If you were born in 1970, our lifetime. If you were born in 1970, this is as good as it gets. 4.456 this is as good as it gets. 4.456 this is as good as it gets. 4.456 is what it's been. It's ticking up is what it's been. It's ticking up is what it's been. It's ticking up modestly, but still lowest of our modestly, but still lowest of our modestly, but still lowest of our lifetimes. And then finally, the lifetimes. And then finally, the lifetimes. And then finally, the employment participation rate, number of employment participation rate, number of employment participation rate, number of people in our society who are working people in our society who are working people in our society who are working and able to work. It peaked at 68% or so and able to work. It peaked at 68% or so and able to work. It peaked at 68% or so during the Clinton years and this is during the Clinton years and this is during the Clinton years and this is still low 62%. still low 62%. still low 62%. We still have people who could be We still have people who could be We still have people who could be participating. So all of these problems participating. So all of these problems participating. So all of these problems will be solved if more people were to will be solved if more people were to will be solved if more people were to participate and take those jobs. Why participate and take those jobs. Why participate and take those jobs. Why don't they take those jobs? Sometimes don't they take those jobs? Sometimes don't they take those jobs? Sometimes it's a geographic mismatch. Sometimes it it's a geographic mismatch. Sometimes it it's a geographic mismatch. Sometimes it is a skills mismatch and but very often is a skills mismatch and but very often is a skills mismatch and but very often it is the jobs are not paying enough. So it is the jobs are not paying enough. So it is the jobs are not paying enough. So if you want to give uh Trump his flowers if you want to give uh Trump his flowers if you want to give uh Trump his flowers by closing the border, you've reduced by closing the border, you've reduced by closing the border, you've reduced the number of people taking the jobs uh the number of people taking the jobs uh the number of people taking the jobs uh off the books and then you have the off the books and then you have the off the books and then you have the businesses are going to have to raise businesses are going to have to raise businesses are going to have to raise their minimum wage. They're going to their minimum wage. They're going to their minimum wage. They're going to have to raise their offering wage, which have to raise their offering wage, which have to raise their offering wage, which then might get this 7% or so that are then might get this 7% or so that are then might get this 7% or so that are sitting on the sidelines to take their sitting on the sidelines to take their sitting on the sidelines to take their jobs. Crazy prediction. I wouldn't be jobs. Crazy prediction. I wouldn't be jobs. Crazy prediction. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Trump, who is surprised if we see Trump, who is surprised if we see Trump, who is obviously a populist, and I tweeted obviously a populist, and I tweeted obviously a populist, and I tweeted about this the other day, got almost a about this the other day, got almost a about this the other day, got almost a half million views or 400,000 views. half million views or 400,000 views. half million views or 400,000 views. What if um Trump decides he's going to What if um Trump decides he's going to What if um Trump decides he's going to raise the minimum wage? Not saying I raise the minimum wage? Not saying I raise the minimum wage? Not saying I endorse this or not, but it's incredibly endorse this or not, but it's incredibly endorse this or not, but it's incredibly low at seven bucks an hour. Obviously, low at seven bucks an hour. Obviously, low at seven bucks an hour. Obviously, in different cities and states, it's 15 in different cities and states, it's 15 in different cities and states, it's 15 to 20. But what if Trump said we're to 20. But what if Trump said we're to 20. But what if Trump said we're going to add a dollar to it or $2 to it going to add a dollar to it or $2 to it going to add a dollar to it or $2 to it over each year of the next three? this over each year of the next three? this over each year of the next three? this would be incredibly popular and it would would be incredibly popular and it would would be incredibly popular and it would get some of those people off the get some of those people off the get some of those people off the sidelines and maybe take these jobs. So, sidelines and maybe take these jobs. So, sidelines and maybe take these jobs. So, just a crazy prediction there, but I just a crazy prediction there, but I just a crazy prediction there, but I think it's a possibility and I think think it's a possibility and I think think it's a possibility and I think they're going to lose the midterms as it they're going to lose the midterms as it they're going to lose the midterms as it stands right now. It looks like I think stands right now. It looks like I think stands right now. It looks like I think that's the consensus opinion and they that's the consensus opinion and they that's the consensus opinion and they haven't been able to do something with haven't been able to do something with haven't been able to do something with this affordability. Well, I think most this affordability. Well, I think most this affordability. Well, I think most Americans would say if you raise the Americans would say if you raise the Americans would say if you raise the minimum wage uh that that would increase minimum wage uh that that would increase minimum wage uh that that would increase affordability. You can make the counter affordability. You can make the counter affordability. You can make the counter argument it's going to just be argument it's going to just be argument it's going to just be inflationary, but I think most Americans inflationary, but I think most Americans inflationary, but I think most Americans are going to believe in that. So, I are going to believe in that. So, I are going to believe in that. So, I wouldn't be surprised if you saw Trump wouldn't be surprised if you saw Trump wouldn't be surprised if you saw Trump take action there because he does take take action there because he does take take action there because he does take populist actions like this from time to populist actions like this from time to populist actions like this from time to time. time. time. >> You actually the economic literature on >> You actually the economic literature on >> You actually the economic literature on what raising the minimum wage does. what raising the minimum wage does. what raising the minimum wage does. >> Yes. It can increase inflation and it >> Yes. It can increase inflation and it >> Yes. It can increase inflation and it can lower the it can raise inflation and can lower the it can raise inflation and can lower the it can raise inflation and it can lower the profitability of it can lower the profitability of it can lower the profitability of businesses. Yeah. And move stuff businesses. Yeah. And move stuff businesses. Yeah. And move stuff offshore. No, what it does is it makes offshore. No, what it does is it makes offshore. No, what it does is it makes it illegal to hire someone whose labor it illegal to hire someone whose labor it illegal to hire someone whose labor is worth less than the minimum wage and is worth less than the minimum wage and is worth less than the minimum wage and so it is shown to create higher so it is shown to create higher so it is shown to create higher unemployment in those segments of the unemployment in those segments of the unemployment in those segments of the economy. It's like one of those core economy. It's like one of those core economy. It's like one of those core findings of economists. So yeah, it's findings of economists. So yeah, it's findings of economists. So yeah, it's true that some people will be a true that some people will be a true that some people will be a beneficiary of getting a higher minimum beneficiary of getting a higher minimum beneficiary of getting a higher minimum wage, but then there'll be other people wage, but then there'll be other people wage, but then there'll be other people who just lose their jobs and it creates who just lose their jobs and it creates who just lose their jobs and it creates an incentive for those employers to an incentive for those employers to an incentive for those employers to shift more labor towards automation. So shift more labor towards automation. So shift more labor towards automation. So if you're already worried about those if you're already worried about those if you're already worried about those people losing their jobs to automation, people losing their jobs to automation, people losing their jobs to automation, that's a downside. So anyway, if the that's a downside. So anyway, if the that's a downside. So anyway, if the minimum wage were a panacea and it just minimum wage were a panacea and it just minimum wage were a panacea and it just increased everyone's living standards increased everyone's living standards increased everyone's living standards without having downsides, why wouldn't without having downsides, why wouldn't without having downsides, why wouldn't you make the minimum wage $100 an hour? you make the minimum wage $100 an hour? you make the minimum wage $100 an hour? You know, why would you know, everyone You know, why would you know, everyone You know, why would you know, everyone would just keep raising it infinitely? would just keep raising it infinitely? would just keep raising it infinitely? Obviously, it doesn't work because if Obviously, it doesn't work because if Obviously, it doesn't work because if you raise the minimum wage too much, you raise the minimum wage too much, you raise the minimum wage too much, which is to say more than the value of which is to say more than the value of which is to say more than the value of someone's labor, then they just get someone's labor, then they just get someone's labor, then they just get unemployed. looking at what happened in unemployed. looking at what happened in unemployed. looking at what happened in the different cities or in Australia or the different cities or in Australia or the different cities or in Australia or other countries, they have a much higher other countries, they have a much higher other countries, they have a much higher minimum wage and they have much more minimum wage and they have much more minimum wage and they have much more happiness. Businesses and prices go up happiness. Businesses and prices go up happiness. Businesses and prices go up about 20% 10 to 20%. So in Australia, if about 20% 10 to 20%. So in Australia, if about 20% 10 to 20%. So in Australia, if you go to a restaurant or if you go to a you go to a restaurant or if you go to a you go to a restaurant or if you go to a Scandinavian country, things might cost Scandinavian country, things might cost Scandinavian country, things might cost 10% 20% more, but you have a happier 10% 20% more, but you have a happier 10% 20% more, but you have a happier population. Uh and yes, it could lead to population. Uh and yes, it could lead to population. Uh and yes, it could lead to more, you know, automation. We got rid more, you know, automation. We got rid more, you know, automation. We got rid of cashiers because it became too of cashiers because it became too of cashiers because it became too expensive in New York to pay 15 to 20 expensive in New York to pay 15 to 20 expensive in New York to pay 15 to 20 bucks for a cashier. Sure. But we have bucks for a cashier. Sure. But we have bucks for a cashier. Sure. But we have really low minimum. We have very low really low minimum. We have very low really low minimum. We have very low unemployment now. And the businesses can unemployment now. And the businesses can unemployment now. And the businesses can clearly afford to pay an extra buck an clearly afford to pay an extra buck an clearly afford to pay an extra buck an hour or two bucks an hour. So there's hour or two bucks an hour. So there's hour or two bucks an hour. So there's the theoretical academic argument which the theoretical academic argument which the theoretical academic argument which you are correct on and I understand it you are correct on and I understand it you are correct on and I understand it fully well. And then there's the reality fully well. And then there's the reality fully well. And then there's the reality on the field which is Seattle, San on the field which is Seattle, San on the field which is Seattle, San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, Australia, other places have a much Australia, other places have a much Australia, other places have a much higher minimum wage. they have higher higher minimum wage. they have higher higher minimum wage. they have higher happiness in the population. I don't happiness in the population. I don't happiness in the population. I don't actually think it will have any impact actually think it will have any impact actually think it will have any impact because I think it's artificially low, because I think it's artificially low, because I think it's artificially low, but that's just one man's opinion. I but that's just one man's opinion. I but that's just one man's opinion. I think it would change the game here in think it would change the game here in think it would change the game here in America and I think it would actually do America and I think it would actually do America and I think it would actually do something to your uh concern Freeberg something to your uh concern Freeberg something to your uh concern Freeberg about socialism. I think that if people about socialism. I think that if people about socialism. I think that if people felt that there was a, you know, kind of felt that there was a, you know, kind of felt that there was a, you know, kind of a backs stop against this low low cost a backs stop against this low low cost a backs stop against this low low cost of labor, it might actually make people of labor, it might actually make people of labor, it might actually make people pretty stoked, you know, that they could pretty stoked, you know, that they could pretty stoked, you know, that they could get a higher paying hourly job and it get a higher paying hourly job and it get a higher paying hourly job and it might take some of that edge off in the might take some of that edge off in the might take some of that edge off in the same way universal healthcare might do same way universal healthcare might do same way universal healthcare might do that. But again, just one man's opinion. that. But again, just one man's opinion. that. But again, just one man's opinion. >> I got to say on all this economic data, >> I got to say on all this economic data, >> I got to say on all this economic data, I I think we're kind of missing the lead I I think we're kind of missing the lead I I think we're kind of missing the lead here, which is we are at the beginning here, which is we are at the beginning here, which is we are at the beginning of an economic boom. Again, we saw it in of an economic boom. Again, we saw it in of an economic boom. Again, we saw it in the GDP growth rates in Q3 and Q4 last the GDP growth rates in Q3 and Q4 last the GDP growth rates in Q3 and Q4 last year. Over 4% Q3, over 5% Q4. We just year. Over 4% Q3, over 5% Q4. We just year. Over 4% Q3, over 5% Q4. We just had a January job report where the had a January job report where the had a January job report where the economy added 172,000 new private sector economy added 172,000 new private sector economy added 172,000 new private sector jobs. This blew away the expectation jobs. This blew away the expectation jobs. This blew away the expectation which was around 70,000. At the same which was around 70,000. At the same which was around 70,000. At the same time, the government shed 42,000 jobs. time, the government shed 42,000 jobs. time, the government shed 42,000 jobs. The net of this was to bring the The net of this was to bring the The net of this was to bring the unemployment rate down to 4.3%. So, I unemployment rate down to 4.3%. So, I unemployment rate down to 4.3%. So, I remember a few months ago, JCL, you were remember a few months ago, JCL, you were remember a few months ago, JCL, you were ringing your hands about the fact that ringing your hands about the fact that ringing your hands about the fact that the unemployment rate had ticked up. the unemployment rate had ticked up. the unemployment rate had ticked up. Well, now it's back down and you're Well, now it's back down and you're Well, now it's back down and you're seeing a lot of jobs being created in seeing a lot of jobs being created in seeing a lot of jobs being created in construction, especially non-residential construction, especially non-residential construction, especially non-residential construction. Has to do with the data construction. Has to do with the data construction. Has to do with the data centers, the AI boom that's going on. centers, the AI boom that's going on. centers, the AI boom that's going on. 33,000 new construction jobs in January. 33,000 new construction jobs in January. 33,000 new construction jobs in January. We've seen in President Trump's second We've seen in President Trump's second We've seen in President Trump's second term, you've had 615,000 term, you've had 615,000 term, you've had 615,000 new private sector jobs been created. new private sector jobs been created. new private sector jobs been created. While again like we talked about over While again like we talked about over While again like we talked about over 300,000 government jobs have been cut 300,000 government jobs have been cut 300,000 government jobs have been cut which increases the productivity of the which increases the productivity of the which increases the productivity of the economy and it does what Secretary economy and it does what Secretary economy and it does what Secretary Besson says which is rep privatize the Besson says which is rep privatize the Besson says which is rep privatize the economy. So I just think that the economy. So I just think that the economy. So I just think that the overall economic news is really good. overall economic news is really good. overall economic news is really good. Again we have this AI boom going on. Again we have this AI boom going on. Again we have this AI boom going on. There's a new chart showing that the There's a new chart showing that the There's a new chart showing that the capex for this year that's expected just capex for this year that's expected just capex for this year that's expected just from the four leading hyperscalers is from the four leading hyperscalers is from the four leading hyperscalers is $600 billion just from four companies. $600 billion just from four companies. $600 billion just from four companies. That's a roughly 2% tailwind to GDP That's a roughly 2% tailwind to GDP That's a roughly 2% tailwind to GDP growth right there. That is just the growth right there. That is just the growth right there. That is just the capex. That doesn't include all the ROI capex. That doesn't include all the ROI capex. That doesn't include all the ROI that you might get from that that you might get from that that you might get from that infrastructure on the software side, on infrastructure on the software side, on infrastructure on the software side, on the application side, the productivity the application side, the productivity the application side, the productivity side. So, we have a boom going on and I side. So, we have a boom going on and I side. So, we have a boom going on and I feel like everyone's kind of feel like everyone's kind of feel like everyone's kind of blackpilling about this. Uh, you know, blackpilling about this. Uh, you know, blackpilling about this. Uh, you know, they're focusing on this they're focusing on this they're focusing on this >> I agree >> I agree >> I agree >> CBO report that has unrealistically low >> CBO report that has unrealistically low >> CBO report that has unrealistically low growth rates. growth rates. growth rates. >> We're going to print 6%. >> We're going to print 6%. >> We're going to print 6%. >> Or they're doom scrolling about Epstein >> Or they're doom scrolling about Epstein >> Or they're doom scrolling about Epstein or what have you. or what have you. or what have you. >> And I just think when we look back on >> And I just think when we look back on >> And I just think when we look back on this period, it could end up being a this period, it could end up being a this period, it could end up being a little bit like the late 90s. Remember little bit like the late 90s. Remember little bit like the late 90s. Remember when we had, you know, we look back on when we had, you know, we look back on when we had, you know, we look back on the late 90s, we're like, "Wow, we had the late 90s, we're like, "Wow, we had the late 90s, we're like, "Wow, we had like phenomenal economic growth. like phenomenal economic growth. like phenomenal economic growth. >> Golden age. >> Golden age. >> Golden age. >> Golden age. Economic labor >> Golden age. Economic labor >> Golden age. Economic labor participation. participation. participation. the internet, the internet, the internet, >> right? But if you remember what politics >> right? But if you remember what politics >> right? But if you remember what politics were like at that time period, all were like at that time period, all were like at that time period, all anyone talked about was whether Bill anyone talked about was whether Bill anyone talked about was whether Bill Clinton got a from Lewinsky. Clinton got a from Lewinsky. Clinton got a from Lewinsky. >> So my point is just again, I'm not sure >> So my point is just again, I'm not sure >> So my point is just again, I'm not sure we're focused on the right things. I we're focused on the right things. I we're focused on the right things. I suspect we'll look back on this time suspect we'll look back on this time suspect we'll look back on this time period as the beginning of a new golden period as the beginning of a new golden period as the beginning of a new golden age. age. age. >> I agree. >> I agree. >> I agree. >> I think you're correct. And just in >> I think you're correct. And just in >> I think you're correct. And just in terms of the hand ringing comment, terms of the hand ringing comment, terms of the hand ringing comment, anytime a statistic is 10 15%, I anytime a statistic is 10 15%, I anytime a statistic is 10 15%, I highlight it. I wouldn't use hand highlight it. I wouldn't use hand highlight it. I wouldn't use hand ringing. I would just say we generally ringing. I would just say we generally ringing. I would just say we generally look at that when we went from 4.1% look at that when we went from 4.1% look at that when we went from 4.1% which is where Trump inherited it went which is where Trump inherited it went which is where Trump inherited it went up to 4.5 it's about a 10% increase in up to 4.5 it's about a 10% increase in up to 4.5 it's about a 10% increase in one year if that trend were to continue one year if that trend were to continue one year if that trend were to continue that would be notable but to your point that would be notable but to your point that would be notable but to your point it's gone down and that is because the it's gone down and that is because the it's gone down and that is because the border I believe the southern border is border I believe the southern border is border I believe the southern border is closed and as you're pointing out we've closed and as you're pointing out we've closed and as you're pointing out we've got a lot of good news in the economy so got a lot of good news in the economy so got a lot of good news in the economy so people are hiring still and uh so we are people are hiring still and uh so we are people are hiring still and uh so we are in really good economic shape I would in really good economic shape I would in really good economic shape I would say it's hard to deny that yeah say it's hard to deny that yeah say it's hard to deny that yeah >> all The job creation has been enjoyed by >> all The job creation has been enjoyed by >> all The job creation has been enjoyed by native born Americans as well. All the native born Americans as well. All the native born Americans as well. All the job loss has been on non-nativeborn job loss has been on non-nativeborn job loss has been on non-nativeborn Americans which is pretty remarkable. So Americans which is pretty remarkable. So Americans which is pretty remarkable. So that I think is also going to acrude to that I think is also going to acrude to that I think is also going to acrude to the benefit of of more Americans. By the the benefit of of more Americans. By the the benefit of of more Americans. By the way, just on the unemployment thing, way, just on the unemployment thing, way, just on the unemployment thing, there was a slight tick up in October there was a slight tick up in October there was a slight tick up in October because of the October one buyouts. because of the October one buyouts. because of the October one buyouts. Remember Doge created the the buyout Remember Doge created the the buyout Remember Doge created the the buyout program program program >> and September or October? When did they >> and September or October? When did they >> and September or October? When did they hit? hit? hit? >> It was October 1st was the deadline for >> It was October 1st was the deadline for >> It was October 1st was the deadline for that. And so we had a tick up in that. And so we had a tick up in that. And so we had a tick up in unemployment related to that. But unemployment related to that. But unemployment related to that. But remember, all of those were voluntary remember, all of those were voluntary remember, all of those were voluntary buyouts. They all chose the Doge option. buyouts. They all chose the Doge option. buyouts. They all chose the Doge option. That's what created the tick up in That's what created the tick up in That's what created the tick up in unemployment, but again, it was all, I unemployment, but again, it was all, I unemployment, but again, it was all, I think, a good and voluntary tick up. And think, a good and voluntary tick up. And think, a good and voluntary tick up. And now the unemployment rate has ticked now the unemployment rate has ticked now the unemployment rate has ticked down. So again, the job creation right down. So again, the job creation right down. So again, the job creation right now is strong. now is strong. now is strong. >> And to just put a finer point on it, the >> And to just put a finer point on it, the >> And to just put a finer point on it, the top two areas where illegal aliens are top two areas where illegal aliens are top two areas where illegal aliens are working in the United States, most working in the United States, most working in the United States, most people don't know this, construction, people don't know this, construction, people don't know this, construction, number one, and the second one is number one, and the second one is number one, and the second one is leisure and hospitality. So you got two leisure and hospitality. So you got two leisure and hospitality. So you got two and a half million people working in and a half million people working in and a half million people working in those two categories. Which is why I those two categories. Which is why I those two categories. Which is why I said if you want to see more Americans said if you want to see more Americans said if you want to see more Americans take jobs and you want to see wages go take jobs and you want to see wages go take jobs and you want to see wages go up. If you went to those businesses and up. If you went to those businesses and up. If you went to those businesses and you find those businesses for hiring you find those businesses for hiring you find those businesses for hiring illegal aliens, which is the easiest illegal aliens, which is the easiest illegal aliens, which is the easiest thing in the world to do, you just show thing in the world to do, you just show thing in the world to do, you just show up at a construction site, you take up at a construction site, you take up at a construction site, you take pictures of everybody who is working pictures of everybody who is working pictures of everybody who is working illegally, which is what they used to do illegally, which is what they used to do illegally, which is what they used to do in the ICE agency. They would then do um in the ICE agency. They would then do um in the ICE agency. They would then do um you know surveillance of construction you know surveillance of construction you know surveillance of construction sites and then they would go and find sites and then they would go and find sites and then they would go and find the construction person and then they the construction person and then they the construction person and then they had to hire Americans or that had to hire Americans or that had to hire Americans or that construction company would get in construction company would get in construction company would get in serious trouble. There's been serious trouble. There's been serious trouble. There's been multi-million dollar fines done over the multi-million dollar fines done over the multi-million dollar fines done over the last 20 years specifically on last 20 years specifically on last 20 years specifically on construction sites and that would drive construction sites and that would drive construction sites and that would drive more people to raise the wages of more people to raise the wages of more people to raise the wages of construction workers which would even construction workers which would even construction workers which would even lower unemployment more and increase lower unemployment more and increase lower unemployment more and increase labor participation. That's where the labor participation. That's where the labor participation. That's where the big win is. Go to construction sites. big win is. Go to construction sites. big win is. Go to construction sites. >> You want you want ICE to randomly raid >> You want you want ICE to randomly raid >> You want you want ICE to randomly raid employers, construction sites. employers, construction sites. employers, construction sites. >> I would use the term raid. Raid is no. I >> I would use the term raid. Raid is no. I >> I would use the term raid. Raid is no. I survey survey survey >> and just check everyone's papers. You >> and just check everyone's papers. You >> and just check everyone's papers. You want I showing up everywhere. You want want I showing up everywhere. You want want I showing up everywhere. You want number one, they're doing this already, number one, they're doing this already, number one, they're doing this already, gentlemen. This is well within their gentlemen. This is well within their gentlemen. This is well within their purview. Look up the legal. They have purview. Look up the legal. They have purview. Look up the legal. They have been doing this for 30 years. This is been doing this for 30 years. This is been doing this for 30 years. This is actually the technique they used before actually the technique they used before actually the technique they used before raiding cities in a chaotic way. They raiding cities in a chaotic way. They raiding cities in a chaotic way. They went, they surveiled, which is their went, they surveiled, which is their went, they surveiled, which is their right to do. They have the right to do right to do. They have the right to do right to do. They have the right to do that. I didn't say raid. I said surveil. that. I didn't say raid. I said surveil. that. I didn't say raid. I said surveil. That is a peaceful, quiet thing to do. That is a peaceful, quiet thing to do. That is a peaceful, quiet thing to do. And then they find business owners. The And then they find business owners. The And then they find business owners. The business owners are the people who are business owners are the people who are business owners are the people who are causing this problem. The if there was causing this problem. The if there was causing this problem. The if there was not a job available in construction for not a job available in construction for not a job available in construction for 20, 30, 40 bucks an hour off the books 20, 30, 40 bucks an hour off the books 20, 30, 40 bucks an hour off the books and not paying taxes, those immigrants and not paying taxes, those immigrants and not paying taxes, those immigrants who are crossing illegally would not be who are crossing illegally would not be who are crossing illegally would not be here. If they couldn't get a $30 an hour here. If they couldn't get a $30 an hour here. If they couldn't get a $30 an hour off the book job, working at a hotel or off the book job, working at a hotel or off the book job, working at a hotel or as a dishwasher, they would not come. as a dishwasher, they would not come. as a dishwasher, they would not come. And the blame need to stop hiring them. And the blame need to stop hiring them. And the blame need to stop hiring them. What do you mean? What do you mean? What do you mean? >> Surveil surveile. So what is how do they >> Surveil surveile. So what is how do they >> Surveil surveile. So what is how do they how do they with a camera figure out if how do they with a camera figure out if how do they with a camera figure out if someone's illegal? What's the camera someone's illegal? What's the camera someone's illegal? What's the camera figuring out? figuring out? figuring out? >> Okay. So you guys, it's very simple. And >> Okay. So you guys, it's very simple. And >> Okay. So you guys, it's very simple. And I I I >> Oh, you have to scan first and so then >> Oh, you have to scan first and so then >> Oh, you have to scan first and so then you'll know who you guys are. you'll know who you guys are. you'll know who you guys are. >> No, I want to hear I want to hear I want >> No, I want to hear I want to hear I want >> No, I want to hear I want to hear I want to hear you want to hear the answer and to hear you want to hear the answer and to hear you want to hear the answer and how misinformed the three of you are and how misinformed the three of you are and how misinformed the three of you are and biased. I will tell you you're all biased. I will tell you you're all biased. I will tell you you're all misinformed and biased. misinformed and biased. misinformed and biased. >> Surveil someone to figure out they're >> Surveil someone to figure out they're >> Surveil someone to figure out they're illegal. illegal. illegal. >> It's super simple. You go to the >> It's super simple. You go to the >> It's super simple. You go to the construction site. Everybody checks in construction site. Everybody checks in construction site. Everybody checks in their morning. They have a truck. This their morning. They have a truck. This their morning. They have a truck. This has been done for decades, gentlemen. has been done for decades, gentlemen. has been done for decades, gentlemen. They take pictures of everybody. Then They take pictures of everybody. Then They take pictures of everybody. Then they go in at the end of the day after they go in at the end of the day after they go in at the end of the day after surveilling for weeks, Chama. And it's surveilling for weeks, Chama. And it's surveilling for weeks, Chama. And it's they have done this already. This is all they have done this already. This is all they have done this already. This is all facts. They've had multiple cases where facts. They've had multiple cases where facts. They've had multiple cases where they go to the construction site, they they go to the construction site, they they go to the construction site, they take pictures, they take a video, then take pictures, they take a video, then take pictures, they take a video, then they go to the business owner and say, they go to the business owner and say, they go to the business owner and say, "Show us these people's payubs." And the "Show us these people's payubs." And the "Show us these people's payubs." And the business owner goes, "I don't have business owner goes, "I don't have business owner goes, "I don't have payubs for these people." And they say, payubs for these people." And they say, payubs for these people." And they say, "Okay, here's a video of them working "Okay, here's a video of them working "Okay, here's a video of them working for 8 hours a day. Where's their payub? for 8 hours a day. Where's their payub? for 8 hours a day. Where's their payub? Show us their taxes. The businesses are Show us their taxes. The businesses are Show us their taxes. The businesses are paying people off the books. That is tax paying people off the books. That is tax paying people off the books. That is tax evasion. And then they got multi-million evasion. And then they got multi-million evasion. And then they got multi-million dollar fines. Here's a very important dollar fines. Here's a very important dollar fines. Here's a very important case. This is from back in 2017. The case. This is from back in 2017. The case. This is from back in 2017. The Justice Department and ICE went after a Justice Department and ICE went after a Justice Department and ICE went after a group which was hiring illegal aliens. group which was hiring illegal aliens. group which was hiring illegal aliens. This is the largest payment ever in an This is the largest payment ever in an This is the largest payment ever in an immigration case. 95 million recovered, immigration case. 95 million recovered, immigration case. 95 million recovered, 80 million criminal forfeite, 15 million 80 million criminal forfeite, 15 million 80 million criminal forfeite, 15 million in civil payments. That represented, in civil payments. That represented, in civil payments. That represented, according to our Justice Department in according to our Justice Department in according to our Justice Department in 2017, the largest ever levied 2017, the largest ever levied 2017, the largest ever levied immigration case, we can solve almost immigration case, we can solve almost immigration case, we can solve almost all of the immigration issues with the all of the immigration issues with the all of the immigration issues with the exception of maybe criminal gangs. just exception of maybe criminal gangs. just exception of maybe criminal gangs. just by doing basic surveillance, basic, you by doing basic surveillance, basic, you by doing basic surveillance, basic, you know, detective work, asking these know, detective work, asking these know, detective work, asking these businesses to show the payubs of the businesses to show the payubs of the businesses to show the payubs of the people working for them. And ICE has people working for them. And ICE has people working for them. And ICE has been doing this. They've already been been doing this. They've already been been doing this. They've already been doing this. doing this. doing this. >> Your suggestion is to do this for every >> Your suggestion is to do this for every >> Your suggestion is to do this for every company in America. company in America. company in America. >> Okay. So again, you're being hyperbolic >> Okay. So again, you're being hyperbolic >> Okay. So again, you're being hyperbolic and you're not negot and you're not negot and you're not negot >> I said I said this at the top. You pick >> I said I said this at the top. You pick >> I said I said this at the top. You pick the number one employer of illegal the number one employer of illegal the number one employer of illegal aliens, 2.5 million people working aliens, 2.5 million people working aliens, 2.5 million people working construction. You start with the largest construction. You start with the largest construction. You start with the largest construction sites and then you work construction sites and then you work construction sites and then you work backwards. Then you start with the backwards. Then you start with the backwards. Then you start with the largest restaurant and hotel chains. largest restaurant and hotel chains. largest restaurant and hotel chains. >> If Stephen Miller were doing this, you'd >> If Stephen Miller were doing this, you'd >> If Stephen Miller were doing this, you'd say he's not compassionate enough. You say he's not compassionate enough. You say he's not compassionate enough. You call him a fascist. call him a fascist. call him a fascist. >> I have Nope. Incorrect. Once again, >> I have Nope. Incorrect. Once again, >> I have Nope. Incorrect. Once again, incorrect. I have stated publicly here incorrect. I have stated publicly here incorrect. I have stated publicly here on the pod and I have stated publicly on on the pod and I have stated publicly on on the pod and I have stated publicly on Twitter that this is actually what Twitter that this is actually what Twitter that this is actually what Steven Miller should do because this Steven Miller should do because this Steven Miller should do because this would go after the people who are would go after the people who are would go after the people who are causing the immigration problem. The causing the immigration problem. The causing the immigration problem. The people immigration problem are the people immigration problem are the people immigration problem are the people. Let me finish. Let me finish people. Let me finish. Let me finish people. Let me finish. Let me finish that. The people causing this problem that. The people causing this problem that. The people causing this problem are the business owners. They are are the business owners. They are are the business owners. They are providing the incentive to come here. providing the incentive to come here. providing the incentive to come here. Steven Miller should stop doing the Steven Miller should stop doing the Steven Miller should stop doing the crazy raids and he should go and just crazy raids and he should go and just crazy raids and he should go and just >> You don't think it's the government >> You don't think it's the government >> You don't think it's the government benefits that are incentivizing people benefits that are incentivizing people benefits that are incentivizing people to come. to come. to come. >> I think that's like far down the list. >> I think that's like far down the list. >> I think that's like far down the list. Two, three, four. Two, three, four. Two, three, four. >> Far down the list. >> Far down the list. >> Far down the list. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Is the free healthcare and the free food >> Is the free healthcare and the free food >> Is the free healthcare and the free food and the free. and the free. and the free. >> Actually have statistics. I can give you >> Actually have statistics. I can give you >> Actually have statistics. I can give you a statistic on. According to this LA a statistic on. According to this LA a statistic on. According to this LA Times survey, 75% of immigrants come Times survey, 75% of immigrants come Times survey, 75% of immigrants come here for better job opportunities. here for better job opportunities. here for better job opportunities. People coming to America illegally are People coming to America illegally are People coming to America illegally are coming here for economic reasons. They coming here for economic reasons. They coming here for economic reasons. They are not coming here to commit crimes. are not coming here to commit crimes. are not coming here to commit crimes. They are not coming here to get They are not coming here to get They are not coming here to get benefits. That is way down the list. benefits. That is way down the list. benefits. That is way down the list. That is a small percentage. That is a small percentage. That is a small percentage. >> How is this going to deport all the gang >> How is this going to deport all the gang >> How is this going to deport all the gang bangers, the rapists, the murderers, the bangers, the rapists, the murderers, the bangers, the rapists, the murderers, the ones who aren't working on a farm? ones who aren't working on a farm? ones who aren't working on a farm? They're not doing They're not doing They're not doing >> That's a totally separate issue. They >> That's a totally separate issue. They >> That's a totally separate issue. They should go do that. That's a separate should go do that. That's a separate should go do that. That's a separate issue. They should go do those and go issue. They should go do those and go issue. They should go do those and go after after after >> that is what ICE was doing. They're >> that is what ICE was doing. They're >> that is what ICE was doing. They're trying to round up the known criminals trying to round up the known criminals trying to round up the known criminals for whom they get warrants and then they for whom they get warrants and then they for whom they get warrants and then they capture them and deport them. That's a capture them and deport them. That's a capture them and deport them. That's a separate problem. separate problem. separate problem. >> Yeah, those are two separate problems. >> Yeah, those are two separate problems. >> Yeah, those are two separate problems. I'm not talking about the problem of I'm not talking about the problem of I'm not talking about the problem of gang bangers. You can do gang bangers. gang bangers. You can do gang bangers. gang bangers. You can do gang bangers. I'm talking about if you actually want I'm talking about if you actually want I'm talking about if you actually want to move big numbers. The gang bangers to move big numbers. The gang bangers to move big numbers. The gang bangers are small number. The people working in are small number. The people working in are small number. The people working in construction working at hotels are a big construction working at hotels are a big construction working at hotels are a big number. Yeah, they're both equally number. Yeah, they're both equally number. Yeah, they're both equally important. Saxs, we're in agreement. important. Saxs, we're in agreement. important. Saxs, we're in agreement. Okay. Okay. Okay. >> Yeah. The the thing we're not doing at >> Yeah. The the thing we're not doing at >> Yeah. The the thing we're not doing at scale is going after the businesses that scale is going after the businesses that scale is going after the businesses that are creating the incentive for the are creating the incentive for the are creating the incentive for the majority of people who come here. majority of people who come here. majority of people who come here. Ferrari has a new car coming out. It's Ferrari has a new car coming out. It's Ferrari has a new car coming out. It's going to be their first all electric going to be their first all electric going to be their first all electric vehicle. Very polarizing. vehicle. Very polarizing. vehicle. Very polarizing. Here's an illustration of the vehicle Here's an illustration of the vehicle Here's an illustration of the vehicle from Car and Driver. This is not the from Car and Driver. This is not the from Car and Driver. This is not the accurate one because it's going to be accurate one because it's going to be accurate one because it's going to be revealed in May, but this is what they revealed in May, but this is what they revealed in May, but this is what they think it's going to look like. 1,000 think it's going to look like. 1,000 think it's going to look like. 1,000 plus horsepower, four electric motors, 0 plus horsepower, four electric motors, 0 plus horsepower, four electric motors, 0 to 60 in under 2.5 seconds. Uh 330 mi to 60 in under 2.5 seconds. Uh 330 mi to 60 in under 2.5 seconds. Uh 330 mi range. It's the heaviest Ferrari ever, range. It's the heaviest Ferrari ever, range. It's the heaviest Ferrari ever, 5100 lb compared to the iconic F40, 5100 lb compared to the iconic F40, 5100 lb compared to the iconic F40, which was but 3,000 lb. It's going to which was but 3,000 lb. It's going to which was but 3,000 lb. It's going to launch in May of 2026. But we got to see launch in May of 2026. But we got to see launch in May of 2026. But we got to see the interior, and this is what the interior, and this is what the interior, and this is what everybody's buzzing about. It's gone everybody's buzzing about. It's gone everybody's buzzing about. It's gone viral on the interwebs. former Apple viral on the interwebs. former Apple viral on the interwebs. former Apple design chief Johnny IV uh on his team design chief Johnny IV uh on his team design chief Johnny IV uh on his team with his partner Mark Nuome who also with his partner Mark Nuome who also with his partner Mark Nuome who also designed the iconic Ford 021C concept designed the iconic Ford 021C concept designed the iconic Ford 021C concept car were involved in this. car were involved in this. car were involved in this. >> Wait, what is that? >> Wait, what is that? >> Wait, what is that? >> Uh it's this is like if you're a car >> Uh it's this is like if you're a car >> Uh it's this is like if you're a car nerd, this was like this incredibly nerd, this was like this incredibly nerd, this was like this incredibly innovative moment in design that never innovative moment in design that never innovative moment in design that never happened that Ford did it. It looks very happened that Ford did it. It looks very happened that Ford did it. It looks very similar to an Apple product. similar to an Apple product. similar to an Apple product. >> Here's the key for the new >> Here's the key for the new >> Here's the key for the new >> looks like an animated character in cars >> looks like an animated character in cars >> looks like an animated character in cars or something like that, you know. You or something like that, you know. You or something like that, you know. You have this beautiful square glass key have this beautiful square glass key have this beautiful square glass key like an iPhone. You put it in and the like an iPhone. You put it in and the like an iPhone. You put it in and the yellow Ferrari yellow drains out and yellow Ferrari yellow drains out and yellow Ferrari yellow drains out and goes into the shifter. That was one goes into the shifter. That was one goes into the shifter. That was one nuance that people thought was very nuance that people thought was very nuance that people thought was very beautiful. The screen looks very Mac beautiful. The screen looks very Mac beautiful. The screen looks very Mac inspired except unlike Tesla which is uh inspired except unlike Tesla which is uh inspired except unlike Tesla which is uh no buttons and removing buttons. They're no buttons and removing buttons. They're no buttons and removing buttons. They're adding buttons here and making the adding buttons here and making the adding buttons here and making the buttons very tactile. All the sports car buttons very tactile. All the sports car buttons very tactile. All the sports car enthusiasts love tactile memory based enthusiasts love tactile memory based enthusiasts love tactile memory based buttons that you can just have fun with buttons that you can just have fun with buttons that you can just have fun with and flip and feel like you're a fighter and flip and feel like you're a fighter and flip and feel like you're a fighter pilot. Finally, pilot. Finally, pilot. Finally, the uh turning the car on is like the uh turning the car on is like the uh turning the car on is like starting up a jet. You have a launch starting up a jet. You have a launch starting up a jet. You have a launch button you twist and press and it makes button you twist and press and it makes button you twist and press and it makes the whole car turn Ferrari orange or the whole car turn Ferrari orange or the whole car turn Ferrari orange or red. And uh yeah, that's the inside red. And uh yeah, that's the inside red. And uh yeah, that's the inside sachs. You buying one or not? You like sachs. You buying one or not? You like sachs. You buying one or not? You like it? it? it? >> I saw I saw everyone just, you know, all >> I saw I saw everyone just, you know, all >> I saw I saw everyone just, you know, all over this design and I thought it was a over this design and I thought it was a over this design and I thought it was a little bit unfair in the sense that I little bit unfair in the sense that I little bit unfair in the sense that I actually overall like the interior. I actually overall like the interior. I actually overall like the interior. I thought it found a compromise between, thought it found a compromise between, thought it found a compromise between, you know, let's call it the all glass you know, let's call it the all glass you know, let's call it the all glass cockpit of a Tesla versus a totally cockpit of a Tesla versus a totally cockpit of a Tesla versus a totally analog old Ferrari interior. Like you analog old Ferrari interior. Like you analog old Ferrari interior. Like you said, it it had a combination of said, it it had a combination of said, it it had a combination of screens, but then also buttons. And they screens, but then also buttons. And they screens, but then also buttons. And they made a point of showing that the buttons made a point of showing that the buttons made a point of showing that the buttons were not only nicely tactile, but they were not only nicely tactile, but they were not only nicely tactile, but they also made pleasing sounds and that kind also made pleasing sounds and that kind also made pleasing sounds and that kind of stuff. It seemed very heavy duty. So, of stuff. It seemed very heavy duty. So, of stuff. It seemed very heavy duty. So, I thought the interior actually was I thought the interior actually was I thought the interior actually was pretty good. Again, nice balance between pretty good. Again, nice balance between pretty good. Again, nice balance between kind of the interior of a race car, the kind of the interior of a race car, the kind of the interior of a race car, the simplicity of that iPad screen, but also simplicity of that iPad screen, but also simplicity of that iPad screen, but also having enough sort of buttons that you having enough sort of buttons that you having enough sort of buttons that you develop muscle memory around where all develop muscle memory around where all develop muscle memory around where all the controls are. You don't have to go the controls are. You don't have to go the controls are. You don't have to go hunting for them through a menu. hunting for them through a menu. hunting for them through a menu. >> I thought the missier wasn't on the >> I thought the missier wasn't on the >> I thought the missier wasn't on the inside. I thought it was on the outside. inside. I thought it was on the outside. inside. I thought it was on the outside. I hate the look of the outside of this I hate the look of the outside of this I hate the look of the outside of this car. car. car. >> It looks to me, >> It looks to me, >> It looks to me, >> by the way, just to be clear, that look >> by the way, just to be clear, that look >> by the way, just to be clear, that look is what people are projecting. It's not is what people are projecting. It's not is what people are projecting. It's not the final version. the final version. the final version. >> I think this is terrible. This to me >> I think this is terrible. This to me >> I think this is terrible. This to me looks like a Corvette maybe or even like looks like a Corvette maybe or even like looks like a Corvette maybe or even like a Franazam. I mean a Franazam. I mean a Franazam. I mean >> it looks like a Model 3. Yeah. >> it looks like a Model 3. Yeah. >> it looks like a Model 3. Yeah. >> I don't like the What's that like the >> I don't like the What's that like the >> I don't like the What's that like the black part of the front or even the black part of the front or even the black part of the front or even the >> grill? >> grill? >> grill? >> The grill. It looks terrible and the >> The grill. It looks terrible and the >> The grill. It looks terrible and the things going on on the sides things going on on the sides things going on on the sides >> and then the back almost looks like a >> and then the back almost looks like a >> and then the back almost looks like a hatchback or something. It's just, you hatchback or something. It's just, you hatchback or something. It's just, you know, uh a Ferrari should look swoopier. know, uh a Ferrari should look swoopier. know, uh a Ferrari should look swoopier. It should look curvier and there should It should look curvier and there should It should look curvier and there should be fewer different pieces to it. be fewer different pieces to it. be fewer different pieces to it. >> 100%. >> 100%. >> 100%. >> So, I don't know. Doesn't look right to >> So, I don't know. Doesn't look right to >> So, I don't know. Doesn't look right to me as a Ferrari, but I thought the me as a Ferrari, but I thought the me as a Ferrari, but I thought the inside actually was was fine. inside actually was was fine. inside actually was was fine. >> I like it. >> I like it. >> I like it. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Chimop, you buyer. When's the last time >> Chimop, you buyer. When's the last time >> Chimop, you buyer. When's the last time you actually drove yourself, Sax? Have you actually drove yourself, Sax? Have you actually drove yourself, Sax? Have you actually used a steering wheel in you actually used a steering wheel in you actually used a steering wheel in the last decade? When's the last time the last decade? When's the last time the last decade? When's the last time you actually used the steering wheel? you actually used the steering wheel? you actually used the steering wheel? >> Full full self-driving has made me a >> Full full self-driving has made me a >> Full full self-driving has made me a driver again because I just set the full driver again because I just set the full driver again because I just set the full self-driving. self-driving. self-driving. >> Wow. And it's such a game changer. Yeah. >> Wow. And it's such a game changer. Yeah. >> Wow. And it's such a game changer. Yeah. >> Well, with with FSD. >> Well, with with FSD. >> Well, with with FSD. >> Yeah. Okay. So, you're now driving >> Yeah. Okay. So, you're now driving >> Yeah. Okay. So, you're now driving around Texas. I like it around Texas. I like it around Texas. I like it >> with FSD. >> with FSD. >> with FSD. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> Okay. >> Because the Uber takes forever. So now >> Because the Uber takes forever. So now >> Because the Uber takes forever. So now I'm just like, you know, I'm just like, you know, I'm just like, you know, >> you you like uh you've always liked to >> you you like uh you've always liked to >> you you like uh you've always liked to drive Jamoth. I think you you drive drive Jamoth. I think you you drive drive Jamoth. I think you you drive yourself these days or you uh yourself these days or you uh yourself these days or you uh >> I drive myself in a Model Y with FSD or >> I drive myself in a Model Y with FSD or >> I drive myself in a Model Y with FSD or I take a Whimo. One of the two. I take a Whimo. One of the two. I take a Whimo. One of the two. >> Yeah, Whimo's in the valley now. Yeah. >> Yeah, Whimo's in the valley now. Yeah. >> Yeah, Whimo's in the valley now. Yeah. On the piss. On the piss. On the piss. >> I've had a Ferrari. >> I've had a Ferrari. >> I've had a Ferrari. What I would tell you is that there's What I would tell you is that there's What I would tell you is that there's just something that's very unique. just something that's very unique. just something that's very unique. There's a Ferrari experience that's There's a Ferrari experience that's There's a Ferrari experience that's different from every other car. different from every other car. different from every other car. And I think that the new CEO, And I think that the new CEO, And I think that the new CEO, Benedtovenia, Benedtovenia, Benedtovenia, is a very talented executive and I think is a very talented executive and I think is a very talented executive and I think that he's probably going to land that he's probably going to land that he's probably going to land something beautiful. something beautiful. something beautiful. The thing is that we are racing against The thing is that we are racing against The thing is that we are racing against time. And I've said this before, but FSD time. And I've said this before, but FSD time. And I've said this before, but FSD and autonomy is going to shift the and autonomy is going to shift the and autonomy is going to shift the number of people that even know what it number of people that even know what it number of people that even know what it means to drive. It will feel like means to drive. It will feel like means to drive. It will feel like when we look at somebody who really when we look at somebody who really when we look at somebody who really embraces thoroughbed racing, it's just embraces thoroughbed racing, it's just embraces thoroughbed racing, it's just going to happen in smaller and smaller going to happen in smaller and smaller going to happen in smaller and smaller places and less and less often. And places and less and less often. And places and less and less often. And that's not because these cars aren't that's not because these cars aren't that's not because these cars aren't beautiful, but it's because the risk beautiful, but it's because the risk beautiful, but it's because the risk will not make any sense for most people will not make any sense for most people will not make any sense for most people under most conditions. And I think under most conditions. And I think under most conditions. And I think that's the big thing that's going to that's the big thing that's going to that's the big thing that's going to change. Like the car culture in America change. Like the car culture in America change. Like the car culture in America was a profound part of the American was a profound part of the American was a profound part of the American culture. You know, driving from A to B culture. You know, driving from A to B culture. You know, driving from A to B on vacation, the sense of freedom, the on vacation, the sense of freedom, the on vacation, the sense of freedom, the building of the interstate highway building of the interstate highway building of the interstate highway system. These were huge parts of what system. These were huge parts of what system. These were huge parts of what made America great and the rails on made America great and the rails on made America great and the rails on which all this productivity sat on top which all this productivity sat on top which all this productivity sat on top of. And now I think it's all going to of. And now I think it's all going to of. And now I think it's all going to change. So I don't know. I mean, I think change. So I don't know. I mean, I think change. So I don't know. I mean, I think the car will probably be beautiful. Like the car will probably be beautiful. Like the car will probably be beautiful. Like Ferraris are beautiful. There's a Ferraris are beautiful. There's a Ferraris are beautiful. There's a Ferrari dealership in Redwood City. And Ferrari dealership in Redwood City. And Ferrari dealership in Redwood City. And whenever I drive by it, I slow down and whenever I drive by it, I slow down and whenever I drive by it, I slow down and I look out. I look out. I look out. >> Yum, yum. >> Yum, yum. >> Yum, yum. >> They make beautiful cars. >> They make beautiful cars. >> They make beautiful cars. >> Piece of art. Yeah. >> Piece of art. Yeah. >> Piece of art. Yeah. >> And I think in places like China and >> And I think in places like China and >> And I think in places like China and India, they're always going to have a India, they're always going to have a India, they're always going to have a market. But I think in places like the market. But I think in places like the market. But I think in places like the United States, it's going to become so United States, it's going to become so United States, it's going to become so expensive to pay for the insurance if expensive to pay for the insurance if expensive to pay for the insurance if you are driving yourself you are driving yourself you are driving yourself >> that the idea that you would buy any car >> that the idea that you would buy any car >> that the idea that you would buy any car is going to feel tougher and tougher is going to feel tougher and tougher is going to feel tougher and tougher just because I think the math is going just because I think the math is going just because I think the math is going to be tough. But the experience inside to be tough. But the experience inside to be tough. But the experience inside of the Ferrari is second to none. So it of the Ferrari is second to none. So it of the Ferrari is second to none. So it probably is that there's going to be a probably is that there's going to be a probably is that there's going to be a bunch of high-end cars like Ferrari bunch of high-end cars like Ferrari bunch of high-end cars like Ferrari where you pay for the experience, you're where you pay for the experience, you're where you pay for the experience, you're in a position to pay for the car, you'll in a position to pay for the car, you'll in a position to pay for the car, you'll pay for the insurance, the luxury, pay for the insurance, the luxury, pay for the insurance, the luxury, >> all of it, and then the rest of us will >> all of it, and then the rest of us will >> all of it, and then the rest of us will be using FSD or Whimo be using FSD or Whimo be using FSD or Whimo >> 100%. >> 100%. >> 100%. I we have two Model Y's and we have to I we have two Model Y's and we have to I we have two Model Y's and we have to get another car and it's like, well, get another car and it's like, well, get another car and it's like, well, what else can we buy? We have no choice. what else can we buy? We have no choice. what else can we buy? We have no choice. It's either buy one of the last X's. It's either buy one of the last X's. It's either buy one of the last X's. >> I'm so mad the X well deprecating the X >> I'm so mad the X well deprecating the X >> I'm so mad the X well deprecating the X really bought I have a real problem now really bought I have a real problem now really bought I have a real problem now which is I have five kids so the X is which is I have five kids so the X is which is I have five kids so the X is the only car that can manage seven the only car that can manage seven the only car that can manage seven people so I need I need a new people so I need I need a new people so I need I need a new >> there is a three row by the way Model Y >> there is a three row by the way Model Y >> there is a three row by the way Model Y but it's a bit tight. but it's a bit tight. but it's a bit tight. >> It's a bit tight. It's not >> It's a bit tight. It's not >> It's a bit tight. It's not >> it's a bit tight. I This is I I wish >> it's a bit tight. I This is I I wish >> it's a bit tight. I This is I I wish Elon would have made the minivan or the Elon would have made the minivan or the Elon would have made the minivan or the three row SUV and who knows maybe he three row SUV and who knows maybe he three row SUV and who knows maybe he does someday. When I was in Abu Dhabi, I does someday. When I was in Abu Dhabi, I does someday. When I was in Abu Dhabi, I saw my dream car. It is this Lexus saw my dream car. It is this Lexus saw my dream car. It is this Lexus minivan and the doors open and it's like minivan and the doors open and it's like minivan and the doors open and it's like first class airline seats. first class airline seats. first class airline seats. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> And the front is completely blacked out. >> And the front is completely blacked out. >> And the front is completely blacked out. So you have total privacy. So you have total privacy. So you have total privacy. This car. Yes. This car. This car. Yes. This car. This car. Yes. This car. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> I >> I >> I >> This is not It's not for sale in the US. >> This is not It's not for sale in the US. >> This is not It's not for sale in the US. >> It's not available in America. Why is >> It's not available in America. Why is >> It's not available in America. Why is this car or minivan, whatever, not this car or minivan, whatever, not this car or minivan, whatever, not available in the United States? available in the United States? available in the United States? >> I think it's the Lexus LM. And then >> I think it's the Lexus LM. And then >> I think it's the Lexus LM. And then there's the Alfred in Japan. My favorite there's the Alfred in Japan. My favorite there's the Alfred in Japan. My favorite cars. cars. cars. >> This is the interior. >> This is the interior. >> This is the interior. >> Show the view captain's chairs. It's got >> Show the view captain's chairs. It's got >> Show the view captain's chairs. It's got a full screen and divider between the a full screen and divider between the a full screen and divider between the two with the drivers in the front. two with the drivers in the front. two with the drivers in the front. >> Um and then you have this luxurious. >> Um and then you have this luxurious. >> Um and then you have this luxurious. Those aren't the captain's chair. Show Those aren't the captain's chair. Show Those aren't the captain's chair. Show the captain. There's the captain. the captain. There's the captain. the captain. There's the captain. >> See those beautiful captain's chairs? >> See those beautiful captain's chairs? >> See those beautiful captain's chairs? They're gorgeous. Basically like an They're gorgeous. Basically like an They're gorgeous. Basically like an executive van. executive van. executive van. >> These are like Etihad >> These are like Etihad >> These are like Etihad first class airline seats. It's first class airline seats. It's first class airline seats. It's unbelievable. Look at these. Look at unbelievable. Look at these. Look at unbelievable. Look at these. Look at these two seats. these two seats. these two seats. >> Unbelievable. Gorgeous. And you have a >> Unbelievable. Gorgeous. And you have a >> Unbelievable. Gorgeous. And you have a full monitor in front of you, David. You full monitor in front of you, David. You full monitor in front of you, David. You press a button and the monitor rises and press a button and the monitor rises and press a button and the monitor rises and falls so you can talk to your driver or falls so you can talk to your driver or falls so you can talk to your driver or have CNBC on. have CNBC on. have CNBC on. >> I like getting in and out of SUVs or >> I like getting in and out of SUVs or >> I like getting in and out of SUVs or minivans. The height is good for me. minivans. The height is good for me. minivans. The height is good for me. >> So easy to get. And the Alfred is the >> So easy to get. And the Alfred is the >> So easy to get. And the Alfred is the other one. None of these are available other one. None of these are available other one. None of these are available in the US. These are the number one cars in the US. These are the number one cars in the US. These are the number one cars in China, Singapore, the Middle East for in China, Singapore, the Middle East for in China, Singapore, the Middle East for chauffeer driven cars. They're chauffeer driven cars. They're chauffeer driven cars. They're incredible. incredible. incredible. >> It's called what? An Alfred. What's >> It's called what? An Alfred. What's >> It's called what? An Alfred. What's that? that? that? >> Alfred is the Toyota version. And then >> Alfred is the Toyota version. And then >> Alfred is the Toyota version. And then Lexus is obviously the higher brand of Lexus is obviously the higher brand of Lexus is obviously the higher brand of Toyota and they make I think it's called Toyota and they make I think it's called Toyota and they make I think it's called the LS is the name for these. Cannot get the LS is the name for these. Cannot get the LS is the name for these. Cannot get them in. them in. them in. >> All right, boys. I love you very much. >> All right, boys. I love you very much. >> All right, boys. I love you very much. That's another amazing episode of the That's another amazing episode of the That's another amazing episode of the Allin podcast. 261 weeks and counting. Allin podcast. 261 weeks and counting. Allin podcast. 261 weeks and counting. Strong. Strong. Strong. >> Episode 261. >> Episode 261. >> Episode 261. >> I think it's 261. Yeah. >> I think it's 261. Yeah. >> I think it's 261. Yeah. >> All right. Back at you. Let's go. >> All right. Back at you. Let's go. >> All right. Back at you. Let's go. >> Love you boys. Love you. >> Let your winners ride. >> Let your winners ride. Rainman David >> and it said we open sourced it to the >> and it said we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with fans and they've just gone crazy with fans and they've just gone crazy with it. it. it. >> Queen of besties are besties are my dog taking a notice in your driveway. Oh man, my habitasher will meet up. Oh man, my habitasher will meet up. >> We should all just get a room and just >> We should all just get a room and just >> We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy cuz they're all have one big huge orgy cuz they're all have one big huge orgy cuz they're all just useless. It's like this like sexual just useless. It's like this like sexual just useless. It's like this like sexual tension that we just need to release tension that we just need to release tension that we just need to release somehow. >> Your feet. >> Your feet. We need to get Mercury's back.