Brutally honest guide to not losing money in the market

If you could tell me something in the If you could tell me something in the next 15 minutes that would make me a next 15 minutes that would make me a next 15 minutes that would make me a better investor, what's the first point better investor, what's the first point better investor, what's the first point you would just hammer into my head? you would just hammer into my head? you would just hammer into my head? >> Oh my god. Put the phone down. Stop >> Oh my god. Put the phone down. Stop >> Oh my god. Put the phone down. Stop trading. >> So I think the interesting place to >> So I think the interesting place to start is we've had a few different start is we've had a few different start is we've had a few different people from the school of investing people from the school of investing people from the school of investing wisdom come on sort of the value wisdom come on sort of the value wisdom come on sort of the value investing genealogy. And me and Sam, investing genealogy. And me and Sam, investing genealogy. And me and Sam, although we are not investors, we're although we are not investors, we're although we are not investors, we're definitely like entrepreneurs first and definitely like entrepreneurs first and definitely like entrepreneurs first and then, you know, investing as a sort of then, you know, investing as a sort of then, you know, investing as a sort of hobby sport type of thing, we're so hobby sport type of thing, we're so hobby sport type of thing, we're so attracted to it. We love the sort of attracted to it. We love the sort of attracted to it. We love the sort of investment wisdom, especially especially investment wisdom, especially especially investment wisdom, especially especially the your version, which is the the the your version, which is the the the your version, which is the the ashucks common sense version of ashucks common sense version of ashucks common sense version of investing, which is less about how to be investing, which is less about how to be investing, which is less about how to be super smart and do advanced things and super smart and do advanced things and super smart and do advanced things and just how to be less stupid than you just how to be less stupid than you just how to be less stupid than you already are. And don't worry, you'll be already are. And don't worry, you'll be already are. And don't worry, you'll be fine. And so, I'm excited to talk to fine. And so, I'm excited to talk to fine. And so, I'm excited to talk to you. You have a cool story. you uh you you. You have a cool story. you uh you you. You have a cool story. you uh you started off really in the content game, started off really in the content game, started off really in the content game, in the media game, blogging back in Geio in the media game, blogging back in Geio in the media game, blogging back in Geio Cities early on with podcasting and Cities early on with podcasting and Cities early on with podcasting and built a large uh investment advisory built a large uh investment advisory built a large uh investment advisory shop uh called uh named after yourself. shop uh called uh named after yourself. shop uh called uh named after yourself. I think you guys got to what? I think you guys got to what? I think you guys got to what? >> That was a placeholder, by the way. That >> That was a placeholder, by the way. That >> That was a placeholder, by the way. That was not supposed to be permanent. Like, was not supposed to be permanent. Like, was not supposed to be permanent. Like, let's just call it Rit Holtz for now. let's just call it Rit Holtz for now. let's just call it Rit Holtz for now. Someone else said, and we'll find a Someone else said, and we'll find a Someone else said, and we'll find a better name. And then we never found a better name. And then we never found a better name. And then we never found a better name. C better name. C better name. C >> can we ask you to brag for a minute? I >> can we ask you to brag for a minute? I >> can we ask you to brag for a minute? I know that I I think it's like a 8 know that I I think it's like a 8 know that I I think it's like a 8 billion AUM business. billion AUM business. billion AUM business. >> So, the weird thing about the financial >> So, the weird thing about the financial >> So, the weird thing about the financial services industry, but before I before I services industry, but before I before I services industry, but before I before I brag on the firm, the background is uh brag on the firm, the background is uh brag on the firm, the background is uh go to law school, do really well, hate go to law school, do really well, hate go to law school, do really well, hate being a lawyer, a client is running a being a lawyer, a client is running a being a lawyer, a client is running a trading desk that was a predecessor shop trading desk that was a predecessor shop trading desk that was a predecessor shop to Erade. And so, I started on a trading to Erade. And so, I started on a trading to Erade. And so, I started on a trading desk and found it was just mayhem. It desk and found it was just mayhem. It desk and found it was just mayhem. It was just random and and volatile and I was just random and and volatile and I was just random and and volatile and I was more fascinated by why the people was more fascinated by why the people was more fascinated by why the people around me some days were killing it, around me some days were killing it, around me some days were killing it, some days were getting killed, like some days were getting killed, like some days were getting killed, like what's going on with their process? And what's going on with their process? And what's going on with their process? And that sent me down the rabbit hole of um that sent me down the rabbit hole of um that sent me down the rabbit hole of um behavioral finance. It just was the only behavioral finance. It just was the only behavioral finance. It just was the only explanation I found as to why the same explanation I found as to why the same explanation I found as to why the same person could be doing really well one person could be doing really well one person could be doing really well one week and applying the same process gets week and applying the same process gets week and applying the same process gets shellacked the next week. It's shellacked the next week. It's shellacked the next week. It's decision-m, its emotions, it's uh decision-m, its emotions, it's uh decision-m, its emotions, it's uh cognitive biases. cognitive biases. cognitive biases. >> Can you explain your uh Christmas tree >> Can you explain your uh Christmas tree >> Can you explain your uh Christmas tree analogy for for constructing a analogy for for constructing a analogy for for constructing a portfolio? portfolio? portfolio? >> Sure, that's really easy. So we know >> Sure, that's really easy. So we know >> Sure, that's really easy. So we know that historically that historically that historically very few people beat the index on a very few people beat the index on a very few people beat the index on a regular basis. In any given year less regular basis. In any given year less regular basis. In any given year less than half of active managers beat their than half of active managers beat their than half of active managers beat their index. You take that to five year it's index. You take that to five year it's index. You take that to five year it's something like 21%. You take it to 10 something like 21%. You take it to 10 something like 21%. You take it to 10 years uh it's it's less than 10%. One years uh it's it's less than 10%. One years uh it's it's less than 10%. One out of 10 people. out of 10 people. out of 10 people. >> So that includes like huge firms >> So that includes like huge firms >> So that includes like huge firms >> includes everybody any active mutual >> includes everybody any active mutual >> includes everybody any active mutual fund ETF hedge fund whatever. and then fund ETF hedge fund whatever. and then fund ETF hedge fund whatever. and then go to 20 years and it's a handful of go to 20 years and it's a handful of go to 20 years and it's a handful of names, you know, Peter Lynch, Warren names, you know, Peter Lynch, Warren names, you know, Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, etc. So, if the core of your Buffett, etc. So, if the core of your Buffett, etc. So, if the core of your portfolio is a broad index, you know, portfolio is a broad index, you know, portfolio is a broad index, you know, you can't get alpha, meaning you can't get alpha, meaning you can't get alpha, meaning outperformance, if you're not at least outperformance, if you're not at least outperformance, if you're not at least starting with beta. And when we say starting with beta. And when we say starting with beta. And when we say people don't beat their index, it means people don't beat their index, it means people don't beat their index, it means not only are they not getting what the not only are they not getting what the not only are they not getting what the market gives them, they're getting less market gives them, they're getting less market gives them, they're getting less than that. So, forget beating what the than that. So, forget beating what the than that. So, forget beating what the market gets, they're not even getting market gets, they're not even getting market gets, they're not even getting what the market gets. So, pick a number what the market gets. So, pick a number what the market gets. So, pick a number 50 60 70% of your portfolio is that core 50 60 70% of your portfolio is that core 50 60 70% of your portfolio is that core and by core index I mean um US and by core index I mean um US and by core index I mean um US broad-based market indexes uh Vanguard's broad-based market indexes uh Vanguard's broad-based market indexes uh Vanguard's VO last week became the first ETF over a VO last week became the first ETF over a VO last week became the first ETF over a trillion dollars and that's just a super trillion dollars and that's just a super trillion dollars and that's just a super lowcost broad index. You want to own lowcost broad index. You want to own lowcost broad index. You want to own some overseas stocks that uh overseas some overseas stocks that uh overseas some overseas stocks that uh overseas indexes that's fine. Now, the tree is indexes that's fine. Now, the tree is indexes that's fine. Now, the tree is the the garland, the decoration, the the the garland, the decoration, the the the garland, the decoration, the lights, the tinsel. That's whatever lights, the tinsel. That's whatever lights, the tinsel. That's whatever stink of your own you want to put on stink of your own you want to put on stink of your own you want to put on your portfolio. So, if you like your portfolio. So, if you like your portfolio. So, if you like momentum, great. Add that. You want a momentum, great. Add that. You want a momentum, great. Add that. You want a little more tech, however you want to little more tech, however you want to little more tech, however you want to decorate it. You know, we we've looked decorate it. You know, we we've looked decorate it. You know, we we've looked at these assortments of different at these assortments of different at these assortments of different portfolios. They all more or less end up portfolios. They all more or less end up portfolios. They all more or less end up in a similar place. Some are a little in a similar place. Some are a little in a similar place. Some are a little better, some are a little worse. They better, some are a little worse. They better, some are a little worse. They all end up trailing the index. If all end up trailing the index. If all end up trailing the index. If twothirds of your money is in a broad twothirds of your money is in a broad twothirds of your money is in a broad index, well, at least you know you're index, well, at least you know you're index, well, at least you know you're starting with that basis point and hey, starting with that basis point and hey, starting with that basis point and hey, I think Japan is great. I'm going to own I think Japan is great. I'm going to own I think Japan is great. I'm going to own EWJ or I think India is the next big EWJ or I think India is the next big EWJ or I think India is the next big country after Korea, so I'm going to own country after Korea, so I'm going to own country after Korea, so I'm going to own that ETF. If if you want to have a that ETF. If if you want to have a that ETF. If if you want to have a little bit of decoration on the tree, little bit of decoration on the tree, little bit of decoration on the tree, that's fine. Just recognize you're that's fine. Just recognize you're that's fine. Just recognize you're aiming to outperform aiming to outperform aiming to outperform and the odds are very much that you're and the odds are very much that you're and the odds are very much that you're going to underperform. So, so is this a going to underperform. So, so is this a going to underperform. So, so is this a little bit like when you do a diet and little bit like when you do a diet and little bit like when you do a diet and they're like, "Yeah, we're going to do a they're like, "Yeah, we're going to do a they're like, "Yeah, we're going to do a cheat meal on Sunday." And it's not that cheat meal on Sunday." And it's not that cheat meal on Sunday." And it's not that the cheat meal is good for you. It's the cheat meal is good for you. It's the cheat meal is good for you. It's just that it's probably the only thing just that it's probably the only thing just that it's probably the only thing that's going to keep you on on the guard that's going to keep you on on the guard that's going to keep you on on the guard rails of of the other six days of the rails of of the other six days of the rails of of the other six days of the week being on track. Is that why you week being on track. Is that why you week being on track. Is that why you even have the decorations or would it even have the decorations or would it even have the decorations or would it just be better to be 100% in the passive just be better to be 100% in the passive just be better to be 100% in the passive index and call it a day? index and call it a day? index and call it a day? >> So, my cheat meal is the cowboy account. >> So, my cheat meal is the cowboy account. >> So, my cheat meal is the cowboy account. I We have clients. Listen, what's more I We have clients. Listen, what's more I We have clients. Listen, what's more fun? What's sexier than talking about fun? What's sexier than talking about fun? What's sexier than talking about investing in startups, investing in the investing in startups, investing in the investing in startups, investing in the hot new um publicly traded technology? hot new um publicly traded technology? hot new um publicly traded technology? Uh you look at all the things that we Uh you look at all the things that we Uh you look at all the things that we talk about the media, television, print, talk about the media, television, print, talk about the media, television, print, web. It's it's never about own a broadly web. It's it's never about own a broadly web. It's it's never about own a broadly diversified portfolio of lowcost diversified portfolio of lowcost diversified portfolio of lowcost indexes, rebalance every few years, see indexes, rebalance every few years, see indexes, rebalance every few years, see in a few decades. Now, what do you do in a few decades. Now, what do you do in a few decades. Now, what do you do with the other 23 hours and and 59 with the other 23 hours and and 59 with the other 23 hours and and 59 minutes a day if you have to fill it minutes a day if you have to fill it minutes a day if you have to fill it with content? So, all this sexy news, with content? So, all this sexy news, with content? So, all this sexy news, all this exciting stuff, that's that's all this exciting stuff, that's that's all this exciting stuff, that's that's 90% of the fire hose. You see, 90% of the fire hose. You see, 90% of the fire hose. You see, >> would that be the best finance channel? >> would that be the best finance channel? >> would that be the best finance channel? They just say that at the top of every They just say that at the top of every They just say that at the top of every hour and then they just play like Home hour and then they just play like Home hour and then they just play like Home Alone reruns for for the next 59 Alone reruns for for the next 59 Alone reruns for for the next 59 minutes. And and actually, those minutes. And and actually, those minutes. And and actually, those investors would do way better than investors would do way better than investors would do way better than anybody watching. anybody watching. anybody watching. I tell the metaphor of this little I tell the metaphor of this little I tell the metaphor of this little gardening channel and they have a tree gardening channel and they have a tree gardening channel and they have a tree cam. They plant a tree and it just it's cam. They plant a tree and it just it's cam. They plant a tree and it just it's very bucolic and relaxing and it's just very bucolic and relaxing and it's just very bucolic and relaxing and it's just there and everybody is happy with it and there and everybody is happy with it and there and everybody is happy with it and then the channel gets bought by private then the channel gets bought by private then the channel gets bought by private equity and now they got to sex it up. So equity and now they got to sex it up. So equity and now they got to sex it up. So everything becomes a fake conflict. everything becomes a fake conflict. everything becomes a fake conflict. That's the wrong tree for this area. Too That's the wrong tree for this area. Too That's the wrong tree for this area. Too much water. You planted it too deep and much water. You planted it too deep and much water. You planted it too deep and no it's not deep enough. It's not no it's not deep enough. It's not no it's not deep enough. It's not getting enough. And meanwhile, the tree getting enough. And meanwhile, the tree getting enough. And meanwhile, the tree could not care less about what they're could not care less about what they're could not care less about what they're saying. It just quietly grows. And that saying. It just quietly grows. And that saying. It just quietly grows. And that is how I think of the media and and the is how I think of the media and and the is how I think of the media and and the broad index. Say what you want. Vanguard broad index. Say what you want. Vanguard broad index. Say what you want. Vanguard and Black Rockck have between the two of and Black Rockck have between the two of and Black Rockck have between the two of them have $25 trillion in assets because them have $25 trillion in assets because them have $25 trillion in assets because they've dominated lowcost indexing. And they've dominated lowcost indexing. And they've dominated lowcost indexing. And I think the financial crisis was very I think the financial crisis was very I think the financial crisis was very much the last straw for mom and pop much the last straw for mom and pop much the last straw for mom and pop investors. Now you have a whole new investors. Now you have a whole new investors. Now you have a whole new generation of people on DraftKings and generation of people on DraftKings and generation of people on DraftKings and Robin Hood speculating, but everybody Robin Hood speculating, but everybody Robin Hood speculating, but everybody who's over 40 kind of lived through this who's over 40 kind of lived through this who's over 40 kind of lived through this and said, "You know what? I'm going to and said, "You know what? I'm going to and said, "You know what? I'm going to take my ball and go home." And by ball, take my ball and go home." And by ball, take my ball and go home." And by ball, I mean capital. And by home, I mean I mean capital. And by home, I mean I mean capital. And by home, I mean Black Rockck and Vanguard. And you know, Black Rockck and Vanguard. And you know, Black Rockck and Vanguard. And you know, before 089, Vanguard was under a before 089, Vanguard was under a before 089, Vanguard was under a trillion dollars. They're like 11 or 12 trillion dollars. They're like 11 or 12 trillion dollars. They're like 11 or 12 trillion dollars. Uh Black Rockck is 13 trillion dollars. Uh Black Rockck is 13 trillion dollars. Uh Black Rockck is 13 or 14 trillion. Like these are giant or 14 trillion. Like these are giant or 14 trillion. Like these are giant giant firms. And so that's kind of what giant firms. And so that's kind of what giant firms. And so that's kind of what happened. That's the base core. And you happened. That's the base core. And you happened. That's the base core. And you know, the tree just keeps growing. know, the tree just keeps growing. know, the tree just keeps growing. What's the biggest return one of your What's the biggest return one of your What's the biggest return one of your clients has had via their cowboy clients has had via their cowboy clients has had via their cowboy account? account? account? >> So we've we've had people that have had >> So we've we've had people that have had >> So we've we've had people that have had some Bitcoin when it skyrocketed. We've some Bitcoin when it skyrocketed. We've some Bitcoin when it skyrocketed. We've had clients that had a lot of Tesla that had clients that had a lot of Tesla that had clients that had a lot of Tesla that blew up, you know, in 20 and 21. It it blew up, you know, in 20 and 21. It it blew up, you know, in 20 and 21. It it exploded. exploded. exploded. Heading into the pandemic, the people Heading into the pandemic, the people Heading into the pandemic, the people that in their account had like Teddoc that in their account had like Teddoc that in their account had like Teddoc and Zoom and Pelatin and they just and Zoom and Pelatin and they just and Zoom and Pelatin and they just exploded. But what always happens, it's exploded. But what always happens, it's exploded. But what always happens, it's so hard to sell something cuz most of so hard to sell something cuz most of so hard to sell something cuz most of our sales, like I owned Apple when the our sales, like I owned Apple when the our sales, like I owned Apple when the iPod, not iPhone, iPod came out, it was iPod, not iPhone, iPod came out, it was iPod, not iPhone, iPod came out, it was $15 a share, 13 cash. There's no $15 a share, 13 cash. There's no $15 a share, 13 cash. There's no downside and it tripled. It went up to downside and it tripled. It went up to downside and it tripled. It went up to 45 and I thought I was a genius selling 45 and I thought I was a genius selling 45 and I thought I was a genius selling it. And then it proceeds to gain another it. And then it proceeds to gain another it. And then it proceeds to gain another 9,000%. 9,000%. 9,000%. Um, but we've seen that, you know, one Um, but we've seen that, you know, one Um, but we've seen that, you know, one of my favorite stories in the book is of my favorite stories in the book is of my favorite stories in the book is the CEO of Pelatin wasn't getting the CEO of Pelatin wasn't getting the CEO of Pelatin wasn't getting especially great advice. At one point on especially great advice. At one point on especially great advice. At one point on on paper, he was worth, I don't know, on paper, he was worth, I don't know, on paper, he was worth, I don't know, two or three billion dollars and just two or three billion dollars and just two or three billion dollars and just leveraged himself to the hilt, bought a leveraged himself to the hilt, bought a leveraged himself to the hilt, bought a whole bunch of stuff. Then of course as whole bunch of stuff. Then of course as whole bunch of stuff. Then of course as the pandemic starts to as the vaccine the pandemic starts to as the vaccine the pandemic starts to as the vaccine starts going around and we start to see starts going around and we start to see starts going around and we start to see the light at the end of the tunnel, the light at the end of the tunnel, the light at the end of the tunnel, Peladin crashes. He must have taken a Peladin crashes. He must have taken a Peladin crashes. He must have taken a whole bunch of stock loans against that whole bunch of stock loans against that whole bunch of stock loans against that capital. Had a $60 million place in East capital. Had a $60 million place in East capital. Had a $60 million place in East Hampton. Had to sell that. Was just Hampton. Had to sell that. Was just Hampton. Had to sell that. Was just liquidating everything. And just, you liquidating everything. And just, you liquidating everything. And just, you know, you it's always a shame when you know, you it's always a shame when you know, you it's always a shame when you see that. I mean, how many disasters do see that. I mean, how many disasters do see that. I mean, how many disasters do we have to live through before you we have to live through before you we have to live through before you realize any stock can go to zero? So, realize any stock can go to zero? So, realize any stock can go to zero? So, anytime you're trading an individual anytime you're trading an individual anytime you're trading an individual name, the odds Henrik Hendrickk name, the odds Henrik Hendrickk name, the odds Henrik Hendrickk Bessonbinder at UN uh Arizona State Bessonbinder at UN uh Arizona State Bessonbinder at UN uh Arizona State Business School did a couple of studies Business School did a couple of studies Business School did a couple of studies and he basically found out that the and he basically found out that the and he basically found out that the entire value in the market comes from entire value in the market comes from entire value in the market comes from between 1 and 2% of stocks. So, what are between 1 and 2% of stocks. So, what are between 1 and 2% of stocks. So, what are the odds? 50 to1, 100 to one, that the the odds? 50 to1, 100 to one, that the the odds? 50 to1, 100 to one, that the company that you love so much, that's company that you love so much, that's company that you love so much, that's run up so much this year is going to do run up so much this year is going to do run up so much this year is going to do it for another 10 or 20 years. it for another 10 or 20 years. it for another 10 or 20 years. >> You want to hear something funny, Sean? >> You want to hear something funny, Sean? >> You want to hear something funny, Sean? I uh we we did a podcast with Lloyd I uh we we did a podcast with Lloyd I uh we we did a podcast with Lloyd Blankfine the other day. You know, the Blankfine the other day. You know, the Blankfine the other day. You know, the >> Yeah, he's got a book out. >> Yeah, he's got a book out. >> Yeah, he's got a book out. >> Yeah, he's it was it's a great book and >> Yeah, he's it was it's a great book and >> Yeah, he's it was it's a great book and he's, you know, for the listener, he's he's, you know, for the listener, he's he's, you know, for the listener, he's the former CEO of Goldman. He's big shy, the former CEO of Goldman. He's big shy, the former CEO of Goldman. He's big shy, great guy. He told me uh go I was like, great guy. He told me uh go I was like, great guy. He told me uh go I was like, "You're retired. What do you do now?" "You're retired. What do you do now?" "You're retired. What do you do now?" He's like, "I love to day trade." He was He's like, "I love to day trade." He was He's like, "I love to day trade." He was like, he goes, "In fact, I knew I was like, he goes, "In fact, I knew I was like, he goes, "In fact, I knew I was going to do this podcast for two hours, going to do this podcast for two hours, going to do this podcast for two hours, and it kind of made me anxious because and it kind of made me anxious because and it kind of made me anxious because I'm always grabbing my phone to look at I'm always grabbing my phone to look at I'm always grabbing my phone to look at like my stocks, and so I had to put all like my stocks, and so I had to put all like my stocks, and so I had to put all my orders in in advance uh in my orders in in advance uh in my orders in in advance uh in preparation because I'm not going to be preparation because I'm not going to be preparation because I'm not going to be available." And I I He's like, "Right available." And I I He's like, "Right available." And I I He's like, "Right now. I want to look at my phone right now. I want to look at my phone right now. I want to look at my phone right now." And then after the podcast, I was now." And then after the podcast, I was now." And then after the podcast, I was like, "Well, what are you going to do like, "Well, what are you going to do like, "Well, what are you going to do now?" He's like, "Well, now?" He's like, "Well, now?" He's like, "Well, market's closed, so I don't have market's closed, so I don't have market's closed, so I don't have anything else to do. I guess I'll walk anything else to do. I guess I'll walk anything else to do. I guess I'll walk home." And I don't know how his home." And I don't know how his home." And I don't know how his portfolio uh how he said 70% of his net portfolio uh how he said 70% of his net portfolio uh how he said 70% of his net worth. I I think he said that. Don't worth. I I think he said that. Don't worth. I I think he said that. Don't quote me, but something like that is in quote me, but something like that is in quote me, but something like that is in his pickings. Um, and so he said he's his pickings. Um, and so he said he's his pickings. Um, and so he said he's doing good, but it was just so funny. doing good, but it was just so funny. doing good, but it was just so funny. And what's interesting is that I'm sure And what's interesting is that I'm sure And what's interesting is that I'm sure he's doing great. If anyone's going to he's doing great. If anyone's going to he's doing great. If anyone's going to do great, it's probably someone like do great, it's probably someone like do great, it's probably someone like him. That said, it's like even if you're him. That said, it's like even if you're him. That said, it's like even if you're a titan of industry, you're on top of a titan of industry, you're on top of a titan of industry, you're on top of the world. You know everyone, you're a the world. You know everyone, you're a the world. You know everyone, you're a who's who. There's probably a world who's who. There's probably a world who's who. There's probably a world where he's going to make every single where he's going to make every single where he's going to make every single mistake the same mistake that an mistake the same mistake that an mistake the same mistake that an 18-year-old degenerate Robin Hood trader 18-year-old degenerate Robin Hood trader 18-year-old degenerate Robin Hood trader is going to make. And I find that's is going to make. And I find that's is going to make. And I find that's interesting that we all still do these interesting that we all still do these interesting that we all still do these things. Lloyd, listen to me. Put the things. Lloyd, listen to me. Put the things. Lloyd, listen to me. Put the phone down. Stop trading. 70% of your phone down. Stop trading. 70% of your phone down. Stop trading. 70% of your net worth should be in MUN bonds paying net worth should be in MUN bonds paying net worth should be in MUN bonds paying you a huge tax-free yield. You want to you a huge tax-free yield. You want to you a huge tax-free yield. You want to dick around with a few million dollars, dick around with a few million dollars, dick around with a few million dollars, knock yourself out. But if you're knock yourself out. But if you're knock yourself out. But if you're actively trading 70% of your net worth, actively trading 70% of your net worth, actively trading 70% of your net worth, which is a couple of billion dollars, I which is a couple of billion dollars, I which is a couple of billion dollars, I am disappointed to tell you that you are am disappointed to tell you that you are am disappointed to tell you that you are making the biggest risk adjusted mistake making the biggest risk adjusted mistake making the biggest risk adjusted mistake of your career. And the schmuck that of your career. And the schmuck that of your career. And the schmuck that used to run Goldman Sachs should know used to run Goldman Sachs should know used to run Goldman Sachs should know better. Stop day trading. better. Stop day trading. better. Stop day trading. >> Looks like I'm not invited to I'm not >> Looks like I'm not invited to I'm not >> Looks like I'm not invited to I'm not invited to Shabbat dinner anymore. So, invited to Shabbat dinner anymore. So, invited to Shabbat dinner anymore. So, uh, thanks Barry. Um, uh, thanks Barry. Um, uh, thanks Barry. Um, >> oh my god. I I I hope I hope your memory >> oh my god. I I I hope I hope your memory >> oh my god. I I I hope I hope your memory your numbers are wrong. So So here's the your numbers are wrong. So So here's the your numbers are wrong. So So here's the fascinating behavioral side of that. fascinating behavioral side of that. fascinating behavioral side of that. >> On this show, we have spent hours >> On this show, we have spent hours >> On this show, we have spent hours talking to some of the best investors talking to some of the best investors talking to some of the best investors alive. Well, lucky for you, the team at alive. Well, lucky for you, the team at alive. Well, lucky for you, the team at HubSpot, they have pulled out the HubSpot, they have pulled out the HubSpot, they have pulled out the principles that matter most and turned principles that matter most and turned principles that matter most and turned it into a very simple, easyto- read it into a very simple, easyto- read it into a very simple, easyto- read wealth guide. It's 35 principles from wealth guide. It's 35 principles from wealth guide. It's 35 principles from the top investors. We're talking guys the top investors. We're talking guys the top investors. We're talking guys who have been on the pod like Howard who have been on the pod like Howard who have been on the pod like Howard Marx, Manish Perbry, Morgan Howell, Marx, Manish Perbry, Morgan Howell, Marx, Manish Perbry, Morgan Howell, Kathy Wood, and a ton others. So, these Kathy Wood, and a ton others. So, these Kathy Wood, and a ton others. So, these are all their frameworks, their mental are all their frameworks, their mental are all their frameworks, their mental models, their rules. Basically, how to models, their rules. Basically, how to models, their rules. Basically, how to play the long game and how to avoid play the long game and how to avoid play the long game and how to avoid ruin. You can get it in the link below. ruin. You can get it in the link below. ruin. You can get it in the link below. >> We see this all the time. I mentioned >> We see this all the time. I mentioned >> We see this all the time. I mentioned the clients, hey, do I buy a Ferrari or the clients, hey, do I buy a Ferrari or the clients, hey, do I buy a Ferrari or not? The folks who are, and I mean this not? The folks who are, and I mean this not? The folks who are, and I mean this in all seriousness to to Lloyd, people in all seriousness to to Lloyd, people in all seriousness to to Lloyd, people who a guy like him works really hard his who a guy like him works really hard his who a guy like him works really hard his whole career, constantly striving and whole career, constantly striving and whole career, constantly striving and saving and investing and putting money saving and investing and putting money saving and investing and putting money away and accumulating stock options and away and accumulating stock options and away and accumulating stock options and going through all this. It is really going through all this. It is really going through all this. It is really difficult even for people who are you difficult even for people who are you difficult even for people who are you know masters of the universe know masters of the universe know masters of the universe billionaires to recognize and just stop billionaires to recognize and just stop billionaires to recognize and just stop and say I won. Hey, I won. I don't have and say I won. Hey, I won. I don't have and say I won. Hey, I won. I don't have to put this much capital at risk because to put this much capital at risk because to put this much capital at risk because over the decades I have just seen that over the decades I have just seen that over the decades I have just seen that story play out and end badly. Hey, I'm story play out and end badly. Hey, I'm story play out and end badly. Hey, I'm sure Lloyd will be fine. He doesn't have sure Lloyd will be fine. He doesn't have sure Lloyd will be fine. He doesn't have to take financial advice from little old to take financial advice from little old to take financial advice from little old me. But anybody who walks into the me. But anybody who walks into the me. But anybody who walks into the office with a giant portfolio, the the office with a giant portfolio, the the office with a giant portfolio, the the challenge is how do we convince you that challenge is how do we convince you that challenge is how do we convince you that you've won and how do we make you create you've won and how do we make you create you've won and how do we make you create a portfolio a portfolio a portfolio that is highest probability of reaching that is highest probability of reaching that is highest probability of reaching whatever your goals are and PS if your whatever your goals are and PS if your whatever your goals are and PS if your goal is just more well then you're going goal is just more well then you're going goal is just more well then you're going to be disappointed both in your to be disappointed both in your to be disappointed both in your portfolio and your life. you uh you portfolio and your life. you uh you portfolio and your life. you uh you mentioned something about selling and I mentioned something about selling and I mentioned something about selling and I thought there was two interesting things thought there was two interesting things thought there was two interesting things in your book about selling. One was in your book about selling. One was in your book about selling. One was about panic selling and the data around about panic selling and the data around about panic selling and the data around what happens for panic selling. The what happens for panic selling. The what happens for panic selling. The other was that hedge fun there was some other was that hedge fun there was some other was that hedge fun there was some study about hedge fund managers where study about hedge fund managers where study about hedge fund managers where their buys were actually good but their their buys were actually good but their their buys were actually good but their sells were terrible and I wanted can you sells were terrible and I wanted can you sells were terrible and I wanted can you can you explain those two ideas around can you explain those two ideas around can you explain those two ideas around selling? selling? selling? >> Um so so again a lot of behavioral >> Um so so again a lot of behavioral >> Um so so again a lot of behavioral finance research behind this. It turns finance research behind this. It turns finance research behind this. It turns out that people panic sell into a market out that people panic sell into a market out that people panic sell into a market crash, something like a third of them crash, something like a third of them crash, something like a third of them never return to equities. So, let's just never return to equities. So, let's just never return to equities. So, let's just use either the 2020 34% pandemic sell use either the 2020 34% pandemic sell use either the 2020 34% pandemic sell off or more likely the 089 57% market off or more likely the 089 57% market off or more likely the 089 57% market crash. Imagine selling down 57%, not crash. Imagine selling down 57%, not crash. Imagine selling down 57%, not getting back into equities and watching getting back into equities and watching getting back into equities and watching 15% a year compound over that entire 15% a year compound over that entire 15% a year compound over that entire period. It it it it's shocking. You So period. It it it it's shocking. You So period. It it it it's shocking. You So you take a a million-doll portfolio, you take a a million-doll portfolio, you take a a million-doll portfolio, you're out at like of 450,000 net worth. you're out at like of 450,000 net worth. you're out at like of 450,000 net worth. If you never would have sold it, it If you never would have sold it, it If you never would have sold it, it would be worth 10x today. It would be would be worth 10x today. It would be would be worth 10x today. It would be 4.5 billion. And to be fair, you are 4.5 billion. And to be fair, you are 4.5 billion. And to be fair, you are getting a percent or two uh up until getting a percent or two uh up until getting a percent or two uh up until 2022. Now you start to get 4% in a money 2022. Now you start to get 4% in a money 2022. Now you start to get 4% in a money market, 3.7% today. But that doesn't market, 3.7% today. But that doesn't market, 3.7% today. But that doesn't compare to a 10x and it doesn't keep up compare to a 10x and it doesn't keep up compare to a 10x and it doesn't keep up with inflation. So, that's the first with inflation. So, that's the first with inflation. So, that's the first data point that's shocking. Panic sell data point that's shocking. Panic sell data point that's shocking. Panic sell into a portfolio. One in three people into a portfolio. One in three people into a portfolio. One in three people never get back into equities. never get back into equities. never get back into equities. >> The hedge fund, uh, the buys are good, >> The hedge fund, uh, the buys are good, >> The hedge fund, uh, the buys are good, but the sells are worse than just if but the sells are worse than just if but the sells are worse than just if they sold at random. they sold at random. they sold at random. >> So, I I love this study. It's by Alex >> So, I I love this study. It's by Alex >> So, I I love this study. It's by Alex Eis, who is a University of Chicago Eis, who is a University of Chicago Eis, who is a University of Chicago professor. But they did this study where professor. But they did this study where professor. But they did this study where they looked at all these buys. And my they looked at all these buys. And my they looked at all these buys. And my explanation is the buys are rational explanation is the buys are rational explanation is the buys are rational spreadsheet database. The cells are spreadsheet database. The cells are spreadsheet database. The cells are always emotional. But the clever thing always emotional. But the clever thing always emotional. But the clever thing that Professor Eis did was, hey, how can that Professor Eis did was, hey, how can that Professor Eis did was, hey, how can we tell how good these cells were? I we tell how good these cells were? I we tell how good these cells were? I know instead of selling the company that know instead of selling the company that know instead of selling the company that the manager wanted to sell, let's the manager wanted to sell, let's the manager wanted to sell, let's randomly pick anything else this that's randomly pick anything else this that's randomly pick anything else this that's in this manager's uh portfolio and sell in this manager's uh portfolio and sell in this manager's uh portfolio and sell that instead. And it turned out that the that instead. And it turned out that the that instead. And it turned out that the random cells outperformed the manager random cells outperformed the manager random cells outperformed the manager selected cells by something like 150 to selected cells by something like 150 to selected cells by something like 150 to 200 basis points. Maybe it was even 200 basis points. Maybe it was even 200 basis points. Maybe it was even more. It was some crazy amount. And it's more. It was some crazy amount. And it's more. It was some crazy amount. And it's like it makes sense that the buys are like it makes sense that the buys are like it makes sense that the buys are thoughtful and logical. But the sells thoughtful and logical. But the sells thoughtful and logical. But the sells very often are emotional, impatient. You very often are emotional, impatient. You very often are emotional, impatient. You know, sometimes the stock doesn't work know, sometimes the stock doesn't work know, sometimes the stock doesn't work out right away. Uh people sell it even out right away. Uh people sell it even out right away. Uh people sell it even though the underlying thesis was though the underlying thesis was though the underlying thesis was correct. Sometimes something else bright correct. Sometimes something else bright correct. Sometimes something else bright and shiny comes along and you got to and shiny comes along and you got to and shiny comes along and you got to sell something so you have money to buy sell something so you have money to buy sell something so you have money to buy that. It's an amazing data point and it that. It's an amazing data point and it that. It's an amazing data point and it just goes to show you most of our just goes to show you most of our just goes to show you most of our decision making is bad and so one decision making is bad and so one decision making is bad and so one solution make fewer decisions. solution make fewer decisions. solution make fewer decisions. >> Hey, can I um I'm going to I'm going to >> Hey, can I um I'm going to I'm going to >> Hey, can I um I'm going to I'm going to pick a friendly fight with you. pick a friendly fight with you. pick a friendly fight with you. >> Sure. >> Sure. >> Sure. >> Uh so you say buy lowcost index funds. >> Uh so you say buy lowcost index funds. >> Uh so you say buy lowcost index funds. I'm on board with you. Anyone who's I'm on board with you. Anyone who's I'm on board with you. Anyone who's listening to this pod knows you're listening to this pod knows you're listening to this pod knows you're you're speaking my language, but why you're speaking my language, but why you're speaking my language, but why would I pay you a fee then to do that? would I pay you a fee then to do that? would I pay you a fee then to do that? >> You don't have to. The our whole >> You don't have to. The our whole >> You don't have to. The our whole business model from day one has been um business model from day one has been um business model from day one has been um so we've been writing in public, myself so we've been writing in public, myself so we've been writing in public, myself and my partners, hey, you could do this and my partners, hey, you could do this and my partners, hey, you could do this yourself. You don't need anybody. You yourself. You don't need anybody. You yourself. You don't need anybody. You just need put together a broad portfolio just need put together a broad portfolio just need put together a broad portfolio of lowcost indexes, manage your own of lowcost indexes, manage your own of lowcost indexes, manage your own behavior, stay out of your own way, and behavior, stay out of your own way, and behavior, stay out of your own way, and you know, check in on it once, twice a you know, check in on it once, twice a you know, check in on it once, twice a year. That's it. And there are a bunch year. That's it. And there are a bunch year. That's it. And there are a bunch of people who said, "Well, I like the of people who said, "Well, I like the of people who said, "Well, I like the advice, but I have a little more advice, but I have a little more advice, but I have a little more complexity in my portfolio. I have tax complexity in my portfolio. I have tax complexity in my portfolio. I have tax issues. I have estate issues. I have issues. I have estate issues. I have issues. I have estate issues. I have whatever. I need some help with this." whatever. I need some help with this." whatever. I need some help with this." Um, we don't have minimums. We set up Um, we don't have minimums. We set up Um, we don't have minimums. We set up different levels of uh we have two different levels of uh we have two different levels of uh we have two digital platforms, one for under a digital platforms, one for under a digital platforms, one for under a quarter million dollars and one for a quarter million dollars and one for a quarter million dollars and one for a quarter million to a million. But our quarter million to a million. But our quarter million to a million. But our whole our whole, you know, line of whole our whole, you know, line of whole our whole, you know, line of [ __ ] has always been, "Do it [ __ ] has always been, "Do it [ __ ] has always been, "Do it yourself. You don't need our help." And yourself. You don't need our help." And yourself. You don't need our help." And it turned out something like 0.01% of it turned out something like 0.01% of it turned out something like 0.01% of our readers said, "I don't have the our readers said, "I don't have the our readers said, "I don't have the time. I don't have the discipline. I'm time. I don't have the discipline. I'm time. I don't have the discipline. I'm not interested in this crap. I I pay not interested in this crap. I I pay not interested in this crap. I I pay someone to do my taxes. I pay someone to someone to do my taxes. I pay someone to someone to do my taxes. I pay someone to mow my yard. I'm going to pay you guys mow my yard. I'm going to pay you guys mow my yard. I'm going to pay you guys to manage our our money." I did a post a to manage our our money." I did a post a to manage our our money." I did a post a couple of weeks ago about organizational couple of weeks ago about organizational couple of weeks ago about organizational alpha. And if you beat the market by 50 alpha. And if you beat the market by 50 alpha. And if you beat the market by 50 basis points or or below the market by basis points or or below the market by basis points or or below the market by 50 basis points, clients could not 50 basis points, clients could not 50 basis points, clients could not really care less about that. However, if really care less about that. However, if really care less about that. However, if you manage to quarterback their finances you manage to quarterback their finances you manage to quarterback their finances in a way that um our tax team has done a in a way that um our tax team has done a in a way that um our tax team has done a great job minimizing capital gains great job minimizing capital gains great job minimizing capital gains taxes, we use a couple of complex taxes, we use a couple of complex taxes, we use a couple of complex products and I always think simple is products and I always think simple is products and I always think simple is better than complex unless it really better than complex unless it really better than complex unless it really solves a sticky problem. So direct solves a sticky problem. So direct solves a sticky problem. So direct indexing really helps with that. indexing really helps with that. indexing really helps with that. >> Sam, do you direct index or do you know >> Sam, do you direct index or do you know >> Sam, do you direct index or do you know what that is? what that is? what that is? >> Yeah, I know what it is. I don't do it. >> Yeah, I know what it is. I don't do it. >> Yeah, I know what it is. I don't do it. Sean's uh people make fun of me, uh, Sean's uh people make fun of me, uh, Sean's uh people make fun of me, uh, Barry, on the show because I am a very Barry, on the show because I am a very Barry, on the show because I am a very strict like at this point it's a little strict like at this point it's a little strict like at this point it's a little bit like 9010 equities and bonds. bit like 9010 equities and bonds. bit like 9010 equities and bonds. >> I don't even think you need the 10. You >> I don't even think you need the 10. You >> I don't even think you need the 10. You got 30 years before you need the money. got 30 years before you need the money. got 30 years before you need the money. Why drag the portfolio down with bonds? Why drag the portfolio down with bonds? Why drag the portfolio down with bonds? >> Just >> Just >> Just >> which by the way is somewhat >> which by the way is somewhat >> which by the way is somewhat controversial. Um, controversial. Um, controversial. Um, >> it it just helps em it's a it's a mostly >> it it just helps em it's a it's a mostly >> it it just helps em it's a it's a mostly emotional decision, but direct indexing, emotional decision, but direct indexing, emotional decision, but direct indexing, it's summarized as instead of buying an it's summarized as instead of buying an it's summarized as instead of buying an index fund, you have a program that index fund, you have a program that index fund, you have a program that basically buys the stocks of the basically buys the stocks of the basically buys the stocks of the >> components, right? The components of the >> components, right? The components of the >> components, right? The components of the index in the same proportion. index in the same proportion. index in the same proportion. >> It seems like over the course of like, >> It seems like over the course of like, >> It seems like over the course of like, for example, the way that my personal for example, the way that my personal for example, the way that my personal finances are set up, I I don't intend I finances are set up, I I don't intend I finances are set up, I I don't intend I live off my income. I don't ever intend live off my income. I don't ever intend live off my income. I don't ever intend to sell my uh direct or my index to sell my uh direct or my index to sell my uh direct or my index portfolio in case I guess I would sell portfolio in case I guess I would sell portfolio in case I guess I would sell an emergency, but why would I do direct an emergency, but why would I do direct an emergency, but why would I do direct indexing if I don't intend to sell it? indexing if I don't intend to sell it? indexing if I don't intend to sell it? >> I I love that question. So, you guys >> I I love that question. So, you guys >> I I love that question. So, you guys have both sold startups and ended up have both sold startups and ended up have both sold startups and ended up with substantial capital gains. And so, with substantial capital gains. And so, with substantial capital gains. And so, in any given year, even when the markets in any given year, even when the markets in any given year, even when the markets are up, there's some 20 30 40% of stocks are up, there's some 20 30 40% of stocks are up, there's some 20 30 40% of stocks that are down. And of that group that's that are down. And of that group that's that are down. And of that group that's down, there are some that are down down, there are some that are down down, there are some that are down substantially. So if you have VU I think substantially. So if you have VU I think substantially. So if you have VU I think is 700 or 800 uh positions, the S&P 500 is 700 or 800 uh positions, the S&P 500 is 700 or 800 uh positions, the S&P 500 is 500. You look at the bottom decile, is 500. You look at the bottom decile, is 500. You look at the bottom decile, the bottom 10% of stocks and all right, the bottom 10% of stocks and all right, the bottom 10% of stocks and all right, this this small cap biotech is down 40%. this this small cap biotech is down 40%. this this small cap biotech is down 40%. I'm going to sell it and replace it with I'm going to sell it and replace it with I'm going to sell it and replace it with something that looks very similar, something that looks very similar, something that looks very similar, another small cap biotech that's down in another small cap biotech that's down in another small cap biotech that's down in the same space. I harvest that loss. The the same space. I harvest that loss. The the same space. I harvest that loss. The portfolio value doesn't change. The way portfolio value doesn't change. The way portfolio value doesn't change. The way the portfolio ch trades doesn't change. the portfolio ch trades doesn't change. the portfolio ch trades doesn't change. But if you do that every year, you could But if you do that every year, you could But if you do that every year, you could pick up 75 85 basis points in Q1 of 2020 pick up 75 85 basis points in Q1 of 2020 pick up 75 85 basis points in Q1 of 2020 when the market was down 34%. Oonessy when the market was down 34%. Oonessy when the market was down 34%. Oonessy did a research study on direct indexing. did a research study on direct indexing. did a research study on direct indexing. Their study said that it was 400 plus Their study said that it was 400 plus Their study said that it was 400 plus basis points of losses harvested and basis points of losses harvested and basis points of losses harvested and replaced with very similar companies and replaced with very similar companies and replaced with very similar companies and when the recovery happened it it matched when the recovery happened it it matched when the recovery happened it it matched the performance of the index because the performance of the index because the performance of the index because effectively it's the same thing. So effectively it's the same thing. So effectively it's the same thing. So founder stock, IPO stock, sale of a founder stock, IPO stock, sale of a founder stock, IPO stock, sale of a business, inheritance, uh high business, inheritance, uh high business, inheritance, uh high concentration positions. Every now and concentration positions. Every now and concentration positions. Every now and then someone comes in and says, "Hey, I then someone comes in and says, "Hey, I then someone comes in and says, "Hey, I have a $10 million portfolio and I've have a $10 million portfolio and I've have a $10 million portfolio and I've owned fill-in- thelank Apple for 15 owned fill-in- thelank Apple for 15 owned fill-in- thelank Apple for 15 years and now it's 90% of my portfolio. years and now it's 90% of my portfolio. years and now it's 90% of my portfolio. How do you get them out of that position How do you get them out of that position How do you get them out of that position without paying a giant cap gains tax?" without paying a giant cap gains tax?" without paying a giant cap gains tax?" And so this has been like a very And so this has been like a very And so this has been like a very effective way to uh to do that. Uh it's effective way to uh to do that. Uh it's effective way to uh to do that. Uh it's not for everybody. It adds complexity. not for everybody. It adds complexity. not for everybody. It adds complexity. It adds a little bit of cost, not much, It adds a little bit of cost, not much, It adds a little bit of cost, not much, but some. Um, but it's definitely useful but some. Um, but it's definitely useful but some. Um, but it's definitely useful for that. For most people, I don't think for that. For most people, I don't think for that. For most people, I don't think it's necessary. it's necessary. it's necessary. >> Can I ask you a bunch of stories? Uh, I >> Can I ask you a bunch of stories? Uh, I >> Can I ask you a bunch of stories? Uh, I want to I want to do a story time thing want to I want to do a story time thing want to I want to do a story time thing because the cool thing about you is because the cool thing about you is because the cool thing about you is you've been doing the content game for you've been doing the content game for you've been doing the content game for so long. And so I know you've met some so long. And so I know you've met some so long. And so I know you've met some incredibly interesting people. I want to incredibly interesting people. I want to incredibly interesting people. I want to do a little rapid fire bit, but do a little rapid fire bit, but do a little rapid fire bit, but >> uh of all the people you've had on the >> uh of all the people you've had on the >> uh of all the people you've had on the podcast or interviewed at conferences or podcast or interviewed at conferences or podcast or interviewed at conferences or or uh through work, who's the person who or uh through work, who's the person who or uh through work, who's the person who you think uh our listener should you think uh our listener should you think uh our listener should research and some like someone you research and some like someone you research and some like someone you admire? admire? admire? >> So, you mentioned Ray Dallio and Howard >> So, you mentioned Ray Dallio and Howard >> So, you mentioned Ray Dallio and Howard Mars. Those are obvious. I'll give you Mars. Those are obvious. I'll give you Mars. Those are obvious. I'll give you I'll give you a couple of really I'll give you a couple of really I'll give you a couple of really interesting names. Richard Barton is interesting names. Richard Barton is interesting names. Richard Barton is this former Microsoft employee who who this former Microsoft employee who who this former Microsoft employee who who founded Expedia and Zillow and just one founded Expedia and Zillow and just one founded Expedia and Zillow and just one crazy company after another. He's got crazy company after another. He's got crazy company after another. He's got this crazy framework. I think uh Sean this crazy framework. I think uh Sean this crazy framework. I think uh Sean and I have talked about it. His whole I and I have talked about it. His whole I and I have talked about it. His whole I think I'm summarizing this correctly. think I'm summarizing this correctly. think I'm summarizing this correctly. Sean, I think he said um his whole Sean, I think he said um his whole Sean, I think he said um his whole career is taking messy data and career is taking messy data and career is taking messy data and organizing it or I think he even said I organizing it or I think he even said I organizing it or I think he even said I I free the data. I free the data. I free the data. >> Yes. Give he he calls it give the power >> Yes. Give he he calls it give the power >> Yes. Give he he calls it give the power to the people. Let's basically take data to the people. Let's basically take data to the people. Let's basically take data that exists that is just not that exists that is just not that exists that is just not transparently easily structured and transparently easily structured and transparently easily structured and available and make it transparent, available and make it transparent, available and make it transparent, easily structured and available. And so easily structured and available. And so easily structured and available. And so if you look at what he did with housing, if you look at what he did with housing, if you look at what he did with housing, you know, the housing data, that's the you know, the housing data, that's the you know, the housing data, that's the MLS data. He made it more easy to access MLS data. He made it more easy to access MLS data. He made it more easy to access through Zillow. They did it with through Zillow. They did it with through Zillow. They did it with Expedia. He did it with Glass Door. And Expedia. He did it with Glass Door. And Expedia. He did it with Glass Door. And it's the same thesis he's just played it's the same thesis he's just played it's the same thesis he's just played out in like four, you know, plus uh out in like four, you know, plus uh out in like four, you know, plus uh different companies at this point. different companies at this point. different companies at this point. >> I'll give you a couple other names that >> I'll give you a couple other names that >> I'll give you a couple other names that are a little below the radar even though are a little below the radar even though are a little below the radar even though they're they're all kind of known to the they're they're all kind of known to the they're they're all kind of known to the industry. Um, I I think David Rubenstein industry. Um, I I think David Rubenstein industry. Um, I I think David Rubenstein of the Carile Group could be the best of the Carile Group could be the best of the Carile Group could be the best human being I've ever met in my life. human being I've ever met in my life. human being I've ever met in my life. >> That guy's awesome. Have you seen the >> That guy's awesome. Have you seen the >> That guy's awesome. Have you seen the show, Sean? show, Sean? show, Sean? >> Yeah, of course. I've just seen this. I >> Yeah, of course. I've just seen this. I >> Yeah, of course. I've just seen this. I didn't know he was such a legend. I just didn't know he was such a legend. I just didn't know he was such a legend. I just thought he's an interviewer cuz I just thought he's an interviewer cuz I just thought he's an interviewer cuz I just only ever seen him doing interviews. I only ever seen him doing interviews. I only ever seen him doing interviews. I didn't realize he was the founder of of didn't realize he was the founder of of didn't realize he was the founder of of Carile, which is Carile, which is Carile, which is >> Well, he and he's like a he's a I knew >> Well, he and he's like a he's a I knew >> Well, he and he's like a he's a I knew him as like a historian. He has these him as like a historian. He has these him as like a historian. He has these amazing books. I'm reading one of his amazing books. I'm reading one of his amazing books. I'm reading one of his books on Washington and Lincoln and the books on Washington and Lincoln and the books on Washington and Lincoln and the rest of the presidents. I I don't even rest of the presidents. I I don't even rest of the presidents. I I don't even think of him as a money guy. think of him as a money guy. think of him as a money guy. >> So, he started out in the DC area when >> So, he started out in the DC area when >> So, he started out in the DC area when Carell started and he would put together Carell started and he would put together Carell started and he would put together these these these um off thereord conversations with um off thereord conversations with um off thereord conversations with experts in spaces that were being experts in spaces that were being experts in spaces that were being debated by Congress and then he would debated by Congress and then he would debated by Congress and then he would invite a whole bunch of congressmen and invite a whole bunch of congressmen and invite a whole bunch of congressmen and senators and staffers from both sides. senators and staffers from both sides. senators and staffers from both sides. And the idea was this isn't partisan. And the idea was this isn't partisan. And the idea was this isn't partisan. This is polit isn't political. This is This is polit isn't political. This is This is polit isn't political. This is just a way for you guys to hear from an just a way for you guys to hear from an just a way for you guys to hear from an expert who you may not come across. And expert who you may not come across. And expert who you may not come across. And >> and why did he do that? Was he was in >> and why did he do that? Was he was in >> and why did he do that? Was he was in politics? politics? politics? >> No, he just wanted the Congress of the >> No, he just wanted the Congress of the >> No, he just wanted the Congress of the country he lived in to be better country he lived in to be better country he lived in to be better informed and make better, more informed and make better, more informed and make better, more knowledgeable. knowledgeable. knowledgeable. >> But was he a big shot when he did that? >> But was he a big shot when he did that? >> But was he a big shot when he did that? No, he was Carlile was a tiny little No, he was Carlile was a tiny little No, he was Carlile was a tiny little company that was specializing in telecom company that was specializing in telecom company that was specializing in telecom and that's why they were based in DC and and that's why they were based in DC and and that's why they were based in DC and eventually expanded to everything else. eventually expanded to everything else. eventually expanded to everything else. So later on his career he's super So later on his career he's super So later on his career he's super becomes wealthy and the Washington becomes wealthy and the Washington becomes wealthy and the Washington Monument starts falling apart. The Monument starts falling apart. The Monument starts falling apart. The cement starts cracking. It's a couple cement starts cracking. It's a couple cement starts cracking. It's a couple hundred years old and Congress being hundred years old and Congress being hundred years old and Congress being paralyzed and incompetent. He's an idiot paralyzed and incompetent. He's an idiot paralyzed and incompetent. He's an idiot and a congressman, but I repeat myself. and a congressman, but I repeat myself. and a congressman, but I repeat myself. Is the Mark Twain quote. They couldn't Is the Mark Twain quote. They couldn't Is the Mark Twain quote. They couldn't get their [ __ ] together. So, he steps in get their [ __ ] together. So, he steps in get their [ __ ] together. So, he steps in and says to Congress, "Hey, I'm going to and says to Congress, "Hey, I'm going to and says to Congress, "Hey, I'm going to fix this. See if you idiots can get fix this. See if you idiots can get fix this. See if you idiots can get around to passing legislation. I'm just around to passing legislation. I'm just around to passing legislation. I'm just going to patch it up. See if you can do going to patch it up. See if you can do going to patch it up. See if you can do a permanent fix, and I'd appreciate if a permanent fix, and I'd appreciate if a permanent fix, and I'd appreciate if you pay me back one of these days." And you pay me back one of these days." And you pay me back one of these days." And he basically guilted them into fixing he basically guilted them into fixing he basically guilted them into fixing all the national monuments. This was in all the national monuments. This was in all the national monuments. This was in like the 80s and '9s. And then he's a like the 80s and '9s. And then he's a like the 80s and '9s. And then he's a kid who grows up in Baltimore, and kid who grows up in Baltimore, and kid who grows up in Baltimore, and Baltimore is a city that's having a hard Baltimore is a city that's having a hard Baltimore is a city that's having a hard time. He buys the Baltimore Orioles, time. He buys the Baltimore Orioles, time. He buys the Baltimore Orioles, promises the city that it will not move promises the city that it will not move promises the city that it will not move over the next 20 years. And I think he over the next 20 years. And I think he over the next 20 years. And I think he said, "And I'm going to keep the beer said, "And I'm going to keep the beer said, "And I'm going to keep the beer and hot dog cost the same for the next and hot dog cost the same for the next and hot dog cost the same for the next 10 years, not what you think of when you 10 years, not what you think of when you 10 years, not what you think of when you think of as private equity." think of as private equity." think of as private equity." >> What personality attributes do you think >> What personality attributes do you think >> What personality attributes do you think made him great as a business person? made him great as a business person? made him great as a business person? because he sounds like a a warm and because he sounds like a a warm and because he sounds like a a warm and lovely guy, but he's in PE, which is not lovely guy, but he's in PE, which is not lovely guy, but he's in PE, which is not particularly a warm and and lovely particularly a warm and and lovely particularly a warm and and lovely industry. industry. industry. >> He is really really good at finding a a >> He is really really good at finding a a >> He is really really good at finding a a a space that is being ignored by the a space that is being ignored by the a space that is being ignored by the rest of the market and not just ignored, rest of the market and not just ignored, rest of the market and not just ignored, but undervalued. So, telecom wasn't sexy but undervalued. So, telecom wasn't sexy but undervalued. So, telecom wasn't sexy in the 80s. There was some post Reagan in the 80s. There was some post Reagan in the 80s. There was some post Reagan deregulation and it kind of got ignored deregulation and it kind of got ignored deregulation and it kind of got ignored for a while. So, and not just like the for a while. So, and not just like the for a while. So, and not just like the the big names, but the, you know, the the big names, but the, you know, the the big names, but the, you know, the block and tackling or all of the block and tackling or all of the block and tackling or all of the fundamental pieces, just the ability to fundamental pieces, just the ability to fundamental pieces, just the ability to it's not even see around corners. It's it's not even see around corners. It's it's not even see around corners. It's identify a spot that the markets have identify a spot that the markets have identify a spot that the markets have missed. Was he prolific in his missed. Was he prolific in his missed. Was he prolific in his extracurricular activities in the in the extracurricular activities in the in the extracurricular activities in the in the uh upswing of the business or was this uh upswing of the business or was this uh upswing of the business or was this like a postwealthy thing? like a postwealthy thing? like a postwealthy thing? >> I think it I think they were on parallel >> I think it I think they were on parallel >> I think it I think they were on parallel tracks. I don't one do that. So, I just tracks. I don't one do that. So, I just tracks. I don't one do that. So, I just lit up Carl by the way. Carlo has $500 lit up Carl by the way. Carlo has $500 lit up Carl by the way. Carlo has $500 billion aum. How does someone keep billion aum. How does someone keep billion aum. How does someone keep plugging away? They'll they'll get there plugging away? They'll they'll get there plugging away? They'll they'll get there someday. someday. someday. >> How How does one do that? How like did >> How How does one do that? How like did >> How How does one do that? How like did you know when he was younger? How on you know when he was younger? How on you know when he was younger? How on earth do you do all these amazing I met earth do you do all these amazing I met earth do you do all these amazing I met him? Um I met someone who worked for him him? Um I met someone who worked for him him? Um I met someone who worked for him and I said, "Hey, tell your boss he's and I said, "Hey, tell your boss he's and I said, "Hey, tell your boss he's stealing my gig at at Bloomberg. What stealing my gig at at Bloomberg. What stealing my gig at at Bloomberg. What the hell? I've been doing this podcast the hell? I've been doing this podcast the hell? I've been doing this podcast since 2013." you know, he comes in and since 2013." you know, he comes in and since 2013." you know, he comes in and Bigfoots in and takes the video version Bigfoots in and takes the video version Bigfoots in and takes the video version of it and it I I was joking. It got back of it and it I I was joking. It got back of it and it I I was joking. It got back to him and I got an email and I said, to him and I got an email and I said, to him and I got an email and I said, "Why don't you come on the show? Let's "Why don't you come on the show? Let's "Why don't you come on the show? Let's talk about your career." So, he did. talk about your career." So, he did. talk about your career." So, he did. >> But what about the other end of the >> But what about the other end of the >> But what about the other end of the spectrum? You know, uh finance and money spectrum? You know, uh finance and money spectrum? You know, uh finance and money attracts a lot of other people who will attracts a lot of other people who will attracts a lot of other people who will say things that are either, you know, say things that are either, you know, say things that are either, you know, inaccurate or bad advice that, you know, inaccurate or bad advice that, you know, inaccurate or bad advice that, you know, maybe self selfinterested advice. U you maybe self selfinterested advice. U you maybe self selfinterested advice. U you know, who do you think has done some know, who do you think has done some know, who do you think has done some damage to the space? uh put a lot of bad damage to the space? uh put a lot of bad damage to the space? uh put a lot of bad advice out there or a bad philosophy advice out there or a bad philosophy advice out there or a bad philosophy that is uh not one that somebody should that is uh not one that somebody should that is uh not one that somebody should follow even if it is popular or visible. follow even if it is popular or visible. follow even if it is popular or visible. >> So those people don't get the invites to >> So those people don't get the invites to >> So those people don't get the invites to show up on the podcast. Um I I've been show up on the podcast. Um I I've been show up on the podcast. Um I I've been having an ongoing fight with Zero Hedge. having an ongoing fight with Zero Hedge. having an ongoing fight with Zero Hedge. >> Zero Hedge is uh is that a blog or is >> Zero Hedge is uh is that a blog or is >> Zero Hedge is uh is that a blog or is that a community? I I don't that a community? I I don't that a community? I I don't >> it's a it's a it's sort of a cross >> it's a it's a it's sort of a cross >> it's a it's a it's sort of a cross between Reddit and a blog. It's it's got between Reddit and a blog. It's it's got between Reddit and a blog. It's it's got a lot of contributors. uh eventually a lot of contributors. uh eventually a lot of contributors. uh eventually they tapped into Bitcoin and to gold and they tapped into Bitcoin and to gold and they tapped into Bitcoin and to gold and you know that that was their their you know that that was their their you know that that was their their argument. Listen the the there's a Ted argument. Listen the the there's a Ted argument. Listen the the there's a Ted Sturgeon quote in the book. Sturgeon was Sturgeon quote in the book. Sturgeon was Sturgeon quote in the book. Sturgeon was a science fiction writer in the 50s and a science fiction writer in the 50s and a science fiction writer in the 50s and he used to get the this question how he used to get the this question how he used to get the this question how come so much of science fiction is not come so much of science fiction is not come so much of science fiction is not good and his answer was 90% of good and his answer was 90% of good and his answer was 90% of everything is crap and so that's become everything is crap and so that's become everything is crap and so that's become sturgeon's law and so most of the stuff sturgeon's law and so most of the stuff sturgeon's law and so most of the stuff you see in print on television on social you see in print on television on social you see in print on television on social media um on Substack most of the stuff media um on Substack most of the stuff media um on Substack most of the stuff isn't worth the time or effort to get isn't worth the time or effort to get isn't worth the time or effort to get it. You know, people send me it. You know, people send me it. You know, people send me subscriptions to stuff all the time. subscriptions to stuff all the time. subscriptions to stuff all the time. Hey, I signed you up for my uh Substack. Hey, I signed you up for my uh Substack. Hey, I signed you up for my uh Substack. You unsubscribe me. Block me. I didn't You unsubscribe me. Block me. I didn't You unsubscribe me. Block me. I didn't ask you to do that. Stop sending me your ask you to do that. Stop sending me your ask you to do that. Stop sending me your digital [ __ ] And the reason for that is digital [ __ ] And the reason for that is digital [ __ ] And the reason for that is simply this. You know, my mom taught me simply this. You know, my mom taught me simply this. You know, my mom taught me never take candy from strangers. And never take candy from strangers. And never take candy from strangers. And that includes research, writing, that includes research, writing, that includes research, writing, commentary, opinion. Before I read commentary, opinion. Before I read commentary, opinion. Before I read something from somebody who I'm not something from somebody who I'm not something from somebody who I'm not familiar with, it's a research lift to familiar with, it's a research lift to familiar with, it's a research lift to decide, is this person worth the time, decide, is this person worth the time, decide, is this person worth the time, effort, energy, what's their track effort, energy, what's their track effort, energy, what's their track record? What's their process? Did they record? What's their process? Did they record? What's their process? Did they just get lucky once and that's it? Or do just get lucky once and that's it? Or do just get lucky once and that's it? Or do they have a defendable approach to this? they have a defendable approach to this? they have a defendable approach to this? Have they lived through a few cycles? Have they lived through a few cycles? Have they lived through a few cycles? Have they seen ups and downs? Do they Have they seen ups and downs? Do they Have they seen ups and downs? Do they have a good temperament? or every day have a good temperament? or every day have a good temperament? or every day like Friday where NASDAQ is down 4%. like Friday where NASDAQ is down 4%. like Friday where NASDAQ is down 4%. They run around with their hair on fire. They run around with their hair on fire. They run around with their hair on fire. This is the big one. It's all over. Like This is the big one. It's all over. Like This is the big one. It's all over. Like if they have that sort of attitude, I if they have that sort of attitude, I if they have that sort of attitude, I don't have room for them. don't have room for them. don't have room for them. >> I I I think I think you would uh >> I I I think I think you would uh >> I I I think I think you would uh probably I'm guessing you have an probably I'm guessing you have an probably I'm guessing you have an opinion either positive or negative on opinion either positive or negative on opinion either positive or negative on the the uh what's his name? The rich dad the the uh what's his name? The rich dad the the uh what's his name? The rich dad poor dad guy. Uh I forgot what his name poor dad guy. Uh I forgot what his name poor dad guy. Uh I forgot what his name is. is. is. >> Oh my god. Kayasaki. He's he's been he's >> Oh my god. Kayasaki. He's he's been he's >> Oh my god. Kayasaki. He's he's been he's a chapter in the book and I I never read a chapter in the book and I I never read a chapter in the book and I I never read the book. I didn't know anything about the book. I didn't know anything about the book. I didn't know anything about him. Um, and my colleague Ben Carlson him. Um, and my colleague Ben Carlson him. Um, and my colleague Ben Carlson does a post about some of this is like does a post about some of this is like does a post about some of this is like 10 years ago about some of his tweets 10 years ago about some of his tweets 10 years ago about some of his tweets and they're terrible. Sell sell equity, and they're terrible. Sell sell equity, and they're terrible. Sell sell equity, sell this, sell that. Like he is just sell this, sell that. Like he is just sell this, sell that. Like he is just super bearish the whole 2010s. And then super bearish the whole 2010s. And then super bearish the whole 2010s. And then my favorite tweet of his, which I my favorite tweet of his, which I my favorite tweet of his, which I reference in a chapter in the book on reference in a chapter in the book on reference in a chapter in the book on him, was 2018, get out of US housing, US him, was 2018, get out of US housing, US him, was 2018, get out of US housing, US single family home market. The financial single family home market. The financial single family home market. The financial crisis was the warning shot. Sell crisis was the warning shot. Sell crisis was the warning shot. Sell housing. And ironically, there has never housing. And ironically, there has never housing. And ironically, there has never been a better time in recent history to been a better time in recent history to been a better time in recent history to buy single family homes in the US. And buy single family homes in the US. And buy single family homes in the US. And when I I someone asked me the question, when I I someone asked me the question, when I I someone asked me the question, they said, "Well, how could he he have they said, "Well, how could he he have they said, "Well, how could he he have known the pandemic was going to happen known the pandemic was going to happen known the pandemic was going to happen and all these things happening in and all these things happening in and all these things happening in housing?" And that's the point. That's housing?" And that's the point. That's housing?" And that's the point. That's right. He couldn't have known. What are right. He couldn't have known. What are right. He couldn't have known. What are you telling me? You're defending his you telling me? You're defending his you telling me? You're defending his shitty forecast by saying he couldn't shitty forecast by saying he couldn't shitty forecast by saying he couldn't know the future. That's why you don't know the future. That's why you don't know the future. That's why you don't make forecasts. You don't know the make forecasts. You don't know the make forecasts. You don't know the future. And the takeaway from this is future. And the takeaway from this is future. And the takeaway from this is all of Wall Street, all of finance has a all of Wall Street, all of finance has a all of Wall Street, all of finance has a humility problem. And I say this, I have humility problem. And I say this, I have humility problem. And I say this, I have a lot of my biggest mistakes in the a lot of my biggest mistakes in the a lot of my biggest mistakes in the book. I famously passed on or infamously book. I famously passed on or infamously book. I famously passed on or infamously passed on Robin Hood in 2014 passed on Robin Hood in 2014 passed on Robin Hood in 2014 uh at an $80 million valuation. I an app uh at an $80 million valuation. I an app uh at an $80 million valuation. I an app that lets millennials trade for free. that lets millennials trade for free. that lets millennials trade for free. That is the dumbest idea I've ever heard That is the dumbest idea I've ever heard That is the dumbest idea I've ever heard in my life. Aside from the fact that in my life. Aside from the fact that in my life. Aside from the fact that it's totally off brand with the indexing it's totally off brand with the indexing it's totally off brand with the indexing thing, millennials don't even have thing, millennials don't even have thing, millennials don't even have money. What is if this is, you know, money. What is if this is, you know, money. What is if this is, you know, payment for order flow? The dumbest idea payment for order flow? The dumbest idea payment for order flow? The dumbest idea I've ever heard. My buddy Howard uh I've ever heard. My buddy Howard uh I've ever heard. My buddy Howard uh Linden made $100 million on on that Linden made $100 million on on that Linden made $100 million on on that investment. And I'm an investor in in investment. And I'm an investor in in investment. And I'm an investor in in other things Howard has done and I was other things Howard has done and I was other things Howard has done and I was just like, uh, so stupid. Um, so I'm not just like, uh, so stupid. Um, so I'm not just like, uh, so stupid. Um, so I'm not just saying everybody's dumb and I'm just saying everybody's dumb and I'm just saying everybody's dumb and I'm smart. I'm as dumb as everybody else. smart. I'm as dumb as everybody else. smart. I'm as dumb as everybody else. But at least I'm kind of aware of it and But at least I'm kind of aware of it and But at least I'm kind of aware of it and starting to from the place of we all starting to from the place of we all starting to from the place of we all need a little humility because we don't need a little humility because we don't need a little humility because we don't know what's going to happen. We barely know what's going to happen. We barely know what's going to happen. We barely know what's happening today. Our know what's happening today. Our know what's happening today. Our recollection of what happened yesterday recollection of what happened yesterday recollection of what happened yesterday is always tinged with a a little glow of is always tinged with a a little glow of is always tinged with a a little glow of rosy nostalgia. The our our expectations rosy nostalgia. The our our expectations rosy nostalgia. The our our expectations for the future is mostly um hopes and for the future is mostly um hopes and for the future is mostly um hopes and wishful thinking. Like the whole human wishful thinking. Like the whole human wishful thinking. Like the whole human condition requires a little more condition requires a little more condition requires a little more humbleness in admitting how little we humbleness in admitting how little we humbleness in admitting how little we know about what's going on. Help me a know about what's going on. Help me a know about what's going on. Help me a little bit here. I love like you have little bit here. I love like you have little bit here. I love like you have this post that I love. It's called this post that I love. It's called this post that I love. It's called Nobody Knows Anything and you basically Nobody Knows Anything and you basically Nobody Knows Anything and you basically like say this one's about SpaceX, but like say this one's about SpaceX, but like say this one's about SpaceX, but the the premise of a lot of your post is the the premise of a lot of your post is the the premise of a lot of your post is like Goldman whatever the big the big like Goldman whatever the big the big like Goldman whatever the big the big shots they make these predictions and shots they make these predictions and shots they make these predictions and the truth is is it's just so hard to the truth is is it's just so hard to the truth is is it's just so hard to forecast. And you said that 90% of forecast. And you said that 90% of forecast. And you said that 90% of information out there is garbage, information out there is garbage, information out there is garbage, >> right? What's what's your 10%. Who can I >> right? What's what's your 10%. Who can I >> right? What's what's your 10%. Who can I uh read right now um and get my uh read right now um and get my uh read right now um and get my information from whether it be news or information from whether it be news or information from whether it be news or evergreen stuff that uh is the 10% in evergreen stuff that uh is the 10% in evergreen stuff that uh is the 10% in your opinion? your opinion? your opinion? >> Sure. So, I'll give you my list, but the >> Sure. So, I'll give you my list, but the >> Sure. So, I'll give you my list, but the caveat is the process of you figuring caveat is the process of you figuring caveat is the process of you figuring out who should be on your list is very out who should be on your list is very out who should be on your list is very helpful. Going through the process, helpful. Going through the process, helpful. Going through the process, thinking about it, what do I need? What thinking about it, what do I need? What thinking about it, what do I need? What do I need help for? So, let me throw out do I need help for? So, let me throw out do I need help for? So, let me throw out a bunch of names. a bunch of names. a bunch of names. We want the whole information diet. We want the whole information diet. We want the whole information diet. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> And and by the way, obviously my whole >> And and by the way, obviously my whole >> And and by the way, obviously my whole team is a big part of this. Uh Josh team is a big part of this. Uh Josh team is a big part of this. Uh Josh Brown, Michael Batnik, Nick Majuli, Ben Brown, Michael Batnik, Nick Majuli, Ben Brown, Michael Batnik, Nick Majuli, Ben Carlson, Blair Dukasy, go through the Carlson, Blair Dukasy, go through the Carlson, Blair Dukasy, go through the whole list. There's a lot of us writing. whole list. There's a lot of us writing. whole list. There's a lot of us writing. So I I don't want to just talk about my So I I don't want to just talk about my So I I don't want to just talk about my group. It's a little too group. It's a little too group. It's a little too self-promotional. Let me talk about self-promotional. Let me talk about self-promotional. Let me talk about others. So let me start with just broad others. So let me start with just broad others. So let me start with just broad economic analysis. Uh it's hard to do economic analysis. Uh it's hard to do economic analysis. Uh it's hard to do better than Ed Yardini. Um he is very better than Ed Yardini. Um he is very better than Ed Yardini. Um he is very thoughtful, very datadriven. He's been thoughtful, very datadriven. He's been thoughtful, very datadriven. He's been very constructive and bullish during very constructive and bullish during very constructive and bullish during this market. He very constructively this market. He very constructively this market. He very constructively said, "Hey, you know, the US has had a said, "Hey, you know, the US has had a said, "Hey, you know, the US has had a great run. We're starting to see signs great run. We're starting to see signs great run. We're starting to see signs of overseas doing better. Um he's just of overseas doing better. Um he's just of overseas doing better. Um he's just been a solid solid guy. He's been doing been a solid solid guy. He's been doing been a solid solid guy. He's been doing it for 40 years. He started at Deutsche it for 40 years. He started at Deutsche it for 40 years. He started at Deutsche Bank. Um really solid. Bank. Um really solid. Bank. Um really solid. >> It looks like Ed Jardini's paid, right? >> It looks like Ed Jardini's paid, right? >> It looks like Ed Jardini's paid, right? That's not a free one." Yeah, Ed Yardini That's not a free one." Yeah, Ed Yardini That's not a free one." Yeah, Ed Yardini is paid. If I want to look at market is paid. If I want to look at market is paid. If I want to look at market dynamics and structure, that's Sam Row. dynamics and structure, that's Sam Row. dynamics and structure, that's Sam Row. Sam Row, you could do the free version, Sam Row, you could do the free version, Sam Row, you could do the free version, you could do the full version, and is a you could do the full version, and is a you could do the full version, and is a little more uh expensive. On the little more uh expensive. On the little more uh expensive. On the behavioral finance side, uh it's tough behavioral finance side, uh it's tough behavioral finance side, uh it's tough to beat Morgan Howell. He just is a to beat Morgan Howell. He just is a to beat Morgan Howell. He just is a great storyteller. Uh really gives a lot great storyteller. Uh really gives a lot great storyteller. Uh really gives a lot of insight with that. Real estate is of insight with that. Real estate is of insight with that. Real estate is Jonathan Miller. Um I've been tracking Jonathan Miller. Um I've been tracking Jonathan Miller. Um I've been tracking Jonathan for forever. I'm friends with Jonathan for forever. I'm friends with Jonathan for forever. I'm friends with him personally. like here's a guy that him personally. like here's a guy that him personally. like here's a guy that really understands uh what's happening really understands uh what's happening really understands uh what's happening with with both residential real estate with with both residential real estate with with both residential real estate and and the state of of prices in the and and the state of of prices in the and and the state of of prices in the industry. You know, as you go further industry. You know, as you go further industry. You know, as you go further and further into the weeds, so Jim and further into the weeds, so Jim and further into the weeds, so Jim Chenos for all things shortelling, Chenos for all things shortelling, Chenos for all things shortelling, Michael Lewis for all things Wall Street Michael Lewis for all things Wall Street Michael Lewis for all things Wall Street culture and and psychology, he has a new culture and and psychology, he has a new culture and and psychology, he has a new book coming out in the fall on Doge. I'm book coming out in the fall on Doge. I'm book coming out in the fall on Doge. I'm really looking forward to it. By the really looking forward to it. By the really looking forward to it. By the way, Michael Lewis is one of these guys way, Michael Lewis is one of these guys way, Michael Lewis is one of these guys that you think you have an idea of who that you think you have an idea of who that you think you have an idea of who he is from his books and then you hear he is from his books and then you hear he is from his books and then you hear him speak and he is just hilarious. Um him speak and he is just hilarious. Um him speak and he is just hilarious. Um Dick Thaylor is the other one. Richard Dick Thaylor is the other one. Richard Dick Thaylor is the other one. Richard Thaylor uh of of Chicago on on the real Thaylor uh of of Chicago on on the real Thaylor uh of of Chicago on on the real hardcore research on uh behavioral hardcore research on uh behavioral hardcore research on uh behavioral finance. There's so many people I'm finance. There's so many people I'm finance. There's so many people I'm leaving so many so many people leaving so many so many people leaving so many so many people >> like Autism Capital. The Twitter handle >> like Autism Capital. The Twitter handle >> like Autism Capital. The Twitter handle hasn't made the list so far. Um, you hasn't made the list so far. Um, you hasn't made the list so far. Um, you know, there's actually some academic know, there's actually some academic know, there's actually some academic research that has found research that has found research that has found neuroatypicals do better at market neuroatypicals do better at market neuroatypicals do better at market timing because they are not subject to timing because they are not subject to timing because they are not subject to the same social pressure and emotional the same social pressure and emotional the same social pressure and emotional trading. trading. trading. >> Speaking of SpaceX, have you read the >> Speaking of SpaceX, have you read the >> Speaking of SpaceX, have you read the story in in his biography of Elon's story in in his biography of Elon's story in in his biography of Elon's quick foray into finance, his quick foray into finance, his quick foray into finance, his internship? internship? internship? >> No. >> No. >> No. >> What happened? >> What happened? >> What happened? >> This is a great story. So he goes uh I >> This is a great story. So he goes uh I >> This is a great story. So he goes uh I mean I'll try to recall it off the top mean I'll try to recall it off the top mean I'll try to recall it off the top of my head here, but he he's in school of my head here, but he he's in school of my head here, but he he's in school in Canada. He starts cold calling like in Canada. He starts cold calling like in Canada. He starts cold calling like to get an internship or to get a job. He to get an internship or to get a job. He to get an internship or to get a job. He he calls like, you know, the CEO of some he calls like, you know, the CEO of some he calls like, you know, the CEO of some some investment bank or some bank out some investment bank or some bank out some investment bank or some bank out there and he goes and he gets a job and there and he goes and he gets a job and there and he goes and he gets a job and he's supposed to be doing whatever he's he's supposed to be doing whatever he's he's supposed to be doing whatever he's doing, but he he starts going really doing, but he he starts going really doing, but he he starts going really deep on um like some South American uh deep on um like some South American uh deep on um like some South American uh oil companies or something like that. oil companies or something like that. oil companies or something like that. something where there was like a something where there was like a something where there was like a political issue and he saw almost like a political issue and he saw almost like a political issue and he saw almost like a Buffett style thing where he's like look Buffett style thing where he's like look Buffett style thing where he's like look they've completely mispriced u these they've completely mispriced u these they've completely mispriced u these assets are mispriced they're trading at assets are mispriced they're trading at assets are mispriced they're trading at the wrong levels because even in the the wrong levels because even in the the wrong levels because even in the worst case scenario you're safe and then worst case scenario you're safe and then worst case scenario you're safe and then there's all the upside of if it if it there's all the upside of if it if it there's all the upside of if it if it actually gets uh opened up or whatever actually gets uh opened up or whatever actually gets uh opened up or whatever he pitches the guy and the guy's like he pitches the guy and the guy's like he pitches the guy and the guy's like okay go find out what we can do so he okay go find out what we can do so he okay go find out what we can do so he calls he's like hey I'm Elon Musk and I calls he's like hey I'm Elon Musk and I calls he's like hey I'm Elon Musk and I would like to place an order a trade would like to place an order a trade would like to place an order a trade like uh how much volume can I do and like uh how much volume can I do and like uh how much volume can I do and they were like you could do whatever you they were like you could do whatever you they were like you could do whatever you want. He's like, "So, I could buy $5 want. He's like, "So, I could buy $5 want. He's like, "So, I could buy $5 million of this right now?" They're million of this right now?" They're million of this right now?" They're like, "Son, you could buy $50 million of like, "Son, you could buy $50 million of like, "Son, you could buy $50 million of this if you want." So, he goes back and this if you want." So, he goes back and this if you want." So, he goes back and he tells the CEO, "Hey, I think we he tells the CEO, "Hey, I think we he tells the CEO, "Hey, I think we should make this huge trade." And then should make this huge trade." And then should make this huge trade." And then basically it gets shot down for just basically it gets shot down for just basically it gets shot down for just like because they were just riskaverse like because they were just riskaverse like because they were just riskaverse and uh he sees that it would have played and uh he sees that it would have played and uh he sees that it would have played out well and he just decides like this out well and he just decides like this out well and he just decides like this whole thing is stupid. like a I'm never whole thing is stupid. like a I'm never whole thing is stupid. like a I'm never going to work for other people because I going to work for other people because I going to work for other people because I presented a completely logical argument presented a completely logical argument presented a completely logical argument and it got shot down for illogical and it got shot down for illogical and it got shot down for illogical reasons and so I just never want to be reasons and so I just never want to be reasons and so I just never want to be in that position again and also I should in that position again and also I should in that position again and also I should just go build things instead of just do just go build things instead of just do just go build things instead of just do this financial engineering stuff. I this financial engineering stuff. I this financial engineering stuff. I should go do actual engineering and he should go do actual engineering and he should go do actual engineering and he leaves and he never never comes back. leaves and he never never comes back. leaves and he never never comes back. >> He was a failed retail stock broker. Is >> He was a failed retail stock broker. Is >> He was a failed retail stock broker. Is that what you told me? There's no that what you told me? There's no that what you told me? There's no financial engineering there. He had no financial engineering there. He had no financial engineering there. He had no track record. He was a rookie. Why would track record. He was a rookie. Why would track record. He was a rookie. Why would anyone listen to him? That that's that's anyone listen to him? That that's that's anyone listen to him? That that's that's the amazing thing. When you look back at the amazing thing. When you look back at the amazing thing. When you look back at Warren Buffett in 1967, Warren Buffett in 1967, Warren Buffett in 1967, I think half the people who who heard I think half the people who who heard I think half the people who who heard his pitch would like, eh, why do I want his pitch would like, eh, why do I want his pitch would like, eh, why do I want to listen to this guy? I started out as to listen to this guy? I started out as to listen to this guy? I started out as a math and science student at Stonybrook a math and science student at Stonybrook a math and science student at Stonybrook undergraduate. The outgoing undergraduate. The outgoing undergraduate. The outgoing department chair, uh, mathematics department chair, uh, mathematics department chair, uh, mathematics department chair was this guy named Jim department chair was this guy named Jim department chair was this guy named Jim Simons leaves to form Renaissance Simons leaves to form Renaissance Simons leaves to form Renaissance Technologies, the most successful hedge Technologies, the most successful hedge Technologies, the most successful hedge fund in all of history. If you would fund in all of history. If you would fund in all of history. If you would have met this guy in 1979, you you would have met this guy in 1979, you you would have met this guy in 1979, you you would say, "Why? This guy looked homeless." say, "Why? This guy looked homeless." say, "Why? This guy looked homeless." >> Yeah. I saw him. He looked like he was >> Yeah. I saw him. He looked like he was >> Yeah. I saw him. He looked like he was he looked like a messy student and he he looked like a messy student and he he looked like a messy student and he was smoking sigs all the time. He kind was smoking sigs all the time. He kind was smoking sigs all the time. He kind of looked like a filthy animal. of looked like a filthy animal. of looked like a filthy animal. >> You You would think this guy I'm like, >> You You would think this guy I'm like, >> You You would think this guy I'm like, I'm not giving this guy my money. He's I'm not giving this guy my money. He's I'm not giving this guy my money. He's going to smoke it. going to smoke it. going to smoke it. >> Uh Sean, what are you what are you >> Uh Sean, what are you what are you >> Uh Sean, what are you what are you pulling up here? You're breaking out the pulling up here? You're breaking out the pulling up here? You're breaking out the textbook. textbook. textbook. >> I got the I got the story. All right. >> I got the I got the story. All right. >> I got the I got the story. All right. This is about Latin American debt. Banks This is about Latin American debt. Banks This is about Latin American debt. Banks had made billions in loans to countries had made billions in loans to countries had made billions in loans to countries such as Brazil and Mexico. They could such as Brazil and Mexico. They could such as Brazil and Mexico. They could not be repaid. The secretary, Nicholas not be repaid. The secretary, Nicholas not be repaid. The secretary, Nicholas Brady, had packaged those debt Brady, had packaged those debt Brady, had packaged those debt obligations in something known as Brady obligations in something known as Brady obligations in something known as Brady bonds. Yes, exactly. Uh they were backed bonds. Yes, exactly. Uh they were backed bonds. Yes, exactly. Uh they were backed by the US government. Must believe they by the US government. Must believe they by the US government. Must believe they would always be worth at least 50 cents would always be worth at least 50 cents would always be worth at least 50 cents on the dollar, but some were selling as on the dollar, but some were selling as on the dollar, but some were selling as low as 20 cents. He figured that Scotia low as 20 cents. He figured that Scotia low as 20 cents. He figured that Scotia Bank could make billions if they bought Bank could make billions if they bought Bank could make billions if they bought these at a cheap price. So he called the these at a cheap price. So he called the these at a cheap price. So he called the trading desk and he asked, you know, the trading desk and he asked, you know, the trading desk and he asked, you know, the stuff I said. He thought to himself, stuff I said. He thought to himself, stuff I said. He thought to himself, "Jackpot, this is a no- lose "Jackpot, this is a no- lose "Jackpot, this is a no- lose proposition." I run and I tell Peter, proposition." I run and I tell Peter, proposition." I run and I tell Peter, the CEO, about it. The bank ends up the CEO, about it. The bank ends up the CEO, about it. The bank ends up rejecting the idea. They said they rejecting the idea. They said they rejecting the idea. They said they already had too much Latin American already had too much Latin American already had too much Latin American debt. He said, "Wow, this is insane. Is debt. He said, "Wow, this is insane. Is debt. He said, "Wow, this is insane. Is this how big banks think?" Um, he goes, this how big banks think?" Um, he goes, this how big banks think?" Um, he goes, "It was a good thing. It gave me a "It was a good thing. It gave me a "It was a good thing. It gave me a healthy disrespect for the financial healthy disrespect for the financial healthy disrespect for the financial industry, and that gave me the audacity industry, and that gave me the audacity industry, and that gave me the audacity to eventually start what became PayPal." to eventually start what became PayPal." to eventually start what became PayPal." >> He didn't really start PayPal. He >> He didn't really start PayPal. He >> He didn't really start PayPal. He started a competitive product, and started a competitive product, and started a competitive product, and eventually it was merged to PayPal. But eventually it was merged to PayPal. But eventually it was merged to PayPal. But let's not let that get in the way of the let's not let that get in the way of the let's not let that get in the way of the story. All right. So, he had a good story. All right. So, he had a good story. All right. So, he had a good idea. idea. idea. >> You do you have a lot of enemies? >> You do you have a lot of enemies? >> You do you have a lot of enemies? >> A few. I don't I I have no choice. I I I >> A few. I don't I I have no choice. I I I >> A few. I don't I I have no choice. I I I can't help it. can't help it. can't help it. >> You just came here spitting fire, man. >> You just came here spitting fire, man. >> You just came here spitting fire, man. Like Like Like something that's [ __ ] I can't help something that's [ __ ] I can't help something that's [ __ ] I can't help but I know discretion is the better part but I know discretion is the better part but I know discretion is the better part of valor, but when people are out there of valor, but when people are out there of valor, but when people are out there saying stuff saying stuff saying stuff >> that is nonsense that ultimately leads >> that is nonsense that ultimately leads >> that is nonsense that ultimately leads people to um lose money. people to um lose money. people to um lose money. >> Do you think you ever have to get >> Do you think you ever have to get >> Do you think you ever have to get security? security? security? >> No. Listen, if someone wanted me dead, I >> No. Listen, if someone wanted me dead, I >> No. Listen, if someone wanted me dead, I would have been dead a long time ago. would have been dead a long time ago. would have been dead a long time ago. That's that's not a uh And who wants to That's that's not a uh And who wants to That's that's not a uh And who wants to live their life that way? live their life that way? live their life that way? >> What did he say? that makes you think he >> What did he say? that makes you think he >> What did he say? that makes you think he needs security from who? The guy needs security from who? The guy needs security from who? The guy Kawasaki. Kawasaki. Kawasaki. >> No, man. No, I'm not that nerd. But I'm >> No, man. No, I'm not that nerd. But I'm >> No, man. No, I'm not that nerd. But I'm just saying that like when you deal with just saying that like when you deal with just saying that like when you deal with big numbers and you have a big audience big numbers and you have a big audience big numbers and you have a big audience and you're dealing with people's money and you're dealing with people's money and you're dealing with people's money and stuff, I sometimes I think of like and stuff, I sometimes I think of like and stuff, I sometimes I think of like the riskreward of just like having the riskreward of just like having the riskreward of just like having someone on, you know, around you when someone on, you know, around you when someone on, you know, around you when you go to the city. you go to the city. you go to the city. >> Nobody cares. I I got bad news for you. >> Nobody cares. I I got bad news for you. >> Nobody cares. I I got bad news for you. Nobody cares that much about me. I'm not Nobody cares that much about me. I'm not Nobody cares that much about me. I'm not I'm not that important. And look, here's I'm not that important. And look, here's I'm not that important. And look, here's the reality. I've the reality. I've the reality. I've >> Well, it's not the eight billion. I >> Well, it's not the eight billion. I >> Well, it's not the eight billion. I mean, that is impressive, but what's I mean, that is impressive, but what's I mean, that is impressive, but what's I mean, you have a you have a microphone. mean, you have a you have a microphone. mean, you have a you have a microphone. when you have an audience. when you have an audience. when you have an audience. >> Yeah. So in the modern world, it's a >> Yeah. So in the modern world, it's a >> Yeah. So in the modern world, it's a cacophony of voices. No one voice is cacophony of voices. No one voice is cacophony of voices. No one voice is dominant. And and you know, Elon Musk dominant. And and you know, Elon Musk dominant. And and you know, Elon Musk bought Twitter. And so his voice bought Twitter. And so his voice bought Twitter. And so his voice is amplified when you look at the value is amplified when you look at the value is amplified when you look at the value he's created over the years. All right. he's created over the years. All right. he's created over the years. All right. So whatever the PayPal merger ended up So whatever the PayPal merger ended up So whatever the PayPal merger ended up being and then Tesla and now SpaceX, he being and then Tesla and now SpaceX, he being and then Tesla and now SpaceX, he doesn't have to exaggerate. This guy has doesn't have to exaggerate. This guy has doesn't have to exaggerate. This guy has changed the world, right? Tesla changed the world, right? Tesla changed the world, right? Tesla completely changed the automobile completely changed the automobile completely changed the automobile industry. SpaceX completely changed a industry. SpaceX completely changed a industry. SpaceX completely changed a number of industries. Uh aerospace, number of industries. Uh aerospace, number of industries. Uh aerospace, um the the concept of getting anything um the the concept of getting anything um the the concept of getting anything into Earth orbit, satellite. I mean, into Earth orbit, satellite. I mean, into Earth orbit, satellite. I mean, he's had such a giant impact. he's had such a giant impact. he's had such a giant impact. You don't need to polish the Heiography. You don't need to polish the Heiography. You don't need to polish the Heiography. Your accomplishments speak for Your accomplishments speak for Your accomplishments speak for themselves. So I have to burnish my themselves. So I have to burnish my themselves. So I have to burnish my crappy undergraduate and graduate crappy undergraduate and graduate crappy undergraduate and graduate career. I I I don't have that much to career. I I I don't have that much to career. I I I don't have that much to brag about from then when I see a guy brag about from then when I see a guy brag about from then when I see a guy like that. Um like he didn't found like that. Um like he didn't found like that. Um like he didn't found Tesla, he joined Tesla later. His genius Tesla, he joined Tesla later. His genius Tesla, he joined Tesla later. His genius was recognizing, oh no, what you need to was recognizing, oh no, what you need to was recognizing, oh no, what you need to do is sell a car that's just miles away do is sell a car that's just miles away do is sell a car that's just miles away from everybody else and don't think like from everybody else and don't think like from everybody else and don't think like a traditional car company. this is a a traditional car company. this is a a traditional car company. this is a technology appliance, not uh an internal technology appliance, not uh an internal technology appliance, not uh an internal combustion engine. Like I give him combustion engine. Like I give him combustion engine. Like I give him credit for the stuff he's done that's credit for the stuff he's done that's credit for the stuff he's done that's moved the needle. Uh I I'm not a fan of moved the needle. Uh I I'm not a fan of moved the needle. Uh I I'm not a fan of the SpaceX IPO, but I sure as hell don't the SpaceX IPO, but I sure as hell don't the SpaceX IPO, but I sure as hell don't want to bet against him. He's just want to bet against him. He's just want to bet against him. He's just proven himself time and time again. You proven himself time and time again. You proven himself time and time again. You know, he's a tough guy to be on the know, he's a tough guy to be on the know, he's a tough guy to be on the opposite side of the trade front. opposite side of the trade front. opposite side of the trade front. >> Can we um I want to go back to the >> Can we um I want to go back to the >> Can we um I want to go back to the bragging question. I want to because uh bragging question. I want to because uh bragging question. I want to because uh I know you've been doing this forever. I know you've been doing this forever. I know you've been doing this forever. I've listened to your podcast and read I've listened to your podcast and read I've listened to your podcast and read your blog, but I still want to know as your blog, but I still want to know as your blog, but I still want to know as an entrepreneur an entrepreneur an entrepreneur the business. So, can you give like a the business. So, can you give like a the business. So, can you give like a short answer to like just some of the short answer to like just some of the short answer to like just some of the numbers about how big the firm is? numbers about how big the firm is? numbers about how big the firm is? >> So, the last uh ADV update we did with >> So, the last uh ADV update we did with >> So, the last uh ADV update we did with the SEC was December 31st. Uh that was the SEC was December 31st. Uh that was the SEC was December 31st. Uh that was $7.6 billion. But when we launched in $7.6 billion. But when we launched in $7.6 billion. But when we launched in 2013, 2013, 2013, that was the start of the third best that was the start of the third best that was the start of the third best 15-year run in history. Does that mean 15-year run in history. Does that mean 15-year run in history. Does that mean like it's a $50 million a year company? like it's a $50 million a year company? like it's a $50 million a year company? >> We don't because we're private, we don't >> We don't because we're private, we don't >> We don't because we're private, we don't disclose our um revenue and stuff, but disclose our um revenue and stuff, but disclose our um revenue and stuff, but you know, we average somewhere around 70 you know, we average somewhere around 70 you know, we average somewhere around 70 basis points uh in terms of our our basis points uh in terms of our our basis points uh in terms of our our fees. When we were a billion dollars, we fees. When we were a billion dollars, we fees. When we were a billion dollars, we had like 35 people. The typical billion had like 35 people. The typical billion had like 35 people. The typical billion dollar group at a big bracket firm is dollar group at a big bracket firm is dollar group at a big bracket firm is two salespeople, a sales assistant, and two salespeople, a sales assistant, and two salespeople, a sales assistant, and someone helping on portfolio. So that someone helping on portfolio. So that someone helping on portfolio. So that that would be four people. We were that would be four people. We were that would be four people. We were almost 10x that. So we've always been almost 10x that. So we've always been almost 10x that. So we've always been building as if our growth rate is going building as if our growth rate is going building as if our growth rate is going to continue and we've been growing uh to continue and we've been growing uh to continue and we've been growing uh about 30% a year since we launched. about 30% a year since we launched. about 30% a year since we launched. >> So you you said you famously called the >> So you you said you famously called the >> So you you said you famously called the housing crisis and from what I housing crisis and from what I housing crisis and from what I understand there's an interesting story understand there's an interesting story understand there's an interesting story there. there. there. >> So so first and this is so dumb. My mom >> So so first and this is so dumb. My mom >> So so first and this is so dumb. My mom was a real estate agent and so in ' 03, was a real estate agent and so in ' 03, was a real estate agent and so in ' 03, 04,05 we were having all these 04,05 we were having all these 04,05 we were having all these conversations about how weird the real conversations about how weird the real conversations about how weird the real estate market was and the normal cycle estate market was and the normal cycle estate market was and the normal cycle is come out of a recession, the economy is come out of a recession, the economy is come out of a recession, the economy begins to expand. And when I'm looking begins to expand. And when I'm looking begins to expand. And when I'm looking at all that data prefinancial crisis, at all that data prefinancial crisis, at all that data prefinancial crisis, nothing lined up with what you typically nothing lined up with what you typically nothing lined up with what you typically see. It was very much a backwards real see. It was very much a backwards real see. It was very much a backwards real estate driven economy. In other words, estate driven economy. In other words, estate driven economy. In other words, instead of real estate being the instead of real estate being the instead of real estate being the beneficiary of an expanding economy, beneficiary of an expanding economy, beneficiary of an expanding economy, more hires, better income, it was the more hires, better income, it was the more hires, better income, it was the opposite. And so, anytime you bought a opposite. And so, anytime you bought a opposite. And so, anytime you bought a house, you could refinance a few years house, you could refinance a few years house, you could refinance a few years later at a lower price. And some people later at a lower price. And some people later at a lower price. And some people were doing home equity lines of credit were doing home equity lines of credit were doing home equity lines of credit and taking cash to subsidize their and taking cash to subsidize their and taking cash to subsidize their lifestyle because in the mid200s middle lifestyle because in the mid200s middle lifestyle because in the mid200s middle class workers hadn't really seen uh class workers hadn't really seen uh class workers hadn't really seen uh raises above inflation for decades. And raises above inflation for decades. And raises above inflation for decades. And so people were spending the equity in so people were spending the equity in so people were spending the equity in their homes. And so I started hunting their homes. And so I started hunting their homes. And so I started hunting for some data and for some academic for some data and for some academic for some data and for some academic research. And in 2006, Rey Hart and research. And in 2006, Rey Hart and research. And in 2006, Rey Hart and Rogoff did a white paper uh that Rogoff did a white paper uh that Rogoff did a white paper uh that eventually became the book This Time is eventually became the book This Time is eventually became the book This Time is Different: 800 Years of Financial Folly. Different: 800 Years of Financial Folly. Different: 800 Years of Financial Folly. And the white paper said when you have a And the white paper said when you have a And the white paper said when you have a bubble driven by credit, on average, we bubble driven by credit, on average, we bubble driven by credit, on average, we see real estate dropping 32%. And I use see real estate dropping 32%. And I use see real estate dropping 32%. And I use that as a leaping off point to say, "All that as a leaping off point to say, "All that as a leaping off point to say, "All right, I'm too lazy to do all 500 S&P right, I'm too lazy to do all 500 S&P right, I'm too lazy to do all 500 S&P stocks, but let's look at the 30 Dow stocks, but let's look at the 30 Dow stocks, but let's look at the 30 Dow stocks." And what does a 32% drop in stocks." And what does a 32% drop in stocks." And what does a 32% drop in real estate mean to their business, to real estate mean to their business, to real estate mean to their business, to their revenue? And long story short, I their revenue? And long story short, I their revenue? And long story short, I kind of spitball a price of 6,800. How kind of spitball a price of 6,800. How kind of spitball a price of 6,800. How contrarian of a belief was that? contrarian of a belief was that? contrarian of a belief was that? >> All the stuff I had been writing about >> All the stuff I had been writing about >> All the stuff I had been writing about uh housing and and subprime and uh housing and and subprime and uh housing and and subprime and derivatives, it was all up on the blog. derivatives, it was all up on the blog. derivatives, it was all up on the blog. It was all very public. So, you know, It was all very public. So, you know, It was all very public. So, you know, and he spent about a year being the and he spent about a year being the and he spent about a year being the dumbest man on Wall Street, which was dumbest man on Wall Street, which was dumbest man on Wall Street, which was kind of fun. All of '07, it's like, kind of fun. All of '07, it's like, kind of fun. All of '07, it's like, you're obviously an idiot. And even the you're obviously an idiot. And even the you're obviously an idiot. And even the piece that talked about 6,800 said, piece that talked about 6,800 said, piece that talked about 6,800 said, look, the market is in an uptrend. We look, the market is in an uptrend. We look, the market is in an uptrend. We continue to see multiple expansion. You continue to see multiple expansion. You continue to see multiple expansion. You don't put on a short. You don't get out don't put on a short. You don't get out don't put on a short. You don't get out of stocks if you're an institutional of stocks if you're an institutional of stocks if you're an institutional trader until that trend line breaks. And trader until that trend line breaks. And trader until that trend line breaks. And that trend line didn't break for for a that trend line didn't break for for a that trend line didn't break for for a solid year and change. So I spent a year solid year and change. So I spent a year solid year and change. So I spent a year being pretty much the the dumbest person being pretty much the the dumbest person being pretty much the the dumbest person on Wall Street. Starting in January, on Wall Street. Starting in January, on Wall Street. Starting in January, February, March of08, Cuddlo started February, March of08, Cuddlo started February, March of08, Cuddlo started having me on every week and then twice a having me on every week and then twice a having me on every week and then twice a week and then it just got to be mayhem week and then it just got to be mayhem week and then it just got to be mayhem because, you know, nobody saw it come. I because, you know, nobody saw it come. I because, you know, nobody saw it come. I should say very few people saw it should say very few people saw it should say very few people saw it coming. I I recall being on CNBC with um coming. I I recall being on CNBC with um coming. I I recall being on CNBC with um Peter Bookvar and they literally when we Peter Bookvar and they literally when we Peter Bookvar and they literally when we talked about, you know, the potential talked about, you know, the potential talked about, you know, the potential downside and I want to say this was late downside and I want to say this was late downside and I want to say this was late ' 07, they literally literally laughed ' 07, they literally literally laughed ' 07, they literally literally laughed at us and I remember walking our offices at us and I remember walking our offices at us and I remember walking our offices were not that far and I'm like either were not that far and I'm like either were not that far and I'm like either we're really right or we're really wrong we're really right or we're really wrong we're really right or we're really wrong but there's nowhere in between. but there's nowhere in between. but there's nowhere in between. >> Do you guys remember the book Snowball >> Do you guys remember the book Snowball >> Do you guys remember the book Snowball about Warren Buffett? about Warren Buffett? about Warren Buffett? >> Sure. Absolutely. I just I just started >> Sure. Absolutely. I just I just started >> Sure. Absolutely. I just I just started reading it and the very first scene is reading it and the very first scene is reading it and the very first scene is basically Warren Buffett at the Allen Co basically Warren Buffett at the Allen Co basically Warren Buffett at the Allen Co conference which is the who's who. So conference which is the who's who. So conference which is the who's who. So it's always like the hottest new kids it's always like the hottest new kids it's always like the hottest new kids plus like the old guard in this in the plus like the old guard in this in the plus like the old guard in this in the room together. And at this time it was room together. And at this time it was room together. And at this time it was all the best.com companies and they're all the best.com companies and they're all the best.com companies and they're all there thinking they're the hot [ __ ] all there thinking they're the hot [ __ ] all there thinking they're the hot [ __ ] Sort of like how AI companies are now. Sort of like how AI companies are now. Sort of like how AI companies are now. They think they're the best. And Warren They think they're the best. And Warren They think they're the best. And Warren has this famous line. I think he says um has this famous line. I think he says um has this famous line. I think he says um only criticize a category. He never only criticize a category. He never only criticize a category. He never criticized like a particular name and criticized like a particular name and criticized like a particular name and I'll compliment particular names. So he I'll compliment particular names. So he I'll compliment particular names. So he tries to be the point is he tries to be tries to be the point is he tries to be tries to be the point is he tries to be really polite about it. But he basically really polite about it. But he basically really polite about it. But he basically says the dot thing it's going to be bad says the dot thing it's going to be bad says the dot thing it's going to be bad and if you look at like car companies in and if you look at like car companies in and if you look at like car companies in the 1920s you would have thought that the 1920s you would have thought that the 1920s you would have thought that you knowing how cars are going to end you knowing how cars are going to end you knowing how cars are going to end the place to be is in cars right now. We the place to be is in cars right now. We the place to be is in cars right now. We got to start a car company. But of the got to start a car company. But of the got to start a car company. But of the 2,000 car companies who launched right 2,000 car companies who launched right 2,000 car companies who launched right when the boom was happening basically when the boom was happening basically when the boom was happening basically like three still exist and most went out like three still exist and most went out like three still exist and most went out of business. And he basically said this of business. And he basically said this of business. And he basically said this is what's going to happen with dotcoms. is what's going to happen with dotcoms. is what's going to happen with dotcoms. And he tried to do it very respectfully, And he tried to do it very respectfully, And he tried to do it very respectfully, but it was still very insulting to the but it was still very insulting to the but it was still very insulting to the audience because they were there. And I audience because they were there. And I audience because they were there. And I think he even made like a bunch of think he even made like a bunch of think he even made like a bunch of jokes. He was like, "You guys, I think jokes. He was like, "You guys, I think jokes. He was like, "You guys, I think he even said something like, "You guys he even said something like, "You guys he even said something like, "You guys all even have mis mistresses probably all even have mis mistresses probably all even have mis mistresses probably right now. You think you're you think right now. You think you're you think right now. You think you're you think you're the best, but it's going to come. you're the best, but it's going to come. you're the best, but it's going to come. It's going to come." And it's sort of It's going to come." And it's sort of It's going to come." And it's sort of interesting to figure out inside of interesting to figure out inside of interesting to figure out inside of someone's head when they see this one someone's head when they see this one someone's head when they see this one bit of data and they're and they make bit of data and they're and they make bit of data and they're and they make this very contrarian bet and how even this very contrarian bet and how even this very contrarian bet and how even Warren Buffett was like quite nervous Warren Buffett was like quite nervous Warren Buffett was like quite nervous about that. He goes, "I know I'm going about that. He goes, "I know I'm going about that. He goes, "I know I'm going to be right, but if I'm not right soon, to be right, but if I'm not right soon, to be right, but if I'm not right soon, then I'm really going to look stupid then I'm really going to look stupid then I'm really going to look stupid here." And I think that's like that here." And I think that's like that here." And I think that's like that behavior of like making that call is behavior of like making that call is behavior of like making that call is actually quite fascinating. There's a actually quite fascinating. There's a actually quite fascinating. There's a famous technical trader from, you know, famous technical trader from, you know, famous technical trader from, you know, the 1920s and and 19s called Richard the 1920s and and 19s called Richard the 1920s and and 19s called Richard Woff and he wrote a book, How I Trade Woff and he wrote a book, How I Trade Woff and he wrote a book, How I Trade and Invest in Stocks and Bonds. And if and Invest in Stocks and Bonds. And if and Invest in Stocks and Bonds. And if you would go back and read that book, you would go back and read that book, you would go back and read that book, everything he talks about, just everything he talks about, just everything he talks about, just substitute AI for inter for for telegram substitute AI for inter for for telegram substitute AI for inter for for telegram and dotcoms for railroads and it could and dotcoms for railroads and it could and dotcoms for railroads and it could have been written last year. It's over have been written last year. It's over have been written last year. It's over 100 years old and it's as fresh as 100 years old and it's as fresh as 100 years old and it's as fresh as nothing ever changes. There's nothing nothing ever changes. There's nothing nothing ever changes. There's nothing new over the sun. Yeah, the technology new over the sun. Yeah, the technology new over the sun. Yeah, the technology is is different. is is different. is is different. >> But what's the takeaway which is that >> But what's the takeaway which is that >> But what's the takeaway which is that like new stuff can get overhyped. not like new stuff can get overhyped. not like new stuff can get overhyped. not can get overhyped, always will get can get overhyped, always will get can get overhyped, always will get overhyped, which isn't, by the way, a overhyped, which isn't, by the way, a overhyped, which isn't, by the way, a bad thing. That's a feature, not a bug. bad thing. That's a feature, not a bug. bad thing. That's a feature, not a bug. There's a great book called uh POP, why There's a great book called uh POP, why There's a great book called uh POP, why bubbles are great for the economy. And bubbles are great for the economy. And bubbles are great for the economy. And think about the dot era. Think about all think about the dot era. Think about all think about the dot era. Think about all of the fiber that was laid, global of the fiber that was laid, global of the fiber that was laid, global crossing and metia fiber, and hundreds crossing and metia fiber, and hundreds crossing and metia fiber, and hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars, and hundreds of millions of dollars, and hundreds of millions of dollars, billions of dollars in fiber laid. At billions of dollars in fiber laid. At billions of dollars in fiber laid. At one point in time, I want to say it was one point in time, I want to say it was one point in time, I want to say it was like over $1,000 a mile. The dot like over $1,000 a mile. The dot like over $1,000 a mile. The dot collapse h comes, all these companies go collapse h comes, all these companies go collapse h comes, all these companies go belly up and then the the legacy cable belly up and then the the legacy cable belly up and then the the legacy cable companies and the legacy phone companies companies and the legacy phone companies companies and the legacy phone companies buy it up for pennies per mile. And buy it up for pennies per mile. And buy it up for pennies per mile. And because it was so cheap to own at that because it was so cheap to own at that because it was so cheap to own at that point, all the things that came point, all the things that came point, all the things that came afterwards, YouTube, Facebook, afterwards, YouTube, Facebook, afterwards, YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, all of the bandwidth Instagram, all of the bandwidth Instagram, all of the bandwidth intensive technology, well, they intensive technology, well, they intensive technology, well, they wouldn't have been viable if it was wouldn't have been viable if it was wouldn't have been viable if it was $1,000 a mile to lay fat pipes, but for $1,000 a mile to lay fat pipes, but for $1,000 a mile to lay fat pipes, but for pennies a mile out of bankruptcy. And pennies a mile out of bankruptcy. And pennies a mile out of bankruptcy. And so, I'm not predicting this is going to so, I'm not predicting this is going to so, I'm not predicting this is going to happen with AI, but it happened with happen with AI, but it happened with happen with AI, but it happened with railroads. It happened with televisions. railroads. It happened with televisions. railroads. It happened with televisions. It happened with radio, internet, um, It happened with radio, internet, um, It happened with radio, internet, um, electronics companies, semiconductors, electronics companies, semiconductors, electronics companies, semiconductors, internet, mobile, cars. Go down the internet, mobile, cars. Go down the internet, mobile, cars. Go down the list. Every new technology that comes list. Every new technology that comes list. Every new technology that comes along seems to go through this process. along seems to go through this process. along seems to go through this process. Every new technology is innovative Every new technology is innovative Every new technology is innovative things that are not stuck with all the things that are not stuck with all the things that are not stuck with all the sunk costs and all the legacy platforms. sunk costs and all the legacy platforms. sunk costs and all the legacy platforms. And so they get to move forward faster, And so they get to move forward faster, And so they get to move forward faster, cheaper, better. So, I don't know what cheaper, better. So, I don't know what cheaper, better. So, I don't know what who the winners in AI are going to be, who the winners in AI are going to be, who the winners in AI are going to be, but when we look back at it 20 years but when we look back at it 20 years but when we look back at it 20 years from now, look at the computer industry. from now, look at the computer industry. from now, look at the computer industry. HP, Gateway, go down the list of HP, Gateway, go down the list of HP, Gateway, go down the list of companies that had billion-dollar companies that had billion-dollar companies that had billion-dollar valuations and effectively went down to valuations and effectively went down to valuations and effectively went down to zero. You could do the same thing with zero. You could do the same thing with zero. You could do the same thing with mobile phones. How's that uh Ericson mobile phones. How's that uh Ericson mobile phones. How's that uh Ericson phone do you have? Are you going to phone do you have? Are you going to phone do you have? Are you going to replace it with the new Nokia? Oh, wait. replace it with the new Nokia? Oh, wait. replace it with the new Nokia? Oh, wait. Nobody buys that [ __ ] anymore. Even Nobody buys that [ __ ] anymore. Even Nobody buys that [ __ ] anymore. Even Motorola, they're gone. because between Motorola, they're gone. because between Motorola, they're gone. because between the iPhone and Android, everything else the iPhone and Android, everything else the iPhone and Android, everything else has been replaced. has been replaced. has been replaced. >> It's nice to talk to someone, Barry, who >> It's nice to talk to someone, Barry, who >> It's nice to talk to someone, Barry, who uh doesn't hold back. I think you're uh doesn't hold back. I think you're uh doesn't hold back. I think you're you're we thoroughly enjoy that. Uh and you're we thoroughly enjoy that. Uh and you're we thoroughly enjoy that. Uh and you know, Sean and I have been uh seeing you know, Sean and I have been uh seeing you know, Sean and I have been uh seeing your stuff pop up for years. We're happy your stuff pop up for years. We're happy your stuff pop up for years. We're happy we were able to talk. we were able to talk. we were able to talk. >> Appreciate you coming on. Uh shout out >> Appreciate you coming on. Uh shout out >> Appreciate you coming on. Uh shout out the book. the book. the book. >> Uh sure. How Not to Invest right over >> Uh sure. How Not to Invest right over >> Uh sure. How Not to Invest right over there. Hard cover, paperback. You know, there. Hard cover, paperback. You know, there. Hard cover, paperback. You know, the last book was Bailout Nation was 15 the last book was Bailout Nation was 15 the last book was Bailout Nation was 15 years ago. And I just it was a slog. it years ago. And I just it was a slog. it years ago. And I just it was a slog. it was tough to write. This book was just a was tough to write. This book was just a was tough to write. This book was just a joy. It was so much fun to go back over joy. It was so much fun to go back over joy. It was so much fun to go back over all these conversations I've had and all all these conversations I've had and all all these conversations I've had and all this research I've done over the years this research I've done over the years this research I've done over the years and published when no one knew who the and published when no one knew who the and published when no one knew who the hell I was. hell I was. hell I was. >> You're a gem of a guy, man. We >> You're a gem of a guy, man. We >> You're a gem of a guy, man. We appreciate you so much. appreciate you so much. appreciate you so much. >> Well, thanks so much for having me. I I >> Well, thanks so much for having me. I I >> Well, thanks so much for having me. I I I really enjoy this sort of stuff. It's I really enjoy this sort of stuff. It's I really enjoy this sort of stuff. It's what keeps me going every day. what keeps me going every day. what keeps me going every day. >> All right, that's it. That's a pod.